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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why a united Ireland post Brexit is a real possibility

SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited September 10 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why a united Ireland post Brexit is a real possibility

I cannot have been the only person that was astonished at Northern Ireland secretary Karen Bradley’s recent admission that she knew nothing of the place before taking office. I am probably being naïve, but you would have thought that someone appointed to such an important role would at least possess a passing knowledge of its history and the political skill required for such a position. Some have commended Bradley’s honesty. Yet her appointment reflects an arrogance about Ireland that seems to permeate the Conservative Party in 2018. Aptly displayed by Boris Johnson’s constant bemoaning of the importance of the Irish border question in Brexit negotiations.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,678
    A very interesting piece. My view is that the DUP - while pro-Brexit - would oppose to a No Deal Brexit, and probably wouldn't be that keen on a CETA Brexit either.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 2,324
    Holding this referendum is going to be one of PM Corbyn's priorities whether it's in the manifesto or not and if it occurs in a post-Brexit environment it will probably succeed. Irlande unie vaut bien un brexit, to misquote Henri-Quatre.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,742
    edited September 10
    Dura_Ace said:

    Holding this referendum is going to be one of PM Corbyn's priorities whether it's in the manifesto or not and if it occurs in a post-Brexit environment it will probably succeed. Irlande unie vaut bien un brexit, to misquote Henri-Quatre.

    When is Corbyn ever going to become PM? The next general election isn't due until 2022 and by that time he will have alienated even more of his GE2017 supporters including me in my ultra marginal seat.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 1,609

    Dura_Ace said:

    Holding this referendum is going to be one of PM Corbyn's priorities whether it's in the manifesto or not and if it occurs in a post-Brexit environment it will probably succeed. Irlande unie vaut bien un brexit, to misquote Henri-Quatre.

    When is Corbyn ever going to become PM? The next general election isn't due until 2022 and by that time he will have alienated even more of his GE2017 supporters including me in my ultra marginal seat.
    I don't think anything is for certain in regards to Corbyn, assuming he is still leading Labour there is a good chance. Even if Labour were to lose votes compared to 2017 the Tories have to govern for a few more years and either do something with Brexit or continue to kick it down the road. Both of which are likely to cost them some votes.

    I can see the potential for both parties to lose votes but greater potential in the Tories. My guess at this stage would be for Labour to put on votes but nothing like the increase last time and for the Tories to lose votes.

    Although to come back around to the topic I'm not sure how much he would personally force the issue of a united Ireland, if other events helped bring it about then he would be more willing than say May for example. Brexit and how that affects things is probably a bigger element of it.

    Based on my somewhat limited knowledge (a touch above Karen Bradley's) I wonder if Brexit aside having the DUP as the main representatives of unionism is a driver in negative attitudes towards unionism.

    On Karen Bradley I would have thought she would have known about the voting habits in N. Ireland based on just having an interest in politics. At least I like to assume politicians have some interest in politics, that might just be me being hopelessly optimistic again.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,492
    edited September 10
    I wonder whether the Centre Party in Sweden might be tempted to go across to the centre-left coalition.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    rcs1000 said:

    A very interesting piece. My view is that the DUP - while pro-Brexit - would oppose to a No Deal Brexit, and probably wouldn't be that keen on a CETA Brexit either.

    I think you are wrong on both counts. In both cases the border between NI and ROI will become more 'real', and the more the two parts diverge in terms of regulation the bigger and harder decision it will be later for citizens in NI to rejoin the EU system. Obviously, the greater the divergence the greater the benefits will be to the UK and NI (as even the EU now seem to admit), which will again make unification less likely.

    May's offering of the backstop was a dreadful decision and I doubt very much that she will be able to agree any text with Barnier that will not cause the DUP to oppose her.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,768

    Obviously, the greater the divergence the greater the benefits will be to the UK and NI (as even the EU now seem to admit), which will again make unification less likely.

    The opposite I think. The greater the divergence the greater the damage.
    As for unification, no idea. I would suggest any referendum should require a threshold of 60-65% to be successful (learning from Brexit).
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,482
    edited September 10
    Is this a test or has the wrong podcast been published? We had the same one last week.

    Same podcast with a new, though appropriate, header?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,757
    I see Boris was complaining that the Chequers Plan was like a suicide jacket.

    Can anyone show me his full, detailed plan so I can peruse it? Because surely he's got a solid alternative plan rather than just: "Cripes, I'd like to be PM so I can shag my current, next and next-but-one mistress in No. 10!" ?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 39,332

    I see Boris was complaining that the Chequers Plan was like a suicide jacket.

    Can anyone show me his full, detailed plan so I can peruse it? Because surely he's got a solid alternative plan rather than just: "Cripes, I'd like to be PM so I can shag my current, next and next-but-one mistress in No. 10!" ?

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,847
    That is a concerning poll.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 715

    rcs1000 said:

    A very interesting piece. My view is that the DUP - while pro-Brexit - would oppose to a No Deal Brexit, and probably wouldn't be that keen on a CETA Brexit either.

    I think you are wrong on both counts. In both cases the border between NI and ROI will become more 'real', and the more the two parts diverge in terms of regulation the bigger and harder decision it will be later for citizens in NI to rejoin the EU system. Obviously, the greater the divergence the greater the benefits will be to the UK and NI (as even the EU now seem to admit), which will again make unification less likely.

    May's offering of the backstop was a dreadful decision and I doubt very much that she will be able to agree any text with Barnier that will not cause the DUP to oppose her.
    If there is a hard Brexit and the residents of the 6 counties grudgingly accept that situation, then in a few years Irish re-unification would become more difficult due to the increasing divergence that would inevitably occur. However, if a hard Brexit creates an irresistible pressure for a referendum on Irish re-unification before such a hard Brexit has taken hold, then Irish re-unification is more likely. The process would be assisted by JC becoming PM, as he is more sympathetic to such a development.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,847
    FPT - I think the Swedish Democrats simply have too much baggage, and aren't taking enough care not to frighten the horses.

    If they adopted an approach similar to the Danish People's Party then I couldn't see why they couldn't provide a measure of support to the Moderates, but they'd also have to be willing to accept it.
  • I see Boris was complaining that the Chequers Plan was like a suicide jacket.

    Can anyone show me his full, detailed plan so I can peruse it? Because surely he's got a solid alternative plan rather than just: "Cripes, I'd like to be PM so I can shag my current, next and next-but-one mistress in No. 10!" ?

    There is no shared and agreed plan on either side, nor even an agreed destination or aspiration.

    What is interesting about Boris is that he walked smack into Number 10's beefed-up spin operation. Taking that together with Theresa May using her African trip to learn human as well as dancing, and perhaps we should wonder if the PM is having second thoughts about stepping down after Brexit but before the election. It is worrying for those of us who have placed our bets as a longer delay gives more time for new contenders to emerge.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 715

    That is a concerning poll.

    Why? Irish re-unification would be a good thing, as would Scottish independence. Both the 6 counties and Scotland could then remain in/rejoin the EU, in line with the wishes of a significant majority of their inhabitants.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 11,076
    rkrkrk said:

    Obviously, the greater the divergence the greater the benefits will be to the UK and NI (as even the EU now seem to admit), which will again make unification less likely.

    The opposite I think. The greater the divergence the greater the damage.
    As for unification, no idea. I would suggest any referendum should require a threshold of 60-65% to be successful (learning from Brexit).
    Indeed. That some people see the political change as a benefit I can at least understand, even though to me it simply means decisions previously taken by an undemocratic EU being shifted to an undemocratic UK Parliament. But I have yet to see any convincing explanation as to how Brexit can deliver any significant economic benefit, other than the saving in contribution (which most likely will disappear into an ocean of other damage).

    All you tend to get from leavers is some vague waffle about trade agreements, overlooking the fact of our reduced leverage outside the EU and that some of the world's most successful trading nations have become so within the EU.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 11,076
    edited September 10

    Dura_Ace said:

    Holding this referendum is going to be one of PM Corbyn's priorities whether it's in the manifesto or not and if it occurs in a post-Brexit environment it will probably succeed. Irlande unie vaut bien un brexit, to misquote Henri-Quatre.

    When is Corbyn ever going to become PM? The next general election isn't due until 2022 and by that time he will have alienated even more of his GE2017 supporters including me in my ultra marginal seat.
    The relevant scenario is that Brexit turns into such a mess that electors stampede to vote for anyone but the Tories, who thrust all of this upon us. In such circumstances it won't matter that much who the opposition is.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,570
    rcs1000 said:

    A very interesting piece. My view is that the DUP - while pro-Brexit - would oppose to a No Deal Brexit, and probably wouldn't be that keen on a CETA Brexit either.

