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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first forecast for the midterms gives the Democrats a 75%

SystemSystem Posts: 11,017
edited August 2018 in General
imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first forecast for the midterms gives the Democrats a 75% chance of winning back the House

The US election forecasting site 538 issues its first projection for the House Race in this year's midterms.https://t.co/7Fgl3lPy64 pic.twitter.com/ZFoQe2eReF

Read the full story here

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Comments

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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,832

    IMHO, precedent suggests that there ought to be a big swing against the Republicans in the House, even if the economy is performing strongly.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    Wonder if he’ll do any better than the Presidential....
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    I think Trump will win big. So big. He'll embiggen the Republican triumph. That's what my sources tell me. Good sources. I have the best sources, nobody sources better than me.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Spot the gaps... https://twitter.com/MrTCHarris/status/1030475337807941632
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    At current prices I'd say the Democrats are at best a hold for the House of Representatives, not a buy. There's too much that's unprecedented.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    edited August 2018
    Morris_Dancer said:

    I think Trump will win big. So big. He'll embiggen the Republican triumph. That's what my sources tell me. Good sources. I have the best sources, nobody sources better than me.

    It'll be a cromulent result, for sure.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Mr. kle4, so many croms, America's bakers are making so much money, so much bread, croms for everyone.
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    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    Sean_F said:


    IMHO, precedent suggests that there ought to be a big swing against the Republicans in the House, even if the economy is performing strongly.

    I think based on the special elections, the Democrats will win. Otherwise, I will lose faith in the US system completely. When a constituency is 200 miles long and 10 miles wide , something is seriously wrong.

    Has anyone heard how Cruz is doing ? I think Arizona could also flip now that Flake is retiring.
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    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    Morris_Dancer said:

    I think Trump will win big. So big. He'll embiggen the Republican triumph. That's what my sources tell me. Good sources. I have the best sources, nobody sources better than me.

    You think he will win bigly ?
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    edited August 2018
    AlastairMeeks said:

    At current prices I'd say the Democrats are at best a hold for the House of Representatives, not a buy. There's too much that's unprecedented.

    Sounds about right.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    surby said:

    You think he will win bigly ?

    Yuuuuuuuuuuuge
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,331
    surby said:

    Sean_F said:


    IMHO, precedent suggests that there ought to be a big swing against the Republicans in the House, even if the economy is performing strongly.

    I think based on the special elections, the Democrats will win. Otherwise, I will lose faith in the US system completely. When a constituency is 200 miles long and 10 miles wide , something is seriously wrong.

    Has anyone heard how Cruz is doing ? I think Arizona could also flip now that Flake is retiring.
    Cruz has a comfortable though not overwhelming lead:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tx/texas_senate_cruz_vs_orourke-6310.html

    Arizona polls still seem to be all about the GOP primary. Bad news for Dems is that the thuggish Arpaio isn't going to make it: his competitors seem less repellent, all things being relative.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,832
    edited August 2018
    surby said:

    Sean_F said:


    IMHO, precedent suggests that there ought to be a big swing against the Republicans in the House, even if the economy is performing strongly.

    I think based on the special elections, the Democrats will win. Otherwise, I will lose faith in the US system completely. When a constituency is 200 miles long and 10 miles wide , something is seriously wrong.

    Has anyone heard how Cruz is doing ? I think Arizona could also flip now that Flake is retiring.
    Arizona, Nevada, North Dakota, Indiana, Missouri and (surprisingly) Florida, all look very competitive.

    West Virginia looks safe for Joe Manchin, and Montana looks safe for Ben Tester.

    Cruz is about 6% ahead in Texas, but I doubt if he'll be in very much danger. Tennessee appears competitive right now, but will probably a safe Republican hold in November.

    Edit: it reflects extremely well on all the Red State Democrats that they should either be odds on to hold their Senate seats, or to be competitive. However, it does require them to vote with the Republicans quite frequently
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Mr. Surby, so big. So much bigness. I think you'll be amazed. No-one's ever won so big before.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,191
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Surby, so big. So much bigness. I think you'll be amazed. No-one's ever won so big before.

    Does anyone think Trump is compensating for something?
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    ydoethur said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Surby, so big. So much bigness. I think you'll be amazed. No-one's ever won so big before.

    Does anyone think Trump is compensating for something?
    His tiny br**n?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,191
    John_M said:

    ydoethur said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Surby, so big. So much bigness. I think you'll be amazed. No-one's ever won so big before.

    Does anyone think Trump is compensating for something?
    His tiny br**n?
    Surely not?

