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  • That's a very good point. There are a whole host of problems, intimidation being one of them.
  • Not sure if this was already reported on here, but...

    Enfield North MP Joan Ryan lost a vote of no confidence at a CLP meetimg last night. The motion of no confidence in its FIRST LINE describes here as "MP and Chair of Labour Friends of Israel". And the CLP reportedly allowed PRESS TV to live stream proceedings.

    "We want ahut of our MP because she's friends with Israel and we're allowimg in Jeremy's mates at Iranian state propaganda in to film it - the same Iran who wants to sweep Israel off the map into the sea. Nothing to see here Jews, nothing to see..."

    What. The. Actual. Fuck.

    That's a little too close to home for me. The boundary is just a few hundred yards from my front door.
  • George Osborne's student loans magic money tree might need watering.

    The ONS is wondering if student loans should be included in the accounts. £30bn write-offs? £100bn on the deficit? Think of a number, add the word billion, and that is how much Tories have been lying about the economy. I think that's the gist.

    How can you lend someone almost £120bn and not have a hole in your budget? Or how can you give out £17bn, only receive back £3bn and not be any worse off?

    When you're the government and it's the student loans system.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-45421621
  • Mr. Pioneers, the members are Corbynite. The leadership is Corbynite. Those opposed to him are being purged.

    If you're staying, your membership fees will be funding Corbyn and his ilk.

    You really think the Tories are so evil, compared to what Labour is now? It'd be ideal if you could reclaim the party for a non-insane variety of the left. But how is that going to happen? At what point do you say enough is enough?

    Genuinely. Where is your line in the sand for leaving Labour? I don't ask that accusingly or angrily, but curiously. There has to be a point where you either believe it's irretrievable for the sane left, or where something so horrendous happens you cannot stand to be in it.

    If decent moderates stay in, they lose their only chance to found a new party with a huge in-built advantage in seat numbers and short money. Sadly, it seems the moderate left has no place in Labour. It can evacuate and found a new party, and provide a sensible alternative for those on the left, or be purged, and leave the field almost entirely clear for Corbyn's far left lunacy.

    The country needs a sensible left wing alternative to the Conservatives.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 13,415

    wow

    AfD now number one party in East Germany at 27% ahead of Merkel who has dropped back to 23% Die Linke in thrid place on 18%

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article181445482/Deutschlandtrend-AfD-liegt-im-Osten-erstmals-vor-der-CDU.html

    I have to say this surprises me as Id thought the violence in Chemnitz would be a turn off, now it appears its what motivates the voters, Nuts

    Yes, it's a small subsample (300) and not clear if it's weighted but there's plenty of polling showing they're much stronger in the east than the west. The same poll does show a small overall drop in support (to 16%), as it fell in the west. Other findings indicate a chasm in confidence in institutions and the media - most West Germans trust the media (I wonder what the figure would be in the UK?), but only 29% do in the east.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,606
    Top tory agent Tony cracks an evil grin as he looks out on the wasteland of the Labour party

    Agent Blair reflects of a job well done

    Tony Blair says he is "not sure it is possible" for Labour "moderates" to take the party back from the left.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45438855

  • Mr. Pioneers, we'll see if there's a split. But if the moderate frogs don't jump soon, they'll be boiled.

    Starting a new party is difficult under FPTP but it's a hell of a lot easier if you're the official Opposition and have 100+ MPs to start with. If those MPs just retire, accept the Cult of Jezbollah, or are deselected, the major presence of the left in British politics won't be split. It'll just be so far to the left they think marching with hammers and sickles is normal human behaviour.

    Still, I'm sure Corbyn will lay a wreath for the fallen moderates.

    Its not the party thats the problem. Its the deranged entryist fucks who have swept in who think its solidarity to invite in fucking Press TV who can air a special of their meeting inbetween a programme explaining the evils of Israel and why it needs to be swept into the sea and why gay men need tl be persecuted and executed.

    We cannot leave. We will not leave. Because if we do these fuckwads hand the country to the Tories.
    I understand you see a Conservative government as being immoral and bad. On the other hand, you are supporting a party that is actively immoral and purposefully malignant to a minority in a way that hard right-wing Tories could only dream of.

    When faced (in your eyes) with two evils, support neither. Or support someone else. By supporting one, you are supporting their immorality and malignancy.

    The excuse of "the Tories are worse!" is arguable (and wrong IMO), but it is also allowing you to support persecution of a minority.
  • Mr. Brooke, there is/was much noise on Twitter about that. Photo of German police protecting Turkish restaurants did the rounds, with people angry that rozzers (or Das Rozzers) were available to protect shops but not German people. If people feel the institutions of the state don't serve their interests and protect them, and that the Establishment is disinterested or actively hostile, they'll move elsewhere.

    Be interesting to observe the psychological impact it has in the rest of Germany. Will it make those in the west of the country more averse to voicing concerns about migrants? Will it embolden marches and the like?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 29,014

    wow

    AfD now number one party in East Germany at 27% ahead of Merkel who has dropped back to 23% Die Linke in thrid place on 18%

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article181445482/Deutschlandtrend-AfD-liegt-im-Osten-erstmals-vor-der-CDU.html

    I have to say this surprises me as Id thought the violence in Chemnitz would be a turn off, now it appears its what motivates the voters, Nuts

    It's what happens when Enough is Enough gets turned into votes.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 64,440
    edited September 2018
    Former PM Tony Blair says it may not be possible for moderates to retake Labour, the party he once led, from the hard Left although he hopes that is not the case.

    He also suggests he does not think the public would tolerate a choice at the next general election between say Jeremy Corbyn and a hard line Brexiteer like Boris Johnson and that progressive, liberal voters who believe in the market and enterprise but also help for those who need it may look elsewhere which might require a new centrist party as a result


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45438855
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    George Osborne's student loans magic money tree might need watering.

    The ONS is wondering if student loans should be included in the accounts. £30bn write-offs? £100bn on the deficit? Think of a number, add the word billion, and that is how much Tories have been lying about the economy. I think that's the gist.

    How can you lend someone almost £120bn and not have a hole in your budget? Or how can you give out £17bn, only receive back £3bn and not be any worse off?

    When you're the government and it's the student loans system.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-45421621

    You are confusing deficit and debt.
    The system was always set up so most people wouldn’t pay it off. It’s biggest failure was in naming and marketing. It’s not really a loan but a graduate contribution system with an end point. The government have raised the repayment threshold,d to £25k and linked it to earnings. It is in effect a graduate tax.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 29,014

    Mr. Pioneers, the members are Corbynite. The leadership is Corbynite. Those opposed to him are being purged.

    If you're staying, your membership fees will be funding Corbyn and his ilk.

    You really think the Tories are so evil, compared to what Labour is now? It'd be ideal if you could reclaim the party for a non-insane variety of the left. But how is that going to happen? At what point do you say enough is enough?

    Genuinely. Where is your line in the sand for leaving Labour? I don't ask that accusingly or angrily, but curiously. There has to be a point where you either believe it's irretrievable for the sane left, or where something so horrendous happens you cannot stand to be in it.

    If decent moderates stay in, they lose their only chance to found a new party with a huge in-built advantage in seat numbers and short money. Sadly, it seems the moderate left has no place in Labour. It can evacuate and found a new party, and provide a sensible alternative for those on the left, or be purged, and leave the field almost entirely clear for Corbyn's far left lunacy.

    The country needs a sensible left wing alternative to the Conservatives.