    Sammy Wilson wrote an article last week effectively demanding a UK-wide CETA Brexit. He must know this is not going to be on offer either from the EU or May so the question is which betrayal narrative he is trying to tee up. If there are the numbers in parliament for an extension/second referendum, I don’t think it’s impossible that the DUP will end up dropping their support for Brexit.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 6,395
    Sweden Democrats on 17.6% and third, not 22% and second as an exit poll predicted.
    Could have been worse.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 1,993
    edited September 10
    IanB2 said:

    scenarion

    What a wonderful new word generated by typo. It could be a character from Tolkien.

    "For long ages Scenarion and Glorfindel defended the realm against Morgoth..."

    Sindarin Elvish?

    /nerd
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,810
    Ignorance of NI Secretaries is nothing new. There was a good story of one of the multitude of NI Secretaries under Blair being shown a map which showed the areas of Catholic and Protestant strength. He asked what the large blue bit was. Oh, that's lough neagh came the answer.

    NI has always been different and has become more so over the years. When the SDLP sat with Labour and the Ulster Unionists sat with the Tories the fact that they had different political parties wasn't so obvious but with the virtual collapse of those two and the domination of the DUP and Sinn Fein their role in UK politics is normally much diminished. The Catholics are pretty much excluded altogether by the decisions of Sinn Fein not to sit in the Commons.

    Add in the NI assembly by which they are making their own laws and the largely incomprehensible (to anyone in the UK outside west Scotland) obsession of division by religion and we have a country of which we know little and understand less. At the moment the DUP are playing an important role in the Commons and the Assembly is not sitting but when we return to more normal times it is not hard to see NI drifting away from a country it has limited amounts in common with.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,742
    IanB2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Holding this referendum is going to be one of PM Corbyn's priorities whether it's in the manifesto or not and if it occurs in a post-Brexit environment it will probably succeed. Irlande unie vaut bien un brexit, to misquote Henri-Quatre.

    When is Corbyn ever going to become PM? The next general election isn't due until 2022 and by that time he will have alienated even more of his GE2017 supporters including me in my ultra marginal seat.
    The relevant scenario is that Brexit turns into such a mess that electors stampede to vote for anyone but the Tories, who thrust all of this upon us. In such circumstances it won't matter that much who the opposition is.
    There is nothing in my ultra marginal seat that will persuade me to vote for a party led by Corbyn
  • DavidL said:

    Ignorance of NI Secretaries is nothing new. There was a good story of one of the multitude of NI Secretaries under Blair being shown a map which showed the areas of Catholic and Protestant strength. He asked what the large blue bit was. Oh, that's lough neagh came the answer.

    Wasn't that Bill Clinton ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,991
    edited September 10
    Good morning, everyone.

    "It may not happen overnight, but it is a realistic prospect in the medium term in a world where the Tories increasingly prioritise Brexit over the Union and Jeremy Corbyn edges closer to Number 10."

    If politicians hold a vote and promise to enact the result, and then don't, that renders democracy rather pointless.

    I never wanted Scotland to leave the UK, but the voters there opted for the SNP and had the right to a referendum, and to have the result respected. Freedom of self-determination, whether for the Scots staying in the UK or the UK leaving the EU, is a cornerstone of democratic society.

    Edited extra bit: caught enough last night to see that the Moderates didn't appear to have topped the poll but thought I'd check for the detail. Quite remarkable that a BBC article on the Swedish election manages not to include party results (there are some voting bloc figures).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45466174
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,810

    DavidL said:

    Ignorance of NI Secretaries is nothing new. There was a good story of one of the multitude of NI Secretaries under Blair being shown a map which showed the areas of Catholic and Protestant strength. He asked what the large blue bit was. Oh, that's lough neagh came the answer.

    Wasn't that Bill Clinton ?
    It's the sort of apocryphal story that has probably been told about a few people. I would be surprised if it was applicable to Clinton, he was a man who did his homework.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 6,395
    DavidL said:

    Ignorance of NI Secretaries is nothing new. There was a good story of one of the multitude of NI Secretaries under Blair being shown a map which showed the areas of Catholic and Protestant strength. He asked what the large blue bit was. Oh, that's lough neagh came the answer.

    NI has always been different and has become more so over the years. When the SDLP sat with Labour and the Ulster Unionists sat with the Tories the fact that they had different political parties wasn't so obvious but with the virtual collapse of those two and the domination of the DUP and Sinn Fein their role in UK politics is normally much diminished. The Catholics are pretty much excluded altogether by the decisions of Sinn Fein not to sit in the Commons.

    Add in the NI assembly by which they are making their own laws and the largely incomprehensible (to anyone in the UK outside west Scotland) obsession of division by religion and we have a country of which we know little and understand less. At the moment the DUP are playing an important role in the Commons and the Assembly is not sitting but when we return to more normal times it is not hard to see NI drifting away from a country it has limited amounts in common with.

    Agree with most of what you say except the last sentence.
    I went to school in Northern Ireland although it was quite a few years ago, has it really changed that much that the Protestant majority would meekly acquiesce in a united Ireland?
  • The new Parliamentary boundaries will be laid in Parliament today.

    This is very quick work, given that the Secretaries of State only received them 5 days ago.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,979
    Ulf of the Moderates is meeting the Swedish Democrats Monday for talks about forming a government.
    So even though the SDs were below expectations, they may end up doing well out of the election with an arrangement to the government.
    See Winston Peters lol
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,129
    daodao said:

    That is a concerning poll.

    Why? Irish re-unification would be a good thing, as would Scottish independence. Both the 6 counties and Scotland could then remain in/rejoin the EU, in line with the wishes of a significant majority of their inhabitants.
    The absorption of NI by the Republic would be difficult, and would change both, but NI becoming a devolved part of Ireland, rather than a devolved part of the UK is conceivable. The Republic is a much more progressive and liberal place than it was in De Valera's day. Economically it would be challenging too, but history suggests that countries are willing to put up with the costs.

  • Good morning, everyone.

    "It may not happen overnight, but it is a realistic prospect in the medium term in a world where the Tories increasingly prioritise Brexit over the Union and Jeremy Corbyn edges closer to Number 10."

    If politicians hold a vote and promise to enact the result, and then don't, that renders democracy rather pointless.

    I never wanted Scotland to leave the UK, but the voters there opted for the SNP and had the right to a referendum, and to have the result respected. Freedom of self-determination, whether for the Scots staying in the UK or the UK leaving the EU, is a cornerstone of democratic society.

    Edited extra bit: caught enough last night to see that the Moderates didn't appear to have topped the poll but thought I'd check for the detail. Quite remarkable that a BBC article on the Swedish election manages not to include party results (there are some voting bloc figures).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45466174

    But Leavers said we could Brexit without any risk of a Northern Ireland returning to a Hard Border or Irish reunification.

    Another bit of bullpoop from Vote Leave as anyone with half a brain cell knew this was inevitable as Leave’s promises were undeliverable.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,129

    IanB2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Holding this referendum is going to be one of PM Corbyn's priorities whether it's in the manifesto or not and if it occurs in a post-Brexit environment it will probably succeed. Irlande unie vaut bien un brexit, to misquote Henri-Quatre.

    When is Corbyn ever going to become PM? The next general election isn't due until 2022 and by that time he will have alienated even more of his GE2017 supporters including me in my ultra marginal seat.
    The relevant scenario is that Brexit turns into such a mess that electors stampede to vote for anyone but the Tories, who thrust all of this upon us. In such circumstances it won't matter that much who the opposition is.
    There is nothing in my ultra marginal seat that will persuade me to vote for a party led by Corbyn
    Maybe so, but would you vote for May, or Boris, or stick to the LDs?

    In such a seat, much would depend for me on the views of the local candidates.
  • Still I’m warming to Brexit.

    A no deal Brexit not only gets rid of Norn Iron it will deliver diamond hard austerity, particularly on the working classes who voted for Brexit, those buggers have been mollycoddled enough for too long, end working tax credits would be a start.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,979

    Good morning, everyone.

    "It may not happen overnight, but it is a realistic prospect in the medium term in a world where the Tories increasingly prioritise Brexit over the Union and Jeremy Corbyn edges closer to Number 10."

    If politicians hold a vote and promise to enact the result, and then don't, that renders democracy rather pointless.

