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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Answering a poll question is NOT the same as having an opinion

SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited August 10 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Answering a poll question is NOT the same as having an opinion

Unsurprising titbit in here – an MP thinks the public have a view on ‘Chequers’. No. Answering a poll question. is not the same as having an actual opinion. https://t.co/IBS1uB1uW0

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 3,982
    First
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,715
    Second, like Leave in the #peoplesvote

    :)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,439
    Looks like the Indians have dug themselves out of a hole .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,151
    Foxy said:

    Second, like Leave in the #peoplesvote

    :)

    4th like the likelihood of a People's Vote backing next PM as May, Boris and Corbyn all oppose one
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,857
    Fifth like Boris
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,151
    Most Remain voters have a view on the Chequers Deal that it is better than No Deal but not as good as Remain or EEA, most Leave voters have a view on the Chequers Deal that it is better than Remain or EEA but not as good as No Deal.

    It is a classic fudged compromise but the only one which can bridge some of the gap between Remainers and Leavers at the moment
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,687
    HYUFD said:

    Most Remain voters have a view on the Chequers Deal that it is better than No Deal but not as good as Remain or EEA, most Leave voters have a view on the Chequers Deal that it is better than Remain or EEA but not as good as No Deal.

    It is a classic fudged compromise but the only one which can bridge some of the gap between Remainers and Leavers at the moment

    Doesn't seem to be doing much bridging as far as I can see.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,687
    I do take the point, though my notoriously unreliable gut says people don't like compromises, so the initial or superficial reaction of anger or at least dislike won't be too far from the truth.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,687
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

    SNP still well down on the 50% they got in 2015.

    A Boris or Mogg led Tories would be the best way to revive Scottish Labour
    What are you on??
    Actually for once HYUFD is correct.
    The question of where Scottish swing voters who voted Tory last time would go to is an interesting one. But I think HYUFD is right that Scottish Independence is probably more toxic for them than Corbyn.
    Scottish Labour or the LDs if they move
    SCon voters are Brexiters. they aren't going to the LDs
    The way the vote has shifted about dramatically in Scotland I feel, as an outsider, than I have no idea what they will do or if it will make sense!

    They keep it interesting up there thesedays, I'll grant that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,687

    @DayTripper The reason why JRM and Boris are being considered for the Tory leadership among Conservative members in these polls, as well as Corbyn’s election, is because these people represent the worldview/ideology of said members. And, that ‘sensible’ Third Way style centrism has lost its popularity among electorates. Cable got picked partly because the LDs don’t have many great options. The same for UKIP,

    If Boris gets in the final two I think he wins easily.

    What will be hilarious is if he doesn't even stand again (I rate this as very unlikely, even having been surprised last time - his actions making a play for the leadership are simply too blatant not to do it this time)..

    If he is not in the final two, and there is not some other hard leaver who for some reason got in ahead of him, I would assume a lot of anger.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,687
    edited August 10
    Foxy said:

    Second, like Leave in the #peoplesvote

    :)

    Now now, you know the people'svote will be conducted under AV, so the option coming second in the first round might still come out on top!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,139
    HYUFD said:

    Most Remain voters have a view on the Chequers Deal that it is better than No Deal but not as good as Remain or EEA, most Leave voters have a view on the Chequers Deal that it is better than Remain or EEA but not as good as No Deal.

    It is a classic fudged compromise but the only one which can bridge some of the gap between Remainers and Leavers at the moment

    Boris thinks Remain is better than Chequers, and he's not the only Leaver to think so. Brexit views cannot be placed on a neat continuum.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,715
    HYUFD said:

    Most Remain voters have a view on the Chequers Deal that it is better than No Deal but not as good as Remain or EEA, most Leave voters have a view on the Chequers Deal that it is better than Remain or EEA but not as good as No Deal.

    It is a classic fudged compromise but the only one which can bridge some of the gap between Remainers and Leavers at the moment

    But it is at present just an internal fudge between hostile Tory factions, unlikely to survive contact with reality.

    Limbo Brexit is what happens next.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,079
    edited August 10
    kle4 said:

    @DayTripper The reason why JRM and Boris are being considered for the Tory leadership among Conservative members in these polls, as well as Corbyn’s election, is because these people represent the worldview/ideology of said members. And, that ‘sensible’ Third Way style centrism has lost its popularity among electorates. Cable got picked partly because the LDs don’t have many great options. The same for UKIP,

    If Boris gets in the final two I think he wins easily.

    What will be hilarious is if he doesn't even stand again (I rate this as very unlikely, even having been surprised last time - his actions making a play for the leadership are simply too blatant not to do it this time)..

    If he is not in the final two, and there is not some other hard leaver who for some reason got in ahead of him, I would assume a lot of anger.
    I'm still clinging, limpet-like, to the received wisdom that the favourite never wins a Tory leadship contest. As comfort blankets go, it's not very warming.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 16,954
    Just topped up further on Boris.
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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,989
    Wow, big well done to the Lord’s groundsmen, I went for dinner with a flooded field on the screen and a couple of hours later they’re playing on it!
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,079
    Sandpit said:

    Wow, big well done to the Lord’s groundsmen, I went for dinner with a flooded field on the screen and a couple of hours later they’re playing on it!

    Non-stop fireworks on the pitch. Amazing scenes.*

    * extreme sarcasm.
  • FPT

    @DayTripper The reason why JRM and Boris are being considered for the Tory leadership among Conservative members in these polls, as well as Corbyn’s election, is because these people represent the worldview/ideology of said members. And, that ‘sensible’ Third Way style centrism has lost its popularity among electorates. Cable got picked partly because the LDs don’t have many great options. The same for UKIP,

    Well, OK. It may well reflect the worldview of the membership, but that doesn’t address my point which is that it would seem that that worldview is apparently the result of a bypass filter being installed to ignore the manifest unsuitability of these various “leaders”. I mean, come on, after Boris’ stint as Foreign Secretary, how can anybody continue to believe he has the capability to run a whelk stall, let alone the country? Corbyn’s management of the Labour Party doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in him being able to hold that lot together, let alone the wider polity. And I suppose if I wanted ability to molest badgers or to get somebody to clean behind the fridge, some of UKIP’s past choices might have been right up my street, but I don’t think those are top of the list of what the country needs right now.

