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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s Oldies’ headache: Turnout levels reverting to GE2015

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited September 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s Oldies’ headache: Turnout levels reverting to GE2015 levels

Unlike Alastair Meeks on the previous thread I am far less certain that Labour, certainly under Corbyn, have a good chance of winning most seats, let alone getting a majority at the next election.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    1st to welcome the return of OGH!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    A distant second...
  • Second! Like Remain & Corbyn.....
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    1st to welcome the return of OGH! (Duplicate to be on the safe side).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Ishmael_Z said:

    1st to welcome the return of OGH! (Duplicate to be on the safe side).

    Ishmael I and IV? :D
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    As Mr Glenn (usually) says 'the trend is your friend':

    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1041753409752313856

    People are just tuning out all the "warnings" being given about Brexit (particularly a No Deal Brexit) - not entirely unreasonably, since some of the predictions from the referendum campaign that a Brexit vote itself, before the process started, would trigger an economic shock, turned out to be nonsense.

    The people endlessly banging on about a "people's vote" would be better off keeping their powder dry for now, and then, if a No Deal or Rock-Hard Brexit does trigger some of the dire consequences that have been talked out, then campaign for an immediate Rejoin referendum, before any long-lasting damage to the economy is done. IMO, people (including I suspect quite a lot of people who voted Remain last time) are not going to believe the forecasts of food shortages and planes being grounded etcetc. until they see them happen with their own eyes
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited September 2018
    On topic, isn't the data in the header now discredited? Didn't the British Election Study find that, contrary to earlier projections, elderly turnout actually increased in 2017, while youth turnout decreased?
  • Danny565 said:

    As Mr Glenn (usually) says 'the trend is your friend':

    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1041753409752313856

    IMO, people (including I suspect quite a lot of people who voted Remain last time) are not going to believe the forecasts of food shortages and planes being grounded etcetc. until they see them happen with their own eyes
    And then many of them will blame the EU.....making rejoining a tough sell
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited September 2018
    Ishmael_Z said:

    1st to welcome the return of OGH!

    Not quite back home after a 2000 mile trip by car from French Catalonia. We are at Calais waiting to be repatriated tomorrow.

    Big impression is that the Euro-Pound exchange rate has not been too bad. France more affordable than we expected.

    Even with Brexit we have made a big contribution to the well-being of French agricultural workers buying much of their produce - the sort that is easily transportable in liquid form
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    It also shows how difficult it is for Labour to squeeze more votes - they just aren't there to add.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    As Mr Glenn (usually) says 'the trend is your friend':

    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1041753409752313856

    IMO, people (including I suspect quite a lot of people who voted Remain last time) are not going to believe the forecasts of food shortages and planes being grounded etcetc. until they see them happen with their own eyes
    And then many of them will blame the EU.....making rejoining a tough sell
    That's where I completely disagree. If planes are grounded, and types of food run out, people aren't going to care about blame games, they are just going to want 'normal service resumed', and it won't be hard to figure out what could've disrupted that normal service.

    Whether those consequences actually occur in the first place is a very different question.
  • Clack handed :)
  • Danny565 said:

    The people endlessly banging on about a "people's vote" would be better off keeping their powder dry for now, and then, if a No Deal or Rock-Hard Brexit does trigger some of the dire consequences that have been talked out, then campaign for an immediate Rejoin referendum, before any long-lasting damage to the economy is done.

    Rejoining after an acrimonious Brexit will not be straightforward and that scenario isn't realistic as it would require a full new accession process. We can't expect the EU to go along with us playing the hokey-cokey.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841

    Ishmael_Z said:

    1st to welcome the return of OGH!

    Not quite back home after a 2000 mile trip by car from French Catalonia. We are at Calais waiting to be repatriated tomorrow.

    Big impression is that the Euro-Pound exchange rate has not been too bad. France more affordable than we expected.

    Even with Brexit we have made a big contribution to the well-being of French agricultural workers buying much of their produce - the sort that is easily transportable in liquid form
    Wine miles cheaper than in England. Food a bit more, am in Normandy myself atm
  • Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    As Mr Glenn (usually) says 'the trend is your friend':

    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1041753409752313856

    IMO, people (including I suspect quite a lot of people who voted Remain last time) are not going to believe the forecasts of food shortages and planes being grounded etcetc. until they see them happen with their own eyes
    And then many of them will blame the EU.....making rejoining a tough sell
    That's where I completely disagree. If planes are grounded, and types of food run out, people aren't going to care about blame games, they are just going to want 'normal service resumed', and it won't be hard to figure out what could've disrupted that normal service.

    Whether those consequences actually occur in the first place is a very different question.
    You also have a question of how long those consequences occur for. If planes are grounded for a few days but then its resolved people will view it as a problem in the past and we've moved past it.

    If planes are grounded indefinitely . . . then people would want normal service but that's not going to happen.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    Danny565 said:

    The people endlessly banging on about a "people's vote" would be better off keeping their powder dry for now, and then, if a No Deal or Rock-Hard Brexit does trigger some of the dire consequences that have been talked out, then campaign for an immediate Rejoin referendum, before any long-lasting damage to the economy is done.

    Rejoining after an acrimonious Brexit will not be straightforward and that scenario isn't realistic as it would require a full new accession process. We can't expect the EU to go along with us playing the hokey-cokey.
    EEA though. ...
  • Except the breakthrough that was agreed in December is not the backstop that Barnier is claiming now. What Barnier is claiming now was vetoed in December by the DUP and not the agreement, its the breakthrough he wanted then but not the one he got then.

    He's just acting as if the DUP veto in December and subsequent changes to the agreement never happened now and people in the UK are letting him get away with it.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    1st to welcome the return of OGH!

    Welcome back OGH - hope you had an enjoyable time!
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Ishmael_Z said:

    1st to welcome the return of OGH!

    Not quite back home after a 2000 mile trip by car from French Catalonia. We are at Calais waiting to be repatriated tomorrow.

    Big impression is that the Euro-Pound exchange rate has not been too bad. France more affordable than we expected.

    Even with Brexit we have made a big contribution to the well-being of French agricultural workers buying much of their produce - the sort that is easily transportable in liquid form
    Taking one for the team there Mike.

    Very wise.
  • LordOfReasonLordOfReason Posts: 457
    edited September 2018

    Ishmael_Z said:

    1st to welcome the return of OGH!

    Not quite back home after a 2000 mile trip by car from French Catalonia. We are at Calais waiting to be repatriated tomorrow.

    Big impression is that the Euro-Pound exchange rate has not been too bad. France more affordable than we expected.

    Even with Brexit we have made a big contribution to the well-being of French agricultural workers buying much of their produce - the sort that is easily transportable in liquid form
    Unfortunately a strange bit of science occurs, when wine is taken from under the blue skies of its birth, across the English Channel, to a cloudier climate. It never tastes the same as it did on holiday.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    1st to welcome the return of OGH!

    Welcome back OGH - hope you had an enjoyable time!
    Does this mean nothing will happen in politics for next few weeks? :lol:
  • A pack of jokers all around.

    They can speak again when they have come up with a plan for Brexit.
  • Wake me up if she says anything vaguely interesting...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Wake me up if she says anything vaguely interesting...
    I'm interested that pictures of the Cabinet at Chequers table show what look like paper nameplates in front of some of them - do they not even know who each other are? It would explain why it took so long to come to an agreement.
  • Wake me up if she says anything vaguely interesting...
    It feels like a less funny remake of The Office
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited September 2018

    Wake me up if she says anything vaguely interesting...
    It feels like a less funny remake of The Office
    I believe that is called the US Office...any sign of signing vegetables? Or is that just Jezza that does that?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Highlight so far is Dominic Raab doing a sassy finger-wag with the words "I've got no time for that drama".
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited September 2018
    Danny565 said:

    Highlight so far is Dominic Raab doing a sassy finger-wag with the words "I've got no time for that drama".

    image
  • Danny565 said:

    Highlight so far is Dominic Raab doing a sassy finger-wag with the words "I've got no time for that drama".

    Brexiteer eye for the Remain guy?
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    1st to welcome the return of OGH!

