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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It looks like Dave’s reshuffle is really on…

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited October 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It looks like Dave’s reshuffle is really on…

From @isabelhardman: Chloe Smith and John Randall quit government ahead of reshuffle http://t.co/bbVLMvDeND

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Timing seems odd. Or is it?
  • 2 Shadow Junior Minister resigned this week. So Labour can be about to reshuffle to
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    What a pathetic whine by Allegra Stratton. If she wants a well paid job at the BBC she needs to learn how to use Sky+

    ;-)
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    Remember Dave, Kris Hopkins and Gavin Barwell. Make it happen.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    tim said:

    Looks like the "sorry I couldn't get you your missile strikes but I'll promote some women if you insist" reshuffle is underway

    Draper's bid to smear Samantha Cameron continues...

    What happened to your firm principles about leaving family members out of this? Or does that just apply to dead Marxists?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    JohnO said:

    Remember Dave, Kris Hopkins and Gavin Barwell. Make it happen.

    How modest not to suggest a ministerial role for yourself after Dave does the right thing and elevates you to the Lords!

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    @Neil No, I'm more needed in the Irish Senate!
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    FPT
    SeanT said:

    tim said:

    SeanT said:

    OK, this is weird.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2245827/Minister-Chloe-Smith-proposes-boyfriend-Sandy-McFadzean-whirlwind-4-month-romance.html

    Really? Him?!

    I can't help feeling that we're not getting the entire story. But maybe I am just sad, middle-aged and enviously suspicious.

    She's crap, that's all.
    Tish tish, tim. You love gossip as much as I. A bit of googling and you will see all kinds of crustacean-joustering possibilities.

    I thought you were up to speed.
    My guess is that these are two junior ministers being allowed to announce their resignations in advance of a wider reshuffle to mitigate the impression that they have been ignominiously sacked.

    Chloe Smith married earlier this year and has a by election gain and marginal to retain in 2015. Allowing her to announce she is stepping down to concentrate on her constituency work before the reshuffle improves her re-election chances.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @JohnO

    Only the Irish electorate would happily pay millions of pounds for a retirement home for crap politicians!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    2 Shadow Junior Minister resigned this week. So Labour can be about to reshuffle to

    Indeed. Speculation Andy Burnham who was going to be sacked for trashing Labour's reputation on the NHS has made himself unsackable with his libel stunt.

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    So far looks like a bit of a move against Osborne!

    Maybe Dave realises he can't have 5 - yes 5 - strategists. Maybe Osborne is being put away by Crosby.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    tim said:

    Carola said:

    Timing seems odd. Or is it?

    Dave zaps servants during Downton Abbey after promoting them because he couldn't be arsed getting their names or qualifications right

    @michaelsavage: Feel a bit sorry for Chloe Smith, made a minister v early (the PM wrongly thought she was an accountant, apparently) http://t.co/fsSIRm6JEN
    Funny, I was just thinking how much you reminded me of Miss O'Brien. Shame she's left the programme.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    IOS said:

    So far looks like a bit of a move against Osborne!

    Maybe Dave realises he can't have 5 - yes 5 - strategists. Maybe Osborne is being put away by Crosby.

    There may be five strategists, but only one master strategist ;-)
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    @tim

    Have you found any actual evidence that Mrs Cameron wanted her husband to launch missiles or are you still relying on that single article you linked to before, which confirmed nothing of the sort?

    If you haven't anything more then STFU!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    FPT. @Neil It is more likely that the expense claim would be for 0.6 of a mile. The quoted paperwork is for 0.06 of a mile. Looks like a foul up but creates very silly headlines.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    edited October 2013
    Neil said:

    @JohnO

    Only the Irish electorate would happily pay millions of pounds for a retirement home for crap politicians!

    Don't be so bitter. How much did you lose?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    IOS said:

    So far looks like a bit of a move against Osborne!

    I think you're reading a bit much into the few details available so far.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    FPT:
    tim said:

    Looks like the "sorry I couldn't get you your missile strikes but I'll promote some women if you insist" reshuffle is underway

    Is that Cameron or Miliband?

    Or is Miliband hamstrung by a pending law suit?
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Rob D

    But given how Osborne screws up everything maybe this is a cull.


    Dave never bothers about leadership on this electoral stuff so that's him taken care of.
    Crosby already has Messina under him.
    So he takes Osborne and Hunt out and he can run the show himself.


  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Neil

    I did say so far....... :-)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good evening, everyone.

    Does this count against the theory that Clegg might get sent back to his homeland of Brussels?

