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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, Brett Kavanaugh, faces a second

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited September 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, Brett Kavanaugh, faces a second accuser

By far the biggest political battle in US politics at the moment is the effort by the Republicans to ensure that Trump’s nominee for the Supreme Court vacancy, Brett Kavanaugh, gets approved.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Frist? Point of infomation: if the final vote goes 50:50 the Veep has the casting vote, so the GOP can afford to lose precisely one Senator.
  • Technically don't the Republicans need 50/100 to get him confirmed? As Vice President Pence has the casting vote in the event of a tie?

    In other words one GOP Senator not going with the White House wouldn't be enough, it would take two to prevent him being approved.
  • Technically don't the Republicans need 50/100 to get him confirmed? As Vice President Pence has the casting vote in the event of a tie?

    In other words one GOP Senator not going with the White House wouldn't be enough, it would take two to prevent him being approved.

    Correct. Two GOP Senators would have to flip
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Hmm, I vaguely like the 5/6 against. 538 had an article a couple of weeks back which pointed out that the GOP likely need to confirm before the midterms or not at all, so any delay to his candidature would be fatal. If such a delay was likely the party might just ditch him quickly so they can fit someone else in time. The new accusers make that likely.

    On the other hand the GOP is pretty resistant to accusations of sexual assault these days, so I'm tempted but not betting atm.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068
    Quincel said:

    Hmm, I vaguely like the 5/6 against. 538 had an article a couple of weeks back which pointed out that the GOP likely need to confirm before the midterms or not at all, so any delay to his candidature would be fatal. If such a delay was likely the party might just ditch him quickly so they can fit someone else in time. The new accusers make that likely.

    On the other hand the GOP is pretty resistant to accusations of sexual assault these days, so I'm tempted but not betting atm.

    It is astonishing that such an important Constitutional position is being chosen this way, with an appountment for life too.

    America is a wierd place.

  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Foxy said:

    Quincel said:

    Hmm, I vaguely like the 5/6 against. 538 had an article a couple of weeks back which pointed out that the GOP likely need to confirm before the midterms or not at all, so any delay to his candidature would be fatal. If such a delay was likely the party might just ditch him quickly so they can fit someone else in time. The new accusers make that likely.

    On the other hand the GOP is pretty resistant to accusations of sexual assault these days, so I'm tempted but not betting atm.

    It is astonishing that such an important Constitutional position is being chosen this way, with an appountment for life too.

    America is a wierd place.

    Believe me, Americans find the idea that Britain's head of state is appointed for life, and hands the post over to their eldest child when they die, to be pretty weird too.
  • Technically don't the Republicans need 50/100 to get him confirmed? As Vice President Pence has the casting vote in the event of a tie?

    In other words one GOP Senator not going with the White House wouldn't be enough, it would take two to prevent him being approved.

    Correct. Two GOP Senators would have to flip
    Could it drag on for months and the senate change?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068
    rpjs said:

    Foxy said:

    Quincel said:

    Hmm, I vaguely like the 5/6 against. 538 had an article a couple of weeks back which pointed out that the GOP likely need to confirm before the midterms or not at all, so any delay to his candidature would be fatal. If such a delay was likely the party might just ditch him quickly so they can fit someone else in time. The new accusers make that likely.

    On the other hand the GOP is pretty resistant to accusations of sexual assault these days, so I'm tempted but not betting atm.

    It is astonishing that such an important Constitutional position is being chosen this way, with an appountment for life too.

    America is a wierd place.

    Believe me, Americans find the idea that Britain's head of state is appointed for life, and hands the post over to their eldest child when they die, to be pretty weird too.
    Sure, but there is no political fighting over who is her successor (well since 1689 at least! )

    And HRH does not have the same practical powers as the SCOTUS.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Foxy said:

    Quincel said:

    Hmm, I vaguely like the 5/6 against. 538 had an article a couple of weeks back which pointed out that the GOP likely need to confirm before the midterms or not at all, so any delay to his candidature would be fatal. If such a delay was likely the party might just ditch him quickly so they can fit someone else in time. The new accusers make that likely.

    On the other hand the GOP is pretty resistant to accusations of sexual assault these days, so I'm tempted but not betting atm.

    It is astonishing that such an important Constitutional position is being chosen this way, with an appountment for life too.

    America is a wierd place.

