Whosoever it was that tipped the SD below 22% is a Saint.
Agreed, Alistair, but I'm baffled as to how it could ever have been odds against in the light of copious polls. The price even eased out a bit on election eve.
Räkning i vallokal pågår. 50 av 6004 valdistrikt räknade.
S 25.6 SD 21.3 M 16.4
SD doing about 5% better than the first exit poll and 2% better than the second exit poll there.
SD also doing better than most polls which had them closer to the Moderates than the Social Democrats, instead it looks like the reverse
Does anyone know if rural or urban tend to report first ?
I imagine SD will be stronger outside of Stockholm say.
It may be rural results reporting more first so that may boost the SD a little, dreadful results for the Moderates especially so far though, it is the equivalent of the Tories falling 5% behind UKIP
It looks very much like a 5-6% swing to SD from S.
The governing party hangs on but is weakened while the populist option now speaks for something like 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 of the population - a pattern evident in many parts of Europe now.
Yes, in 3 Western European countries, Italy, France and now Sweden the main centre right party has been overtaken by a populist, nationalist, anti immigration party. A warning for those who say the Tories should abandon Brexit completely.
Of course in Italy and France and Greece the main centre left party has been overtaken by a populist, leftwing, anti austerity party too which may also be a warning to those who say Labour should abandon Corbynism
It looks very much like a 5-6% swing to SD from S.
The governing party hangs on but is weakened while the populist option now speaks for something like 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 of the population - a pattern evident in many parts of Europe now.
Yes, in 3 Western European countries, Italy, France and now Sweden the main centre right party has been overtaken by a populist, nationalist, anti immigration party. A warning for those who say the Tories should abandon Brexit completely.
Of course in Italy and France and Greece the main centre left party has been overtaken by a populist, leftwing, anti austerity party too which may also be a warning to those who say Labour should abandon Corbynism
In this country of course, Labour hasn't been overtaken it's been taken over.
It looks very much like a 5-6% swing to SD from S.
The governing party hangs on but is weakened while the populist option now speaks for something like 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 of the population - a pattern evident in many parts of Europe now.
The governing party won't be able to hold on if the Greens go below 4%.
It looks very much like a 5-6% swing to SD from S.
The governing party hangs on but is weakened while the populist option now speaks for something like 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 of the population - a pattern evident in many parts of Europe now.
Yes, in 3 Western European countries, Italy, France and now Sweden the main centre right party has been overtaken by a populist, nationalist, anti immigration party. A warning for those who say the Tories should abandon Brexit completely.
Of course in Italy and France and Greece the main centre left party has been overtaken by a populist, leftwing, anti austerity party too which may also be a warning to those who say Labour should abandon Corbynism
In this country of course, Labour hasn't been overtaken it's been taken over.
Yes, same with Trump's GOP but they have been taken over by those who would have formed hard right or hard left parties in Western Europe
Difficult to see how it cannot be a Grand Coalition, the centre right block is now on 39.1% and the centre left block on 40.9% and the Swedish Democrats on 18.5%
Nothing lol about it, these are abysmal results for the Moderates (the Tories sister party in the International Democrat Union), it is effectively like UKIP being ahead of the Tories here
It was clear that the umpire was just following the rules of the game. Her coach has admitted he was in the wrong,
It does nobody any good when you play the sexism card and get found wanting.
Knowing when to quit is an important skill to have. It would be a shame for a stellar career to descend into a mess of identity politics and playing the victim.
Nothing lol about it, these are abysmal results for the Moderates (the Tories sister party in the International Democrat Union), it is effectively like UKIP being ahead of the Tories here
Nothing lol about it, these are abysmal results for the Moderates (the Tories sister party in the International Democrat Union), it is effectively like UKIP being ahead of the Tories here
You mean like at Euro 2014?
Yes but that was a European not a general election, however if the Tories abandoned Brexit completely I could well see them suffering the Moderates fate and struggling to stay ahead of UKIP as the main party of the Right
There was a glorious, and profitable moment, when the percentage changes pointed to that. Assuming no big last minute swings, it has helped me to a profit of £350 or so.
Nothing lol about it, these are abysmal results for the Moderates (the Tories sister party in the International Democrat Union), it is effectively like UKIP being ahead of the Tories here
You mean like at Euro 2014?
Sunil, I travelled on my first IET Azuma today, on the Cotswold line to Oxford. Two points spting to mind:
*) The seats are *really* uncomfortable, and I have a fair amount of padding on my bottom. *) They can't get the electronic signs right even on a new train; for the entire journey it as saying the next station was Worcester.