    It’s not exactly a new phenomenon, either; vide Iain Duncan Smith, Michael Foot, William Hague, Ed Milliband, etc. And look what a success those all turned out to be. The party members who elected them really had their fingers on the pulse of appeal to the wider electorate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,151

    HYUFD said:

    Most Remain voters have a view on the Chequers Deal that it is better than No Deal but not as good as Remain or EEA, most Leave voters have a view on the Chequers Deal that it is better than Remain or EEA but not as good as No Deal.

    It is a classic fudged compromise but the only one which can bridge some of the gap between Remainers and Leavers at the moment

    Boris thinks Remain is better than Chequers, and he's not the only Leaver to think so. Brexit views cannot be placed on a neat continuum.
    He has not explicitly said he would back remaining in the EU over Chequers he has said he would back No Deal over Chequers
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,139
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most Remain voters have a view on the Chequers Deal that it is better than No Deal but not as good as Remain or EEA, most Leave voters have a view on the Chequers Deal that it is better than Remain or EEA but not as good as No Deal.

    It is a classic fudged compromise but the only one which can bridge some of the gap between Remainers and Leavers at the moment

    Boris thinks Remain is better than Chequers, and he's not the only Leaver to think so. Brexit views cannot be placed on a neat continuum.
    He has not explicitly said he would back remaining in the EU over Chequers he has said he would back No Deal over Chequers
    It's not a question about what he would back (which is about his own self-interest) but about what he judges as a better option for the country.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,126

    FPT

    @DayTripper The reason why JRM and Boris are being considered for the Tory leadership among Conservative members in these polls, as well as Corbyn’s election, is because these people represent the worldview/ideology of said members. And, that ‘sensible’ Third Way style centrism has lost its popularity among electorates. Cable got picked partly because the LDs don’t have many great options. The same for UKIP,

    Well, OK. It may well reflect the worldview of the membership, but that doesn’t address my point which is that it would seem that that worldview is apparently the result of a bypass filter being installed to ignore the manifest unsuitability of these various “leaders”. I mean, come on, after Boris’ stint as Foreign Secretary, how can anybody continue to believe he has the capability to run a whelk stall, let alone the country? Corbyn’s management of the Labour Party doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in him being able to hold that lot together, let alone the wider polity. And I suppose if I wanted ability to molest badgers or to get somebody to clean behind the fridge, some of UKIP’s past choices might have been right up my street, but I don’t think those are top of the list of what the country needs right now.

    It’s not exactly a new phenomenon, either; vide Iain Duncan Smith, Michael Foot, William Hague, Ed Milliband, etc. And look what a success those all turned out to be. The party members who elected them really had their fingers on the pulse of appeal to the wider electorate.
    It's a truism that members of political parties, by and large, don't talk to people outside their personal sphere. "Who doesn't like Boris?", say the members - to each other.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,151
    edited August 10
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most Remain voters have a view on the Chequers Deal that it is better than No Deal but not as good as Remain or EEA, most Leave voters have a view on the Chequers Deal that it is better than Remain or EEA but not as good as No Deal.

    It is a classic fudged compromise but the only one which can bridge some of the gap between Remainers and Leavers at the moment

    But it is at present just an internal fudge between hostile Tory factions, unlikely to survive contact with reality.

    Limbo Brexit is what happens next.
    Labour is just as divided, Corbyn backs fudged Brexit much as May does, Field and Stringer and Hoey and Mann would back No Deal like Mogg and Boris and IDS, Umunna and Bradshaw and Kinnock etc would back EEA or a second EU referendum like Soubry, Grieve or Wollaston.

    Indeed arguably Labour is more divided on Brexit than the Tories e.g. most Tory voters and Tory held seats voted Leave but while most Labour voters voted Remain most Labour seats voted Leave once you move away from the inner city Labour seats where Remain won by huge margins
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,989
    49/4 :)
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,079
    Anorak said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, big well done to the Lord’s groundsmen, I went for dinner with a flooded field on the screen and a couple of hours later they’re playing on it!

    Non-stop fireworks on the pitch. Amazing scenes.*

    * extreme sarcasm.
    Kohli gone. Layers of the draw: Take Hope!!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,989
    edited August 10
    John_M said:

    FPT

    @DayTripper The reason why JRM and Boris are being considered for the Tory leadership among Conservative members in these polls, as well as Corbyn’s election, is because these people represent the worldview/ideology of said members. And, that ‘sensible’ Third Way style centrism has lost its popularity among electorates. Cable got picked partly because the LDs don’t have many great options. The same for UKIP,

    Well, OK. It may well reflect the worldview of the membership, but that doesn’t address my point which is that it would seem that that worldview is apparently the result of a bypass filter being installed to ignore the manifest unsuitability of these various “leaders”. I mean, come on, after Boris’ stint as Foreign Secretary, how can anybody continue to believe he has the capability to run a whelk stall, let alone the country? Corbyn’s management of the Labour Party doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in him being able to hold that lot together, let alone the wider polity. And I suppose if I wanted ability to molest badgers or to get somebody to clean behind the fridge, some of UKIP’s past choices might have been right up my street, but I don’t think those are top of the list of what the country needs right now.

    It’s not exactly a new phenomenon, either; vide Iain Duncan Smith, Michael Foot, William Hague, Ed Milliband, etc. And look what a success those all turned out to be. The party members who elected them really had their fingers on the pulse of appeal to the wider electorate.
    It's a truism that members of political parties, by and large, don't talk to people outside their personal sphere. "Who doesn't like Boris?", say the members - to each other.
    Isn’t that called Twitter?

