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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why a united Ireland post Brexit is a real possibility

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  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092

    geoffw said:

    Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!

    The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.

    Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
    Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/european-commission-chequers-theresa-may-brexit-plan-would-save-uk-business-billions/

    Care to address the evidence provided?
    Interesting report. Thanks for that.
    If you want to see the detail on the costs of REACH and it's effect then the CEFIC state of the EU chemicals industry is a good place.

    http://www.cefic.org/Facts-and-Figures/
    Thanks, but I didn't find it at all easy to find to find my way around that website.
  • They still haven't sorted out the boundary between Welwyn Hatfield and Hertsmere. It runs higgldy piggldy through the top of Potters Bar when there's enough rural bits to give potentially clean boundaries. Looking at the comments, it was gratifying to see that someone agreed with my original comment on there that Hertsmere is a stupid constituency with no shared history or direct links.
    Surely that is a problem of the local council boundaries? Hertsmere constituency was coterminous with Hertsmere Borough and now just has London Colney added.
  • young Eagles

    havent seen Mr Tyndall around for a while - banned ? had a flounce ? won the lottery ?
    He’s free to post.

    Next time Robert is on PB mention it to him.

    I think he has Richard’s email and might be better informed.
  • They still haven't sorted out the boundary between Welwyn Hatfield and Hertsmere. It runs higgldy piggldy through the top of Potters Bar when there's enough rural bits to give potentially clean boundaries. Looking at the comments, it was gratifying to see that someone agreed with my original comment on there that Hertsmere is a stupid constituency with no shared history or direct links.
    One other thing that I've just noticed if you look at the comments.
    The full address is listed of anyone who's commented.
    Yes. Does the information commissioner know people's full addresses are being divulged?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited September 2018
    Alistair said:

    Fun Quiz Answer Time:

    So, On Friday I asked the question "What value do you think my house bought 5 years ago for £250,000 will be surveyed at"

    Lots of you settled in for around £300,000ish pounds. The survey says: £335,000.

    The property market is utterly mental. 85 Grand increase in 5 years is nonsense.

    Are you upsizing or downsizing from this one though ?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    young Eagles

    havent seen Mr Tyndall around for a while - banned ? had a flounce ? won the lottery ?
    He’s free to post.

    Next time Robert is on PB mention it to him.

    I think he has Richard’s email and might be better informed.
    thanks
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited September 2018

    Looking at their website, they list three specific gripes:

    The Chequers whitepaper does not deliver Brexit.

    We object specifically to the following aspects of the Chequers white paper:

    - The common rule book allows ECJ overrule and severely hampers new free trade deals

    - The backstop allows Northern Ireland to be separated from the rest of the UK

    - Free movement of labour permits EU citizens to collect benefits whether in or out of work, without making UK contributions


    The second is irrelevant if a deal is reached, and by definition irrelevant if a deal isn't reached. The third seems to be wrong. That leaves the first, which has some force, but is hardly a ditch to die on.
    Nope the third is 100% correct, you can roll up to the UK get an NI number and immediately start to claim benefits. Why do you think I continually state that Brexit is due to Brown / Blair refusing to move to a contribution based welfare system....
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!

    The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.

    Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
    Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/european-commission-chequers-theresa-may-brexit-plan-would-save-uk-business-billions/

    Care to address the evidence provided?
    Interesting report. Thanks for that.
    If you want to see the detail on the costs of REACH and it's effect then the CEFIC state of the EU chemicals industry is a good place.

    http://www.cefic.org/Facts-and-Figures/
    Thanks, but I didn't find it at all easy to find to find my way around that website.
    http://fr.zone-secure.net/13451/451623/#page=1

    Click on the arrow on the right to move the slides.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763
    Alistair said:

    Fun Quiz Answer Time:

    So, On Friday I asked the question "What value do you think my house bought 5 years ago for £250,000 will be surveyed at"

    Lots of you settled in for around £300,000ish pounds. The survey says: £335,000.

    The property market is utterly mental. 85 Grand increase in 5 years is nonsense.

    Wow, you did buy well. Congratulations. I will be interested to learn if you get + or - valuation on the sale. In a rapidly rising market it is usually + because the valuation is itself based on older transactions.
  • DavidL said:

    Looking at their website, they list three specific gripes:

    The Chequers whitepaper does not deliver Brexit.

    We object specifically to the following aspects of the Chequers white paper:

    - The common rule book allows ECJ overrule and severely hampers new free trade deals

    - The backstop allows Northern Ireland to be separated from the rest of the UK

    - Free movement of labour permits EU citizens to collect benefits whether in or out of work, without making UK contributions


    The second is irrelevant if a deal is reached, and by definition irrelevant if a deal isn't reached. The third seems to be wrong. That leaves the first, which has some force, but is hardly a ditch to die on.
    That was my assessment which is why I would support a Chequers style agreement (through gritted teeth). In fact the 3rd is contrary to Chequers which indicates that there will be an end to free movement (whether the EU are minded to accept that "division of the 4 freedoms" or not is likely to be the biggest sticking point IMO).

    I think we could have done better but not from here and the alternatives available are worse. The incompetence of Davis and indeed Boris as well as May over the last 18 months carries a price.
    I think Baker's analysis is more valid. On (2) Even if the EU accept Chequers, the EU are going to insist on the legal NI backstop and offer a non-binding paper on trade. In fact, legally the EU cannot commit to a binding position on trade (which makes you wonder why we are bothering to negotiate with them...). So Baker is right that there is every chance that the end outcome will be the EU accept Chequers, then later claim it doesn't solve NI and insist on the backstop.

    May's mobility framework is undefined, but everyone seems to think that it will be FoM by another name.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited September 2018
    eek said:

    Looking at their website, they list three specific gripes:

    The Chequers whitepaper does not deliver Brexit.

    We object specifically to the following aspects of the Chequers white paper:

    - The common rule book allows ECJ overrule and severely hampers new free trade deals

    - The backstop allows Northern Ireland to be separated from the rest of the UK

    - Free movement of labour permits EU citizens to collect benefits whether in or out of work, without making UK contributions


    The second is irrelevant if a deal is reached, and by definition irrelevant if a deal isn't reached. The third seems to be wrong. That leaves the first, which has some force, but is hardly a ditch to die on.
    Nope the third is 100% correct, you can roll up to the UK get an NI number and immediately start to claim benefits. Why do you think I continually state that Brexit is due to Brown / Blair refusing to move to a contribution based welfare system....
    Is it because you blame Labour for every Tory calamity visited on the country? :)

  • They still haven't sorted out the boundary between Welwyn Hatfield and Hertsmere. It runs higgldy piggldy through the top of Potters Bar when there's enough rural bits to give potentially clean boundaries. Looking at the comments, it was gratifying to see that someone agreed with my original comment on there that Hertsmere is a stupid constituency with no shared history or direct links.
    Oxford proposals are not what I was expecting.

