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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited September 2018
    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
  • Anazina said:

    I note a repeat of the favourite PB spectacle of armchair brexitists pontificating on their deranged plans, from their safe house in Australia.

    +10
    I just moved to Australia so that Brexiteers could pontificate on PB for 24 hours a day. It is a conspiracy.
  • Scott_P said:
    He was having a very difficult tv interview when he admitted his plans would not allow frictionless trade, but the delays would not be too bad
    The average time it takes customs to clear a non EU shipment at the current time is less than an hour.

    JRM is right.
    You agree then frictionless trade is gone under the ERG plan

    And if so, our car and aerospace industry goes with it

    Madness
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited September 2018
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    My thanks to AM for the Swedish election tip - a nice profit for me and I'm sure for many other PBers.

    Also my thanks to Gardenwalker for linking to this:

    https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Brexit-and-the-British-Growth-Model.pdf

    I can't recommend this strongly enough, a really interesting and easy to understand analysis of the imbalances in the UK economy and its effect on the country.

    Thank you for the link, which I read with increasing anger. The authors recommended:

    * 1) substantial further devaluation (down a further 30% from the present $1:35: holy s**t!)
    * 2) government-funded housebuilding
    * 3) domestication of supply chains (by making imports more expensive)
    * 4) some unspecified uncosted method of compensating people from the (unspoken but implied) inflation pulse that that would bring

    The only thing in that farrago I agree with is (2), and it's the least likely to be implemented...

    From previous comments I seem to remember that you believe devaluation makes you richer, but I don't. This is a recipe for fixing the economy by penurising the people, and the cure us worse than the disease.
    Well if people want a higher sterling rate they can:

    Create more wealth
    Live within their means
    Increase their savings rate

    As British
    Leaverstan may struggle with that trilogy.

    They may well prefer the Corbyn/McDonnell vision.
    The report suggests a lower exchange rate plus investment to increase manufacturing to 15% of the economy.

    Some of the effects would be to boost the economy outside London / SE and to transfer wealth from the oldies to workers.

    It would not have the risks of the Corbyn economic plans.
    I am not a big fan of McDonnell's economic plans, but if I was in the gig economy he would have my interest and attention after his speech today.
    And if McDonnell then implementernative back home
    Yeah, the workers should just touch their forelocks and sup up the gruel in Tory Britain.

    Feel the Bern:

    https://twitter.com/SenSanders/status/1039173904240189441?s=19
    At least they have a job in Tory Britain (even in Amazon and I am not their greatest fan), if they want to be thrown on the Dole under Corbyn and Sanders in countries heading for bankruptcy that is up to them. The Tories could well be back in 1 Parliament
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    She is quite mad. It is the problem with surrounding yourself with a bunch of people who are out of touch.

    The only way May gets through the conference without being booed is to not mention Brexit at all.


    How long did it take Maggie and Blair to lose the plot? Theresa's done it in just over two years...

    Brown was loopy before he even became PM though...
  • HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
    Keep your eye on the non-Boris and non-JRM Brexiteers - McVay, Mourdant, Raab (if he quits over May's upcoming sellout), Baker. If Boris falls over I suspect one of them might get the crown. May is going to be toast unless she moves to CETA.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
    Then defeat and Prime Minister Corbyn is inevitable.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Scott_P said:
    LOL, I swear the "informed sources" were claiming there had been 40+ letters about two months ago.
  • Anazina said:

    I note a repeat of the favourite PB spectacle of armchair brexitists pontificating on their deranged plans, from their safe house in Australia.

    +10
    I just moved to Australia so that Brexiteers could pontificate on PB for 24 hours a day. It is a conspiracy.
    You do not have anything to lose with your Little Englander plans.

    My family has their jobs and prosperity at stake and I do not want my large Scottish family to vote to leave the UK
  • Scott_P said:
    And we all believe 'informed sources' like that. Put up or shut up.
  • Scott_P said:
    He was having a very difficult tv interview when he admitted his plans would not allow frictionless trade, but the delays would not be too bad
    The average time it takes customs to clear a non EU shipment at the current time is less than an hour.

    JRM is right.
    You agree then frictionless trade is gone under the ERG plan

    And if so, our car and aerospace industry goes with it

    Madness
    Frictionless trade (for EU trade) was always going to go - it is a consequence of Brexit.

    It won't make much difference to the car and aerospace industries.

    Goods only get held up at Customs when the paperwork is bad, or they are subject to a random compliance check. Large corporates will have their paperwork in order. The UK Govt will simply introduce an express clearance scheme so that these critical goods will not get delayed. The UK can CHOOSE not to diverge from EU regulations for these goods so there will be no need for compliance checks.

    The EU may not do the same, but that will be their manufacturing industry they are hurting.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Danny565 said:


    LOL, I swear the "informed sources" were claiming there had been 40+ letters about two months ago.

    We were told mid 40s.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
    Then defeat and Prime Minister Corbyn is inevitable.
    Can we count on your vote next time GIN? :D
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If Theresa chucks Chequers (either by choice or because she's forced to) she's surely finished.

    I said on 6th July that putting all her eggs in Robbins basket wasn't going to end well for her...
    No, as she will chuck it in favour of a fudge on services which gets the Withdrawal Agreement and the transition agreement passed and Tory MPs know if May goes they risk Boris or Mogg instead
    Point missed. The crux of Chequers is the customs partnership. May PROMISED (in writing by the way) that the UK would have an independent trade policy and would not be in the CU.

    The customs partnership is dead. The EU have been clear they will never accept it. So a fudge on services gets her nowhere. Chequers is dead and the only way of getting the EU onboard is to sacrifice a customs union, which will lead to the rest of the Leavers in the cabinet resigning.

    Time to move to CETA. But yes, I think May will be finished by the failure of Chequers.
    How many of her MPs will trust her to deliver a volte face and come out with CETA?

    She nailed her colours to the mast with Chequers. If that ship goes down, the captain goes with it.

    David Davis for two years to oversee Brexit, with a new leader in place at least a year before the election. Probably Sajid Javid if he impresses in that two year period, but others might come through strongly.
  • GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
    Then defeat and Prime Minister Corbyn is inevitable.
    Nothing is inevitable anymore - you should know that by now
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Danny565 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
    Then defeat and Prime Minister Corbyn is inevitable.
    Can we count on your vote next time GIN? :D
    If it's May Vs Corbyn. Yes.
  • Anazina said:

    I note a repeat of the favourite PB spectacle of armchair brexitists pontificating on their deranged plans, from their safe house in Australia.

    +10
    I just moved to Australia so that Brexiteers could pontificate on PB for 24 hours a day. It is a conspiracy.
    You do not have anything to lose with your Little Englander plans.

    My family has their jobs and prosperity at stake and I do not want my large Scottish family to vote to leave the UK
    Then you will be delighted to hear that Barnier believes that if the UK was not subject to EU regulation the country would have a huge competitive advantage over the EU. So you will be richer and your Scottish family will not want to leave the UK.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
    Then defeat and Prime Minister Corbyn is inevitable.
    Nothing is inevitable anymore - you should know that by now
    May hung on in 2017 by her fingertips. You seriously think she can do better in 2022 than she did in 2017?

    It's not going to happen.
  • Scott_P said:
    He was having a very difficult tv interview when he admitted his plans would not allow frictionless trade, but the delays would not be too bad
    The average time it takes customs to clear a non EU shipment at the current time is less than an hour.

    JRM is right.
    You agree then frictionless trade is gone under the ERG plan

    And if so, our car and aerospace industry goes with it

    Madness
    Frictionless trade (for EU trade) was always going to go - it is a consequence of Brexit.

    It won't make much difference to the car and aerospace industries.

    Goods only get held up at Customs when the paperwork is bad, or they are subject to a random compliance check. Large corporates will have their paperwork in order. The UK Govt will simply introduce an express clearance scheme so that these critical goods will not get delayed. The UK can CHOOSE not to diverge from EU regulations for these goods so there will be no need for compliance checks.

    The EU may not do the same, but that will be their manufacturing industry they are hurting.
    This last few days has seen a big change in the narrative and it is becoming clear it wll be TM deal or a second referendum. Hard Brexit/WTO will not get through the HOC
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
    Then defeat and Prime Minister Corbyn is inevitable.
    Not on current polls, the Tories lead with both YouGov and Survation this week even after Brexit
  • HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If Theresa chucks Chequers (either by choice or because she's forced to) she's surely finished.

    I said on 6th July that putting all her eggs in Robbins basket wasn't going to end well for her...
    No, as she will chuck it in favour of a fudge on services which gets the Withdrawal Agreement and the transition agreement passed and Tory MPs know if May goes they risk Boris or Mogg instead
    Point missed. The crux of Chequers is the customs partnership. May PROMISED (in writing by the way) that the UK would have an independent trade policy and would not be in the CU.

    The customs partnership is dead. The EU have been clear they will never accept it. So a fudge on services gets her nowhere. Chequers is dead and the only way of getting the EU onboard is to sacrifice a customs union, which will lead to the rest of the Leavers in the cabinet resigning.

    Time to move to CETA. But yes, I think May will be finished by the failure of Chequers.
    How many of her MPs will trust her to deliver a volte face and come out with CETA?

    She nailed her colours to the mast with Chequers. If that ship goes down, the captain goes with it.

    David Davis for two years to oversee Brexit, with a new leader in place at least a year before the election. Probably Sajid Javid if he impresses in that two year period, but others might come through strongly.
    I actually think your call on DD is quite astute. He could easily be the compromise candidate. I agree that May will probably go down with Chequers, and DD might be acceptable because he does not want the job long term.
  • HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If Theresa chucks Chequers (either by choice or because she's forced to) she's surely finished.

    I said on 6th July that putting all her eggs in Robbins basket wasn't going to end well for her...
    No, as she will chuck it in favour of a fudge on services which gets the Withdrawal Agreement and the transition agreement passed and Tory MPs know if May goes they risk Boris or Mogg instead
    Point missed. The crux of Chequers is the customs partnership. May PROMISED (in writing by the way) that the UK would have an independent trade policy and would not be in the CU.

    The customs partnership is dead. The EU have been clear they will never accept it. So a fudge on services gets her nowhere. Chequers is dead and the only way of getting the EU onboard is to sacrifice a customs union, which will lead to the rest of the Leavers in the cabinet resigning.