    Ah forgive them, for they lack the guiding hand of a monarchy (poor things).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    rpjs said:

    Foxy said:

    Quincel said:

    Hmm, I vaguely like the 5/6 against. 538 had an article a couple of weeks back which pointed out that the GOP likely need to confirm before the midterms or not at all, so any delay to his candidature would be fatal. If such a delay was likely the party might just ditch him quickly so they can fit someone else in time. The new accusers make that likely.

    On the other hand the GOP is pretty resistant to accusations of sexual assault these days, so I'm tempted but not betting atm.

    It is astonishing that such an important Constitutional position is being chosen this way, with an appountment for life too.

    America is a wierd place.

    Believe me, Americans find the idea that Britain's head of state is appointed for life, and hands the post over to their eldest child when they die, to be pretty weird too.
    All nations have their quirks of course, but Supreme Court Justices are so powerful, which one cannot say about the monarchy, which makes any quirks seem so much more important.
  • Foxy said:

    Quincel said:

    Hmm, I vaguely like the 5/6 against. 538 had an article a couple of weeks back which pointed out that the GOP likely need to confirm before the midterms or not at all, so any delay to his candidature would be fatal. If such a delay was likely the party might just ditch him quickly so they can fit someone else in time. The new accusers make that likely.

    On the other hand the GOP is pretty resistant to accusations of sexual assault these days, so I'm tempted but not betting atm.

    It is astonishing that such an important Constitutional position is being chosen this way, with an appountment for life too.

    America is a wierd place.

    The judges of our supreme court also have life tenure.
  • Foxy said:

    Quincel said:

    Hmm, I vaguely like the 5/6 against. 538 had an article a couple of weeks back which pointed out that the GOP likely need to confirm before the midterms or not at all, so any delay to his candidature would be fatal. If such a delay was likely the party might just ditch him quickly so they can fit someone else in time. The new accusers make that likely.

    On the other hand the GOP is pretty resistant to accusations of sexual assault these days, so I'm tempted but not betting atm.

    It is astonishing that such an important Constitutional position is being chosen this way, with an appountment for life too.

    America is a wierd place.

    The nominee has been nominated by “wee mushroom man” someone who took Bill Clinton’s accusers to the Presidential debates. Maybe it wouldn’t be such a weird place if both democrats and republicans behaved like respectful adults as they conduct the necessary business.
  • I may have misheard, but Peston, I think, just said on ITV news, that 2nd referendum is now 50:50.

    Wow.
  • I may have misheard, but Peston, I think, just said on ITV news, that 2nd referendum is now 50:50.

    Wow.

    Peston is not very good though is he other than thinking he is
  • I may have misheard, but Peston, I think, just said on ITV news, that 2nd referendum is now 50:50.

    Wow.

    Wow. I can’t believe it.

    Peston still being allowed to talk about politics on TV, I mean.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574

    Foxy said:

    Quincel said:

    Hmm, I vaguely like the 5/6 against. 538 had an article a couple of weeks back which pointed out that the GOP likely need to confirm before the midterms or not at all, so any delay to his candidature would be fatal. If such a delay was likely the party might just ditch him quickly so they can fit someone else in time. The new accusers make that likely.

    On the other hand the GOP is pretty resistant to accusations of sexual assault these days, so I'm tempted but not betting atm.

    It is astonishing that such an important Constitutional position is being chosen this way, with an appountment for life too.

    America is a wierd place.

    The judges of our supreme court also have life tenure.
    Do you know or care who they are ?
    I’m guessing not one elector in a hundred does.

    That, and their respective powers, are the difference.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068
    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
  • As she has been toast ever since the GE I doubt she has two weeks but just gets on being grown up while everyone else throws their toys out with the pram
  • Foxy said:

    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
    She appears to be the most stubborn person, since stubbornness was invented.

    Truly I am beginning to think her Cabinet needs to depose her.
  • Foxy said:

    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
    None of us know what she is pushing.

    Why not wait and see, it is only a few weeks to the October summit
  • Or, May is a political genius, who will keep on stubbornly ranting about Chequers until 1st March and then announce she has an A50 extension agreement and there will be a 2nd vote.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574

    Technically don't the Republicans need 50/100 to get him confirmed? As Vice President Pence has the casting vote in the event of a tie?

    In other words one GOP Senator not going with the White House wouldn't be enough, it would take two to prevent him being approved.