    Not quite back home after a 2000 mile trip by car from French Catalonia. We are at Calais waiting to be repatriated tomorrow.

    Big impression is that the Euro-Pound exchange rate has not been too bad. France more affordable than we expected.

    Even with Brexit we have made a big contribution to the well-being of French agricultural workers buying much of their produce - the sort that is easily transportable in liquid form
    Unfortunately a strange bit of science occurs, when wine is taken from under the blue skies of its birth, across the English Channel, to a cloudier climate. It never tastes the same as it did on holiday.
    I would be willing to undertake research into this very interesting and vital area of chemistry.
  • UBS 'rogue trader' gets last-minute reprieve from deportation

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/17/uk-deportation-ubs-kweku-adoboli-ghana
  • To win in GE2022 the Conservatives should be ‘steady as she goes’ with the oldies, whilst pitching an attractive offer to 35-50 year olds.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    Except the breakthrough that was agreed in December is not the backstop that Barnier is claiming now. What Barnier is claiming now was vetoed in December by the DUP and not the agreement, its the breakthrough he wanted then but not the one he got then.

    He's just acting as if the DUP veto in December and subsequent changes to the agreement never happened now and people in the UK are letting him get away with it.
    One of the problems of late night agreements is that there are often different understandings of what was agreed.

    The flaws in the plan were spotted here immediately of course!
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,049

    To win in GE2022 the Conservatives should be ‘steady as she goes’ with the oldies, whilst pitching an attractive offer to 35-50 year olds.

    Do you think the Tories deserve to win 2022?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Doesn't seem a very edifying program to be honest - May's plan split the Cabinet, many in her party hate it, she insists it is the only way, the EU don't agree with it but will try to fudge something that looks like they might, businesses are predicting the apocalypse

    The most illuminating thing is the claim there are still Brexit true believers in the Cabinet. And why is Gove the only member of that Cabinet included besides Raab who is willing or chosen to try to bolster the case in the program?

    Keir Starmer talking about how no deal cannot be allowed to happen. But then says he would be willing to risk that, since a potential no deal is the only situation where a potential referendum or (not mentioned)a new GE might emerge. He doesn't want no deal, but that's not the same as ensuring it cannot be allowed to happen, if that requires him to back the government, since there's nothing that could make him vote for any May deal.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    edited September 2018

    To win in GE2022 the Conservatives should be ‘steady as she goes’ with the oldies, whilst pitching an attractive offer to 35-50 year olds.

    I thought the idea was for Governments to stand on their record and it's not unreasonable for me, as a voter, to ask what the Conservatives have achieved since 2010.

    Glen O'Hara was fairly scatching this morning and for all the "attractive offer" nonsense it's going to take more than that to convince those of us whose economic prospects have stagnated in the past decade or so to put our X in the blue team box again.

    In any case, I thought the message to the "oldies" was going to be "vote Conservative or Jeremy Corbyn will eat your grandchildren."
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited September 2018
    Foxy said:

    Danny565 said:

    The people endlessly banging on about a "people's vote" would be better off keeping their powder dry for now, and then, if a No Deal or Rock-Hard Brexit does trigger some of the dire consequences that have been talked out, then campaign for an immediate Rejoin referendum, before any long-lasting damage to the economy is done.

    Rejoining after an acrimonious Brexit will not be straightforward and that scenario isn't realistic as it would require a full new accession process. We can't expect the EU to go along with us playing the hokey-cokey.
    EEA though. ...
    Apparently our EEA treaty was superceded by our EU one. When we Brexit, we are out of both.

    There is no EEA option for the UK. We have to apply to EFTA first.
  • stodge said:

    To win in GE2022 the Conservatives should be ‘steady as she goes’ with the oldies, whilst pitching an attractive offer to 35-50 year olds.

    I thought the idea was for Governments to stand on their record and it's not unreasonable for me, as a voter, to ask what the Conservatives have achieved since 2010.

    Glen O'Hara was fairly scatching this morning and for all the "attractive offer" nonsense it's going to take more than that to convince those of us whose economic prospects have stagnated in the past decade or so to put our X in the blue team box again.
    Have you ever voted Conservative?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    edited September 2018

    stodge said:

    To win in GE2022 the Conservatives should be ‘steady as she goes’ with the oldies, whilst pitching an attractive offer to 35-50 year olds.

    I thought the idea was for Governments to stand on their record and it's not unreasonable for me, as a voter, to ask what the Conservatives have achieved since 2010.

    Glen O'Hara was fairly scatching this morning and for all the "attractive offer" nonsense it's going to take more than that to convince those of us whose economic prospects have stagnated in the past decade or so to put our X in the blue team box again.
    Have you ever voted Conservative?
    No and I've never voted Labour either. Doesn't mean I don't have the right to scrutinise or ask questions or challenge the Government's performance.
  • tyson said:

    To win in GE2022 the Conservatives should be ‘steady as she goes’ with the oldies, whilst pitching an attractive offer to 35-50 year olds.

    Do you think the Tories deserve to win 2022?
    That’s not the question, I was commenting on the electoral strategy I’d recommend but, for what it’s worth, yes: despite the Brexit dramas the country is in a much better state than it was in 2010 and I think the Conservatives would build on that best in the 2020s with a balanced approach to public spending that grew wealth and prosperity whilst investing sustainably in public services.

    I don’t expect you to agree.
  • stodge said:

    stodge said:

    To win in GE2022 the Conservatives should be ‘steady as she goes’ with the oldies, whilst pitching an attractive offer to 35-50 year olds.

    I thought the idea was for Governments to stand on their record and it's not unreasonable for me, as a voter, to ask what the Conservatives have achieved since 2010.

    Glen O'Hara was fairly scatching this morning and for all the "attractive offer" nonsense it's going to take more than that to convince those of us whose economic prospects have stagnated in the past decade or so to put our X in the blue team box again.
    Have you ever voted Conservative?
    No and I've never voted Labour either. Doesn't mean I don't have the right to scrutinise or ask questions or challenge the Government's performance.
    Of course not, but you referred to putting an X in the blue team box in the second team plural.

    I wondered because you seem to have a hair-trigger temper whenever it comes to anyone mentioning the Conservative Government’s record in anything like a positive light, so I wondered if it had badly let you down in the past when you’d placed your trust in it.
  • UBS 'rogue trader' gets last-minute reprieve from deportation

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/17/uk-deportation-ubs-kweku-adoboli-ghana

    It is not a reprieve - more a temporary stay of execution.

    He seriously broke the law. He has not legal status within the UK. Why should the courts look at this yet again? Nothing to do with the colour of his skin or his country of origin - and everything to do with applying the law.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited September 2018
    stodge said:

    To win in GE2022 the Conservatives should be ‘steady as she goes’ with the oldies, whilst pitching an attractive offer to 35-50 year olds.

    I thought the idea was for Governments to stand on their record and it's not unreasonable for me, as a voter, to ask what the Conservatives have achieved since 2010.

    Glen O'Hara was fairly scatching this morning and for all the "attractive offer" nonsense it's going to take more than that to convince those of us whose economic prospects have stagnated in the past decade or so to put our X in the blue team box again.

    In any case, I thought the message to the "oldies" was going to be "vote Conservative or Jeremy Corbyn will eat your grandchildren."
    Unemployment is half the level Labour left in 2010 and the deficit has fallen whatever you think if Brexit.

    However it is Labour 1997 to 2005 and Tory 2010 to 2017 and LD 2010, Tory 2015 and 2017 and UKIP 2015 and Tory 2017 and Tory 2010 and 2015 and Labour or LD 2017 voters who will decide if the Tories get their second 4th term in office in a century. If you do not fall into those categories you are not likely to be of much concern to party strategists
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,049

    tyson said:

    To win in GE2022 the Conservatives should be ‘steady as she goes’ with the oldies, whilst pitching an attractive offer to 35-50 year olds.

    Do you think the Tories deserve to win 2022?
    That’s not the question, I was commenting on the electoral strategy I’d recommend but, for what it’s worth, yes: despite the Brexit dramas the country is in a much better state than it was in 2010 and I think the Conservatives would build on that best in the 2020s with a balanced approach to public spending that grew wealth and prosperity whilst investing sustainably in public services.

