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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s tantrums won’t cost him the presidency – yet

SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited September 8 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s tantrums won’t cost him the presidency – yet

Dysfunctional doesn’t begin to describe the White House. The high level of turnover among staff, the erratic decision-making, the presidential public streams-of-consciousness made with zero empathy for their subjects, the failure to actually deliver on key policies like The Wall: we knew all this and have done pretty much since Day 1, if not before. What we didn’t know before the sensational New York Times article[1] was the extent to which members of his own administration don’t trust him and are resorting to extraordinary measures to thwart his worst inclinations.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 31,291
    First! Like Mrs May & Leave...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,203
    Interesting that the NYT article and its author are pretty widely condemned in most of the liberal US media as being self-serving and counterproductive.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,203

    First! Like Mrs May & Leave...

    While your steadfast commitment to repetitiveness is commendable, you could perhaps drop the exclamation mark, as it long ceased to serve a function.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,474
    The header is not right to claim we did not already know the White House was dysfunctional. There have been many leaks and several books: Bob Woodward; Omarosa; Rick Wilson (as recommended by RCS); all following from Michael Wolff.

    And it is well-known there are record numbers of senior places unfilled, and record turnover of senior officials, which even has its own Wikipedia page:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Trump_administration_dismissals_and_resignations

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,418
    it’s all about loyalty to him. Not to the constitution; not to the law; not to the office; not to the United States; not to Republican Party – certainly not to the Republican Party. To him, personally. So the sense of betrayal at such a personal level is a deadly breach of the omerta he expects and demands of his underlings irrespective of his actions (which are, in any case, by definition right because they’re his).

    Sounds just like David Cameron.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,474
    Vice-President Mike Pence has denied authorship, in which case it was composed to look as if he'd written it. As the BBC notes, it is not just the word lodestar but also the sentence structure that point that way:
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45435813

    But has Pence himself actually denied it? The first few pieces I've checked from a google search that headline Pence's denial are actually reporting that his staff denied it, often with what cynics would call non-denial denials. For instance, Time ran the headline: Vice President Pence Denies He's the 'Lodestar' Behind Anonymous New York Times Op-Ed above a story reporting that: “The Vice President puts his name on his Op-Eds,” Pence’s chief of staff Jarrod Agen said in a tweet. Obviously I have not checked all reports so perhaps Pence really has denied involvement.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,474
    Boris is 4/1 favourite on Betfair to be next Conservative leader in a notably thin and illiquid market but longer odds are available elsewhere, Bet365 being longest at 5/1, so either Boris's Betfair fans are barred from every betting shop in the land (and online) or it is a clumsy though successful attempt to shore up Boris as the main contender.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,990

    Boris is 4/1 favourite on Betfair to be next Conservative leader in a notably thin and illiquid market but longer odds are available elsewhere, Bet365 being longest at 5/1, so either Boris's Betfair fans are barred from every betting shop in the land (and online) or it is a clumsy though successful attempt to shore up Boris as the main contender.

    But if you’re laying then the shorter price is better. ;)
    This weekend’s revelations are just another nail in his political coffin.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 31,291
    Donald Trump engaged in a months-long effort to secure the loyalty of then-FBI Director James Comey in a series of meetings and phone calls that began in the presidential transition period -- behavior Comey likens to that of a mafia boss.....

    Those efforts included a now-famous, private White House dinner with Trump just a week after the president was inaugurated, in which Trump, Comey writes, told him: “I need loyalty. I expect loyalty.”

    Comey writes that to him, “The demand was like Sammy the Bull’s Cosa Nostra induction ceremony,” referring to Salvatore “Sammy the Bull” Gravano, a former leader of the Gambino crime family, whose testimony ultimately helped convict mob boss John Gotti.

    Comey responded with silence, he writes in the book, and Trump moved the conversation along. Later in the dinner, Trump returned to the subject: “I need loyalty.”

    “You will always get honesty from me,” Comey writes that he responded.

    “That’s what I want, honest loyalty,” Trump said.


    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/comey-book-claims-president-trump-sought-loyalty-mafia/story?id=54420635
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,978
    Good morning, everyone.

    Lethargy will aid Trump. We're closer to the start of 2019 than 2018. Not that much longer until the 2020 campaign (given US presidential campaigns seem to start a bloody long time before the actual elections. If they try and remove him it'll likely come through the more usual 2020 channels than the 25th Amendment.

    Of course, if they didn't have such elections then doing nothing and pussyfooting about would be self-defeating inertia.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 1,609
    OT

    Chris Leslie probably likely to have a no confidence vote soon, he is the name I had heard most from a while back along with Woodcock (could be some self selecting bias here as they were probably my 2 least favourite Labour MPs) he suffered a no confidence vote within one branch of the wider constituency by a decent ratio.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,978
    Mr. Evershed, FPT (and yesterday), my positions are thus:

    - AV
    The work of Satan.

    - Christianity and gays
    I fully endorse gay rights (marriage, next of kin status, adoptions etc). As with other religions, I endorse the right of people to believe and worship in the way they see best, provided it does not harm others or seek to impose their views on others. If Christians wish to enjoy fruity fun time with one another, this is entirely up to them.

    - Legalising cannabis
    Mixed feelings. Taxed and regulated weaker cannabis might provide a legal and safe way for consuming it, whilst also improving state coffers. However, studies have indicated cannabis can cause psychological problems and I'd want at least a pilot into any legalisation and, preceding that, a full run-down of the pros and cons from a health perspective.

    - Brexit
    As a Democrat, of course I respect the right of the electorate to determine their destiny. Following our departure, a full policy review of the new position and how to make the best of our situation (in both the short and long term) would occur.

    - Sandals with socks?
    These were worn by the Romans when they conquered Britain and, as such, form a crucial part of our national history. Whilst I do not wear sandals myself, I do support those who wish to do so, whether with or without socks.

    I'd also like to emphasise the environmentally friendly aspect of the solar death ray, which can be used to annihilate our enemies whilst producing no carbon dioxide whatsoever.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 1,609
    Also a suggestion regarding the podcast and generating discussion here, you could have an article the following day (or maybe even a day or two later than that) on the topics covered in the podcast, this would be when those who will listen would have had a chance to have done so already. The problem at the moment is even many of those who do listen to the podcast won't have had a chance by the time the discussion moves on to a new article.

    If you devote an article (by someone who listened) to the topics in the podcast then even those who didn't listen will be guided towards that discussion and those who did will have the extra knowledge and talking points provided already.

    Also in regard to the small parts vs longer podcast as you already discuss a few topics could the podcast not be released in full and also cut up into a few smaller parts. If necessary maybe an extra minute or two recording for each smaller part to smooth transitions in the cut up version without affecting the current flow of the longer episode.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 31,291

    Vice-President Mike Pence has denied authorship, in which case it was composed to look as if he'd written it. As the BBC notes, it is not just the word lodestar but also the sentence structure that point that way:
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45435813

    Interesting analysis.

    I wonder if the short sentences points to a business background? When I worked for an American Corp the 'house style' was short sentences, short paragraphs with one point and 'one page memos'. Pence is a lawyer.

    OT - did DavidL mention how he got on in his election yesterday?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,474


    OT - did DavidL mention how he got on in his election yesterday?

    Voting continues till next Tuesday evening, he said.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,474

    Vice-President Mike Pence has denied authorship, in which case it was composed to look as if he'd written it. As the BBC notes, it is not just the word lodestar but also the sentence structure that point that way:
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45435813

    Interesting analysis.

    I wonder if the short sentences points to a business background? When I worked for an American Corp the 'house style' was short sentences, short paragraphs with one point and 'one page memos'. Pence is a lawyer.
    It is possible. My first thought was that there must be software for this sort of textual analysis for authorship in both academia and the three-letter agencies. My second thought was that the latter probably also have software to alter compositions into the style of someone they want to frame.

    But Pence must still be favourite. It is his style and the vice-president cannot be sacked by the president (although Trump can choose a new running mate for 2020).
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 20,752
    @Ishmael_Z FPT

    Re Elon Musk

    Peter Thiel is the person who deserves the credit for PayPal. You don’t hear much about him anymore because he’s not flavour of the month in California (he’s a Republican)

    Thiel founded Confirmity (a money transfer company) in 1998. It merged with Musk’s X.com (an idea for online banking in March 2000). Musk was fired in October 2000 and replaced by Thiel.

    eBay also deserves credit - they bought the start up in 2002 and developed the business we know today

    Musk has traded off PayPal for most of his career. He’s a good promoter (ie good at raising capital) but I’m not convinced that makes him a good businessman

    Tesla can’t produce on schedule abd loses money. A business that can’t scale is problematic. I don’t know enough about SpaceX.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 1,609
    edited September 8

    Vice-President Mike Pence has denied authorship, in which case it was composed to look as if he'd written it. As the BBC notes, it is not just the word lodestar but also the sentence structure that point that way:
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45435813

    Interesting analysis.

