On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
London is certainly different to the rest of the nation, but perhaps not quite as different as you make out. It’s our capital city (of England and of the UK) and doesn’t stand for something wildly different from that. It doesn’t “belong” to any one tribe or form of political opinion.
There are still plenty of Conservatives (and, indeed, even Leavers) there who think London does well from the current Government and are fearful of the alternative.
I like the fact there's a little bobble at the opposite end of most charts which captures the people whose understanding of percentage chance is inverted.
I'm more worried by those parts of the graph which show probabilites of more than 100% or less than 0%.
It's a very literal interpretation of "almost no chance".
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
London is certainly different to the rest of the nation, but perhaps not quite as different as you make out. It’s our capital city (of England and of the UK) and doesn’t stand for something wildly different from that. It doesn’t “belong” to any one tribe or form of political opinion.
There are still plenty of Conservatives (and, indeed, even Leavers) there who think London does well from the current Government and are fearful of the alternative.
26%. That's worse than they got in 1997. Your party has become the herpes of London: disfiguring, embarrassing and not something to be admitted to.
You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?
That sounds very um European so couldn't really work in the new Brexit world...
Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ? Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for. Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
If Govt really can't get Boundary review through then surely they should accept Lab Private Members Bill (currently stalled in Committee) for 650 MPs and a larger variation from quota.
If they kick-off now there is plenty of time before a 2022 GE - current review began early 2016 and ended Sept 2018 - so same timetable would be early 2019 to Sept 2021.
Separate question - can Govt have more than one shot at the vote? ie Even if Commons rejects it, can they simply relay the Statutory Instrument? That is what happened in 1969 / 1970 - Wilson Govt rejected proposals before 1970 GE and the same proposals were then passed afterwards.
If answer is "Yes" it would give Govt a bit more scope.
Time now begins to become 'of the essence' given that this Parliament faces dissolution barely three and a half years from now. I have never quite understood why the current review was not abandoned in the immediate aftermath of the 2017 election - leaving plenty of time for a further review based on 650 seats etc.
You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?
That sounds very um European so couldn't really work in the new Brexit world...
Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ? Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for. Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
To be fair to her, that line has been used many times on here. It appears to be based on a rather odd idea that the Syrian regime, Russia and Iran can be fully trusted to decide on who the bad guys are ...
LOL, are UK or US any better considering we fund many of the bad guys.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
40.1% of Londoners voted to leave. The Tory vote there has plenty of potential upside.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
40.1% of Londoners voted to leave. The Tory vote there has plenty of potential upside.
There's optimism and then there's delusion. The Conservatives offer Londoners nothing except disdain and abuse.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
40.1% of Londoners voted to leave. The Tory vote there has plenty of potential upside.
One of the unexplored aspects of the Brexit vote is that a higher proportion of the ethnic-minority vote voted Leave than one would expect. See the Brexit votes in Newham or Birmingham, for example.
However, the Conservatives didn't seem to gain much in those sorts of places last year.
To be fair to her, that line has been used many times on here. It appears to be based on a rather odd idea that the Syrian regime, Russia and Iran can be fully trusted to decide on who the bad guys are ...
LOL, are UK or US any better considering we fund many of the bad guys.
Well William Hague wasn’t. His arguments for us supporting his democratic alliance which he depicted as only mildly to the right of the Lib Dem’s were fairly unbalanced at the time but look even worse in hindsight.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
40.1% of Londoners voted to leave. The Tory vote there has plenty of potential upside.
There's optimism and then there's delusion. The Conservatives offer Londoners nothing except disdain and abuse.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
40.1% of Londoners voted to leave. The Tory vote there has plenty of potential upside.
There's optimism and then there's delusion. The Conservatives offer Londoners nothing except disdain and abuse.
Nonsense Alastair. The reality is that a very significant minority of your fellow Londoners just don’t agree with you.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
40.1% of Londoners voted to leave. The Tory vote there has plenty of potential upside.
There's optimism and then there's delusion. The Conservatives offer Londoners nothing except disdain and abuse.
What on Earth has possessed you tonight Mr M?
Talk me through the Conservative manifesto for London.
1) We despise those who consider themselves citizens of the world. We consider them citizens of nowhere.
2) All your friends who are EU citizens are to be left dangling while we decide whether or not we're going to remove the residual threat of deporting them.
3) We're not going to build any houses.
4) We're going to slash the budget for the police.
5) We're going to take all your money and shovel it to the yokels who voted for the Brexit we love.
6) Yeah, you hate Brexit and it's probably going to put your jobs and your finances at risk. Deal with it.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
40.1% of Londoners voted to leave. The Tory vote there has plenty of potential upside.
There's optimism and then there's delusion. The Conservatives offer Londoners nothing except disdain and abuse.
Nonsense Alastair. The reality is that a very significant minority of your fellow Londoners just don’t agree with you.
Why do you think the Conservatives' tally is going backwards at present in London then? Or do you think it's just false consciousness?
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
40.1% of Londoners voted to leave. The Tory vote there has plenty of potential upside.
One of the unexplored aspects of the Brexit vote is that a higher proportion of the ethnic-minority vote voted Leave than one would expect. See the Brexit votes in Newham or Birmingham, for example.
However, the Conservatives didn't seem to gain much in those sorts of places last year.
Don’t we see the same on here? Corbyn is certainly in the minority in his party with his views on Europe but he is very far from unique. There are 2 possibilities. The first, most likely, is that for many of these voters the EU is not a priority and there are lots of more important reasons to vote Labour. The second is that they take comfort from Corbyn’s ambiguity on the matter.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
40.1% of Londoners voted to leave. The Tory vote there has plenty of potential upside.
One of the unexplored aspects of the Brexit vote is that a higher proportion of the ethnic-minority vote voted Leave than one would expect. See the Brexit votes in Newham or Birmingham, for example.
However, the Conservatives didn't seem to gain much in those sorts of places last year.
Don’t we see the same on here? Corbyn is certainly in the minority in his party with his views on Europe but he is very far from unique. There are 2 possibilities. The first, most likely, is that for many of these voters the EU is not a priority and there are lots of more important reasons to vote Labour. The second is that they take comfort from Corbyn’s ambiguity on the matter.
I believe your first point is very valid - most voters are from obsessed with Brexit which is far from being the salient issue which many appear to assume.
You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?
That sounds very um European so couldn't really work in the new Brexit world...
Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ? Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for. Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
See my subsequent post
I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
40.1% of Londoners voted to leave. The Tory vote there has plenty of potential upside.
There's optimism and then there's delusion. The Conservatives offer Londoners nothing except disdain and abuse.
Nonsense Alastair. The reality is that a very significant minority of your fellow Londoners just don’t agree with you.
Why do you think the Conservatives' tally is going backwards at present in London then? Or do you think it's just false consciousness?
Brexit is certainly one reason but possibly not even the most important. I think that we are seeing an ever more divided country where the cities are going more and more left wing demanding much higher public spending (not least on their own wages) and the rest of the country is much more small c conservative. This is particularly so where there is a concentration of higher education establishments, an area where London is very strong. It is easy but false to blame austerity on Brexit. It is even easier to blame it on the present government.
Very thin stuff, they are laughing at Trump saying "I don't think I would want to be a terrorist right now" because the ambush was a success; whether it "left 4 US soldiers dead" is rather beside the point. And I can understand secretly taping this kind of meeting for the sake preserving evidence for a court or an impeachment hearing, but not just to give it or sell it to msnbc.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
40.1% of Londoners voted to leave. The Tory vote there has plenty of potential upside.
There's optimism and then there's delusion. The Conservatives offer Londoners nothing except disdain and abuse.
Nonsense Alastair. The reality is that a very significant minority of your fellow Londoners just don’t agree with you.
Why do you think the Conservatives' tally is going backwards at present in London then? Or do you think it's just false consciousness?
Brexit is certainly one reason but possibly not even the most important. I think that we are seeing an ever more divided country where the cities are going more and more left wing demanding much higher public spending (not least on their own wages) and the rest of the country is much more small c conservative. This is particularly so where there is a concentration of higher education establishments, an area where London is very strong. It is easy but false to blame austerity on Brexit. It is even easier to blame it on the present government.
Except Labour is down too. The London public has completely tuned out the governing party that is fleecing them for the benefit of its mad hobbyhorse, even when turning away from the main opposition.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
40.1% of Londoners voted to leave. The Tory vote there has plenty of potential upside.
There's optimism and then there's delusion. The Conservatives offer Londoners nothing except disdain and abuse.
Nonsense Alastair. The reality is that a very significant minority of your fellow Londoners just don’t agree with you.
Why do you think the Conservatives' tally is going backwards at present in London then? Or do you think it's just false consciousness?
Brexit is certainly one reason but possibly not even the most important. I think that we are seeing an ever more divided country where the cities are going more and more left wing demanding much higher public spending (not least on their own wages) and the rest of the country is much more small c conservative. This is particularly so where there is a concentration of higher education establishments, an area where London is very strong. It is easy but false to blame austerity on Brexit. It is even easier to blame it on the present government.
Except Labour is down too. The London public has completely tuned out the governing party that is fleecing them for the benefit of its mad hobbyhorse, even when turning away from the main opposition.
See my comments on ambiguity and bigger priorities. The priorities in London are housing, student debt, congestion and the environment. What are either of the main parties offering to address these? Thin gruel at best.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
40.1% of Londoners voted to leave. The Tory vote there has plenty of potential upside.
There's optimism and then there's delusion. The Conservatives offer Londoners nothing except disdain and abuse.
Nonsense Alastair. The reality is that a very significant minority of your fellow Londoners just don’t agree with you.
Why do you think the Conservatives' tally is going backwards at present in London then? Or do you think it's just false consciousness?
Brexit is certainly one reason but possibly not even the most important. I think that we are seeing an ever more divided country where the cities are going more and more left wing demanding much higher public spending (not least on their own wages) and the rest of the country is much more small c conservative. This is particularly so where there is a concentration of higher education establishments, an area where London is very strong. It is easy but false to blame austerity on Brexit. It is even easier to blame it on the present government.
Except Labour is down too. The London public has completely tuned out the governing party that is fleecing them for the benefit of its mad hobbyhorse, even when turning away from the main opposition.
Bit harsh to call Brexit a Tory "hobbyhorse". Do you think another government having to implement the #peoplesvote of 2016 would have a different priority? It's not as if anyone with any power in the Conservative Party has ever wanted to Leave the EU
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
London is certainly different to the rest of the nation, but perhaps not quite as different as you make out. It’s our capital city (of England and of the UK) and doesn’t stand for something wildly different from that. It doesn’t “belong” to any one tribe or form of political opinion.
There are still plenty of Conservatives (and, indeed, even Leavers) there who think London does well from the current Government and are fearful of the alternative.
Jesus! You obviously don't live and work in London. The Tories are in free-fall here and have been for a while. The Tories have nothing to offer the educated, sophisticated, young and ethnically diverse population of London.
Expect the Tories to be sub 20% at the next GE my deluded right-wing friend!
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
London is certainly different to the rest of the nation, but perhaps not quite as different as you make out. It’s our capital city (of England and of the UK) and doesn’t stand for something wildly different from that. It doesn’t “belong” to any one tribe or form of political opinion.
There are still plenty of Conservatives (and, indeed, even Leavers) there who think London does well from the current Government and are fearful of the alternative.
26%. That's worse than they got in 1997. Your party has become the herpes of London: disfiguring, embarrassing and not something to be admitted to.
Even Cameron did not win London in 2015 when he won an overall majority.
London is now probably Labour's safest region in the UK after the North East of England (and even that is a bit more Tory post Brexit).
In 1992 London was one of the key swing regions, now it is solid Labour and the Tories tend to do best in the Outer Suburbs rather than the heart of the city (indeed only 2 inner London seats, Chelsea and Fulham and Putney are now Tory)
I cannot see any of the 3 Tories being high profile enough or charismatic enough to beat Khan but on these falling numbers for the Mayor if Alan Sugar ran as an independent he could beat Khan
Is that based on evidence or HYUFD instinct?
Sugar is one of the most recognisable figures in the country after the Apprentice (which as we know has launched political careers in the past), has backed both the Tories and Labour in the past and has cross parry appeal and could run a pro business, tough on crime campaign. He also is no fan of Khan and could easily fund his own campaign
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
London is certainly different to the rest of the nation, but perhaps not quite as different as you make out. It’s our capital city (of England and of the UK) and doesn’t stand for something wildly different from that. It doesn’t “belong” to any one tribe or form of political opinion.
There are still plenty of Conservatives (and, indeed, even Leavers) there who think London does well from the current Government and are fearful of the alternative.
