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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Who are the centrists and wh

SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited September 13 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Who are the centrists and who do they think they are?

On the latest episode of the PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss some recent polling by Opinium that looks at where Brits place themselves of the left-right political scale, who classes themselves as ‘centrist’ and what they think it means.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,109
    edited September 13
    1st like Mme. Thible
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,990
    2nd, like Remain and Labour.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,109
    Very quiet here this evening....
  • 3rd like the LibDems
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 1,609
    Who are the centrists?

    Authoritarians consumed by the idea of power above all else, determined to stamp out alternative patterns of thought.

    Who do they think they are?

    Enlightened despots holding back the ignorant masses from reliving the 1930s.

    Right, time to listen to the podcast.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,570

    Who are the centrists?

    Authoritarians consumed by the idea of power above all else, determined to stamp out alternative patterns of thought.

    You’re referring to Corbyn’s triangulation on Brexit?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,492
    edited September 13
    O/T

    Interesting Spanish opinion poll:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    1h1 hour ago
    Spain, electoPanel poll:
    PSOE-S&D: 25%
    PP-EPP: 25% (+2)
    Cs-ALDE: 20% (-1)
    UP-LEFT: 18% (-1)
    ERC-G/EFA: 3%
    VOX-ECR: 2%
    PDeCAT-ALDE: 2%
    PACMA-LEFT: 1% (-1)
    PNV-ALDE: 1%
    BILDU-LEFT: 1%
    CC-*: 0%
    BNG-G/EFA: 0%
    Field work: 7/09/18 – 9/09/18"
  • FPT

    It is remarkable that after today's no deal cabinet meeting attended by Carney with all kinds of negative economic predictions not one of the cabinet brexiteers have demured. Furthermore Dominc Raab is really beginning to impress after a difficult start and is coming over far better than David Davis ever did.

    If we had had Raab and Hunt from the start, instead of the lazy Davis and riduculous Boris, maybe a deal would have been a lot easier

    The Brexiteers want Brexit. To hell with the consequences.
    Yes. That's why they're Brexiteers.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,109

    FPT

    It is remarkable that after today's no deal cabinet meeting attended by Carney with all kinds of negative economic predictions not one of the cabinet brexiteers have demured. Furthermore Dominc Raab is really beginning to impress after a difficult start and is coming over far better than David Davis ever did.

    If we had had Raab and Hunt from the start, instead of the lazy Davis and riduculous Boris, maybe a deal would have been a lot easier

    The Brexiteers want Brexit. To hell with the consequences.
    Yes. That's why they're Brexiteers.
    What a pity for them then, that what they look likely to get is a lingering-death type of EU membership where we do as we are told and have no influence.
  • Early night for me

    Hope everyone has a restful night

    Good night folks
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 5,639
    FPT
    Pulpstar said:

    lol One of the Mangkhut models has the pressure heading down to 777 mbar. It's almost certainly wrong, but interesting nevertheless...

    That's a numerical instability in the model - known in the trade as a grid-point storm. When the surface density goes negative the model normally crashes with a floating-point exception somewhere.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 4,339
    I think we can put Mark Serwotka down as a 'no' for any new Centrist movement after his speech.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,209
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    Interesting Spanish opinion poll:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    1h1 hour ago
    Spain, electoPanel poll:
    PSOE-S&D: 25%
    PP-EPP: 25% (+2)
    Cs-ALDE: 20% (-1)
    UP-LEFT: 18% (-1)
    ERC-G/EFA: 3%
    VOX-ECR: 2%
    PDeCAT-ALDE: 2%
    PACMA-LEFT: 1% (-1)
    PNV-ALDE: 1%
    BILDU-LEFT: 1%
    CC-*: 0%
    BNG-G/EFA: 0%
    Field work: 7/09/18 – 9/09/18"

    PP back tied for the lead with the governing PSOE just months after losing power
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,492
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    Interesting Spanish opinion poll:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    1h1 hour ago
    Spain, electoPanel poll:
    PSOE-S&D: 25%
    PP-EPP: 25% (+2)
    Cs-ALDE: 20% (-1)
    UP-LEFT: 18% (-1)
    ERC-G/EFA: 3%
    VOX-ECR: 2%
    PDeCAT-ALDE: 2%
    PACMA-LEFT: 1% (-1)
    PNV-ALDE: 1%
    BILDU-LEFT: 1%
    CC-*: 0%
    BNG-G/EFA: 0%
    Field work: 7/09/18 – 9/09/18"

    PP back tied for the lead with the governing PSOE just months after losing power
    That's right, although the fragmentation we're seeing everywhere else in Europe is almost as interesting. At least 75% opposing each party.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,212

    Very quiet here this evening....

    I've got to be up early, so little time for discussion. The turnip stockpile won't build itself. It's not so much that I'm bored with Brexit, I'm just bored with it on PB; I could probably write a reasonable pastiche of every regular on here when it comes to leaving the God Kingdom of Europe.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,209
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    Interesting Spanish opinion poll:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    1h1 hour ago
    Spain, electoPanel poll:
    PSOE-S&D: 25%
    PP-EPP: 25% (+2)
    Cs-ALDE: 20% (-1)
    UP-LEFT: 18% (-1)
    ERC-G/EFA: 3%
    VOX-ECR: 2%
    PDeCAT-ALDE: 2%
    PACMA-LEFT: 1% (-1)
    PNV-ALDE: 1%
    BILDU-LEFT: 1%
    CC-*: 0%
    BNG-G/EFA: 0%
    Field work: 7/09/18 – 9/09/18"

    PP back tied for the lead with the governing PSOE just months after losing power
    That's right, although the fragmentation we're seeing everywhere else in Europe is almost as interesting. At least 75% opposing each party.
    Yes the Tories are doing better than most centre right parties in Europe and Labour much better than most European centre left parties
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,129
    John_M said:

    Very quiet here this evening....

    I've got to be up early, so little time for discussion. The turnip stockpile won't build itself. It's not so much that I'm bored with Brexit, I'm just bored with it on PB; I could probably write a reasonable pastiche of every regular on here when it comes to leaving the God Kingdom of Europe.
    Tonight we are being bored by Centrism. Its what happens when you hold a party and no one comes.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,937
    Foxy said:

    John_M said:

    Very quiet here this evening....

    I've got to be up early, so little time for discussion. The turnip stockpile won't build itself. It's not so much that I'm bored with Brexit, I'm just bored with it on PB; I could probably write a reasonable pastiche of every regular on here when it comes to leaving the God Kingdom of Europe.
    Tonight we are being bored by Centrism. Its what happens when you hold a party and no one comes.

    Fie, fie. I can be far more boring that that... :)
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    It is remarkable that after today's no deal cabinet meeting attended by Carney with all kinds of negative economic predictions not one of the cabinet brexiteers have demured. Furthermore Dominc Raab is really beginning to impress after a difficult start and is coming over far better than David Davis ever did.

    If we had had Raab and Hunt from the start, instead of the lazy Davis and riduculous Boris, maybe a deal would have been a lot easier

    Big_G is on the magic mushrooms at the moment. It was widely reported that Carney’s latest scare campaign on behalf of his City mates was attacked by both leavers and remainers in Cabinet and as usual he was unable to explain what modelling inputs he used and how he came up with his ‘predictions’. Apart from that, the latest technical notes on no deal are totally underwhelming with the biggest headline being the need to spend a fiver on an international driving licence. Oh, and we might not get warned about the one in a trillion chance of an asteroid (except of course the Americans will tell us instead).

    All the evidence is that May’s deal is dead. Raab is on record saying fudge won’t do the trick. No progress has been made at all on Brexit discussions for six months. How he gets from this to proclaiming that his totally undefined version of soft Brexit is just around the corner is a mystery.