    I don’t expect you to agree.
    You answered my question differently....do you think the way the Tories have governed and behaved these last two years..they deserve to be reelected? Forget the ideological stuff..just concentrate on the management.

    I can remember the Brown years, and the Major years, and now we have the May years...hopelessly divided parties led by weak leaders presiding on infighting and intrigue...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557

    Ishmael_Z said:

    1st to welcome the return of OGH!

    Not quite back home after a 2000 mile trip by car from French Catalonia. We are at Calais waiting to be repatriated tomorrow.

    Big impression is that the Euro-Pound exchange rate has not been too bad. France more affordable than we expected.

    Even with Brexit we have made a big contribution to the well-being of French agricultural workers buying much of their produce - the sort that is easily transportable in liquid form
    Unfortunately a strange bit of science occurs, when wine is taken from under the blue skies of its birth, across the English Channel, to a cloudier climate. It never tastes the same as it did on holiday.
    I would be willing to undertake research into this very interesting and vital area of chemistry.
    I’m unconvinced by that theory.
    As a control experiment (after all, wines can vary dramatically from bottle to bottle), I conducted a similar experiment with the industrially consistent Pernod.

    A drink which tastes marvellous in France, and dreadful in England actually proved entirely palatable at home this summer. I concluded it’s all a matter of the sun shining long enough.
    A minor, but significant consolation of global warming.
  • tyson said:

    tyson said:

    To win in GE2022 the Conservatives should be ‘steady as she goes’ with the oldies, whilst pitching an attractive offer to 35-50 year olds.

    Do you think the Tories deserve to win 2022?
    That’s not the question, I was commenting on the electoral strategy I’d recommend but, for what it’s worth, yes: despite the Brexit dramas the country is in a much better state than it was in 2010 and I think the Conservatives would build on that best in the 2020s with a balanced approach to public spending that grew wealth and prosperity whilst investing sustainably in public services.

    I don’t expect you to agree.
    You answered my question differently....do you think the way the Tories have governed and behaved these last two years..they deserve to be reelected? Forget the ideological stuff..just concentrate on the management.

    I can remember the Brown years, and the Major years, and now we have the May years...hopelessly divided parties led by weak leaders presiding on infighting and intrigue...
    Your last sentence could just as easily refer to the Corbyn years.
  • Nigelb said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    1st to welcome the return of OGH!

    Not quite back home after a 2000 mile trip by car from French Catalonia. We are at Calais waiting to be repatriated tomorrow.

    Big impression is that the Euro-Pound exchange rate has not been too bad. France more affordable than we expected.

    Even with Brexit we have made a big contribution to the well-being of French agricultural workers buying much of their produce - the sort that is easily transportable in liquid form
    Unfortunately a strange bit of science occurs, when wine is taken from under the blue skies of its birth, across the English Channel, to a cloudier climate. It never tastes the same as it did on holiday.
    I would be willing to undertake research into this very interesting and vital area of chemistry.
    I’m unconvinced by that theory.
    As a control experiment (after all, wines can vary dramatically from bottle to bottle), I conducted a similar experiment with the industrially consistent Pernod.

    A drink which tastes marvellous in France, and dreadful in England actually proved entirely palatable at home this summer. I concluded it’s all a matter of the sun shining long enough.
    A minor, but significant consolation of global warming.
    We'll just have to perform multiple strands of research, perhaps with someone trying it with methanol for blind tests ...
  • tyson said:

    tyson said:

    To win in GE2022 the Conservatives should be ‘steady as she goes’ with the oldies, whilst pitching an attractive offer to 35-50 year olds.

    Do you think the Tories deserve to win 2022?
    That’s not the question, I was commenting on the electoral strategy I’d recommend but, for what it’s worth, yes: despite the Brexit dramas the country is in a much better state than it was in 2010 and I think the Conservatives would build on that best in the 2020s with a balanced approach to public spending that grew wealth and prosperity whilst investing sustainably in public services.

    I don’t expect you to agree.
    You answered my question differently....do you think the way the Tories have governed and behaved these last two years..they deserve to be reelected? Forget the ideological stuff..just concentrate on the management.

    I can remember the Brown years, and the Major years, and now we have the May years...hopelessly divided parties led by weak leaders presiding on infighting and intrigue...
    Yes.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741


    Of course not, but you referred to putting an X in the blue team box in the second team plural.

    I wondered because you seem to have a hair-trigger temper whenever it comes to anyone mentioning the Conservative Government’s record in anything like a positive light, so I wondered if it had badly let you down in the past when you’d placed your trust in it.

    Let's try it the other way, do you think the years since 2010 have been good ones for this country and all its citizens? Yes, some have done well, you personally may have done well, good luck to you.

    I see a lot that isn't right or positive whether it be well-run local authorities being forced to cut services because this Government is unable or unwilling to help them. I also see too many people, especially in London, struggling to survive, people who have to work long hours often in more than one job to pay for the basics of life.

    Do I think Labour could do any better? No and I criticised them on here aplenty in the Blair and Brown years.

    I'm not prepared to give any Government a free pass - I have a right to criticise, to question and to offer alternatives, that's called democracy last time I looked.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    stodge said:


    Of course not, but you referred to putting an X in the blue team box in the second team plural.

    I wondered because you seem to have a hair-trigger temper whenever it comes to anyone mentioning the Conservative Government’s record in anything like a positive light, so I wondered if it had badly let you down in the past when you’d placed your trust in it.

    Let's try it the other way, do you think the years since 2010 have been good ones for this country and all its citizens? Yes, some have done well, you personally may have done well, good luck to you.

    I see a lot that isn't right or positive whether it be well-run local authorities being forced to cut services because this Government is unable or unwilling to help them. I also see too many people, especially in London, struggling to survive, people who have to work long hours often in more than one job to pay for the basics of life.

    Do I think Labour could do any better? No and I criticised them on here aplenty in the Blair and Brown years.

    I'm not prepared to give any Government a free pass - I have a right to criticise, to question and to offer alternatives, that's called democracy last time I looked.
    I think actually people aren’t dog too badly. Public services are pretty good, child poverty down, adult poverty down, pensioner poverty all but disappearing. The struggle has been to reduce cyclical spending without massive cuts. This has come about by a six year long public sector freeze. Predictably though is has resulted in a struggle to recruit and retain skilled public service staff. Did I also mention Full Employment?
  • tyson said:

    tyson said:

    To win in GE2022 the Conservatives should be ‘steady as she goes’ with the oldies, whilst pitching an attractive offer to 35-50 year olds.

    Do you think the Tories deserve to win 2022?
    That’s not the question, I was commenting on the electoral strategy I’d recommend but, for what it’s worth, yes: despite the Brexit dramas the country is in a much better state than it was in 2010 and I think the Conservatives would build on that best in the 2020s with a balanced approach to public spending that grew wealth and prosperity whilst investing sustainably in public services.

    I don’t expect you to agree.
    You answered my question differently....do you think the way the Tories have governed and behaved these last two years..they deserve to be reelected? Forget the ideological stuff..just concentrate on the management.

    I can remember the Brown years, and the Major years, and now we have the May years...hopelessly divided parties led by weak leaders presiding on infighting and intrigue...
    For an analogy British politics is rather like the England vs Columbia WC game.

    England didn't deserve to win but Columbia deserved to lose.

    Put the political party to the football team as you chose.

    By contrast in the Belgium vs Japan game Belgium deserved to win but Japan didn't deserve to lose.

    Sadly not much chance of British politics being like that in the foreseeable future.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    HYUFD said:

    <
    Unemployment is half the level Labour left in 2010 and the deficit has fallen whatever you think if Brexit.

    Part of the fall in unemployment has been down to changes which make it harder to register as unemployed and remain unemployed.

    Putting that to one side, it isn't just about people having jobs - we can employ people to dig holes and fill them in again. The issue is productivity - there are more of us doing about the same - what about improving in business processes and investing in technology? It may be cheaper to employ people when there is an unending supply of cheap labour but that isn't what leads to real economic growth and progress.

