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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BONUS PB/Polling Matters podcast: What do the boundary commiss

SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited September 11 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BONUS PB/Polling Matters podcast: What do the boundary commission proposals mean?

On a bonus episode of the Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Professor Ron Johnston from the University of Bristol to discuss the Boundary Commission’s proposals this week for reforming parliamentary constituencies in Westminster. Ron explains how it’s all done, the potential implications if the current proposals are adopted and what happens next.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,882
    edited September 11
    I think that's first like Jimmy.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,769
    Second like Remain.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,943

    FPT
    Apologies if it has been linked to already but yet another set of good economic news today. Wages rising by 2.9%, now 0.5% ahead of inflation and unemployment falling yet again to a 40 year low. Add on the growth spurt reported yesterday and things look set pretty fair for the remainder of the year now.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45481485
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 734
    edited September 11
    Third division like Sunderland.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,943
    Meanwhile its all happy families in the EU: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45477025

    And we've still got that idiot Farage winning friends and influencing people in the toy town Parliament. Presumably needs the attendance money.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,769
    Good podcast, liking the shorter format.

    I still believe that a few Corbynites are going to find that a conveniently-arranged Islington Friends of Palestine dinner on the evening of the vote will be more important than voting down the new boundaries, opening the door for compulsory reselections.

    The Tories are going to have the mother of all three line whips on this vote, with big carrots and big sticks from the whips’ office.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,683
    The Boundary changes mean that Labour are going to get unlucky It had been working in their favour. Now it won't, Tough luck.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 44,899
    DavidL said:
    Not enough clearly
  • DavidL said:
    That poll does indicate a second referendum would turn down remain
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,905

    The Boundary changes mean that Labour are going to get unlucky It had been working in their favour. Now it won't, Tough luck.

    In years past, around the 50’s, it worked in favour of the Tories.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,769
    HYUFD said:

    ttps://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1039557421214183424?s=20

    So No Deal and Hard Brexit is 42, and Soft Brexit, Remain or join the Euro is 45, with 12% undecided.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 44,899
    edited September 11

    DavidL said:
    That poll does indicate a second referendum would turn down remain
    Indeed, Hard Brexit (ie Canada style FTA) + No Deal + EEA Soft Brexit = 52%.

    Remain + Join Euro = 37%
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,895
    Swedish update: there are 200K votes now being counted, mostly from Swedes overseas whose postal votes arrived at the last moment. The centre-right Centre Party will recover a seat from the Sweden Democrats (who seem unlikely to have lots of votes from Swedish expats) if they make a net gain of just 7 votes, reducing the centre-left lead over the centre-right back to 1. The social democrats will lose one to the centre-right if they are a net 2000ish down. In the past, overseas votes have been slightly more centre-rightish (businesspeople working abroad etc.) so it's quite possible.
  • Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    ttps://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1039557421214183424?s=20

    So No Deal and Hard Brexit is 42, and Soft Brexit, Remain or join the Euro is 45, with 12% undecided.
    Not sure I agree with that, soft Brexit is leaving. So 52/36 to leaving in some form
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 44,899
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    ttps://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1039557421214183424?s=20

    So No Deal and Hard Brexit is 42, and Soft Brexit, Remain or join the Euro is 45, with 12% undecided.
    Soft Brexiteers are clearly now the key swing voters as they were at the EU referendum
  • HYUFD said:
    43% Must leave 36% Must Stay 21% Shrug shoulders
  • HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:
    That poll does indicate a second referendum would turn down remain
    Indeed, Hard Brexit (ie Canada style FTA) + No Deal + EEA Soft Brexit = 52%.

    Remain + Join Euro = 37%
    36% remain surely
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,038
    DavidL said:


    FPT
    Apologies if it has been linked to already but yet another set of good economic news today. Wages rising by 2.9%, now 0.5% ahead of inflation and unemployment falling yet again to a 40 year low. Add on the growth spurt reported yesterday and things look set pretty fair for the remainder of the year now.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45481485

    We are also seeing some inventory build right now, which is supporting the economy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 44,899

    Swedish update: there are 200K votes now being counted, mostly from Swedes overseas whose postal votes arrived at the last moment. The centre-right Centre Party will recover a seat from the Sweden Democrats (who seem unlikely to have lots of votes from Swedish expats) if they make a net gain of just 7 votes, reducing the centre-left lead over the centre-right back to 1. The social democrats will lose one to the centre-right if they are a net 2000ish down. In the past, overseas votes have been slightly more centre-rightish (businesspeople working abroad etc.) so it's quite possible.