    All the indications are pointing to no deal.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,129

    It is remarkable that after today's no deal cabinet meeting attended by Carney with all kinds of negative economic predictions not one of the cabinet brexiteers have demured. Furthermore Dominc Raab is really beginning to impress after a difficult start and is coming over far better than David Davis ever did.

    If we had had Raab and Hunt from the start, instead of the lazy Davis and riduculous Boris, maybe a deal would have been a lot easier

    Big_G is on the magic mushrooms at the moment. It was widely reported that Carney’s latest scare campaign on behalf of his City mates was attacked by both leavers and remainers in Cabinet and as usual he was unable to explain what modelling inputs he used and how he came up with his ‘predictions’. Apart from that, the latest technical notes on no deal are totally underwhelming with the biggest headline being the need to spend a fiver on an international driving licence. Oh, and we might not get warned about the one in a trillion chance of an asteroid (except of course the Americans will tell us instead).

    All the evidence is that May’s deal is dead. Raab is on record saying fudge won’t do the trick. No progress has been made at all on Brexit discussions for six months. How he gets from this to proclaiming that his totally undefined version of soft Brexit is just around the corner is a mystery.

    All the indications are pointing to no deal.
    No deal hasn't got the numbers and they know it. Neither does the #peoplesvote.

    Blind Brexit here we come, nailed on.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,209
    edited September 13

    It is remarkable that after today's no deal cabinet meeting attended by Carney with all kinds of negative economic predictions not one of the cabinet brexiteers have demured. Furthermore Dominc Raab is really beginning to impress after a difficult start and is coming over far better than David Davis ever did.

    If we had had Raab and Hunt from the start, instead of the lazy Davis and riduculous Boris, maybe a deal would have been a lot easier

    Big_G is on the magic mushrooms at the moment. It was widely reported that Carney’s latest scare campaign on behalf of his City mates was attacked by both leavers and remainers in Cabinet and as usual he was unable to explain what modelling inputs he used and how he came up with his ‘predictions’. Apart from that, the latest technical notes on no deal are totally underwhelming with the biggest headline being the need to spend a fiver on an international driving licence. Oh, and we might not get warned about the one in a trillion chance of an asteroid (except of course the Americans will tell us instead).

    All the evidence is that May’s deal is dead. Raab is on record saying fudge won’t do the trick. No progress has been made at all on Brexit discussions for six months. How he gets from this to proclaiming that his totally undefined version of soft Brexit is just around the corner is a mystery.

    All the indications are pointing to no deal.
    They aren't, all the indications are for a BINO stay in the single market and customs union in all but name withdrawal agreement and transition period deal with a token promise to do our own free trade deals and change on free movement from work permits and study places needed after 3 months to on arrival.


    Parliament will not vote for No Deal
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,107
    HYUFD said:




    Parliament will not vote for No Deal

    Parliament doesn't have to vote for "No Deal" ? "No Deal" became the default option the moment they voted to trigger A50 - So in many ways Parliament already voted for "No Deal" - Though clueless idiots that most of them are they didn't even realize it! :D
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    HYUFD said:

    It is remarkable that after today's no deal cabinet meeting attended by Carney with all kinds of negative economic predictions not one of the cabinet brexiteers have demured. Furthermore Dominc Raab is really beginning to impress after a difficult start and is coming over far better than David Davis ever did.

    If we had had Raab and Hunt from the start, instead of the lazy Davis and riduculous Boris, maybe a deal would have been a lot easier

    Big_G is on the magic mushrooms at the moment. It was widely reported that Carney’s latest scare campaign on behalf of his City mates was attacked by both leavers and remainers in Cabinet and as usual he was unable to explain what modelling inputs he used and how he came up with his ‘predictions’. Apart from that, the latest technical notes on no deal are totally underwhelming with the biggest headline being the need to spend a fiver on an international driving licence. Oh, and we might not get warned about the one in a trillion chance of an asteroid (except of course the Americans will tell us instead).

    All the evidence is that May’s deal is dead. Raab is on record saying fudge won’t do the trick. No progress has been made at all on Brexit discussions for six months. How he gets from this to proclaiming that his totally undefined version of soft Brexit is just around the corner is a mystery.

    All the indications are pointing to no deal.
    They aren't, all the indications are for a BINO stay in the single market and customs union in all but name withdrawal agreement and transition period deal with a token promise to do our own free trade deals and change on free movement from work permits and study places needed after 3 months to on arrival.


    Parliament will not vote for No Deal
    Sigh. If you are in the customs union you cannot do your own trade deals - it is a contradiction in terms. No fudge possible, just not reality. That is why ETFA are not in a CU with the EU. No trade policy = no Brexit. And the resignation of the Cabinet Leavers.

    Parliament does not have to vote for no deal. If it fails to approve another deal, then no deal Brexit is automatic.

    EEA plus CU will start an immediate civil war in the Tory party that will end up in it being out of power for decades. There is no other deal on offer. That is why May needs to reject the NI backstop and offer a choice between CETA and nothing.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,107
    edited September 13
    Saw Rory The Tory on Question Time.

    What's the big deal about him with people on here? He's a complete waste of space?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,209
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:




    Parliament will not vote for No Deal

    Parliament doesn't have to vote for "No Deal" ? "No Deal" became the default option the moment they voted to trigger A50 - So in many ways Parliament already voted for "No Deal" - Though clueless idiots that most of them are they didn't even realize it! :D
    Parliament has to vote on what May proposes, which will largely be BINO, it will not vote for WTO terms over that
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,209
    edited September 13

    HYUFD said:

    It is remarkable that after today's no deal cabinet meeting attended by Carney with all kinds of negative economic predictions not one of the cabinet brexiteers have demured. Furthermore Dominc Raab is really beginning to impress after a difficult start and is coming over far better than David Davis ever did.

    If we had had Raab and Hunt from the start, instead of the lazy Davis and riduculous Boris, maybe a deal would have been a lot easier

    Big_G is on the magic mushrooms at the moment. It was widely reported that Carney’s latest scare campaign on behalf of his City mates was attacked by both leavers and remainers in Cabinet and as usual he was unable to explain what modelling inputs he used and how he came up with his ‘predictions’. Apart from that, the latest technical notes on no deal are totally underwhelming with the biggest headline being the need to spend a fiver on an international driving licence. Oh, and we might not get warned about the one in a trillion chance of an asteroid (except of course the Americans will tell us instead).

    All the evidence is that May’s deal is dead. Raab is on record saying fudge won’t do the trick. No progress has been made at all on Brexit discussions for six months. How he gets from this to proclaiming that his totally undefined version of soft Brexit is just around the corner is a mystery.

    All the indications are pointing to no deal.
    They aren't, all the indte for No Deal
    Sigh. If you are in the customs union you cannot do your own trade deals - it is a contradiction in terms. No fudge possible, just not reality. That is why ETFA are not in a CU with the EU. No trade policy = no Brexit. And the resignation of the Cabinet Leavers.

    Parliament does not have to vote for no deal. If it fails to approve another deal, then no deal Brexit is automatic.

    EEA plus CU will start an immediate civil war in the Tory party that will end up in it being out of power for decades. There is no other deal on offer. That is why May needs to reject the NI backstop and offer a choice between CETA and nothing.
    Will it? The Tories lead the latest YouGov and Survation despite May's moves towards compromise with the EU for a Deal and that Deal will be largely EEA plus CU, the only deal that can now get past the EU (unlike CETA which they insist must have a border in the Irish Sea) and get enough Tories and the DUP (as it avoids a border in the Irish Sea) and rebel Remainer Labour MPs to vote for it (plus maybe the LDs, SNP and the Green) while Corbyn and the rest of Labour and the ERG vote against.
  • John_M said:

    Very quiet here this evening....

