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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Video Analysis: How Bad Is The US-China Trade Deficit?

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited August 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Video Analysis: How Bad Is The US-China Trade Deficit?

The US runs a trade deficit with China of $375bn. It’s a staggering number, larger than the economies of Ireland or Israel. Little wonder than Donald Trump frets that the US is being taken advantage of.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • I believe this is the government party that Tulip Siddiq campaigned for in her youth and recently went on diplomatic trips with:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/10/none-will-be-spared-students-fear-reprisals-over-bangladesh-unrest
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    I believe this is the government party that Tulip Siddiq campaigned for in her youth and recently went on diplomatic trips with:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/10/none-will-be-spared-students-fear-reprisals-over-bangladesh-unrest

    Isn't Tulip Siddiq the niece of the Bangladeshi Prime Minister?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Another great video - thanks Robert! Trump's increase of tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminium because of the depreciating Turkish Lira has caused further depreciation!
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    The only thing is that China doesn't have a free trading currency.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Questions will be asked - like how the hell was a woman allowed to squeeze into shot?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Former Scottish Labour leader pays for a full page ad in the Jewish Telegraph and accuses Mr Corbyn and his top team of being "intellectually arrogant, emotionally inept and politically maladroit".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45147656

    Death by a thousand cuts.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    In fairness to the Mail (not something I write often...) the Corbyn story looks like a good old fashioned journalistic scoop. When the photo came to light Team Corbyn said 'he was honouring Palestinian martyrs' (of an Israeli air attack near Tunis) - so the Mail sent a journalist and found he was photographed 15m from the 'martyrs' memorial and directly in front of the graves of the Munich terrorists:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6048807/Photos-Labour-leader-Corbyn-tribute-event-Palestine-martyrs-linked-Munich-massacre.html
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771

    The only thing is that China doesn't have a free trading currency.

    The Chinese government is currently intervening (and spending foreign reserves) to prop up the Reminbi.

    There's a bit of a myth that China runs this massive trade surplus, and it's not - in aggregate - true. It's current account as a percentage of GDP is 1.4%, which is lower than Spain (1.7%), Austria (2.1%), Italy (2.9%) and a host of others.

    Even in US Dollar terms, China's surplus is surprisingly small; it's well below Germany or Japan, and is less than twice that of the Netherlands - which is not a very large country. We only really fixate on China's surplus because of the insane US-China number (which is rather misleading).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    Nice and cool today. I'll give the video a look when I'm a bit more awake.

    That Corbyn story looks horrendous. We'll see how much airtime it gets compared to Boris and the burka.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    Good morning, everyone.

    Nice and cool today. I'll give the video a look when I'm a bit more awake.

    That Corbyn story looks horrendous. We'll see how much airtime it gets compared to Boris and the burka.

    Boris and the burka story is terrible for the Tories. Firstly, it allows the thicker Labour supporters to point at the Conservatives and say: "Look, you're just as bad!". Secondly, it diverts media attention away from the mire that Corbyn has led the Labour party into.

    He's interrupted the enemy making a mistake. Deliberately.

    (Oh, and welcome from sunny Falkirk.)
    (I might be joking about the 'sunny' bit.)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Jessop, indeed, politically it's idiotic to give Labour/Corbyn cover like that.

    However, that still means the media has to either be inept or openly partisan if they don't give the Corbyn story (the most recent one about the graves) substantial prominence.

    As an aside, it's disturbing Cressida Dick decided her officers should look into whether Boris committed a criminal offence. As Elizabeth I said to Lord Melchitt, we can't lock people up for being stupid. If we imprisoned people for being stupid Nursie would've been in prison all her life.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821

    Former Scottish Labour leader pays for a full page ad in the Jewish Telegraph and accuses Mr Corbyn and his top team of being "intellectually arrogant, emotionally inept and politically maladroit".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45147656

    Death by a thousand cuts.

    Murphy is the incompetent former leader of the Labour party's Scottish branch office who nearly lost the IndyRef and who presided over the loss of 40 of the 41 Labour seats at Westminster at GE 2015. He is 10 times more "intellectually arrogant, emotionally inept and politically maladroit" than Corbyn.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    I don’t wish to get anyone into trouble, so mods please delete, if necessary, but I gather all the evidence in the Stokes case has been given. but AFAIK we haven’t heard from the two men the row was supposed to be about. Or have we and I missed it?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,082

    Mr. Jessop, indeed, politically it's idiotic to give Labour/Corbyn cover like that.

    However, that still means the media has to either be inept or openly partisan if they don't give the Corbyn story (the most recent one about the graves) substantial prominence.

    As an aside, it's disturbing Cressida Dick decided her officers should look into whether Boris committed a criminal offence. As Elizabeth I said to Lord Melchitt, we can't lock people up for being stupid. If we imprisoned people for being stupid Nursie would've been in prison all her life.

    I believe there was a complaint. This allows the media to say that the "police looked into it", because they have to, this being their job.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,282

    kle4 said:

    JRM front page of the online Telegraph supporting Boris leadership.
    Looks like it maybe game on.

    Entirely unsurprising move from JRM there. How does he explain not moving earlier so Boris has time to actually, you know, do something?
    At least GE 2021, Bozza vs Jezza; no voter could wail, 'they are all the same.'
    Yes. They'd both offer very different brands of racism, lies, and narcissism.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    daodao said:

    Former Scottish Labour leader pays for a full page ad in the Jewish Telegraph and accuses Mr Corbyn and his top team of being "intellectually arrogant, emotionally inept and politically maladroit".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45147656

    Death by a thousand cuts.

    Murphy is the incompetent former leader of the Labour party's Scottish branch office who nearly lost the IndyRef and who presided over the loss of 40 of the 41 Labour seats at Westminster at GE 2015. He is 10 times more "intellectually arrogant, emotionally inept and politically maladroit" than Corbyn.
    We are, are we not, allowed to learn from our mistakes. Just saying!
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    I've just bet at 7.4 on Betfair that Corbyn will be out this year
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,082

    daodao said:

    Former Scottish Labour leader pays for a full page ad in the Jewish Telegraph and accuses Mr Corbyn and his top team of being "intellectually arrogant, emotionally inept and politically maladroit".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45147656

    Death by a thousand cuts.

    Murphy is the incompetent former leader of the Labour party's Scottish branch office who nearly lost the IndyRef and who presided over the loss of 40 of the 41 Labour seats at Westminster at GE 2015. He is 10 times more "intellectually arrogant, emotionally inept and politically maladroit" than Corbyn.
    We are, are we not, allowed to learn from our mistakes. Just saying!
    Nevertheless, the cynical and complacent machine politicians of Scottish Labour who took the voters for granted and ran some appalling local authorities don't have a lot of high ground on which to stand.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Is there a coherent Corbynite rebuttal of the Mail’s story? I’ve seen some vehement assertion but no explanation of the apparent photographic evidence.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Smithson, interesting bet. Are you counting on resignation rather than a PLP revolt and a rather better leadership challenge than last time?