    I think the most likely option is as you said earlier, a Social Democrat PM still but having to form a Grand Coalition with the Moderates. The Centre Party would oppose a Moderates and Swedish Democrats deal
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,943
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:


    FPT
    Apologies if it has been linked to already but yet another set of good economic news today. Wages rising by 2.9%, now 0.5% ahead of inflation and unemployment falling yet again to a 40 year low. Add on the growth spurt reported yesterday and things look set pretty fair for the remainder of the year now.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45481485

    We are also seeing some inventory build right now, which is supporting the economy.
    And construction at a record high. I am expecting the second half of the year to be much better than the first.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,899
    DavidL said:
    A very odd result.
  • HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    ttps://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1039557421214183424?s=20

    So No Deal and Hard Brexit is 42, and Soft Brexit, Remain or join the Euro is 45, with 12% undecided.
    Soft Brexiteers are clearly now the key swing voters as they were at the EU referendum
    There are a lot of, "don't really care, just shut up about it" voters that will exist in the mushy centre.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,820
    HYUFD said:
    First those aren't genuine alternatives since "join euro" is only possible as an add on to Remain; secondly the terms aren't defined (notably hard & soft brexit); thirdly it isn't clear whether people are asked to vote from a "We have to start from where we are now" standpoint vs a blue skies/if I had my time again/ if a second referendum were a possibility standpoint. All in all a simply terrible poll.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,899
    Re: that poll - if it is any way accurate it would appear the voters just want it done and hang the consequences. Extraordinary.
  • DavidL said:


    FPT
    Apologies if it has been linked to already but yet another set of good economic news today. Wages rising by 2.9%, now 0.5% ahead of inflation and unemployment falling yet again to a 40 year low. Add on the growth spurt reported yesterday and things look set pretty fair for the remainder of the year now.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45481485

    With vacancies at another all time high and redundancies at an all time low its likely to stay that way for at least the next few months.

    The redundancy levels are perhaps the most remarkable of the employment stats.

    From May 1995 to June 2014 they was not a single month where they were below 100k, then we had three sub 100k months in 2014, another in 2015, none in 2016, three again in 2017 and no less than five of the last six months have been below 100k.

    It shows what a minor effect all the retail and restaurant redundancies announcements earlier in the year had in the real world compared with in the media bubble.
  • felix said:

    Re: that poll - if it is any way accurate it would appear the voters just want it done and hang the consequences. Extraordinary.

    My concern is how those polled know the differences other than leave or remain
  • thecommissionerthecommissioner Posts: 57
    edited September 11
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:


    FPT
    Apologies if it has been linked to already but yet another set of good economic news today. Wages rising by 2.9%, now 0.5% ahead of inflation and unemployment falling yet again to a 40 year low. Add on the growth spurt reported yesterday and things look set pretty fair for the remainder of the year now.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45481485

    We are also seeing some inventory build right now, which is supporting the economy.
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:


    FPT
    Apologies if it has been linked to already but yet another set of good economic news today. Wages rising by 2.9%, now 0.5% ahead of inflation and unemployment falling yet again to a 40 year low. Add on the growth spurt reported yesterday and things look set pretty fair for the remainder of the year now.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45481485

    We are also seeing some inventory build right now, which is supporting the economy.
    The propensity to stockpile was predicted a long time ago.
    I suspect the public haven't gone into that mode yet, but were this to drag on, they will.
    That would probably mean the economy moving strongly in Q1 2019 before falling back. Is it inconceivable that a combination of stockpiling up to Q1 plus a 10% increase in the value of sterling could actually cause a recessionary quarter or more from Q2 if there is a deal?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,943
    edited September 11
    Good podcast, much better length. Did I understand the academic to say that the Electoral Commission are not given any electoral data to do their work? That seems absolutely crazy. Surely the intention, within the rules, should be to create as many marginal seats as possible so that we get decisive governments when someone wins the popular vote. The Professor also complained that the number of marginal seats has been falling steadily for 50 years. Surely it should be the job of the EC, within limits, to reverse that trend?
  • My thanks to AM for the Swedish election tip - a nice profit for me and I'm sure for many other PBers.