    I never wanted Scotland to leave the UK, but the voters there opted for the SNP and had the right to a referendum, and to have the result respected. Freedom of self-determination, whether for the Scots staying in the UK or the UK leaving the EU, is a cornerstone of democratic society.

    Edited extra bit: caught enough last night to see that the Moderates didn't appear to have topped the poll but thought I'd check for the detail. Quite remarkable that a BBC article on the Swedish election manages not to include party results (there are some voting bloc figures).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45466174

    But Leavers said we could Brexit without any risk of a Northern Ireland returning to a Hard Border or Irish reunification.

    Another bit of bullpoop from Vote Leave as anyone with half a brain cell knew this was inevitable as Leave’s promises were undeliverable.
    NI leaving increases the probability slightly of Corbyn forming a government ;)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,810

    DavidL said:

    Ignorance of NI Secretaries is nothing new. There was a good story of one of the multitude of NI Secretaries under Blair being shown a map which showed the areas of Catholic and Protestant strength. He asked what the large blue bit was. Oh, that's lough neagh came the answer.

    NI has always been different and has become more so over the years. When the SDLP sat with Labour and the Ulster Unionists sat with the Tories the fact that they had different political parties wasn't so obvious but with the virtual collapse of those two and the domination of the DUP and Sinn Fein their role in UK politics is normally much diminished. The Catholics are pretty much excluded altogether by the decisions of Sinn Fein not to sit in the Commons.

    Add in the NI assembly by which they are making their own laws and the largely incomprehensible (to anyone in the UK outside west Scotland) obsession of division by religion and we have a country of which we know little and understand less. At the moment the DUP are playing an important role in the Commons and the Assembly is not sitting but when we return to more normal times it is not hard to see NI drifting away from a country it has limited amounts in common with.

    Agree with most of what you say except the last sentence.
    I went to school in Northern Ireland although it was quite a few years ago, has it really changed that much that the Protestant majority would meekly acquiesce in a united Ireland?
    You are in a much better position to judge than me. I was rather focusing on the British viewpoint. The Northern Irish are not integrated into the UK in the way that Scotland and Wales are and have chosen to be different. I agree with Keiran that on this side of the water there is likely to be more than a fair amount of indifference. Whether this would last if, say, 200k NI protestants decided they were leaving and coming to the mainland who can tell?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,990

    The new Parliamentary boundaries will be laid in Parliament today.

    This is very quick work, given that the Secretaries of State only received them 5 days ago.

    Oh to see the looks on the faces of ‘moderate’ Lab MPs when they realise that they’ll all need to be selected in a new constituency.

    The Tories are going to have the mother of all three line whips on this vote, they’re confident they can get everyone who wants one a notionally held seat - even if they have to hand a few knighthoods and peerages out to encourage some retirements.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,810

    Still I’m warming to Brexit.

    A no deal Brexit not only gets rid of Norn Iron it will deliver diamond hard austerity, particularly on the working classes who voted for Brexit, those buggers have been mollycoddled enough for too long, end working tax credits would be a start.

    Yet another vivid demonstration of why remain lost despite holding every advantage.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,991
    Mr. Eagles, *raises an eyebrow*

    You seem confused. I support the right of a free people to choose, freely and fairly, their own destiny. Whether that accords with my own view or not is not relevant when it comes to respecting that choice (of course, I don't have to like it, but that's another kettle of fish).

    You can pluck quotes if you like, and I could draw some from those who claimed Western Civilisation would fall and we'd have an immediate recession. Or we can deal with reality as it is, rather than false prophecies propounded during a terrible election campaign.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,685
    The DUP made a serious and unwonted blunder supporting Brexit. Unusually they have let their peripheral prejudices potentially prejudice their main strategic objective. Brexit has both disrupted Northern Ireland and shown the Northern Irish how little the rest of the UK cares about them. A United Ireland is as a result far more likely in due course than it was a couple of years ago.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    "It may not happen overnight, but it is a realistic prospect in the medium term in a world where the Tories increasingly prioritise Brexit over the Union and Jeremy Corbyn edges closer to Number 10."

    If politicians hold a vote and promise to enact the result, and then don't, that renders democracy rather pointless.

    I never wanted Scotland to leave the UK, but the voters there opted for the SNP and had the right to a referendum, and to have the result respected. Freedom of self-determination, whether for the Scots staying in the UK or the UK leaving the EU, is a cornerstone of democratic society.

    Edited extra bit: caught enough last night to see that the Moderates didn't appear to have topped the poll but thought I'd check for the detail. Quite remarkable that a BBC article on the Swedish election manages not to include party results (there are some voting bloc figures).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45466174

    But Leavers said we could Brexit without any risk of a Northern Ireland returning to a Hard Border or Irish reunification.

    Another bit of bullpoop from Vote Leave as anyone with half a brain cell knew this was inevitable as Leave’s promises were undeliverable.
    NI leaving increases the probability slightly of Corbyn forming a government ;)
    Another Brexit dividend.

    They just keep on stacking up.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,834
    daodao said:

    That is a concerning poll.

    Why? Irish re-unification would be a good thing, as would Scottish independence. Both the 6 counties and Scotland could then remain in/rejoin the EU, in line with the wishes of a significant majority of their inhabitants.
    .........and think of the numbers of us who could find Scottish or Irish ancestry and escape from the nutters who are likely to be running the country over the coming years. jeremy V Boris? ......I'd prefer the fate of Edward II.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,847
    Pulpstar said:

    Ulf of the Moderates is meeting the Swedish Democrats Monday for talks about forming a government.
    So even though the SDs were below expectations, they may end up doing well out of the election with an arrangement to the government.
    See Winston Peters lol

    Ostracising the Swedish Democrats is fuelling their support by insulting the voters, in my opinion.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,847
    daodao said:

    That is a concerning poll.

    Why? Irish re-unification would be a good thing, as would Scottish independence. Both the 6 counties and Scotland could then remain in/rejoin the EU, in line with the wishes of a significant majority of their inhabitants.
    I’m a Unionist.

    But, if the inhabitants of NI decide that belonging to the EU is more important to them than the UK then I guess I’ll just have to accept that.

    FWIW, I think the UK could survive Irish unification but not Scottish independence.
  • DavidL said:

    Still I’m warming to Brexit.

    A no deal Brexit not only gets rid of Norn Iron it will deliver diamond hard austerity, particularly on the working classes who voted for Brexit, those buggers have been mollycoddled enough for too long, end working tax credits would be a start.

    Yet another vivid demonstration of why remain lost despite holding every advantage.
    I’m just sharing the views of many prominent Leavers.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,757
    DavidL said:

    Still I’m warming to Brexit.

    A no deal Brexit not only gets rid of Norn Iron it will deliver diamond hard austerity, particularly on the working classes who voted for Brexit, those buggers have been mollycoddled enough for too long, end working tax credits would be a start.

    Yet another vivid demonstration of why remain lost despite holding every advantage.
    Remain did not hold 'every advantage'. Not even close.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,847

    Good morning, everyone.

    "It may not happen overnight, but it is a realistic prospect in the medium term in a world where the Tories increasingly prioritise Brexit over the Union and Jeremy Corbyn edges closer to Number 10."

    If politicians hold a vote and promise to enact the result, and then don't, that renders democracy rather pointless.

    I never wanted Scotland to leave the UK, but the voters there opted for the SNP and had the right to a referendum, and to have the result respected. Freedom of self-determination, whether for the Scots staying in the UK or the UK leaving the EU, is a cornerstone of democratic society.

    Edited extra bit: caught enough last night to see that the Moderates didn't appear to have topped the poll but thought I'd check for the detail. Quite remarkable that a BBC article on the Swedish election manages not to include party results (there are some voting bloc figures).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45466174

    But Leavers said we could Brexit without any risk of a Northern Ireland returning to a Hard Border or Irish reunification.

    Another bit of bullpoop from Vote Leave as anyone with half a brain cell knew this was inevitable as Leave’s promises were undeliverable.
    Of course, the silver lining from a hard Brexiteer’s point of view is that it’d massively ease border control and simplify negotiations with the EU as the island of GB could simply be autonomous as CETA+.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,847

    The new Parliamentary boundaries will be laid in Parliament today.

    This is very quick work, given that the Secretaries of State only received them 5 days ago.

    The longer they are debated the more likely they are to fail.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,842
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Holding this referendum is going to be one of PM Corbyn's priorities whether it's in the manifesto or not and if it occurs in a post-Brexit environment it will probably succeed. Irlande unie vaut bien un brexit, to misquote Henri-Quatre.

