The worry is that it could all be over this time tomorrow. If England treat it more like a one day game and aim for 250 by tea, we could have them rolled over again in the evening if they put in a repeat of today’s poor performance.
OTOH England could be skittled for 70, India could knock 200 in forty overs and leave us trying to get 230 in deteriorating light against the spinners.
And Theresa May could negotiate the ultimate cakeist Brexit and Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn say something sensible, constructive and non racist.
Similarly I could get a threesome with Margot Robbie and Maria Sharapova.
Like the weather, and public transport, we will whinge about Europe regardless but I doubt there’s going to be much appetite to go back “all in” if an acceptable new political status quo is established.
That assumes the only offer the EU will accept is "full" membership including Schengen and the Euro which many would regard as tantamount to national capitulation. Negotiating a possible return to the EU would be a viable position for any party to adopt on the basis any new membership would need the approval of the British people either via a referendum or a GE.
The question would then be how much the EU want us back - if they don't want us back it won't matter.
I think - although I could be wrong - that our departure will be so seismic and disruptive for the EU it will lead to federalism de facto if not de jure for the Eurozone at least. Therefore the hole we currently fill will vanish and a return on standard terms will be the only option.
Like the weather, and public transport, we will whinge about Europe regardless but I doubt there’s going to be much appetite to go back “all in” if an acceptable new political status quo is established.
That assumes the only offer the EU will accept is "full" membership including Schengen and the Euro which many would regard as tantamount to national capitulation. Negotiating a possible return to the EU would be a viable position for any party to adopt on the basis any new membership would need the approval of the British people either via a referendum or a GE.
The question would then be how much the EU want us back - if they don't want us back it won't matter.
I think - although I could be wrong - that our departure will be so seismic and disruptive for the EU it will lead to federalism de facto if not de jure for the Eurozone at least. Therefore the hole we currently fill will vanish and a return on standard terms will be the only option.
Except that such an approach won't work for the Eastern European countries, so there will be two tiers
And Theresa May could negotiate the ultimate cakeist Brexit and Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn say something sensible, constructive and non racist.
Similarly I could get a threesome with Margot Robbie and Maria Sharapova.
But India get 200?
To assume that because a side batted poorly in one innings they will bat poorly in two is unwise. Indeed, India will be aware they under-performed badly today on a pitch and a day ideally suited to English swing bowling but it's no different to England struggling in Mumbai or Calcutta on a hot, humid day with the spinners enjoying themselves.
It’s hard to see how Brexit can be sustained on (GB only) numbers like this:
Those numbers are very tight and aren’t mutually exclusive either.
To test this the other way you could ask whether to Leave the EU or Remain in the EU and join the euro and join schengen, or Remain in the EU without Dave’s renegotiation and pay slightly high budget contributions, and then “recode” that.
I suspect you’d get a small Leave lead.
Only from the PB Leavers.
Only on PB.
What sort of a response is that?
It’s the precise inverse of that polling, testing the reality of that question the other way round.
For it to be the inverse “Leave” would have to mean leave with the deal so it’s hard to see how that would suddenly command a majority. Do you think people would take one look at the Euro option and think “Run away as fast as we can”?
Just 16% of voters back complete freedom of EU citizens to come to the UK, 54% say they should only be able to come with a job offer or place to study, 18% want immigration from EU citizens sharply reduced regardless
Strong support for a second referendum and Remain is more popular than both Leave options combined.
Remain is on LESS than it was in the final Yougov pre EU referendum poll
Well I imagine they'll have tweaked their methodology after that failure, so I don't think you can fairly compare the two.
Like they tweaked their methodology after 2015 to get their not much more accurate 2017 polling?
This from the guy who has 100% faith in polls when they show what he wants.
Polls show trends, what is clear is 51% Remain 49% Leave with YouGov today is no different in any meaningful way from the 52% Remain 48% Leave final pre EU referendum YouGov poll before the referendum produced a 52% Leave 48% Remain result.
Even with No Deal the only Leave option Remain still cannot even get to 60% and Leave gets over 40%. We remain as divided on Brexit as we were before the referendum
Actually on the straight Leave/Remain question it’s 47/53 to Remain in this poll, so you’re wrong...
And Theresa May could negotiate the ultimate cakeist Brexit and Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn say something sensible, constructive and non racist.
Similarly I could get a threesome with Margot Robbie and Maria Sharapova.
But India get 200?
To assume that because a side batted poorly in one innings they will bat poorly in two is unwise. Indeed, India will be aware they under-performed badly today on a pitch and a day ideally suited to English swing bowling but it's no different to England struggling in Mumbai or Calcutta on a hot, humid day with the spinners enjoying themselves.
But to assume that a side who gave batted without any sense at all in three successive innings will continue to struggle is not.
Like the weather, and public transport, we will whinge about Europe regardless but I doubt there’s going to be much appetite to go back “all in” if an acceptable new political status quo is established.
That assumes the only offer the EU will accept is "full" membership including Schengen and the Euro which many would regard as tantamount to national capitulation. Negotiating a possible return to the EU would be a viable position for any party to adopt on the basis any new membership would need the approval of the British people either via a referendum or a GE.
The question would then be how much the EU want us back - if they don't want us back it won't matter.
I think - although I could be wrong - that our departure will be so seismic and disruptive for the EU it will lead to federalism de facto if not de jure for the Eurozone at least. Therefore the hole we currently fill will vanish and a return on standard terms will be the only option.
Except that such an approach won't work for the Eastern European countries, so there will be two tiers
And isn't it a tragedy they weren't willing to consider such a desirable outcome before the referendum?
Like the weather, and public transport, we will whinge about Europe regardless but I doubt there’s going to be much appetite to go back “all in” if an acceptable new political status quo is established.
That assumes the only offer the EU will accept is "full" membership including Schengen and the Euro which many would regard as tantamount to national capitulation. Negotiating a possible return to the EU would be a viable position for any party to adopt on the basis any new membership would need the approval of the British people either via a referendum or a GE.
The question would then be how much the EU want us back - if they don't want us back it won't matter.
If the EU was interested in something other than "full" membership, they have had ample opportunities to explore this. With Cameron before the Brexit vote, with May afterwards.