    Also, aren't the far left trying to permanently embugger the rules so that they're all but guaranteed another far left candidate next time? Corbyn may want to wait for that to go through, if possible.

    Mr. B2, hmm.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    edited August 2018
    daodao said:

    Murphy is the incompetent former leader of the Labour party's Scottish branch office who nearly lost the IndyRef and who presided over the loss of 40 of the 41 Labour seats at Westminster at GE 2015.

    I think you will find Johann Lamont and Anas Sarwar were in charge for the Indyref.

    I think you will further find Alistair Darling was managing the campaign.

    I also think you will find the side Labour were supporting in the Indyref won by ten points.
  • I've just bet at 7.4 on Betfair that Corbyn will be out this year

    He's staying. Photography isn't evidence. Video isn't evidence. It's all a lie.

    Thats not a defence btw, thats what us Labour activists will be told to say on the doorstep if it gets raised...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Pioneers, that's my view, at the moment.

    Corbyn's acolytes show all the critical thinking of Brian's followers when they asked: "How shall we **** off, o lord?"
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751

    I've just bet at 7.4 on Betfair that Corbyn will be out this year

    He's staying. Photography isn't evidence. Video isn't evidence. It's all a lie.

    Thats not a defence btw, thats what us Labour activists will be told to say on the doorstep if it gets raised...
    We are at war with Eastasia. We have always been at war with Eastasia...
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821

    daodao said:

    Former Scottish Labour leader pays for a full page ad in the Jewish Telegraph and accuses Mr Corbyn and his top team of being "intellectually arrogant, emotionally inept and politically maladroit".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45147656

    Death by a thousand cuts.

    Murphy is the incompetent former leader of the Labour party's Scottish branch office who nearly lost the IndyRef and who presided over the loss of 40 of the 41 Labour seats at Westminster at GE 2015. He is 10 times more "intellectually arrogant, emotionally inept and politically maladroit" than Corbyn.
    We are, are we not, allowed to learn from our mistakes. Just saying!
    I wonder whether Murphy's views have been influenced by the ethnic composition of his former constituency (East Renfrewshire), but he is now an irrelevance.
  • I've just bet at 7.4 on Betfair that Corbyn will be out this year

    He's staying. Photography isn't evidence. Video isn't evidence. It's all a lie.

    Thats not a defence btw, thats what us Labour activists will be told to say on the doorstep if it gets raised...

    Yep. But the stories will keep on coming. There’s 40 years of them out there. All but those in the cult understand that this precludes Corbyn ever being PM, but what do they care? When you’ve never needed a Labour government or feared a Tory one you have different priorities.

  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,282

    Is there a coherent Corbynite rebuttal of the Mail’s story? I’ve seen some vehement assertion but no explanation of the apparent photographic evidence.

    No. The current line is to stick with Jezza's claim that it was for the 47 who died...etc...even though the pictures show this to be a lie, and his own words in 2014 contradict this. His best defence, which they haven't got round to conceding yet, is that he was led to believe it was the airstrike and unknowingly honoured the terrorists. Oh dear..

    It's amazing how supporting Corbyn corrodes the soul of otherwise decent people. I hope Fleet Street's finest are well on their way to contacting some of the blokes in that photo to show them what they are turning themselves into by defending this dismal individual.
  • Is there a coherent Corbynite rebuttal of the Mail’s story? I’ve seen some vehement assertion but no explanation of the apparent photographic evidence.

    Why is one necessary? The only electorate Corbyn and co are interested in is the Labour membership. And for enough of that one “It’s a Daily Mail lie” will suffice.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Is there a coherent Corbynite rebuttal of the Mail’s story? I’ve seen some vehement assertion but no explanation of the apparent photographic evidence.

    Even from the Mail's story, or the online version, this is based on an old Sunday Times report, and Corbyn's own contemporary account in the Morning Star when he claimed to be honouring a different set of graves.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    ydoethur said:

    daodao said:

    Murphy is the incompetent former leader of the Labour party's Scottish branch office who nearly lost the IndyRef and who presided over the loss of 40 of the 41 Labour seats at Westminster at GE 2015.

    I think you will find Johann Lamont and Anas Sarwar were in charge for the Indyref.

    I think you will further find Alistair Darling was managing the campaign.

    I also think you will find the side Labour were supporting in the Indyref won by ten points.
    After starting more than 40 points ahead.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    daodao said:

    Murphy is the incompetent former leader of the Labour party's Scottish branch office who nearly lost the IndyRef and who presided over the loss of 40 of the 41 Labour seats at Westminster at GE 2015.

    I think you will find Johann Lamont and Anas Sarwar were in charge for the Indyref.

    I think you will further find Alistair Darling was managing the campaign.

    I also think you will find the side Labour were supporting in the Indyref won by ten points.
    After starting more than 40 points ahead.
    You are I take it referring to the Ashcroft poll (26-65) from March 2013?

    Can I gently point out however that the gap after the referendum was actually called was around 7-12 points, with a few outliers either way. So it doesn't look like the campaigns - even the cakeist campaign by Yes, which offered full independence, free trade, EU membership (ironically) and a currency union - made a significant difference?
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    I've just bet at 7.4 on Betfair that Corbyn will be out this year

    He's staying. Photography isn't evidence. Video isn't evidence. It's all a lie.

    Thats not a defence btw, thats what us Labour activists will be told to say on the doorstep if it gets raised...
    And you are happy to be part of a party that tells you to lie to voters?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    eek said:

    I've just bet at 7.4 on Betfair that Corbyn will be out this year

    He's staying. Photography isn't evidence. Video isn't evidence. It's all a lie.

    Thats not a defence btw, thats what us Labour activists will be told to say on the doorstep if it gets raised...
    And you are happy to be part of a party that tells you to lie to voters?
    Is there a party out there that doesn't lie to voters?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    rcs1000 said:

    The only thing is that China doesn't have a free trading currency.

    The Chinese government is currently intervening (and spending foreign reserves) to prop up the Reminbi.

    There's a bit of a myth that China runs this massive trade surplus, and it's not - in aggregate - true. It's current account as a percentage of GDP is 1.4%, which is lower than Spain (1.7%), Austria (2.1%), Italy (2.9%) and a host of others.

    Even in US Dollar terms, China's surplus is surprisingly small; it's well below Germany or Japan, and is less than twice that of the Netherlands - which is not a very large country. We only really fixate on China's surplus because of the insane US-China number (which is rather misleading).
    Very good video.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    I've just bet at 7.4 on Betfair that Corbyn will be out this year

    Why?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574

    Good morning, everyone.

    Nice and cool today. I'll give the video a look when I'm a bit more awake.

    That Corbyn story looks horrendous. We'll see how much airtime it gets compared to Boris and the burka.

