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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dave’s lead as “Best PM” is nearly wiped out when you add Nigel Farage to the equation
Even when things were at their worst in the polls for the Tories party loyalists clung onto to one polling tracker – who voters saw as “Best PM” where as the chart shows Dave had enjoyed large and in the summer increasing leads.
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Amendment: before "Nigel" insert "include"
Can Mike or anyone else provide the url?
Omitting UKIP and/or Farage from English poll questionnaires these days would be almost as daft as omitting the Scottish National Party and/or Salmond from Scottish poll questionnaires. Like it or not, UKIP have "arrived" in England and the polling industry needs to adapt to that fact.
By the way, stunningly good UKIP result in that Taunton by-election on Thursday. From nowhere to a good 2nd place finish. Somerset seems to be one of the few UKIP hotspots in western England.
Another interesting fact is that UKIP seem to be contesting nearly ever local by-election these days, in contrast to the Lib Dems. Are the Lib Dem membership numbers now so catastrophic that they cannot find enough people willing to put their names on ballot papers?
3rd Quarter 2013 - Number of candidates put up in local by-elections (average number of votes per candidate)
Con 65 (353)
Lab 58 (484)
UKIP 53 (268)
LD 40 (217)
Grn 19 (172)
TUSC 6 (87)
PC 2 (545)
BNP 1 (120)
http://averypublicsociologist.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/quarter-three-local-by-election-results.html
The Ed and Mail spat continues…!
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2444632/DAILY-MAIL-COMMENT-Time-inquiry-culture-practices-Labour.html#ixzz2gp8f0jc4
Not from nowhere according to Mr Senior of this parish, who reported they were 2nd in the by election there in May. – But as you say, a very good result for the purple and yellow team.
@GeoffM – “Dick Cole, leader of Mebyon Kernow, is more likely to become PM than Nigel Farage.”
Maybe so, but I think adding Mr Cole to the list is pushing things somewhat. – Didn’t SeanT canvass for M-K at the last GE?
What happens when you add Jean-Luc Picard to the equation?
Farage has no prospect of becoming PM.
Also, I made a cock-up. Forgot that Webber had a 10 place grid penalty for getting a lift in Singapore. Oh well.
One wonders when the Sun would proclaim on the front page that Dave and Ed are `neck and neck` in the PM ratings.
Best PM among VI:
Cameron: 88 (-4)
Miliband : 66 (-5)
Clegg: 49 (+6)
Farage: 58 (+58)
This was also the poll that showed Labour on +11......
I guess come 2015 this will come down to who voters realistically think might be PM and given 25% of Labour & LibDem and 30% of UKIP supporters still "don't know" (6% Con) still plenty to play for.
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/20w2n7te8u/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-250913.pdf
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/zxldrzv2x9/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-270913.pdf
The snag is that Cameron isn't very popular, and the fact that lots of people would prefer Farage illustrates that, though we knew it already. The line is de facto going to have to be "Vote for us as you disapprove of our leader slightly less", and it's not at all clear that that's enough to change VI.
Including Farage is a useful marker of whether Caneron actually become popular at some point, especially as the main Tory hope has to be that they'll recover nearly all the Kipper votes. So for Kipper fans the line is "Vote for us as you may like your leader more but our leader might be PM and you dislike him less than the other would-be PM", which probably hardly works at all. Cameron needs to become genuinely popular for the "change your VI to keep him" line to work.
Arf!
What's more because of the nature of the beast (even Murdoch looks classy in comparison) they can't give ground so the sleazy hole they're digging just seems to be getting bigger and bigger.
The Green agenda has been exposed as a tax-raising sham/fraud/deceit and Greens are the Canutes of today: their proposals have zero chance of changing the planet's climate and at their recent conference their immigrant, Australian leader espoused policies somewhere to the left of Marx and Lenin.
The high tide of 'Greenery' was 2007, when we wanted cleaner energy - now all we want is cheaper energy (something RedEd now, belatedly, recognises, though it was his incompetence and scientific illiteracy which created the current 'Renewables/Green Tax/Carbon Tax insanity)
However, when the signal degrades past the capability of the error correction, the displayed picture / audio quality declines rapidly. As the data is compressed, even a single-bit error not caught by error correction can lead to significant on-screen effects. At times it's like a cliff, with the displayed picture degrading very rapidly.
