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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov finds big decline in those thinking that LAB will wi

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited October 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov finds big decline in those thinking that LAB will win a majority

Looking forward the poll repeated a question last asked in the immediate aftermath of the May local elections – “What do you think is the most LIKELY result of the next election?”

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    FPT.@Carlotta

    "The Guardian, possibly unwisely.....gets into Daily Mail offshore share holding:

    "The irony of Campbell using the row to accuse a newspaper editor of bullying has not been lost on many."

    http://www.theguardian.com/media/2013/oct/05/daily-mail-battle-labour-lord-rothermere?CMP=twt_gu"

    An excellent article on the Mail debacle. The best i've read. The paragraph you've used to introduce it is so misleading as to its content I can only think you've spent too much time watching how the mail do it!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2013
    The UKIP share is proving to be remarkably resilient, even when things appear to go wrong for them, such as the Godfrey Bloom incident at conference. It may not be as easy for Cameron to reduce them to 5% by May 2015 as he was expecting.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    FPT

    ST Poll is 26 pages as it polls the views of Mail readers as well.. Their VI is:

    Cons: 55; LAB: 19; LD: 5; UKIP: 20 (weighted sample size is 273)

    Would be interesting to see the same poll for other newspapers as well as those who do not read a paper but rely on BBC, ITV, C4, SKY etc news.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    @Roger - or Alastair Campbell!

    FPT:

    YouGov:

    Well/Badly (net)
    Cameron: -12 (+7)
    Miliband: -31 (-1)

    If you could choose, which prefer at next GE:
    Maj Con: 30 (+3)
    Con-LD: 9 (-3)
    Lab-LD: 12 (-2)
    Maj Lab: 31 (+1)

    Most likely result: (vs May)
    Maj Con: 15 (+2)
    Con-LD: 17 (+7)
    Lab-LD: 17 (-2)
    Maj Lab: 23 (-7)

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/r4r40d1fp0/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-041013.pdf

    For perspective, in the same poll a year ago

    Well/Badly (net)
    Cameron: -24 (+1)
    Miliband: -9 (+20)
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    In summary: Miliband doing well to get lefties on his side (again). After all, disheartened party supporters won't pound the streets for you.

    From the ST YouGov polling it appears Miliband is the only winner from the conference season, increasing his support (from a very low base) among lefties.

    Post-conference poll (today) compared with last pre-conf poll (15/09/13):
    Con 33(nc)
    Lab 38(nc)
    Ukip 13(+1)
    LD 11(+2)

    Other changes from 15/09/13 to 06/10/13:
    Govt app +1
    Cam NC
    Miliband +15
    Clegg +5

    Miliband with voting groups:
    Lab +55
    L10 +32
    LD10 +26

    But here's the current net well/badly among party supporters. Cameron still in banana republic territory:
    Cam +88
    Mili +41
    Clegg +48
  • AndyJS said:

    The UKIP share is proving to be remarkably resilient, even when things appear to go wrong for them, such as the Godfrey Bloom incident at conference. It may not be as easy for Cameron to reduce them to 5% by May 2015 as he was expecting.

    UKIP supporters seem to have very thick skins. If the Tories are really going to push them down to 5% or less by May 2015 they are going to have to come up with something substantive. I doubt that the modern generation of Tories have the necessary guts and gumption. They seemed to lose their killer instinct way back when Thatcher was pushed. They've gone soft in the heid.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Financier said:

    FPT

    ST Poll is 26 pages as it polls the views of Mail readers as well.. Their VI is:

    Cons: 55; LAB: 19; LD: 5; UKIP: 20 (weighted sample size is 273)

    Would be interesting to see the same poll for other newspapers as well as those who do not read a paper but rely on BBC, ITV, C4, SKY etc news.

    I take it from those figures that hardly anyone reads the Mail in places like Glasgow, Manchester and Liverpool.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    AndyJS said:

    The UKIP share is proving to be remarkably resilient, even when things appear to go wrong for them, such as the Godfrey Bloom incident at conference. It may not be as easy for Cameron to reduce them to 5% by May 2015 as he was expecting.

    I agree with that. UKIP is holding up remarkably well particularly in surveys straight after the CON conference.



  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Interesting fact: UKIP were already on at least 4% in 186 constituencies in 2010.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Daily Mail readers (diff vs OA)

    Well/Badly (net) -
    Cameron: +19 (+31)
    Miliband: -56 (-25)

    Govt managing Economy (net) well: +16 (+29)

    Best PM:
    Cameron: 54 (+20)
    Miliband: 11 (-14)

    Most like to see at next GE:
    Maj Con: 52 (+22)
    Con-LD: 7 (-2)
    Lab-LD: 6 (-6)
    Maj Lab: 17 (-14)
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    ST Poll

    Well/Badly:
    DC: -12(+7); EdM: -31(-1); NC: -45(+3); Coalition: -25(+2)

    If at the next election there is another hung
    Parliament and both Labour and the
    Conservatives only have enough seats to form a
    government with the support of the Liberal
    Democrats, which would you rather see?

    LAB/LD: 42(0)
    CON/LD: 40(+4)
    DK: 19(-4)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    UKIP's local election performance, whilst not quite at May levels, is also not too shabby.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    AndyJS said:

    Financier said:

    FPT

    ST Poll is 26 pages as it polls the views of Mail readers as well.. Their VI is:

    Cons: 55; LAB: 19; LD: 5; UKIP: 20 (weighted sample size is 273)

    Would be interesting to see the same poll for other newspapers as well as those who do not read a paper but rely on BBC, ITV, C4, SKY etc news.

    I take it from those figures that hardly anyone reads the Mail in places like Glasgow, Manchester and Liverpool.
    That detail is not given, but readers of Scottish Mail are included.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    @Carlotta

    "Most likely to see after the next election"

    Rather shows the weakness in the theory of 'the wisdom of the crowd'. it has to be an objective crowd (not something to be found from among Mail readers)

    Most like to see at next GE:
    Maj Con: 52 (+22)
    Con-LD: 7 (-2)
    Lab-LD: 6 (-6)
    Maj Lab: 17 (-14)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Incredible to note that UKIP were still registering plenty of 2-3%s in the polls at the start of last year.

    For example:

    UKIP share:

    ICM - 22nd Jan 2012: 2%
    Populus - 22nd Jan 2012: 2%
    ComRes - 29th Jan 2012: 2%
    ComRes - 26th Feb 2012: 2%
    Ipsos/MORI - 27th Feb 2012: 2%

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Roger said:

    @Carlotta

    "Most likely to see after the next election"

    Rather shows the weakness in the theory of 'the wisdom of the crowd'. it has to be an objective crowd (not something to be found from among Mail readers)

    Most like to see at next GE:
    Maj Con: 52 (+22)
    Con-LD: 7 (-2)
    Lab-LD: 6 (-6)
    Maj Lab: 17 (-14)

    Why are Mail readers less objective than Guardian, Times, Telegraph, Sun, Indy etc readers?
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,650
    The right-wing rags are becoming unworthy of a read.

    The Telegraph front page is about one Conservative MP complaining about the BBC coverage being biased.A blatant attempt to cow the BBC down.It is usually the job of the Mail but now that it is alleged that the Mail is anti-BBC,the Telegraph takes up the mantle of harassing the BBC.

    What do they want?That the BBC should not give air-time to the leader of the opposition when there is a major feud between him and a premier publication?Absolute nonsense.
  • By shifting Labour into militant looney leftdom Ed M has played a blunder. Mandelson's project has finally come to grief.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    By shifting Labour into militant looney leftdom Ed M has played a blunder. Mandelson's project has finally come to grief.

    Apart from the fact Labour is less radical than it was in 97.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    @Roger - you misread - it what Mail readers would most LIKE to see at the next GE.

    What they think is most likeLY:

    Maj Con: 22 (+7)
    Con-LD: 20 (+3)
    Lab-LD: 6 (-6)
    Maj Lab: 17 (-14)

    I'm not sure Mirror or Guardian readers would be any less wishful for their preferred party.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    @Roger

    To enable us to understand your thought process, which newspapers do your friends/colleagues/acquaintances read? I find that mine read an eclectic mix ranging from the Sun/Star/Mirror though the mid market press to the Times and FT.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2013
    20 months ago, the Guardian/ICM poll had the Tories on 40% and UKIP on 2%.