    I enjoyed the first episode of season three, but I was a bit surprised by the ending.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Neil said:

    IOS said:

    So far looks like a bit of a move against Osborne!

    I think you're reading a bit much into the few details available so far.
    IOS has a track record of predicting Labour landslides in parts of the country which have only two known Labour voters.

    It's all in the algorithm, Neil.

  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    @tim

    Got any more on your libel of Toby Young, or have you given that one up now?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    JohnO said:

    Neil said:

    @JohnO

    Only the Irish electorate would happily pay millions of pounds for a retirement home for crap politicians!

    Don't be so bitter. How much did you lose?
    Not a penny - I didnt have a firm enough view on any of the related markets to bet any money.

    It was a bonkers decision. There can hardly be a more useless house of parliament in the western world.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    Neil said:

    JohnO said:

    Neil said:

    @JohnO

    Only the Irish electorate would happily pay millions of pounds for a retirement home for crap politicians!

    Don't be so bitter. How much did you lose?
    Not a penny - I didnt have a firm enough view on any of the related markets to bet any money.

    It was a bonkers decision. There can hardly be a more useless house of parliament in the western world.
    That's a relief, I was on the point of contacting Prof Nabavi and arranging a pbTory bail-out.

    And you and Sinn Fein on the same side. Wonders will never cease.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Good evening, everyone.
    I enjoyed the first episode of season three, but I was a bit surprised by the ending.

    Bother! I hadn't realised it had started and was wallowing in Downton (which has considerably raised its game) - so 4OD it is and set the recorder for next week!

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    And, for our Labour friends

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10359557/Labour-accused-of-bullying-behaviour-after-threatening-to-sue-health-secretary.html

    "Labour has come under fire from campaigners after threatening to sue the Health Secretary in a row over care standards in failing NHS hospitals.""

    "Julie Bailey, whose mother died in Stafford hospital and who later formed the Cure the NHS campaign group, said: “He is trying to silence Mr Hunt, but the uncomfortable truth is that patients died needlessly and suffered under Labour’s watch. He can’t sweep this under the carpet.”"

  • Charles said:

    What a pathetic whine by Allegra Stratton. If she wants a well paid job at the BBC she needs to learn how to use Sky+

    ;-)

    Austin Allegra! :)
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    JohnO said:

    Neil said:

    JohnO said:

    Neil said:

    @JohnO

    Only the Irish electorate would happily pay millions of pounds for a retirement home for crap politicians!

    Don't be so bitter. How much did you lose?
    Not a penny - I didnt have a firm enough view on any of the related markets to bet any money.

    It was a bonkers decision. There can hardly be a more useless house of parliament in the western world.
    That's a relief, I was on the point of contacting Prof Nabavi and arranging a pbTory bail-out.

    And you and Sinn Fein on the same side. Wonders will never cease.
    On this issue one is forced into the difficult position of having to side with one of Sinn Fein or Fianna Fail.
  • Neil said:

    @JohnO

    Only the Irish electorate would happily pay millions of pounds for a retirement home for crap politicians!

    That's no way to speak of the House of Lords*!!!

    (*The only Upper House in the world larger than its respective Lower House!)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @IsabelHardman: MP gossip is Randall might have resigned b/c Andrew Mitchell is on his way back in. Remember R threatened to quit if M didn't go in 2012.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Good evening, everyone.
    I enjoyed the first episode of season three, but I was a bit surprised by the ending.

    Bother! I hadn't realised it had started and was wallowing in Downton (which has considerably raised its game) - so 4OD it is and set the recorder for next week!

    Pah! Getting a bit bored with Downton now; never really got into Homeland. The only TV prog for me these days is Montalbano: Sicily, sea, sex, food and wine. What's not to love!

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Avery

    Joke all you want - and I never predicted a Labour landslide, just the Tories weren't working - which they aren't and they weren't.

    Labour is killing the Tories in the marginals through its ground game. That is all that has and ever matters.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Miss Vance, thanks to the TV catchup thingummyjigs missing the first episode is not so bad, so long as you realise it.

    I missed about the first 2-3 episodes of both series of Alphas. Shame that got cancelled, but there we are.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited October 2013
    So Chloe Smith, the "Tory Golden Girl" of 3 and 1/2 years ago turns out to be a relative failure, Shame really, I thought she had some spark, but pehaps spark is not wanted in No 10.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    @Carola It is rather hard to read Burnham's three bits of evidence.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    IOS said:

    Avery

    Joke all you want - and I never predicted a Labour landslide, just the Tories weren't working - which they aren't and they weren't.

    Labour is killing the Tories in the marginals through its ground game. That is all that has and ever matters.