    Also my thanks to Gardenwalker for linking to this:

    https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Brexit-and-the-British-Growth-Model.pdf

    I can't recommend this strongly enough, a really interesting and easy to understand analysis of the imbalances in the UK economy and its effect on the country.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,905

    DavidL said:


    FPT
    Apologies if it has been linked to already but yet another set of good economic news today. Wages rising by 2.9%, now 0.5% ahead of inflation and unemployment falling yet again to a 40 year low. Add on the growth spurt reported yesterday and things look set pretty fair for the remainder of the year now.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45481485

    With vacancies at another all time high and redundancies at an all time low its likely to stay that way for at least the next few months.

    The redundancy levels are perhaps the most remarkable of the employment stats.

    From May 1995 to June 2014 they was not a single month where they were below 100k, then we had three sub 100k months in 2014, another in 2015, none in 2016, three again in 2017 and no less than five of the last six months have been below 100k.

    It shows what a minor effect all the retail and restaurant redundancies announcements earlier in the year had in the real world compared with in the media bubble.
    Lot of vacancies in the caring and health sectors though.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,943

    DavidL said:


    FPT
    Apologies if it has been linked to already but yet another set of good economic news today. Wages rising by 2.9%, now 0.5% ahead of inflation and unemployment falling yet again to a 40 year low. Add on the growth spurt reported yesterday and things look set pretty fair for the remainder of the year now.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45481485

    With vacancies at another all time high and redundancies at an all time low its likely to stay that way for at least the next few months.

    The redundancy levels are perhaps the most remarkable of the employment stats.

    From May 1995 to June 2014 they was not a single month where they were below 100k, then we had three sub 100k months in 2014, another in 2015, none in 2016, three again in 2017 and no less than five of the last six months have been below 100k.

    It shows what a minor effect all the retail and restaurant redundancies announcements earlier in the year had in the real world compared with in the media bubble.
    We are clearly, finally, seeing tightness in the labour market which is driving wages higher and increasing vacancies (and, presumably, skills shortages). Its almost as if we were seeing a reduction in open ended immigration already.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 16,076
    edited September 11
    England back to being poor. Peak Southgate at World Cup Semi.

    See he will not commit to England

    Never mind Danny Welbeck is in the team
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 2,534
    edited September 11
    Those are awful questions.

    The second suggests to me that the people asking are some of the daftest on the planet.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,943

    England back to being poor. Peak Southgate at World Cup Semi.

    See he will not commit to England

    The reality is that the semi final was more than a tad flattering. Every time they came against a decent team they lost. They had an incredibly easy run to the semis. The match against Spain was a wake up call. England will not have an effective team at international level until they can find some creative midfielders. Not sure what Southgate can do about that.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 16,076
    edited September 11
    First half - England ball possession v Switzerland at home

    35 - 65
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,895
    HYUFD said:

    Swedish update: there are 200K votes now being counted, mostly from Swedes overseas whose postal votes arrived at the last moment. The centre-right Centre Party will recover a seat from the Sweden Democrats (who seem unlikely to have lots of votes from Swedish expats) if they make a net gain of just 7 votes, reducing the centre-left lead over the centre-right back to 1. The social democrats will lose one to the centre-right if they are a net 2000ish down. In the past, overseas votes have been slightly more centre-rightish (businesspeople working abroad etc.) so it's quite possible.

    I think the most likely option is as you said earlier, a Social Democrat PM still but having to form a Grand Coalition with the Moderates. The Centre Party would oppose a Moderates and Swedish Democrats deal
    I'm starting to think a Moderate coalition including Greens might be the most likely, but I'm not really an expert on Sweden even though I can read Swedish and have often spent time there. Should have added that the final result will only be on Friday.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,905
    Scott_P said:
    Worse than what happened to Puerto Rica?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,943
    Scott_P said:
    I've seen estimates of up to 3 feet of rain if the hurricane gets backed up against continental weather patterns and gets stuck. That is seriously scary.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 1,177
    DavidL said:

    Good podcast, much better length. Did I understand the academic to say that the Electoral Commission are not given any electoral data to do their work? That seems absolutely crazy. Surely the intention, within the rules, should be to create as many marginal seats as possible so that we get decisive governments when someone wins the popular vote. The Professor also complained that the number of marginal seats has been falling steadily for 50 years. Surely it should be the job of the EC, within limits, to reverse that trend?

    Alternatively, we could change to PR, so that every vote counts.
    NZ did.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:


    FPT
    Apologies if it has been linked to already but yet another set of good economic news today. Wages rising by 2.9%, now 0.5% ahead of inflation and unemployment falling yet again to a 40 year low. Add on the growth spurt reported yesterday and things look set pretty fair for the remainder of the year now.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45481485

    With vacancies at another all time high and redundancies at an all time low its likely to stay that way for at least the next few months.

