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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on Labour’s GB wide share of the vote at the next general election

Ladbrokes have a market up on Labour’s GB wide share of the vote at the next election and this is a market I’m going to avoid for the time being for the following known unknowns

Read the full story here

asjohnstone

Crazy market, in what possible world is >50% twice as likely as < 20%.

Personally I like the 20% - 30% band, even with a new party there is a still a lot of value in the brand, in 1983 they still got 27%, for me that's a support level that's hard to dip under.

FrancisUrquhart

What a fantastic fight...same time next year for the trilogy.

Sandpit

The 6/1 on 20-30% is the possible value, but no, too many variables in play, not least of which is the four years until the next scheduled election.

I can get 6/1 on Brendon Hartley scoring points in the Singapore demolition derby Grand Prix and it’ll pay out today.

tlg86

FrancisUrquhart said:

What a fantastic fight...same time next year for the trilogy.

Someone on here tipped Alvarez. They also tipped the draw at 25-1 and it nearly came in:

https://twitter.com/DeclanTaylor87/status/1041181146300604416

rcs1000

If this was a Betfair market, I think I would simply sell the 16-1 on 50%+. The odds are probably somewhere in the 30 to 50-1 range.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Interesting thought, though I'd be irked if they did split and Labour got 21%.

F1: will peruse the markets fairly soon. Hopefully more of them will have gone up.

NickPalmer

At present the boring 30-40 range looks plausible - assumes a not very effective split and various other factors cancelling out. Given the resilience of the Labour polling in the 37-41 range after what was indubitably a suboptimal summer, it's hard to see it dropping below 30 no matter what. Equally I can't see it soaring past 50%, though low 40s would be possible. A 35-45 range would be odds on.

Since we don't know what the 1997 Tory vote will be doing it's impossible to guess if say 39% will be enough to win.

Charles

NickPalmer said:

At present the boring 30-40 range looks plausible - assumes a not very effective split and various other factors cancelling out. Given the resilience of the Labour polling in the 37-41 range after what was indubitably a suboptimal summer, it's hard to see it dropping below 30 no matter what. Equally I can't see it soaring past 50%, though low 40s would be possible. A 35-45 range would be odds on.

Since we don't know what the 1997 Tory vote will be doing it's impossible to guess if say 39% will be enough to win.

Tick tock

Morris_Dancer

As an aside, I wonder if there's any chance of Davidson becoming the Conservative equivalent of Numa.

IanB2

I agree with the lead that there isn't a compelling bet here right now. The best value to me is the 6/1 below 30%, since some sort of event that pushes Labour back down to its historic low isnt impossible; 6/1 is probably close to fair odds. Alternatively you take the view that Brexit will hole the Tories and there'll be no more sensible alternative, and plump for above 40%.

Morris_Dancer

F1: blimey. Still only 11 markets up.

Bit rubbish.

JosiasJessop

Morris_Dancer said:

As an aside, I wonder if there's any chance of Davidson becoming the Conservative equivalent of Numa.

So who's Dirk Pitt?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Jessop, I must've missed reading about that particular Roman king/emperor.

NickPalmer

Charles said:

Tick tock

Ask not for whom the clock ticks...

ydoethur

Of course, one issue with Corbyn is if the boundary review goes through his seat is abolished.

Would he kick out Thornberry to take the combined seat? Would he get another elsewhere as part of the mandatory reselections the Mad Mul...er, Chris Williamson is so forcefully pushing? Or would he take the opportunity to retire gracefully and let someone else have a go?

AlastairMeeks

Evens on 30-40% looks very generous.

JosiasJessop

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jessop, I must've missed reading about that particular Roman king/emperor.

I know little about Roman kings or emperors, but as a kid I did read loads of pulp fiction:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Underwater_and_Marine_Agency#The_fictional_NUMA

'Numa' will always mean Dirk Pitt and Al Giordino to me, along with a sprinkling of Admiral James Sandecker.

Foxy

NickPalmer said:

At present the boring 30-40 range looks plausible - assumes a not very effective split and various other factors cancelling out. Given the resilience of the Labour polling in the 37-41 range after what was indubitably a suboptimal summer, it's hard to see it dropping below 30 no matter what. Equally I can't see it soaring past 50%, though low 40s would be possible. A 35-45 range would be odds on.

Since we don't know what the 1997 Tory vote will be doing it's impossible to guess if say 39% will be enough to win.

I reckon 30-40% too, but not keen to tie up money for up to 4 years at evens. the polling stalemate over the last year will break at some point

ydoethur

NickPalmer said:

Charles said:

Tick tock

Ask not for whom the clock ticks...

Well, that's good advice. When the posher clocks stop ticking it usually comes to a bell end.

I'll get my coat.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Jessop, ah, fair enough.

Numa was the second king of Rome, and wasn't even in Rome when others decided he should succeed Romulus. He put into place, I think, lots of the long term institutions and laws that served the early republic well. (Although some suggest it was his 'friends' who helpfully suggested making him king).

CarlottaVance

One of Scotland’s most senior detectives has been assigned to lead the investigation into sex claims against Alex Salmond.

Detective Chief Superintendent Lesley Boal has been drafted in to spearhead the probe, with unprecedented senior resources at her disposal for such an inquiry. As the Head of Public Protection for Scotland, Boal is one of the most highly regarded officers on the force.

It emerged yesterday that Police Scotland had stepped up its operation, with a full blown investigation now underway. And the Sunday Mail has learned Boal will be given “every resource necessary”, with up to four detective chief inspectors at her disposal.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/alex-salmond-sex-claims-handled-13253766

JosiasJessop

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jessop, ah, fair enough.

Numa was the second king of Rome, and wasn't even in Rome when others decided he should succeed Romulus. He put into place, I think, lots of the long term institutions and laws that served the early republic well. (Although some suggest it was his 'friends' who helpfully suggested making him king).

As a writer, you should quite like Clive Cussler's books - especially his early ones, before the 'with ... ' authors that are mostly ghost-written. He wrote pretty much the same plot in about a dozen books, most of which sold phenomenally well.

So much so, it's possible to write a 'Clive Cussler plot generator."
*) Pick an historical event at a dramatic moment as a prologue.
*) In the modern day, place a professional woman (e.g. UN diplomat) in peril.
*) Dirk Pitt just so happens to be in the area to rescue her.
*) The peril the woman faced is from a shadowy group that has connections with the historical event first described.
*) A threat develops, involving the shadowy group and the historical event.