They aren't interested. Which shows a stupid lack of vision on their part.
It’s hard to see how Brexit can be sustained on (GB only) numbers like this:
Those numbers are very tight and aren’t mutually exclusive either.
To test this the other way you could ask whether to Leave the EU or Remain in the EU and join the euro and join schengen, or Remain in the EU without Dave’s renegotiation and pay slightly high budget contributions, and then “recode” that.
I suspect you’d get a small Leave lead.
Only from the PB Leavers.
Only on PB.
What sort of a response is that?
It’s the precise inverse of that polling, testing the reality of that question the other way round.
For it to be the inverse “Leave” would have to mean leave with the deal so it’s hard to see how that would suddenly command a majority. Do you think people would take one look at the Euro option and think “Run away as fast as we can”?
I think Leave with the Chequers Deal would comfortably beat Remain in the EU and join the euro and schengen, yes.
It’s hard to see how Brexit can be sustained on (GB only) numbers like this:
Those numbers are very tight and aren’t mutually exclusive either.
To test this the other way you could ask whether to Leave the EU or Remain in the EU and join the euro and join schengen, or Remain in the EU without Dave’s renegotiation and pay slightly high budget contributions, and then “recode” that.
I suspect you’d get a small Leave lead.
Only from the PB Leavers.
Only on PB.
What sort of a response is that?
It’s the precise inverse of that polling, testing the reality of that question the other way round.
For it to be the inverse “Leave” would have to mean leave with the deal so it’s hard to see how that would suddenly command a majority. Do you think people would take one look at the Euro option and think “Run away as fast as we can”?
I think Leave with the Chequers Deal would comfortably beat Remain in the EU and join the euro and schengen, yes.
I thought we’re talking about three options:
- Remain and join the Euro/Schengen etc - Remain as we are - Leave with Chequers
I think that would be a big majority for the middle option.
It’s hard to see how Brexit can be sustained on (GB only) numbers like this:
Those numbers are very tight and aren’t mutually exclusive either.
To test this the other way you could ask whether to Leave the EU or Remain in the EU and join the euro and join schengen, or Remain in the EU without Dave’s renegotiation and pay slightly high budget contributions, and then “recode” that.
I suspect you’d get a small Leave lead.
Only from the PB Leavers.
Only on PB.
What sort of a response is that?
It’s the precise inverse of that polling, testing the reality of that question the other way round.
For it to be the inverse “Leave” would have to mean leave with the deal so it’s hard to see how that would suddenly command a majority. Do you think people would take one look at the Euro option and think “Run away as fast as we can”?
I think Leave with the Chequers Deal would comfortably beat Remain in the EU and join the euro and schengen, yes.
I thought we’re talking about three options:
- Remain and join the Euro/Schengen etc - Remain as we are - Leave with Chequers
I think that would be a big majority for the middle option.
Just 16% of voters back complete freedom of EU citizens to come to the UK, 54% say they should only be able to come with a job offer or place to study, 18% want immigration from EU citizens sharply reduced regardless
Strong support for a second referendum and Remain is more popular than both Leave options combined.
Remain is on LESS than it was in the final Yougov pre EU referendum poll
Well I imagine they'll have tweaked their methodology after that failure, so I don't think you can fairly compare the two.
Like they tweaked their methodology after 2015 to get their not much more accurate 2017 polling?
This from the guy who has 100% faith in polls when they show what he wants.
Polls show trends, what is clear is 51% Remain 49% Leave with YouGov today is no different in any meaningful way from the 52% Remain 48% Leave final pre EU referendum YouGov poll before the referendum produced a 52% Leave 48% Remain result.
Even with No Deal the only Leave option Remain still cannot even get to 60% and Leave gets over 40%. We remain as divided on Brexit as we were before the referendum
Actually on the straight Leave/Remain question it’s 47/53 to Remain in this poll, so you’re wrong...
Even on the straight Leave to Remain question on the same margin of error as 2016 Leave would be on 51%
It’s hard to see how Brexit can be sustained on (GB only) numbers like this:
Those numbers are very tight and aren’t mutually exclusive either.
To test this the other way you could ask whether to Leave the EU or Remain in the EU and join the euro and join schengen, or Remain in the EU without Dave’s renegotiation and pay slightly high budget contributions, and then “recode” that.
I suspect you’d get a small Leave lead.
Only from the PB Leavers.
Only on PB.
What sort of a response is that?
It’s the precise inverse of that polling, testing the reality of that question the other way round.
For it to be the inverse “Leave” would have to mean leave with the deal so it’s hard to see how that would suddenly command a majority. Do you think people would take one look at the Euro option and think “Run away as fast as we can”?
I think Leave with the Chequers Deal would comfortably beat Remain in the EU and join the euro and schengen, yes.
I thought we’re talking about three options:
- Remain and join the Euro/Schengen etc - Remain as we are - Leave with Chequers
I think that would be a big majority for the middle option.
You could actually add two other options for that too ie Leave with No Deal and Leave but stay in the Single Market. That would cover all possibilities
Just 16% of voters back complete freedom of EU citizens to come to the UK, 54% say they should only be able to come with a job offer or place to study, 18% want immigration from EU citizens sharply reduced regardless
Strong support for a second referendum and Remain is more popular than both Leave options combined.
Remain is on LESS than it was in the final Yougov pre EU referendum poll
Well I imagine they'll have tweaked their methodology after that failure, so I don't think you can fairly compare the two.
Like they tweaked their methodology after 2015 to get their not much more accurate 2017 polling?
This from the guy who has 100% faith in polls when they show what he wants.
Polls show trends, what is clear is 51% Remain 49% Leave with YouGov today is no different in any meaningful way from the 52% Remain 48% Leave final pre EU referendum YouGov poll before the referendum produced a 52% Leave 48% Remain result.
Even with No Deal the only Leave option Remain still cannot even get to 60% and Leave gets over 40%. We remain as divided on Brexit as we were before the referendum
Actually on the straight Leave/Remain question it’s 47/53 to Remain in this poll, so you’re wrong...