    Time to move to CETA. But yes, I think May will be finished by the failure of Chequers.
    How many of her MPs will trust her to deliver a volte face and come out with CETA?

    She nailed her colours to the mast with Chequers. If that ship goes down, the captain goes with it.

    David Davis for two years to oversee Brexit, with a new leader in place at least a year before the election. Probably Sajid Javid if he impresses in that two year period, but others might come through strongly.
    Davis is not someone I could support as PM. His character is flawed (in different ways to Boris, certainly) and I do not find him trustworthy in the slightest.

    Such a move would see me spoiling my ballot.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
    Then defeat and Prime Minister Corbyn is inevitable.
    Not on current polls, the Tories lead with both YouGov and Survation this week even after Brexit
    Tories lead by 25% FOUR WEEKS before the general election... Then voters took one look at her "campaign" and that lead melted away faster than snow in June...
  • Scott_P said:
    He was having a very difficult tv interview when he admitted his plans would not allow frictionless trade, but the delays would not be too bad
    The average time it takes customs to clear a non EU shipment at the current time is less than an hour.

    JRM is right.
    You agree then frictionless trade is gone under the ERG plan

    And if so, our car and aerospace industry goes with it

    Madness
    Frictionless trade (for EU trade) was always going to go - it is a consequence of Brexit.

    It won't make much difference to the car and aerospace industries.

    Goods only get held up at Customs when the paperwork is bad, or they are subject to a random compliance check. Large corporates will have their paperwork in order. The UK Govt will simply introduce an express clearance scheme so that these critical goods will not get delayed. The UK can CHOOSE not to diverge from EU regulations for these goods so there will be no need for compliance checks.

    The EU may not do the same, but that will be their manufacturing industry they are hurting.
    This last few days has seen a big change in the narrative and it is becoming clear it wll be TM deal or a second referendum. Hard Brexit/WTO will not get through the HOC
    There has been no change of narrative at all - you can't just post the same thing yourself 1000 times and claim the narrative has changed!

    Nobody is seriously talking about either Chequers being acceptable to the EU or there actually being a second referendum. The only change in narrative that I see is the EU trying to suggest that the solution is deal-lite, where they get everything they want in return for nothing. Suspect that there might be more problems getting this through the HoC than you might like to admit.

    The HoC does not need to approve WTO. It is what will happen, by law, unless a deal is passed.
  • HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If Theresa chucks Chequers (either by choice or because she's forced to) she's surely finished.

    I said on 6th July that putting all her eggs in Robbins basket wasn't going to end well for her...
    No, as she will chuck it in favour of a fudge on services which gets the Withdrawal Agreement and the transition agreement passed and Tory MPs know if May goes they risk Boris or Mogg instead
    Point missed. The crux of Chequers is the customs partnership. May PROMISED (in writing by the way) that the UK would have an independent trade policy and would not be in the CU.

    The customs partnership is dead. The EU have been clear they will never accept it. So a fudge on services gets her nowhere. Chequers is dead and the only way of getting the EU onboard is to sacrifice a customs union, which will lead to the rest of the Leavers in the cabinet resigning.

    Time to move to CETA. But yes, I think May will be finished by the failure of Chequers.
    How many of her MPs will trust her to deliver a volte face and come out with CETA?

    She nailed her colours to the mast with Chequers. If that ship goes down, the captain goes with it.

    David Davis for two years to oversee Brexit, with a new leader in place at least a year before the election. Probably Sajid Javid if he impresses in that two year period, but others might come through strongly.
    I actually think your call on DD is quite astute. He could easily be the compromise candidate. I agree that May will probably go down with Chequers, and DD might be acceptable because he does not want the job long term.
    How do you get to David Davis. If TM lost a VNOC a leadership race would start and many candidates would come forward. The MPs are going to be seeking new blood who can unite the party. David Davis has been a failure on Brexit and I doubt he would even stand

  • Scott_P said:
    He was having a very difficult tv interview when he admitted his plans would not allow frictionless trade, but the delays would not be too bad
    The average time it takes customs to clear a non EU shipment at the current time is less than an hour.

    JRM is right.
    You agree then frictionless trade is gone under the ERG plan

    And if so, our car and aerospace industry goes with it

    Madness
    Frictionless trade (for EU trade) was always going to go - it is a consequence of Brexit.

    It won't make much difference to the car and aerospace industries.

    Goods only get held up at Customs when the paperwork is bad, or they are subject to a random compliance check. Large corporates will have their paperwork in order. The UK Govt will simply introduce an express clearance scheme so that these critical goods will not get delayed. The UK can CHOOSE not to diverge from EU regulations for these goods so there will be no need for compliance checks.

    The EU may not do the same, but that will be their manufacturing industry they are hurting.
    This last few days has seen a big change in the narrative and it is becoming clear it wll be TM deal or a second referendum. Hard Brexit/WTO will not get through the HOC
    No deal doesn't need to win a vote, it's the default when all the other options are defeated.

    The parallel is with Lords reform. Everyone agreed that the status quo should be replaced with at least some elected peers. Then every option for the precise fraction of peers to elect was defeated and so we kept to the status quo. The legislative status quo is that we leave the EU on March 29th.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If Theresa chucks Chequers (either by choice or because she's forced to) she's surely finished.

    I said on 6th July that putting all her eggs in Robbins basket wasn't going to end well for her...
    No, as she will chuck it in favour of a fudge on services which gets the Withdrawal Agreement and the transition agreement passed and Tory MPs know if May goes they risk Boris or Mogg instead
    Point missed. The crux of Chequers is the customs partnership. May PROMISED (in writing by the way) that the UK would have an independent trade policy and would not be in the CU.

    The customs partnership is dead. The EU have been clear they will never accept it. So a fudge on services gets her nowhere. Chequers is dead and the only way of getting the EU onboard is to sacrifice a customs union, which will lead to the rest of the Leavers in the cabinet resigning.

    Time to move to CETA. But yes, I think May will be finished by the failure of Chequers.
    How many of her MPs will trust her to deliver a volte face and come out with CETA?

    She nailed her colours to the mast with Chequers. If that ship goes down, the captain goes with it.

    David Davis for two years to oversee Brexit, with a new leader in place at least a year before the election. Probably Sajid Javid if he impresses in that two year period, but others might come through strongly.
    Davis is not someone I could support as PM. His character is flawed (in different ways to Boris, certainly) and I do not find him trustworthy in the slightest.

    Such a move would see me spoiling my ballot.
    Coronation, so no ballot to spoil until you vote on his successor.

    As I understand it, DD was working on CETA until Theresa May and Bobbins decided to impose Chequers instead.
  • HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
    Boris is not the likely alternative. Why on earth would MPs trust him? Yes, he won an election in London six years ago and that was an impressive achievement but a lot's changed since then.
  • GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
    Then defeat and Prime Minister Corbyn is inevitable.
    Nothing is inevitable anymore - you should know that by now
    May hung on in 2017 by her fingertips. You seriously think she can do better in 2022 than she did in 2017?

    It's not going to happen.
    I want Sajid Javid but you simply cannot say it is not going to happen. Unlikely yes, impossible no
  • HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If Theresa chucks Chequers (either by choice or because she's forced to) she's surely finished.

    I said on 6th July that putting all her eggs in Robbins basket wasn't going to end well for her...
    No, as she will chuck it in favour of a fudge on services which gets the Withdrawal Agreement and the transition agreement passed and Tory MPs know if May goes they risk Boris or Mogg instead
    Point missed. The crux of Chequers is the customs partnership. May PROMISED (in writing by the way) that the UK would have an independent trade policy and would not be in the CU.

    The customs partnership is dead. The EU have been clear they will never accept it. So a fudge on services gets her nowhere. Chequers is dead and the only way of getting the EU onboard is to sacrifice a customs union, which will lead to the rest of the Leavers in the cabinet resigning.

    Time to move to CETA. But yes, I think May will be finished by the failure of Chequers.
    How many of her MPs will trust her to deliver a volte face and come out with CETA?

    She nailed her colours to the mast with Chequers. If that ship goes down, the captain goes with it.

    David Davis for two years to oversee Brexit, with a new leader in place at least a year before the election. Probably Sajid Javid if he impresses in that two year period, but others might come through strongly.
    I actually think your call on DD is quite astute. He could easily be the compromise candidate. I agree that May will probably go down with Chequers, and DD might be acceptable because he does not want the job long term.
    How do you get to David Davis. If TM lost a VNOC a leadership race would start and many candidates would come forward. The MPs are going to be seeking new blood who can unite the party. David Davis has been a failure on Brexit and I doubt he would even stand

    It depends on Boris. If Boris runs, then I think Leavers would group around him. Other Leavers would try and if maybe one of them will get more momentum. Either he gets on the ballot (eg wins) or he falls and another Leaver takes his place (and wins).

    But if Boris does not run (because he thinks he does not have enough support) then I think the Leavers might press DD into service. In this scenario, I can see them all agreeing to back him to ensure he is on the ballot. The other Leavers can bide their time knowing that DD is not going to stay long.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
    Boris is not the likely alternative. Why on earth would MPs trust him? Yes, he won an election in London six years ago and that was an impressive achievement but a lot's changed since then.
    David, do you fancy another 4-6 week campign pounding the streets trying "sell" the Maybot to the Great British Public? :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
    Keep your eye on the non-Boris and non-JRM Brexiteers - McVay, Mourdant, Raab (if he quits over May's upcoming sellout), Baker. If Boris falls over I suspect one of them might get the crown. May is going to be toast unless she moves to CETA.
    She won't as the DUP will veto CETA as it requires a border in the Irish sea
  • Anazina said:

    I note a repeat of the favourite PB spectacle of armchair brexitists pontificating on their deranged plans, from their safe house in Australia.

    +10
    I just moved to Australia so that Brexiteers could pontificate on PB for 24 hours a day. It is a conspiracy.
    You do not have anything to lose with your Little Englander plans.

    My family has their jobs and prosperity at stake and I do not want my large Scottish family to vote to leave the UK
    Then you will be delighted to hear that Barnier believes that if the UK was not subject to EU regulation the country would have a huge competitive advantage over the EU. So you will be richer and your Scottish family will not want to leave the UK.
    Believe me I know my Scottish family and Scotland and your nonsense would see a huge boost for Independence.
  • Anazina said:

    I note a repeat of the favourite PB spectacle of armchair brexitists pontificating on their deranged plans, from their safe house in Australia.