    It's almost frightening how things can change so quickly.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    SMukesh said:

    The right-wing rags are becoming unworthy of a read.

    The Telegraph front page is about one Conservative MP complaining about the BBC coverage being biased.A blatant attempt to cow the BBC down.It is usually the job of the Mail but now that it is alleged that the Mail is anti-BBC,the Telegraph takes up the mantle of harassing the BBC.

    What do they want?That the BBC should not give air-time to the leader of the opposition when there is a major feud between him and a premier publication?Absolute nonsense.

    So why are the left-wing rags worthy of a read?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Financier said:

    @Roger

    To enable us to understand your thought process, which newspapers do your friends/colleagues/acquaintances read? I find that mine read an eclectic mix ranging from the Sun/Star/Mirror though the mid market press to the Times and FT.

    It's interesting that the press is still viewed tough the lens of the class system, whereas they are increasingly the same product, especially on the web.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Terrrrrrible backlash against Tory 'work or lose benefits....'

    Net support:
    >2yr Unemployed, work or lose benefit: +47
    Stop benefits for <25 Neets: +13

    But a more mixed message on 'Help to Buy':
    Net support: +3
    Make it easier for ordinary people to buy home: +15
    Make house prices rise: +58
    Help Economy recover: -22
    Risk housing bubble: +41
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Anecdote alert. Help to buy is very popular with some of my colleagues. Some issues with small print, but otherwise addressing a personal need directly. A potent policy.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    SMukesh said:

    The right-wing rags are becoming unworthy of a read.

    I'm not sure today's the day to be making that point, when the Observer is leading with the views of a Headmaster on the Daily Mail.

    Said headmaster also writes for the Daily Mail......

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited October 2013
    Curious group to turn against in the battle to rubbish Free Schools. Desperate?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24417085
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,541
    SMukesh said:

    The right-wing rags are becoming unworthy of a read.

    The Telegraph front page is about one Conservative MP complaining about the BBC coverage being biased.A blatant attempt to cow the BBC down.It is usually the job of the Mail but now that it is alleged that the Mail is anti-BBC,the Telegraph takes up the mantle of harassing the BBC.

    What do they want?That the BBC should not give air-time to the leader of the opposition when there is a major feud between him and a premier publication?Absolute nonsense.

    Major feud? You think that it deserves to be a major feud? My God, what will you call it when something goes seriously wrong? Armageddon?

    However, I am minded to agree with you that the Telegraph story has holes. There was not much that the Conservatives or Lib Dems could say about this, besides what was already said (very well) by Clegg and Cameron.

    But the story did not deserve the prominence it got. This has probably got less to do with a pro-Labour bias within the BBC, but more with an anti-Mail bias.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    What, exactly, is Adam Afriyie up to?

    "Adam Afriyie pushes for vote on EU referendum before the election
    Backbencher undermines David Cameron's proposed timetable, suggesting the public does not believe Tories will stick to it.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/oct/06/adam-afriyie-eu-vote-referendum-before-election?CMP=twt_fd

    The bill's sponsor more or less accuses him of wrecking:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2013/10/james-wharton-mp-why-adam-afriyie-is-wrong-my-referendum-bill-must-not-be-amended.html
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    What, exactly, is Adam Afriyie up to?

    "Adam Afriyie pushes for vote on EU referendum before the election
    Backbencher undermines David Cameron's proposed timetable, suggesting the public does not believe Tories will stick to it.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/oct/06/adam-afriyie-eu-vote-referendum-before-election?CMP=twt_fd

    The bill's sponsor more or less accuses him of wrecking:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2013/10/james-wharton-mp-why-adam-afriyie-is-wrong-my-referendum-bill-must-not-be-amended.html

    He comes across as bored being a backbench MP. Wants to lead something. Only option he has is to lead a rebellion.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Jonathan said:

    What, exactly, is Adam Afriyie up to?

    "Adam Afriyie pushes for vote on EU referendum before the election
    Backbencher undermines David Cameron's proposed timetable, suggesting the public does not believe Tories will stick to it.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/oct/06/adam-afriyie-eu-vote-referendum-before-election?CMP=twt_fd

    The bill's sponsor more or less accuses him of wrecking:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2013/10/james-wharton-mp-why-adam-afriyie-is-wrong-my-referendum-bill-must-not-be-amended.html

    He comes across as bored being a backbench MP. Wants to lead something. Only option he has is to lead a rebellion.
    Yes, reading his Mail article, it feels much more about Adam [LOOK A MEEEE!] Afriyie than anything else.....

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2446209/How-Im-going-force-PM-hold-referendum-Europe-NOW-An-incendiary-intervention-Euro-vote-leading-Cameron-rebel-Adam-Afriyie.html

    The Mail are hedging their bets describing him as 'millionaire' Adam Afriyie......
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Quite.

    I'm very disappointed in him - he had great potential and has made a total narcissistic pillock of himself.
    Jonathan said:

    What, exactly, is Adam Afriyie up to?

    "Adam Afriyie pushes for vote on EU referendum before the election
    Backbencher undermines David Cameron's proposed timetable, suggesting the public does not believe Tories will stick to it.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/oct/06/adam-afriyie-eu-vote-referendum-before-election?CMP=twt_fd

    The bill's sponsor more or less accuses him of wrecking:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2013/10/james-wharton-mp-why-adam-afriyie-is-wrong-my-referendum-bill-must-not-be-amended.html

    He comes across as bored being a backbench MP. Wants to lead something. Only option he has is to lead a rebellion.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349

    I'd be interested to know if there's been any scientific polling on the credence given to newspaper reports. From my own anecdotal evidence, when you ask people if they really believe some of the stories in the press, they all seem very cynical. But they tend to believe stories they want to be true, despite the cynicism. It's a sort of wishful reinforcement of their own views.

    That may all pander to prejudice but there's a "it's my prejudice" sort of attitude.

    If a Labour supporter reads a story about Tories eating babies, he'll want to believe it despite all the holes in it (and vice versa).

    Put on the spot, a Tory Mail reader may well think the Mail went too far (and most do) but wouldn't it be nice if Ralph had been plotting British genocide in his posh pad.

  • SMukesh said:

    The right-wing rags are becoming unworthy of a read.

    The Telegraph front page is about one Conservative MP complaining about the BBC coverage being biased.A blatant attempt to cow the BBC down.It is usually the job of the Mail but now that it is alleged that the Mail is anti-BBC,the Telegraph takes up the mantle of harassing the BBC.

    What do they want?That the BBC should not give air-time to the leader of the opposition when there is a major feud between him and a premier publication?Absolute nonsense.

    Major feud? You think that it deserves to be a major feud? My God, what will you call it when something goes seriously wrong? Armageddon?

    However, I am minded to agree with you that the Telegraph story has holes. There was not much that the Conservatives or Lib Dems could say about this, besides what was already said (very well) by Clegg and Cameron.

    But the story did not deserve the prominence it got. This has probably got less to do with a pro-Labour bias within the BBC, but more with an anti-Mail bias.

    The story got prominent and extensive coverage on Sky and ITN too. The newsrooms of all the news broadcasters made pretty much the same call on its importance, although the BBC did not lead with it when the story broke and the other too did.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    "AN INDEPENDENT Scotland could not expect to automatically inherit the country’s ­historic regiments nor the servicemen and women who serve in them, Defence Secretary Philip Hammond will ­insist this week."

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/scottish-independence-warning-over-scots-regiments-1-3128366

    Remind me, which country do the Irish Guards serve?
  • CD13 said:


    I'd be interested to know if there's been any scientific polling on the credence given to newspaper reports. From my own anecdotal evidence, when you ask people if they really believe some of the stories in the press, they all seem very cynical. But they tend to believe stories they want to be true, despite the cynicism. It's a sort of wishful reinforcement of their own views.