Even on the straight Leave to Remain question on the same margin of error as 2016 Leave would be on 51%
This poll is weighted against the referendum result from 2 years ago which that poll wasn’t, for obvious reasons, so that is a completely idiotic adjustment to make.
It’s hard to see how Brexit can be sustained on (GB only) numbers like this:
Those numbers are very tight and aren’t mutually exclusive either.
To test this the other way you could ask whether to Leave the EU or Remain in the EU and join the euro and join schengen, or Remain in the EU without Dave’s renegotiation and pay slightly high budget contributions, and then “recode” that.
I suspect you’d get a small Leave lead.
Only from the PB Leavers.
Only on PB.
What sort of a response is that?
It’s the precise inverse of that polling, testing the reality of that question the other way round.
For it to be the inverse “Leave” would have to mean leave with the deal so it’s hard to see how that would suddenly command a majority. Do you think people would take one look at the Euro option and think “Run away as fast as we can”?
I think Leave with the Chequers Deal would comfortably beat Remain in the EU and join the euro and schengen, yes.
I thought we’re talking about three options:
- Remain and join the Euro/Schengen etc - Remain as we are - Leave with Chequers
I think that would be a big majority for the middle option.
You could actually add two other options for that too ie Leave with No Deal and Leave but stay in the Single Market. That would cover all possibilities
I wonder if there is a way to quantify the hardness of each type of Brexit, much like the Mohs scale, from wet lettuce join the Euro at 0, to diamond Brexit crash out no deal at 10.
Just 16% of voters back complete freedom of EU citizens to come to the UK, 54% say they should only be able to come with a job offer or place to study, 18% want immigration from EU citizens sharply reduced regardless
Strong support for a second referendum and Remain is more popular than both Leave options combined.
Remain is on LESS than it was in the final Yougov pre EU referendum poll
Well I imagine they'll have tweaked their methodology after that failure, so I don't think you can fairly compare the two.
Like they tweaked their methodology after 2015 to get their not much more accurate 2017 polling?
This from the guy who has 100% faith in polls when they show what he wants.
Polls show trends, what is clear is 51% Remain 49% Leave with YouGov today is no different in any meaningful way from the 52% Remain 48% Leave final pre EU referendum YouGov poll before the referendum produced a 52% Leave 48% Remain result.
Even with No Deal the only Leave option Remain still cannot even get to 60% and Leave gets over 40%. We remain as divided on Brexit as we were before the referendum
Actually on the straight Leave/Remain question it’s 47/53 to Remain in this poll, so you’re wrong...
Even on the straight Leave to Remain question on the same margin of error as 2016 Leave would be on 51%
This poll is weighted against the referendum result from 2 years ago which that poll wasn’t, for obvious reasons, so that is a completely idiotic adjustment to make.
As YouGov supposedly adjusted their 2017 polls to the 2015 general election result to get their spot on 2017 forecast?
It’s hard to see how Brexit can be sustained on (GB only) numbers like this:
Those numbers are very tight and aren’t mutually exclusive either.
To test this the other way you could ask whether to Leave the EU or Remain in the EU and join the euro and join schengen, or Remain in the EU without Dave’s renegotiation and pay slightly high budget contributions, and then “recode” that.
I suspect you’d get a small Leave lead.
Only from the PB Leavers.
Only on PB.
What sort of a response is that?
It’s the precise inverse of that polling, testing the reality of that question the other way round.
For it to be the inverse “Leave” would have to mean leave with the deal so it’s hard to see how that would suddenly command a majority. Do you think people would take one look at the Euro option and think “Run away as fast as we can”?
I think Leave with the Chequers Deal would comfortably beat Remain in the EU and join the euro and schengen, yes.
I thought we’re talking about three options:
- Remain and join the Euro/Schengen etc - Remain as we are - Leave with Chequers
I think that would be a big majority for the middle option.
You could actually add two other options for that too ie Leave with No Deal and Leave but stay in the Single Market. That would cover all possibilities
I wonder if there is a way to quantify the hardness of each type of Brexit, much like the Mohs scale, from wet lettuce join the Euro at 0, to diamond Brexit crash out no deal at 10.
If the EU was interested in something other than "full" membership, they have had ample opportunities to explore this. With Cameron before the Brexit vote, with May afterwards.
They aren't interested. Which shows a stupid lack of vision on their part.
I'm less convinced. What was Cameron looking for ? Nuances, small changes or was he ever going to tackle the elephant in the room, Freedom of Movement ? Would anything he brought back have passed if it meant continuing with FoM?
Given no FoM means no Single Market or Customs Union was Cameron ever going to come back with a deal which meant de facto leaving?
I suspect as soon as he started his "odyssey", Cameron knew he was in trouble. The kind of meaningful reform which would have placated the 40% or so who simply wanted us out whatever and however was just not achievable. Perhaps activating A50 on January 1st 2016 without calling the Referendum would have been the smartest move.
That, together with the radio silence of late, suggests that an EU-approved deal is in the offing.
And at that point reality will become nine tenths of the law and no one will dare vote against it.
Yes, inclined to agrre with that... If the EU agree to Chequers, and in the apparent absence of a leadership coup, I suspect it will get through the HoC.
And to be fair, even though I am a staunch Remainer I can see a soft Brexit is probably the only middle ground that could command majority support in the country.
That, together with the radio silence of late, suggests that an EU-approved deal is in the offing.
And at that point reality will become nine tenths of the law and no one will dare vote against it.
That’s when May will make her boldest move to date to head off any risk of Corbyn bringing her down over it.
Don't be silly.
Even May would never assassinate Corbyn
Or at least, not over something so trivial as the EU.
I have wondered if Farage will have a bad road accident? I think he is far more difficult to tame than Corbyn. Without Farage UKIP would just be a tiny fringe party. I think September would be the month for Farage to be taken out.
Does anyone have a link to the text of the Chequers deal letter the PM has sent to all Conservative members?
I have the letter but not sure how to get a copy to you
See a link has been provided
Yeah thanks Big_G. Seemed a reasonable letter to me (although I wish she'd stop saying 'I/we have been clear...' it's become an irritating mannerism in her speeches and now she's using it in her letters too!). As I know you are a Tory member has your local party discussed this much? (the letter not her mannerisms!)
