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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s tantrums won’t cost him the presidency – yet

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957

    Good morning everyone. See Chuka is pleading with Corbyn to call off the dogs and it does sound rather pathetic

    However, I would suggest he hasn't done this without support from colleagues and that it is a preamble to the conference and the attempt they are making to get a peoples vote (come on be honest, call it a second referendum) adopted as party policy.

    When this inevitably crashes that is the moment for a mass walkout from Corbyn's party. Remember 205 labour mps voted for the definition, if a good number of them walked away it would be a big moment.

    Indeed, Sky suggested this morning that Brexit and the second referendum was the only thing holding tha party together

    Be interesting to know if there was any degree of unity amongst Labour MPs on what form that Cheats Charter, er sorry, Second Referendum should take. Would those whose seats voted to Leave be OK with a Leave with No Deal/Leave with May's Final Deal choice - or are they insisting that any second vote should masquerade as an attempt to stop Brexit completely?
  • Good morning everyone. See Chuka is pleading with Corbyn to call off the dogs and it does sound rather pathetic

    However, I would suggest he hasn't done this without support from colleagues and that it is a preamble to the conference and the attempt they are making to get a peoples vote (come on be honest, call it a second referendum) adopted as party policy.

    When this inevitably crashes that is the moment for a mass walkout from Corbyn's party. Remember 205 labour mps voted for the definition, if a good number of them walked away it would be a big moment.

    Indeed, Sky suggested this morning that Brexit and the second referendum was the only thing holding tha party together

    Be interesting to know if there was any degree of unity amongst Labour MPs on what form that Cheats Charter, er sorry, Second Referendum should take. Would those whose seats voted to Leave be OK with a Leave with No Deal/Leave with May's Final Deal choice - or are they insisting that any second vote should masquerade as an attempt to stop Brexit completely?
    I think it is more than likely it is a vehicle to stop Brexit, hence why they describe it as a peoples vote
  • Chuka's speech in half an hour.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670

    Chuka's speech in half an hour.

    It will be a lot of Hogwash G, the man is a political pygmy and wobblier than a soft jelly. Time he put his sandals on and joined the fibbing Lib Dums.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957

    Good morning everyone. See Chuka is pleading with Corbyn to call off the dogs and it does sound rather pathetic

    However, I would suggest he hasn't done this without support from colleagues and that it is a preamble to the conference and the attempt they are making to get a peoples vote (come on be honest, call it a second referendum) adopted as party policy.

    When this inevitably crashes that is the moment for a mass walkout from Corbyn's party. Remember 205 labour mps voted for the definition, if a good number of them walked away it would be a big moment.

    Indeed, Sky suggested this morning that Brexit and the second referendum was the only thing holding the party together

    I think the big moment comes in October when Corbyn has another go at introducing his wording on IHRA - and this time the newly-constituted NEC supports it. THAT is the time for the mass of MPs to walk away from Corbyn's doomed Labour. Probably when Mike is away for a long weekend....
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    Good morning everyone. See Chuka is pleading with Corbyn to call off the dogs and it does sound rather pathetic

    However, I would suggest he hasn't done this without support from colleagues and that it is a preamble to the conference and the attempt they are making to get a peoples vote (come on be honest, call it a second referendum) adopted as party policy.

    When this inevitably crashes that is the moment for a mass walkout from Corbyn's party. Remember 205 labour mps voted for the definition, if a good number of them walked away it would be a big moment.

    Indeed, Sky suggested this morning that Brexit and the second referendum was the only thing holding tha party together

    Be interesting to know if there was any degree of unity amongst Labour MPs on what form that Cheats Charter, er sorry, Second Referendum should take. Would those whose seats voted to Leave be OK with a Leave with No Deal/Leave with May's Final Deal choice - or are they insisting that any second vote should masquerade as an attempt to stop Brexit completely?
    I thought it was the "First Referendum" that was the Cheats` Charter. What we need now is a democratic decision on something where the details are known to everybody, not a pig in a poke, which in in any case manipulated by the Russians and Tories in their pay.
  • Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:


    "he is a genius with more ideas springing into his head in a week than many people"
    He might be a genius, but again I am unsure the second part of the sentence holds water. He may claim it does, but I'm far from convinced.

    It does compared to myself, maybe I'm just short on original ideas :(


    Where he does have skill is to take ideas and run with them - he has a filter where most of us are put off by people saying: "You can't do that." He's also excellent at assembling small teams focused on a small problem, whilst he appears less good at managing massive teams.

    Oh yes for sure, management is not his strength !


    I think Musk does literally see himself as Tony Stark (and the filmmakers used him as a model for the character). Instead, he should model himself on Branson: a figurehead. with a canny idea for new markets and leave the real work to his underlings, e.g. Shotwell at SpaceX.

    Oh God the last thing we need is another Branson ! Certainly he should leave all the management and board stuff to his underlings though !


    But I'm just a pleb on t'Internet. I daresay he'll manage without my contributions.

    Hah, mine to.
    Branson is not a good man but a shark.

    Other people comes to him with their ideas, he rents them his brand and then screws then on the equity. See the history of Virgin Atlantic as a good case study.
    Again I agree - i am not a fan of Branson. However he has been successful in developing himself as a brand, which imo is where Musk should go. Just as long as he does not brand a perfume.... eau de musk ...
  • He is in some difficulty already with the party with a meeting next week over the organisation of the constituency being hosted by the chairman of the Welsh conservatives and the involvement of Brandon Lewis. There is an urgent need to end a bitter feud with fellow conservative David Jones in the next door constituency, who of course is a hard line Brexiteer.

    Bebb also used to be in Plaid Cymru

    He is my constituency MP
  • malcolmg said:

    Chuka's speech in half an hour.

    It will be a lot of Hogwash G, the man is a political pygmy and wobblier than a soft jelly. Time he put his sandals on and joined the fibbing Lib Dums.
    You seem to be in good form this morning Malc.

    What a mess we are all in.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,558

    Pulpstar said:


    I think he's made this up quite honestly. If we're ever truly going to become an interstellar species though, the first step is Mars. It's more of the whole Everest/Marianas Trench/1969 moon landing that appeals. The illustrations of the High Frontier, the childish sense of wonder that one day we can be amongst the stars... obviously we're nowhere near that yet - so he's set himself the goal of creating a martian colony; and hey he's working to stop earth having the runaway Venus problem which another million years of fossil fuel burning would probably bring about with Tesla.
    The visions of Sagan, Gerard O'Neill, the way humanity managed to go fricking backwards in space terms after Apollo - thats what drives him.

    I have a cousin who works for Tesla and has had a couple of private sessions with him - he seems quite positive about him. My cousin is basically an equable techie who will judge bosses by their interest in technological progress and new ideas, rather than more conventional things like praise, frequency of 1-1s, promotion paths, etc. Perhaps most Tesla staff are like that?
    I think the earlier comment about the Asperger’s is likely correct, however dubious it might be to diagnose at a distance. I’ve come across a couple of people who have that, mixed with the phenomenal energy Musk has, and for better or worse they get stuff done...

    While his management skills leave a great deal to be desired, I think those writing off Tesla are quite wrong. To go from nothing to outselling Audi, BMW and Mercedes (and that’s all cars, not electric vehicles) in the US market is on its own is a remarkable achievement.
    The company has a capacity to,pproduce its own batteries which is beyond anything it’s western competitors will be able to do for several years. Batteries are the limiting element in EV production, so that gives them a space in which to establish themselves as a major manufacturer.

    The company represents a straightforward gamble which may or may not succeed, and I’m not betting on the outcome. What it has done is ensure the futures of electric vehicles happens soon. Daimler, for example, is committing $15bn to try to catch up (though the serious competition is likely from China).
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:


    I think he's made this up quite honestly. If we're ever truly going to become an interstellar species though, the first step is Mars. It's more of the whole Everest/Marianas Trench/1969 moon landing that appeals. The illustrations of the High Frontier, the childish sense of wonder that one day we can be amongst the stars... obviously we're nowhere near that yet - so he's set himself the goal of creating a martian colony; and hey he's working to stop earth having the runaway Venus problem which another million years of fossil fuel burning would probably bring about with Tesla.
    The visions of Sagan, Gerard O'Neill, the way humanity managed to go fricking backwards in space terms after Apollo - thats what drives him.

    I have a cousin who works for Tesla and has had a couple of private sessions with him - he seems quite positive about him. My cousin is basically an equable techie who will judge bosses by their interest in technological progress and new ideas, rather than more conventional things like praise, frequency of 1-1s, promotion paths, etc. Perhaps most Tesla staff are like that?
    I think the earlier comment about the Asperger’s is likely correct, however dubious it might be to diagnose at a distance. I’ve come across a couple of people who have that, mixed with the phenomenal energy Musk has, and for better or worse they get stuff done...

    While his management skills leave a great deal to be desired, I think those writing off Tesla are quite wrong. To go from nothing to outselling Audi, BMW and Mercedes (and that’s all cars, not electric vehicles) in the US market is on its own is a remarkable achievement.
    The company has a capacity to,pproduce its own batteries which is beyond anything it’s western competitors will be able to do for several years. Batteries are the limiting element in EV production, so that gives them a space in which to establish themselves as a major manufacturer.

    The company represents a straightforward gamble which may or may not succeed, and I’m not betting on the outcome. What it has done is ensure the futures of electric vehicles happens soon. Daimler, for example, is committing $15bn to try to catch up (though the serious competition is likely from China).
    Telsa's real legacy is that they are going to force the OEMs into 100% electric products (eg Merc EQC, Porsche Taycan) quicker than they otherwise would have
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Foxy said:



    Yes, the peak times for divorce are a few years into a marriage, and also a quarter century in. For the latter a good number of couples find that when the children leave home, they have nothing left in common, chuck in a bit of mid life crisis on either side and its a wonder that so many marriages continue.

    It's like the old joke about the pensioners who go to the priest to say they want to divorce after 50 years of marriage.

    "But why now, after so many decades together?"
    "Well, we thought we should wait for the children to die."
    There was a very, very old aristocrat who said that the first time she stopped worrying about her children was when she had got the youngest of them into an old peoples' home.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,558
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:


    I think he's made this up quite honestly. If we're ever truly going to become an interstellar species though, the first step is Mars. It's more of the whole Everest/Marianas Trench/1969 moon landing that appeals. The illustrations of the High Frontier, the childish sense of wonder that one day we can be amongst the stars... obviously we're nowhere near that yet - so he's set himself the goal of creating a martian colony; and hey he's working to stop earth having the runaway Venus problem which another million years of fossil fuel burning would probably bring about with Tesla.
    The visions of Sagan, Gerard O'Neill, the way humanity managed to go fricking backwards in space terms after Apollo - thats what drives him.