    As for the deficit, fantastic, yet when well-run Conservative councils such as Somerset, Surrey and East Sussex are staring into the financial abyss and being forced to cut services to the bone, why should I cheer a fall in the deficit? Why isn't Hammond throwing millions at Councils to help them instead of sub-contracting austerity?
  • stodge said:


    Of course not, but you referred to putting an X in the blue team box in the second team plural.

    I wondered because you seem to have a hair-trigger temper whenever it comes to anyone mentioning the Conservative Government’s record in anything like a positive light, so I wondered if it had badly let you down in the past when you’d placed your trust in it.

    Let's try it the other way, do you think the years since 2010 have been good ones for this country and all its citizens? Yes, some have done well, you personally may have done well, good luck to you.

    I see a lot that isn't right or positive whether it be well-run local authorities being forced to cut services because this Government is unable or unwilling to help them. I also see too many people, especially in London, struggling to survive, people who have to work long hours often in more than one job to pay for the basics of life.

    Do I think Labour could do any better? No and I criticised them on here aplenty in the Blair and Brown years.

    I'm not prepared to give any Government a free pass - I have a right to criticise, to question and to offer alternatives, that's called democracy last time I looked.
    You are arguing against a straw man.

    I’ve not asked you to give the Government a free pass, nor would I ever do so.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557

    Nigelb said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    1st to welcome the return of OGH!

    Not quite back home after a 2000 mile trip by car from French Catalonia. We are at Calais waiting to be repatriated tomorrow.

    Big impression is that the Euro-Pound exchange rate has not been too bad. France more affordable than we expected.

    Even with Brexit we have made a big contribution to the well-being of French agricultural workers buying much of their produce - the sort that is easily transportable in liquid form
    Unfortunately a strange bit of science occurs, when wine is taken from under the blue skies of its birth, across the English Channel, to a cloudier climate. It never tastes the same as it did on holiday.
    I would be willing to undertake research into this very interesting and vital area of chemistry.
    I’m unconvinced by that theory.
    As a control experiment (after all, wines can vary dramatically from bottle to bottle), I conducted a similar experiment with the industrially consistent Pernod.

    A drink which tastes marvellous in France, and dreadful in England actually proved entirely palatable at home this summer. I concluded it’s all a matter of the sun shining long enough.
    A minor, but significant consolation of global warming.
    We'll just have to perform multiple strands of research, perhaps with someone trying it with methanol for blind tests ...
    Come on, Pernod isn’t that bad...
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,049

    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    To win in GE2022 the Conservatives should be ‘steady as she goes’ with the oldies, whilst pitching an attractive offer to 35-50 year olds.

    Do you think the Tories deserve to win 2022?
    That’s not the question, I was commenting on the electoral strategy I’d recommend but, for what it’s worth, yes: despite the Brexit dramas the country is in a much better state than it was in 2010 and I think the Conservatives would build on that best in the 2020s with a balanced approach to public spending that grew wealth and prosperity whilst investing sustainably in public services.

    I don’t expect you to agree.
    You answered my question differently....do you think the way the Tories have governed and behaved these last two years..they deserve to be reelected? Forget the ideological stuff..just concentrate on the management.

    I can remember the Brown years, and the Major years, and now we have the May years...hopelessly divided parties led by weak leaders presiding on infighting and intrigue...
    Yes.
    So, it appears you are an ideological bonehead with zilch capacity to think laterally...so I'm not going to spend any more time on this debate....


  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    notme said:

    stodge said:


    Of course not, but you referred to putting an X in the blue team box in the second team plural.

    I wondered because you seem to have a hair-trigger temper whenever it comes to anyone mentioning the Conservative Government’s record in anything like a positive light, so I wondered if it had badly let you down in the past when you’d placed your trust in it.

    Let's try it the other way, do you think the years since 2010 have been good ones for this country and all its citizens? Yes, some have done well, you personally may have done well, good luck to you.

    I see a lot that isn't right or positive whether it be well-run local authorities being forced to cut services because this Government is unable or unwilling to help them. I also see too many people, especially in London, struggling to survive, people who have to work long hours often in more than one job to pay for the basics of life.

    Do I think Labour could do any better? No and I criticised them on here aplenty in the Blair and Brown years.

    I'm not prepared to give any Government a free pass - I have a right to criticise, to question and to offer alternatives, that's called democracy last time I looked.
    I think actually people aren’t dog too badly. Public services are pretty good, child poverty down, adult poverty down, pensioner poverty all but disappearing. The struggle has been to reduce cyclical spending without massive cuts. This has come about by a six year long public sector freeze. Predictably though is has resulted in a struggle to recruit and retain skilled public service staff. Did I also mention Full Employment?
    I think that whether you live in the SE of England, or a similar microgeography affects perceptions. For much of the remainder of the country it has been a decade of stagnation at best, with continued erosion of wages. London and the SE struggle with some of the problems of wealth, such as the cost of housing, but for much of the rest that is a taste of honey that they will never get. Just grinding austerity and the feeling of being left behind. Brexit is a symptom, not the cure of such ills.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Scott_P said:
    Nice to see the second most important person in Govt supporting their boss.
  • Foxy said:

    notme said:

    stodge said:


    Of course not, but you referred to putting an X in the blue team box in the second team plural.

    I wondered because you seem to have a hair-trigger temper whenever it comes to anyone mentioning the Conservative Government’s record in anything like a positive light, so I wondered if it had badly let you down in the past when you’d placed your trust in it.

    Let's try it the other way, do you think the years since 2010 have been good ones for this country and all its citizens? Yes, some have done well, you personally may have done well, good luck to you.

    I see a lot that isn't right or positive whether it be well-run local authorities being forced to cut services because this Government is unable or unwilling to help them. I also see too many people, especially in London, struggling to survive, people who have to work long hours often in more than one job to pay for the basics of life.

    Do I think Labour could do any better? No and I criticised them on here aplenty in the Blair and Brown years.

    I'm not prepared to give any Government a free pass - I have a right to criticise, to question and to offer alternatives, that's called democracy last time I looked.
    I think actually people aren’t dog too badly. Public services are pretty good, child poverty down, adult poverty down, pensioner poverty all but disappearing. The struggle has been to reduce cyclical spending without massive cuts. This has come about by a six year long public sector freeze. Predictably though is has resulted in a struggle to recruit and retain skilled public service staff. Did I also mention Full Employment?
    I think that whether you live in the SE of England, or a similar microgeography affects perceptions. For much of the remainder of the country it has been a decade of stagnation at best, with continued erosion of wages. London and the SE struggle with some of the problems of wealth, such as the cost of housing, but for much of the rest that is a taste of honey that they will never get. Just grinding austerity and the feeling of being left behind. Brexit is a symptom, not the cure of such ills.
    I'd say it is much more mixed up.

    There's a lot of poverty in London and parts of the SE with collapsing levels of home ownership and what I term middle class regression.

    But equally lots of people are doing very nicely in what are thought of as deprived areas.

    In many ways its easier to be rich in a poor town than in a rich town and likewise easier to be poor in a rich town than a poor town.

    Relative contrasts matter both financially and psychologically.
  • tyson said:

    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    To win in GE2022 the Conservatives should be ‘steady as she goes’ with the oldies, whilst pitching an attractive offer to 35-50 year olds.

    Do you think the Tories deserve to win 2022?
    That’s not the question, I was commenting on the electoral strategy I’d recommend but, for what it’s worth, yes: despite the Brexit dramas the country is in a much better state than it was in 2010 and I think the Conservatives would build on that best in the 2020s with a balanced approach to public spending that grew wealth and prosperity whilst investing sustainably in public services.

    I don’t expect you to agree.
    You answered my question differently....do you think the way the Tories have governed and behaved these last two years..they deserve to be reelected? Forget the ideological stuff..just concentrate on the management.

    I can remember the Brown years, and the Major years, and now we have the May years...hopelessly divided parties led by weak leaders presiding on infighting and intrigue...
    Yes.
    So, it appears you are an ideological bonehead with zilch capacity to think laterally...so I'm not going to spend any more time on this debate....


    Nope, I just disagree with you and don’t share your prejudices.

