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  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Pulpstar said:

    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    currystar said:

    currystar said:

    I simply do not believe anything the ONS comes up with. Construction in the UK is currently running at about the maximum it can. There is so much work around it is extraordinairy and you simply cannot get skilled labour. The latest hourly rate for Agency electricians in Hampshire is £25 per hour, that is double the rate than it was in 2010, a 100% increase in 8 years. None of this real world stuff is ever reflected in these figures

    On the day when another well-known company has gone bust, can I suggest to you that the economy is behaving differently in different areas? I see no reason to treat the ONS's figures with more than the usual caution.
    House of Fraser failed due to their outdated business model, it was nothing to do with the health of the economy
    Any ideas what Sports Direct have actually paid £90m for?

    Do they own any stores, have that much inventory lying around, or are we going to see some absolutely massive sports shops opening up in town centres?
    Surely they'll have chosen the stores they want to buy, and just buy those ?
    Seems to be more Adidas and Nike in their stores than ever - couldn't find the Mizuno trainer (Or any Mizuno at all) that I was looking for in either their Meadowhall or Drakehouse outlets.
    I have never grasped why people care tuppence about trainer brands. They are not proper shoes, and are all pretty much the same. I have a friend who collects trainers. I do not lie when I say he has more pairs than his wife own shoes. I find that ridiculous.
    I just like to stick with the same shoe to be honest. They don't instantly fall apart and they're correct for my pronation. I did the Sheffield Half back in 2013 in Mizuno Wave Riders, but the sole is too thin to run on those now so I need new ones.
    I own two pairs currently, but they're both too old for running in.
    Fair enough, that I can understand.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited August 2018
    @Anazina Getting trainers right is far more important than regular shoes.
    Edit: I don't really care too much about brand names in most other things to be honest :)
  • currystar said:

    I simply do not believe anything the ONS comes up with. Construction in the UK is currently running at about the maximum it can. There is so much work around it is extraordinairy and you simply cannot get skilled labour. The latest hourly rate for Agency electricians in Hampshire is £25 per hour, that is double the rate than it was in 2010, a 100% increase in 8 years. None of this real world stuff is ever reflected in these figures


    Curiously just talking to my Hampshire plumber (based in Basingstoke)....work coming out of his ears.

    (His view on Brexit, by the way, is "just get on with it now". This seems to be a pretty general consensus amongst people i meet of all descriptions).
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Solid, but not spectacular GDP figures. I think we will see another 0.2% worth of upwards revisions to the final figures in a few months.

    The UK is now growing faster than the Eurozone again... although I would (as always) be careful about extrapolating a single quarter's number.

    Here's a little bugbear of mine: the US gives annualised quarterly growth numbers. So, instead of 0.4%, they'd announce something between 1.4% and 1.8%. This gives a little bit more granularity, as 0.4% covers a fairly wide variety of outcomes. It also leads to stupid Twitter users creating charts that show UK 2Q growth as 0.4% while the US was 4.0%.

    And a little word of caution: the biggest positive in the numbers was a 0.9% construction number. Given rising UK residential inventory numbers, I fear this may turn south.
    UK Construction has performed outstandingly since 2013, with output up by 32% over five years. Presumably, that will tail off eventually.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    MaxPB said:

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    I thought manufacturing was supposed to be the sector best placed to take advantage of the plummeting pound?

    My company does, as will other net exporters.
    That's the key, net exporter. Loads of manufacturing in the UK is a net importer of goods, especially from Europe. We're not at the stage where sterling is so weak that companies will begin to look for domestic suppliers and new companies will sprout up to substitute importation.
    @MaxPB

    Do you have any good numbers for the UK Trade Deficit trend?

    My impression is that it is lower by 30-50% since the referendum and the subsequent fall in the pound, but the numbers are slow to come through.
    Yes, but it will have to be after the weekend, on the way to Cornwall for a wedding. Tux at the ready.
    IIRC the trade deficit was c.£40bn in the year to June 2016, although trade numbers are very prone to revision.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Ms. Anazina, ha, I share your bafflement at such devotion to buying trainers.

    I think in @Pulpstar's case he just wants to replicate a pair he already owns for the only reason one should wear the things – sports. It is the fashion-trainer brigade that I find unfathomable. Trainers are not proper shoes and are actually very bad for the feet if worn regularly, they cause the foot to spread and flatten. They are also ludicrously expensive, if you buy the so-called premium brands.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Q2 figures show is that all those "end of the world, we're all doomed" scenarios painted when Q1 first came out at 0.1% (subsequently upgraded) were just as much nonsense as any triumphalism about solid if not spectacular Q2 figures are.

    The idea that we should determine our long term course on the back of a few tenths of GDP in a very few quarters which are almost certainly wrong anyway is really, really silly. What is happening is that our economy is pottering along with modest growth, high employment, low inflation and a declining deficit. We have been on a pretty similar course since 2010. Trying to find a gotcha in these figures vis a vis Brexit one way or the other is not going to work, it just isn't there.

    On the last thread @another_Richard quoted the Treasury forecasts for growth in the event of a Leave vote. They are every bit as disgraceful as the Scottish Government's White paper on Independence. They should be institutionally ashamed of allowing themselves to be used like that. As I have said before the effect of Brexit will be extremely hard to spot, it just won't make that much difference.

    People who chase monthly/quarterly stats are idiots and will shortly be proven wrong by random noise.
    It's not hard to see I can get paid by the word is it? Very succinctly put.
    Thank you.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited August 2018

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Brom said:

    Love the fact that our 2nd quarter GDP is twice as good as France. If Britain's economy is supposedly in a bad place according to the FBPE lot then France must be on red alert.

    Tbh, it is on red alert. I wouldn't be surprised to see France grow at under 1% this year. There aren't many signs that it's picking up there.
    Hold on aren't both ourselves and France heading for ~ 1%ish thus far whilst the US ~ 4% ?
    The US did (annualised) 2% in 1Q and 4% in 2Q. So, c. 3% for 1H. To get to 4% for the year, they'd need to annualise 5% in the second half, which seems implausible.

    The US is currently benefiting from an extremely expansionary Trump budget. If we cut taxes and increased spending, our GDP growth would grow more too. But the trade off is that we'd have a much larger deficit. (The US deficit is increasing, while ours is shrinking nicely.)
    Reagan showed that deficits don't matter -- Dick Cheney. That may have been a political judgement as much as an economic one.
    Deficits do bloody matter, it’s just that the US economy is big enough and the dollar strong enough that the markets don’t appear to mind as much. Short term politics driven by two year election cycles only exacerbate the problem.

    Total US debt isn’t even a telephone number any more, it’s now $21.3trn (2.13x10^12), 125% of GDP. Given that federal tax receipts are only something like 17% of GDP that’s a massive debt.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Ms. Anazina, indeed, sports trainers that do the job are one thing, collecting them for fashion is just weird.

    Alas, if only people shared my sensible interests it'd be much easier to buy presents for them.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Boris should resign for stealing other peoples jokes / comments?

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/08/letterbox-gate-who-said-it-first-boris-or-the-guardian/
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    O/T: readiing Coughlin's "Churchill's First War" (about his service in tribal wars in Afghanistan) and came to this passage, which illuminates a reason why Boris likes writing about him so much:

    'Getting himself noticed is what really mattered...A fellow-officer recalled how Winston said that he has no intention of serving indefinitely in the army and that he proposed eventually to enter Parliament and that he would one day be Prime Minister."'

    It's not a bad book - Coughlin is friendly to Churchill but not adulatory. Main problem is that the service was quite short, so the first half of the book is about how he worked to get posted there, so not much actually happens, though it's mildly interesting as a piece of personal history, and Coughlin draws interesting parallels to later battles with the Taliban, some of which have a surprisingly direct link in the type of religious opponents and their motivations.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    matt said:

    @Cyclefree One of the many advantages of my freelance lifestyle is that I can visit more bits of the country because I have time, rather than rush everywhere. Next week, I’m planning to visit somewhere in Derbyshire en route to the Lakes. Kedleston Hall maybe? Any recommendations welcome!

    Don't bother with Kedleston. Calke Abbey is materially more interesting and very non-NT in the way in which it has been maintained (ie it has not been polished and sterilised to within an inch of its life). The gardens are not over-formal either.

    Thank you. I've not seen Calke so that will be next on my Round Britain itinerary.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Foxy said:

    John_M said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Q2 figures show is that all those "end of the world, we're all doomed" scenarios painted when Q1 first came out at 0.1% (subsequently upgraded) were just as much nonsense as any triumphalism about solid if not spectacular Q2 figures are.

    The idea that we should determine our long term course on the back of a few tenths of GDP in a very few quarters which are almost certainly wrong anyway is really, really silly. What is happening is that our economy is pottering along with modest growth, high employment, low inflation and a declining deficit. We have been on a pretty similar course since 2010. Trying to find a gotcha in these figures vis a vis Brexit one way or the other is not going to work, it just isn't there.

