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MonikerDiCanio

Looking at those trends , it seems we're heading towards a 1992 result in 2015.

AveryLP

First?

Or last?

Alanbrooke

tim said:

Good job there's no viable party to the right of the Tories

UKIP say they are centrist, they take votes from left and right.

Alanbrooke

AveryLP said:

First?

Or last?

It appears you've come second Avery. Maybe one to tell and impress Mrs Pole.

Theuniondivvie

MonikerDiCanio said:

Looking at those trends , it seems we're heading towards a 1992 result in 2015.

As long as the Cons can take 6 points back from 'others'.

Alanbrooke

Theuniondivvie said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Looking at those trends , it seems we're heading towards a 1992 result in 2015.

As long as the Cons can take 6 points back from 'others'.

Is Eck offering ? ;-)

AveryLP

tim said:

Good job there's no viable party to the right of the Tories

Funny you saying that, tim, as I have just been thinking the same when contemplating a reply to Alanbrooke's last post.

The Tories are only exposed on the economy to attacks from the right. Labour try this line occasionally (your own claims that Osborne is borrowing more than Brown are an example) but it doesn't work because no one believes that Labour would implement let alone want more austerity than George is already inflicting.

The Alanbrooke/another richard pincer movement on London from Warwickshire and the East Midlands is always more promising.

The trouble is that the kippers, being "a bunch of fruitcakes, loons and closet racists" are not credible on the economy. Populism and austerity don't mix and the kippers will always give precedent to Brexit over competent economic management.

Labour had a chance to get in on the economy by painting Osborne as incompetent but this target is receding as fast as the economy is recovering. The hard facts speak for themselves.

Still there is an achilles heel. It is just located on the wrong side of your enemy.

Mick_Pork

tim said:

Good job there's no viable party to the right of the Tories

Good job it's nobody Cameron and Heseltine called racists, loonies or fruitcakes.

Theuniondivvie

Alanbrooke said:

Theuniondivvie said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Looking at those trends , it seems we're heading towards a 1992 result in 2015.

As long as the Cons can take 6 points back from 'others'.

Is Eck offering ? ;-)

I doubt there's many SNP or Yes supporters in the Mail readership. In any case I think we'll hang onto our Tartan Tories - once ye've gone Nat ye niver gang back, as we say.

anotherDave

AveryLP said:

tim said:

Good job there's no viable party to the right of the Tories

Populism and austerity don't mix

Yes they do.

Closing the Department of International development.
Ending all green energy subsidies.
Making not having TV license a civil law, rather than criminal law, offence.
Brexit!

Grandiose

For me, this basically exemplifies at the moment I see Miliband falling into Number 10. Blair went out a won Conservative votes and there is precious little indication that Ed has or will. More's the pity it may well be enough. I cannot imagine Bury St Edmunds becoming a marginal seat any time soon.

dr_spyn

All Ed has to do is stop them voting Green or LD. If he can get c. 1 in 4 Mail readers to back him he might get Labour in. Blair did it 3 times, Brown didn't, so is he the heir to Brown or Blair?

stodge

AveryLP said:

tim said:

Good job there's no viable party to the right of the Tories

Funny you saying that, tim, as I have just been thinking the same when contemplating a reply to Alanbrooke's last post.

The Tories are only exposed on the economy to attacks from the right. Labour try this line occasionally (your own claims that Osborne is borrowing more than Brown are an example) but it doesn't work because no one believes that Labour would implement let alone want more austerity than George is already inflicting.

The Alanbrooke/another richard pincer movement on London from Warwickshire and the East Midlands is always more promising.

Still there is an achilles heel. It is just located on the wrong side of your enemy.

I must confess I always find Allister Heath's economic arguments compelling though I'm a long way from him politically and don't find his political arguments anywhere as strong.

I must confess he has convinced me that huge mistakes have been made and opportunities missed by both the current and preceding Governments. In particular, the folly of QE and bank bailouts has been laid bare as well as the truth that the real disaster of the public finances was as much the collapse in revenue as much as the excess of expenditure.

Alanbrooke

AveryLP said:

tim said:

Good job there's no viable party to the right of the Tories

The Alanbrooke/another richard pincer movement on London from Warwickshire and the East Midlands is always more promising.

The trouble is that the kippers, being "a bunch of fruitcakes, loons and closet racists" are not credible on the economy. Populism and austerity don't mix and the kippers will always give precedent to Brexit over competent economic management.

Labour had a chance to get in on the economy by painting Osborne as incompetent but this target is receding as fast as the economy is recovering. The hard facts speak for themselves.

Still there is an achilles heel. It is just located on the wrong side of your enemy.

Nonetheless Mr Pole your analysis falls down on the concept of the economy. The problem for chappies like you, Richard and Charles ie the SE Tories, is your definition of what the economy is, is centred on London and on finance. Up here in the places where people work for a living the economy means making things, distributing and low tech financial services which actually serve the communities they are based in.

To date Cameron and Osborne have been singularly unimpressive in putting any oomph or credibility in the numerous voters outside the South. And yet to even have a chance of largest party in a HP he needs to convince all us Midland marginals he's got something worth saying. Cameron had a prime chance to do this at the beginning of this Parlt when putting something heavyweight in to the Midlands and North would have paid dividends now. Instead he fluffed it spending his political capital instead on press battles, fighting his own party and other non bread and butter stuff.

So while the economy is the Tories big hope, when you break it down into the regions ( where ultimately the election will be won or lost ) Cameron and Osborne are still only promising jam tomorrow to a surly and sceptical audience. Not a slam dunk.

AveryLP

anotherDave said:

AveryLP said:

tim said:

Good job there's no viable party to the right of the Tories

Populism and austerity don't mix

Yes they do.

Closing the Department of International development.
Ending all green energy subsidies.
Making not having TV license a civil law, rather than criminal law, offence.
Brexit!

The art of managing an economy successfully is balancing all interests while moving gradually in a clear direction towards defined goals.

So of course some austerity measures can be populist (as you point out) but it is the overall picture which counts.

