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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Irrespective of whether there’s an impeachment move it’s going to be harder for Trump to win again at WH2020
Three points about Trump:1) Virtually no one who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 is for him today;2) About 37% of Trump's 2016 voters are ambivalent about him and are far from hard core;3) Cohen's implication of Trump will have a corrosive effect on those ambivalent Trump voters
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I’d expect him to face a serious primary challenge and win.
He’s got Corbynite levels of support from his own supporters.
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1032634313194393601
Demanding news you only approve of, which must appeal to your incorrect understanding of the facts.
As for the stabbing story it appears to be not the usual modus operandi.
He’s reportedly killed family members.
Corbyn backs state regulation of the press. I don't.
What do Trumptons like you think of Trumpton currently? Still supporting him?
One big drawback for the Republicans about this week’s news is that every candidate is going to have to take a view on the appropriateness of the impeachment process before the mid term elections. That’s easy for Democrats, who need only find some form of words along the lines of “it looks like there’s a case to answer”, but Republicans will have to decide whether to cut him loose, look weaselly or give hostages to fortune. Looking weaselly isn’t usually a vote-winner.
O/T Some wise words
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10155519301971625&set=gm.10156793348804674&type=3&theater
Seems likely Trump's opponent could have little name recognition.
As it happens, I'm unsure there are many (any?) 'Trumptons' on the site atm - Plato was one, but most people seem to be looking at the betting implications rather than slavish followers of the orange one.
(and it should be remembered that Plato was right - even if I doubt she was right for the right reasons. People on here made money from Trump's win.)
Oxymoron or just moron?
Admittedly, Trump's ratings amongst Republicans in CA aren't too bad (they're dire amongst Californian voters in general, of course), but I would have thought the state wouldn't be as reliable for Trump as some of the other early ones.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/10/early-2020-california-primary-could-affect-republicans-too.html
A lot may depend on the exact rules for the primaries, which haven't been decided yet.
Somewhat to my surprise I got on the programme, and Mr Knob didn't. I had a chance to talk to one of the selectors not long after I started and I mentioned that I thought Mr Knob would have been a shoe-in. "Oh yes, him." came the reply. "After lunch, he was in the gents and was saying to one of the other candidates something along the lines of how we're a noddy outfit and as soon as he'd done a couple of years here he'd be off to the private sector. What he didn't know was that [one of the IT dept's senior managers] was there as well and immediately after went to tell us not to select him!"
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1032628559423188992
In case anyone is wondering that doesn't seem to have been true for History or at any rate not with the board I work with. The marks are shockingly low across the country. Something to do with a failed civil servant now head of OFSTED having comprehensively buggered up the markscheme.
P.S. I assume you refer to Plato's teaching that only a small proportion of human beings are engaged by reasoned discourse, but that the multitude are attracted by the telling of stories.
Yes, that accounts for Trump's success over Clinton but my question was about whether those who *supported* him still do so.
How good were treasury forecasts for - oh I dunno - 2 years out from the referendum?
1. Always chat to the receptionist as the person interviewing you is 90% certain to ask her what she thought of the candidates.
2. Never comment upon or discuss the interview in person or by telephone until at least one full mile away from the place in which the interview took place.
And by 'Plato' I was referring to a poster who loved cats and was, at one time, poster of the year. She became a rather strong Trump fan.
Former Labor PM says Liberal leadership crisis is part of worrying trend in global politics"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/23/australia-headed-for-ugly-election-based-on-race-warns-julia-gillard
I agree, but only in the sense that the most likely stop-Trump contender will be a Democrat.
Trump's base is big and solid. It's not big enough to deliver him a general election but it is big enough to deliver him the nomination in a primary process which is traditionally low-turnout. Would independents and Democrats really forego the chance to vote in the Democrat primaries - which are likely to be much more closely contested - to vote in the GOP race for an as-yet unknown alternative? i doubt it. I'd expect that Trump's core will be more than formidable enough to deter alternatives, unless there is a lot of impeachable evidence floating about.
We've also got to remember the precedents that challenges to sitting presidents are rare and successful challenges are even rarer.