On the other hand, the wonders of digital allows us to watch about eight channels of Big Brother, many channels of Simon Cowell's gurning mug, or the new BBC ultra-high quality and well-acted series Atlantis.
So that's progress. Ahem.
"Arf!"
Arf indeed!
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/10/miliband-and-daily-mail-the-vultures-are-circling-the-free-press-again/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=miliband-and-daily-mail-the-vultures-are-circling-the-free-press-again
"The intro to Rod Liddle’s column in the magazine this week will strike a chord with many commentators on Fleet St.
-Ring, ring goes the telephone every minute God sends. Sometimes I pick it up and say hello, sometimes I don’t. I know who is calling, anyway. It is one or another media representative from the bien-pensant absolutist liberal left, and they are all in a dither about a man called Ralph Miliband, of whom they had probably never heard until a few hours ago, and whom they have most certainly not read. Their sense of excitement, these youngish callers from a multiplicity of BBC news stations and, of course, Channel 4 News, is palpable; it fizzes and crackles down the line, their outrage and their delight at possibly finding someone who might add to their outrage, perhaps cube their outrage. Unless it’s just the jackdaws hacking away at the telephone lines again. It could be that-
As for me, I’ve now had about 18 phone calls, 16 of them from the BBC, asking me to comment on this nonsense. The last call came a couple of hours ago, from BBC London. Would I like to discuss with Vanessa Feltz “whether the Daily Mail has gone too far?” Em, no thanks..."
MOST PEOPLE DON'T KNOW THE PRICE OF A VALUE LOAF, EITHER
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/10/04/most-voters-cant-guess-price-value-loaf/
Then again, the premise of Outcasts was perfectly sound and that was bloody awful. Don't think I'll keep watching this time (and who the hell thought a virus could be transmitted by sound? And that it'd stop existing when the transmission ended?).
Since they were already on 3.3% in 2010, that seems like quite a tall order.
RT @phil_nicholas: “@Daily_Ref: Just love this Daily Mail guide to Socialism: pic.twitter.com/MYcSLi5xGA”
Couldn't sleep so spent the night watching Poirot episodes on Youtube. David Suchet is an absolute god as far as playing the character is concerned.
"MOST PEOPLE DON'T KNOW THE PRICE OF A VALUE LOAF, EITHER"
I saw a very nice line of cards for people recently divorced. One had a man walking into the supermarket asking a shop assistant if she could tell him where he could find toast.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-fire-crew-rescued-man-who-got-his-penis-stuck-in-a-toaster-8858912.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-24368485
Net Govt approval:
GB: -23
FR: -53
DE: -40
DK: -48
SW: -30
FN: -34
NO: -1
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/oqhuuatt8g/YG-Archive-September-Eurotrack-results-270913.pdf
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/willheaven/100239857/mehdi-hasan-and-the-daily-mail-some-context/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
5/4 Eleanor Laing
9/4 Brian Binley
3/1 Simon Burns
20/1 Nadine Dorries
Do they think their readers don't know what one looks like?
"Some interesting photos of old Bucharest"
Very interesting. I went to an exhibition of East European photographers (mainly Hungarian) from the early middle 20th century which was outstanding. It's intersting to note that most of the century's finest reportage photographers were spawned from that movement largely thanks to Hitler's forced diaspora
McBride could be making it all up of course, but I very much doubt it.
What is also obvious is how much of a team Brown, Miliband and Balls were in the Treasury. It must've been hell of a loss to Gordon Brown when the two acolytes struck out on their own around 2005. I have no doubt Brown would've had a happier time of it as PM had those two been with him.
For all my dislike of Brown I find him a fascinating character to read about. Politics is far less interesting without him.
ps - weird moment. I saw a picture of the evil nurse Beverly Allitt last night on telly. Geez, she's a ringer for Johann Hari!!!
"@Roger I hope he knew what the toaster was for."