    Correct. Two GOP Senators would have to flip
    Could it drag on for months and the senate change?
    Highly unlikely.
    The Republican leadership is determined to bring this to vote of the full Senate pretty quickly:
    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/408161-gop-mounts-counter-offensive-on-kavanaugh

    The nomination either gets pulled, or forced to a vote within a couple of weeks at most, I think.
  • Foxy said:

    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
    None of us know what she is pushing.

    Why not wait and see, it is only a few weeks to the October summit
    We all know what she is pushing. The same nonsense she has pushed since she belatedly took a stance.
  • Foxy said:

    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
    She appears to be the most stubborn person, since stubbornness was invented.

    Truly I am beginning to think her Cabinet needs to depose her.
    The October summit is in three weeks. How would pushing her help anyone.

    Someone else will face the same impasse, same numbers, and same issues
  • As she has been toast ever since the GE I doubt she has two weeks but just gets on being grown up while everyone else throws their toys out with the pram
    Don't your accept that her brittle nature, her complete lank of ability to compromise or even see another point of view is now a major issue for the UK?
  • I may have misheard, but Peston, I think, just said on ITV news, that 2nd referendum is now 50:50.

    Wow.

    Whatever the chances of a second referendum, they are worse tonight than they were two days ago.

    The bottom line is that Corbyn/McDonnell/McClusky et al have succeeded in manipulating their Conference agenda so that the resolution that will go forward in response to over 100 resolutions demanding a referendum will in fact commit Labour to do absolutely nothing. Corbyn's hands are not tied, as he feared they might be, because he has managed to retain absolute control over the Conference agenda.

    Everything else is just fluff.
  • Or, May is a political genius, who will keep on stubbornly ranting about Chequers until 1st March and then announce she has an A50 extension agreement and there will be a 2nd vote.

    Remember so long as her cabinet holds she may well take this to the wire
  • Foxy said:

    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
    She appears to be the most stubborn person, since stubbornness was invented.

    Truly I am beginning to think her Cabinet needs to depose her.
    The October summit is in three weeks. How would pushing her help anyone.

    Someone else will face the same impasse, same numbers, and same issues
    Honestly, I am no longer sure. The impasse is her own creation. Her red lines. Her unbending. Her faith in a tiny group of advisors.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068

    Foxy said:

    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
    None of us know what she is pushing.

    Why not wait and see, it is only a few weeks to the October summit
    The article says she is still pushing Chequers.

    Is Chequers just tired and shagged out after a long skwark?
  • Or, May is a political genius, who will keep on stubbornly ranting about Chequers until 1st March and then announce she has an A50 extension agreement and there will be a 2nd vote.

    Remember so long as her cabinet holds she may well take this to the wire
    I don't want to go to the wire. My spare room is already 1/4 full of stockpiled food. But my partner's medicines are harder to stockpile.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836

    Or, May is a political genius, who will keep on stubbornly ranting about Chequers until 1st March and then announce she has an A50 extension agreement and there will be a 2nd vote.

    She is not a political genius.
  • As she has been toast ever since the GE I doubt she has two weeks but just gets on being grown up while everyone else throws their toys out with the pram
    Don't your accept that her brittle nature, her complete lank of ability to compromise or even see another point of view is now a major issue for the UK?
    It could be but it may not be. She is an enigma who could just achieve the breakthrough.

    Who and how would anyone else take over now
  • Foxy said:

    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
    She appears to be the most stubborn person, since stubbornness was invented.

    Truly I am beginning to think her Cabinet needs to depose her.
    The October summit is in three weeks. How would pushing her help anyone.

    Someone else will face the same impasse, same numbers, and same issues
    Good! We need someone else to do so because May is constitutionally incapable of resolving the impasse. She's had two years to do so already, what's going to change in the next two weeks?
  • I may have misheard, but Peston, I think, just said on ITV news, that 2nd referendum is now 50:50.

    Wow.

    Whatever the chances of a second referendum, they are worse tonight than they were two days ago.

    The bottom line is that Corbyn/McDonnell/McClusky et al have succeeded in manipulating their Conference agenda so that the resolution that will go forward in response to over 100 resolutions demanding a referendum will in fact commit Labour to do absolutely nothing. Corbyn's hands are not tied, as he feared they might be, because he has managed to retain absolute control over the Conference agenda.

    Everything else is just fluff.
    But he is playing with fire. How angry will the kids be if they f up on this one?
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
    None of us know what she is pushing.