So, for instance, you might have a prologue about the eruption of Vesuvius.
In modern-day Australia, a beautiful, intelligent archaeologist is attacked by armed men whilst travelling to a conference. Dirk Pitt, who just so happened to be in the area to test his submersible, sees the attack and breaks it up. Meanwhile, a volcanic eruption in Indonesia appears to have been caused by strange tremors from a nearby mining rig ...

The books got a little boring and samey after a while, but they sold well. The later co-written ones are a bit pants.

ydoethur

JosiasJessop said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jessop, ah, fair enough.

Numa was the second king of Rome, and wasn't even in Rome when others decided he should succeed Romulus. He put into place, I think, lots of the long term institutions and laws that served the early republic well. (Although some suggest it was his 'friends' who helpfully suggested making him king).

As a writer, you should quite like Clive Cussler's books - especially his early ones, before the 'with ... ' authors that are mostly ghost-written. He wrote pretty much the same plot in about a dozen books, most of which sold phenomenally well.

Is it Bernard Cornwell who was said to have written not 33 books, but one book 33 times?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Doethur, ha, I like the Sharpe books a lot but don't get them any more. I don't dislike Cornwell but I have limited reading time and there can be a feeling of excessive familiarity at times.

Mr. Jessop, must admit, some of the Sir Edric stories can be a little too similar (in my defence, a big journey for reason X is in a lot of fantasy). Tried fiddling with it a bit this time around, without taking the Kingdom route of setting it in one city with several trips outside for invasions etc.

Ishmael_Z

ydoethur said:

JosiasJessop said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jessop, ah, fair enough.

Numa was the second king of Rome, and wasn't even in Rome when others decided he should succeed Romulus. He put into place, I think, lots of the long term institutions and laws that served the early republic well. (Although some suggest it was his 'friends' who helpfully suggested making him king).

As a writer, you should quite like Clive Cussler's books - especially his early ones, before the 'with ... ' authors that are mostly ghost-written. He wrote pretty much the same plot in about a dozen books, most of which sold phenomenally well.

Is it Bernard Cornwell who was said to have written not 33 books, but one book 33 times?

I don't think that is fair. The 3 Arthur novels are as good as, but different from, the Sharpe series.

ydoethur

Ishmael_Z said:

ydoethur said:

JosiasJessop said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jessop, ah, fair enough.

Numa was the second king of Rome, and wasn't even in Rome when others decided he should succeed Romulus. He put into place, I think, lots of the long term institutions and laws that served the early republic well. (Although some suggest it was his 'friends' who helpfully suggested making him king).

As a writer, you should quite like Clive Cussler's books - especially his early ones, before the 'with ... ' authors that are mostly ghost-written. He wrote pretty much the same plot in about a dozen books, most of which sold phenomenally well.

Is it Bernard Cornwell who was said to have written not 33 books, but one book 33 times?

I don't think that is fair. The 3 Arthur novels are as good as, but different from, the Sharpe series.

In many ways the most interesting and original of his works is Gallows Thief. But read Sharpe, then Thomas of Hookton, and Agincourt, and then the Saxon chronicles and you get a strong feeling of deja vu.

ydoethur

Mind you, this is true of most highly successful authors. Alistair Maclean, Ian Fleming, Dick Francis and Peter Tremayne all have the same feel - even the later Cadfaels of Ellis Peters. This is I think largely because people buy them because they know what they're getting, and like it.

Maclean and Fleming both experimented with their writing styles (e.g. The Last Frontier and The Spy Who Loved Me) and these were very badly received. So you can't blame them for keeping with what works.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Z, the Warlord Chronicles are my favourite Cornwell books.

Dura_Ace

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jessop, must admit, some of the Sir Edric stories can be a little too similar (in my defence, a big journey for reason X is in a lot of fantasy). Tried fiddling with it a bit this time around, without taking the Kingdom route of setting it in one city with several trips outside for invasions etc.

My wife's friend, who is something I don't really understand in publishing, says "bottle novels" (ie books set in a single location) are sought after because Life of Pi and Bel Canto turned into money machines however they almost never get submitted for publication.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Ace, interesting comment.

In Sir Edric's Kingdom, he gets lumbered as a sort of regent because the king's very sick, so he (mostly) has to stay in the capital. I do have vague ideas of a sort-of single location story where he's trapped in a labyrinth or such.

I like the idea of some sort of diplomatic shenanigans in a closed location (summit in a castle) but it's tricky building a comedic plot around that.

Anyway, nearly finished the first draft of the work in progress, so something to consider a bit later on.

MarqueeMark

If you don't want to be irritated by leadership speculation, luv, then don't call an election and lose a bunch of seats....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45535490

Essexit

ydoethur said:

Of course, one issue with Corbyn is if the boundary review goes through his seat is abolished.

Would he kick out Thornberry to take the combined seat? Would he get another elsewhere as part of the mandatory reselections the Mad Mul...er, Chris Williamson is so forcefully pushing? Or would he take the opportunity to retire gracefully and let someone else have a go?

Thornberry will contest Rochester and Strood.

Pulpstar

Just watched the fight, absolute belter. Have it to GGG by two rounds I think - not seen the result yet though. More pucnhes thrown, landed, better accuracy - think he should be the winner.

Pulpstar

Arf see it was another questionable decision.

ydoethur

Essexit said:

ydoethur said:

Of course, one issue with Corbyn is if the boundary review goes through his seat is abolished.

Would he kick out Thornberry to take the combined seat? Would he get another elsewhere as part of the mandatory reselections the Mad Mul...er, Chris Williamson is so forcefully pushing? Or would he take the opportunity to retire gracefully and let someone else have a go?

Thornberry will contest Rochester and Strood.

I don't think world popcorn supplies could stand the strain!

Maybe she'll go back to Canterbury? She fought that in 2001 and came close to winning it, and it doesn't look as though Duffield will be standing again.

But Corbyn at over 70 would really be the obvious one to make way.

ydoethur

One for @TSE and @Sunil_Prasannan

https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/arts-entertainment/things-theyre-going-to-bollocks-up-in-star-wars-episode-ix-20180830176816

Pulpstar

FrancisUrquhart said:

What a fantastic fight...same time next year for the trilogy.

I thought GGG won this one, though not as wide as the first. If they meet again, Alvarez will win it (As well as being judged to have won it) because age will have caught up with Gennady at that point.