    Oxford East - gone. Oxford West and Abingdon gone.

    New seat of Oxford - which looks very safe Labour seat to me

    New seat of Abingdon and Oxford North - maybe safer for Layla Moran than OxWAb is at present - but that is far from certain. It is a very strangely shaped constituency indeed.
  • Anyone who downloads the boundary commission review should be put on a watchlist immediately
  • I don't think that is actually much of a shift. Smaller party shares were much depressed as a consequence of the vote.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763
    I can't bothered to check but I am pretty certain Cook has got more runs in this test than in the other 4 put together.

    I think if England can get another 100 in this coming session they should be looking to put the Indians in shortly after tea. They have scored at a good rate this morning (the partnership is averaging 3.9 runs an over despite the desperately slow going yesterday evening) and need to keep that up for the next 30 overs. With Buttler, Stokes and Bairstow being let loose that really shouldn't be difficult.

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Scott_P said:
    Maybe he could try for a new seat in the Harrow/Enfield area :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited September 2018
    DavidL said:


    I think if England can get another 100 in this coming session they should be looking to put the Indians in shortly after tea.

    That should be what happens but Root's captaincy frequently isn't to the same standard as his batting.
    I think he'll put India in with ~ 40 minutes to go (~ 5:50) when he might have declared at say 5.
    Edit: If England get a move on, he should probably declare once the lead hits 400.
  • I think he'll wait until Cook at least is out
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited September 2018

    eek said:

    Looking at their website, they list three specific gripes:

    The Chequers whitepaper does not deliver Brexit.

    We object specifically to the following aspects of the Chequers white paper:

    - The common rule book allows ECJ overrule and severely hampers new free trade deals

    - The backstop allows Northern Ireland to be separated from the rest of the UK

    - Free movement of labour permits EU citizens to collect benefits whether in or out of work, without making UK contributions


    The second is irrelevant if a deal is reached, and by definition irrelevant if a deal isn't reached. The third seems to be wrong. That leaves the first, which has some force, but is hardly a ditch to die on.
    Nope the third is 100% correct, you can roll up to the UK get an NI number and immediately start to claim benefits. Why do you think I continually state that Brexit is due to Brown / Blair refusing to move to a contribution based welfare system....
    Is it because you blame Labour for every Tory calamity visited on the country? :)

    The Tories screwed up by putting a referendum in their manifesto and destroying the Lib Dems who they hoped would continue with them and veto the vote.

    The latter is more nuanced but working tax credits attract a type of immigrant I don't see in Denmark / Austria (picking places I've worked in over the past few years)...

    Equally I can fully understand why Brown / Blair didn't introduce contribution based welfare when it was suggested to do so - sadly (for obvious reasons) Labour is the only party who could do so and they dropped the ball here...
  • Completely off topic: Does anyone have the email address of a sentient being in HMRC's software team? We're trying to file my wife's tax return and there is a server-end error every single time at the final stage (when she confirms that it's all correct and wants to submit it). Needless to say the helpdesks haven't the faintest clue and ignore the actual content of what we tell them. Anyone got any ideas of how to escalate it?

    Is it one of their accursed fill-in-the-blank PDFs? Last time I had an issue like that, I solved it by the desperately tedious procedure of starting over with a new file and manually retyping everything into that.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:


    I think if England can get another 100 in this coming session they should be looking to put the Indians in shortly after tea.

    That should be what happens but Root's captaincy frequently isn't to the same standard as his batting.
    I think he'll put India in with ~ 40 minutes to go (~ 5:50) when he might have declared at say 5.
    They almost certainly have enough runs already. It is just a question of psychologically crushing them and leaving them without hope now and that is a legitimate tactic. For the first time in this excellent series the Indian bowlers are looking weary and short of ideas. Their seamers have been superb.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    felix said:

    Scott_P said:
    Maybe he could try for a new seat in the Harrow/Enfield area :)
    There's a vacancy in Streatham, I understand.
  • I don't think that is actually much of a shift. Smaller party shares were much depressed as a consequence of the vote.
    We don't often see 7% swings
  • DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:


    I think if England can get another 100 in this coming session they should be looking to put the Indians in shortly after tea.

    That should be what happens but Root's captaincy frequently isn't to the same standard as his batting.
    I think he'll put India in with ~ 40 minutes to go (~ 5:50) when he might have declared at say 5.
    They almost certainly have enough runs already. It is just a question of psychologically crushing them and leaving them without hope now and that is a legitimate tactic. For the first time in this excellent series the Indian bowlers are looking weary and short of ideas. Their seamers have been superb.
    Cook and Root should push on for double-centuries before declaring.
  • Well you all know what I think about the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox

    https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1039062449524232193

    [Citation Needed]
    “The free trade agreement that we will have to do with the European Union should be one of the easiest in human history.

    “We are already beginning with zero tariffs, and we are already beginning at the point of maximal regulatory equivalence, as it is called. In other words, our rules and our laws are exactly the same.”
    Key word should. If you bother to read the full article he goes on to say that politics could interfere ... but you already knew that so why are you being deceptive?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    twitter.com/BCE2018/status/1039117896729997312

    Prediction: Labour MPs whose seats are abolished will resign as a protest against Corbyn or antisemitism or Corbyn's antisemitism, on a point of principle.

    Conservative MPs will resign as a protest against Chequers or for a second referendum, on a point of principle.

    ETA the new boundaries report is at https://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Final-recommendations-report.pdf
    The Broxtowe proposals are unchanged, and would lead to most of Anna Soubry's seat being divided into two with bits added on from Nottingham and Hucknall, both of which would be less Tory than the current one because of the additions. Nottingham West and Beeston would be Labour in most years (Beeston has zero Tory borough councillors); Broxtowe & Hucknall pretty marginal and presumably the one AS would try to hold.

    As for JC's constituency being abolished, I suspect he would not have difficulty in getting selection as the Labour candidate anywhere he chose.
  • felix said:

    Scott_P said:
    Maybe he could try for a new seat in the Harrow/Enfield area :)
    It is hard not to smile at this...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:


    I think if England can get another 100 in this coming session they should be looking to put the Indians in shortly after tea.

    That should be what happens but Root's captaincy frequently isn't to the same standard as his batting.
    I think he'll put India in with ~ 40 minutes to go (~ 5:50) when he might have declared at say 5.
    They almost certainly have enough runs already. It is just a question of psychologically crushing them and leaving them without hope now and that is a legitimate tactic. For the first time in this excellent series the Indian bowlers are looking weary and short of ideas. Their seamers have been superb.
    Cook and Root should push on for double-centuries before declaring.
    India would settle for that !
  • felix said:

    Scott_P said:
    Maybe he could try for a new seat in the Harrow/Enfield area :)
    It is hard not to smile at this...
    That's a touch too close to home for me. Especially Enfield
  • Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:


    I think if England can get another 100 in this coming session they should be looking to put the Indians in shortly after tea.