    Labour is certainly setting the pace in Kingswood - I'll grant you that.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    @IOS Do you like Labour's attempts to make Kingswood less marginal.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-24391278
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536

    Good evening, everyone.

    Does this count against the theory that Clegg might get sent back to his homeland of Brussels?

    I enjoyed the first episode of season three, but I was a bit surprised by the ending.

    I never grasp how anyone has time in their lives to watch these mega-series. The odd film and some sport is all I am able to squeeze in.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Cyclefree said:

    Good evening, everyone.
    I enjoyed the first episode of season three, but I was a bit surprised by the ending.

    Bother! I hadn't realised it had started and was wallowing in Downton (which has considerably raised its game) - so 4OD it is and set the recorder for next week!

    Pah! Getting a bit bored with Downton now; never really got into Homeland. The only TV prog for me these days is Montalbano: Sicily, sea, sex, food and wine. What's not to love!
    BIG fan of Montalbano - seen the TV show, want the holiday! That and "Spiral" the French crime drama with the two strong female leads.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    Both reshuffles are supposed to be imminent, and I assume Avery is right that the two early resignations were given special leave to jump before being pushed. The only trouble with that is that it seems to create two classes of sacking: either there are only two dismissals (the Night of the Short Teaspoons) or others not given this opportunity will feel understandably miffed.

    Locao pexpectation is that Anna Soubry will make it to Minister of State level at least, perhaps even a Cabinet jump?
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    John and Doctor Spyn

    Labour's ground game is so good we can have our leader call people bigots and still pick up the seat....


    All joking aside. We are killing the Tories in the seats that matter day after day after day. The Tories are so far behind it's comical. Not least cos they have pent a £1 million on someone who does sweet FA to help.
  • Please Dave as part of your reshuffle sack Phil Hammond and appoint Owen Paterson as Foreign Secretary.

    On Homeland, the high point of the episode, which led to me making the sort of noises Carrie made on the stairs.

    On Carrie's notes on the pad that her lawyer read, one of the things Carrie wrote was

    "You killed my son - prepare to die"

    Given Saul's role as Inigo Montoya, in the Princess Bride, I had a major Geekgasm.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    dr_spyn said:

    @Carola It is rather hard to read Burnham's three bits of evidence.

    I know. Even the old control+ couldn't help. Anyway, all that squinting has worn me out. Off to bed to have 'reshuffle dreams'. Or nightmares, who knows.
  • Carola said:

    dr_spyn said:

    @Carola It is rather hard to read Burnham's three bits of evidence.

    I know. Even the old control+ couldn't help. Anyway, all that squinting has worn me out. Off to bed to have 'reshuffle dreams'. Or nightmares, who knows.
    Does this mean you're going to have dreams about Eric Pickles?

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    @NP - And don't forget Simon Burns last week - is he liked on the Labour benches (thinking of the Dep Speaker election) or Eleanor Laing (I'd have thought her a bit abrasive).

    Agree about Anna being promoted, but straight into Cabinet from PUSS would be most unusual.
  • SeanT said:

    Both reshuffles are supposed to be imminent, and I assume Avery is right that the two early resignations were given special leave to jump before being pushed. The only trouble with that is that it seems to create two classes of sacking: either there are only two dismissals (the Night of the Short Teaspoons) or others not given this opportunity will feel understandably miffed.

    Locao pexpectation is that Anna Soubry will make it to Minister of State level at least, perhaps even a Cabinet jump?

    If she makes Cabinet, I suspect you are somewhat f*cked in terms of returning? Few constituencies sack a Cabinet Minister.

    It must be a weird feeling for you.
    1997 - Seven Cabinet ministers lost their seats, including some with majorities much larger than Miss Soubry's majority.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Both reshuffles are supposed to be imminent, and I assume Avery is right that the two early resignations were given special leave to jump before being pushed. The only trouble with that is that it seems to create two classes of sacking: either there are only two dismissals (the Night of the Short Teaspoons) or others not given this opportunity will feel understandably miffed.

    Locao pexpectation is that Anna Soubry will make it to Minister of State level at least, perhaps even a Cabinet jump?

    Or, possibly, it might be entirely what it seems to be: two people who for their own reasons wanted to leave the government. So they resign ahead of the reshuffle as they are not being sacked.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805

    Carola said:

    dr_spyn said:

    @Carola It is rather hard to read Burnham's three bits of evidence.

    I know. Even the old control+ couldn't help. Anyway, all that squinting has worn me out. Off to bed to have 'reshuffle dreams'. Or nightmares, who knows.
    Does this mean you're going to have dreams about Eric Pickles?