That, together with the radio silence of late, suggests that an EU-approved deal is in the offing.
And at that point reality will become nine tenths of the law and no one will dare vote against it.
That’s when May will make her boldest move to date to head off any risk of Corbyn bringing her down over it.
Don't be silly.
Even May would never assassinate Corbyn
Or at least, not over something so trivial as the EU.
I have wondered if Farage will have a bad road accident? I think he is far more difficult to tame than Corbyn. Without Farage UKIP would just be a tiny fringe party. I think September would be the month for Farage to be taken out.
Farages plane crashed already. He was pulled out of the wreckage.
That, together with the radio silence of late, suggests that an EU-approved deal is in the offing.
And at that point reality will become nine tenths of the law and no one will dare vote against it.
That’s when May will make her boldest move to date to head off any risk of Corbyn bringing her down over it.
Don't be silly.
Even May would never assassinate Corbyn
Or at least, not over something so trivial as the EU.
I have wondered if Farage will have a bad road accident? I think he is far more difficult to tame than Corbyn. Without Farage UKIP would just be a tiny fringe party. I think September would be the month for Farage to be taken out.
That, together with the radio silence of late, suggests that an EU-approved deal is in the offing.
And at that point reality will become nine tenths of the law and no one will dare vote against it.
That’s when May will make her boldest move to date to head off any risk of Corbyn bringing her down over it.
Don't be silly.
Even May would never assassinate Corbyn
Or at least, not over something so trivial as the EU.
I have wondered if Farage will have a bad road accident? I think he is far more difficult to tame than Corbyn. Without Farage UKIP would just be a tiny fringe party. I think September would be the month for Farage to be taken out.
That, together with the radio silence of late, suggests that an EU-approved deal is in the offing.
And at that point reality will become nine tenths of the law and no one will dare vote against it.
That’s when May will make her boldest move to date to head off any risk of Corbyn bringing her down over it.
Don't be silly.
Even May would never assassinate Corbyn
Or at least, not over something so trivial as the EU.
I have wondered if Farage will have a bad road accident? I think he is far more difficult to tame than Corbyn. Without Farage UKIP would just be a tiny fringe party. I think September would be the month for Farage to be taken out.
Didn't they once try to sabotage his plane?
I don't know about that but his car was alleged to have been tampered with!
That, together with the radio silence of late, suggests that an EU-approved deal is in the offing.
And at that point reality will become nine tenths of the law and no one will dare vote against it.
That’s when May will make her boldest move to date to head off any risk of Corbyn bringing her down over it.
Don't be silly.
Even May would never assassinate Corbyn
Or at least, not over something so trivial as the EU.
I have wondered if Farage will have a bad road accident? I think he is far more difficult to tame than Corbyn. Without Farage UKIP would just be a tiny fringe party. I think September would be the month for Farage to be taken out.
That, together with the radio silence of late, suggests that an EU-approved deal is in the offing.
And at that point reality will become nine tenths of the law and no one will dare vote against it.
That’s when May will make her boldest move to date to head off any risk of Corbyn bringing her down over it.
Don't be silly.
Even May would never assassinate Corbyn
Or at least, not over something so trivial as the EU.
I have wondered if Farage will have a bad road accident? I think he is far more difficult to tame than Corbyn. Without Farage UKIP would just be a tiny fringe party. I think September would be the month for Farage to be taken out.
Ok calling United’s challenge for the title now. Not going to happen. Same rubbish as last season. Early goal, hanging on, careless in possession, brilliant goalkeeper, running serious risk of throwing points away at home by not even trying to kill the game with more goals.
That, together with the radio silence of late, suggests that an EU-approved deal is in the offing.
And at that point reality will become nine tenths of the law and no one will dare vote against it.
That’s when May will make her boldest move to date to head off any risk of Corbyn bringing her down over it.
Don't be silly.
Even May would never assassinate Corbyn
Or at least, not over something so trivial as the EU.
I have wondered if Farage will have a bad road accident? I think he is far more difficult to tame than Corbyn. Without Farage UKIP would just be a tiny fringe party. I think September would be the month for Farage to be taken out.
You are Tapestry and I claim my £5.
You started it!
If I mention Ryan Hale's defence counsel will I be done for contempt?
That, together with the radio silence of late, suggests that an EU-approved deal is in the offing.
And at that point reality will become nine tenths of the law and no one will dare vote against it.
That’s when May will make her boldest move to date to head off any risk of Corbyn bringing her down over it.
Don't be silly.
Even May would never assassinate Corbyn
Or at least, not over something so trivial as the EU.
I have wondered if Farage will have a bad road accident? I think he is far more difficult to tame than Corbyn. Without Farage UKIP would just be a tiny fringe party. I think September would be the month for Farage to be taken out.
Farages plane crashed already. He was pulled out of the wreckage.
Was a blue box or DeLorean seen nearby?
He was lucky to get out of that! He is like a cat with nine lives, my thinking is his luck has to run out at some point. He has survived Cancer, the aeroplane crash and a previous alleged attempt on his life. On the aeroplane crash, I often wondered whether Bercow would still be Speaker as the election for Buckingham in 2010 could well have been posponed if Farage had gone to meet his maker!
That, together with the radio silence of late, suggests that an EU-approved deal is in the offing.
And at that point reality will become nine tenths of the law and no one will dare vote against it.
That’s when May will make her boldest move to date to head off any risk of Corbyn bringing her down over it.
Don't be silly.
Even May would never assassinate Corbyn
Or at least, not over something so trivial as the EU.
I have wondered if Farage will have a bad road accident? I think he is far more difficult to tame than Corbyn. Without Farage UKIP would just be a tiny fringe party. I think September would be the month for Farage to be taken out.
Farages plane crashed already. He was pulled out of the wreckage.
Was a blue box or DeLorean seen nearby?
He was lucky to get out of that! He is like a cat with nine lives, my thinking is his luck has to run out at some point. He has survived Cancer, the aeroplane crash and a previous alleged attempt on his life. On the aeroplane crash, I often wondered whether Bercow would still be Speaker as the election for Buckingham in 2010 could well have been posponed if Farage had gone to meet his maker!