If the needs of economic recovery argued for delaying action on Brexit by a decade would you support a revision to UKIP policy?

anotherDave

AveryLP said:

anotherDave said:

AveryLP said:

tim said:

Good job there's no viable party to the right of the Tories

Populism and austerity don't mix

Yes they do.

Closing the Department of International development.
Ending all green energy subsidies.
Making not having TV license a civil law, rather than criminal law, offence.
Brexit!

If the needs of economic recovery argued for delaying action on Brexit by a decade would you support a revision to UKIP policy?

1. I don't think there is such a need.
2. No.

Grandiose

AveryLP said:

anotherDave said:

AveryLP said:

tim said:

Good job there's no viable party to the right of the Tories

Populism and austerity don't mix

Yes they do.

Closing the Department of International development.
Ending all green energy subsidies.
Making not having TV license a civil law, rather than criminal law, offence.
Brexit!

The art of managing an economy successfully is balancing all interests while moving gradually in a clear direction towards defined goals.

So of course some austerity measures can be populist (as you point out) but it is the overall picture which counts.

If the needs of economic recovery argued for delaying action on Brexit by a decade would you support a revision to UKIP policy?

Considerable cuts in foreign aid is not a debate we've had as a country. As ipsos-MORI's polls showed, people believe it to be much higher than it is.

Alanbrooke

Theuniondivvie said:

Alanbrooke said:

Theuniondivvie said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Looking at those trends , it seems we're heading towards a 1992 result in 2015.

As long as the Cons can take 6 points back from 'others'.

Is Eck offering ? ;-)

I doubt there's many SNP or Yes supporters in the Mail readership. In any case I think we'll hang onto our Tartan Tories - once ye've gone Nat ye niver gang back, as we say.

Oldnats never die, they merely blog away.

dr_spyn

yet another update on Mail v Miliband on BBC.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24395790

Mail's position unravelling. Makes a change the anti Semitic story line this morning and Mail wanting an apology.

AveryLP

Alanbrooke said:

AveryLP said:

tim said:

Good job there's no viable party to the right of the Tories

...

Nonetheless Mr Pole your analysis falls down on the concept of the economy. The problem for chappies like you, Richard and Charles ie the SE Tories, is your definition of what the economy is, is centred on London and on finance. Up here in the places where people work for a living the economy means making things, distributing and low tech financial services which actually serve the communities they are based in.

To date Cameron and Osborne have been singularly unimpressive in putting any oomph or credibility in the numerous voters outside the South. And yet to even have a chance of largest party in a HP he needs to convince all us Midland marginals he's got something worth saying. Cameron had a prime chance to do this at the beginning of this Parlt when putting something heavyweight in to the Midlands and North would have paid dividends now. Instead he fluffed it spending his political capital instead on press battles, fighting his own party and other non bread and butter stuff.

So while the economy is the Tories big hope, when you break it down into the regions ( where ultimately the election will be won or lost ) Cameron and Osborne are still only promising jam tomorrow to a surly and sceptical audience. Not a slam dunk.

It is really a question of priorities.

Osborne had to get the macro-economic fundamentals right first (interest rates, monetary policy (QE), tax increases, expenditure cuts) and achieve the right balance between growth and fiscal consolidation. It looks, three years into the parliament, that, either by design or good fortune, he has achieved that.

The secondary goals of rebalancing the economy (from public to private sector, from services dependence to a greater role for manufacturing, from North Sea to Balcombe, from consumption to exports, from the SE to the regions) had to wait their turn in the queue.

But you should take notice and heart from Mark Carney's statements this week about the importance of reviving the economy in the regions. It won't be long before you are top of the queue.

Just sit quietly and hold on to that ticket, Mr. Brooke.

Alanbrooke

tim said:

@Avery

Well I agree with you on one thing, Labours attack on Osborne should always have been focused on his incompetence rather than cuts, he was always going to be too incompetent to cut, a basic knowledge of his career could've told you that.

And the key to cutting is housing and low pay, the Tories are addicted to subsidising landlords and low wages, thats why they always end up spending more in benefits.

Labour should go into the next election promising to spend less on current spending by the end of the parliament than Osborne, and tell the British people that they have to wean themselves off low wages and house price inflation.

Growth will come from a huge housing programme rather than Osbornes bubble which is due to pop in 2016-7 when interest rates rise anyway.

Jeez tim, hasn't it yet struck you that Labour can't actually come up with anyone who can out think Osborne ? That's just how bad Labour's economic approach is. The economic swing as the SE Tories are praying will be based not on how good GO's record is ( it's mediocre ) but on the realisation that the alternative is just so many times worse.

dr_spyn

So far the Mail Miliband spat has not yet had a Downfall video posted on Youtube.

felix

tim said:

Some good writing here.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/oct/04/antisemitism-does-not-always-come-hitler-salute?CMP=twt_fd

The Mails history, and Dacres "Deuteronomy" editorialising go hand in glove

The Guardian is right - I recall an election poster featuring Michael Howard - only I don't think from my rather hazy recollection that it was produced by the Daily Mail. I think that last thread ended rather badly and maybe it's best to try and stay on topic for this one.

AveryLP

stodge said:

AveryLP said:

tim said:

Good job there's no viable party to the right of the Tories

Funny you saying that, tim, as I have just been thinking the same when contemplating a reply to Alanbrooke's last post.

The Tories are only exposed on the economy to attacks from the right. Labour try this line occasionally (your own claims that Osborne is borrowing more than Brown are an example) but it doesn't work because no one believes that Labour would implement let alone want more austerity than George is already inflicting.

The Alanbrooke/another richard pincer movement on London from Warwickshire and the East Midlands is always more promising.

Still there is an achilles heel. It is just located on the wrong side of your enemy.

I must confess I always find Allister Heath's economic arguments compelling though I'm a long way from him politically and don't find his political arguments anywhere as strong.

I must confess he has convinced me that huge mistakes have been made and opportunities missed by both the current and preceding Governments. In particular, the folly of QE and bank bailouts has been laid bare as well as the truth that the real disaster of the public finances was as much the collapse in revenue as much as the excess of expenditure.