    That would be filed under the nightmare category.

    Nice Sun fp btw.

    Night all. Try to get some sleep with all this excitement going on.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    JohnO said:

    IOS said:

    Avery

    Joke all you want - and I never predicted a Labour landslide, just the Tories weren't working - which they aren't and they weren't.

    Labour is killing the Tories in the marginals through its ground game. That is all that has and ever matters.

    Labour is certainly setting the pace in Kingswood - I'll grant you that.
    Show some sympathy, JohnO.

    It's clearly difficult to operate a solid ground game without incurring parking penalties.

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    IOS said:

    John and Doctor Spyn

    Labour's ground game is so good we can have our leader call people bigots and still pick up the seat....


    All joking aside. We are killing the Tories in the seats that matter day after day after day. The Tories are so far behind it's comical. Not least cos they have pent a £1 million on someone who does sweet FA to help.

    Sorry mate, until you can provide some evidence, we'll just continue to treat you as a rather immature spin-merchant.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    SeanT said:

    Both reshuffles are supposed to be imminent, and I assume Avery is right that the two early resignations were given special leave to jump before being pushed. The only trouble with that is that it seems to create two classes of sacking: either there are only two dismissals (the Night of the Short Teaspoons) or others not given this opportunity will feel understandably miffed.

    Locao pexpectation is that Anna Soubry will make it to Minister of State level at least, perhaps even a Cabinet jump?

    If she makes Cabinet, I suspect you are somewhat f*cked in terms of returning? Few constituencies sack a Cabinet Minister.

    It must be a weird feeling for you.
    I see your assumption and raise you Chris Patten
  • And Dave, can you reshuffle Adam Afriyie, make him British Ambassador to The Sudan or Afghanistan.

    If Adam Afriyie loses Windsor at the next election, I'm calling it a Tory Gain.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545
    I can see why Adam Afriyie can't sleep at night due to worrying about what year the tory EU referendum is held in. Every other tory can't sleep due to waiting for the phone from no. 10 to ring...
  • Stirling 1997
    Kettering 1997
    Edinburgh Pentlands 1997
    Bristol West 1997
    Enfield Southgate 1997
    Braintree 1997
    Galloway and Upper Nithsdale 1997

    Bath 1992

    Hertford and Stevenage 1979

    Moray and Nairn 1974

    Gloucester 1970

    Doncaster 1964
    Norwich South 1964

    Shipley 1950

    5 in 1945
    SeanT said:


    If she makes Cabinet, I suspect you are somewhat f*cked in terms of returning? Few constituencies sack a Cabinet Minister.

    It must be a weird feeling for you.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    I guess Adam Afriyie made sure he wasn't offered a post by Cameron.
  • John Denham's 192 votes majority was the nearest a cabinet minister came to being ousted in 2010.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    John O

    Lord Ashcrofts mega poll. Will that do? Lucky for us the Tories are full of members like yourself who are just about as clueless as can be when it comes to winning a modern election.
  • Carola said:

    dr_spyn said:

    @Carola It is rather hard to read Burnham's three bits of evidence.

    I know. Even the old control+ couldn't help. Anyway, all that squinting has worn me out. Off to bed to have 'reshuffle dreams'. Or nightmares, who knows.
    Does this mean you're going to have dreams about Eric Pickles?

    Speak for yourself, TSE!!
  • SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Both reshuffles are supposed to be imminent, and I assume Avery is right that the two early resignations were given special leave to jump before being pushed. The only trouble with that is that it seems to create two classes of sacking: either there are only two dismissals (the Night of the Short Teaspoons) or others not given this opportunity will feel understandably miffed.

    Locao pexpectation is that Anna Soubry will make it to Minister of State level at least, perhaps even a Cabinet jump?

    If she makes Cabinet, I suspect you are somewhat f*cked in terms of returning? Few constituencies sack a Cabinet Minister.

    It must be a weird feeling for you.
    1997 - Seven Cabinet ministers lost their seats, including some with majorities much larger than Miss Soubry's majority.
    1997 was obviously revolutionary. 2015 is not going to be that.

    But I confess my assertion is based on a hunch, not actual evidence. My subconscious tells me that voters are less likely to turf out a significant MP - i.e. a Cabinet Minister - as compared to a no-mark backbencher.

    We all like to be influential, and knowing that YOUR MP is in the ACTUAL Cabinet must - I would have thought - be gratifying in a vague, inexplicable way to floating voters who might otherwise be tempted vote for the opposing party.