    Why not wait and see, it is only a few weeks to the October summit
    The article says she is still pushing Chequers.

    Is Chequers just tired and shagged out after a long skwark?
    The problem is how much we take journalists at their word .

    I like everyone has no idea of the real position
  • As she has been toast ever since the GE I doubt she has two weeks but just gets on being grown up while everyone else throws their toys out with the pram
    Don't your accept that her brittle nature, her complete lank of ability to compromise or even see another point of view is now a major issue for the UK?
    It could be but it may not be. She is an enigma who could just achieve the breakthrough.

    Who and how would anyone else take over now
    Hunt.

    No one else comes close at the moment.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068

    As she has been toast ever since the GE I doubt she has two weeks but just gets on being grown up while everyone else throws their toys out with the pram
    Don't your accept that her brittle nature, her complete lank of ability to compromise or even see another point of view is now a major issue for the UK?
    It could be but it may not be. She is an enigma who could just achieve the breakthrough.

    Who and how would anyone else take over now
    Hunt.

    No one else comes close at the moment.
    Hunt is quite good at backing down while pretending not to. He could be the right person for the job.
  • Foxy said:

    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
    She appears to be the most stubborn person, since stubbornness was invented.

    Truly I am beginning to think her Cabinet needs to depose her.
    The October summit is in three weeks. How would pushing her help anyone.

    Someone else will face the same impasse, same numbers, and same issues
    Good! We need someone else to do so because May is constitutionally incapable of resolving the impasse. She's had two years to do so already, what's going to change in the next two weeks?
    Who and how
  • I may have misheard, but Peston, I think, just said on ITV news, that 2nd referendum is now 50:50.

    Wow.

    Whatever the chances of a second referendum, they are worse tonight than they were two days ago.

    The bottom line is that Corbyn/McDonnell/McClusky et al have succeeded in manipulating their Conference agenda so that the resolution that will go forward in response to over 100 resolutions demanding a referendum will in fact commit Labour to do absolutely nothing. Corbyn's hands are not tied, as he feared they might be, because he has managed to retain absolute control over the Conference agenda.

    Everything else is just fluff.
    But he is playing with fire. How angry will the kids be if they f up on this one?
    Very angry I am sure. But in the meantime Brexit day will come and go before the consequences of that have a chance of playing out.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    Foxy said:

    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
    She appears to be the most stubborn person, since stubbornness was invented.

    Truly I am beginning to think her Cabinet needs to depose her.
    The October summit is in three weeks. How would pushing her help anyone.

    Someone else will face the same impasse, same numbers, and same issues
    Good! We need someone else to do so because May is constitutionally incapable of resolving the impasse. She's had two years to do so already, what's going to change in the next two weeks?
    Not the leadership of the Tory party, that's for sure - that would take at least two months.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited September 2018
    Angela Rayner being interviewed on Newsnight.

    She's good, though I'm sure the PBTories will be sneering at her accent and her supposed "lack of intelligence" as I type. Not sure who I'd vote for if it's a Thornberry vs Rayner contest for this new female Deputy position.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    I may have misheard, but Peston, I think, just said on ITV news, that 2nd referendum is now 50:50.

    Wow.

    Despite the practical difficulties that remain in getting one agreed, I can see one happening, but even assuming he felt pushed to make an estimate of how likely it would be I don't see how in the hell he has decided 50:50 are the chances, and it sounds like something plucked completely from thin air, particularly we still don't have a major party definitively committing to one yet, or what form it would take even if they did.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
    None of us know what she is pushing.

    Why not wait and see, it is only a few weeks to the October summit
    The article says she is still pushing Chequers.

    Is Chequers just tired and shagged out after a long skwark?
    The problem is how much we take journalists at their word .

    I like everyone has no idea of the real position
    That's a fair comment. Still no harm in a bit of speculation amongst friends, is there? :smile:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    I may have misheard, but Peston, I think, just said on ITV news, that 2nd referendum is now 50:50.

    Wow.

    Whatever the chances of a second referendum, they are worse tonight than they were two days ago.

    The bottom line is that Corbyn/McDonnell/McClusky et al have succeeded in manipulating their Conference agenda so that the resolution that will go forward in response to over 100 resolutions demanding a referendum will in fact commit Labour to do absolutely nothing. Corbyn's hands are not tied, as he feared they might be, because he has managed to retain absolute control over the Conference agenda.