    I wonder if the short sentences points to a business background? When I worked for an American Corp the 'house style' was short sentences, short paragraphs with one point and 'one page memos'. Pence is a lawyer.
    It is possible. My first thought was that there must be software for this sort of textual analysis for authorship in both academia and the three-letter agencies. My second thought was that the latter probably also have software to alter compositions into the style of someone they want to frame.

    But Pence must still be favourite. It is his style and the vice-president cannot be sacked by the president (although Trump can choose a new running mate for 2020).
    Harder as you make it longer but personally I would rip complete sentences of other people's words, maybe get the odd relative to give me a sentence in their words. End up with a jumble of other peoples wording and just make it flow and where needed put the word Trump in there. Look for the occasional synonym as you are writing a sentence. Use normal words but just look at every word you usually use and feel free to use other ones where it isn't common. Writing style is a bit different but short sentences are fairly common. Also I guess with short sentences you don't really give much away. With longer sentences there is more construction and potential difference... I guess?

    Unless this is some intentional play or I have a higher opinion of Pence than I should there is no way he would have used the phrase lodestar. Clever people make mistakes admittedly but I would have scanned that article, along with maybe some incredibly trusted person (eg wife husband), incredibly carefully. Even rewritten it just to absorb every line again once finished.
  • Nearly 1 in 5 voters say Boris Johnson’s adultery makes him unfit to be PM.

    The party splits are

    Con 16%
    Lab 21%
    LD 11%
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 20,752
    Not good wording

    I would read it as *This* does not make BJ unfit... because he already is. This just confirms it.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,511

    Boris is 4/1 favourite on Betfair to be next Conservative leader in a notably thin and illiquid market but longer odds are available elsewhere, Bet365 being longest at 5/1, so either Boris's Betfair fans are barred from every betting shop in the land (and online) or it is a clumsy though successful attempt to shore up Boris as the main contender.

    Apparently Boris’s soon to be ex-wife was his important political adviser and is a Brexiteer. Can some reasonably nubile female Remainer not be persuaded, for the good of the cause, to put herself in a position where he could decide that after all, Brexit is turning out to be a terrible mistake and he should cease to campaign for it?
    And, after a decent interval, switch sides completely!
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,474

    Just look at question 5

    twitter.com/msmithsonpb/status/1038199014372638720?s=21

    Never mind question 5; it is question 4 that matters, as it suggests fully two thirds of the poll's respondents have been deluded into thinking that either Boris or Theresa May currently has a plan.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,740
    Charles said:

    @Ishmael_Z FPT

    Re Elon Musk

    Peter Thiel is the person who deserves the credit for PayPal. You don’t hear much about him anymore because he’s not flavour of the month in California (he’s a Republican)

    Thiel founded Confirmity (a money transfer company) in 1998. It merged with Musk’s X.com (an idea for online banking in March 2000). Musk was fired in October 2000 and replaced by Thiel.

    eBay also deserves credit - they bought the start up in 2002 and developed the business we know today

    Musk has traded off PayPal for most of his career. He’s a good promoter (ie good at raising capital) but I’m not convinced that makes him a good businessman

    Tesla can’t produce on schedule abd loses money. A business that can’t scale is problematic. I don’t know enough about SpaceX.

    Pretty much agree with that. SpaceX faces a few problems (e.g. cost of BFR, the risk of Starlink, whether there are enough commercial cargoes available), but its core F9 rocket is a worldbeater and should be very profitable even without NASA cargo and crew contracts (then again, NASA has essentially paid for the rocket's development).

    Musk's idea of bringing rapid development practices from software to rockets worked - just. However it's utterly failed in Tesla - the market is too large, and you are selling to hundreds of thousands of consumers, not a handful of large organisations. You can coachbuild a hundred items a year, but not a hundred thousand.

    It should also be noted that he has relied heavily on investment from his mates on alleged good terms, e.g. the lads at Google. This is unavailable to most businessmen.

    I really want to like Musk, and there is much to admire, but he needs to grow up a little. Replacing Tesla's board might be a good start ...
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,474

    Vice-President Mike Pence has denied authorship, in which case it was composed to look as if he'd written it. As the BBC notes, it is not just the word lodestar but also the sentence structure that point that way:
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45435813

    Interesting analysis.

    I wonder if the short sentences points to a business background? When I worked for an American Corp the 'house style' was short sentences, short paragraphs with one point and 'one page memos'. Pence is a lawyer.
    It is possible. My first thought was that there must be software for this sort of textual analysis for authorship in both academia and the three-letter agencies. My second thought was that the latter probably also have software to alter compositions into the style of someone they want to frame.

    But Pence must still be favourite. It is his style and the vice-president cannot be sacked by the president (although Trump can choose a new running mate for 2020).
    Harder as you make it longer but personally I would rip complete sentences of other people's words, maybe get the odd relative to give me a sentence in their words. End up with a jumble of other peoples wording and just make it flow and where needed put the word Trump in there. Look for the occasional synonym as you are writing a sentence. Use normal words but just look at every word you usually use and feel free to use other ones where it isn't common. Writing style is a bit different but short sentences are fairly common. Also I guess with short sentences you don't really give much away. With longer sentences there is more construction and potential difference... I guess?

    Unless this is some intentional play or I have a higher opinion of Pence than I should there is no way he would have used the phrase lodestar. Clever people make mistakes admittedly but I would have scanned that article, along with maybe some incredibly trusted person (eg wife husband), incredibly carefully. Even rewritten it just to absorb every line again once finished.
    I don't know. The Hatton Garden robbers were caught despite owning the book Forensics for Dummies. Ken Livingstone was revealed as author of an anonymous anti-Blair article by his use of the word "grouplets". A recent NSA leaker was caught by the distinguishing dots added to documents by printers and photocopiers.

    So it is quite easy to believe most people would accept the newspaper's guarantee of anonymity and take no other precautions, even if they knew what precautions to take.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 31,291

    OT

    Chris Leslie probably likely to have a no confidence vote soon, he is the name I had heard most from a while back along with Woodcock (could be some self selecting bias here as they were probably my 2 least favourite Labour MPs) he suffered a no confidence vote within one branch of the wider constituency by a decent ratio.

    He won't have won any fans among Magic Grandpa's devotees with his robust denunciation of Russia over the Salisbury poisonings.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 31,291


    OT - did DavidL mention how he got on in his election yesterday?

    Voting continues till next Tuesday evening, he said.

    Lawyers taking their time.....I'm shocked I tell you! Shocked!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 31,291

    That's very volatile with +4s & -4s.....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,111

    Also a suggestion regarding the podcast and generating discussion here, you could have an article the following day (or maybe even a day or two later than that) on the topics covered in the podcast, this would be when those who will listen would have had a chance to have done so already. The problem at the moment is even many of those who do listen to the podcast won't have had a chance by the time the discussion moves on to a new article.

    If you devote an article (by someone who listened) to the topics in the podcast then even those who didn't listen will be guided towards that discussion and those who did will have the extra knowledge and talking points provided already.

    Also in regard to the small parts vs longer podcast as you already discuss a few topics could the podcast not be released in full and also cut up into a few smaller parts. If necessary maybe an extra minute or two recording for each smaller part to smooth transitions in the cut up version without affecting the current flow of the longer episode.

    Listening to a 40 min podcast covering several issues is quite a commitment, and if one wants to only listen to one subject, a bit of a pain. Shorter single subject podcasts work better, though fine to record several with one panel.

    @rcs1000 has got this right. Even the Radiohead bits are not too long.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,834
    Didt Survation last have Labour well ahead.. These polls(any) are not worth relying on IMHO
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 20,111


    That's very volatile with +4s & -4s.....
    Not too hard to imagine the soft left having had enough of Labour over antisemitism and general wretchedness, though - and wandering off to the LibDems.....
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,668

    Vice-President Mike Pence has denied authorship, in which case it was composed to look as if he'd written it. As the BBC notes, it is not just the word lodestar but also the sentence structure that point that way:
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45435813

    Interesting analysis.