    I have a cousin who works for Tesla and has had a couple of private sessions with him - he seems quite positive about him. My cousin is basically an equable techie who will judge bosses by their interest in technological progress and new ideas, rather than more conventional things like praise, frequency of 1-1s, promotion paths, etc. Perhaps most Tesla staff are like that?
    I think the earlier comment about the Asperger’s is likely correct, however dubious it might be to diagnose at a distance. I’ve come across a couple of people who have that, mixed with the phenomenal energy Musk has, and for better or worse they get stuff done...

    While his management skills leave a great deal to be desired, I think those writing off Tesla are quite wrong. To go from nothing to outselling Audi, BMW and Mercedes (and that’s all cars, not electric vehicles) in the US market is on its own is a remarkable achievement.
    The company has a capacity to,pproduce its own batteries which is beyond anything it’s western competitors will be able to do for several years. Batteries are the limiting element in EV production, so that gives them a space in which to establish themselves as a major manufacturer.

    The company represents a straightforward gamble which may or may not succeed, and I’m not betting on the outcome. What it has done is ensure the futures of electric vehicles happens soon. Daimler, for example, is committing $15bn to try to catch up (though the serious competition is likely from China).
    Telsa's real legacy is that they are going to force the OEMs into 100% electric products (eg Merc EQC, Porsche Taycan) quicker than they otherwise would have
    Absolutely.
    And one or two of them are less likely to make it than Tesla.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,558
    Regarding the anonymous NYT author, Slate argues quite convincly for it to be Jon Huntsman. If it’s not, whoever set him up did a far more thorough job than dropping in ‘lodestar’.
  • Nigelb said:

    Regarding the anonymous NYT author, Slate argues quite convincly for it to be Jon Huntsman. If it’s not, whoever set him up did a far more thorough job than dropping in ‘lodestar’.

    Nigelb said:

    Regarding the anonymous NYT author, Slate argues quite convincly for it to be Jon Huntsman. If it’s not, whoever set him up did a far more thorough job than dropping in ‘lodestar’.

    Whoever is making the claims that they are curbing Trump's executive actions seems to be exaggerating and just boosting their own importance.

    Any serious adult who was managing to curb Trump would keep quiet about it, not warn him it was happening.

    So the NYT details sound like fake news.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:


    I think he's made this up quite honestly. If we're ever truly going to become an interstellar species though, the first step is Mars. It's more of the whole Everest/Marianas Trench/1969 moon landing that appeals. The illustrations of the High Frontier, the childish sense of wonder that one day we can be amongst the stars... obviously we're nowhere near that yet - so he's set himself the goal of creating a martian colony; and hey he's working to stop earth having the runaway Venus problem which another million years of fossil fuel burning would probably bring about with Tesla.
    The visions of Sagan, Gerard O'Neill, the way humanity managed to go fricking backwards in space terms after Apollo - thats what drives him.

    I have a cousin who works for Tesla and has had a couple of private sessions with him - he seems quite positive about him. My cousin is basically an equable techie who will judge bosses by their interest in technological progress and new ideas, rather than more conventional things like praise, frequency of 1-1s, promotion paths, etc. Perhaps most Tesla staff are like that?
    I think the earlier comment about the Asperger’s is likely correct, however dubious it might be to diagnose at a distance. I’ve come across a couple of people who have that, mixed with the phenomenal energy Musk has, and for better or worse they get stuff done...

    While his management skills leave a great deal to be desired, I think those writing off Tesla are quite wrong. To go from nothing to outselling Audi, BMW and Mercedes (and that’s all cars, not electric vehicles) in the US market is on its own is a remarkable achievement.
    The company has a capacity to,pproduce its own batteries which is beyond anything it’s western competitors will be able to do for several years. Batteries are the limiting element in EV production, so that gives them a space in which to establish themselves as a major manufacturer.

    The company represents a straightforward gamble which may or may not succeed, and I’m not betting on the outcome. What it has done is ensure the futures of electric vehicles happens soon. Daimler, for example, is committing $15bn to try to catch up (though the serious competition is likely from China).
    Telsa's real legacy is that they are going to force the OEMs into 100% electric products (eg Merc EQC, Porsche Taycan) quicker than they otherwise would have

    At what cost to Tesla investors?
  • Nigelb said:

    I think the earlier comment about the Asperger’s is likely correct, however dubious it might be to diagnose at a distance. I’ve come across a couple of people who have that, mixed with the phenomenal energy Musk has, and for better or worse they get stuff done...

    As someone with a formal diagnosis of Aspergers (or high-functioning Autistic Spectrum Disorder to use a name that doesn't honour a Nazi doctor) I intensely dislike the current fashion to diagnose obnoxious people in the public realm with ASD. There are lots of people with ASD who, while socially awkward, and potentially inadvertently rude at times, manage not to behave like gratuitously offensive idiots.
  • The header is not right to claim we did not already know the White House was dysfunctional. There have been many leaks and several books: Bob Woodward; Omarosa; Rick Wilson (as recommended by RCS); all following from Michael Wolff.

    And it is well-known there are record numbers of senior places unfilled, and record turnover of senior officials, which even has its own Wikipedia page:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Trump_administration_dismissals_and_resignations

    Did you actually bother to read the article? This, from the *first paragraph*:

    "The high level of turnover among staff, the erratic decision-making, the presidential public streams-of-consciousness made with zero empathy for their subjects, the failure to actually deliver on key policies like The Wall: we knew all this and have done pretty much since Day 1, if not before."
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311

    Sandpit said:


    That's very volatile with +4s & -4s.....
    Not too hard to imagine the soft left having had enough of Labour over antisemitism and general wretchedness, though - and wandering off to the LibDems.....
    There’s got to be a reasonable chance of an MP or two defecting from Lab to LD over the Conference season, surely? If I were Uncle Vince I’d have been having a word in a few ears over the summer.
    It would be interesting if Labour took a decisive hit in the polls. The Corbynistas take huge comfort from being level pegging with the Tories around 40% in the polls. If that were to materially change - so there was consistently a gap larger than at the 2017 election - then Labour's Softy Walter Tendency could point to them being doomed to another 5 plus years of Tory rule under Corbyn.

    Normally that might have some sway. But you have to think that the Corbynistas will just glide on, unbothered, saying "ah, but last time....he made up a much bigger gap...."
    How easy would it be for Corbynistas to infiltrate and materially affect online polling. They seem motivated enough to join panels en masse. I’m not clear how these things work, and if YouGov for example has the ability to screen out people who try to influence their findings. I guess the other question in light of this is how they could prevent say Russian interference in polling?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:


    "he is a genius with more ideas springing into his head in a week than many people"
    He might be a genius, but again I am unsure the second part of the sentence holds water. He may claim it does, but I'm far from convinced.

    It does compared to myself, maybe I'm just short on original ideas :(


    Where he does have skill is to take ideas and run with them - he has a filter where most of us are put off by people saying: "You can't do that." He's also excellent at assembling small teams focused on a small problem, whilst he appears less good at managing massive teams.

    Oh yes for sure, management is not his strength !


    I think Musk does literally see himself as Tony Stark (and the filmmakers used him as a model for the character). Instead, he should model himself on Branson: a figurehead. with a canny idea for new markets and leave the real work to his underlings, e.g. Shotwell at SpaceX.

    Oh God the last thing we need is another Branson ! Certainly he should leave all the management and board stuff to his underlings though !


    But I'm just a pleb on t'Internet. I daresay he'll manage without my contributions.

    Hah, mine to.
    Branson is not a good man but a shark.

    Other people comes to him with their ideas, he rents them his brand and then screws then on the equity. See the history of Virgin Atlantic as a good case study.
    Again I agree - i am not a fan of Branson. However he has been successful in developing himself as a brand, which imo is where Musk should go. Just as long as he does not brand a perfume.... eau de musk ...
    If you lie down with sharks, you’ll sleep with the fishes
  • Good morning everyone. See Chuka is pleading with Corbyn to call off the dogs and it does sound rather pathetic

    However, I would suggest he hasn't done this without support from colleagues and that it is a preamble to the conference and the attempt they are making to get a peoples vote (come on be honest, call it a second referendum) adopted as party policy.

    When this inevitably crashes that is the moment for a mass walkout from Corbyn's party. Remember 205 labour mps voted for the definition, if a good number of them walked away it would be a big moment.

    Indeed, Sky suggested this morning that Brexit and the second referendum was the only thing holding tha party together

    Be interesting to know if there was any degree of unity amongst Labour MPs on what form that Cheats Charter, er sorry, Second Referendum should take. Would those whose seats voted to Leave be OK with a Leave with No Deal/Leave with May's Final Deal choice - or are they insisting that any second vote should masquerade as an attempt to stop Brexit completely?
    I think it is more than likely it is a vehicle to stop Brexit, hence why they describe it as a peoples vote
    Which votes are not People's Votes? Just asking.
  • Nearly 1 in 5 voters say Boris Johnson’s adultery makes him unfit to be PM.

    The party splits are

    Con 16%
    Lab 21%
    LD 11%


    The Lib Dems are more liberal on adultery.
  • Good morning everyone. See Chuka is pleading with Corbyn to call off the dogs and it does sound rather pathetic

    However, I would suggest he hasn't done this without support from colleagues and that it is a preamble to the conference and the attempt they are making to get a peoples vote (come on be honest, call it a second referendum) adopted as party policy.

    When this inevitably crashes that is the moment for a mass walkout from Corbyn's party. Remember 205 labour mps voted for the definition, if a good number of them walked away it would be a big moment.

    Indeed, Sky suggested this morning that Brexit and the second referendum was the only thing holding tha party together

    Be interesting to know if there was any degree of unity amongst Labour MPs on what form that Cheats Charter, er sorry, Second Referendum should take. Would those whose seats voted to Leave be OK with a Leave with No Deal/Leave with May's Final Deal choice - or are they insisting that any second vote should masquerade as an attempt to stop Brexit completely?
    I think it is more than likely it is a vehicle to stop Brexit, hence why they describe it as a peoples vote
    Which votes are not People's Votes? Just asking.
    Depends on the outcome. Only votes that give a result the establishment can live with are People's Votes.
  • Pulpstar said:

    ... stop earth having the runaway Venus problem which another million years of fossil fuel burning would probably bring about...