    That may all pander to prejudice but there's a "it's my prejudice" sort of attitude.

    If a Labour supporter reads a story about Tories eating babies, he'll want to believe it despite all the holes in it (and vice versa).

    Put on the spot, a Tory Mail reader may well think the Mail went too far (and most do) but wouldn't it be nice if Ralph had been plotting British genocide in his posh pad.

    You only have to compare views on welfare with the reality to see most people believe what the papers tell them.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,541

    SMukesh said:

    The right-wing rags are becoming unworthy of a read.

    The Telegraph front page is about one Conservative MP complaining about the BBC coverage being biased.A blatant attempt to cow the BBC down.It is usually the job of the Mail but now that it is alleged that the Mail is anti-BBC,the Telegraph takes up the mantle of harassing the BBC.

    What do they want?That the BBC should not give air-time to the leader of the opposition when there is a major feud between him and a premier publication?Absolute nonsense.

    Major feud? You think that it deserves to be a major feud? My God, what will you call it when something goes seriously wrong? Armageddon?

    However, I am minded to agree with you that the Telegraph story has holes. There was not much that the Conservatives or Lib Dems could say about this, besides what was already said (very well) by Clegg and Cameron.

    But the story did not deserve the prominence it got. This has probably got less to do with a pro-Labour bias within the BBC, but more with an anti-Mail bias.

    The story got prominent and extensive coverage on Sky and ITN too. The newsrooms of all the news broadcasters made pretty much the same call on its importance, although the BBC did not lead with it when the story broke and the other too did.

    I watched Sky and Channel 4 as well, and the story did not get the same degree of prominence in my eyes. However, it is easy to see why Sky might want to bash a non-NI newspaper. And Channel 4 were hardly going to lay off the Mail.

    These things are all perception. For one thing, it is very difficult for one person to watch all the output.

    O/t: absolute chaos in Korea, from the sounds of it ...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    tim said:

    Chart from YouGov on public reaction to Ed Miliband versus the Daily Mail

    Are we going to have another week of MiliMail?

    Prescott is going on about it in the Sunday Mirror:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/john-prescott-ed-miliband-daily-2342815

    Either Miliband forces an apology (unlikely, at best) or he'd be better letting it drop - and I'm not sure Campbell tweeting away like a demented 'disgusted of Tunbridge Wells'.....is helping....
  • SMukesh said:

    The right-wing rags are becoming unworthy of a read.

    The Telegraph front page is about one Conservative MP complaining about the BBC coverage being biased.A blatant attempt to cow the BBC down.It is usually the job of the Mail but now that it is alleged that the Mail is anti-BBC,the Telegraph takes up the mantle of harassing the BBC.

    What do they want?That the BBC should not give air-time to the leader of the opposition when there is a major feud between him and a premier publication?Absolute nonsense.

    Major feud? You think that it deserves to be a major feud? My God, what will you call it when something goes seriously wrong? Armageddon?

    However, I am minded to agree with you that the Telegraph story has holes. There was not much that the Conservatives or Lib Dems could say about this, besides what was already said (very well) by Clegg and Cameron.

    But the story did not deserve the prominence it got. This has probably got less to do with a pro-Labour bias within the BBC, but more with an anti-Mail bias.

    The story got prominent and extensive coverage on Sky and ITN too. The newsrooms of all the news broadcasters made pretty much the same call on its importance, although the BBC did not lead with it when the story broke and the other too did.

    I watched Sky and Channel 4 as well, and the story did not get the same degree of prominence in my eyes. However, it is easy to see why Sky might want to bash a non-NI newspaper. And Channel 4 were hardly going to lay off the Mail.

    These things are all perception. For one thing, it is very difficult for one person to watch all the output.

    O/t: absolute chaos in Korea, from the sounds of it ...

    Sky News has to adhere to impartiality rules; newspapers don't, but the Sun and Times both gave very limited coverage to the spat.

    The Telegraph story is hilarious, but it does send out a clear message that a section of the Conservative party wants to exercise control over BBC news output. It's all rather Stalinist.

  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,650
    Financier said:

    SMukesh said:

    The right-wing rags are becoming unworthy of a read.

    The Telegraph front page is about one Conservative MP complaining about the BBC coverage being biased.A blatant attempt to cow the BBC down.It is usually the job of the Mail but now that it is alleged that the Mail is anti-BBC,the Telegraph takes up the mantle of harassing the BBC.

    What do they want?That the BBC should not give air-time to the leader of the opposition when there is a major feud between him and a premier publication?Absolute nonsense.

    So why are the left-wing rags worthy of a read?
    They certainly are not the bullies that the right-wing rags are.

    The righties seem to be anti-everyone who doesnt agree with their point of view and spin like hell to the point that most reading them do so for entertainment rather than enlightenment.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
    When you see stories like this: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10357189/Green-energy-to-cost-consumers-400-over-next-five-years.html

    And this: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10358461/Carbon-tax-too-expensive-says-industry.html

    we begin to see what a mess we have got ourselves into with carbon taxes and subsidised green energy. I think there is a real opportunity here for the tories (the other parties are completely wedded to it) to break with the consensus. Osborne hinted at it at Conference when he said that it was not necessary for the UK to be in the vanguard in these areas.

    A tory policy that achieves cuts (or at least reduced increases) in energy bills by scaling back the subsidies quite aggressively would be very popular. I would not be surprised to see it be especially popular with UKIP supporters. It would also place an uncomfortable spotlight on the role the Ed played into getting us into this mess.

    It will be difficult to do much this side of the election given the Lib Dem approach but I would be surprised if this was not a major plank of the tory election campaign.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Dan Hodges: "Next week's Labour reshuffle has now boiled down to whether or not Ed Miliband sacks Andy Burnham."
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349

    SO,

    "You only have to compare views on welfare with the reality to see most people believe what the papers tell them."

    That might be the other way round - the news reflecting the public's views in this case. You meet ten people on benefits, nine are honest and really want jobs, but the one you remember is the one who is taking the piss.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,541



    Major feud? You think that it deserves to be a major feud? My God, what will you call it when something goes seriously wrong? Armageddon?

    However, I am minded to agree with you that the Telegraph story has holes. There was not much that the Conservatives or Lib Dems could say about this, besides what was already said (very well) by Clegg and Cameron.

    But the story did not deserve the prominence it got. This has probably got less to do with a pro-Labour bias within the BBC, but more with an anti-Mail bias.

    The story got prominent and extensive coverage on Sky and ITN too. The newsrooms of all the news broadcasters made pretty much the same call on its importance, although the BBC did not lead with it when the story broke and the other too did.

    I watched Sky and Channel 4 as well, and the story did not get the same degree of prominence in my eyes. However, it is easy to see why Sky might want to bash a non-NI newspaper. And Channel 4 were hardly going to lay off the Mail.

    These things are all perception. For one thing, it is very difficult for one person to watch all the output.

    O/t: absolute chaos in Korea, from the sounds of it ...

    Sky News has to adhere to impartiality rules; newspapers don't, but the Sun and Times both gave very limited coverage to the spat.

    The Telegraph story is hilarious, but it does send out a clear message that a section of the Conservative party wants to exercise control over BBC news output. It's all rather Stalinist.

    That's pretty hilarious coming from a Labour supporter during the Blair years. Those sordid governments were more concerned with trying to control the media than actually govern the country. Hence the whole BBC Hutton mess.

    I should repeat before one of the usual suspects pipes up, that I like the BBC. I don't mind paying the licence fee, which is blooming good value. That does not mean, as some leftists think, that the BBC is immune from criticism.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    "AN INDEPENDENT Scotland could not expect to automatically inherit the country’s ­historic regiments nor the servicemen and women who serve in them, Defence Secretary Philip Hammond will ­insist this week."

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/scottish-independence-warning-over-scots-regiments-1-3128366

    Remind me, which country do the Irish Guards serve?

    The answer is of course the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

    Should Scots vote for independence then the historic Scottish regiments should go with them.

