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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why a united Ireland post Brexit is a real possibility

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  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    TGOHF said:

    After Brexit is Irish reunification more or less likely than Sindy.

    Or is it always difficult to distinguish between 2 very small numbers ?

    Both will happen in the next 30 years.
  • Pulpstar said:

    currystar said:

    What an incompetent government

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470689

    all together now....

    #despitebrexit
    It's the main danger of Brexit to be honest, letting Corbyn (Or McD) get his hands on the levers of power and wrecking the generally good current economic work of the government.
    ONS says growth was due to the hot weather and World Cup so perhaps we should back the Minister of Sport for next Prime Minister.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    currystar said:

    What an incompetent government

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470689

    all together now....

    #despitebrexit
    Faisal Islam will be livid
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722
    Anyone come across Envision Adtrades? Someone’s offering me an investment opportunity, but as they’ve a main office in Kiev I’m very suspicious.
  • currystar said:

    What an incompetent government

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470689

    all together now....

    #despitebrexit

    *Cough*
    We haven’t left yet.
  • Wednesday. There are still some tens of thousands of postal votes which arrived at the last moment, many of them from abroad, to be counted. Traditionally, these votes tend to favour the Moderates (M) slightly (typically changing the result by 0.1-0.2%), so as last night's provisional result gives a centre-left lead of 0.3% and 1 seat, it could change the position.

    Apart from the psychological boost of one bloc coming first, it doesn't, of course, change the choices of government. The Sweden Democrats (SD) are complaining that no other party has made any contact with them, and it's clear that everyone else is unwilling to work with them. The four choices seem to be:

    1. Social Democrats (S) government with Greens and some small opposition parties. This would break open the blocs. S likes it, nobody else does, and there are moderately significsant policy differences on taxes and welfare.

    2. Continuation of the current government as a minority. The Moderates said they would strongly oppose that throughout the campaign, and it might push the centre-right into talking with the SD. Possibly a change in S leader to give a new PM might work, but this doesn't seem to be under discussion.

    3. M minority government. This would split the difference and might be more stable that it sounds - the Left and Greens are unlikely to vote on many issues with the SD. But here psychology matters - if M's bloc has fewest seats, it just looks wrong to form a government.

    4. Coalition of S,M and smaller centre-right parties plus maybe Greens. Grand coalition a la Germany, difficult as the blocs have been very fixed in opposing each other - and it might be a gift to SD and Left.

    New elections are unlikely - the basic arithmetic isn't going to change, and turnout at 86% means there isn't a pool of non-voters to change anything dramatically. Because policy differences aren't that huge, nobody is panicking, but it's acknowledged as a difficult puzzle.

    Good summary. I'd add that in terms of going for a minority government, the Moderates have one advantage which the Left don't have: they can play off the Sweden Democrats against the Left. They can do this by saying to the Left that they really don't want to do a deal with the Sweden Democrats, but might be forced to do so if the Left don't help them govern as a minority.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    Betfair have coughed up on the Swedish elections.

    OT a google image search on the Meeks avatar suggests as a visually similar image, one J Corbyn, Esq. (tbh I wanted to check my recollection that TSE's is Cromwell but clicked on the wrong one.)
    I never knew you could do an image search on google!

    That is, I new you could search for images based on a term, of course, but not search from an image. You learn something new every day! Thanks
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    This ss all of Theresa May's own making. She was under no obligation to appoint Boris Foreign Secretary. He was finished at that time and for reasons only known to herself she gave him a platform and made him important again. He's killing her government.

    She gave Boris enough rope to hang himself. He proved himself totally unsuitable for high office even before he was in the papers again this weekend for the wrong reasons. Why should he expect us to trust him, when his own wife doesn’t?


    I think that he has hanged himself, I don’t see that he has the numbers to challenge the PM in a vote of confidence. His recent actions blatantly undermining the PM haven’t endeared many MPs towards him as the Brexit crunch comes up, even before his recent extramarital dalliances.

    Thankfully the leadership selection system for the blue team is somewhat more robust than for the red team, anyone sent to the membership will have a reasonable support base among MPs unlike Corbyn.
    Boris is today trying to wow the Thatcherites in the Telegraph with a piece about scrapping HS2 and low tax and Laffer Curve.

    Think Redwood, with occasional joke.

    It really is remarkable how exercised the Right of the Conservative Party get by HS2.

    It’s a new railway line, not the march of the Red Army.
    You wouldn’t say that if you lived in the North.

    I’d much rather see the HS2 money spent on Northern intercity train routes which desperately need them.

    Northern improvements get cancelled if they go over budget by a few million but HS2 is fine when it overshoots by billions.
    I'd rather it be spent in the east, where it is desperately needed. And people in Devon and Cornwall want it spent there, where it is desperately needed. And people in Scotland there. And people in London there. Etc, etc.

    And in the meantime, the place it is really needed won't get it because of effing idiots screeching that they're not getting the money in their region. And nobody else will get the money, because if one area gets it everyone else will scream.

    Believe me, I would *love* to have a train service as good as the one you lambaste. Or indeed, any train service ...

    (BTW, are we sure the Northern electrification has been cancelled? It seems to be in a slightly odd state atm.)
    Electrification of rail is made obsolete by engines powered by hydrogen fuel cells.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited September 2018
    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    This one comes around every year or two, it’s never going to happen no matter how many people think it’s a brilliant idea. A nuclear/solar/oil powered desalination plant does the same job for at least one order of magnitude less cost.
    Personally, whatever the impressive engineering accomplishment, there is something grotesque about planning to tow an iceberg past a large number of impoverished water stressed African countries, so that Dubai can continue to consume the most water per capita globally and play golf in the dessert.
    Don’t disagree, although the biggest use for water in the UAE is agriculture rather than golf courses.

    There’s a good market here for ‘brown’ water, which is as you’d expect filtered waste water used for irrigation - make sure you have a shower afterwards if you get hit by sprinklers on the golf course.

    Clean desalinated water is bloody expensive, although not close to being as expensive as water from an iceberg towed from the Antarctic!
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    currystar said:

    What an incompetent government

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470689

    all together now....

    #despitebrexit

    *Cough*
    We haven’t left yet.
    What happened to the requirement for an emergency budget???
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "If Boris Johnson is the answer, what on earth is the question?"
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    edited September 2018
    TGOHF said:

    After Brexit is Irish reunification more or less likely than Sindy.

    Or is it always difficult to distinguish between 2 very small numbers ?

    You could probably chuck in odds for The Rangerrards ever winning the SP for some competition.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    OT

    Great day at the Oval yesterday, A proper pukka test match where patience pays dividends. Only dark spot was failure to close in the field soon enough at the end of the Indian Innings which probably cost another 25 runs or so.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    AndyJS said:

    "If Boris Johnson is the answer, what on earth is the question?"

    Which MP is most likely to be unfaithful to his wife?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    currystar said:

    currystar said:

    What an incompetent government

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470689

    all together now....

    #despitebrexit

    *Cough*
    We haven’t left yet.
    What happened to the requirement for an emergency budget???
    Mark Carney had it covered. Lowered rates, made it clear to the market that they were in safe hands.
  • currystar said:

    currystar said:

    What an incompetent government

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470689

    all together now....