    I've got to be up early, so little time for discussion. The turnip stockpile won't build itself. It's not so much that I'm bored with Brexit, I'm just bored with it on PB; I could probably write a reasonable pastiche of every regular on here when it comes to leaving the God Kingdom of Europe.
    Demmed decent of you to pop in to remind us of our tediousness.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 20,153
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:




    Parliament will not vote for No Deal

    Parliament doesn't have to vote for "No Deal" ? "No Deal" became the default option the moment they voted to trigger A50 - So in many ways Parliament already voted for "No Deal" - Though clueless idiots that most of them are they didn't even realize it! :D
    Indeed.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,129
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:




    Parliament will not vote for No Deal

    Parliament doesn't have to vote for "No Deal" ? "No Deal" became the default option the moment they voted to trigger A50 - So in many ways Parliament already voted for "No Deal" - Though clueless idiots that most of them are they didn't even realize it! :D
    Which is why crappy vassal state Brexit will pass instead.

    The No Dealers do not have the numbers to stop the crap dealers, and neither do the #peoplesvote. Blind Brexit nailed on.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,570

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:




    Parliament will not vote for No Deal

    Parliament doesn't have to vote for "No Deal" ? "No Deal" became the default option the moment they voted to trigger A50 - So in many ways Parliament already voted for "No Deal" - Though clueless idiots that most of them are they didn't even realize it! :D
    Indeed.
    It's a bit like saying that repossession is the default option from the moment you take out a mortgage. It's technically true, but isn't much of a guide to how things happen in practice.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 2,324
    GIN1138 said:

    Saw Rory The Tory on Question Time.

    What's the big deal about him with people on here? He's a complete waste of space?

    Tories always get a bit damp around the gusset for an ex military type. Especially those Toy Soldier Tories that have never served.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,570
    This shows how dangerous gas lines can be.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    HYUFD said:





    Sigh. If you are in the customs union you cannot do your own trade deals - it is a contradiction in terms. No fudge possible, just not reality. That is why ETFA are not in a CU with the EU. No trade policy = no Brexit. And the resignation of the Cabinet Leavers.

    Parliament does not have to vote for no deal. If it fails to approve another deal, then no deal Brexit is automatic.

    EEA plus CU will start an immediate civil war in the Tory party that will end up in it being out of power for decades. There is no other deal on offer. That is why May needs to reject the NI backstop and offer a choice between CETA and nothing.

    Will it? The Tories lead the latest YouGov and Survation despite May's moves towards compromise with the EU for a Deal and that Deal will be largely EEA plus CU, the only deal that can now get past the EU (unlike CETA which they insist must have a border in the Irish Sea) and get enough Tories and the DUP (as it avoids a border in the Irish Sea) and rebel Remainer Labour MPs to vote for it (plus maybe the LDs, SNP and the Green) while Corbyn and the rest of Labour and the ERG vote against.
    Chequers, for all its faults, is nowhere near EEA plus CU. If you don’t see that you don’t understand Brexit.

    Chequers was as far as May could ever go and not provoke Tory civil war. She promised the Leavers that was it. You are kidding yourself if you think May or the Tories could survive doing something which is the exact opposite of their policy and manifesto.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,492

    This shows how dangerous gas lines can be.

    Indeed, but why now?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,209

    HYUFD said:





    Sigh. If you are in the customs union you cannot do your own trade deals - it is a contradiction in terms. No fudge possible, just not reality. That is why ETFA are not in a CU with the EU. No trade policy = no Brexit. And the resignation of the Cabinet Leavers.

    Parliament does not have to vote for no deal. If it fails to approve another deal, then no deal Brexit is automatic.

    EEA plus CU will start an immediate civil war in the Tory party that will end up in it being out of power for decades. There is no other deal on offer. That is why May needs to reject the NI backstop and offer a choice between CETA and nothing.

    Will it? The Tories lead the latest YouGov and Survation despite May's moves towards compromise with the EU for a Deal and that Deal will be largely EEA plus CU, the only deal that can now get past the EU (unlike CETA which they insist must have a border in the Irish Sea) and get enough Tories and the DUP (as it avoids a border in the Irish Sea) and rebel Remainer Labour MPs to vote for it (plus maybe the LDs, SNP and the Green) while Corbyn and the rest of Labour and the ERG vote against.
    Chequers, for all its faults, is nowhere near EEA plus CU. If you don’t see that you don’t understand Brexit.

    Chequers was as far as May could ever go and not provoke Tory civil war. She promised the Leavers that was it. You are kidding yourself if you think May or the Tories could survive doing something which is the exact opposite of their policy and manifesto.
    Chequers was largely BINO on goods regulations plus work permits on arrival and a promise of doing our own trade deals.

    May would be proposing Chequers plus alignment on services regulation
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:





    Sigh. If you are in the customs union you cannot do your own trade deals - it is a contradiction in terms. No fudge possible, just not reality. That is why ETFA are not in a CU with the EU. No trade policy = no Brexit. And the resignation of the Cabinet Leavers.

    Parliament does not have to vote for no deal. If it fails to approve another deal, then no deal Brexit is automatic.

    EEA plus CU will start an immediate civil war in the Tory party that will end up in it being out of power for decades. There is no other deal on offer. That is why May needs to reject the NI backstop and offer a choice between CETA and nothing.

    Will it? The Tories lead the latest YouGov and Survation despite May's moves towards compromise with the EU for a Deal and that Deal will be largely EEA plus CU, the only deal that can now get past the EU (unlike CETA which they insist must have a border in the Irish Sea) and get enough Tories and the DUP (as it avoids a border in the Irish Sea) and rebel Remainer Labour MPs to vote for it (plus maybe the LDs, SNP and the Green) while Corbyn and the rest of Labour and the ERG vote against.
    Chequers, for all its faults, is nowhere near EEA plus CU. If you don’t see that you don’t understand Brexit.

    Chequers was as far as May could ever go and not provoke Tory civil war. She promised the Leavers that was it. You are kidding yourself if you think May or the Tories could survive doing something which is the exact opposite of their policy and manifesto.
    Chequers was largely BINO on goods regulations plus work permits on arrival and a promise of doing our own trade deals.

    May would be proposing Chequers plus alignment on services regulation
    No, no, no. They key point of Chequers was the customs partnership, which allowed (in theory) the UK to do trade deals. That has been rejected by the EU.

    If she concedes on the customs partnership (eg to the customs union) and services regulation, she is basically at EEA + CU. At that point there is no difference. There is NO possibility of being in a/the customs union and doing your own trade deals.

    What you are suggesting will start the civil war. The cabinet leavers are all on record as saying that they won't accept the kind of sell out that you are proposing.

    This is the problem - people talk about 'soft Brexit' being 'fudged' but they never actually explain how that can actually happen without ending up back at the EEA/CU which May and the manifesto specifically ruled out.
  • It is remarkable that after today's no deal cabinet meeting attended by Carney with all kinds of negative economic predictions not one of the cabinet brexiteers have demured. Furthermore Dominc Raab is really beginning to impress after a difficult start and is coming over far better than David Davis ever did.

    If we had had Raab and Hunt from the start, instead of the lazy Davis and riduculous Boris, maybe a deal would have been a lot easier

    Big_G is on the magic mushrooms at the moment. It was widely reported that Carney’s latest scare campaign on behalf of his City mates was attacked by both leavers and remainers in Cabinet and as usual he was unable to explain what modelling inputs he used and how he came up with his ‘predictions’. Apart from that, the latest technical notes on no deal are totally underwhelming with the biggest headline being the need to spend a fiver on an international driving licence. Oh, and we might not get warned about the one in a trillion chance of an asteroid (except of course the Americans will tell us instead).