  • SchardsSchards Posts: 210
    The more you think about the Burnham dummy spitting, the more you realise it's a lose lose, lose, lose scenario for Labour

    - if they don't sue having threatened, they look like they implicitly accept it's true
    - if they do sue they will be accused of being more interested in their reputation than they ever were in patients
    - Open goal for Hunt to say he's concentrating on patients rather than petty party politics
    - If the sue and win, as well as Labour's priorities looking questionable, all the horror stories in the background will be dredged up again
    - if they sue and lose, Labour's reputation on he NHS has gone forever

    Burnham should clearly be shuffled out as he is increasingly a liability and, at any other time surely would be. But this is a parliament with less shuffling on either side than I can ever remember and the more the tories call for him to go, the less likely it is as Ed doesn't want to seen to be pushed into it. So he'll stay and continue to do damage.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    The poll was taken immediately after the Tory conference , yet the Labour share is rock steady at 38% !


  • Major feud? You think that it deserves to be a major feud? My God, what will you call it when something goes seriously wrong? Armageddon?

    However, I am minded to agree with you that the Telegraph story has holes. There was not much that the Conservatives or Lib Dems could say about this, besides what was already said (very well) by Clegg and Cameron.

    But the story did not deserve the prominence it got. This has probably got less to do with a pro-Labour bias within the BBC, but more with an anti-Mail bias.

    The story got prominent and extensive coverage on Sky and ITN too. The newsrooms of all the news broadcasters made pretty much the same call on its importance, although the BBC did not lead with it when the story broke and the other too did.

    I watched Sky and Channel 4 as well, and the story did not get the same degree of prominence in my eyes. However, it is easy to see why Sky might want to bash a non-NI newspaper. And Channel 4 were hardly going to lay off the Mail.

    These things are all perception. For one thing, it is very difficult for one person to watch all the output.

    O/t: absolute chaos in Korea, from the sounds of it ...

    Sky News has to adhere to impartiality rules; newspapers don't, but the Sun and Times both gave very limited coverage to the spat.

    The Telegraph story is hilarious, but it does send out a clear message that a section of the Conservative party wants to exercise control over BBC news output. It's all rather Stalinist.

    That's pretty hilarious coming from a Labour supporter during the Blair years. Those sordid governments were more concerned with trying to control the media than actually govern the country. Hence the whole BBC Hutton mess.

    I should repeat before one of the usual suspects pipes up, that I like the BBC. I don't mind paying the licence fee, which is blooming good value. That does not mean, as some leftists think, that the BBC is immune from criticism.

    Those Tory MPs are clearly trying to shackle the BBC. That Labour tried to do it over Iraq does not make it any less Stalinist. It merely shows both sides want the BBC to be more helpful to them.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    JackW said:

    "AN INDEPENDENT Scotland could not expect to automatically inherit the country’s ­historic regiments nor the servicemen and women who serve in them, Defence Secretary Philip Hammond will ­insist this week."

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/scottish-independence-warning-over-scots-regiments-1-3128366

    Remind me, which country do the Irish Guards serve?

    The answer is of course the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

    Should Scots vote for independence then the historic Scottish regiments should go with them.

    Whatever Hammond says, the practicalities will ensure that they will become Scottish sooner or later. After all, where are the regimental headquarters based ?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,541



    The story got prominent and extensive coverage on Sky and ITN too. The newsrooms of all the news broadcasters made pretty much the same call on its importance, although the BBC did not lead with it when the story broke and the other too did.

    I watched Sky and Channel 4 as well, and the story did not get the same degree of prominence in my eyes. However, it is easy to see why Sky might want to bash a non-NI newspaper. And Channel 4 were hardly going to lay off the Mail.

    These things are all perception. For one thing, it is very difficult for one person to watch all the output.

    O/t: absolute chaos in Korea, from the sounds of it ...

    Sky News has to adhere to impartiality rules; newspapers don't, but the Sun and Times both gave very limited coverage to the spat.

    The Telegraph story is hilarious, but it does send out a clear message that a section of the Conservative party wants to exercise control over BBC news output. It's all rather Stalinist.

    That's pretty hilarious coming from a Labour supporter during the Blair years. Those sordid governments were more concerned with trying to control the media than actually govern the country. Hence the whole BBC Hutton mess.

    I should repeat before one of the usual suspects pipes up, that I like the BBC. I don't mind paying the licence fee, which is blooming good value. That does not mean, as some leftists think, that the BBC is immune from criticism.

    Those Tory MPs are clearly trying to shackle the BBC. That Labour tried to do it over Iraq does not make it any less Stalinist. It merely shows both sides want the BBC to be more helpful to them.
    'Shackle the BBC'. Really?

    Are you saying that the Miliband story merited the prominence it got on the BBC and other outlets?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Dan Hodges: "Next week's Labour reshuffle has now boiled down to whether or not Ed Miliband sacks Andy Burnham."

    He will probably moved sideways.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    chortle

    so far we've "PB Tories" demonised as Stalinists and Marxists. I think our Lefties have been reading too much Daily Mail recently.
  • tim said:

    The fact that a poll finding like this

    @MSmithsonPB: 71% of Mail readers in YouGov sample say EdM right to complain. 19% say he wasn't

    Can morph into a whine about the BBC goes a long way to explaining why the PB Tories never ever learn from any of the recurrent misreadings they make.

    They are like Marxists who believe in this case that Mail readers are suffering from false consciousness

    It always goes the same way. A story breaks. The usual suspects predict it will be a disaster for Ed Miliband. It isn't. They blame the BBC.



  • The story got prominent and extensive coverage on Sky and ITN too. The newsrooms of all the news broadcasters made pretty much the same call on its importance, although the BBC did not lead with it when the story broke and the other too did.

    I watched Sky and Channel 4 as well, and the story did not get the same degree of prominence in my eyes. However, it is easy to see why Sky might want to bash a non-NI newspaper. And Channel 4 were hardly going to lay off the Mail.

    These things are all perception. For one thing, it is very difficult for one person to watch all the output.

    O/t: absolute chaos in Korea, from the sounds of it ...

    Sky News has to adhere to impartiality rules; newspapers don't, but the Sun and Times both gave very limited coverage to the spat.

    The Telegraph story is hilarious, but it does send out a clear message that a section of the Conservative party wants to exercise control over BBC news output. It's all rather Stalinist.

    That's pretty hilarious coming from a Labour supporter during the Blair years. Those sordid governments were more concerned with trying to control the media than actually govern the country. Hence the whole BBC Hutton mess.

    I should repeat before one of the usual suspects pipes up, that I like the BBC. I don't mind paying the licence fee, which is blooming good value. That does not mean, as some leftists think, that the BBC is immune from criticism.

    Those Tory MPs are clearly trying to shackle the BBC. That Labour tried to do it over Iraq does not make it any less Stalinist. It merely shows both sides want the BBC to be more helpful to them.
    'Shackle the BBC'. Really?

    Are you saying that the Miliband story merited the prominence it got on the BBC and other outlets?

    I am saying all broadcast news outlets made the same editorial call. When that happens it is absurd to accuse just one of them of bias.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    SeanT said:

    tim said:

    The fact that a poll finding like this

    @MSmithsonPB: 71% of Mail readers in YouGov sample say EdM right to complain. 19% say he wasn't

    Can morph into a whine about the BBC goes a long way to explaining why the PB Tories never ever learn from any of the recurrent misreadings they make.

    They are like Marxists who believe in this case that Mail readers are suffering from false consciousness

    It always goes the same way. A story breaks. The usual suspects predict it will be a disaster for Ed Miliband. It isn't. They blame the BBC.

    It's always goes the same way. A story breaks. The usual suspects proclaim that Ed has played a blinder. They predict the public will now agree. The public doesn't really care. Ed remains crap.

    And repeat.
    Bloody hell ! The first time I read this since the Syria vote .

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Politicians aren't very aware. After three weeks of continuous conference coverage, unless they have something pretty amazing to say, a shrewd politician would keep out of the media.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,541
    surbiton said:

    JackW said:

    "AN INDEPENDENT Scotland could not expect to automatically inherit the country’s ­historic regiments nor the servicemen and women who serve in them, Defence Secretary Philip Hammond will ­insist this week."