Now which of us hasn't made that mistake
Not that concrete is bad in itself, of course. The Romans built the Colosseum out of it, after all.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2444637/Mehdi-Hasan-journalist-attacked-Daily-Mail-Question-Time-asked-write-paper.html
Farage tipped to fight Tory MP for Commons seat of South Thanet at next election
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2445212/UKIP-leader-Nigel-Farage-tipped-fight-Tory-MP-Commons-seat-South-Thanet-election.html#ixzz2gpaRrMal
Mr. Isam, that's a problem generally. Stupid white man is most often mocked in adverts. I don't think the demographic should be off-limits, just that things do seem rather one-sided. I still remember the 'stick the boot in' poster ads.
"Just imagine how people on here would react if that card was mocking a stereotype of women, gay men, black people etc , and was described as very nice by a right wing poster"
Not very PC but sometimes that can have a charm
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret1m
Dacre just spotted asking hotel receptionist if she would mind going on Newsnight to defend him #coward Keep going til flushed out @alextomo
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret3m
.“@davehardy73: My Name Is... by Alastair Campbell http://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/009195391X/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_Pe7tsb0CM5FGD … via @AmazonUK < This book is outstanding, you have to read<thanks
Absolutely agree, i dont feel offended in the slightest, but the same principle should apply to every sex, race, and sexual preference if equality is what people are really after.
"As both parties launched their campaigns for the Dunfermline by-election, Labour also challenged the First Minister to explain the SNP’s policy over the freeze after a split in the Nationalist ranks appeared to deepen."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10356986/Ed-Balls-goads-Alex-Salmond-over-energy-freeze-pledge.html
The reply: That's easy dear. I make Daddy do the washing up.
With a circulation more than 5 times that of the Grauniad, that's an interesting idea.
I think it was Tom Bower who wrote about him saying Brown had a very good and very dark side, and those who worked around him tried manfully to get the good side to win out. In the end, it didn't. Raw ambition clouded his better judgement.
"Why did they feel the need to illustrate the article with a photo of a toaster?!
Do they think their readers don't know what one looks like?"
A man went into a shop and asked for a bag of potatoes.
"I'm sorry but we don't sell potatoes we're mohels" (man who performs Jewish circumcision)
"Well why the hell have you got potatoes in your window?"
"What do you want us to put in our window?"
;-)
Andrew Neil @afneil
Mehdi Mehdi Mehdi. Tell me the Daily Mail has faked your letter asking for a job. You're the victim of a modern Zinoviev letter. Surely!?
Interesting that the book is not anti-Labour, but Damian is still a Labour man (and a good Catholic boy). Possibly Ed and he were friends, which makes Ed's protestations of ignorance weaker, but what should he have done about the smearing?
It was all in a good cause - the triumph of the party, Brown would have been annoyed with any criticism, and Ed is ambitious.
I need to go and clean myself.
Of course, very few will read the book - far more will read the Mail's:
"McBride Sordid Revelations!"
"Ed was his best mate!!"
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/oct/04/labour-health-andy-burnham-cqc-interference-hospital
If the next round of emails showed that there was pressure from Burnham and Co in Feb 2010, it might have been good tactics to retain votes, but will it damage the long term image of the party which cares for the NHS? On the other hand the emails could exonerate the guy...
Predictable stuff about Tory smears from Prescott, but if it is a case of low political cunning from Burnham, it could backfire.
Sorry, I was as cut off in my prime.
If Ed saw this "naughtiness" would he embarrass the party by revealing it? And if he is political (does the Pope sh*t in the woods?), he probably thinks Tories are vermin anyway. So would the means justify the ends?
I thought that too when I was seventeen, but I soon learned that all groups are a mixture of good people and not-so-good people.
I had an interesting discussion with a group last week on Cameron vs Ed. The general consensus from the non-Tory voters was that Cameron is a posh fop but he means well, despite leading a potentially nasty party. Only one Labour activist disagreed, arguing that Cameron must be a bastard cos he's a Tory. A line met with amused tolerance by the others.
I've never spilled the beans on anything I picked up, tempting as it was. Not that she told anyone much.
Though it's not giving much away to say that Prescott was a considerate boss when it came to realising that people might have a life outside the job, whereas Brown expected everyone to give their soul to it.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-Happy-Depressive-PoliticalHappiness/dp/0099579820/ref=pd_bxgy_b_text_z
He is all over the media like a rash, some of his tweets read as if he is up then down, exhilarated by an exciting fight but impaired judgement and vision.