    All the evidence is that May’s deal is dead. Raab is on record saying fudge won’t do the trick. No progress has been made at all on Brexit discussions for six months. How he gets from this to proclaiming that his totally undefined version of soft Brexit is just around the corner is a mystery.

    All the indications are pointing to no deal.
    I have just read the front of the FT. Theresa May’s “Chequers” has been given a huge boost by intervention from the economic wunderkind Mark Carney. By the account written here, Carney and Hammond took over cabinet meeting, everyone listened in respectful and fearful silence whilst being educated on the horrors what will come to pass in no deal brexit scenario, including 35% off house prices.

    The house price crash will be driven by rising unemployment, depressed economic growth, higher inflation and higher interest rates. If Chequers goes ahead, however, the economy is going to out perform current forecasts. So Every brexiteer must now sit down and be humble, it’s May’s way or its or it’s curds and whey.

    On the other hand, this may be such amateur hour politics, even the most ardent remaniac feels thoroughly embarrassed about it. In this quite stunning difference, first time round project fear at least had a tenor of respectability about it compared to MKII, which merely deserves to flee the stage under a hail of plastic pint glasses and piss.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 488
    On topic, I think the discussion around centrism always gets it wrong as it's less a political philosophy, more of an approach to your existing one. It's rather like being a left-handed/arm or right-handed/arm batsman or bowler. A centrist Labour MP may often use similar rhetoric but wants something quite different to a Tory one - for example Cameron and Osborne are regarded as 'centrist' Tories, but starved the state with a primary goal of getting public expenditure down as a % of GDP in a way Labour never would have done, similarly while Blair and Brown might never appear in front of a communist flag like Jezza, their changes to tax credits and boosts for spending in health and education wouldn't have been contemplated by their 'moderate' Tory counterparts like Heseltine and Clarke.

    It's why a new centrist party is I think only possible as a direct carve out from Labour, that then, if the Conservatives keep going mad, attracts Tory MPs and voters as the only plausible option.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,650
    GIN1138 said:

    Saw Rory The Tory on Question Time.

    What's the big deal about him with people on here? He's a complete waste of space?

    Doubt he is even that good GIN, typical weak empty barrel that the southern Tories on here love.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,482
    edited September 14
    Dura_Ace said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Saw Rory The Tory on Question Time.

    What's the big deal about him with people on here? He's a complete waste of space?

    Tories always get a bit damp around the gusset for an ex military type. Especially those Toy Soldier Tories that have never served.
    There was a recent fashion, which extended to many pbers, for ex-soldiers which saw Rory Stewart and others like Tom Tugendhat and Johnny Mercer touted as future party leaders, along with Dan Jarvis for Labour. The political analysis never got very far beyond, "he has a great back-story".
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,650

    Dura_Ace said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Saw Rory The Tory on Question Time.

    What's the big deal about him with people on here? He's a complete waste of space?

    Tories always get a bit damp around the gusset for an ex military type. Especially those Toy Soldier Tories that have never served.
    There was a recent fashion, which extended to many pbers, for ex-soldiers which saw Rory Stewart and others like Tom Tugendhat and Johnny Mercer touted as future party leaders, along with Dan Jarvis for Labour. The political analysis never got very far beyond, "he has a great back-story".
    Their only skill was being able to do as ordered without question, which is a great bonus in Westminster where as many sheep as possible are needed.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,757
    Off-topic:

    SpaceX to announce they're going to launch someone on a round-Moon mission on their BFR rocket. Identity of the putative astronaut to be made on Monday.

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/09/spacex-says-its-bfr-will-fly-someone-around-the-moon-we-have-questions/

    I'm deeply cynical about this. Musk has a habit of announcing spectacular news from one of his companies when another company (or he himself) gets bad press. Often these are not as 'spectacular' as it seems at first sight.

    This has essentially been announced before back in early 2017, except then it was going to be two astronauts in a Dragon 2 capsule, lifted on a Falcon Heavy. This was probably achievable: the Falcon Heavy was within a year of launch, and the Dragon 2 is being funded by NASA.

    Last night's announcement says the astronaut will be launched on the BFR which, as the latest artists' representation shows, is still undergoing radical changes in design. It is also probably mostly unfunded, and I doubt their rather optimistic timescales are anywhere near realistic.

    Still, it'll be interesting to see what is said on Monday.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,757
    I see the get-Rory crowd are out in force this morning. Since they can't actually say any real reason why they think he'd be bad (aside from the usual insults), then I guess they actually worried he might do a good job. ;)

    (runs for cover)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,757
    Just when the Conservatives join in the anti-Semitism mess, the left have to interrupt their mistake:

    "A trade union leader has been recorded suggesting that Israel "created" the anti-Semitism row in the Labour Party.

    In a recording published by the Independent, PCS general secretary Mark Serwotka suggested the country had created the story to hide what he called its own "atrocities"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45517094

    It really is a race to the bottom.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 715
    edited September 14

    Just when the Conservatives join in the anti-Semitism mess, the left have to interrupt their mistake:

    "A trade union leader has been recorded suggesting that Israel "created" the anti-Semitism row in the Labour Party.

    In a recording published by the Independent, PCS general secretary Mark Serwotka suggested the country had created the story to hide what he called its own "atrocities"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45517094

    It really is a race to the bottom.

    The Zionist regime is much better at the black arts of "maskirovka" than present-day Russia - witness the farce about the recent 'tourist' visit to Salisbury. It is also assisted in the UK by the Bliarites.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,757
    daodao said:

    Just when the Conservatives join in the anti-Semitism mess, the left have to interrupt their mistake:

    "A trade union leader has been recorded suggesting that Israel "created" the anti-Semitism row in the Labour Party.

    In a recording published by the Independent, PCS general secretary Mark Serwotka suggested the country had created the story to hide what he called its own "atrocities"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45517094

    It really is a race to the bottom.

    The Zionist regime is much better at the black arts of "maskirovka" than present-day Russia - witness the farce about the recent tourist visit to Salisbury.
    Yes, the Russians really aren't very competent. It was a farce by them.

    Do I guess that's not what you mean? ;)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 31,314
    Interesting analysis of how some may have got the wrong end of the stick on Carney's "35% house price fall if no-deal Brexit" story yesterday:



    Short version - it isn't a forecast, its the BoE's 'armageddon stress test' for UK bank liquidity.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,991
    Good morning, everyone.

    Almost everyone thinks of themselves as being roughly in the centre. It's just the psychological equivalent of defining others in reference to ourselves, in the same way we make maps with home in the centre. Anyway, will give the podcast a listen a bit later.

    Miss Vance, the media, getting the wrong end of the stick and failing to understand something? Impossible!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,847
    Quite funny coming on here this morning to read how everyone’s predictions are “nailed on”.

    No-one knows anything and no-one knows what will happen.

    It’s just a lot of confirmation bias that will be, inevitably, square-peg-round-holed into whatever deal eventually emerges so the poster can say they were right all along.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,650

    I see the get-Rory crowd are out in force this morning. Since they can't actually say any real reason why they think he'd be bad (aside from the usual insults), then I guess they actually worried he might do a good job. ;)

    (runs for cover)

    His fan boys have been alerted and trying to make out he has ever shown anything ever, laughs loudly.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 31,314
    edited September 14
    Craig Murray is really running with this 'they look shifty 'coz they're gay' thing, isn't he:

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,847

    Interesting analysis of how some may have got the wrong end of the stick on Carney's "35% house price fall if no-deal Brexit" story yesterday:



    Short version - it isn't a forecast, its the BoE's 'armageddon stress test' for UK bank liquidity.

    Yes, that’s fair.

    The media really are pretty crap and sensationalist all round, really, aren’t they?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,650

    Interesting analysis of how some may have got the wrong end of the stick on Carney's "35% house price fall if no-deal Brexit" story yesterday:



    Short version - it isn't a forecast, its the BoE's 'armageddon stress test' for UK bank liquidity.

