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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Who will be Time person of the year 2018?

SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited September 12 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Who will be Time person of the year 2018?

I’ve been looking at William Hill’s market on who will be the Time person of the year and my tip is out of that lot is Robert Mueller at 25/1.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,270
    First?
  • Vladimir Putin makes more appeal than most of the list. Mueller will need to do something more significant in the next couple of months.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 20,111
    Little Rocket Man....
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,164
    Crap list. Jacob Rees-Mogg absent entirely!!
  • John McCain would be my tip -- if posthumous awards can be made.
  • That's a ridiculously UK-centric list from Wm Hill. But then, I suppose they are trying to make money from gullible UK punters.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,705
    Most important news story of the day for the vast majority of PBers:

    Cornwall Council adds apostrophe to Land's End

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-45499594
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,668
    It's going to be someone that US readers will have heard of. That rules out quite a few of those listed.

    But this is one of those markets which it's much better not to play. The winner might not yet be listed at all.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,869
    Elon Musk looks terrible value at 2-1. Perhaps next year if he

    a) Stops libelling people on twitter
    b) Commercial crew is a success and Tesla heads north in value.

    But not this year.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,869
    Who is Emma Gonzalez and what has she done ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,869
    Barnier, Tusk, Farage, Blair, Corbyn I think one can rule out pretty much instantly. Probably May and Merkel too.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Who is Emma Gonzalez and what has she done ?

    School shooting survivor and made a speech arguing for gun control.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,478

    Most important news story of the day for the vast majority of PBers:

    Cornwall Council adds apostrophe to Land's End

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-45499594

    It's nice to know local councils are getting their priorities right these days.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,740
    Pulpstar said:

    Who is Emma Gonzalez and what has she done ?

    An everyday person thrown into a sad situation, who is trying to use the horrible experience for good. And who is getting the expected grief for doing so.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emma_González
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,978
    edited September 12
    Hmm. After reading the list, but before reading the article or comments, my inclinations were towards Kaepernick[sp] and Serena Williams.

    Mueller could also make sense. Hmm. Maybe a pound a time, for each.

    Edited extra bit: no Ladbrokes market?

    Edited extra bit 2: whilst browsing around, surprised to see an ESports market. If anyone here follows that sort of thing, may be worth a look.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,808
    Serena Williams for the sisterhood vote.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 20,752

    Pulpstar said:

    Who is Emma Gonzalez and what has she done ?

    An everyday person thrown into a sad situation, who is trying to use the horrible experience for good. And who is getting the expected grief for doing so.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emma_González
    I can see that appealing to the folks at Time.
  • If Time are feeling mischievous, they could award it to The Indicted.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 5,619
    Jeff Bezos. Amazon became the second trillion dollar company after Apple recently. He is consequently the world's richest man (among those with publicly declared wealth), owns the Washington Post - thus helping to protect the Press from wannabe demagogues like Trump - and is a bit like Musk with his own rocket company without being an obnoxious twat. Amazon also big in cloud computing (a big deal unnoticed by most people) and with Alexa is changing homes across America. Has Amazon Instant Video also recently made a play for sports rights in the US?

    There is a lot going on there that affects the life of your average American.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,869
    How do I vote for Jordan Peterson :D ?
  • Most important news story of the day for the vast majority of PBers:

    Cornwall Council adds apostrophe to Land's End

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-45499594

    The knock-on costs in terms of printing new stationery, updating websites, posters and so on will be significant.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 20,752

    If Time are feeling mischievous, they could award it to The Indicted.

    How about #metoo?

    Haven't they awarded it to a campaign in the past?
  • Jeff Bezos. Amazon became the second trillion dollar company after Apple recently. He is consequently the world's richest man (among those with publicly declared wealth), owns the Washington Post - thus helping to protect the Press from wannabe demagogues like Trump - and is a bit like Musk with his own rocket company without being an obnoxious twat. Amazon also big in cloud computing (a big deal unnoticed by most people) and with Alexa is changing homes across America. Has Amazon Instant Video also recently made a play for sports rights in the US?

    There is a lot going on there that affects the life of your average American.

    Yes, but he won it in 1999. That doesn't rule him out (Obama and G W Bush were each chosen twice), but it makes him a bit less likely. Would be worth a punt if the odds are good.
  • Charles said:

    If Time are feeling mischievous, they could award it to The Indicted.