    That should be what happens but Root's captaincy frequently isn't to the same standard as his batting.
    I think he'll put India in with ~ 40 minutes to go (~ 5:50) when he might have declared at say 5.
    They almost certainly have enough runs already. It is just a question of psychologically crushing them and leaving them without hope now and that is a legitimate tactic. For the first time in this excellent series the Indian bowlers are looking weary and short of ideas. Their seamers have been superb.
    Cook and Root should push on for double-centuries before declaring.
    India would settle for that !
    Not sure, they'll go in totally demoralised, with nothing to play for and with a 500-run lead England could have an incredibly aggressive field for the rest of the Test.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763
    100 for Root! Excellent way to finish a pretty rubbish summer for him personally.
  • I don't think that is actually much of a shift. Smaller party shares were much depressed as a consequence of the vote.
    We don't often see 7% swings
    My point is, I don't think it is one. I think it's a trick of the figures and the question being asked.
  • They still haven't sorted out the boundary between Welwyn Hatfield and Hertsmere. It runs higgldy piggldy through the top of Potters Bar when there's enough rural bits to give potentially clean boundaries. Looking at the comments, it was gratifying to see that someone agreed with my original comment on there that Hertsmere is a stupid constituency with no shared history or direct links.
    Oxford proposals are not what I was expecting.

    Oxford East - gone. Oxford West and Abingdon gone.

    New seat of Oxford - which looks very safe Labour seat to me

    New seat of Abingdon and Oxford North - maybe safer for Layla Moran than OxWAb is at present - but that is far from certain. It is a very strangely shaped constituency indeed.
    It is. On balance I think it's probably good for Layla, but there's not much in it. Kirtlington being in Abingdon & Oxford North is arguably more sensible than it being in Henley, at any rate...
  • twitter.com/BCE2018/status/1039117896729997312

    Prediction: Labour MPs whose seats are abolished will resign as a protest against Corbyn or antisemitism or Corbyn's antisemitism, on a point of principle.

    Conservative MPs will resign as a protest against Chequers or for a second referendum, on a point of principle.

    ETA the new boundaries report is at https://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Final-recommendations-report.pdf
    The Broxtowe proposals are unchanged, and would lead to most of Anna Soubry's seat being divided into two with bits added on from Nottingham and Hucknall, both of which would be less Tory than the current one because of the additions. Nottingham West and Beeston would be Labour in most years (Beeston has zero Tory borough councillors); Broxtowe & Hucknall pretty marginal and presumably the one AS would try to hold.

    As for JC's constituency being abolished, I suspect he would not have difficulty in getting selection as the Labour candidate anywhere he chose.
    Barnet?
  • felix said:

    Scott_P said:
    Maybe he could try for a new seat in the Harrow/Enfield area :)
    It is hard not to smile at this...
    That's a touch too close to home for me. Especially Enfield
    Not the Enfield bit - just the news that Corbyn will have to spend energy and time being selected for a new seat.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:


    I think if England can get another 100 in this coming session they should be looking to put the Indians in shortly after tea.

    That should be what happens but Root's captaincy frequently isn't to the same standard as his batting.
    I think he'll put India in with ~ 40 minutes to go (~ 5:50) when he might have declared at say 5.
    They almost certainly have enough runs already. It is just a question of psychologically crushing them and leaving them without hope now and that is a legitimate tactic. For the first time in this excellent series the Indian bowlers are looking weary and short of ideas. Their seamers have been superb.
    Cook and Root should push on for double-centuries before declaring.
    India would settle for that !
    Not sure, they'll go in totally demoralised, with nothing to play for and with a 500-run lead England could have an incredibly aggressive field for the rest of the Test.
    Surviving 93 overs is easier than surviving 110 !
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:


    I think if England can get another 100 in this coming session they should be looking to put the Indians in shortly after tea.

    That should be what happens but Root's captaincy frequently isn't to the same standard as his batting.
    I think he'll put India in with ~ 40 minutes to go (~ 5:50) when he might have declared at say 5.
    They almost certainly have enough runs already. It is just a question of psychologically crushing them and leaving them without hope now and that is a legitimate tactic. For the first time in this excellent series the Indian bowlers are looking weary and short of ideas. Their seamers have been superb.
    Cook and Root should push on for double-centuries before declaring.
    India would settle for that !
    Not sure, they'll go in totally demoralised, with nothing to play for and with a 500-run lead England could have an incredibly aggressive field for the rest of the Test.
    Surviving 93 overs is easier than surviving 110 !
    We should be able to back ourselves to get 10 wickets in 93 overs.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545
    Conservatives in Milton Keynes will be toasting the Boundary Commission.

    2 Tory held marginals.

    The numbers and regional boundaries mean that 2 wards have to be thrown out of MK into Buckingham. Boundary Commission proposed a Lab/Con marginal and a Con ward. Have now changed it (back) to the Lab/Con marginal and a Labour stronghold (Wolverton) This will make holding Milton Keynes South *much* easier next time for the Tories.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545

    twitter.com/BCE2018/status/1039117896729997312

    Prediction: Labour MPs whose seats are abolished will resign as a protest against Corbyn or antisemitism or Corbyn's antisemitism, on a point of principle.

    Conservative MPs will resign as a protest against Chequers or for a second referendum, on a point of principle.

    ETA the new boundaries report is at https://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Final-recommendations-report.pdf
    The Broxtowe proposals are unchanged, and would lead to most of Anna Soubry's seat being divided into two with bits added on from Nottingham and Hucknall, both of which would be less Tory than the current one because of the additions. Nottingham West and Beeston would be Labour in most years (Beeston has zero Tory borough councillors); Broxtowe & Hucknall pretty marginal and presumably the one AS would try to hold.

    As for JC's constituency being abolished, I suspect he would not have difficulty in getting selection as the Labour candidate anywhere he chose.
    Barnet?
    I hear Barrow in Furness needs a new candidate with keen interest in nuclear issues?
  • twitter.com/BCE2018/status/1039117896729997312

    Prediction: Labour MPs whose seats are abolished will resign as a protest against Corbyn or antisemitism or Corbyn's antisemitism, on a point of principle.

    Conservative MPs will resign as a protest against Chequers or for a second referendum, on a point of principle.