    Your personal insults and flounce off show you don’t actually have any arguments.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited September 2018

    FPT..
    What will people say if we strike a fairly comprehensive deal with the EU, something that could be represented as BINO, and a recession follows (possibly by year end 2019) ?

    Which I think is actually think is a likely scenario.

    An unstable "half in/half out" situation that people think could collapse at any moment will be worse in the long term than a so called "no deal" IMO.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741


    You are arguing against a straw man.

    I’ve not asked you to give the Government a free pass, nor would I ever do so.

    No, what I'm arguing against is uncritical adulation, the lack of any capacity for criticising the Party you support and acknowledging other parties may have something valid to say.

    I will cheerfully concede you have done so in the past - others haven't. I've been openly critical of the LDs on many occasions and will continue to be so as I would be of Labour, Greens, the SNP, PC, UKIP, DUP etc, et
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,049

    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    To win in GE2022 the Conservatives should be ‘steady as she goes’ with the oldies, whilst pitching an attractive offer to 35-50 year olds.

    Do you think the Tories deserve to win 2022?
    That’s not the question, I was commenting on the electoral strategy I’d recommend but, for what it’s worth, yes: despite the Brexit dramas the country is in a much better state than it was in 2010 and I think the Conservatives would build on that best in the 2020s with a balanced approach to public spending that grew wealth and prosperity whilst investing sustainably in public services.

    I don’t expect you to agree.
    You answered my question differently....do you think the way the Tories have governed and behaved these last two years..they deserve to be reelected? Forget the ideological stuff..just concentrate on the management.

    I can remember the Brown years, and the Major years, and now we have the May years...hopelessly divided parties led by weak leaders presiding on infighting and intrigue...
    Yes.
    So, it appears you are an ideological bonehead with zilch capacity to think laterally...so I'm not going to spend any more time on this debate....


    Nope, I just disagree with you and don’t share your prejudices.

    Your personal insults and flounce off show you don’t actually have any arguments.
    I supported Man City through the Alan Ball years....so I know tribal loyalty......but comrade, you can jump on a high horse quicker than the proverbial rat up the drainpipe....
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Foxy said:

    notme said:

    stodge said:


    Of course not, but you referred to putting an X in the blue team box in the second team plural.

    I wondered because you seem to have a hair-trigger temper whenever it comes to anyone mentioning the Conservative Government’s record in anything like a positive light, so I wondered if it had badly let you down in the past when you’d placed your trust in it.

    Let's try it the other way, do you think the years since 2010 have been good ones for this country and all its citizens? Yes, some have done well, you personally may have done well, good luck to you.

    I see a lot that isn't right or positive whether it be well-run local authorities being forced to cut services because this Government is unable or unwilling to help them. I also see too many people, especially in London, struggling to survive, people who have to work long hours often in more than one job to pay for the basics of life.

    Do I think Labour could do any better? No and I criticised them on here aplenty in the Blair and Brown years.

    I'm not prepared to give any Government a free pass - I have a right to criticise, to question and to offer alternatives, that's called democracy last time I looked.
    I think actually people aren’t dog too badly. Public services are pretty good, child poverty down, adult poverty down, pensioner poverty all but disappearing. The struggle has been to reduce cyclical spending without massive cuts. This has come about by a six year long public sector freeze. Predictably though is has resulted in a struggle to recruit and retain skilled public service staff. Did I also mention Full Employment?
    I think that whether you live in the SE of England, or a similar microgeography affects perceptions. For much of the remainder of the country it has been a decade of stagnation at best, with continued erosion of wages. London and the SE struggle with some of the problems of wealth, such as the cost of housing, but for much of the rest that is a taste of honey that they will never get. Just grinding austerity and the feeling of being left behind. Brexit is a symptom, not the cure of such ills.
    Grinding austerity? You are having a laugh. George Osborne made a virtue out of it, but the reality was only the police and local government suffered any. The nhs continued to have its mouth shoved with gold, to the detriment of everything else. Austerity just meant getting spending back the percentages before the crash and before the ‘temporary stimulus’.

    Grinding austerity is a tag line foe some ken loach nonsense. Not someone who should know better.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    Foxy said:

    notme said:

    stodge said:


    Of course not, but you referred to putting an X in the blue team box in the second team plural.

    I wondered because you seem to have a hair-trigger temper whenever it comes to anyone mentioning the Conservative Government’s record in anything like a positive light, so I wondered if it had badly let you down in the past when you’d placed your trust in it.

    Let's try it the other way, do you think the years since 2010 have been good ones for this country and all its citizens? Yes, some have done well, you personally may have done well, good luck to you.

    I see a lot that isn't right or positive whether it be well-run local authorities being forced to cut services because this Government is unable or unwilling to help them. I also see too many people, especially in London, struggling to survive, people who have to work long hours often in more than one job to pay for the basics of life.

    Do I think Labour could do any better? No and I criticised them on here aplenty in the Blair and Brown years.

    I'm not prepared to give any Government a free pass - I have a right to criticise, to question and to offer alternatives, that's called democracy last time I looked.
    I think that whether you live in the SE of England, or a similar microgeography affects perceptions. For much of the remainder of the country it has been a decade of stagnation at best, with continued erosion of wages. London and the SE struggle with some of the problems of wealth, such as the cost of housing, but for much of the rest that is a taste of honey that they will never get. Just grinding austerity and the feeling of being left behind. Brexit is a symptom, not the cure of such ills.
    I'd say it is much more mixed up.

    There's a lot of poverty in London and parts of the SE with collapsing levels of home ownership and what I term middle class regression.

    But equally lots of people are doing very nicely in what are thought of as deprived areas.

    In many ways its easier to be rich in a poor town than in a rich town and likewise easier to be poor in a rich town than a poor town.

    Relative contrasts matter both financially and psychologically.
    It is a simplification of couse, but the interesting JRT analysis of Brexit showed that those stuck in the middle in different areas were affected by their peers. Those in prosperous parts were more likely to vote Remain, while the same profile in less prosperous parts were inclined to Leave. People are affected by their environment, so a secretary in Hartlepool would vote differently to one in Cambridge.
  • I'm just skimming that, and there's some interesting details wrt the rescue of the Thai boys from the cave and who did what.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <
    Unemployment is half the level Labour left in 2010 and the deficit has fallen whatever you think if Brexit.

    Part of the fall in unemployment has been down to changes which make it harder to register as unemployed and remain unemployed.

    Putting that to one side, it isn't just about people having jobs - we can employ people to dig holes and fill them in again. The issue is productivity - there are more of us doing about the same - what about improving in business processes and investing in technology? It may be cheaper to employ people when there is an unending supply of cheap labour but that isn't what leads to real economic growth and progress.

    As for the deficit, fantastic, yet when well-run Conservative councils such as Somerset, Surrey and East Sussex are staring into the financial abyss and being forced to cut services to the bone, why should I cheer a fall in the deficit? Why isn't Hammond throwing millions at Councils to help them instead of sub-contracting austerity?

    Wrong. It doesn’t matter a blind fig if you can can register for unemployment benefit or not. That’s the measure of the claimant count. Not the unemployment figures. They are conducted as a labour force study using exactly the same process as every other Eu state.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    edited September 2018
    GIN1138 said:

    FPT..
    What will people say if we strike a fairly comprehensive deal with the EU, something that could be represented as BINO, and a recession follows (possibly by year end 2019) ?

    Which I think is actually think is a likely scenario.

    An unstable "half in/half out" situation that people think could collapse at any moment will be worse in the long term than a so called "no deal" IMO.
    I agree with that. The risk is that May is engineering the worst of all worlds: where nobody lets go of the settlement.

    At least with no deal, we have to confront certainties.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    notme said:

    stodge said:



    Let's try it the other way, do you think the years since 2010 have been good ones for this country and all its citizens? Yes, some have done well, you personally may have done well, good luck to you.

    I see a lot that isn't right or positive whether it be well-run local authorities being forced to cut services because this Government is unable or unwilling to help them. I also see too many people, especially in London, struggling to survive, people who have to work long hours often in more than one job to pay for the basics of life.

    Do I think Labour could do any better? No and I criticised them on here aplenty in the Blair and Brown years.