    I wonder if the short sentences points to a business background? When I worked for an American Corp the 'house style' was short sentences, short paragraphs with one point and 'one page memos'. Pence is a lawyer.
    It is possible. My first thought was that there must be software for this sort of textual analysis for authorship in both academia and the three-letter agencies. My second thought was that the latter probably also have software to alter compositions into the style of someone they want to frame.

    But Pence must still be favourite. It is his style and the vice-president cannot be sacked by the president (although Trump can choose a new running mate for 2020).
    Harder as you make it longer but personally I would rip complete sentences of other people's words, maybe get the odd relative to give me a sentence in their words. End up with a jumble of other peoples wording and just make it flow and where needed put the word Trump in there. Look for the occasional synonym as you are writing a sentence. Use normal words but just look at every word you usually use and feel free to use other ones where it isn't common. Writing style is a bit different but short sentences are fairly common. Also I guess with short sentences you don't really give much away. With longer sentences there is more construction and potential difference... I guess?

    Unless this is some intentional play or I have a higher opinion of Pence than I should there is no way he would have used the phrase lodestar. Clever people make mistakes admittedly but I would have scanned that article, along with maybe some incredibly trusted person (eg wife husband), incredibly carefully. Even rewritten it just to absorb every line again once finished.
    I don't know. The Hatton Garden robbers were caught despite owning the book Forensics for Dummies. Ken Livingstone was revealed as author of an anonymous anti-Blair article by his use of the word "grouplets". A recent NSA leaker was caught by the distinguishing dots added to documents by printers and photocopiers.

    So it is quite easy to believe most people would accept the newspaper's guarantee of anonymity and take no other precautions, even if they knew what precautions to take.
    Add to that the fact that most people can't recognise their own stylistic tics. But I don't think that the anonymous writer was the vice-president. It makes no sense.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 31,291
    edited September 8

    MPs take note:

    Conservative voters however were much more likely to back May over Johnson – 55% of Conservative voters backed May for best Prime Minister, with only 29% saying Johnson.

    Commenting on the findings, Survation Chief Executive Damian Lyons Lowe said:
    "The polling shows the public are largely unconcerned over revelations regarding Johnson's private life, and marginally prefer his Brexit plans over Theresa May’s - small comfort for Boris and his supporters.

    ‘However, it suggests "Prime Minister Johnson" would be a vote loser for the Conservative party among voters in general and Conservative voters significantly preferring Theresa May as Prime Minister to Johnson.

    ‘Despite the Prime Minister's poor favourability ratings and the public's clear view that Brexit negotiations are going badly, Boris Johnson, on the evidence, would not appear to be the candidate to improve the fortunes of the Conservative party.’
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,111
    interesting that several polls are putting LDs in double figures again.

    Lab and Tories neck and neck still, despite both parties attempts at seppukko.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,111

    Didt Survation last have Labour well ahead.. These polls(any) are not worth relying on IMHO
    Yes, this one is more inline with preceeding ones, just a bit of MOE it seems.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,474
    edited September 8


    That's very volatile with +4s & -4s.....
    Not too hard to imagine the soft left having had enough of Labour over antisemitism and general wretchedness, though - and wandering off to the LibDems.....
    It is not the soft left per se the old tankies around Corbyn need to worry about but younger and more educated supporters liable to be appalled by the courting of illiberal, racist and anti-gay regimes. Corbyn's opponents should look there, not at Venezuela or firehosed charges of antisemitism. Obviously there is a large overlap but it is a question of tone and zeitgeist rather than policy, which is implied by the label "soft left".
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 20,752
    Is it just me or does Chuka’s “call off the dogs” come across as a bit... pathetic? Please don’t hurt me, sir, please don’t hurt me.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 31,291
    Boris more/less likely to vote are particularly grim among Labour & Liberal previous voters - people presumably the Tories would wish to persuade:

    Likelihood of voting Con if Boris PM; more / no diff / less (net more minus less)

    Lab: 13 / 44 / 35 (-22)
    LibD: 8 / 35 / 51 (-43)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,868

    Vice-President Mike Pence has denied authorship, in which case it was composed to look as if he'd written it.

    It is possible. My first thought was that there must be software for this sort of textual analysis for authorship in both academia and the three-letter agencies. My second thought was that the latter probably also have software to alter compositions into the style of someone they want to frame.

    But Pence must still be favourite. It is his style and the vice-president cannot be sacked by the president (although Trump can choose a new running mate for 2020).
    Harder as you make it longer but personally I would rip complete sentences of other people's words, maybe get the odd relative to give me a sentence in their words. End up with a jumble of other peoples wording and just make it flow and where needed put the word Trump in there. Look for the occasional synonym as you are writing a sentence. Use normal words but just look at every word you usually use and feel free to use other ones where it isn't common. Writing style is a bit different but short sentences are fairly common. Also I guess with short sentences you don't really give much away. With longer sentences there is more construction and potential difference... I guess?

    Unless this is some intentional play or I have a higher opinion of Pence than I should there is no way he would have used the phrase lodestar. Clever people make mistakes admittedly but I would have scanned that article, along with maybe some incredibly trusted person (eg wife husband), incredibly carefully. Even rewritten it just to absorb every line again once finished.
    I don't know. The Hatton Garden robbers were caught despite owning the book Forensics for Dummies. Ken Livingstone was revealed as author of an anonymous anti-Blair article by his use of the word "grouplets". A recent NSA leaker was caught by the distinguishing dots added to documents by printers and photocopiers.

    So it is quite easy to believe most people would accept the newspaper's guarantee of anonymity and take no other precautions, even if they knew what precautions to take.
    Add to that the fact that most people can't recognise their own stylistic tics. But I don't think that the anonymous writer was the vice-president. It makes no sense.
    I can normally guess who has penned a pb article before the end, though in this case I thought it was probably David Herdson but could also be yourself. Stylistically you're similar though he is politically to the right of you.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,474

    I don't know. The Hatton Garden robbers were caught despite owning the book Forensics for Dummies. Ken Livingstone was revealed as author of an anonymous anti-Blair article by his use of the word "grouplets". A recent NSA leaker was caught by the distinguishing dots added to documents by printers and photocopiers.

    So it is quite easy to believe most people would accept the newspaper's guarantee of anonymity and take no other precautions, even if they knew what precautions to take.

    Add to that the fact that most people can't recognise their own stylistic tics. But I don't think that the anonymous writer was the vice-president. It makes no sense.
    It makes as much or as little sense for it being Pence as anyone else, since there is nothing new in the NYT op-ed that was not common gossip and explored in several books.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 1,609
    edited September 8

    Harder as you make it longer but personally I would rip complete sentences of other people's words, maybe get the odd relative to give me a sentence in their words. End up with a jumble of other peoples wording and just make it flow and where needed put the word Trump in there. Look for the occasional synonym as you are writing a sentence. Use normal words but just look at every word you usually use and feel free to use other ones where it isn't common. Writing style is a bit different but short sentences are fairly common. Also I guess with short sentences you don't really give much away. With longer sentences there is more construction and potential difference... I guess?

    Unless this is some intentional play or I have a higher opinion of Pence than I should there is no way he would have used the phrase lodestar. Clever people make mistakes admittedly but I would have scanned that article, along with maybe some incredibly trusted person (eg wife husband), incredibly carefully. Even rewritten it just to absorb every line again once finished.
    I don't know. The Hatton Garden robbers were caught despite owning the book Forensics for Dummies. Ken Livingstone was revealed as author of an anonymous anti-Blair article by his use of the word "grouplets". A recent NSA leaker was caught by the distinguishing dots added to documents by printers and photocopiers.

    So it is quite easy to believe most people would accept the newspaper's guarantee of anonymity and take no other precautions, even if they knew what precautions to take.
    If I'm doing something 'wrong' or at least something I don't want to get caught for then I am always taking precautions. Although if I am part of some resistance within the White House I probably wouldn't go shouting about it in a national newspaper, so I guess they are already past that point and a bit of a risk taker.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,990


    That's very volatile with +4s & -4s.....
    Not too hard to imagine the soft left having had enough of Labour over antisemitism and general wretchedness, though - and wandering off to the LibDems.....
    There’s got to be a reasonable chance of an MP or two defecting from Lab to LD over the Conference season, surely? If I were Uncle Vince I’d have been having a word in a few ears over the summer.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,990
    Charles said:

    Is it just me or does Chuka’s “call off the dogs” come across as a bit... pathetic? Please don’t hurt me, sir, please don’t hurt me.