    On the last thread @another_Richard quoted the Treasury forecasts for growth in the event of a Leave vote. They are every bit as disgraceful as the Scottish Government's White paper on Independence. They should be institutionally ashamed of allowing themselves to be used like that. As I have said before the effect of Brexit will be extremely hard to spot, it just won't make that much difference.

    The next recession will be the 'Brexit recession'. It's the nature of things.
    Or the "Corbyn recession".....

    Make that the "Corbyn slump".
    We could even combine the two...
    London home-owners in negative equity from Corbyn's Brexit Slump - that would be the icing on the cake for most provincial Leavers.....
    It'd be appreciated by a lot of London renters, too.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Foxy said:

    John_M said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Q2 figures show is that all those "end of the world, we're all doomed" scenarios painted when Q1 first came out at 0.1% (subsequently upgraded) were just as much nonsense as any triumphalism about solid if not spectacular Q2 figures are.

    The idea that we should determine our long term course on the back of a few tenths of GDP in a very few quarters which are almost certainly wrong anyway is really, really silly. What is happening is that our economy is pottering along with modest growth, high employment, low inflation and a declining deficit. We have been on a pretty similar course since 2010. Trying to find a gotcha in these figures vis a vis Brexit one way or the other is not going to work, it just isn't there.

    On the last thread @another_Richard quoted the Treasury forecasts for growth in the event of a Leave vote. They are every bit as disgraceful as the Scottish Government's White paper on Independence. They should be institutionally ashamed of allowing themselves to be used like that. As I have said before the effect of Brexit will be extremely hard to spot, it just won't make that much difference.

    The next recession will be the 'Brexit recession'. It's the nature of things.
    Or the "Corbyn recession".....

    Make that the "Corbyn slump".
    We could even combine the two...
    London home-owners in negative equity from Corbyn's Brexit Slump - that would be the icing on the cake for most provincial Leavers.....
    It'd be appreciated by a lot of London renters, too.
    So their rents go up? People really are bloody barmy on this topic.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Sandpit said:

    currystar said:

    currystar said:

    I simply do not believe anything the ONS comes up with. Construction in the UK is currently running at about the maximum it can. There is so much work around it is extraordinairy and you simply cannot get skilled labour. The latest hourly rate for Agency electricians in Hampshire is £25 per hour, that is double the rate than it was in 2010, a 100% increase in 8 years. None of this real world stuff is ever reflected in these figures

    On the day when another well-known company has gone bust, can I suggest to you that the economy is behaving differently in different areas? I see no reason to treat the ONS's figures with more than the usual caution.
    House of Fraser failed due to their outdated business model, it was nothing to do with the health of the economy
    Any ideas what Sports Direct have actually paid £90m for?

    Do they own any stores, have that much inventory lying around, or are we going to see some absolutely massive sports shops opening up in town centres?
    Oxford St is a leased building, and so is the formers Jenners in Edinburgh (leasing from a company owned by the family who sold Jenners). Looking forward to the branch of Sports Direct opening right next to The Ivy Edinburgh.
    He;s bought it kit and caboodle. All stores, all stock. I'd have thought the stock alone would amount to £90m but I guess a lot is owned by the concessionaires. Not sure whether the debt has been transferred in full.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741

    Curiously just talking to my Hampshire plumber (based in Basingstoke)....work coming out of his ears.

    (His view on Brexit, by the way, is "just get on with it now". This seems to be a pretty general consensus amongst people i meet of all descriptions).

    I'd be surprised if plumbers were ever short of work during school holidays or indeed any other time.

    As for his views on "Brexit", it just goes to show how impatient and ignorant some people are. There was and is a prescribed process - we couldn't leave on June 24th 2016 even if people thought we could and should. The earliest we could have left is June 24th this year if Cameron had invoked A50 the day after the Referendum (which I suppose he could have done if he had made any plans for a victory for LEAVE).

    We won't be leaving on March 29th 2019 either - we will be effectively members of the EU until December 31st 2020. Those who advocate this nonsensical "get on with it" approach need to have a word with Theresa May about the process and the length of time it's taking and the necessity of a transition period.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,393
    So here's a challenge:

    How do I convince Wor Lass that we now have to boycott House of Fraser?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    edited August 2018
    Mr. Rentool, the way to get a child to stop doing something isn't to tell them to stop, it's to get them to do something else (preferably something they really want to do).

    You could offer to take her shopping to John Lewis.

    Edited extra bit: not that I'm suggesting your lady friend is a child, of course. Ahem.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080

    Foxy said:

    John_M said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Q2 figures show is that all those "end of the world, we're all doomed" scenarios painted when Q1 first came out at 0.1% (subsequently upgraded) were just as much nonsense as any triumphalism about solid if not spectacular Q2 figures are.

    The idea that we should determine our long term course on the back of a few tenths of GDP in a very few quarters which are almost certainly wrong anyway is really, really silly. What is happening is that our economy is pottering along with modest growth, high employment, low inflation and a declining deficit. We have been on a pretty similar course since 2010. Trying to find a gotcha in these figures vis a vis Brexit one way or the other is not going to work, it just isn't there.

    On the last thread @another_Richard quoted the Treasury forecasts for growth in the event of a Leave vote. They are every bit as disgraceful as the Scottish Government's White paper on Independence. They should be institutionally ashamed of allowing themselves to be used like that. As I have said before the effect of Brexit will be extremely hard to spot, it just won't make that much difference.

    The next recession will be the 'Brexit recession'. It's the nature of things.
    Or the "Corbyn recession".....

    Make that the "Corbyn slump".
    We could even combine the two...
    London home-owners in negative equity from Corbyn's Brexit Slump - that would be the icing on the cake for most provincial Leavers.....
    It'd be appreciated by a lot of London renters, too.
    So their landlords could be forced to sell up, and they would have nowhere to live...
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    scotslass said:

    grabcocque Posts: 983
    11:09AM
    scotslass said:
    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.


    Also I note that the strange rebirth of Tory Scotland seems not to be a blip.


    As far as I can see the last full YouGov Scottish poll was at the start of June this year and was

    SNP 40,Tory 27,Lab 23,Lib 7,Green 2 and UKIP 1. Suggests Labour and Liberals suffering at the hands of the SNP, Tories and Greens. UKIP from 1 to nil.

    You are closer to it (I assume given your name) but is it likely that the putative Green 6% would be 1 or 2 at an election? Has the new Scottish labour leader gained any traction? I'd have thought that the Corbyn way of thinking would meet with some approval in the central belt.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,061
    RoyalBlue said:

    Corbyn wants to leave the EU. Seumas Milne wants to leave the EU. John McDonnell wants to leave the EU.

    These people don’t care what other Labour MPs think. They will never back a second referendum.

    I don't think any of them feel that strongly about it, but they certainly do want to retain control of the Labour party. If there was an irresistable pressure to have a #peoplesvote then they would grudgingly accept it. Brexit is as big or bigger threat to Jezza as it is to Tessa.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    So here's a challenge:

    How do I convince Wor Lass that we now have to boycott House of Fraser?

    Easy

    If she plans to spend for example £100 in HOF give her an extra £100 if she shops in another establishment. She has £200 to spend and is happy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited August 2018
    The fact 9% of 2017 Labour voters and 30% of 2017 LD voters prefer May to Corbyn is good news for her as it means she can offset some of the loss of 2017 Tory Leave voters to UKIP after the Chequers Deal with centrist Labour and LD voters willing to vote for a May led Tories
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    Cyclefree said:

    matt said:

    @Cyclefree One of the many advantages of my freelance lifestyle is that I can visit more bits of the country because I have time, rather than rush everywhere. Next week, I’m planning to visit somewhere in Derbyshire en route to the Lakes. Kedleston Hall maybe? Any recommendations welcome!

    Don't bother with Kedleston. Calke Abbey is materially more interesting and very non-NT in the way in which it has been maintained (ie it has not been polished and sterilised to within an inch of its life). The gardens are not over-formal either.

    Thank you. I've not seen Calke so that will be next on my Round Britain itinerary.
    If you have not been to Calke, visit Calke.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    currystar said:

    I simply do not believe anything the ONS comes up with. Construction in the UK is currently running at about the maximum it can. There is so much work around it is extraordinairy and you simply cannot get skilled labour. The latest hourly rate for Agency electricians in Hampshire is £25 per hour, that is double the rate than it was in 2010, a 100% increase in 8 years. None of this real world stuff is ever reflected in these figures


    Curiously just talking to my Hampshire plumber (based in Basingstoke)....work coming out of his ears.

    (His view on Brexit, by the way, is "just get on with it now". This seems to be a pretty general consensus amongst people i meet of all descriptions).
    If you are a plumber in Hampshire you have never had it so good.
  • So here's a challenge:

    How do I convince Wor Lass that we now have to boycott House of Fraser?

