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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Video Analysis: What Chance a US-UK Free Trade Deal
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Video Analysis: What Chance a US-UK Free Trade Deal
Brexit is approaching. And with it – in President Trump’s mind – comes an opportunity for a transatlantic free trade deal, bringing together the World’s two largest English speaking democracies. Atlantacists in Britain are excited, those who believe we should be supping with the Europeans are scared.
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A point to add, perhaps, is that an FTA with America could not actually be that much better than we already have as members of the EU. There is no EU/US FTA but generally tariffs are low (except when hiked by the president to MAGA) so there is not much to be gained, and that is true in both directions.
There are more non-tariff barriers but as RCS's video explains, we probably quite like those. And if an FTA includes so-called local content rules (or almost any rules) then there will have to be customs inspections to check those rules are met, which makes trade just a bit slower and more expensive.
But suppose we could agree a magical FTA with the United States that is balanced in our favour, not theirs, well, so what? America is bleeding miles away and so will never match the trade volumes we have with European nations. Even this hypothetical FTA could not compensate for the harm that will be done by Brexit in making trade with the EU slower and more expensive.
On the substance, I suspect the benefit of 'independent trade deals' was oversold by LEAVE. And looks like Canada will be able to remove those US petrol additives and label GM foods as Trump excludes them from NAFTA.....
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1036023767489814528
We could end up with worse, given our more limited negotiating power. The US will want a deal that suits itself, even before factoring Trump and his posturing.
Pineapple on pizza, yes or no?
Secondly, May made a disastrous mistake in December on the backstop. She is too stubborn to admit she was played by Barnier. So she will go to her grave saying that the NI border issue makes genuine Brexit impossible. But it is a lie and always has been a lie. The backstop is just the mechanism for the EU to get whatever it wants in the withdrawal agreement and then reverse all its promises on the trade agreement on the grounds that it doesn’t solve NI.
Only a traitor, or a moron, enters a negotiation by saying that the opponent can have a backstop that gives them everything they want if there is no agreement. Your call as to which.
https://amp.economist.com/britain/2018/09/01/britains-new-generation-of-soldier-statesmen?__twitter_impression=true
JMcC's record as a Buckeye squadron commander AFTER he'd been nearly killed on the Forrestal and in that bamboo cage for 5+ years was excellent.
He was possibly (probably) reckless as a junior pilot but the best of us always were. As a lowly S/Lt I once decided to give my parents' house in North Yorkshire a fly by in a Hawk one Sunday morning. And, according to my mother, "flew past the kitchen window".
I'm not all that fussed about a deal with the US. We seem to trade with them just fine as it is.
The third one is just superb.
There are lots of reasons to take the piss out of MPs. Their filing is probably in the bottom ten percent.
Yet he advocated Leave, didn't he?
So, can I be reminded about the advantages?
Truth is Nazanin was born in Iran so prominent/powerful types prone to nationalism ignored her plight. We needed Corbyn, we needed Khan but nah, they don’t wanna upset the mullahs. I’ll probably delete this tweet because I’m writing in a state of full on emotion but it’s true.
Vettel win, Hamilton podium, Ricciardo top 6, Perez points, all together at 6.
I think the first three are pretty likely (Vettel is favourite for the win and I was considering backing Ricciardo to be top 6 and 1.9. Perez climbing from a Q1 departure to points might be tricky.
There's also Vettel win, Ricciardo top 6, Magnussen+Perez points and over 15.5 finishers, at 13. Magnussen and Perez both getting points is trickier still, especially with the finishers aspect.
Most likely BINO via a Transition agreement without an agreed FTA.
It just annoyed me further about the foolish proposal.
For better or worse (the choice of Palin, for example), never seemed to have lost that reckless streak.
Just wait until that becomes nearer the norm and the social provision needed
More important is healthy life expectancy, but that is also quite class dependent. Those of us who live longer, also are in better health in those later years:
https://twitter.com/HealthFdn/status/1036140425927634944?s=19
Though in the UK, life expectancy is dropping for some groups:
https://www.nhs.uk/news/medical-practice/uk-life-expectancy-drops-while-other-western-countries-improve/
That reducing life expectancy is worse in Leave voting areas, but that economic stress is probably the cause rather than the result of voting Leave.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/life-expectancy-uk-plumments-ons-data-hartlepool-torridge-amber-valley-barnsley-a8164171.html
A Brexit that fails to deliver for these areas is not likely to have many friends.