    People who like Boris talking to other people who like Boris.
    People who like Jeremy talking to other people who like Jeremy (or shouting at those who don’t).
    People who love the EU talking to others who love the EU, and think that saying it’s too hard to leave will persuade those who voted leave to reconsider.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,151
    edited August 10

    FPT

    @DayTripper The reason why JRM and Boris are being considered for the Tory leadership among Conservative members in these polls, as well as Corbyn’s election, is because these people represent the worldview/ideology of said members. And, that ‘sensible’ Third Way style centrism has lost its popularity among electorates. Cable got picked partly because the LDs don’t have many great options. The same for UKIP,

    Well, OK. It may well reflect the worldview of the membership, but that doesn’t address my point which is that it would seem that that worldview is apparently the result of a bypass filter being installed to ignore the manifest unsuitability of these various “leaders”. I mean, come on, after Boris’ stint as Foreign Secretary, how can anybody continue to believe he has the capability to run a whelk stall, let alone the country? Corbyn’s management of the Labour Party doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in him being able to hold that lot together, let alone the wider polity. And I suppose if I wanted ability to molest badgers or to get somebody to clean behind the fridge, some of UKIP’s past choices might have been right up my street, but I don’t think those are top of the list of what the country needs right now.

    It’s not exactly a new phenomenon, either; vide Iain Duncan Smith, Michael Foot, William Hague, Ed Milliband, etc. And look what a success those all turned out to be. The party members who elected them really had their fingers on the pulse of appeal to the wider electorate.
    Tory party members elected none of those bar IDS and they also elected Cameron. Labour members voted for David Miliband not Ed Miliband who won due to the unions.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,828
    John_M said:

    FPT

    @DayTripper The reason why JRM and Boris are being considered for the Tory leadership among Conservative members in these polls, as well as Corbyn’s election, is because these people represent the worldview/ideology of said members. And, that ‘sensible’ Third Way style centrism has lost its popularity among electorates. Cable got picked partly because the LDs don’t have many great options. The same for UKIP,

    Well, OK. It may well reflect the worldview of the membership, but that doesn’t address my point which is that it would seem that that worldview is apparently the result of a bypass filter being installed to ignore the manifest unsuitability of these various “leaders”. I mean, come on, after Boris’ stint as Foreign Secretary, how can anybody continue to believe he has the capability to run a whelk stall, let alone the country? Corbyn’s management of the Labour Party doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in him being able to hold that lot together, let alone the wider polity. And I suppose if I wanted ability to molest badgers or to get somebody to clean behind the fridge, some of UKIP’s past choices might have been right up my street, but I don’t think those are top of the list of what the country needs right now.

    It’s not exactly a new phenomenon, either; vide Iain Duncan Smith, Michael Foot, William Hague, Ed Milliband, etc. And look what a success those all turned out to be. The party members who elected them really had their fingers on the pulse of appeal to the wider electorate.
    It's a truism that members of political parties, by and large, don't talk to people outside their personal sphere. "Who doesn't like Boris?", say the members - to each other.
    Boris is definitely showbiz. When he visits somewhere either to speak or just visit there is a tangible buzz in the crowd before he arrives and when speaking there is absolute rapt attention and silence.

    Wouldn't want him running the country, mind.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,989
    edited August 10
    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, big well done to the Lord’s groundsmen, I went for dinner with a flooded field on the screen and a couple of hours later they’re playing on it!

    Non-stop fireworks on the pitch. Amazing scenes.*

    * extreme sarcasm.
    Kohli gone. Layers of the draw: Take Hope!!
    Don’t start me! As an enthusiastic layer of the draw until about two hours ago when I piled onto it at odds-on, I won’t be a happy bunny if India conspire to lose this.

    And as I write another one goes caught in the slips. 61/5.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,079
    HYUFD said:

    Tory party members elected none of those bar IDS and they also elected Cameron. Labour members voted for David Miliband not Ed Miliband who won due to the unions.

    *looks at Labour Party*

    *remembers the membership voted for David Miliband*

    *looks at Labour Party again*

    *shakes head with disbelief*
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 19,268
    "Answering a poll question is NOT the same as having an opinion"

    Quite so.

    That brought a wry smile, in view of some of recent discussions we've had here...
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,079
    Woakes on fire.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 17,420
    62 for 6
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,141
    Sandpit said:

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, big well done to the Lord’s groundsmen, I went for dinner with a flooded field on the screen and a couple of hours later they’re playing on it!

    Non-stop fireworks on the pitch. Amazing scenes.*

    * extreme sarcasm.
    Kohli gone. Layers of the draw: Take Hope!!
    Don’t start me! As an enthusiastic layer of the draw until about two hours ago when I piled onto it at odds-on, I won’t be a happy bunny if India conspire to lose this.

    And as I write another one goes caught in the slips. 61/5.
    Yesterday time was called at around 4:30. This time they've started at 5:10 odd. How on earth are you supposed to bet when inspections are so inconsistent ?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,079
    edited August 10
    62/6 @Sandpit looking increasingly queasy.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,141
    Anorak said:

    62/6 @Sandpit looking increasingly queasy.

    Nah tbh it's the inconsistency in the inspection timing etc that's annoying
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,079
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, big well done to the Lord’s groundsmen, I went for dinner with a flooded field on the screen and a couple of hours later they’re playing on it!

    Non-stop fireworks on the pitch. Amazing scenes.*

    * extreme sarcasm.
    Kohli gone. Layers of the draw: Take Hope!!
    Don’t start me! As an enthusiastic layer of the draw until about two hours ago when I piled onto it at odds-on, I won’t be a happy bunny if India conspire to lose this.