    ETA the new boundaries report is at https://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Final-recommendations-report.pdf
    The Broxtowe proposals are unchanged, and would lead to most of Anna Soubry's seat being divided into two with bits added on from Nottingham and Hucknall, both of which would be less Tory than the current one because of the additions. Nottingham West and Beeston would be Labour in most years (Beeston has zero Tory borough councillors); Broxtowe & Hucknall pretty marginal and presumably the one AS would try to hold.

    As for JC's constituency being abolished, I suspect he would not have difficulty in getting selection as the Labour candidate anywhere he chose.
    Barnet?
    Oi! You can stop all this moving him in next door to me stuff
  • 3 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece entitled 'Why you should be wary of hypothetical polling'. It explains how 'people are generally bad' at 'explaining how they decide their votes' and 'entertaining counterfactuals'. This fits with the generally accepted principles of political polling (e.g. 'polls asking about how people would vote in hypothetical situations aren’t particularly useful', Anthony Wells)

    10 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece explaining how a hypothetical poll 'clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland', and supports it with a second hypothetical poll showing 'more than one in four in Northern Ireland claiming that they would at least consider abandoning support for the Union in favour of a united Ireland post Brexit'.

    That is quite a poor show
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    3 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece entitled 'Why you should be wary of hypothetical polling'. It explains how 'people are generally bad' at 'explaining how they decide their votes' and 'entertaining counterfactuals'. This fits with the generally accepted principles of political polling (e.g. 'polls asking about how people would vote in hypothetical situations aren’t particularly useful', Anthony Wells)

    10 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece explaining how a hypothetical poll 'clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland', and supports it with a second hypothetical poll showing 'more than one in four in Northern Ireland claiming that they would at least consider abandoning support for the Union in favour of a united Ireland post Brexit'.

    PB publishes different pieces by differing contributors.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    3 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece entitled 'Why you should be wary of hypothetical polling'. It explains how 'people are generally bad' at 'explaining how they decide their votes' and 'entertaining counterfactuals'. This fits with the generally accepted principles of political polling (e.g. 'polls asking about how people would vote in hypothetical situations aren’t particularly useful', Anthony Wells)

    10 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece explaining how a hypothetical poll 'clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland', and supports it with a second hypothetical poll showing 'more than one in four in Northern Ireland claiming that they would at least consider abandoning support for the Union in favour of a united Ireland post Brexit'.

    That is quite a poor show
    But two different contributors....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    edited September 2018

    3 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece entitled 'Why you should be wary of hypothetical polling'. It explains how 'people are generally bad' at 'explaining how they decide their votes' and 'entertaining counterfactuals'. This fits with the generally accepted principles of political polling (e.g. 'polls asking about how people would vote in hypothetical situations aren’t particularly useful', Anthony Wells)

    10 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece explaining how a hypothetical poll 'clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland', and supports it with a second hypothetical poll showing 'more than one in four in Northern Ireland claiming that they would at least consider abandoning support for the Union in favour of a united Ireland post Brexit'.

    That is quite a poor show
    It isn't.

    1) They were written by different authors, Mike gives us the luxury to write what we like. There's no settled PB view.

    2) Keiran's a very respected pollster, as is Ariel Edwards-Levy, whose tweet thread the first article is based on, is the Polling Editor of the Huffington Post.

    3) Chelyabinsk missed out Keiran's quote which was ' So although this poll clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland, the scale of that shift and how a border poll plays out in practice is unclear.'
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Anorak said:

    felix said:

    Scott_P said:
    Maybe he could try for a new seat in the Harrow/Enfield area :)
    There's a vacancy in Streatham, I understand.
    Chuka chucked!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    tpfkar said:

    Conservatives in Milton Keynes will be toasting the Boundary Commission.

    2 Tory held marginals.

    The numbers and regional boundaries mean that 2 wards have to be thrown out of MK into Buckingham. Boundary Commission proposed a Lab/Con marginal and a Con ward. Have now changed it (back) to the Lab/Con marginal and a Labour stronghold (Wolverton) This will make holding Milton Keynes South *much* easier next time for the Tories.

    Glad to see the commission doing their job to ensure a Tory majority at the next GE. :smiley:
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763

    3 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece entitled 'Why you should be wary of hypothetical polling'. It explains how 'people are generally bad' at 'explaining how they decide their votes' and 'entertaining counterfactuals'. This fits with the generally accepted principles of political polling (e.g. 'polls asking about how people would vote in hypothetical situations aren’t particularly useful', Anthony Wells)

    10 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece explaining how a hypothetical poll 'clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland', and supports it with a second hypothetical poll showing 'more than one in four in Northern Ireland claiming that they would at least consider abandoning support for the Union in favour of a united Ireland post Brexit'.

    That is quite a poor show
    It isn't.

    1) They were written by different authors, Mike gives us the luxury to write what we like. There's no settled PB view.

    2) Keiran's a very respected pollster, as is Ariel Edwards-Levy, whose tweet thread the first article is based on, is the Polling Editor of the Huffington Post.

    3) Chelyabinsk missed out Keiran's quote which was ' So although this poll clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland, the scale of that shift and how a border poll plays out in practice is unclear.'
    Plus I am sure that I have read some comments below the line on PB that were not entirely respectful of the thread header. It's a free country and a free site for which we should be grateful.
  • twitter.com/BCE2018/status/1039117896729997312

    Prediction: Labour MPs whose seats are abolished will resign as a protest against Corbyn or antisemitism or Corbyn's antisemitism, on a point of principle.

    Conservative MPs will resign as a protest against Chequers or for a second referendum, on a point of principle.

    ETA the new boundaries report is at https://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Final-recommendations-report.pdf
    The Broxtowe proposals are unchanged, and would lead to most of Anna Soubry's seat being divided into two with bits added on from Nottingham and Hucknall, both of which would be less Tory than the current one because of the additions. Nottingham West and Beeston would be Labour in most years (Beeston has zero Tory borough councillors); Broxtowe & Hucknall pretty marginal and presumably the one AS would try to hold.

    As for JC's constituency being abolished, I suspect he would not have difficulty in getting selection as the Labour candidate anywhere he chose.
    Barnet?
    Oi! You can stop all this moving him in next door to me stuff
    He'll bring Seumas, Diane, John, Owen et al with him.

    You'll love it.
  • I can't help feeling that the first sentence should be rephrased. Sadiq might not be the greatest of mayors, but even his sharpest critics don't claim that he's personally been engaged in a summer of violent crime!
  • twitter.com/BCE2018/status/1039117896729997312

    Prediction: Labour MPs whose seats are abolished will resign as a protest against Corbyn or antisemitism or Corbyn's antisemitism, on a point of principle.

    Conservative MPs will resign as a protest against Chequers or for a second referendum, on a point of principle.