Poor result for Yougov in Sweden - having placed the Swedish Democrats in the lead!
They were about the only pollster who did.
However even had the Sweden Democrats come first the end result would still have been the same as it will likely be now, a Social Democrat and Moderate Grand Coalition.
The Sweden Democrats will therefore become the main opposition to that Grand Coalition now as the AfD are to the CDU and SPD Grand Coalition in Germany
Left 40.6/ Right 40.2 with just under a third of the districts to report.
Making a Grand Coalition almost inevitable now, the CDU and SPD are of course both down after that Grand Coalition and the AfD, Die Linke and the Greens all up in the latest German polls
Bit odd to say you were obviously speaking as an individual activist, when saying you had seen nothing, even though you are on the NEC disciplinary team and had seen lots.
There are similarities to the 2016 Irish election, with a result where no combination can command a majority. Pace@HYUFD, a grand coalition is not inevitable, in fact it's rather unlikely. Most likely is either an arrangement like that between Fine Gael and Fianna Fianna Fáil, in which the centre right agrees to let the centre right govern but with restrictions on what they can do, or the converse with the centre right governing, or a centre-right minority government to which the Sweden Democrats provide limited support on a 'we can pull the plug anytime' basis.
Like Ireland, and Italy, it's a helluva mess however you look at it.
There are similarities to the 2016 Irish election, with a result where no combination can command a majority. Pace@HYUFD, a grand coalition is not inevitable, in fact it's rather unlikely. Most likely is either an arrangement like that between Fine Gael and Fianna Fianna Fáil, in which the centre right agrees to let the centre right govern but with restrictions on what they can do, or the converse with the centre right governing, or a centre-right minority government to which the Sweden Democrats provide limited support on a 'we can pull the plug anytime' basis.
Like Ireland, and Italy, it's a helluva mess though.
There are similarities to the 2016 Irish election, with a result where no combination can command a majority. Pace@HYUFD, a grand coalition is not inevitable, in fact it's rather unlikely. Most likely is either an arrangement like that between Fine Gael and Fianna Fianna Fáil, in which the centre right agrees to let the centre right govern but with restrictions on what they can do, or the converse with the centre right governing, or a centre-right minority government to which the Sweden Democrats provide limited support on a 'we can pull the plug anytime' basis.
Like Ireland, and Italy, it's a helluva mess though.
There are similarities to the 2016 Irish election, with a result where no combination can command a majority. Pace@HYUFD, a grand coalition is not inevitable, in fact it's rather unlikely. Most likely is either an arrangement like that between Fine Gael and Fianna Fianna Fáil, in which the centre right agrees to let the centre right govern but with restrictions on what they can do, or the converse with the centre right governing, or a centre-right minority government to which the Sweden Democrats provide limited support on a 'we can pull the plug anytime' basis.
Like Ireland, and Italy, it's a helluva mess however you look at it.
How can there not be a Grand Coalition when both centre right and centre left blocks are deadlocked without giving the Swedish Democrats the balance of power?
There are similarities to the 2016 Irish election, with a result where no combination can command a majority. Pace@HYUFD, a grand coalition is not inevitable, in fact it's rather unlikely. Most likely is either an arrangement like that between Fine Gael and Fianna Fianna Fáil, in which the centre right agrees to let the centre right govern but with restrictions on what they can do, or the converse with the centre right governing, or a centre-right minority government to which the Sweden Democrats provide limited support on a 'we can pull the plug anytime' basis.
Like Ireland, and Italy, it's a helluva mess however you look at it.
How can there not be a Grand Coalition when both centre right and centre left blocks are deadlocked without giving the Swedish Democrats the balance of power?
Minority government, or a reassortment of minor parties. Easy Peasy.
There are similarities to the 2016 Irish election, with a result where no combination can command a majority. Pace@HYUFD, a grand coalition is not inevitable, in fact it's rather unlikely. Most likely is either an arrangement like that between Fine Gael and Fianna Fianna Fáil, in which the centre right agrees to let the centre right govern but with restrictions on what they can do, or the converse with the centre right governing, or a centre-right minority government to which the Sweden Democrats provide limited support on a 'we can pull the plug anytime' basis.
Like Ireland, and Italy, it's a helluva mess however you look at it.
How can there not be a Grand Coalition when both centre right and centre left blocks are deadlocked without giving the Swedish Democrats the balance of power?
But didn’t they also hold the balance in the previous Parliament? Why couldn’t a similar arrangement - a minority govt but tolerated by the opposition with strict policy constraints - be put in place for the new one?