    When is Corbyn ever going to become PM? The next general election isn't due until 2022 and by that time he will have alienated even more of his GE2017 supporters including me in my ultra marginal seat.
    The relevant scenario is that Brexit turns into such a mess that electors stampede to vote for anyone but the Tories, who thrust all of this upon us. In such circumstances it won't matter that much who the opposition is.
    There is nothing in my ultra marginal seat that will persuade me to vote for a party led by Corbyn
    Maybe so, but would you vote for May, or Boris, or stick to the LDs?

    In such a seat, much would depend for me on the views of the local candidates.
    There are too many loons in the Labour Party, there are too many loons in the Conservative Party. The time has to be right for a centre party to sweep through the middle.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,570

    Good morning, everyone.

    "It may not happen overnight, but it is a realistic prospect in the medium term in a world where the Tories increasingly prioritise Brexit over the Union and Jeremy Corbyn edges closer to Number 10."

    If politicians hold a vote and promise to enact the result, and then don't, that renders democracy rather pointless.

    I never wanted Scotland to leave the UK, but the voters there opted for the SNP and had the right to a referendum, and to have the result respected. Freedom of self-determination, whether for the Scots staying in the UK or the UK leaving the EU, is a cornerstone of democratic society.

    Edited extra bit: caught enough last night to see that the Moderates didn't appear to have topped the poll but thought I'd check for the detail. Quite remarkable that a BBC article on the Swedish election manages not to include party results (there are some voting bloc figures).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45466174

    But Leavers said we could Brexit without any risk of a Northern Ireland returning to a Hard Border or Irish reunification.

    Another bit of bullpoop from Vote Leave as anyone with half a brain cell knew this was inevitable as Leave’s promises were undeliverable.
    Of course, the silver lining from a hard Brexiteer’s point of view is that it’d massively ease border control and simplify negotiations with the EU as the island of GB could simply be autonomous as CETA+.
    Will it all come down to a game of chicken between the ERG and the DUP?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,847

    Good morning, everyone.

    "It may not happen overnight, but it is a realistic prospect in the medium term in a world where the Tories increasingly prioritise Brexit over the Union and Jeremy Corbyn edges closer to Number 10."

    If politicians hold a vote and promise to enact the result, and then don't, that renders democracy rather pointless.

    I never wanted Scotland to leave the UK, but the voters there opted for the SNP and had the right to a referendum, and to have the result respected. Freedom of self-determination, whether for the Scots staying in the UK or the UK leaving the EU, is a cornerstone of democratic society.

    Edited extra bit: caught enough last night to see that the Moderates didn't appear to have topped the poll but thought I'd check for the detail. Quite remarkable that a BBC article on the Swedish election manages not to include party results (there are some voting bloc figures).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45466174

    But Leavers said we could Brexit without any risk of a Northern Ireland returning to a Hard Border or Irish reunification.

    Another bit of bullpoop from Vote Leave as anyone with half a brain cell knew this was inevitable as Leave’s promises were undeliverable.
    Of course, the silver lining from a hard Brexiteer’s point of view is that it’d massively ease border control and simplify negotiations with the EU as the island of GB could simply be autonomous as CETA+.
    Will it all come down to a game of chicken between the ERG and the DUP?
    At the moment, I’d say May can only count on 240-250 votes.

    That isn’t enough.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,810

    DavidL said:

    Still I’m warming to Brexit.

    A no deal Brexit not only gets rid of Norn Iron it will deliver diamond hard austerity, particularly on the working classes who voted for Brexit, those buggers have been mollycoddled enough for too long, end working tax credits would be a start.

    Yet another vivid demonstration of why remain lost despite holding every advantage.
    Remain did not hold 'every advantage'. Not even close.
    Really? They had the government of the day supporting them and spending government money on propaganda, they abused the Treasury to produce misleading and dishonest forecasts, they had big industry supporting them through the CBI, they had at least the nominal support of the Opposition and the SNP, they had and spent more money, they had very favourable coverage in the electronic media, they had the status quo and they had the support of the Unions, by a large majority. It took extraordinary skill and a deeply patronising attitude to lose with that lot.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,847
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Ignorance of NI Secretaries is nothing new. There was a good story of one of the multitude of NI Secretaries under Blair being shown a map which showed the areas of Catholic and Protestant strength. He asked what the large blue bit was. Oh, that's lough neagh came the answer.

    NI has always been different and has become more so over the years. When the SDLP sat with Labour and the Ulster Unionists sat with the Tories the fact that they had different political parties wasn't so obvious but with the virtual collapse of those two and the domination of the DUP and Sinn Fein their role in UK politics is normally much diminished. The Catholics are pretty much excluded altogether by the decisions of Sinn Fein not to sit in the Commons.

    Add in the NI assembly by which they are making their own laws and the largely incomprehensible (to anyone in the UK outside west Scotland) obsession of division by religion and we have a country of which we know little and understand less. At the moment the DUP are playing an important role in the Commons and the Assembly is not sitting but when we return to more normal times it is not hard to see NI drifting away from a country it has limited amounts in common with.

    Agree with most of what you say except the last sentence.
    I went to school in Northern Ireland although it was quite a few years ago, has it really changed that much that the Protestant majority would meekly acquiesce in a united Ireland?
    You are in a much better position to judge than me. I was rather focusing on the British viewpoint. The Northern Irish are not integrated into the UK in the way that Scotland and Wales are and have chosen to be different. I agree with Keiran that on this side of the water there is likely to be more than a fair amount of indifference. Whether this would last if, say, 200k NI protestants decided they were leaving and coming to the mainland who can tell?
    An interesting question is whether the Irish republic has the civil or military apparatus to control and maintain peace in Northern Ireland, particularly in the solidly Unionist areas that on these numbers would (still) wish 75%+ to stay in the UK.

    Not a problem I’d like to have as Taioseach.
  • eekeek Posts: 2,172
    edited September 10
    Utterly offtopic for NI but linking the last but one thread (Sweden) and this forums other favourite topic

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,810

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Ignorance of NI Secretaries is nothing new. There was a good story of one of the multitude of NI Secretaries under Blair being shown a map which showed the areas of Catholic and Protestant strength. He asked what the large blue bit was. Oh, that's lough neagh came the answer.

    NI has always been different and has become more so over the years. When the SDLP sat with Labour and the Ulster Unionists sat with the Tories the fact that they had different political parties wasn't so obvious but with the virtual collapse of those two and the domination of the DUP and Sinn Fein their role in UK politics is normally much diminished. The Catholics are pretty much excluded altogether by the decisions of Sinn Fein not to sit in the Commons.

    Add in the NI assembly by which they are making their own laws and the largely incomprehensible (to anyone in the UK outside west Scotland) obsession of division by religion and we have a country of which we know little and understand less. At the moment the DUP are playing an important role in the Commons and the Assembly is not sitting but when we return to more normal times it is not hard to see NI drifting away from a country it has limited amounts in common with.

    Agree with most of what you say except the last sentence.
    I went to school in Northern Ireland although it was quite a few years ago, has it really changed that much that the Protestant majority would meekly acquiesce in a united Ireland?
    You are in a much better position to judge than me. I was rather focusing on the British viewpoint. The Northern Irish are not integrated into the UK in the way that Scotland and Wales are and have chosen to be different. I agree with Keiran that on this side of the water there is likely to be more than a fair amount of indifference. Whether this would last if, say, 200k NI protestants decided they were leaving and coming to the mainland who can tell?
    An interesting question is whether the Irish republic has the civil or military apparatus to control and maintain peace in Northern Ireland, particularly in the solidly Unionist areas that on these numbers would (still) wish 75%+ to stay in the UK.

    Not a problem I’d like to have as Taioseach.
    I also wondered if FF and FG would particularly welcome such a solid block of SF supporters coming into their electorate and upsetting the balance.
  • eekeek Posts: 2,172
    edited September 10
    On topic - the 40-50 year old Northern Ireland Protestants I know (albeit they are educated and some tend towards the Alliance) are now willingly and openingly discussing a united Ireland. That was impossible to imagine a year ago....
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,757
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Still I’m warming to Brexit.

    A no deal Brexit not only gets rid of Norn Iron it will deliver diamond hard austerity, particularly on the working classes who voted for Brexit, those buggers have been mollycoddled enough for too long, end working tax credits would be a start.