    Several superfluous words there.
    “Does Chuka come across a bit... pathetic?” would have sufficed.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,978
    Mr. Charles, ha, I was thinking the same thing. Umunna and his ilk can condemn Corbyn, or leave the party, or bleat ineffectively. They're currently doing the latter.

    Tribal loyalty trumping intelligence or backbone is just pathetic. Reminds me a little of a Babylon 5 episode. An alien race, every so often, splits into two camps, chosen by chance, each preferring a different colour. Then they have a massive fight until one side wins. Because tribalism.

    Dr. Foxy, timestamps help with such a problem.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 31,291
    Charles said:

    Is it just me or does Chuka’s “call off the dogs” come across as a bit... pathetic? Please don’t hurt me, sir, please don’t hurt me.

    His tying in with Brexit is unlikely to get a sympathetic audience with Corbyn:

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/jeremy-corbyn/news/98067/chuka-umunna-calls-jeremy-corbyn-
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,837
    The question for me is why Marina Wheeler put up with it up until now.

    What was the straw that broke the camel's back? And why?
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 1,609

    OT

    Chris Leslie probably likely to have a no confidence vote soon, he is the name I had heard most from a while back along with Woodcock (could be some self selecting bias here as they were probably my 2 least favourite Labour MPs) he suffered a no confidence vote within one branch of the wider constituency by a decent ratio.

    He won't have won any fans among Magic Grandpa's devotees with his robust denunciation of Russia over the Salisbury poisonings.
    I think Labour members had broadly similar views to the Conservatives on Russia when it was polled so I doubt that would do him any harm, the 3 years prior to that might cause him a couple of issues though.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,868
    edited September 8

    Charles said:

    @Ishmael_Z FPT

    Re Elon Musk

    Peter Thiel is the person who deserves the credit for PayPal. You don’t hear much about him anymore because he’s not flavour of the month in California (he’s a Republican)

    Thiel founded Confirmity (a money transfer company) in 1998. It merged with Musk’s X.com (an idea for online banking in March 2000). Musk was fired in October 2000 and replaced by Thiel.

    eBay also deserves credit - they bought the start up in 2002 and developed the business we know today

    Musk has traded off PayPal for most of his career. He’s a good promoter (ie good at raising capital) but I’m not convinced that makes him a good businessman

    Tesla can’t produce on schedule abd loses money. A business that can’t scale is problematic. I don’t know enough about SpaceX.

    Pretty much agree with that. SpaceX faces a few problems (e.g. cost of BFR, the risk of Starlink,
    Musk's idea of bringing rapid development practices from software to rockets worked - just. However it's utterly failed in Tesla - the market is too large, and you are selling to hundreds of thousands of consumers, not a handful of large organisations. You can coachbuild a hundred items a year, but not a hundred thousand.

    It should also be noted that he has relied heavily on investment from his mates on alleged good terms, e.g. the lads at Google. This is unavailable to most businessmen.

    I really want to like Musk, and there is much to admire, but he needs to grow up a little. Replacing Tesla's board might be a good start ...
    The podcast with Rogan was enjoyable. A couple of things I note - first up he is an engineer not a businessman, or he is an innovator businessman but not a boardroom suit businessman. Tesla being publically owned, and publically owned companies basically requiring super suit businessmen really goes against his grain. This is fundamentally the issue he has being on Tesla's board.. he probably needs to carve out a slightly different role for himself there..
    Second - and this point might sound controversial but I think he has Asperger's. There is no filter with him, and Unsworths insult about the sub being stuck up his ass he has basically taken entirely literally. I have no idea if this helps him his law suit, he probably needs to be sued at this point quite honestly. The lack of filter may also have been the reasoning for the whole.Tesla private business. He probably was considering doing it bearing in mind his character. The rest of the board have overruled him though.
    Third, he is basically a good and optimistic person. He cares deeply about climate change in particular; he is a genius with more ideas springing into his head in a week than many people (I'd include myself here) have in a lifetime. And they are original ideas. However you want to label his brain function, it is wildly different to most other people's.
  • Interesting comparison.

    Paul Goodman, editor of the website Conservative Home, said that Mr Johnson’s latest marital turbulence would have limited consequences. “As far as the activists are concerned most of them have already discounted this in his share price,” he said. “The Conservative Party isn’t the model of tongue-clicking finger-wagging say it was at the time of [John] Profumo in [the early Sixties]. It could dent his ratings a bit but I doubt it could break them.”
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 20,111
    Sandpit said:


    That's very volatile with +4s & -4s.....
    Not too hard to imagine the soft left having had enough of Labour over antisemitism and general wretchedness, though - and wandering off to the LibDems.....
    There’s got to be a reasonable chance of an MP or two defecting from Lab to LD over the Conference season, surely? If I were Uncle Vince I’d have been having a word in a few ears over the summer.
    It would be interesting if Labour took a decisive hit in the polls. The Corbynistas take huge comfort from being level pegging with the Tories around 40% in the polls. If that were to materially change - so there was consistently a gap larger than at the 2017 election - then Labour's Softy Walter Tendency could point to them being doomed to another 5 plus years of Tory rule under Corbyn.

    Normally that might have some sway. But you have to think that the Corbynistas will just glide on, unbothered, saying "ah, but last time....he made up a much bigger gap...."
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,769

    Vice-President Mike Pence has denied authorship, in which case it was composed to look as if he'd written it. As the BBC notes, it is not just the word lodestar but also the sentence structure that point that way:
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45435813

    Interesting analysis.

    I wonder if the short sentences points to a business background? When I worked for an American Corp the 'house style' was short sentences, short paragraphs with one point and 'one page memos'. Pence is a lawyer.

    OT - did DavidL mention how he got on in his election yesterday?
    As I explained lawyers get paid by the hour and never like to do anything in a hurry. Voting is available until Tuesday at 3.00pm. I won't be there in fact as I will be in Court (occupational hazard) so I won't find out until the back of 4.00.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,111

    Charles said:

    Is it just me or does Chuka’s “call off the dogs” come across as a bit... pathetic? Please don’t hurt me, sir, please don’t hurt me.

    His tying in with Brexit is unlikely to get a sympathetic audience with Corbyn:

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/jeremy-corbyn/news/98067/chuka-umunna-calls-jeremy-corbyn-
    It may however go down well with the majority of Labour activists.

    Brexit is Corbyn's achillies heel. It is the area that he is most vulnerable on at Conference, and unlike Israel policy, it is current and matters. Brexit will be Jezza's downfall if he doesn't shift opinion.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,474

    Mr. Charles, ha, I was thinking the same thing. Umunna and his ilk can condemn Corbyn, or leave the party, or bleat ineffectively. They're currently doing the latter.

    Tribal loyalty trumping intelligence or backbone is just pathetic. Reminds me a little of a Babylon 5 episode. An alien race, every so often, splits into two camps, chosen by chance, each preferring a different colour. Then they have a massive fight until one side wins. Because tribalism.

    How does this differ from the endless bleating over Brexit in the Conservative Party, with both the ERG and the hardline Remainers doing little to fight for their cause, let alone defect, over what is probably the most nation-harming action a government could take (though whether the harm comes from staying in or getting out depends on your point of view)? Brexit is far more consequential than a Corbyn government on the evidence of Labour's mundane and mainstream 2017 manifesto.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,668
    Pulpstar said:


    I can normally guess who has penned a pb article before the end, though in this case I thought it was probably David Herdson but could also be yourself. Stylistically you're similar though he is politically to the right of you.

    I rarely comment on US politics below the line, never mind above the line. I don't think I know anything near enough about it to do so, given how many other far better informed people there are out there.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,111
    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    @Ishmael_Z FPT

    Re Elon Musk

    Peter Thiel is the person who deserves the credit for PayPal. You don’t hear much about him anymore because he’s not flavour of the month in California (he’s a Republican)

    Thiel founded Confirmity (a money transfer company) in 1998. It merged with Musk’s X.com (an idea for online banking in March 2000). Musk was fired in October 2000 and replaced by Thiel.

    eBay also deserves credit - they bought the start up in 2002 and developed the business we know today

    Musk has traded off PayPal for most of his career. He’s a good promoter (ie good at raising capital) but I’m not convinced that makes him a good businessman

    Tesla can’t produce on schedule abd loses money. A business that can’t scale is problematic. I don’t know enough about SpaceX.