Jesus! You obviously don't live and work in London. The Tories are in free-fall here and have been for a while. The Tories have nothing to offer the educated, sophisticated, young and ethnically diverse population of London.
Expect the Tories to be sub 20% at the next GE my deluded right-wing friend!
Umm. I work in London. I’m there every day and lots of my friends are Londoners.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
40.1% of Londoners voted to leave. The Tory vote there has plenty of potential upside.
There's optimism and then there's delusion. The Conservatives offer Londoners nothing except disdain and abuse.
Nonsense Alastair. The reality is that a very significant minority of your fellow Londoners just don’t agree with you.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
London is certainly different to the rest of the nation, but perhaps not quite as different as you make out. It’s our capital city (of England and of the UK) and doesn’t stand for something wildly different from that. It doesn’t “belong” to any one tribe or form of political opinion.
There are still plenty of Conservatives (and, indeed, even Leavers) there who think London does well from the current Government and are fearful of the alternative.
Indeed - people who live in bubbles often have difficulty in understanding how folk think.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
London is certainly different to the rest of the nation, but perhaps not quite as different as you make out. It’s our capital city (of England and of the UK) and doesn’t stand for something wildly different from that. It doesn’t “belong” to any one tribe or form of political opinion.
There are still plenty of Conservatives (and, indeed, even Leavers) there who think London does well from the current Government and are fearful of the alternative.
Indeed - people who live in bubbles often have difficulty in understanding how folk think.
The bubble round here comprises those who don’t notice that the Conservatives are polling well below their 1997 levels yet still think they are competitive.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
London is certainly different to the rest of the nation, but perhaps not quite as different as you make out. It’s our capital city (of England and of the UK) and doesn’t stand for something wildly different from that. It doesn’t “belong” to any one tribe or form of political opinion.
There are still plenty of Conservatives (and, indeed, even Leavers) there who think London does well from the current Government and are fearful of the alternative.
Indeed - people who live in bubbles often have difficulty in understanding how folk think.
The bubble round here comprises those who don’t notice that the Conservatives are polling well below their 1997 levels yet still think they are competitive.
On that we agree. The Tories have no chance of winning the Mayoralty, none at all. Kahn is nailed on unless Labour pulls itself apart, which is possible. Even then I don't see a Tory coming through the middle.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
London is certainly different to the rest of the nation, but perhaps not quite as different as you make out. It’s our capital city (of England and of the UK) and doesn’t stand for something wildly different from that. It doesn’t “belong” to any one tribe or form of political opinion.
There are still plenty of Conservatives (and, indeed, even Leavers) there who think London does well from the current Government and are fearful of the alternative.
Jesus! You obviously don't live and work in London. The Tories are in free-fall here and have been for a while. The Tories have nothing to offer the educated, sophisticated, young and ethnically diverse population of London.
Expect the Tories to be sub 20% at the next GE my deluded right-wing friend!
Umm. I work in London. I’m there every day and lots of my friends are Londoners.
Muppet.
I love the retaliation muppet...rather endearing..
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
40.1% of Londoners voted to leave. The Tory vote there has plenty of potential upside.
There's optimism and then there's delusion. The Conservatives offer Londoners nothing except disdain and abuse.
Nonsense Alastair. The reality is that a very significant minority of your fellow Londoners just don’t agree with you.
Precisely so.
The leave vote in London (1.5m) exceeded the winning margin that Leave had across the country as a whole (1.3m).
Wooahh! Nothing convicts like your own words. And those Americans love their armed forces.
As @Ishmael_Z has pointed out he is not laughing at the dead he is laughing at his own point that he wouldn't like to be a terrorists right now. A joke any squaddie or general or member of the western world might make.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
40.1% of Londoners voted to leave. The Tory vote there has plenty of potential upside.
There's optimism and then there's delusion. The Conservatives offer Londoners nothing except disdain and abuse.
Nonsense Alastair. The reality is that a very significant minority of your fellow Londoners just don’t agree with you.
Precisely so.
The leave vote in London (1.5m) exceeded the winning margin that Leave had across the country as a whole (1.3m).
And now London is turning against its sponsors sharply. You’ve witnessed the collapse of the Conservatives in Scotland, a collapse they are only just coming out of and still remain beyond the pale for many Scots. We could well be witnessing the same sort of collapse of the Conservatives in London. They offer nothing for Londoners so why should this be surprising?
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
London is certainly different to the rest of the nation, but perhaps not quite as different as you make out. It’s our capital city (of England and of the UK) and doesn’t stand for something wildly different from that. It doesn’t “belong” to any one tribe or form of political opinion.
There are still plenty of Conservatives (and, indeed, even Leavers) there who think London does well from the current Government and are fearful of the alternative.
Jesus! You obviously don't live and work in London. The Tories are in free-fall here and have been for a while. The Tories have nothing to offer the educated, sophisticated, young and ethnically diverse population of London.
Expect the Tories to be sub 20% at the next GE my deluded right-wing friend!
Umm. I work in London. I’m there every day and lots of my friends are Londoners.
Muppet.
What is it with these Brexit right-wing lunatic types on here?
I am just saying what quite a few moderate Tories have been saying for years. London is moving away from the Tories and continues to do so. The Tories offer NOTHING, NADA, ZILCH to Londoners and it shows in elections and polling.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
London is certainly different to the rest of the nation, but perhaps not quite as different as you make out. It’s our capital city (of England and of the UK) and doesn’t stand for something wildly different from that. It doesn’t “belong” to any one tribe or form of political opinion.
There are still plenty of Conservatives (and, indeed, even Leavers) there who think London does well from the current Government and are fearful of the alternative.
Jesus! You obviously don't live and work in London. The Tories are in free-fall here and have been for a while. The Tories have nothing to offer the educated, sophisticated, young and ethnically diverse population of London.
Expect the Tories to be sub 20% at the next GE my deluded right-wing friend!
and then the young and hip all move out to the boondocks
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
London is certainly different to the rest of the nation, but perhaps not quite as different as you make out. It’s our capital city (of England and of the UK) and doesn’t stand for something wildly different from that. It doesn’t “belong” to any one tribe or form of political opinion.
There are still plenty of Conservatives (and, indeed, even Leavers) there who think London does well from the current Government and are fearful of the alternative.
Jesus! You obviously don't live and work in London. The Tories are in free-fall here and have been for a while. The Tories have nothing to offer the educated, sophisticated, young and ethnically diverse population of London.