    Tell her they're refusing to accept their own gift cards. That's done it for me.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    scotslass said:

    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

    SNP still well down on the 50% they got in 2015.

    A Boris or Mogg led Tories would be the best way to revive Scottish Labour
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    John_M said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Q2 figures show is that all those "end of the world, we're all doomed" scenarios painted when Q1 first came out at 0.1% (subsequently upgraded) were just as much nonsense as any triumphalism about solid if not spectacular Q2 figures are.

    The idea that we should determine our long term course on the back of a few tenths of GDP in a very few quarters which are almost certainly wrong anyway is really, really silly. What is happening is that our economy is pottering along with modest growth, high employment, low inflation and a declining deficit. We have been on a pretty similar course since 2010. Trying to find a gotcha in these figures vis a vis Brexit one way or the other is not going to work, it just isn't there.

    On the last thread @another_Richard quoted the Treasury forecasts for growth in the event of a Leave vote. They are every bit as disgraceful as the Scottish Government's White paper on Independence. They should be institutionally ashamed of allowing themselves to be used like that. As I have said before the effect of Brexit will be extremely hard to spot, it just won't make that much difference.

    The next recession will be the 'Brexit recession'. It's the nature of things.
    Or the "Corbyn recession".....

    Make that the "Corbyn slump".
    We could even combine the two...
    London home-owners in negative equity from Corbyn's Brexit Slump - that would be the icing on the cake for most provincial Leavers.....
    It'd be appreciated by a lot of London renters, too.
    So their landlords could be forced to sell up, and they would have nowhere to live...
    They would sell up either to renters or to other landlords, so availability of somewhere to live would be unaffected.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

    SNP still well down on the 50% they got in 2015.

    A Boris or Mogg led Tories would be the best way to revive Scottish Labour
    What are you on??
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    HYUFD said:

    The fact 9% of 2017 Labour voters and 30% of 2017 LD voters prefer May to Corbyn is good news for her as it means she can offset some of the loss of 2017 Tory Leave voters to UKIP after the Chequers Deal with centrist Labour and LD voters willing to vote for a May led Tories

    I don`t think the question said anything about being willing to vote Tory, Mr HY.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited August 2018
    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    John_M said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Q2 figures show is that all those "end of the world, we're all doomed" scenarios painted when Q1 first came out at 0.1% (subsequently upgraded) were just as much nonsense as any triumphalism about solid if not spectacular Q2 figures are.

    The idea that we should determine our long term course on the back of a few tenths of GDP in a very few quarters which are almost certainly wrong anyway is really, really silly. What is happening is that our economy is pottering along with modest growth, high employment, low inflation and a declining deficit. We have been on a pretty similar course since 2010. Trying to find a gotcha in these figures vis a vis Brexit one way or the other is not going to work, it just isn't there.

    On the last thread @another_Richard quoted the Treasury forecasts for growth in the event of a Leave vote. They are every bit as disgraceful as the Scottish Government's White paper on Independence. They should be institutionally ashamed of allowing themselves to be used like that. As I have said before the effect of Brexit will be extremely hard to spot, it just won't make that much difference.

    The next recession will be the 'Brexit recession'. It's the nature of things.
    Or the "Corbyn recession".....

    Make that the "Corbyn slump".
    We could even combine the two...
    London home-owners in negative equity from Corbyn's Brexit Slump - that would be the icing on the cake for most provincial Leavers.....
    It'd be appreciated by a lot of London renters, too.
    So their landlords could be forced to sell up, and they would have nowhere to live...
    I can't see negative equity happening generally. Most in danger are those that have bought rabbit warren newbuilds recently I'd say.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    matt said:

    scotslass said:

    grabcocque Posts: 983
    11:09AM
    scotslass said:
    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.


    Also I note that the strange rebirth of Tory Scotland seems not to be a blip.


    As far as I can see the last full YouGov Scottish poll was at the start of June this year and was

    SNP 40,Tory 27,Lab 23,Lib 7,Green 2 and UKIP 1. Suggests Labour and Liberals suffering at the hands of the SNP, Tories and Greens. UKIP from 1 to nil.

    You are closer to it (I assume given your name) but is it likely that the putative Green 6% would be 1 or 2 at an election? Has the new Scottish labour leader gained any traction? I'd have thought that the Corbyn way of thinking would meet with some approval in the central belt.
    Hard to believe but the new regional branch officer is much worse than the last one which should have been almost impossible.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Foxy said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Corbyn wants to leave the EU. Seumas Milne wants to leave the EU. John McDonnell wants to leave the EU.

    These people don’t care what other Labour MPs think. They will never back a second referendum.

    I don't think any of them feel that strongly about it, but they certainly do want to retain control of the Labour party. If there was an irresistable pressure to have a #peoplesvote then they would grudgingly accept it. Brexit is as big or bigger threat to Jezza as it is to Tessa.
    Exactly. There are Tories who want Brexit sufficiently to take the risk, the pain, and the probability of managing through a very difficult period, because they think the outcome they have been frothing about since childhood makes it worthwhile. Whilst almost everyone in Labour would be quite happy if it all just went away; they came into politics to do other things.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited August 2018
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited August 2018
    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    The fact 9% of 2017 Labour voters and 30% of 2017 LD voters prefer May to Corbyn is good news for her as it means she can offset some of the loss of 2017 Tory Leave voters to UKIP after the Chequers Deal with centrist Labour and LD voters willing to vote for a May led Tories

    I don`t think the question said anything about being willing to vote Tory, Mr HY.
    Given UKIP are up 5% on the last general election with Yougov last night and the Tories down only 3% and Labour down 5% clearly some 2017 Labour voters would now vote Tory with Yougov
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    I thought manufacturing was supposed to be the sector best placed to take advantage of the plummeting pound?

    My company does, as will other net exporters.
    That's the key, net exporter. Loads of manufacturing in the UK is a net importer of goods, especially from Europe. We're not at the stage where sterling is so weak that companies will begin to look for domestic suppliers and new companies will sprout up to substitute importation.
    @MaxPB

    Do you have any good numbers for the UK Trade Deficit trend?

    My impression is that it is lower by 30-50% since the referendum and the subsequent fall in the pound, but the numbers are slow to come through.
    Yes, but it will have to be after the weekend, on the way to Cornwall for a wedding. Tux at the ready.
    IIRC the trade deficit was c.£40bn in the year to June 2016, although trade numbers are very prone to revision.
    Cheers. This is a chart as % of GDP. Fall from -6.3% GDP Q3 2016 to 3.4% Q1 2018.

    https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1027880531764097024
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited August 2018
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

    SNP still well down on the 50% they got in 2015.

    A Boris or Mogg led Tories would be the best way to revive Scottish Labour
    What are you on??
    The facts, SNP got 50% in 2015 they are now on 42% ie down 8%.

    Yougov showed the main change of a Boris led Tories in Scotland would be Scottish Labour up to about 30% and the Scottish LDs also up and Scottish Tories back to 2010 and 2015 levels. The SNP would be unchanged

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited August 2018
    Ishmael_Z said:

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    John_M said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Q2 figures show is that all those "end of the world, we're all doomed" scenarios painted when Q1 first came out at 0.1% (subsequently upgraded) were just as much nonsense as any triumphalism about solid if not spectacular Q2 figures are.

    The idea that we should determine our long term course on the back of a few tenths of GDP in a very few quarters which are almost certainly wrong anyway is really, really silly. What is happening is that our economy is pottering along with modest growth, high employment, low inflation and a declining deficit. We have been on a pretty similar course since 2010. Trying to find a gotcha in these figures vis a vis Brexit one way or the other is not going to work, it just isn't there.

    On the last thread @another_Richard quoted the Treasury forecasts for growth in the event of a Leave vote. They are every bit as disgraceful as the Scottish Government's White paper on Independence. They should be institutionally ashamed of allowing themselves to be used like that. As I have said before the effect of Brexit will be extremely hard to spot, it just won't make that much difference.

    The next recession will be the 'Brexit recession'. It's the nature of things.
    Or the "Corbyn recession".....

    Make that the "Corbyn slump".
    We could even combine the two...
    London home-owners in negative equity from Corbyn's Brexit Slump - that would be the icing on the cake for most provincial Leavers.....
    It'd be appreciated by a lot of London renters, too.
    So their landlords could be forced to sell up, and they would have nowhere to live...
    They would sell up either to renters or to other landlords, so availability of somewhere to live would be unaffected.
    The mistake people often make when thinking about the housing market, is the assumption that everyone who is currently renting is willing and able to buy at a lower price, especially in London. Also it’s easily forgotten that as soon as prices start appreciably falling, it will be very difficult to borrow money against property without a substantially bigger deposit. There’s a lot of moving parts and any sudden change will cause problems before solutions.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

    SNP still well down on the 50% they got in 2015.