Pulpstar

On topic: 20 - 50% is a 104% book here, the split looks about right to me - 30-40 should probably be slightly odds on but it is marginal.

Foxy

ydoethur said:

Essexit said:

ydoethur said:

Of course, one issue with Corbyn is if the boundary review goes through his seat is abolished.

Would he kick out Thornberry to take the combined seat? Would he get another elsewhere as part of the mandatory reselections the Mad Mul...er, Chris Williamson is so forcefully pushing? Or would he take the opportunity to retire gracefully and let someone else have a go?

Thornberry will contest Rochester and Strood.

I don't think world popcorn supplies could stand the strain!

Maybe she'll go back to Canterbury? She fought that in 2001 and came close to winning it, and it doesn't look as though Duffield will be standing again.

But Corbyn at over 70 would really be the obvious one to make way.

Yes, it wouldbe an interesting one, but I think Jezza rather enjoys being in parliament.

It may well depend on when the election happens, but if 2022 would be a good time to bow out gracefully. after 7 years at the top most party leaders run out of steam and energy.

Sandpit

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: blimey. Still only 11 markets up.

Bit rubbish.

Markets seem really slow for this one, looks like it’s going to be a last minute betting rush.

Annoyingly the support races are not televised here, so there’s no live coverage from the track until the drivers’ parade at 11:30 UK time.

DavidL

I agree that 30-40% should be odds on but probably only just. A serious split could drag Labour back to the 20s and a chaotic no deal Brexit with serious repercussions could get them past 40 as the Tories tear themselves apart. And of course it is possible that the Lib Dems might recover. All of these are significantly less than evens possibilities,even adding them together you get get less than evens. Without any of them it is very hard to see Labour out of the 30-40% range.

FWIW I expect Labour to fall back a bit the next time out, especially if they are still led by Corbyn. I would have liked a 30-35% range.

TrèsDifficile

If anyone is struggling to understand the nuances surrounding Brexit, I've found the pictorial guide at the end of this article extremely helpful. Thank you BBC

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45535490

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Sandpit, yeah. It's just a bit annoying.

TOPPING

tlg86 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

What a fantastic fight...same time next year for the trilogy.

Someone on here tipped Alvarez. They also tipped the draw at 25-1 and it nearly came in:

https://twitter.com/DeclanTaylor87/status/1041181146300604416

*blushes*

Yes the draw very nearly came in. Fantastic fight I actually thought GGG might have edged it in the later rounds.

But it sort of went as expected. Canelo not (as) afraid and GGG tiring and showing his (grand old) age.

Theuniondivvie

Peak (or should that be trough) Brexitosis?

https://twitter.com/tradegovuk/status/1040903048892018688

OldKingCole

DavidL said:

I agree that 30-40% should be odds on but probably only just. A serious split could drag Labour back to the 20s and a chaotic no deal Brexit with serious repercussions could get them past 40 as the Tories tear themselves apart. And of course it is possible that the Lib Dems might recover. All of these are significantly less than evens possibilities,even adding them together you get get less than evens. Without any of them it is very hard to see Labour out of the 30-40% range.

FWIW I expect Labour to fall back a bit the next time out, especially if they are still led by Corbyn. I would have liked a 30-35% range.

Inclined to agree; strikes me that the bookmakers are having a quiet time and are looking for a market to encourage punters..
At least in their political division.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1041251027704578050

Morris_Dancer

King Cole, they can't have a referendum or election every year.

This is the first year since 2013, I think, we haven't had either.

Charles

ydoethur said:

Essexit said:

ydoethur said:

Of course, one issue with Corbyn is if the boundary review goes through his seat is abolished.

Would he kick out Thornberry to take the combined seat? Would he get another elsewhere as part of the mandatory reselections the Mad Mul...er, Chris Williamson is so forcefully pushing? Or would he take the opportunity to retire gracefully and let someone else have a go?

Thornberry will contest Rochester and Strood.

I don't think world popcorn supplies could stand the strain!

Maybe she'll go back to Canterbury? She fought that in 2001 and came close to winning it, and it doesn't look as though Duffield will be standing again.

But Corbyn at over 70 would really be the obvious one to make way.

Would be unusual for a party leader to give up his seat!

Why are people so convinced Corbyn will retire? This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for the hard left to secure long term control of Labour.

If he is called to serve then he will serve the cause.

He will only go willingly once (a) the constitutional structure is changed (b) the parliamentary party has been reconstituted and (c) he can guarantee the movement can choose their own successor.

@SeanT once wrote about a bug that paralyses its prey. That’s a good metaphor here - it looks like Labour, but it’s no longer Labour as we knew it. The sooner that the good lefties such as @RochdalePioneers realised that then the sooner we can build a healthy left party. Frankly I’d donate to that organisation even though I’d have no desire to see it elected.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Charles, I'll believe that (the new party, not your donation to it) when I see it.

Selective blindness and vacillation is the order of the day in Labour.

Scott_P

Charles said:

@SeanT once wrote about a bug that paralyses its prey. That’s a good metaphor here - it looks like Labour, but it’s no longer Labour as we knew it. The sooner that the good lefties such as @RochdalePioneers realised that then the sooner we can build a healthy left party. Frankly I’d donate to that organisation even though I’d have no desire to see it elected.

The troubles of the Labour Party are rather less weighty than the agonies of Vichy or even the amour-propre — however disguised as agony — of those poor souls serving in the Trump administration. Nevertheless, the same kind of pattern, or architecture of choice, is evident. You can be a loyal foot soldier serving a leadership whose instinct runs to Hamas, not Fatah, and Sinn Fein, not the SDLP. A leadership cadre recruited from the outer fringes of the Labour movement; a leadership of bona fide Trots and tankies who are not, and never have been, social democrats.

Or you can do something different.

the idea that Corbyn is suddenly going to become a different man, driven by different instincts, is equally misplaced. He is who he is. At a certain point, service becomes acquiescence.


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/alex-massie-there-isnt-a-better-jeremy-corbyn-out-there-qbs539hcn

FF43

Theuniondivvie said:

Peak (or should that be trough) Brexitosis?

https://twitter.com/tradegovuk/status/1040903048892018688

A (restored) spitfire.should fend off Germans bearing BMWs, which as we know they are desperate to sell to us and so will sign up to anything we propose in the easiest deal in history. Question is, though, are they dusting off the V2 flying bomb.as THEIR secret sales tool?