    That suggests he has one.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850
    It gets worse and worse for Jeremy Corbyn and Labour. There’s a rumour that photos have emerged of a courgette grown on his allotment which is a similar shape to a rocket propeller used by al-Qaeda in Afghanistan.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850
    bigjohnowls said:

    It gets worse and worse for Jeremy Corbyn and Labour. There’s a rumour that photos have emerged of a courgette grown on his allotment which is a similar shape to a rocket propeller used by al-Qaeda in Afghanistan.

    This comes on top of revelations that he has a beard, much like Palestinian terrorists, and his constituency is Islington, which starts with IS, or Islamic State. As a vegetarian he doesn’t eat pork, his friend John McDonnell’s initials are JM – that stands for Jihadist Muslim
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    2% mentioned Jeremy Corbyn and another 2% could recall the Labour anti-Semitism row:

    https://twitter.com/PopulusPolls/status/1030489461866606592

    Proof that the public are looking at very different news from the politically-obsessed. Note 17% remembered the Westminster car crash which has dropped off the radar of the politically-minded remarkably quickly.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,105
    Tissue_Price said:

    Spot the gaps... https://twitter.com/MrTCHarris/status/1030475337807941632

    "What would make a more effective leader of the UK Labour Party?

    Jeremy Corbyn 3%

    An unflushable toilet 97%"
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,105
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Surby, so big. So much bigness. I think you'll be amazed. No-one's ever won so big before.

    And those who don't vote Republican in November?

    Lock. Them. Up!

    Lock. Them. Up!
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Mr. Doethur, of course, he's compensating for the smallness of Democrats. It's called small Democrat humiliation. So popular on the fetish websites. The most popular. People just love it.

    [I'll stop now. Probably].
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    edited August 2018
    surby said:

    Sean_F said:


    IMHO, precedent suggests that there ought to be a big swing against the Republicans in the House, even if the economy is performing strongly.

    I think based on the special elections, the Democrats will win. Otherwise, I will lose faith in the US system completely. When a constituency is 200 miles long and 10 miles wide , something is seriously wrong.

    Has anyone heard how Cruz is doing ? I think Arizona could also flip now that Flake is retiring.
    200 by 10 isn’t inherently ridiculous, if the towns are joined in series and they’re isolated from other areas.

    Then again, nobody beats the USA when it comes to gerrymandering. The Ulster Unionists were amateurs by comparison.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    RoyalBlue said:

    surby said:

    Sean_F said:


    IMHO, precedent suggests that there ought to be a big swing against the Republicans in the House, even if the economy is performing strongly.

    I think based on the special elections, the Democrats will win. Otherwise, I will lose faith in the US system completely. When a constituency is 200 miles long and 10 miles wide , something is seriously wrong.

    Has anyone heard how Cruz is doing ? I think Arizona could also flip now that Flake is retiring.
    200 by 10 isn’t inherently ridiculous, if the towns are joined in series and they’re isolated from other areas.

    Then again, nobody beats the USA when it comes to gerrymandering. The Ulster Unionists were amateurs by comparison.
    The US system of allowing politicians to draw their own constituencies has got to be one of the more bonkers features of any Western democracy.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,191
    bigjohnowls said:

    It gets worse and worse for Jeremy Corbyn and Labour. There’s a rumour that photos have emerged of a courgette grown on his allotment which is a similar shape to a rocket propeller used by al-Qaeda in Afghanistan.

    As long as he doesn't grow a courgette that suggests a homage to Donald Trump.

    Although that would probably have to be a gherkin, wouldn't it?
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    bigjohnowls said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    It gets worse and worse for Jeremy Corbyn and Labour. There’s a rumour that photos have emerged of a courgette grown on his allotment which is a similar shape to a rocket propeller used by al-Qaeda in Afghanistan.

    This comes on top of revelations that he has a beard, much like Palestinian terrorists, and his constituency is Islington, which starts with IS, or Islamic State. As a vegetarian he doesn’t eat pork, his friend John McDonnell’s initials are JM – that stands for Jihadist Muslim
    Stop embarrassing yourself.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,105
    I see the BBC news has FINALLY woken up to the Indian monsoon devastation.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,603
    Friday night is Party night - CLP meeting this evening. I anticipate no discussion of antisemitism or wreathgate.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,105
    SandyRentool said:

    Friday night is Party night - CLP meeting this evening. I anticipate no discussion of antisemitism or wreathgate.

    But do let us know who they think will win Celebrity Big Brother.....
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    edited August 2018
    SandyRentool said:

    Friday night is Party night - CLP meeting this evening. I anticipate no discussion of antisemitism or wreathgate.

    CLP meeting on a Friday night?

    Sound about as much fun as an Association executive meeting on the same day...

    Yours in solidarity.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,191
    MarqueeMark said:

    I see the BBC news has FINALLY woken up to the Indian monsoon devastation.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news

    It does sound extremely bad. I can see why Sunil was so upset by it (and felt it should be higher in the news cycle).