No sitting president has faced any meaningful challenge since Bush-41, and that's pushing the definitions (Buchanan won no states but did come within 16 points in New Hampshire, before slowly fading).
You have to go back to Johnson in 1968 to find the last time a president was forced out by a primary challenge (though Johnson might still have won had he not withdrawn), and - I think - back to the 19th century for the last case of a president who fought through being ousted (though Harding might have been had he not died, as might Theodore Roosevelt, had Hanna not died - but they were not contests governed by primaries).
To my mind, by far the best strategy for independents and Democrats is making sure the Democrat candidate is the strongest possible. It would be a tragedy if sensible centrist voters eschewed the Democrat race to vote against Trump, who then not only won the nomination anyway but then went on to defeat Sanders, who was let in on the other side by accident.
However, I demur from your view that there aren't Trump supporters (as opposed to backers) on here. There are. They might not admit it now, but that is a different matter.
The solar death ray was perfected for just such eventualities.
I am being assured that there are no Trump supporters on here, which I am fairly sure is complete rubbish, but there we are.
My investments are mostly in US equities, which have prospered under Trump.
So I back Trump - but don't live in the USA.
I didn't specify that the poster had to live in the US.
"As it happens, I'm unsure there are many (any?) 'Trumptons' on the site atm"
By Trumptons, I mean the wild-eyed followers of the orange one, who think they can do little wrong.
Corbyn: '[Zionists] clearly have two problems. One is they don't want to study history, and secondly, having lived in this country for a very long time, probably all their lives, they don't understand English irony either.'
'They needed two lessons, which we could perhaps help them with.'
They gave me a free pudding last time I was there.
I won't have to add 'passive' in front of 'anti-Semite' when discussing him.
It is absolutely bizarre - what other senior politician, let alone leader of a mainstream Party has taken such a sustained and profound interest in the situation of another country?
For me looking at him in front of the conference logo (Palestinian something plus the same in arabic) is as telling as anything he said which, as you note, is shocking even by his standards.
I wonder if he would prefer it if they all were sent back whence they came?
It was a culture shock for me.
I can understand a Glaswegian accent, but Lord, I cannot understand when two or more Glaswegians start talking to each other.
Just sticky toffee pudding.
Corbyn - and people like him - were nailed by Albert Camus many decades ago -
"Mistaken ideas always end in bloodshed but in every case it is someone else's blood . That is why some of our thinkers feel free to say just about anything."
(Though one should perhaps add the phrase “and support” after “say” in that quote.
The late Tony Judt also had the measure of people like Corbyn and Milne and McDonnell:
"Totalitarianism of the Left, much like an earlier totalitarianism of the Right, was about violence and power and control, and it appealed because of these features, not in spite of them."
https://prc.org.uk/en/page/3920/our-values
Maybe that's what his remarks were a reference to.
Or maybe he's just as thick as pigshit.
Zaghari-Ratcliffe, whose plight touched the nation and left a shadow hanging over Iran-UK relations, was given a three-day furlough on Thursday morning in a move that took her and her family by surprise.
She has since been reunited with her four-year-old daughter, Gabriella, who has been in the care of her Iranian family since she was 22-months-old.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/aug/23/nazanin-zaghari-ratcliffe-freed-temporarily-from-iran-jail
As for the accent: I once had a Glaswegian colleague (whose name was 'Scott'). His accent was so thick that none of our foreign customers could understand him, so I had to be in on the conference call to translate. It was hard enough for me at times, especially if he got animated.
He was a great bloke.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-scotlan
Imagine if someone were to say that about black people who had come here from the West Indies as children - that they didn’t somehow understand some bit of the British character - despite living here most of their lives.
And to accuse Jews of not wanting to study history is utterly bizarre. If anything, it is precisely because Jews have a very acute sense of history that they are so simultaneously defensive about what they have and, In Israel, so aggressive towards others who also have a claim.
I thought donations/subs were free from tax?
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1032507732820221952
What shall I do?
I want to go to Birmingham and they've taken me onto Crewe.