    Left wing is never sensible. Sensible centre-left is what is needed.

    A new Tony Blair. (Preferably without the war-mongering tendencies...)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,923

    George Osborne's student loans magic money tree might need watering.

    The ONS is wondering if student loans should be included in the accounts. £30bn write-offs? £100bn on the deficit? Think of a number, add the word billion, and that is how much Tories have been lying about the economy. I think that's the gist.

    How can you lend someone almost £120bn and not have a hole in your budget? Or how can you give out £17bn, only receive back £3bn and not be any worse off?

    When you're the government and it's the student loans system.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-45421621

    I think you mean add £118bn to the debt, but it's a fair point. Of course, under Corbyn, some of it very much would be part of the figures as they wouldn't be expecting the tuition fees loan to be paid back.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,606

    mid term blues ?

    74% of french voters think Macron has got off to a bad start in this parliamentary session

    support dips

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2018/09/06/01002-20180906ARTFIG00331-plus-de-7-francais-sur-10-jugent-que-macron-a-effectue-une-mauvaise-rentree.php
  • Note that Joan Ryan is the first example so far to fall victim to the mob without being a Leaver. @RochdalePioneers has maintained that a Labour MP needs both to fall foul of the Corbynistas and to support Brexit to run into trouble. I believe he is right that that has been the case up till now, but I think that, as the mob overruns even more of the party, just the former will suffice. We'll see more examples.

    Was out last night so just catching up.

    For clarity you have reached that inference but that isn't what I said. The Kali Ma hate mob on Facebook have been screaming about "the 172" and the "chicken coupers" for a couple of years. If they have the chance they will purge all 172 regardless of how they voted on Brexit.

    Frank Field and Kate Hoey were just the test targets, with the "you could have voted down the Tory government" argument their toe in the water.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,621
    Mr Pioneers,

    The Trots have always been a small group in Labour and manageable when diluted. It's when they reach a critical mass, the fun starts. The echo chamber effect makes them compete with each other for who can shock most. Apart from being childish, it turns off the voters.

    Declaring martial law and stopping them congregating is the only solution, but that would be undemocratic.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 64,440
    By which time she will have agreed the withdrawal agreement and transition period with the EU in all likelihood ensuring she stays until next March to get it through and given the lack of acceptable alternatives to MPs possibly now for years beyond.

    May can say she is the only thing stopping a Corbyn v Boris/Mogg next general election
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 64,440
    CD13 said:

    Mr Pioneers,

    The Trots have always been a small group in Labour and manageable when diluted. It's when they reach a critical mass, the fun starts. The echo chamber effect makes them compete with each other for who can shock most. Apart from being childish, it turns off the voters.

    Declaring martial law and stopping them congregating is the only solution, but that would be undemocratic.

    Without some former 2017 Tory voters Corbyn will not be PM
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 55,729

    Off-topic:

    In the latest instalment of the Elon Musk saga, Joe Rogan has Musk smoking a spliff during a livestream.

    I *really* hope he doesn't go back into the office to work. And stays off Twitter ...

    How long has the stream been going for, still live I think
  • HYUFD said:

    By which time she will have agreed the withdrawal agreement and transition period with the EU in all likelihood ensuring she stays until next March to get it through and given the lack of acceptable alternatives to MPs possibly now for years beyond.

    May can say she is the only thing stopping a Corbyn v Boris/Mogg next general election
    Precisely - the Conference was their very last opportunity (in truth it was probably already too late) to stop May - giving her a 'stay of execution' is just an excuse for 'we haven't got the numbers now, maybe we will later'.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,600
    I don't see why any local membership shouldn't take to task an MP who is a 'Friend of Israel' if they find it a racist state or even just disapprove of their illegal settlements or even their 'Jewish Naion State Law' which is apartheid however that word is defined. Or perhaps they just think their MP shouldn't be taking freeby trips or maybe they just believe that their MP should devote their time to their constitents?
  • notme said:

    George Osborne's student loans magic money tree might need watering.

    The ONS is wondering if student loans should be included in the accounts. £30bn write-offs? £100bn on the deficit? Think of a number, add the word billion, and that is how much Tories have been lying about the economy. I think that's the gist.

    How can you lend someone almost £120bn and not have a hole in your budget? Or how can you give out £17bn, only receive back £3bn and not be any worse off?

    When you're the government and it's the student loans system.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-45421621

    You are confusing deficit and debt.
    The system was always set up so most people wouldn’t pay it off. It’s biggest failure was in naming and marketing. It’s not really a loan but a graduate contribution system with an end point. The government have raised the repayment threshold,d to £25k and linked it to earnings. It is in effect a graduate tax.

    No, I'm not confusing deficit and debt. Yes, it is a modified graduate tax because Osborne would not accept an actual tax and managed to blame Willetts for the resulting dog's breakfast. All that aside, it is a mess. And it is off the books. The ONS should complete its review by Christmas.

    Ironically, the idea of income contingent loans does seem quite a good one that could be applied in other areas, but not necessarily for students. Film subsidies, to take a topical example.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Off-topic:

    In the latest instalment of the Elon Musk saga, Joe Rogan has Musk smoking a spliff during a livestream.

    I *really* hope he doesn't go back into the office to work. And stays off Twitter ...

    How long has the stream been going for, still live I think
    A couple of hours - I only saw the last half-hour or so, and it's just ended.

    From what I saw, it'll appeal to the fanbois, and rather dismay the businessfolk. In places it was a bit bizarre.
  • Roger said:

    Or perhaps they just think their MP shouldn't be taking freeby trips or maybe they just believe that their MP should devote their time to their constitents?
    Magic Grandpa & Palestine Conferences (and wreath laying ceremonies...)?
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,316
    Roger said:

    I don't see why any local membership shouldn't take to task an MP who is a 'Friend of Israel' if they find it a racist state or even just disapprove of their illegal settlements or even their 'Jewish Naion State Law' which is apartheid however that word is defined. Or perhaps they just think their MP shouldn't be taking freeby trips or maybe they just believe that their MP should devote their time to their constitents?
    Yet work hand in glove with Iran to do so?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,606

    wow

    AfD now number one party in East Germany at 27% ahead of Merkel who has dropped back to 23% Die Linke in thrid place on 18%

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article181445482/Deutschlandtrend-AfD-liegt-im-Osten-erstmals-vor-der-CDU.html

    I have to say this surprises me as Id thought the violence in Chemnitz would be a turn off, now it appears its what motivates the voters, Nuts

    Yes, it's a small subsample (300) and not clear if it's weighted but there's plenty of polling showing they're much stronger in the east than the west. The same poll does show a small overall drop in support (to 16%), as it fell in the west. Other findings indicate a chasm in confidence in institutions and the media - most West Germans trust the media (I wonder what the figure would be in the UK?), but only 29% do in the east.
    Nick youve been giving me this salami slicing argument for the last year. The issue is the trend which has seen the AfD and Die Linke on the growth path. To me two things are clear

    the east is voting very differently to the west - Im genuinely surprised the the two extreme parties are upping their vote as they are at the centre of the confrontations in Chemnitz

    The coalition parties are losing support with the SPD being hollowed out and and the CDU being strangled by a lame duck leader



  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,923

    notme said:

    George Osborne's student loans magic money tree might need watering.

    The ONS is wondering if student loans should be included in the accounts. £30bn write-offs? £100bn on the deficit? Think of a number, add the word billion, and that is how much Tories have been lying about the economy. I think that's the gist.