Why would the election in Buckingham been postponed if one of the candidates had expired - is there some rule to that effect?
That, together with the radio silence of late, suggests that an EU-approved deal is in the offing.
And at that point reality will become nine tenths of the law and no one will dare vote against it.
That’s when May will make her boldest move to date to head off any risk of Corbyn bringing her down over it.
Don't be silly.
Even May would never assassinate Corbyn
Or at least, not over something so trivial as the EU.
I have wondered if Farage will have a bad road accident? I think he is far more difficult to tame than Corbyn. Without Farage UKIP would just be a tiny fringe party. I think September would be the month for Farage to be taken out.
Farages plane crashed already. He was pulled out of the wreckage.
Was a blue box or DeLorean seen nearby?
He was lucky to get out of that! He is like a cat with nine lives, my thinking is his luck has to run out at some point. He has survived Cancer, the aeroplane crash and a previous alleged attempt on his life. On the aeroplane crash, I often wondered whether Bercow would still be Speaker as the election for Buckingham in 2010 could well have been posponed if Farage had gone to meet his maker!
Why would the election in Buckingham been postponed if one of the candidates had expired - is there some rule to that effect?
Yes. If a candidate dies, the election is postponed.
That, together with the radio silence of late, suggests that an EU-approved deal is in the offing.
And at that point reality will become nine tenths of the law and no one will dare vote against it.
That’s when May will make her boldest move to date to head off any risk of Corbyn bringing her down over it.
Don't be silly.
Even May would never assassinate Corbyn
Or at least, not over something so trivial as the EU.
I have wondered if Farage will have a bad road accident? I think he is far more difficult to tame than Corbyn. Without Farage UKIP would just be a tiny fringe party. I think September would be the month for Farage to be taken out.
Farages plane crashed already. He was pulled out of the wreckage.
Was a blue box or DeLorean seen nearby?
He was lucky to get out of that! He is like a cat with nine lives, my thinking is his luck has to run out at some point. He has survived Cancer, the aeroplane crash and a previous alleged attempt on his life. On the aeroplane crash, I often wondered whether Bercow would still be Speaker as the election for Buckingham in 2010 could well have been posponed if Farage had gone to meet his maker!
Why would the election in Buckingham been postponed if one of the candidates had expired - is there some rule to that effect?
Yes. If a candidate dies, the election is postponed.
That, together with the radio silence of late, suggests that an EU-approved deal is in the offing.
And at that point reality will become nine tenths of the law and no one will dare vote against it.
That’s when May will make her boldest move to date to head off any risk of Corbyn bringing her down over it.
Don't be silly.
Even May would never assassinate Corbyn
Or at least, not over something so trivial as the EU.
I have wondered if Farage will have a bad road accident? I think he is far more difficult to tame than Corbyn. Without Farage UKIP would just be a tiny fringe party. I think September would be the month for Farage to be taken out.
Farages plane crashed already. He was pulled out of the wreckage.
Was a blue box or DeLorean seen nearby?
He was lucky to get out of that! He is like a cat with nine lives, my thinking is his luck has to run out at some point. He has survived Cancer, the aeroplane crash and a previous alleged attempt on his life. On the aeroplane crash, I often wondered whether Bercow would still be Speaker as the election for Buckingham in 2010 could well have been posponed if Farage had gone to meet his maker!
Why would the election in Buckingham been postponed if one of the candidates had expired - is there some rule to that effect?
Yes a couple of Tory MPs had to wait for a new election in Thirsk and Malton in 2010 and Staffordshire South in 2005 when a subsequent postponed election due to the death of one of the main political parties candidate occured. My thinking is a Farage death would have qualified in Buckingham in 2010 but as it was on election day it is difficult to know what would have happened.
I see someone grabbed the rest of the 1.89 to lay !
You can see why.
It would be hilarious if they lose to the Centre Party.
EDIT confused the moderate party with the centre party.
Reading them up, the moderates seem to be broadly Cameron Conservatives and the Centre party a bit like the Cleggite/Orange book Lib Dems. Edit: Blimey the 'Liberals' are close to that space as well. You can see why the leader of the moderates has a good shot at being PM whilst they're outsiders for Most seats.
Ok calling United’s challenge for the title now. Not going to happen. Same rubbish as last season. Early goal, hanging on, careless in possession, brilliant goalkeeper, running serious risk of throwing points away at home by not even trying to kill the game with more goals.
I can see Mourinho's point tbh, would you prefer a Poch third or a Klopp 4th like the press pack ?
What I love about BINO is that it satisfies nobody but hardliners will prefer it to Remain and pro-EUers will prefer to the more extreme versions that have been proposed. We will be out of the EU in name , we won't have a say but key sectors of the economy will be largely unaffected.
Ok calling United’s challenge for the title now. Not going to happen. Same rubbish as last season. Early goal, hanging on, careless in possession, brilliant goalkeeper, running serious risk of throwing points away at home by not even trying to kill the game with more goals.
I can see Mourinho's point tbh, would you prefer a Poch third or a Klopp 4th like the press pack ?
I will be amazed if Liverpool do not finish ahead of United this season. We are going to drop too many points in games we should have finished off. It’s depressing.
What I love about BINO is that it satisfies nobody but hardliners will prefer it to Remain and pro-EUers will prefer to the more extreme versions that have been proposed. We will be out of the EU in name , we won't have a say but key sectors of the economy will be largely unaffected.
I wonder if the Eurosceptics will still be able to bang on about Europe? Suspect it will all wear terribly thin with the general population who will regocnise we are no longer members.
What I love about BINO is that it satisfies nobody but hardliners will prefer it to Remain and pro-EUers will prefer to the more extreme versions that have been proposed. We will be out of the EU in name , we won't have a say but key sectors of the economy will be largely unaffected.
Frankly any non catastrophic outcome including bino will have me turning cartwheels. I think you will find that lots of frit moderates on both sides feel the same way.
What I love about BINO is that it satisfies nobody but hardliners will prefer it to Remain and pro-EUers will prefer to the more extreme versions that have been proposed. We will be out of the EU in name , we won't have a say but key sectors of the economy will be largely unaffected.