    A Boris or Mogg led Tories would be the best way to revive Scottish Labour
    What are you on??
    The facts, SNP got 50% in 2015 they are now on 42% ie down 8%.

    Yougov showed the main change of a Boris led Tories in Scotland would be Scottish Labour up to about 30% and the Scottish Tories back to 2010 and 2015 levels. The SNP would be unchanged

    YouGov/Sunday Times - just 6% of the Scottish subsample wanted Boris as next PM, with 4% wanting Mogg. That was out of a choice of only Tories. When asked who they would vote for if Boris was leader, support for the Scottish Tories almost halved.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. P, it's entirely possible that a majority of MPs will seek to reject May's deal because half feel it doesn't go far enough and half feel it goes too far.

    As ever, the spectre of a second referendum can be raised but the question of the options available needs resolving if it's to become a reality.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited August 2018
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

    SNP still well down on the 50% they got in 2015.

    A Boris or Mogg led Tories would be the best way to revive Scottish Labour
    What are you on??
    The facts, SNP got 50% in 2015 they are now on 42% ie down 8%.

    Yougov showed the main change of a Boris led Tories in Scotland would be Scottish Labour up to about 30% and the Scottish Tories back to 2010 and 2015 levels. The SNP would be unchanged

    YouGov/Sunday Times - just 6% of the Scottish subsample wanted Boris as next PM, with 4% wanting Mogg. That was out of a choice of only Tories. When asked who they would vote for if Boris was leader, support for the Scottish Tories almost halved.
    Mainly to Scottish Labour as I said and every other Tory polled also saw the Scottish Tory voteshare fall relative to May but Boris still got the highest Tory voteshare UK wide of any alternative Tory leader polled.

    Do not forget Cameron got only 16% in Scotland in 2010 when the Tories were largest party across the UK and just 14% in Scotland in 2015 when the Tories won a majority across the UK.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

    SNP still well down on the 50% they got in 2015.

    A Boris or Mogg led Tories would be the best way to revive Scottish Labour
    What are you on??
    The facts, SNP got 50% in 2015 they are now on 42% ie down 8%.

    Yougov showed the main change of a Boris led Tories in Scotland would be Scottish Labour up to about 30% and the Scottish Tories back to 2010 and 2015 levels. The SNP would be unchanged

    YouGov/Sunday Times - just 6% of the Scottish subsample wanted Boris as next PM, with 4% wanting Mogg. That was out of a choice of only Tories. When asked who they would vote for if Boris was leader, support for the Scottish Tories almost halved.
    Mainly to Scottish Labour as I said and every other Tory polled also saw the Scottish Tory voteshare fall relative to May but Boris still got the highest Tory voteshare UK wide of any alternative Tory leader polled.

    Do not forget Cameron got only 16% in Scotland in 2010 when the Tories were largest party across the UK and just 14% in Scotland in 2015 when the Tories won a majority across the UK.
    Pity for Johnson backers like you is that so few CON MPs have come out to back the ex-mayor.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Cyclefree said:

    matt said:

    @Cyclefree One of the many advantages of my freelance lifestyle is that I can visit more bits of the country because I have time, rather than rush everywhere. Next week, I’m planning to visit somewhere in Derbyshire en route to the Lakes. Kedleston Hall maybe? Any recommendations welcome!

    Don't bother with Kedleston. Calke Abbey is materially more interesting and very non-NT in the way in which it has been maintained (ie it has not been polished and sterilised to within an inch of its life). The gardens are not over-formal either.

    Thank you. I've not seen Calke so that will be next on my Round Britain itinerary.
    Chatsworth, of course. Haddon Hall worth a vist too. Either allows you to have a proper Bakewell Tart in Bakewell.

    Lathkill Dale is a lovely walk - better than Dovedale, IMHO.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

    SNP still well down on the 50% they got in 2015.

    A Boris or Mogg led Tories would be the best way to revive Scottish Labour
    What are you on??
    The facts, SNP got 50% in 2015 they are now on 42% ie down 8%.

    Yougov showed the main change of a Boris led Tories in Scotland would be Scottish Labour up to about 30% and the Scottish Tories back to 2010 and 2015 levels. The SNP would be unchanged

    YouGov/Sunday Times - just 6% of the Scottish subsample wanted Boris as next PM, with 4% wanting Mogg. That was out of a choice of only Tories. When asked who they would vote for if Boris was leader, support for the Scottish Tories almost halved.
    Mainly to Scottish Labour as I said and every other Tory polled also saw the Scottish Tory voteshare fall relative to May but Boris still got the highest Tory voteshare UK wide of any alternative Tory leader polled.

    Do not forget Cameron got only 16% in Scotland in 2010 when the Tories were largest party across the UK and just 14% in Scotland in 2015 when the Tories won a majority across the UK.
    If you think Boris is the way to convert more Scots to voting Tory, you truly are an idiot.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. B2, also a question mark over how well he'd fly in the north of England.

    Personally, I don't think he's fit to be in the Cabinet, let alone be PM, but there we are.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

    SNP still well down on the 50% they got in 2015.

    A Boris or Mogg led Tories would be the best way to revive Scottish Labour
    What are you on??
    The facts, SNP got 50% in 2015 they are now on 42% ie down 8%.

    Yougov showed the main change of a Boris led Tories in Scotland would be Scottish Labour up to about 30% and the Scottish Tories back to 2010 and 2015 levels. The SNP would be unchanged

    YouGov/Sunday Times - just 6% of the Scottish subsample wanted Boris as next PM, with 4% wanting Mogg. That was out of a choice of only Tories. When asked who they would vote for if Boris was leader, support for the Scottish Tories almost halved.
    Mainly to Scottish Labour as I said and every other Tory polled also saw the Scottish Tory voteshare fall relative to May but Boris still got the highest Tory voteshare UK wide of any alternative Tory leader polled.

    Do not forget Cameron got only 16% in Scotland in 2010 when the Tories were largest party across the UK and just 14% in Scotland in 2015 when the Tories won a majority across the UK.
    If you think Boris is the way to convert more Scots to voting Tory, you truly are an idiot.
    Can you please point out where @HYUFD has said that ?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

    SNP still well down on the 50% they got in 2015.

    A Boris or Mogg led Tories would be the best way to revive Scottish Labour
    What are you on??
    Actually for once HYUFD is correct.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

    SNP still well down on the 50% they got in 2015.

    A Boris or Mogg led Tories would be the best way to revive Scottish Labour
    What are you on??
    The facts, SNP got 50% in 2015 they are now on 42% ie down 8%.

    Yougov showed the main change of a Boris led Tories in Scotland would be Scottish Labour up to about 30% and the Scottish Tories back to 2010 and 2015 levels. The SNP would be unchanged

    YouGov/Sunday Times - just 6% of the Scottish subsample wanted Boris as next PM, with 4% wanting Mogg. That was out of a choice of only Tories. When asked who they would vote for if Boris was leader, support for the Scottish Tories almost halved.
    Mainly to Scottish Labour as I said and every other Tory polled also saw the Scottish Tory voteshare fall relative to May but Boris still got the highest Tory voteshare UK wide of any alternative Tory leader polled.

    Do not forget Cameron got only 16% in Scotland in 2010 when the Tories were largest party across the UK and just 14% in Scotland in 2015 when the Tories won a majority across the UK.
    Pity for Johnson backers like you is that so few CON MPs have come out to back the ex-mayor.
    If he is the only way to save their marginal seats they will.

    However given May is back in the lead over Labour now with Yougov not impossible she could lead the Tories at the next general election again given no alternative Tory leader bar Boris polls better than May v Corbyn
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Mr. B2, also a question mark over how well he'd fly in the north of England.

    Personally, I don't think he's fit to be in the Cabinet, let alone be PM, but there we are.

    It could be said that Mrs May found a good way of dealing with a rival, by giving him a high profile job at which he could visibly fail. Every time he makes a tit of himself a few more MPs decide they’ll vote for anyone else.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

    SNP still well down on the 50% they got in 2015.

    A Boris or Mogg led Tories would be the best way to revive Scottish Labour
    What are you on??
    The facts, SNP got 50% in 2015 they are now on 42% ie down 8%.

    Yougov showed the main change of a Boris led Tories in Scotland would be Scottish Labour up to about 30% and the Scottish Tories back to 2010 and 2015 levels. The SNP would be unchanged

    YouGov/Sunday Times - just 6% of the Scottish subsample wanted Boris as next PM, with 4% wanting Mogg. That was out of a choice of only Tories. When asked who they would vote for if Boris was leader, support for the Scottish Tories almost halved.
    Mainly to Scottish Labour as I said and every other Tory polled also saw the Scottish Tory voteshare fall relative to May but Boris still got the highest Tory voteshare UK wide of any alternative Tory leader polled.