    Yet another vivid demonstration of why remain lost despite holding every advantage.
    Remain did not hold 'every advantage'. Not even close.
    Really? They had the government of the day supporting them and spending government money on propaganda, they abused the Treasury to produce misleading and dishonest forecasts, they had big industry supporting them through the CBI, they had at least the nominal support of the Opposition and the SNP, they had and spent more money, they had very favourable coverage in the electronic media, they had the status quo and they had the support of the Unions, by a large majority. It took extraordinary skill and a deeply patronising attitude to lose with that lot.
    Yes, really. for one, the above is rather one-eyed. And Leave had the *massive* advantage of not having to produce a realistic view or plan of what Brexit meant, so they could lie to voters by promising inconsistent and unworkable things. They also had some rather heavy-hitters on their side, plus, as Meeks would add, a fair amount of sick xenophobia.

    To be fair to them, they haven't bothered producing a plan in the two years since the vote, either.

    To wind people up, I could also add illegal spending onto that. ;)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,570

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Ignorance of NI Secretaries is nothing new. There was a good story of one of the multitude of NI Secretaries under Blair being shown a map which showed the areas of Catholic and Protestant strength. He asked what the large blue bit was. Oh, that's lough neagh came the answer.

    NI has always been different and has become more so over the years. When the SDLP sat with Labour and the Ulster Unionists sat with the Tories the fact that they had different political parties wasn't so obvious but with the virtual collapse of those two and the domination of the DUP and Sinn Fein their role in UK politics is normally much diminished. The Catholics are pretty much excluded altogether by the decisions of Sinn Fein not to sit in the Commons.

    Add in the NI assembly by which they are making their own laws and the largely incomprehensible (to anyone in the UK outside west Scotland) obsession of division by religion and we have a country of which we know little and understand less. At the moment the DUP are playing an important role in the Commons and the Assembly is not sitting but when we return to more normal times it is not hard to see NI drifting away from a country it has limited amounts in common with.

    Agree with most of what you say except the last sentence.
    I went to school in Northern Ireland although it was quite a few years ago, has it really changed that much that the Protestant majority would meekly acquiesce in a united Ireland?
    You are in a much better position to judge than me. I was rather focusing on the British viewpoint. The Northern Irish are not integrated into the UK in the way that Scotland and Wales are and have chosen to be different. I agree with Keiran that on this side of the water there is likely to be more than a fair amount of indifference. Whether this would last if, say, 200k NI protestants decided they were leaving and coming to the mainland who can tell?
    An interesting question is whether the Irish republic has the civil or military apparatus to control and maintain peace in Northern Ireland, particularly in the solidly Unionist areas that on these numbers would (still) wish 75%+ to stay in the UK.

    Not a problem I’d like to have as Taioseach.
    It's interesting that they've poached Drew Harris from the PSNI to be garda commissioner, both from a symbolic and an operational perspective.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,269
    Any idea when the Swedish election results become official. Betfair Sportsboom hasn't settled yet.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,239
    DavidL said:

    Still I’m warming to Brexit.

    A no deal Brexit not only gets rid of Norn Iron it will deliver diamond hard austerity, particularly on the working classes who voted for Brexit, those buggers have been mollycoddled enough for too long, end working tax credits would be a start.

    Yet another vivid demonstration of why remain lost despite holding every advantage.
    I know such a thing would be utterly out of character, but is it just possible that TSE was employing irony ?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,046
    A measured article picking up on changes in NI

    Ultimately the biggest issue is the demographics shifts in NI society. NI is majority Catholic below the age of 35 and getting more so as you go down the age groups.

    To date about a third of Catholics have been happy in the UK for a variety of reasons though primarily economic. That is now uncertain until Brexit settles down.

    For nationalsists the economic success of the RoI is something they think will wipe Unionists objections away and theyll all vote with their pockects. To me this is just plain pie in the sky.
    The RoI has first to shift the violent heritage if they are to get a hearing and currently thats not something they are addressing.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,810
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Still I’m warming to Brexit.

    A no deal Brexit not only gets rid of Norn Iron it will deliver diamond hard austerity, particularly on the working classes who voted for Brexit, those buggers have been mollycoddled enough for too long, end working tax credits would be a start.

    Yet another vivid demonstration of why remain lost despite holding every advantage.
    I know such a thing would be utterly out of character, but is it just possible that TSE was employing irony ?
    Or that I was doing the same? TSE loves to wind people up and that is no fun if there is no response.
  • ABLAABLABLAABL Posts: 23
    The way I see it the DUP have gambled that there won't be an election until 2022, there won't be a border poll called (it's hard to trigger without an election) and that they can deal with their problems then....

    https://www.abitleftandabitlost.com/posts/this-was-a-victory-for-the-dup-and-will-be-worth-it-if-there-is-no-general-election-until-2022
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,834
    This ss all of Theresa May's own making. She was under no obligation to appoint Boris Foreign Secretary. He was finished at that time and for reasons only known to herself she gave him a platform and made him important again. He's killing her government.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,046

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Ignorance of NI Secretaries is nothing new. There was a good story of one of the multitude of NI Secretaries under Blair being shown a map which showed the areas of Catholic and Protestant strength. He asked what the large blue bit was. Oh, that's lough neagh came the answer.

    NI has always been different and has become more so over the years. When the SDLP sat with Labour and the Ulster Unionists sat with the Tories the fact that they had different political parties wasn't so obvious but with the virtual collapse of those two and the domination of the DUP and Sinn Fein their role in UK politics is normally much diminished. The Catholics are pretty much excluded altogether by the decisions of Sinn Fein not to sit in the Commons.

    Add in the NI assembly by which they are making their own laws and the largely incomprehensible (to anyone in the UK outside west Scotland) obsession of division by religion and we have a country of which we know little and understand less. At the moment the DUP are playing an important role in the Commons and the Assembly is not sitting but when we return to more normal times it is not hard to see NI drifting away from a country it has limited amounts in common with.

    Agree with most of what you say except the last sentence.
    I went to school in Northern Ireland although it was quite a few years ago, has it really changed that much that the Protestant majority would meekly acquiesce in a united Ireland?
    You are in a much better position to judge than me. I was rather focusing on the British viewpoint. The Northern Irish are not integrated into the UK in the way that Scotland and Wales are and have chosen to be different. I agree with Keiran that on this side of the water there is likely to be more than a fair amount of indifference. Whether this would last if, say, 200k NI protestants decided they were leaving and coming to the mainland who can tell?
    An interesting question is whether the Irish republic has the civil or military apparatus to control and maintain peace in Northern Ireland, particularly in the solidly Unionist areas that on these numbers would (still) wish 75%+ to stay in the UK.

    Not a problem I’d like to have as Taioseach.
    It's interesting that they've poached Drew Harris from the PSNI to be garda commissioner, both from a symbolic and an operational perspective.
    No

    they needed an outsider since the Garda have had major scandals on cover ups and corruption that they needed a clean break. Harris at least had the advantage of knowng how most the criminals in the South operate since they venture up north.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,847
    IanB2 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Obviously, the greater the divergence the greater the benefits will be to the UK and NI (as even the EU now seem to admit), which will again make unification less likely.

    The opposite I think. The greater the divergence the greater the damage.
    As for unification, no idea. I would suggest any referendum should require a threshold of 60-65% to be successful (learning from Brexit).
    Indeed. That some people see the political change as a benefit I can at least understand, even though to me it simply means decisions previously taken by an undemocratic EU being shifted to an undemocratic UK Parliament. But I have yet to see any convincing explanation as to how Brexit can deliver any significant economic benefit, other than the saving in contribution (which most likely will disappear into an ocean of other damage).

    All you tend to get from leavers is some vague waffle about trade agreements, overlooking the fact of our reduced leverage outside the EU and that some of the world's most successful trading nations have become so within the EU.
    Non-tariff trade barriers will increase slightly as a consequence of us leaving the EU (economic negative) however, the EU has been very sluggish for decades in liberalising services within the single market, and may never do so. It has also been slow to drop tariffs.

    That’s why I support Chequers: it would leave our pan-continental supply chains largely undisturbed, whilst still allowing us to strike new trade deals with lower tariffs, and we will gain much more freedom to regulate services and digital, as well as additional controls on free movement.

    It’s all about striking the right strategic balance for the UK between goods and services and I’ve always said I’m happy for us to go from half-in/half-out to half-out/half-in provided the balance is right.

    In the longer term I’d expect we’d develop a form of associate membership for the common market in goods with official observer status and a measure of voting rights.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,046

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Ignorance of NI Secretaries is nothing new. There was a good story of one of the multitude of NI Secretaries under Blair being shown a map which showed the areas of Catholic and Protestant strength. He asked what the large blue bit was. Oh, that's lough neagh came the answer.