Brutal: http://www.espncricinfo.com/story/_/id/24626303/england-dig-hole-loyalty-keaton-jennings The statistics of Jennings' career are damning. No England opener has ever gone as many consecutive innings (18) without a half-century and, against deliveries from seamers that would have hit the stumps in this series, he is averaging just 1.33. Those are figures that wouldn't flatter an inanimate object....
Nothing lol about it, these are abysmal results for the Moderates (the Tories sister party in the International Democrat Union), it is effectively like UKIP being ahead of the Tories here
You mean like at Euro 2014?
Sunil, I travelled on my first IET Azuma today, on the Cotswold line to Oxford. Two points spting to mind:
*) The seats are *really* uncomfortable, and I have a fair amount of padding on my bottom. *) They can't get the electronic signs right even on a new train; for the entire journey it as saying the next station was Worcester.
I was on one last week from Paddington to Oxford. I have a dodgy disc in my back and found them really comfortable....
I didn’t see what all the fuss was about.
But I’m now stuck on one of the old HSTs outside Castle Cary. We’ve hit an animal and broken the train...
There are similarities to the 2016 Irish election, with a result where no combination can command a majority. Pace@HYUFD, a grand coalition is not inevitable, in fact it's rather unlikely. Most likely is either an arrangement like that between Fine Gael and Fianna Fianna Fáil, in which the centre right agrees to let the centre right govern but with restrictions on what they can do, or the converse with the centre right governing, or a centre-right minority government to which the Sweden Democrats provide limited support on a 'we can pull the plug anytime' basis.
Like Ireland, and Italy, it's a helluva mess however you look at it.
How can there not be a Grand Coalition when both centre right and centre left blocks are deadlocked without giving the Swedish Democrats the balance of power?
Minority government, or a reassortment of minor parties. Easy Peasy.
Even a minority Social Democrat Government is not possible as the centre right block may well end up with more than the centre left block and the Moderates are well behind the Social Democrats and neither will touch the Swedish Democrats with a bargepole, so most likely it will have to be a Moderate and Social Democrat Grand Coalition led by Lofven
How did Yougov get it so so wrong, their polling was horrific on this !
What's happened to displease you?
Incoming Betfair Premium charge on Social Democrats winnings. Obviously I bet against Yougov exceptionalism - but I didn't think they'd be quite this far off.
There are similarities to the 2016 Irish election, with a result where no combination can command a majority. Pace@HYUFD, a grand coalition is not inevitable, in fact it's rather unlikely. Most likely is either an arrangement like that between Fine Gael and Fianna Fianna Fáil, in which the centre right agrees to let the centre right govern but with restrictions on what they can do, or the converse with the centre right governing, or a centre-right minority government to which the Sweden Democrats provide limited support on a 'we can pull the plug anytime' basis.
Like Ireland, and Italy, it's a helluva mess however you look at it.
How can there not be a Grand Coalition when both centre right and centre left blocks are deadlocked without giving the Swedish Democrats the balance of power?
But didn’t they also hold the balance in the previous Parliament? Why couldn’t a similar arrangement - a minority govt but tolerated by the opposition with strict policy constraints - be put in place for the new one?
Last time the centre left block had more MPs than the centre right block, that may well not be the case this time
How did Yougov get it so so wrong, their polling was horrific on this !
What's happened to displease you?
Incoming Betfair Premium charge on Social Democrats winnings. Obviously I bet against Yougov exceptionalism - but I didn't think they'd be quite this far off.
It is still a poor result for the 2 main parties and the Swedish Democrats will likely now be the main party of opposition, whether the Swedish Democrats came top or not was largely irrelevant to that, the main thing is they prevented either of the other main blocks winning,
There are similarities to the 2016 Irish election, with a result where no combination can command a majority. Pace@HYUFD, a grand coalition is not inevitable, in fact it's rather unlikely. Most likely is either an arrangement like that between Fine Gael and Fianna Fianna Fáil, in which the centre right agrees to let the centre right govern but with restrictions on what they can do, or the converse with the centre right governing, or a centre-right minority government to which the Sweden Democrats provide limited support on a 'we can pull the plug anytime' basis.
Like Ireland, and Italy, it's a helluva mess however you look at it.
How can there not be a Grand Coalition when both centre right and centre left blocks are deadlocked without giving the Swedish Democrats the balance of power?
But didn’t they also hold the balance in the previous Parliament? Why couldn’t a similar arrangement - a minority govt but tolerated by the opposition with strict policy constraints - be put in place for the new one?