    So deliberate lies then
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,685
    I would have thought that hitting on either of them was the very definition of AYOR.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,650

    daodao said:

    Just when the Conservatives join in the anti-Semitism mess, the left have to interrupt their mistake:

    "A trade union leader has been recorded suggesting that Israel "created" the anti-Semitism row in the Labour Party.

    In a recording published by the Independent, PCS general secretary Mark Serwotka suggested the country had created the story to hide what he called its own "atrocities"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45517094

    It really is a race to the bottom.

    The Zionist regime is much better at the black arts of "maskirovka" than present-day Russia - witness the farce about the recent tourist visit to Salisbury.
    Yes, the Russians really aren't very competent. It was a farce by them.

    Do I guess that's not what you mean? ;)
    You don't think they came to see that world renowned cathedral and were train buffs so stayed in London to be able to make lots of train journeys to Salisbury on their 3 day whistlestop tour.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,685
    Hmmm. I put my flat on the market on Tuesday night and by Thursday there’s talk of 35% property price falls. Suboptimal.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,650

    Hmmm. I put my flat on the market on Tuesday night and by Thursday there’s talk of 35% property price falls. Suboptimal.

    Pocket money for you Alastair
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,757
    malcolmg said:

    daodao said:

    Just when the Conservatives join in the anti-Semitism mess, the left have to interrupt their mistake:

    "A trade union leader has been recorded suggesting that Israel "created" the anti-Semitism row in the Labour Party.

    In a recording published by the Independent, PCS general secretary Mark Serwotka suggested the country had created the story to hide what he called its own "atrocities"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45517094

    It really is a race to the bottom.

    The Zionist regime is much better at the black arts of "maskirovka" than present-day Russia - witness the farce about the recent tourist visit to Salisbury.
    Yes, the Russians really aren't very competent. It was a farce by them.

    Do I guess that's not what you mean? ;)
    You don't think they came to see that world renowned cathedral and were train buffs so stayed in London to be able to make lots of train journeys to Salisbury on their 3 day whistlestop tour.
    If one of them was called Sunilski then I might believe that. Although they'd have to have got to Salisbury by two different train routes. ;)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,757
    That was awesome. I was expecting someone to throw a bucket of water over her ...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,445
    edited September 14

    daodao said:

    Just when the Conservatives join in the anti-Semitism mess, the left have to interrupt their mistake:

    "A trade union leader has been recorded suggesting that Israel "created" the anti-Semitism row in the Labour Party.

    In a recording published by the Independent, PCS general secretary Mark Serwotka suggested the country had created the story to hide what he called its own "atrocities"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45517094

    It really is a race to the bottom.

    The Zionist regime is much better at the black arts of "maskirovka" than present-day Russia - witness the farce about the recent tourist visit to Salisbury.
    Yes, the Russians really aren't very competent. It was a farce by them.

    Do I guess that's not what you mean? ;)
    The joke's on us unfortunately. A state sends two agents into another country to murder two citizens and kills innocent bystanders. Then it makes a joke about it because it doesn't care who knows it did this.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,768

    Hmmm. I put my flat on the market on Tuesday night and by Thursday there’s talk of 35% property price falls. Suboptimal.

    I dunno, sounds like you're getting out at just the right time!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,757
    FF43 said:

    daodao said:

    Just when the Conservatives join in the anti-Semitism mess, the left have to interrupt their mistake:

    "A trade union leader has been recorded suggesting that Israel "created" the anti-Semitism row in the Labour Party.

    In a recording published by the Independent, PCS general secretary Mark Serwotka suggested the country had created the story to hide what he called its own "atrocities"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45517094

    It really is a race to the bottom.

    The Zionist regime is much better at the black arts of "maskirovka" than present-day Russia - witness the farce about the recent tourist visit to Salisbury.
    Yes, the Russians really aren't very competent. It was a farce by them.

    Do I guess that's not what you mean? ;)
    The joke's on us unfortunately. A state sends two agents into another country to murder of its citizens and kills innocent bystanders. Then it makes a joke about it because it doesn't care who knows they did this.
    They may not care, but it's already had some consequences for them, and their reaction might mean there are further consequences. Hit Putin and his chums in their pockets.

    In the medium term, this might be a tactical win for Putin, but a strategic loss.

    It's a shame, as Russia could be a truly great country - it certainly has the makings of one. But Putin can't be arsed to make it one.
  • Despite all the bluster it seems pretty straight forward.

    The UK can rescind A50 or at the very least beg an extension. Requires / causes the fall of the government
    The UK can exit to EEA with a "CU" bolt on. If not the actual Customs Union then a 100% alignment with to effectively stay in. Rejected by both front benches, so would create absolute ruptions
    The UK can not agree a deal and crash out. The "WTO will let us do x" brigade are wrong as WTO experts have pointed out. As the details as to just how fucked we are come out would cause the fall of the government.

    Chequers was DOA - cakeism repeatedly rejected by the Commission. That the government are still clinging to it in the hope that the EU change their mind demonstrates how empty their locker is.
    May is finished - its just a question of when. Crash Brexit would have the ERG move quickly to secure the "benefits"/before the truth about the disaster becomes self-evident. EEA breaks the manifesto and creates mass Tory resignations. Delay/rescind more so.

    On the Labour side its simpler. The manifesto allows for EEA, its only Corbyn statements that ruled it out. So he misspoke, didn't say that, ITS ALL A JEWISH PLOT etc and we're back ok with EEA.

    And at the height of the Tory civil war? Government business managers want to get through the MP Cull bill that costs Tories MPs seats and forces some to battle each other for the remaining chairs. I'm not losing sleep over the idea of this passing...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,810

    That was awesome. I was expecting someone to throw a bucket of water over her ...
    Even people who voted for Trump might take that seriously with such a vivid demonstration of the reality they will be facing. Is this storm not due to arrive this morning?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,810

    Hmmm. I put my flat on the market on Tuesday night and by Thursday there’s talk of 35% property price falls. Suboptimal.

    It's ok Alastair, no one believes it. And just think what sort of gains you have got built in on the back of QE.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,445

    Interesting analysis of how some may have got the wrong end of the stick on Carney's "35% house price fall if no-deal Brexit" story yesterday:



    Short version - it isn't a forecast, its the BoE's 'armageddon stress test' for UK bank liquidity.

    It's a good thread on stress testing. I would say Carney's job is to prevent Brexit being as bad s the Credit Crunch by taking mitigating action. This is the purpose of stress testing. Top mitigation is a Withdrawal deal.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,451



    The UK can rescind A50 or at the very least beg an extension.

    The important caveat is with the unanimous consent of the 27 other EU states.

    That probably would be forthcoming but it's not guaranteed and couldn't be unilateral.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,685
    DavidL said:

    Hmmm. I put my flat on the market on Tuesday night and by Thursday there’s talk of 35% property price falls. Suboptimal.

    It's ok Alastair, no one believes it. And just think what sort of gains you have got built in on the back of QE.
    As it happens, I am expecting property prices in London to fall quite steeply in the coming years and relative to the rest of the country, though not particularly because of Brexit (though that certainly won’t help). Remote working is rising very sharply now - I’m currently sat on a commuter train with plenty of spare seats. The need to live close to your nominal office has probably peaked for senior staff and is cascading down the pecking order. Why would you pay premium prices for convenience that is no longer all that convenient?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,810
    FF43 said:

    Interesting analysis of how some may have got the wrong end of the stick on Carney's "35% house price fall if no-deal Brexit" story yesterday:



    Short version - it isn't a forecast, its the BoE's 'armageddon stress test' for UK bank liquidity.