    Boris and the burka story is terrible for the Tories. Firstly, it allows the thicker Labour supporters to point at the Conservatives and say: "Look, you're just as bad!". Secondly, it diverts media attention away from the mire that Corbyn has led the Labour party into.

    He's interrupted the enemy making a mistake. Deliberately.....
    Even for Tories who aren’t disturbed by racist dog whistles, that ought to give them pause.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Royale, indeed, also enjoyed Mr. 1000's video.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    In fairness to the Mail (not something I write often...) the Corbyn story looks like a good old fashioned journalistic scoop. When the photo came to light Team Corbyn said 'he was honouring Palestinian martyrs' (of an Israeli air attack near Tunis) - so the Mail sent a journalist and found he was photographed 15m from the 'martyrs' memorial and directly in front of the graves of the Munich terrorists:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6048807/Photos-Labour-leader-Corbyn-tribute-event-Palestine-martyrs-linked-Munich-massacre.html

    A good old-fashioned journalistic scoop which they read about in the 2017 Sunday Times report credited in the Mail story you link to. The Mail also acknowledges Corbyn wrote about it at the time in the Morning Star, where he gave a different spin. Since this was before Corbyn became leader or anyone even dreamt he could, and since Corbyn was preaching to the choir, why doubt what he said at the time?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748

    Former Scottish Labour leader pays for a full page ad in the Jewish Telegraph and accuses Mr Corbyn and his top team of being "intellectually arrogant, emotionally inept and politically maladroit".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45147656

    Death by a thousand cuts.

    As has been pointed out on twitter (& not just by Nats), Jim 'presided over a reduction in SLab MPs of 97.5%' Murphy should probably wind his neck in when it comes to "intellectually arrogant, emotionally inept and politically maladroit".

    A salutary reminder that we all get it wrong sometimes.

    'What makes Jim Murphy so dangerous to the SNP is that for the first time in years LAB has a credible alternative First Minister'

    https://tinyurl.com/q24mmhc
  • eek said:

    I've just bet at 7.4 on Betfair that Corbyn will be out this year

    He's staying. Photography isn't evidence. Video isn't evidence. It's all a lie.

    Thats not a defence btw, thats what us Labour activists will be told to say on the doorstep if it gets raised...
    And you are happy to be part of a party that tells you to lie to voters?

    The alternative to Labour is a party that turns a blind eye as its MPs cuddle up to a white supremacist. The only way to stop the likes of Johnson, Rees Mogg and co running - and ruining - the country for years to come is to seek to wrest control of the Labour party from the far left. And you can’t do that by walking away from the opportunity to vote in internal Labour party elections.

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    eek said:

    I've just bet at 7.4 on Betfair that Corbyn will be out this year

    He's staying. Photography isn't evidence. Video isn't evidence. It's all a lie.

    Thats not a defence btw, thats what us Labour activists will be told to say on the doorstep if it gets raised...
    And you are happy to be part of a party that tells you to lie to voters?
    Anybody who was that squeamish wouldn't be in any political party.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    daodao said:

    daodao said:

    Former Scottish Labour leader pays for a full page ad in the Jewish Telegraph and accuses Mr Corbyn and his top team of being "intellectually arrogant, emotionally inept and politically maladroit".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45147656

    Death by a thousand cuts.

    Murphy is the incompetent former leader of the Labour party's Scottish branch office who nearly lost the IndyRef and who presided over the loss of 40 of the 41 Labour seats at Westminster at GE 2015. He is 10 times more "intellectually arrogant, emotionally inept and politically maladroit" than Corbyn.
    We are, are we not, allowed to learn from our mistakes. Just saying!
    I wonder whether Murphy's views have been influenced by the ethnic composition of his former constituency (East Renfrewshire), but he is now an irrelevance.
    You’re the unpleasant Putin apologist and Jew baiter who deliberately referred to the “Jewish Alan Greenspan” aren’t you.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    daodao said:

    Murphy is the incompetent former leader of the Labour party's Scottish branch office who nearly lost the IndyRef and who presided over the loss of 40 of the 41 Labour seats at Westminster at GE 2015.

    I think you will find Johann Lamont and Anas Sarwar were in charge for the Indyref.

    I think you will further find Alistair Darling was managing the campaign.

    I also think you will find the side Labour were supporting in the Indyref won by ten points.
    After starting more than 40 points ahead.
    You are I take it referring to the Ashcroft poll (26-65) from March 2013?

    Can I gently point out however that the gap after the referendum was actually called was around 7-12 points, with a few outliers either way. So it doesn't look like the campaigns - even the cakeist campaign by Yes, which offered full independence, free trade, EU membership (ironically) and a currency union - made a significant difference?
    7-12? Even if you are using the yesmno figures with don't knows included to reduce the gap the when the Edinburgh Agreement was signed the 3 polls either side were a gap of 24,25,24,8, 26,18 (spot the outlier) .

    The first time we get a run of single figure No leads is March-April 2014.

    If you want a grapah on this to show how dumb the statement that there was no change in the polling on independence then I would be happy to oblige.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    daodao said:

    Former Scottish Labour leader pays for a full page ad in the Jewish Telegraph and accuses Mr Corbyn and his top team of being "intellectually arrogant, emotionally inept and politically maladroit".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45147656

    Death by a thousand cuts.

    Murphy is the incompetent former leader of the Labour party's Scottish branch office who nearly lost the IndyRef and who presided over the loss of 40 of the 41 Labour seats at Westminster at GE 2015. He is 10 times more "intellectually arrogant, emotionally inept and politically maladroit" than Corbyn.
    THAT'S your rebuttal?
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited August 2018
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    I've just bet at 7.4 on Betfair that Corbyn will be out this year

    He's staying. Photography isn't evidence. Video isn't evidence. It's all a lie.

    Thats not a defence btw, thats what us Labour activists will be told to say on the doorstep if it gets raised...
    And you are happy to be part of a party that tells you to lie to voters?
    Is there a party out there that doesn't lie to voters?
    There’s a difference between lying by omission and active positive lying. The most recent refendum should have taught us that.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Observer, if Corbyn's still there six months from a General Election, or there's a challenge (which fails) with insufficient time for another before said election, will you stay in Labour?

    I do sympathise with your predicament, but unless Corbyn leaves/is removed there'll come a point where the only thing your subs and any door knocking you do will be on his behalf.
  • Nigelb said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Nice and cool today. I'll give the video a look when I'm a bit more awake.

    That Corbyn story looks horrendous. We'll see how much airtime it gets compared to Boris and the burka.

    Boris and the burka story is terrible for the Tories. Firstly, it allows the thicker Labour supporters to point at the Conservatives and say: "Look, you're just as bad!". Secondly, it diverts media attention away from the mire that Corbyn has led the Labour party into.