    How about #metoo?

    Haven't they awarded it to a campaign in the past?
    They did that last time.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,869
    Also where is Alistair Cook on the list ?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 20,752

    Charles said:

    If Time are feeling mischievous, they could award it to The Indicted.

    How about #metoo?

    Haven't they awarded it to a campaign in the past?
    They did that last time.
    Was that really in 2017? Heck time goes fast!
  • Charles said:

    Charles said:

    If Time are feeling mischievous, they could award it to The Indicted.

    How about #metoo?

    Haven't they awarded it to a campaign in the past?
    They did that last time.
    Was that really in 2017? Heck time goes fast!
    Late 2017
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,869
    What odds for a joint award to Kaepernick and Alex Jones this year ?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,043
    HMG announce East West Expressway linking Oxford and Cambridge

    http://www.itv.com/news/meridian/2018-09-12/route-announced-for-oxford-cambridge-expressway/

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,978
    F1: just in case the weather forecast's wrong, I've put tiny sums (literally pence) on the following to 'win' first practice (brackets is the boosted odds, fifth the odds top 3):
    Sirotkin, 1001 (1301)
    Ericsson, 751 (901)
    Stroll, 301 (376)
    Leclerc, 301 (376)

    As I said, tiny stakes, but if it rains it's entirely possible only a few times will get out for a trundle. Forecast is for it to be dry, but the forecasts have been weirdly wrong this year.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,957
    Tories ahead by 3 with ICM, Remain ahead 52-48. On the latter point, it's actually 46-42 without DK/WS, which raises a question I hadn't thought of previously: do the pollsters apply a spiral-of-silence adjustment to Brexit numbers? Should they?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/sep/12/pmqs-may-corbyn-tory-leadership-brexit-gove-issues-call-for-unity-at-brexiter-anger-against-may-intensifies-politics-live
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,869

    HMG announce East West Expressway linking Oxford and Cambridge

    http://www.itv.com/news/meridian/2018-09-12/route-announced-for-oxford-cambridge-expressway/

    Any news on the Tintwhistle bypass ?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,740
    Off-topic:

    "Our engineers mucked up and drilled a hole in a spaceship. To deflect blame, we think an American astronaut did it in space."

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/09/the-russians-are-really-pushing-a-nasa-astronaut-sabotaged-the-iss-theory/

    The Russians are going a bit crazy. I can see cooperation in space ending soon, whatever that means for the ISS.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,978
    Mr. JS, saw that a little while ago. It's a perfectly reasonable theory. If you look at those who suffer learning difficulties, men are disproportionately over-represented. The same occurs at the time end of IQ. The notion that men might have a flatter bell curve with slighter higher ends, and women might have a higher peak in the middle and lower ends, is entirely feasible.

    Some people hate it because it suggests that more of the most intelligent people are men than women. Nobody, of course, has a problem with men being disproportionately violent, stupid, having learning difficulties etc.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 11,070
    Pulpstar said:

    Also where is Alistair Cook on the list ?

    I miss his shows.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,705

    HMG announce East West Expressway linking Oxford and Cambridge

    http://www.itv.com/news/meridian/2018-09-12/route-announced-for-oxford-cambridge-expressway/

    Much more important than linking Manchester and Sheffield.
  • Pulpstar said:

    HMG announce East West Expressway linking Oxford and Cambridge

    http://www.itv.com/news/meridian/2018-09-12/route-announced-for-oxford-cambridge-expressway/

    Any news on the Tintwhistle bypass ?
    Wasn't he the bassist with The Who?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 19,702
    edited September 12
    This seems quite a good summary of the state of play of the Brexit negotiations:

    https://www.cer.eu/in-the-press/theresa-mays-chequers-plan-may-yet-have-some-life-it
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,515
    They've given it to "you" before (as in the people who produce content on the internet) so maybe they could give it to "bots" and make the story all about the manipulation of social media for political ends.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,043

    HMG announce East West Expressway linking Oxford and Cambridge

    http://www.itv.com/news/meridian/2018-09-12/route-announced-for-oxford-cambridge-expressway/

    Much more important than linking Manchester and Sheffield.
    this is all north of London

    Northern Powerhouse :-)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,869

    Off-topic:
    "Our engineers mucked up and drilled a hole in a spaceship. To deflect blame, we think an American astronaut did it in space."
    https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/09/the-russians-are-really-pushing-a-nasa-astronaut-sabotaged-the-iss-theory/
    The Russians are going a bit crazy. I can see cooperation in space ending soon, whatever that means for the ISS.