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

OldKingCole said:

DavidL said:

I agree that 30-40% should be odds on but probably only just. A serious split could drag Labour back to the 20s and a chaotic no deal Brexit with serious repercussions could get them past 40 as the Tories tear themselves apart. And of course it is possible that the Lib Dems might recover. All of these are significantly less than evens possibilities,even adding them together you get get less than evens. Without any of them it is very hard to see Labour out of the 30-40% range.

FWIW I expect Labour to fall back a bit the next time out, especially if they are still led by Corbyn. I would have liked a 30-35% range.

Inclined to agree; strikes me that the bookmakers are having a quiet time and are looking for a market to encourage punters..
At least in their political division.

Betting on politics is pretty small beer isn't it

Big_G_NorthWales

Caewyn Jones on Ridge on Sunday said that Chequers was a move in the right direction and Barry Gardiner on the same programme denied Emily Thornberry said labour would take down any deal negotiated by TM and labour would consider how the deal met its requirements

It comes back to my point over the last few days that when TM agrees the deal and it is announced jointly with TM, Tusk and Juncker, with endorsements from Merkel and Macron it will be very difficult for labour to take it down, just when the voter breathes a great sigh of relief

Morris_Dancer

Well, waiting for more markets to get going and one of the things to change is a decrease in the odds on a Verstappen win, from 4.33 to 3.75. Marvellous.

Foxy

Charles said:

ydoethur said:

Essexit said:

ydoethur said:

Of course, one issue with Corbyn is if the boundary review goes through his seat is abolished.

Would he kick out Thornberry to take the combined seat? Would he get another elsewhere as part of the mandatory reselections the Mad Mul...er, Chris Williamson is so forcefully pushing? Or would he take the opportunity to retire gracefully and let someone else have a go?

Thornberry will contest Rochester and Strood.

I don't think world popcorn supplies could stand the strain!

Maybe she'll go back to Canterbury? She fought that in 2001 and came close to winning it, and it doesn't look as though Duffield will be standing again.

But Corbyn at over 70 would really be the obvious one to make way.

Would be unusual for a party leader to give up his seat!

Why are people so convinced Corbyn will retire? This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for the hard left to secure long term control of Labour.

If he is called to serve then he will serve the cause.

He will only go willingly once (a) the constitutional structure is changed (b) the parliamentary party has been reconstituted and (c) he can guarantee the movement can choose their own successor.

@SeanT once wrote about a bug that paralyses its prey. That’s a good metaphor here - it looks like Labour, but it’s no longer Labour as we knew it. The sooner that the good lefties such as @RochdalePioneers realised that then the sooner we can build a healthy left party. Frankly I’d donate to that organisation even though I’d have no desire to see it elected.

Of course, Jezza may wellbe a former leader by 2022!

A lot of the hard lefts grip on Labour is invested in Jezza as an individual, with his marmite-like qualities, I think it far from clear that a fellow traveller would get similar support.

I commented the other night about how I dislike charismatic politicians, who all too often lack the substance needed for effective party management. I would class Jezza with these. Charisma certainly helps with campaigning though. You have to give a fairly cynical populace something to believe in.

OldKingCole

Morris_Dancer said:

King Cole, they can't have a referendum or election every year.

This is the first year since 2013, I think, we haven't had either.

Thank the lord says Brenda from Bristol (probably)! And, in spite of once upon a time being an election junkie, so do I.

Nigelb

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Ace, interesting comment.

In Sir Edric's Kingdom, he gets lumbered as a sort of regent because the king's very sick, so he (mostly) has to stay in the capital. I do have vague ideas of a sort-of single location story where he's trapped in a labyrinth or such.

I like the idea of some sort of diplomatic shenanigans in a closed location (summit in a castle) but it's tricky building a comedic plot around that.

Anyway, nearly finished the first draft of the work in progress, so something to consider a bit later on.

You just have to make the location big enough..... Gormenghast.

OldKingCole

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Caewyn Jones on Ridge on Sunday said that Chequers was a move in the right direction and Barry Gardiner on the same programme denied Emily Thornberry said labour would take down any deal negotiated by TM and labour would consider how the deal met its requirements

It comes back to my point over the last few days that when TM agrees the deal and it is announced jointly with TM, Tusk and Juncker, with endorsements from Merkel and Macron it will be very difficult for labour to take it down, just when the voter breathes a great sigh of relief

Agree; I’m certainly getting the feeling that IF we have a referendum it’ll be ‘Out with this deal’ or ‘Stay in:.

Morris_Dancer

F1: they've added a new market, so I'd guess/hope the full lot will be up over the course of the next hour.

Weirdly, and annoyingly, slow, though.

brendan16

CarlottaVance said:

One of Scotland’s most senior detectives has been assigned to lead the investigation into sex claims against Alex Salmond.

Detective Chief Superintendent Lesley Boal has been drafted in to spearhead the probe, with unprecedented senior resources at her disposal for such an inquiry. As the Head of Public Protection for Scotland, Boal is one of the most highly regarded officers on the force.

It emerged yesterday that Police Scotland had stepped up its operation, with a full blown investigation now underway. And the Sunday Mail has learned Boal will be given “every resource necessary”, with up to four detective chief inspectors at her disposal.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/alex-salmond-sex-claims-handled-13253766

'Every resource necessary' from the police - do alleged crime victims where the accused is not famous also get that?

Seems a lot of resource for an alleged grope in a bedroom however unpleasant it may have been for the women involved. I expect the drug dealers, burglars, muggers, local thugs who commit anti social behaviour on council estates and murderers in Scotland can sleep safe in their beds at a time of constrained police resources! Wouldn't her skills be better deployed?

Should the resources allocated to your reported crime be proportional to the fame of the person alleged to have committed it?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. B, that does raise an interesting point. If you make a castle vast, with varied places within (subterranean tunnels, foetid poor quarters, well-watered gardens of the rich, arcane towers etc) at what point does it cease really being a single location?

Big_G_NorthWales

Car crash with Sadiq Khan on Marr.

Wants peoples vote (second referendum) as Marr plays back his comprehensive rejection of a second vote last year

Just no integrity anymore

TheScreamingEagles

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Car crash with Sadiq Khan on Marr.

Wants peoples vote (second referendum) as Marr plays back his comprehensive rejection of a second vote last year

Just no integrity anymore

So just like Theresa May when she repeatedly said she wouldn’t call an early election.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, and look how well that went...