    The redundancy levels are perhaps the most remarkable of the employment stats.

    From May 1995 to June 2014 they was not a single month where they were below 100k, then we had three sub 100k months in 2014, another in 2015, none in 2016, three again in 2017 and no less than five of the last six months have been below 100k.

    It shows what a minor effect all the retail and restaurant redundancies announcements earlier in the year had in the real world compared with in the media bubble.
    We are clearly, finally, seeing tightness in the labour market which is driving wages higher and increasing vacancies (and, presumably, skills shortages). Its almost as if we were seeing a reduction in open ended immigration already.
    And acting as an incentive to a long overdue increase in capital investment and productivity.

    One thing I'd like to see some research done on is the number of Giro Jims in the unemployed numbers.

    With redundancies rates so low and vacancies rates so high there must be large numbers of people who are stuck in the unemployment numbers and aren't looking to work.

    With unemployment low throughout the country (and highest in cities) we don't have the structural unemployment problems in former coalfields etc as in previous decades.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 19,350
    Scott_P said:
    You mean he didn't say it would blow bigly?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 38,378

    Worse than what happened to Puerto Rica?

  • thecommissionerthecommissioner Posts: 57
    edited September 11
    There are many close-to-unemployable people in the unemployed count.

    People with health or age issues; people whose basic skills are not good enough; people with the kind of criminal history that makes them undesirable to the vast majority of employers.
  • Can anyone imagine the day Trump goes.

    The US and the World will have the biggest party ever
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 44,899

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:
    That poll does indicate a second referendum would turn down remain
    Indeed, Hard Brexit (ie Canada style FTA) + No Deal + EEA Soft Brexit = 52%.

    Remain + Join Euro = 37%
    36% remain surely
    Sorry, yes 36%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 44,899
    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:
    First those aren't genuine alternatives since "join euro" is only possible as an add on to Remain; secondly the terms aren't defined (notably hard & soft brexit); thirdly it isn't clear whether people are asked to vote from a "We have to start from where we are now" standpoint vs a blue skies/if I had my time again/ if a second referendum were a possibility standpoint. All in all a simply terrible poll.
    Actually it is the most interesting poll on Brexit we have had so far as it gives every realistic conceivable option for our future relationship with the EU, from joining the Euro, to Remain as we were to Norway style soft Brexit, Canada style hard Brexit and No Deal
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,683

    There are many close-to-unemployable people in the unemployed count.

    People with health or age issues; people whose basic skills are not good enough; people with the kind of criminal history that makes them undesirable to the vast majority of employers.

    In my life, I have come across people who are so IQ challenged, its difficult to comprehend how they function on a daily basis.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,671
    edited September 11

    First half - England ball possession v Switzerland at home

    35 - 65

    But as they say its not how much you've got but what you do with it that counts.

    Shots
    England 7
    Swiss 5

    Shots on target
    England 4
    Swiss 2

    Goals
    England 0
    Swiss 0
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 44,899

    HYUFD said:

    Swedish update: there are 200K votes now being counted, mostly from Swedes overseas whose postal votes arrived at the last moment. The centre-right Centre Party will recover a seat from the Sweden Democrats (who seem unlikely to have lots of votes from Swedish expats) if they make a net gain of just 7 votes, reducing the centre-left lead over the centre-right back to 1. The social democrats will lose one to the centre-right if they are a net 2000ish down. In the past, overseas votes have been slightly more centre-rightish (businesspeople working abroad etc.) so it's quite possible.

    I think the most likely option is as you said earlier, a Social Democrat PM still but having to form a Grand Coalition with the Moderates. The Centre Party would oppose a Moderates and Swedish Democrats deal
    I'm starting to think a Moderate coalition including Greens might be the most likely, but I'm not really an expert on Sweden even though I can read Swedish and have often spent time there. Should have added that the final result will only be on Friday.
    The Social Democrats will expect to be part of the Government given they were largest party and if they are the Greens are not
  • Can anyone imagine the day Trump goes.

    The US and the World will have the biggest party ever

    Do you think Trump is wrong to try to stop the Chinese stealing technology from western companies?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 44,899

    First half - England ball possession v Switzerland at home

    35 - 65

    But as they say its not how much you've got but what you do with it that counts.