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/scottish-independence-warning-over-scots-regiments-1-3128366

    Remind me, which country do the Irish Guards serve?

    The answer is of course the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

    Should Scots vote for independence then the historic Scottish regiments should go with them.

    Whatever Hammond says, the practicalities will ensure that they will become Scottish sooner or later. After all, where are the regimental headquarters based ?
    I assume that for army units, it will be the equivalent Scottish Division / Royal Regiment:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Division
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Regiment_of_Scotland

    All of whom are HQ'd in either Scotland, Germany, or in one case, Canterbury (which will move to Scotland after an FI deployment). It would make sense for these to be ceded to Scotland post-independence, especially as their recruitment areas are in Scotland, and the historical links.

    It is possible that there are more regiments based in Scotland than Scotland will need post-independence. Since the SNP's military policy seems rather nebulous, who knows?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    surbiton said:

    JackW said:

    "AN INDEPENDENT Scotland could not expect to automatically inherit the country’s ­historic regiments nor the servicemen and women who serve in them, Defence Secretary Philip Hammond will ­insist this week."

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/scottish-independence-warning-over-scots-regiments-1-3128366

    Remind me, which country do the Irish Guards serve?

    The answer is of course the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

    Should Scots vote for independence then the historic Scottish regiments should go with them.

    Whatever Hammond says, the practicalities will ensure that they will become Scottish sooner or later. After all, where are the regimental headquarters based ?
    Indeed so.

    Although it should be noted that geographical designations and regiment hq's do not always correlate.

    The example of the Republic of Ireland be noted as all of the historic Irish regiments within the Republic left the orbit of the British army.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    @tim

    Mail readers on Miliband:

    Miliband's politics similar to his fathers: (vs OA)
    Yes: 31 (+16)
    No: 41 (-9)

    Given Mail's claims & Miliband's response do you think about Miliband
    More positively: 15 (-11)
    More negatively: 7 (-2)
    No diff - already +ve: 10 (-6)
    No diff - already -ve: 59 (-17)

    Not sure Dacre will lose any sleep when nearly a third of his readers view Ed as a Marxist....
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,541


    I watched Sky and Channel 4 as well, and the story did not get the same degree of prominence in my eyes. However, it is easy to see why Sky might want to bash a non-NI newspaper. And Channel 4 were hardly going to lay off the Mail.

    These things are all perception. For one thing, it is very difficult for one person to watch all the output.

    O/t: absolute chaos in Korea, from the sounds of it ...

    Sky News has to adhere to impartiality rules; newspapers don't, but the Sun and Times both gave very limited coverage to the spat.

    The Telegraph story is hilarious, but it does send out a clear message that a section of the Conservative party wants to exercise control over BBC news output. It's all rather Stalinist.

    That's pretty hilarious coming from a Labour supporter during the Blair years. Those sordid governments were more concerned with trying to control the media than actually govern the country. Hence the whole BBC Hutton mess.

    I should repeat before one of the usual suspects pipes up, that I like the BBC. I don't mind paying the licence fee, which is blooming good value. That does not mean, as some leftists think, that the BBC is immune from criticism.

    Those Tory MPs are clearly trying to shackle the BBC. That Labour tried to do it over Iraq does not make it any less Stalinist. It merely shows both sides want the BBC to be more helpful to them.
    'Shackle the BBC'. Really?

    Are you saying that the Miliband story merited the prominence it got on the BBC and other outlets?

    I am saying all broadcast news outlets made the same editorial call. When that happens it is absurd to accuse just one of them of bias.

    "made the same editorial call"

    Proof, please. As Tim would say, let's have proof not anecdote, that Sky and Channel 4 treated the story with the same prominence as the BBC.
  • SeanT said:

    tim said:

    The fact that a poll finding like this

    @MSmithsonPB: 71% of Mail readers in YouGov sample say EdM right to complain. 19% say he wasn't

    Can morph into a whine about the BBC goes a long way to explaining why the PB Tories never ever learn from any of the recurrent misreadings they make.

    They are like Marxists who believe in this case that Mail readers are suffering from false consciousness

    It always goes the same way. A story breaks. The usual suspects predict it will be a disaster for Ed Miliband. It isn't. They blame the BBC.

    It's always goes the same way. A story breaks. The usual suspects proclaim that Ed has played a blinder. They predict the public will now agree. The public doesn't really care. Ed remains crap.

    And repeat.

    Except that didn't happen. But you only have to go back to threads earlier in the week to see certain posters talking excitedly about Ed's folly in attacking the Mail, about deep holes being dug and so on.

    If the polls are correct what seems to have happened is what some of us thought might - Ed has seen his ratings improve among Labour-leaners; ie, the people whose votes he needs to get to win in 2015. It has passed everyone else by,

    I also remember some, pre-conference season, speculating about possible one-off Tory leads in YGs in the immediate aftermath of the Tory conference. That hasn't happened either.


  • I watched Sky and Channel 4 as well, and the story did not get the same degree of prominence in my eyes. However, it is easy to see why Sky might want to bash a non-NI newspaper. And Channel 4 were hardly going to lay off the Mail.

    These things are all perception. For one thing, it is very difficult for one person to watch all the output.

    O/t: absolute chaos in Korea, from the sounds of it ...

    Sky News has to adhere to impartiality rules; newspapers don't, but the Sun and Times both gave very limited coverage to the spat.

    The Telegraph story is hilarious, but it does send out a clear message that a section of the Conservative party wants to exercise control over BBC news output. It's all rather Stalinist.

    That's pretty hilarious coming from a Labour supporter during the Blair years. Those sordid governments were more concerned with trying to control the media than actually govern the country. Hence the whole BBC Hutton mess.

    I should repeat before one of the usual suspects pipes up, that I like the BBC. I don't mind paying the licence fee, which is blooming good value. That does not mean, as some leftists think, that the BBC is immune from criticism.

    Those Tory MPs are clearly trying to shackle the BBC. That Labour tried to do it over Iraq does not make it any less Stalinist. It merely shows both sides want the BBC to be more helpful to them.
    'Shackle the BBC'. Really?

    Are you saying that the Miliband story merited the prominence it got on the BBC and other outlets?

    I am saying all broadcast news outlets made the same editorial call. When that happens it is absurd to accuse just one of them of bias.

    "made the same editorial call"

    Proof, please. As Tim would say, let's have proof not anecdote, that Sky and Channel 4 treated the story with the same prominence as the BBC.

    I am giving an opinion. But let's be silly: you prove they didn't.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    SeanT said:

    tim said:

    The fact that a poll finding like this

    @MSmithsonPB: 71% of Mail readers in YouGov sample say EdM right to complain. 19% say he wasn't

    Can morph into a whine about the BBC goes a long way to explaining why the PB Tories never ever learn from any of the recurrent misreadings they make.

    They are like Marxists who believe in this case that Mail readers are suffering from false consciousness

    It always goes the same way. A story breaks. The usual suspects predict it will be a disaster for Ed Miliband. It isn't. They blame the BBC.

    It's always goes the same way. A story breaks. The usual suspects proclaim that Ed has played a blinder. They predict the public will now agree. The public doesn't really care. Ed remains crap.

    And repeat.

    Except that didn't happen. But you only have to go back to threads earlier in the week to see certain posters talking excitedly about Ed's folly in attacking the Mail, about deep holes being dug and so on.

    If the polls are correct what seems to have happened is what some of us thought might - Ed has seen his ratings improve among Labour-leaners; ie, the people whose votes he needs to get to win in 2015. It has passed everyone else by,

    I also remember some, pre-conference season, speculating about possible one-off Tory leads in YGs in the immediate aftermath of the Tory conference. That hasn't happened either.

    And yet only yesterday you were agreeing that mailgate would change nothing. ho hum.
  • SeanT said:

    tim said:

    The fact that a poll finding like this

    @MSmithsonPB: 71% of Mail readers in YouGov sample say EdM right to complain. 19% say he wasn't

    Can morph into a whine about the BBC goes a long way to explaining why the PB Tories never ever learn from any of the recurrent misreadings they make.