    The weather across the globe this year has been genuinely alarming, but that's probably the worst manifestation of it so far.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Imran Khan confirmed as Pakistan prime minister"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-45219455
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,263
    ydoethur said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    I see the BBC news has FINALLY woken up to the Indian monsoon devastation.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news

    It does sound extremely bad. I can see why Sunil was so upset by it (and felt it should be higher in the news cycle).

    The weather across the globe this year has been genuinely alarming, but that's probably the worst manifestation of it so far.
    Most alarming is that it isn't an El Niño year.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189
    Just seen Rory the Tory on the Six O'Clock News. My mum says he does not look a well man and was surprised when I said some people think he will be the next PM.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @stephenkb: This excellent scoop by @JoeWatts_ shows why Labour’s only option is to front up and articulate Jeremy Corbyn’s for… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1030499685813944327
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    (((Dan Hodges))) - @DPJHodges: So there's another one to add to the list. Bseiso. Sizer. Salah. Eisen. Jahjah. Al-Taher. Any other Holocaust deniers, terror sympathisers or anti-Semites Corbyn's been unfortunate enough to accidentally bump into.
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,808
    Tissue_Price said:

    Spot the gaps... https://twitter.com/MrTCHarris/status/1030475337807941632

    I make 250 names there out of 262. Williamson (C) and McDonnell the easiest spots.
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    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    edited August 2018
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-consumer-sentiment-drops-to-11-month-low-in-august-2018-08-17

    "What happened: The decline was concentrated among households in the bottom third of the income distribution, the University of Michigan said. And the concern was rising prices.

    Buying conditions for large household durables, which include items such as furniture, cars and appliances, sank to the lowest level in nearly four years, the University of Michigan said, and for vehicles in particular the worst in the last four years."

    Oh, oh ! Just before November and it seems most of Trump supporters got it right in the goo***s !
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    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    AlastairMeeks said:

    2% mentioned Jeremy Corbyn and another 2% could recall the Labour anti-Semitism row:

    https://twitter.com/PopulusPolls/status/1030489461866606592

    Proof that the public are looking at very different news from the politically-obsessed. Note 17% remembered the Westminster car crash which has dropped off the radar of the politically-minded remarkably quickly.

    I really object to this biased sample. Equating Ben Stokes to Jeremy Corbyn is just not on. At 2:30 am, Jeremy is sound asleep.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,280
    Pro_Rata said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Spot the gaps... https://twitter.com/MrTCHarris/status/1030475337807941632

    I make 250 names there out of 262. Williamson (C) and McDonnell the easiest spots.
    Abbott
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    AlastairMeeks said:

    2% mentioned Jeremy Corbyn and another 2% could recall the Labour anti-Semitism row:

    https://twitter.com/PopulusPolls/status/1030489461866606592

    I am stunned - stunned! - that almost no one knows or cares about this.
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    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    Pro_Rata said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Spot the gaps... https://twitter.com/MrTCHarris/status/1030475337807941632

    I make 250 names there out of 262. Williamson (C) and McDonnell the easiest spots.
    I would have liked Heidi Allen in that list. She will get my vote any time.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,280
    edited August 2018
    You Gov poll on this showed 16 % thought worse of Corbyn while 3% said it had improved his standing. 47 % said they already have an adverse opinion on him

    I expect it will show in Corbyn's personal ratings as we move through September
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850
    RoyalBlue said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Friday night is Party night - CLP meeting this evening. I anticipate no discussion of antisemitism or wreathgate.

    CLP meeting on a Friday night?

    Sound about as much fun as an Association executive meeting on the same day...

    Yours in solidarity.
    Ours is always a Friday so the MP can attend.

    Last one I attended ended in a current "moderate" councillor shouting F**k off and trying to physically attack a comrade who was asking for clarification of which post we were electing.

    Came less than 5 mins into meeting which opened with a plea from the Chair for comradely behaviour.

    The aforementioned moderate councillor is the Chairs partner.

    Not at all awkward
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,979
    surby said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Spot the gaps... https://twitter.com/MrTCHarris/status/1030475337807941632

    I make 250 names there out of 262. Williamson (C) and McDonnell the easiest spots.
    I would have liked Heidi Allen in that list. She will get my vote any time.
    Well, she's my MP, and she has a lovely smile. For my son. :)
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,150
    ‘The rocks will melt with the sun before I allow tuition fees to be imposed on Scottish students.’ - Alec Salmond, 2011
    Now: Revealed: the Scottish uni courses for (feepaying) English students only
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/08/revealed-the-scottish-university-courses-only-open-to-englands-fee-paying-students/
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,280
    geoffw said:

    ‘The rocks will melt with the sun before I allow tuition fees to be imposed on Scottish students.’ - Alec Salmond, 2011
    Now: Revealed: the Scottish uni courses for (feepaying) English students only
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/08/revealed-the-scottish-university-courses-only-open-to-englands-fee-paying-students/

    That is unbelievable
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    bigjohnowls said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Friday night is Party night - CLP meeting this evening. I anticipate no discussion of antisemitism or wreathgate.