    #despitebrexit

    *Cough*
    We haven’t left yet.
    What happened to the requirement for an emergency budget???
    George underestimated just how strong he had made the economy.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    AndyJS said:

    "If Boris Johnson is the answer, what on earth is the question?"

    Who will be the next leader of the Conservative Party - and Prime Minister?

    (just joshing....)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    currystar said:

    currystar said:

    What an incompetent government

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470689

    all together now....

    #despitebrexit

    *Cough*
    We haven’t left yet.
    What happened to the requirement for an emergency budget???
    Mr. Osborne lay down in a darkened room for a few months - and the need for it went away....
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited September 2018
    I think this is probably right, although in the current unstable landscape, it's hard to be sure:

    https://twitter.com/nickmacpherson2/status/1039075942235348992

    My wife made a very good point on this: there's not going to be any opportunity to 'vote against Chequers', because the vote will be on whatever deal is reached with the EU, which is not the same thing.

    As I've said before, are the ERG really going to go through the lobby as the LibDems, the SNP, Chukka Umunna and Keir Starmer to defeat it, and vice versa? The two sides would have had to have reached diametrically opposite conclusions as to what a defeat would lead to. How likely is that?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    edited September 2018

    TGOHF said:

    After Brexit is Irish reunification more or less likely than Sindy.

    Or is it always difficult to distinguish between 2 very small numbers ?

    Both will happen in the next 30 years.
    Why is Sindy inevitable? Quebec is still not independent. What did Canada do to prevent that inevitability?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Roger said:

    This ss all of Theresa May's own making. She was under no obligation to appoint Boris Foreign Secretary. He was finished at that time and for reasons only known to herself she gave him a platform and made him important again. He's killing her government.

    She needed Leavers in govt to get to this point.

    I also think the fact that Boris was FS blunts his "we have been betrayed shtick" a bit. If he does become leader, the chances of a Tory party split must be fairly high, and I'd expect defections.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722
    There is apparently a ‘crowdfunded’ appeal for funds to prosecute Johnson for “misconduct in Public Office’.

    They say ' Our case is focussed upon Mr Johnson MP’s claims that the UK ‘sends’, ‘spends’ or ‘pays’ £350 million a week on EU Membership. We have a QC’s legal opinion on side, the case research is done and we have a legal team ready to go.

    See 'Scientists for EU’
  • There is apparently a ‘crowdfunded’ appeal for funds to prosecute Johnson for “misconduct in Public Office’.

    They say ' Our case is focussed upon Mr Johnson MP’s claims that the UK ‘sends’, ‘spends’ or ‘pays’ £350 million a week on EU Membership. We have a QC’s legal opinion on side, the case research is done and we have a legal team ready to go.

    See 'Scientists for EU’

    Isn't there a tiny little problemette with that, namely that he didn't hold a public office at the time?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    edited September 2018
    rkrkrk said:

    Roger said:

    This ss all of Theresa May's own making. She was under no obligation to appoint Boris Foreign Secretary. He was finished at that time and for reasons only known to herself she gave him a platform and made him important again. He's killing her government.

    She needed Leavers in govt to get to this point.

    I also think the fact that Boris was FS blunts his "we have been betrayed shtick" a bit. If he does become leader, the chances of a Tory party split must be fairly high, and I'd expect defections.
    Defections to who? Neo-fascist UKIP? Corbyn's Labour?

    If someone has the ambition to lead the LibDems, maybe. But you'd be better off leaving politics....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722

    There is apparently a ‘crowdfunded’ appeal for funds to prosecute Johnson for “misconduct in Public Office’.

    They say ' Our case is focussed upon Mr Johnson MP’s claims that the UK ‘sends’, ‘spends’ or ‘pays’ £350 million a week on EU Membership. We have a QC’s legal opinion on side, the case research is done and we have a legal team ready to go.

    See 'Scientists for EU’

    Isn't there a tiny little problemette with that, namely that he didn't hold a public office at the time?
    MP?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    There is apparently a ‘crowdfunded’ appeal for funds to prosecute Johnson for “misconduct in Public Office’.

    They say ' Our case is focussed upon Mr Johnson MP’s claims that the UK ‘sends’, ‘spends’ or ‘pays’ £350 million a week on EU Membership. We have a QC’s legal opinion on side, the case research is done and we have a legal team ready to go.

    See 'Scientists for EU’

    To me, it would be better use of this crowdfunded money to buy something like a new MRI machine for Carlisle hospital considering how expensive this case will be!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited September 2018

    If it is reasonable that the Northern Irish can choose their future ...
    If it is reasonable that the Scottish can choose their future ...

    Then it should be reasonable that the English and Welsh can choose their future.

    The English (and Welsh which tends to be forgotten) have chosen Brexit. If the Northern Irish want to stay in the union that's their choice. If they want to leave that's their choice. I don't want to delegate my choice to either Brussels or Belfast.

    Hmm. Oxfordshire chose Remain. I don't want to delegate my choice to Clacton or Cleethorpes.

    Leave voters need Remain-supporting areas on board for their project to be a success. You can draw a map and compare the GDPs of Brexitania and Bremainia if you like, but you probably won't like the answer.
    Oxfordshire is part of England. As far as I know there is no significant Oxfordshire Independence Party winning seats at elections in the same way as the nationalist SNP, Sinn Fein or SDLP are or Brexit-supporting Conservatives, Labour or UKIP are.

    Remainia and Brexitania are not places, England is.
  • There is apparently a ‘crowdfunded’ appeal for funds to prosecute Johnson for “misconduct in Public Office’.

    They say ' Our case is focussed upon Mr Johnson MP’s claims that the UK ‘sends’, ‘spends’ or ‘pays’ £350 million a week on EU Membership. We have a QC’s legal opinion on side, the case research is done and we have a legal team ready to go.

    See 'Scientists for EU’

    Isn't there a tiny little problemette with that, namely that he didn't hold a public office at the time?
    MP?
    Not a public office, I believe.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    edited September 2018

    I think this is probably right, although in the current unstable landscape, it's hard to be sure:

    https://twitter.com/nickmacpherson2/status/1039075942235348992

    My wife made a very good point on this: there's not going to be any opportunity to 'vote against Chequers', because the vote will be on whatever deal is reached with the EU, which is not the same thing.

    As I've said before, are the ERG really going to go through the lobby as the LibDems, the SNP, Chukka Umunna and Keir Starmer to defeat it, and vice versa? The two sides would have had to have reached diametrically opposite conclusions as to what a defeat would lead to. How likely is that?

    Plus, the Tory high command and Whips will throw everything they can lay their hands on to get the votes through the lobby. This will be an operation the like of which we haven't seen in some time.

    So if any of the ERG still dream of a career or want an ounce of help from CCHQ next GE, then will have to be mighty sure that May falls if they vote against the deal.

    Plus - how many of them have skeletons in those cupboards? If the number really is 50-80, then a few at least.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,881
    Nigelb said:



    It doesn't get much more remote than RAF Mount Pleasant (clearly a Tory project, looking at its motto...).
    A floating slab of Pykrete sounds almost inviting in comparison, given it would likely be a few thousand miles nearer home.

    Getting them to deploy to the "Wales of the Southern Hemisphere" has never traditionally been a problem due to a) the kudos of having one's wings on the 1435 crew room wall and b) the legendary promiscuity of the gap toothed locals (all genders and orientations). b) also applies to RAF Finningley.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722

    There is apparently a ‘crowdfunded’ appeal for funds to prosecute Johnson for “misconduct in Public Office’.