    It's a good thread on stress testing. I would say Carney's job is to prevent Brexit being as bad s the Credit Crunch by taking mitigating action. This is the purpose of stress testing. Top mitigation is a Withdrawal deal.
    Yes it is and it shows that our banking sector is a lot more robust than it was in 2007/8. Which is nice. Carney must get seriously fed up with people distorting what he is actually saying.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,810
    ydoethur said:



    The UK can rescind A50 or at the very least beg an extension.

    The important caveat is with the unanimous consent of the 27 other EU states.

    That probably would be forthcoming but it's not guaranteed and couldn't be unilateral.
    Plus could we really stand more months of this nonsense? As the cricket season comes to an end it threatens to be even more unbearable with only your puns for light relief.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,991
    Mr. Pioneers, what's wrong with a Canada-style deal, perhaps with additional bits?
  • DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:



    The UK can rescind A50 or at the very least beg an extension.

    The important caveat is with the unanimous consent of the 27 other EU states.

    That probably would be forthcoming but it's not guaranteed and couldn't be unilateral.
    Plus could we really stand more months of this nonsense? As the cricket season comes to an end it threatens to be even more unbearable with only your puns for light relief.
    It only happens if the May government falls. She can't ask for an extension because incompetent as she wouldn't get it and wouldn't survive asking for it. So she's gone and a new PM asks. If its an ERG loon they won't ask. If its Javid or Hunt or Corbyn they ask and probably get.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,451
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:



    The UK can rescind A50 or at the very least beg an extension.

    The important caveat is with the unanimous consent of the 27 other EU states.

    That probably would be forthcoming but it's not guaranteed and couldn't be unilateral.
    Plus could we really stand more months of this nonsense? As the cricket season comes to an end it threatens to be even more unbearable with only your puns for light relief.
    Don't worry, I won't let EU down...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,451

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:



    The UK can rescind A50 or at the very least beg an extension.

    The important caveat is with the unanimous consent of the 27 other EU states.

    That probably would be forthcoming but it's not guaranteed and couldn't be unilateral.
    Plus could we really stand more months of this nonsense? As the cricket season comes to an end it threatens to be even more unbearable with only your puns for light relief.
    It only happens if the May government falls. She can't ask for an extension because incompetent as she wouldn't get it and wouldn't survive asking for it. So she's gone and a new PM asks. If its an ERG loon they won't ask. If its Javid or Hunt or Corbyn they ask and probably get.
    I don't think Javid or Corbyn would try to rescind or even extend A50, although they might possibly seek an extension to the transition period. Hunt might but he's also less likely to be PM.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,810

    DavidL said:

    Hmmm. I put my flat on the market on Tuesday night and by Thursday there’s talk of 35% property price falls. Suboptimal.

    It's ok Alastair, no one believes it. And just think what sort of gains you have got built in on the back of QE.
    As it happens, I am expecting property prices in London to fall quite steeply in the coming years and relative to the rest of the country, though not particularly because of Brexit (though that certainly won’t help). Remote working is rising very sharply now - I’m currently sat on a commuter train with plenty of spare seats. The need to live close to your nominal office has probably peaked for senior staff and is cascading down the pecking order. Why would you pay premium prices for convenience that is no longer all that convenient?
    I will believe large scale remote working about the same time as I manage to have a paperless office. In the meantime I will continue to hump ever heavier bags of paper around.

    There are so many more benefits of people actually going into work. They have their fellow workers to consult formally or informally face to face, they form social groupings which help in difficult times, they build a sense of team. Obviously we will all take the opportunities to work from home occasionally but the commute will remain a staple part of most peoples existence.

    London prices may well fall if there is a reduction in the wall of foreign money that has been causing them to outperform the rest of the UK but the need for safe havens have not gone away. I found the article by Ann Applebaum linked to yesterday genuinely concerning. I also think London will continue to attract international talent going forward giving a further boost to demand. There will always be fluctuations but with the current state of sterling UK property is cheap. If we get a deal and 10% appreciation of Sterling that might change in the short term.
  • malcolmg said:

    daodao said:

    Just when the Conservatives join in the anti-Semitism mess, the left have to interrupt their mistake:

    "A trade union leader has been recorded suggesting that Israel "created" the anti-Semitism row in the Labour Party.

    In a recording published by the Independent, PCS general secretary Mark Serwotka suggested the country had created the story to hide what he called its own "atrocities"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45517094

    It really is a race to the bottom.

    The Zionist regime is much better at the black arts of "maskirovka" than present-day Russia - witness the farce about the recent tourist visit to Salisbury.
    Yes, the Russians really aren't very competent. It was a farce by them.

    Do I guess that's not what you mean? ;)
    You don't think they came to see that world renowned cathedral and were train buffs so stayed in London to be able to make lots of train journeys to Salisbury on their 3 day whistlestop tour.
    If one of them was called Sunilski then I might believe that. Although they'd have to have got to Salisbury by two different train routes. ;)
    I had the same thought on the trains aspect.
  • ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:



    The UK can rescind A50 or at the very least beg an extension.

    The important caveat is with the unanimous consent of the 27 other EU states.

    That probably would be forthcoming but it's not guaranteed and couldn't be unilateral.
    Plus could we really stand more months of this nonsense? As the cricket season comes to an end it threatens to be even more unbearable with only your puns for light relief.
    It only happens if the May government falls. She can't ask for an extension because incompetent as she wouldn't get it and wouldn't survive asking for it. So she's gone and a new PM asks. If its an ERG loon they won't ask. If its Javid or Hunt or Corbyn they ask and probably get.
    I don't think Javid or Corbyn would try to rescind or even extend A50, although they might possibly seek an extension to the transition period. Hunt might but he's also less likely to be PM.
    They'll ask. Because in the circumstance of May falling there isn't a deal and that means no transition period. We're facing crash Brexit which as the papers being released and the various experts poit out means the UK is utterly fucked. Like I said, we'd beg.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,445
    DavidL said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting analysis of how some may have got the wrong end of the stick on Carney's "35% house price fall if no-deal Brexit" story yesterday:



    Short version - it isn't a forecast, its the BoE's 'armageddon stress test' for UK bank liquidity.

    It's a good thread on stress testing. I would say Carney's job is to prevent Brexit being as bad s the Credit Crunch by taking mitigating action. This is the purpose of stress testing. Top mitigation is a Withdrawal deal.
    Yes it is and it shows that our banking sector is a lot more robust than it was in 2007/8. Which is nice. Carney must get seriously fed up with people distorting what he is actually saying.
    I don't think it's a reporting exercise however - we have tested the scenario and everything is in hand. Carney is pushing hard on action to avoid a potentially disastrous outcome. In particular that the politicians get their act together on the withdrawal agreement and transition.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,053

    DavidL said:

    Hmmm. I put my flat on the market on Tuesday night and by Thursday there’s talk of 35% property price falls. Suboptimal.

    It's ok Alastair, no one believes it. And just think what sort of gains you have got built in on the back of QE.
    As it happens, I am expecting property prices in London to fall quite steeply in the coming years and relative to the rest of the country, though not particularly because of Brexit (though that certainly won’t help). Remote working is rising very sharply now - I’m currently sat on a commuter train with plenty of spare seats. The need to live close to your nominal office has probably peaked for senior staff and is cascading down the pecking order. Why would you pay premium prices for convenience that is no longer all that convenient?
    Agreed - and lower prices might help key workers in London .
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,451

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:



    The UK can rescind A50 or at the very least beg an extension.

    The important caveat is with the unanimous consent of the 27 other EU states.