    How can you lend someone almost £120bn and not have a hole in your budget? Or how can you give out £17bn, only receive back £3bn and not be any worse off?

    When you're the government and it's the student loans system.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-45421621

    You are confusing deficit and debt.
    The system was always set up so most people wouldn’t pay it off. It’s biggest failure was in naming and marketing. It’s not really a loan but a graduate contribution system with an end point. The government have raised the repayment threshold,d to £25k and linked it to earnings. It is in effect a graduate tax.

    No, I'm not confusing deficit and debt. Yes, it is a modified graduate tax because Osborne would not accept an actual tax and managed to blame Willetts for the resulting dog's breakfast. All that aside, it is a mess. And it is off the books. The ONS should complete its review by Christmas.

    Ironically, the idea of income contingent loans does seem quite a good one that could be applied in other areas, but not necessarily for students. Film subsidies, to take a topical example.
    Yes you are confusing debt and deficit. We are not lending £100bn each year:

    http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01079/SN01079.pdf
  • Roger said:

    I don't see why any local membership shouldn't take to task an MP who is a 'Friend of Israel' if they find it a racist state or even just disapprove of their illegal settlements or even their 'Jewish Naion State Law' which is apartheid however that word is defined. Or perhaps they just think their MP shouldn't be taking freeby trips or maybe they just believe that their MP should devote their time to their constitents?
    I wonder if any of Corbyn's constituents think he should devote more of his time to them, and not to gallivanting around the Middle East talking to both sides talking to one side?

    All the things you mention about Israel can be condemned. It's a shame that he, and it seems you, won't condemn the Palestinian authorities for the bad things they do. In fact, all the other regional actors as well.

    It's a complex, messy and hideous situation, but Israel's actions do not occur in a vacuum.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,606
    It's your party and you can cry if you want to

  • Brexit negotiators on both sides of the Channel risk “sleepwalking into a major crisis” that could poison relations for a generation, the UK’s former ambassador to the European Union Sir Ivan Rogers, has warned.

    In a speech to the British Irish Chambers of Commerce in Dublin, he urged EU leaders to move beyond a technocratic approach to Brexit and give serious thought to “the British question” or risk “endless toxic running battles”.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/06/brexit-negotiators-risk-sleepwalking-into-crisis-warns-ivan-rogers?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
  • Mr. Pioneers, we'll see if there's a split. But if the moderate frogs don't jump soon, they'll be boiled.

    Starting a new party is difficult under FPTP but it's a hell of a lot easier if you're the official Opposition and have 100+ MPs to start with. If those MPs just retire, accept the Cult of Jezbollah, or are deselected, the major presence of the left in British politics won't be split. It'll just be so far to the left they think marching with hammers and sickles is normal human behaviour.

    Still, I'm sure Corbyn will lay a wreath for the fallen moderates.

    Its not the party thats the problem. Its the deranged entryist fucks who have swept in who think its solidarity to invite in fucking Press TV who can air a special of their meeting inbetween a programme explaining the evils of Israel and why it needs to be swept into the sea and why gay men need tl be persecuted and executed.

    We cannot leave. We will not leave. Because if we do these fuckwads hand the country to the Tories.
    It's too late.
    Join us in the North East Party and help build a reasonable progressive alternative.
  • Mr. Pioneers, we'll see if there's a split. But if the moderate frogs don't jump soon, they'll be boiled.

    Starting a new party is difficult under FPTP but it's a hell of a lot easier if you're the official Opposition and have 100+ MPs to start with. If those MPs just retire, accept the Cult of Jezbollah, or are deselected, the major presence of the left in British politics won't be split. It'll just be so far to the left they think marching with hammers and sickles is normal human behaviour.

    Still, I'm sure Corbyn will lay a wreath for the fallen moderates.

    Its not the party thats the problem. Its the deranged entryist fucks who have swept in who think its solidarity to invite in fucking Press TV who can air a special of their meeting inbetween a programme explaining the evils of Israel and why it needs to be swept into the sea and why gay men need tl be persecuted and executed.

    We cannot leave. We will not leave. Because if we do these fuckwads hand the country to the Tories.
    It's too late.
    Join us in the North East Party and help build a reasonable progressive alternative.
    Build a Tory majority having split the left you mean
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    notme said:

    George Osborne's student loans magic money tree might need watering.

    The ONS is wondering if student loans should be included in the accounts. £30bn write-offs? £100bn on the deficit? Think of a number, add the word billion, and that is how much Tories have been lying about the economy. I think that's the gist.

    How can you lend someone almost £120bn and not have a hole in your budget? Or how can you give out £17bn, only receive back £3bn and not be any worse off?

    When you're the government and it's the student loans system.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-45421621

    You are confusing deficit and debt.
    The system was always set up so most people wouldn’t pay it off. It’s biggest failure was in naming and marketing. It’s not really a loan but a graduate contribution system with an end point. The government have raised the repayment threshold,d to £25k and linked it to earnings. It is in effect a graduate tax.

    No, I'm not confusing deficit and debt. Yes, it is a modified graduate tax because Osborne would not accept an actual tax and managed to blame Willetts for the resulting dog's breakfast. All that aside, it is a mess. And it is off the books. The ONS should complete its review by Christmas.

    Ironically, the idea of income contingent loans does seem quite a good one that could be applied in other areas, but not necessarily for students. Film subsidies, to take a topical example.
    To add £100 billion to the deficit would require that amount of student debt to be added each year. At a guess of 500,000 students graduating each year, it would need each student to leave with £200,000 of debt and assume they never pay any of it off.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 55,729

    Pulpstar said:

    Off-topic:

    In the latest instalment of the Elon Musk saga, Joe Rogan has Musk smoking a spliff during a livestream.

    I *really* hope he doesn't go back into the office to work. And stays off Twitter ...

    How long has the stream been going for, still live I think
    A couple of hours - I only saw the last half-hour or so, and it's just ended.

    From what I saw, it'll appeal to the fanbois, and rather dismay the businessfolk. In places it was a bit bizarre.
    Will have to watch, I'm a fanboi (With the diver caveat) but Tesla isn't a stock I'd hold directly right now
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,668

    You can't trust a man who betrays his wife, because if he can betray his wife he can quite easily betray his country.

    Socially conservative Tory members won't vote for Boris, even if he makes it into the final two.

    Lay Boris like one of his many many mistresses.

    Perhaps Boris could pack it in altogether if he gives up on ever being PM?
    Thing you need to remember about Boris is he is utterly self interested and completely amoral.

    Politics is about being PM. If that’s not possible then Uxbridge is of no use to him.

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see him resign as an MP just as soon as a better offer comes along. Equally he’ll stay in place as long as it’s useful - gives him a profile which may help with the job offers...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,668



    You can't trust a man who betrays his wife, because if he can betray his wife he can quite easily betray his country.

    Socially conservative Tory members won't vote for Boris, even if he makes it into the final two.

    Lay Boris like one of his many many mistresses.

    Perhaps Boris could pack it in altogether if he gives up on ever being PM?
    Journalism beckons
    Job swap with the editor of a London freesheet?
  • Boris Johnson's price for next Prime Minister and next Conservative leader has drifted overnight. For what it's worth, I think this is exactly the wrong reaction to the Sun exclusive. It's hardly news that Boris Johnson can't keep his flies zipped up. But the story breaking at a time when the news can safely be got out of the way suggests that he is clearing the decks for a leadership bid.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,621
    Frank Field signed Corbyn's nomination form to allow the hard-left's voice to be heard. Once in power, their first priority is to silence other voices.