    Everything else is just fluff.
    But he is playing with fire. How angry will the kids be if they f up on this one?
    Very angry I am sure. But in the meantime Brexit day will come and go before the consequences of that have a chance of playing out.
    Quite so. He's played this whole affair pretty well, in contrast to silly errors in other areas.
  • Foxy said:

    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
    She appears to be the most stubborn person, since stubbornness was invented.

    Truly I am beginning to think her Cabinet needs to depose her.
    The October summit is in three weeks. How would pushing her help anyone.

    Someone else will face the same impasse, same numbers, and same issues
    Good! We need someone else to do so because May is constitutionally incapable of resolving the impasse. She's had two years to do so already, what's going to change in the next two weeks?
    Not the leadership of the Tory party, that's for sure - that would take at least two months.
    Not necessarily. IDS was replaced in days.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    kle4 said:

    I may have misheard, but Peston, I think, just said on ITV news, that 2nd referendum is now 50:50.

    Wow.

    Despite the practical difficulties that remain in getting one agreed, I can see one happening, but even assuming he felt pushed to make an estimate of how likely it would be I don't see how in the hell he has decided 50:50 are the chances, and it sounds like something plucked completely from thin air, particularly we still don't have a major party definitively committing to one yet, or what form it would take even if they did.
    True but he can never be wrong, guessing 50:50, can he?
  • Foxy said:

    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
    She appears to be the most stubborn person, since stubbornness was invented.

    Truly I am beginning to think her Cabinet needs to depose her.
    The October summit is in three weeks. How would pushing her help anyone.

    Someone else will face the same impasse, same numbers, and same issues
    Good! We need someone else to do so because May is constitutionally incapable of resolving the impasse. She's had two years to do so already, what's going to change in the next two weeks?
    Not the leadership of the Tory party, that's for sure - that would take at least two months.
    Not necessarily. IDS was replaced in days.
    The conservative mps are so split on an alternative with 5 female conservatives saying they will resign if Boris becomes leader.

    It is not going to happen
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574
    Looking as though it’s possible (only possible) that Rosenstein might not be fired after all:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/24/rosenstein-expects-to-be-fired-after-report-he-discussed-taping-trump-837688

    There’s some suggestion that the NYT ‘wire’ story was leaked by Kelly, who also seems to be the guy who is said to have accepted Rosenstein’s ‘verbal resignation’ (a story subsequently denied).
    Of course Trump can always blame the ‘failing New York Times’ as a get out.

    Makes our own administration look almost.... functional.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    kle4 said:

    I may have misheard, but Peston, I think, just said on ITV news, that 2nd referendum is now 50:50.

    Wow.

    Despite the practical difficulties that remain in getting one agreed, I can see one happening, but even assuming he felt pushed to make an estimate of how likely it would be I don't see how in the hell he has decided 50:50 are the chances, and it sounds like something plucked completely from thin air, particularly we still don't have a major party definitively committing to one yet, or what form it would take even if they did.
    True but he can never be wrong, guessing 50:50, can he?
    He should have the guts to call it at least somewhat more definitive than 50:50, even 60:40 - it's not as though if he is wrong it will hinder him any, being wrong doesn't stop pundits, commentators and reporters from getting work.
  • Foxy said:

    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
    She appears to be the most stubborn person, since stubbornness was invented.

    Truly I am beginning to think her Cabinet needs to depose her.
    The October summit is in three weeks. How would pushing her help anyone.

    Someone else will face the same impasse, same numbers, and same issues
    Good! We need someone else to do so because May is constitutionally incapable of resolving the impasse. She's had two years to do so already, what's going to change in the next two weeks?
    The impression she is giving is that of a headless chicken utterly out of her depth, still running around in circles because she cannot conceive of anything else to do.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Foxy said:

    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
    She appears to be the most stubborn person, since stubbornness was invented.

    Truly I am beginning to think her Cabinet needs to depose her.
    The October summit is in three weeks. How would pushing her help anyone.

    Someone else will face the same impasse, same numbers, and same issues
    Good! We need someone else to do so because May is constitutionally incapable of resolving the impasse. She's had two years to do so already, what's going to change in the next two weeks?
    Not the leadership of the Tory party, that's for sure - that would take at least two months.
    Not necessarily. IDS was replaced in days.
    The conservative mps are so split on an alternative with 5 female conservatives saying they will resign if Boris becomes leader.