    They say ' Our case is focussed upon Mr Johnson MP’s claims that the UK ‘sends’, ‘spends’ or ‘pays’ £350 million a week on EU Membership. We have a QC’s legal opinion on side, the case research is done and we have a legal team ready to go.

    See 'Scientists for EU’

    Isn't there a tiny little problemette with that, namely that he didn't hold a public office at the time?
    MP?
    Not a public office, I believe.
    They’ve got a named QC on side. Not that that’s a guarantee of success, obviously. Tempted to contribute; even if Boris won the case could be damaging.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    I’d like one of the serious political parties to reorganise local government (again) and devolve some powers to the English historic counties, or as close as possible. Places with a proper identity. It’s the only way the union is going to work long term in my opinion.

    You’d think it would be in the Tory party interest considering how they dominate the shires and also seem to be able to do well in places like the West Midlands and the Tees Valley.
  • Mr. Borough, that assumes May is PM at the next election. She may well not be, and that will dilute the potency of the poison with which CCHQ threatens those who contemplate rebellion.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722
    'Alastair Cook has become only the second player to score 50+ in both innings of both his debut and his final Test match’. Quote from the Beeb.
  • There is apparently a ‘crowdfunded’ appeal for funds to prosecute Johnson for “misconduct in Public Office’.

    They say ' Our case is focussed upon Mr Johnson MP’s claims that the UK ‘sends’, ‘spends’ or ‘pays’ £350 million a week on EU Membership. We have a QC’s legal opinion on side, the case research is done and we have a legal team ready to go.

    See 'Scientists for EU’

    Isn't there a tiny little problemette with that, namely that he didn't hold a public office at the time?
    MP?
    Not a public office, I believe.
    They’ve got a named QC on side. Not that that’s a guarantee of success, obviously. Tempted to contribute; even if Boris won the case could be damaging.
    That means nothing. Jolyon Maugham QC could be on their side for all it means.
  • 'Alastair Cook has become only the second player to score 50+ in both innings of both his debut and his final Test match’. Quote from the Beeb.

    Without wanting to jynx him I'm surprised nobody has mentioned the fact he could overtake Sangakkara to be the 5th highest career run scorer.
  • Really interesting thread on Swede result and SD:

    https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/1038913241446080514
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited September 2018

    There is apparently a ‘crowdfunded’ appeal for funds to prosecute Johnson for “misconduct in Public Office’.

    They say ' Our case is focussed upon Mr Johnson MP’s claims that the UK ‘sends’, ‘spends’ or ‘pays’ £350 million a week on EU Membership. We have a QC’s legal opinion on side, the case research is done and we have a legal team ready to go.

    See 'Scientists for EU’

    Isn't there a tiny little problemette with that, namely that he didn't hold a public office at the time?
    MP?
    Not a public office, I believe.
    They’ve got a named QC on side. Not that that’s a guarantee of success, obviously. Tempted to contribute; even if Boris won the case could be damaging.
    Even if the court held that an MP does hold public office (for which there doesn't seem to be a precedent), the offence could only have occurred if there was misconduct in his role as an MP. The claim was made in his role as a campaigner for the Leave campaign.

    See here:

    https://www.cps.gov.uk/legal-guidance/misconduct-public-office
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:



    It doesn't get much more remote than RAF Mount Pleasant (clearly a Tory project, looking at its motto...).
    A floating slab of Pykrete sounds almost inviting in comparison, given it would likely be a few thousand miles nearer home.

    Getting them to deploy to the "Wales of the Southern Hemisphere" has never traditionally been a problem due to a) the kudos of having one's wings on the 1435 crew room wall and b) the legendary promiscuity of the gap toothed locals (all genders and orientations). b) also applies to RAF Finningley.
    The gap toothed look has been thought a sign of promiscuity for centuries. Chaucer's Wife of Bath was gap toothed....
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    'Alastair Cook has become only the second player to score 50+ in both innings of both his debut and his final Test match’. Quote from the Beeb.

    Without wanting to jynx him I'm surprised nobody has mentioned the fact he could overtake Sangakkara to be the 5th highest career run scorer.
    18 to go? A long way still.

    Interesting that in reaching his 50 he secured a career average of >45, but only one other batsman who scored over 10,000 career runs averaged below 50 (and still in the high 49s).

    I hadn't realised quite how good Sangakkara was until I looked at those figures - still (just) ahead of Cook from 56 fewer innings.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    currystar said:

    What an incompetent government

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470689

    The government does have a pretty good story to tell but the trouble is May and Hammond are totally unsuited to tell it as they both seem to have a permanent air of a funeral directors about them...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722

    There is apparently a ‘crowdfunded’ appeal for funds to prosecute Johnson for “misconduct in Public Office’.

    They say ' Our case is focussed upon Mr Johnson MP’s claims that the UK ‘sends’, ‘spends’ or ‘pays’ £350 million a week on EU Membership. We have a QC’s legal opinion on side, the case research is done and we have a legal team ready to go.

    See 'Scientists for EU’

    Isn't there a tiny little problemette with that, namely that he didn't hold a public office at the time?
    MP?
    Not a public office, I believe.
    They’ve got a named QC on side. Not that that’s a guarantee of success, obviously. Tempted to contribute; even if Boris won the case could be damaging.
    Even if the court held that an MP does hold public office (for which there doesn't seem to be a precedent), the offence could only have occurred if there was misconduct in his role as an MP. The claim was made in his role as a campaigner for the Leave campaign.

    See here:

    https://www.cps.gov.uk/legal-guidance/misconduct-public-office
    Logic says you are right, of course. However, they seem to have the bit between their teeth.
  • Polruan said:

    'Alastair Cook has become only the second player to score 50+ in both innings of both his debut and his final Test match’. Quote from the Beeb.

    Without wanting to jynx him I'm surprised nobody has mentioned the fact he could overtake Sangakkara to be the 5th highest career run scorer.
    18 to go? A long way still.

    Interesting that in reaching his 50 he secured a career average of >45, but only one other batsman who scored over 10,000 career runs averaged below 50 (and still in the high 49s).

    I hadn't realised quite how good Sangakkara was until I looked at those figures - still (just) ahead of Cook from 56 fewer innings.
    Indeed as a modern opening batsman Cook has had a lot of innings.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    edited September 2018

    I’d like one of the serious political parties to reorganise local government (again) and devolve some powers to the English historic counties, or as close as possible. Places with a proper identity. It’s the only way the union is going to work long term in my opinion.

    You’d think it would be in the Tory party interest considering how they dominate the shires and also seem to be able to do well in places like the West Midlands and the Tees Valley.

    This is one of the depressing aspects of this government. England is crying out for consolidated, simplified and more powerful local government, but rather than doing as you suggest, the government is rolling out assymetric devolution only to those parts of the country which seldom vote Tory (Cambridge and Peterborough excepted).

    The time has come to scrap district councils altogether. Let’s turn all remaining 2-tier counties into unitary authorities. Very few people will notice beyond the newly unemployed district councillors.

    The only problem is that most of them are Tory.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722

    Polruan said:

    'Alastair Cook has become only the second player to score 50+ in both innings of both his debut and his final Test match’. Quote from the Beeb.