    It's a question I've thought of - are astronaut's lives being risked due to getting the 270-1 failure odds for commercial crew, when the true probability for Soyuz might be ~ 150-1 or so and not launching a mission up at 200-1 probability of failure or so.
    Soyuz has been solid and reliable, but how much of that is down to luck rather than judgement. If anything like this was found in a 2020 Starliner or Crew-Dragon they'd be grounded for yonks.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 487

    Pulpstar said:

    Who is Emma Gonzalez and what has she done ?

    An everyday person thrown into a sad situation, who is trying to use the horrible experience for good. And who is getting the expected grief for doing so.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emma_González
    Gonzalez would be a decent bet if there's some movement on gun control - and heaven forbid, but what we all know is likely to happen at some point. Although I wonder if they might give it to the Parkland kids in general as there are other high profile activists among them. Might be worth clarifying with Hills if they will pay out on Gonzalez if it goes to the Parkland kids.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,740

    HMG announce East West Expressway linking Oxford and Cambridge

    http://www.itv.com/news/meridian/2018-09-12/route-announced-for-oxford-cambridge-expressway/

    Much more important than linking Manchester and Sheffield.
    Yeah, the Yorkshire idiots just whinge even when money is being spent on them. Instead, spend the money on people who really appreciate it and dual the A428 between Caxton Gibbett and the Black Cat. ;)

    I drove to near Oxford on Sunday to do a walk. It's quite slow past St Neots to the Black Cat, great along the A421 past Bedford to Milton Keynes, and after that becomes a really slow and ponderous drive.

    The real reason for this new expressway is to encourage development.
  • Off-topic

    https://www.lutontoday.co.uk/news/deselected-labour-councillors-in-luton-ousted-as-part-of-organised-campaign-according-to-whatsapp-message-1-8563170

    The allegation here, with some evidence to back it up, is that there were organised deselections along ethnic lines (a particular Kashmiri tribe forcing out Labour councillors - judging from the name, also British Asians - from other backgrounds).

    Do we have any evidence for how widespread such practices are in general?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 5,619

    Mr. JS, saw that a little while ago. It's a perfectly reasonable theory. If you look at those who suffer learning difficulties, men are disproportionately over-represented. The same occurs at the time end of IQ. The notion that men might have a flatter bell curve with slighter higher ends, and women might have a higher peak in the middle and lower ends, is entirely feasible.

    Some people hate it because it suggests that more of the most intelligent people are men than women. Nobody, of course, has a problem with men being disproportionately violent, stupid, having learning difficulties etc.

    Point of order: people do complain about more men being diagnosed with learning difficulties because they worry it is because women aren't diagnosed, not that they don't have the condition. See also Autistic Spectrum Disorder and Heart Disease.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,740
    Pulpstar said:

    Off-topic:
    "Our engineers mucked up and drilled a hole in a spaceship. To deflect blame, we think an American astronaut did it in space."
    https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/09/the-russians-are-really-pushing-a-nasa-astronaut-sabotaged-the-iss-theory/
    The Russians are going a bit crazy. I can see cooperation in space ending soon, whatever that means for the ISS.

    It's a question I've thought of - are astronaut's lives being risked due to getting the 270-1 failure odds for commercial crew, when the true probability for Soyuz might be ~ 150-1 or so and not launching a mission up at 200-1 probability of failure or so.
    Soyuz has been solid and reliable, but how much of that is down to luck rather than judgement. If anything like this was found in a 2020 Starliner or Crew-Dragon they'd be grounded for yonks.
    There's a great article on Wayne Hale's blog about how NASA had to alter (i.e. bodge) their safety cases to allow US astronauts to fly on Soyuz.

    https://waynehale.wordpress.com/2011/01/07/certifying-soyuz/

    I'm minded to agree with you. People in NASA will have been having kittens over the original issue; they'll be furious over this attempt to shift the blame. Trust will be lost.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 31,291

    This seems quite a good summary of the state of play of the Brexit negotiations:

    https://www.cer.eu/in-the-press/theresa-mays-chequers-plan-may-yet-have-some-life-it

    One fib nailed:

    The Commission claims that since services provide much of the value of goods, if the British were free to undercut EU standards on services, they would distort the playing field for goods. But this argument is weak: most of the services that feed into the production of goods, such as marketing, design, engineering, law and accountancy, are not regulated by the EU, so there are no EU standards to undercut. In any case the EU tolerates Switzerland being in the market for goods but not services.
  • This seems quite a good summary of the state of play of the Brexit negotiations:

    https://www.cer.eu/in-the-press/theresa-mays-chequers-plan-may-yet-have-some-life-it

    One fib nailed:

    The Commission claims that since services provide much of the value of goods, if the British were free to undercut EU standards on services, they would distort the playing field for goods. But this argument is weak: most of the services that feed into the production of goods, such as marketing, design, engineering, law and accountancy, are not regulated by the EU, so there are no EU standards to undercut. In any case the EU tolerates Switzerland being in the market for goods but not services.
    Yes, he's quite right, it's a feeble argument by the EU. In any case, that objection if valid would apply to all free trade agreements.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,668
    This has the feel of something that is going to be awkward for the Labour leader:

  • RobDRobD Posts: 34,291
    edited September 12
    AndyJS said:
    Interesting read. Highlight for me was that they received no scientific criticisms of the paper at all.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 4,339

    This has the feel of something that is going to be awkward for the Labour leader:

    It certainly warrants investigation. It strikes me as being a lot worse than not declaring paid for trips to Sri Lanka.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 487

    This has the feel of something that is going to be awkward for the Labour leader:

    The really awkward one could be the undeclared wreath laying trip.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 4,339

    This has the feel of something that is going to be awkward for the Labour leader:

    It certainly warrants investigation. It strikes me as being a lot worse than not declaring paid for trips to Sri Lanka.
    As does the status of Andrew Murray.

    One employee without security clearance is not good. Two looks like a trend.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,515

    This has the feel of something that is going to be awkward for the Labour leader

    An alternative view:
  • This has the feel of something that is going to be awkward for the Labour leader:

    Especially given Corbyn's history on this type of thing
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronan_Bennett
  • RobDRobD Posts: 34,291

    This has the feel of something that is going to be awkward for the Labour leader

    An alternative view:
    And if they do have impeccable grounds?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 4,339

    This has the feel of something that is going to be awkward for the Labour leader

    An alternative view:
    It is not so much the clearance that matters, it is the abuse of passes to circumvent it that is probably where the trouble lies.


  • When did Palestine become a big thing for the British left? I've been doing some searches on Hansard and, as far as I can tell, Corbyn didn't speak about it at all in his first 20 years in the Commons. He had much to say about Ireland and the Kurds, maybe they were taking too much of his focus then? Or was that just before Seamus had got into it?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,978
    Mr. Me, that's possible, but accurate diagnosis of psychological conditions is tricky generally. For example, bulimia has methods of purging. Most of us will be aware of the vomiting and laxative routes, but a third is excessive exercise. Far more women than men are diagnosed with bulimia.

    But if a man ate a lot, exercised a lot, and was ripped, would we really consider him to be bulimic? Perhaps according to the technical definition. But if he isn't, is that definition valid for women?

    It's a knotty area generally. Self-reporting's ropey as hell too. I recall as a study into PMS. It had women who self-diagnosed that way keep diaries. The entries didn't tally with their self-diagnosis in a statistically significant number of cases. (Then there's overlapping conditions. Depression is very common, and more common amongst women. Insomnia is a very frequent symptom. But both are taken of symptoms of PMS. So is the women in that example suffering depression, or PMS? Is depression the condition or the result of the condition?).

    A further problem is the politically charged nature of gender differences.

    [For those wondering about all the gender stuff, I studied psychology at university, which had mostly female lecturers (including a charmer who once joked about only saving the girls if the theatre caught fire) and about 95% female students. Lots of gender discussion was had].

    Mr. Meeks, I'll believe it when I see it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,978
    That ramble (of mine) makes me wonder if it'd be possible to dig out some old textbooks and see what there is on male and female brains and attitude towards things like risk and other politically relevant thingummyjigs.

    Or, for that matter, ingroups and outgroups and the Cult.

