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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betfair punters make it about an evens chance that TMay will be out next year – I’m not tempted

One of the great jobs of returning from a longish holiday is reviewing how things have changed while you’ve been away and the biggest move over the past three weeks is how the Chequers Brexit plan is gathering support. Maybe the Mail was following rather than leading. TMay’s big gamble might just succeed.

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NickPalmer

My guess is that she'll stay till the next election. Nobody is sure enough of winning a contest to make a challenge worth risking, and as I've said before it's hard to first vote for her EU deal (success, hallalujah!) and then eject her. The only reasons to oust her are personal ambitions (which don't extend beyond the individuals and their immediate allies) and the belief that she'd lose an election. The current polls show the Tories opening up a small lead, so they will be starting to discount the latter.

A good deal hinges on how the conferences go this year.

NickPalmer

BTW, the German polls are oddly disparate at the moment.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

As usual, INSA shows the AfD much higher and the CDU much lower than the others, while Forsa shown little change on the last election except for the Greens gaining from almost everyone. The election in traditionally conservative Bavaria (the CSU base) on Sunday looks dramatic, with CSU well down, SPD halved, Greens doubled, the AfD entering on 11-14% and the FDP and Left entering the state Parliament.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm

There are elections two weeks later in Hessen, a small western state, where the same trends appear in lesser form.