    ETA the new boundaries report is at https://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Final-recommendations-report.pdf
    The Broxtowe proposals are unchanged, and would lead to most of Anna Soubry's seat being divided into two with bits added on from Nottingham and Hucknall, both of which would be less Tory than the current one because of the additions. Nottingham West and Beeston would be Labour in most years (Beeston has zero Tory borough councillors); Broxtowe & Hucknall pretty marginal and presumably the one AS would try to hold.

    As for JC's constituency being abolished, I suspect he would not have difficulty in getting selection as the Labour candidate anywhere he chose.
    Barnet?
    Oi! You can stop all this moving him in next door to me stuff
    He'll bring Seumas, Diane, John, Owen et al with him.

    You'll love it.
    His crew won't spend any time in his constituency - they will be too busy trying to defeat the enemy. Other Labour MPs...
  • JohnRussellJohnRussell Posts: 297
    edited September 2018

    3 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece entitled 'Why you should be wary of hypothetical polling'. It explains how 'people are generally bad' at 'explaining how they decide their votes' and 'entertaining counterfactuals'. This fits with the generally accepted principles of political polling (e.g. 'polls asking about how people would vote in hypothetical situations aren’t particularly useful', Anthony Wells)

    10 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece explaining how a hypothetical poll 'clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland', and supports it with a second hypothetical poll showing 'more than one in four in Northern Ireland claiming that they would at least consider abandoning support for the Union in favour of a united Ireland post Brexit'.

    That is quite a poor show
    It isn't.

    1) They were written by different authors, Mike gives us the luxury to write what we like. There's no settled PB view.

    2) Keiran's a very respected pollster, as is Ariel Edwards-Levy, whose tweet thread the first article is based on, is the Polling Editor of the Huffington Post.

    3) Chelyabinsk missed out Keiran's quote which was ' So although this poll clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland, the scale of that shift and how a border poll plays out in practice is unclear.'
    "It isn't."

    Do we have the luxury to think what we like, with no settled view?
  • twitter.com/BCE2018/status/1039117896729997312

    Prediction: Labour MPs whose seats are abolished will resign as a protest against Corbyn or antisemitism or Corbyn's antisemitism, on a point of principle.

    Conservative MPs will resign as a protest against Chequers or for a second referendum, on a point of principle.

    ETA the new boundaries report is at https://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Final-recommendations-report.pdf
    The Broxtowe proposals are unchanged, and would lead to most of Anna Soubry's seat being divided into two with bits added on from Nottingham and Hucknall, both of which would be less Tory than the current one because of the additions. Nottingham West and Beeston would be Labour in most years (Beeston has zero Tory borough councillors); Broxtowe & Hucknall pretty marginal and presumably the one AS would try to hold.

    As for JC's constituency being abolished, I suspect he would not have difficulty in getting selection as the Labour candidate anywhere he chose.
    Barnet?
    Oi! You can stop all this moving him in next door to me stuff
    He'll bring Seumas, Diane, John, Owen et al with him.

    You'll love it.
    Time to turn the M25 into a moat
  • I can't help feeling that the first sentence should be rephrased. Sadiq might not be the greatest of mayors, but even his sharpest critics don't claim that he's personally been engaged in a summer of violent crime!
    This is why the Oxford Comma is important.
  • Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!

    The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.

    Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
    Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.
    tit
    Just got back to my PC to enjoy your response. Nice to see you upholding the reputation of the rapier wit and eloquence of the average leaver
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!

    The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.

    Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
    Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.
    tit
    Just got back to my PC to enjoy your response. Nice to see you upholding the reputation of the rapier wit and eloquence of the average leaver
    tit
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Rook/Cook partnership inching toward 250. Aside from my personal irritation with the lack of slogging at this stage, it must be demoralising for a field to face the same pair for so very long.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Looking at their website, they list three specific gripes:

    The Chequers whitepaper does not deliver Brexit.

    We object specifically to the following aspects of the Chequers white paper:

    - The common rule book allows ECJ overrule and severely hampers new free trade deals

    - The backstop allows Northern Ireland to be separated from the rest of the UK

    - Free movement of labour permits EU citizens to collect benefits whether in or out of work, without making UK contributions


    The second is irrelevant if a deal is reached, and by definition irrelevant if a deal isn't reached. The third seems to be wrong. That leaves the first, which has some force, but is hardly a ditch to die on.
    Nope the third is 100% correct, you can roll up to the UK get an NI number and immediately start to claim benefits. Why do you think I continually state that Brexit is due to Brown / Blair refusing to move to a contribution based welfare system....
    Is it because you blame Labour for every Tory calamity visited on the country? :)

    The Tories screwed up by putting a referendum in their manifesto and destroying the Lib Dems who they hoped would continue with them and veto the vote.

    The latter is more nuanced but working tax credits attract a type of immigrant I don't see in Denmark / Austria (picking places I've worked in over the past few years)...

    Equally I can fully understand why Brown / Blair didn't introduce contribution based welfare when it was suggested to do so - sadly (for obvious reasons) Labour is the only party who could do so and they dropped the ball here...
    Eric pickles gave advice to conservative councillors. How a crisis can be used to do things you wouldn’t normally think possible to do. Ie. Local government spending cuts would allow you to ditch the enormous amount of dead wood floating around your council.
    With this Brexit would be an ideal means for the government to make those kind of welfare changes. Taking ourself out of the single market is nothing more than sodding self harm. We have an immigration issue that has pushed up numbers and flatlined wages at the bottom end, along with the fact that many people don’t like the changes that have happened in their area of other areas.

    How we manage our welfare system is up to us. Stay in single market and create contributions based welfare eligibility. Enforce rules on free movement of people and actively remove those here for more than threee months without a means to support themselves (as is allowed).


  • JohnRussellJohnRussell Posts: 297
    edited September 2018
    DavidL said:

    3 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece entitled 'Why you should be wary of hypothetical polling'. It explains how 'people are generally bad' at 'explaining how they decide their votes' and 'entertaining counterfactuals'. This fits with the generally accepted principles of political polling (e.g. 'polls asking about how people would vote in hypothetical situations aren’t particularly useful', Anthony Wells)

    10 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece explaining how a hypothetical poll 'clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland', and supports it with a second hypothetical poll showing 'more than one in four in Northern Ireland claiming that they would at least consider abandoning support for the Union in favour of a united Ireland post Brexit'.

    That is quite a poor show
    It isn't.

    1) They were written by different authors, Mike gives us the luxury to write what we like. There's no settled PB view.

    2) Keiran's a very respected pollster, as is Ariel Edwards-Levy, whose tweet thread the first article is based on, is the Polling Editor of the Huffington Post.