Stodgius

I would be wary of putting too much reliance on Allister Heath. He can be lazy in his research (French housebuilding stats are a recent example) and be too absolutist in identifying problems and promoting his preferred solutions. One always feels he is and always will be a polemicist and critic by choice. I can't see him ever wanting to be given the tiller.

Scott_P

Oh no. HIGNFY just did a joke about Ed's wife. Cue a week of outrage and letters to the editor. Or not

GeoffM

dr_spyn said:

So far the Mail Miliband spat has not yet had a Downfall video posted on Youtube.

That's usually good circumstantial confirmation of story/non-story status, so an unexpected factoid from Dr Spyn there.

Sunil_Prasannan

With apologies to Tom Clancy, RIP.:

The Hunt for Ed October

"Comrades! This is your captain! It is an honour to speak to you today! And I'm honoured to be sailing with you on the maiden voyage of our Motherland's most recent achievement. And once more, we play our dangerous game. A game of chess... against our old adversary... the Conservative Party! For a hundred years, your fathers before you and your older brothers played this game... and played it well. But today, the game is different. WE have the advantage! It reminds me of the heady days of 1945 and Clement Atlee, when the world trembled at the sound of our nationalisations. Now they will tremble again - at the sound of our populism. The order is: engage the Energy Price Freeze!

"Comrades! Our own activists don't know our full potential! They will do everything possible to test us, but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our activists behind! We will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest parliamentary constituency, and listen to their braying and tittering... while we conduct anti-Austerity debates! And when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Brighton, where the sun is warm, and so is the... comradeship.

"A great day, comrades! We sail into history!"

Scott_P

tim said:

opens with another mindless contribution.

Seek help.

Your creepy obsession with every post is not healthy

AveryLP

tim said:

@Avery

Well I agree with you on one thing, Labours attack on Osborne should always have been focused on his incompetence rather than cuts, he was always going to be too incompetent to cut, a basic knowledge of his career could've told you that.

And the key to cutting is housing and low pay, the Tories are addicted to subsidising landlords and low wages, thats why they always end up spending more in benefits.

Labour should go into the next election promising to spend less on current spending by the end of the parliament than Osborne, and tell the British people that they have to wean themselves off low wages and house price inflation.

Growth will come from a huge housing programme rather than Osbornes bubble which is due to pop in 2016-7 when interest rates rise anyway.

The social housing problem needs to be solved. tim. But the route to solution is not waving a magic wand or making empty promises about (private sector) build rates.

The solution is to move the whole sector into a position where it can operate viably as a free market. And that will require a hard and dispassionate analysis of its current real costs.

And the solution is one for times of public sector surpluses and reduced concerns about government borrowing. It will cost in both investment and current expense. A lot.

But properly worked it is probably doing: or even more, it needs doing if the UK is to realise its potential for above average long term growth.

Alanbrooke

AveryLP said:

Alanbrooke said:

AveryLP said:

tim said:

Good job there's no viable party to the right of the Tories

...

Nonetheless . Not a slam dunk.

It is really a question of priorities.

Osborne had to get the macro-economic fundamentals right first (interest rates, monetary policy (QE), tax increases, expenditure cuts) and achieve the right balance between growth and fiscal consolidation. It looks, three years into the parliament, that, either by design or good fortune, he has achieved that.

The secondary goals of rebalancing the economy (from public to private sector, from services dependence to a greater role for manufacturing, from North Sea to Balcombe, from consumption to exports, from the SE to the regions) had to wait their turn in the queue.

But you should take notice and heart from Mark Carney's statements this week about the importance of reviving the economy in the regions. It won't be long before you are top of the queue.

Just sit quietly and hold on to that ticket, Mr. Brooke.

Tosh Mr Pole. The stabilisation of public finances was more or less complete after Y1 ( remember George told us so ).

I lost any interest in Y2 when instead of tackling reform Osborne dicked about and Cameron spent his politicsal capital on gay marriage, pasties, fruitcakes in fact just about everything the rest of the country had not very much interest in. The masses up here wanted bread and butter instead we got the offer of tickets to a Gilbert and George exhibition.

Osborne has flunked a Parliament's worth of reform. As I argued back a few years ago he took the easy way out by not tackling hard to do things and instead crossed his fingers that the economy would get him out of trouble. The all too predictable Euro crisis stopped that and ever since he has been on catch up.

But out here in the sticks the things that matter still haven't been addressed and instead of goodwill there's simply an ungrateful indifference. Midland marginals had manufacturing, economic rebalancing , banking reform as our primary goals. We swing the parliament so why should we wait ?

Tykejohnno

FPT - Mike Smithson posted - What an inadequate comment. Frankly when I see such ill-thought out parisan rubbish like that I start to ask what is the point in me running this site.

My patience is coming to an end.

Bloody hell mike,you nearly gave tim a heart attack,giving hints that you might give the site up ;-) what would the lad do.

HYUFD

Interesting that Daily Mail voters voted equally for Labour and the LDs in 2010, but more for the LDs than Labour in 1992, despite the fact Labour got a higher vote share in 1992 and the LDs a lower vote share. Brown ran a relatively socially conservative campaign in 2010, certainly compared to Kinnock in 1992, which may suggest Mail readers are more socially conservative than the nation as a whole, and also makes them fertile territory for UKIP, indeed if the Telegraph is the Tory house journal (although increasingly the Cameroons may prefer the Times or the Sun), the Mirror is the Labour house journal and the Independent that of the LDs, the Mail can be said to be the UKIP house journal of today

Freggles

Hunt calling for planned NHS 1% pay rise to be scrapped. Sure to be a vote winner if he's successful......?

surbiton

Well Ed had the Muslim vote. Now some of the "lost" Jewish vote is also coming back.
Well done, Daily Mail !

Charles

Alanbrooke said:

Nonetheless Mr Pole your analysis falls down on the concept of the economy. The problem for chappies like you, Richard and Charles ie the SE Tories, is your definition of what the economy is, is centred on London and on finance. Up here in the places where people work for a living the economy means making things, distributing and low tech financial services which actually serve the communities they are based in.