    This is just a guess. Perhaps some uber-geek has done research which proves me entirely wrong, and if so, fair enough.
    A few weeks ago, when some posters were discussing whether Labour or UKIP could oust Nick Clegg in Sheffield Hallam, I said, the voters liked having the Deputy PM as their MP.

    But Andrea's research, below, shows how often it does happen.
  • dr_spyn said:

    I guess Adam Afriyie made sure he wasn't offered a post by Cameron.

    Leaving him well-placed for the post-2015 Tory post-mortem?
  • Carola said:

    dr_spyn said:

    @Carola It is rather hard to read Burnham's three bits of evidence.

    I know. Even the old control+ couldn't help. Anyway, all that squinting has worn me out. Off to bed to have 'reshuffle dreams'. Or nightmares, who knows.
    Does this mean you're going to have dreams about Eric Pickles?

    Speak for yourself, TSE!!
    I do not intend to dream about Eric Pickles, ever.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    SeanT said:

    Both reshuffles are supposed to be imminent, and I assume Avery is right that the two early resignations were given special leave to jump before being pushed. The only trouble with that is that it seems to create two classes of sacking: either there are only two dismissals (the Night of the Short Teaspoons) or others not given this opportunity will feel understandably miffed.

    Locao pexpectation is that Anna Soubry will make it to Minister of State level at least, perhaps even a Cabinet jump?

    If she makes Cabinet, I suspect you are somewhat f*cked in terms of returning? Few constituencies sack a Cabinet Minister.

    It must be a weird feeling for you.
    Surely that's mostly a result of ministers usually being picked from safe seats? They may get a bit more support and resources from the central party and a few 'prestige votes', but I think Nick would be favourite regardless of Anna Soubry's job come 2015.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    edited October 2013
    IOS said:

    John O

    Lord Ashcrofts mega poll. Will that do? Lucky for us the Tories are full of members like yourself who are just about as clueless as can be when it comes to winning a modern election.

    LoL. Silly, sad child. Polls in marginal seats, like those from Lord A, are notoriously unreliable. Can't you recall those done just weeks before the last election that showed the Tories romping to certain victory? In the event, the party did slightly better in the marginals but nothing like as well as these polls had suggested.

    And you know nothing about me and elections!
  • SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Both reshuffles are supposed to be imminent, and I assume Avery is right that the two early resignations were given special leave to jump before being pushed. The only trouble with that is that it seems to create two classes of sacking: either there are only two dismissals (the Night of the Short Teaspoons) or others not given this opportunity will feel understandably miffed.

    Locao pexpectation is that Anna Soubry will make it to Minister of State level at least, perhaps even a Cabinet jump?

    If she makes Cabinet, I suspect you are somewhat f*cked in terms of returning? Few constituencies sack a Cabinet Minister.

    It must be a weird feeling for you.
    1997 - Seven Cabinet ministers lost their seats, including some with majorities much larger than Miss Soubry's majority.
    1997 was obviously revolutionary. 2015 is not going to be that.

    But I confess my assertion is based on a hunch, not actual evidence. My subconscious tells me that voters are less likely to turf out a significant MP - i.e. a Cabinet Minister - as compared to a no-mark backbencher.

    We all like to be influential, and knowing that YOUR MP is in the ACTUAL Cabinet must - I would have thought - be gratifying in a vague, inexplicable way to floating voters who might otherwise be tempted vote for the opposing party.

    This is just a guess. Perhaps some uber-geek has done research which proves me entirely wrong, and if so, fair enough.
    A few weeks ago, when some posters were discussing whether Labour or UKIP could oust Nick Clegg in Sheffield Hallam, I said, the voters liked having the Deputy PM as their MP.

    But Andrea's research, below, shows how often it does happen.
    Sure. But I need figures though. Do Cabinet Ministers, Ministers, and Media Celebrated MPs do better than the average swing, in an election, might predict?

    My Tom Knox Antennae tell me Yes, but I have NO data to back this up. So I am happy to be proved wrong.
    I'll try and do a thread on it, once I've collated the data.
  • Nice to see Hans Zimmer get an Outstanding Contribution to Music award at the Classical Brits.
  • SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Both reshuffles are supposed to be

    Locao pexpectation is that Anna Soubry will make it to Minister of State level at least, perhaps even a Cabinet jump?

    If she makes Cabinet, I suspect you are somewhat f*cked in terms of returning? Few constituencies sack a Cabinet Minister.

    It must be a weird feeling for you.
    1997 - Seven Cabinet ministers lost their seats, including some with majorities much larger than Miss Soubry's majority.
    1997 was obviously revolutionary. 2015 is not going to be that.