    Do we have names on that, or is it just 'reports' that they will?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Foxy said:

    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
    She appears to be the most stubborn person, since stubbornness was invented.

    Truly I am beginning to think her Cabinet needs to depose her.
    The October summit is in three weeks. How would pushing her help anyone.

    Someone else will face the same impasse, same numbers, and same issues
    Good! We need someone else to do so because May is constitutionally incapable of resolving the impasse. She's had two years to do so already, what's going to change in the next two weeks?
    The impression she is giving is that of a headless chicken utterly out of her depth, still running around in circles because she cannot conceive of anything else to do.
    Until the party takes steps to remove her she cannot do much beyond try to do the job in front of her. She is not up to it - though in fairness it was a bloody hard job even before she made it more difficult due to the GE - but if they don't have the guts to take action she has to keep up appearances I guess.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    Foxy said:

    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
    She appears to be the most stubborn person, since stubbornness was invented.

    Truly I am beginning to think her Cabinet needs to depose her.
    The October summit is in three weeks. How would pushing her help anyone.

    Someone else will face the same impasse, same numbers, and same issues
    Good! We need someone else to do so because May is constitutionally incapable of resolving the impasse. She's had two years to do so already, what's going to change in the next two weeks?
    Not the leadership of the Tory party, that's for sure - that would take at least two months.
    Not necessarily. IDS was replaced in days.
    For that to happen, all Tory MPs would have to coalesce around one candidate.

    Mmmm...

  • Foxy said:

    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
    Less funny than that, more like Morgan’s last days at the mirror.

    I’m going to to use this post to slip an original joke to Boris. Ya listening Johnson?
    The current cabinet is the Golgafrincham Ark B cabinet.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
    None of us know what she is pushing.

    Why not wait and see, it is only a few weeks to the October summit
    The article says she is still pushing Chequers.

    Is Chequers just tired and shagged out after a long skwark?
    The problem is how much we take journalists at their word .

    I like everyone has no idea of the real position
    That's a fair comment. Still no harm in a bit of speculation amongst friends, is there? :smile:
    PB would be very bland without it but some posters desires take over the actual reality.

    My desire is for a succesful conclusion anywhere between Norway and Canada and I am not like some who are fighting for their Brexit which may by accident end up remaining

    I really do not want to imagine the consequences of us going back with our tails between our legs .

    We just have to leave
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Foxy said:

    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
    She appears to be the most stubborn person, since stubbornness was invented.

    Truly I am beginning to think her Cabinet needs to depose her.
    The October summit is in three weeks. How would pushing her help anyone.

    Someone else will face the same impasse, same numbers, and same issues
    Good! We need someone else to do so because May is constitutionally incapable of resolving the impasse. She's had two years to do so already, what's going to change in the next two weeks?
    Not the leadership of the Tory party, that's for sure - that would take at least two months.
    Not necessarily. IDS was replaced in days.
    For that to happen, all Tory MPs would have to coalesce around one candidate.

    Mmmm...

    Indeed - I cannot envisage a scenario in which Boris does not push this through to the members. Ok, I never say him not standing last time coming either, but he's been on maneuvers ever since and how could he live with himself if he doesn't try for the job. And it's not like he could accept some interim leader either, since if a caretaker candidate does well there would be a clamour for that person to take over, even if they had said for sure they would not stick around.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Tories ought to be very concerned that they're 2 points behind Corbyn's Labour with the new Opinium poll this evening.
  • Foxy said:

    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
    She appears to be the most stubborn person, since stubbornness was invented.

    Truly I am beginning to think her Cabinet needs to depose her.
    The October summit is in three weeks. How would pushing her help anyone.

    Someone else will face the same impasse, same numbers, and same issues
    Good! We need someone else to do so because May is constitutionally incapable of resolving the impasse. She's had two years to do so already, what's going to change in the next two weeks?
    Who and how
    Someone viewed by their MP colleagues with respect (grudging or otherwise) who could carry on negotiations at a critical moment.

    Hunt or Raab would probably be front-runners at the moment. Could take on smoothly from where things are.

    Davis outside bet.

    Javid would be my favourite but less likely in this scenario.

    Boris, JRM etc simply not going to happen.
  • Foxy said:

    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
    She appears to be the most stubborn person, since stubbornness was invented.