    Without wanting to jynx him I'm surprised nobody has mentioned the fact he could overtake Sangakkara to be the 5th highest career run scorer.
    18 to go? A long way still.

    Interesting that in reaching his 50 he secured a career average of >45, but only one other batsman who scored over 10,000 career runs averaged below 50 (and still in the high 49s).

    I hadn't realised quite how good Sangakkara was until I looked at those figures - still (just) ahead of Cook from 56 fewer innings.
    Indeed as a modern opening batsman Cook has had a lot of innings.
    I can (just) recall Don Bradman being out for a duck in his final innings, leaving him with a Test average of fractionally under 100.
  • I think this is probably right, although in the current unstable landscape, it's hard to be sure:

    https://twitter.com/nickmacpherson2/status/1039075942235348992

    My wife made a very good point on this: there's not going to be any opportunity to 'vote against Chequers', because the vote will be on whatever deal is reached with the EU, which is not the same thing.

    As I've said before, are the ERG really going to go through the lobby as the LibDems, the SNP, Chukka Umunna and Keir Starmer to defeat it, and vice versa? The two sides would have had to have reached diametrically opposite conclusions as to what a defeat would lead to. How likely is that?

    Plus, the Tory high command and Whips will throw everything they can lay their hands on to get the votes through the lobby. This will be an operation the like of which we haven't seen in some time.

    So if any of the ERG still dream of a career or want an ounce of help from CCHQ next GE, then will have to be mighty sure that May falls if they vote against the deal.

    Plus - how many of them have skeletons in those cupboards? If the number really is 50-80, then a few at least.
    Making the continued incorrect assumption that the EU will accept Chequers, or something very like it. They won’t. The best May will get is a deal-lite, where we give away the NI backstop and the money in return for a non binding pile of fudge. That will never get through the Commons. It is indefensible and everyone will know it.

    This latest ‘view’ is just No 10 spin, trying to pretend there are less rebels than there really are. They have been running this line via their favoured sources for a few days. Fooling nobody.

    The best chance May has now is for Barnier to steer her towards CETA.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    I think this is probably right, although in the current unstable landscape, it's hard to be sure:

    https://twitter.com/nickmacpherson2/status/1039075942235348992

    My wife made a very good point on this: there's not going to be any opportunity to 'vote against Chequers', because the vote will be on whatever deal is reached with the EU, which is not the same thing.

    As I've said before, are the ERG really going to go through the lobby as the LibDems, the SNP, Chukka Umunna and Keir Starmer to defeat it, and vice versa? The two sides would have had to have reached diametrically opposite conclusions as to what a defeat would lead to. How likely is that?

    Plus, the Tory high command and Whips will throw everything they can lay their hands on to get the votes through the lobby. This will be an operation the like of which we haven't seen in some time.

    So if any of the ERG still dream of a career or want an ounce of help from CCHQ next GE, then will have to be mighty sure that May falls if they vote against the deal.

    Plus - how many of them have skeletons in those cupboards? If the number really is 50-80, then a few at least.
    Making the continued incorrect assumption that the EU will accept Chequers, or something very like it. They won’t. The best May will get is a deal-lite, where we give away the NI backstop and the money in return for a non binding pile of fudge. That will never get through the Commons. It is indefensible and everyone will know it.

    This latest ‘view’ is just No 10 spin, trying to pretend there are less rebels than there really are. They have been running this line via their favoured sources for a few days. Fooling nobody.

    The best chance May has now is for Barnier to steer her towards CETA.
    That assumes the EU wants CETA - and I don't see any evidence that they do...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,088
    Well I am leaving the Alps after a few days walking, but no urge to take any reckless gambles, political or otherwise, came over me.
  • There is apparently a ‘crowdfunded’ appeal for funds to prosecute Johnson for “misconduct in Public Office’.

    They say ' Our case is focussed upon Mr Johnson MP’s claims that the UK ‘sends’, ‘spends’ or ‘pays’ £350 million a week on EU Membership. We have a QC’s legal opinion on side, the case research is done and we have a legal team ready to go.

    See 'Scientists for EU’

    Isn't there a tiny little problemette with that, namely that he didn't hold a public office at the time?
    Apart from that, the tiny little problemette is that it is a totally laugable legal case (even if he was a Minister at the time) that will get kicked out of Court in the first hearing. Proving the tort of misconduct is almost impossible even when it is a real case, not a vendetta.
  • RoyalBlue said:

    I’d like one of the serious political parties to reorganise local government (again) and devolve some powers to the English historic counties, or as close as possible. Places with a proper identity. It’s the only way the union is going to work long term in my opinion.

    You’d think it would be in the Tory party interest considering how they dominate the shires and also seem to be able to do well in places like the West Midlands and the Tees Valley.

    This is one of the depressing aspects of this government. England is crying out for consolidated, simplified and more powerful local government, but rather than doing as you suggest, the government is rolling out assymetric devolution only to those parts of the country which seldom vote Tory (Cambridge and Peterborough excepted).

    The time has come to scrap district councils altogether. Let’s turn all remaining 2-tier counties into unitary authorities. Very few people will notice beyond the newly unemployed district councillors.

    The only problem is that most of them are Tory.
    Some unitary authorities are based on the District council.
  • eek said:

    I think this is probably right, although in the current unstable landscape, it's hard to be sure:

    https://twitter.com/nickmacpherson2/status/1039075942235348992

    My wife made a very good point on this: there's not going to be any opportunity to 'vote against Chequers', because the vote will be on whatever deal is reached with the EU, which is not the same thing.

    As I've said before, are the ERG really going to go through the lobby as the LibDems, the SNP, Chukka Umunna and Keir Starmer to defeat it, and vice versa? The two sides would have had to have reached diametrically opposite conclusions as to what a defeat would lead to. How likely is that?

    Plus, the Tory high command and Whips will throw everything they can lay their hands on to get the votes through the lobby. This will be an operation the like of which we haven't seen in some time.

    So if any of the ERG still dream of a career or want an ounce of help from CCHQ next GE, then will have to be mighty sure that May falls if they vote against the deal.

    Plus - how many of them have skeletons in those cupboards? If the number really is 50-80, then a few at least.
    Making the continued incorrect assumption that the EU will accept Chequers, or something very like it. They won’t. The best May will get is a deal-lite, where we give away the NI backstop and the money in return for a non binding pile of fudge. That will never get through the Commons. It is indefensible and everyone will know it.

    This latest ‘view’ is just No 10 spin, trying to pretend there are less rebels than there really are. They have been running this line via their favoured sources for a few days. Fooling nobody.

    The best chance May has now is for Barnier to steer her towards CETA.
    That assumes the EU wants CETA - and I don't see any evidence that they do...
    Indeed, the EU wants BINO.
  • IanB2 said:

    Well I am leaving the Alps after a few days walking, but no urge to take any reckless gambles, political or otherwise, came over me.


    You must be middle of the road, which can be reckless..
  • I think this is probably right, although in the current unstable landscape, it's hard to be sure:

    https://twitter.com/nickmacpherson2/status/1039075942235348992

    My wife made a very good point on this: there's not going to be any opportunity to 'vote against Chequers', because the vote will be on whatever deal is reached with the EU, which is not the same thing.