    This is just a guess. Perhaps some uber-geek has done research which proves me entirely wrong, and if so, fair enough.
    A few weeks ago, when some posters were discussing whether Labour or UKIP could oust Nick Clegg in Sheffield Hallam, I said, the voters liked having the Deputy PM as their MP.

    But Andrea's research, below, shows how often it does happen.
    Sure. But I need figures though. Do Cabinet Ministers, Ministers, and Media Celebrated MPs do better than the average swing, in an election, might predict?

    My Tom Knox Antennae tell me Yes, but I have NO data to back this up. So I am happy to be proved wrong.
    I'll try and do a thread on it, once I've collated the data.
    You, Sir, are a dude.
    In the meantime, read this piece by Henry from earlier on in the summer.

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/06/07/do-the-size-of-ministers-majorities-matter/
  • Carola said:

    dr_spyn said:

    @Carola It is rather hard to read Burnham's three bits of evidence.

    I know. Even the old control+ couldn't help. Anyway, all that squinting has worn me out. Off to bed to have 'reshuffle dreams'. Or nightmares, who knows.
    Does this mean you're going to have dreams about Eric Pickles?

    Speak for yourself, TSE!!
    I do not intend to dream about Eric Pickles, ever.
    Thank goodness for that!
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    @LabourList: We've updated the @andyburnhammp blogpost with higher resolution images of the CQC emails http://t.co/rXQ2IrvDUI

    Hunt made it up.

    Burnham has got to piss or get off the pot. Sue or be damned.

    Just whinging makes him look as weak as his leader.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Nice to see Hans Zimmer get an Outstanding Contribution to Music award at the Classical Brits.

    Sunil

    Zimmer was always in the frame.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    @Tim - are these the emails which Steve Barclay had called for by a FOI request.

    He has implied that he had applied for more from Jan and Feb 2010.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    edited October 2013
    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    @LabourList: We've updated the @andyburnhammp blogpost with higher resolution images of the CQC emails http://t.co/rXQ2IrvDUI

    Hunt made it up.

    Burnham has got to piss or get off the pot. Sue or be damned.

    Just whinging makes him look as weak as his leader.

    Writing your entire case of LabourList certainly seems like the actions of someone about to commence legal proceedings...

    Can Burnham now not sue without it appearing as an admission that the accusation is true?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    TSE Unfortunately Adam Afryie does not realise the 'British Obama' slot is already taken by Chuka Umunna
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited October 2013
    maaarsh said:

    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    @LabourList: We've updated the @andyburnhammp blogpost with higher resolution images of the CQC emails http://t.co/rXQ2IrvDUI

    Hunt made it up.

    Burnham has got to piss or get off the pot. Sue or be damned.

    Just whinging makes him look as weak as his leader.

    Writing your entire case of LabourList certainly seems like the actions of someone about to commence legal proceedings...

    Can Burnham now not sue without it appearing as an admission that the accusation is true?
    Quite right, maarsh.

    The hole Burnham is digging just got deeper.

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited October 2013
    Fall in Labour share for Cabinet Ministers in 2010


    Douglas Alexander +7% (swing 3.3 from SNP to Lab)
    Jim Murphy +6.9% (swing 3.2% Con to Lab)
    Jack Straw +5.7 (swing 1.1 from Con to Lab)
    Lyam Byrne +5.1 (swing 3.6 from LD to Lab)
    Alistair Darling +3.0 (swing 1.0 to Lab)
    Tessa Jowell +2.3 (swing 0.8% to LD)
    Shaun Woodward -2.7 (swing 1.9% to LD)
    Ed Miliband -3.8 (swing 2.8 to Con)
    Ben Bradshaw - 4 (swing 6% to Con)
    Harriet Harman -4.1 (swing 3 to LD)
    UK -6.2
    Peter Hain -6.3 (swing 4.6 to Plaid)
    Andy Burnham -6.5 (swing 4.9 to Con)
    Bob Ainsworth -7.6 (swing 5.5% to Con)
    Ed Balls -8.4 (swing 9.3% to Con)
    David Miliband -8.8 (swing 6.4 to Con)
    Hilary Benn -10.2 (swing 4.8 to LD)
    John Denham -11.5 (swing 10.3 to Con)
    Alan Johnson -12.6 (swing 7.9 to Con)
    Yvette Cooper -17.1 (swing 12.5% to Con)


    The top performances seem to be related to being in Scotland or in Asian dominated seats (recover from Iraq 2005 slippage). Some were prominent by a decade, so any increase due to being well known should have passed by then though.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    John

    Care to point out any polling from just before the general election showing the Tories walking it in the marginals?
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    It has occurred to me that PB.com can get a bit lost when there is nothing to bet on.