    Realclimate.org wrote about this in passing some years ago. You may find it interesting. We're not quite close enough, or the Sun isn't quite hot enough (yet) for a Venusian hothouse to occur on Earth.

    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/04/lessons-from-venus/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    Good morning everyone. See Chuka is pleading with Corbyn to call off the dogs and it does sound rather pathetic

    However, I would suggest he hasn't done this without support from colleagues and that it is a preamble to the conference and the attempt they are making to get a peoples vote (come on be honest, call it a second referendum) adopted as party policy.

    When this inevitably crashes that is the moment for a mass walkout from Corbyn's party. Remember 205 labour mps voted for the definition, if a good number of them walked away it would be a big moment.

    Indeed, Sky suggested this morning that Brexit and the second referendum was the only thing holding tha party together

    Be interesting to know if there was any degree of unity amongst Labour MPs on what form that Cheats Charter, er sorry, Second Referendum should take. Would those whose seats voted to Leave be OK with a Leave with No Deal/Leave with May's Final Deal choice - or are they insisting that any second vote should masquerade as an attempt to stop Brexit completely?
    I think it is more than likely it is a vehicle to stop Brexit, hence why they describe it as a peoples vote
    Which votes are not People's Votes? Just asking.
    Ones that take place in Parliament, or amongst political party factions.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Trump will survive, invoking the 25th Amendment and impeacent are too high hurdles to overcome at the moment. As long as he retains the support of Republican primary voters he will also again be GOP candidate in 2020, the biggest challenge he faces is again getting re elected in the 2020 general election
  • May is safe says Oborne:

    "The fact is, she is respected by those at the heart of the Tory Party in the shires in a way that no other leader has been since Margaret Thatcher.

    Party activists have genuine affection for her and see potential rivals as flash, egotistical opportunists."

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6144961/As-Britain-faces-biggest-political-crisis-war-Brexit-crystal-ball.html
  • Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:


    "he is a genius with more ideas springing into his head in a week than many people"
    He might be a genius, but again I am unsure the second part of the sentence holds water. He may claim it does, but I'm far from convinced.

    It does compared to myself, maybe I'm just short on original ideas :(


    Where he does have skill is to take ideas and run with them - he has a filter where most of us are put off by people saying: "You can't do that." He's also excellent at assembling small teams focused on a small problem, whilst he appears less good at managing massive teams.

    Oh yes for sure, management is not his strength !


    I think Musk does literally see himself as Tony Stark (and the filmmakers used him as a model for the character). Instead, he should model himself on Branson: a figurehead. with a canny idea for new markets and leave the real work to his underlings, e.g. Shotwell at SpaceX.

    Oh God the last thing we need is another Branson ! Certainly he should leave all the management and board stuff to his underlings though !


    But I'm just a pleb on t'Internet. I daresay he'll manage without my contributions.

    Hah, mine to.
    Branson is not a good man but a shark.

    Other people comes to him with their ideas, he rents them his brand and then screws then on the equity. See the history of Virgin Atlantic as a good case study.
    Again I agree - i am not a fan of Branson. However he has been successful in developing himself as a brand, which imo is where Musk should go. Just as long as he does not brand a perfume.... eau de musk ...
    If you lie down with sharks, you’ll sleep with the fishes
    I would have loved to see your contemporaneous verdict on Brunel...
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:



    The visions of Sagan, Gerard O'Neill, the way humanity managed to go fricking backwards in space terms after Apollo - thats what drives him.

    I have a cousin who works for Tesla and has had a couple of private sessions with him - he seems quite positive about him. My cousin is basically an equable techie who will judge bosses by their interest in technological progress and new ideas, rather than more conventional things like praise, frequency of 1-1s, promotion paths, etc. Perhaps most Tesla staff are like that?
    I think the earlier comment about the Asperger’s is likely correct, however dubious it might be to diagnose at a distance. I’ve come across a couple of people who have that, mixed with the phenomenal energy Musk has, and for better or worse they get stuff done...

    While his management skills leave a great deal to be desired, I think those writing off Tesla are quite wrong. To go from nothing to outselling Audi, BMW and Mercedes (and that’s all cars, not electric vehicles) in the US market is on its own is a remarkable achievement.
    The company has a capacity to,pproduce its own batteries which is beyond anything it’s western competitors will be able to do for several years. Batteries are the limiting element in EV production, so that gives them a space in which to establish themselves as a major manufacturer.

    The company represents a straightforward gamble which may or may not succeed, and I’m not betting on the outcome. What it has done is ensure the futures of electric vehicles happens soon. Daimler, for example, is committing $15bn to try to catch up (though the serious competition is likely from China).
    Telsa's real legacy is that they are going to force the OEMs into 100% electric products (eg Merc EQC, Porsche Taycan) quicker than they otherwise would have

    At what cost to Tesla investors?
    That's the risk you take investing in a pioneer technology start-up, even a well-capitalised one. If the business gets it right, they can become globally dominant; if they don't get it right first time, chances are that the existing big boys will learn from the newbies' errors and use their existing infrastructure and financial clout to catch up and then outpace with a better product.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Clearly a boost for May that the Tories are back in front and bad for Corbyn that Labour have slipped behind.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,558

    Nigelb said:

    I think the earlier comment about the Asperger’s is likely correct, however dubious it might be to diagnose at a distance. I’ve come across a couple of people who have that, mixed with the phenomenal energy Musk has, and for better or worse they get stuff done...

    As someone with a formal diagnosis of Aspergers (or high-functioning Autistic Spectrum Disorder to use a name that doesn't honour a Nazi doctor) I intensely dislike the current fashion to diagnose obnoxious people in the public realm with ASD. There are lots of people with ASD who, while socially awkward, and potentially inadvertently rude at times, manage not to behave like gratuitously offensive idiots.
    I apologise if I’ve given offence, and agree with your larger point.
    In the case of Musk, my opinion (which I qualified for the reasons you give) had little to do with his obnoxiousness, and far more with what he has achieved.
  • DavidL said:

    Vice-President Mike Pence has denied authorship, in which case it was composed to look as if he'd written it. As the BBC notes, it is not just the word lodestar but also the sentence structure that point that way:
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45435813

    Interesting analysis.

    I wonder if the short sentences points to a business background? When I worked for an American Corp the 'house style' was short sentences, short paragraphs with one point and 'one page memos'. Pence is a lawyer.

    OT - did DavidL mention how he got on in his election yesterday?
    As I explained lawyers get paid by the hour and never like to do anything in a hurry. Voting is available until Tuesday at 3.00pm. I won't be there in fact as I will be in Court (occupational hazard) so I won't find out until the back of 4.00.

    " I will be in Court (occupational hazard)"

    Depending on your occupation you could be either side of the dock.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    Sandpit said:


    That's very volatile with +4s & -4s.....
    Not too hard to imagine the soft left having had enough of Labour over antisemitism and general wretchedness, though - and wandering off to the LibDems.....
    There’s got to be a reasonable chance of an MP or two defecting from Lab to LD over the Conference season, surely? If I were Uncle Vince I’d have been having a word in a few ears over the summer.
    It would be interesting if Labour took a decisive hit in the polls. The Corbynistas take huge comfort from being level pegging with the Tories around 40% in the polls. If that were to materially change - so there was consistently a gap larger than at the 2017 election - then Labour's Softy Walter Tendency could point to them being doomed to another 5 plus years of Tory rule under Corbyn.

    Normally that might have some sway. But you have to think that the Corbynistas will just glide on, unbothered, saying "ah, but last time....he made up a much bigger gap...."
    How easy would it be for Corbynistas to infiltrate and materially affect online polling. They seem motivated enough to join panels en masse. I’m not clear how these things work, and if YouGov for example has the ability to screen out people who try to influence their findings. I guess the other question in light of this is how they could prevent say Russian interference in polling?
    We had this discussion on the accuracy of online polls (generally predicting Leave) vs phone polling (predicting Remain), in the run up to the referendum. In parricular many suspected that online polling panels were unrepresentative samples.

    We now know that at least for that event the online polls were more accurate. It is interesting that the same online methods now favour Remain, but there are some dark alchemists at work on the raw data in all of the polls.

    Incidentally, are phone polls now extinct? I don't recall seeing one for ages.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:


    I think he's made this up quite honestly. If we're ever truly going to become an interstellar species though, the first step is Mars. It's more of the whole Everest/Marianas Trench/1969 moon landing that appeals. The illustrations of the High Frontier, the childish sense of wonder that one day we can be amongst the stars... obviously we're nowhere near that yet - so he's set himself the goal of creating a martian colony; and hey he's working to stop earth having the runaway Venus problem which another million years of fossil fuel burning would probably bring about with Tesla.
    The visions of Sagan, Gerard O'Neill, the way humanity managed to go fricking backwards in space terms after Apollo - thats what drives him.

    I have a cousin who works for Tesla and has had a couple of private sessions with him - he seems quite positive about him. My cousin is basically an equable techie who will judge bosses by their interest in technological progress and new ideas, rather than more conventional things like praise, frequency of 1-1s, promotion paths, etc. Perhaps most Tesla staff are like that?
    I think the earlier comment about the Asperger’s is likely correct, however dubious it might be to diagnose at a distance. I’ve come across a couple of people who have that, mixed with the phenomenal energy Musk has, and for better or worse they get stuff done...

    While his management skills leave a great deal to be desired, I think those writing off Tesla are quite wrong. To go from nothing to outselling Audi, BMW and Mercedes (and that’s all cars, not electric vehicles) in the US market is on its own is a remarkable achievement.
    The company has a capacity to,pproduce its own batteries which is beyond anything it’s western competitors will be able to do for several years. Batteries are the limiting element in EV production, so that gives them a space in which to establish themselves as a major manufacturer.

    The company represents a straightforward gamble which may or may not succeed, and I’m not betting on the outcome. What it has done is ensure the futures of electric vehicles happens soon. Daimler, for example, is committing $15bn to try to catch up (though the serious competition is likely from China).
    Telsa's real legacy is that they are going to force the OEMs into 100% electric products (eg Merc EQC, Porsche Taycan) quicker than they otherwise would have

    At what cost to Tesla investors?
    Investors have many privileges, including the right to lose all their money on a long odds bet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Clearly May will stay for some time to come, maybe up to the next general election if she gets more polling like this.