    Do not forget Cameron got only 16% in Scotland in 2010 when the Tories were largest party across the UK and just 14% in Scotland in 2015 when the Tories won a majority across the UK.
    Pity for Johnson backers like you is that so few CON MPs have come out to back the ex-mayor.
    Very early days. Few Tory MPs have come out to back anyone but May so far.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

    SNP still well down on the 50% they got in 2015.

    A Boris or Mogg led Tories would be the best way to revive Scottish Labour
    What are you on??
    The facts, SNP got 50% in 2015 they are now on 42% ie down 8%.

    Yougov showed the main change of a Boris led Tories in Scotland would be Scottish Labour up to about 30% and the Scottish Tories back to 2010 and 2015 levels. The SNP would be unchanged

    YouGov/Sunday Times - just 6% of the Scottish subsample wanted Boris as next PM, with 4% wanting Mogg. That was out of a choice of only Tories. When asked who they would vote for if Boris was leader, support for the Scottish Tories almost halved.
    Mainly to Scottish Labour as I said and every other Tory polled also saw the Scottish Tory voteshare fall relative to May but Boris still got the highest Tory voteshare UK wide of any alternative Tory leader polled.

    Do not forget Cameron got only 16% in Scotland in 2010 when the Tories were largest party across the UK and just 14% in Scotland in 2015 when the Tories won a majority across the UK.
    If you think Boris is the way to convert more Scots to voting Tory, you truly are an idiot.
    You have misread him. He is saying the opposite.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited August 2018
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

    SNP still well down on the 50% they got in 2015.

    A Boris or Mogg led Tories would be the best way to revive Scottish Labour
    What are you on??
    The facts, SNP got 50% in 2015 they are now on 42% ie down 8%.

    Yougov showed the main change of a Boris led Tories in Scotland would be Scottish Labour up to about 30% and the Scottish Tories back to 2010 and 2015 levels. The SNP would be unchanged

    YouGov/Sunday Times - just 6% of the Scottish subsample wanted Boris as next PM, with 4% wanting Mogg. That was out of a choice of only Tories. When asked who they would vote for if Boris was leader, support for the Scottish Tories almost halved.
    Mainly to Scottish Labour as I said and every other Tory polled also saw the Scottish Tory voteshare fall relative to May but Boris still got the highest Tory voteshare UK wide of any alternative Tory leader polled.

    Do not forget Cameron got only 16% in Scotland in 2010 when the Tories were largest party across the UK and just 14% in Scotland in 2015 when the Tories won a majority across the UK.
    If you think Boris is the way to convert more Scots to voting Tory, you truly are an idiot.
    Are you blind?

    You clearly have not read one word of any of my previous posts at all just repasted a prejudged view.

    If you had bothered to read a word of what I said you would have seen I said Boris would take the Tories in Scotland down from May levels back to Cameron levels at a general election with Scottish Labour the beneficiaries but he would do best of the alternatives to May across the UK
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    Why rightly so ?
    He has a history of racially charged comments - this is far from a one off - and if he wishes to speak out as a Conservative MP, it's entirely proper he should abide my the party disciplinary procedures.
    If not, he would have complete freedom of speech as an independent MP.
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    HYUFD Posts: 43,480
    12:25PM
    scotslass said:
    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.


    SNP still well down on the 50% they got in 2015.

    A Boris or Mogg led Tories would be the best way to revive Scottish Labour


    Yes HYUFD but the last election was not in 2015 but last year 2017. In that election the SNP got 37% and the Tories 29% with Labour on 27%..

    So on that basis the Nats are up 5%, the Tories are the same and Labour big losers at minus 8 %. On seats the SNP would go to 45, Labour to 1, Tories to 12 and Libs back to 1.

    If Johnson/Rees Mogg combo then decimated the Tories and resulted in a straight 9 per cent shift from Tory to Labour with SNP unchanged then the NATS would do even better with

    52 seats and Labour and Tory 3 each, Libs still at 1.

    all seat forecasts Electoral Calculus
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

    SNP still well down on the 50% they got in 2015.

    A Boris or Mogg led Tories would be the best way to revive Scottish Labour
    What are you on??
    The facts, SNP got 50% in 2015 they are now on 42% ie down 8%.

    Yougov showed the main change of a Boris led Tories in Scotland would be Scottish Labour up to about 30% and the Scottish Tories back to 2010 and 2015 levels. The SNP would be unchanged

    YouGov/Sunday Times - just 6% of the Scottish subsample wanted Boris as next PM, with 4% wanting Mogg. That was out of a choice of only Tories. When asked who they would vote for if Boris was leader, support for the Scottish Tories almost halved.
    Mainly to Scottish Labour as I said and every other Tory polled also saw the Scottish Tory voteshare fall relative to May but Boris still got the highest Tory voteshare UK wide of any alternative Tory leader polled.

    Do not forget Cameron got only 16% in Scotland in 2010 when the Tories were largest party across the UK and just 14% in Scotland in 2015 when the Tories won a majority across the UK.
    If you think Boris is the way to convert more Scots to voting Tory, you truly are an idiot.
    Are you blind?

    You clearly have not read one word of any of my previous posts at all just repasted a prejudiced view.

    If you had bothered to read a word of what I said you would have seen I said Boris would take the Tories in Scotland down from May levels back to Cameron levels at a general election with Scottish Labour the beneficiaries but he would do best of the alternatives to May across the UK
    Given Boris's views on the union are that "the tail cannot wag the dog", do you think a Boris-led Tory party would be happy to break up the UK?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Congratulations to Illusion Fireworks of Wallingford, who won the British Fireworks Championship at Plymouth last night with a truly jaw-dropping display.

    Make a diary date for the Championships in 2019, which is a Champions of Champions event. THAT is going to be special.....
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

    SNP still well down on the 50% they got in 2015.

    A Boris or Mogg led Tories would be the best way to revive Scottish Labour
    What are you on??
    The facts, SNP got 50% in 2015 they are now on 42% ie down 8%.

    Yougov showed the main change of a Boris led Tories in Scotland would be Scottish Labour up to about 30% and the Scottish Tories back to 2010 and 2015 levels. The SNP would be unchanged

    YouGov/Sunday Times - just 6% of the Scottish subsample wanted Boris as next PM, with 4% wanting Mogg. That was out of a choice of only Tories. When asked who they would vote for if Boris was leader, support for the Scottish Tories almost halved.
    Mainly to Scottish Labour as I said and every other Tory polled also saw the Scottish Tory voteshare fall relative to May but Boris still got the highest Tory voteshare UK wide of any alternative Tory leader polled.

    Do not forget Cameron got only 16% in Scotland in 2010 when the Tories were largest party across the UK and just 14% in Scotland in 2015 when the Tories won a majority across the UK.
    Pity for Johnson backers like you is that so few CON MPs have come out to back the ex-mayor.
    Apart from Andrew Bridgen who was on every radio station and tv programme that could stomach him.

    Not convinced he helped his pal too much, as he just came across as a short-sighted reactionary wanker. In my humble opinion.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    felix said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

    SNP still well down on the 50% they got in 2015.

    A Boris or Mogg led Tories would be the best way to revive Scottish Labour
    What are you on??
    Actually for once HYUFD is correct.
    The question of where Scottish swing voters who voted Tory last time would go to is an interesting one. But I think HYUFD is right that Scottish Independence is probably more toxic for them than Corbyn.
  • trawltrawl Posts: 142
    Totally off topic, any horse punters about?

    Heading down South for a long planned horse racing weekend, Ascot tomorrow & Windsor races on Sunday. Any tips for either meet gratefully received from the PB brains trust
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    felix said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

    SNP still well down on the 50% they got in 2015.

    A Boris or Mogg led Tories would be the best way to revive Scottish Labour
    What are you on??
    Actually for once HYUFD is correct.
    Thankyou
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

    SNP still well down on the 50% they got in 2015.

    A Boris or Mogg led Tories would be the best way to revive Scottish Labour
    What are you on??
    The facts, SNP got 50% in 2015 they are now on 42% ie down 8%.

    Yougov showed the main change of a Boris led Tories in Scotland would be Scottish Labour up to about 30% and the Scottish Tories back to 2010 and 2015 levels. The SNP would be unchanged

    YouGov/Sunday Times - just 6% of the Scottish subsample wanted Boris as next PM, with 4% wanting Mogg. That was out of a choice of only Tories. When asked who they would vote for if Boris was leader, support for the Scottish Tories almost halved.
    Mainly to Scottish Labour as I said and every other Tory polled also saw the Scottish Tory voteshare fall relative to May but Boris still got the highest Tory voteshare UK wide of any alternative Tory leader polled.

    Do not forget Cameron got only 16% in Scotland in 2010 when the Tories were largest party across the UK and just 14% in Scotland in 2015 when the Tories won a majority across the UK.
    If you think Boris is the way to convert more Scots to voting Tory, you truly are an idiot.
    Can you please point out where @HYUFD has said that ?
    Yes that would be helpful
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

    SNP still well down on the 50% they got in 2015.