    3) Chelyabinsk missed out Keiran's quote which was ' So although this poll clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland, the scale of that shift and how a border poll plays out in practice is unclear.'
    Plus I am sure that I have read some comments below the line on PB that were not entirely respectful of the thread header. It's a free country and a free site for which we should be grateful.
    Well it seems a little poor to me that instead of saying "Remember last weeks header about hypothetical polling..." a lot of people are commenting along the lines of "See I told you Brexit would lead to a united Ireland..." with no reference to the previous header. Chelyabinsk made a good spot in my opinion.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763
    Anorak said:

    Rook/Cook partnership inching toward 250. Aside from my personal irritation with the lack of slogging at this stage, it must be demoralising for a field to face the same pair for so very long.

    Plus the run rate of this partnership has just gone over 4 an over. They are hardly taking time out of the game.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!

    The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.

    Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
    Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.
    tit
    Just got back to my PC to enjoy your response. Nice to see you upholding the reputation of the rapier wit and eloquence of the average leaver
    tit
    You've covered the upper part of the body with the last two responses. I suspect the third response will stray below the waist.
  • notme said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Looking at their website, they list three specific gripes:



    The second is irrelevant if a deal is reached, and by definition irrelevant if a deal isn't reached. The third seems to be wrong. That leaves the first, which has some force, but is hardly a ditch to die on.
    Nope the third is 100% correct, you can roll up to the UK get an NI number and immediately start to claim benefits. Why do you think I continually state that Brexit is due to Brown / Blair refusing to move to a contribution based welfare system....
    Is it because you blame Labour for every Tory calamity visited on the country? :)

    The Tories screwed up by putting a referendum in their manifesto and destroying the Lib Dems who they hoped would continue with them and veto the vote.

    The latter is more nuanced but working tax credits attract a type of immigrant I don't see in Denmark / Austria (picking places I've worked in over the past few years)...

    Equally I can fully understand why Brown / Blair didn't introduce contribution based welfare when it was suggested to do so - sadly (for obvious reasons) Labour is the only party who could do so and they dropped the ball here...
    Eric pickles gave advice to conservative councillors. How a crisis can be used to do things you wouldn’t normally think possible to do. Ie. Local government spending cuts would allow you to ditch the enormous amount of dead wood floating around your council.
    With this Brexit would be an ideal means for the government to make those kind of welfare changes. Taking ourself out of the single market is nothing more than sodding self harm. We have an immigration issue that has pushed up numbers and flatlined wages at the bottom end, along with the fact that many people don’t like the changes that have happened in their area of other areas.

    How we manage our welfare system is up to us. Stay in single market and create contributions based welfare eligibility. Enforce rules on free movement of people and actively remove those here for more than threee months without a means to support themselves (as is allowed).


    I am more concerned Brexit will give underperforming schools, hospitals, and councils an opportunity to be s***.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    Anorak said:

    Rook/Cook partnership inching toward 250. Aside from my personal irritation with the lack of slogging at this stage, it must be demoralising for a field to face the same pair for so very long.

    Shouldn't that be Root/Coot ?
  • RobD said:
    Great sigh of relief
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    RobD said:
    Great sigh of relief
    Totally. Eu is built on fudge.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    DavidL said:

    Anorak said:

    Rook/Cook partnership inching toward 250. Aside from my personal irritation with the lack of slogging at this stage, it must be demoralising for a field to face the same pair for so very long.

    Plus the run rate of this partnership has just gone over 4 an over. They are hardly taking time out of the game.
    True. I'm going to guess there'll be a declaration at 4:30-5:00.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    notme said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Looking at their website, they list three specific gripes:



    The second is irrelevant if a deal is reached, and by definition irrelevant if a deal isn't reached. The third seems to be wrong. That leaves the first, which has some force, but is hardly a ditch to die on.
    Nope the third is 100% correct, you can roll up to the UK get an NI number and immediately start to claim benefits. Why do you think I continually state that Brexit is due to Brown / Blair refusing to move to a contribution based welfare system....
    Is it because you blame Labour for every Tory calamity visited on the country? :)

    The Tories screwed up by putting a referendum in their manifesto and destroying the Lib Dems who they hoped would continue with them and veto the vote.

    The latter is more nuanced but working tax credits attract a type of immigrant I don't see in Denmark / Austria (picking places I've worked in over the past few years)...

    Equally I can fully understand why Brown / Blair didn't introduce contribution based welfare when it was suggested to do so - sadly (for obvious reasons) Labour is the only party who could do so and they dropped the ball here...
    Eric pickles gave advice to conservative councillors. How a crisis can be used to do things you wouldn’t normally think possible to do. Ie. Local government spending cuts would allow you to ditch the enormous amount of dead wood floating around your council.
    With this Brexit would be an ideal means for the government to make those kind of welfare changes. Taking ourself out of the single market is nothing more than sodding self harm. We have an immigration issue that has pushed up numbers and flatlined wages at the bottom end, along with the fact that many people don’t like the changes that have happened in their area of other areas.

    How we manage our welfare system is up to us. Stay in single market and create contributions based welfare eligibility. Enforce rules on free movement of people and actively remove those here for more than threee months without a means to support themselves (as is allowed).


    I am more concerned Brexit will give underperforming schools, hospitals, and councils an opportunity to be s***.
    An excuse to be maybe.
  • 3 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece entitled 'Why you should be wary of hypothetical polling'. It explains how 'people are generally bad' at 'explaining how they decide their votes' and 'entertaining counterfactuals'. This fits with the generally accepted principles of political polling (e.g. 'polls asking about how people would vote in hypothetical situations aren’t particularly useful', Anthony Wells)

    10 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece explaining how a hypothetical poll 'clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland', and supports it with a second hypothetical poll showing 'more than one in four in Northern Ireland claiming that they would at least consider abandoning support for the Union in favour of a united Ireland post Brexit'.

    That is quite a poor show
    It isn't.

    1) They were written by different authors, Mike gives us the luxury to write what we like. There's no settled PB view.

    2) Keiran's a very respected pollster, as is Ariel Edwards-Levy, whose tweet thread the first article is based on, is the Polling Editor of the Huffington Post.

    3) Chelyabinsk missed out Keiran's quote which was ' So although this poll clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland, the scale of that shift and how a border poll plays out in practice is unclear.'
    "It isn't."

    Do we have the luxury to think what we like, with no settled view?
    You can think what you like.
  • Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!

    The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.

    Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
    Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.
    tit
    Just got back to my PC to enjoy your response. Nice to see you upholding the reputation of the rapier wit and eloquence of the average leaver
    tit
    Excellent again. I have changed my nickname for you. You are no longer Comical Ali. You will now for ever be known as Alan Two Tits Brooke
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Nigelb said:

    Anorak said:

    Rook/Cook partnership inching toward 250. Aside from my personal irritation with the lack of slogging at this stage, it must be demoralising for a field to face the same pair for so very long.