    NI has always been different and has become more so over the years. When the SDLP sat with Labour and the Ulster Unionists sat with the Tories the fact that they had different political parties wasn't so obvious but with the virtual collapse of those two and the domination of the DUP and Sinn Fein their role in UK politics is normally much diminished. The Catholics are pretty much excluded altogether by the decisions of Sinn Fein not to sit in the Commons.

    Add in the NI assembly by which they are making their own laws and the largely incomprehensible (to anyone in the UK outside west Scotland) obsession of division by religion and we have a country of which we know little and understand less. At the moment the DUP are playing an important role in the Commons and the Assembly is not sitting but when we return to more normal times it is not hard to see NI drifting away from a country it has limited amounts in common with.

    Agree with most of what you say except the last sentence.
    I went to school in Northern Ireland although it was quite a few years ago, has it really changed that much that the Protestant majority would meekly acquiesce in a united Ireland?
    You are in a much better position to judge than me. I was rather focusing on the British viewpoint. The Northern Irish are not integrated into the UK in the way that Scotland and Wales are and have chosen to be different. I agree with Keiran that on this side of the water there is likely to be more than a fair amount of indifference. Whether this would last if, say, 200k NI protestants decided they were leaving and coming to the mainland who can tell?
    An interesting question is whether the Irish republic has the civil or military apparatus to control and maintain peace in Northern Ireland, particularly in the solidly Unionist areas that on these numbers would (still) wish 75%+ to stay in the UK.

    Not a problem I’d like to have as Taioseach.
    They dont

    the Garda struggle to control the drug gangs of North Dublin
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,740
    If the EU want a hard border, they can ask Varadkar to build one. If Varadkar is still Taoiseach in a few months time.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,810
    Roger said:

    This ss all of Theresa May's own making. She was under no obligation to appoint Boris Foreign Secretary. He was finished at that time and for reasons only known to herself she gave him a platform and made him important again. He's killing her government.

    Not sure I agree with that Roger. Making Boris FS proved an inspired move. It removed any doubt as to whether this man was actually capable of performing the top job as well as involving him deeply in her government's BINO style negotiations. He came out deeply damaged.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,757
    Roger said:

    This ss all of Theresa May's own making. She was under no obligation to appoint Boris Foreign Secretary. He was finished at that time and for reasons only known to herself she gave him a platform and made him important again. He's killing her government.

    I fear it was a damned-if-she-does, damned-if-she-doesnt moment.

    Boris' support for Brexit before the referendum can be seen as a big bonus for them (another example showing how ridiculous the claim that remain held 'every advantage' is), and not giving him a position would have caused major ructions amongst the Conservative leavers.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 20,153
    eek said:

    Utterly offtopic for NI but linking the last but one thread (Sweden) and this forums other favourite topic

    Banana on pizza is just....inhuman.
  • eek said:

    Utterly offtopic for NI but linking the last but one thread (Sweden) and this forums other favourite topic

    Banana on pizza is just....inhuman.
    Still a better choice than pineapple.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,740
    Mentioning a suicide vest is now 'offensive'? Really? It might be silly and a little over the top, but offensive? I think politicians need to meet real people more.

    Jehovah, Jehovah, Jehovah.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,174
    Alistair said:

    Any idea when the Swedish election results become official. Betfair Sportsboom hasn't settled yet.

    Wednesday. There are still some tens of thousands of postal votes which arrived at the last moment, many of them from abroad, to be counted. Traditionally, these votes tend to favour the Moderates (M) slightly (typically changing the result by 0.1-0.2%), so as last night's provisional result gives a centre-left lead of 0.3% and 1 seat, it could change the position.

    Apart from the psychological boost of one bloc coming first, it doesn't, of course, change the choices of government. The Sweden Democrats (SD) are complaining that no other party has made any contact with them, and it's clear that everyone else is unwilling to work with them. The four choices seem to be:

    1. Social Democrats (S) government with Greens and some small opposition parties. This would break open the blocs. S likes it, nobody else does, and there are moderately significsant policy differences on taxes and welfare.

    2. Continuation of the current government as a minority. The Moderates said they would strongly oppose that throughout the campaign, and it might push the centre-right into talking with the SD. Possibly a change in S leader to give a new PM might work, but this doesn't seem to be under discussion.

    3. M minority government. This would split the difference and might be more stable that it sounds - the Left and Greens are unlikely to vote on many issues with the SD. But here psychology matters - if M's bloc has fewest seats, it just looks wrong to form a government.

    4. Coalition of S,M and smaller centre-right parties plus maybe Greens. Grand coalition a la Germany, difficult as the blocs have been very fixed in opposing each other - and it might be a gift to SD and Left.

    New elections are unlikely - the basic arithmetic isn't going to change, and turnout at 86% means there isn't a pool of non-voters to change anything dramatically. Because policy differences aren't that huge, nobody is panicking, but it's acknowledged as a difficult puzzle.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,847

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Ignorance of NI Secretaries is nothing new. There was a good story of one of the multitude of NI Secretaries under Blair being shown a map which showed the areas of Catholic and Protestant strength. He asked what the large blue bit was. Oh, that's lough neagh came the answer.

    NI has always been different and has become more so over the years. When the SDLP sat with Labour and the Ulster Unionists sat with the Tories the fact that they had different political parties wasn't so obvious but with the virtual collapse of those two and the domination of the DUP and Sinn Fein their role in UK politics is normally much diminished. The Catholics are pretty much excluded altogether by the decisions of Sinn Fein not to sit in the Commons.

    Add in the NI assembly by which they are making their own laws and the largely incomprehensible (to anyone in the UK outside west Scotland) obsession of division by religion and we have a country of which we know little and understand less. At the moment the DUP are playing an important role in the Commons and the Assembly is not sitting but when we return to more normal times it is not hard to see NI drifting away from a country it has limited amounts in common with.

    Agree with most of what you say except the last sentence.
    I went to school in Northern Ireland although it was quite a few years ago, has it really changed that much that the Protestant majority would meekly acquiesce in a united Ireland?
    You are in a much better position to judge than me. I was rather focusing on the British viewpoint. The Northern Irish are not integrated into the UK in the way that Scotland and Wales are and have chosen to be different. I agree with Keiran that on this side of the water there is likely to be more than a fair amount of indifference. Whether this would last if, say, 200k NI protestants decided they were leaving and coming to the mainland who can tell?
    An interesting question is whether the Irish republic has the civil or military apparatus to control and maintain peace in Northern Ireland, particularly in the solidly Unionist areas that on these numbers would (still) wish 75%+ to stay in the UK.

    Not a problem I’d like to have as Taioseach.
    It's interesting that they've poached Drew Harris from the PSNI to be garda commissioner, both from a symbolic and an operational perspective.
    No more interesting than the Bank of England picking Mark Carney, in my view.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,990
    Roger said:

    This ss all of Theresa May's own making. She was under no obligation to appoint Boris Foreign Secretary. He was finished at that time and for reasons only known to herself she gave him a platform and made him important again. He's killing her government.

    She gave Boris enough rope to hang himself. He proved himself totally unsuitable for high office even before he was in the papers again this weekend for the wrong reasons. Why should he expect us to trust him, when his own wife doesn’t?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,570

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Ignorance of NI Secretaries is nothing new. There was a good story of one of the multitude of NI Secretaries under Blair being shown a map which showed the areas of Catholic and Protestant strength. He asked what the large blue bit was. Oh, that's lough neagh came the answer.

    NI has always been different and has become more so over the years. When the SDLP sat with Labour and the Ulster Unionists sat with the Tories the fact that they had different political parties wasn't so obvious but with the virtual collapse of those two and the domination of the DUP and Sinn Fein their role in UK politics is normally much diminished. The Catholics are pretty much excluded altogether by the decisions of Sinn Fein not to sit in the Commons.

    Add in the NI assembly by which they are making their own laws and the largely incomprehensible (to anyone in the UK outside west Scotland) obsession of division by religion and we have a country of which we know little and understand less. At the moment the DUP are playing an important role in the Commons and the Assembly is not sitting but when we return to more normal times it is not hard to see NI drifting away from a country it has limited amounts in common with.

    Agree with most of what you say except the last sentence.
    I went to school in Northern Ireland although it was quite a few years ago, has it really changed that much that the Protestant majority would meekly acquiesce in a united Ireland?
    You are in a much better position to judge than me. I was rather focusing on the British viewpoint. The Northern Irish are not integrated into the UK in the way that Scotland and Wales are and have chosen to be different. I agree with Keiran that on this side of the water there is likely to be more than a fair amount of indifference. Whether this would last if, say, 200k NI protestants decided they were leaving and coming to the mainland who can tell?
    An interesting question is whether the Irish republic has the civil or military apparatus to control and maintain peace in Northern Ireland, particularly in the solidly Unionist areas that on these numbers would (still) wish 75%+ to stay in the UK.