Expect the Tories to be sub 20% at the next GE my deluded right-wing friend!
Umm. I work in London. I’m there every day and lots of my friends are Londoners.
Muppet.
What is it with these Brexit right-wing lunatic types on here?
I am just saying what quite a few moderate Tories have been saying for years. London is moving away from the Tories and continues to do so. The Tories offer NOTHING, NADA, ZILCH to Londoners and it shows in elections and polling.
Wake Up!
The structural problem is that London is the wealth creator and the political problem is that the Tories have nothing to offer the wealth creators.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
40.1% of Londoners voted to leave. The Tory vote there has plenty of potential upside.
There's optimism and then there's delusion. The Conservatives offer Londoners nothing except disdain and abuse.
Nonsense Alastair. The reality is that a very significant minority of your fellow Londoners just don’t agree with you.
Precisely so.
The leave vote in London (1.5m) exceeded the winning margin that Leave had across the country as a whole (1.3m).
And now London is turning against its sponsors sharply. You’ve witnessed the collapse of the Conservatives in Scotland, a collapse they are only just coming out of and still remain beyond the pale for many Scots. We could well be witnessing the same sort of collapse of the Conservatives in London. They offer nothing for Londoners so why should this be surprising?
What is your evidence that Brexit is the cause of this apart from your own obsession? I think (and its just my opinion) fairly or unfairly Grenfell and Windrush probably both had a bigger impact.
The economic effects of Brexit have been continuously exaggerated to the point of absurdity. Only today we had confirmation that our economy is growing more rapidly as Brexit approaches while the deficit falls and even the balance of payments improves.
The true cost of Brexit, which I acknowledge, is that other issues that should have been addressed are being neglected as the government struggles with intransigent leavers and absurd fantasies of chaos and collapse. Whether this government would have produced meaningful solutions even without the Brexit distraction is of course one of the unknown unknowns.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
London is certainly different to the rest of the nation, but perhaps not quite as different as you make out. It’s our capital city (of England and of the UK) and doesn’t stand for something wildly different from that. It doesn’t “belong” to any one tribe or form of political opinion.
There are still plenty of Conservatives (and, indeed, even Leavers) there who think London does well from the current Government and are fearful of the alternative.
Jesus! You obviously don't live and work in London. The Tories are in free-fall here and have been for a while. The Tories have nothing to offer the educated, sophisticated, young and ethnically diverse population of London.
Expect the Tories to be sub 20% at the next GE my deluded right-wing friend!
Umm. I work in London. I’m there every day and lots of my friends are Londoners.
Muppet.
What is it with these Brexit right-wing lunatic types on here?
I am just saying what quite a few moderate Tories have been saying for years. London is moving away from the Tories and continues to do so. The Tories offer NOTHING, NADA, ZILCH to Londoners and it shows in elections and polling.
Wake Up!
The structural problem is that London is the wealth creator and the political problem is that the Tories have nothing to offer the wealth creators.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
London is certainly different to the rest of the nation, but perhaps not quite as different as you make out. It’s our capital city (of England and of the UK) and doesn’t stand for something wildly different from that. It doesn’t “belong” to any one tribe or form of political opinion.
There are still plenty of Conservatives (and, indeed, even Leavers) there who think London does well from the current Government and are fearful of the alternative.
Indeed - people who live in bubbles often have difficulty in understanding how folk think.
The bubble round here comprises those who don’t notice that the Conservatives are polling well below their 1997 levels yet still think they are competitive.
Yawn - Brexit is a factor in the Tory decline but if the national polls are correct they must be doing much better in other parts of the country, It all depends where the marginals are , as ever. Re London - big difference between the inner and outer boroughs and not clear how many seats might even be lost on recent and current polling. In last year's local elections the conservatives 'regained' Battersea for example.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
40.1% of Londoners voted to leave. The Tory vote there has plenty of potential upside.
There's optimism and then there's delusion. The Conservatives offer Londoners nothing except disdain and abuse.
Nonsense Alastair. The reality is that a very significant minority of your fellow Londoners just don’t agree with you.
Precisely so.
The leave vote in London (1.5m) exceeded the winning margin that Leave had across the country as a whole (1.3m).
I'm trying my best to work out what possible narrative you can be divining by comparing those two numbers but I'm failing
I find it amusing how people feel they can act like there's no leavers in London or no Tories there just because they're a minority. If anyone did that with a more visible minority they'd be considered extremist or insane.
How would anyone here react if someone came on this thread and made out like there are no Muslims in London? No black people? There are more Leavers in London than Muslims AFAIK.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
London is certainly different to the rest of the nation, but perhaps not quite as different as you make out. It’s our capital city (of England and of the UK) and doesn’t stand for something wildly different from that. It doesn’t “belong” to any one tribe or form of political opinion.
There are still plenty of Conservatives (and, indeed, even Leavers) there who think London does well from the current Government and are fearful of the alternative.
Jesus! You obviously don't live and work in London. The Tories are in free-fall here and have been for a while. The Tories have nothing to offer the educated, sophisticated, young and ethnically diverse population of London.
Expect the Tories to be sub 20% at the next GE my deluded right-wing friend!
Umm. I work in London. I’m there every day and lots of my friends are Londoners.
Muppet.
What is it with these Brexit right-wing lunatic types on here?
I am just saying what quite a few moderate Tories have been saying for years. London is moving away from the Tories and continues to do so. The Tories offer NOTHING, NADA, ZILCH to Londoners and it shows in elections and polling.
Wake Up!
No, part of what you said was "You obviously don't live and work in London" to someone who does. Infantile name-calling doesn't work as well as a brief apology would.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
40.1% of Londoners voted to leave. The Tory vote there has plenty of potential upside.
There's optimism and then there's delusion. The Conservatives offer Londoners nothing except disdain and abuse.
Nonsense Alastair. The reality is that a very significant minority of your fellow Londoners just don’t agree with you.
Precisely so.
The leave vote in London (1.5m) exceeded the winning margin that Leave had across the country as a whole (1.3m).
I'm trying my best to work out what possible narrative you can be divining by comparing those two numbers but I'm failing
That if Alastair's vision of a London united against Brexit had any validity Leave would have lost.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
London is certainly different to the rest of the nation, but perhaps not quite as different as you make out. It’s our capital city (of England and of the UK) and doesn’t stand for something wildly different from that. It doesn’t “belong” to any one tribe or form of political opinion.