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, and look how well that went...

Well she won. Kinda.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, falling for an ambush is fair enough when you're up against someone like Hannibal.

When you're the one laying the trap, getting caught in it yourself is not an edifying spectacle.

PClipp

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Car crash with Sadiq Khan on Marr.

Wants peoples vote (second referendum) as Marr plays back his comprehensive rejection of a second vote last year
Just no integrity anymore

So just like Theresa May when she repeatedly said she wouldn’t call an early election.

The difference is that Khan now has a bit more experience of the real world...

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Clipp, the difference is he has the Labour nomination for the 2020 mayoralty contest, isn't it?

London loves the EU. Khan's volte face will go down will with his constituents.

rottenborough

Morning all,

No doubt this has been debated earlier before I surfaced, but Ruth Davidson now out at 50 on BF after Sunday Times front page.

Big_G_NorthWales

rottenborough said:

Morning all,

No doubt this has been debated earlier before I surfaced, but Ruth Davidson now out at 50 on BF after Sunday Times front page.

Ruth has done an immense service to politics by her admission of self harm and suicide issues and has widely been praised across the political divide

I have zero hope that she will change her mind and that is bad news for labour as her star status rises in Scotland eclipsing the two Englishmen leading labour, Leonard in Scotland and Corbyn

DavidL

brendan16 said:

CarlottaVance said:

One of Scotland’s most senior detectives has been assigned to lead the investigation into sex claims against Alex Salmond.

Detective Chief Superintendent Lesley Boal has been drafted in to spearhead the probe, with unprecedented senior resources at her disposal for such an inquiry. As the Head of Public Protection for Scotland, Boal is one of the most highly regarded officers on the force.

It emerged yesterday that Police Scotland had stepped up its operation, with a full blown investigation now underway. And the Sunday Mail has learned Boal will be given “every resource necessary”, with up to four detective chief inspectors at her disposal.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/alex-salmond-sex-claims-handled-13253766

'Every resource necessary' from the police - do alleged crime victims where the accused is not famous also get that?

Seems a lot of resource for an alleged grope in a bedroom however unpleasant it may have been for the women involved. I expect the drug dealers, burglars, muggers, local thugs who commit anti social behaviour on council estates and murderers in Scotland can sleep safe in their beds at a time of constrained police resources! Wouldn't her skills be better deployed?

Should the resources allocated to your reported crime be proportional to the fame of the person alleged to have committed it?

I agree. This is absolutely ridiculous and frankly looks a bit vindictive by the Scottish Government.

brendan16

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Caewyn Jones on Ridge on Sunday said that Chequers was a move in the right direction and Barry Gardiner on the same programme denied Emily Thornberry said labour would take down any deal negotiated by TM and labour would consider how the deal met its requirements

It comes back to my point over the last few days that when TM agrees the deal and it is announced jointly with TM, Tusk and Juncker, with endorsements from Merkel and Macron it will be very difficult for labour to take it down, just when the voter breathes a great sigh of relief

Agree; I’m certainly getting the feeling that IF we have a referendum it’ll be ‘Out with this deal’ or ‘Stay in:.

Its a big if as the Tories would implode if we held one - and Corbyn still doesn't want one. We also have to bear in mind that 27 other member states and the EU parliament also have to approve any deal - do they wait for us? The 'peoples vote' idea still seems to be very London centric - no doubt there will be another people's march coming soon in London again but nowhere else to promote it.

rottenborough

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

Morning all,

No doubt this has been debated earlier before I surfaced, but Ruth Davidson now out at 50 on BF after Sunday Times front page.

Ruth has done an immense service to politics by her admission of self harm and suicide issues and has widely been praised across the political divide

I have zero hope that she will change her mind and that is bad news for labour as her star status rises in Scotland eclipsing the two Englishmen leading labour, Leonard in Scotland and Corbyn

Bad news for Tory modernisers and moderates. She was the great future hope. Maybe not for next leader, but one after.

Never is a difficult concept in politics, but very difficult to see how she can now ever run for PM.

It is a bit odd as iirc we were being told only a few weeks ago that she was seriously thinking of jumping down to England and seeking a seat.

Theuniondivvie

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

Morning all,

No doubt this has been debated earlier before I surfaced, but Ruth Davidson now out at 50 on BF after Sunday Times front page.

Ruth has done an immense service to politics by her admission of self harm and suicide issues and has widely been praised across the political divide

I have zero hope that she will change her mind and that is bad news for labour as her star status rises in Scotland eclipsing the two Englishmen leading labour, Leonard in Scotland and Corbyn

History would suggest that Ruth is perfectly capable of changing her mind.

MarqueeMark

brendan16 said:

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Caewyn Jones on Ridge on Sunday said that Chequers was a move in the right direction and Barry Gardiner on the same programme denied Emily Thornberry said labour would take down any deal negotiated by TM and labour would consider how the deal met its requirements

It comes back to my point over the last few days that when TM agrees the deal and it is announced jointly with TM, Tusk and Juncker, with endorsements from Merkel and Macron it will be very difficult for labour to take it down, just when the voter breathes a great sigh of relief

Agree; I’m certainly getting the feeling that IF we have a referendum it’ll be ‘Out with this deal’ or ‘Stay in:.

Its a big if as the Tories would implode if we held one - and Corbyn still doesn't want one. We also have to bear in mind that 27 other member states and the EU parliament also have to approve any deal - do they wait for us? The 'peoples vote' idea still seems to be very London centric - no doubt there will be another people's march coming soon in London again but nowhere else to promote it.

Wake me up when Mansfield, Stoke and Hartlepool start marching in their tens of thousands demanding a Further Referendum - with Remain as an option......

Big_G_NorthWales

brendan16 said:

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Caewyn Jones on Ridge on Sunday said that Chequers was a move in the right direction and Barry Gardiner on the same programme denied Emily Thornberry said labour would take down any deal negotiated by TM and labour would consider how the deal met its requirements

It comes back to my point over the last few days that when TM agrees the deal and it is announced jointly with TM, Tusk and Juncker, with endorsements from Merkel and Macron it will be very difficult for labour to take it down, just when the voter breathes a great sigh of relief

Agree; I’m certainly getting the feeling that IF we have a referendum it’ll be ‘Out with this deal’ or ‘Stay in:.