    CLP meeting on a Friday night?

    Sound about as much fun as an Association executive meeting on the same day...

    Yours in solidarity.
    Ours is always a Friday so the MP can attend.

    Last one I attended ended in a current "moderate" councillor shouting F**k off and trying to physically attack a comrade who was asking for clarification of which post we were electing.

    Came less than 5 mins into meeting which opened with a plea from the Chair for comradely behaviour.

    The aforementioned moderate councillor is the Chairs partner.

    Not at all awkward
    Gosh. How unpleasant :disappointed:
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    geoffw said:

    ‘The rocks will melt with the sun before I allow tuition fees to be imposed on Scottish students.’ - Alec Salmond, 2011
    Now: Revealed: the Scottish uni courses for (feepaying) English students only
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/08/revealed-the-scottish-university-courses-only-open-to-englands-fee-paying-students/

    Ho.Lee.Fuk. That's apartheid.

    It is worth bringing forward the links for the goodies on offer if you are English

    https://www.gla.ac.uk/study/clearing/ruk/

    vs. Scottish

    https://www.gla.ac.uk/study/clearing/scotland/
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JohnRentoul: Scoop by ⁦@JoeWatts_⁩ Labour still struggling to close this down because Corbyn is not being open with people https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-wreath-laying-palestine-israel-munich-massacre-bury-labour-party-a8496471.html
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    geoffw said:

    ‘The rocks will melt with the sun before I allow tuition fees to be imposed on Scottish students.’ - Alec Salmond, 2011
    Now: Revealed: the Scottish uni courses for (feepaying) English students only
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/08/revealed-the-scottish-university-courses-only-open-to-englands-fee-paying-students/

    Wasn't that a Yes Minister plot, where Sir Humphrey's old college preferred fee-paying overseas students?
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,979
    bigjohnowls said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Friday night is Party night - CLP meeting this evening. I anticipate no discussion of antisemitism or wreathgate.

    CLP meeting on a Friday night?

    Sound about as much fun as an Association executive meeting on the same day...

    Yours in solidarity.
    Ours is always a Friday so the MP can attend.

    Last one I attended ended in a current "moderate" councillor shouting F**k off and trying to physically attack a comrade who was asking for clarification of which post we were electing.

    Came less than 5 mins into meeting which opened with a plea from the Chair for comradely behaviour.

    The aforementioned moderate councillor is the Chairs partner.

    Not at all awkward
    You were electing a post? Given Labour's current position, I'd expect they'd elect a plank ... ;)
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,105
    ‘The rocks will melt with the sun before I allow tuition fees to be imposed on Scottish students. Both of them.’ - Alec Salmond, 2018
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    MarqueeMark said:

    ‘The rocks will melt with the sun before I allow tuition fees to be imposed on Scottish students. Both of them.’ - Alec Salmond, 2018

    And the Scots won't all go abroad, they will not go at all, or snap up the MAs in Religious & Philosophical Education with Secondary Teaching which Glasgow is generously putting their way. You'd implement this plan if making your own country wee, poor and stupid was your central aspiration.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,263
    kle4 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    2% mentioned Jeremy Corbyn and another 2% could recall the Labour anti-Semitism row:

    https://twitter.com/PopulusPolls/status/1030489461866606592

    I am stunned - stunned! - that almost no one knows or cares about this.
    Work through the recent YouGov stats. Eliminate everyone who wasn't following the story, was following it but didn't believe it, did believe it but thought better of Corbyn for it, or believed it and thought worse of Corbyn for it but were never going to vote Labour in the first place, and there is next to no-one left in the sample.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,105
    Scott_P said:

    @JohnRentoul: Scoop by ⁦@JoeWatts_⁩ Labour still struggling to close this down because Corbyn is not being open with people https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-wreath-laying-palestine-israel-munich-massacre-bury-labour-party-a8496471.html

    Labour's complaint to IPSO is looking even more ill-advised.