    +10
    I just moved to Australia so that Brexiteers could pontificate on PB for 24 hours a day. It is a conspiracy.
    You do not have anything to lose with your Little Englander plans.

    My family has their jobs and prosperity at stake and I do not want my large Scottish family to vote to leave the UK
    Then you will be delighted to hear that Barnier believes that if the UK was not subject to EU regulation the country would have a huge competitive advantage over the EU. So you will be richer and your Scottish family will not want to leave the UK.
    Believe me I know my Scottish family and Scotland and your nonsense would see a huge boost for Independence.
    Not a problem. If the Scots vote for independence, we simply decide it is too difficult to implement and make them have a second referendum :)
  • HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If Theresa chucks Chequers (either by choice or because she's forced to) she's surely finished.

    I said on 6th July that putting all her eggs in Robbins basket wasn't going to end well for her...
    No, as she will chuck it in favour of a fudge on services which gets the Withdrawal Agreement and the transition agreement passed and Tory MPs know if May goes they risk Boris or Mogg instead
    Point missed. The crux of Chequers is the customs partnership. May PROMISED (in writing by the way) that the UK would have an independent trade policy and would not be in the CU.

    The customs partnership is dead. The EU have been clear they will never accept it. So a fudge on services gets her nowhere. Chequers is dead and the only way of getting the EU onboard is to sacrifice a customs union, which will lead to the rest of the Leavers in the cabinet resigning.

    Time to move to CETA. But yes, I think May will be finished by the failure of Chequers.
    How many of her MPs will trust her to deliver a volte face and come out with CETA?

    She nailed her colours to the mast with Chequers. If that ship goes down, the captain goes with it.

    David Davis for two years to oversee Brexit, with a new leader in place at least a year before the election. Probably Sajid Javid if he impresses in that two year period, but others might come through strongly.
    Davis is not someone I could support as PM. His character is flawed (in different ways to Boris, certainly) and I do not find him trustworthy in the slightest.

    Such a move would see me spoiling my ballot.
    Coronation, so no ballot to spoil until you vote on his successor.

    As I understand it, DD was working on CETA until Theresa May and Bobbins decided to impose Chequers instead.
    I meant in future elections. I have no vote in any leadership campaign as I am not (and have never been) a member of any party!

    I will, however, admit to canvassing for the Tories in Northampton South back in 1987... but I don't think that counts as being a member.

    But anyway, Davis - even if he never goes before the electorate - would make me question any future vote for the Conservative Party.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    GIN1138 said:


    David, do you fancy another 4-6 week campign pounding the streets trying "sell" the Maybot to the Great British Public? :D

    I wonder if TM herself fancies that. It might be she's already decided not to, and/or given that assurance to others.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
    Keep your eye on the non-Boris and non-JRM Brexiteers - McVay, Mourdant, Raab (if he quits over May's upcoming sellout), Baker. If Boris falls over I suspect one of them might get the crown. May is going to be toast unless she moves to CETA.
    She won't as the DUP will veto CETA as it requires a border in the Irish sea
    Try and keep up. CETA (and any deal) requires the EU to back down on the backstop. CETA does not require a border in the Irish Sea.

    The backstop will have to go if there is to be a deal - it won't pass Parliament.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    Anazina said:

    I note a repeat of the favourite PB spectacle of armchair brexitists pontificating on their deranged plans, from their safe house in Australia.

    +10
    I just moved to Australia so that Brexiteers could pontificate on PB for 24 hours a day. It is a conspiracy.
    You do not have anything to lose with your Little Englander plans.

    My family has their jobs and prosperity at stake and I do not want my large Scottish family to vote to leave the UK
    Then you will be delighted to hear that Barnier believes that if the UK was not subject to EU regulation the country would have a huge competitive advantage over the EU. So you will be richer and your Scottish family will not want to leave the UK.
    Believe me I know my Scottish family and Scotland and your nonsense would see a huge boost for Independence.
    Not a problem. If the Scots vote for independence, we simply decide it is too difficult to implement and make them have a second referendum :)
    :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
    Boris is not the likely alternative. Why on earth would MPs trust him? Yes, he won an election in London six years ago and that was an impressive achievement but a lot's changed since then.
    As he is the lead anti Chequers Deal candidate and an anti Chequers Deal candidate winning and No Deal Brexit and quite likely a general election is almost inevitable if May goes
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Andrew said:

    GIN1138 said:


    David, do you fancy another 4-6 week campign pounding the streets trying "sell" the Maybot to the Great British Public? :D

    I wonder if TM herself fancies that. It might be she's already decided not to, and/or given that assurance to others.
    Well Newsnight reporting she's going to say in her conference speech that she wants to lead the Tories to 2022...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
    Then defeat and Prime Minister Corbyn is inevitable.
    Nothing is inevitable anymore - you should know that by now
    May hung on in 2017 by her fingertips. You seriously think she can do better in 2022 than she did in 2017?

    It's not going to happen.
    I want Sajid Javid but you simply cannot say it is not going to happen. Unlikely yes, impossible no
    If May goes no way Javid will get it now at this stage, it would be the most ultra hard Brexiteer on the ballot paper for members
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
    Then defeat and Prime Minister Corbyn is inevitable.
    Not on current polls, the Tories lead with both YouGov and Survation this week even after Brexit
    Tories lead by 25% FOUR WEEKS before the general election... Then voters took one look at her "campaign" and that lead melted away faster than snow in June...

    She still got the highest voteshare for the Tories in decades and no alternative polls better, most poll worse than her.


  • Scott_P said:
    He was having a very difficult tv interview when he admitted his plans would not allow frictionless trade, but the delays would not be too bad
    The average time it takes customs to clear a non EU shipment at the current time is less than an hour.

    JRM is right.
    You agree then frictionless trade is gone under the ERG plan

    And if so, our car and aerospace industry goes with it

    Madness
    Frictionless trade (for EU trade) was always going to go - it is a consequence of Brexit.

    It won't make much difference to the car and aerospace industries.

    Goods only get held up at Customs when the paperwork is bad, or they are subject to a random compliance check. Large corporates will have their paperwork in order. The UK Govt will simply introduce an express clearance scheme so that these critical goods will not get delayed. The UK can CHOOSE not to diverge from EU regulations for these goods so there will be no need for compliance checks.

    The EU may not do the same, but that will be their manufacturing industry they are hurting.
    This last few days has seen a big change in the narrative and it is becoming clear it wll be TM deal or a second referendum. Hard Brexit/WTO will not get through the HOC
    There has been no change of narrative at all - you can't just post the same thing yourself 1000 times and claim the narrative has changed!

    Nobody is seriously talking about either Chequers being acceptable to the EU or there actually being a second referendum. The only change in narrative that I see is the EU trying to suggest that the solution is deal-lite, where they get everything they want in return for nothing. Suspect that there might be more problems getting this through the HoC than you might like to admit.

    The HoC does not need to approve WTO. It is what will happen, by law, unless a deal is passed.
    So you are watching BBC and Sky, reading the newspapers, listening to the speeches from the head of Jaguar Land Rover, listening live to the TUC conference, and can say the narrative has not changed. Furthermore, of course the HOC can stop this, they are there to protect the national interest and outside of the ERG of max 100, 550 mps are lined against WTO
  • GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
    Boris is not the likely alternative. Why on earth would MPs trust him? Yes, he won an election in London six years ago and that was an impressive achievement but a lot's changed since then.
    David, do you fancy another 4-6 week campign pounding the streets trying "sell" the Maybot to the Great British Public? :D
    Obviously not. But Boris would be even worse. May can at least do the serious business of government; Boris could not - and unlike Corbyn, he'd have proven the point because he'd have already been PM for 2-3 years. And electing him and then dumping him in favour of a third PM in a parliament would look absurd. We're not Australia.

    But there are better options than either, which is why I'm not too worried at this stage.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
    Keep your eye on the non-Boris and non-JRM Brexiteers - McVay, Mourdant, Raab (if he quits over May's upcoming sellout), Baker. If Boris falls over I suspect one of them might get the crown. May is going to be toast unless she moves to CETA.
    She won't as the DUP will veto CETA as it requires a border in the Irish sea
    Try and keep up. CETA (and any deal) requires the EU to back down on the backstop. CETA does not require a border in the Irish Sea.

    The backstop will have to go if there is to be a deal - it won't pass Parliament.
    Which as the EU is not going to back down on the backstop as Barnier has made clear umpteen times makes your point irrelevant. A single market and customs union in all but name deal with a fudge on free movement will get through Parliament, Labour Remainers oppose CETA and Chequers as it does not include services
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    Apparently Newsnight are coming to the democracy road show in Chez Vegas tomorrow night. Will have to be on my best behaviour!!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960

    I meant in future elections. I have no vote in any leadership campaign as I am not (and have never been) a member of any party!

    I will, however, admit to canvassing for the Tories in Northampton South back in 1987... but I don't think that counts as being a member.

    But anyway, Davis - even if he never goes before the electorate - would make me question any future vote for the Conservative Party.

    If it gets us through a workable Brexit, then Javid v Corbyn at the election?

    I just think something has to give. You can't have the PM insist on Chequers, senior resignations from Cabinet as a result because it is unworkable, then have her pivot to God-knows-what Plan B whilst still retaining a degree of credibility.

  • Anazina said:

    I note a repeat of the favourite PB spectacle of armchair brexitists pontificating on their deranged plans, from their safe house in Australia.

    +10
    I just moved to Australia so that Brexiteers could pontificate on PB for 24 hours a day. It is a conspiracy.
    You do not have anything to lose with your Little Englander plans.

    My family has their jobs and prosperity at stake and I do not want my large Scottish family to vote to leave the UK
    Then you will be delighted to hear that Barnier believes that if the UK was not subject to EU regulation the country would have a huge competitive advantage over the EU. So you will be richer and your Scottish family will not want to leave the UK.
    Believe me I know my Scottish family and Scotland and your nonsense would see a huge boost for Independence.
    Not a problem. If the Scots vote for independence, we simply decide it is too difficult to implement and make them have a second referendum :)
    You really are unbelievable
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256



    It depends on Boris. If Boris runs, then I think Leavers would group around him. Other Leavers would try and if maybe one of them will get more momentum. Either he gets on the ballot (eg wins) or he falls and another Leaver takes his place (and wins).