    However Boris supporters will point to the fact his Brexit plan is preferred to May's Chequers Plan so he will wait through Brexit and the transition period and the longer May takes to produce a final agreement on a FTA the better the chances of Boris will be
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:


    "he is a genius with more ideas springing into his head in a week than many people"
    He might be a genius, but again I am unsure the second part of the sentence holds water. He may claim it does, but I'm far from convinced.

    It does compared to myself, maybe I'm just short on original ideas :(


    Where he does have skill is to take ideas and run with them - he has a filter where most of us are put off by people saying: "You can't do that." He's also excellent at assembling small teams focused on a small problem, whilst he appears less good at managing massive teams.

    Oh yes for sure, management is not his strength !


    I think Musk does literally see himself as Tony Stark (and the filmmakers used him as a model for the character). Instead, he should model himself on Branson: a figurehead. with a canny idea for new markets and leave the real work to his underlings, e.g. Shotwell at SpaceX.

    Oh God the last thing we need is another Branson ! Certainly he should leave all the management and board stuff to his underlings though !


    But I'm just a pleb on t'Internet. I daresay he'll manage without my contributions.

    Hah, mine to.
    Branson is not a good man but a shark.

    Other people comes to him with their ideas, he rents them his brand and then screws then on the equity. See the history of Virgin Atlantic as a good case study.
    Again I agree - i am not a fan of Branson. However he has been successful in developing himself as a brand, which imo is where Musk should go. Just as long as he does not brand a perfume.... eau de musk ...
    If you lie down with sharks, you’ll sleep with the fishes
    I would have loved to see your contemporaneous verdict on Brunel...
    It’s very rare to get people who are good promoters and good business folk. It’s a different set of skills.
  • May is safe says Oborne:

    "The fact is, she is respected by those at the heart of the Tory Party in the shires in a way that no other leader has been since Margaret Thatcher.

    Party activists have genuine affection for her and see potential rivals as flash, egotistical opportunists."

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6144961/As-Britain-faces-biggest-political-crisis-war-Brexit-crystal-ball.html

    Have Conservative party members become snowflakes?

    They used to be ruthless about dumping failing leaders.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:


    "he is a genius with more ideas springing into his head in a week than many people"
    He might be a genius, but again I am unsure the second part of the sentence holds water. He may claim it does, but I'm far from convinced.

    It does compared to myself, maybe I'm just short on original ideas :(


    Where he does have skill is to take ideas and run with them - he has a filter where most of us are put off by people saying: "You can't do that." He's also excellent at assembling small teams focused on a small problem, whilst he appears less good at managing massive teams.

    Oh yes for sure, management is not his strength !


    I think Musk does literally see himself as Tony Stark (and the filmmakers used him as a model for the character). Instead, he should model himself on Branson: a figurehead. with a canny idea for new markets and leave the real work to his underlings, e.g. Shotwell at SpaceX.

    Oh God the last thing we need is another Branson ! Certainly he should leave all the management and board stuff to his underlings though !


    But I'm just a pleb on t'Internet. I daresay he'll manage without my contributions.

    Hah, mine to.
    Branson is not a good man but a shark.

    Other people comes to him with their ideas, he rents them his brand and then screws then on the equity. See the history of Virgin Atlantic as a good case study.
    Again I agree - i am not a fan of Branson. However he has been successful in developing himself as a brand, which imo is where Musk should go. Just as long as he does not brand a perfume.... eau de musk ...
    If you lie down with sharks, you’ll sleep with the fishes
    I would have loved to see your contemporaneous verdict on Brunel...
    Didn't Brunel go insolvent at times?

    Being a visionary and being a good investment are two different things.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,558

    Nigelb said:

    Regarding the anonymous NYT author, Slate argues quite convincly for it to be Jon Huntsman. If it’s not, whoever set him up did a far more thorough job than dropping in ‘lodestar’.

    Nigelb said:

    Regarding the anonymous NYT author, Slate argues quite convincly for it to be Jon Huntsman. If it’s not, whoever set him up did a far more thorough job than dropping in ‘lodestar’.

    Whoever is making the claims that they are curbing Trump's executive actions seems to be exaggerating and just boosting their own importance.

    Any serious adult who was managing to curb Trump would keep quiet about it, not warn him it was happening.

    So the NYT details sound like fake news.
    I agree - as do most US liberal commentators (who are considerably more condemnatory than you).
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:


    "he is a genius with more ideas springing into his head in a week than many people"
    He might be a genius, but again I am unsure the second part of the sentence holds water. He may claim it does, but I'm far from convinced.

    It does compared to myself, maybe I'm just short on original ideas :(


    Where he does have skill is to take ideas and run with them - he has a filter where most of us are put off by people saying: "You can't do that." He's also excellent at assembling small teams focused on a small problem, whilst he appears less good at managing massive teams.

    Oh yes for sure, management is not his strength !


    I think Musk does literally see himself as Tony Stark (and the filmmakers used him as a model for the character). Instead, he should model himself on Branson: a figurehead. with a canny idea for new markets and leave the real work to his underlings, e.g. Shotwell at SpaceX.

    Oh God the last thing we need is another Branson ! Certainly he should leave all the management and board stuff to his underlings though !


    But I'm just a pleb on t'Internet. I daresay he'll manage without my contributions.

    Hah, mine to.
    Branson is not a good man but a shark.

    Other people comes to him with their ideas, he rents them his brand and then screws then on the equity. See the history of Virgin Atlantic as a good case study.
    Again I agree - i am not a fan of Branson. However he has been successful in developing himself as a brand, which imo is where Musk should go. Just as long as he does not brand a perfume.... eau de musk ...
    If you lie down with sharks, you’ll sleep with the fishes
    I would have loved to see your contemporaneous verdict on Brunel...
    Didn't Brunel go insolvent at times?

    Being a visionary and being a good investment are two different things.
    We tend to laud 'First Mover' as an advantage. It can also result in you walking through a field of rakes, Sideshow Bob style, while late entrants can learn from your expensive mistakes. Exhibit A is Apple and the iPhone.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    HYUFD said:

    Clearly a boost for May that the Tories are back in front and bad for Corbyn that Labour have slipped behind.
    Both now we’ll under 40% feels significant.
  • Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:


    "he is a genius with more ideas springing into his head in a week than many people"
    He might be a genius, but again I am unsure the second part of the sentence holds water. He may claim it does, but I'm far from convinced.

    It does compared to myself, maybe I'm just short on original ideas :(


    Where he does have skill is to take ideas and run with them - he has a filter where most of us are put off by people saying: "You can't do that." He's also excellent at assembling small teams focused on a small problem, whilst he appears less good at managing massive teams.

    Oh yes for sure, management is not his strength !


    I think Musk does literally see himself as Tony Stark (and the filmmakers used him as a model for the character). Instead, he should model himself on Branson: a figurehead. with a canny idea for new markets and leave the real work to his underlings, e.g. Shotwell at SpaceX.

    Oh God the last thing we need is another Branson ! Certainly he should leave all the management and board stuff to his underlings though !


    But I'm just a pleb on t'Internet. I daresay he'll manage without my contributions.

    Hah, mine to.
    Branson is not a good man but a shark.

    Other people comes to him with their ideas, he rents them his brand and then screws then on the equity. See the history of Virgin Atlantic as a good case study.
    Again I agree - i am not a fan of Branson. However he has been successful in developing himself as a brand, which imo is where Musk should go. Just as long as he does not brand a perfume.... eau de musk ...
    If you lie down with sharks, you’ll sleep with the fishes
    I would have loved to see your contemporaneous verdict on Brunel...
    Didn't Brunel go insolvent at times?

    Being a visionary and being a good investment are two different things.
    His obituaries were not as glowing as one might expect given his current legendary status. And his family were not left with much money and had to sell off his art.

    Yet he parallels Musk in some rather interesting ways. I call Musk the modern Brunel.
  • Pulpstar said:

    I think he's made this up quite honestly. If we're ever truly going to become an interstellar species though, the first step is Mars. It's more of the whole Everest/Marianas Trench/1969 moon landing that appeals. The illustrations of the High Frontier, the childish sense of wonder that one day we can be amongst the stars... obviously we're nowhere near that yet - so he's set himself the goal of creating a martian colony; and hey he's working to stop earth having the runaway Venus problem which another million years of fossil fuel burning would probably bring about with Tesla.
    The visions of Sagan, Gerard O'Neill, the way humanity managed to go fricking backwards in space terms after Apollo - thats what drives him.

    Humanity didn't go backwards after Apollo; it just stopped spending huge amounts of money on what was essentially a prestige trip. It's also a bigger step from the moon to Mars than from the Wright brothers to the moon. The moon is essentially an extreme earth-orbit flight; Mars is a sun-orbit flight.

    To get to Mars and back you need to:

    1. Get everything you need off earth and into zero-gravity;
    2. Get from Earth to Mars;
    3. Either:
    a. i. Land everything you need to survive on Mars for several months, on the planet, safely,
    and ii. Establish a base on Mars in which astronauts can live, or
    b. Establish an orbiting vehicle capable of sustaining life with minimal equipment from Mars, either the planet itself or landed earlier;
    4. Get the astronauts back out of Mars gravity and to the inter-planetary craft;
    5. Return from Mars to Earth;
    6. Land back on Earth.

    Some of those can be split down and multiple run be made, and some are fairly routine (like 6), but others - the interplantary craft, which would have to make the entire round trip in about 18 months due to the way the planets rotate round the sun, are pretty conjectural, and others - surviving on or around Mars - even more so. As for landing a life-sustaining habitat safely on Mars, the history of Mars missions is not a happy one. Mars' higher gravity than the moon combined with its thin atmosphere make it a tough ask.

    I don't expect to see a Mars mission in my lifetime. Frankly, I'd rather we spent the money sorting this planet out.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited September 2018
    Another MP refusing to follow the instructions of his constituents (who voted to leave) but with a majority of less than 1000 I'm sure his constituents will get him out at the next available opportunity...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695

    May is safe says Oborne:

    "The fact is, she is respected by those at the heart of the Tory Party in the shires in a way that no other leader has been since Margaret Thatcher.

    Party activists have genuine affection for her and see potential rivals as flash, egotistical opportunists."

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6144961/As-Britain-faces-biggest-political-crisis-war-Brexit-crystal-ball.html

    Peter must've knocked back vast quantities of booze before writing this dirge...