    They are like Marxists who believe in this case that Mail readers are suffering from false consciousness

    It always goes the same way. A story breaks. The usual suspects predict it will be a disaster for Ed Miliband. It isn't. They blame the BBC.

    It's always goes the same way. A story breaks. The usual suspects proclaim that Ed has played a blinder. They predict the public will now agree. The public doesn't really care. Ed remains crap.

    And repeat.

    Except that didn't happen. But you only have to go back to threads earlier in the week to see certain posters talking excitedly about Ed's folly in attacking the Mail, about deep holes being dug and so on.

    If the polls are correct what seems to have happened is what some of us thought might - Ed has seen his ratings improve among Labour-leaners; ie, the people whose votes he needs to get to win in 2015. It has passed everyone else by,

    I also remember some, pre-conference season, speculating about possible one-off Tory leads in YGs in the immediate aftermath of the Tory conference. That hasn't happened either.

    And yet only yesterday you were agreeing that mailgate would change nothing. ho hum.

    It won't. But it may reinforce the status quo. And given that is a Labour lead, that could be significant. We'll see; though I suspect SeanT is right and Ed's essential crapness will see him drift down again.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    @tim

    Mail readers on Miliband:

    Miliband's politics similar to his fathers: (vs OA)
    Yes: 31 (+16)
    No: 41 (-9)

    Given Mail's claims & Miliband's response do you think about Miliband
    More positively: 15 (-11)
    More negatively: 7 (-2)
    No diff - already +ve: 10 (-6)
    No diff - already -ve: 59 (-17)

    Not sure Dacre will lose any sleep when nearly a third of his readers view Ed as a Marxist....

    More positively: 15 (-11)
    More negatively: 7 (+2)
    No diff - already +ve: 10 (-6)
    No diff - already -ve: 59 (+17)
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    SMukesh said:

    SeanT said:

    SMukesh said:



    Financier said:

    SMukesh said:

    The right-wing rags are becoming unworthy of a read.

    The Telegraph front page is about one Conservative MP complaining about the BBC coverage being biased.A blatant attempt to cow the BBC down.It is usually the job of the Mail but now that it is alleged that the Mail is anti-BBC,the Telegraph takes up the mantle of harassing the BBC.

    What do they want?That the BBC should not give air-time to the leader of the opposition when there is a major feud between him and a premier publication?Absolute nonsense.

    So why are the left-wing rags worthy of a read?
    They certainly are not the bullies that the right-wing rags are.

    The righties seem to be anti-everyone who doesnt agree with their point of view and spin like hell to the point that most reading them do so for entertainment rather than enlightenment.
    Left wing rags not bullies? Would that include the Guardian, which campaigned for a boycott, so as to close down the News of the World, on the back of a lie invented by... The Guardian?
    You are the only person who defends NOTW who have allegedly engaged in illegal activity.

    Any surprise since that`s where you earn your bread.
    Oh well if we're talking illegal activity then not one daily national should be open.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    Haven't listened to/watch the F1 (will watch the highlights) but from what I've gathered it sounds like a fairly interesting race.

    Post-race analysis will be after the highlights.
  • SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    tim said:

    The fact that a poll finding like this

    @MSmithsonPB: 71% of Mail readers in YouGov sample say EdM right to complain. 19% say he wasn't

    Can morph into a whine about the BBC goes a long way to explaining why the PB Tories never ever learn from any of the recurrent misreadings they make.

    They are like Marxists who believe in this case that Mail readers are suffering from false consciousness

    It always goes the same way. A story breaks. The usual suspects predict it will be a disaster for Ed Miliband. It isn't. They blame the BBC.

    It's always goes the same way. A story breaks. The usual suspects proclaim that Ed has played a blinder. They predict the public will now agree. The public doesn't really care. Ed remains crap.

    And repeat.

    Except that didn't happen. But you only have to go back to threads earlier in the week to see certain posters talking excitedly about Ed's folly in attacking the Mail, about deep holes being dug and so on.

    If the polls are correct what seems to have happened is what some of us thought might - Ed has seen his ratings improve among Labour-leaners; ie, the people whose votes he needs to get to win in 2015. It has passed everyone else by,

    I also remember some, pre-conference season, speculating about possible one-off Tory leads in YGs in the immediate aftermath of the Tory conference. That hasn't happened either.

    Duh. Ed often enjoys these little spurts when people like you - previously skeptical - say Oh good for him, I didn't like him before but he is quite impressive. Six months later you're back to reviling him again.

    Exactly the same happened after the Murdocalypse.

    You're probably correct. Ed is still no leader. But at a minimum he has probably bought himself some respite and forced the Tories to rethink their attack lines. It's been a decent couple of weeks for him.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    edited October 2013
    On Afriye: he's a twonk after media attention. I'm all for a referendum, but he doesn't really think he'll achieve one. He's just shit-stirring to make himself look good to with those without any bloody sense.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    SeanT said:

    tim said:

    The fact that a poll finding like this

    @MSmithsonPB: 71% of Mail readers in YouGov sample say EdM right to complain. 19% say he wasn't

    Can morph into a whine about the BBC goes a long way to explaining why the PB Tories never ever learn from any of the recurrent misreadings they make.

    They are like Marxists who believe in this case that Mail readers are suffering from false consciousness

    It always goes the same way. A story breaks. The usual suspects predict it will be a disaster for Ed Miliband. It isn't. They blame the BBC.

    It's always goes the same way. A story breaks. The usual suspects proclaim that Ed has played a blinder. They predict the public will now agree. The public doesn't really care. Ed remains crap.

    And repeat.

    Except that didn't happen. But you only have to go back to threads earlier in the week to see certain posters talking excitedly about Ed's folly in attacking the Mail, about deep holes being dug and so on.

    If the polls are correct what seems to have happened is what some of us thought might - Ed has seen his ratings improve among Labour-leaners; ie, the people whose votes he needs to get to win in 2015. It has passed everyone else by,

    I also remember some, pre-conference season, speculating about possible one-off Tory leads in YGs in the immediate aftermath of the Tory conference. That hasn't happened either.

    And yet only yesterday you were agreeing that mailgate would change nothing. ho hum.

    It won't. But it may reinforce the status quo. And given that is a Labour lead, that could be significant. We'll see; though I suspect SeanT is right and Ed's essential crapness will see him drift down again.

    And the status quo is Ed is crap, and now possibly stupid. If he's picked a needless fight to prove he's a tough guy to his core supporters, that suggests his core supporters see him as weak and flailing. And while I agree with your argument that the Mail was always going to have a go at him, the nature of what he has done will add a degree of vengefulness that was not previously there imo. So stupid as he hasn't thought it through.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,541
    edited October 2013
    tim said:



    Sky News has to adhere to impartiality rules; newspapers don't, but the Sun and Times both gave very limited coverage to the spat.

    .

    That's pretty hilarious coming from a Labour supporter during the Blair years. Those sordid

    Those Tory MPs are clearly trying to shackle the BBC. That Labour tried to do it over Iraq does not make it any less Stalinist. It merely shows both sides want the BBC to be more helpful to them.
    'Shackle the BBC'. Really?

    Are you saying that the Miliband story merited the prominence it got on the BBC and other outlets?

    I am saying all broadcast news outlets made the same editorial call. When that happens it is absurd to accuse just one of them of bias.

    "made the same editorial call"

    Proof, please. As Tim would say, let's have proof not anecdote, that Sky and Channel 4 treated the story with the same prominence as the BBC.
    Sky News were the first to run the story at the top of their bulletins and ran it all week

    Tom Boadle ‏@TomBoadle 4 Oct
    Live from 1pm: @adamboultonSKY discusses Mail vs Miliband with @jwhittingdalemp, @neilwallis1 and @Markfergusonuk... #boultonandco

    Adam Boulton ‏@adamboultonSKY 3 Oct
    #boultonandco Payday Loans; Miliband v The Mail; Child Protection; Qatar World Cup; The Lotto. Pls join @skynewssarah and me from 1pm

    But no matter what is said nothing can change the behaviour of the PB Tories, their determination to blame the BBC and never learn is legendary and immovable

    These are fast learners in comparison

    (snip)
    Your are tiring, Tim. Why don't you just drop the constant name-calling? It's almost as if you realise your argument is weak. Since you do it all the time, we can only surmise your argument is constantly weak.