    He's interrupted the enemy making a mistake. Deliberately.....
    Even for Tories who aren’t disturbed by racist dog whistles, that ought to give them pause.
    Islam is not a race...
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821

    Former Scottish Labour leader pays for a full page ad in the Jewish Telegraph and accuses Mr Corbyn and his top team of being "intellectually arrogant, emotionally inept and politically maladroit".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45147656

    Death by a thousand cuts.

    As has been pointed out on twitter (& not just by Nats), Jim 'presided over a reduction in SLab MPs of 97.5%' Murphy should probably wind his neck in when it comes to "intellectually arrogant, emotionally inept and politically maladroit".

    A salutary reminder that we all get it wrong sometimes.

    'What makes Jim Murphy so dangerous to the SNP is that for the first time in years LAB has a credible alternative First Minister'

    https://tinyurl.com/q24mmhc
    +1
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    daodao said:

    Murphy is the incompetent former leader of the Labour party's Scottish branch office who nearly lost the IndyRef and who presided over the loss of 40 of the 41 Labour seats at Westminster at GE 2015.

    I think you will find Johann Lamont and Anas Sarwar were in charge for the Indyref.

    I think you will further find Alistair Darling was managing the campaign.

    I also think you will find the side Labour were supporting in the Indyref won by ten points.
    After starting more than 40 points ahead.
    You are I take it referring to the Ashcroft poll (26-65) from March 2013?

    Can I gently point out however that the gap after the referendum was actually called was around 7-12 points, with a few outliers either way. So it doesn't look like the campaigns - even the cakeist campaign by Yes, which offered full independence, free trade, EU membership (ironically) and a currency union - made a significant difference?
    7-12? Even if you are using the yesmno figures with don't knows included to reduce the gap the when the Edinburgh Agreement was signed the 3 polls either side were a gap of 24,25,24,8, 26,18 (spot the outlier) .

    The first time we get a run of single figure No leads is March-April 2014.

    If you want a grapah on this to show how dumb the statement that there was no change in the polling on independence then I would be happy to oblige.
    My source is UK Polling Report. What's yours?
  • Mr. Observer, if Corbyn's still there six months from a General Election, or there's a challenge (which fails) with insufficient time for another before said election, will you stay in Labour?

    I do sympathise with your predicament, but unless Corbyn leaves/is removed there'll come a point where the only thing your subs and any door knocking you do will be on his behalf.

    I am not knocking on any doors at any stage while Corbyn leads the Labour party.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Another good video Robert. You have a good knack of being able to explain complex and often difficult-to-understand concepts simply and concisely.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Former Scottish Labour leader pays for a full page ad in the Jewish Telegraph and accuses Mr Corbyn and his top team of being "intellectually arrogant, emotionally inept and politically maladroit".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45147656

    Death by a thousand cuts.

    As has been pointed out on twitter (& not just by Nats), Jim 'presided over a reduction in SLab MPs of 97.5%' Murphy should probably wind his neck in when it comes to "intellectually arrogant, emotionally inept and politically maladroit".

    A salutary reminder that we all get it wrong sometimes.

    'What makes Jim Murphy so dangerous to the SNP is that for the first time in years LAB has a credible alternative First Minister'

    https://tinyurl.com/q24mmhc
    Some of the posts in that thread have aged well.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574

    Nigelb said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Nice and cool today. I'll give the video a look when I'm a bit more awake.

    That Corbyn story looks horrendous. We'll see how much airtime it gets compared to Boris and the burka.

    Boris and the burka story is terrible for the Tories. Firstly, it allows the thicker Labour supporters to point at the Conservatives and say: "Look, you're just as bad!". Secondly, it diverts media attention away from the mire that Corbyn has led the Labour party into.

    He's interrupted the enemy making a mistake. Deliberately.....
    Even for Tories who aren’t disturbed by racist dog whistles, that ought to give them pause.
    Islam is not a race...
    Did I say it is ?
    I don’t think you understand the concept of political dog whistle.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    daodao said:

    Murphy is the incompetent former leader of the Labour party's Scottish branch office who nearly lost the IndyRef and who presided over the loss of 40 of the 41 Labour seats at Westminster at GE 2015.

    I think you will find Johann Lamont and Anas Sarwar were in charge for the Indyref.

    I think you will further find Alistair Darling was managing the campaign.

    I also think you will find the side Labour were supporting in the Indyref won by ten points.
    After starting more than 40 points ahead.
    You are I take it referring to the Ashcroft poll (26-65) from March 2013?

    Can I gently point out however that the gap after the referendum was actually called was around 7-12 points, with a few outliers either way. So it doesn't look like the campaigns - even the cakeist campaign by Yes, which offered full independence, free trade, EU membership (ironically) and a currency union - made a significant difference?
    7-12? Even if you are using the yesmno figures with don't knows included to reduce the gap the when the Edinburgh Agreement was signed the 3 polls either side were a gap of 24,25,24,8, 26,18 (spot the outlier) .

    The first time we get a run of single figure No leads is March-April 2014.

    If you want a grapah on this to show how dumb the statement that there was no change in the polling on independence then I would be happy to oblige.
    My source is UK Polling Report. What's yours?
    The Wikipedia page listing all British Poling Council polling for the indy ref.

    What time period are you talking about? I'm going from Edinburgh agreement onwards.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    edited August 2018
    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    daodao said:

    Murphy is the incompetent former leader of the Labour party's Scottish branch office who nearly lost the IndyRef and who presided over the loss of 40 of the 41 Labour seats at Westminster at GE 2015.

    I think you will find Johann Lamont and Anas Sarwar were in charge for the Indyref.

    I think you will further find Alistair Darling was managing the campaign.

    I also think you will find the side Labour were supporting in the Indyref won by ten points.
    After starting more than 40 points ahead.
    You are I take it referring to the Ashcroft poll (26-65) from March 2013?

    Can I gently point out however that the gap after the referendum was actually called was around 7-12 points, with a few outliers either way. So it doesn't look like the campaigns - even the cakeist campaign by Yes, which offered full independence, free trade, EU membership (ironically) and a currency union - made a significant difference?
    7-12? Even if you are using the yesmno figures with don't knows included to reduce the gap the when the Edinburgh Agreement was signed the 3 polls either side were a gap of 24,25,24,8, 26,18 (spot the outlier) .

    The first time we get a run of single figure No leads is March-April 2014.

    If you want a grapah on this to show how dumb the statement that there was no change in the polling on independence then I would be happy to oblige.
    My source is UK Polling Report. What's yours?
    The Wikipedia page listing all British Poling Council polling for the indy ref.

    What time period are you talking about? I'm going from Edinburgh agreement onwards.
    I was going from the May before the vote. The gap for those five months starts at 12 points and with a few outliers each way stays pretty much that level all the way through to the vote.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    It's not hard to understand it at all. Most labour members either don't believe such stories (no matter if they can be proven or not, since in fairness some are exaggerated), think they are overblown, think the other side are even worse, or they don't care at all as they prioritise the good he will do as PM over less positive aspects of his past and present. And of course good old tribalism, the partial source of attacks on him and a big part of the defence of him. Like any organisation and institution the brand becomes more important than anything else. Other parties are not immune, but not everyone has so much baggage and enough hostile opponents to exploit it.