    I'm not prepared to give any Government a free pass - I have a right to criticise, to question and to offer alternatives, that's called democracy last time I looked.

    I think that whether you live in the SE of England, or a similar microgeography affects perceptions. For much of the remainder of the country it has been a decade of stagnation at best, with continued erosion of wages. London and the SE struggle with some of the problems of wealth, such as the cost of housing, but for much of the rest that is a taste of honey that they will never get. Just grinding austerity and the feeling of being left behind. Brexit is a symptom, not the cure of such ills.
    I'd say it is much more mixed up.

    There's a lot of poverty in London and parts of the SE with collapsing levels of home ownership and what I term middle class regression.

    But equally lots of people are doing very nicely in what are thought of as deprived areas.

    In many ways its easier to be rich in a poor town than in a rich town and likewise easier to be poor in a rich town than a poor town.

    Relative contrasts matter both financially and psychologically.
    It is a simplification of couse, but the interesting JRT analysis of Brexit showed that those stuck in the middle in different areas were affected by their peers. Those in prosperous parts were more likely to vote Remain, while the same profile in less prosperous parts were inclined to Leave. People are affected by their environment, so a secretary in Hartlepool would vote differently to one in Cambridge.
    The irony being that the secretary would be more likely to be a home owner and have a better lifestyle in Hartlepool than Cambridge.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    12m12 minutes ago

    UK, Kantar poll:

    CON-ECR: 40%
    LAB-S&D: 35% (-4)
    LDEM-ALDE: 10% (+1)
    UKIP-EFDD: 5% (+1)
    SNP-G/EFA: 4%
    GREENS-G/EFA: 4%
    PC-G/EFA: 0% (-1)

    Field work: 6/09/18 – 10/09/18
    Sample size: 1,119"
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    UBS 'rogue trader' gets last-minute reprieve from deportation

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/17/uk-deportation-ubs-kweku-adoboli-ghana

    It is not a reprieve - more a temporary stay of execution.

    He seriously broke the law. He has not legal status within the UK. Why should the courts look at this yet again? Nothing to do with the colour of his skin or his country of origin - and everything to do with applying the law.
    I know the truth about that man, much of which did not come out at trial. He is a crook and was so even before his conviction for fraud. If I shared with you the facts I know about him, you’d understand my immense anger and frustration.

    I was involved in this case from the day it started until it ended. He was not scapegoated, as he claims. He was rightly convicted and was lucky, as the Court of Appeal pointed out, not to have received the maximum sentence for fraud.

    He has been peddling bullshit ever since his release.

    Adoboli deserves everything he got and is now getting. He has not admitted his faults. He has not apologised to the many people he wronged and whose lives he ruined. He still does not think that what he did was a crime. He has not been changing banking culture. There are plenty of others who have done and are still doing more than him to understand what went wrong and what needs putting right in the finance sector, people with real insight and an understanding of the difference between right and wrong, neither if which he has.

    He is - and always has been - a liar and a bullshitter whose only skill is to play the victim, rather than accept responsibility, and manipulate others into believing his act. It’s what led him into trouble in the first place and that MPs and others are being duped as others have been duped by him in the past is utterly depressing and demoralising for those of us who know the reality and have had to clean up the mess made by him and others like him.

    He has wealthy family in Ghana who are well able to look after him.

    This judicial review is utterly misconceived.

    Aaaaargh.....!



  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    notme said:

    Foxy said:

    notme said:

    stodge said:


    Of course not, but you referred to putting an X in the blue team box in the second team plural.

    I wondered because you seem to have a hair-trigger temper whenever it comes to anyone mentioning the Conservative Government’s record in anything like a positive light, so I wondered if it had badly let you down in the past when you’d placed your trust in it.

    Let's try it the other way, do you think the years since 2010 have been good ones for this country and all its citizens? Yes, some have done well, you personally may have done well, good luck to you.

    I see a lot that isn't right or positive whether it be well-run local authorities being forced to cut services because this Government is unable or unwilling to help them. I also see too many people, especially in London, struggling to survive, people who have to work long hours often in more than one job to pay for the basics of life.

    Do I think Labour could do any better? No and I criticised them on here aplenty in the Blair and Brown years.

    I'm not prepared to give any Government a free pass - I have a right to criticise, to question and to offer alternatives, that's called democracy last time I looked.
    I think actually people aren
    I think that whether you live in the SE of England, or a similar microgeography affects perceptions. For much of the remainder of the country it has been a decade of stagnation at best, with continued erosion of wages. London and the SE struggle with some of the problems of wealth, such as the cost of housing, but for much of the rest that is a taste of honey that they will never get. Just grinding austerity and the feeling of being left behind. Brexit is a symptom, not the cure of such ills.
    Grinding austerity? You are having a laugh. George Osborne made a virtue out of it, but the reality was only the police and local government suffered any. The nhs continued to have its mouth shoved with gold, to the detriment of everything else. Austerity just meant getting spending back the percentages before the crash and before the ‘temporary stimulus’.

    Grinding austerity is a tag line foe some ken loach nonsense. Not someone who should know better.
    My NHS pay has shrunk in real terms by 20% over the decade, though some staff groups have done slightly better at only half that paycut. This year was another 2% real terms cut. Capital spending has been frozen.

    But sure, tell people that we've been stuffed with gold.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Foxy said:

    notme said:

    Foxy said:

    notme said:

    stodge said:


    Of course not, but you referred to putting an X in the blue team box in the second team plural.

    I wondered because you seem to have a hair-trigger temper whenever it comes to anyone mentioning the Conservative Government’s record in anything like a positive light, so I wondered if it had badly let you down in the past when you’d placed your trust in it.

    Let's try it the other way, do you think the years since 2010 have been good ones for this country and all its citizens? Yes, some have done well, you personally may have done well, good luck to you.

    I see a lot that isn't right or positive whether it be well-run local authorities being forced to cut services because this Government is unable or unwilling to help them. I also see too many people, especially in London, struggling to survive, people who have to work long hours often in more than one job to pay for the basics of life.

    Do I think Labour could do any better? No and I criticised them on here aplenty in the Blair and Brown years.

    I'm not prepared to give any Government a free pass - I have a right to criticise, to question and to offer alternatives, that's called democracy last time I looked.
    I think actually people aren
    I think that whether you live in the SE of England, or a similar microgeography affects perceptions. For much of the remainder of the country it has been a decade of stagnation at best, with continued erosion of wages. London and the SE struggle with some of the problems of wealth, such as the cost of housing, but for much of the rest that is a taste of honey that they will never get. Just grinding austerity and the feeling of being left behind. Brexit is a symptom, not the cure of such ills.
    Grinding austerity? You are having a laugh. George Osborne made a virtue out of it, but the reality was only the police and local government suffered any. The nhs continued to have its mouth shoved with gold, to the detriment of everything else. Austerity just meant getting spending back the percentages before the crash and before the ‘temporary stimulus’.

    Grinding austerity is a tag line foe some ken loach nonsense. Not someone who should know better.
    My NHS pay has shrunk in real terms by 20% over the decade, though some staff groups have done slightly better at only half that paycut. This year was another 2% real terms cut. Capital spending has been frozen.

    But sure, tell people that we've been stuffed with gold.
    The service has been stuffed with gold to the point you could extract 24k pate out of it.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,264

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT..
    What will people say if we strike a fairly comprehensive deal with the EU, something that could be represented as BINO, and a recession follows (possibly by year end 2019) ?

    Which I think is actually think is a likely scenario.

    An unstable "half in/half out" situation that people think could collapse at any moment will be worse in the long term than a so called "no deal" IMO.
    I agree with that. The risk is that May is engineering the worst of all worlds: where nobody lets go of the settlement.

    At least with no deal, we have to confront certainties.
    Except no one can be certain what those 'certainties' are.
  • Tv should always give viewers a warning before they screen Andrew Bridgen talking about anything.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT..
    What will people say if we strike a fairly comprehensive deal with the EU, something that could be represented as BINO, and a recession follows (possibly by year end 2019) ?

    Which I think is actually think is a likely scenario.