    But if Boris does not run (because he thinks he does not have enough support) then I think the Leavers might press DD into service. In this scenario, I can see them all agreeing to back him to ensure he is on the ballot. The other Leavers can bide their time knowing that DD is not going to stay long.

    And if Boris turns his coat? He seems to be saying that we are better off being "in"
  • GIN1138 said:

    Andrew said:

    GIN1138 said:


    David, do you fancy another 4-6 week campign pounding the streets trying "sell" the Maybot to the Great British Public? :D

    I wonder if TM herself fancies that. It might be she's already decided not to, and/or given that assurance to others.
    Well Newsnight reporting she's going to say in her conference speech that she wants to lead the Tories to 2022...
    The other way of looking at this is she has to say that. Giving any indication of stepping down earlier just creates a mess comparable to the one that Cable has just created for himself.

    You say you are fighting the next election right up to the moment before you announce that you are not.

    I do think she will step aside - but at a point of her choosing. And possibly when we least expect it.

    Saying she is staying put is just part of that process.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Anazina said:

    I note a repeat of the favourite PB spectacle of armchair brexitists pontificating on their deranged plans, from their safe house in Australia.

    +10
    I just moved to Australia so that Brexiteers could pontificate on PB for 24 hours a day. It is a conspiracy.
    You do not have anything to lose with your Little Englander plans.

    My family has their jobs and prosperity at stake and I do not want my large Scottish family to vote to leave the UK
    Then you will be delighted to hear that Barnier believes that if the UK was not subject to EU regulation the country would have a huge competitive advantage over the EU. So you will be richer and your Scottish family will not want to leave the UK.
    Believe me I know my Scottish family and Scotland and your nonsense would see a huge boost for Independence.
    Not a problem. If the Scots vote for independence, we simply decide it is too difficult to implement and make them have a second referendum :)
    :D
    That is just the Little Englander attitude that will see Scotland and Northern Ireland leave the UK
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
    Then defeat and Prime Minister Corbyn is inevitable.
    Not on current polls, the Tories lead with both YouGov and Survation this week even after Brexit
    Tories lead by 25% FOUR WEEKS before the general election... Then voters took one look at her "campaign" and that lead melted away faster than snow in June...

    She still got the highest voteshare for the Tories in decades


    Well as Mike is always telling that doesn't matter if Labour is on 40% themselves! :D
  • I meant in future elections. I have no vote in any leadership campaign as I am not (and have never been) a member of any party!

    I will, however, admit to canvassing for the Tories in Northampton South back in 1987... but I don't think that counts as being a member.

    But anyway, Davis - even if he never goes before the electorate - would make me question any future vote for the Conservative Party.

    If it gets us through a workable Brexit, then Javid v Corbyn at the election?

    I just think something has to give. You can't have the PM insist on Chequers, senior resignations from Cabinet as a result because it is unworkable, then have her pivot to God-knows-what Plan B whilst still retaining a degree of credibility.

    Chequers was a proposal as part of an ongoing negotiation. It is not credible to expect it to stay fully intact as a result of the process of reaching an agreement. How that is packaged and explained is a different matter.

    Now May has been awful at selling her policies and positions - so this could go badly for her. But she might just pull off a deal that actually stands a chance of working.

    If the boundary changes go through, I shall be living in the safe Labour seat of Oxford where my vote will count for diddly squat.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited September 2018

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
    Boris is not the likely alternative. Why on earth would MPs trust him? Yes, he won an election in London six years ago and that was an impressive achievement but a lot's changed since then.
    David, do you fancy another 4-6 week campign pounding the streets trying "sell" the Maybot to the Great British Public? :D
    Obviously not. But Boris would be even worse. May can at least do the serious business of government; Boris could not - and unlike Corbyn, he'd have proven the point because he'd have already been PM for 2-3 years. And electing him and then dumping him in favour of a third PM in a parliament would look absurd. We're not Australia.

    But there are better options than either, which is why I'm not too worried at this stage.
    I agree. It won't be Boris (although I'd enjoy a Boris leadership personally :D )

    But the idea the Tories can let May face the electorate in 2022 in for the birds.... And the fact it seems she's seriously going to say this in her conference speech does make it look like shes worryingly lost touch with reality IMO.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
    Keep your eye on the non-Boris and non-JRM Brexiteers - McVay, Mourdant, Raab (if he quits over May's upcoming sellout), Baker. If Boris falls over I suspect one of them might get the crown. May is going to be toast unless she moves to CETA.
    She won't as the DUP will veto CETA as it requires a border in the Irish sea
    Try and keep up. CETA (and any deal) requires the EU to back down on the backstop. CETA does not require a border in the Irish Sea.

    The backstop will have to go if there is to be a deal - it won't pass Parliament.
    The crux of any deal going through Parliament is whether Parliament is waiving its right to amend the final Brexit deal. Can Parliament bind its successors by signing the deal and enacting as a Treaty?

    Locking us into a deal on the Irish border that cannot be re-opened - and effectively nullifies Brexit - will be too much to take. But that is where May has us right now.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
    Boris is not the likely alternative. Why on earth would MPs trust him? Yes, he won an election in London six years ago and that was an impressive achievement but a lot's changed since then.
    and quite likely a general election is almost inevitable if May goes
    What? Why?

  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    Scott_P said:
    He was having a very difficult tv interview when he admitted his plans would not allow frictionless trade, but the delays would not be too bad
    The average time it takes customs to clear a non EU shipment at the current time is less than an hour.

    JRM is right.
    You agree then frictionless trade is gone under the ERG plan

    And if so, our car and aerospace industry goes with it

    Madness
    Frictionless trade (for EU trade) was always going to go - it is a consequence of Brexit.

    It won't make much difference to the car and aerospace industries.

    Snip

    The EU may not do the same, but that will be their manufacturing industry they are hurting.
    This last few days has seen a big change in the narrative and it is becoming clear it wll be TM deal or a second referendum. Hard Brexit/WTO will not get through the HOC
    There has been no change of narrative at all - you can't just post the same thing yourself 1000 times and claim the narrative has changed!

    Nobody is seriously talking about either Chequers being acceptable to the EU or there actually being a second referendum. The only change in narrative that I see is the EU trying to suggest that the solution is deal-lite, where they get everything they want in return for nothing. Suspect that there might be more problems getting this through the HoC than you might like to admit.

    The HoC does not need to approve WTO. It is what will happen, by law, unless a deal is passed.
    So you are watching BBC and Sky, reading the newspapers, listening to the speeches from the head of Jaguar Land Rover, listening live to the TUC conference, and can say the narrative has not changed. Furthermore, of course the HOC can stop this, they are there to protect the national interest and outside of the ERG of max 100, 550 mps are lined against WTO
    Most people do not watch 24-hour news all day. People under 30 don’t watch TV news at all.

    All of the big names tried to scare us about the economic impact of Brexit before the referendum. Of course a no deal Brexit would be hugely disruptive, but that message simply isn’t credible from the mouths that said a mere vote to leave would be disastrous.

    Britain will leave the EU by the mechanisms of EU and British law on 29 March 2019. It doesn’t matter whether MPs approve or not. They should have thought about that before they triggered Article 50.


  • It depends on Boris. If Boris runs, then I think Leavers would group around him. Other Leavers would try and if maybe one of them will get more momentum. Either he gets on the ballot (eg wins) or he falls and another Leaver takes his place (and wins).

    But if Boris does not run (because he thinks he does not have enough support) then I think the Leavers might press DD into service. In this scenario, I can see them all agreeing to back him to ensure he is on the ballot. The other Leavers can bide their time knowing that DD is not going to stay long.

    And if Boris turns his coat? He seems to be saying that we are better off being "in"
    I suppose that would be one way to emulate Churchill, albeit on support for Brexit rather than party allegiance.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    GIN1138 said:

    Anazina said:

    I note a repeat of the favourite PB spectacle of armchair brexitists pontificating on their deranged plans, from their safe house in Australia.

    +10
    I just moved to Australia so that Brexiteers could pontificate on PB for 24 hours a day. It is a conspiracy.
    You do not have anything to lose with your Little Englander plans.

    My family has their jobs and prosperity at stake and I do not want my large Scottish family to vote to leave the UK
    Then you will be delighted to hear that Barnier believes that if the UK was not subject to EU regulation the country would have a huge competitive advantage over the EU. So you will be richer and your Scottish family will not want to leave the UK.
    Believe me I know my Scottish family and Scotland and your nonsense would see a huge boost for Independence.
    Not a problem. If the Scots vote for independence, we simply decide it is too difficult to implement and make them have a second referendum :)
    :D
    That is just the Little Englander attitude that will see Scotland and Northern Ireland leave the UK
    To be honest (and Malc will back me up on this) I've always been intensely relaxed about Scotland leaving the Union.

    If they want to go then good luck to them. Same with Northern Ireland.

    I would prefer we all stay together but if they want to do something else then that's up to them. You can't keep people reconciled when they don't want to be reconciled.
  • GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
    Boris is not the likely alternative. Why on earth would MPs trust him? Yes, he won an election in London six years ago and that was an impressive achievement but a lot's changed since then.
    David, do you fancy another 4-6 week campign pounding the streets trying "sell" the Maybot to the Great British Public? :D
    Obviously not. But Boris would be even worse. May can at least do the serious business of government; Boris could not - and unlike Corbyn, he'd have proven the point because he'd have already been PM for 2-3 years. And electing him and then dumping him in favour of a third PM in a parliament would look absurd. We're not Australia.

    But there are better options than either, which is why I'm not too worried at this stage.
    I agree. It won't be Boris (although I'd enjoy a Boris leadership personally :D )

    But the idea the Tories can let May face the electorate in 2022 in for the birds.... And the fact it seems she's seriously going to say this in her conference speech does make it look like shes worryingly lost touch with reality IMO.
    What else can she say. It is most unlikely she will lead into the GE, indeed I hope she will stand down on her own accord after Brexit, but if she says anything other than she will lead into the next GE she has lost what little authority she already has
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
    Keep your eye on the non-Boris and non-JRM Brexiteers - McVay, Mourdant, Raab (if he quits over May's upcoming sellout), Baker. If Boris falls over I suspect one of them might get the crown. May is going to be toast unless she moves to CETA.
    She won't as the DUP will veto CETA as it requires a border in the Irish sea
    Try and keep up. CETA (and any deal) requires the EU to back down on the backstop. CETA does not require a border in the Irish Sea.