    MPs also fit into these categories since precisely 1 now ex Lab MP don't officially believe he should be PM. The rest do, no matter how much some of them will cry crocodile tears at such stories.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    daodao said:

    Murphy is the incompetent former leader of the Labour party's Scottish branch office who nearly lost the IndyRef and who presided over the loss of 40 of the 41 Labour seats at Westminster at GE 2015.

    I think you will find Johann Lamont and Anas Sarwar were in charge for the Indyref.

    I think you will further find Alistair Darling was managing the campaign.

    I also think you will find the side Labour were supporting in the Indyref won by ten points.
    After starting more than 40 points ahead.
    You are I take it referring to the Ashcroft poll (26-65) from March 2013?

    Can I gently point out however that the gap after the referendum was actually called was around 7-12 points, with a few outliers either way. So it doesn't look like the campaigns - even the cakeist campaign by Yes, which offered full independence, free trade, EU membership (ironically) and a currency union - made a significant difference?
    7-12? Even if you are using the yesmno figures with don't knows included to reduce the gap the when the Edinburgh Agreement was signed the 3 polls either side were a gap of 24,25,24,8, 26,18 (spot the outlier) .

    The first time we get a run of single figure No leads is March-April 2014.

    If you want a grapah on this to show how dumb the statement that there was no change in the polling on independence then I would be happy to oblige.
    My source is UK Polling Report. What's yours?
    The Wikipedia page listing all British Poling Council polling for the indy ref.

    What time period are you talking about? I'm going from Edinburgh agreement onwards.
    I was going from the May before the vote. The gap for those five months starts at 12 points and with a few outliers each way stays pretty much that level all the way through to the vote.
    Well, okay, if you want to ignore the majority of the Independence campaign for your time measure then sure, not as dramatic movement as I stated.

    Even then in May 2014 saw a poll lead of 18%, June saw poll leads of 17, 14, 19%, July and August leads of 13%*3 and 20%.

    It was only September where the lead collapse to consistent single figures (and occasional Yes leads), almost all of which were below your 7% lower boind. The notion the polling was static is simply wrong.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    eek said:

    I've just bet at 7.4 on Betfair that Corbyn will be out this year

    He's staying. Photography isn't evidence. Video isn't evidence. It's all a lie.

    Thats not a defence btw, thats what us Labour activists will be told to say on the doorstep if it gets raised...
    And you are happy to be part of a party that tells you to lie to voters?

    The alternative to Labour is a party that turns a blind eye as its MPs cuddle up to a white supremacist. The only way to stop the likes of Johnson, Rees Mogg and co running - and ruining - the country for years to come is to seek to wrest control of the Labour party from the far left. And you can’t do that by walking away from the opportunity to vote in internal Labour party elections.

    I hope your efforts do not go unrewarded.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Is there a coherent Corbynite rebuttal of the Mail’s story? I’ve seen some vehement assertion but no explanation of the apparent photographic evidence.

    Why is one necessary? The only electorate Corbyn and co are interested in is the Labour membership. And for enough of that one “It’s a Daily Mail lie” will suffice.

    Indeed so. Remarkably effective tactic, on true and false allegations. I put it in the list of political but not partisan behaviours - sometimes one side is clearly worse in using the tactic, sometimes not, but they all use it to a degree.

    And this isn't a 'they're all the same' argument, but it is such an easy fallback to have.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Another day, another corbyn story. Why so many of them in silly season? I guess political wonks need something to keep us occupied in the summer, so it's like throwing on an old sitcom while hoping the new stuff come September will be decent.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Former Scottish Labour leader pays for a full page ad in the Jewish Telegraph and accuses Mr Corbyn and his top team of being "intellectually arrogant, emotionally inept and politically maladroit".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45147656

    Death by a thousand cuts.

    A salutary reminder that we all get it wrong sometimes.
    Speak for yourself - I get it wrong all the time, thank you.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    This is brutal, and thoroughly depressing

    For Tories, the Brexit civil war is teetering on the edge of a full-blown culture war, and this week’s Boris episode captured that neatly. For centrists, whether Labour or Tory, what hurts most is the failure of big figures to articulate their position with confidence and skill. MPs despair as Tory high-ups neurotically control the smallest things but freeze when confronted with the bigger picture.

    The image of party chairman Brandon Lewis evading TV cameras this week, seemingly having lost his voice over Mr Johnson, captured that failure. Labour centrists endure a mirror image of this, paralytically miserable at their inability to edge the party into a tougher position on antisemitism.

    And who would be a Lib Dem? These are all symptoms of the same thing: the low wattage of those who reach the front rank of British politics. Culture wars are becoming easier to fight in Westminster because they obscure the true problem: the sheer lack of quality of those who lead, a topic that can never be discussed in public.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/end-of-days-feel-in-a-westminster-crying-out-for-strong-leadership-7kv3shkmh
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/NTarnopolsky/status/1028069428401975297

    Leaving to one side that Corbyn denied the main plank of the story, who are the nice cuddly terrorist murderers we are supposed to be contrasting this lot with?
  • kle4 said:

    Another day, another corbyn story. Why so many of them in silly season? I guess political wonks need something to keep us occupied in the summer, so it's like throwing on an old sitcom while hoping the new stuff come September will be decent.

    Sky all over this story this morning.

    I think the MSM are like a dog with a bone when they see a story that makes waves and they are not going to let this go anytime soon. Boris ill judged remarks must have the conservative leadership pulling their hair out by interrupting the implosion of Corbyn and his cabal this summer
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    IanB2 said:

    daodao said:

    Former Scottish Labour leader pays for a full page ad in the Jewish Telegraph and accuses Mr Corbyn and his top team of being "intellectually arrogant, emotionally inept and politically maladroit".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45147656

    Death by a thousand cuts.

    Murphy is the incompetent former leader of the Labour party's Scottish branch office who nearly lost the IndyRef and who presided over the loss of 40 of the 41 Labour seats at Westminster at GE 2015. He is 10 times more "intellectually arrogant, emotionally inept and politically maladroit" than Corbyn.
    We are, are we not, allowed to learn from our mistakes. Just saying!
    Nevertheless, the cynical and complacent machine politicians of Scottish Labour who took the voters for granted and ran some appalling local authorities don't have a lot of high ground on which to stand.
    Probably not, although one hopes they all learned some lessons from that political bloodbath rather than taking an easy explanation as the way out.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Scott_P said:

    This is brutal, and thoroughly depressing

    For Tories, the Brexit civil war is teetering on the edge of a full-blown culture war, and this week’s Boris episode captured that neatly. For centrists, whether Labour or Tory, what hurts most is the failure of big figures to articulate their position with confidence and skill. MPs despair as Tory high-ups neurotically control the smallest things but freeze when confronted with the bigger picture.

