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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The biggest US midterms battle: Beto O’Rourke’s Texas effort to unseat Ted Cruz
Of all the elections that are taking place across the US in November the one that’s attracting the most attention is the effort by Beto O’Rourke to take the Texas Senate seat held by Ted Cruz. Overnight there was the first TC debate as featured in the video clip above.
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https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1043278255740973058
https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/tx/texas_governor_abbott_vs_valdez-6435.html
Saying that the most recent poll this week has Cruz up by 9.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tx/texas_senate_cruz_vs_orourke-6310.html
FPT: thanks to Mr. Glenn for the stat on the Leave/Remain polling just after the referendum was called, which had 51% Leave and 49% Remain. Astonishingly little movement from there to the final result.
Not so sure that tweet will lose him votes though. This is Texas, after all.
With a polarised electorate (so a lot of people on both sides who just aren't in play) and a history of Texas being the dog that doesn't ultimately bark for the Democrats, I'm not particularly tempted to lay the GOP on this race.
https://www.texastribune.org/2018/09/18/republican-pete-flores-track-upset-race-democratic-friendly-uresti-sea/
Texas is still far more Republican than the US average and its Governor, both its Senators and a majority of its House and State Legislature are also from the GOP
https://twitter.com/MrTCHarris/status/1043520476495208448
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SI1sWLRXOwU
Switching to a Canada+ solution is by far the most popular option with 42% support, ending the negotiations with the EU altogether and preparing for No Deal gets 36% support, 9% want to join the EEA/EFTA either permanently or temporarily, 7% want to stick with Chequers and 4% want her to postpone Article 50 and Brexit.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/09/our-special-survey-only-one-in-ten-party-members-says-that-may-should-stick-with-chequers.html
O'Rourke is more likely to be President than Cruz from here.
Those who refuse to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. This is not a nation that will be bullied by the rest of our continent.
As the EU has now comprehensively rejected Chequers it can be given the last rites soon enough, Barnier has at least said he is open to a Canada style arrangement, though a transition period and the NI backstop has to be resolved first before moving onto Canada style FTA negotiations
What a revelation!
You mean if Cruz gets more people to vote for him than O’Rourke he... wins?
I don't think the EU is bullying in remaining inflexible, however unreasonable I might think that inflexibility is, but I don't particularly see how a silly accusation of bullying is countered by an equally ridiculous accusation in the opposite direction.
It wasn't imposed on the people, but accepted and endorsed by them, as per the 'invasions' of the future Henry IV and Roger Mortimer in the 14th century.
Corbyn and Milne approved the message...
How can any moderate, realist Labour MP tolerate this?
Now if we can get on to that ground, the gas will well get turned up under the smug duo of Coveney and Varadkar. Because they would be the sole impediment to an agreement between 500m people.
Of course it means the EU actually realising that it doesn’t mention anywhere in the EU treaties about leaving part of your country at the door as you leave a “voluntary “ club.
Anyway, I must be off.
I cannot wait for after Brexit to not see large numbers of defections, since after Brexit was trailed in silly season as the moment a significant number would finally do so.
So it wasn't an issue of us 'bullying' others to get a deal we want out of this, it was an issue that hard or no deal Brexit is much more likely for continuity remainers if the EU doesn't want to assist. So the presence of continental allies, or not, is actually important despite your attempt to shift the goalposts.
At that point it all becomes Varadkar’s problem.
The front row of a Leave Means Leave rally.
EDIT: Indeed the fact the words "our continent" were preceded by the words "the rest of" to form the phrase "the rest of our continent" clearly means that we are not the only ones on this continent. The other 500 million in 27 other countries* would be the rest to whom I referred.
* Actually its more than that. The EU aren't the only ones on our continent.
This confirmation process is going great.
Except that O'Rourke refered to the shooting of an unarmed black man who was in his own home . . . that is not a crime! It is not actually a crime to be 'at home while black'.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/sep/07/dallas-police-officer-shoots-neighbor-wrong-apartment
Watch it to the end to fully understand why this is such a brutal attack ad
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45611403
Across the rest of the EU, while there are individual parties who are highly sceptical and especially about further integration, I can't think of a single main party which is in a position of power and which is opposed to that country's continued membership of the EU.
One of two possible scenarios then - first and less likely, a major political re-alignment in the UK and second, given both the Conservative and Labour parties have done on respective journeys over the past 30 years with regard to Europe, it's a reasonable question to ask where they might be in 30 years time.
The EU will need a guarantee, however, that as with football clubs oscillating between the Premier League and the Championship, we won't be in and out of the EU with every election- in other words, a renewed cross-party concensus in favour of the European Union will need to re-emerge.
I don't think that wholly implausible.
If you wanted to be more specific that isn't what the word literal means.
We need to leave the EU either under Chequers or +++ or Canada +++ to experience the economic realities, possible good but equally not, before a consensus to re join becomes a political possibility.
Unless we leave it will be a constant division across the nation. We just have to get on with it
Doesn’t look overtly different to a momentum rally....
Devastating...
Now they are just 70.
My point is the Conservatives were, not so long ago, the more pro-European of the two main parties - we joined under a Conservative PM, Thatcher actively campaigned to keep us in the EEC in 1975. Yes, you may well argue the EEC's metamorphosis into the EU changed things and led to changes in Conservative attitudes.
The only constant is change - the direction of travel of the EU at this point may not engender a concensus toward re-joining but as any sensible politician should always say "never say never". The EU will evolve and change - it may become a European Federation or United States of Europe, it may become less integrationist as more sceptical Governments come into power and indeed reverse some of the integration (I think that unlikely but not inconceivable).
We do not know what life outside the EU will be like - I'm pretty sure we won't be eating roots or living in mud huts five days after leaving the EU but over a 10-20 year period, it will become clear whether we made the right decision or not.
IF we get it right, it will encourage divergent tensions within the EU - if we are wrong, our political concensus will quickly evolve. The Conservative Party which you support has rightly prided itself on being a pragmatic movement - IF it becomes incontrovertibly clear that leaving the EU was a mistake, there will be a change in policy.
These are politicians that prefer mouthing off to handpicked audiences than actually getting their hands dirty and acheiving anything. Same old, same old.
It rather reminds me of one of my surgical colleagues who was wont to end consultations this way: "Having reviewed all the results and examined you, I think the only way to cure this condition is a very complex and prolonged procedure, and I wish you well in finding a surgeon to do it..."
I find it inappropriate.
Even though I bow to nobody in my loathing and contempt for Murdoch, I can't help but feel this is the greater of two evils.
On the other hand if Sky do go belly up, at least us plebs might get some live sport back on free to air, even if Premiership footballers go back to earning £5 million instead of £500 million.
If not, the most we would likely return to is the Single Market and Customs Union