    Perversely, the very horribleness of Corbyn's Labour may be keeping some people in. Leaving aside aside Corbynites, some may want to change things (although I think that's a forlorn hope), and some may subconsciously feel that they've endured so much already that they can't bear to leave now because it means putting up with all the previous bullshit was for nothing.
  • RobD said:

    AndyJS said:
    Interesting read. Highlight for me was that they received no scientific criticisms of the paper at all.
    Otoh it talks about gingering up the paper to be deliberately controversial, mentioning Summers and so on, which you'd not expect in a scientific paper. As someone wiser than me said, the trouble with setting out to offend people is that you can be *too* successful, and then you need to be a good fighter or a fast runner.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,978
    Anyway, having killed the conversation (apparently psychology is chat-repellent batspray) I'll be off.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 17,946
    edited September 12
    Sky - Roaming charges back if no deal

    Mind you seeing Faisal Islam traduced by the CAA over grounding flights was very satisfying. He needs to apologise for his nonsense but I am not holding my breath
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,183
    Anarchist protestors target Jacob Rees Mogg, his children and nanny outside his London home

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45501004
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,043

    Sky - Roaming charges back if no deal

    all SkyNews do these days is ramp gloom. Thyere hardly an independent force in reporting.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 15,074

    When did Palestine become a big thing for the British left? I've been doing some searches on Hansard and, as far as I can tell, Corbyn didn't speak about it at all in his first 20 years in the Commons. He had much to say about Ireland and the Kurds, maybe they were taking too much of his focus then? Or was that just before Seamus had got into it?

    Ireland sorted itself out, ish, so he scouted around for other capitalist imperialist oppressors who also happened to run the world and bingo.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 4,339
    HYUFD said:

    Anarchist protestors target Jacob Rees Mogg, his children and nanny outside his London home

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45501004

    It is hardly a surprise that many are seeking to justify this behaviour.

    Also not a surprise that the man is frequently seen alongside McDonnell and Burgon.

    McDonnell is a fan of aggression towards politicians whom he opposes...
  • Sky - Roaming charges back if no deal

    all SkyNews do these days is ramp gloom. Thyere hardly an independent force in reporting.
    They are off the scale of nonsense most of the time. Full of remainers with an agenda including Islam and Boulton
  • kingbongokingbongo Posts: 165

    This seems quite a good summary of the state of play of the Brexit negotiations:

    https://www.cer.eu/in-the-press/theresa-mays-chequers-plan-may-yet-have-some-life-it

    One fib nailed:

    The Commission claims that since services provide much of the value of goods, if the British were free to undercut EU standards on services, they would distort the playing field for goods. But this argument is weak: most of the services that feed into the production of goods, such as marketing, design, engineering, law and accountancy, are not regulated by the EU, so there are no EU standards to undercut. In any case the EU tolerates Switzerland being in the market for goods but not services.
    Yes, he's quite right, it's a feeble argument by the EU. In any case, that objection if valid would apply to all free trade agreements.
    I asked about this a few threads ago - was told it’s to do with customs checks or something equally unconvincing by williamglen - would still like to know what the EU commission argument is that applies to UK goods but not, say, Japan’s under the economic partnership especially as most goods FTAs are moving to agreeing application of international standards (eg Japan now accepting international standards for EU cars)
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 4,339

    Sky - Roaming charges back if no deal

    Mind you seeing Faisal Islam traduced by the CAA over grounding flights was very satisfying. He needs to apologise for his nonsense but I am not holding my breath

    I suspect we could cope with that. We did for many years with only minor grumbling
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,183

    HYUFD said:

    Anarchist protestors target Jacob Rees Mogg, his children and nanny outside his London home

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45501004

    It is hardly a surprise that many are seeking to justify this behaviour.

    Also not a surprise that the man is frequently seen alongside McDonnell and Burgon.

    McDonnell is a fan of aggression towards politicians whom he opposes...
    Agreed, aiming to drown out opponents
  • Sky - Roaming charges back if no deal

    Mind you seeing Faisal Islam traduced by the CAA over grounding flights was very satisfying. He needs to apologise for his nonsense but I am not holding my breath

    I suspect we could cope with that. We did for many years with only minor grumbling
    And now Sky have had to say that a couple of UK providers have said they will not re-instate roaming charges. You could not make it up
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 4,339

    Sky - Roaming charges back if no deal

    Mind you seeing Faisal Islam traduced by the CAA over grounding flights was very satisfying. He needs to apologise for his nonsense but I am not holding my breath