    Reminds me of when he was a leading cheer-leader for El Gord. :D
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,558

    Pulpstar said:

    I think he's made this up quite honestly. If we're ever truly going to become an interstellar species though, the first step is Mars. It's more of the whole Everest/Marianas Trench/1969 moon landing that appeals. The illustrations of the High Frontier, the childish sense of wonder that one day we can be amongst the stars... obviously we're nowhere near that yet - so he's set himself the goal of creating a martian colony; and hey he's working to stop earth having the runaway Venus problem which another million years of fossil fuel burning would probably bring about with Tesla.
    The visions of Sagan, Gerard O'Neill, the way humanity managed to go fricking backwards in space terms after Apollo - thats what drives him.

    Humanity didn't go backwards after Apollo; it just stopped spending huge amounts of money on what was essentially a prestige trip. It's also a bigger step from the moon to Mars than from the Wright brothers to the moon. The moon is essentially an extreme earth-orbit flight; Mars is a sun-orbit flight.

    To get to Mars and back you need to:

    1. Get everything you need off earth and into zero-gravity;
    2. Get from Earth to Mars;
    3. Either:
    a. i. Land everything you need to survive on Mars for several months, on the planet, safely,
    and ii. Establish a base on Mars in which astronauts can live, or
    b. Establish an orbiting vehicle capable of sustaining life with minimal equipment from Mars, either the planet itself or landed earlier;
    4. Get the astronauts back out of Mars gravity and to the inter-planetary craft;
    5. Return from Mars to Earth;
    6. Land back on Earth.

    Some of those can be split down and multiple run be made, and some are fairly routine (like 6), but others - the interplantary craft, which would have to make the entire round trip in about 18 months due to the way the planets rotate round the sun, are pretty conjectural, and others - surviving on or around Mars - even more so. As for landing a life-sustaining habitat safely on Mars, the history of Mars missions is not a happy one. Mars' higher gravity than the moon combined with its thin atmosphere make it a tough ask.

    I don't expect to see a Mars mission in my lifetime. Frankly, I'd rather we spent the money sorting this planet out.
    I don’t think of it as an either/or.
    If launch costs fall sufficiently, space will become big business, generating its own money - which is Musk’s idea. His timetable for Mars seems utterly fanciful, though. I think it will take generations.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Chuka's warning to Corbyn to 'call off the dogs' or else he and fellow moderates risk being forced out of Labour, following Blair's statement May be lost to the hard Left yesterday and Cable's decision to stand down before the end of next year and Tory MP Guto Bebb's support for a 'People's Vote are clear evidence of the preparations being made towards a new centrist Party of Corbynism retains its grip on Labour and we end up with a No Deal Brexit or a very hard Brexit
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    HYUFD said:

    Chuka's warning to Corbyn to 'call off the dogs' or else he and fellow moderates risk being forced out of Labour, following Blair's statement May be lost to the hard Left yesterday and Cable's decision to stand down before the end of next year and Tory MP Guto Bebb's support for a 'People's Vote are clear evidence of the preparations being made towards a new centrist Party of Corbynism retains its grip on Labour and we end up with a No Deal Brexit or a very hard Brexit

    Chuka sounds desperate to me...
  • HYUFD said:

    Clearly a boost for May that the Tories are back in front and bad for Corbyn that Labour have slipped behind.
    They're tied. "No point to settling the precedence between a louse and a flea".....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Nigelb said:

    Regarding the anonymous NYT author, Slate argues quite convincly for it to be Jon Huntsman. If it’s not, whoever set him up did a far more thorough job than dropping in ‘lodestar’.

    The argument against Huntsman is that he's a long way from Washington DC in Moscow, and therefore - one would think - unable to see what's going on on a day-to-day basis. It's also a bit of a stretch to call the Ambassador to Russia a "Senior Member of the Administration".
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    HYUFD said:

    Clearly a boost for May that the Tories are back in front and bad for Corbyn that Labour have slipped behind.
    Plenty of evidence the last Survation poll was an outlier in terms of both the LAB and LD numbers.

    Is it three polls with the LDs in double figures - everyone will want to lead us and if Vince gets his way anyone will be able to. ?

    Drop back in UKIP support suggesting the Chequers "blip" has eased for now but an indication it could return IF it is seen May is slipping back toward BINO.

    Final observation - LAB+LD=47%, CON+UKIP=42%

    Elsewhere:

    https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/svt-novus-jamt-lopp-infor-sondagens-val

    The Moderates dropping back behind the Swedish Democrats leaving the Red-Green Parties on 39.9% ahead of the Borgerlig vloc of four parties on 38.5% with the Swedish Democrats on 19% so it's going to be very close.
  • HYUFD said:

    Chuka's warning to Corbyn to 'call off the dogs' or else he and fellow moderates risk being forced out of Labour, following Blair's statement May be lost to the hard Left yesterday and Cable's decision to stand down before the end of next year and Tory MP Guto Bebb's support for a 'People's Vote are clear evidence of the preparations being made towards a new centrist Party of Corbynism retains its grip on Labour and we end up with a No Deal Brexit or a very hard Brexit

    Not sure Corbyn has the power to be able to do that, even if he wanted to.
  • LordOfReasonLordOfReason Posts: 457
    edited September 2018
    malcolmg said:

    Chuka's speech in half an hour.

    It will be a lot of Hogwash G, the man is a political pygmy and wobblier than a soft jelly. Time he put his sandals on and joined the fibbing Lib Dums.
    Did Chuck a make a big speech this morning? I just saw a man embarrassing himself.

    The vast majority of Labour members don’t like two thirds of the PLP being New Labour politicians who bankrupted the country and disgraced the party killing millions with insane unnecessary wars. Why should they put up with it, why shouldn’t there be a purge to bring PLP in line with the party’s membership? Why should once an MP they can’t be deselected by their own members, regardless how off message of a democratic party’s message they become? As Chuck clearly hasn’t a clue about this, target him, make his deselection a flagship of democratic change.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    GIN1138 said:

    Another MP refusing to follow the instructions of his constituents (who voted to leave) but with a majority of less than 1000 I'm sure his constituents will get him out at the next available opportunity...
    MP’s are not delegates, to be instructed. They are representatives, to use their best judgement as the situation develops.
  • HYUFD said:

    Chuka's warning to Corbyn to 'call off the dogs' or else he and fellow moderates risk being forced out of Labour, following Blair's statement May be lost to the hard Left yesterday and Cable's decision to stand down before the end of next year and Tory MP Guto Bebb's support for a 'People's Vote are clear evidence of the preparations being made towards a new centrist Party of Corbynism retains its grip on Labour and we end up with a No Deal Brexit or a very hard Brexit

    Not sure Corbyn has the power to be able to do that, even if he wanted to.
    Corbyn *is* one of the dogs. Indeed, he is the lead dog in the pack. Where is this Umanna speech then? No mention of it on the Guardian.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    I would say Elon Musk is half hype and half genius in the execution of complex problems. Both are key to what he is. I don't think his strength lies in original ideas. That's part of his hype. SpaceX isn't delivering anything.beyond what ArianeSpace has been doing for a couple of decades with far less attention. SpaceX has shaken up the market thanks to efficient rocket production and deployment. Gigafactory is again about making more batteries cheaper. The enterprise Musk struggles with, Tesla, is the one where he has the most ideas. That's because car manufacturing is about marketing, business organisation and service, none of which are his strength.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited September 2018
    Survation has 73% of Tory voters now Leavers but only 66% of Labour voters now Remainers.

    With the LDs on 10% clearly some Labour Remainers have moved to Cable's party

    https://mobile.twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1038355629910491136
  • DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    matt said:

    DavidL said:

    Vice-President Mike Pence has denied authorship, in which case it was composed to look as if he'd written it. As the BBC notes, it is not just the word lodestar but also the sentence structure that point that way:
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45435813

    Interesting analysis.

    I wonder if the short sentences points to a business background? When I worked for an American Corp the 'house style' was short sentences, short paragraphs with one point and 'one page memos'. Pence is a lawyer.

    OT - did DavidL mention how he got on in his election yesterday?
    As I explained lawyers get paid by the hour and never like to do anything in a hurry. Voting is available until Tuesday at 3.00pm. I won't be there in fact as I will be in Court (occupational hazard) so I won't find out until the back of 4.00.
    Lawyers internally cost by the hour. I’m not sure about payment (no, I’m certain).
    David, is it a lottery to see who represents Alex and therefore gets the pot of gold.
    No, I understand Ronny Clancey QC has already won that. Whether he managed to negotiate a share of the fund as a fee I don’t know.
    Is it Cab Rank or can clients select?

    Surprised Salmond didn't go for the fragrant Joanna Cherry QC MP (SNP)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Clearly a boost for May that the Tories are back in front and bad for Corbyn that Labour have slipped behind.
    Plenty of evidence the last Survation poll was an outlier in terms of both the LAB and LD numbers.

    Is it three polls with the LDs in double figures - everyone will want to lead us and if Vince gets his way anyone will be able to. ?

    Drop back in UKIP support suggesting the Chequers "blip" has eased for now but an indication it could return IF it is seen May is slipping back toward BINO.

    Final observation - LAB+LD=47%, CON+UKIP=42%

    Elsewhere:

    https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/svt-novus-jamt-lopp-infor-sondagens-val

    The Moderates dropping back behind the Swedish Democrats leaving the Red-Green Parties on 39.9% ahead of the Borgerlig vloc of four parties on 38.5% with the Swedish Democrats on 19% so it's going to be very close.
    Clearly some Labour Remainers are moving to the LDs.

    In Sweden a Moderate and Social Democrat Grand Coalition looks possible
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    Chuka's warning to Corbyn to 'call off the dogs' or else he and fellow moderates risk being forced out of Labour, following Blair's statement May be lost to the hard Left yesterday and Cable's decision to stand down before the end of next year and Tory MP Guto Bebb's support for a 'People's Vote are clear evidence of the preparations being made towards a new centrist Party of Corbynism retains its grip on Labour and we end up with a No Deal Brexit or a very hard Brexit

    Not sure Corbyn has the power to be able to do that, even if he wanted to.
    Corbyn *is* one of the dogs. Indeed, he is the lead dog in the pack. Where is this Umanna speech then? No mention of it on the Guardian.
    It is lead story on the BBC

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45453807
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    DavidL said:

    There are a lot of similarities between Corbyn and Trump, both daft, both capable of absurd behaviour and self delusion and both obstinate but the similarity that is most important for present purposes is that they have both reshaped their party and its membership in their own image. In both the Labour and Republican party many have left in disgust giving the feet of the sandals a good wash as they leave only to have their places taken and more so by acolytes of the great man for whom he can do no wrong.