    Pretty much agree with that. SpaceX faces a few problems
    It should also be noted that he has relied heavily on investment from his mates on alleged good terms, e.g. the lads at Google. This is unavailable to most businessmen.

    I really want to like Musk, and there is much to admire, but he needs to grow up a little. Replacing Tesla's board might be a good start ...
    The podcast with Rogan was enjoyable. A couple of things I note - first up he is an engineer not a businessman, or he is an innovator businessman but not a boardroom suit businessman. Tesla being publically owned, and publically owned companies basically requiring super suit businessmen really goes against his grain. This is fundamentally the issue he has being on Tesla's board.. he probably needs to carve out a slightly different role for himself there..
    Second - and this point might sound controversial but I think he has Asperger's. There is no filter with him, and Unsworths insult about the sub being stuck up his ass he has basically taken entirely literally. I have no idea if this helps him his law suit, he probably needs to be sued at this point quite honestly. The lack of filter may also have been the reasoning for the whole.Tesla private business. He probably was considering doing it bearing in mind his character. The rest of the board have overruled him though.
    Third, he is basically a good and optimistic person. He cares deeply about climate change in particular; he is a genius with more ideas springing into his head in a week than many people (I'd include myself here) have in a lifetime. And they are original ideas. However you want to label his brain function, it is wildly different to most other people's.
    I am not convinced by the third point, but the resemblance between the attention seeking, verbally incontinent, prickly egoist Musk and the Trump described in the header are there to be seen. I wonder if they are related?

  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 496
    edited September 8

    Pulpstar said:


    I can normally guess who has penned a pb article before the end, though in this case I thought it was probably David Herdson but could also be yourself. Stylistically you're similar though he is politically to the right of you.

    I rarely comment on US politics below the line, never mind above the line. I don't think I know anything near enough about it to do so, given how many other far better informed people there are out there.
    If knowing anything about anything was a condition for posting Political Betting would be considerably shorter.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,978
    Mr. JohnL, you think implementing the decision of the British people is worse than having the state media of a nation that executes people for being homosexual livestream the first step in deselecting an MP for not being loyal enough to a cult leader?

    It's a view.

    Personally, I like the right to political dissent, and dislike a media organisation banned from broadcasting in the UK for being too horrendous (must be ropey if they paid Corbyn to be on) filming the first stage of crushing someone for not genuflecting before the Cult.

    And that's before we get onto the deranged, socialist economic views of someone who used to praise Venezuela's approach. Tends not to do that now that the consequences of socialist insanity have been unleashed.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,740
    Pulpstar said:

    The podcast with Rogan was enjoyable. A couple of things I note - first up he is an engineer not a businessman, or he is an innovator businessman but not a boardroom suit businessman. Tesla being publically owned, and publically owned companies basically requiring super suit businessmen really goes against his grain. This is fundamentally the issue he has being on Tesla's board.. he probably needs to carve out. A slightly different role for himself there.
    Second - and this point might sound controversial but I think he has Asperger's. There is no filter with him, and Unsworths insult about the sun being stuck up his ass he has basically taken entirely literally. I have no idea if this helps him his law suit, he probably needs to be sued at this point quite honestly. The lack of filter may also have been the reasoning for the whole.Tesla private business. Be probably was considering doing it bearing in mind his character. The rest of the board have overruled him though.
    Third, he is basically a good and optimistic person. He cares deeply about climate change in particular; he is a genius with more ideas springing into his head in a week than many people (I'd include myself here) have in a lifetime. And they are original ideas. However you want to label his brain function, it is wildly different to most other people's.

    Hmmm. Thanks for that.

    "he is basically a good and optimistic person."

    I fail to see how that can be said from his public acts and utterances. Certainly his recent actions have not been 'good', and his treatment of his staff is not *good*, yet alone his wives.

    I'd also argue that saying we need to move a million people to Mars just in case Earth gets wiped out is not optimistic.

    "he is a genius with more ideas springing into his head in a week than many people"

    He might be a genius, but again I am unsure the second part of the sentence holds water. He may claim it does, but I'm far from convinced.

    Where he does have skill is to take ideas and run with them - he has a filter where most of us are put off by people saying: "You can't do that." He's also excellent at assembling small teams focused on a small problem, whilst he appears less good at managing massive teams.

    I think Musk does literally see himself as Tony Stark (and the filmmakers used him as a model for the character). Instead, he should model himself on Branson: a figurehead. with a canny idea for new markets and leave the real work to his underlings, e.g. Shotwell at SpaceX.

    But I'm just a pleb on t'Internet. I daresay he'll manage without my contributions.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,957

    Interesting comparison.

    Paul Goodman, editor of the website Conservative Home, said that Mr Johnson’s latest marital turbulence would have limited consequences. “As far as the activists are concerned most of them have already discounted this in his share price,” he said. “The Conservative Party isn’t the model of tongue-clicking finger-wagging say it was at the time of [John] Profumo in [the early Sixties]. It could dent his ratings a bit but I doubt it could break them.”

    He would say that, wouldn't he?
  • MJWMJW Posts: 487
    Scott_P said:
    Isn't that kind of what he'd want? Well I suppose if shifts against Brexit are to be believed Matt has nailed It!
  • Charles said:

    Is it just me or does Chuka’s “call off the dogs” come across as a bit... pathetic? Please don’t hurt me, sir, please don’t hurt me.

    Comes across to me as paving the way to exit. I now expect some kind of Labour breakaway next year after we have left the EU.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,868
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:



    The podcast with Rogan was enjoyable. A couple of things I note - first up he is an engineer not a businessman, or he is an innovator businessman but not a boardroom suit businessman. Tesla being publically owned, and publically owned companies basically requiring super suit businessmen really goes against his grain. This is fundamentally the issue he has being on Tesla's board.. he probably needs to carve out a slightly different role for himself there..
    Second - and this point might sound controversial but I think he has Asperger's. There is no filter with him, and Unsworths insult about the sub being stuck up his ass he has basically taken entirely literally. I have no idea if this helps him his law suit, he probably needs to be sued at this point quite honestly. The lack of filter may also have been the reasoning for the whole.Tesla private business. He probably was considering doing it bearing in mind his character. The rest of the board have overruled him though.
    Third, he is basically a good and optimistic person. He cares deeply about climate change in particular; he is a genius with more ideas springing into his head in a week than many people (I'd include myself here) have in a lifetime. And they are original ideas. However you want to label his brain function, it is wildly different to most other people's.

    I am not convinced by the third point, but the resemblance between the attention seeking, verbally incontinent, prickly egoist Musk and the Trump described in the header are there to be seen. I wonder if they are related?

    Fundamentally the world is better off if vehicles are electric compared to burning carbon for a fuel (The reserves won't last indefinitely), Musk thinks beyond his own lifespan and has created a company to try and do this.. Tesla may succeed, it may not - but it'll certainly be looked back on as a catalyst toward vehicle electrification a hundred years from now whatever else happens.
    Trump's made all his money out of essentially real estate inflation and golf courses.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,111
    Icarus said:

    Pulpstar said:


    I can normally guess who has penned a pb article before the end, though in this case I thought it was probably David Herdson but could also be yourself. Stylistically you're similar though he is politically to the right of you.

    I rarely comment on US politics below the line, never mind above the line. I don't think I know anything near enough about it to do so, given how many other far better informed people there are out there.
    If knowing anything about anything was a condition for posting Political Betting would be considerably shorter.
    Actually, one of the dangers of posting on PB is that there is nearly always someone who is well informed and knowledgeable, who will pick up on errors. There is a remarkable range of expertise and analytical ability here, though knowledge of the past does not always translate into predictive power, the key skill of a political bettor.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,769
    There are a lot of similarities between Corbyn and Trump, both daft, both capable of absurd behaviour and self delusion and both obstinate but the similarity that is most important for present purposes is that they have both reshaped their party and its membership in their own image. In both the Labour and Republican party many have left in disgust giving the feet of the sandals a good wash as they leave only to have their places taken and more so by acolytes of the great man for whom he can do no wrong.

    Trump is not dealing with the Republican party of McCain, Reagan and George H Bush; if he was he would never have won the nomination first time around. He is dealing with the Trump version of the Republican party and it adores him. Anyone taking that on is going to have a hell of a mountain to climb. Despite the Chuka type mumblers, wailing ineffectively in the background whilst remaining in the party, I seriously doubt whether Trump will even face a meaningful primary challenge. If he does, just like Corbyn, his slavering attack dogs will go for the throat.