    Shots
    England 7
    Swiss 5

    Shots on target
    England 4
    Swiss 2

    Goals
    England 0
    Swiss 0
    Plus an England match in a competition even I had not heard of until this week and which is not televised on any of the main channels is hardly the same as the World Cup
  • TomsToms Posts: 1,591
    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    I've seen estimates of up to 3 feet of rain if the hurricane gets backed up against continental weather patterns and gets stuck. That is seriously scary.
    Everything "under" Trump is the biggest, don't ya know?

    In the ancient epic for the Gilgamesh flood myth they built a cubical ark.

    But to my mind the best flood story is "Alfred's Ark" by the great and magic Jack Vance.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,943

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:


    FPT
    Apologies if it has been linked to already but yet another set of good economic news today. Wages rising by 2.9%, now 0.5% ahead of inflation and unemployment falling yet again to a 40 year low. Add on the growth spurt reported yesterday and things look set pretty fair for the remainder of the year now.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45481485

    With vacancies at another all time high and redundancies at an all time low its likely to stay that way for at least the next few months.

    The redundancy levels are perhaps the most remarkable of the employment stats.

    From May 1995 to June 2014 they was not a single month where they were below 100k, then we had three sub 100k months in 2014, another in 2015, none in 2016, three again in 2017 and no less than five of the last six months have been below 100k.

    It shows what a minor effect all the retail and restaurant redundancies announcements earlier in the year had in the real world compared with in the media bubble.
    We are clearly, finally, seeing tightness in the labour market which is driving wages higher and increasing vacancies (and, presumably, skills shortages). Its almost as if we were seeing a reduction in open ended immigration already.
    And acting as an incentive to a long overdue increase in capital investment and productivity.

    One thing I'd like to see some research done on is the number of Giro Jims in the unemployed numbers.

    With redundancies rates so low and vacancies rates so high there must be large numbers of people who are stuck in the unemployment numbers and aren't looking to work.

    With unemployment low throughout the country (and highest in cities) we don't have the structural unemployment problems in former coalfields etc as in previous decades.
    Long term and youth unemployment are both substantially down. It is much harder to hide in the crowd when the crowd is rapidly shrinking. But there is so much too do. As the article linked to downthread that I am still reading points out we have a dangerous reliance on consumption and credit and very, very uneven division of growth. So much to do. We really, really need to get a deal on Brexit in the next few months and then start concentrating on the real problems that the current very good figures are masking.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,943
    England are not the only country suffering a reality check. Spain 5 Croatia nil. Puts England being outplayed by them into perspective somewhat.
  • There are many close-to-unemployable people in the unemployed count.

    People with health or age issues; people whose basic skills are not good enough; people with the kind of criminal history that makes them undesirable to the vast majority of employers.

    We really need the unemployed stats to be split between:

    Proper unemployed
    Unemployable
    Layabouts
  • Can anyone imagine the day Trump goes.

    The US and the World will have the biggest party ever

    Do you think Trump is wrong to try to stop the Chinese stealing technology from western companies?
    Trump is a disaster for the US and the rest of us
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 16,076
    edited September 11
    England better and Rashford scores 1 - 0
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,276

    There are many close-to-unemployable people in the unemployed count.

    People with health or age issues; people whose basic skills are not good enough; people with the kind of criminal history that makes them undesirable to the vast majority of employers.

    In my life, I have come across people who are so IQ challenged, its difficult to comprehend how they function on a daily basis.
    I have many friends with severe learning difficulties and are cared for in residential homes. I've often wondered whether such people are counted in unemployment stats - does anyone know?

    Good evening, everyone.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 44,899
    DavidL said:

    England are not the only country suffering a reality check. Spain 5 Croatia nil. Puts England being outplayed by them into perspective somewhat.

    England lost 2 1 to Spain on Saturday and lost to Croatia in the World Cup semi final, so an improvement now given we also currently lead Switzerland?
  • HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    England are not the only country suffering a reality check. Spain 5 Croatia nil. Puts England being outplayed by them into perspective somewhat.

    England lost 2 1 to Spain on Saturday and lost to Croatia in the World Cup semi final, so an improvement now given we also currently lead Switzerland?
    First half they were very poor. Not convinced by them
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,943

    England better and Rashford scores 1 - 0

    I wish he would start scoring for United.
  • DavidL said:

    England better and Rashford scores 1 - 0

    I wish he would start scoring for United.
    Rashford instead of the ponderous Lukaku would be an improvement
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,074
    I note the clocks have gone back in the graphic, to Tim Farron and a certain famous footballer as party leaders.