    An unstable "half in/half out" situation that people think could collapse at any moment will be worse in the long term than a so called "no deal" IMO.
    I agree with that. The risk is that May is engineering the worst of all worlds: where nobody lets go of the settlement.

    At least with no deal, we have to confront certainties.
    May's deal could be a lot like when the Tories tied us to the ERM... And we know how that finished up.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    Foxy said:

    notme said:

    Foxy said:

    notme said:

    stodge said:


    Of course not, but you referred to putting an X in the blue team box in the second team plural.

    I wondered because you seem to have a hair-trigger temper whenever it comes to anyone mentioning the Conservative Government’s record in anything like a positive light, so I wondered if it had badly let you down in the past when you’d placed your trust in it.

    Let's try it the other way, do you think the years since 2010 have been good ones for this country and all its citizens? Yes, some have done well, you personally may have done well, good luck to you.

    I see a lot that isn't right or positive whether it be well-run local authorities being forced to cut services because this Government is unable or unwilling to help them. I also see too many people, especially in London, struggling to survive, people who have to work long hours often in more than one job to pay for the basics of life.

    Do I think Labour could do any better? No and I criticised them on here aplenty in the Blair and Brown years.

    I'm not prepared to give any Government a free pass - I have a right to criticise, to question and to offer alternatives, that's called democracy last time I looked.
    I think actually people aren
    I think that whether you live in the SE of England, or a similar microgeography affects perceptions. For much of the remainder of the country it has been a decade of stagnation at best, with continued erosion of wages. London and the SE struggle with some of the problems of wealth, such as the cost of housing, but for much of the rest that is a taste of honey that they will never get. Just grinding austerity and the feeling of being left behind. Brexit is a symptom, not the cure of such ills.
    Grinding austerity? You are having a laugh. George Osborne made a virtue out of it, but the reality was only the police and local government suffered any. The nhs continued to have its mouth shoved with gold, to the detriment of everything else. Austerity just meant getting spending back the percentages before the crash and before the ‘temporary stimulus’.

    Grinding austerity is a tag line foe some ken loach nonsense. Not someone who should know better.
    My NHS pay has shrunk in real terms by 20% over the decade, though some staff groups have done slightly better at only half that paycut. This year was another 2% real terms cut. Capital spending has been frozen.

    But sure, tell people that we've been stuffed with gold.
    You haven’t, sure. But your pensions have been protected by the tax payer, whilst the rest of us have seen the sums we need for our old age multiply as interest rates have gone subterranean.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited September 2018
    The SCOTUS nomination is turning into a car crash for the Republicans. Hot on the heels of the attempted rape claim comes more whispers about what did Kavanaugh know about disgraced judge Alex Kozinski's behaviour when he clerked for him?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    welshowl said:

    Foxy said:

    notme said:

    Foxy said:

    notme said:

    stodge said:


    Of course not, but you referred to putting an X in the blue team box in the second team plural.

    I wondered because you seem to have a hair-trigger temper whenever it comes to anyone mentioning the Conservative Government’s record in anything like a positive light, so I wondered if it had badly let you down in the past when you’d placed your trust in it.

    Let's try it the other way, do you think the years since 2010 have been good ones for this country and all its citizens? Yes, some have done well, you personally may have done well, good luck to you.

    I see a lot that isn't right or positive whether it be well-run local authorities being forced to cut services because this Government is unable or unwilling to help them. I also see too many people, especially in London, struggling to survive, people who have to work long hours often in more than one job to pay for the basics of life.

    Do I think Labour could do any better? No and I criticised them on here aplenty in the Blair and Brown years.

    I'm not prepared to give any Government a free pass - I have a right to criticise, to question and to offer alternatives, that's called democracy last time I looked.
    I think actually people aren
    I think that whether you live in the SE of England
    Grinding austerity? You are having a laugh. George Osborne made a virtue out of it, but the reality was only the police and local government suffered any. The nhs continued to have its mouth shoved with gold, to the detriment of everything else. Austerity just meant getting spending back the percentages before the crash and before the ‘temporary stimulus’.

    Grinding austerity is a tag line foe some ken loach nonsense. Not someone who should know better.
    My NHS pay has shrunk in real terms by 20% over the decade, though some staff groups have done slightly better at only half that paycut. This year was another 2% real terms cut. Capital spending has been frozen.

    But sure, tell people that we've been stuffed with gold.
    You haven’t, sure. But your pensions have been protected by the tax payer, whilst the rest of us have seen the sums we need for our old age multiply as interest rates have gone subterranean.
    Yep, and I plan to take that pension next year and run.

    But I see you agree that many others have been squeezed too.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited September 2018
    notme said:



    I think actually people aren’t dog too badly. Public services are pretty good, child poverty down, adult poverty down, pensioner poverty all but disappearing. The struggle has been to reduce cyclical spending without massive cuts. This has come about by a six year long public sector freeze. Predictably though is has resulted in a struggle to recruit and retain skilled public service staff. Did I also mention Full Employment?

    What is shocking to me is the apparent complete lack of understanding of the depth of the crisis that Local Government is in. Outside of those really experiencing it, i think even those who think they realise are underestimating the problems. Even some Councillors in affected authorities are only vaguely aware of the scale of what they are dealing with. The gap between public (and central government) perception and reality is shocking.

    I work for a London local authority, in finance, not at a vastly senior level, but with a level of experience that (especially given the turnover in recent years) means that i probably know more about how the place works than almost anyone else. My cost to the the tax payer (inclusive of oncosts - 'gold plated' pension, "generous" holidays etc etc) is probably around £250 a day. A generic interim replacement at my level, at current market rates would cost potentially north of £450 a day. And that's a generic replacement - anyone who works in a local authority knows that (outside of a few very specific areas) there is no such thing as a generic replacement - experience and inside knowledge is irreplaceable. How is it remotely possible to close that gap? Who's going to want to take a permanent role with generous holidays when you can work as an interim for the same salary and take 1/3 of the year off? When you can create your own gold plated pension all by yourself?

    Once the public sector could rely on an element of "public sector ethos" and general goodwill from staff. These days when conditions are being regularly downgraded by benchmarking to the lowest common private sector comparator, when "job security" is only guaranteed by the pace of people fleeing exceeding the pace of cuts, this is increasingly a fantasy. The only reason people don't leave is because of inertia. Or because they are too close to retirement. But there is no new generation coming through. And none that will commit to the long term.

  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    Foxy said:

    welshowl said:

    Foxy said:

    notme said:

    Foxy said:

    notme said:

    stodge said:


    Of course not, but you referred to putting an X in the blue team box in the second team plural.

    I wondered because you seem to have a hair-trigger temper whenever it comes to anyone mentioning the Conservative Government’s record in anything like a positive light, so I wondered if it had badly let you down in the past when you’d placed your trust in it.

    Let's try it the other way, do you think the years since 2010 have been good ones for this country and all its citizens? Yes, some have done well, you personally may have done well, good luck to you.

    I see a lot that isn't right or positive whether it be well-run local authorities being forced to cut services because this Government is unable or unwilling to help them. I also see too many people, especially in London, struggling to survive, people who have to work long hours often in more than one job to pay for the basics of life.

    Do I think Labour could do any better? No and I criticised them on here aplenty in the Blair and Brown years.

    I'm not prepared to give any Government a free pass - I have a right to criticise, to question and to offer alternatives, that's called democracy last time I looked.
    I think actually people aren
    I think that whether you live in the SE of England
    Grinding austerity? You are having a laugh. George Osborne made a virtue out of it, but the reality was only the police and local government suffered any. The nhs continued to have its mouth shoved with gold, to the detriment of everything else. Austerity just meant getting spending back the percentages before the crash and before the ‘temporary stimulus’.

    Grinding austerity is a tag line foe some ken loach nonsense. Not someone who should know better.
    My NHS pay has shrunk in real terms by 20% over the decade, though some staff groups have done slightly better at only half that paycut. This year was another 2% real terms cut. Capital spending has been frozen.

    But sure, tell people that we've been stuffed with gold.
    You haven’t, sure. But your pensions have been protected by the tax payer, whilst the rest of us have seen the sums we need for our old age multiply as interest rates have gone subterranean.
    Yep, and I plan to take that pension next year and run.