Oi! I grew up with a Dad who runs a small business. It may be in a different sector to your experience, but ultimately it comes down to absolute focus on customer service, attention to detail/quality and the correct pricing of our product offering.

I don't see how that's much different to what you do at the end of the day.

RobD

surbiton said:

Well Ed had the Muslim vote. Now some of the "lost" Jewish vote is also coming back.
Well done, Daily Mail !

Has there been a poll on that?

Alanbrooke

tim said:

Alanbrooke said:

tim said:

@Avery

Well I agree with you on one thing, Labours attack on Osborne should always have been focused on his incompetence rather than cuts, he was always going to be too incompetent to cut, a basic knowledge of his career could've told you that.

And the key to cutting is housing and low pay, the Tories are addicted to subsidising landlords and low wages, thats why they always end up spending more in benefits.

Labour should go into the next election promising to spend less on current spending by the end of the parliament than Osborne, and tell the British people that they have to wean themselves off low wages and house price inflation.

Growth will come from a huge housing programme rather than Osbornes bubble which is due to pop in 2016-7 when interest rates rise anyway.

Jeez tim, hasn't it yet struck you that Labour can't actually come up with anyone who can out think Osborne ? That's just how bad Labour's economic approach is. The economic swing as the SE Tories are praying will be based not on how good GO's record is ( it's mediocre ) but on the realisation that the alternative is just so many times worse.

Osborne outhinks himself, that much we know.He's far more of a danger to his own party than the opposition as the last election and the omnishambles budget showed.
Labours problem is that it has to starkly challenge the addiction to low pay and landlord subsidies which have prevented the govt from managing any cuts.

Labour's problem is the Viv Richardson model has been tested to destruction and nobody on it's front bench has a single idea what to do about it.

Ed's latest gambit is to spend other people's money by getting them to pick up the tab for his latest bribe - living wage, energy freeze - it's just economic pick pocketing .

As I pointed out before the Coalition will bribe the electorate with their own money and Labour will seek to bribe them with someone else's money while still keeping the voters cash.

Labour to date remain clueless and Osborne looks better by comparison..

felix

surbiton said:

Well Ed had the Muslim vote. Now some of the "lost" Jewish vote is also coming back.
Well done, Daily Mail !

surbiton said:

Well Ed had the Muslim vote. Now some of the "lost" Jewish vote is also coming back.
Well done, Daily Mail !

Evidence?? Or just wishful thinking.

Freggles

The quality of the site might improve if a rule was established that, other than Nighthawks, posters shouldn't debate the merits of policies or people, except in the context of electoral success.

The success of this site has been the in-depth nonpartisan analysis, emphasis on odds and predictive modelling, and trying to understand the composition of the electorate. Qualities that are more apparent above the line than below

GeoffM

Freggles said:

Hunt calling for planned NHS 1% pay rise to be scrapped. Sure to be a vote winner if he's successful......?

Their pay increase could be funded from the unclaimed pensions of those who die prematurely from neglect and shoddy care.

MonikerDiCanio

surbiton said:

Well Ed had the Muslim vote. Now some of the "lost" Jewish vote is also coming back.
Well done, Daily Mail !

Are you sure ?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-17549388

Alanbrooke

Charles said:

Alanbrooke said:

Nonetheless Mr Pole your analysis falls down on the concept of the economy. The problem for chappies like you, Richard and Charles ie the SE Tories, is your definition of what the economy is, is centred on London and on finance. Up here in the places where people work for a living the economy means making things, distributing and low tech financial services which actually serve the communities they are based in.

Oi! I grew up with a Dad who runs a small business. It may be in a different sector to your experience, but ultimately it comes down to absolute focus on customer service, attention to detail/quality and the correct pricing of our product offering.

I don't see how that's much different to what you do at the end of the day.

I don't doubt for one moment that you did Charles, your posts always show someone who has worked to get on. My statement is based on the regional economies being different and what is important in the London centric economy isn't up here. People I know who work in or around London talk of a buoyant economy, and business as usual they find it hard to imagine that everyone else isn't finding it the same.

And so I come back to the long running argument between the PB righties which roughly splits South v the rest. It's pointless Cameron piling up loads of votes in safe southern seats, he needs Midland and Northern seats and Scotish ones too. And he isn't going to get back in to government with policies which do very little for the regions.

AveryLP

tim said:

@Avery

...the key is change the private sector building model which is based on short term turnover and incentivise long term rental for both the supplier and the consumer rather than spending on housing benefit annually and the costs of a housing crash every decade and a half.

Not sure I follow this argument but no matter: we will have plenty of time between now and the GE to work through the real figures.

JohnO

Freggles said:

The quality of the site might improve if a rule was established that, other than Nighthawks, posters shouldn't debate the merits of policies or people, except in the context of electoral success.

The success of this site has been the in-depth nonpartisan analysis, emphasis on odds and predictive modelling, and trying to understand the composition of the electorate. Qualities that are more apparent above the line than below

Funny enough that was Mike's strict injunction when he founded the site (albeit the average number of posts on a thread was about 3)

Sunil_Prasannan

Freggles said:

Hunt calling for planned NHS 1% pay rise to be scrapped. Sure to be a vote winner if he's successful......?

Hunt 4 Ed October?

How about scrapping any pay rise whatsoever for our politicians? That would surely be a vote-winner!

Scott_P

tim said:

make a substantive contribution to a thread, any thread

Still bitter about completing missing the land confiscation story in Ed's speech.

If you had controlled your desire for another 30s you wouldn't have looked like a tit all day.

Seek help. Really.

GeoffM

SeanT said:

Or do you think the insights of Henry G - "Ed Miliband will be gone in 2012" - Manson, are so startling and remarkable people will come here just to read whatever bilge he had concocted today?

Indeed. Some of us come here *despite* the thread headers, not because of them.

john_zims

@Surbiton

'Well Ed had the Muslim vote. Now some of the "lost" Jewish vote is also coming back.
Well done, Daily Mail !'