    I have a suggestion. A PB dictionary.

    I already have one in the locker.

    Lagershed: The period of time, after 9 pm, when alcohol-fuelled PBers talk more nonsense than usual.

    Here is another suggestion for the dictionary. (Btw I am 52 years old).

    Lingering: Continuing to exist and express an opinion beyond the age of 50.
  • AveryLP said:



    The hole Burnham is digging just got deeper.

    Assuming he didn't sanction this whole Burnham circus, Miliband must be livid. My hunch is that Burnham will be forced to back down, but he's demeaned himself and left Labour's status as the 'party of health' teetering on the brink. I'm struggling to think how Ed can sort this mess out cleanly if at all.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    stjohn said:

    It has occurred to me that PB.com can get a bit lost when there is nothing to bet on.

    I have a suggestion. A PB dictionary.

    I already have one in the locker.

    Lagershed: The period of time, after 9 pm, when alcohol-fuelled PBers talk more nonsense than usual.

    Here is another suggestion for the dictionary. (Btw I am 52 years old).

    Lingering: Continuing to exist and express an opinion beyond the age of 50.

    You mean 9am, surely?
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    RobD said:

    stjohn said:

    It has occurred to me that PB.com can get a bit lost when there is nothing to bet on.

    I have a suggestion. A PB dictionary.

    I already have one in the locker.

    Lagershed: The period of time, after 9 pm, when alcohol-fuelled PBers talk more nonsense than usual.

    Here is another suggestion for the dictionary. (Btw I am 52 years old).

    Lingering: Continuing to exist and express an opinion beyond the age of 50.

    You mean 9am, surely?
    :-)
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Lagershed?

    Do not be ridiculous. at 2100 PB gentlemen are retiring to the computer room for whisky and cigars. Lager sounds suspiciously EU, and thereby infra dig.
    stjohn said:

    It has occurred to me that PB.com can get a bit lost when there is nothing to bet on.

    I have a suggestion. A PB dictionary.

    I already have one in the locker.

    Lagershed: The period of time, after 9 pm, when alcohol-fuelled PBers talk more nonsense than usual.

    Here is another suggestion for the dictionary. (Btw I am 52 years old).

    Lingering: Continuing to exist and express an opinion beyond the age of 50.

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Stark is someone like John O who just likes to ignore polling.

    Labour is miles and miles and miles ahead of the Tories on health. We always are and we always will be Stark, despite what you type on here wishing it were true.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    There has to be a PB definition of a cigar, surely?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    I think that Adam Afriyie's earlier behaviour is all the more reprehensible now that we know a Conservative reshuffle is now under way.

    And Dave, can you reshuffle Adam Afriyie, make him British Ambassador to The Sudan or Afghanistan.

    If Adam Afriyie loses Windsor at the next election, I'm calling it a Tory Gain.

  • If anyone wants to see a different focus group and normal peoples reaction to Ed Milliband, then you should watch last weeks episode of Gogglebox on channel 4, where they film people watching last weeks TV shows. (it's pretty funny). They had a short bit of Ed trying to explain his energy price freeze on BBC news. It's on about the 20 minute mark of the programme.

    No one liked him or trusted and did not believe anything he said.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    edited October 2013
    SeanT said:



    If she makes Cabinet, I suspect you are somewhat f*cked in terms of returning? Few constituencies sack a Cabinet Minister.

    It must be a weird feeling for you.

    Speaking in generalities, Ministers who are already known to be good constituency MPs are I think fine when promoted (Ken Clarke is a good example). Those locally thought to have a problem in speed of response and interest in local affairs risk reinforcing it.

    We're canvassing for 8 hours every weekend, distributing leaflets, and various other things. If the Conservatives are doing anything in the ground war, we've not noticed - for example, they've not contributed to the main local paper for about 4 months now, even though it has a page open to all parties and everyone else uses it. My impression is that they've just collectively shrugged and reckon the national swing will decide it, que sera sera.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited October 2013
    "Why I’m considering legal action against Jeremy Hunt"
    The headline of that article sums up the size of the political hole Andy Burnham continues to dig for himself tonight. Starkey is right, Ed Miliband will be livid that Andy Burnham is yet again acting as a maverick in a Labour Shadow Cabinet already too full of them. I know that the Labour party are desperate to hang onto their long held position of being the party of the NHS, but dragging this row out will continue to undermine that fact rather than enhance it.
    AveryLP said:

    maaarsh said:

    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    @LabourList: We've updated the @andyburnhammp blogpost with higher resolution images of the CQC emails http://t.co/rXQ2IrvDUI

    Hunt made it up.