    I suspect we could cope with that. We did for many years with only minor grumbling
    And now Sky have had to say that a couple of UK providers have said they will not re-instate roaming charges. You could not make it up
    well Sky clearly did!
  • HYUFD said:
    Macron below Hollande - that is so amusing
  • Sky - Roaming charges back if no deal

    Mind you seeing Faisal Islam traduced by the CAA over grounding flights was very satisfying. He needs to apologise for his nonsense but I am not holding my breath

    I suspect we could cope with that. We did for many years with only minor grumbling
    And now Sky have had to say that a couple of UK providers have said they will not re-instate roaming charges. You could not make it up
    well Sky clearly did!
    Experts at it
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 4,339

    HYUFD said:
    Macron below Hollande - that is so amusing
    The French do like a good bit of turmoil
  • Seems like a decent bet to me. It probably won't come in but 25/1 is too big.

    Another decent bet - which I do expect to come in - is the Democrats to take the House in November. Nate Silver now has this as an 82% probability which would make the 1.47 available on Betfair a bit of a gift.

    The latest batch of polls, with the honorable exception of YouGov, give the Dems double digit leads. Nate's polling average now puts them 8.6 points ahead. That gives them the House easily. Any more puts the Senate within reach, but personally I doubt that is going to happen.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 1,839
    How about 'The Trillionaires', represented by Jeff Bezos and Tim Cook.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,183

    HYUFD said:
    Macron below Hollande - that is so amusing
    Well below Chirac and Sarkozy too
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 5,619

    Mr. Me, that's possible, but accurate diagnosis of psychological conditions is tricky generally.

    It's not much of a stretch to say that all scientific problems are measurement problems.

    That's not to say that all measurements, or science, is useless, but that grand sweeping hypotheses that are tempting to use to explain a large number of disparate phenomena could end up obscuring more than they explain. It would be very easy to look at every gender difference and say, "that's an example of increased male variability." Most of the time it probably isn't.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,659

    Sky - Roaming charges back if no deal

    Mind you seeing Faisal Islam traduced by the CAA over grounding flights was very satisfying. He needs to apologise for his nonsense but I am not holding my breath

    I suspect we could cope with that. We did for many years with only minor grumbling
    And now Sky have had to say that a couple of UK providers have said they will not re-instate roaming charges. You could not make it up
    Well that's not a surprise, three of the four major providers have contracts that go beyond the minimum requirements and provide free roaming in non-EU countries, unless Mr Islam is saying the EU made them do that as well?
  • edbedb Posts: 29
    Let's not pretend the mobile providers did this out of the goodness of their hearts. It was because of the EU rule and they have tried to make a virtue out of the necessity. However, it should be fairly easy to shame them into keeping the policy, in the 21st century.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,111

    Mr. Me, that's possible, but accurate diagnosis of psychological conditions is tricky generally.

    It's not much of a stretch to say that all scientific problems are measurement problems.

    That's not to say that all measurements, or science, is useless, but that grand sweeping hypotheses that are tempting to use to explain a large number of disparate phenomena could end up obscuring more than they explain. It would be very easy to look at every gender difference and say, "that's an example of increased male variability." Most of the time it probably isn't.
    IQ is a pretty rubbish measure which varies with education, social class and throughout life. It is not the constant that some pretend.

    In terms of psychology, something like bulemia is only a pathological condition if it is causes physical, mental, or social suffering.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,659
    edb said:

    Let's not pretend the mobile providers did this out of the goodness of their hearts. It was because of the EU rule and they have tried to make a virtue out of the necessity. However, it should be fairly easy to shame them into keeping the policy, in the 21st century.

    Three introduced free overseas roaming ages before the EU, it's an area of competition for the major networks. It's the MVNOs that will be the most likely to cut it but they serve customers looking for cheap deals so it will be a choice after that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,111

    HYUFD said:
    Macron below Hollande - that is so amusing
    He is pretty much at his first round support, the second round votes are by definition second choices.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,640
    FPT
    malcolmg said:
    » show previous quotes
    The clown just cannot help himself, watches one episode of Hogan's Heroes and becomes a Nazi expert

    You are probably the expert there. I don't support a party that has the word Nationalist in it. Is Scottish Nationalism a racist endeavour ? Best ask Jezza

    Look at the state of this moron , he does not even know the name of the political party and just makes it up. Even thicker than imagined, but as he will be back under his rock by now I doubt he will get it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,640
    HYUFD said:

    Anarchist protestors target Jacob Rees Mogg, his children and nanny outside his London home

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45501004

    Desperate stuff harassing children, what kind of lowlifes are they.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,183
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anarchist protestors target Jacob Rees Mogg, his children and nanny outside his London home

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45501004

    Desperate stuff harassing children, what kind of lowlifes are they.
    Could not agree more MalcG
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 2,662

    Mr. Me, that's possible, but accurate diagnosis of psychological conditions is tricky generally.