    The above is evidence, not proof. Especially as the tweets are days after the story broke. No-one is claiming that other media organisations did not cover the story.

    And now you're posting videos. Oh dear.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    On Afriye: he's a twonk after media attention. I'm all for a referendum, but he doesn't really think he'll achieve one. He's just shit-stirring to make himself look good to with those without any bloody sense.

    to make himself look good to with those without any bloody sense.

    a mass movement with one member.
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    edited October 2013
    Do people understand the difference between a Regiment and a Battalion? Obviously not...!

    The Royal Regiment of Fiji Scotland* will be part of the SDF Orbat: The First Battalion Scots Guards will, most likely, not. [Bourbon France had their own, dontchya know.] Apart from the latter the [battalion] formations are to be undermanned and will no longer remain at full fighting-strength.**

    What little we know about the furtive SDF is that they will comprise of two BattleGroups (based around the RRS and RSDG). Whether these will be manned by Scots, Fijians or Punjabis we will wait and see....

    * Hat-tip T.D.. :)
    ** Structural changes up-and-until 2015.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    On Afriye: he's a twonk after media attention. I'm all for a referendum, but he doesn't really think he'll achieve one. He's just shit-stirring to make himself look good to with those without any bloody sense.

    This is probably true, but the same applies to the people bringing the original private member's bill that he's pretending to try to amend.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,541



    Sky News has to adhere to impartiality rules; newspapers don't, but the Sun and Times both gave very limited coverage to the spat.

    The Telegraph story is hilarious, but it does send out a clear message that a section of the Conservative party wants to exercise control over BBC news output. It's all rather Stalinist.

    That's pretty hilarious coming from a Labour supporter during the Blair years. Those sordid governments were more concerned with trying to control the media than actually govern the country. Hence the whole BBC Hutton mess.

    I should repeat before one of the usual suspects pipes up, that I like the BBC. I don't mind paying the licence fee, which is blooming good value. That does not mean, as some leftists think, that the BBC is immune from criticism.

    Those Tory MPs are clearly trying to shackle the BBC. That Labour tried to do it over Iraq does not make it any less Stalinist. It merely shows both sides want the BBC to be more helpful to them.
    'Shackle the BBC'. Really?

    Are you saying that the Miliband story merited the prominence it got on the BBC and other outlets?

    I am saying all broadcast news outlets made the same editorial call. When that happens it is absurd to accuse just one of them of bias.

    "made the same editorial call"

    Proof, please. As Tim would say, let's have proof not anecdote, that Sky and Channel 4 treated the story with the same prominence as the BBC.

    I am giving an opinion. But let's be silly: you prove they didn't.

    Ah good, so it's just an opinion.

    And I don't need to prove anything: down below I said it was a matter of perception as few, if any, of us could watch and measure all the output. You were the one making that particular claim.
  • @Alanbrooke - The Mail will continue to be really horrible to Ed, that is spot on. Most Mail readers will lap it up, true too. That was always going to be the case. But more vengeful? It's difficult to see how they can trump what they've already done. Ed had nothing to lose. He knows exactly what he's going to get from the Tory press over the next 20 months. I think we'll just have to agree to disagree.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    SeanT said:

    The public may abhor Ed Miliband, but he is politically quite clever and guileful. The trouble is the public still abhor him.

    "Abhor" is putting it a too strongly, they just think he's a bit rubbish.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    edited October 2013

    @Alanbrooke - The Mail will continue to be really horrible to Ed, that is spot on. Most Mail readers will lap it up, true too. That was always going to be the case. But more vengeful? It's difficult to see how they can trump what they've already done. Ed had nothing to lose. He knows exactly what he's going to get from the Tory press over the next 20 months. I think we'll just have to agree to disagree.

    Yes I think so. The press quite happily take Cameron and Clegg outside every so often and give them a going over. Ed's simply getting his turn but he has chosen to make an issue of tomorrow's chip paper. So now he and by extension his party will get more attention and the other two party leaders will get an easier ride. Why would you want to make life harder for yourself and easier for the opposition ?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    DavidL said:

    When you see stories like this: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10357189/Green-energy-to-cost-consumers-400-over-next-five-years.html

    And this: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10358461/Carbon-tax-too-expensive-says-industry.html

    we begin to see what a mess we have got ourselves into with carbon taxes and subsidised green energy. I think there is a real opportunity here for the tories (the other parties are completely wedded to it) to break with the consensus. Osborne hinted at it at Conference when he said that it was not necessary for the UK to be in the vanguard in these areas.

    A tory policy that achieves cuts (or at least reduced increases) in energy bills by scaling back the subsidies quite aggressively would be very popular. I would not be surprised to see it be especially popular with UKIP supporters. It would also place an uncomfortable spotlight on the role the Ed played into getting us into this mess.

    It will be difficult to do much this side of the election given the Lib Dem approach but I would be surprised if this was not a major plank of the tory election campaign.

    The Tories are wedded to it too. They voted for it in opposition, and arguably made it worse during this government.

    The only party that seems likely to pursue a policy of cheap energy is UKIP. I'm expecting it to be a good retail offer for them in 2015: "Vote UKIP for lower utility bills!"

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,541

    DavidL said:

    When you see stories like this: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10357189/Green-energy-to-cost-consumers-400-over-next-five-years.html

    And this: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10358461/Carbon-tax-too-expensive-says-industry.html

    we begin to see what a mess we have got ourselves into with carbon taxes and subsidised green energy. I think there is a real opportunity here for the tories (the other parties are completely wedded to it) to break with the consensus. Osborne hinted at it at Conference when he said that it was not necessary for the UK to be in the vanguard in these areas.

    A tory policy that achieves cuts (or at least reduced increases) in energy bills by scaling back the subsidies quite aggressively would be very popular. I would not be surprised to see it be especially popular with UKIP supporters. It would also place an uncomfortable spotlight on the role the Ed played into getting us into this mess.

    It will be difficult to do much this side of the election given the Lib Dem approach but I would be surprised if this was not a major plank of the tory election campaign.

    The Tories are wedded to it too. They voted for it in opposition, and arguably made it worse during this government.

    The only party that seems likely to pursue a policy of cheap energy is UKIP. I'm expecting it to be a good retail offer for them in 2015: "Vote UKIP for lower utility bills!"

    As a matter of interest, do you have links to info. on UKIP's energy policies? It's an area I'm genuinely interested in, and the supporters do make it sound like they're taking a very different line from the other parties.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Total lack of support for Burnham on here from our leftist contributors and from Ed.

    Bet Andy wishes he was related to Ed - well in a Ed and his father way not Ed and David way...
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    edited October 2013
    tim said:

    @Alanbrooke - The Mail will continue to be really horrible to Ed, that is spot on. Most Mail readers will lap it up, true too. That was always going to be the case. But more vengeful? It's difficult to see how they can trump what they've already done. Ed had nothing to lose. He knows exactly what he's going to get from the Tory press over the next 20 months. I think we'll just have to agree to disagree.

    Yes I think so. The press quite happily take Cameron and Clegg outside every so often and give them a going over. Ed's simply getting his turn but he has chosen to make an issue of tomorrow's chip paper. So now he and by extension his party will get more attention and the other two party leaders will get an easier ride. Why would you want to make life harder for yourself and easier for the opposition ?

    Because he's going to spend the next year and a half accusing Cameron of being too close to the powerful.
    Well that should be fun.

    I mean Oxford PPE Ed, Grand Scion of the UK Establishment and bar, Nabob of Islington, Lord of the Block Vote might just have a few problems in that area himself.

    Don't they have mirrors in the Labour Party ?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    TGOHF said:

    Total lack of support for Burnham on here from our leftist contributors and from Ed.

    Bet Andy wishes he was related to Ed - well in a Ed and his father way not Ed and David way...