    That probably would be forthcoming but it's not guaranteed and couldn't be unilateral.
    Plus could we really stand more months of this nonsense? As the cricket season comes to an end it threatens to be even more unbearable with only your puns for light relief.
    It only happens if the May government falls. She can't ask for an extension because incompetent as she wouldn't get it and wouldn't survive asking for it. So she's gone and a new PM asks. If its an ERG loon they won't ask. If its Javid or Hunt or Corbyn they ask and probably get.
    I don't think Javid or Corbyn would try to rescind or even extend A50, although they might possibly seek an extension to the transition period. Hunt might but he's also less likely to be PM.
    They'll ask. Because in the circumstance of May falling there isn't a deal and that means no transition period. We're facing crash Brexit which as the papers being released and the various experts poit out means the UK is utterly fucked. Like I said, we'd beg.
    Yes, Hunt might. But I think Corbyn or Javid - both of whom are extremely Eurosceptic despite lip service to the contrary - would fear the EU would ignore their pleas and present a take-it or leave-it punishment exit deal. Trouble is, they might well be right.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,053
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:



    The UK can rescind A50 or at the very least beg an extension.

    The important caveat is with the unanimous consent of the 27 other EU states.

    That probably would be forthcoming but it's not guaranteed and couldn't be unilateral.
    Plus could we really stand more months of this nonsense? As the cricket season comes to an end it threatens to be even more unbearable with only your puns for light relief.
    Don't worry, I won't let EU down...
    EUEUEUWWWW.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,847

    DavidL said:

    Hmmm. I put my flat on the market on Tuesday night and by Thursday there’s talk of 35% property price falls. Suboptimal.

    It's ok Alastair, no one believes it. And just think what sort of gains you have got built in on the back of QE.
    As it happens, I am expecting property prices in London to fall quite steeply in the coming years and relative to the rest of the country, though not particularly because of Brexit (though that certainly won’t help). Remote working is rising very sharply now - I’m currently sat on a commuter train with plenty of spare seats. The need to live close to your nominal office has probably peaked for senior staff and is cascading down the pecking order. Why would you pay premium prices for convenience that is no longer all that convenient?
    Hurrah for that. Can’t come soon enough.

    Commuting five days a week is a grind.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 10,430
    edited September 14

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:



    The UK can rescind A50 or at the very least beg an extension.

    The important caveat is with the unanimous consent of the 27 other EU states.

    That probably would be forthcoming but it's not guaranteed and couldn't be unilateral.
    Plus could we really stand more months of this nonsense? As the cricket season comes to an end it threatens to be even more unbearable with only your puns for light relief.
    It only happens if the May government falls. She can't ask for an extension because incompetent as she wouldn't get it and wouldn't survive asking for it. So she's gone and a new PM asks. If its an ERG loon they won't ask. If its Javid or Hunt or Corbyn they ask and probably get.
    I don't think Javid or Corbyn would try to rescind or even extend A50, although they might possibly seek an extension to the transition period. Hunt might but he's also less likely to be PM.
    They'll ask. Because in the circumstance of May falling there isn't a deal and that means no transition period. We're facing crash Brexit which as the papers being released and the various experts poit out means the UK is utterly fucked. Like I said, we'd beg.
    No deal is better than a bad deal.

    Yeah right!!!!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,451

    DavidL said:

    Hmmm. I put my flat on the market on Tuesday night and by Thursday there’s talk of 35% property price falls. Suboptimal.

    It's ok Alastair, no one believes it. And just think what sort of gains you have got built in on the back of QE.
    As it happens, I am expecting property prices in London to fall quite steeply in the coming years and relative to the rest of the country, though not particularly because of Brexit (though that certainly won’t help). Remote working is rising very sharply now - I’m currently sat on a commuter train with plenty of spare seats. The need to live close to your nominal office has probably peaked for senior staff and is cascading down the pecking order. Why would you pay premium prices for convenience that is no longer all that convenient?
    Hurrah for that. Can’t come soon enough.

    Commuting five days a week is a grind.
    Surely commuting to London is not so much a grind as several grand?

    I'll get my coat. Have a good day everyone!
  • felix said:

    DavidL said:

    Hmmm. I put my flat on the market on Tuesday night and by Thursday there’s talk of 35% property price falls. Suboptimal.

    It's ok Alastair, no one believes it. And just think what sort of gains you have got built in on the back of QE.
    As it happens, I am expecting property prices in London to fall quite steeply in the coming years and relative to the rest of the country, though not particularly because of Brexit (though that certainly won’t help). Remote working is rising very sharply now - I’m currently sat on a commuter train with plenty of spare seats. The need to live close to your nominal office has probably peaked for senior staff and is cascading down the pecking order. Why would you pay premium prices for convenience that is no longer all that convenient?
    Agreed - and lower prices might help key workers in London .
    There were a lot of Labour MP's going on about house price falls on Twitter last night. Good fun reading the responses saying er, isn't that what you want?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,847
    He’s clearly a europhile, but Charles Grant is as objective and insightful as such people come on European politics.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:



    The UK can rescind A50 or at the very least beg an extension.

    The important caveat is with the unanimous consent of the 27 other EU states.

    That probably would be forthcoming but it's not guaranteed and couldn't be unilateral.
    Plus could we really stand more months of this nonsense? As the cricket season comes to an end it threatens to be even more unbearable with only your puns for light relief.
    It only happens if the May government falls. She can't ask for an extension because incompetent as she wouldn't get it and wouldn't survive asking for it. So she's gone and a new PM asks. If its an ERG loon they won't ask. If its Javid or Hunt or Corbyn they ask and probably get.
    I don't think Javid or Corbyn would try to rescind or even extend A50, although they might possibly seek an extension to the transition period. Hunt might but he's also less likely to be PM.
    They'll ask. Because in the circumstance of May falling there isn't a deal and that means no transition period. We're facing crash Brexit which as the papers being released and the various experts poit out means the UK is utterly fucked. Like I said, we'd beg.
    Yes, Hunt might. But I think Corbyn or Javid - both of whom are extremely Eurosceptic despite lip service to the contrary - would fear the EU would ignore their pleas and present a take-it or leave-it punishment exit deal. Trouble is, they might well be right.
    At which point the option remains to exit to EFTA option becomes the only game in town. We haven't yet triggered A127 of the EEA treaty, so "leave means leave" is the EU - what was on the referendum paper - and not the EEA.

    The UK rejoining an enlarged more powerful EFTA, retaining in full our EEA membership, with a customs regulatory alignment - is the only game in town. Utterly screws dreams of the UK going off negotiating its own deals but as Liam Fux has demonstrated such delusions were utterly deranged anyway.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,129
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Hmmm. I put my flat on the market on Tuesday night and by Thursday there’s talk of 35% property price falls. Suboptimal.

    It's ok Alastair, no one believes it. And just think what sort of gains you have got built in on the back of QE.
    As it happens, I am expecting property prices in London to fall quite steeply in the coming years and relative to the rest of the country, though not particularly because of Brexit (though that certainly won’t help). Remote working is rising very sharply now - I’m currently sat on a commuter train with plenty of spare seats. The need to live close to your nominal office has probably peaked for senior staff and is cascading down the pecking order. Why would you pay premium prices for convenience that is no longer all that convenient?
    I will believe large scale remote working about the same time as I manage to have a paperless office. In the meantime I will continue to hump ever heavier bags of paper around.

    There are so many more benefits of people actually going into work. They have their fellow workers to consult formally or informally face to face, they form social groupings which help in difficult times, they build a sense of team. Obviously we will all take the opportunities to work from home occasionally but the commute will remain a staple part of most peoples existence.

    London prices may well fall if there is a reduction in the wall of foreign money that has been causing them to outperform the rest of the UK but the need for safe havens have not gone away. I found the article by Ann Applebaum linked to yesterday genuinely concerning. I also think London will continue to attract international talent going forward giving a further boost to demand. There will always be fluctuations but with the current state of sterling UK property is cheap. If we get a deal and 10% appreciation of Sterling that might change in the short term.
    Though our Salisbury tourists demonstrate that safe havens are not all that safe.