Last time the centre left block had more MPs than the centre right block, that may well not be the case this time
OK, so the centre-right coalition forms a minority govt, tolerated by the centre left? I’m not saying that a grand coalition won’t happen but it’s not inevitable based on the experience of the last 4 years.
Nothing lol about it, these are abysmal results for the Moderates (the Tories sister party in the International Democrat Union), it is effectively like UKIP being ahead of the Tories here
You mean like at Euro 2014?
Sunil, I travelled on my first IET Azuma today, on the Cotswold line to Oxford. Two points spting to mind:
*) The seats are *really* uncomfortable, and I have a fair amount of padding on my bottom. *) They can't get the electronic signs right even on a new train; for the entire journey it as saying the next station was Worcester.
Sounds like the new Crossrail trains - the most uncomfortable train seats I have ever sat on. Given the massive cut in seats compared to the old trains though it probably won't matter - standing will be the order of the day.
Comments
It is a hugely confusing alphabet soup where you have two parties with the same initials.
S 25.6
SD 21.3
M 16.4
Weird, but wonderful!
S 25.4
SD 20.6
SD also doing better than most polls which had them closer to the Moderates than the Social Democrats, instead it looks like the reverse
S are down 4pp and SD up 5pp so far so heading for something like 27/18
I imagine SD will be stronger outside of Stockholm say.
https://data.val.se/val/val2018/valnatt/R/rike/index.html
Hence my rural/urban question.
Social Democrats on 63% there.
204 av 6 004 distrikt räknade. Resultat hämtade kl 20.12.
Source: https://sverigesradio.se/
Social Dems 28, Swedish Dems 22, Moderates 17, Centre 11
https://sverigesradio.se/
394 av 6 004 distrikt räknade. Resultat hämtade kl 20.19
Of course in Italy and France and Greece the main centre left party has been overtaken by a populist, leftwing, anti austerity party too which may also be a warning to those who say Labour should abandon Corbynism
scroll down for clickable results map
679 av 6 004 distrikt räknade. Resultat hämtade kl 20.27.
I never thought you and I would agree on this one...
805 av 6 004 distrikt räknade. Resultat hämtade kl 20.31.
https://sverigesradio.se/
https://www.val.se/
1 049 av 6 004 distrikt räknade. Resultat hämtade kl 20.34.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/sep/09/carlos-ramos-serena-williams-tennis-umpire-us-open
Crossover !
https://www.di.se/val/
1 345 av 6 004 distrikt räknade. Resultat hämtade kl 20.40.
Was the first exit poll more accurate than the second SVT?
https://sverigesradio.se/
I now have to go catch a train, so will see you at about midnight.
It does nobody any good when you play the sexism card and get found wanting.
Knowing when to quit is an important skill to have. It would be a shame for a stellar career to descend into a mess of identity politics and playing the victim.
*) The seats are *really* uncomfortable, and I have a fair amount of padding on my bottom.
*) They can't get the electronic signs right even on a new train; for the entire journey it as saying the next station was Worcester.
Give me time...
4095 out of 6004 at 21.23
Moderates now in second place, which seems very... moderate of them
Greens now at 4.4
However even had the Sweden Democrats come first the end result would still have been the same as it will likely be now, a Social Democrat and Moderate Grand Coalition.
The Sweden Democrats will therefore become the main opposition to that Grand Coalition now as the AfD are to the CDU and SPD Grand Coalition in Germany
I speak from experience!
One of our teachers has just done thirty years with us.
His old French teacher is still here.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/08/03/the-limits-of-populism-will-the-hard-right-disappoint-its-fans-most-ardent-hopes-again-in-sweden/
...But I can't because I hate you all.
WD.
S -2.8
SD +4.7
M -3.5
Being the main ones
https://twitter.com/TheRedRoar/status/1038858691783602178
They just want to keep this going.
Ty and wd.
Like Ireland, and Italy, it's a helluva mess however you look at it.
Barnier to pin down agreement at Salzburg meeting as EU vows to save Theresa May
http://www.espncricinfo.com/story/_/id/24626303/england-dig-hole-loyalty-keaton-jennings
The statistics of Jennings' career are damning. No England opener has ever gone as many consecutive innings (18) without a half-century and, against deliveries from seamers that would have hit the stumps in this series, he is averaging just 1.33. Those are figures that wouldn't flatter an inanimate object....
I didn’t see what all the fuss was about.
But I’m now stuck on one of the old HSTs outside Castle Cary. We’ve hit an animal and broken the train...
YouGov are not a Swedish pollster