    And as I write another one goes caught in the slips. 61/5.
    Yesterday time was called at around 4:30. This time they've started at 5:10 odd. How on earth are you supposed to bet when inspections are so inconsistent ?
    They look at the weather forecast as well as poking the wicket.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,801
    I see that initial Q2 business investment data shows it to be at an all time high.

    I wonder if that will be so eagerly reported by the twatter crowd who spouted fake news about it in recent months ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,989
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, big well done to the Lord’s groundsmen, I went for dinner with a flooded field on the screen and a couple of hours later they’re playing on it!

    Non-stop fireworks on the pitch. Amazing scenes.*

    * extreme sarcasm.
    Kohli gone. Layers of the draw: Take Hope!!
    Don’t start me! As an enthusiastic layer of the draw until about two hours ago when I piled onto it at odds-on, I won’t be a happy bunny if India conspire to lose this.

    And as I write another one goes caught in the slips. 61/5.
    Yesterday time was called at around 4:30. This time they've started at 5:10 odd. How on earth are you supposed to bet when inspections are so inconsistent ?
    I can only guess that they thought they could get enough overs in tonight to avoid having to hand out 28,000 more refunds. No other reason for it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,989
    edited August 10
    Anorak said:

    62/6 @Sandpit looking increasingly queasy.

    A little annoying, but what can one do? Maybe a little rain dance.

    At least I wasn’t one of probably several thousand who sat all day in the rain and left early expecting my money back.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,079
    Sandpit said:

    Anorak said:

    62/6 @Sandpit looking increasingly queasy.

    A little annoying, but what can one do? Maybe I’ll do a little rain dance.
    I still think you were right to cash out. Forecast is crappy for next 3 days.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,801
    So does the continuation of Stuart Broad's England career rely on Ben Stokes being found guilty ?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,379
    To a point. I agree high “don't know” responses are instructive. I agree that poll responses on very detailed points of policy like the Chequers proposal that few will have read and fewer will have understood are to be treated with caution.

    But we can conclude, for example, that at a minimum the public do not understand the rationale of the Chequers proposal and do not trust Theresa May to have a rationale that they agree with.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,151
    Anorak said:
    Just 16% of voters back complete freedom of EU citizens to come to the UK, 54% say they should only be able to come with a job offer or place to study, 18% want immigration from EU citizens sharply reduced regardless
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,139
    Anorak said:
    That’s probably the most significant Brexit poll so far. It contains actual opinions.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 4,317
    Christmas has come early - won the big sprint at Tipperary this evening. Shock in the juvenile maiden at Newmarket with a 25/1 Red Bravo beating some highly-thought types.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,401
    Sandpit said:

    Anorak said:

    62/6 @Sandpit looking increasingly queasy.

    A little annoying, but what can one do? Maybe a little rain dance.

    At least I wasn’t one of probably several thousand who sat all day in the rain and left early expecting my money back.
    It’s astonishing that there has been so much play when you saw that pond earlier. I was convinced that was it for the day.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 4,317
    Nayef Road has just hosed up in the 6.50 at Haydock.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,141
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Anorak said:

    62/6 @Sandpit looking increasingly queasy.

    A little annoying, but what can one do? Maybe a little rain dance.

    At least I wasn’t one of probably several thousand who sat all day in the rain and left early expecting my money back.
    It’s astonishing that there has been so much play when you saw that pond earlier. I was convinced that was it for the day.
    Why did we listen to you D:
    One day I'll learn :p
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 2,629

    To a point. I agree high “don't know” responses are instructive. I agree that poll responses on very detailed points of policy like the Chequers proposal that few will have read and fewer will have understood are to be treated with caution.

    But we can conclude, for example, that at a minimum the public do not understand the rationale of the Chequers proposal and do not trust Theresa May to have a rationale that they agree with.

    Yeah but there are questions that are just impossible to answer

    All murderers should be executed
    All murderers should be released
    Don't know

    I do know, but there's no box to tick.

    You know already that the public don't understand the rationale of the Chequers' plan. I can't imagine anyone thinks its anything other than an uncomfortable compromise. Mrs May is perhaps trusted (a little) to make a decent compromise.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 4,317
    Had a small bet on Showu in the 7.00 at Chelmsford - got on at 4s which was nice. Better than waiting hours or days to know your fate.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 1,179
    A friend sent me this, from Prospect magazine August 2018. It will need to be clipped to fit. It's behind a paywall so good luck reading the rest ...

    A full two years after the referendum, in late June, Theresa May was still sounding like a baffling professor of formal logic, having advanced the conversation on from “Brexit means Brexit” to “Brexit means Brexit does mean Brexit.” She still had nothing concrete to say about what leaving the EU would involve.
    Then, at the start of July, she finally moved beyond gnomic utterance, convening her cabinet in Chequers to settle the real choices—a single market in goods, but not services or labour, “taking account of” European Court of Justice rulings and so on. It was all fantasy, in the sense that there was no reason to believe the EU would buy it, but for today’s Conservative Party it proved too much even to get specific in the realm of fiction, and her cabinet started to crumble.
    The root reason for this is that, with no positive vision of a future outside Europe from the right, and none for a future inside it from the left, there has been no change at all in the range of Brexit options that can be considered as logical possibilities. That still stretches, just as it did in summer 2016, from a no-deal, cliff-edge Brexit to the softest, greatest-possible-alignment Brexit.
    An unfolding impossibility
    “What about no Brexit?” is still unsayable—which seems strange given the dwindling band who still pretend that any of the available Brexits are at all satisfactory: either we will be submitting to rules we can no longer write, or driving the economy over a cliff.
    Despite the government dissolving into entropy and rage, a new line of thought is gaining traction: there cannot be any good option, because to reverse Brexit would be as bad as to execute it. If you think the nation is divided now, just wait until you try and thwart it in its democratically expressed will.
    It is bizarre to watch some Conservatives say this explicitly: Priti Patel tweeting, “This is no longer an argument about whether Brexit was a good idea, but is about democracy… the public want to know that political leaders will stay true to the promise made to them that Brexit means Brexit.” As the impossibility of Brexit unfolds, the act itself becomes irrelevant: all that matters is the decision to act.
    This is quite an interesting cognitive trajectory. Here are two propositions. First, however unproductive anyone expected the Brexit negotiations to be, the reality is proving worse for the country and its citizens.
    ...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,401

    So does the continuation of Stuart Broad's England career rely on Ben Stokes being found guilty ?