    As I've said before, are the ERG really going to go through the lobby as the LibDems, the SNP, Chukka Umunna and Keir Starmer to defeat it, and vice versa? The two sides would have had to have reached diametrically opposite conclusions as to what a defeat would lead to. How likely is that?

    Plus, the Tory high command and Whips will throw everything they can lay their hands on to get the votes through the lobby. This will be an operation the like of which we haven't seen in some time.

    So if any of the ERG still dream of a career or want an ounce of help from CCHQ next GE, then will have to be mighty sure that May falls if they vote against the deal.

    Plus - how many of them have skeletons in those cupboards? If the number really is 50-80, then a few at least.
    Making the continued incorrect assumption that the EU will accept Chequers, or something very like it. They won’t. The best May will get is a deal-lite, where we give away the NI backstop and the money in return for a non binding pile of fudge. That will never get through the Commons. It is indefensible and everyone will know it.

    This latest ‘view’ is just No 10 spin, trying to pretend there are less rebels than there really are. They have been running this line via their favoured sources for a few days. Fooling nobody.

    The best chance May has now is for Barnier to steer her towards CETA.
    The ERG are all huff and puff. If they vote down TM deal they run the real risk of a second referendum and the Country voting to remain, and how ironic that would be
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    I think this is probably right, although in the current unstable landscape, it's hard to be sure:

    https://twitter.com/nickmacpherson2/status/1039075942235348992

    My wife made a very good point on this: there's not going to be any opportunity to 'vote against Chequers', because the vote will be on whatever deal is reached with the EU, which is not the same thing.

    As I've said before, are the ERG really going to go through the lobby as the LibDems, the SNP, Chukka Umunna and Keir Starmer to defeat it, and vice versa? The two sides would have had to have reached diametrically opposite conclusions as to what a defeat would lead to. How likely is that?

    Plus, the Tory high command and Whips will throw everything they can lay their hands on to get the votes through the lobby. This will be an operation the like of which we haven't seen in some time.

    So if any of the ERG still dream of a career or want an ounce of help from CCHQ next GE, then will have to be mighty sure that May falls if they vote against the deal.

    Plus - how many of them have skeletons in those cupboards? If the number really is 50-80, then a few at least.
    Making the continued incorrect assumption that the EU will accept Chequers, or something very like it. They won’t. The best May will get is a deal-lite, where we give away the NI backstop and the money in return for a non binding pile of fudge. That will never get through the Commons. It is indefensible and everyone will know it.

    This latest ‘view’ is just No 10 spin, trying to pretend there are less rebels than there really are. They have been running this line via their favoured sources for a few days. Fooling nobody.

    The best chance May has now is for Barnier to steer her towards CETA.
    I was with you until the last para. CETA doesn't have more Commons support than "deal-lite" - the only argument that it does relies on the idea that MPs will vote for it to avoid something worse despite thinking it's a bad idea, which is a dangerous assumption.
  • Scott_P said:
    Irexit could solve the NI/Ireland border problem for the UK and Ireland.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    TOPPING said:

    currystar said:

    currystar said:

    What an incompetent government

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470689

    all together now....

    #despitebrexit

    *Cough*
    We haven’t left yet.
    What happened to the requirement for an emergency budget???
    Mark Carney had it covered. Lowered rates, made it clear to the market that they were in safe hands.
    It's really laughable. It will be the end of the world, massive cuts, unemployment, gloom and disaster. Alternatively we could cut interest rates by 0.25%.
  • Scott_P said:
    Irexit could solve the NI/Ireland border problem for the UK and Ireland.
    Yes but it's not going to happen. The Irish are an independent nation and can do as they choose - re-aligning to us would be too much even if it made sense. The EU would have to become really painful for them before they wanted to leave.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    .
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:



    It doesn't get much more remote than RAF Mount Pleasant (clearly a Tory project, looking at its motto...).
    A floating slab of Pykrete sounds almost inviting in comparison, given it would likely be a few thousand miles nearer home.

    Getting them to deploy to the "Wales of the Southern Hemisphere" has never traditionally been a problem due to a) the kudos of having one's wings on the 1435 crew room wall and b) the legendary promiscuity of the gap toothed locals (all genders and orientations). b) also applies to RAF Finningley.
    Which might suggest a simple and effective solution to the general problem of overseas deployment ?

    (I had no idea that Falklands sheep were gap toothed - though they do have exceptionally white, lustrous fleeces....)
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    RoyalBlue said:

    I’d like one of the serious political parties to reorganise local government (again) and devolve some powers to the English historic counties, or as close as possible. Places with a proper identity. It’s the only way the union is going to work long term in my opinion.

    You’d think it would be in the Tory party interest considering how they dominate the shires and also seem to be able to do well in places like the West Midlands and the Tees Valley.

    This is one of the depressing aspects of this government. England is crying out for consolidated, simplified and more powerful local government, but rather than doing as you suggest, the government is rolling out assymetric devolution only to those parts of the country which seldom vote Tory (Cambridge and Peterborough excepted).

    The time has come to scrap district councils altogether. Let’s turn all remaining 2-tier counties into unitary authorities. Very few people will notice beyond the newly unemployed district councillors.

    The only problem is that most of them are Tory.
    Some unitary authorities are based on the District council.
    Indeed, but why should a party that is stronger in rural areas consent to the secession of county towns from their respective counties?

    Far too many Tories are not good at power politics. They could learn a lot from the Left.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    currystar said:

    currystar said:

    What an incompetent government

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470689

    all together now....

    #despitebrexit

    *Cough*
    We haven’t left yet.
    What happened to the requirement for an emergency budget???
    Mark Carney had it covered. Lowered rates, made it clear to the market that they were in safe hands.
    It's really laughable. It will be the end of the world, massive cuts, unemployment, gloom and disaster. Alternatively we could cut interest rates by 0.25%.
    He stood ready. He judged that that was what required at that point. Turns out the market was reassured by the planning he had performed. And as we all know we did suffer an immediate and tangible hit to the exchange rate.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577

    Polruan said:

    'Alastair Cook has become only the second player to score 50+ in both innings of both his debut and his final Test match’. Quote from the Beeb.

    Without wanting to jynx him I'm surprised nobody has mentioned the fact he could overtake Sangakkara to be the 5th highest career run scorer.
    18 to go? A long way still.

    Interesting that in reaching his 50 he secured a career average of >45, but only one other batsman who scored over 10,000 career runs averaged below 50 (and still in the high 49s).

    I hadn't realised quite how good Sangakkara was until I looked at those figures - still (just) ahead of Cook from 56 fewer innings.
    Indeed as a modern opening batsman Cook has had a lot of innings.
    I can (just) recall Don Bradman being out for a duck in his final innings, leaving him with a Test average of fractionally under 100.
    There's a reason the Australian Broadcasting Corporation’s mailing address in every state capital in Australia is Post Box number 9994.
  • 3 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece entitled 'Why you should be wary of hypothetical polling'. It explains how 'people are generally bad' at 'explaining how they decide their votes' and 'entertaining counterfactuals'. This fits with the generally accepted principles of political polling (e.g. 'polls asking about how people would vote in hypothetical situations aren’t particularly useful', Anthony Wells)

    10 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece explaining how a hypothetical poll 'clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland', and supports it with a second hypothetical poll showing 'more than one in four in Northern Ireland claiming that they would at least consider abandoning support for the Union in favour of a united Ireland post Brexit'.
  • TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    currystar said:

    currystar said:

    What an incompetent government

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470689

    all together now....