I wonder if the Eurosceptics will still be able to bang on about Europe? Suspect it will all wear terribly thin with the general population who will regocnise we are no longer members.
I would think it will reduce in importance for a time at least - it depends on how satisfactory it is in practice, and depending on who is in government and if they are actively pursuing further divergence, maintaining the new status quo or seeking to bind us even closer. In the short term I think many people will react as you suggest, and, assuming a deal is made (which I am still skeptical about) that reaction will enable the Tories to keep going despite what would surely be an intense reaction and probably more hits in the polling from the more intense brexiters. The mass population may not be able to be as fired up if there is a clear separation from the EU, even if it is not much of one.
In the long term if the fudge does not address the concerns people had, and those are still felt to be as a result of being too close to the EU, which it will be many, then it will come back just as strong.
What I love about BINO is that it satisfies nobody but hardliners will prefer it to Remain and pro-EUers will prefer to the more extreme versions that have been proposed. We will be out of the EU in name , we won't have a say but key sectors of the economy will be largely unaffected.
Frankly any non catastrophic outcome including bino will have me turning cartwheels. I think you will find that lots of frit moderates on both sides feel the same way.
Yes, I'm one of the 10-15% (or whatever it is) who supports the "Chequers Deal" or another variant of Soft Brexit. It is the only way of avoiding both an economic disaster (which we'd get through Hard Brexit) and a democratic disaster (reversing Brexit altogether).
What I love about BINO is that it satisfies nobody but hardliners will prefer it to Remain and pro-EUers will prefer to the more extreme versions that have been proposed. We will be out of the EU in name , we won't have a say but key sectors of the economy will be largely unaffected.
May's BINO is if anything closer to what voters wanted Cameron to have negotiated before the referendum but which he could not ie stay in the single market for goods but some tighter controls on free movement mirroring the transition controls Blair also should have imposed in 2004 with a requirement for a job offer on arrival in the UK.
What I love about BINO is that it satisfies nobody but hardliners will prefer it to Remain and pro-EUers will prefer to the more extreme versions that have been proposed. We will be out of the EU in name , we won't have a say but key sectors of the economy will be largely unaffected.
Frankly any non catastrophic outcome including bino will have me turning cartwheels. I think you will find that lots of frit moderates on both sides feel the same way.
Yes, I'm one of the 10-15% (or whatever it is) who supports the "Chequers Deal" or another variant of Soft Brexit. It is the only way of avoiding both an economic disaster (which we'd get through Hard Brexit) and a democratic disaster (reversing Brexit altogether).
I'd go for it. But I object to the suggestion I am frit. I'm not frit, I'm just desperately panicking.
What I love about BINO is that it satisfies nobody but hardliners will prefer it to Remain and pro-EUers will prefer to the more extreme versions that have been proposed. We will be out of the EU in name , we won't have a say but key sectors of the economy will be largely unaffected.
I wonder if the Eurosceptics will still be able to bang on about Europe? Suspect it will all wear terribly thin with the general population who will regocnise we are no longer members.
As soon as the EU do something that affects us and we can not react the conflict will flare up all over again. Do not say they will be all nice and cuddly, when we were full members they tried to move Euro clearing from the UK. We would last no more than 5 years in BINO.
What I love about BINO is that it satisfies nobody but hardliners will prefer it to Remain and pro-EUers will prefer to the more extreme versions that have been proposed. We will be out of the EU in name , we won't have a say but key sectors of the economy will be largely unaffected.
I would rather Remain than have a shite BINO. While No Deal is better than a bad deal, so is No Brexit.
Brussels is reportedly set to allow the UK to stay in the single market for goods withut having free movement. This is a departure from its previous position that the four freedoms - goods, services, money and people - cannot be separated, or 'cherry picked'.
What the EU wants in return:
The bloc is insisting that Britain agreed to adopt all future EU environmental and social protections. It is trying to stop the UK breaking away and changing laws to give it a competitive edge. But agreeing to the demand would seriously undermine the UK's ability to strike free trade deals globally on things like agricultural products.'
On Cameron's feeble "renegotiation", does anyone (except maybe Richard Nabavi) still think it added up to anything? Wilson, Thatcher, Major and Blair (possibly not Brown though) had all achieved more significant "concessions" from Europe to Britain than Cameron did, with a lot less fanfare.
Honestly I think Remain could've squeaked out a win without the "renegotiation"; that whole charade made swing voters wrongly think "that's the best we can ever expect to gain?!"
Farages plane crashed already. He was pulled out of the wreckage.
Was a blue box or DeLorean seen nearby?
He was lucky to get out of that! He is like a cat with nine lives, my thinking is his luck has to run out at some point. He has survived Cancer, the aeroplane crash and a previous alleged attempt on his life. On the aeroplane crash, I often wondered whether Bercow would still be Speaker as the election for Buckingham in 2010 could well have been posponed if Farage had gone to meet his maker!
Why would the election in Buckingham been postponed if one of the candidates had expired - is there some rule to that effect?
Yes a couple of Tory MPs had to wait for a new election in Thirsk and Malton in 2010 and Staffordshire South in 2005 when a subsequent postponed election due to the death of one of the main political parties candidate occured. My thinking is a Farage death would have qualified in Buckingham in 2010 but as it was on election day it is difficult to know what would have happened.
A quick google finds this advice from the EC for the 2015 GE which says that if a deceased Parliamentary candidate is an independent, then the election caries on as if nothing has happened, except that if the deceased independent wins, a new election must be called. If the deceased candidate was nominated by a registered political party, though, then the election is halted and a new one called, but the nominations for all the non-deceased candidates remaining valid for the new poll unless they withdraw.
Now the interesting thing is that the Acting Returning Officer is required to follow these procedures once he or she has received "proof" of the death of a candidate, and this can happen at any point during polling or counting, and so by inference any time up to the declaration of the result. So if Farage had died, and if the ARO of Buckingham received proof of the event during polling or the count, they would have been required to halt the polling or counting.
The guidance does not appear to define "proof" of the death of a candidate, but it does refer to the ARO being "satisfied" that the candidate has died which suggests the ARO would be expected to act reasonably - it doesn't read to me (although IANAL) that e.g. the ARO could refuse to halt the polling or count until they get a signed death certificate if it's clear the candidate is dead.