    What chance page 1 non-apologies from the papers concerned, saying they were bang on the money with their stories?
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited August 2018
    kle4 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    2% mentioned Jeremy Corbyn and another 2% could recall the Labour anti-Semitism row:

    https://twitter.com/PopulusPolls/status/1030489461866606592

    I am stunned - stunned! - that almost no one knows or cares about this.
    The Jewish press is, as you'd expect, running with this, so if there is anything in Hyufd's theory that it will alienate Jewish voters in some constituencies (mainly ones that have been returning Conservative MPs since the old king died, so far as I can make out), this may be why. My own anecdata from a bimonthly meeting of Jewish comrades is that it's not been mentioned -- Ken was a much bigger deal a few years back; the plight of French Jews comes up occasionally from Israeli visitors which presumably reflects coverage in Israel; otherwise it's much like pb: Brexit, bloody Brexit. It turns out Jews are people too: who'd have thunk it?
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,871
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    geoffw said:

    ‘The rocks will melt with the sun before I allow tuition fees to be imposed on Scottish students.’ - Alec Salmond, 2011
    Now: Revealed: the Scottish uni courses for (feepaying) English students only
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/08/revealed-the-scottish-university-courses-only-open-to-englands-fee-paying-students/

    That is unbelievable
    Big G it sounds like Fake News to me, no way would that be allowed to happen, garbage.
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    JohnRussellJohnRussell Posts: 297
    AlastairMeeks said:

    2% mentioned Jeremy Corbyn and another 2% could recall the Labour anti-Semitism row:

    https://twitter.com/PopulusPolls/status/1030489461866606592

    Proof that the public are looking at very different news from the politically-obsessed. Note 17% remembered the Westminster car crash which has dropped off the radar of the politically-minded remarkably quickly.

    Maybe the public have switched off from the incessant accusations, from both sides, that the other is the most evil group of people in the world. Both seem to be crying wolf too often,

    On the other hand I would say only 17% remembering the "Westminster Car Crash" (?!) is quite low

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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-45209868

    Well done Mrs Merkel.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    2% mentioned Jeremy Corbyn and another 2% could recall the Labour anti-Semitism row:

    https://twitter.com/PopulusPolls/status/1030489461866606592

    I am stunned - stunned! - that almost no one knows or cares about this.
    Work through the recent YouGov stats. Eliminate everyone who wasn't following the story, was following it but didn't believe it, did believe it but thought better of Corbyn for it, or believed it and thought worse of Corbyn for it but were never going to vote Labour in the first place, and there is next to no-one left in the sample.
    Perhaps I should have said 'innocent face' at the end of my post.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JohnRentoul: Scoop by ⁦@JoeWatts_⁩ Labour still struggling to close this down because Corbyn is not being open with people https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-wreath-laying-palestine-israel-munich-massacre-bury-labour-party-a8496471.html

    Labour's complaint to IPSO is looking even more ill-advised.

    What chance page 1 non-apologies from the papers concerned, saying they were bang on the money with their stories?
    Their attempt to silence/intimidate the press clearly isn't working. And long may that continue.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,280
    malcolmg said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    geoffw said:

    ‘The rocks will melt with the sun before I allow tuition fees to be imposed on Scottish students.’ - Alec Salmond, 2011
    Now: Revealed: the Scottish uni courses for (feepaying) English students only
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/08/revealed-the-scottish-university-courses-only-open-to-englands-fee-paying-students/

    That is unbelievable
    Big G it sounds like Fake News to me, no way would that be allowed to happen, garbage.
    It does seem unlikely but it needs the SNP to explain it
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    MaxPB said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-45209868

    Well done Mrs Merkel.

    If the world was destroyed, I would not go to Germany again," she said

    Ouch. A painful quote for a painful experience.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    Amazing what can be an act of neo-colonialism these days (not that I am generally inclined to take the side of Fifa, but colonialism? Come on)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/45221108
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Seeing reports of CLP meetings on Friday evenings... isn't that, in itself, something that could prevent Jewish participation in such events?

    Holding your meeting during Sabbath is not terribly inclusive...
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-45209868

    Well done Mrs Merkel.

    If the world was destroyed, I would not go to Germany again," she said

    Ouch. A painful quote for a painful experience.
    I hope we gave her status here, though I'm pretty sure Mrs May would invite the ISIS scumbag instead and give him access to housing and our benefits system.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    edited August 2018
    oxfordsimon said:

    Seeing reports of CLP meetings on Friday evenings... isn't that, in itself, something that could prevent Jewish participation in such events?

    Holding your meeting during Sabbath is not terribly inclusive...