    #despitebrexit

    *Cough*
    We haven’t left yet.
    What happened to the requirement for an emergency budget???
    Mark Carney had it covered. Lowered rates, made it clear to the market that they were in safe hands.
    It's really laughable. It will be the end of the world, massive cuts, unemployment, gloom and disaster. Alternatively we could cut interest rates by 0.25%.
    He stood ready. He judged that all that was what required at that point. Turns out the market was reassured by the planning he had performed.
    Added a missing word for you.

    So planning a 0.25% cut was all that was required, not doom, gloom or an emergency budget. Just a 0.25% cut.
  • I think this is probably right, although in the current unstable landscape, it's hard to be sure:

    https://twitter.com/nickmacpherson2/status/1039075942235348992

    My wife made a very good point on this: there's not going to be any opportunity to 'vote against Chequers', because the vote will be on whatever deal is reached with the EU, which is not the same thing.

    As I've said before, are the ERG really going to go through the lobby as the LibDems, the SNP, Chukka Umunna and Keir Starmer to defeat it, and vice versa? The two sides would have had to have reached diametrically opposite conclusions as to what a defeat would lead to. How likely is that?

    Plus, the Tory high command and Whips will throw everything they can lay their hands on to get the votes through the lobby. This will be an operation the like of which we haven't seen in some time.

    So if any of the ERG still dream of a career or want an ounce of help from CCHQ next GE, then will have to be mighty sure that May falls if they vote against the deal.

    Plus - how many of them have skeletons in those cupboards? If the number really is 50-80, then a few at least.
    Making the continued incorrect assumption that the EU will accept Chequers, or something very like it. They won’t. The best May will get is a deal-lite, where we give away the NI backstop and the money in return for a non binding pile of fudge. That will never get through the Commons. It is indefensible and everyone will know it.

    This latest ‘view’ is just No 10 spin, trying to pretend there are less rebels than there really are. They have been running this line via their favoured sources for a few days. Fooling nobody.

    The best chance May has now is for Barnier to steer her towards CETA.
    The ERG are all huff and puff. If they vote down TM deal they run the real risk of a second referendum and the Country voting to remain, and how ironic that would be
    Bring it on!
  • Scott_P said:
    Irexit could solve the NI/Ireland border problem for the UK and Ireland.
    Yes but it's not going to happen. The Irish are an independent nation and can do as they choose - re-aligning to us would be too much even if it made sense. The EU would have to become really painful for them before they wanted to leave.
    Yes, what people (deliberately) ignore when they suggest Irexit as a solution is that it would still require alignment between Ireland and the UK, just that the direction of alignment would be reversed.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Scott_P said:
    Irexit could solve the NI/Ireland border problem for the UK and Ireland.
    Yes but it's not going to happen. The Irish are an independent nation and can do as they choose - re-aligning to us would be too much even if it made sense. The EU would have to become really painful for them before they wanted to leave.
    When the EU come for Ireland’s corporation tax rate - and it’s a question of when rather than if - then leaving the may look more attractive to the Irish. It’s a long way off at the moment though.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    3 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece entitled 'Why you should be wary of hypothetical polling'. It explains how 'people are generally bad' at 'explaining how they decide their votes' and 'entertaining counterfactuals'. This fits with the generally accepted principles of political polling (e.g. 'polls asking about how people would vote in hypothetical situations aren’t particularly useful', Anthony Wells)

    10 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece explaining how a hypothetical poll 'clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland', and supports it with a second hypothetical poll showing 'more than one in four in Northern Ireland claiming that they would at least consider abandoning support for the Union in favour of a united Ireland post Brexit'.

    :D
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949

    I think this is probably right, although in the current unstable landscape, it's hard to be sure:

    https://twitter.com/nickmacpherson2/status/1039075942235348992

    My wife made a very good point on this: there's not going to be any opportunity to 'vote against Chequers', because the vote will be on whatever deal is reached with the EU, which is not the same thing.

    As I've said before, are the ERG really going to go through the lobby as the LibDems, the SNP, Chukka Umunna and Keir Starmer to defeat it, and vice versa? The two sides would have had to have reached diametrically opposite conclusions as to what a defeat would lead to. How likely is that?

    I don't know, but the 'edges' of the Commons voting together isn't unprecedented. The (union-backing) left and christian right have stopped significant reforms on Sunday Trading Hours for decades.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    50 for Root. Don’t dare say anything else for fear of jinxing this partnership.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    If Keiran is reading below the line, he'll enjoy seeing this tweet:

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1038720777137389568

    The picture of Boris with 'PM' above his head would be less disturbing if the same electorate hadn't by a large majority voted Brexit. The days of trusting in democracy to make reasonable decisions went with Trump
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    currystar said:

    currystar said:

    What an incompetent government

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470689

    all together now....

    #despitebrexit

    *Cough*
    We haven’t left yet.
    What happened to the requirement for an emergency budget???
    Mark Carney had it covered. Lowered rates, made it clear to the market that they were in safe hands.
    It's really laughable. It will be the end of the world, massive cuts, unemployment, gloom and disaster. Alternatively we could cut interest rates by 0.25%.
    He stood ready. He judged that that was what required at that point. Turns out the market was reassured by the planning he had performed. And as we all know we did suffer an immediate and tangible hit to the exchange rate.
    Not at all Mr T

    the forecasts of gloom were only Osborne admitting thats what would happen if he stayed CoE. He just wasnt up to the job,

    A change of chancellor and the gloom diappears, nothing to do with Carney
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited September 2018
    Test Match Special don't understand why people are applauding mistakenly thinking it was for the century partnership - it was for Cook overtaking Sangakkara. How've they still not figured it out?

    Nevermind just after I wrote that they've said he needs 76 to do so, I thought he needed 72.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,088
    Quincel said:

    I think this is probably right, although in the current unstable landscape, it's hard to be sure:

    https://twitter.com/nickmacpherson2/status/1039075942235348992

    My wife made a very good point on this: there's not going to be any opportunity to 'vote against Chequers', because the vote will be on whatever deal is reached with the EU, which is not the same thing.

    As I've said before, are the ERG really going to go through the lobby as the LibDems, the SNP, Chukka Umunna and Keir Starmer to defeat it, and vice versa? The two sides would have had to have reached diametrically opposite conclusions as to what a defeat would lead to. How likely is that?

    I don't know, but the 'edges' of the Commons voting together isn't unprecedented. The (union-backing) left and christian right have stopped significant reforms on Sunday Trading Hours for decades.
    Wanting the same outcome for different reasons isn't the same.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    Test Match Special don't understand why people are applauding mistakenly thinking it was for the century partnership - it was for Cook overtaking Sangakkara. How've they still not figured it out?

    Don't think so - he needs 75 to equal/76 to exceed and is on 74 now
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    It looks as the The Sun Ain't Gonna Shine Anymore, in Wisconsin...

    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/10/scott-walker-reelection-wisconsin-governor-813442
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    currystar said:

    currystar said:

    What an incompetent government

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470689

    all together now....