    Not a problem I’d like to have as Taioseach.
    It's interesting that they've poached Drew Harris from the PSNI to be garda commissioner, both from a symbolic and an operational perspective.
    No more interesting than the Bank of England picking Mark Carney, in my view.
    Good analogy but isn’t it more like the Bank of England picking someone from the Bundesbank?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,460

    Dura_Ace said:

    Holding this referendum is going to be one of PM Corbyn's priorities whether it's in the manifesto or not and if it occurs in a post-Brexit environment it will probably succeed. Irlande unie vaut bien un brexit, to misquote Henri-Quatre.

    When is Corbyn ever going to become PM? The next general election isn't due until 2022 and by that time he will have alienated even more of his GE2017 supporters including me in my ultra marginal seat.
    I notice that OGH has, along with the most powerful men on the planet, started to post in the middle of the night !!

    In other, completely unrelated, news POTUS considers a state visit to Bedford .....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,979
    Alistair said:

    Any idea when the Swedish election results become official. Betfair Sportsboom hasn't settled yet.

    Yes I'd like this settled as I now have a grand tied up on the exchange lol
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,174



    Based on my somewhat limited knowledge (a touch above Karen Bradley's) I wonder if Brexit aside having the DUP as the main representatives of unionism is a driver in negative attitudes towards unionism.

    Interesting point - do others with more knowledge than me know if that's the case, perhaps among younger voters? The changes in Eire may also be having an effect - it's very clearly less hardline Catholic than it used to be.
  • Interesting, but not surprising. The Conservative party is morphing into a right wing English nationalist party. Given that, you would expect that over time - and at an accelerated pace post-Brexit thanks to Labour's unelectability - progressive unionists in both Northern Ireland and Scotland will begin to shift their positions towards reunification/separation. It's a trend I would very much regret, but could not argue against.

    I have long suspected that the Brexit end game is a break-up of the UK. I am pretty sure a lot of Scottish Tories think that, too; which is why so many were opposed to Brexit.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 15,106
    Good article.

    Jezza coming to the stump in 2022 (or sooner) promising all kinds of bribes for NI to rejoin the RoI would certainly shake things up.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,174



    Edited extra bit: caught enough last night to see that the Moderates didn't appear to have topped the poll but thought I'd check for the detail. Quite remarkable that a BBC article on the Swedish election manages not to include party results (there are some voting bloc figures).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45466174

    Detailed figures with background here:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_general_election,_2018

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,046

    Interesting, but not surprising. The Conservative party is morphing into a right wing English nationalist party. Given that, you would expect that over time - and at an accelerated pace post-Brexit thanks to Labour's unelectability - progressive unionists in both Northern Ireland and Scotland will begin to shift their positions towards reunification/separation. It's a trend I would very much regret, but could not argue against.

    I have long suspected that the Brexit end game is a break-up of the UK. I am pretty sure a lot of Scottish Tories think that, too; which is why so many were opposed to Brexit.

    can you point me to the left wing crusade to keep the UK together ?

    Labour is no better than the conservatives
  • eek said:

    On topic - the 40-50 year old Northern Ireland Protestants I know (albeit they are educated and some tend towards the Alliance) are now willingly and openingly discussing a united Ireland. That was impossible to imagine a year ago....

    Yep - one of my work colleagues, a 49 year-old Protestant who always gets very angry when I say I am English, not British, and whose Dad was in the RUC, is now a lot more open to reunificaiotn than he used to be. Brexit was a gamechanger for him, even though he and his children have Irish passports and so are largely unaffected by it at a personal level.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,685
    If Keiran is reading below the line, he'll enjoy seeing this tweet:

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,239

    eek said:

    Utterly offtopic for NI but linking the last but one thread (Sweden) and this forums other favourite topic

    Banana on pizza is just....inhuman.
    Still a better choice than pineapple.
    But note the two seem to have been employed on the same pizza.
  • Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    This ss all of Theresa May's own making. She was under no obligation to appoint Boris Foreign Secretary. He was finished at that time and for reasons only known to herself she gave him a platform and made him important again. He's killing her government.

    She gave Boris enough rope to hang himself. He proved himself totally unsuitable for high office even before he was in the papers again this weekend for the wrong reasons. Why should he expect us to trust him, when his own wife doesn’t?
    Papers reporting that his wife will accuse him of being a serial adulterer

    And Steve Baker saying upto 80 conservative mps will take Chequers down and split the party while 12 colleagues have said they will resign from the party if Boris becomes leader ( and I would join them)

    If Baker and ERG vote down TM's deal I will join the demand for a second referendum
  • mattmatt Posts: 2,060

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Ignorance of NI Secretaries is nothing new. There was a good story of one of the multitude of NI Secretaries under Blair being shown a map which showed the areas of Catholic and Protestant strength. He asked what the large blue bit was. Oh, that's lough neagh came the answer.

    NI has always been different and has become more so over the years. When the SDLP sat with Labour and the Ulster Unionists sat with the Tories the fact that they had different political parties wasn't so obvious but with the virtual collapse of those two and the domination of the DUP and Sinn Fein their role in UK politics is normally much diminished. The Catholics are pretty much excluded altogether by the decisions of Sinn Fein not to sit in the Commons.

    Add in the NI assembly by which they are making their own laws and the largely incomprehensible (to anyone in the UK outside west Scotland) obsession of division by religion and we have a country of which we know little and understand less. At the moment the DUP are playing an important role in the Commons and the Assembly is not sitting but when we return to more normal times it is not hard to see NI drifting away from a country it has limited amounts in common with.

    Agree with most of what you say except the last sentence.
    I went to school in Northern Ireland although it was quite a few years ago, has it really changed that much that the Protestant majority would meekly acquiesce in a united Ireland?
    You are in a much better position to judge than me. I was rather focusing on the British viewpoint. The Northern Irish are not integrated into the UK in the way that Scotland and Wales are and have chosen to be different. I agree with Keiran that on this side of the water there is likely to be more than a fair amount of indifference. Whether this would last if, say, 200k NI protestants decided they were leaving and coming to the mainland who can tell?
    An interesting question is whether the Irish republic has the civil or military apparatus to control and maintain peace in Northern Ireland, particularly in the solidly Unionist areas that on these numbers would (still) wish 75%+ to stay in the UK.

    Not a problem I’d like to have as Taioseach.
    It's interesting that they've poached Drew Harris from the PSNI to be garda commissioner, both from a symbolic and an operational perspective.
    No more interesting than the Bank of England picking Mark Carney, in my view.
    Only interesting in that for some everything is a nail to be hit with the hammer of one-eyed obsession.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,847

    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    This ss all of Theresa May's own making. She was under no obligation to appoint Boris Foreign Secretary. He was finished at that time and for reasons only known to herself she gave him a platform and made him important again. He's killing her government.

    She gave Boris enough rope to hang himself. He proved himself totally unsuitable for high office even before he was in the papers again this weekend for the wrong reasons. Why should he expect us to trust him, when his own wife doesn’t?
    Papers reporting that his wife will accuse him of being a serial adulterer

    And Steve Baker saying upto 80 conservative mps will take Chequers down and split the party while 12 colleagues have said they will resign from the party if Boris becomes leader ( and I would join them)

    If Baker and ERG vote down TM's deal I will join the demand for a second referendum
    But, why now? Why was this affair that broke the camel’s back?

    Boris is a narcissist. Could it be he blamed his wife for talking him into supporting Brexit, and thus “ruining” his career? Nothing to do with him. Did she take umbrage at that and there were several flaming stand-up rows?

    It wouldn’t surprise me. I trust May more than Boris on Brexit.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,847

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Ignorance of NI Secretaries is nothing new. There was a good story of one of the multitude of NI Secretaries under Blair being shown a map which showed the areas of Catholic and Protestant strength. He asked what the large blue bit was. Oh, that's lough neagh came the answer.

    NI has always been different

    Agree with most of what you say except the last sentence.
    I went to school in Northern Ireland although it was quite a few years ago, has it really changed that much that the Protestant majority would meekly acquiesce in a united Ireland?
    You are in a much better position to judge than me. I was rather focusing on the British viewpoint. The Northern Irish are not integrated into the UK in the way that Scotland and Wales are and have chosen to be different. I agree with Keiran that on this side of the water there is likely to be more than a fair amount of indifference. Whether this would last if, say, 200k NI protestants decided they were leaving and coming to the mainland who can tell?
    An interesting question is whether the Irish republic has the civil or military apparatus to control and maintain peace in Northern Ireland, particularly in the solidly Unionist areas that on these numbers would (still) wish 75%+ to stay in the UK.

