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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay hasn’t had front pages like this since she made the fateful decision to call GE2017
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Everyone else knew Chequers was not viable, why didn't she?
Which is the sincerest wish of Leave anyway.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7318775/brexit-chequers-pm-northern-ireland/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
That turned out well, didn’t it!
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/22/john-mcdonnell-labour-wants-to-push-ahead-with-brexit
The only thing missing was asking everyone to sing the national anthem.
Sad .
FPT:
The incompetent intransigent May, who seems to lack emotional intelligence, is a millstone round the neck of the UK. Even the excellent joke about "would you like some cake, sorry no cherries" doesn't seem to have got through to this dimwit, judging by her speech yesterday from number 10. Even Corbyn would do a better job, and he at least has the merit of not being a racist - I can't imagine him using the phrase "citizens of nowhere".
May agreed last December that there would be no hard border between the 6 counties and the rest of Ireland, and the EU quite rightly considers that the 4 freedoms associated with the Single Market are indivisible (they run the club and therefore set the rules), so the Chequers proposals were clearly stillborn. There are only 2 options for a deal between the EU and the UK (leaving aside a no deal departure, and aborting section 50 to remain in the EU):
1. A hard Brexit with the border between customs areas in the Irish Sea (or the Cheviots if Scotland secedes and remains in the EU); and
2. A soft Brexit with the whole of the UK remaining in the Customs Union/Single Market, i.e. BINO.
The sooner the UK chooses one of these 2 options, and agrees the practical details of how they can be implemented, the better, otherwise the planes will really stop flying on 30/3/19. One only has to look at the stand off between 2 other major European countries, Russia and the Ukraine, to see how badly relations could deteriorate - the 6 counties could once again become the equivalent of the Donbass.
Brave, but not good for us.
And yes, I agree the chances are small, but it’s called planning for possible eventualities!
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/407888-five-takeaways-from-cruz-orourkes-fiery-first-debate
If this was "for domestic consumption" then the Cons are worth backing to win at the next GE. If, that said, the GE were to be held next week.
As it stands however I don't see how we have moved forward.
While both sides tacitly understood this formulation, there was a critical difference: the EU regarded Chequers as a pseudo-option, a virtual solution that might help close off the Withdrawal Agreement and then guide everyone into the trade negotiations where, over time, the UK would settle for a softer Brexit.
Theresa May saw it as a literal solution.
In Salzburg the virtual met the literal, and the Jenga tower collapsed.
May won't resign because she knows any alternative will split the party and Corbyn is unsackable. So with this unstoppable force meeting this immovable object something has to give. What else can break the logjam apart from another referendum?
I think in any case it is very unlikely May will survive (politically) beyond next summer, and Corbyn is not quite as securely in the saddle as many assume just because of his age. So natural causes may help unlock the logjam.
A more pertinent question might be whether their replacements will be any better. At the moment I wouldn't bet on that.
https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1042782370431225856?s=19
It would be politically suicidal, but somebody like Leadsom who clearly has no future might try it.
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/21/jeremy-corbyns-spending-plan-for-public-services-backed-by-majority
Parliament won't vote for exit to EEA. Won't vote for no deal (I expect a vote compelling the government not to accept a no deal scenario). Yet they are your choices...
Even so I would argue Suez was less disastrous than RBS.
https://www.captaineuro.eu/the-impossible-brexit-mess/
https://www.captaineuro.eu/captain-euro-how-to-be-a-cool-european/
The post Suez search for a new international role was what led us into Europe.
A decade on there seems a real possibility that the worst effects of 2008 have not been felt yet.
What are your positive arguments for staying in the EU? Arguments which will turn around voters?
What happens if there’s another no.
Never ask a question that you aren’t confident of getting the answer that you want.
I voted Labour and supported Michael Foot when he was Labour leader, despite his sometimes simplistic policies because he was also a patriot in the old fashioned sense - the antithesis of Jezza.
Corbyn has one or two decent policies but he fails the UK test. If his socialist experiment failed, he would shed no tears if we descended into Venezuelan chaos. He might be annoyed and blame Farmer Jones (the USA), but he'd regard our demise as pay-back for our capitalist and colonialist past.
May might be playing the patriot card but it's a powerful one even now and wrong-foots the EU. They may have overplayed their hand and they know it. Not all Remainers are doggedly anti-UK. The gobby ones may be, but a majority, they're not.
Literally anything could happen in the next couple of months...
Unless the EU can offer something in return for a cspulation which she might be able to sell. May be.but what could that be? Yes. It's not certain but it creates chaos and puts s lot of pressure on so definitely increases the chance.
I need to have a nose at the legislation. How do you see that working? Parliament voted to trigger A50 which sets a timescale and includes no deal. If there is no deal and the two years expires what is the effect of a Parliamentary vote not to accept it?
https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1043328129064939522?s=21
If the EU is to bend at all because they do want a deal, and it is a big if, it seems like it would be on ireland. I just don't see how the UK agrees to split up it's country and some EU fudge there seems like a lesser impact than a fudge on a customs partnership for all. Still no idea how that would get through the commons though.