    Trump is not dealing with the Republican party of McCain, Reagan and George H Bush; if he was he would never have won the nomination first time around. He is dealing with the Trump version of the Republican party and it adores him. Anyone taking that on is going to have a hell of a mountain to climb. Despite the Chuka type mumblers, wailing ineffectively in the background whilst remaining in the party, I seriously doubt whether Trump will even face a meaningful primary challenge. If he does, just like Corbyn, his slavering attack dogs will go for the throat.

    Winning the Presidency again is a tougher call but the advantages of incumbency in the US are immense and the US economy is being pumped with disgraceful and unsustainable deficits to deliver short term growth. I have a modest bet on his re-election and I am still pretty comfortable with that.

    I agree with you...

    ...with the caveat that November's midterms might be *really* bad. I mean, imagine if the Republicans lost Texas, Arizona and Nevada, and the Dems held on to all but one of their incumbents. Such a victory, in such a difficult year for the Dems, would mean they would almost certainly hold onto the Senate for the next six years.

    And if the Republicans lost the Senate, then I'd be very surprised if Trump didn't face a meaningful challenge in the Primaries. Sure, he'd beat whoever (Rubio?) fought him, but it would still weaken him - just as George HW Bush was weakened by Pat Buchanan (who failed to win a single state).
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited September 2018

    GIN1138 said:

    Another MP refusing to follow the instructions of his constituents (who voted to leave) but with a majority of less than 1000 I'm sure his constituents will get him out at the next available opportunity...
    MP’s are not delegates, to be instructed. They are representatives, to use their best judgement as the situation develops.
    They legislated and voted to give the people a referendum. They promised they'd implement the result of the referendum and that it was a "once in a lifetime" vote. Then he stood on a manifesto that also promised to implement the referendum result.

    And now he's welching... He'll be history at the next election in any case.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    FF43 said:

    I would say Elon Musk is half hype and half genius in the execution of complex problems. Both are key to what he is. I don't think his strength lies in original ideas. That's part of his hype. SpaceX isn't delivering anything.beyond what ArianeSpace has been doing for a couple of decades with far less attention. SpaceX has shaken up the market thanks to efficient rocket production and deployment. Gigafactory is again about making more batteries cheaper. The enterprise Musk struggles with, Tesla, is the one where he has the most ideas. That's because car manufacturing is about marketing, business organisation and service, none of which are his strength.

    That's not true re SpaceX. The Ariane rockets use a complex mix of fuels that cost many millions of dollars per flight. SpaceX uses JetA* - aka Kerosene - which is incredibly cheap.

    * yes, yes I know it is technically purified JetA
  • GIN1138 said:

    Another MP refusing to follow the instructions of his constituents (who voted to leave) but with a majority of less than 1000 I'm sure his constituents will get him out at the next available opportunity...
    In fairness they are representatives, not delegates, but with a 635 majority and the entire household income (he hired his wife just before the ban) at the pleasure of his electorate he's being very "brave".....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695

    GIN1138 said:

    Another MP refusing to follow the instructions of his constituents (who voted to leave) but with a majority of less than 1000 I'm sure his constituents will get him out at the next available opportunity...
    In fairness they are representatives, not delegates, but with a 635 majority and the entire household income (he hired his wife just before the ban) at the pleasure of his electorate he's being very "brave".....
    Maybe he think's if he keeps us in the EU he'll be able to transfer his household income from the Westminster gravy train to the EU gravy train when he's inevitably booted out by his constituents? ;)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:


    "he is a genius with more ideas springing into his head in a week than many people"
    He might be a genius, but again I am unsure the second part of the sentence holds water. He may claim it does, but I'm far from convinced.

    It does compared to myself, maybe I'm just short on original ideas :(


    Where he does have skill is to take ideas and run with them - he has a filter where most of us are put off by people saying: "You can't do that." He's also excellent at assembling small teams focused on a small problem, whilst he appears less good at managing massive teams.

    Oh yes for sure, management is not his strength !


    I think Musk does literally see himself as Tony Stark (and the filmmakers used him as a model for the character). Instead, he should model himself on Branson: a figurehead. with a canny idea for new markets and leave the real work to his underlings, e.g. Shotwell at SpaceX.

    Oh God the last thing we need is another Branson ! Certainly he should leave all the management and board stuff to his underlings though !


    But I'm just a pleb on t'Internet. I daresay he'll manage without my contributions.

    Hah, mine to.
    Branson is not a good man but a shark.

    Other people comes to him with their ideas, he rents them his brand and then screws then on the equity. See the history of Virgin Atlantic as a good case study.
    Early on in Betgenius/Genius Sports history we got involved in a negotiation with Virgin.

    The offer seemed relatively good, until we discovered that a large part of what they would pay us would be in inventory in the Virgin Atlantic in-flight magazine. (Which they valued at an absurd rate.) We politely declined the offer.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited September 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    There are a lot of similarities between Corbyn and Trump, both daft, both capable of absurd behaviour and self delusion and both obstinate but the similarity that is most important for present purposes is that they have both reshaped their party and its membership in their own image. In both the Labour and Republican party many have left in disgust giving the feet of the sandals a good wash as they leave only to have their places taken and more so by acolytes of the great man for whom he can do no wrong.

    Trump is not dealing with the Republican party of McCain, Reagan and George H Bush; if he was he would never have won the nomination first time around. He is dealing with the Trump version of the Republican party and it adores him. Anyone taking that on is going to have a hell of a mountain to climb. Despite the Chuka type mumblers, wailing ineffectively in the background whilst remaining in the party, I seriously doubt whether Trump will even face a meaningful primary challenge. If he does, just like Corbyn, his slavering attack dogs will go for the throat.

    Winning the Presidency again is a tougher call but the advantages of incumbency in the US are immense and the US economy is being pumped with disgraceful and unsustainable deficits to deliver short term growth. I have a modest bet on his re-election and I am still pretty comfortable with that.

    I agree with you...

    ...with the caveat that November's midterms might be *really* bad. I mean, imagine if the Republicans lost Texas, Arizona and Nevada, and the Dems held on to all but one of their incumbents. Such a victory, in such a difficult year for the Dems, would mean they would almost certainly hold onto the Senate for the next six years.

    And if the Republicans lost the Senate, then I'd be very surprised if Trump didn't face a meaningful challenge in the Primaries. Sure, he'd beat whoever (Rubio?) fought him, but it would still weaken him - just as George HW Bush was weakened by Pat Buchanan (who failed to win a single state).
    Only 3 postwar US Presidents have had such terrible results in their first midterms they lost both the House and Senate when their party controlled both before, Truman in 1946, Eisenhower in 1954 and Bill Clinton in 1994. Yet all 3 Presidents were re elected 2 years later.

    In some respects the best possible thing to happen to Trump would be for the Democrats to sweep Congress, it would force him to the centre to get anything passed which would help his general election prospects while he has already secured the loyalty of his base so he wins the GOP primaries again too (Bush Snr annoyed his base by raising taxes hence Buchanan ran).

    If the Democrats take Congress and start pushing Trump's impeachment it may also look like ovetreach
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Another MP refusing to follow the instructions of his constituents (who voted to leave) but with a majority of less than 1000 I'm sure his constituents will get him out at the next available opportunity...
    In fairness they are representatives, not delegates, but with a 635 majority and the entire household income (he hired his wife just before the ban) at the pleasure of his electorate he's being very "brave".....
    Maybe he think's if he keeps us in the EU he'll be able to transfer his household income from the Westminster gravy train to the EU gravy train when he's inevitably booted out by his constituents? ;)
    I’m not a supporter of Bebb, or his party, but from what I’ve read he’s a man who is willing to do what he thinks is right.
  • 5 Tory MPs are now publicly backing a second referendum. Perhaps we should have a totaliser like the laughing Gordons?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Another MP refusing to follow the instructions of his constituents (who voted to leave) but with a majority of less than 1000 I'm sure his constituents will get him out at the next available opportunity...
    In fairness they are representatives, not delegates, but with a 635 majority and the entire household income (he hired his wife just before the ban) at the pleasure of his electorate he's being very "brave".....
    Maybe he think's if he keeps us in the EU he'll be able to transfer his household income from the Westminster gravy train to the EU gravy train when he's inevitably booted out by his constituents? ;)
    Or maybe he wants to stand for a new centrist party merged with the post Cable LDs and led by Chuka Umunna?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited September 2018

    5 Tory MPs are now publicly backing a second referendum. Perhaps we should have a totaliser like the laughing Gordons?

    And more Tory voters back Leave than Labour voters back Remain with Survation today.

    Survation also has Leave on 49%, its final 2016 EU referendum poll also had Leave on 49%. Leave got 52%
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited September 2018

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Another MP refusing to follow the instructions of his constituents (who voted to leave) but with a majority of less than 1000 I'm sure his constituents will get him out at the next available opportunity...
    In fairness they are representatives, not delegates, but with a 635 majority and the entire household income (he hired his wife just before the ban) at the pleasure of his electorate he's being very "brave".....
    Maybe he think's if he keeps us in the EU he'll be able to transfer his household income from the Westminster gravy train to the EU gravy train when he's inevitably booted out by his constituents? ;)
    I’m not a supporter of Bebb, or his party, but from what I’ve read he’s a man who is willing to do what he thinks is right.
    I was just reading his Wiki entry and apparently he jumped from Plaid to Con not over policy but because he failed to be selected by Plaid for a winnable seat.

    Last year he put his wife on the public payroll just before these practices were banned.

    Sounds like he has a pattern of behaviour when it comes to disloyalty and self-interest.

    Conviction politician he is not.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guto_Bebb
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    FF43 said:

    I would say Elon Musk is half hype and half genius in the execution of complex problems. Both are key to what he is. I don't think his strength lies in original ideas. That's part of his hype. SpaceX isn't delivering anything.beyond what ArianeSpace has been doing for a couple of decades with far less attention. SpaceX has shaken up the market thanks to efficient rocket production and deployment. Gigafactory is again about making more batteries cheaper. The enterprise Musk struggles with, Tesla, is the one where he has the most ideas. That's because car manufacturing is about marketing, business organisation and service, none of which are his strength.