    Burnham has got to piss or get off the pot. Sue or be damned.

    Just whinging makes him look as weak as his leader.

    Writing your entire case of LabourList certainly seems like the actions of someone about to commence legal proceedings...

    Can Burnham now not sue without it appearing as an admission that the accusation is true?
    Quite right, maarsh.

    The hole Burnham is digging just got deeper.

    AveryLP said:



    The hole Burnham is digging just got deeper.

    Assuming he didn't sanction this whole Burnham circus, Miliband must be livid. My hunch is that Burnham will be forced to back down, but he's demeaned himself and left Labour's status as the 'party of health' teetering on the brink. I'm struggling to think how Ed can sort this mess out cleanly if at all.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited October 2013
    NickP, I think that you do yourself no favours when you try to use this forum to undermine your opponent in Broxtowe in this way. You have form for a similarly themed campaign against Anna Soubry here in the run up to the last GE as well, which kind of makes a mockery of your claim to be promoting positive politics on your blog. Just maybe the constituents of Broxtowe might feel vindicated in their choice of MP if they see her being regarded as a talent who deserves to be fast tracked into Government in her first term as an MP. It will also make the impression her Labour opponent is trying to convey that she isn't a hard working constituency MP far harder to stick this time around.

    SeanT said:



    If she makes Cabinet, I suspect you are somewhat f*cked in terms of returning? Few constituencies sack a Cabinet Minister.

    It must be a weird feeling for you.

    Speaking in generalities, Ministers who are already known to be good constituency MPs are I think fine when promoted (Ken Clarke is a good example). Those locally thought to have a problem in speed of response and interest in local affairs risk reinforcing it.

    We're canvassing for 8 hours every weekend, distributing leaflets, and various other things. If the Conservatives are doing anything in the ground war, we've not noticed - for example, they've not contributed to the main local paper for about 4 months now, even though it has a page open to all parties and everyone else uses it. My impression is that they've just collectively shrugged and reckon the national swing will decide it, que sera sera.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Come on Dave. Shuffle Hague out and Mitchell to Foreign Sec. Thanks.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    What's Homeland?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited October 2013
    Andy, Homeland is a very popular American drama series.
    AndyJS said:

    What's Homeland?

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited October 2013
    I'd intervene across British industry if I become PM, says Miliband: Labour leader reveals he is prepared to get state involved if justified

    Mr Miliband says he wants to 'make markets work in the public interest'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2447975/Id-intervene-British-industry-I-PM-says-Miliband-Labour-leader-reveals-prepared-state-involved-justified.html

    It isn't quite what he said looking at the quotes, but then he didn't quite say "we are bringing socalism back" either (but didn't try very hard to correct the record).

    What he does say, it is clear PM Ed certainly would consider intervening a lot more markets than just power.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    I feel hamstrung by multiple law suits :)

    FPT:

    tim said:

    Looks like the "sorry I couldn't get you your missile strikes but I'll promote some women if you insist" reshuffle is underway

    Is that Cameron or Miliband?

    Or is Miliband hamstrung by a pending law suit?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    AndyJS said:

    What's Homeland?

    It's what Ukippers call England.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122
    tim said:

    Looks like another gift from Osborne for his city mates

    "Last minute dash for Royal Mail shares as City speculators set to make millions"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/royal-mail/10359459/Last-minute-dash-for-Royal-Mail-shares-as-City-speculators-set-to-make-millions.html



    DAILY MAIL COMMENT: Taxpayers, fat cats and a Royal Mail sell-out


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2447491/DAILY-MAIL-COMMENT-Taxpayers-fat-cats-Royal-Mail-sell-out.html#ixzz2h0nyY4Ek


    And thats the right wing press.

    LOL - We know about your high opinion of the Mail - when it suits you.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    Looks like another gift from Osborne for his city mates

    "Last minute dash for Royal Mail shares as City speculators set to make millions"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/royal-mail/10359459/Last-minute-dash-for-Royal-Mail-shares-as-City-speculators-set-to-make-millions.html



    DAILY MAIL COMMENT: Taxpayers, fat cats and a Royal Mail sell-out


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2447491/DAILY-MAIL-COMMENT-Taxpayers-fat-cats-Royal-Mail-sell-out.html#ixzz2h0nyY4Ek


    And thats the right wing press.

    Of course it is just ordinary people's pension funds that will make the profits.

    "City speculators" in the main invest on behalf of other people, not themselves.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @tim

    The "gift" is from the taxpayers to Royal Mail employees. Most generous to be sure.
This discussion has been closed.