    As expected.


  • Charles said:

    You can't trust a man who betrays his wife, because if he can betray his wife he can quite easily betray his country.

    Socially conservative Tory members won't vote for Boris, even if he makes it into the final two.

    Lay Boris like one of his many many mistresses.

    Perhaps Boris could pack it in altogether if he gives up on ever being PM?
    Thing you need to remember about Boris is he is utterly self interested and completely amoral.

    Politics is about being PM. If that’s not possible then Uxbridge is of no use to him.

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see him resign as an MP just as soon as a better offer comes along. Equally he’ll stay in place as long as it’s useful - gives him a profile which may help with the job offers...
    I too suspect we may see an Uxbridge by-election before the Parliament is out.

    Wonder what his lunch 9at a very conspicuous restaurant) with the Chief Whip was about yesterday.....
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,606

    Mr. Brooke, there is/was much noise on Twitter about that. Photo of German police protecting Turkish restaurants did the rounds, with people angry that rozzers (or Das Rozzers) were available to protect shops but not German people. If people feel the institutions of the state don't serve their interests and protect them, and that the Establishment is disinterested or actively hostile, they'll move elsewhere.

    Be interesting to observe the psychological impact it has in the rest of Germany. Will it make those in the west of the country more averse to voicing concerns about migrants? Will it embolden marches and the like?

    East and West Germany are two different countries in outlook and thats after almost 30 years

    the East is suffering mostly from a lack of hope imo, the towns are depopulating, the young and gifted are leaving. Now Merkel wants to dump a migrant problem of her own creation on top of them and their saying enough.

    While the West has been taking in Gastarbeiter for the best part of 70 years the only non europeans the East saw were students from 3rd communist countries and a handful of Vietnamese workers on loan to building sites. The sudden culture clash is one Merkel should have foreseen since she;s an easterner herself and represents an eastern constituency.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Brexit negotiators on both sides of the Channel risk “sleepwalking into a major crisis” that could poison relations for a generation, the UK’s former ambassador to the European Union Sir Ivan Rogers, has warned.

    In a speech to the British Irish Chambers of Commerce in Dublin, he urged EU leaders to move beyond a technocratic approach to Brexit and give serious thought to “the British question” or risk “endless toxic running battles”.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/06/brexit-negotiators-risk-sleepwalking-into-crisis-warns-ivan-rogers?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    I think there is a serious of risk of a very damaging post Brexit relationship. Those who have gone through a divorce will know, no matter how amicable it starts, you soon end up in heated arguments about who gets the dyson.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 13,415

    wow

    AfD now number one party in East Germany at 27% ahead of Merkel who has dropped back to 23% Die Linke in thrid place on 18%

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article181445482/Deutschlandtrend-AfD-liegt-im-Osten-erstmals-vor-der-CDU.html

    I have to say this surprises me as Id thought the violence in Chemnitz would be a turn off, now it appears its what motivates the voters, Nuts

    Yes, it's a small subsample (300) and not clear if it's weighted but there's plenty of polling showing they're much stronger in the east than the west. The same poll does show a small overall drop in support (to 16%), as it fell in the west. Other findings indicate a chasm in confidence in institutions and the media - most West Germans trust the media (I wonder what the figure would be in the UK?), but only 29% do in the east.
    Nick youve been giving me this salami slicing argument for the last year. The issue is the trend which has seen the AfD and Die Linke on the growth path. To me two things are clear

    the east is voting very differently to the west - Im genuinely surprised the the two extreme parties are upping their vote as they are at the centre of the confrontations in Chemnitz

    The coalition parties are losing support with the SPD being hollowed out and and the CDU being strangled by a lame duck leader



    I don't think the Left Party is going anywhere, honestly - it's the Greens who are really benefiting from being a centre-left party in opposition, though possibly the Stand Up movement will controversially introduce a new populist dynamism on the far left -they're potentially a split in the Left, but with PR that can work. On the right, the AfD is around 4% up on the election and the governing parties are both around 2% down. Anyway, here are all the recent figures, so people judge for themselves:

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    Note that INSA nearly always shows slightly higher figures for the extreme parties and Allensbach nearly always shows slightly lower ones (no idea why, or who's right).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 64,440

    HYUFD said:

    By which time she will have agreed the withdrawal agreement and transition period with the EU in all likelihood ensuring she stays until next March to get it through and given the lack of acceptable alternatives to MPs possibly now for years beyond.

    May can say she is the only thing stopping a Corbyn v Boris/Mogg next general election
    Precisely - the Conference was their very last opportunity (in truth it was probably already too late) to stop May - giving her a 'stay of execution' is just an excuse for 'we haven't got the numbers now, maybe we will later'.
    Indeed, it is increasingly possible now May will lead the Tories through to the next general election given the strong possibility that if she went Boris or Mogg would replace her
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,600

    Roger said:

    Or perhaps they just think their MP shouldn't be taking freeby trips or maybe they just believe that their MP should devote their time to their constitents?
    Magic Grandpa & Palestine Conferences (and wreath laying ceremonies...)?
    Palestinians have been given a very poor shake of the dice. It is incumbent on all good Socialists to turn towards the downtrodden first. There was a time when the Jews who fled to Israel with the intention of survival fulfilled that role That ceased to be the case decades ago and now the oppressed have become the oppressors.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 12,047
    Remember that incredibly tricky "lawyerly trick" question that Kavanaugh was asked during the confirmation hearing, the one where Kavanaugh acted like he'd never even heard of the law firm?

    Turns out he's close friends with an attorney who works at the firm.

    The Republicans really are still sore about Bork and are looking to settle scores.
  • tlg86 said:

    notme said:

    George Osborne's student loans magic money tree might need watering.

    The ONS is wondering if student loans should be included in the accounts. £30bn write-offs? £100bn on the deficit? Think of a number, add the word billion, and that is how much Tories have been lying about the economy. I think that's the gist.

    How can you lend someone almost £120bn and not have a hole in your budget? Or how can you give out £17bn, only receive back £3bn and not be any worse off?

    When you're the government and it's the student loans system.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-45421621

    You are confusing deficit and debt.
    The system was always set up so most people wouldn’t pay it off. It’s biggest failure was in naming and marketing. It’s not really a loan but a graduate contribution system with an end point. The government have raised the repayment threshold,d to £25k and linked it to earnings. It is in effect a graduate tax.

    No, I'm not confusing deficit and debt. Yes, it is a modified graduate tax because Osborne would not accept an actual tax and managed to blame Willetts for the resulting dog's breakfast. All that aside, it is a mess. And it is off the books. The ONS should complete its review by Christmas.

    Ironically, the idea of income contingent loans does seem quite a good one that could be applied in other areas, but not necessarily for students. Film subsidies, to take a topical example.
    Yes you are confusing debt and deficit. We are not lending £100bn each year:

    http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01079/SN01079.pdf
    £20 billion a year. And I was sending up the BBC's report ... "that's the gist".
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Off-topic:

    In the latest instalment of the Elon Musk saga, Joe Rogan has Musk smoking a spliff during a livestream.

    I *really* hope he doesn't go back into the office to work. And stays off Twitter ...

    How long has the stream been going for, still live I think
    A couple of hours - I only saw the last half-hour or so, and it's just ended.