    Nobody has truly original ideas, possibly excepting Leonardo da Vinci. Look at Newton and Leibnitz hitting on calculus at the same time, and all the people Darwin mentions in the intro to the second edition of Origin of Species all converging on evolution by natural selection. It's all incremental. Everything everyone says about Musk is at least partly true, but in the bigger picture we sound like a lot of frock-coated Victorian gammons harrumphing about how IK Brunel isn't all he is cracked up to be.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Another MP refusing to follow the instructions of his constituents (who voted to leave) but with a majority of less than 1000 I'm sure his constituents will get him out at the next available opportunity...
    In fairness they are representatives, not delegates, but with a 635 majority and the entire household income (he hired his wife just before the ban) at the pleasure of his electorate he's being very "brave".....
    Maybe he think's if he keeps us in the EU he'll be able to transfer his household income from the Westminster gravy train to the EU gravy train when he's inevitably booted out by his constituents? ;)
    I’m not a supporter of Bebb, or his party, but from what I’ve read he’s a man who is willing to do what he thinks is right.
    I was just reading his Wiki entry and apparently he jumped from Plaid to Con not over policy but because he failed to be selected by Plaid for a winnable seat.

    Last year he put his wife on the public payroll just before these practices were banned.

    Sounds like he has a pattern of behaviour when it comes to disloyalty and self-interest.

    Conviction politician he is not.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guto_Bebb
    Been doing the same and while I don’t like many of the things he’s done at least he seems to be prepared to face unpopularity.
    Agree I’m very surprised at his journey from Plaid to Con.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    I would say Elon Musk is half hype and half genius in the execution of complex problems. Both are key to what he is. I don't think his strength lies in original ideas. That's part of his hype. SpaceX isn't delivering anything.beyond what ArianeSpace has been doing for a couple of decades with far less attention. SpaceX has shaken up the market thanks to efficient rocket production and deployment. Gigafactory is again about making more batteries cheaper. The enterprise Musk struggles with, Tesla, is the one where he has the most ideas. That's because car manufacturing is about marketing, business organisation and service, none of which are his strength.

    That's not true re SpaceX. The Ariane rockets use a complex mix of fuels that cost many millions of dollars per flight. SpaceX uses JetA* - aka Kerosene - which is incredibly cheap.

    * yes, yes I know it is technically purified JetA
    My point is that SpaceX delivers the same satellites to the same orbits at the same reliability on the same contractual basis as Arianespace has been doing for twenty years. "We use cheaper fuel" isn't what motivates these people.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Another MP refusing to follow the instructions of his constituents (who voted to leave) but with a majority of less than 1000 I'm sure his constituents will get him out at the next available opportunity...
    In fairness they are representatives, not delegates, but with a 635 majority and the entire household income (he hired his wife just before the ban) at the pleasure of his electorate he's being very "brave".....
    Maybe he think's if he keeps us in the EU he'll be able to transfer his household income from the Westminster gravy train to the EU gravy train when he's inevitably booted out by his constituents? ;)
    I’m not a supporter of Bebb, or his party, but from what I’ve read he’s a man who is willing to do what he thinks is right.
    I was just reading his Wiki entry and apparently he jumped from Plaid to Con not over policy but because he failed to be selected by Plaid for a winnable seat.

    Last year he put his wife on the public payroll just before these practices were banned.

    Sounds like he has a pattern of behaviour when it comes to disloyalty and self-interest.

    Conviction politician he is not.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guto_Bebb
    Been doing the same and while I don’t like many of the things he’s done at least he seems to be prepared to face unpopularity.
    Agree I’m very surprised at his journey from Plaid to Con.

    “Those are my principles, and if you don't like them...well I have others.”

    ― Groucho Marx
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Another MP refusing to follow the instructions of his constituents (who voted to leave) but with a majority of less than 1000 I'm sure his constituents will get him out at the next available opportunity...
    In fairness they are representatives, not delegates, but with a 635 majority and the entire household income (he hired his wife just before the ban) at the pleasure of his electorate he's being very "brave".....
    Maybe he think's if he keeps us in the EU he'll be able to transfer his household income from the Westminster gravy train to the EU gravy train when he's inevitably booted out by his constituents? ;)
    I’m not a supporter of Bebb, or his party, but from what I’ve read he’s a man who is willing to do what he thinks is right.
    I was just reading his Wiki entry and apparently he jumped from Plaid to Con not over policy but because he failed to be selected by Plaid for a winnable seat.

    Last year he put his wife on the public payroll just before these practices were banned.

    Sounds like he has a pattern of behaviour when it comes to disloyalty and self-interest.

    Conviction politician he is not.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guto_Bebb
    Been doing the same and while I don’t like many of the things he’s done at least he seems to be prepared to face unpopularity.
    Agree I’m very surprised at his journey from Plaid to Con.

    “Those are my principles, and if you don't like them...well I have others.”

    ― Groucho Marx
    :D
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,558
    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    I would say Elon Musk is half hype and half genius in the execution of complex problems. Both are key to what he is. I don't think his strength lies in original ideas. That's part of his hype. SpaceX isn't delivering anything.beyond what ArianeSpace has been doing for a couple of decades with far less attention. SpaceX has shaken up the market thanks to efficient rocket production and deployment. Gigafactory is again about making more batteries cheaper. The enterprise Musk struggles with, Tesla, is the one where he has the most ideas. That's because car manufacturing is about marketing, business organisation and service, none of which are his strength.

    That's not true re SpaceX. The Ariane rockets use a complex mix of fuels that cost many millions of dollars per flight. SpaceX uses JetA* - aka Kerosene - which is incredibly cheap.

    * yes, yes I know it is technically purified JetA
    I think they also use extra low temperature LOX, which is a trick first used in some of the USSR’s ICBMs.
    He is good at picking up tech ideas from disparate sources.
  • FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    I would say Elon Musk is half hype and half genius in the execution of complex problems. Both are key to what he is. I don't think his strength lies in original ideas. That's part of his hype. SpaceX isn't delivering anything.beyond what ArianeSpace has been doing for a couple of decades with far less attention. SpaceX has shaken up the market thanks to efficient rocket production and deployment. Gigafactory is again about making more batteries cheaper. The enterprise Musk struggles with, Tesla, is the one where he has the most ideas. That's because car manufacturing is about marketing, business organisation and service, none of which are his strength.

    That's not true re SpaceX. The Ariane rockets use a complex mix of fuels that cost many millions of dollars per flight. SpaceX uses JetA* - aka Kerosene - which is incredibly cheap.

    * yes, yes I know it is technically purified JetA
    My point is that SpaceX delivers the same satellites to the same orbits at the same reliability on the same contractual basis as Arianespace has been doing for twenty years. "We use cheaper fuel" isn't what motivates these people.
    Is it not? The fact it is by a factor cheaper makes a big difference at opening up space.
  • 5 Tory MPs are now publicly backing a second referendum. Perhaps we should have a totaliser like the laughing Gordons?

    Contrasting them with Gordon seems appropriate.
  • 5 Tory MPs are now publicly backing a second referendum.

    Mr Glenn! I'm surprised at you! Don't you know its a People's Vote?

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    I would say Elon Musk is half hype and half genius in the execution of complex problems. Both are key to what he is. I don't think his strength lies in original ideas. That's part of his hype. SpaceX isn't delivering anything.beyond what ArianeSpace has been doing for a couple of decades with far less attention. SpaceX has shaken up the market thanks to efficient rocket production and deployment. Gigafactory is again about making more batteries cheaper. The enterprise Musk struggles with, Tesla, is the one where he has the most ideas. That's because car manufacturing is about marketing, business organisation and service, none of which are his strength.

    That's not true re SpaceX. The Ariane rockets use a complex mix of fuels that cost many millions of dollars per flight. SpaceX uses JetA* - aka Kerosene - which is incredibly cheap.

    * yes, yes I know it is technically purified JetA
    My point is that SpaceX delivers the same satellites to the same orbits at the same reliability on the same contractual basis as Arianespace has been doing for twenty years. "We use cheaper fuel" isn't what motivates these people.
    My point is that cheap fuel and reusable rockets has the potential to reduce the cost of launching satellites by an order of magnitude.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Another MP refusing to follow the instructions of his constituents (who voted to leave) but with a majority of less than 1000 I'm sure his constituents will get him out at the next available opportunity...
    In fairness they are representatives, not delegates, but with a 635 majority and the entire household income (he hired his wife just before the ban) at the pleasure of his electorate he's being very "brave".....
    Maybe he think's if he keeps us in the EU he'll be able to transfer his household income from the Westminster gravy train to the EU gravy train when he's inevitably booted out by his constituents? ;)
    I’m not a supporter of Bebb, or his party, but from what I’ve read he’s a man who is willing to do what he thinks is right.
    I was just reading his Wiki entry and apparently he jumped from Plaid to Con not over policy but because he failed to be selected by Plaid for a winnable seat.

    Last year he put his wife on the public payroll just before these practices were banned.

    Sounds like he has a pattern of behaviour when it comes to disloyalty and self-interest.

    Conviction politician he is not.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guto_Bebb
    He also has a name that sounds like he should have a walk-on role in the Star Wars cantina.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chuka's warning to Corbyn to 'call off the dogs' or else he and fellow moderates risk being forced out of Labour, following Blair's statement May be lost to the hard Left yesterday and Cable's decision to stand down before the end of next year and Tory MP Guto Bebb's support for a 'People's Vote are clear evidence of the preparations being made towards a new centrist Party of Corbynism retains its grip on Labour and we end up with a No Deal Brexit or a very hard Brexit

    Not sure Corbyn has the power to be able to do that, even if he wanted to.
    Corbyn *is* one of the dogs. Indeed, he is the lead dog in the pack. Where is this Umanna speech then? No mention of it on the Guardian.
    It is lead story on the BBC

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45453807
    "A Labour Party source called the speech "incoherent and inaccurate"."

    Well, that saves the Tories having to critique it!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    I would say Elon Musk is half hype and half genius in the execution of complex problems. Both are key to what he is. I don't think his strength lies in original ideas. That's part of his hype. SpaceX isn't delivering anything.beyond what ArianeSpace has been doing for a couple of decades with far less attention. SpaceX has shaken up the market thanks to efficient rocket production and deployment. Gigafactory is again about making more batteries cheaper. The enterprise Musk struggles with, Tesla, is the one where he has the most ideas. That's because car manufacturing is about marketing, business organisation and service, none of which are his strength.