    A Boris or Mogg led Tories would be the best way to revive Scottish Labour
    What are you on??
    The facts, SNP got 50% in 2015 they are now on 42% ie down 8%.

    Yougov showed the main change of a Boris led Tories in Scotland would be Scottish Labour up to about 30% and the Scottish Tories back to 2010 and 2015 levels. The SNP would be unchanged

    YouGov/Sunday Times - just 6% of the Scottish subsample wanted Boris as next PM, with 4% wanting Mogg. That was out of a choice of only Tories. When asked who they would vote for if Boris was leader, support for the Scottish Tories almost halved.
    Mainly to Scottish Labour as I said and every other Tory polled also saw the Scottish Tory voteshare fall relative to May but Boris still got the highest Tory voteshare UK wide of any alternative Tory leader polled.

    Do not forget Cameron got only 16% in Scotland in 2010 when the Tories were largest party across the UK and just 14% in Scotland in 2015 when the Tories won a majority across the UK.
    If you think Boris is the way to convert more Scots to voting Tory, you truly are an idiot.
    Can you please point out where @HYUFD has said that ?
    Yes, sorry you are right. I guess I have become so used to HY's hysterical bigging up of Boris that I saw a reference that wasn't there.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

    SNP still well down on the 50% they got in 2015.

    A Boris or Mogg led Tories would be the best way to revive Scottish Labour
    What are you on??
    The facts, SNP got 50% in 2015 they are now on 42% ie down 8%.

    Yougov showed the main change of a Boris led Tories in Scotland would be Scottish Labour up to about 30% and the Scottish Tories back to 2010 and 2015 levels. The SNP would be unchanged

    YouGov/Sunday Times - just 6% of the Scottish subsample wanted Boris as next PM, with 4% wanting Mogg. That was out of a choice of only Tories. When asked who they would vote for if Boris was leader, support for the Scottish Tories almost halved.
    Mainly to Scottish Labour as I said and every other Tory polled also saw the Scottish Tory voteshare fall relative to May but Boris still got the highest Tory voteshare UK wide of any alternative Tory leader polled.

    Do not forget Cameron got only 16% in Scotland in 2010 when the Tories were largest party across the UK and just 14% in Scotland in 2015 when the Tories won a majority across the UK.
    If you think Boris is the way to convert more Scots to voting Tory, you truly are an idiot.
    Can you please point out where @HYUFD has said that ?
    Yes, sorry you are right. I guess I have become so used to HY's hysterical bigging up of Boris that I saw a reference that wasn't there.
    Thankyou
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    felix said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

    SNP still well down on the 50% they got in 2015.

    A Boris or Mogg led Tories would be the best way to revive Scottish Labour
    What are you on??
    Actually for once HYUFD is correct.
    The question of where Scottish swing voters who voted Tory last time would go to is an interesting one. But I think HYUFD is right that Scottish Independence is probably more toxic for them than Corbyn.
    Scottish Labour or the LDs if they move
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Anorak said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

    SNP still well down on the 50% they got in 2015.

    A Boris or Mogg led Tories would be the best way to revive Scottish Labour
    What are you on??
    The facts, SNP got 50% in 2015 they are now on 42% ie down 8%.

    Yougov showed the main change of a Boris led Tories in Scotland would be Scottish Labour up to about 30% and the Scottish Tories back to 2010 and 2015 levels. The SNP would be unchanged

    YouGov/Sunday Times - just 6% of the Scottish subsample wanted Boris as next PM, with 4% wanting Mogg. That was out of a choice of only Tories. When asked who they would vote for if Boris was leader, support for the Scottish Tories almost halved.
    Mainly to Scottish Labour as I said and every other Tory polled also saw the Scottish Tory voteshare fall relative to May but Boris still got the highest Tory voteshare UK wide of any alternative Tory leader polled.

    Do not forget Cameron got only 16% in Scotland in 2010 when the Tories were largest party across the UK and just 14% in Scotland in 2015 when the Tories won a majority across the UK.
    Pity for Johnson backers like you is that so few CON MPs have come out to back the ex-mayor.
    Apart from Andrew Bridgen who was on every radio station and tv programme that could stomach him.

    Not convinced he helped his pal too much, as he just came across as a short-sighted reactionary wanker. In my humble opinion.
    You are too humble by half - I'd rate Bridgen as equivalent to the odious Dent-Coad or Williamson in the Labour party.
  • It is madness that the Conservative Party thinking women covering up everything but their eyes so as not to tempt men is part of the "diversity" we should embrace.

    One silver lining to all this is the MCB have shown their true colours in embracing Islamic misogyny.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    scotslass said:

    HYUFD Posts: 43,480
    12:25PM
    scotslass said:
    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.


    SNP still well down on the 50% they got in 2015.

    A Boris or Mogg led Tories would be the best way to revive Scottish Labour


    Yes HYUFD but the last election was not in 2015 but last year 2017. In that election the SNP got 37% and the Tories 29% with Labour on 27%..

    So on that basis the Nats are up 5%, the Tories are the same and Labour big losers at minus 8 %. On seats the SNP would go to 45, Labour to 1, Tories to 12 and Libs back to 1.

    If Johnson/Rees Mogg combo then decimated the Tories and resulted in a straight 9 per cent shift from Tory to Labour with SNP unchanged then the NATS would do even better with

    52 seats and Labour and Tory 3 each, Libs still at 1.

    all seat forecasts Electoral Calculus

    In Tory held Scottish seats I expect there would still be some unionist tactical voting unless like Stirling Labour also had a shot
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    It is madness that the Conservative Party thinking women covering up everything but their eyes so as not to tempt men is part of the "diversity" we should embrace.

    One silver lining to all this is the MCB have shown their true colours in embracing Islamic misogyny.
    They are not saying anything of the sort - simply that the use of intemperate language potentially inflames Muslim opinions achieving the opposite to that intended.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

    SNP still well down on the 50% they got in 2015.

    A Boris or Mogg led Tories would be the best way to revive Scottish Labour
    What are you on??
    The facts, SNP got 50% in 2015 they are now on 42% ie down 8%.

    Yougov showed the main change of a Boris led Tories in Scotland would be Scottish Labour up to about 30% and the Scottish Tories back to 2010 and 2015 levels. The SNP would be unchanged

    YouGov/Sunday Times - just 6% of the Scottish subsample wanted Boris as next PM, with 4% wanting Mogg. That was out of a choice of only Tories. When asked who they would vote for if Boris was leader, support for the Scottish Tories almost halved.
    Mainly to Scottish Labour as I said and every other Tory polled also saw the Scottish Tory voteshare fall relative to May but Boris still got the highest Tory voteshare UK wide of any alternative Tory leader polled.

    Do not forget Cameron got only 16% in Scotland in 2010 when the Tories were largest party across the UK and just 14% in Scotland in 2015 when the Tories won a majority across the UK.
    If you think Boris is the way to convert more Scots to voting Tory, you truly are an idiot.
    Are you blind?

    You clearly have not read one word of any of my previous posts at all just repasted a prejudiced view.

    If you had bothered to read a word of what I said you would have seen I said Boris would take the Tories in Scotland down from May levels back to Cameron levels at a general election with Scottish Labour the beneficiaries but he would do best of the alternatives to May across the UK
    Given Boris's views on the union are that "the tail cannot wag the dog", do you think a Boris-led Tory party would be happy to break up the UK?
    A Boris led Tory Party would not break up the UK given the main movement would be Tory to Scottish Labour not Tory to SNP and that could even help Richard Leonard replace Sturgeon as First Minister in 2021. A Labour First Minister kills off indyref2 talk for a decade or two at least
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Pulpstar said:
    Interesting that the ES uses a stock picture of a pot of coins - that are not coins of the realm...

    In fact, they appear to be Euros. What is the Editor/former Chancellor saying?
  • Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    John_M said:

    DavidL said:

    John_M said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Q2 figures show is that all those "end of the world, we're all doomed" scenarios painted when Q1 first came out at 0.1% (subsequently upgraded) were just as much nonsense as any triumphalism about solid if not spectacular Q2 figures are.

    The idea that we should determine our long term course on the back of a few tenths of GDP in a very few quarters which are almost certainly wrong anyway is really, really silly. What is happening is that our economy is pottering along with modest growth, high employment, low inflation and a declining deficit. We have been on a pretty similar course since 2010. Trying to find a gotcha in these figures vis a vis Brexit one way or the other is not going to work, it just isn't there.

    On the last thread @another_Richard quoted the Treasury forecasts for growth in the event of a Leave vote. They are every bit as disgraceful as the Scottish Government's White paper on Independence. They should be institutionally ashamed of allowing themselves to be used like that. As I have said before the effect of Brexit will be extremely hard to spot, it just won't make that much difference.