    The image of party chairman Brandon Lewis evading TV cameras this week, seemingly having lost his voice over Mr Johnson, captured that failure. Labour centrists endure a mirror image of this, paralytically miserable at their inability to edge the party into a tougher position on antisemitism.

    And who would be a Lib Dem? These are all symptoms of the same thing: the low wattage of those who reach the front rank of British politics. Culture wars are becoming easier to fight in Westminster because they obscure the true problem: the sheer lack of quality of those who lead, a topic that can never be discussed in public.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/end-of-days-feel-in-a-westminster-crying-out-for-strong-leadership-7kv3shkmh

    Dispiriting stuff, and hard to argue. And now it's raining just in time for a walk...sigh, gonna be one of those days.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    OT Crystal Palace seem to have been backed in the last couple of days on the handicaps, presumably because Zaha is still there.
  • Scott_P said:

    This is brutal, and thoroughly depressing

    For Tories, the Brexit civil war is teetering on the edge of a full-blown culture war, and this week’s Boris episode captured that neatly. For centrists, whether Labour or Tory, what hurts most is the failure of big figures to articulate their position with confidence and skill. MPs despair as Tory high-ups neurotically control the smallest things but freeze when confronted with the bigger picture.

    The image of party chairman Brandon Lewis evading TV cameras this week, seemingly having lost his voice over Mr Johnson, captured that failure. Labour centrists endure a mirror image of this, paralytically miserable at their inability to edge the party into a tougher position on antisemitism.

    And who would be a Lib Dem? These are all symptoms of the same thing: the low wattage of those who reach the front rank of British politics. Culture wars are becoming easier to fight in Westminster because they obscure the true problem: the sheer lack of quality of those who lead, a topic that can never be discussed in public.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/end-of-days-feel-in-a-westminster-crying-out-for-strong-leadership-7kv3shkmh

    And succinct
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    NASA sun probe launch aborted. Try again in 24 hours.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    Alistair said:

    Former Scottish Labour leader pays for a full page ad in the Jewish Telegraph and accuses Mr Corbyn and his top team of being "intellectually arrogant, emotionally inept and politically maladroit".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45147656

    Death by a thousand cuts.

    As has been pointed out on twitter (& not just by Nats), Jim 'presided over a reduction in SLab MPs of 97.5%' Murphy should probably wind his neck in when it comes to "intellectually arrogant, emotionally inept and politically maladroit".

    A salutary reminder that we all get it wrong sometimes.

    'What makes Jim Murphy so dangerous to the SNP is that for the first time in years LAB has a credible alternative First Minister'

    https://tinyurl.com/q24mmhc
    Some of the posts in that thread have aged well.
    Aye, the horror being expressed at the prospect of government by Eds M & B is particularly poignant.

    It'd be very bad form to reproduce the best (worst) of them, particularly those of extant PBers, but I couldn't resist this. A world view in one post.

    Plato Posts: 15,724
    December 2014
    Dear me

    RT @Telegraph: Don't say 'Merry Christmas', it might offend someone, says Whitehall guidance ln.is/www.telegraph.…
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    kle4 said:

    Another day, another corbyn story. Why so many of them in silly season? I guess political wonks need something to keep us occupied in the summer, so it's like throwing on an old sitcom while hoping the new stuff come September will be decent.

    Sky all over this story this morning.

    I think the MSM are like a dog with a bone when they see a story that makes waves and they are not going to let this go anytime soon. Boris ill judged remarks must have the conservative leadership pulling their hair out by interrupting the implosion of Corbyn and his cabal this summer
    Sure, but they've been dogs with bones before. Until his core are shaken it's just a meaningless repeat. The prediction someone made that he might row back on the definition business because of this seems reasonable, and that will mean his less bold critics will dial it back again
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    NASA sun probe launch aborted. Try again in 24 hours.

    If NASA delayed for just 12 hours they'd be going in at night which might be easier.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    kle4 said:

    Former Scottish Labour leader pays for a full page ad in the Jewish Telegraph and accuses Mr Corbyn and his top team of being "intellectually arrogant, emotionally inept and politically maladroit".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45147656

    Death by a thousand cuts.

    A salutary reminder that we all get it wrong sometimes.
    Speak for yourself - I get it wrong all the time, thank you.
    But if that's correct, you've got it right on this occasion..

    https://youtu.be/QqCiw0wD44U
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    And some people are trying to pretend that the Conservative Party is not on the point of breaking up.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Former Scottish Labour leader pays for a full page ad in the Jewish Telegraph and accuses Mr Corbyn and his top team of being "intellectually arrogant, emotionally inept and politically maladroit".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45147656

    Death by a thousand cuts.

    As has been pointed out on twitter (& not just by Nats), Jim 'presided over a reduction in SLab MPs of 97.5%' Murphy should probably wind his neck in when it comes to "intellectually arrogant, emotionally inept and politically maladroit".

    A salutary reminder that we all get it wrong sometimes.

    'What makes Jim Murphy so dangerous to the SNP is that for the first time in years LAB has a credible alternative First Minister'

    https://tinyurl.com/q24mmhc
    Some of the posts in that thread have aged well.
    Aye, the horror being expressed at the prospect of government by Eds M & B is particularly poignant.

    It'd be very bad form to reproduce the best (worst) of them, particularly those of extant PBers, but I couldn't resist this. A world view in one post.

    Plato Posts: 15,724
    December 2014
    Dear me

    RT @Telegraph: Don't say 'Merry Christmas', it might offend someone, says Whitehall guidance ln.is/www.telegraph.…
    It is best to pick on posts by serious posters who have a superb betting track record who can clearly afford a little ribbing. Like AndyJS's first post in the thread ;)
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Another day, another corbyn story. Why so many of them in silly season? I guess political wonks need something to keep us occupied in the summer, so it's like throwing on an old sitcom while hoping the new stuff come September will be decent.

    Sky all over this story this morning.

    I think the MSM are like a dog with a bone when they see a story that makes waves and they are not going to let this go anytime soon. Boris ill judged remarks must have the conservative leadership pulling their hair out by interrupting the implosion of Corbyn and his cabal this summer
    Sure, but they've been dogs with bones before. Until his core are shaken it's just a meaningless repeat. The prediction someone made that he might row back on the definition business because of this seems reasonable, and that will mean his less bold critics will dial it back again
    Nothing will change his core's loyalty. But the core will not see him elected.

    I do believe we are past peak Corbyn and he is really damaging the labour brand now
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    NASA sun probe launch aborted. Try again in 24 hours.

    Was it cloudy?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,770
    Good video. And surely the real value in the iphone is in the intellectual property and marketing which belongs to Apple, a US company that occasionally pays tax there, if not anywhere else.