    I fancy his chances. Broad that is.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,139
    HYUFD said:

    Anorak said:
    Just 16% of voters back complete freedom of EU citizens to come to the UK, 54% say they should only be able to come with a job offer or place to study, 18% want immigration from EU citizens sharply reduced regardless
    Strong support for a second referendum and Remain is more popular than both Leave options combined.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,401
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Anorak said:

    62/6 @Sandpit looking increasingly queasy.

    A little annoying, but what can one do? Maybe a little rain dance.

    At least I wasn’t one of probably several thousand who sat all day in the rain and left early expecting my money back.
    It’s astonishing that there has been so much play when you saw that pond earlier. I was convinced that was it for the day.
    Why did we listen to you D:
    One day I'll learn :p
    It was torrential. Honest.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,534
    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

    SNP still well down on the 50% they got in 2015.

    A Boris or Mogg led Tories would be the best way to revive Scottish Labour
    What are you on??
    Actually for once HYUFD is correct.
    The question of where Scottish swing voters who voted Tory last time would go to is an interesting one. But I think HYUFD is right that Scottish Independence is probably more toxic for them than Corbyn.
    Scottish Labour or the LDs if they move
    SCon voters are Brexiters. they aren't going to the LDs
    The way the vote has shifted about dramatically in Scotland I feel, as an outsider, than I have no idea what they will do or if it will make sense!

    They keep it interesting up there thesedays, I'll grant that.
    With SNP still a mile ahead after 11 years in power, and no sign of it changing soon.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 4,317
    stodge said:

    Had a small bet on Showu in the 7.00 at Chelmsford - got on at 4s which was nice. Better than waiting hours or days to know your fate.

    Pretty disappointing - never went the gallop. Implicit made every yard.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,379
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Anorak said:

    62/6 @Sandpit looking increasingly queasy.

    A little annoying, but what can one do? Maybe a little rain dance.

    At least I wasn’t one of probably several thousand who sat all day in the rain and left early expecting my money back.
    It’s astonishing that there has been so much play when you saw that pond earlier. I was convinced that was it for the day.
    Why did we listen to you D:
    One day I'll learn :p
    It was torrential. Honest.
    It was torrential. Yours truly got an impromptu outdoor hosing down.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,615
    House of Fraser update: my other half has agreed to boycott the store and, as predicted, John Lewis will gain her custom in future.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,139
    edited August 10
    It’s hard to see how Brexit can be sustained on (GB only) numbers like this:
    image
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,506

    FPT

    @DayTripper The reason why JRM and Boris are being considered for the Tory leadership among Conservative members in these polls, as well as Corbyn’s election, is because these people represent the worldview/ideology of said members. And, that ‘sensible’ Third Way style centrism has lost its popularity among electorates. Cable got picked partly because the LDs don’t have many great options. The same for UKIP,

    Well, OK. It may well reflect the worldview of the membership, but that doesn’t address my point which is that it would seem that that worldview is apparently the result of a bypass filter being installed to ignore the manifest unsuitability of these various “leaders”. I mean, come on, after Boris’ stint as Foreign Secretary, how can anybody continue to believe he has the capability to run a whelk stall, let alone the country? Corbyn’s management of the Labour Party doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in him being able to hold that lot together, let alone the wider polity. And I suppose if I wanted ability to molest badgers or to get somebody to clean behind the fridge, some of UKIP’s past choices might have been right up my street, but I don’t think those are top of the list of what the country needs right now.

    It’s not exactly a new phenomenon, either; vide Iain Duncan Smith, Michael Foot, William Hague, Ed Milliband, etc. And look what a success those all turned out to be. The party members who elected them really had their fingers on the pulse of appeal to the wider electorate.
    Re Ed Miliband, IIRC it was David who won with members, not Ed.

    I’d agree that Corbyn isn’t a competent leader, and nor would Boris be. But perhaps party members see it that more centrist candidates aren’t that much of an improvement in terms of competency and electability in order to make them put aside ideological purity.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,989
    edited August 10
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Anorak said:

    62/6 @Sandpit looking increasingly queasy.

    A little annoying, but what can one do? Maybe a little rain dance.

    At least I wasn’t one of probably several thousand who sat all day in the rain and left early expecting my money back.
    It’s astonishing that there has been so much play when you saw that pond earlier. I was convinced that was it for the day.
    Why did we listen to you D:
    One day I'll learn :p
    It was torrential. Honest.
    And now they’re going to call it a day before 7:30, leaving at least an hour of light left.
    Cricket can be really annoying sometimes.

    Edit: if we don’t get em out first. 96/9.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,857
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Anorak said:

    62/6 @Sandpit looking increasingly queasy.

    A little annoying, but what can one do? Maybe a little rain dance.

    At least I wasn’t one of probably several thousand who sat all day in the rain and left early expecting my money back.
    It’s astonishing that there has been so much play when you saw that pond earlier. I was convinced that was it for the day.
    Why did we listen to you D:
    One day I'll learn :p
    It was torrential. Honest.
    And now they’re going to call it a day before 7:30, leaving at least an hour of light left.
    Cricket can be really annoying sometimes.
    It's always annoying.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,506
    kle4 said:

    @DayTripper The reason why JRM and Boris are being considered for the Tory leadership among Conservative members in these polls, as well as Corbyn’s election, is because these people represent the worldview/ideology of said members. And, that ‘sensible’ Third Way style centrism has lost its popularity among electorates. Cable got picked partly because the LDs don’t have many great options. The same for UKIP,

    If Boris gets in the final two I think he wins easily.