    It's a crying shame he didn't win the Labour leadership. ;-)
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    On Afriye: he's a twonk after media attention. I'm all for a referendum, but he doesn't really think he'll achieve one. He's just shit-stirring to make himself look good to with those without any bloody sense.

    If the Conservative MPs all voted for one, the numbers are there.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8847123/EU-referendum-how-the-MPs-voted.html
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    This Rawnsley piece gets the whole affair spot on.

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/oct/06/tories-sound-like-marxists?CMP=twt_fd

    As someone said yesterday, if you can't keep Charles Moore onside when attacking Marxists you know you've ballsed it up completely.

    Didn't I read that article in the Economist ???
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    On Afriye: he's a twonk after media attention. I'm all for a referendum, but he doesn't really think he'll achieve one. He's just shit-stirring to make himself look good to with those without any bloody sense.

    If the Conservative MPs all voted for one, the numbers are there.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8847123/EU-referendum-how-the-MPs-voted.html
    And it would be lost because nobody's done enough preparation to win it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,541
    TGOHF said:

    Total lack of support for Burnham on here from our leftist contributors and from Ed.

    Bet Andy wishes he was related to Ed - well in a Ed and his father way not Ed and David way...

    I was thinking about this last night, and I take a different line. Burnham's never really struck me as a gambler. I'm not sure he would have embarked on this course of action without a strong game plan.

    It's either that or desperation, and I don't think the situation warrants desperation yet.

    Hunt may be in more trouble than it seems.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    The Nasty Party - courtesy of Will Straw, just after Cameron's own disabled son had died.

    http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/04/theyll-turn-great-britain-into-little-britain/
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    TGOHF said:

    Total lack of support for Burnham on here from our leftist contributors and from Ed.

    Bet Andy wishes he was related to Ed - well in a Ed and his father way not Ed and David way...

    I was thinking about this last night, and I take a different line. Burnham's never really struck me as a gambler. I'm not sure he would have embarked on this course of action without a strong game plan.

    It's either that or desperation, and I don't think the situation warrants desperation yet.

    Hunt may be in more trouble than it seems.
    We don't know the internal Labour politics but if Ed Miliband was planning to sack Burnham in a reshuffle then desperation may be appropriate, and creating an inter-party bunfight around himself may be a rational way to make it harder to do.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Total lack of support for Burnham from his fellow scousers on here - even when he plays the victim card.

    He's doomed.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,541

    TGOHF said:

    Total lack of support for Burnham on here from our leftist contributors and from Ed.

    Bet Andy wishes he was related to Ed - well in a Ed and his father way not Ed and David way...

    I was thinking about this last night, and I take a different line. Burnham's never really struck me as a gambler. I'm not sure he would have embarked on this course of action without a strong game plan.

    It's either that or desperation, and I don't think the situation warrants desperation yet.

    Hunt may be in more trouble than it seems.
    We don't know the internal Labour politics but if Ed Miliband was planning to sack Burnham in a reshuffle then desperation may be appropriate, and creating an inter-party bunfight around himself may be a rational way to make it harder to do.
    A good point, but the problem is that Burnham may find it hard to back down if the story gains traction. Threatening to sue over what is an important issue, then not doing so, will just add credence to the original claim.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    TGOHF said:

    Total lack of support for Burnham on here from our leftist contributors and from Ed.

    Bet Andy wishes he was related to Ed - well in a Ed and his father way not Ed and David way...

    I was thinking about this last night, and I take a different line. Burnham's never really struck me as a gambler. I'm not sure he would have embarked on this course of action without a strong game plan.

    It's either that or desperation, and I don't think the situation warrants desperation yet.

    Hunt may be in more trouble than it seems.
    We don't know the internal Labour politics but if Ed Miliband was planning to sack Burnham in a reshuffle then desperation may be appropriate, and creating an inter-party bunfight around himself may be a rational way to make it harder to do.
    A good point, but the problem is that Burnham may find it hard to back down if the story gains traction. Threatening to sue over what is an important issue, then not doing so, will just add credence to the original claim.
    Possibly, but that's all a lower priority concern than keeping his job, shorely? In any case it's not like the libel thing is a huge, consequential issue that's going to move a lot of votes.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    DavidL said:

    When you see stories like this: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10357189/Green-energy-to-cost-consumers-400-over-next-five-years.html

    And this: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10358461/Carbon-tax-too-expensive-says-industry.html

    we begin to see what a mess we have got ourselves into with carbon taxes and subsidised green energy. I think there is a real opportunity here for the tories (the other parties are completely wedded to it) to break with the consensus. Osborne hinted at it at Conference when he said that it was not necessary for the UK to be in the vanguard in these areas.

    A tory policy that achieves cuts (or at least reduced increases) in energy bills by scaling back the subsidies quite aggressively would be very popular. I would not be surprised to see it be especially popular with UKIP supporters. It would also place an uncomfortable spotlight on the role the Ed played into getting us into this mess.

    It will be difficult to do much this side of the election given the Lib Dem approach but I would be surprised if this was not a major plank of the tory election campaign.

    The Tories are wedded to it too. They voted for it in opposition, and arguably made it worse during this government.

    The only party that seems likely to pursue a policy of cheap energy is UKIP. I'm expecting it to be a good retail offer for them in 2015: "Vote UKIP for lower utility bills!"

    As a matter of interest, do you have links to info. on UKIP's energy policies? It's an area I'm genuinely interested in, and the supporters do make it sound like they're taking a very different line from the other parties.
    Link below to "Keeping the Lights on". (Base energy strategy on gas, nuclear, and coal.)

    http://www.ukip.org/images/PDFs/keeping-the-lights-on.pdf

    http://youtu.be/sQPm528T4Fs
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Millsy said:

    In summary: Miliband doing well to get lefties on his side (again). After all, disheartened party supporters won't pound the streets for you.

    From the ST YouGov polling it appears Miliband is the only winner from the conference season, increasing his support (from a very low base) among lefties.

    Miliband with voting groups:
    Lab +55
    L10 +32
    LD10 +26

    How does this work?

    I assumed that L10 and LD10 are the biggest components of Lnow. If they are both in the 25-35 range, how come the overall Lnow rating is at +55? What am I missing?
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Charles said:

    Millsy said:

    In summary: Miliband doing well to get lefties on his side (again). After all, disheartened party supporters won't pound the streets for you.

    From the ST YouGov polling it appears Miliband is the only winner from the conference season, increasing his support (from a very low base) among lefties.

    Miliband with voting groups:
    Lab +55
    L10 +32
    LD10 +26

    How does this work?

    I assumed that L10 and LD10 are the biggest components of Lnow. If they are both in the 25-35 range, how come the overall Lnow rating is at +55? What am I missing?
    I assume it's just that the L10 and LD10 that are Lnow are not a representative sample, they disproportionately back Miliband.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Roger said:

    @Carlotta

    "Most likely to see after the next election"

    Rather shows the weakness in the theory of 'the wisdom of the crowd'. it has to be an objective crowd (not something to be found from among Mail readers)

    Most like to see at next GE:
    Maj Con: 52 (+22)
    Con-LD: 7 (-2)
    Lab-LD: 6 (-6)
    Maj Lab: 17 (-14)

    This isn't WotC though, Roger.

    The questions asked what would they like to see, not what they expect to see
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    TGOHF said:

    Total lack of support for Burnham from his fellow scousers on here - even when he plays the victim card.

    He's doomed.

    Labour is now the Cry Babies Party = how pathetic this all is. Playing the victim isn't a trait I've ever sought in a leader.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    And for nostalgia fans

    RT @LabourHistory: Today in 2007 Gordon Brown announced that he would not call an early general election: news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7031749.s…
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,676

    "AN INDEPENDENT Scotland could not expect to automatically inherit the country’s ­historic regiments nor the servicemen and women who serve in them, Defence Secretary Philip Hammond will ­insist this week."

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/scottish-independence-warning-over-scots-regiments-1-3128366

    Remind me, which country do the Irish Guards serve?

    More guff from London. We already own almost 10% of the UK army so this clown is talking bilge as usual. Hopefully this will be their position after they lose and they can keep their £1 trillion debt as well, they could not run a bath.
This discussion has been closed.