I'm sure they have already forgotten & forgiven Ed for Labour's choice of London mayoral candidate last year.

JonnyJimmy

I think the BBC just had a "joke" about FGM on Citizen Khan..

Edit - just realised it was a joke about the dad having a vasectomy. Phew...

Mick_Pork

There's more behind Dacre's ridiculous tantrum than merely trying and failing to give little Ed a slap or even stirring up trouble ahead of the governments next response to Leveson.

The beancounters at DMGT will have been painting quite a stark picture of just how successful the celeb gossip heavy Mail online is in numerical terms. They will have been pointing at Mail online and asking Rothermere, 'why don't we go down this road for print?'
A question that Geordie Greig has asked himself too it would seem.

It's not quite that simple of course but after this week it's going to be very tempting for Rothermere to try to cut down on Dacre's notoriously unsubtle political posturing. This was Dacre very clearly trying to make certain the Mail remained in the forefront of politics despite ongoing pressure for a more celeb gossip style positioning. And he blew it in fine style.

I'd keep an eye out for the MoS getting some big celebrity scoops as I suspect that's going to be where this battle goes next.

Scott_P

tim said:

You were better off pasting tweets you don't understand.

LOL. One of us understood the tweet. Have you worked out which one it was yet? Here's a clue. It wasn't you.

tim Posts: 10,362
September 24
Scott_P said:
@iainmartin1: Build on land or have it stolen by the government????? Er...

No, have the planning permission transferred to a builder who will build

Please try to understand your tweet pasting Scott

felix

tim said:

JohnO said:

Freggles said:

The quality of the site might improve if a rule was established that, other than Nighthawks, posters shouldn't debate the merits of policies or people, except in the context of electoral success.

The success of this site has been the in-depth nonpartisan analysis, emphasis on odds and predictive modelling, and trying to understand the composition of the electorate. Qualities that are more apparent above the line than below

Funny enough that was Mike's strict injunction when he founded the site.

Hence the mutual respect between the punters on here.
But the current crop of PB Tory morons John, Jesus man would you want to be in a pub quiz team with Watcher,Zims, Floater and Surge?

Maybe the continued use of phrases like 'PB Tory morons' is not helping to engender serious discussion.

Scott_P

@cgi365: Okay, so what are the odds on #BBC #Newsnight featuring Labour's #NHS cover-up this evening?

AveryLP

Alanbrooke said:

AveryLP said:

Alanbrooke said:

AveryLP said:

tim said:

Good job there's no viable party to the right of the Tories

...

Nonetheless . Not a slam dunk.

...

... Midland marginals had manufacturing, economic rebalancing , banking reform as our primary goals. We swing the parliament so why should we wait ?

You can't have bank credit supply when there are no functioning banks. Recapitalisation, balance sheet cleanup, new regulation, restructuring and a return to the private sector has had to take precedence. All tasks which could not have been undertaken overnight, which have been addressed as a priority over the first three years and are beginning to complete as we speak.

Barclays has just recapitalised through a 96% take up of its 5.8 bn rights issue. Lloyds has just recreated TSB and the government has sold its first tranche of its shares with a plan of complete disposal by the GE. RBoS is negotiating for the sale of the 'Co-op' branches to a Church of England led syndicate and the report on the bank's restructuring needs is due this month. The Bank of England is beginning to report increases in bank lending to SMEs (if not large corporates) for the first time in years.

It is all happening, Mr. Brooke, maybe slower than you would like but real progress has been made.

Similarly the shift to manufacturing is taking place (car industry most notable example but other key industries have been targetted by the government). And there has been a gradualist rebalancing of the economy.

Would the prospects of the Midlands be better off under a Labour government?

Scott_P

SeanT said:

There is more humour (leftwing but clever) in 15 seconds of the Colbert Report, and I can watch that without having to pay a poll tax.

The Daily Show on the shutdown has been outstanding this week. Some truly exceptional insults coined.

surbiton

MonikerDiCanio said:

surbiton said:

Well Ed had the Muslim vote. Now some of the "lost" Jewish vote is also coming back.
Well done, Daily Mail !

Are you sure ?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-17549388

Do you think GG would vote with the Tories against Labour ?

Alanbrooke

SeanT said:

Scott_P said:

Oh no. HIGNFY just did a joke about Ed's wife. Cue a week of outrage and letters to the editor. Or not

]

Back from the pub, I happened across HIGNFY tonight, for the first time in years.

Ohmyword. Was it always this unfunny? I hope not, but jeez it's just desperate now. Bunch of rich middle aged fat people pretending to be daring and radical, interspersed with the odd forced sycophantic laugh from the audience.

Awful. Literally cringe-worthy. And this, again, is the glorious BBC of which we are meant to be so proud.

There is more humour (leftwing but clever) in 15 seconds of the Colbert Report, and I can watch that without having to pay a poll tax.

It's sort of gone that way I'm afraid, indeed i was thinking similar stuff on the whole of british comedy this morning. It's just predicatble and not that funny, some of the R4 stuff is truly dire, the best laugh on R4 remains I'm sorry I haven't clue which is staffed by a bunch of pensioners pre alternative comedy. The rest of BBC output isn't much better, most of the funny stuff comes from the States these days, home stuff is just turgid and repetitive.

Sunil_Prasannan

GeoffM said:

SeanT said:

Or do you think the insights of Henry G - "Ed Miliband will be gone in 2012" - Manson, are so startling and remarkable people will come here just to read whatever bilge he had concocted today?

Indeed. Some of us come here *despite* the thread headers, not because of them.

"Are you not entertained? Are you not entertained? Is this not why you are here?" - Maximus Decimus Meridius (aka. Russell Crowe).

Roger

Interesting that Geordie Greig is an Old Etonian. For all the faults in the public school system and all the iniquities of that sort of education one thing you can say is that generally they abide by a code of behaviour that is completely unknown to a vulgarian oik like Paul Dacre.

It's definately a step in the right direction that he's likely to take Dacre's job very soon.

foxinsoxuk

No where near as bad as Citizen Khan! Has Godfrey Bloom taken up script writing?