    What will be hilarious is if he doesn't even stand again (I rate this as very unlikely, even having been surprised last time - his actions making a play for the leadership are simply too blatant not to do it this time)..

    If he is not in the final two, and there is not some other hard leaver who for some reason got in ahead of him, I would assume a lot of anger.
    I think they’ll definitely be a Leaver in the last two, it just won’t be Boris. I agree he wins easily if he makes the final two, which is the precise reason he won’t. Clearly from this week, many Tory MPs have their concerns about him.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,141
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Anorak said:

    62/6 @Sandpit looking increasingly queasy.

    A little annoying, but what can one do? Maybe a little rain dance.

    At least I wasn’t one of probably several thousand who sat all day in the rain and left early expecting my money back.
    It’s astonishing that there has been so much play when you saw that pond earlier. I was convinced that was it for the day.
    Why did we listen to you D:
    One day I'll learn :p
    It was torrential. Honest.
    And now they’re going to call it a day before 7:30, leaving at least an hour of light left.
    Cricket can be really annoying sometimes.
    I considered a draw law sub evens but thought India might be able to bat !
    England will be batting at 7 30
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,937
    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    On topic of today's YouGov I see UKIP have reached absolute zero on the Scottish sub sample which is SNP 42%, Tory 29%, Lab 17%,Green 6% and Lib 4%.

    Of course just a sub sample but there is now a run of YouGovs with the Nats in the 40s and Labour way back in third. It maybe that some PB contributors have been rather overestimating the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland.

    SNP still well down on the 50% they got in 2015.

    A Boris or Mogg led Tories would be the best way to revive Scottish Labour
    What are you on??
    Actually for once HYUFD is correct.
    The question of where Scottish swing voters who voted Tory last time would go to is an interesting one. But I think HYUFD is right that Scottish Independence is probably more toxic for them than Corbyn.
    Scottish Labour or the LDs if they move
    SCon voters are Brexiters. they aren't going to the LDs
    The way the vote has shifted about dramatically in Scotland I feel, as an outsider, than I have no idea what they will do or if it will make sense!

    They keep it interesting up there thesedays, I'll grant that.
    We are making up for the 2005 to 2010 Westminster election complete lack of change.

    I have genuinely found the mass LD to Con switch in Scotland utterly surprising. I wish there was se serious academic research into the topic.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,534
    edited August 10
    stodge said:

    Had a small bet on Showu in the 7.00 at Chelmsford - got on at 4s which was nice. Better than waiting hours or days to know your fate.

    how did it run, PS I see it was a duffer
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,079
    Jimmy gets his 5. Well deserved. So do England come out now, or is that stumps?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,937
    Just saw Karthik's dismissal. Who needs spin bowling if you can swing it like that.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,401
    Jimmy is just a god. 99 wickets at Lords. Incredible.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,151
    edited August 10

    It’s hard to see how Brexit can be sustained on (GB only) numbers like this:
    image

    Quite easily, even on that Yougov poll 49% support Leave without a Deal or Leave with a Deal ie more than the 48% who backed Leave in the final EU referendum poll from Yougov.

    Given the same margin of error Leave with or without a Deal combined would be on 53%.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,151

    HYUFD said:

    Anorak said:
    Just 16% of voters back complete freedom of EU citizens to come to the UK, 54% say they should only be able to come with a job offer or place to study, 18% want immigration from EU citizens sharply reduced regardless
    Strong support for a second referendum and Remain is more popular than both Leave options combined.
    Remain is on LESS than it was in the final Yougov pre EU referendum poll
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,989
    Anorak said:

    Jimmy gets his 5. Well deserved. So do England come out now, or is that stumps?

    Looks like that’s a wrap for the day.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 1,038
    HYUFD said:

    Anorak said:
    Just 16% of voters back complete freedom of EU citizens to come to the UK, 54% say they should only be able to come with a job offer or place to study, 18% want immigration from EU citizens sharply reduced regardless
    You seem to have skipped over:

    It is more important to control immigration from the EU than have free trade: 29
    It is more important to ensure Britain can trade freely with the EU without tariffs or restrictions than to control immigration: 50

    However, the important figure here is the stance of Conservative voters, which is a very narrow 44/42 over prioritising immigration control, which (whilst closer than I'd have assumed and guaranteeing May will piss off a big tranche of her own supporters either way) is still net anti for the Conservatives and that's what May will be chiefly concerned with.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,079
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anorak said:
    Just 16% of voters back complete freedom of EU citizens to come to the UK, 54% say they should only be able to come with a job offer or place to study, 18% want immigration from EU citizens sharply reduced regardless
    Strong support for a second referendum and Remain is more popular than both Leave options combined.
    Remain is on LESS than it was in the final Yougov pre EU referendum poll
    Well I imagine they'll have tweaked their methodology after that failure, so I don't think you can fairly compare the two.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,151
    edited August 10
    Anorak said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anorak said:
    Just 16% of voters back complete freedom of EU citizens to come to the UK, 54% say they should only be able to come with a job offer or place to study, 18% want immigration from EU citizens sharply reduced regardless
    Strong support for a second referendum and Remain is more popular than both Leave options combined.
    Remain is on LESS than it was in the final Yougov pre EU referendum poll
    Well I imagine they'll have tweaked their methodology after that failure, so I don't think you can fairly compare the two.
    Like they tweaked their methodology after 2015 to get their not much more accurate 2017 polling?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 4,317
    malcolmg said:

    stodge said:

    Had a small bet on Showu in the 7.00 at Chelmsford - got on at 4s which was nice. Better than waiting hours or days to know your fate.

    how did it run, PS I see it was a duffer
    Thought the visor might help but had the opposite effect. Doesn't always work the oracle.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,151
    edited August 10

    HYUFD said:

    Anorak said:
    Just 16% of voters back complete freedom of EU citizens to come to the UK, 54% say they should only be able to come with a job offer or place to study, 18% want immigration from EU citizens sharply reduced regardless
    You seem to have skipped over:

    It is more important to control immigration from the EU than have free trade: 29
    It is more important to ensure Britain can trade freely with the EU without tariffs or restrictions than to control immigration: 50

    However, the important figure here is the stance of Conservative voters, which is a very narrow 44/42 over prioritising immigration control, which (whilst closer than I'd have assumed and guaranteeing May will piss off a big tranche of her own supporters either way) is still net anti for the Conservatives and that's what May will be chiefly concerned with.
    That is irrelevant as the Chequers Deal combined both a free trade goal and greater control of immigration.