    #despitebrexit

    *Cough*
    We haven’t left yet.
    What happened to the requirement for an emergency budget???
    Mark Carney had it covered. Lowered rates, made it clear to the market that they were in safe hands.
    It's really laughable. It will be the end of the world, massive cuts, unemployment, gloom and disaster. Alternatively we could cut interest rates by 0.25%.
    He stood ready. He judged that that was what required at that point. Turns out the market was reassured by the planning he had performed. And as we all know we did suffer an immediate and tangible hit to the exchange rate.
    Not at all Mr T

    the forecasts of gloom were only Osborne admitting thats what would happen if he stayed CoE. He just wasnt up to the job,

    A change of chancellor and the gloom diappears, nothing to do with Carney
    "Philip Hammond" and "gloom disappearing" aren't easy concepts to reconcile.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545
    I see Steve Baker is out and about saying that Chequers will split the Tory party. Seems an odd argument to make in public to me - it's saying that the country can go stuff itself as long as the Tory party holds together. Seems very nakedly political and partisan.

    The ERG also seem to have wimped out of putting any alternative forward - given the track record of anyone who tries to put a serious plan forward that's understandable, but all together they are looking like a bit of a rabble to me.

    Are the Brexiteers losing their touch?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Our balance of payments deficit in July was just £111m. Surely a bit of a freak result but just possibly an indication of an improving trend. A much better and ultimately more important number than the GDP figure.

    I still expect upward revisals to Q1 and Q2. The growth figures are not compatible with the tax returns or the employment stats.
  • tpfkar said:

    I see Steve Baker is out and about saying that Chequers will split the Tory party. Seems an odd argument to make in public to me - it's saying that the country can go stuff itself as long as the Tory party holds together. Seems very nakedly political and partisan.

    The ERG also seem to have wimped out of putting any alternative forward - given the track record of anyone who tries to put a serious plan forward that's understandable, but all together they are looking like a bit of a rabble to me.

    Are the Brexiteers losing their touch?

    Yes
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    tpfkar said:

    I see Steve Baker is out and about saying that Chequers will split the Tory party. Seems an odd argument to make in public to me - it's saying that the country can go stuff itself as long as the Tory party holds together. Seems very nakedly political and partisan.

    The ERG also seem to have wimped out of putting any alternative forward - given the track record of anyone who tries to put a serious plan forward that's understandable, but all together they are looking like a bit of a rabble to me.

    Are the Brexiteers losing their touch?

    It's interesting that the "rabble" are the one's that are standing up for the Conservative manifesto commitments and saying all the things Theresa May used to say before she sold Brexit down the river....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722
    Cooks gone past Sangakarra now!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    tpfkar said:

    Are the Brexiteers losing their touch?

    They never had the touch.

    Farage and his racist posters helped them win the campaign. They have no clue what to do next
  • GIN1138 said:

    tpfkar said:

    I see Steve Baker is out and about saying that Chequers will split the Tory party. Seems an odd argument to make in public to me - it's saying that the country can go stuff itself as long as the Tory party holds together. Seems very nakedly political and partisan.

    The ERG also seem to have wimped out of putting any alternative forward - given the track record of anyone who tries to put a serious plan forward that's understandable, but all together they are looking like a bit of a rabble to me.

    Are the Brexiteers losing their touch?

    It's interesting that the "rabble" are the one's that are standing up for the Conservative manifesto commitments and saying all the things Theresa May used to say before she sold Brexit down the river....
    What part of the manifesto has TM broken
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    GIN1138 said:

    tpfkar said:

    I see Steve Baker is out and about saying that Chequers will split the Tory party. Seems an odd argument to make in public to me - it's saying that the country can go stuff itself as long as the Tory party holds together. Seems very nakedly political and partisan.

    The ERG also seem to have wimped out of putting any alternative forward - given the track record of anyone who tries to put a serious plan forward that's understandable, but all together they are looking like a bit of a rabble to me.

    Are the Brexiteers losing their touch?

    It's interesting that the "rabble" are the one's that are standing up for the Conservative manifesto commitments and saying all the things Theresa May used to say before she sold Brexit down the river....
    This is the disastrous manifesto credited with losing the party's majority we're talking about?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    DavidL said:

    Our balance of payments deficit in July was just £111m. Surely a bit of a freak result but just possibly an indication of an improving trend. A much better and ultimately more important number than the GDP figure.

    I still expect upward revisals to Q1 and Q2. The growth figures are not compatible with the tax returns or the employment stats.

    The economy is doing so well people will soon feel safe enough to try a Corbyn government and stick it to Theresa The Deceiver. :D
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    Root looking to accelerate.
    Guessing Cook will continue to plod along.
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,501
    edited September 2018
    Polruan said:


    I was with you until the last para. CETA doesn't have more Commons support than "deal-lite" - the only argument that it does relies on the idea that MPs will vote for it to avoid something worse despite thinking it's a bad idea, which is a dangerous assumption.

    The reality is that the politicians don't want to make a leap into the unknown because they are scared we will blame them for it. The immediate pain versus possible future benefit argument is paralysing them.

    The whole Brexit / Corbyn / Sindy turbulence seems symptomatic that a majority of people are unsatisfied with society as it is today. Brexit / Sindy speaks of underlying desire for decisions to be made closer to people. Brexit / Corbyn speaks of resentment at decisions leaving segments of society behind. These pressures will only get worse as demographic and technological changes grow.

    I had hoped that Brexit might allow us to flow power back to lower level - from the EU back to the devolved governments and regions - and allow us to freedom to grow our economy much faster. A Singapore future would have been great. However it is clear that our leaders want to spend the time point scoring and trying to hold on to what little they have. As a society that now consumes wealth faster than we create it, we are on an irreversible downwards trend until someone with a strong vision comes along and imposes it through necessity. We need a Maggie.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274

    I think this is probably right, although in the current unstable landscape, it's hard to be sure:

    https://twitter.com/nickmacpherson2/status/1039075942235348992

    My wife made a very good point on this: there's not going to be any opportunity to 'vote against Chequers', because the vote will be on whatever deal is reached with the EU, which is not the same thing.

    As I've said before, are the ERG really going to go through the lobby as the LibDems, the SNP, Chukka Umunna and Keir Starmer to defeat it, and vice versa? The two sides would have had to have reached diametrically opposite conclusions as to what a defeat would lead to. How likely is that?

    Plus, the Tory high command and Whips will throw everything they can lay their hands on to get the votes through the lobby. This will be an operation the like of which we haven't seen in some time.

    So if any of the ERG still dream of a career or want an ounce of help from CCHQ next GE, then will have to be mighty sure that May falls if they vote against the deal.

    Plus - how many of them have skeletons in those cupboards? If the number really is 50-80, then a few at least.
    Making the continued incorrect assumption that the EU will accept Chequers, or something very like it. They won’t. The best May will get is a deal-lite, where we give away the NI backstop and the money in return for a non binding pile of fudge. That will never get through the Commons. It is indefensible and everyone will know it.

    This latest ‘view’ is just No 10 spin, trying to pretend there are less rebels than there really are. They have been running this line via their favoured sources for a few days. Fooling nobody.

    The best chance May has now is for Barnier to steer her towards CETA.
    The ERG are all huff and puff. If they vote down TM deal they run the real risk of a second referendum and the Country voting to remain, and how ironic that would be
    Bring it on!
    Both extremes I think will be driven more by what they fear than by what they want. The Brexiteers fear Remain, the Europhiles fear No Deal. TM is probably in a stronger position than appears.
  • TOPPING said:

    If it is reasonable that the Northern Irish can choose their future ...
    If it is reasonable that the Scottish can choose their future ...