Best in Europe in my experience are Zurich, Helsinki, Hamburg and Schiphol.
Can I recommend the Isle of Wight instead?
It helps that I live 10 minutes from it!
Anyone fancy roast chlorinated chicken?
My granddaughter is a vegan and my family are consuming less meat as a whole
"Drugs were found 13,119 times in prisons in England and Wales last year, the paper said - the equivalent of more than 35 incidents per day and three times the amount as in 2014.
The Prison Officers Association (POA) said the value of the drug market in jail is around £100m"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45386076
Less meat, particularly red, is a good idea for anyone’s health, and while it’s possible to eat healthily as a vegan, it’s also quite easy for your diet to be deficient in key nutrients.
https://www.farminguk.com/News/Red-meat-and-dairy-good-for-a-healthy-diet-study-suggests_50143.html
The US forced Canada to stop labelling GMO produce, and may well insist on the same in any FTA here for GMOs chickens, hormone beef etc.
It’s not the chlorine that’s the problem, but the reason the chlorine is needed is. On the other hand, l take much more care over handling raw chicken than any other meat and always make sure it is fully cooked, as I’m not sure the chicken we get at the moment is much better.
The much bigger issue is the living conditions of the chickens before they are killed. We should not compromise on the highest standards there.
At the moment UK average life expectancy is 81 and worldwide it is 70.
I’m confused again.
I had assumed from noises off that we are close to a deal with with EU based on Chequers.
However I see there is now a large faction pushing for “EFTA then CETA”, with the backing of Gove.
Feels there are now four groups in the Tories.
Chequers (Mayites)
No deal ultras (Moggites)
EFTA then CETA (Goveites)
Remainers (Soubrettes).
Moggrodytes and Goveistas?
* A step up however from Theresa May's pitch that Brexit won't mean the end of the world.
https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/less-salmonella-organic-chicken_n_842703
I favour organic myself, and am a relatively light meat eater so can afford to do so. The issue for me with organics is that getting certification is quite bureaucratic and takes 3 years so more difficult for small producers to compete with agribusiness, particularly in developing countries. I therefore favour ordinary bananas and coffee over organic for example.
McCain's main differences with George W Bush had he won in 2000 would have been over campaign finance reform, not trying to push an amendment to define marriage as heterosexual only and not pushing big tax cuts for the rich and doing more on climate change
I no longer buy or eat chicken, partly for this reason and partly because it generally tastes of nothing at all.
I thought we had a trade surplus with the US. Why then all this agitation for an FTA? Surely the main thing the US, certainly under Trump, will want to do is reverse that in their favour and extend their jurisdiction over us in a way that would give IDS apoplexy were the ECJ to do it. So what’s the big deal?
We were then taken to the train, luggage put in the racks for us, and shown to our reserved seats, before the train was open to boarding by the public. They again helped us off in Colwyn Bay. Fabulous service
And no I am not Richard Branson
The problem I see is that whilst in the single market some parts of our industry, specifically cars, have become deeply integrated into the EU market. Cars are comfortably our biggest export (over 11% of all exports) but this is misleading as a significant proportion of that value is actually imports as well. This makes it very difficult for the likes of Range Rover, Aston Martin, etc to meet local content rules. The solution from our perspective is obvious: EU content should be included as UK content so far as any third party is concerned.
Why would a third party such as the US, Japan or China agree to that? Well, if they have free trade arrangements with the EU already then it is really a continuation of the status quo and there is no obvious prejudice to them although there is an opportunity to ask for something else in return. Of course in most big examples they don't have FTAs but there are a lot of countries that the EU does have trade agreements with that we should be looking to continue existing arrangements with on this basis. The fact that a complete idiot such as Fox is even nominally in charge of this process is a real concern. There has been very little evidence to date of such agreements being made.
So far as the US is concerned we currently have a trade surplus with them on our current terms. Last year 19% of all of our exports went to the US. The priority in the short term is surely to maintain that and existing arrangements as well as we can.
Point of order- isn't India the world's largest English speaking democracy?
https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1035176987176972288?s=19
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/21/two-in-three-chickens-sold-in-british-supermarkets-are-infected/
Yum!
My wife is in hospital with sepsis..
Canada, Australia and New Zealand are also larger, amongst many others. They are however less populous!
Time to go and enjoy Sunday worship. What a lovely day here in Leics.