    What is relevant is 54% back the plan in the Chequers Deal to require a job offer or study place for EU citizens who want to come and live in the UK
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,079
    HYUFD said:

    Anorak said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anorak said:
    Just 16% of voters back complete freedom of EU citizens to come to the UK, 54% say they should only be able to come with a job offer or place to study, 18% want immigration from EU citizens sharply reduced regardless
    Strong support for a second referendum and Remain is more popular than both Leave options combined.
    Remain is on LESS than it was in the final Yougov pre EU referendum poll
    Well I imagine they'll have tweaked their methodology after that failure, so I don't think you can fairly compare the two.
    Like they tweaked their methodology after 2015 to get their not much more accurate 2017 polling?
    Exactly. Glad you agree.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 2,276
    Anorak said:

    Sandpit said:

    Anorak said:

    62/6 @Sandpit looking increasingly queasy.

    A little annoying, but what can one do? Maybe I’ll do a little rain dance.
    I still think you were right to cash out. Forecast is crappy for next 3 days.
    Disagree. Tomorrow looks fine, and we should roll India over from here. They can play to 7.30 every night if required.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,219
    The last time I checked India were 3 down. Just watching the highlights on Channel 5.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,577

    It’s hard to see how Brexit can be sustained on (GB only) numbers like this:
    image

    Those numbers are very tight and aren’t mutually exclusive either.

    To test this the other way you could ask whether to Leave the EU or Remain in the EU and join the euro and join schengen, or Remain in the EU without Dave’s renegotiation and pay slightly high budget contributions, and then “recode” that.

    I suspect you’d get a small Leave lead.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 2,276

    It’s hard to see how Brexit can be sustained on (GB only) numbers like this:
    image

    Those numbers are very tight and aren’t mutually exclusive either.

    To test this the other way you could ask whether to Leave the EU or Remain in the EU and join the euro and join schengen, or Remain in the EU without Dave’s renegotiation and pay slightly high budget contributions, and then “recode” that.

    I suspect you’d get a small Leave lead.
    Only from the PB Leavers.

    Only on PB.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,577
    Anorak said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anorak said:
    Just 16% of voters back complete freedom of EU citizens to come to the UK, 54% say they should only be able to come with a job offer or place to study, 18% want immigration from EU citizens sharply reduced regardless
    Strong support for a second referendum and Remain is more popular than both Leave options combined.
    Remain is on LESS than it was in the final Yougov pre EU referendum poll
    Well I imagine they'll have tweaked their methodology after that failure, so I don't think you can fairly compare the two.
    But, it’s pretty tenuous.

    The problem is that it’s only a minority of this polling that’s genuinely being used to objectively test public opinion at the moment; most of it is push polling designed to be published with a desired headline in mind in order to influence political outcomes.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 2,276
    HYUFD said:

    Anorak said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anorak said:
    Just 16% of voters back complete freedom of EU citizens to come to the UK, 54% say they should only be able to come with a job offer or place to study, 18% want immigration from EU citizens sharply reduced regardless
    Strong support for a second referendum and Remain is more popular than both Leave options combined.
    Remain is on LESS than it was in the final Yougov pre EU referendum poll
    Well I imagine they'll have tweaked their methodology after that failure, so I don't think you can fairly compare the two.
    Like they tweaked their methodology after 2015 to get their not much more accurate 2017 polling?
    This from the guy who has 100% faith in polls when they show what he wants.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,079
    Anazina said:

    Anorak said:

    Sandpit said:

    Anorak said:

    62/6 @Sandpit looking increasingly queasy.

    A little annoying, but what can one do? Maybe I’ll do a little rain dance.
    I still think you were right to cash out. Forecast is crappy for next 3 days.
    Disagree. Tomorrow looks fine, and we should roll India over from here. They can play to 7.30 every night if required.
    Just trying to cheer up our desert dweller.

    Anyway, Sunday looks a washout and I don't believe any forecast beyond 48 hours!
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,679
    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anorak said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anorak said:
    Just 16% of voters back complete freedom of EU citizens to come to the UK, 54% say they should only be able to come with a job offer or place to study, 18% want immigration from EU citizens sharply reduced regardless
    Strong support for a second referendum and Remain is more popular than both Leave options combined.
    Remain is on LESS than it was in the final Yougov pre EU referendum poll
    Well I imagine they'll have tweaked their methodology after that failure, so I don't think you can fairly compare the two.
    Like they tweaked their methodology after 2015 to get their not much more accurate 2017 polling?
    This from the guy who has 100% faith in polls when they show what he wants.
    I think that is a tendency that just about everybody on PB shares
  • RobDRobD Posts: 33,964