    It's not much of a stretch to say that all scientific problems are measurement problems.

    That's not to say that all measurements, or science, is useless, but that grand sweeping hypotheses that are tempting to use to explain a large number of disparate phenomena could end up obscuring more than they explain. It would be very easy to look at every gender difference and say, "that's an example of increased male variability." Most of the time it probably isn't.
    I'd disagree. Most scientific problems are about seeking order in chaos. Most of the progress that happens is when something becomes measurable. When it does there's a really good framework of statistics that becomes applicable. Applying that framework well isn't easy, but finishes up as very step-by-step and explicable. Most scientists' colleagues are very, very picky.

  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 4,339
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anarchist protestors target Jacob Rees Mogg, his children and nanny outside his London home

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45501004

    Desperate stuff harassing children, what kind of lowlifes are they.
    Friends of Burgon, McDonnell and Piers Corbyn...

    says it all really
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,705
    Omnium said:

    Mr. Me, that's possible, but accurate diagnosis of psychological conditions is tricky generally.

    It's not much of a stretch to say that all scientific problems are measurement problems.

    That's not to say that all measurements, or science, is useless, but that grand sweeping hypotheses that are tempting to use to explain a large number of disparate phenomena could end up obscuring more than they explain. It would be very easy to look at every gender difference and say, "that's an example of increased male variability." Most of the time it probably isn't.
    I'd disagree. Most scientific problems are about seeking order in chaos. Most of the progress that happens is when something becomes measurable. When it does there's a really good framework of statistics that becomes applicable. Applying that framework well isn't easy, but finishes up as very step-by-step and explicable. Most scientists' colleagues are very, very picky.

    The most pressing problem in science is 'Where does my next research grant come from?'
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,478
    HYUFD said:

    Anarchist protestors target Jacob Rees Mogg, his children and nanny outside his London home

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45501004

    Absolutely disgraceful.
  • TomsToms Posts: 1,613
    I nominate the Mr. Smith who went to Washington. We certainly need such a one.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr._Smith_Goes_to_Washington
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,478
    Apologies if already posted:
    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    UK, ICM Research poll:
    CON-ECR: 42% (+2)
    LAB-S&D: 39% (-1)
    LDEM-ALDE: 8%
    UKIP-EFDD: 4% (-2)
    GREENS-G/EFA: 3% (+1)
    Field worKk 7/09/18 – 9/09/18
    Sample size: 2,051"
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 27,791
    edited September 12

    Most important news story of the day for the vast majority of PBers:

    Cornwall Council adds apostrophe to Land's End

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-45499594

    Operation @SeanT progressing nicely - Newquay branch captured - on film! - today, adding to Falmouth and Gunnislake branches yesterday, just Penzance, St Ives and Looe left. Slumming it in Plymouth till Friday afternoon :)
  • TomsToms Posts: 1,613
    Omnium said:

    Mr. Me, that's possible, but accurate diagnosis of psychological conditions is tricky generally.

    It's not much of a stretch to say that all scientific problems are measurement problems.

    That's not to say that all measurements, or science, is useless, but that grand sweeping hypotheses that are tempting to use to explain a large number of disparate phenomena could end up obscuring more than they explain. It would be very easy to look at every gender difference and say, "that's an example of increased male variability." Most of the time it probably isn't.
    I'd disagree. Most scientific problems are about seeking order in chaos. Most of the progress that happens is when something becomes measurable. When it does there's a really good framework of statistics that becomes applicable. Applying that framework well isn't easy, but finishes up as very step-by-step and explicable. Most scientists' colleagues are very, very picky.

    Strangely, we also need to study chaos. For instance the motion of planets I believe is chaotic. So there is no guarantee that the solar system won't conspire to spit out mother Earth to distant places.
This discussion has been closed.