I assume the next immediate phase will be May getting through conference if she can with a view to promising she will now pursue a harder deal if the EU dont back down on Chequers by Oct, and then as media and mps turn once that becomes more likely some fudge will be offered which she says is Chequers or Chequers lite but the EU calls something else.
Somebody is going to have to massively change direction to strike a deal, and we look more likely than the EU. And if a deal is not reached and parliament still doesn't want to accept no deal then people in it will also need to massively change direction; either accepting no deal, or backing options previously ruled out.
Brexit is a self inflicted wound to the UK.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/sep/21/the-politics-minute-midterms-early-voting-elections
Also, Foxy's (very worthwhile) Twitter stream pointed out this scathing Spectator piece, which takes no prisoners in Britain, Hungary, Poland or anywhere else. Alastair in particular will like it.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/09/how-orban-duped-the-brexiteers/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Christmas Dinner is going to be uncomfortable in their house!
Which is despite it's problems I think a ref or GE is coming. A ref gives cover to back a final outcome, though is risky as he'll, and technically means the gov doesn't need to worry about losing until 2022. Assuming this time the ref is made binding on the legislation or it is actually implemented.
If the EU want to do a deal or reverse the result, someone had better tell Tusk to stop taking the piss out of us - it’s poor form when Russia do it.
What happens when MPs reject all options available? Reject extending the timetable? Reject a new referendum? But vote that they have confidence in Her Majesty's Government? What happens when despite all that the Prime Minister refuses to resign?
MPs won't vote for exit to EEA. Have a legally binding meaningful vote which will reject no deal and compel one of the options they have already rejected. Won't vote for a referendum to hand this critis back to the voters. And despite it all probably won't vote no confidence in the government. Nor will May face a viable challenge from her MPs.
A Prime Minister and a government literally stuck in office unable to do anything at all other than make petulant speeches about how crap a negotiator she is. Yet whilst stuck in office unable to do anything may work at another time, at this time we cannot have that...
That hasn't changed.
Not being as blatant or I suppose honest in ones ambition is s cliche I suppose, but it is for a reason - it makes people look better.
Only the government negotiates, without bringing down the government and putting Corbyn in no10, how would they stop it.
Article 50 extension again can only be requested by the prime minister.
Passing motions ordering government back to negotiate can just be ignored . Will remainder Tories really put Corbyn in power to stop no deal.
As I've always said, discussions with the EU were always going to be protracted and awkward, because they mirror the hectoring bullying style adopted by someone who is always right. They can't move on the four freedoms because that would be a betrayal of the past for them.
Solution … play for time, make it as awkward as possible, cut off nose to a small extent. They'll fall back into line, Greece did, Ireland did. If you give in to majorities, chaos will ensue. Populism is dangerous because you can't trust people to make the right decision unless they have the appropriate guidance.
The EU would rather we stayed. If we leave, it must be under the worst terms possible to discourage others. The decision we make is whether we 're happy to remain a member of a club that doesn't allow leavers. That reality will hamstring any second referendum. The leaflets write themselves.
A referendum might not either, but has a better chance In my view.
I sometimes wonder if those who believe in such things think we should pass laws saying that we should always have sunny days on Tuesdays.
However, she failed to understand that the EU does not do negotiation with supplicants.
This is Greece and Syrizia all over.
Even now, May is still ruling out BINO, and a Hard Brexit. She is also ruling out a referendum.
That leaves Chequers - already rejected - or May herself must go.
Starmers "red lines" would be very different to May's, and as Labour has a more pro-internationalist philosophy and less obsession with ficticious trade deals, could well break the logjam.
"..... Among the NUS’s ... proposals was calling for an end to ‘coercively assigning gender at birth’.
There needs to be time to prepare. We need to do more than book portaloos.
Like Hunt or not (and I don’t), he put it serious time and effort at Health.
Johnson is just a lazy blagger.
https://twitter.com/tconnellyrte/status/1043387852560711680?s=21
1. Deal or no deal, the UK will not be building infrastructure on the border. Whatever EU negotiators insist upon, it still ain't happening - UK politics mean it is impossible and just results in No Deal Brexit. Bad news for all. But especially bad for Ireland.
2. Deal or no deal, there will be no border in the Irish Sea that gives NI a different regime to England/Wales/Scotland. Whatever EU negotiators insist upon, it still ain't happening - UK politics mean it is impossible and just results in No Deal Brexit. Bad news for all. But especially bad for Ireland.
3. No deal means infrastructure on the Irish border to enforce that border. It will have to be built by Ireland, on the instructions of the EU. Is that your position, Brussels? (If so, don't expect a great deal of security assistance with terrorism across the EU, because our assets will be too busy tracking down the guys who keep blowing up your border infrastructure...)
4. If we can agree no infrastructure is to be built, the UK will work with you to ensure that goods entering/leaving across that border are monitored, by all manner of electronic means. It is in no-ones interest for it to be a smugglers paradise.
Is it really that hard?
Which is nice. Except she made a proposal that only the cretinously stupid cant see is unacveptable to the EU at a base level. Except that they have patiently repeatedly explained why it is unacceptable. Except that they have made a counter proposal. And it is May, not Junker, who will move first.
Whatever cards the UK still held were thrown away in that short speech. Politically the damage to May when she does move first will end any hope of a deal other than EEA. And yet she remains trapped in office...