    From what I saw, it'll appeal to the fanbois, and rather dismay the businessfolk. In places it was a bit bizarre.
    Will have to watch, I'm a fanboi (With the diver caveat) but Tesla isn't a stock I'd hold directly right now
    Please let me know what you think - I'll try to watch the whole thing as well.
  • Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Or perhaps they just think their MP shouldn't be taking freeby trips or maybe they just believe that their MP should devote their time to their constitents?
    Magic Grandpa & Palestine Conferences (and wreath laying ceremonies...)?
    Palestinians have been given a very poor shake of the dice. It is incumbent on all good Socialists to turn towards the downtrodden first. There was a time when the Jews who fled to Israel with the intention of survival fulfilled that role That ceased to be the case decades ago and now the oppressed have become the oppressors.
    Corbyn freebies and time away from constituency good, Ryan freebies and time away from constituency bad.....

    Given "the oppressors" have been threatened with destruction repeatedly it is understandable to an extent their vigilance in self-preservation (not that I support either settlement or Netanyahu) - but to court the government TV station of a country that hangs people for being gay is not very 'good socialist' in my book.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 29,014
    edited September 2018
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    By which time she will have agreed the withdrawal agreement and transition period with the EU in all likelihood ensuring she stays until next March to get it through and given the lack of acceptable alternatives to MPs possibly now for years beyond.

    May can say she is the only thing stopping a Corbyn v Boris/Mogg next general election
    Precisely - the Conference was their very last opportunity (in truth it was probably already too late) to stop May - giving her a 'stay of execution' is just an excuse for 'we haven't got the numbers now, maybe we will later'.
    Indeed, it is increasingly possible now May will lead the Tories through to the next general election given the strong possibility that if she went Boris or Mogg would replace her
    Boris's star is clearly waning. He might be wandering around covered in sack cloth and ashes, wailing about his lost career. But frankly, he needed to tell us what he stood for. If he wanted to be taken seriously, he needed to spend the last year writing out a detailed manifesto.

    Instead, he's spent his time knocking off copy and knocking off totty...
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,606
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Or perhaps they just think their MP shouldn't be taking freeby trips or maybe they just believe that their MP should devote their time to their constitents?
    Magic Grandpa & Palestine Conferences (and wreath laying ceremonies...)?
    Palestinians have been given a very poor shake of the dice. It is incumbent on all good Socialists to turn towards the downtrodden first. There was a time when the Jews who fled to Israel with the intention of survival fulfilled that role That ceased to be the case decades ago and now the oppressed have become the oppressors.
    dont be daft Roger every time the Palestinians have been given the dice they polish off all the spots so they only ever throw a blank.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,668
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    The trouble with Boris going down in flames is that it might make the membership agitate for JRM even more.

    Tonight is a big moment for the ERG. Boris star has fallen and if he is not banging the drum there is no one else near his gravitas to leavers
    Oh for goodness sake almost everybody in the country knows Boris is a womaniser and that has been the case for years, if voters wanted someone with the Pope's private life they would have told pollsters they would not vote for Boris years ago.

    As Bill Clinton, JFK, Berlusconi, Chirac, Mitterand etc prove having a colourful private life matters little if you have charisma and on the EU Boris remains closely aligned with the bulk of the Tory membership. Brexiteers who want a more traditionalist leader will just shift to the even harder line anti Chequers Deal and strict Catholic Jacob Rees-Mogg anyway, not a Remainer
    Who was the last womaniser that became our PM?

    We have higher standards than the French, Americans, and Italians.
    Remember Wendy Dong?
    One of our recent former PMs also reportedly had an encounter with a lady of the night on holiday if you believe the Internet
    Gladstone?
  • In other news, Ed Miliband's Theresa May's government looks like pressing ahead with energy price caps to save consumers £75 on average.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45422218
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 29,014
    edited September 2018


    Wonder what his lunch (at a very conspicuous restaurant) with the Chief Whip was about yesterday.....

    One or other had probably been tipped off about the Sun headline.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,923

    tlg86 said:

    notme said:

    George Osborne's student loans magic money tree might need watering.

    The ONS is wondering if student loans should be included in the accounts. £30bn write-offs? £100bn on the deficit? Think of a number, add the word billion, and that is how much Tories have been lying about the economy. I think that's the gist.

    How can you lend someone almost £120bn and not have a hole in your budget? Or how can you give out £17bn, only receive back £3bn and not be any worse off?

    When you're the government and it's the student loans system.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-45421621

    You are confusing deficit and debt.
    The system was always set up so most people wouldn’t pay it off. It’s biggest failure was in naming and marketing. It’s not really a loan but a graduate contribution system with an end point. The government have raised the repayment threshold,d to £25k and linked it to earnings. It is in effect a graduate tax.

    No, I'm not confusing deficit and debt. Yes, it is a modified graduate tax because Osborne would not accept an actual tax and managed to blame Willetts for the resulting dog's breakfast. All that aside, it is a mess. And it is off the books. The ONS should complete its review by Christmas.

    Ironically, the idea of income contingent loans does seem quite a good one that could be applied in other areas, but not necessarily for students. Film subsidies, to take a topical example.
    Yes you are confusing debt and deficit. We are not lending £100bn each year:

    http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01079/SN01079.pdf
    £20 billion a year. And I was sending up the BBC's report ... "that's the gist".
    Outstanding student loan debts are £118bn and rising - but when it comes to the public finances and the deficit, the cost of student loans is invisible.

    Yes, that line in the BBC report is a bit naughty.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 29,014
    So basically Vince is saying "Yes, I'm shit at being leader - but all my colleagues would be worse...."

    That must make for a happy grouping....
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,668
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The trouble with Boris going down in flames is that it might make the membership agitate for JRM even more.

    Tonight is a big moment for the ERG. Boris star has fallen and if he is not banging the drum there is no one else near his gravitas to leavers
    Oh for goodness sake almost everybody in the country knows Boris is a womaniser and that has been the case for years, if voters wanted someone with the Pope's private life they would have told pollsters they would not vote for Boris years ago.
    And now they know he's a womaniser who isn't trusted by his wife

    If his wife can't trust him, who can?
    Voters are electing a PM not the Pope or Archbishop of Canterbury, almost half the males in the country have had affairs and more so if they have power and money
    Generally, women (more than half the electorate) aren't keen on 'men who have affairs' (and men vice versa) - but I think you are missing the bigger point - "trust". If his wife can't trust him - can you?
    Bob Dole tried that tactic against Bill Clinton in 1996 and it fell flat, voters are not looking for a Saint just someone with some charisma who can do the job well
    Well, that second criteria eliminates Boris! He was a spectacularly useless Foreign Sec.
    He was a relatively successful Mayor of London, Remainers disliked his stint as Foreign Secretary after Brexit but that is no surprise
    I’m a Londoner and a Leaver

    In his first term as Mayor he was mediocre. His second term was worse. He was a terrible foreign secretary. None of that gives me confidence he’d be a good PM
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,600
    edited September 2018

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Or perhaps they just think their MP shouldn't be taking freeby trips or maybe they just believe that their MP should devote their time to their constitents?
    Magic Grandpa & Palestine Conferences (and wreath laying ceremonies...)?
    Palestinians have been given a very poor shake of the dice. It is incumbent on all good Socialists to turn towards the downtrodden first. There was a time when the Jews who fled to Israel with the intention of survival fulfilled that role That ceased to be the case decades ago and now the oppressed have become the oppressors.
    dont be daft Roger every time the Palestinians have been given the dice they polish off all the spots so they only ever throw a blank.
    Is that an Irish variation on the Chinese proverb 'When the wise man points to the moon only the fool looks at the finger'

    .....Did you hear the one about the Irish milk bottle?
  • Mr. Mark, not only that. Suppose they won an election, or form a coalition (yes, unlikely, but possible). Do we have a deputy PM who is not an elected politician, or even a politician at all?