    The backstop will have to go if there is to be a deal - it won't pass Parliament.
    The crux of any deal going through Parliament is whether Parliament is waiving its right to amend the final Brexit deal. Can Parliament bind its successors by signing the deal and enacting as a Treaty?

    Locking us into a deal on the Irish border that cannot be re-opened - and effectively nullifies Brexit - will be too much to take. But that is where May has us right now.
    I very much doubt she will lock us into a deal on the Irish border in the actual deal
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited September 2018

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
    Boris is not the likely alternative. Why on earth would MPs trust him? Yes, he won an election in London six years ago and that was an impressive achievement but a lot's changed since then.
    David, do you fancy another 4-6 week campign pounding the streets trying "sell" the Maybot to the Great British Public? :D
    Obviously not. But Boris would be even worse. May can at least do the serious business of government; Boris could not - and unlike Corbyn, he'd have proven the point because he'd have already been PM for 2-3 years. And electing him and then dumping him in favour of a third PM in a parliament would look absurd. We're not Australia.

    But there are better options than either, which is why I'm not too worried at this stage.
    I agree. It won't be Boris (although I'd enjoy a Boris leadership personally :D )

    But the idea the Tories can let May face the electorate in 2022 in for the birds.... And the fact it seems she's seriously going to say this in her conference speech does make it look like shes worryingly lost touch with reality IMO.
    What else can she say. It is most unlikely she will lead into the GE, indeed I hope she will stand down on her own accord after Brexit, but if she says anything other than she will lead into the next GE she has lost what little authority she already has
    I would've thought it'd be better not to saying anything about the leadership one way or another...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960



    It depends on Boris. If Boris runs, then I think Leavers would group around him. Other Leavers would try and if maybe one of them will get more momentum. Either he gets on the ballot (eg wins) or he falls and another Leaver takes his place (and wins).

    But if Boris does not run (because he thinks he does not have enough support) then I think the Leavers might press DD into service. In this scenario, I can see them all agreeing to back him to ensure he is on the ballot. The other Leavers can bide their time knowing that DD is not going to stay long.

    And if Boris turns his coat? He seems to be saying that we are better off being "in"
    I suppose that would be one way to emulate Churchill, albeit on support for Brexit rather than party allegiance.
    It would sway no-one in Parliament, I'd suggest - and just reinforce his reputation for being a tool.

    But I would love to see those same Remainers who have spent two years with Boris as Public Enemy Number One, a rogue and a charlatan devoid of principles, now clutching this principled man to their bosoms.....
  • RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    He was having a very difficult tv interview when he admitted his plans would not allow frictionless trade, but the delays would not be too bad
    The average time it takes customs to clear a non EU shipment at the current time is less than an hour.

    JRM is right.
    You agree then frictionless trade is gone under the ERG plan

    And if so, our car and aerospace industry goes with it

    Madness
    Frictionless trade (for EU trade) was always going to go - it is a consequence of Brexit.

    It won't make much difference to the car and aerospace industries.

    Snip

    The EU may not do the same, but that will be their manufacturing industry they are hurting.
    This last few days has seen a big change in the narrative and it is becoming clear it wll be TM deal or a second referendum. Hard Brexit/WTO will not get through the HOC
    There has been no change of narrative at all - you can't just post the same thing yourself 1000 times and claim the narrative has changed!


    The HoC does not need to approve WTO. It is what will happen, by law, unless a deal is passed.
    So you are watching BBC and Sky, reading the newspapers, listening to the speeches from the head of Jaguar Land Rover, listening live to the TUC conference, and can say the narrative has not changed. Furthermore, of course the HOC can stop this, they are there to protect the national interest and outside of the ERG of max 100, 550 mps are lined against WTO
    Most people do not watch 24-hour news all day. People under 30 don’t watch TV news at all.

    All of the big names tried to scare us about the economic impact of Brexit before the referendum. Of course a no deal Brexit would be hugely disruptive, but that message simply isn’t credible from the mouths that said a mere vote to leave would be disastrous.

    Britain will leave the EU by the mechanisms of EU and British law on 29 March 2019. It doesn’t matter whether MPs approve or not. They should have thought about that before they triggered Article 50.
    Those who make the law can change the law
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    I meant in future elections. I have no vote in any leadership campaign as I am not (and have never been) a member of any party!

    I will, however, admit to canvassing for the Tories in Northampton South back in 1987... but I don't think that counts as being a member.

    But anyway, Davis - even if he never goes before the electorate - would make me question any future vote for the Conservative Party.

    If it gets us through a workable Brexit, then Javid v Corbyn at the election?

    I just think something has to give. You can't have the PM insist on Chequers, senior resignations from Cabinet as a result because it is unworkable, then have her pivot to God-knows-what Plan B whilst still retaining a degree of credibility.

    If May goes Javid would lose to Boris or Mogg with members as all the polls show and No Deal Brexit here we come
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
    Then defeat and Prime Minister Corbyn is inevitable.
    Not on current polls, the Tories lead with both YouGov and Survation this week even after Brexit
    Tories lead by 25% FOUR WEEKS before the general election... Then voters took one look at her "campaign" and that lead melted away faster than snow in June...

    She still got the highest voteshare for the Tories in decades


    Well as Mike is always telling that doesn't matter if Labour is on 40% themselves! :D
    It does as May is still PM not Corbyn
  • GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anazina said:

    I note a repeat of the favourite PB spectacle of armchair brexitists pontificating on their deranged plans, from their safe house in Australia.

    +10
    I just moved to Australia so that Brexiteers could pontificate on PB for 24 hours a day. It is a conspiracy.
    You do not have anything to lose with your Little Englander plans.

    My family has their jobs and prosperity at stake and I do not want my large Scottish family to vote to leave the UK
    Then you will be delighted to hear that Barnier believes that if the UK was not subject to EU regulation the country would have a huge competitive advantage over the EU. So you will be richer and your Scottish family will not want to leave the UK.
    Believe me I know my Scottish family and Scotland and your nonsense would see a huge boost for Independence.
    Not a problem. If the Scots vote for independence, we simply decide it is too difficult to implement and make them have a second referendum :)
    :D
    That is just the Little Englander attitude that will see Scotland and Northern Ireland leave the UK
    To be honest (and Malc will back me up on this) I've always been intensely relaxed about Scotland leaving the Union.

    If they want to go then good luck to them. Same with Northern Ireland.

    I would prefer we all stay together but if they want to do something else then that's up to them. You can't keep people reconciled when they don't want to be reconciled.
    So Brexiteers are happy to facilitate the breaking up of the Union as well as trashing manufacturing
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    He was having a very difficult tv interview when he admitted his plans would not allow frictionless trade, but the delays would not be too bad
    The average time it takes customs to clear a non EU shipment at the current time is less than an hour.

    JRM is right.
    You agree then frictionless trade is gone under the ERG plan

    And if so, our car and aerospace industry goes with it

    Madness
    Frictionless trade (for EU trade) was always going to go - it is a consequence of Brexit.

    It won't make much difference to the car and aerospace industries.

    Snip

    The EU may not do the same, but that will be their manufacturing industry they are hurting.
    This last few days has seen a big change in the narrative and it is becoming clear it wll be TM deal or a second referendum. Hard Brexit/WTO will not get through the HOC
    There has been no change of narrative at all - you can't just post the same thing yourself 1000 times and claim the narrative has changed!


    The HoC does not need to approve WTO. It is what will happen, by law, unless a deal is passed.
    So you are watching BBC and Sky, reading the newspapers, listening to the speeches from the head of Jaguar Land Rover, listening live to the TUC conference, and can say the narrative has not changed. Furthermore, of course the HOC can stop this, they are there to protect the national interest and outside of the ERG of max 100, 550 mps are lined against WTO
    Most people do not watch 24-hour news all day. People under 30 don’t watch TV news at all.

    All of the big names tried to scare us about the economic impact of Brexit before the referendum. Of course a no deal Brexit would be hugely disruptive, but that message simply isn’t credible from the mouths that said a mere vote to leave would be disastrous.

    Britain will leave the EU by the mechanisms of EU and British law on 29 March 2019. It doesn’t matter whether MPs approve or not. They should have thought about that before they triggered Article 50.
    Those who make the law can change the law
    British MPs don’t make European law.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
    Keep your eye on the non-Boris and non-JRM Brexiteers - McVay, Mourdant, Raab (if he quits over May's upcoming sellout), Baker. If Boris falls over I suspect one of them might get the crown. May is going to be toast unless she moves to CETA.
    She won't as the DUP will veto CETA as it requires a border in the Irish sea
    Try and keep up. CETA (and any deal) requires the EU to back down on the backstop. CETA does not require a border in the Irish Sea.

    The backstop will have to go if there is to be a deal - it won't pass Parliament.
    Which as the EU is not going to back down on the backstop as Barnier has made clear umpteen times makes your point irrelevant. A single market and customs union in all but name deal with a fudge on free movement will get through Parliament, Labour Remainers oppose CETA and Chequers as it does not include services
    There has been basically zero progress since the day May offered the backstop. This is because it is un-agreeable. If the backstop is just for NI, the DUP will vote the Tories out of office. If it is for the UK as a whole, it basically locks us into the EU forever unless the EU decide to let us out - that is not Brexit and there is no way that May can survive that. So she has tried to get a time limited backstop which the UK can end at their choice. That is what she promised her MPs in writing. Barnier said no.

    Unless the backstop is withdrawn, or basically can be ended unilaterally by the UK, it cannot pass Parliament. That is why there has still been no progress. Either Barnier backs down or No Deal.

    On another note, when Chequers came out you were outraged. Now, you are happy with a further sellout that keeps us in the CU as well. Did you get a call from CCHQ telling you that you had been a naughty boy? What is the point of being interested in politics if you climb down on your positions all the time?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256



    It depends on Boris. If Boris runs, then I think Leavers would group around him. Other Leavers would try and if maybe one of them will get more momentum. Either he gets on the ballot (eg wins) or he falls and another Leaver takes his place (and wins).