Its a big if as the Tories would implode if we held one - and Corbyn still doesn't want one. We also have to bear in mind that 27 other member states and the EU parliament also have to approve any deal - do they wait for us? The 'peoples vote' idea still seems to be very London centric - no doubt there will be another people's march coming soon in London again but nowhere else to promote it.

The other question that is unknown - do all the 27 wants us to stay

Rexel56

One appreciates that May failed in terms of Parliamentary arimthmetic in the 2017 GE, but on reflection wasn’t it as much about pushing the next GE to 2022... as a counterfactual, where would we be on Brexit if we were now 18 months, and Brexit day a year away from the GE?

Gardenwalker

Big_G_NorthWales said:

brendan16 said:

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Caewyn Jones on Ridge on Sunday said that Chequers was a move in the right direction and Barry Gardiner on the same programme denied Emily Thornberry said labour would take down any deal negotiated by TM and labour would consider how the deal met its requirements

It comes back to my point over the last few days that when TM agrees the deal and it is announced jointly with TM, Tusk and Juncker, with endorsements from Merkel and Macron it will be very difficult for labour to take it down, just when the voter breathes a great sigh of relief

Agree; I’m certainly getting the feeling that IF we have a referendum it’ll be ‘Out with this deal’ or ‘Stay in:.

Its a big if as the Tories would implode if we held one - and Corbyn still doesn't want one. We also have to bear in mind that 27 other member states and the EU parliament also have to approve any deal - do they wait for us? The 'peoples vote' idea still seems to be very London centric - no doubt there will be another people's march coming soon in London again but nowhere else to promote it.

The other question that is unknown - do all the 27 wants us to stay

Of course they do.

Britain in the EU means a larger single market and a population of 65m who just love to buy imported goods.

And - something we rarely talk about - the EU without the U.K. has less standing globally and less coherence. It is a diminished force, can no longer legitimately represent all Europeans, and more likely to be weighed down by North-South tensions.

Brexit is lose-lose. Remain is win-win.

Big_G_NorthWales

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

brendan16 said:

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Caewyn Jones on Ridge on Sunday said that Chequers was a move in the right direction and Barry Gardiner on the same programme denied Emily Thornberry said labour would take down any deal negotiated by TM and labour would consider how the deal met its requirements

It comes back to my point over the last few days that when TM agrees the deal and it is announced jointly with TM, Tusk and Juncker, with endorsements from Merkel and Macron it will be very difficult for labour to take it down, just when the voter breathes a great sigh of relief

Agree; I’m certainly getting the feeling that IF we have a referendum it’ll be ‘Out with this deal’ or ‘Stay in:.

Its a big if as the Tories would implode if we held one - and Corbyn still doesn't want one. We also have to bear in mind that 27 other member states and the EU parliament also have to approve any deal - do they wait for us? The 'peoples vote' idea still seems to be very London centric - no doubt there will be another people's march coming soon in London again but nowhere else to promote it.

The other question that is unknown - do all the 27 wants us to stay

Of course they do.

Britain in the EU means a larger single market and a population of 65m who just love to buy imported goods.

And - something we rarely talk about - the EU without the U.K. has less standing globally and less coherence. It is a diminished force, can no longer legitimately represent all Europeans, and more likely to be weighed down by North-South tensions.

Brexit is lose-lose. Remain is win-win.

I think that may be challenged by many

Your last paragraph could have been penned by a Brexiteer

alex.

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

brendan16 said:

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Caewyn Jones on Ridge on Sunday said that Chequers was a move in the right direction and Barry Gardiner on the same programme denied Emily Thornberry said labour would take down any deal negotiated by TM and labour would consider how the deal met its requirements

It comes back to my point over the last few days that when TM agrees the deal and it is announced jointly with TM, Tusk and Juncker, with endorsements from Merkel and Macron it will be very difficult for labour to take it down, just when the voter breathes a great sigh of relief

Agree; I’m certainly getting the feeling that IF we have a referendum it’ll be ‘Out with this deal’ or ‘Stay in:.

Its a big if as the Tories would implode if we held one - and Corbyn still doesn't want one. We also have to bear in mind that 27 other member states and the EU parliament also have to approve any deal - do they wait for us? The 'peoples vote' idea still seems to be very London centric - no doubt there will be another people's march coming soon in London again but nowhere else to promote it.

The other question that is unknown - do all the 27 wants us to stay

Of course they do.

Britain in the EU means a larger single market and a population of 65m who just love to buy imported goods.

And - something we rarely talk about - the EU without the U.K. has less standing globally and less coherence. It is a diminished force, can no longer legitimately represent all Europeans, and more likely to be weighed down by North-South tensions.

Brexit is lose-lose. Remain is win-win.

In theory they may prefer us being in. The practical politicians who see the EU as (still) primarily about the economic benefits would. But divorce it for a moment from the economics. The clock can't be reset. The process has already cost billions in preparations and forced relocations.

The UK has declared that, instinctively, it is opposed to EU membership. Is it really to anybody's benefit that that is overlooked, probably when that feeling has barely changed? When we would likely be going back in with no rebate and many other opt outs removed. When the UK would have almost zero influence in future because a UK that has tried to leave and failed would have lost its ultimate trump card that meant they had to be listened to? And where, let's not forget, they could elect a government committed to triggering Article 50 again, on the back of a more planned process?

MarqueeMark

rottenborough said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

Morning all,

No doubt this has been debated earlier before I surfaced, but Ruth Davidson now out at 50 on BF after Sunday Times front page.

Ruth has done an immense service to politics by her admission of self harm and suicide issues and has widely been praised across the political divide

I have zero hope that she will change her mind and that is bad news for labour as her star status rises in Scotland eclipsing the two Englishmen leading labour, Leonard in Scotland and Corbyn

Bad news for Tory modernisers and moderates. She was the great future hope. Maybe not for next leader, but one after.

Never is a difficult concept in politics, but very difficult to see how she can now ever run for PM.

It is a bit odd as iirc we were being told only a few weeks ago that she was seriously thinking of jumping down to England and seeking a seat.

She would still make a great Health Secretary....

alex.

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

Morning all,

No doubt this has been debated earlier before I surfaced, but Ruth Davidson now out at 50 on BF after Sunday Times front page.

Ruth has done an immense service to politics by her admission of self harm and suicide issues and has widely been praised across the political divide

I have zero hope that she will change her mind and that is bad news for labour as her star status rises in Scotland eclipsing the two Englishmen leading labour, Leonard in Scotland and Corbyn

History would suggest that Ruth is perfectly capable of changing her mind.