    It's just weird. I could, perhaps, see extending it to the Lords, as another Chamber, but his proposals seem to be off the bloody wall.
  • Mr. Pioneers, we'll see if there's a split. But if the moderate frogs don't jump soon, they'll be boiled.

    Starting a new party is difficult under FPTP but it's a hell of a lot easier if you're the official Opposition and have 100+ MPs to start with. If those MPs just retire, accept the Cult of Jezbollah, or are deselected, the major presence of the left in British politics won't be split. It'll just be so far to the left they think marching with hammers and sickles is normal human behaviour.

    Still, I'm sure Corbyn will lay a wreath for the fallen moderates.

    Its not the party thats the problem. Its the deranged entryist fucks who have swept in who think its solidarity to invite in fucking Press TV who can air a special of their meeting inbetween a programme explaining the evils of Israel and why it needs to be swept into the sea and why gay men need tl be persecuted and executed.

    We cannot leave. We will not leave. Because if we do these fuckwads hand the country to the Tories.
    You are wrong, That’s not how politics works.

    Labour de selects what you call moderates what someone else may call failed new labour pestilence, there’s simply another Labour candidate in the seat. A name with the word Labour next to it.

    Wait what’s that noise! Swooooooooosh.

    The winds of change. In 1997 labour could have put a parsnip, spanner or a circular disk up in some seats and barely campaigned there and it would have won.

    Let me correct you. The Tories and the country hand the country to the fuckwads.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Or perhaps they just think their MP shouldn't be taking freeby trips or maybe they just believe that their MP should devote their time to their constitents?
    Magic Grandpa & Palestine Conferences (and wreath laying ceremonies...)?
    Palestinians have been given a very poor shake of the dice. It is incumbent on all good Socialists to turn towards the downtrodden first. There was a time when the Jews who fled to Israel with the intention of survival fulfilled that role That ceased to be the case decades ago and now the oppressed have become the oppressors.
    dont be daft Roger every time the Palestinians have been given the dice they polish off all the spots so they only ever throw a blank.
    And whenever they’ve been dealt a hand, they’ve burnt the cards and started throwing rocks at the dealer. There’s been several times they’ve been dealt a flush.
  • Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    The trouble with Boris going down in flames is that it might make the membership agitate for JRM even more.

    Tonight is a big moment for the ERG. Boris star has fallen and if he is not banging the drum there is no one else near his gravitas to leavers
    Oh for goodness sake almost everybody in the country knows Boris is a womaniser and that has been the case for years, if voters wanted someone with the Pope's private life they would have told pollsters they would not vote for Boris years ago.

    As Bill Clinton, JFK, Berlusconi, Chirac, Mitterand etc prove having a colourful private life matters little if you have charisma and on the EU Boris remains closely aligned with the bulk of the Tory membership. Brexiteers who want a more traditionalist leader will just shift to the even harder line anti Chequers Deal and strict Catholic Jacob Rees-Mogg anyway, not a Remainer
    Who was the last womaniser that became our PM?

    We have higher standards than the French, Americans, and Italians.
    Remember Wendy Dong?
    One of our recent former PMs also reportedly had an encounter with a lady of the night on holiday if you believe the Internet
    Gladstone?
    He claimed that he used to read the bible to them. Whether they were noshing him off while he read them psalms one will ever know
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,973
    Alistair said:

    Remember that incredibly tricky "lawyerly trick" question that Kavanaugh was asked during the confirmation hearing, the one where Kavanaugh acted like he'd never even heard of the law firm?

    Turns out he's close friends with an attorney who works at the firm.

    The Republicans really are still sore about Bork and are looking to settle scores.

    Kamala Harris is a star. No wonder she is favourite for Democrat nominee. She ticks all the boxes. She is number 46. At 10s on Betfair.
  • So basically Vince is saying "Yes, I'm shit at being leader - but all my colleagues would be worse...."

    That must make for a happy grouping....
    It seems pretty innovative to me. I think it is also quite possible that in the future we might see a PM who is an MP, but is not leader of his or her party. This might avoid the calamity of PM Corbyn
  • I should think TMay will be quite satisfied with that poll. Also suggests that Boris is politically flat-lining. Hold back on the defibrillator please nurse.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 64,440
    Barnesian said:

    Alistair said:

    Remember that incredibly tricky "lawyerly trick" question that Kavanaugh was asked during the confirmation hearing, the one where Kavanaugh acted like he'd never even heard of the law firm?

    Turns out he's close friends with an attorney who works at the firm.

    The Republicans really are still sore about Bork and are looking to settle scores.

    Kamala Harris is a star. No wonder she is favourite for Democrat nominee. She ticks all the boxes. She is number 46. At 10s on Betfair.
    No she is not, at the moment Biden and Sanders are followed by Warren.
  • HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Alistair said:

    Remember that incredibly tricky "lawyerly trick" question that Kavanaugh was asked during the confirmation hearing, the one where Kavanaugh acted like he'd never even heard of the law firm?

    Turns out he's close friends with an attorney who works at the firm.

    The Republicans really are still sore about Bork and are looking to settle scores.

    Kamala Harris is a star. No wonder she is favourite for Democrat nominee. She ticks all the boxes. She is number 46. At 10s on Betfair.
    No she is not, at the moment Biden and Sanders are followed by Warren.
    On Betfair she's the favourite.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 64,440
    Boris would also appeal though to the 7% now backing UKIP
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 64,440
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The trouble with Boris going down in flames is that it might make the membership agitate for JRM even more.

    Tonight is a big moment for the ERG. Boris star has fallen and if he is not banging the drum there is no one else near his gravitas to leavers
    Oh for goodness sake almost everybody in the country knows Boris is a womaniser and that has been the case for years, if voters wanted someone with the Pope's private life they would have told pollsters they would not vote for Boris years ago.
    And now they know he's a womaniser who isn't trusted by his wife

    If his wife can't trust him, who can?
    Voters are electing a PM not the Pope or Archbishop of Canterbury, almost half the males in the country have had affairs and more so if they have power and money
    Generally, women (more than half the electorate) aren't keen on 'men who have affairs' (and men vice versa) - but I think you are missing the bigger point - "trust". If his wife can't trust him - can you?
    Bob Dole tried that tactic against Bill Clinton in 1996 and it fell flat, voters are not looking for a Saint just someone with some charisma who can do the job well
    Well, that second criteria eliminates Boris! He was a spectacularly useless Foreign Sec.
    He was a relatively successful Mayor of London, Remainers disliked his stint as Foreign Secretary after Brexit but that is no surprise
    I’m a Londoner and a Leaver

    In his first term as Mayor he was mediocre. His second term was worse. He was a terrible foreign secretary. None of that gives me confidence he’d be a good PM
    Boris and Mogg have more support combined than all the other candidates put together in the latest ConHome Tory members poll.

    If May goes expect an anti Chequers Deal hard line Brexiteer to replace her as the ERG will ensure an anti Chequers Deal candidate gets to the final two as the right did with Leadsom, Davis and IDS
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 64,440
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    The trouble with Boris going down in flames is that it might make the membership agitate for JRM even more.