    I think most party meetings at which the MP is expected are on Friday evenings for practical reasons.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    I do like in this story critical of Leave.EU and Arron Banks, failing to buy Guido lunch makes the list of things promised by Banks which never happened.

    https://order-order.com/2018/08/17/trg-vs-leave-eu/
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,871
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    malcolmg said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    geoffw said:

    ‘The rocks will melt with the sun before I allow tuition fees to be imposed on Scottish students.’ - Alec Salmond, 2011
    Now: Revealed: the Scottish uni courses for (feepaying) English students only
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/08/revealed-the-scottish-university-courses-only-open-to-englands-fee-paying-students/

    That is unbelievable
    Big G it sounds like Fake News to me, no way would that be allowed to happen, garbage.
    It does seem unlikely but it needs the SNP to explain it
    It is so ridiculous they should not be wasting time on it , really pathetic junk.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I wonder how many Democrats will forget to vote because they're too busy engaging in SJW activities.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,658
    malcolmg said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    malcolmg said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    geoffw said:

    ‘The rocks will melt with the sun before I allow tuition fees to be imposed on Scottish students.’ - Alec Salmond, 2011
    Now: Revealed: the Scottish uni courses for (feepaying) English students only
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/08/revealed-the-scottish-university-courses-only-open-to-englands-fee-paying-students/

    That is unbelievable
    Big G it sounds like Fake News to me, no way would that be allowed to happen, garbage.
    It does seem unlikely but it needs the SNP to explain it
    It is so ridiculous they should not be wasting time on it , really pathetic junk.
    Are the links posted by Ishmael fake news too Malcolm?
    Ishmael_Z said:

    geoffw said:

    ‘The rocks will melt with the sun before I allow tuition fees to be imposed on Scottish students.’ - Alec Salmond, 2011
    Now: Revealed: the Scottish uni courses for (feepaying) English students only
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/08/revealed-the-scottish-university-courses-only-open-to-englands-fee-paying-students/

    Ho.Lee.Fuk. That's apartheid.

    It is worth bringing forward the links for the goodies on offer if you are English

    https://www.gla.ac.uk/study/clearing/ruk/

    vs. Scottish

    https://www.gla.ac.uk/study/clearing/scotland/
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,280
    malcolmg said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    malcolmg said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    geoffw said:

    ‘The rocks will melt with the sun before I allow tuition fees to be imposed on Scottish students.’ - Alec Salmond, 2011
    Now: Revealed: the Scottish uni courses for (feepaying) English students only
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/08/revealed-the-scottish-university-courses-only-open-to-englands-fee-paying-students/

    That is unbelievable
    Big G it sounds like Fake News to me, no way would that be allowed to happen, garbage.
    It does seem unlikely but it needs the SNP to explain it
    It is so ridiculous they should not be wasting time on it , really pathetic junk.
    Just as a matter of interest do you have evidence of that.

    It does seem unlikely but the Spectator must have investigated it in depth
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,067
    Sam Curran
    Batting average 36.8
    Bowling average 23.5

    Ben Stokes
    Batting average 34.3
    Bowling average 33.0

    Stuart Broad
    Batting average 19.8
    Bowling average 28.8

    Get the feeling that the English cricket management pick their mates ?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    another_richard said:

    Sam Curran
    Batting average 36.8
    Bowling average 23.5

    Ben Stokes
    Batting average 34.3
    Bowling average 33.0

    Stuart Broad
    Batting average 19.8
    Bowling average 28.8

    Get the feeling that the English cricket management pick their mates ?

    Maybe, and there are questions to raise about the selection, but is comparing averages like really that fair when Curran only has 3 tests to his name? I'd have gone with him based on his performances, but rolling out the numbers like that isn't compelling due to the limited data.
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Mortimer said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Seeing reports of CLP meetings on Friday evenings... isn't that, in itself, something that could prevent Jewish participation in such events?

    Holding your meeting during Sabbath is not terribly inclusive...

    I think most party meetings at which the MP is expected are on Friday evenings for practical reasons.
    I was - initially - being somewhat flippant.

    However, having regularly scheduled meetings that can exclude a certain religious group is not, perhaps, the best way of running things. And MPs should be sensitive to that - irrespective of party or group.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    malcolmg said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    malcolmg said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    geoffw said:

    ‘The rocks will melt with the sun before I allow tuition fees to be imposed on Scottish students.’ - Alec Salmond, 2011
    Now: Revealed: the Scottish uni courses for (feepaying) English students only
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/08/revealed-the-scottish-university-courses-only-open-to-englands-fee-paying-students/

    That is unbelievable
    Big G it sounds like Fake News to me, no way would that be allowed to happen, garbage.
    It does seem unlikely but it needs the SNP to explain it
    It is so ridiculous they should not be wasting time on it , really pathetic junk.
    Just as a matter of interest do you have evidence of that.