    But I see you agree that many others have been squeezed too.
    Indeed I do, but we were borrowing more than Greece.

    That said, pensions are huge. A million quid buys you 28.5k index linked at 65 with 50% on death for the spouse ( ie public sector more or less).

    “Pay” must be seen in the round.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    welshowl said:



    You haven’t, sure. But your pensions have been protected by the tax payer, whilst the rest of us have seen the sums we need for our old age multiply as interest rates have gone subterranean.

    http://www.nhsemployers.org/your-workforce/pay-and-reward/pensions/new-2015-scheme
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    alex. said:

    notme said:



    I think actually people aren’t dog too badly. Public services are pretty good, child poverty down, adult poverty down, pensioner poverty all but disappearing. The struggle has been to reduce cyclical spending without massive cuts. This has come about by a six year long public sector freeze. Predictably though is has resulted in a struggle to recruit and retain skilled public service staff. Did I also mention Full Employment?

    What is shocking to me is the apparent complete lack of understanding of the depth of the crisis that Local Government is in. Outside of those really experiencing it, i think even those who think they realise are underestimating the problems. Even some Councillors in affected authorities are only vaguely aware of the scale of what they are dealing with. The gap between public (and central government) perception and reality is shocking.

    I work for a London local authority, in finance, not at a vastly senior level, but with a level of experience that (especially given the turnover in recent years) means that i probably know more about how the place works than almost anyone else. My cost to the the tax payer (inclusive of oncosts - 'gold plated' pension, "generous" holidays etc etc) is probably around £250 a day. A generic replacement at my level, at current market rates would cost potentially north of £450 a day. And that's a generic replacement - anyone who works in a local authority knows that (outside of a few very specific areas) there is no such thing as a generic replacement - experience and inside knowledge is irreplaceable. How is it remotely possible to close that gap? Who's going to want to take a permanent role with generous holidays when you can work as an interim for the same salary and take 1/3 of the year off? When you can create your own gold plated pension all by yourself?

    Once the public sector could rely on an element of "public sector ethos" and general goodwill from staff. These days when conditions are being regularly downgraded by benchmarking to the lowest common private sector comparator, when "job security" is only guaranteed by the pace of people fleeing exceeding the pace of cuts, this is increasingly a fantasy. The only reason people don't leave is because of inertia. Or because they are too close to retirement. But there is no new generation coming through. And none that will commit to the long term.

    I'd agree with pretty much all of that. It was an easy target, not entirely unreasonably, but people are now pretty complacent about just how much trouble is developing now.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    alex. said:

    notme said:



    I think actually people aren’t dog too badly. Public services are pretty good, child poverty down, adult poverty down, pensioner poverty all but disappearing. The struggle has been to reduce cyclical spending without massive cuts. This has come about by a six year long public sector freeze. Predictably though is has resulted in a struggle to recruit and retain skilled public service staff. Did I also mention Full Employment?

    What is shocking to me is the apparent complete lack of understanding of the depth of the crisis that Local Government is in. Outside of those really experiencing it, i think even those who think they realise are underestimating the problems. Even some Councillors in affected authorities are only vaguely aware of the scale of what they are dealing with. The gap between public (and central government) perception and reality is shocking.

    I work for a London local authority, in finance, not at a vastly senior level, but with a level of experience that (especially given the turnover in recent years) means that i probably know more about how the place works than almost anyone else. My cost to the the tax payer (inclusive of oncosts - 'gold plated' pension, "generous" holidays etc etc) is probably around £250 a day. cal authority knows that (outside of a few very specific areas) there is no such thing as a generic replacement - experience and inside knowledge is irreplaceable. How is it remotely possible to close that gap? Who's going to want to take a permanent role with generous holidays when you can work as an interim for the same salary and take 1/3 of the year off? When you can create your own gold plated pension all by yourself?

    Once the public sector could rely on an element of "public sector ethos" and general goodwill from staff. These days when conditions are being regularly downgraded by benchmarking to the lowest common private sector comparator, when "job security" is only guaranteed by the pace of people fleeing exceeding the pace of cuts, this is increasingly a fantasy. The only reason people don't leave is because of inertia. Or because they are too close to retirement. But there is no new generation coming through. And none that will commit to the long term.

    Local gvt should be a case study of how you can take 40% out of a public service and it not make the slightest jot of difference to the service delivered. The struggle is led by increased social services demand and is only now hitting home. Local gvt has now reached a point where it needs to grow adult care greater than inflation.

    We need to be rolling these kind of cuts across the board. Nhs and education behave as if they’ve undergone some kind of austerity. Utter bolderdash. Gvt should have had the guts to do the same. People think they have anyway.
  • Alistair said:

    The SCOTUS nomination is turning into a car crash for the Republicans. Hot on the heels of the attempted rape claim comes more whispers about what did Kavanaugh know about disgraced judge Alex Kozinski's behaviour when he clerked for him?

    The attempted rape claim needs to be properly tested before it can be allowed to become a received fact. There are significant differences between the various versions of events described by the complainant. She is not even that certain as to which year it happened.

    By holding this back until the very end of the process, the Democrats have made it very difficult for Kavanaugh to get an opportunity to challenge these serious accusations.

    Which is probably why they acted in the way they did.

    If he did it - then he should suffer accordingly. But trial by Democrat leaks is not fair for anyone. Not on Kavanaugh and not on the woman making the claims.

    As for whispers about other things - they should be on the record or ignored. Gossip is not evidence of anything.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    EU wants us to "stare into the abyss" and then we'll blink.

    Seems a dangerous assumption to me...
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    GIN1138 said:

    EU wants us to "stare into the abyss" and then we'll blink.

    Seems a dangerous assumption to me...
    Wont be the first time...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    notme said:

    GIN1138 said:

    EU wants us to "stare into the abyss" and then we'll blink.

    Seems a dangerous assumption to me...
    Wont be the first time...
    It often works. But keep pushing people to the brink and eventually they will fall off, perhaps even unintentionally.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    GIN1138 said:

    EU wants us to "stare into the abyss" and then we'll blink.

    Seems a dangerous assumption to me...
    Indeed, much of the past hundred years history of Europe consists the fallout of Continentals assuming the Brits won’t do things the Brits have said they would do. Belgium 1914, Poland 1939, Brexit 2016.....
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    Freggles said:

    welshowl said:



    You haven’t, sure. But your pensions have been protected by the tax payer, whilst the rest of us have seen the sums we need for our old age multiply as interest rates have gone subterranean.

    http://www.nhsemployers.org/your-workforce/pay-and-reward/pensions/new-2015-scheme
    El Dorado compared to anyone in the private sector.
  • Would have been a much less interesting and much less positive story if Churchill had acted as the continentals wanted in our actual 'darkest hour'.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    The SCOTUS nomination is turning into a car crash for the Republicans. Hot on the heels of the attempted rape claim comes more whispers about what did Kavanaugh know about disgraced judge Alex Kozinski's behaviour when he clerked for him?

    The attempted rape claim needs to be properly tested before it can be allowed to become a received fact. There are significant differences between the various versions of events described by the complainant. She is not even that certain as to which year it happened.

    By holding this back until the very end of the process, the Democrats have made it very difficult for Kavanaugh to get an opportunity to challenge these serious accusations.

    Which is probably why they acted in the way they did.

    If he did it - then he should suffer accordingly. But trial by Democrat leaks is not fair for anyone. Not on Kavanaugh and not on the woman making the claims.

    As for whispers about other things - they should be on the record or ignored. Gossip is not evidence of anything.
    The whisper is that they are about to go on the record.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    Do you post this stuff hoping we’ll be scared somehow?

    Because it’s not going to work.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,264
    welshowl said:

    Freggles said:

    welshowl said:



    You haven’t, sure. But your pensions have been protected by the tax payer, whilst the rest of us have seen the sums we need for our old age multiply as interest rates have gone subterranean.

    http://www.nhsemployers.org/your-workforce/pay-and-reward/pensions/new-2015-scheme
    El Dorado compared to anyone in the private sector.
    Just having retired from a bank, and knowing quite a few others who have retired from the City, I'd say that's not true.
This discussion has been closed.