SeanT said:

Scott_P said:

Oh no. HIGNFY just did a joke about Ed's wife. Cue a week of outrage and letters to the editor. Or not

]

Back from the pub, I happened across HIGNFY tonight, for the first time in years.

Ohmyword. Was it always this unfunny? I hope not, but jeez it's just desperate now. Bunch of rich middle aged fat people pretending to be daring and radical, interspersed with the odd forced sycophantic laugh from the audience.

Awful. Literally cringe-worthy. And this, again, is the glorious BBC of which we are meant to be so proud.

There is more humour (leftwing but clever) in 15 seconds of the Colbert Report, and I can watch that without having to pay a poll tax.

Mick_Pork

tim said:

Mick_Pork said:

There's more behind Dacre's ridiculous tantrum than merely trying and failing to give little Ed a slap or even stirring up trouble ahead of the governments next response to Leveson.

The beancounters at DMGT will have been painting quite a stark picture of just how successful the celeb gossip heavy Mail online is in numerical terms. They will have been pointing at Mail online and asking Rothermere, 'why don't we go down this road for print?' A question that Geordie Greig has asked himself too it would seem.

It's not quite that simple of course but after this week it's going to be very tempting for Rothermere to try to cut down on Dacre's notoriously unsubtle political posturing. This was Dacre very clearly trying to make certain the Mail remained in the forefront of politics despite ongoing pressure for a more celeb gossip style positioning. And he blew it in fine style.

I'd keep an eye out for the MoS getting some big celebrity scoops as I suspect that's going to be where this battle goes next.

Jim Pickard ‏@PickardJE 17m
Greig v Dacre. Tensions at the top of Mail empire. FT analysis http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/68ec4b42-2d0b-11e3-8281-00144feab7de.html …

Does it go into Martin Clarke's increasing power due to Mail online and the resources being heaped into it by DMGT? Just curious as I don't have paywall access.

Dacre is rumoured not to even use a computer screen to view articles and fixes them with a fountain pen, so wedded is he to print.

Alanbrooke

Roger said:

Interesting that Geordie Greig is an Old Etonian. For all the faults in the public school system and all the iniquities of that sort of education one thing you can say is that generally they abide by a code of behaviour that is completely unknown to a vulgarian oik like Paul Dacre.

It's definately a step in the right direction that he's likely to take Dacre's job very soon.

good to see you're for equality and fairness except when you're not.

Carola

foxinsoxuk said:

No where near as bad as Citizen Khan! Has Godfrey Bloom taken up script writing?

SeanT said:

Scott_P said:

Oh no. HIGNFY just did a joke about Ed's wife. Cue a week of outrage and letters to the editor. Or not

]

Back from the pub, I happened across HIGNFY tonight, for the first time in years.

Ohmyword. Was it always this unfunny? I hope not, but jeez it's just desperate now. Bunch of rich middle aged fat people pretending to be daring and radical, interspersed with the odd forced sycophantic laugh from the audience.

Awful. Literally cringe-worthy. And this, again, is the glorious BBC of which we are meant to be so proud.

There is more humour (leftwing but clever) in 15 seconds of the Colbert Report, and I can watch that without having to pay a poll tax.

I raise you 'Big School'. I watched the first episode. After the first five minutes I was watching it to see if it could possibly get any worse.

JohnLilburne

I'm off to Ascot tomorrow, mostly for the beer I admit but I thought I might put a few bets on. Does anyone have any tips they're willing to share?

ta.

Alanbrooke

tim said:

Roger said:

Interesting that Geordie Greig is an Old Etonian. For all the faults in the public school system and all the iniquities of that sort of education one thing you can say is that generally they abide by a code of behaviour that is completely unknown to a vulgarian oik like Paul Dacre.

It's definately a step in the right direction that he's likely to take Dacre's job very soon.

Is Dacre an oik, I thought he was the classic hateful insecure product of a minor public school who's daddy didn't fight in the war.

biting satire tim, I think that might actually be Roger's personal position too. Do you always shoot your own side ?

Roger

@SeanT

"lol. I just had drinks in W8, with a bunch of Mail journalists"

I'm very friendly with the wife of one and Dacre isn't at all popular from what I understand

Scott_P

SeanT said:

Greig is a posh David Moyes to Dacre's Alex Ferguson. The Rothermeres - my guess - want to find someone better than David Moyes.

Is anyone quoting odds on Dacre still being in post for the next election?

Mick_Pork

Roger said:

It's definately a step in the right direction that he's likely to take Dacre's job very soon.

Not that soon but anyone who thinks the amusing Steafel or even Verity or Carter are remotely as well positioned are ignorant fools.

SouthamObserver

How long were you in the pub for SeanT?

Charles

Roger said:

Interesting that Geordie Greig is an Old Etonian. For all the faults in the public school system and all the iniquities of that sort of education one thing you can say is that generally they abide by a code of behaviour that is completely unknown to a vulgarian oik like Paul Dacre.

It's definately a step in the right direction that he's likely to take Dacre's job very soon.

Said the Millfield lad... ;-)

JohnO

Charles said:

Roger said:

Interesting that Geordie Greig is an Old Etonian. For all the faults in the public school system and all the iniquities of that sort of education one thing you can say is that generally they abide by a code of behaviour that is completely unknown to a vulgarian oik like Paul Dacre.

It's definately a step in the right direction that he's likely to take Dacre's job very soon.

Said the Millfield lad... ;-)

Said (another) Old Etonian

Mick_Pork

Roger said:

I'm very friendly with the wife of one and Dacre isn't at all popular from what I understand

Mugabe not popular with the common hacks? What unmitigated nonsense!

LOL

AveryLP

tim said:

Roger said:

Interesting that Geordie Greig is an Old Etonian. For all the faults in the public school system and all the iniquities of that sort of education one thing you can say is that generally they abide by a code of behaviour that is completely unknown to a vulgarian oik like Paul Dacre.

It's definately a step in the right direction that he's likely to take Dacre's job very soon.

Is Dacre an oik, I thought he was the classic hateful insecure product of a minor public school whose daddy didn't fight in the war.