If called upon to serve, and in the interests of my party and country over my own selfish preferences...

OblitusSumMe

Rexel56 said:

One appreciates that May failed in terms of Parliamentary arimthmetic in the 2017 GE, but on reflection wasn’t it as much about pushing the next GE to 2022... as a counterfactual, where would we be on Brexit if we were now 18 months, and Brexit day a year away from the GE?

Yes, and with the transition due to last until December 2020 the next GE would have had to occur before negotiations on the future trade deal could be completed.

Floater

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

brendan16 said:

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Caewyn Jones on Ridge on Sunday said that Chequers was a move in the right direction and Barry Gardiner on the same programme denied Emily Thornberry said labour would take down any deal negotiated by TM and labour would consider how the deal met its requirements

It comes back to my point over the last few days that when TM agrees the deal and it is announced jointly with TM, Tusk and Juncker, with endorsements from Merkel and Macron it will be very difficult for labour to take it down, just when the voter breathes a great sigh of relief

Agree; I’m certainly getting the feeling that IF we have a referendum it’ll be ‘Out with this deal’ or ‘Stay in:.

Its a big if as the Tories would implode if we held one - and Corbyn still doesn't want one. We also have to bear in mind that 27 other member states and the EU parliament also have to approve any deal - do they wait for us? The 'peoples vote' idea still seems to be very London centric - no doubt there will be another people's march coming soon in London again but nowhere else to promote it.

The other question that is unknown - do all the 27 wants us to stay

Of course they do.

Britain in the EU means a larger single market and a population of 65m who just love to buy imported goods.

And - something we rarely talk about - the EU without the U.K. has less standing globally and less coherence. It is a diminished force, can no longer legitimately represent all Europeans, and more likely to be weighed down by North-South tensions.

Brexit is lose-lose. Remain is win-win.

Strange then they have made so little effort to get us to stay.

Interestingly when I was in Italy last month several Italians bought up the Eu with me.

They are not happy bunnies.

More than one person basically aid they were waiting to see how we got on before deciding if they wanted to leave.

The EU knows this - no wonder they are acting as they are.

What a great club eh?

Get people in, strip away democracy and lock them in on the quiet and punish any dissenters.

Oh and run interest rates and general policy for the benefit of Germany - remind me how that worked out for Spain, Italy and Greece amongst others.

As for our politicians who lied to us and connived in tying us to that bloated mess they should be ashamed.

There is a reason why the remainers have project fear on 24/7 (laughable as it is) - no one can articulate a positive vision of EU membership.

Why is that?

OldKingCole

brendan16 said:

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Caewyn Jones on Ridge on Sunday said that Chequers was a move in the right direction and Barry Gardiner on the same programme denied Emily Thornberry said labour would take down any deal negotiated by TM and labour would consider how the deal met its requirements

It comes back to my point over the last few days that when TM agrees the deal and it is announced jointly with TM, Tusk and Juncker, with endorsements from Merkel and Macron it will be very difficult for labour to take it down, just when the voter breathes a great sigh of relief

Agree; I’m certainly getting the feeling that IF we have a referendum it’ll be ‘Out with this deal’ or ‘Stay in:.

Its a big if as the Tories would implode if we held one - and Corbyn still doesn't want one. We also have to bear in mind that 27 other member states and the EU parliament also have to approve any deal - do they wait for us? The 'peoples vote' idea still seems to be very London centric - no doubt there will be another people's march coming soon in London again but nowhere else to promote it.

To be fair, there have been Peoples Vote marches all over the country, so there seems to be some sort of a national call. How many of them were Londoners bussed in, I don’t know..... I haven’t been on one; my marching days are, I fear, done.
As far as the rest of the EU is concerned I get the feeling that none of the 27 want to see us leave, although their reasons may be different.

Whichever way it goes I fear there are going to be a lot of very unhappy people on one side or the other, and it will take a long time for the divisions to be healed!

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1041272448057057280

Scrapheap_as_was

"Russia is a normal capitalist country" - GG - discuss...

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1041264229976879104

Theuniondivvie

When Toby Young just isn't gamey enough for you.

https://twitter.com/lewisiwu/status/1041269983362330626

Morris_Dancer

Betting Post

F1: be a little while before the blog's up so here's something that caught my eye right away: Raikkonen to be winner without Vettel or Hamilton, 7.5 (8 with boost), fifth the odds top three for each way.

It's effectively a bet for him to be top 5 (or top 3 if Vettel and Hamilton both DNF). Given the reliability failings of Red Bull and the fact that the top three teams are a league above everyone else, it'd be quite unlucky to fail.

Morris_Dancer

F1: took me less time than I thought. Anyway, pre-race ramble is here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2018/09/singapore-pre-race-2018.html

archer101au

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Caewyn Jones on Ridge on Sunday said that Chequers was a move in the right direction and Barry Gardiner on the same programme denied Emily Thornberry said labour would take down any deal negotiated by TM and labour would consider how the deal met its requirements

It comes back to my point over the last few days that when TM agrees the deal and it is announced jointly with TM, Tusk and Juncker, with endorsements from Merkel and Macron it will be very difficult for labour to take it down, just when the voter breathes a great sigh of relief

You mean just like the voters breathed a huge sigh of relief when May announced that the Cabinet had approved Chequers? Or when Cameron announced his renegotiation?

Not going to happen. May cannot do a deal that will satisfy the voters and her attempts to spin will convince nobody. You may breathe a sigh of relief that May has sold out on Brexit but the majority of her party and her voters won’t see it that way. Which is why she will never get a deal approved. You can’t have the losers dictating terms to the winners. That is not democracy.

Alistair

DavidL said:

brendan16 said:

CarlottaVance said:

One of Scotland’s most senior detectives has been assigned to lead the investigation into sex claims against Alex Salmond.

Detective Chief Superintendent Lesley Boal has been drafted in to spearhead the probe, with unprecedented senior resources at her disposal for such an inquiry. As the Head of Public Protection for Scotland, Boal is one of the most highly regarded officers on the force.

It emerged yesterday that Police Scotland had stepped up its operation, with a full blown investigation now underway. And the Sunday Mail has learned Boal will be given “every resource necessary”, with up to four detective chief inspectors at her disposal.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/alex-salmond-sex-claims-handled-13253766

'Every resource necessary' from the police - do alleged crime victims where the accused is not famous also get that?