    My guess is that a very significant part of the US trade deficit doesn’t really exist. It’s just that the money earned by the likes of Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook and the like is not showing up in the books the way it would if they were minded to pay taxes like other businesses. In real terms I suspect the US is doing much better than the official figures show.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    IanB2 said:

    Mr. Jessop, indeed, politically it's idiotic to give Labour/Corbyn cover like that.

    However, that still means the media has to either be inept or openly partisan if they don't give the Corbyn story (the most recent one about the graves) substantial prominence.

    As an aside, it's disturbing Cressida Dick decided her officers should look into whether Boris committed a criminal offence. As Elizabeth I said to Lord Melchitt, we can't lock people up for being stupid. If we imprisoned people for being stupid Nursie would've been in prison all her life.

    I believe there was a complaint. This allows the media to say that the "police looked into it", because they have to, this being their job.
    Nope - they frequently fail to investigate shoplifting, robbery, etc. Common sense means they should have left the Bojo story alone - their action glorifies it and gives it fuel which it simply does not deserve.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Divvie, unfair to have a go at a post from years ago, by someone who isn't here any more.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748

    Mr. Divvie, unfair to have a go at a post from years ago, by someone who isn't here any more.

    If you think reproducing a post and describing it as a world view is having a go, well, I'm almost tempted to indulge in some hexagonal ice crystal based terminology.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited August 2018
    PClipp said:

    And some people are trying to pretend that the Conservative Party is not on the point of breaking up.
    It is not, certainly no more than the Labour Party is. Indeed only Labour has so far had one MP break away and refuse to stay in Corbyn Labour, John Woodcock, who now sits as an independent. No Tory MP has yet left the Party this Parliament
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Another day, another corbyn story. Why so many of them in silly season? I guess political wonks need something to keep us occupied in the summer, so it's like throwing on an old sitcom while hoping the new stuff come September will be decent.

    Sky all over this story this morning.

    I think the MSM are like a dog with a bone when they see a story that makes waves and they are not going to let this go anytime soon. Boris ill judged remarks must have the conservative leadership pulling their hair out by interrupting the implosion of Corbyn and his cabal this summer
    Sure, but they've been dogs with bones before. Until his core are shaken it's just a meaningless repeat. The prediction someone made that he might row back on the definition business because of this seems reasonable, and that will mean his less bold critics will dial it back again
    Nothing will change his core's loyalty. But the core will not see him elected.

    I do believe we are past peak Corbyn and he is really damaging the labour brand now
    The number of people who remember Munich, grasp the details and will be sufficiently butthurt over JC's veneration of the perpetrators to not vote Labour over it is zero.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    DavidL said:

    Good video. And surely the real value in the iphone is in the intellectual property and marketing which belongs to Apple, a US company that occasionally pays tax there, if not anywhere else.

    My guess is that a very significant part of the US trade deficit doesn’t really exist. It’s just that the money earned by the likes of Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook and the like is not showing up in the books the way it would if they were minded to pay taxes like other businesses. In real terms I suspect the US is doing much better than the official figures show.

    Hence Hammond is reported to be planning a new 'Amazon tax' and Trump lambasted Amazon on social media while Facebook is also under attack from Brussels and Westminster and Congress
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Another day, another corbyn story. Why so many of them in silly season? I guess political wonks need something to keep us occupied in the summer, so it's like throwing on an old sitcom while hoping the new stuff come September will be decent.

    Sky all over this story this morning.

    I think the MSM are like a dog with a bone when they see a story that makes waves and they are not going to let this go anytime soon. Boris ill judged remarks must have the conservative leadership pulling their hair out by interrupting the implosion of Corbyn and his cabal this summer
    Sure, but they've been dogs with bones before. Until his core are shaken it's just a meaningless repeat. The prediction someone made that he might row back on the definition business because of this seems reasonable, and that will mean his less bold critics will dial it back again
    Nothing will change his core's loyalty. But the core will not see him elected.

    I do believe we are past peak Corbyn and he is really damaging the labour brand now
    The number of people who remember Munich, grasp the details and will be sufficiently butthurt over JC's veneration of the perpetrators to not vote Labour over it is zero.
    Labour down to 35% in the latest Yougov. LDs up to 10%
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    So here we are, with the Tories and Labour still pretty much neck-and-neck in the polls, just as they were a year ago – each unable to pull ahead against what they’ve decided are the worst bunch in modern history. It is easy, in the cliched Punch-and-Judy world of Westminster, to sigh knowingly at the pendulum swing. Last week we were on Labour’s latest grim paroxysm of antisemitism; this week it’s the Tories and Islamophobia.

    And yet, if we take a step back, doesn’t the picture resolve into something that should be much more worrying? It turns out we are now a country where both major parties are locked in sustained, self-started fights with minority communities. That feels ominous. We are still only in the phoney war of Brexit, after all – the period where the questions are all about who benefits. Who benefited from what even some Brexit voters such as Danny Dyer have decided is turning pear-shaped? Was it Arron Banks? Is it Johnson? Will it be Gove?

    If much of history is any guide, we might reasonably fear that once the realities kick in, another phase will follow the period of asking who benefits. And that will be the period where people decide who gets blamed. Who is at the sharp end when things don’t turn out how they were promised? Who is turned against? Who gets it in the neck? It certainly isn’t well-off and socially insulated politicians, however much of a metaphorical pasting they might imagine they take for things that are, after all, their own fault. The weak will suffer. In this context, it is more than a grim symmetry to find significant factions in both major political parties pitting themselves against minority communities. It is an alarm bell.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/10/antisemitism-islamophobia-brexit-boris-johnson-muslim-women-ominous
  • HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    And some people are trying to pretend that the Conservative Party is not on the point of breaking up.
    It is not, certainly no more than the Labour Party is. Indeed only Labour has so far had one MP break away and refuse to stay in Corbyn Labour, John Woodcock, who now sits as an independent. No Tory MP has yet left the Party this Parliament
    It has its strains at present but it always seeks power above all else
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Another day, another corbyn story. Why so many of them in silly season? I guess political wonks need something to keep us occupied in the summer, so it's like throwing on an old sitcom while hoping the new stuff come September will be decent.

    Sky all over this story this morning.

    I think the MSM are like a dog with a bone when they see a story that makes waves and they are not going to let this go anytime soon. Boris ill judged remarks must have the conservative leadership pulling their hair out by interrupting the implosion of Corbyn and his cabal this summer
    Sure, but they've been dogs with bones before. Until his core are shaken it's just a meaningless repeat. The prediction someone made that he might row back on the definition business because of this seems reasonable, and that will mean his less bold critics will dial it back again
    Nothing will change his core's loyalty. But the core will not see him elected.