There are still plenty of Conservatives (and, indeed, even Leavers) there who think London does well from the current Government and are fearful of the alternative.
Indeed - people who live in bubbles often have difficulty in understanding how folk think.
The bubble round here comprises those who don’t notice that the Conservatives are polling well below their 1997 levels yet still think they are competitive.
Yawn - Brexit is a factor in the Tory decline but if the national polls are correct they must be doing much better in other parts of the country, It all depends where the marginals are , as ever. Re London - big difference between the inner and outer boroughs and not clear how many seats might even be lost on recent and current polling. In last year's local elections the conservatives 'regained' Battersea for example.
PS you are in the bubble.
I like living in bubbles....liberal one's of course...I like to know that I can venture out and encounter few Tories
Brexit is certainly one reason but possibly not even the most important. I think that we are seeing an ever more divided country where the cities are going more and more left wing demanding much higher public spending (not least on their own wages) and the rest of the country is much more small c conservative.
Up to a point.
Corbynite Labour's core support is London and its immediate orbit. But that's the only nailed-on certainty right now.
There is no real affection for Corbyn in the Midlands cities - Birmingham voted in a Tory mayor, after all. There is no real affection for May in the Shires, which is the one thing you can take from the Lib Dems' drip-drip of local election gains.
The Midland/Northern cities continue to poll for Labour, and the Shires continue to poll for the Conservatives, because that's what they've always done and there's no coherent alternative. That could change.
Britain right now is very susceptible to a "big idea", a la Thatcher or Blair (or Macron). Scotland 2015 demonstrated that it can happen. No-one has yet caught the public's imagination in England or Wales, but it's very plausible, and I suspect Boris Johnson knows that.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
London is certainly different to the rest of the nation, but perhaps not quite as different as you make out. It’s our capital city (of England and of the UK) and doesn’t stand for something wildly different from that. It doesn’t “belong” to any one tribe or form of political opinion.
There are still plenty of Conservatives (and, indeed, even Leavers) there who think London does well from the current Government and are fearful of the alternative.
Indeed - people who live in bubbles often have difficulty in understanding how folk think.
The bubble round here comprises those who don’t notice that the Conservatives are polling well below their 1997 levels yet still think they are competitive.
Yawn - Brexit is a factor in the Tory decline but if the national polls are correct they must be doing much better in other parts of the country, It all depends where the marginals are , as ever. Re London - big difference between the inner and outer boroughs and not clear how many seats might even be lost on recent and current polling. In last year's local elections the conservatives 'regained' Battersea for example.
PS you are in the bubble.
I like living in bubbles....liberal one's of course...I like to know that I can venture out and encounter few Tories
Ah the nasty party rears its ugly head. time to watch UC methinks.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
40.1% of Londoners voted to leave. The Tory vote there has plenty of potential upside.
One of the unexplored aspects of the Brexit vote is that a higher proportion of the ethnic-minority vote voted Leave than one would expect. See the Brexit votes in Newham or Birmingham, for example.
However, the Conservatives didn't seem to gain much in those sorts of places last year.
I did post on this in the run up to June 16 in my anecdata reports. Several of our Indian and Philipino staff were voting Brexit. Some of the reasons are the same as other demographics, but there was an additional one.
In particular they wanted leveling of the playing field on visas, objecting to taking six months and much money to get appropriate visas and professional certification, while Greek, Spanish and Portuguese staff could walk straight in after a language test. Others thought it would be easier to get relatives in. To be fair, on this they are probably correct as non EU immigration has increased to make up for our losses of EU staff.
On the other hand they are concerned that the devaluation of Sterling has adversely impacted on the value of the remittances they send back to support family.
Why would the Tories be expected to be effective in the spreading London, for want of a better description, slums? Places that were suburban and fairly desirable a generation ago are now just an extension of the inner city. Ghastly HMO's , family homes turned into pile'em up bedsits by BTL landlords. Increasing problems with drugs and crime.
Apparently thinking this is genuinely a good thing and wanting to spread such joys to the rest of the UK is expressed in the term “comfortable with modern Britain”. It’s code for wishing the rest of the uk was like London.
Brexit is certainly one reason but possibly not even the most important. I think that we are seeing an ever more divided country where the cities are going more and more left wing demanding much higher public spending (not least on their own wages) and the rest of the country is much more small c conservative.
Up to a point.
Corbynite Labour's core support is London and its immediate orbit. But that's the only nailed-on certainty right now.
There is no real affection for Corbyn in the Midlands cities - Birmingham voted in a Tory mayor, after all. There is no real affection for May in the Shires, which is the one thing you can take from the Lib Dems' drip-drip of local election gains.
The Midland/Northern cities continue to vote Labour, and the Shires continue to vote Conservative, because that's what they've always done and there's no coherent alternative. That could change.
Britain right now is very susceptible to a "big idea", a la Thatcher or Blair (or Macron). Scotland 2015 demonstrated that it can happen. No-one has yet caught the public's imagination in England or Wales, but it's very plausible, and I suspect Boris Johnson knows that.
I wouldn't disagree with that. All of our major parties disappoint in their different ways. The approval ratings of all of the leaders are abysmal, even for cynical Brits. No one seems to have a clear idea of the way ahead. The soil does seem fertile for new ideas. Where they might come from I am a lot less sure.
26%. That's worse than they got in 1997. Your party has become the herpes of London: disfiguring, embarrassing and not something to be admitted to.
More people are admitting to supporting the Tories than any party other than Labour (herpes is rarely second favourite option from a long list). Meanwhile, if you are correct the proportion actually supporting them must be well in excess of the stated 26% given the supposed massive taboo about admitting to supporting them.
I find it amusing how people feel they can act like there's no leavers in London or no Tories there just because they're a minority. If anyone did that with a more visible minority they'd be considered extremist or insane.
How would anyone here react if someone came on this thread and made out like there are no Muslims in London? No black people? There are more Leavers in London than Muslims AFAIK.
Wow. Are people really still doing the "how come I can make fun of somebody for being ginger but I can't use ethnic slurs" argument in 2018?
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
40.1% of Londoners voted to leave. The Tory vote there has plenty of potential upside.
There's optimism and then there's delusion. The Conservatives offer Londoners nothing except disdain and abuse.
Nonsense Alastair. The reality is that a very significant minority of your fellow Londoners just don’t agree with you.