    Ah, those good old days...
  • thecommissionerthecommissioner Posts: 57
    edited September 11
    AnneJGP said:

    There are many close-to-unemployable people in the unemployed count.

    People with health or age issues; people whose basic skills are not good enough; people with the kind of criminal history that makes them undesirable to the vast majority of employers.

    In my life, I have come across people who are so IQ challenged, its difficult to comprehend how they function on a daily basis.
    I have many friends with severe learning difficulties and are cared for in residential homes. I've often wondered whether such people are counted in unemployment stats - does anyone know?

    Good evening, everyone.
    I would imagine, from your description, that most would be classified as economically inactive due to disability, but if they choose to make themselves available for work that's another matter.
    If the workforce is approximately 40m, it only takes 1 in 50 to equal 800,000 people.

    Only 1 in 50 need misdemeanours on their CV, some kind of behavioural issue, an inability to speak English etc to make them "hard to help" for the authorities.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,642
    AnneJGP said:

    There are many close-to-unemployable people in the unemployed count.

    People with health or age issues; people whose basic skills are not good enough; people with the kind of criminal history that makes them undesirable to the vast majority of employers.

    In my life, I have come across people who are so IQ challenged, its difficult to comprehend how they function on a daily basis.
    I have many friends with severe learning difficulties and are cared for in residential homes. I've often wondered whether such people are counted in unemployment stats - does anyone know?

    Good evening, everyone.
    Good evening AnneGJP.
    To count, people must be employable, over 16 and actively seeking work.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,009

    felix said:

    Re: that poll - if it is any way accurate it would appear the voters just want it done and hang the consequences. Extraordinary.

    My concern is how those polled know the differences other than leave or remain
    Stupid people. Why on Earth do we let them vote at all?
  • So Marcus Rashford has scored as many goals for England in four days as Raheem Sterling has in seven years.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,252
    edited September 11
    geoffw said:

    AnneJGP said:

    There are many close-to-unemployable people in the unemployed count.

    People with health or age issues; people whose basic skills are not good enough; people with the kind of criminal history that makes them undesirable to the vast majority of employers.

    In my life, I have come across people who are so IQ challenged, its difficult to comprehend how they function on a daily basis.
    I have many friends with severe learning difficulties and are cared for in residential homes. I've often wondered whether such people are counted in unemployment stats - does anyone know?

    Good evening, everyone.
    Good evening AnneGJP.
    To count, people must be employable, over 16 and actively seeking work.
    What happens if they only meet two of the three? I'm thinking of Boris here - he's over 16 and clearly actively seeking a job, but...
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,642
    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

    AnneJGP said:

    There are many close-to-unemployable people in the unemployed count.

    People with health or age issues; people whose basic skills are not good enough; people with the kind of criminal history that makes them undesirable to the vast majority of employers.

    In my life, I have come across people who are so IQ challenged, its difficult to comprehend how they function on a daily basis.
    I have many friends with severe learning difficulties and are cared for in residential homes. I've often wondered whether such people are counted in unemployment stats - does anyone know?

    Good evening, everyone.
    Good evening AnneGJP.
    To count, people must be employable, over 16 and actively seeking work.
    What happens if they only meet two of the three? I'm thinking of Boris here - he's over 16 and clearly actively seeking a job, but...
    Very funny.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 44,899

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    England are not the only country suffering a reality check. Spain 5 Croatia nil. Puts England being outplayed by them into perspective somewhat.

    England lost 2 1 to Spain on Saturday and lost to Croatia in the World Cup semi final, so an improvement now given we also currently lead Switzerland?
    First half they were very poor. Not convinced by them
    Given the next World Cup is 4 years away and the next European Championships 2 years away as I said their perfomances in this tournament are of little real significance
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,642
    Scott_P said:
    I would like to see/hear what prompted that.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 21,574
    DavidL said:
    This poll requires some interpretation to account for people are really indicating with these choices:

    NO DEAL 13 = Futile nihilistic gesture followed by joining the Euro
    HARD BREXIT 30 = Futile intergenerational division followed by joining the Euro
    SOFT BREXIT 9 = Status quo
    REMAIN 29 = Status quo
    JOIN EURO 7 = Join the Euro
    DK 12 = Status quo

    In total that gives us:

    Remain on current terms: 50
    Join the Euro: 50

    The country really is split right down the middle...
  • geoffw said:

    Scott_P said:
    I would like to see/hear what prompted that.
    I have no idea but it is a gift to those who oppose them. Would expect it to be used to good effect
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 44,899

    DavidL said:
    This poll requires some interpretation to account for people are really indicating with these choices:

    NO DEAL 13 = Futile nihilistic gesture followed by joining the Euro
    HARD BREXIT 30 = Futile intergenerational division followed by joining the Euro
    SOFT BREXIT 9 = Status quo
    REMAIN 29 = Status quo
    JOIN EURO 7 = Join the Euro
    DK 12 = Status quo

    In total that gives us:

    Remain on current terms: 50
    Join the Euro: 50

    The country really is split right down the middle...
    Only you could interpret support for a Canada FTA style Brexit as support for joining the Euro
  • stodgestodge Posts: 4,215
    DavidL said:


    Long term and youth unemployment are both substantially down. It is much harder to hide in the crowd when the crowd is rapidly shrinking. But there is so much too do. As the article linked to downthread that I am still reading points out we have a dangerous reliance on consumption and credit and very, very uneven division of growth. So much to do. We really, really need to get a deal on Brexit in the next few months and then start concentrating on the real problems that the current very good figures are masking.

    As far as "youth unemployment" is concerned, 783,000 young people are considered NEETs - Not in Education, Employment or Training. Of those, 37% are unemployed and 63% are economically inactive.

    https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN06705

    Changes to the way the unemployed are measured make comparisons of figures meaningless. We have more economically inactive people than before and the conditions attached to registering as unemployed are much more stringent than 30 years ago..

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,074
    Scott_P said:
    The tale of NHS vacancies is a familiar one.

    What could cause so many to vote with their feet?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    England are not the only country suffering a reality check. Spain 5 Croatia nil. Puts England being outplayed by them into perspective somewhat.

    England lost 2 1 to Spain on Saturday and lost to Croatia in the World Cup semi final, so an improvement now given we also currently lead Switzerland?
    First half they were very poor. Not convinced by them
    Given the next World Cup is 4 years away and the next European Championships 2 years away as I said their perfomances in this tournament are of little real significance
    So footballers just turn up every 2 or 4 years and turn it on at the time.

    I watched George Best throughout his career and he turned it on each time he played over years. It is called talent and England are short of real talent
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,252
    edited September 11

    DavidL said:
    This poll requires some interpretation to account for people are really indicating with these choices:

    NO DEAL 13 = Futile nihilistic gesture followed by joining the Euro
    HARD BREXIT 30 = Futile intergenerational division followed by joining the Euro
    SOFT BREXIT 9 = Status quo
    REMAIN 29 = Status quo
    JOIN EURO 7 = Join the Euro
    DK 12 = Status quo

    In total that gives us:

    Remain on current terms: 50
    Join the Euro: 50

    The country really is split right down the middle...
    That's the most ingenious mathematics I've seen since a young Midshipman in HMS Royal Sovereign proved 'Napoleon Bonaparte' added up to 666 and therefore was the devil in disguise.

    Edit - I should clarify I did not have the opportunity to check his calculations in person. You'll have to ask JackW for that.
  • DavidL said:
    This poll requires some interpretation to account for people are really indicating with these choices:

    NO DEAL 13 = Futile nihilistic gesture followed by joining the Euro
    HARD BREXIT 30 = Futile intergenerational division followed by joining the Euro
    SOFT BREXIT 9 = Status quo
    REMAIN 29 = Status quo
    JOIN EURO 7 = Join the Euro
    DK 12 = Status quo

    In total that gives us:

    Remain on current terms: 50
    Join the Euro: 50

    The country really is split right down the middle...
    Well I seen some partisan remarks about polls in my time but that takes the biscuit.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 21,574

    DavidL said:
    This poll requires some interpretation to account for people are really indicating with these choices:

    NO DEAL 13 = Futile nihilistic gesture followed by joining the Euro
    HARD BREXIT 30 = Futile intergenerational division followed by joining the Euro
    SOFT BREXIT 9 = Status quo
    REMAIN 29 = Status quo
    JOIN EURO 7 = Join the Euro
    DK 12 = Status quo

    In total that gives us:

    Remain on current terms: 50
    Join the Euro: 50

    The country really is split right down the middle...
    Well I seen some partisan remarks about polls in my time but that takes the biscuit.
    I do my own satire. ;)
  • DavidL said:
    This poll requires some interpretation to account for people are really indicating with these choices:

    NO DEAL 13 = Futile nihilistic gesture followed by joining the Euro
    HARD BREXIT 30 = Futile intergenerational division followed by joining the Euro
    SOFT BREXIT 9 = Status quo
    REMAIN 29 = Status quo
    JOIN EURO 7 = Join the Euro
    DK 12 = Status quo

    In total that gives us:

    Remain on current terms: 50
    Join the Euro: 50

    The country really is split right down the middle...
    Well I seen some partisan remarks about polls in my time but that takes the biscuit.
    I do my own satire. ;)
    You certainly do William
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,252
    Scott_P said:
    The biggest bunch of ineffectual loud mouthed wimps in British politics are not Labour backbenchers because the ERG set the bar impossibly high.