    Then it should be reasonable that the English and Welsh can choose their future.

    The English (and Welsh which tends to be forgotten) have chosen Brexit. If the Northern Irish want to stay in the union that's their choice. If they want to leave that's their choice. I don't want to delegate my choice to either Brussels or Belfast.

    Conservative and Unionist Party, eh?
    I may be a Conservative but I am not a Unionist. People should stay together because they want to not because they are together. That applies equally to the UK and the EU.
    Just to be pedantic, it really means you are a conservative not a Conservative in the true sense. Conservatism and the unity of the UK are one and the same
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Nigelb said:

    Root looking to accelerate.
    Guessing Cook will continue to plod along.

    I'd bring in Buttler next. England need a couple of hours of one day mode to set up either a declaration or all out, doesn't really matter which.
  • TOPPING said:

    If it is reasonable that the Northern Irish can choose their future ...
    If it is reasonable that the Scottish can choose their future ...

    Then it should be reasonable that the English and Welsh can choose their future.

    The English (and Welsh which tends to be forgotten) have chosen Brexit. If the Northern Irish want to stay in the union that's their choice. If they want to leave that's their choice. I don't want to delegate my choice to either Brussels or Belfast.

    Conservative and Unionist Party, eh?
    I may be a Conservative but I am not a Unionist. People should stay together because they want to not because they are together. That applies equally to the UK and the EU.
    Just to be pedantic, it really means you are a conservative not a Conservative in the true sense. Conservatism and the unity of the UK are one and the same
    No they're not. Besides the Tories have long accepted the principle of self-determination.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    edited September 2018
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Root looking to accelerate.
    Guessing Cook will continue to plod along.

    I'd bring in Buttler next. England need a couple of hours of one day mode to set up either a declaration or all out, doesn't really matter which.
    If Root can farm the strike like this, it won't matter.
  • PeterC said:

    I think this is probably right, although in the current unstable landscape, it's hard to be sure:

    https://twitter.com/nickmacpherson2/status/1039075942235348992

    My wife made a very good point on this: there's not going to be any opportunity to 'vote against Chequers', because the vote will be on whatever deal is reached with the EU, which is not the same thing.

    As I've said before, are the ERG really going to go through the lobby as the LibDems, the SNP, Chukka Umunna and Keir Starmer to defeat it, and vice versa? The two sides would have had to have reached diametrically opposite conclusions as to what a defeat would lead to. How likely is that?

    Plus, the Tory high command and Whips will throw everything they can lay their hands on to get the votes through the lobby. This will be an operation the like of which we haven't seen in some time.

    So if any of the ERG still dream of a career or want an ounce of help from CCHQ next GE, then will have to be mighty sure that May falls if they vote against the deal.

    Plus - how many of them have skeletons in those cupboards? If the number really is 50-80, then a few at least.
    Making the continued incorrect assumption that the EU will accept Chequers, or something very like it. They won’t. The best May will get is a deal-lite, where we give away the NI backstop and the money in return for a non binding pile of fudge. That will never get through the Commons. It is indefensible and everyone will know it.

    This latest ‘view’ is just No 10 spin, trying to pretend there are less rebels than there really are. They have been running this line via their favoured sources for a few days. Fooling nobody.

    The best chance May has now is for Barnier to steer her towards CETA.
    The ERG are all huff and puff. If they vote down TM deal they run the real risk of a second referendum and the Country voting to remain, and how ironic that would be
    Bring it on!
    Both extremes I think will be driven more by what they fear than by what they want. The Brexiteers fear Remain, the Europhiles fear No Deal. TM is probably in a stronger position than appears.
    I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time
  • GIN1138 said:

    tpfkar said:

    I see Steve Baker is out and about saying that Chequers will split the Tory party. Seems an odd argument to make in public to me - it's saying that the country can go stuff itself as long as the Tory party holds together. Seems very nakedly political and partisan.

    The ERG also seem to have wimped out of putting any alternative forward - given the track record of anyone who tries to put a serious plan forward that's understandable, but all together they are looking like a bit of a rabble to me.

    Are the Brexiteers losing their touch?

    It's interesting that the "rabble" are the one's that are standing up for the Conservative manifesto commitments and saying all the things Theresa May used to say before she sold Brexit down the river....
    That's complete nonsense. It's Theresa May who is standing up for the manifesto commitments, and indeed (as far as is humanly possible) for the Leave campaign's explicit and unambiguous promise that we would be able to reach a comprehensive agreement with the EU which would leave us in the great free trade area 'from Ireland to Turkey', with little or no disruption to supply chains and to our manufacturing industries.

    The 'won't take yes for an answer' lot seem to have forgotten that. Maybe they never meant it, but that's what they said they wanted, and that's what people who voted Leave were voting for.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    Irexit could solve the NI/Ireland border problem for the UK and Ireland.
    Yes but it's not going to happen. The Irish are an independent nation and can do as they choose - re-aligning to us would be too much even if it made sense. The EU would have to become really painful for them before they wanted to leave.
    When the EU come for Ireland’s corporation tax rate - and it’s a question of when rather than if - then leaving the may look more attractive to the Irish. It’s a long way off at the moment though.
    Getting ever nearer without the UK's contributions. Especially if the EU is forty billion light on a No Deal Brexit.....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    Boycott decides to tempt fate:
    "India don't look like getting anyone out."
  • I think this is probably right, although in the current unstable landscape, it's hard to be sure:

    https://twitter.com/nickmacpherson2/status/1039075942235348992

    My wife made a very good point on this: there's not going to be any opportunity to 'vote against Chequers', because the vote will be on whatever deal is reached with the EU, which is not the same thing.

    As I've said before, are the ERG really going to go through the lobby as the LibDems, the SNP, Chukka Umunna and Keir Starmer to defeat it, and vice versa? The two sides would have had to have reached diametrically opposite conclusions as to what a defeat would lead to. How likely is that?

    Plus, the Tory high command and Whips will throw everything they can lay their hands on to get the votes through the lobby. This will be an operation the like of which we haven't seen in some time.

    So if any of the ERG still dream of a career or want an ounce of help from CCHQ next GE, then will have to be mighty sure that May falls if they vote against the deal.

    Plus - how many of them have skeletons in those cupboards? If the number really is 50-80, then a few at least.
    Making the continued incorrect assumption that the EU will accept Chequers, or something very like it. They won’t. The best May will get is a deal-lite, where we give away the NI backstop and the money in return for a non binding pile of fudge. That will never get through the Commons. It is indefensible and everyone will know it.

    This latest ‘view’ is just No 10 spin, trying to pretend there are less rebels than there really are. They have been running this line via their favoured sources for a few days. Fooling nobody.

    The best chance May has now is for Barnier to steer her towards CETA.
    The ERG are all huff and puff. If they vote down TM deal they run the real risk of a second referendum and the Country voting to remain, and how ironic that would be
    There is no risk whatsoever of a second referendum. If the ERG vote down a deal, there will be No Deal. That is the legal and political reality.
  • Well you all know what I think about the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox

    https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1039062449524232193
This discussion has been closed.