    Tonight is a big moment for the ERG. Boris star has fallen and if he is not banging the drum there is no one else near his gravitas to leavers
    Oh for goodness sake almost everybody in the country knows Boris is a womaniser and that has been the case for years, if voters wanted someone with the Pope's private life they would have told pollsters they would not vote for Boris years ago.

    As Bill Clinton, JFK, Berlusconi, Chirac, Mitterand etc prove having a colourful private life matters little if you have charisma and on the EU Boris remains closely aligned with the bulk of the Tory membership. Brexiteers who want a more traditionalist leader will just shift to the even harder line anti Chequers Deal and strict Catholic Jacob Rees-Mogg anyway, not a Remainer
    Who was the last womaniser that became our PM?

    We have higher standards than the French, Americans, and Italians.
    Remember Wendy Dong?
    One of our recent former PMs also reportedly had an encounter with a lady of the night on holiday if you believe the Internet
    Gladstone?
    Rather more recent than that
  • HYUFD said:

    Boris would also appeal though to the 7% now backing UKIP
    Big deal. So would Nick Griffin doesn't mean squat.

    58% of the Tories is more than the 7% of the Tommy Robinson party.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 29,014

    Mr. Pioneers, we'll see if there's a split. But if the moderate frogs don't jump soon, they'll be boiled.

    Starting a new party is difficult under FPTP but it's a hell of a lot easier if you're the official Opposition and have 100+ MPs to start with. If those MPs just retire, accept the Cult of Jezbollah, or are deselected, the major presence of the left in British politics won't be split. It'll just be so far to the left they think marching with hammers and sickles is normal human behaviour.

    Still, I'm sure Corbyn will lay a wreath for the fallen moderates.

    Its not the party thats the problem. Its the deranged entryist fucks who have swept in who think its solidarity to invite in fucking Press TV who can air a special of their meeting inbetween a programme explaining the evils of Israel and why it needs to be swept into the sea and why gay men need tl be persecuted and executed.

    We cannot leave. We will not leave. Because if we do these fuckwads hand the country to the Tories.
    Where you go wrong is the very first line. It IS the party that's the problem.Your party is now deranged entryist fucks. There is no control stopping them. There doesn't even seem to be any acknowledgment that it is a problem that needs sorting. That comes from the top. And since the NEC elections, the next tier down too.

    They are untouchable.

  • HYUFD said:

    Boris would also appeal though to the 7% now backing UKIP
    That would be immediately offset by an equal or greater number that though they dislike Mrs Weathervane, they think she is a more acceptable PM than the alternatives. She has also done quite well over Salisbury, standing up to Putin and she hates Boris. I am beginning to think she is mediocre but OK and hope she stays.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 27,468
    Barnesian said:

    Alistair said:

    Remember that incredibly tricky "lawyerly trick" question that Kavanaugh was asked during the confirmation hearing, the one where Kavanaugh acted like he'd never even heard of the law firm?

    Turns out he's close friends with an attorney who works at the firm.

    The Republicans really are still sore about Bork and are looking to settle scores.

    Kamala Harris is a star. No wonder she is favourite for Democrat nominee. She ticks all the boxes. She is number 46. At 10s on Betfair.
    I thought she was very impressive in that session. California moving up their primary will help her a lot too. That's really quite tempting.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,067
    I would read the OBR report on the government accounting for student loans.

    http://obr.uk/download/working-paper-no-12-student-loans-and-fiscal-illusions/

    It looks like Enron reporting.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 29,014
    HYUFD said:

    Boris would also appeal though to the 7% now backing UKIP
    Although at most only a tiny proportion of that 7% will have a UKIP candidate to vote for anyway.
  • Another day in Class War, sorry I mean Labour:

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 29,014
    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    Alistair said:

    Remember that incredibly tricky "lawyerly trick" question that Kavanaugh was asked during the confirmation hearing, the one where Kavanaugh acted like he'd never even heard of the law firm?

    Turns out he's close friends with an attorney who works at the firm.

    The Republicans really are still sore about Bork and are looking to settle scores.

    Kamala Harris is a star. No wonder she is favourite for Democrat nominee. She ticks all the boxes. She is number 46. At 10s on Betfair.
    I thought she was very impressive in that session. California moving up their primary will help her a lot too. That's really quite tempting.
    She'd certainly appeal to those missing Obama. And hard to see how Trump combats her without destroying his remaining vote with independents.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 64,440

    HYUFD said:

    Boris would also appeal though to the 7% now backing UKIP
    That would be immediately offset by an equal or greater number that though they dislike Mrs Weathervane, they think she is a more acceptable PM than the alternatives. She has also done quite well over Salisbury, standing up to Putin and she hates Boris. I am beginning to think she is mediocre but OK and hope she stays.
    The last Yougov had May doing better than all the other potential Tory leadership candidates in Tory voteshare v Corbyn bar Boris but it was only a 1% difference
  • DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    Alistair said:

    Remember that incredibly tricky "lawyerly trick" question that Kavanaugh was asked during the confirmation hearing, the one where Kavanaugh acted like he'd never even heard of the law firm?

    Turns out he's close friends with an attorney who works at the firm.

    The Republicans really are still sore about Bork and are looking to settle scores.

    Kamala Harris is a star. No wonder she is favourite for Democrat nominee. She ticks all the boxes. She is number 46. At 10s on Betfair.
    I thought she was very impressive in that session. California moving up their primary will help her a lot too. That's really quite tempting.
    I'm on at 6, she has edged down a bit. Currently fav on BF.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 64,440

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Alistair said:

    Remember that incredibly tricky "lawyerly trick" question that Kavanaugh was asked during the confirmation hearing, the one where Kavanaugh acted like he'd never even heard of the law firm?

    Turns out he's close friends with an attorney who works at the firm.

    The Republicans really are still sore about Bork and are looking to settle scores.

    Kamala Harris is a star. No wonder she is favourite for Democrat nominee. She ticks all the boxes. She is number 46. At 10s on Betfair.
    No she is not, at the moment Biden and Sanders are followed by Warren.
    On Betfair she's the favourite.
    Which does not correlate with the Democratic primary polling at all where she is barely an asterisk including in early voting states and in general election polling Trump has beaten Harris but he always trails Biden and Sanders
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Alistair said:

    Remember that incredibly tricky "lawyerly trick" question that Kavanaugh was asked during the confirmation hearing, the one where Kavanaugh acted like he'd never even heard of the law firm?

    Turns out he's close friends with an attorney who works at the firm.

    The Republicans really are still sore about Bork and are looking to settle scores.

    Kamala Harris is a star. No wonder she is favourite for Democrat nominee. She ticks all the boxes. She is number 46. At 10s on Betfair.
    No she is not, at the moment Biden and Sanders are followed by Warren.
    On Betfair she's the favourite.
    Which does not correlate with the Democratic primary polling at all where she is barely an asterisk including in early voting states and in general election polling Trump has beaten Harris but he always trails Biden and Sanders
    Because punters know polling this far out usually isn't an accurate predictor of the nominee.
  • Boris Johnson's price for next Prime Minister and next Conservative leader has drifted overnight. For what it's worth, I think this is exactly the wrong reaction to the Sun exclusive. It's hardly news that Boris Johnson can't keep his flies zipped up. But the story breaking at a time when the news can safely be got out of the way suggests that he is clearing the decks for a leadership bid.

    Seems to be another example of people getting to the conclusion before they've engaged brain
  • So basically Vince is saying "Yes, I'm shit at being leader - but all my colleagues would be worse...."