    Shouldn't that be Root/Coot ?
    Nathan Rook & Edward Coot
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Nigelb said:

    Anorak said:

    Rook/Cook partnership inching toward 250. Aside from my personal irritation with the lack of slogging at this stage, it must be demoralising for a field to face the same pair for so very long.

    Shouldn't that be Root/Coot ?
    Ah. Crook?
  • Good afternoon, comrades.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763

    DavidL said:

    That is quite a poor show
    It isn't.

    1) They were written by different authors, Mike gives us the luxury to write what we like. There's no settled PB view.

    2) Keiran's a very respected pollster, as is Ariel Edwards-Levy, whose tweet thread the first article is based on, is the Polling Editor of the Huffington Post.

    3) Chelyabinsk missed out Keiran's quote which was ' So although this poll clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland, the scale of that shift and how a border poll plays out in practice is unclear.'
    Plus I am sure that I have read some comments below the line on PB that were not entirely respectful of the thread header. It's a free country and a free site for which we should be grateful.
    Well it seems a little poor to me that instead of saying "Remember last weeks header about hypothetical polling..." a lot of people are commenting along the lines of "See I told you Brexit would lead to a united Ireland..." with no reference to the previous header. Chelyabinsk made a good spot in my opinion.
    That is presumably because you disagree with it. As you are free to do. And Chelyabinsk is entitled to point out the inconsistency. The only times I have been disappointed with PB is when argumentative if somewhat intemperate voices have been banned. We have lost some good contributors that way over the years. Disagreements are what keep this site alive.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    RobD said:
    Great sigh of relief
    why ?
    it has been obvious for quite some time a deal will be done. It's only in the ramped up environment here that people have missed the cues.
    But now standby for months of partisan biuckering of its the wrong deal.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!

    The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.

    Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
    Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.
    tit
    Just got back to my PC to enjoy your response. Nice to see you upholding the reputation of the rapier wit and eloquence of the average leaver
    tit
    Excellent again. I have changed my nickname for you. You are no longer Comical Ali. You will now for ever be known as Alan Two Tits Brooke
    I have you down as a dog groomer

    but not in a healthy way
  • notme said:

    notme said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Looking at their website, they list three specific gripes:



    The second is irrelevant if a deal is reached, and by definition irrelevant if a deal isn't reached. The third seems to be wrong. That leaves the first, which has some force, but is hardly a ditch to die on.
    Nope the third is 100% correct, you can roll up to the UK get an NI number and immediately start to claim benefits. Why do you think I continually state that Brexit is due to Brown / Blair refusing to move to a contribution based welfare system....
    Is it because you blame Labour for every Tory calamity visited on the country? :)

    The Tories screwed up by putting a referendum in their manifesto and destroying the Lib Dems who they hoped would continue with them and veto the vote.

    The latter is more nuanced but working tax credits attract a type of immigrant I don't see in Denmark / Austria (picking places I've worked in over the past few years)...

    Equally I can fully understand why Brown / Blair didn't introduce contribution based welfare when it was suggested to do so - sadly (for obvious reasons) Labour is the only party who could do so and they dropped the ball here...
    Eric pickles gave advice to conservative councillors. How a crisis can be used to do things you wouldn’t normally think possible to do. Ie. Local government spending cuts would allow you to ditch the enormous amount of dead wood floating around your council.
    With this Brexit would be an ideal means for the government to make those kind of welfare changes. Taking ourself out of the single market is nothing more than sodding self harm. We have an immigration issue that has pushed up numbers and flatlined wages at the bottom end, along with the fact that many people don’t like the changes that have happened in their area of other areas.

    How we manage our welfare system is up to us. Stay in single market and create contributions based welfare eligibility. Enforce rules on free movement of people and actively remove those here for more than threee months without a means to support themselves (as is allowed).


    I am more concerned Brexit will give underperforming schools, hospitals, and councils an opportunity to be s***.
    An excuse to be maybe.
    Sorry that was rather my point
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763
    Anorak said:

    DavidL said:

    Anorak said:

    Rook/Cook partnership inching toward 250. Aside from my personal irritation with the lack of slogging at this stage, it must be demoralising for a field to face the same pair for so very long.

    Plus the run rate of this partnership has just gone over 4 an over. They are hardly taking time out of the game.
    True. I'm going to guess there'll be a declaration at 4:30-5:00.
    Somewhat boringly I agree. I would have preferred 4 so they could make some real progress tonight but Root is cautious.
  • twitter.com/BCE2018/status/1039117896729997312

    Prediction: Labour MPs whose seats are abolished will resign as a protest against Corbyn or antisemitism or Corbyn's antisemitism, on a point of principle.

    Conservative MPs will resign as a protest against Chequers or for a second referendum, on a point of principle.

    ETA the new boundaries report is at https://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Final-recommendations-report.pdf
    The Broxtowe proposals are unchanged, and would lead to most of Anna Soubry's seat being divided into two with bits added on from Nottingham and Hucknall, both of which would be less Tory than the current one because of the additions. Nottingham West and Beeston would be Labour in most years (Beeston has zero Tory borough councillors); Broxtowe & Hucknall pretty marginal and presumably the one AS would try to hold.

    As for JC's constituency being abolished, I suspect he would not have difficulty in getting selection as the Labour candidate anywhere he chose.
    Barnet?
    Nah, that's miles away!
    BTW I was in Hucknall on Saturday, some bicycle race going on and some bands playing. Saw Lord Byron and Ada Lovelace tomb.
  • Labour have a point about reducing MPs but not Ministers, don't they?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    I think he should retire on 12468 test runs.

    Had he honoured Fibonacci with 11235, test history would have been very different (and we might have found a replacement by now).
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    That is quite a poor show
    It isn't.

    1) They were written by different authors, Mike gives us the luxury to write what we like. There's no settled PB view.

    2) Keiran's a very respected pollster, as is Ariel Edwards-Levy, whose tweet thread the first article is based on, is the Polling Editor of the Huffington Post.

    3) Chelyabinsk missed out Keiran's quote which was ' So although this poll clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland, the scale of that shift and how a border poll plays out in practice is unclear.'
    Plus I am sure that I have read some comments below the line on PB that were not entirely respectful of the thread header. It's a free country and a free site for which we should be grateful.
    Well it seems a little poor to me that instead of saying "Remember last weeks header about hypothetical polling..." a lot of people are commenting along the lines of "See I told you Brexit would lead to a united Ireland..." with no reference to the previous header. Chelyabinsk made a good spot in my opinion.
    That is presumably because you disagree with it. As you are free to do. And Chelyabinsk is entitled to point out the inconsistency. The only times I have been disappointed with PB is when argumentative if somewhat intemperate voices have been banned. We have lost some good contributors that way over the years. Disagreements are what keep this site alive.
    Disagree with the claim that Brexit would lead to a united Ireland do you mean? I have no opinion either way, wouldn't claim to have any idea, although I am inclined to agree with the proposition that hypothetical polling shouldn't be trusted too much.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited September 2018

    twitter.com/BCE2018/status/1039117896729997312

    Prediction: Labour MPs whose seats are abolished will resign as a protest against Corbyn or antisemitism or Corbyn's antisemitism, on a point of principle.