    But if Boris does not run (because he thinks he does not have enough support) then I think the Leavers might press DD into service. In this scenario, I can see them all agreeing to back him to ensure he is on the ballot. The other Leavers can bide their time knowing that DD is not going to stay long.

    And if Boris turns his coat? He seems to be saying that we are better off being "in"
    I suppose that would be one way to emulate Churchill, albeit on support for Brexit rather than party allegiance.
    It would sway no-one in Parliament, I'd suggest - and just reinforce his reputation for being a tool.

    But I would love to see those same Remainers who have spent two years with Boris as Public Enemy Number One, a rogue and a charlatan devoid of principles, now clutching this principled man to their bosoms.....
    I would love to see the reaction of Leavers to this "rogue and a charlatan devoid of principles" whom they have clutched to their bosums for the last two years if he switches sides
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:



    I am not a big fan of McDonnell's economic plans, but if I was in the gig economy he would have my interest and attention after his speech today.

    And if McDonnell then implemented his economic plans if you are working in the gig economy you would likely soon find yourself on the dole as companies will not hire with the number of regulations and rights and benefits McDonnell is proposing for non permanent workers.


    Southern European migrants are here because the jobs in the gig economy are better than the unemployment they have as the alternative back home
    This is a bit like the argument we heard before the minimum wage that employers would close down rather than pay it. In reality, most employers will check their business models to see that they're still valid and then carry on - the saving that they make by NOT providing fringe benefits to gig workers will be a marginal effect for most. Do you know anyone who actually says things like "I can only afford to run my business because I don't need to cover maternity leave"?

    Naturally they don't if they don't have to - I concluded long ago that it was a waste of time to blame anyone for trying to make money in whatever the current system is. But if they do have to, not many are going to close down on that account.
  • GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anazina said:

    I note a repeat of the favourite PB spectacle of armchair brexitists pontificating on their deranged plans, from their safe house in Australia.

    +10
    I just moved to Australia so that Brexiteers could pontificate on PB for 24 hours a day. It is a conspiracy.
    You do not have anything to lose with your Little Englander plans.

    My family has their jobs and prosperity at stake and I do not want my large Scottish family to vote to leave the UK
    Then you will be delighted to hear that Barnier believes that if the UK was not subject to EU regulation the country would have a huge competitive advantage over the EU. So you will be richer and your Scottish family will not want to leave the UK.
    Believe me I know my Scottish family and Scotland and your nonsense would see a huge boost for Independence.
    Not a problem. If the Scots vote for independence, we simply decide it is too difficult to implement and make them have a second referendum :)
    :D
    That is just the Little Englander attitude that will see Scotland and Northern Ireland leave the UK
    To be honest (and Malc will back me up on this) I've always been intensely relaxed about Scotland leaving the Union.

    If they want to go then good luck to them. Same with Northern Ireland.

    I would prefer we all stay together but if they want to do something else then that's up to them. You can't keep people reconciled when they don't want to be reconciled.
    So Brexiteers are happy to facilitate the breaking up of the Union as well as trashing manufacturing
    I think it is more correct to say that Brexiteers are democrats and would respect the will of the people. Probably why we expect to, you know, leave the EU.
  • RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    He was having a very difficult tv interview when he admitted his plans would not allow frictionless trade, but the delays would not be too bad
    The average time it takes customs to clear a non EU shipment at the current time is less than an hour.

    JRM is right.
    You agree then frictionless trade is gone under the ERG plan

    And if so, our car and aerospace industry goes with it

    Madness
    Frictionless trade (for EU trade) was always going to go - it is a consequence of Brexit.

    It won't make much difference to the car and aerospace industries.

    Snip

    The EU may not do the same, but that will be their manufacturing industry they are hurting.
    This last few days has seen a big change in the narrative and it is becoming clear it wll be TM deal or a second referendum. Hard Brexit/WTO will not get through the HOC
    There has been no change of narrative at all - you can't just post the same thing yourself 1000 times and claim the narrative has changed!


    The HoC does not need to approve WTO. It is what will happen, by law, unless a deal is passed.
    So you are watching BBC and Sky, reading the newspapers, listening to the speeches from the head of Jaguar Land Rover, listening live to the TUC conference, and can say the narrative has not changed. Furthermore, of course the HOC can stop this, they are there to protect the national interest and outside of the ERG of max 100, 550 mps are lined against WTO
    Most people do not watch 24-hour news all day. People under 30 don’t watch TV news at all.

    All of the big names tried to scare us about the economic impact of Brexit before the referendum. Of course a no deal Brexit would be hugely disruptive, but that message simply isn’t credible from the mouths that said a mere vote to leave would be disastrous.

    Britain will leave the EU by the mechanisms of EU and British law on 29 March 2019. It doesn’t matter whether MPs approve or not. They should have thought about that before they triggered Article 50.
    Those who make the law can change the law
    British MPs don’t make European law.
    They can stop Brexit in the HOC and the EU would be overjoyed


  • It depends on Boris. If Boris runs, then I think Leavers would group around him. Other Leavers would try and if maybe one of them will get more momentum. Either he gets on the ballot (eg wins) or he falls and another Leaver takes his place (and wins).

    But if Boris does not run (because he thinks he does not have enough support) then I think the Leavers might press DD into service. In this scenario, I can see them all agreeing to back him to ensure he is on the ballot. The other Leavers can bide their time knowing that DD is not going to stay long.

    And if Boris turns his coat? He seems to be saying that we are better off being "in"
    I suppose that would be one way to emulate Churchill, albeit on support for Brexit rather than party allegiance.
    It would sway no-one in Parliament, I'd suggest - and just reinforce his reputation for being a tool.

    But I would love to see those same Remainers who have spent two years with Boris as Public Enemy Number One, a rogue and a charlatan devoid of principles, now clutching this principled man to their bosoms.....
    It would be great political theatre... or at least pantomime.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
    Keep your eye on the non-Boris and non-JRM Brexiteers - McVay, Mourdant, Raab (if he quits over May's upcoming sellout), Baker. If Boris falls over I suspect one of them might get the crown. May is going to be toast unless she moves to CETA.
    She won't as the DUP will veto CETA as it requires a border in the Irish sea
    Try and keep up. CETA (and any deal) requires the EU to back down on the backstop. CETA does not require a border in the Irish Sea.

    The backstop will have to go if there is to be a deal - it won't pass Parliament.
    The crux of any deal going through Parliament is whether Parliament is waiving its right to amend the final Brexit deal. Can Parliament bind its successors by signing the deal and enacting as a Treaty?

    Locking us into a deal on the Irish border that cannot be re-opened - and effectively nullifies Brexit - will be too much to take. But that is where May has us right now.
    I very much doubt she will lock us into a deal on the Irish border in the actual deal
    Sorry? Which deal are you talking about? If the backstop is not in the withdrawal agreement then happy days - we can just have CETA. Are you now saying that May will not agree the backstop?
  • GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anazina said:

    I note a repeat of the favourite PB spectacle of armchair brexitists pontificating on their deranged plans, from their safe house in Australia.

    +10
    I just moved to Australia so that Brexiteers could pontificate on PB for 24 hours a day. It is a conspiracy.
    You do not have anything to lose with your Little Englander plans.

    My family has their jobs and prosperity at stake and I do not want my large Scottish family to vote to leave the UK
    Then you will be delighted to hear that Barnier believes that if the UK was not subject to EU regulation the country would have a huge competitive advantage over the EU. So you will be richer and your Scottish family will not want to leave the UK.
    Believe me I know my Scottish family and Scotland and your nonsense would see a huge boost for Independence.
    Not a problem. If the Scots vote for independence, we simply decide it is too difficult to implement and make them have a second referendum :)
    :D
    That is just the Little Englander attitude that will see Scotland and Northern Ireland leave the UK
    To be honest (and Malc will back me up on this) I've always been intensely relaxed about Scotland leaving the Union.

    If they want to go then good luck to them. Same with Northern Ireland.

    I would prefer we all stay together but if they want to do something else then that's up to them. You can't keep people reconciled when they don't want to be reconciled.
    So Brexiteers are happy to facilitate the breaking up of the Union as well as trashing manufacturing
    I think it is more correct to say that Brexiteers are democrats and would respect the will of the people. Probably why we expect to, you know, leave the EU.
    So you are happy to hear the view of the people on the deal then
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,233
    edited September 2018

    But there are better options than either, which is why I'm not too worried at this stage.

    OK, I'll bite. Who are the "better options"?

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anazina said:

    I note a repeat of the favourite PB spectacle of armchair brexitists pontificating on their deranged plans, from their safe house in Australia.

    +10
    I just moved to Australia so that Brexiteers could pontificate on PB for 24 hours a day. It is a conspiracy.
    You do not have anything to lose with your Little Englander plans.

    My family has their jobs and prosperity at stake and I do not want my large Scottish family to vote to leave the UK
    Then you will be delighted to hear that Barnier believes that if the UK was not subject to EU regulation the country would have a huge competitive advantage over the EU. So you will be richer and your Scottish family will not want to leave the UK.
    Believe me I know my Scottish family and Scotland and your nonsense would see a huge boost for Independence.
    Not a problem. If the Scots vote for independence, we simply decide it is too difficult to implement and make them have a second referendum :)
    :D
    That is just the Little Englander attitude that will see Scotland and Northern Ireland leave the UK
    To be honest (and Malc will back me up on this) I've always been intensely relaxed about Scotland leaving the Union.

    If they want to go then good luck to them. Same with Northern Ireland.

    I would prefer we all stay together but if they want to do something else then that's up to them. You can't keep people reconciled when they don't want to be reconciled.
    So Brexiteers are happy to facilitate the breaking up of the Union as well as trashing manufacturing
    Nothing must detract from Brexit. Personally I am surprised that thry have not filled in the Channel Tunnel and blockaded all the ferry ports in the south east :D
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    He was having a very difficult tv interview when he admitted his plans would not allow frictionless trade, but the delays would not be too bad
    The average time it takes customs to clear a non EU shipment at the current time is less than an hour.

    JRM is right.
    You agree then frictionless trade is gone under the ERG plan

    And if so, our car and aerospace industry goes with it

    Madness
    Frictionless trade (for EU trade) was always going to go - it is a consequence of Brexit.

    It won't make much difference to the car and aerospace industries.