Precisely so.
The leave vote in London (1.5m) exceeded the winning margin that Leave had across the country as a whole (1.3m).
And now London is turning against its sponsors sharply. You’ve witnessed the collapse of the Conservatives in Scotland, a collapse they are only just coming out of and still remain beyond the pale for many Scots. We could well be witnessing the same sort of collapse of the Conservatives in London. They offer nothing for Londoners so why should this be surprising?
What is your evidence that Brexit is the cause of this apart from your own obsession? I think (and its just my opinion) fairly or unfairly Grenfell and Windrush probably both had a bigger impact.
The economic effects of Brexit have been continuously exaggerated to the point of absurdity. Only today we had confirmation that our economy is growing more rapidly as Brexit approaches while the deficit falls and even the balance of payments improves.
The true cost of Brexit, which I acknowledge, is that other issues that should have been addressed are being neglected as the government struggles with intransigent leavers and absurd fantasies of chaos and collapse. Whether this government would have produced meaningful solutions even without the Brexit distraction is of course one of the unknown unknowns.
Leavers have been telling me for two years that I’m wrong, that I’m obsessed, that the Conservatives will tap into this latent support for Leave in London. Meanwhile, the Conservative ratings steadily spiral downwards. Brexit and the manner of its implementation is the signifier, as the poll tax was in Scotland, that the Conservatives despise London.
It's also amusing that London and Londoners are typically characterised as though it is all Richmond .
The 48% that are voting Labour are largely doing it because they don't have a lot of money, rely on the state to a fairly high degree and live in places that are a real mess. Brexit is not very high on any of their agendas and with or without it, they don't vote Tory.
To a degree, but we know that the Socio Economic gradient in voting by party is pretty slight now.
There is however a very large age related correlation with party voting, and the demographic age spectrum in all of our cities, particularly those with universities, compared with the Shires and coastal fringes is very marked.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
London is certainly different to the rest of the nation, but perhaps not quite as different as you make out. It’s our capital city (of England and of the UK) and doesn’t stand for something wildly different from that. It doesn’t “belong” to any one tribe or form of political opinion.
There are still plenty of Conservatives (and, indeed, even Leavers) there who think London does well from the current Government and are fearful of the alternative.
Indeed - people who live in bubbles often have difficulty in understanding how folk think.
The bubble round here comprises those who don’t notice that the Conservatives are polling well below their 1997 levels yet still think they are competitive.
Yawn - Brexit is a factor in the Tory decline but if the national polls are correct they must be doing much better in other parts of the country, It all depends where the marginals are , as ever. Re London - big difference between the inner and outer boroughs and not clear how many seats might even be lost on recent and current polling. In last year's local elections the conservatives 'regained' Battersea for example.
PS you are in the bubble.
I like living in bubbles....liberal one's of course...I like to know that I can venture out and encounter few Tories
Ah the nasty party rears its ugly head. time to watch UC methinks.
Why would the Tories be expected to be effective in the spreading London, for want of a better description, slums? Places that were suburban and fairly desirable a generation ago are now just an extension of the inner city. Ghastly HMO's , family homes turned into pile'em up bedsits by BTL landlords. Increasing problems with drugs and crime.
Ummm: in most of London, there are net conversions being restored to single family homes. Almost all the flats coming on in London are newbuilds right now.
I cannot see any of the 3 Tories being high profile enough or charismatic enough to beat Khan but on these falling numbers for the Mayor if Alan Sugar ran as an independent he could beat Khan
Is that based on evidence or HYUFD instinct?
Sugar is one of the most recognisable figures in the country after the Apprentice (which as we know has launched political careers in the past), has backed both the Tories and Labour in the past and has cross parry appeal and could run a pro business, tough on crime campaign. He also is no fan of Khan and could easily fund his own campaign
Plus of course Sugar backed Remain and remains sceptical of Brexit
Why would the Tories be expected to be effective in the spreading London, for want of a better description, slums? Places that were suburban and fairly desirable a generation ago are now just an extension of the inner city. Ghastly HMO's , family homes turned into pile'em up bedsits by BTL landlords. Increasing problems with drugs and crime.
Ummm: in most of London, there are net conversions being restored to single family homes. Almost all the flats coming on in London are newbuilds right now.
The last time there were more conversions to flats (rather thna vice versa) in Greater London was 2003. Which is rather longer ago than I would expected.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
London is certainly different to the rest of the nation, but perhaps not quite as different as you make out. It’s our capital city (of England and of the UK) and doesn’t stand for something wildly different from that. It doesn’t “belong” to any one tribe or form of political opinion.
There are still plenty of Conservatives (and, indeed, even Leavers) there who think London does well from the current Government and are fearful of the alternative.
Jesus! You obviously don't live and work in London. The Tories are in free-fall here and have been for a while. The Tories have nothing to offer the educated, sophisticated, young and ethnically diverse population of London.
Expect the Tories to be sub 20% at the next GE my deluded right-wing friend!
Umm. I work in London. I’m there every day and lots of my friends are Londoners.
Muppet.
What is it with these Brexit right-wing lunatic types on here?
I am just saying what quite a few moderate Tories have been saying for years. London is moving away from the Tories and continues to do so. The Tories offer NOTHING, NADA, ZILCH to Londoners and it shows in elections and polling.
Wake Up!
The structural problem is that London is the wealth creator and the political problem is that the Tories have nothing to offer the wealth creators.
There is no real affection for Corbyn in the Midlands cities - Birmingham voted in a Tory mayor, after all.
I wouldn’t read too much into that. Street wasn’t a normal Tory candidate and only won because of huge votes in middle class areas like Solihull. Birmingham itself is still a very Labour city.
I was however suprised by Walsall voting for Street.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
London is certainly different to the rest of the nation, but perhaps not quite as different as you make out. It’s our capital city (of England and of the UK) and doesn’t stand for something wildly different from that. It doesn’t “belong” to any one tribe or form of political opinion.
There are still plenty of Conservatives (and, indeed, even Leavers) there who think London does well from the current Government and are fearful of the alternative.
Jesus! You obviously don't live and work in London. The Tories are in free-fall here and have been for a while. The Tories have nothing to offer the educated, sophisticated, young and ethnically diverse population of London.
Expect the Tories to be sub 20% at the next GE my deluded right-wing friend!
Umm. I work in London. I’m there every day and lots of my friends are Londoners.