    I do believe we are past peak Corbyn and he is really damaging the labour brand now
    The number of people who remember Munich, grasp the details and will be sufficiently butthurt over JC's veneration of the perpetrators to not vote Labour over it is zero.
    Labour down to 35% in the latest Yougov. LDs up to 10%
    And will that be sustained come election time in (possibly) 4 years? I wouldn't count on it.

    Obviously don't rule anything out, but come on, push comes to shove stopping the Tories from being the top party 4 elections in a row will be a priority.

    (This does presume Corbyn is still there in 4 years, which I don't think is certain even if he is currently safe as houses).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    And some people are trying to pretend that the Conservative Party is not on the point of breaking up.
    It is not, certainly no more than the Labour Party is. Indeed only Labour has so far had one MP break away and refuse to stay in Corbyn Labour, John Woodcock, who now sits as an independent. No Tory MP has yet left the Party this Parliament
    It has its strains at present but it always seeks power above all else
    FPTP also makes splits more difficult
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Another day, another corbyn story. Why so many of them in silly season? I guess political wonks need something to keep us occupied in the summer, so it's like throwing on an old sitcom while hoping the new stuff come September will be decent.

    Sky all over this story this morning.

    I think the MSM are like a dog with a bone when they see a story that makes waves and they are not going to let this go anytime soon. Boris ill judged remarks must have the conservative leadership pulling their hair out by interrupting the implosion of Corbyn and his cabal this summer
    Sure, but they've been dogs with bones before. Until his core are shaken it's just a meaningless repeat. The prediction someone made that he might row back on the definition business because of this seems reasonable, and that will mean his less bold critics will dial it back again
    Nothing will change his core's loyalty. But the core will not see him elected.

    I do believe we are past peak Corbyn and he is really damaging the labour brand now
    The number of people who remember Munich, grasp the details and will be sufficiently butthurt over JC's veneration of the perpetrators to not vote Labour over it is zero.
    Labour down to 35% in the latest Yougov. LDs up to 10%
    Ah, so YouGov is accurate for Westminster polling but not Second Referendum vote?
  • Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Another day, another corbyn story. Why so many of them in silly season? I guess political wonks need something to keep us occupied in the summer, so it's like throwing on an old sitcom while hoping the new stuff come September will be decent.

    Sky all over this story this morning.

    I think the MSM are like a dog with a bone when they see a story that makes waves and they are not going to let this go anytime soon. Boris ill judged remarks must have the conservative leadership pulling their hair out by interrupting the implosion of Corbyn and his cabal this summer
    Sure, but they've been dogs with bones before. Until his core are shaken it's just a meaningless repeat. The prediction someone made that he might row back on the definition business because of this seems reasonable, and that will mean his less bold critics will dial it back again
    Nothing will change his core's loyalty. But the core will not see him elected.

    I do believe we are past peak Corbyn and he is really damaging the labour brand now
    The number of people who remember Munich, grasp the details and will be sufficiently butthurt over JC's veneration of the perpetrators to not vote Labour over it is zero.
    You are missing the point. It is the accumulation of all the anti semetic stories that has created the narrative and it is not going away. Corbyn will not be PM
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Is there a coherent Corbynite rebuttal of the Mail’s story? I’ve seen some vehement assertion but no explanation of the apparent photographic evidence.

    Even from the Mail's story, or the online version, this is based on an old Sunday Times report, and Corbyn's own contemporary account in the Morning Star when he claimed to be honouring a different set of graves.
    The photos are from October 1st 2014, which was the anniversary of the event Corbyn is claiming to have been commemorating: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Wooden_Leg

    To me, that's relatively strong evidence that he's telling the truth. The idea that they'd hold a commemorative event on the anniversary of one event, and write a press report about it, so that they could cover up secretly commemorating something different, seems a bit farfetched. As far as I can tell, the only evidence to the contrary is that at some point Corbyn was photographed standing near a different grave.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    I think this, from the BBC story on Rees-Mogg defending Boris, may have unintended consequences:

    "The Downing Street source said the party is compelled to investigate any complaint."

    Even if thousands of letters of complaint come in from members demanding that Theresa May be investigated for bringing the role of Prime Minister into disrepute? But you are "compelled to investigate", Downing Street.....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45153483
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Another day, another corbyn story. Why so many of them in silly season? I guess political wonks need something to keep us occupied in the summer, so it's like throwing on an old sitcom while hoping the new stuff come September will be decent.

    Sky all over this story this morning.

    I think the MSM are like a dog with a bone when they see a story that makes waves and they are not going to let this go anytime soon. Boris ill judged remarks must have the conservative leadership pulling their hair out by interrupting the implosion of Corbyn and his cabal this summer
    Sure, but they've been dogs with bones before. Until his core are shaken it's just a meaningless repeat. The prediction someone made that he might row back on the definition business because of this seems reasonable, and that will mean his less bold critics will dial it back again
    Nothing will change his core's loyalty. But the core will not see him elected.

    I do believe we are past peak Corbyn and he is really damaging the labour brand now
    The number of people who remember Munich, grasp the details and will be sufficiently butthurt over JC's veneration of the perpetrators to not vote Labour over it is zero.
    Labour down to 35% in the latest Yougov. LDs up to 10%
    And will that be sustained come election time in (possibly) 4 years? I wouldn't count on it.

    Obviously don't rule anything out, but come on, push comes to shove stopping the Tories from being the top party 4 elections in a row will be a priority.

    (This does presume Corbyn is still there in 4 years, which I don't think is certain even if he is currently safe as houses).
    Even if the Labour to LDs voters went back to Labour the Tories would still be ahead 39% to 38% with Yougov with the LDs and UKIP both on 7%.

    That is because May has also won some 2017 Labour voters over to the Tories post Chequers Deal with Yougov to somewhat make up for 2017 Tory voters who have moved to UKIP
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Another day, another corbyn story. Why so many of them in silly season? I guess political wonks need something to keep us occupied in the summer, so it's like throwing on an old sitcom while hoping the new stuff come September will be decent.

    Sky all over this story this morning.

    I think the MSM are like a dog with a bone when they see a story that makes waves and they are not going to let this go anytime soon. Boris ill judged remarks must have the conservative leadership pulling their hair out by interrupting the implosion of Corbyn and his cabal this summer
    Sure, but they've been dogs with bones before. Until his core are shaken it's just a meaningless repeat. The prediction someone made that he might row back on the definition business because of this seems reasonable, and that will mean his less bold critics will dial it back again
    Nothing will change his core's loyalty. But the core will not see him elected.

    I do believe we are past peak Corbyn and he is really damaging the labour brand now
    The number of people who remember Munich, grasp the details and will be sufficiently butthurt over JC's veneration of the perpetrators to not vote Labour over it is zero.
    Labour down to 35% in the latest Yougov. LDs up to 10%
    Ah, so YouGov is accurate for Westminster polling but not Second Referendum vote?
    Even on Second Referendum vote Yougov has support for it under 50%, hardly mass demand
This discussion has been closed.