Correct, tim.

But there is a world of difference between Greig's social upbringing and that of Dacre's.

Greig is about as establishment as you can get without being Royal.

Dacre is an Enfield son of an aspirant newspaper man.

Greig is the odd man out in the industry.

And Roger's social comments are sans-pareil on PB. Much may they continue!

JosiasJessop

tim said:

Roger said:

Interesting that Geordie Greig is an Old Etonian. For all the faults in the public school system and all the iniquities of that sort of educ
ation one thing you can say is that generally they abide by a code of behaviour that is completely unknown to a vulgarian oik like Paul Dacre.

It's definately a step in the right direction that he's likely to take Dacre's job very soon.

Is Dacre an oik, I thought he was the classic hateful insecure product of a minor public school whose daddy didn't fight in the war.

Thus smearing everyone who did not 'fight in the war' as being in some way bad or cowards.

You really are a sh*t. Perhaps you should get over your ever-present cowardice and let us know what your parents / grandparents, uncles and extended family did in the war.

Alanbrooke

JosiasJessop said:

tim said:

Roger said:

Interesting that Geordie Greig is an Old Etonian. For all the faults in the public school system and all the iniquities of that sort of educ
ation one thing you can say is that generally they abide by a code of behaviour that is completely unknown to a vulgarian oik like Paul Dacre.

It's definately a step in the right direction that he's likely to take Dacre's job very soon.

Is Dacre an oik, I thought he was the classic hateful insecure product of a minor public school whose daddy didn't fight in the war.

Thus smearing everyone who did not 'fight in the war' as being in some way bad or cowards.

You really are a sh*t. Perhaps you should get over your ever-present cowardice and let us know what your parents / grandparents, uncles and extended family did in the war.

leave it Toryboy, I suppose you've got something against U Boat commanders too ?

Morris_Dancer

Good evening, everyone.

Been rather unpleasant on here today.

Charles

tim said:

@Charles
@Roger
@Avery

Is there a league table of public schools somewhere, not in exam results, obviously that counts for sod all, I'm talking how they see each other.

Nah, Eton's in a different League...

(More seriously, I'd say that Westminster, Eton, St. Paul's & Winchester are the top division, then Radley, Harrow, Rubgy, Ampleforth, etc. Then the rest. I've probably missed a couple in the second division - by no means a comprehensive (boom tish) list.

Carola

Boris Johnson must stop acting the buffoon if he wants to be PM, says @thetimes/@YouGov focus group of swing voters http://thetim.es/1a7xLTc

Morris_Dancer

Mr. T, a possible link/comparison for your blog: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGBfYoldZQ4&feature=related

It's not included in the two best of NTNON news DVDs (or wasn't when I bought them).

AveryLP

tim said:

@Charles
@Roger
@ Avery

Is there a league table of public schools somewhere, not in exam results, obviously that counts for sod all, I'm talking how they see each other.

Of course there is.

Eton has always been top.
Harrow considers it is Eton's equal.

Winchester doesn't care: it is cleverer than both.

Westminster and St Pauls are too metropolitan.

Rugby, Radley, Marlborough, Charterhouse etc are all premier league but not in the top four or five.

Fettes and Glenalmond are Scotland's Eton and Harrow.

Ampleforth (Benedictine) is the Catholic Eton. Stonyhurst (Jesuit) and Downside (Benedictine is Harrow to Ampleforth's Eton).

And then you have school's associated with certain backgrounds, e.g. Wellington College with the Army.

Roger

@Charles

"Said the Millfield lad... ;-)"

Last year the Old Millfield Society asked members if they could send in photos of their year. I sent in an outstanding one of a very popular captain of the rugby team-a friend of mine-being lifted up after winning an important school rugby match.

It was notably better than any other photos taken of my year and better than most others on the site but they wouldn't use it. He'd been found murdered in an apartment with a seventeen year old girl in the Phillipines a year earlier so the editorial staff found it to be in bad taste.

So even my fee paying comprehensive had standards.....

MonikerDiCanio

SeanT said:

Alanbrooke said:

SeanT said:

Scott_P said:

Oh no. HIGNFY just did a joke about Ed's wife. Cue a week of outrage and letters to the editor. Or not

]

Back from the pub, I happened across HIGNFY tonight, for the first time in years.

Ohmyword. Was it always this unfunny? I hope not, but jeez it's just desperate now. Bunch of rich middle aged fat people pretending to be daring and radical, interspersed with the odd forced sycophantic laugh from the audience.

Awful. Literally cringe-worthy. And this, again, is the glorious BBC of which we are meant to be so proud.

There is more humour (leftwing but clever) in 15 seconds of the Colbert Report, and I can watch that without having to pay a poll tax.

It's sort of gone that way I'm afraid, indeed i was thinking similar stuff on the whole of british comedy this morning. It's just predicatble and not that funny, some of the R4 stuff is truly dire, the best laugh on R4 remains I'm sorry I haven't clue which is staffed by a bunch of pensioners pre alternative comedy. The rest of BBC output isn't much better, most of the funny stuff comes from the States these days, home stuff is just turgid and repetitive.

You've convinced me. I'm gonna do a blog on the Death of British Comedy. Just need to find a way in.

Basically I'm a-gonna HATE on the BBC.

One of my drinking pals today is a highly cultured lefty- producer of TV documentaries - who has gone from defending the BBC at all costs to absolutely loathing it, and he doesn't mind who knows.

As we all should. It is culturally poisoning the entire country. I now see it as a measure of basic political intelligence: if you still support the BBC as it is, license fee and all, then you are a f*ckwit.

The BBC is fond of the Labour propaganda phrase " Bedroom Tax ". How about an article on the BBC Television Tax not being funny anymore ?

foxinsoxuk

Where does my alma mater fit in your list?

Grimesbottom Bog standard Comprehensive.

I am sure that we are above Millfield on goal difference. Or would be if they played proper footy rather than Rugger Buggery!

AveryLP said:

tim said:

@Charles
@Roger
@ Avery

Is there a league table of public schools somewhere, not in exam results, obviously that counts for sod all, I'm talking how they see each other.