    Home working is tricky for me. At times I need to handle my customers face to face.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,209

    DavidL said:

    Hmmm. I put my flat on the market on Tuesday night and by Thursday there’s talk of 35% property price falls. Suboptimal.

    It's ok Alastair, no one believes it. And just think what sort of gains you have got built in on the back of QE.
    As it happens, I am expecting property prices in London to fall quite steeply in the coming years and relative to the rest of the country, though not particularly because of Brexit (though that certainly won’t help). Remote working is rising very sharply now - I’m currently sat on a commuter train with plenty of spare seats. The need to live close to your nominal office has probably peaked for senior staff and is cascading down the pecking order. Why would you pay premium prices for convenience that is no longer all that convenient?
    Of course the ideal would be to work for an organisation in central London but largely remotely and live in a big detached house in the SouthWest, Wales, the Midlands or the North
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,757
    This year's Ig Nobel award winners are out:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-45513012

    Some great and world-altering research there. :)
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,445

    DavidL said:

    Hmmm. I put my flat on the market on Tuesday night and by Thursday there’s talk of 35% property price falls. Suboptimal.

    It's ok Alastair, no one believes it. And just think what sort of gains you have got built in on the back of QE.
    As it happens, I am expecting property prices in London to fall quite steeply in the coming years and relative to the rest of the country, though not particularly because of Brexit (though that certainly won’t help). Remote working is rising very sharply now - I’m currently sat on a commuter train with plenty of spare seats. The need to live close to your nominal office has probably peaked for senior staff and is cascading down the pecking order. Why would you pay premium prices for convenience that is no longer all that convenient?
    I think the trend is to distribute business activity to where talent is at an affordable price. So you may have senior management in one place, sales in various other places, back office functions in different places. You are not going to get everyone together in one room, so you don't even try. It's fifteen years since I have conducted most of my reporting face to face.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,209

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:



    The UK can rescind A50 or at the very least beg an extension.

    The important caveat is with the unanimous consent of the 27 other EU states.

    That probably would be forthcoming but it's not guaranteed and couldn't be unilateral.
    Plus could we really stand more months of this nonsense? As the cricket season comes to an end it threatens to be even more unbearable with only your puns for light relief.
    It only happens if the May government falls. She can't ask for an extension because incompetent as she wouldn't get it and wouldn't survive asking for it. So she's gone and a new PM asks. If its an ERG loon they won't ask. If its Javid or Hunt or Corbyn they ask and probably get.
    I don't think Javid or Corbyn would try to rescind or even extend A50, although they might possibly seek an extension to the transition period. Hunt might but he's also less likely to be PM.
    They'll ask. Because in the circumstance of May falling there isn't a deal and that means no transition period. We're facing crash Brexit which as the papers being released and the various experts poit out means the UK is utterly fucked. Like I said, we'd beg.
    Yes, Hunt might. But I think Corbyn or Javid - both of whom are extremely Eurosceptic despite lip service to the contrary - would fear the EU would ignore their pleas and present a take-it or leave-it punishment exit deal. Trouble is, they might well be right.
    At which point the option remains to exit to EFTA option becomes the only game in town. We haven't yet triggered A127 of the EEA treaty, so "leave means leave" is the EU - what was on the referendum paper - and not the EEA.

    The UK rejoining an enlarged more powerful EFTA, retaining in full our EEA membership, with a customs regulatory alignment - is the only game in town. Utterly screws dreams of the UK going off negotiating its own deals but as Liam Fux has demonstrated such delusions were utterly deranged anyway.
    Full EEA/EFTA requires free movement though so more likely it will be Chequers Plus ie effectively following services regulations too which was Barnier' s main gripe about what was missing in Chequers as it stands now
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,757
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Hmmm. I put my flat on the market on Tuesday night and by Thursday there’s talk of 35% property price falls. Suboptimal.

    It's ok Alastair, no one believes it. And just think what sort of gains you have got built in on the back of QE.
    As it happens, I am expecting property prices in London to fall quite steeply in the coming years and relative to the rest of the country, though not particularly because of Brexit (though that certainly won’t help). Remote working is rising very sharply now - I’m currently sat on a commuter train with plenty of spare seats. The need to live close to your nominal office has probably peaked for senior staff and is cascading down the pecking order. Why would you pay premium prices for convenience that is no longer all that convenient?
    Of course the ideal would be to work for an organisation in central London but largely remotely and live in a big detached house in the SouthWest, Wales, the Midlands or the North
    I got in a discussion with a BBC journalist when he complained about new housing developments (in this case, one near Kettering). He bemoaned various aspects when comparing it with his own house and village. I pointed out that we couldn't all have jobs that allowed us to live and work in thatched cottages in mid-Wales ...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,570
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:



    The UK can rescind A50 or at the very least beg an extension.

    The important caveat is with the unanimous consent of the 27 other EU states.

    That probably would be forthcoming but it's not guaranteed and couldn't be unilateral.
    Plus could we really stand more months of this nonsense? As the cricket season comes to an end it threatens to be even more unbearable with only your puns for light relief.
    It only happens if the May government falls. She can't ask for an extension because incompetent as she wouldn't get it and wouldn't survive asking for it. So she's gone and a new PM asks. If its an ERG loon they won't ask. If its Javid or Hunt or Corbyn they ask and probably get.
    I don't think Javid or Corbyn would try to rescind or even extend A50, although they might possibly seek an extension to the transition period. Hunt might but he's also less likely to be PM.
    They'll ask. Because in the circumstance of May falling there isn't a deal and that means no transition period. We're facing crash Brexit which as the papers being released and the various experts poit out means the UK is utterly fucked. Like I said, we'd beg.
    Yes, Hunt might. But I think Corbyn or Javid - both of whom are extremely Eurosceptic despite lip service to the contrary - would fear the EU would ignore their pleas and present a take-it or leave-it punishment exit deal. Trouble is, they might well be right.
    At which point the option remains to exit to EFTA option becomes the only game in town. We haven't yet triggered A127 of the EEA treaty, so "leave means leave" is the EU - what was on the referendum paper - and not the EEA.

    The UK rejoining an enlarged more powerful EFTA, retaining in full our EEA membership, with a customs regulatory alignment - is the only game in town. Utterly screws dreams of the UK going off negotiating its own deals but as Liam Fux has demonstrated such delusions were utterly deranged anyway.
    Full EEA/EFTA requires free movement though so more likely it will be Chequers Plus ie effectively following services regulations too which was Barnier' s main gripe about what was missing in Chequers as it stands now
    What was Boris Johnson’s objection to Chequers and what do you think his view of Chequers Plus along those lines would be? More importantly what do you think he’ll do about it?
  • They may be relaxed about Gibralter, Gibraltar otoh..
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,129
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Hmmm. I put my flat on the market on Tuesday night and by Thursday there’s talk of 35% property price falls. Suboptimal.

    It's ok Alastair, no one believes it. And just think what sort of gains you have got built in on the back of QE.
    As it happens, I am expecting property prices in London to fall quite steeply in the coming years and relative to the rest of the country, though not particularly because of Brexit (though that certainly won’t help). Remote working is rising very sharply now - I’m currently sat on a commuter train with plenty of spare seats. The need to live close to your nominal office has probably peaked for senior staff and is cascading down the pecking order. Why would you pay premium prices for convenience that is no longer all that convenient?
    Of course the ideal would be to work for an organisation in central London but largely remotely and live in a big detached house in the SouthWest, Wales, the Midlands or the North
    The best places to live are cities, particularly those with a University, Theatre, arts cinema, Waitrose, and football team. That's all I need. Add in the cheap and good quality Victorian housing of Leicester and you have a real winner :)

    Having to get in the car every time that you need a pint of milk is not my idea of fun.
This discussion has been closed.