    The next recession will be the 'Brexit recession'. It's the nature of things.
    Depends how far away it is. If it doesn't come till 2021 or 2022 that will be a harder sell. But this has already been an above average period of continuous growth, albeit pretty modest growth, so it is possible. Like Max I am somewhat concerned about Europe. It is responding very badly to the tapering off of QE by the ECB. Even post Brexit they will be a major customer and demand may well fall.
    One of the mid-term worries from the IMF Eurozone report (which I've quoted before in terms of their assessment of Brexit impacts on European economies), is that they were forecasting very sluggish growth ( ~1.4%) for the EZ for much of the early '20s. That wouldn't be much help.
    Demographics means that the UK and the Eurozone are following the Japan path to some extent, whether we like it or not. A rising number of retirees being supported by a diminishing number of working age people is going to result in slow productivity growth, and there's not a lot we can do about it.
    Has the secret of eternal youth been discovered in the States ?
    No, they just have kids more. A more family oriented culture in general.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Sandpit said:

    Mr. B2, also a question mark over how well he'd fly in the north of England.
    Personally, I don't think he's fit to be in the Cabinet, let alone be PM, but there we are.

    It could be said that Mrs May found a good way of dealing with a rival, by giving him a high profile job at which he could visibly fail. Every time he makes a tit of himself a few more MPs decide they’ll vote for anyone else.
    Good for Mrs May`s personal career, fair enough. Good for the country, definitely not. Good for the Conservative Party as a whole, I doubt it.

    I really do wish that the political leaders of our country would put their personal ambitions on one side, The national well-being and the national interest should surely come first.
  • HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

    SNP still well down on the 50% they got in 2015.

    A Boris or Mogg led Tories would be the best way to revive Scottish Labour
    What are you on??
    The facts, SNP got 50% in 2015 they are now on 42% ie down 8%.

    Yougov showed the main change of a Boris led Tories in Scotland would be Scottish Labour up to about 30% and the Scottish Tories back to 2010 and 2015 levels. The SNP would be unchanged

    YouGov/Sunday Times - just 6% of the Scottish subsample wanted Boris as next PM, with 4% wanting Mogg. That was out of a choice of only Tories. When asked who they would vote for if Boris was leader, support for the Scottish Tories almost halved.
    Mainly to Scottish Labour as I said and every other Tory polled also saw the Scottish Tory voteshare fall relative to May but Boris still got the highest Tory voteshare UK wide of any alternative Tory leader polled.

    Do not forget Cameron got only 16% in Scotland in 2010 when the Tories were largest party across the UK and just 14% in Scotland in 2015 when the Tories won a majority across the UK.
    Pity for Johnson backers like you is that so few CON MPs have come out to back the ex-mayor.
    They will back whomsoever looks like a winner with the public.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Pulpstar said:
    From that:
    The firm on Friday said it was “possible” the scheme will be sold on to an insurer, which will take on payment of the fund.

    Pension consultant John Ralfe said members should get more than they would if it had fallen into the PPF.

    “They should get more than the PPF compensation because the scheme is well funded but the bad news is they won’t get the full pension promise.


    Does that mean they won't get the pension they would have got if HoF had kept going? I mean, ignoring that there would have been additional payments. Seems odd for a fund in surplus.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    John_M said:

    DavidL said:

    John_M said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Q2 figures show is that all those "end of the world, we're all doomed" scenarios painted when Q1 first came out at 0.1% (subsequently upgraded) were just as much nonsense as any triumphalism about solid if not spectacular Q2 figures are.

    The idea that we should determine our long term course on the back of a few tenths of GDP in a very few quarters which are almost certainly wrong anyway is really, really silly. What is happening is that our economy is pottering along with modest growth, high employment, low inflation and a declining deficit. We have been on a pretty similar course since 2010. Trying to find a gotcha in these figures vis a vis Brexit one way or the other is not going to work, it just isn't there.

    On the last thread @another_Richard quoted the Treasury forecasts for growth in the event of a Leave vote. They are every bit as disgraceful as the Scottish Government's White paper on Independence. They should be institutionally ashamed of allowing themselves to be used like that. As I have said before the effect of Brexit will be extremely hard to spot, it just won't make that much difference.

    The next recession will be the 'Brexit recession'. It's the nature of things.
    Depends how far away it is. If it doesn't come till 2021 or 2022 that will be a harder sell. But this has already been an above average period of continuous growth, albeit pretty modest growth, so it is possible. Like Max I am somewhat concerned about Europe. It is responding very badly to the tapering off of QE by the ECB. Even post Brexit they will be a major customer and demand may well fall.
    One of the mid-term worries from the IMF Eurozone report (which I've quoted before in terms of their assessment of Brexit impacts on European economies), is that they were forecasting very sluggish growth ( ~1.4%) for the EZ for much of the early '20s. That wouldn't be much help.
    Demographics means that the UK and the Eurozone are following the Japan path to some extent, whether we like it or not. A rising number of retirees being supported by a diminishing number of working age people is going to result in slow productivity growth, and there's not a lot we can do about it.
    Has the secret of eternal youth been discovered in the States ?
    No, they just have kids more. A more family oriented culture in general.
    Eh? The US birth rate is at a historic low, below replacement level. Without the arriving Mexicans and it would probably be worse.

    https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/5/22/17376536/fertility-rate-united-states-births-women
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    In Tory held Scottish seats I expect there would still be some unionist tactical voting unless like Stirling Labour also had a shot.

    PERHAPS HYUFD BUT WITH THE NATS OVER 40 PER CENT THAT DOESN'T WORK. THEY WILL CLEAN UP CONSTITUENCIES ANYWAY - JUST AS IN 2011 SCOTTISH ELECTIONS.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,061

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    John_M said:

    DavidL said:

    John_M said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Q2 figures show is that all those "end of the world, we're all doomed" scenarios painted when Q1 first came out at 0.1% (subsequently upgraded) were just as much nonsense as any triumphalism about solid if not spectacular Q2 figures are.

    The idea that we should determine our long term course on the back of a few tenths of GDP in a very few quarters which are almost certainly wrong anyway is really, really silly. What is happening is that our economy is pottering along with modest growth, high employment, low inflation and a declining deficit. We have been on a pretty similar course since 2010. Trying to find a gotcha in these figures vis a vis Brexit one way or the other is not going to work, it just isn't there.

    On the last thread @another_Richard quoted the Treasury forecasts for growth in the event of a Leave vote. They are every bit as disgraceful as the Scottish Government's White paper on Independence. They should be institutionally ashamed of allowing themselves to be used like that. As I have said before the effect of Brexit will be extremely hard to spot, it just won't make that much difference.

    The next recession will be the 'Brexit recession'. It's the nature of things.
    Depends how far away it is. If it doesn't come till 2021 or 2022 that will be a harder sell. But this has already been an above average period of continuous growth, albeit pretty modest growth, so it is possible. Like Max I am somewhat concerned about Europe. It is responding very badly to the tapering off of QE by the ECB. Even post Brexit they will be a major customer and demand may well fall.
    One of the mid-term worries from the IMF Eurozone report (which I've quoted before in terms of their assessment of Brexit impacts on European economies), is that they were forecasting very sluggish growth ( ~1.4%) for the EZ for much of the early '20s. That wouldn't be much help.
    Demographics means that the UK and the Eurozone are following the Japan path to some extent, whether we like it or not. A rising number of retirees being supported by a diminishing number of working age people is going to result in slow productivity growth, and there's not a lot we can do about it.
    Has the secret of eternal youth been discovered in the States ?
    No, they just have kids more. A more family oriented culture in general.
    Also lots of fertile immigrants.
  • IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    John_M said:

    DavidL said:

    John_M said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Q2 figures show is that all those "end of the world, we're all doomed" scenarios painted when Q1 first came out at 0.1% (subsequently upgraded) were just as much nonsense as any triumphalism about solid if not spectacular Q2 figures are.

    On the last thread @another_Richard quoted the Treasury forecasts for growth in the event of a Leave vote. They are every bit as disgraceful as the Scottish Government's White paper on Independence. They should be institutionally ashamed of allowing themselves to be used like that. As I have said before the effect of Brexit will be extremely hard to spot, it just won't make that much difference.

    The next recession will be the 'Brexit recession'. It's the nature of things.
    Depends how far away it is. If it doesn't come till 2021 or 2022 that will be a harder sell. But this has already been an above average period of continuous growth, albeit pretty modest growth, so it is possible. Like Max I am somewhat concerned about Europe. It is responding very badly to the tapering off of QE by the ECB. Even post Brexit they will be a major customer and demand may well fall.
    One of the mid-term worries from the IMF Eurozone report (which I've quoted before in terms of their assessment of Brexit impacts on European economies), is that they were forecasting very sluggish growth ( ~1.4%) for the EZ for much of the early '20s. That wouldn't be much help.
    Demographics means that the UK and the Eurozone are following the Japan path to some extent, whether we like it or not. A rising number of retirees being supported by a diminishing number of working age people is going to result in slow productivity growth, and there's not a lot we can do about it.
    Has the secret of eternal youth been discovered in the States ?
    No, they just have kids more. A more family oriented culture in general.
    Eh? The US birth rate is at a historic low, below replacement level. Without the arriving Mexicans and it would probably be worse.

    https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/5/22/17376536/fertility-rate-united-states-births-women
    Still higher than the UK, particularly among the native born.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Scott_P said:
    Like Donald Trump, he’ll make great copy and will be a never ending source of stories – but, like Trump, he will make a once-respected nation into a pitiful laughing stock. No joke really.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    edited August 2018
    HYUFD said:



    If he is the only way to save their marginal seats they will.