    Not a problem I’d like to have as Taioseach.
    It's interesting that they've poached Drew Harris from the PSNI to be garda commissioner, both from a symbolic and an operational perspective.
    No more interesting than the Bank of England picking Mark Carney, in my view.
    Good analogy but isn’t it more like the Bank of England picking someone from the Bundesbank?
    That may be going too far the other way: NI and Eire share both a language and common policing challenges.
  • Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    This ss all of Theresa May's own making. She was under no obligation to appoint Boris Foreign Secretary. He was finished at that time and for reasons only known to herself she gave him a platform and made him important again. He's killing her government.

    She gave Boris enough rope to hang himself. He proved himself totally unsuitable for high office even before he was in the papers again this weekend for the wrong reasons. Why should he expect us to trust him, when his own wife doesn’t?
    Hear hear. Somebody doing something foolish once is forgivable in most people's eyes, but this is an individual who is a serial adultery and an ego that is no way proportionate to his abilities. His record of dishonesty lies and deceit would make Charles Ponzi look like a model of transparency and moral rectitude
  • Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    Utterly offtopic for NI but linking the last but one thread (Sweden) and this forums other favourite topic

    Banana on pizza is just....inhuman.
    Still a better choice than pineapple.
    But note the two seem to have been employed on the same pizza.
    If you ever wonder why aliens refuse to make contact with us thus is why.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 39,332
    R4 today seems to be a parade of ministers stating how much they dislike BoZo.

    If he became leader, Redwood really would be back in the cabinet...
  • Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    This ss all of Theresa May's own making. She was under no obligation to appoint Boris Foreign Secretary. He was finished at that time and for reasons only known to herself she gave him a platform and made him important again. He's killing her government.

    She gave Boris enough rope to hang himself. He proved himself totally unsuitable for high office even before he was in the papers again this weekend for the wrong reasons. Why should he expect us to trust him, when his own wife doesn’t?
    Boris's marital problems should not disqualify him from high office. Roger does have a point. If Theresa May already knew that Boris was unsuitable to be Foreign Secretary, then why appoint him?

    Has Number 10 blown its own foot off while knee-capping Boris over the weekend? In particular by leaking the May team's research on Boris from the last leadership election, which suggests Theresa May appointed a Foreign Secretary she knew would be a disastrous Foreign Secretary. The half-hearted defence being spun is that she did it to give him enough rope is nonsense. She got rid of George Osborne in short order.
  • Interesting, but not surprising. The Conservative party is morphing into a right wing English nationalist party. Given that, you would expect that over time - and at an accelerated pace post-Brexit thanks to Labour's unelectability - progressive unionists in both Northern Ireland and Scotland will begin to shift their positions towards reunification/separation. It's a trend I would very much regret, but could not argue against.

    I have long suspected that the Brexit end game is a break-up of the UK. I am pretty sure a lot of Scottish Tories think that, too; which is why so many were opposed to Brexit.

    can you point me to the left wing crusade to keep the UK together ?

    Labour is no better than the conservatives

    I agree. Corbyn would be delighted if the union broke up. He has always wanted a united Ireland, after all, and it it's pretty clear he has no strong desire to keep Scotland and England together. If he gets that and Brexit in his lifetime he will die a very contented old man.

  • Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    This ss all of Theresa May's own making. She was under no obligation to appoint Boris Foreign Secretary. He was finished at that time and for reasons only known to herself she gave him a platform and made him important again. He's killing her government.

    She gave Boris enough rope to hang himself. He proved himself totally unsuitable for high office even before he was in the papers again this weekend for the wrong reasons. Why should he expect us to trust him, when his own wife doesn’t?
    Papers reporting that his wife will accuse him of being a serial adulterer

    And Steve Baker saying upto 80 conservative mps will take Chequers down and split the party while 12 colleagues have said they will resign from the party if Boris becomes leader ( and I would join them)

    If Baker and ERG vote down TM's deal I will join the demand for a second referendum
    I will sadly resign my membership of the Conservative Party if Boris Johnson becomes leader. It already no longer resembles the party I joined, but if this dishonest treacherous buffoon becomes leader it will be time to go.
  • Interesting, but not surprising. The Conservative party is morphing into a right wing English nationalist party. Given that, you would expect that over time - and at an accelerated pace post-Brexit thanks to Labour's unelectability - progressive unionists in both Northern Ireland and Scotland will begin to shift their positions towards reunification/separation. It's a trend I would very much regret, but could not argue against.

    I have long suspected that the Brexit end game is a break-up of the UK. I am pretty sure a lot of Scottish Tories think that, too; which is why so many were opposed to Brexit.

    can you point me to the left wing crusade to keep the UK together ?

    Labour is no better than the conservatives

    I agree. Corbyn would be delighted if the union broke up. He has always wanted a united Ireland, after all, and it it's pretty clear he has no strong desire to keep Scotland and England together. If he gets that and Brexit in his lifetime he will die a very contented old man.

    He will be particularly contented as he will have pleased his boss in the Kremlin
  • Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    This ss all of Theresa May's own making. She was under no obligation to appoint Boris Foreign Secretary. He was finished at that time and for reasons only known to herself she gave him a platform and made him important again. He's killing her government.

    She gave Boris enough rope to hang himself. He proved himself totally unsuitable for high office even before he was in the papers again this weekend for the wrong reasons. Why should he expect us to trust him, when his own wife doesn’t?
    Papers reporting that his wife will accuse him of being a serial adulterer
    She reads the papers then? Of course Boris is a serial adulterer. Everyone knows that, including his wife, and everyone knows his wife knows. Wasn't it Max Hastings who, when Boris asked him about running for Mayor, told him to keep his trousers zipped up?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,482
    edited September 10
    Deleted.
  • Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    This ss all of Theresa May's own making. She was under no obligation to appoint Boris Foreign Secretary. He was finished at that time and for reasons only known to herself she gave him a platform and made him important again. He's killing her government.

    She gave Boris enough rope to hang himself. He proved himself totally unsuitable for high office even before he was in the papers again this weekend for the wrong reasons. Why should he expect us to trust him, when his own wife doesn’t?

    The give him enough rope theory only works if Johnson has, indeed, hanged himself. We do not know that right now. He seems very popular among grassroots Tories, for some reason. But then I could never see Corbyn's appeal either!

  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 2,597

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Ignorance of NI Secretaries is nothing new. There was a good story of one of the multitude of NI Secretaries under Blair being shown a map which showed the areas of Catholic and Protestant strength. He asked what the large blue bit was. Oh, that's lough neagh came the answer.

    NI has always been different and has become more so over the years. When the SDLP sat with Labour and the Ulster Unionists sat with the Tories the fact that they had different political parties wasn't so obvious but with the virtual collapse of those two and the domination of the DUP and Sinn Fein their role in UK politics is normally much diminished. The Catholics are pretty much excluded altogether by the decisions of Sinn Fein not to sit in the Commons.

    Add in the NI assembly by which they are making their own laws and the largely incomprehensible (to anyone in the UK outside west Scotland) obsession of division by religion and we have a country of which we know little and understand less. At the moment the DUP are playing an important role in the Commons and the Assembly is not sitting but when we return to more normal times it is not hard to see NI drifting away from a country it has limited amounts in common with.

    Agree with most of what you say except the last sentence.
    I went to school in Northern Ireland although it was quite a few years ago, has it really changed that much that the Protestant majority would meekly acquiesce in a united Ireland?
    You are in a much better position to judge than me. I was rather focusing on the British viewpoint. The Northern Irish are not integrated into the UK in the way that Scotland and Wales are and have chosen to be different. I agree with Keiran that on this side of the water there is likely to be more than a fair amount of indifference. Whether this would last if, say, 200k NI protestants decided they were leaving and coming to the mainland who can tell?
    An interesting question is whether the Irish republic has the civil or military apparatus to control and maintain peace in Northern Ireland, particularly in the solidly Unionist areas that on these numbers would (still) wish 75%+ to stay in the UK.

    Not a problem I’d like to have as Taioseach.
    They dont

    the Garda struggle to control the drug gangs of North Dublin
    Logical fallacy. That is akin to saying, “they don’t, the Met struggle to control the drug gangs of East London.”
This discussion has been closed.