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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why a united Ireland post Brexit is a real possibility

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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754

    Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!

    The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.

    Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
    Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.
    tit
    Just got back to my PC to enjoy your response. Nice to see you upholding the reputation of the rapier wit and eloquence of the average leaver
    tit
    Excellent again. I have changed my nickname for you. You are no longer Comical Ali. You will now for ever be known as Alan Two Tits Brooke
    I have you down as a dog groomer

    but not in a healthy way
    I am afraid that bit of banter has gone over my head somewhat, Mr Two Tits. Maybe I have underestimated you and I have just been verbally skewered without knowing it
    so no denial of your doggy desires ?
    Reminds me of the old Jethro joke where he said he asked his wife if he could do it to her doggy fashion and she said she would as long as she didn't have to bark and that they did it in a street where no one would recognise her
    ..but just to disappoint your strange fantasies Mr Two Tits, I have no experience of Caninophilia.
    of course not

    since its canophilia
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    RobD said:

    Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!

    The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.

    Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
    Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.
    tit
    Just got back to my PC to enjoy your response. Nice to see you upholding the reputation of the rapier wit and eloquence of the average leaver
    tit
    Excellent again. I have changed my nickname for you. You are no longer Comical Ali. You will now for ever be known as Alan Two Tits Brooke
    That’s Viscount Two Tits, to you. :D
    woof woof
    https://twitter.com/wooferendum/status/1032251112911458304
    It would prove that even dogs are not as barking as 52% of the electorate
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    Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!

    The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.

    Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
    Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.
    tit
    Just got back to my PC to enjoy your response. Nice to see you upholding the reputation of the rapier wit and eloquence of the average leaver
    tit
    Excellent again. I have changed my nickname for you. You are no longer Comical Ali. You will now for ever be known as Alan Two Tits Brooke
    I have you down as a dog groomer

    but not in a healthy way
    I am afraid that bit of banter has gone over my head somewhat, Mr Two Tits. Maybe I have underestimated you and I have just been verbally skewered without knowing it
    so no denial of your doggy desires ?
    Reminds me of the old Jethro joke where he said he asked his wife if he could do it to her doggy fashion and she said she would as long as she didn't have to bark and that they did it in a street where no one would recognise her
    ..but just to disappoint your strange fantasies Mr Two Tits, I have no experience of Caninophilia.
    of course not

    since its canophilia
    you are clearly the expert in this subject
  • Options

    DavidL said:

    It's a free country and a free site for which we should be grateful.

    Well it seems a little poor to me that instead of saying "Remember last weeks header about hypothetical polling..." a lot of people are commenting along the lines of "See I told you Brexit would lead to a united Ireland..." with no reference to the previous header.
    What seemed poorest to me was that the 'words of caution' provided in Kieran's article made no mention whatsoever of the risk of taking hypothetical polling on face value, as highlighted on this very site a mere week before. Even saying that he was prepared to rate hypothetical polling more than other political experts like Mike Smithson- 'I’m very sceptical about such hypothetical polling,' (19 August 2018), and 'The problem here, of course, is that it is all totally hypothetical... this form of polling is very difficult and is akin to the efforts to do voting intention surveys on potential alternative party leaders' (14 February 2018)- would have been nice.

    3) Chelyabinsk missed out Keiran's quote which was ' So although this poll clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland, the scale of that shift and how a border poll plays out in practice is unclear.'

    Right, because the important component of the quote is that this poll doesn't clearly show that Brexit shifts opinion on Irish reunification. It shows us that people are prepared to say that they are more likely to vote for Irish reunification, just as people are prepared to say they are more/less likely to vote for a political party led by X, Y or Z. Drawing the emphasis onto 'the scale of that shift' and 'how a border poll plays out in practice' is a technique frequently adopted by Trump called 'assuming the sale', where you ensure acceptance of a fundamentally flawed premise by focusing on details.

    It should be absolutely no surprise that people are willing to take the opportunity to tell a polling company, completly free of any repercussions, that they're unhappy about Brexit and they're willing to do something dramatic as a result. No doubt, if you'd polled Leave voters after a Remain victory, there would have been a substantial proportion claiming they intended to emigrate. In this case, I'm highly sceptical that Northern Irish voters can accurately predict their responses to the aftermath of a political event that's not yet over.
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