    However given May is back in the lead over Labour now with Yougov not impossible she could lead the Tories at the next general election again given no alternative Tory leader bar Boris polls better than May v Corbyn

    The only way May leads the Tories into the next election is if the final Brexit deal gets a generally favourable "could have been a lot of worse, I suppose" from the electorate. Given that both sets of Remain and Leave headbangers are intent on bigging up the notion that May will come up with the worst possible outcome - and that is reflected in the polling on the dissatisfaction with the way Brexit is being handled - then an "OK Brexit" where the planes carry on flying, the food doesn't run out, the sickly don't die from lack of medicines and we decide who gets into our borders might be a plausible result for May to stay.

    But MPs would still go into any election fronted by May with extreme trepidation. Fucking up once should be all the chances you get when it comes to General Elections. So they will still be looking at the options. Listening to constituents. Studying the polling.

    And plotting.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    edited August 2018

    scotslass said:

    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

    Also I note that the strange rebirth of Tory Scotland seems not to be a blip.
    It is just a subsample, but hitherto UKIP & sundry nasties have transferred direct to the SCons, some to elected positions. To get to the next 'Ruth Davidson is the next First Minister of Scotland' stage (© numpties everywhere), Ruth needs to get more centrist Unionists & pretendy progressives on board which leaves her in somewhat of a bind. Let's see how the burka = crucifix comment goes down with the UKIP/LOL/SDL/BNP brigade.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Scott_P said:
    Come on now, be honest, how many people are looking up what 'maladroit' means
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763

    So here's a challenge:

    How do I convince Wor Lass that we now have to boycott House of Fraser?

    Tell her they're refusing to accept their own gift cards. That's done it for me.

    My brother managed to achieve that 3 years in a row with gifts for my kids. Each year they would get a gift card. Each year the company concerned would go into administration early January and refuse to honour them. It became a standing family joke with my 14 year old wanting to short whatever he bought (he's a bit like that).
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Like Donald Trump, he’ll make great copy and will be a never ending source of stories – but, like Trump, he will make a once-respected nation into a pitiful laughing stock. No joke really.
    It may take longer than a year. The mechanics of replacing Prime Minister require either the Prime Minister to resign (and she shows no particular signs of wishing to do that) or for a majority of Conservative MPs to no-confidence her. While the prospect of Boris Johnson winning any subsequent contest remains realistic, it seems likely that a majority of Conservative MPs will not countenance that.

    But right now he can't be discounted, no matter how unfit he is for the office.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Like Donald Trump, he’ll make great copy and will be a never ending source of stories – but, like Trump, he will make a once-respected nation into a pitiful laughing stock. No joke really.
    It may take longer than a year. The mechanics of replacing Prime Minister require either the Prime Minister to resign (and she shows no particular signs of wishing to do that) or for a majority of Conservative MPs to no-confidence her. While the prospect of Boris Johnson winning any subsequent contest remains realistic, it seems likely that a majority of Conservative MPs will not countenance that.

    But right now he can't be discounted, no matter how unfit he is for the office.
    The significance of the past week is that it's now clear Boris is as toxic among Conservative MPs as a potential leader as Rees-Mogg would be. But until he can be discounted, no other serious contender would risk moving against May, so she's surely safe for now.
  • scotslass said:

    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

    Also I note that the strange rebirth of Tory Scotland seems not to be a blip.
    It is just a subsample, but hitherto UKIP & sundry nasties have transferred direct to the SCons, some to elected positions. To get to the next 'Ruth Davidson is the next First Minister of Scotland' stage (© numpties everywhere), Ruth needs to get more centrist Unionists & pretendy progressives on board which leaves her in somewhat of a bind. Let's see how the burka = crucifix comment goes down with the UKIP/LOL/SDL/BNP brigade.
    Speaking as an atheist with little regard for the crucifix ...

    ... burka = crucifix should go down like a bag of cold sick to anyone with more than 2 brain cells to rub together.

    That's like common cold = HIV
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763
    O/t this morning seems a very good example of why Stokes should not have given evidence: https://news.sky.com/story/live-ben-stokes-to-give-more-evidence-in-affray-trial-11468295

    It's really hard to see this going well for him.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,742
    I was thinking about Earl Peel (brother of Robert Peel, PM 1834/35 and 1841-46) of whom it was said, 'you will find him very reasonable on most subjects until someone says "household suffrage," whereat his eye lights up with insanity.'

    I won't bother to explain why I was thinking of him...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    John_M said:

    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    currystar said:

    currystar said:

    I simply do not believe anything the ONS comes up with. Construction in the UK is currently running at about the maximum it can. There is so much work around it is extraordinairy and you simply cannot get skilled labour. The latest hourly rate for Agency electricians in Hampshire is £25 per hour, that is double the rate than it was in 2010, a 100% increase in 8 years. None of this real world stuff is ever reflected in these figures

    On the day when another well-known company has gone bust, can I suggest to you that the economy is behaving differently in different areas? I see no reason to treat the ONS's figures with more than the usual caution.
    House of Fraser failed due to their outdated business model, it was nothing to do with the health of the economy
    Any ideas what Sports Direct have actually paid £90m for?

    Do they own any stores, have that much inventory lying around, or are we going to see some absolutely massive sports shops opening up in town centres?
    Surely they'll have chosen the stores they want to buy, and just buy those ?
    Seems to be more Adidas and Nike in their stores than ever - couldn't find the Mizuno trainer (Or any Mizuno at all) that I was looking for in either their Meadowhall or Drakehouse outlets.
    I have never grasped why people care tuppence about trainer brands. They are not proper shoes, and are all pretty much the same. I have a friend who collects trainers. I do not lie when I say he has more pairs than his wife own shoes. I find that ridiculous.
    One of the advantages of being in my generation is that we're less prone to the lure of brand names, particularly when we're talking about plimsolls.
    Not even Green Flash?
  • DavidL said:

    O/t this morning seems a very good example of why Stokes should not have given evidence: https://news.sky.com/story/live-ben-stokes-to-give-more-evidence-in-affray-trial-11468295

    It's really hard to see this going well for him.

    Is it just me but I can't see any text there at all other than the quote which isn't attributed. Struggling to see why that's evidence he should not have given evidence.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    Scott_P said:
    Come on now, be honest, how many people are looking up what 'maladroit' means
    Surely it should be malagauche?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    DavidL said:

    What the Q2 figures show is that all those "end of the world, we're all doomed" scenarios painted when Q1 first came out at 0.1% (subsequently upgraded) were just as much nonsense as any triumphalism about solid if not spectacular Q2 figures are.

    I think have might have mentioned a few times over the years that economic forecasting is a load of bollocks.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    edited August 2018
    https://unherd.com/2018/08/questioning-misogynistic-veil-isnt-racist/?utm_source=UnHerd+Today&utm_campaign=778f5e1108-May1_Subject-Test_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_79fd0df946-778f5e1108-34706857

    On topic, I would almost be tempted to join the Tory party for the specific purpose ONLY of NOT VOTING FOR BORIS AS LEADER. The man is an arse whom I wouldn't trust to water my garden if he had a hose in his hand and the tap switched on.

    And in the spirit of his insulting comments about what women look like may I also say that he looks as if he's dressed in the dark, is unpleasantly overweight and hasn't used a hairbrush in years. In fact he looks like an overboiled potato.

    And now - cocoa infused beer.

    TTFN
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Like Donald Trump, he’ll make great copy and will be a never ending source of stories – but, like Trump, he will make a once-respected nation into a pitiful laughing stock. No joke really.
    It may take longer than a year. The mechanics of replacing Prime Minister require either the Prime Minister to resign (and she shows no particular signs of wishing to do that) or for a majority of Conservative MPs to no-confidence her. While the prospect of Boris Johnson winning any subsequent contest remains realistic, it seems likely that a majority of Conservative MPs will not countenance that.

    But right now he can't be discounted, no matter how unfit he is for the office.
    The significance of the past week is that it's now clear Boris is as toxic among Conservative MPs as a potential leader as Rees-Mogg would be. But until he can be discounted, no other serious contender would risk moving against May, so she's surely safe for now.
    People were so busy getting upset with my characterisation of the unjustifiable priorities of a majority of Leavers that they missed this direct deduction that I made of the consequences of those unjustifiable priorities.
This discussion has been closed.