That is for the 2015 GE, so things may have been different in 2010, but wasn't the current legislation for conducting elections passed before 2010?
Hammond eyes an 'Amazon tax' is really the big story there in policy terms.
That would likely be very popular too as well as giving Amazon's rivals more of a chance to compete it would also ensure Amazon is paying its fair share in tax to the Treasury.
Hammond eyes an 'Amazon tax' is really the big story there in policy terms.
That would likely be very popular too as well as giving Amazon's rivals more of a chance to compete it would also ensure Amazon is paying its fair share in tax to the Treasury.
If it is that easy, and it would be popular, why hasn't it been done before? I smell a complication somewhere.
That, together with the radio silence of late, suggests that an EU-approved deal is in the offing.
And at that point reality will become nine tenths of the law and no one will dare vote against it.
That’s when May will make her boldest move to date to head off any risk of Corbyn bringing her down over it.
Don't be silly.
Even May would never assassinate Corbyn
Or at least, not over something so trivial as the EU.
I have wondered if Farage will have a bad road accident? I think he is far more difficult to tame than Corbyn. Without Farage UKIP would just be a tiny fringe party. I think September would be the month for Farage to be taken out.
Farages plane crashed already. He was pulled out of the wreckage.
Was a blue box or DeLorean seen nearby?
He was lucky to get out of that! He is like a cat with nine lives, my thinking is his luck has to run out at some point. He has survived Cancer, the aeroplane crash and a previous alleged attempt on his life. On the aeroplane crash, I often wondered whether Bercow would still be Speaker as the election for Buckingham in 2010 could well have been posponed if Farage had gone to meet his maker!
Why would the election in Buckingham been postponed if one of the candidates had expired - is there some rule to that effect?
Yes. If a candidate dies, the election is postponed.
Unless they are an independent i.e no party.
Which is an slightly odd quirk, but probably makes sense when you think about it.
Hammond eyes an 'Amazon tax' is really the big story there in policy terms.
That would likely be very popular too as well as giving Amazon's rivals more of a chance to compete it would also ensure Amazon is paying its fair share in tax to the Treasury.
When are we going to be free of these socialists that want to tax business that is successful,
Hammond eyes an 'Amazon tax' is really the big story there in policy terms.
That would likely be very popular too as well as giving Amazon's rivals more of a chance to compete it would also ensure Amazon is paying its fair share in tax to the Treasury.
If it is that easy, and it would be popular, why hasn't it been done before? I smell a complication somewhere.
Yeh, it's call trying to align tax policy across multiple states.
Oh wait, that's the kind of crap the EU does right? And we hate the EU 'cos it is killing go-getting entrepreneurs through red tape.
What I love about BINO is that it satisfies nobody but hardliners will prefer it to Remain and pro-EUers will prefer to the more extreme versions that have been proposed. We will be out of the EU in name , we won't have a say but key sectors of the economy will be largely unaffected.
What I love about BINO is that it satisfies nobody but hardliners will prefer it to Remain and pro-EUers will prefer to the more extreme versions that have been proposed. We will be out of the EU in name , we won't have a say but key sectors of the economy will be largely unaffected.
And let no one dare whisper: "was it worth it?"
That would involve great swathes of the British people admitting "I was wrong" to themselves. Don't hold your breath!
Hammond eyes an 'Amazon tax' is really the big story there in policy terms.
That would likely be very popular too as well as giving Amazon's rivals more of a chance to compete it would also ensure Amazon is paying its fair share in tax to the Treasury.
If it is that easy, and it would be popular, why hasn't it been done before? I smell a complication somewhere.
It is only recently Amazon has got so dominant while using tax loopholes to reduce its bill.
Amazon is now second only to Apple in Wall Street stock market value and just ahead of Alphabet (Google's owner) with Microsoft now 4th
Hammond eyes an 'Amazon tax' is really the big story there in policy terms.
That would likely be very popular too as well as giving Amazon's rivals more of a chance to compete it would also ensure Amazon is paying its fair share in tax to the Treasury.
If it is that easy, and it would be popular, why hasn't it been done before? I smell a complication somewhere.
Hammond indicated the UK, Germany and France have agreed to act together quickly pending more widescale international agreement. Assume they are considering a turnover tax and it would be very popular
He is due to announce details in his Autumn statement
Hammond eyes an 'Amazon tax' is really the big story there in policy terms.
That would likely be very popular too as well as giving Amazon's rivals more of a chance to compete it would also ensure Amazon is paying its fair share in tax to the Treasury.
If it is that easy, and it would be popular, why hasn't it been done before? I smell a complication somewhere.
It is only recently Amazon has got so dominant while using tax loopholes to reduce its bill.
Amazon is now second only to Apple in Wall Street stock market value and just ahead of Alphabet (Google's owner)
On Cameron's feeble "renegotiation", does anyone (except maybe Richard Nabavi) anyone still think it added up to anything? Wilson, Thatcher, Major and Blair (possibly not Brown though) had all achieved more significant "concessions" from Europe to Britain than Cameron did.
Honestly I think Remain could've squeaked out a win without the "renegotiation"; that whole charade made swing voters wrongly think "that's the best we can ever expect to gain?!"
What did Blair get out of the EU? From my memory the only concessions Blair achieved were to the EU! I don't recall any rebates, opt-outs or subsidiarity from Blair.
Cameron did achieve some concessions but obviously this was not enough. The problem with the EU is it is a rules based construct that can only be pushed so far, so he was only ever going to achieve a superficial victory.
I think the UK probably had the optimum deal after Cameron's negotiation that is achievable within the EU. It has to be remembered that should we stay on in the EU with Cameron's deal, it is still better than the Chequers plan, No deal or anything else currently on the table.
Maybe to use the current PM's mantra of 'No deal is better than a bad deal' is true if we just fold and stay on in the EU on Cameron's terms of negotiation. The Brexiteers in charge until recently fashioned a worse deal than we have at the moment or inferior to Cameron's terms.
Hammond eyes an 'Amazon tax' is really the big story there in policy terms.