    That's not true re SpaceX. The Ariane rockets use a complex mix of fuels that cost many millions of dollars per flight. SpaceX uses JetA* - aka Kerosene - which is incredibly cheap.

    * yes, yes I know it is technically purified JetA
    My point is that SpaceX delivers the same satellites to the same orbits at the same reliability on the same contractual basis as Arianespace has been doing for twenty years. "We use cheaper fuel" isn't what motivates these people.
    Arianespace haven’t been landing rockets back and reusing them, their launch prices are an order of magnitude more expensive. What SpaceX are doing is completely revolutionary.

    To me, this picture defines the last decade of scientific advancement, we will have to tell our kids that they used to send rockets up to space and just throw them away afterwards.
    image
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,743
    edited September 2018
    The UK's 'newspaper of record'.

    https://twitter.com/BrianCathcart/status/1038075136673554433
    On checking Wiki, I see that historically the Tele is supposed to be the other paper of record.

    We're fucked, aint we..
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    I would say Elon Musk is half hype and half genius in the execution of complex problems. Both are key to what he is. I don't think his strength lies in original ideas. That's part of his hype. SpaceX isn't delivering anything.beyond what ArianeSpace has been doing for a couple of decades with far less attention. SpaceX has shaken up the market thanks to efficient rocket production and deployment. Gigafactory is again about making more batteries cheaper. The enterprise Musk struggles with, Tesla, is the one where he has the most ideas. That's because car manufacturing is about marketing, business organisation and service, none of which are his strength.

    That's not true re SpaceX. The Ariane rockets use a complex mix of fuels that cost many millions of dollars per flight. SpaceX uses JetA* - aka Kerosene - which is incredibly cheap.

    * yes, yes I know it is technically purified JetA
    My point is that SpaceX delivers the same satellites to the same orbits at the same reliability on the same contractual basis as Arianespace has been doing for twenty years. "We use cheaper fuel" isn't what motivates these people.
    My point is that cheap fuel and reusable rockets has the potential to reduce the cost of launching satellites by an order of magnitude.
    Only if the market also expands by an order of magnitude. So far that hasn't happened. In any case design trade offs are nuanced and can change as circumstances change. Solid fuel boosters are cheap and simple to implement and as the fuel has a higher density you can have smaller rockets for the same payload.
  • 5 Tory MPs are now publicly backing a second referendum.

    Mr Glenn! I'm surprised at you! Don't you know its a People's Vote?

    Seriously Carlo you have to change that Avatar. It made my tongue go hard.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Another MP refusing to follow the instructions of his constituents (who voted to leave) but with a majority of less than 1000 I'm sure his constituents will get him out at the next available opportunity...
    In fairness they are representatives, not delegates, but with a 635 majority and the entire household income (he hired his wife just before the ban) at the pleasure of his electorate he's being very "brave".....
    Maybe he think's if he keeps us in the EU he'll be able to transfer his household income from the Westminster gravy train to the EU gravy train when he's inevitably booted out by his constituents? ;)
    I’m not a supporter of Bebb, or his party, but from what I’ve read he’s a man who is willing to do what he thinks is right.
    I was just reading his Wiki entry and apparently he jumped from Plaid to Con not over policy but because he failed to be selected by Plaid for a winnable seat.

    Last year he put his wife on the public payroll just before these practices were banned.

    Sounds like he has a pattern of behaviour when it comes to disloyalty and self-interest.

    Conviction politician he is not.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guto_Bebb
    He also has a name that sounds like he should have a walk-on role in the Star Wars cantina.....
    Traditional Welsh. See Wikipedia 'Guto'r Glyn (1435–1493), Welsh language poet'
  • The LibDems have issued their suicide note as a video:

    https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1038019052306874369
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Another MP refusing to follow the instructions of his constituents (who voted to leave) but with a majority of less than 1000 I'm sure his constituents will get him out at the next available opportunity...
    In fairness they are representatives, not delegates, but with a 635 majority and the entire household income (he hired his wife just before the ban) at the pleasure of his electorate he's being very "brave".....
    Maybe he think's if he keeps us in the EU he'll be able to transfer his household income from the Westminster gravy train to the EU gravy train when he's inevitably booted out by his constituents? ;)
    I’m not a supporter of Bebb, or his party, but from what I’ve read he’s a man who is willing to do what he thinks is right.
    I was just reading his Wiki entry and apparently he jumped from Plaid to Con not over policy but because he failed to be selected by Plaid for a winnable seat.

    Last year he put his wife on the public payroll just before these practices were banned.

    Sounds like he has a pattern of behaviour when it comes to disloyalty and self-interest.

    Conviction politician he is not.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guto_Bebb
    He also has a name that sounds like he should have a walk-on role in the Star Wars cantina.....
    Traditional Welsh. See Wikipedia 'Guto'r Glyn (1435–1493), Welsh language poet'
    I was aware Bebb was a Welsh surname. (It would have to be if he previously wanted to be a Plaid MP!)

    Guto was new to me as a first name though. Thanks.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    I would say Elon Musk is half hype and half genius in the execution of complex problems. Both are key to what he is. I don't think his strength lies in original ideas. That's part of his hype. SpaceX isn't delivering anything.beyond what ArianeSpace has been doing for a couple of decades with far less attention. SpaceX has shaken up the market thanks to efficient rocket production and deployment. Gigafactory is again about making more batteries cheaper. The enterprise Musk struggles with, Tesla, is the one where he has the most ideas. That's because car manufacturing is about marketing, business organisation and service, none of which are his strength.

    That's not true re SpaceX. The Ariane rockets use a complex mix of fuels that cost many millions of dollars per flight. SpaceX uses JetA* - aka Kerosene - which is incredibly cheap.

    * yes, yes I know it is technically purified JetA
    My point is that SpaceX delivers the same satellites to the same orbits at the same reliability on the same contractual basis as Arianespace has been doing for twenty years. "We use cheaper fuel" isn't what motivates these people.
    My point is that cheap fuel and reusable rockets has the potential to reduce the cost of launching satellites by an order of magnitude.
    Only if the market also expands by an order of magnitude. So far that hasn't happened. In any case design trade offs are nuanced and can change as circumstances change. Solid fuel boosters are cheap and simple to implement and as the fuel has a higher density you can have smaller rockets for the same payload.
    Is price elasticity greater than one? I don't know the answer to that, but I suspect the answer is yes
  • Mr. Borough, the proposals in that Lib Dem video are as sensible as shoving one's todger in a Chinese finger trap.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Another MP refusing to follow the instructions of his constituents (who voted to leave) but with a majority of less than 1000 I'm sure his constituents will get him out at the next available opportunity...
    In fairness they are representatives, not delegates, but with a 635 majority and the entire household income (he hired his wife just before the ban) at the pleasure of his electorate he's being very "brave".....
    Maybe he think's if he keeps us in the EU he'll be able to transfer his household income from the Westminster gravy train to the EU gravy train when he's inevitably booted out by his constituents? ;)
    I’m not a supporter of Bebb, or his party, but from what I’ve read he’s a man who is willing to do what he thinks is right.
    I was just reading his Wiki entry and apparently he jumped from Plaid to Con not over policy but because he failed to be selected by Plaid for a winnable seat.

    Last year he put his wife on the public payroll just before these practices were banned.

    Sounds like he has a pattern of behaviour when it comes to disloyalty and self-interest.

    Conviction politician he is not.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guto_Bebb
    He also has a name that sounds like he should have a walk-on role in the Star Wars cantina.....
    Traditional Welsh. See Wikipedia 'Guto'r Glyn (1435–1493), Welsh language poet'
    I was aware Bebb was a Welsh surname. (It would have to be if he previously wanted to be a Plaid MP!)

    Guto was new to me as a first name though. Thanks.
    Don’t mention it.
    TBH, don’t think Leanne Wood’s name sounds particularly Welsh. Yet she leads Plaid Cymru.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715

    Mr. Borough, the proposals in that Lib Dem video are as sensible as shoving one's todger in a Chinese finger trap.

    My browser won’t let me play the video!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,558
    edited September 2018
    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    I would say Elon Musk is half hype and half genius in the execution of complex problems. Both are key to what he is. I don't think his strength lies in original ideas. That's part of his hype. SpaceX isn't delivering anything.beyond what ArianeSpace has been doing for a couple of decades with far less attention. SpaceX has shaken up the market thanks to efficient rocket production and deployment. Gigafactory is again about making more batteries cheaper. The enterprise Musk struggles with, Tesla, is the one where he has the most ideas. That's because car manufacturing is about marketing, business organisation and service, none of which are his strength.

    That's not true re SpaceX. The Ariane rockets use a complex mix of fuels that cost many millions of dollars per flight. SpaceX uses JetA* - aka Kerosene - which is incredibly cheap.

    * yes, yes I know it is technically purified JetA
    My point is that SpaceX delivers the same satellites to the same orbits at the same reliability on the same contractual basis as Arianespace has been doing for twenty years. "We use cheaper fuel" isn't what motivates these people.
    My point is that cheap fuel and reusable rockets has the potential to reduce the cost of launching satellites by an order of magnitude.
    Only if the market also expands by an order of magnitude. So far that hasn't happened. In any case design trade offs are nuanced and can change as circumstances change. Solid fuel boosters are cheap and simple to implement and as the fuel has a higher density you can have smaller rockets for the same payload.
    That’s not correct. Liquid fuel rockets have a higher specific impulse (ie they provide more thrust per unit mass). Solid fuel boosters can provide a higher instantaneous thrust, but don’t last as long; they are also not controllable in flight, or reusable.
    So basically useless for what SpaceX is doing.

    (btw, the reason for using extra cooled LOX is that is it both denser and more reactive than the more conventional type.)

  • The LibDems have issued their suicide note as a video:

    Someone should change the music for the theme from MASH.
  • Mr. Borough, the proposals in that Lib Dem video are as sensible as shoving one's todger in a Chinese finger trap.

    Maybe I'll be wrong and have to eat a baseball cap or something. But to me this is a disaster just waiting to happen.

    May not get past the existing membership though (anyone know if there is a vote at conference on all this?):

    "There are those in the Party who seem to be suggesting two solutions to our problems which are laughable."

    Richard Kemp (Leader of the Liberal Democrats in Liverpool)

    https://www.libdemvoice.org/party-membership-lets-get-real-58475.html
This discussion has been closed.