    That must make for a happy grouping....
    It seems pretty innovative to me. I think it is also quite possible that in the future we might see a PM who is an MP, but is not leader of his or her party. This might avoid the calamity of PM Corbyn
    Why is this breaking news? The same news was reported in I think Sunday Times about three weeks ago. Cable denied it.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,900
    Morning all :)

    Away from the internal party gossip, some other interesting polling on a key issue:

    https://www.publicfinance.co.uk/news/2018/09/public-backs-free-personal-care-older-people?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_term=

    Hardly surprising at this time but of course no one knows or has calculated what kind of tax and NI rises would be needed to provide that free care. If, for instance, free care required raising the base rate to 30% and the higher rate to 55% whether there would be such enthusiasm.

    Interesting to note the other non-income tax and non-NI solutions being widely touted by some are all deemed to be insufficient although, as others, I do favour charging National Insurance for those working past retirement age.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 29,014

    Another day in Class War, sorry I mean Labour:

    Because they are going to win so many extra seats in Liverpool....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,854

    HYUFD said:

    Boris would also appeal though to the 7% now backing UKIP
    Big deal. So would Nick Griffin doesn't mean squat.

    58% of the Tories is more than the 7% of the Tommy Robinson party.
    Think HYUFD means the 7% who support UKIP not 7% of UKIP supporters. Still not enough to make BoJo anything other than a dead duck in the future PM stakes.
  • Mr. Pioneers, we'll see if there's a split. But if the moderate frogs don't jump soon, they'll be boiled.

    Starting a new party is difficult under FPTP but it's a hell of a lot easier if you're the official Opposition and have 100+ MPs to start with. If those MPs just retire, accept the Cult of Jezbollah, or are deselected, the major presence of the left in British politics won't be split. It'll just be so far to the left they think marching with hammers and sickles is normal human behaviour.

    Still, I'm sure Corbyn will lay a wreath for the fallen moderates.

    Its not the party thats the problem. Its the deranged entryist fucks who have swept in who think its solidarity to invite in fucking Press TV who can air a special of their meeting inbetween a programme explaining the evils of Israel and why it needs to be swept into the sea and why gay men need tl be persecuted and executed.

    We cannot leave. We will not leave. Because if we do these fuckwads hand the country to the Tories.
    You are wrong, That’s not how politics works.

    Labour de selects what you call moderates what someone else may call failed new labour pestilence, there’s simply another Labour candidate in the seat. A name with the word Labour next to it.

    Wait what’s that noise! Swooooooooosh.

    The winds of change. In 1997 labour could have put a parsnip, spanner or a circular disk up in some seats and barely campaigned there and it would have won.

    Let me correct you. The Tories and the country hand the country to the fuckwads.
    lol - if its that simple then why aren't Labour still in power with the 179 majority of 1997? Or the Tories with the 144 majority of 1983? You want to be elected you have to have something about you that punters will go to the polling station and vote for. Yes for some thats the party. Or the party leader. For many its narrow self interest or who they think is least worst. A few have a personal vote for the individual candidate.

    So if you tell people that the MP they have voted for for decades was actually WRONG and isn't fit to be the MP then you're telling voters that they are wrong. That they have been deluded, stupid, ignorant. That they were mistaken backing that person and making that choice.

    Enfield North is a bellweather seat. If you think that removing an MP who has been elected there 5 times because she according to her own party isn't fit means that whatever cultist they appoint will walk it you nay be in for a shock.

    Voters dislike being told they are wrong.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,668

    Mr. Pioneers, we'll see if there's a split. But if the moderate frogs don't jump soon, they'll be boiled.

    Starting a new party is difficult under FPTP but it's a hell of a lot easier if you're the official Opposition and have 100+ MPs to start with. If those MPs just retire, accept the Cult of Jezbollah, or are deselected, the major presence of the left in British politics won't be split. It'll just be so far to the left they think marching with hammers and sickles is normal human behaviour.

    Still, I'm sure Corbyn will lay a wreath for the fallen moderates.

    Its not the party thats the problem. Its the deranged entryist fucks who have swept in who think its solidarity to invite in fucking Press TV who can air a special of their meeting inbetween a programme explaining the evils of Israel and why it needs to be swept into the sea and why gay men need tl be persecuted and executed.

    We cannot leave. We will not leave. Because if we do these fuckwads hand the country to the Tories.
    It's too late.
    Join us in the North East Party and help build a reasonable progressive alternative.
    Build a Tory majority having split the left you mean
    Let’s play a thought game

    Corbyn wins the next election and you play an important role in that

    A handful of British-born Jews leave the country voluntarily because they no longer feel welcome

    Are you proud of yourself?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 15,789
    Our very own @NickPalmer must be glad he’s still not an MP. Wasn’t he Chair of Labour Friends of Israel at one point?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,668

    As a film producer, my wife knew all about these schemes - and avoided them like the plague. She could see exactly what was going to happen. Even said so at a conference.
    I was regularly pitched then as a way to reduce tax. They stank.
  • Mr. Pioneers, minor point, but it's bellwether. A wether is a castrated ram, in this case with a bell around its neck, thus helping to guide other sheep.
  • Charles said:

    Mr. Pioneers, we'll see if there's a split. But if the moderate frogs don't jump soon, they'll be boiled.

    Starting a new party is difficult under FPTP but it's a hell of a lot easier if you're the official Opposition and have 100+ MPs to start with. If those MPs just retire, accept the Cult of Jezbollah, or are deselected, the major presence of the left in British politics won't be split. It'll just be so far to the left they think marching with hammers and sickles is normal human behaviour.

    Still, I'm sure Corbyn will lay a wreath for the fallen moderates.

    Its not the party thats the problem. Its the deranged entryist fucks who have swept in who think its solidarity to invite in fucking Press TV who can air a special of their meeting inbetween a programme explaining the evils of Israel and why it needs to be swept into the sea and why gay men need tl be persecuted and executed.

    We cannot leave. We will not leave. Because if we do these fuckwads hand the country to the Tories.
    It's too late.
    Join us in the North East Party and help build a reasonable progressive alternative.
    Build a Tory majority having split the left you mean
    Let’s play a thought game

    Corbyn wins the next election and you play an important role in that

    A handful of British-born Jews leave the country voluntarily because they no longer feel welcome

    Are you proud of yourself?
    British Jews leave the country every year but this will only be headline news under Corbyn, and it will be headline news.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris would also appeal though to the 7% now backing UKIP
    That would be immediately offset by an equal or greater number that though they dislike Mrs Weathervane, they think she is a more acceptable PM than the alternatives. She has also done quite well over Salisbury, standing up to Putin and she hates Boris. I am beginning to think she is mediocre but OK and hope she stays.
    The last Yougov had May doing better than all the other potential Tory leadership candidates in Tory voteshare v Corbyn bar Boris but it was only a 1% difference
    I think it has been regularly discussed on here before, these hypotheticals are very misleading anyway. Boris is a highly recognised celebrity so does well. TMay was severely criticised because of her inability to perform when the political bullets started firing. Based on Boris's mediocre time as Mayor and his abysmal record in his only major government position I think it is fair to say that Mrs May's fields of wheat interview was a political masterclass compared to the incompetent buffoonery we would see from Bozo should he lead the Tories into an election.

    What I ought to find amazing is how easily Leavers are duped by this charlatan, though then sophisticated analysis is not normally a common trait among the swivel-eyed.
This discussion has been closed.