That would likely be very popular too as well as giving Amazon's rivals more of a chance to compete it would also ensure Amazon is paying its fair share in tax to the Treasury.
If it is that easy, and it would be popular, why hasn't it been done before? I smell a complication somewhere.
It is only recently Amazon has got so dominant while using tax loopholes to reduce its bill.
Amazon is now second only to Apple in Wall Street stock market value and just ahead of Alphabet (Google's owner)
Hammond eyes an 'Amazon tax' is really the big story there in policy terms.
That would likely be very popular too as well as giving Amazon's rivals more of a chance to compete it would also ensure Amazon is paying its fair share in tax to the Treasury.
When are we going to be free of these socialists that want to tax business that is successful,
It is not taxing out of envy, it is ensuring tax avoidance is reduced and Amazon's competitors can compete with it fairly
Even Trump tweeted "Amazon is doing great damage to tax paying retailers. Towns, cities and states throughout the U.S. are being hurt - many jobs being lost!"
Comments
Similarly I could get a threesome with Margot Robbie and Maria Sharapova.
But India get 200?
They aren't interested. Which shows a stupid lack of vision on their part.
- Remain and join the Euro/Schengen etc
- Remain as we are
- Leave with Chequers
I think that would be a big majority for the middle option.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/life/sarah-champion-mp-nightmare-since-spoke-child-sex-abuse-rings/
And at that point reality will become nine tenths of the law and no one will dare vote against it.
Given no FoM means no Single Market or Customs Union was Cameron ever going to come back with a deal which meant de facto leaving?
I suspect as soon as he started his "odyssey", Cameron knew he was in trouble. The kind of meaningful reform which would have placated the 40% or so who simply wanted us out whatever and however was just not achievable. Perhaps activating A50 on January 1st 2016 without calling the Referendum would have been the smartest move.
Even May would never assassinate Corbyn
Or at least, not over something so trivial as the EU.
And to be fair, even though I am a staunch Remainer I can see a soft Brexit is probably the only middle ground that could command majority support in the country.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6042765/EU-offer-UK-stay-single-market-goods-without-free-movement.html
Brexit in name only
Or
Boris in naughty outburst
Or
Britain in new own-goal
Was a blue box or DeLorean seen nearby?
Edit: Great minds!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3382294/Nigel-Farage-s-car-wheels-sabotaged-assassination-attempt-Ukip-leader-lost-control-Volvo-wheel-fell-motorway-police-confirm-foul-play.html
Edit: Blimey the 'Liberals' are close to that space as well. You can see why the leader of the moderates has a good shot at being PM whilst they're outsiders for Most seats.
(Thought I'd get that in as it's likely to be the only time that happens this season.)
In the long term if the fudge does not address the concerns people had, and those are still felt to be as a result of being too close to the EU, which it will be many, then it will come back just as strong.
We would last no more than 5 years in BINO.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/10/venezuela-crisis-fuel-driving-census-maduro
www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSIQAKpaR20
Brussels is reportedly set to allow the UK to stay in the single market for goods withut having free movement.
This is a departure from its previous position that the four freedoms - goods, services, money and people - cannot be separated, or 'cherry picked'.
What the EU wants in return:
The bloc is insisting that Britain agreed to adopt all future EU environmental and social protections.
It is trying to stop the UK breaking away and changing laws to give it a competitive edge.
But agreeing to the demand would seriously undermine the UK's ability to strike free trade deals globally on things like agricultural products.'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6042765/EU-offer-UK-stay-single-market-goods-without-free-movement.html
Honestly I think Remain could've squeaked out a win without the "renegotiation"; that whole charade made swing voters wrongly think "that's the best we can ever expect to gain?!"
Now the interesting thing is that the Acting Returning Officer is required to follow these procedures once he or she has received "proof" of the death of a candidate, and this can happen at any point during polling or counting, and so by inference any time up to the declaration of the result. So if Farage had died, and if the ARO of Buckingham received proof of the event during polling or the count, they would have been required to halt the polling or counting.
The guidance does not appear to define "proof" of the death of a candidate, but it does refer to the ARO being "satisfied" that the candidate has died which suggests the ARO would be expected to act reasonably - it doesn't read to me (although IANAL) that e.g. the ARO could refuse to halt the polling or count until they get a signed death certificate if it's clear the candidate is dead.
That is for the 2015 GE, so things may have been different in 2010, but wasn't the current legislation for conducting elections passed before 2010?
That would likely be very popular too as well as giving Amazon's rivals more of a chance to compete it would also ensure Amazon is paying its fair share in tax to the Treasury.
Which is an slightly odd quirk, but probably makes sense when you think about it.
Oh wait, that's the kind of crap the EU does right? And we hate the EU 'cos it is killing go-getting entrepreneurs through red tape.
Amazon is now second only to Apple in Wall Street stock market value and just ahead of Alphabet (Google's owner) with Microsoft now 4th
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/08/05/amazon-google-microsoft-within-striking-distance-joining-apple-wall-street-1-trillion-stock-club/899066002/
He is due to announce details in his Autumn statement
Cameron did achieve some concessions but obviously this was not enough. The problem with the EU is it is a rules based construct that can only be pushed so far, so he was only ever going to achieve a superficial victory.
I think the UK probably had the optimum deal after Cameron's negotiation that is achievable within the EU. It has to be remembered that should we stay on in the EU with Cameron's deal, it is still better than the Chequers plan, No deal or anything else currently on the table.
Maybe to use the current PM's mantra of 'No deal is better than a bad deal' is true if we just fold and stay on in the EU on Cameron's terms of negotiation. The Brexiteers in charge until recently fashioned a worse deal than we have at the moment or inferior to Cameron's terms.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tax_revenue_to_GDP_ratio
I guess its more the wholesale nationalisation of errm everything (Including glass plants - https://www.dwmmag.com/guardians-venezuela-plant-one-year-later-part-2/ ...) rather than any particular tax rate that makes a country a basketcase.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/aug/10/amazon-uk-halves-its-corporation-tax-to-74m-as-sales-soar-to-7bn
Even Trump tweeted "Amazon is doing great damage to tax paying retailers. Towns, cities and states throughout the U.S. are being hurt - many jobs being lost!"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43584764