    It does seem unlikely but the Spectator must have investigated it in depth
    If by 'investigated in depth' you mean 'visited the actual academic websites' then yes, it's true. I've even checked myself. It won't last long, I'm sure people will be scurrying to fix this unaccountable administrative error ;).
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,280
    John_M said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    malcolmg said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    malcolmg said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    geoffw said:

    ‘The rocks will melt with the sun before I allow tuition fees to be imposed on Scottish students.’ - Alec Salmond, 2011
    Now: Revealed: the Scottish uni courses for (feepaying) English students only
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/08/revealed-the-scottish-university-courses-only-open-to-englands-fee-paying-students/

    That is unbelievable
    Big G it sounds like Fake News to me, no way would that be allowed to happen, garbage.
    It does seem unlikely but it needs the SNP to explain it
    It is so ridiculous they should not be wasting time on it , really pathetic junk.
    Just as a matter of interest do you have evidence of that.

    It does seem unlikely but the Spectator must have investigated it in depth
    If by 'investigated in depth' you mean 'visited the actual academic websites' then yes, it's true. I've even checked myself. It won't last long, I'm sure people will be scurrying to fix this unaccountable administrative error ;).
    It would be a huge story in Scotland if true. The SNP need to address the accusation
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,067
    kle4 said:

    another_richard said:

    Sam Curran
    Batting average 36.8
    Bowling average 23.5

    Ben Stokes
    Batting average 34.3
    Bowling average 33.0

    Stuart Broad
    Batting average 19.8
    Bowling average 28.8

    Get the feeling that the English cricket management pick their mates ?

    Maybe, and there are questions to raise about the selection, but is comparing averages like really that fair when Curran only has 3 tests to his name? I'd have gone with him based on his performances, but rolling out the numbers like that isn't compelling due to the limited data.
    On data Curran deserves to play and on performances he deserves to play.

    Add on future potential - England are clearly going to win the series - so why not let Curran show what he's capable of.

    What Curran doesn't have yet is either the 'big name' nor being 'one of the gang'.
  • Options
    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    not_on_fire said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    surby said:

    Sean_F said:


    IMHO, precedent suggests that there ought to be a big swing against the Republicans in the House, even if the economy is performing strongly.

    I think based on the special elections, the Democrats will win. Otherwise, I will lose faith in the US system completely. When a constituency is 200 miles long and 10 miles wide , something is seriously wrong.

    Has anyone heard how Cruz is doing ? I think Arizona could also flip now that Flake is retiring.
    200 by 10 isn’t inherently ridiculous, if the towns are joined in series and they’re isolated from other areas.

    Then again, nobody beats the USA when it comes to gerrymandering. The Ulster Unionists were amateurs by comparison.
    The US system of allowing politicians to draw their own constituencies has got to be one of the more bonkers features of any Western democracy.
    That varies by state though. Some have boundary commissions quite similar to the UK's.

    And "gerrymander" was named for an American poltician!
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,056
    edited August 2018
    https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/1030517691566706688?s=21

    Former Scottish Labour MP Jim Sheridan:

    image
  • Options
    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    AndyJS said:

    I wonder how many Democrats will forget to vote because they're too busy engaging in SJW activities.

    QTWTAINone.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    John_M said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    malcolmg said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    malcolmg said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    geoffw said:

    ‘The rocks will melt with the sun before I allow tuition fees to be imposed on Scottish students.’ - Alec Salmond, 2011
    Now: Revealed: the Scottish uni courses for (feepaying) English students only
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/08/revealed-the-scottish-university-courses-only-open-to-englands-fee-paying-students/

    That is unbelievable
    Big G it sounds like Fake News to me, no way would that be allowed to happen, garbage.
    It does seem unlikely but it needs the SNP to explain it
    It is so ridiculous they should not be wasting time on it , really pathetic junk.
    Just as a matter of interest do you have evidence of that.

    It does seem unlikely but the Spectator must have investigated it in depth
    If by 'investigated in depth' you mean 'visited the actual academic websites' then yes, it's true. I've even checked myself. It won't last long, I'm sure people will be scurrying to fix this unaccountable administrative error ;).
    It would be a huge story in Scotland if true. The SNP need to address the accusation
    It's true, right now the rUK students have a greater choice. Sturgeon has spent all the money for Scottish students on bottom 5th quintile, and also Scots got their results earlier I believe - so essentially we're seeing the residual courses.
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/1030517691566706688?s=21

    Former Scottish Labour MP Jim Sheridan:

    image

    That is absolutely revolting.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,280
    oxfordsimon said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/1030517691566706688?s=21

    Former Scottish Labour MP Jim Sheridan:

    image

    That is absolutely revolting.
    As I said earlier labour are descending the abyss
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,105
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/1030517691566706688?s=21

    Former Scottish Labour MP Jim Sheridan:

    image

    The abyss has been in touch, to say that the Labour Party has passed right through on its way to the centre of the Earth.