People will say that UKIP is standing in most seats. So what. Doesn't the Monster Raving Loony Party and its affiliates do the same?
Meanwhile back in the real world have we finally got rid of the Ed v Daily Mail stories? I see that ultra leftie Mehdi Hassan who decries the Daily Mail apparently sent a gushing letter some time ago to Mr Dacre asking for a job. How long until Ed gets a regular column in the Daily Mail?
That he was allowed to pootle around crying at various climate conferences suggests Gordon thought - like the rest of the country - that Ed is crap.
Gentle mockery is a good thing and should be encouraged. But too often racists or professional grievance-mongers will take offence. So it's better to have a bright line test that you can then choose to ignore.
I'm not a fan of the current legal set-up.
(Cameron 18%, Clegg 49%, Farage 3%, Miliband 5%, Don't Know 25%)
By contrast, David Cameron is still viewed as a “toff” but his conference speech impressed a majority of the group, being described as “more positive”, having “good leadership style” and “confident but arrogant”. Nick Clegg is struggling to be trusted in a “naked search for power” and is seen as unable to stand up to Mr Cameron, although Angela, who voted Liberal Democrat in 2010, said that she thought “he is starting to come across as a strong leader”. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article3887330.ece
The election is really going to come down to 3 questions:
1. Core turnout (and I suspect neither base will be enthused unless it becomes a titanic struggle of two implacably opposed worldviews. Or something)
2. UKIP nose holders voting Tory
3. 2010LDs voting LD
I suspect, ultimately, many of (2) will vote for the Tories, and many of (3) will abstain. Whether that will be enough to get the Tories over the line, who knows. My working assumption is a hung parliament, with Labour as the largest party.
Whether this poll is as hugely significant as some on here think or it's just another piece of data to be spun one way or another by the partisan contributors remains to be seen.
What it does offer is an insight into the core questions - not so much HOW people vote but WHY in terms of the criteria (if any) used to determine the decision on which way to put the X on the ballot paper.
A couple of weeks ago, David argued that the problem politicians have is that the electorate's wish-list of policies is not only mutually contradictory but often unaffordable, unethical and in some instances illegal under international law. All parties can therefore do is to shout about the bits of their programme that they know the public like while keeping silent about the bits that they know the public doesn't like but which need to be in the programme to make the popular bits workable.
I've often thought that people vote against parties far more than for them but what I don't know is where that ranks in the decision-making process. Is it party or anti-party first or is it which Leader they like or dislike more or is it based on a single policy or any local factors or is it all or indeed none of these ?
3 Lab, 3 Con, 2 LibDem in 2010 has become 1 Lab, 5 Con, 2 LibDem .
These folks are from marginal seats. Small sample but interesting nevertheless as it flies in the face of the chatterati verdict.
Hmm. Discounting racing books, my last four purchases have been recommended on pb: McBride; Hedge Hogs (natural gas trading damaged the wider economy, pensions and hedge funds); Lord Levy; Making It Happen (RBS and the British side of the financial crisis). These go alongside three books by pb authors.
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
Times focus group: 3 voted Lab, 3 Con, 2 LD, in 2010: now 1 EdM, 5 Cam, 2 Clegg (most like to see as PM) £ thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/polit…
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnexpress
@JohnRentoul the trouble is John that this is so obviously the result the paper would have wanted at the outset. Times v partial these days.
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
@oflynnexpress The focus group convened and run by YouGov. And it was not the result that the Times expected.
The MoE on this would be 35%
We'd be better off analysing a Scottish Subsample.
Still the smallest focus group in the papers was 4 voters for The Indy in 2007.
London wins top spot in crappest town in the UK listings - Hull didn't even come close.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/oct/05/crap-towns-london-bradford-chipping-norton
You were right (not that I ever doubted you)
I've spent the last three days in Edinburgh.
Out of the six taxi drivers I spoke with on my journeys, five of them were UKIPers and the sixth was an SDLer.
Does anyone take the "Best PM" question seriously? No, I thought not.
http://freethoughtblogs.com/maryamnamazie/2013/10/04/lse-update/
It follows Birmingham university's sad capitulation on the wearing of face-coverings, and the ludicrous confiscation of a pineapple called Mohammed at Reading university. There's a debate at LSE on the burka 15 Oct which might be interesting.