Of course there is.

Eton has always been top.
Harrow considers it is Eton's equal.

Winchester doesn't care: it is cleverer than both.

Westminster and St Pauls are too metropolitan.

Rugby, Radley, Marlborough, Charterhouse etc are all premier league but not in the top four or five.

Fettes and Glenalmond are Scotland's Eton and Harrow.

Ampleforth (Benedictine) is the Catholic Eton. Stonyhurst (Jesuit) and Downside (Benedictine is Harrow to Ampleforth's Eton).

And then you have school's associated with certain backgrounds, e.g. Wellington College with the Army.

JosiasJessop

tim said:

JosiasJessop said:

tim said:

Roger said:

Interesting that Geordie Greig is an Old Etonian. For all the faults in the public school system and all the iniquities of that sort of educ
ation one thing you can say is that generally they abide by a code of behaviour that is completely unknown to a vulgarian oik like Paul Dacre.

It's definately a step in the right direction that he's likely to take Dacre's job very soon.

Is Dacre an oik, I thought he was the classic hateful insecure product of a minor public school whose daddy didn't fight in the war.

Thus smearing everyone who did not 'fight in the war' as being in some way bad or cowards.

You really are a sh*t. Perhaps you should get over your ever-present cowardice and let us know what your parents / grandparents, uncles and extended family did in the war.

Yes because writing editorials questioning someones patriotism who did join up means you get a free pass.

But you don't need a free pass, do you? Because of your cowardice, your ability to throw mud but remain hidden under your petty little rock, you can say whatever you want without anyone knowing if you're being an f'ing hypocrite.

There were plenty of good people who did not 'fight in the war', but still did worthwhile jobs that helped us win the war. Your infantile statements marks such people as second-class.

But as usual, you don't care about people. You just care about scoring political points.

Toms

Speaking of the BBC, I rather hate it for its attempts by every sneaky and dishonest means they can think of to push on us DAB radio, a 20 year outmoded digital system that is patently inferior in sound and conveneince to ordinary analogue fm radio.

AveryLP

tim said:

@Charles
@Roger
@Avery

Is there a league table of public schools somewhere, not in exam results, obviously that counts for sod all, I'm talking how they see each other.

I forgot the mid-twentieth century oddballs mainly founded by eccentrics.

Millfield was founded by a man equally driven by sport as he was by levitation.

Gordonstoun on cold showers, deprivation and highland yomping.

Bedales all liberal and girly.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Toms, I'll be a bit irked when I have to give up my ancient Sony Walkman. I think my dad bought me it decades ago, probably when Thatcher was still in power. My previous walkman had only play, stop and fast forward buttons (to reverse the tape you had to eject and turn the cassette the other way up). But, when analogue radio stops being broadcast it'll become useless.

Roger

@Tim

"Is there a league table of public schools somewhere, not in exam results, obviously that counts for sod all, I'm talking how they see each other."

Without joking Millfield used to judge public schools by the standard of their sports team particularly rugby. Because Millfield used to offer scholarships to all the best players from the Welsh grammar schools (JPR Williams John Williams Garath Edwards all played for them) Millfield regularly beat all the public schools by ridiculous scores.

Only the Welsh Grammar schools could give them a game. Eton wouldn't play them at all. It was always announced at the beginning of the winter term that Eton had "FIXTURE PROBLEMS" which we were all required to laugh at. Infact because we weren't members of the Public Schools association they wouldn't play us. No one believed it. Marlborough took their punishment though

Sunil_Prasannan

SeanT said:

I wonder if Our Friend Tim went to a minor public school.

If it helps, I'll go first: I went to a bog-standard comp. Aylestone. Hereford.

Ilford County High School, a grammar.

CarlottaVance

tim said:

SeanT said:

I wonder if Our Friend Tim went to a minor public school.

Tim?

If it helps, I'll go first: I went to a bog-standard comp. Aylestone. Hereford.

tim?

Bog standard comp

Snap!

flange

Morris_Dancer said:

Good evening, everyone.

Been rather unpleasant on here today.

Hasn't it just.

I don't think it's particularly limited to just today though, either.

Scott_P

tim said:

you'd know we can't reply to it.

and yet you replied. Seek help.

RobD

Wouldn't that be something if tim and SeanT went to the same school! The mind boggles

Toms

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Toms, I'll be a bit irked when I have to give up my ancient Sony Walkman. I think my dad bought me it decades ago, probably when Thatcher was still in power. My previous walkman had only play, stop and fast forward buttons (to reverse the tape you had to eject and turn the cassette the other way up). But, when analogue radio stops being broadcast it'll become useless.

I sympathize. More that that I'm furious at the Beeb's sneaky degradation of the sound quality--- at our expense. It's actually a pretty long sorry tale of misrepresentation and maybe just pure ignorance on their part, as they have now virtually eliminated their once world-respected technical department.

SouthamObserver

Do you remember people on here hammering Labour over leaving our troops in Afghanistan under-protected and dangerously exposed:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/exclusive-revealed--how-ministry-of-defence-pennypinching-led-to-camp-bastion-disaster-8859897.html

AlastairMeeks

Two observations:

1) David Cameron's gains did not really come from Mail readers.

2) Labour's losses in 2010 were not among Mail readers.

CarlottaVance

SouthamObserver said:

Do you remember people on here hammering Labour over leaving our troops in Afghanistan under-protected and dangerously exposed:

How many dead on Labour's watch?

Scott_P

tim said:

you're empty

Which view makes your creepy obsession with every post all the more disturbing.

Seek help.

AlastairMeeks

School declaration: Ipswich School (minor public school) via scholarship.

Mick_Pork

SouthamObserver said:

Do you remember people on here hammering Labour over leaving our troops in Afghanistan under-protected and dangerously exposed:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/exclusive-revealed--how-ministry-of-defence-pennypinching-led-to-camp-bastion-disaster-8859897.html

Rings a bell. Ah well, at least Syria will have some company when Afghanistan collapses into utter chaos.