Muppet.
What is it with these Brexit right-wing lunatic types on here?
I am just saying what quite a few moderate Tories have been saying for years. London is moving away from the Tories and continues to do so. The Tories offer NOTHING, NADA, ZILCH to Londoners and it shows in elections and polling.
Wake Up!
The structural problem is that London is the wealth creator and the political problem is that the Tories have nothing to offer the wealth creators.
I find it amusing how people feel they can act like there's no leavers in London or no Tories there just because they're a minority. If anyone did that with a more visible minority they'd be considered extremist or insane.
How would anyone here react if someone came on this thread and made out like there are no Muslims in London? No black people? There are more Leavers in London than Muslims AFAIK.
Wow. Are people really still doing the "how come I can make fun of somebody for being ginger but I can't use ethnic slurs" argument in 2018?
WTF!? No that was not what I said at all!
I'm saying its utterly moronic to imply that 40% of Londoners don't exist just because they're a minority.
I'm saying that if you open your eyes you can tell there are of course Muslim or Black Londoners but Leavers aren't visible in the same way.
In a group of 5 random Londoners who voted in the referendum, 2 will have voted Leave but people make out like London is a leave-free-zone. That's stupid and false.
How your mind went from that to ethnic slurs is beyond me.
There is no real affection for Corbyn in the Midlands cities - Birmingham voted in a Tory mayor, after all.
I wouldn’t read too much into that. Street wasn’t a normal Tory candidate and only won because of huge votes in middle class areas like Solihull. Birmingham itself is still a very Labour city.
I was however suprised by Walsall voting for Street.
EDIT: Oh and the Labour candidate was crap.
Yes to the last bit. I have relatives in Brum. They were of that opinion as were many of their friends. Street was clearly more likely to get things done.
I find it amusing how people feel they can act like there's no leavers in London or no Tories there just because they're a minority. If anyone did that with a more visible minority they'd be considered extremist or insane.
How would anyone here react if someone came on this thread and made out like there are no Muslims in London? No black people? There are more Leavers in London than Muslims AFAIK.
Wow. Are people really still doing the "how come I can make fun of somebody for being ginger but I can't use ethnic slurs" argument in 2018?
WTF!? No that was not what I said at all!
I'm saying its utterly moronic to imply that 40% of Londoners don't exist just because they're a minority.
I'm saying that if you open your eyes you can tell there are of course Muslim or Black Londoners but Leavers aren't visible in the same way.
In a group of 5 random Londoners who voted in the referendum, 2 will have voted Leave but people make out like London is a leave-free-zone. That's stupid and false.
How your mind went from that to ethnic slurs is beyond me.
Worth noting that the counter is also true, about a third of Hartlepool or Boston voted Remain. This was a cultural split in the country rather than a geographic one.
Just as Labour has played a blinder on Brexit, so the ERG should keep their gobs shut. They are not the government. It is up to May and her cabinet to deliver Brexit.
I find it amusing how people feel they can act like there's no leavers in London or no Tories there just because they're a minority. If anyone did that with a more visible minority they'd be considered extremist or insane.
How would anyone here react if someone came on this thread and made out like there are no Muslims in London? No black people? There are more Leavers in London than Muslims AFAIK.
Wow. Are people really still doing the "how come I can make fun of somebody for being ginger but I can't use ethnic slurs" argument in 2018?
WTF!? No that was not what I said at all!
I'm saying its utterly moronic to imply that 40% of Londoners don't exist just because they're a minority.
I'm saying that if you open your eyes you can tell there are of course Muslim or Black Londoners but Leavers aren't visible in the same way.
In a group of 5 random Londoners who voted in the referendum, 2 will have voted Leave but people make out like London is a leave-free-zone. That's stupid and false.
How your mind went from that to ethnic slurs is beyond me.
Worth noting that the counter is also true, about a third of Hartlepool or Boston voted Remain. This was a cultural split in the country rather than a geographic one.
You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?
That sounds very um European so couldn't really work in the new Brexit world...
Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ? Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for. Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
See my subsequent post
I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
On the face of it, I was sceptical, but you're quite correct. The average expected numbers of MPs from SSV for 2017 would appear to be: Con - 268 Lab - 264 LD - 46 SNP - 22 UKIP - 12 Green - 10 DUP - 7 Sinn Fein - 5 Plaid Cymru - 4 SDLP - 2 Alliance - 2 UUP - 2 Spkr - 1 Independents and Minor Parties - 5
These things are not easy to fix to a particular time, but it is possible that the true beginning of the self-destruction of the Corbyn project as the revolution eats itself may be in future be dated to today. The day when Canterbury's only ever Lab MP is threatened with censure and possible deselection because she objected to anti-semitism.
the polls highlight once again the slow death of the SPD
I suppose at some point it would make sense for the SPD and Left to merge - they have significant differences, to be sure, but their separation in a shrinking market is making less and less sense.
I remember seeing a poll where the Dems were ahead in Indiana, and possibly Tennessee ! I am like +£3 GOP/+£36 Dems on the Senate right now. Wherever the votes are, the numbers look dire for Trump right now. Of course this doesn't mean he isn't getting back in in 2020 but I really think the Senate is definitely in play now.
On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.
40.1% of Londoners voted to leave. The Tory vote there has plenty of potential upside.
There's optimism and then there's delusion. The Conservatives offer Londoners nothing except disdain and abuse.
Nonsense Alastair. The reality is that a very significant minority of your fellow Londoners just don’t agree with you.
Precisely so.
The leave vote in London (1.5m) exceeded the winning margin that Leave had across the country as a whole (1.3m).
And now London is turning against its sponsors sharply. You’ve witnessed the collapse of the Conservatives in Scotland, a collapse they are only just coming out of and still remain beyond the pale for many Scots. We could well be witnessing the same sort of collapse of the Conservatives in London. They offer nothing for Londoners so why should this be surprising?
What is your evidence that Brexit is the cause of this apart from your own obsession? I think (and its just my opinion) fairly or unfairly Grenfell and Windrush probably both had a bigger impact.
The economic effects of Brexit have been continuously exaggerated to the point of absurdity. Only today we had confirmation that our economy is growing more rapidly as Brexit approaches while the deficit falls and even the balance of payments improves.
The true cost of Brexit, which I acknowledge, is that other issues that should have been addressed are being neglected as the government struggles with intransigent leavers and absurd fantasies of chaos and collapse. Whether this government would have produced meaningful solutions even without the Brexit distraction is of course one of the unknown unknowns.