    Snip

    The EU may not do the same, but that will be their manufacturing industry they are hurting.
    This last few days has seen a big change in the narrative and it is becoming clear it wll be TM deal or a second referendum. Hard Brexit/WTO will not get through the HOC
    There has been no change of narrative at all - you can't just post the same thing yourself 1000 times and claim the narrative has changed!


    The HoC does not need to approve WTO. It is what will happen, by law, unless a deal is passed.
    Most people do not watch 24-hour news all day. People under 30 don’t watch TV news at all.

    All of the big names tried to scare us about the economic impact of Brexit before the referendum. Of course a no deal Brexit would be hugely disruptive, but that message simply isn’t credible from the mouths that said a mere vote to leave would be disastrous.

    Britain will leave the EU by the mechanisms of EU and British law on 29 March 2019. It doesn’t matter whether MPs approve or not. They should have thought about that before they triggered Article 50.
    Those who make the law can change the law
    British MPs don’t make European law.
    They can stop Brexit in the HOC and the EU would be overjoyed
    How does an Act of Parliament for a second referendum pass in the time we have left?

    It won’t. If May is brought down, we get a hard Brexit PM.

    The only way we get a second referendum is if rebel Tory MPs put Corbyn into Downing Street to do it.
  • It is long past time to switch off the light

    I do wish everyone a pleasant nights rest, even the hardest of Brexiteers would you believe

    Good night folks
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    I think it is more correct to say that Brexiteers are democrats and would respect the will of the people. Probably why we expect to, you know, leave the EU.

    Will you be leaving Australia to live here in the post-Brexit paradise that you espouse so fervently?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
    Keep your eye on the non-Boris and non-JRM Brexiteers - McVay, Mourdant, Raab (if he quits over May's upcoming sellout), Baker. If Boris falls over I suspect one of them might get the crown. May is going to be toast unless she moves to CETA.
    She won't as the DUP will veto CETA as it requires a border in the Irish sea
    Try and keep up. CETA (and any deal) requires the EU to back down on the backstop. CETA does not require a border in the Irish Sea.

    The backstop will have to go if there is to be a deal - it won't pass Parliament.
    The crux of any deal going through Parliament is whether Parliament is waiving its right to amend the final Brexit deal. Can Parliament bind its successors by signing the deal and enacting as a Treaty?

    Locking us into a deal on the Irish border that cannot be re-opened - and effectively nullifies Brexit - will be too much to take. But that is where May has us right now.
    I very much doubt she will lock us into a deal on the Irish border in the actual deal
    Sorry? Which deal are you talking about? If the backstop is not in the withdrawal agreement then happy days - we can just have CETA. Are you now saying that May will not agree the backstop?
    The backstop is just that, a back-up in case the final trade deal would otherwise result in a hard border between Ireland and the UK.

    If the final deal avoids that then the backstop is of no consequence. Since our manufacturing industry also wants to avoid such a border it really shouldn't be so difficult to agree to such a trade deal.

    Everyone wins.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited September 2018

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
    Keep your eye on the non-Boris and non-JRM Brexiteers - McVay, Mourdant, Raab (if he quits over May's upcoming sellout), Baker. If Boris falls over I suspect one of them might get the crown. May is going to be toast unless she moves to CETA.
    She won't as the DUP will veto CETA as it requires a border in the Irish sea
    Try and keep up. CETA (and any deal) requires the EU to back down on the backstop. CETA does not require a border in the Irish Sea.

    The backstop will have to go if there is to be a deal - it won't pass Parliament.
    The crux of any deal going through Parliament is whether Parliament is waiving its right to amend the final Brexit deal. Can Parliament bind its successors by signing the deal and enacting as a Treaty?

    Locking us into a deal on the Irish border that cannot be re-opened - and effectively nullifies Brexit - will be too much to take. But that is where May has us right now.
    I very much doubt she will lock us into a deal on the Irish border in the actual deal
    Sorry? Which deal are you talking about? If the backstop is not in the withdrawal agreement then happy days - we can just have CETA. Are you now saying that May will not agree the backstop?
    No we cannot, as the EU will not allow a withdrawal agreement without a backstop and the only FTA they will allow requires a border in the Irish sea which the DUP will veto
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight says May will announce at party conference that she will take the Tories into the next election.

    If she puts that in her speech you can imagine the conference hall sitting there in stony silence.

    The woman who blew a 25% poll lead in four weeks against Jeremy Corbyn thinks they will let her face the electorate again? Really?
    Given the likely alternative is Boris and No Deal Brexit I can well see May leading the Tories at the next general election now
    Keep your eye on the non-Boris and ns she moves to CETA.
    She won't as the DUP will veto CETA as it requires a border in the Irish sea
    Try and keep up. CETA (and any deal) re be a deal - it won't pass Parliament.
    Which as the EU is not going to movement will get through Parliament, Labour Remainers oppose CETA and Chequers as it does not include services
    There has been basically zero progress since the day May offered the backstop. This is because it is un-agreeable. If the backstop is just for NI, the DUP will vote the Tories out of office. If it is for the UK as a whole, it basically locks us into the EU forever unless the EU decide to let us out - that is not Brexit and there is no way that May can survive that. So she has tried to get a time limited backstop which the UK can end at their choice. That is what she promised her MPs in writing. Barnier said no.

    Unless the backstop is withdrawn, or basically can be ended unilaterally by the UK, it cannot pass Parliament. That is why there has still been no progress. Either Barnier backs down or No Deal.

    On another note, when Chequers came out you were outraged. Now, you are happy with a further sellout that keeps us in the CU as well. Did you get a call from CCHQ telling you that you had been a naughty boy? What is the point of being interested in politics if you climb down on your positions all the time?
    It will most likely be for the UK as a whole but we will largely stay in the single market and customs union anyway with the withdrawal agreement and transition deal with a work permit and study deal on arrival requirement. That type of Deal would be enough for most Labour Remainers as it includes services, unlike Chequers.

    I was not outraged by Chequers I just thought it would see mass Tory movement to UKIP, in the end the Tory movement to UKIP was not as much as I thought. On the terms of the deal itself I was less concerned
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited September 2018

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:



    I am not a big fan of McDonnell's economic plans, but if I was in the gig economy he would have my interest and attention after his speech today.

    And if McDonnell then implemented his economic plans if you are working in the gig economy you would likely soon find yourself on the dole as companies will not hire with the number of regulations and rights and benefits McDonnell is proposing for non permanent workers.


    Southern European migrants are here because the jobs in the gig economy are better than the unemployment they have as the alternative back home
    This is a bit like the argument we heard before the minimum wage that employers would close down rather than pay it. In reality, most employers will check their business models to see that they're still valid and then carry on - the saving that they make by NOT providing fringe benefits to gig workers will be a marginal effect for most. Do you know anyone who actually says things like "I can only afford to run my business because I don't need to cover maternity leave"?

    Naturally they don't if they don't have to - I concluded long ago that it was a waste of time to blame anyone for trying to make money in whatever the current system is. But if they do have to, not many are going to close down on that account.
    At the level the minimum wage was set, already some businesses have complained about the new living wage pushing up their costs eg Jamie Oliver's business which has closed restaurants as a result. A minimum wage is fine provided not too high.

    Gig jobs are often a route into work as employers can call on them at any time with no costs and flexibly for the job needed, adding masses of rights reduces that and their viability so less would be hired. Plus using them as a route as a means to permanent employment which does have all the rights would be gone as there would be fewer such jobs available
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:



    The average time it takes customs to clear a non EU shipment at the current time is less than an hour.

    JRM is right.

    You agree then frictionless trade is gone under the ERG plan

    And if so, our car and aerospace industry goes with it

    Madness
    Frictionless trade (for EU trade) was always going to go - it is a consequence of Brexit.

    It won't make much difference to the car and aerospace industries.

    Snip

    The EU may not do the same, but that will be their manufacturing industry they are hurting.
    This last few days has seen a big change in the narrative and it is becoming clear it wll be TM deal or a second referendum. Hard Brexit/WTO will not get through the HOC
    There has been no change of narrative at all - you can't just post the same thing yourself 1000 times and claim the narrative has changed!


    The HoC does not need to approve WTO. It is what will happen, by law, unless a deal is passed.
    Most people do not watch 24-hour news all day. People under 30 don’t watch TV news at all.

    All of the big names tried to scare us about the economic impact of Brexit before the referendum. Of course a no deal Brexit would be hugely disruptive, but that message simply isn’t credible from the mouths that said a mere vote to leave would be disastrous.

    Britain will leave the EU by the mechanisms of EU and British law on 29 March 2019. It doesn’t matter whether MPs approve or not. They should have thought about that before they triggered Article 50.
    Those who make the law can change the law
    British MPs don’t make European law.
    They can stop Brexit in the HOC and the EU would be overjoyed
    How does an Act of Parliament for a second referendum pass in the time we have left?

    It won’t. If May is brought down, we get a hard Brexit PM.

    The only way we get a second referendum is if rebel Tory MPs put Corbyn into Downing Street to do it.
    Parliament can pass, and has passed, significant and far-reaching legislation in a very short time indeed when emergency situations require it. Cf DORA 1914 and the Emergency Powers Act 1939. Both were passed in one day if I recall correctly.


  • Try and keep up. CETA (and any deal) requires the EU to back down on the backstop. CETA does not require a border in the Irish Sea.

    The backstop will have to go if there is to be a deal - it won't pass Parliament.

    The crux of any deal going through Parliament is whether Parliament is waiving its right to amend the final Brexit deal. Can Parliament bind its successors by signing the deal and enacting as a Treaty?

    Locking us into a deal on the Irish border that cannot be re-opened - and effectively nullifies Brexit - will be too much to take. But that is where May has us right now.
    I very much doubt she will lock us into a deal on the Irish border in the actual deal
    Sorry? Which deal are you talking about? If the backstop is not in the withdrawal agreement then happy days - we can just have CETA. Are you now saying that May will not agree the backstop?
    The backstop is just that, a back-up in case the final trade deal would otherwise result in a hard border between Ireland and the UK.

    If the final deal avoids that then the backstop is of no consequence. Since our manufacturing industry also wants to avoid such a border it really shouldn't be so difficult to agree to such a trade deal.