    Winning the Presidency again is a tougher call but the advantages of incumbency in the US are immense and the US economy is being pumped with disgraceful and unsustainable deficits to deliver short term growth. I have a modest bet on his re-election and I am still pretty comfortable with that.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,474
    Icarus said:

    Pulpstar said:


    I can normally guess who has penned a pb article before the end, though in this case I thought it was probably David Herdson but could also be yourself. Stylistically you're similar though he is politically to the right of you.

    I rarely comment on US politics below the line, never mind above the line. I don't think I know anything near enough about it to do so, given how many other far better informed people there are out there.
    If knowing anything about anything was a condition for posting Political Betting would be considerably shorter.
    Some of us may know nothing but at least betting on different outcomes involves some degree of analysis, and reminds you that there is at least some chance of the thing you oppose coming to pass. That is the difference between knowing that Boris will (or will never) be in Downing Street, and thinking that it is more or less likely than the 20 per cent chance implied by his current 4/1 odds against.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 1,609

    Mr. JohnL, you think implementing the decision of the British people is worse than having the state media of a nation that executes people for being homosexual livestream the first step in deselecting an MP for not being loyal enough to a cult leader?

    It's a view.

    Personally, I like the right to political dissent, and dislike a media organisation banned from broadcasting in the UK for being too horrendous (must be ropey if they paid Corbyn to be on) filming the first stage of crushing someone for not genuflecting before the Cult.

    And that's before we get onto the deranged, socialist economic views of someone who used to praise Venezuela's approach. Tends not to do that now that the consequences of socialist insanity have been unleashed.

    I may have been misled but I understand that having press TV there wasn't arranged by the Labour party / Corbyn. Brexit on the other hand would be decided by politicians.

    As for liking the right to political dissent that is something you have in common with Corbyn supporters.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,111
    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:



    The podcast with Rogan was enjoyable. A couple of things I note - first up he is an engineer not a businessman, or he is an innovator businessman but not a boardroom suit businessman. Tesla being publically owned, and publically owned companies basically requiring super suit businessmen really goes against his grain.

    I am not convinced by the third point, but the resemblance between the attention seeking, verbally incontinent, prickly egoist Musk and the Trump described in the header are there to be seen. I wonder if they are related?

    Fundamentally the world is better off if vehicles are electric compared to burning carbon for a fuel (The reserves won't last indefinitely), Musk thinks beyond his own lifespan and has created a company to try and do this.. Tesla may succeed, it may not - but it'll certainly be looked back on as a catalyst toward vehicle electrification a hundred years from now whatever else happens.
    Trump's made all his money out of essentially real estate inflation and golf courses.
    I agree that Musk's business is rather more socially useful, though he is far from the only one who sees electric vehicles as the future.

    I can detect no useful human virtue in Trump, who is a deeply morally corrupt social parasite, albeit in financial terms a successful one, like a giant tapeworm in the body of US democracy.

  • mattmatt Posts: 2,041
    DavidL said:

    Vice-President Mike Pence has denied authorship, in which case it was composed to look as if he'd written it. As the BBC notes, it is not just the word lodestar but also the sentence structure that point that way:
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45435813

    Interesting analysis.

    I wonder if the short sentences points to a business background? When I worked for an American Corp the 'house style' was short sentences, short paragraphs with one point and 'one page memos'. Pence is a lawyer.

    OT - did DavidL mention how he got on in his election yesterday?
    As I explained lawyers get paid by the hour and never like to do anything in a hurry. Voting is available until Tuesday at 3.00pm. I won't be there in fact as I will be in Court (occupational hazard) so I won't find out until the back of 4.00.
    Lawyers internally cost by the hour. I’m not sure about payment (no, I’m certain).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,978
    Mr. Observer, I hope you're right, but fear the wish is the father of the word.

    Mr. Jezziah, I'm not sufficiently friendly with Hamas, historically ignorant, or economically illiterate enough to be a Corbyn supporter.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 11,355

    The question for me is why Marina Wheeler put up with it up until now.

    What was the straw that broke the camel's back? And why?


    I will hazard a guess. Their youngest child is 19 and, presumably, off to university. So a woman looks around, sees her children safely out of the home and into adulthood, looks at a husband carrying on being a hurtful, selfish arse and asks herself whether she wants to keep on putting up with this or whether she would like a life for herself.

    She could find a lover for herself. There are plenty of 50+ women who do this. Or she could decide she wants the opportunity to have a new life. Plenty of women at that stage start divorce proceedings.

    No idea whether this is the truth or not. But women will put up with a lot when children are young but not once the child-rearing years are over. They get a second wind, have much to offer and don’t see why this should be wasted on someone who no longer deserves it.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 20,752

    The question for me is why Marina Wheeler put up with it up until now.

    What was the straw that broke the camel's back? And why?

    He promised that the last one was going to be the last one. He got caught again.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 20,752
    DavidL said:

    Vice-President Mike Pence has denied authorship, in which case it was composed to look as if he'd written it. As the BBC notes, it is not just the word lodestar but also the sentence structure that point that way:
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45435813

    Interesting analysis.

    I wonder if the short sentences points to a business background? When I worked for an American Corp the 'house style' was short sentences, short paragraphs with one point and 'one page memos'. Pence is a lawyer.

    OT - did DavidL mention how he got on in his election yesterday?
    As I explained lawyers get paid by the hour and never like to do anything in a hurry. Voting is available until Tuesday at 3.00pm. I won't be there in fact as I will be in Court (occupational hazard) so I won't find out until the back of 4.00.
    Gosh who are you going to have handle the spin room for you?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,640
    Charles said:

    Is it just me or does Chuka’s “call off the dogs” come across as a bit... pathetic? Please don’t hurt me, sir, please don’t hurt me.

    No he is a blubbering jelly , totally useless and should be among the first in the tumbrils when the cull starts.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,111
    Cyclefree said:

    The question for me is why Marina Wheeler put up with it up until now.

    What was the straw that broke the camel's back? And why?


    I will hazard a guess. Their youngest child is 19 and, presumably, off to university. So a woman looks around, sees her children safely out of the home and into adulthood, looks at a husband carrying on being a hurtful, selfish arse and asks herself whether she wants to keep on putting up with this or whether she would like a life for herself.

    She could find a lover for herself. There are plenty of 50+ women who do this. Or she could decide she wants the opportunity to have a new life. Plenty of women at that stage start divorce proceedings.

    No idea whether this is the truth or not. But women will put up with a lot when children are young but not once the child-rearing years are over. They get a second wind, have much to offer and don’t see why this should be wasted on someone who no longer deserves it.
    Yes, the peak times for divorce are a few years into a marriage, and also a quarter century in. For the latter a good number of couples find that when the children leave home, they have nothing left in common, chuck in a bit of mid life crisis on either side and its a wonder that so many marriages continue.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,769
    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    Vice-President Mike Pence has denied authorship, in which case it was composed to look as if he'd written it. As the BBC notes, it is not just the word lodestar but also the sentence structure that point that way:
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45435813

    Interesting analysis.

    I wonder if the short sentences points to a business background? When I worked for an American Corp the 'house style' was short sentences, short paragraphs with one point and 'one page memos'. Pence is a lawyer.

    OT - did DavidL mention how he got on in his election yesterday?
    As I explained lawyers get paid by the hour and never like to do anything in a hurry. Voting is available until Tuesday at 3.00pm. I won't be there in fact as I will be in Court (occupational hazard) so I won't find out until the back of 4.00.
    Gosh who are you going to have handle the spin room for you?
    I hadn't really thought of that. I'm a bit new at this politics lark.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,640

    Mr. JohnL, you think implementing the decision of the British people is worse than having the state media of a nation that executes people for being homosexual livestream the first step in deselecting an MP for not being loyal enough to a cult leader?

    It's a view.

    Personally, I like the right to political dissent, and dislike a media organisation banned from broadcasting in the UK for being too horrendous (must be ropey if they paid Corbyn to be on) filming the first stage of crushing someone for not genuflecting before the Cult.

    And that's before we get onto the deranged, socialist economic views of someone who used to praise Venezuela's approach. Tends not to do that now that the consequences of socialist insanity have been unleashed.

    On the other hand MD, many MP's have sat in safe seats for 20, 30 , 40 years and did absolutely nothing other than line their pockets and enjoy subsidised meals and drink. The whole system needs shaking up given only a small minority of seats are ever competed for , the rest are just gravy trains for the lucky person selected. Time we had real elections where votes counted.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 20,752
    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    Vice-President Mike Pence has denied authorship, in which case it was composed to look as if he'd written it. As the BBC notes, it is not just the word lodestar but also the sentence structure that point that way:
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45435813

    Interesting analysis.