Indeed.
Brexit has had an effect, but very far from an extreme effect.
The main one has been a fall in the pound and a deferral of investment, both of which I expect to rapidly recover once a deal is done.
I remember seeing a poll where the Dems were ahead in Indiana, and possibly Tennessee ! I am like +£3 GOP/+£36 Dems on the Senate right now. Wherever the votes are, the numbers look dire for Trump right now. Of course this doesn't mean he isn't getting back in in 2020 but I really think the Senate is definitely in play now.
Comments
There are still plenty of Conservatives (and, indeed, even Leavers) there who think London does well from the current Government and are fearful of the alternative.
Plus Butler is being thick.
However, the Conservatives didn't seem to gain much in those sorts of places last year.
1) We despise those who consider themselves citizens of the world. We consider them citizens of nowhere.
2) All your friends who are EU citizens are to be left dangling while we decide whether or not we're going to remove the residual threat of deporting them.
3) We're not going to build any houses.
4) We're going to slash the budget for the police.
5) We're going to take all your money and shovel it to the yokels who voted for the Brexit we love.
6) Yeah, you hate Brexit and it's probably going to put your jobs and your finances at risk. Deal with it.
Very thin stuff, they are laughing at Trump saying "I don't think I would want to be a terrorist right now" because the ambush was a success; whether it "left 4 US soldiers dead" is rather beside the point. And I can understand secretly taping this kind of meeting for the sake preserving evidence for a court or an impeachment hearing, but not just to give it or sell it to msnbc.
Expect the Tories to be sub 20% at the next GE my deluded right-wing friend!
London is now probably Labour's safest region in the UK after the North East of England (and even that is a bit more Tory post Brexit).
In 1992 London was one of the key swing regions, now it is solid Labour and the Tories tend to do best in the Outer Suburbs rather than the heart of the city (indeed only 2 inner London seats, Chelsea and Fulham and Putney are now Tory)
Muppet.
Obviously his personal mandate isn't big enough
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1039227039616778242
I am just saying what quite a few moderate Tories have been saying for years. London is moving away from the Tories and continues to do so. The Tories offer NOTHING, NADA, ZILCH to Londoners and it shows in elections and polling.
Wake Up!
The economic effects of Brexit have been continuously exaggerated to the point of absurdity. Only today we had confirmation that our economy is growing more rapidly as Brexit approaches while the deficit falls and even the balance of payments improves.
The true cost of Brexit, which I acknowledge, is that other issues that should have been addressed are being neglected as the government struggles with intransigent leavers and absurd fantasies of chaos and collapse. Whether this government would have produced meaningful solutions even without the Brexit distraction is of course one of the unknown unknowns.
PS you are in the bubble.
How would anyone here react if someone came on this thread and made out like there are no Muslims in London? No black people? There are more Leavers in London than Muslims AFAIK.
"Muppet" covers it pretty well, I think.
Corbynite Labour's core support is London and its immediate orbit. But that's the only nailed-on certainty right now.
There is no real affection for Corbyn in the Midlands cities - Birmingham voted in a Tory mayor, after all. There is no real affection for May in the Shires, which is the one thing you can take from the Lib Dems' drip-drip of local election gains.
The Midland/Northern cities continue to poll for Labour, and the Shires continue to poll for the Conservatives, because that's what they've always done and there's no coherent alternative. That could change.
Britain right now is very susceptible to a "big idea", a la Thatcher or Blair (or Macron). Scotland 2015 demonstrated that it can happen. No-one has yet caught the public's imagination in England or Wales, but it's very plausible, and I suspect Boris Johnson knows that.
In particular they wanted leveling of the playing field on visas, objecting to taking six months and much money to get appropriate visas and professional certification, while Greek, Spanish and Portuguese staff could walk straight in after a language test. Others thought it would be easier to get relatives in. To be fair, on this they are probably correct as non EU immigration has increased to make up for our losses of EU staff.
On the other hand they are concerned that the devaluation of Sterling has adversely impacted on the value of the remittances they send back to support family.
"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
1h1 hour ago
Germany, INSA poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 28% (-1)
AfD-EFDD: 18% (+1)
SPD-S&D: 17% (+1)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 14%
LINKE-LEFT: 11% (+1)
FDP-ALDE: 9% (-1)
Field work: 7/09/18 – 10/09/18
Sample size: 2,042"
"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
9h9 hours ago
Germany, Civey poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 28% (-3)
SPD-S&D: 17% (-1)
AfD-EFDD: 16% (+2)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 15%
LINKE-LEFT: 10%
FDP-ALDE: 8%
Field work: 3/09/18 – 10/09/18
Sample size: 11,832"
There is however a very large age related correlation with party voting, and the demographic age spectrum in all of our cities, particularly those with universities, compared with the Shires and coastal fringes is very marked.
Thought not.
I was however suprised by Walsall voting for Street.
EDIT: Oh and the Labour candidate was crap.
who else will win ?
I'm saying its utterly moronic to imply that 40% of Londoners don't exist just because they're a minority.
I'm saying that if you open your eyes you can tell there are of course Muslim or Black Londoners but Leavers aren't visible in the same way.
In a group of 5 random Londoners who voted in the referendum, 2 will have voted Leave but people make out like London is a leave-free-zone. That's stupid and false.
How your mind went from that to ethnic slurs is beyond me.
Con - 268
Lab - 264
LD - 46
SNP - 22
UKIP - 12
Green - 10
DUP - 7
Sinn Fein - 5
Plaid Cymru - 4
SDLP - 2
Alliance - 2
UUP - 2
Spkr - 1
Independents and Minor Parties - 5
Split, for the love of God.
Of course this doesn't mean he isn't getting back in in 2020 but I really think the Senate is definitely in play now.
So here's an idea - don't introduce new boundaries by Statutory Instrument, but INSTEAD:
Introduce a new Bill to Parliament which:
1) Changes max number of Ministers, number who can be paid etc
2) Implements Boundary Commission reports
It's also much harder for Con MPs to vote against a Bill at 2nd / 3rd Reading than to oppose an SI.
Govt can even accept amendments as long as Bill does implement boundaries.
Brexit has had an effect, but very far from an extreme effect.
The main one has been a fall in the pound and a deferral of investment, both of which I expect to rapidly recover once a deal is done.