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anorak said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anorak said:
    Just 16% of voters back complete freedom of EU citizens to come to the UK, 54% say they should only be able to come with a job offer or place to study, 18% want immigration from EU citizens sharply reduced regardless
    Strong support for a second referendum and Remain is more popular than both Leave options combined.
    Remain is on LESS than it was in the final Yougov pre EU referendum poll
    Well I imagine they'll have tweaked their methodology after that failure, so I don't think you can fairly compare the two.
    Like they tweaked their methodology after 2015 to get their not much more accurate 2017 polling?
    This from the guy who has 100% faith in polls when they show what he wants.
    I think that is a tendency that just about everybody on PB shares
    Anazina must be new here. ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,151
    edited August 10
    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anorak said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anorak said:
    Just 16% of voters back complete freedom of EU citizens to come to the UK, 54% say they should only be able to come with a job offer or place to study, 18% want immigration from EU citizens sharply reduced regardless
    Strong support for a second referendum and Remain is more popular than both Leave options combined.
    Remain is on LESS than it was in the final Yougov pre EU referendum poll
    Well I imagine they'll have tweaked their methodology after that failure, so I don't think you can fairly compare the two.
    Like they tweaked their methodology after 2015 to get their not much more accurate 2017 polling?
    This from the guy who has 100% faith in polls when they show what he wants.
    Polls show trends, what is clear is 51% Remain 49% Leave with YouGov today is no different in any meaningful way from the 52% Remain 48% Leave final pre EU referendum YouGov poll before the referendum produced a 52% Leave 48% Remain result.

    Even with No Deal the only Leave option Remain still cannot even get to 60% and Leave gets over 40%. We remain as divided on Brexit as we were before the referendum
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,151
    edited August 10

    It’s hard to see how Brexit can be sustained on (GB only) numbers like this:
    image

    Those numbers are very tight and aren’t mutually exclusive either.

    To test this the other way you could ask whether to Leave the EU or Remain in the EU and join the euro and join schengen, or Remain in the EU without Dave’s renegotiation and pay slightly high budget contributions, and then “recode” that.

    I suspect you’d get a small Leave lead.
    The only way to break 60% is to have a Leave and accept the Deal v Remain with the Euro and Schengen question. That would be over 60% Leave and less than 40% Remain and finally settle the matter for good.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,577
    HYUFD said:

    It’s hard to see how Brexit can be sustained on (GB only) numbers like this:
    image

    Those numbers are very tight and aren’t mutually exclusive either.

    To test this the other way you could ask whether to Leave the EU or Remain in the EU and join the euro and join schengen, or Remain in the EU without Dave’s renegotiation and pay slightly high budget contributions, and then “recode” that.

    I suspect you’d get a small Leave lead.
    The only way to break 60% is to have a Leave with a Deal v Remain with the Euro and Schengen question. That would be over 60% Leave and less than 40% Remain and finally settle the matter for good.
    Like the weather, and public transport, we will whinge about Europe regardless but I doubt there’s going to be much appetite to go back “all in” if an acceptable new political status quo is established.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,989
    Anorak said:

    Anazina said:

    Anorak said:

    Sandpit said:

    Anorak said:

    62/6 @Sandpit looking increasingly queasy.

    A little annoying, but what can one do? Maybe I’ll do a little rain dance.
    I still think you were right to cash out. Forecast is crappy for next 3 days.
    Disagree. Tomorrow looks fine, and we should roll India over from here. They can play to 7.30 every night if required.
    Just trying to cheer up our desert dweller.

    Anyway, Sunday looks a washout and I don't believe any forecast beyond 48 hours!
    The worry is that it could all be over this time tomorrow. If England treat it more like a one day game and aim for 250 by tea, we could have them rolled over again in the evening if they put in a repeat of today’s poor performance.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,151

    HYUFD said:

    It’s hard to see how Brexit can be sustained on (GB only) numbers like this:
    image

    Those numbers are very tight and aren’t mutually exclusive either.

    To test this the other way you could ask whether to Leave the EU or Remain in the EU and join the euro and join schengen, or Remain in the EU without Dave’s renegotiation and pay slightly high budget contributions, and then “recode” that.

    I suspect you’d get a small Leave lead.
    The only way to break 60% is to have a Leave with a Deal v Remain with the Euro and Schengen question. That would be over 60% Leave and less than 40% Remain and finally settle the matter for good.
    Like the weather, and public transport, we will whinge about Europe regardless but I doubt there’s going to be much appetite to go back “all in” if an acceptable new political status quo is established.
    Yes much as William Glenn wishes otherwise no more than a third of Brits have ever been Euro Federalists who want to sign up to the EU, the Euro and all
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,401
    Can’t help feeling that United will regret Maguire is in blue tonight. Amazed that Lindorf and Darmien are still there let alone playing.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,577
    Anazina said:

    It’s hard to see how Brexit can be sustained on (GB only) numbers like this:
    image

    Those numbers are very tight and aren’t mutually exclusive either.

    To test this the other way you could ask whether to Leave the EU or Remain in the EU and join the euro and join schengen, or Remain in the EU without Dave’s renegotiation and pay slightly high budget contributions, and then “recode” that.

    I suspect you’d get a small Leave lead.
    Only from the PB Leavers.

    Only on PB.
    What sort of a response is that?

    It’s the precise inverse of that polling, testing the reality of that question the other way round.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 4,317
    Sandpit said:

    The worry is that it could all be over this time tomorrow. If England treat it more like a one day game and aim for 250 by tea, we could have them rolled over again in the evening if they put in a repeat of today’s poor performance.

    OTOH England could be skittled for 70, India could knock 200 in forty overs and leave us trying to get 230 in deteriorating light against the spinners.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,219
    edited August 10
    Most people like to walk around department stores every so often, but the truth is there won't be any left soon because people won't buy anything from them. Bit of a dilemma.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 4,317

    Like the weather, and public transport, we will whinge about Europe regardless but I doubt there’s going to be much appetite to go back “all in” if an acceptable new political status quo is established.

    That assumes the only offer the EU will accept is "full" membership including Schengen and the Euro which many would regard as tantamount to national capitulation. Negotiating a possible return to the EU would be a viable position for any party to adopt on the basis any new membership would need the approval of the British people either via a referendum or a GE.

    The question would then be how much the EU want us back - if they don't want us back it won't matter.

This discussion has been closed.