Seems a lot of resource for an alleged grope in a bedroom however unpleasant it may have been for the women involved. I expect the drug dealers, burglars, muggers, local thugs who commit anti social behaviour on council estates and murderers in Scotland can sleep safe in their beds at a time of constrained police resources! Wouldn't her skills be better deployed?

Should the resources allocated to your reported crime be proportional to the fame of the person alleged to have committed it?

I agree. This is absolutely ridiculous and frankly looks a bit vindictive by the Scottish Government.

Disagree. This removed any possibility of Salmond being able to play the "botched investigation" card. It's not vindictive, it's water tight.

bigjohnowls

"The only thing people in debt have in common other than bad money management, is an ability to blame anyone but themselves."

K Hopkins

NickPalmer

Charles said:

Would be unusual for a party leader to give up his seat!

Why are people so convinced Corbyn will retire? This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for the hard left to secure long term control of Labour.

If he is called to serve then he will serve the cause.

He will only go willingly once (a) the constitutional structure is changed (b) the parliamentary party has been reconstituted and (c) he can guarantee the movement can choose their own successor.

@SeanT once wrote about a bug that paralyses its prey. That’s a good metaphor here - it looks like Labour, but it’s no longer Labour as we knew it. The sooner that the good lefties such as @RochdalePioneers realised that then the sooner we can build a healthy left party. Frankly I’d donate to that organisation even though I’d have no desire to see it elected.

I agree with part of this - Jeremy won't have the slightest trouble in finding a seat, and he won't stand down for comfort and a quiet life: "if called then he will serve the cause" is exactly right. Foxy is right that the left doesn't have a clear successor, though - the inner circle is really just McDonnell and Abbott (neither of whom want the leadership on health grounds).

A reasonably successful new centre-left party would leave the Tories in power for at least another 10 years and quite possibly 20, while the opposition fought it out. That, rather than zealous loyalty or paralysis, is what is keeping moderates in the party. They would in my opinion lose an SDP vs Labour showdown, and even if they "won" (in terms of getting more votes) it would poison the well for a decade or more. They recognise that Jeremy won't carry on indefinitely and see a reasonable chance of liking his successor - it's worth noting that the anti-Momentum slate got about 40% of the votes.

felix

rottenborough said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

Morning all,

No doubt this has been debated earlier before I surfaced, but Ruth Davidson now out at 50 on BF after Sunday Times front page.

Ruth has done an immense service to politics by her admission of self harm and suicide issues and has widely been praised across the political divide

I have zero hope that she will change her mind and that is bad news for labour as her star status rises in Scotland eclipsing the two Englishmen leading labour, Leonard in Scotland and Corbyn

Bad news for Tory modernisers and moderates. She was the great future hope. Maybe not for next leader, but one after.

Never is a difficult concept in politics, but very difficult to see how she can now ever run for PM.

It is a bit odd as iirc we were being told only a few weeks ago that she was seriously thinking of jumping down to England and seeking a seat.

That tells you nothing about RD and a lot about crappy journalism.

brendan16

bigjohnowls said:

"The only thing people in debt have in common other than bad money management, is an ability to blame anyone but themselves."

K Hopkins

Or they get involved in expensive legal cases which they can't be certain they can win - because what ever the result the lawyers always do!

TheScreamingEagles

brendan16 said:

bigjohnowls said:

"The only thing people in debt have in common other than bad money management, is an ability to blame anyone but themselves."

K Hopkins

Or they get involved in expensive legal cases which they can't be certain they can win - because what ever the result the lawyers always do!

Bull.

https://twitter.com/BootstrapCook/status/1041007558457217024

OldKingCole

NickPalmer said:

Charles said:

Would be unusual for a party leader to give up his seat!

Why are people so convinced Corbyn will retire? This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for the hard left to secure long term control of Labour.

If he is called to serve then he will serve the cause.

He will only go willingly once (a) the constitutional structure is changed (b) the parliamentary party has been reconstituted and (c) he can guarantee the movement can choose their own successor.

@SeanT once wrote about a bug that paralyses its prey. That’s a good metaphor here - it looks like Labour, but it’s no longer Labour as we knew it. The sooner that the good lefties such as @RochdalePioneers realised that then the sooner we can build a healthy left party. Frankly I’d donate to that organisation even though I’d have no desire to see it elected.

I agree with part of this - Jeremy won't have the slightest trouble in finding a seat, and he won't stand down for comfort and a quiet life: "if called then he will serve the cause" is exactly right. Foxy is right that the left doesn't have a clear successor, though - the inner circle is really just McDonnell and Abbott (neither of whom want the leadership on health grounds).

A reasonably successful new centre-left party would leave the Tories in power for at least another 10 years and quite possibly 20, while the opposition fought it out. That, rather than zealous loyalty or paralysis, is what is keeping moderates in the party. They would in my opinion lose an SDP vs Labour showdown, and even if they "won" (in terms of getting more votes) it would poison the well for a decade or more. They recognise that Jeremy won't carry on indefinitely and see a reasonable chance of liking his successor - it's worth noting that the anti-Momentum slate got about 40% of the votes.

More or less what happened last time. And, if National Labour was ‘centrist’, the time before. and maybe what happened if, see above, the Liberal Unionists could be described as Centrists.

Barnesian

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Caewyn Jones on Ridge on Sunday said that Chequers was a move in the right direction and Barry Gardiner on the same programme denied Emily Thornberry said labour would take down any deal negotiated by TM and labour would consider how the deal met its requirements

It comes back to my point over the last few days that when TM agrees the deal and it is announced jointly with TM, Tusk and Juncker, with endorsements from Merkel and Macron it will be very difficult for labour to take it down, just when the voter breathes a great sigh of relief

You mean just like the voters breathed a huge sigh of relief when May announced that the Cabinet had approved Chequers? Or when Cameron announced his renegotiation?

Not going to happen. May cannot do a deal that will satisfy the voters and her attempts to spin will convince nobody. You may breathe a sigh of relief that May has sold out on Brexit but the majority of her party and her voters won’t see it that way. Which is why she will never get a deal approved. You can’t have the losers dictating terms to the winners. That is not democracy.

In years to come, when the young generation ask May "How could you let that happen?" her defence will be the Adolph Eichmann defence "I was only following orders"

Her orders were a slim majority in a dodgy advisory referendum and against her own judgement.

Her position is supine, immoral and totally lacking in leadership. History will judge her very harshly. Unless she surprises us in the end game.