    Arnie Saknussen says hi, Jeremy.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,280
    Trust Chris Williamson to attack Dame Margaret Hodge and demand that she reflects on her words and apologise
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/1030517691566706688?s=21

    Former Scottish Labour MP Jim Sheridan:

    image

    It's confounding that 'Blairite' is now the worst epithet in Labour's lexicon.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,280
    John_M said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/1030517691566706688?s=21

    Former Scottish Labour MP Jim Sheridan:

    image

    It's confounding that 'Blairite' is now the worst epithet in Labour's lexicon.
    Don't you know he was a tory PM
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,056
    John_M said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/1030517691566706688?s=21

    Former Scottish Labour MP Jim Sheridan:

    image

    It's confounding that 'Blairite' is now the worst epithet in Labour's lexicon.
    I see he resigned as a PPS in the Blair government in protest over its support for Israel.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,204
    Panic setting in at the unions. New party is "likely":


    https://twitter.com/DaveWardGS/status/1030467651787808769
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited August 2018
    bigjohnowls said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Friday night is Party night - CLP meeting this evening. I anticipate no discussion of antisemitism or wreathgate.

    CLP meeting on a Friday night?

    Sound about as much fun as an Association executive meeting on the same day...

    Yours in solidarity.
    Ours is always a Friday so the MP can attend.

    Last one I attended ended in a current "moderate" councillor shouting F**k off and trying to physically attack a comrade who was asking for clarification of which post we were electing.

    Came less than 5 mins into meeting which opened with a plea from the Chair for comradely behaviour.

    The aforementioned moderate councillor is the Chairs partner.

    Not at all awkward

    At one company where I worked (in the top 10 FTSE firms at the time), the sales director had an argument with the production director at the Executive Board meeting and they stepped outside to settle the argument wih a fight.

    At a different company (one of the big banks), again at the Exec Board, the Operations Director said F**k 17 times in sequence, claiming he was catching up with the Product Director.

    Normal life.
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    ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,505
    rottenborough said:

    Panic setting in at the unions. New party is "likely":


    https://twitter.com/DaveWardGS/status/1030467651787808769

    Just look at the comments underneath that. It's like someone has turned over a stone and all the unpleasant people at the edge of the left are scurrying about
  • Options
    PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    I was just reading a discussion in previous thread on LD chances in Wales. The interesting seat to watch is Brecon & Radnor - the sitting Tory MP Chris Davies is in some legal trouble which could result in a by-election. If this happens I expect to see Kirsty Williams AM stand and win. However I would then expect her to lose her Senedd seat to Conservatives...
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,105
    rottenborough said:

    Panic setting in at the unions. New party is "likely":


    https://twitter.com/DaveWardGS/status/1030467651787808769

    The new party "will be made up of the same people who never stood up for working people, never changed society and will never have the bottle to challenge the growing concentration of power and wealth."

    But stay. Stay. PLEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAASE stay.......
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    rottenborough said:

    Panic setting in at the unions. New party is "likely":


    https://twitter.com/DaveWardGS/status/1030467651787808769

    Silly season in full swing, always be wary of supposedly epochal changes.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/1030517691566706688?s=21

    Former Scottish Labour MP Jim Sheridan:

    image

    Now that is one of the more startling ones I've seen (from someone who presumably was not always so, er, extreme.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    another_richard said:

    kle4 said:

    another_richard said:

    Sam Curran
    Batting average 36.8
    Bowling average 23.5

    Ben Stokes
    Batting average 34.3
    Bowling average 33.0

    Stuart Broad
    Batting average 19.8
    Bowling average 28.8

    Get the feeling that the English cricket management pick their mates ?

    Maybe, and there are questions to raise about the selection, but is comparing averages like really that fair when Curran only has 3 tests to his name? I'd have gone with him based on his performances, but rolling out the numbers like that isn't compelling due to the limited data.
    On data Curran deserves to play and on performances he deserves to play.

    Add on future potential - England are clearly going to win the series - so why not let Curran show what he's capable of.

    What Curran doesn't have yet is either the 'big name' nor being 'one of the gang'.
    Which is why I said I'd have picked him. But the averages comparison is not determinative on that.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,191
    Penddu said:

    I was just reading a discussion in previous thread on LD chances in Wales. The interesting seat to watch is Brecon & Radnor - the sitting Tory MP Chris Davies is in some legal trouble which could result in a by-election. If this happens I expect to see Kirsty Williams AM stand and win. However I would then expect her to lose her Senedd seat to Conservatives...

    You expect to see Kirsty Williams give up a cabinet seat and the casting vote in the Sennedd for listening to Uncle Vince pontificating about, er, something else from the total obscurity of fourth party status?

    Somehow I can't quite see that myself, but then, I don't know her personally.

    What do you make of the open war breaking out in Plaid?
This discussion has been closed.