    I wonder if the short sentences points to a business background? When I worked for an American Corp the 'house style' was short sentences, short paragraphs with one point and 'one page memos'. Pence is a lawyer.

    OT - did DavidL mention how he got on in his election yesterday?
    As I explained lawyers get paid by the hour and never like to do anything in a hurry. Voting is available until Tuesday at 3.00pm. I won't be there in fact as I will be in Court (occupational hazard) so I won't find out until the back of 4.00.
    Gosh who are you going to have handle the spin room for you?
    I hadn't really thought of that. I'm a bit new at this politics lark.
    @malcolmg would have an impact
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,769
    malcolmg said:

    Mr. JohnL, you think implementing the decision of the British people is worse than having the state media of a nation that executes people for being homosexual livestream the first step in deselecting an MP for not being loyal enough to a cult leader?

    It's a view.

    Personally, I like the right to political dissent, and dislike a media organisation banned from broadcasting in the UK for being too horrendous (must be ropey if they paid Corbyn to be on) filming the first stage of crushing someone for not genuflecting before the Cult.

    And that's before we get onto the deranged, socialist economic views of someone who used to praise Venezuela's approach. Tends not to do that now that the consequences of socialist insanity have been unleashed.

    On the other hand MD, many MP's have sat in safe seats for 20, 30 , 40 years and did absolutely nothing other than line their pockets and enjoy subsidised meals and drink. The whole system needs shaking up given only a small minority of seats are ever competed for , the rest are just gravy trains for the lucky person selected. Time we had real elections where votes counted.
    One of the few good things about the yellow wave of 2015 in Scotland was the number of thick, lazy, self indulgent time servers that were swept away. We have been left with the situation that there are few truly safe seats in Scotland (as Salmond for one found to his cost). That is a good thing. England needs a similar shake up.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,640
    matt said:

    DavidL said:

    Vice-President Mike Pence has denied authorship, in which case it was composed to look as if he'd written it. As the BBC notes, it is not just the word lodestar but also the sentence structure that point that way:
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45435813

    Interesting analysis.

    I wonder if the short sentences points to a business background? When I worked for an American Corp the 'house style' was short sentences, short paragraphs with one point and 'one page memos'. Pence is a lawyer.

    OT - did DavidL mention how he got on in his election yesterday?
    As I explained lawyers get paid by the hour and never like to do anything in a hurry. Voting is available until Tuesday at 3.00pm. I won't be there in fact as I will be in Court (occupational hazard) so I won't find out until the back of 4.00.
    Lawyers internally cost by the hour. I’m not sure about payment (no, I’m certain).
    David, is it a lottery to see who represents Alex and therefore gets the pot of gold.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,165
    Foxy said:



    I agree that Musk's business is rather more socially useful, though he is far from the only one who sees electric vehicles as the future.

    I can detect no useful human virtue in Trump, who is a deeply morally corrupt social parasite, albeit in financial terms a successful one, like a giant tapeworm in the body of US democracy.

    Trump is at heart thoroughly pragmatic - he adopts positions that he thinks will benefit him and he likes his self-built reputation as a clever dealer. Other things being equal, keeping the peace is popular. So we might find that more or less by accident he would initiate a more constructive relationship with someone (Russia, China, North Korea, even Iran?) who an ideologue would confront at all costs. I agree it's thin gruel, but I'm not sure I would rather have Spence.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,868
    edited September 8


    Hmmm. Thanks for that.
    "he is basically a good and optimistic person."
    I fail to see how that can be said from his public acts and utterances. Certainly his recent actions have not been 'good', and his treatment of his staff is not *good*, yet alone his wives.

    He's probably horrendous to work for or live with, he's driven as shit and doesn't mind working every hour of the day though - he expects his staff to buy into his work ethic. With SpaceX, looked what they've achieved thus far - landing rockets and a rate (And value for money) of launch that no other company has come close to. That requires hellaciously dedicated staff.
    Running Tesla has proven even harder than sending rockets up for him, see also my previous point 2 about his lack of filter. He's the last person I would seek out a job with quite honestly, say I was an aerospace engineer... I'd be much happier with a job at ULA or NASA.


    I'd also argue that saying we need to move a million people to Mars just in case Earth gets wiped out is not optimistic.

    I think he's made this up quite honestly. If we're ever truly going to become an interstellar species though, the first step is Mars. It's more of the whole Everest/Marianas Trench/1969 moon landing that appeals. The illustrations of the High Frontier, the childish sense of wonder that one day we can be amongst the stars... obviously we're nowhere near that yet - so he's set himself the goal of creating a martian colony; and hey he's working to stop earth having the runaway Venus problem which another million years of fossil fuel burning would probably bring about with Tesla.
    The visions of Sagan, Gerard O'Neill, the way humanity managed to go fricking backwards in space terms after Apollo - thats what drives him.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,868
    edited September 8


    "he is a genius with more ideas springing into his head in a week than many people"
    He might be a genius, but again I am unsure the second part of the sentence holds water. He may claim it does, but I'm far from convinced.

    It does compared to myself, maybe I'm just short on original ideas :(


    Where he does have skill is to take ideas and run with them - he has a filter where most of us are put off by people saying: "You can't do that." He's also excellent at assembling small teams focused on a small problem, whilst he appears less good at managing massive teams.

    Oh yes for sure, management is not his strength !


    I think Musk does literally see himself as Tony Stark (and the filmmakers used him as a model for the character). Instead, he should model himself on Branson: a figurehead. with a canny idea for new markets and leave the real work to his underlings, e.g. Shotwell at SpaceX.

    Oh God the last thing we need is another Branson ! Certainly he should leave all the management and board stuff to his underlings though !


    But I'm just a pleb on t'Internet. I daresay he'll manage without my contributions.

    Hah, mine to.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,640
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    Mr. JohnL, you think implementing the decision of the British people is worse than having the state media of a nation that executes people for being homosexual livestream the first step in deselecting an MP for not being loyal enough to a cult leader?

    It's a view.

    Personally, I like the right to political dissent, and dislike a media organisation banned from broadcasting in the UK for being too horrendous (must be ropey if they paid Corbyn to be on) filming the first stage of crushing someone for not genuflecting before the Cult.

    And that's before we get onto the deranged, socialist economic views of someone who used to praise Venezuela's approach. Tends not to do that now that the consequences of socialist insanity have been unleashed.

    On the other hand MD, many MP's have sat in safe seats for 20, 30 , 40 years and did absolutely nothing other than line their pockets and enjoy subsidised meals and drink. The whole system needs shaking up given only a small minority of seats are ever competed for , the rest are just gravy trains for the lucky person selected. Time we had real elections where votes counted.
    One of the few good things about the yellow wave of 2015 in Scotland was the number of thick, lazy, self indulgent time servers that were swept away. We have been left with the situation that there are few truly safe seats in Scotland (as Salmond for one found to his cost). That is a good thing. England needs a similar shake up.
    It was long overdue, Labour were worse than the Mafia.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,769
    malcolmg said:

    matt said:

    DavidL said:

    Vice-President Mike Pence has denied authorship, in which case it was composed to look as if he'd written it. As the BBC notes, it is not just the word lodestar but also the sentence structure that point that way:
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45435813

    Interesting analysis.

    I wonder if the short sentences points to a business background? When I worked for an American Corp the 'house style' was short sentences, short paragraphs with one point and 'one page memos'. Pence is a lawyer.

    OT - did DavidL mention how he got on in his election yesterday?
    As I explained lawyers get paid by the hour and never like to do anything in a hurry. Voting is available until Tuesday at 3.00pm. I won't be there in fact as I will be in Court (occupational hazard) so I won't find out until the back of 4.00.
    Lawyers internally cost by the hour. I’m not sure about payment (no, I’m certain).
    David, is it a lottery to see who represents Alex and therefore gets the pot of gold.
    No, I understand Ronny Clancey QC has already won that. Whether he managed to negotiate a share of the fund as a fee I don’t know.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,474
    edited September 8

    Mr. JohnL, you think implementing the decision of the British people is worse than having the state media of a nation that executes people for being homosexual livestream the first step in deselecting an MP for not being loyal enough to a cult leader?

    It's a view.