    Everyone wins.
    No, the backstop is designed to allow the EU to refuse to implement the political declaration on the grounds that it will not solve the NI border. It is, as Boris said, a suicide vest. It is designed to force the UK to accept permanent vassal status.

    The only way the EU have ever said that will solve the NI border is for the UK to remain in the CU. Since this is against Government policy, the backstop cannot be agreed. If May agrees to a CU, pretty much all her cabinet Leavers resign.

    There is no way forward for the NI backstop. That is why the ERG are hammering it this week.
  • HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:



    I am not a big fan of McDonnell's economic plans, but if I was in the gig economy he would have my interest and attention after his speech today.

    And if McDonnell then implemented his economic plans if you are working in the gig economy you would likely soon find yourself on the dole as companies will not hire with the number of regulations and rights and benefits McDonnell is proposing for non permanent workers.


    Southern European migrants are here because the jobs in the gig economy are better than the unemployment they have as the alternative back home
    This is a bit like the argument we heard before the minimum wage that employers would close down rather than pay it. In reality, most employers will check their business models to see that they're still valid and then carry on - the saving that they make by NOT providing fringe benefits to gig workers will be a marginal effect for most. Do you know anyone who actually says things like "I can only afford to run my business because I don't need to cover maternity leave"?

    Naturally they don't if they don't have to - I concluded long ago that it was a waste of time to blame anyone for trying to make money in whatever the current system is. But if they do have to, not many are going to close down on that account.
    Sorry, but that is a classic Labour viewpoint and absolutely wrong. In Australia unfortunately we have a IR system run by the Unions and as a business operator I can tell you that every single day we withdraw hours from staff because of the high costs of labour. We have to pay penalty rates on weekend - so we close. We run with as few full time staff as possible because full time staff entitlements are ridiculous. The effects are marginal for big business, because most of them have such market power they can just pass on additional costs. But for SMEs, which are where the growth in the economy actually occurs, higher wage costs are deadly.

    I have an idea. If politicians (or ex politicians...) want workers to have more money, why don't you just raise more in tax and spend it that way? Because it is unpopular, and much easier to pretend that business should pay more. But there is no basis for it. Why on earth should business pay for maternity leave and other personal life choices? It is nothing to do with employment. It is just a way for gutless politicians to get popular without having to take ownership of their decisions.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Well played Cook. We'll miss you.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    A quiet scene. Archer101au is having his breakfast, English tea, English bacon, English toast, and English butter.

    Disaster! The tea has been knocked over.

    "The EU knocked over my tea," declares archer101au.
    "No dear," his wife says, "you just nudged it with your elbow."
    "Ah, but they made me do it. They used the dastardly backstop to make me do their bidding. I am no longer responsible for my actions. It was them imposing stuff on me."
    "Yes dear, of course it was. Would you like some Lurpak?"
    "THAT'S EU BUTTER. NEVER. NEVER. NEVER."
    "Yes dear, I forgot."
  • rcs1000 said:

    "Ah, but they made me do it. They used the dastardly backstop to make me do their bidding. I am no longer responsible for my actions. It was them imposing stuff on me."

    You may mock, but it was your proposal to start building customs posts on the Irish border to show we're serious...
  • rcs1000 said:

    A quiet scene. Archer101au is having his breakfast, English tea, English bacon, English toast, and English butter.

    Disaster! The tea has been knocked over.

    "The EU knocked over my tea," declares archer101au.
    "No dear," his wife says, "you just nudged it with your elbow."
    "Ah, but they made me do it. They used the dastardly backstop to make me do their bidding. I am no longer responsible for my actions. It was them imposing stuff on me."
    "Yes dear, of course it was. Would you like some Lurpak?"
    "THAT'S EU BUTTER. NEVER. NEVER. NEVER."
    "Yes dear, I forgot."

    Would have been funnier if it made sense. I have always advocated rejecting the backstop and leaving with No Deal if the EU will not agree CETA. So why would I be complaining that the EU are imposing stuff on me?

    BTW if I am eating English bacon how is this possible? It should be impossible for me to import British bacon here because according to Remainers it would never get through customs before it went off.

    And we eat Australian butter here. And you forgot the Union Jack tablecloth and underpants (imported from China under WTO rules).
  • GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anazina said:

    I note a repeat of the favourite PB spectacle of armchair brexitists pontificating on their deranged plans, from their safe house in Australia.

    +10
    I just moved to Australia so that Brexiteers could pontificate on PB for 24 hours a day. It is a conspiracy.
    You do not have anything to lose with your Little Englander plans.

    My family has their jobs and prosperity at stake and I do not want my large Scottish family to vote to leave the UK
    Then you will be delighted to hear that Barnier believes that if the UK was not subject to EU regulation the country would have a huge competitive advantage over the EU. So you will be richer and your Scottish family will not want to leave the UK.
    Believe me I know my Scottish family and Scotland and your nonsense would see a huge boost for Independence.
    Not a problem. If the Scots vote for independence, we simply decide it is too difficult to implement and make them have a second referendum :)
    :D
    That is just the Little Englander attitude that will see Scotland and Northern Ireland leave the UK
    To be honest (and Malc will back me up on this) I've always been intensely relaxed about Scotland leaving the Union.

    If they want to go then good luck to them. Same with Northern Ireland.

    I would prefer we all stay together but if they want to do something else then that's up to them. You can't keep people reconciled when they don't want to be reconciled.
    So Brexiteers are happy to facilitate the breaking up of the Union as well as trashing manufacturing
    Nothing must detract from Brexit. Personally I am surprised that thry have not filled in the Channel Tunnel and blockaded all the ferry ports in the south east :D
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MNZALcCzSg
  • Made my first ever railway foray into Cornwall on Tuesday, despite the drizzly, dull, grey weather. Decided to do the Gunnislake and Falmouth branches, also doing the main line as far as Truro. Slumming it in Plymouth for the next couple of days :)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:



    I am not a big fan of McDonnell's economic plans, but if I was in the gig economy he would have my interest and attention after his speech today.

    And if McDonnell then implemented his economic plans if you are working in the gig economy you would likely soon find yourself on the dole as companies will not hire with the number of regulations and rights and benefits McDonnell is proposing for non permanent workers.


    Southern European migrants are here because the jobs in the gig economy are better than the unemployment they have as the alternative back home
    This is a bit like the argument we heard before the minimum wage that employers would close down rather than pay it. In reality, most employers will check their business models to see that they're still valid and then carry on - the saving that they make by NOT providing fringe benefits to gig workers will be a marginal effect for most. Do you know anyone who actually says things like "I can only afford to run my business because I don't need to cover maternity leave"?

    Naturally they don't if they don't have to - I concluded long ago that it was a waste of time to blame anyone for trying to make money in whatever the current system is. But if they do have to, not many are going to close down on that account.
    Sorry, but that is a classic Labour viewpoint and absolutely wrong. In Australia unfortunately we have a IR system run by the Unions and as a business operator I can tell you that every single day we withdraw hours from staff because of the high costs of labour. We have to pay penalty rates on weekend - so we close. We run with as few full time staff as possible because full time staff entitlements are ridiculous. The effects are marginal for big business, because most of them have such market power they can just pass on additional costs. But for SMEs, which are where the growth in the economy actually occurs, higher wage costs are deadly....
    Is it really true that businesses which struggle to pay wages are the ones which provide significant growth in the economy ?
    Colour me sceptical.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    rcs1000 said:

    A quiet scene. Archer101au is having his breakfast, English tea, English bacon, English toast, and English butter.

    Disaster! The tea has been knocked over.

    "The EU knocked over my tea," declares archer101au.
    "No dear," his wife says, "you just nudged it with your elbow."
    "Ah, but they made me do it. They used the dastardly backstop to make me do their bidding. I am no longer responsible for my actions. It was them imposing stuff on me."
    "Yes dear, of course it was. Would you like some Lurpak?"
    "THAT'S EU BUTTER. NEVER. NEVER. NEVER."
    "Yes dear, I forgot."

    Would have been funnier if it made sense. I have always advocated rejecting the backstop and leaving with No Deal if the EU will not agree CETA. So why would I be complaining that the EU are imposing stuff on me?

    BTW if I am eating English bacon how is this possible? It should be impossible for me to import British bacon here because according to Remainers it would never get through customs before it went off.

    And we eat Australian butter here. And you forgot the Union Jack tablecloth and underpants (imported from China under WTO rules).
    A better critique of Robert’s piss take than your mildly humourless response might be that he made common cause with you when voting in the referendum...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Nigelb said:



    This is a bit like the argument we heard before the minimum wage that employers would close down rather than pay it. In reality, most employers will check their business models to see that they're still valid and then carry on - the saving that they make by NOT providing fringe benefits to gig workers will be a marginal effect for most. Do you know anyone who actually says things like "I can only afford to run my business because I don't need to cover maternity leave"?

    Naturally they don't if they don't have to - I concluded long ago that it was a waste of time to blame anyone for trying to make money in whatever the current system is. But if they do have to, not many are going to close down on that account.

    Sorry, but that is a classic Labour viewpoint and absolutely wrong. In Australia unfortunately we have a IR system run by the Unions and as a business operator I can tell you that every single day we withdraw hours from staff because of the high costs of labour. We have to pay penalty rates on weekend - so we close. We run with as few full time staff as possible because full time staff entitlements are ridiculous. The effects are marginal for big business, because most of them have such market power they can just pass on additional costs. But for SMEs, which are where the growth in the economy actually occurs, higher wage costs are deadly....
    Is it really true that businesses which struggle to pay wages are the ones which provide significant growth in the economy ?
    Colour me sceptical.
    It’s poorly phrased and elides the specific with the general

    SMEs as a group contribute the majority of growth - but this also involves some firms flourishing and others falling back

    It’s also the case that big firms prefer high regulations (and non-wage entitlements can be seen as a form of that) and preferably on a multinational basis. My brother’s firm, which operates in a highly regulated sector, for example, competes very effectively with some of the largest firms in the country. He finds they lobby very hard to increase regulatory complexity - partly because an extra £1m of costs is meaningless to them but painful to him, and partly because it is a barrier to entry for new competitors

    But @archer101au assertion that business should not pay for “lifestyle choices” such as maternity leave is, shall we say, on one extreme of the spectrum. Personally I prefer to invest in high quality staff as I don’t want to have to rehire and then train replacements.
This discussion has been closed.