    Conservative MPs will resign as a protest against Chequers or for a second referendum, on a point of principle.

    A safe prediction.

    Watch Wales especially where 40 MPs are chasing 29 seats. This is a big, big cull.

    Let’s see what happens to multimillionaire Stephen Kinnock, whose constituency is dismembered. Although he is the darling of the Guardian, he is pretty much reviled in his constituency, as it seems he did not tell the full truth about the private education of his daughter at the original selection meeting for grindingly poor, Brexity Aberavon. He could be the biggest casualty of the cull.

    There are 2 Tory Pembrokeshire MPs fighting for one seat (Crabb & Hart). There are 2 Tory North Walian MPs fighting for one seat (Bebb & Jones). I suspect this is behind the rumblings from Bebb at the weekend.

    There are 4 Labour Cardiff MPs fighting for 3 seats. In North East Wales, there are 5 Labour MPs fighting for 3 seats.

    Incidentally (and possibly importantly), Plaid Cymru could probably be bought on side for the Commons vote if the diminution is accompanied by more powers for the Welsh Assembly. They don’t do too badly out of the proposals, they will probably retain 3 seats and have a chance at Arfon & Anglesey (though Labour are favourites there).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!

    The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.

    Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
    Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.
    tit
    Just got back to my PC to enjoy your response. Nice to see you upholding the reputation of the rapier wit and eloquence of the average leaver
    tit
    Excellent again. I have changed my nickname for you. You are no longer Comical Ali. You will now for ever be known as Alan Two Tits Brooke
    That’s Viscount Two Tits, to you. :D
  • Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!

    The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.

    Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
    Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.
    tit
    Just got back to my PC to enjoy your response. Nice to see you upholding the reputation of the rapier wit and eloquence of the average leaver
    tit
    Excellent again. I have changed my nickname for you. You are no longer Comical Ali. You will now for ever be known as Alan Two Tits Brooke
    I have you down as a dog groomer

    but not in a healthy way
    I am afraid that bit of banter has gone over my head somewhat, Mr Two Tits. Maybe I have underestimated you and I have just been verbally skewered without knowing it
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    RobD said:

    Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!

    The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.

    Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
    Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.
    tit
    Just got back to my PC to enjoy your response. Nice to see you upholding the reputation of the rapier wit and eloquence of the average leaver
    tit
    Excellent again. I have changed my nickname for you. You are no longer Comical Ali. You will now for ever be known as Alan Two Tits Brooke
    That’s Viscount Two Tits, to you. :D
    woof woof
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!

    The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.

    Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
    Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.
    tit
    Just got back to my PC to enjoy your response. Nice to see you upholding the reputation of the rapier wit and eloquence of the average leaver
    tit
    Excellent again. I have changed my nickname for you. You are no longer Comical Ali. You will now for ever be known as Alan Two Tits Brooke
    I have you down as a dog groomer

    but not in a healthy way
    I am afraid that bit of banter has gone over my head somewhat, Mr Two Tits. Maybe I have underestimated you and I have just been verbally skewered without knowing it
    so no denial of your doggy desires ?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    DavidL said:

    Anorak said:

    DavidL said:

    Anorak said:

    Rook/Cook partnership inching toward 250. Aside from my personal irritation with the lack of slogging at this stage, it must be demoralising for a field to face the same pair for so very long.

    Plus the run rate of this partnership has just gone over 4 an over. They are hardly taking time out of the game.
    True. I'm going to guess there'll be a declaration at 4:30-5:00.
    Somewhat boringly I agree. I would have preferred 4 so they could make some real progress tonight but Root is cautious.
    They need to change gear to a 50 over run-rate. Then Twenty20 after tea.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    India look a bit knackered.
  • RobD said:

    Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!

    The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.

    Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
    Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.
    tit
    Just got back to my PC to enjoy your response. Nice to see you upholding the reputation of the rapier wit and eloquence of the average leaver
    tit
    Excellent again. I have changed my nickname for you. You are no longer Comical Ali. You will now for ever be known as Alan Two Tits Brooke
    That’s Viscount Two Tits, to you. :D
    Even better. The real Viscount Alanbrooke, being a military man, would have perhaps been more amused by the reference, though he would have probably referred to Generals Montgomery and Patton as deserving of the "two shits" title
  • NEW THREAD

  • RobD said:

    Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!

    The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.

    Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
    Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.
    tit
    Just got back to my PC to enjoy your response. Nice to see you upholding the reputation of the rapier wit and eloquence of the average leaver
    tit
    Excellent again. I have changed my nickname for you. You are no longer Comical Ali. You will now for ever be known as Alan Two Tits Brooke
    That’s Viscount Two Tits, to you. :D
    woof woof
    https://twitter.com/wooferendum/status/1032251112911458304
  • Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!

    The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.

    Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
    Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.
    tit
    Just got back to my PC to enjoy your response. Nice to see you upholding the reputation of the rapier wit and eloquence of the average leaver
    tit
    Excellent again. I have changed my nickname for you. You are no longer Comical Ali. You will now for ever be known as Alan Two Tits Brooke
    I have you down as a dog groomer

    but not in a healthy way
    I am afraid that bit of banter has gone over my head somewhat, Mr Two Tits. Maybe I have underestimated you and I have just been verbally skewered without knowing it
    so no denial of your doggy desires ?
    Reminds me of the old Jethro joke where he said he asked his wife if he could do it to her doggy fashion and she said she would as long as she didn't have to bark and that they did it in a street where no one would recognise her
  • Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!

    The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.

    Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
    Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.
    tit
    Just got back to my PC to enjoy your response. Nice to see you upholding the reputation of the rapier wit and eloquence of the average leaver
    tit
    Excellent again. I have changed my nickname for you. You are no longer Comical Ali. You will now for ever be known as Alan Two Tits Brooke
    I have you down as a dog groomer

    but not in a healthy way
    I am afraid that bit of banter has gone over my head somewhat, Mr Two Tits. Maybe I have underestimated you and I have just been verbally skewered without knowing it
    so no denial of your doggy desires ?
    Reminds me of the old Jethro joke where he said he asked his wife if he could do it to her doggy fashion and she said she would as long as she didn't have to bark and that they did it in a street where no one would recognise her
    ..but just to disappoint your strange fantasies Mr Two Tits, I have no experience of Caninophilia.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    River Tyne border annoyingly not respected in these new boundaries.
This discussion has been closed.