    Discuss.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,755
    Scott_P said:

    Worse than what happened to Puerto Rica?

    It's amazing how the Dems have failed to make any hay out of the botched relief effort In Puerto Rico.
  • Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    The tale of NHS vacancies is a familiar one.

    What could cause so many to vote with their feet?
    But who is that ?

    The people leaving the NHS or the larger number who have been recruited ?

    There's 100k more employed by the NHS now than when the LibDems left government.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 4,215
    HYUFD said:

    The Social Democrats will expect to be part of the Government given they were largest party and if they are the Greens are not

    The current split is 144-142-63 in favour of the centre-left bloc. A Social Democrat-Moderate Coalition has 171 seats so only five short and probably workable in all honesty. If you could get the Centre, Liberals or Greens to provide support you have your majority Government.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 16,513
    Scott_P said:
    Thinking about how the history books will describe them eh?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,276

    AnneJGP said:

    There are many close-to-unemployable people in the unemployed count.

    People with health or age issues; people whose basic skills are not good enough; people with the kind of criminal history that makes them undesirable to the vast majority of employers.

    In my life, I have come across people who are so IQ challenged, its difficult to comprehend how they function on a daily basis.
    I have many friends with severe learning difficulties and are cared for in residential homes. I've often wondered whether such people are counted in unemployment stats - does anyone know?

    Good evening, everyone.
    I would imagine, from your description, that most would be classified as economically inactive due to disability, but if they choose to make themselves available for work that's another matter.
    If the workforce is approximately 40m, it only takes 1 in 50 to equal 800,000 people.

    Only 1 in 50 need misdemeanours on their CV, some kind of behavioural issue, an inability to speak English etc to make them "hard to help" for the authorities.
    Thank you, economically inactive due to disability sounds as though it fits the bill. Few of them would be capable of 'making themselves available for work'.

    It's rather sad to hear my particular friend, who's in his eighties, lament the loss of the hospital where he was brought up. In those days many of them were able to work productively on the gardens or at cleaning or in the kitchens or laundry, and there was an active social life for them as well.

    By no means all joy, as many of his stories reveal, but in many ways far better than the small-scale care homes that we have nowadays. But presumably Health & Safety regulations wouldn't allow such people to do those jobs nowadays anyway.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,252

    Scott_P said:
    Thinking about how the history books will describe them eh?
    'Generations yet unborn will bless me as the author of their happiness and liberty.'

    Wildly optimistic assessment of his administration by Lord Melbourne, 1836.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    England are not the only country suffering a reality check. Spain 5 Croatia nil. Puts England being outplayed by them into perspective somewhat.

    England lost 2 1 to Spain on Saturday and lost to Croatia in the World Cup semi final, so an improvement now given we also currently lead Switzerland?
    First half they were very poor. Not convinced by them
    Given the next World Cup is 4 years away and the next European Championships 2 years away as I said their perfomances in this tournament are of little real significance
    So footballers just turn up every 2 or 4 years and turn it on at the time.

    I watched George Best throughout his career and he turned it on each time he played over years. It is called talent and England are short of real talent
    Well he did until he was about 26:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Best#Career_statistics

    But I don't blame him for going to the USA for easy money and extra fun.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,026

    DavidL said:
    This poll requires some interpretation to account for people are really indicating with these choices:

    NO DEAL 13 = Futile nihilistic gesture followed by joining the Euro
    HARD BREXIT 30 = Futile intergenerational division followed by joining the Euro
    SOFT BREXIT 9 = Status quo
    REMAIN 29 = Status quo
    JOIN EURO 7 = Join the Euro
    DK 12 = Status quo

    In total that gives us:

    Remain on current terms: 50
    Join the Euro: 50

    The country really is split right down the middle...
    :D You are cultivating quite the 'brand'.
This discussion has been closed.