    You misread it. For the two extremes in the Conservative Party, Brexit is either the path to the sunlit uplands or will cause massive economic and social harm -- yet the MPs who sincerely believe either of these things are taking no significant action. That's the point.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,474
    edited September 8
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:



    The podcast with Rogan was enjoyable. A couple of things I note - first up he is an engineer not a businessman, or he is an innovator businessman but not a boardroom suit businessman. Tesla being publically owned, and publically owned companies basically requiring super suit businessmen really goes against his grain.

    I am not convinced by the third point, but the resemblance between the attention seeking, verbally incontinent, prickly egoist Musk and the Trump described in the header are there to be seen. I wonder if they are related?

    Fundamentally the world is better off if vehicles are electric compared to burning carbon for a fuel (The reserves won't last indefinitely), Musk thinks beyond his own lifespan and has created a company to try and do this.. Tesla may succeed, it may not - but it'll certainly be looked back on as a catalyst toward vehicle electrification a hundred years from now whatever else happens.
    Trump's made all his money out of essentially real estate inflation and golf courses.
    I agree that Musk's business is rather more socially useful, though he is far from the only one who sees electric vehicles as the future.

    I can detect no useful human virtue in Trump, who is a deeply morally corrupt social parasite, albeit in financial terms a successful one, like a giant tapeworm in the body of US democracy.

    To be fair to Trump, he did play a large part in rebuilding and regenerating New York, albeit with large subsidies.

    ETA Musk, another subsidy junkie, might prove more significant as a maker of batteries than cars.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,978
    Mr. JohnL, my mistake.

    I suspect both sides fear they'll lose if they try to move and are paralysed. However, that is still qualitatively different to having the party permanently in the hands of the likes of Corbyn.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,978
    F1: potentially bwoah news: rumour going around Raikkonen will stay for one more year. Leclerc hangs about at Sauber but on a Ferrari-sized salary.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,868
    edited September 8
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 20,111
    edited September 8

    Mr. JohnL, you think implementing the decision of the British people is worse than having the state media of a nation that executes people for being homosexual livestream the first step in deselecting an MP for not being loyal enough to a cult leader?

    It's a view.

    You misread it. For the two extremes in the Conservative Party, Brexit is either the path to the sunlit uplands or will cause massive economic and social harm -- yet the MPs who sincerely believe either of these things are taking no significant action. That's the point.
    I think you'll actually find that the different wings of the Brexit debate in the Conservative Party are arguing their corner, to make sure the final outcome doesn't go to the other extreme. There is no Conservative Party line other than Brexit in some form has to be delivered. And they are fighting because it matters to their respective Referendum voters in the country.

    Compare and contrast with the Labour Party, who are absent from the Brexit debate, instead spending all their time deciding just how racist they are allowed to be. And then deselecting those they think aren't allowing them to be racist enough.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,990

    F1: potentially bwoah news: rumour going around Raikkonen will stay for one more year. Leclerc hangs about at Sauber but on a Ferrari-sized salary.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 20,752
    Pulpstar said:


    "he is a genius with more ideas springing into his head in a week than many people"
    He might be a genius, but again I am unsure the second part of the sentence holds water. He may claim it does, but I'm far from convinced.

    It does compared to myself, maybe I'm just short on original ideas :(


    Where he does have skill is to take ideas and run with them - he has a filter where most of us are put off by people saying: "You can't do that." He's also excellent at assembling small teams focused on a small problem, whilst he appears less good at managing massive teams.

    Oh yes for sure, management is not his strength !


    I think Musk does literally see himself as Tony Stark (and the filmmakers used him as a model for the character). Instead, he should model himself on Branson: a figurehead. with a canny idea for new markets and leave the real work to his underlings, e.g. Shotwell at SpaceX.

    Oh God the last thing we need is another Branson ! Certainly he should leave all the management and board stuff to his underlings though !


    But I'm just a pleb on t'Internet. I daresay he'll manage without my contributions.

    Hah, mine to.
    Branson is not a good man but a shark.

    Other people comes to him with their ideas, he rents them his brand and then screws then on the equity. See the history of Virgin Atlantic as a good case study.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,165
    Pulpstar said:


    Hmmm. Thanks for that.
    "he is basically a good and optimistic person."
    I fail to see how that can be said from his public acts and utterances. Certainly his recent actions have not been 'good', and his treatment of his staff is not *good*, yet alone his wives.

    He's probably horrendous to work for or live with, he's driven as shit and doesn't mind working every hour of the day though - he expects his staff to buy into his work ethic. With SpaceX, looked what they've achieved thus far - landing rockets and a rate (And value for money) of launch that no other company has come close to. That requires hellaciously dedicated staff.
    Running Tesla has proven even harder than sending rockets up for him, see also my previous point 2 about his lack of filter. He's the last person I would seek out a job with quite honestly, say I was an aerospace engineer... I'd be much happier with a job at ULA or NASA.


    I'd also argue that saying we need to move a million people to Mars just in case Earth gets wiped out is not optimistic.

    I think he's made this up quite honestly. If we're ever truly going to become an interstellar species though, the first step is Mars. It's more of the whole Everest/Marianas Trench/1969 moon landing that appeals. The illustrations of the High Frontier, the childish sense of wonder that one day we can be amongst the stars... obviously we're nowhere near that yet - so he's set himself the goal of creating a martian colony; and hey he's working to stop earth having the runaway Venus problem which another million years of fossil fuel burning would probably bring about with Tesla.
    The visions of Sagan, Gerard O'Neill, the way humanity managed to go fricking backwards in space terms after Apollo - thats what drives him.
    I have a cousin who works for Tesla and has had a couple of private sessions with him - he seems quite positive about him. My cousin is basically an equable techie who will judge bosses by their interest in technological progress and new ideas, rather than more conventional things like praise, frequency of 1-1s, promotion paths, etc. Perhaps most Tesla staff are like that?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 20,111
    Foxy said:

    Icarus said:

    Pulpstar said:


    I can normally guess who has penned a pb article before the end, though in this case I thought it was probably David Herdson but could also be yourself. Stylistically you're similar though he is politically to the right of you.

    I rarely comment on US politics below the line, never mind above the line. I don't think I know anything near enough about it to do so, given how many other far better informed people there are out there.
    If knowing anything about anything was a condition for posting Political Betting would be considerably shorter.
    Actually, one of the dangers of posting on PB is that there is nearly always someone who is well informed and knowledgeable, who will pick up on errors. There is a remarkable range of expertise and analytical ability here, though knowledge of the past does not always translate into predictive power, the key skill of a political bettor.
    The expertise that Mike has accumulated on here is second to none. And by the measure of modern internet interaction, this place is so damned polite in pointing out when someone has erred. Really, when you look at the quality of under the line comments on Twitter, they are infantile compared to here. We even managae to talk about Israel and pineapple on pizzas without descending to "you smell of wee!" insults. (OK, maybe not so much on pineapple on pizza....)

    This place could probably run the country quite satisfactorily, avoiding many of the pratfalls that our current crap of politicians seem intent to engage in. But it wouldn't be as much fun as leading the lives we do.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,165
    Foxy said:



    Yes, the peak times for divorce are a few years into a marriage, and also a quarter century in. For the latter a good number of couples find that when the children leave home, they have nothing left in common, chuck in a bit of mid life crisis on either side and its a wonder that so many marriages continue.

    It's like the old joke about the pensioners who go to the priest to say they want to divorce after 50 years of marriage.

    "But why now, after so many decades together?"
    "Well, we thought we should wait for the children to die."
  • Interesting comparison.

    Paul Goodman, editor of the website Conservative Home, said that Mr Johnson’s latest marital turbulence would have limited consequences. “As far as the activists are concerned most of them have already discounted this in his share price,” he said. “The Conservative Party isn’t the model of tongue-clicking finger-wagging say it was at the time of [John] Profumo in [the early Sixties]. It could dent his ratings a bit but I doubt it could break them.”

    He would say that, wouldn't he?
    I doff my hat to you sir.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 17,946
    edited September 8
    Good morning everyone. See Chuka is pleading with Corbyn to call off the dogs and it does sound rather pathetic

    However, I would suggest he hasn't done this without support from colleagues and that it is a preamble to the conference and the attempt they are making to get a peoples vote (come on be honest, call it a second referendum) adopted as party policy.

    When this inevitably crashes that is the moment for a mass walkout from Corbyn's party. Remember 205 labour mps voted for the definition, if a good number of them walked away it would be a big moment.

    Indeed, Sky suggested this morning that Brexit and the second referendum was the only thing holding the party together
This discussion has been closed.