    Truly I am beginning to think her Cabinet needs to depose her.
    The October summit is in three weeks. How would pushing her help anyone.

    Someone else will face the same impasse, same numbers, and same issues
    Good! We need someone else to do so because May is constitutionally incapable of resolving the impasse. She's had two years to do so already, what's going to change in the next two weeks?
    Not the leadership of the Tory party, that's for sure - that would take at least two months.
    Not necessarily. IDS was replaced in days.
    For that to happen, all Tory MPs would have to coalesce around one candidate.

    Mmmm...

    No they wouldn't, even if it was contested they'd have to coalesce around two and then have the runner-up withdraw.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
    She appears to be the most stubborn person, since stubbornness was invented.

    Truly I am beginning to think her Cabinet needs to depose her.
    The October summit is in three weeks. How would pushing her help anyone.

    Someone else will face the same impasse, same numbers, and same issues
    Good! We need someone else to do so because May is constitutionally incapable of resolving the impasse. She's had two years to do so already, what's going to change in the next two weeks?
    Not the leadership of the Tory party, that's for sure - that would take at least two months.
    Not necessarily. IDS was replaced in days.
    The conservative mps are so split on an alternative with 5 female conservatives saying they will resign if Boris becomes leader.

    Do we have names on that, or is it just 'reports' that they will?
    Heidi Allen has stated that she would quit a Boris led party.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6129505/Tory-MP-Heidi-Allen-threatens-QUIT-Boris-Johnson-leader.html
  • kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
    She appears to be the most stubborn person, since stubbornness was invented.

    Truly I am beginning to think her Cabinet needs to depose her.
    The October summit is in three weeks. How would pushing her help anyone.

    Someone else will face the same impasse, same numbers, and same issues
    Good! We need someone else to do so because May is constitutionally incapable of resolving the impasse. She's had two years to do so already, what's going to change in the next two weeks?
    Not the leadership of the Tory party, that's for sure - that would take at least two months.
    Not necessarily. IDS was replaced in days.
    The conservative mps are so split on an alternative with 5 female conservatives saying they will resign if Boris becomes leader.

    Do we have names on that, or is it just 'reports' that they will?
    Soubry, Wollaston, Heidi Allen and two others have been mentioned
  • kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
    She appears to be the most stubborn person, since stubbornness was invented.

    Truly I am beginning to think her Cabinet needs to depose her.
    The October summit is in three weeks. How would pushing her help anyone.

    Someone else will face the same impasse, same numbers, and same issues
    Good! We need someone else to do so because May is constitutionally incapable of resolving the impasse. She's had two years to do so already, what's going to change in the next two weeks?
    Not the leadership of the Tory party, that's for sure - that would take at least two months.
    Not necessarily. IDS was replaced in days.
    For that to happen, all Tory MPs would have to coalesce around one candidate.

    Mmmm...

    Indeed - I cannot envisage a scenario in which Boris does not push this through to the members. Ok, I never say him not standing last time coming either, but he's been on maneuvers ever since and how could he live with himself if he doesn't try for the job. And it's not like he could accept some interim leader either, since if a caretaker candidate does well there would be a clamour for that person to take over, even if they had said for sure they would not stick around.
    Scenario is he doesn't come in the top 2. I don't think MPs would put him into the top 2 in any scenario but certainly not this scenario.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    kle4 said:

    I may have misheard, but Peston, I think, just said on ITV news, that 2nd referendum is now 50:50.

    Wow.

    Despite the practical difficulties that remain in getting one agreed, I can see one happening, but even assuming he felt pushed to make an estimate of how likely it would be I don't see how in the hell he has decided 50:50 are the chances, and it sounds like something plucked completely from thin air, particularly we still don't have a major party definitively committing to one yet, or what form it would take even if they did.
    I don't suppose he's aiming at anything other than making it sound a tense situation ... a cliff-hanger, to try to get (or keep) people interested.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I may have misheard, but Peston, I think, just said on ITV news, that 2nd referendum is now 50:50.

    Wow.

    Despite the practical difficulties that remain in getting one agreed, I can see one happening, but even assuming he felt pushed to make an estimate of how likely it would be I don't see how in the hell he has decided 50:50 are the chances, and it sounds like something plucked completely from thin air, particularly we still don't have a major party definitively committing to one yet, or what form it would take even if they did.
    True but he can never be wrong, guessing 50:50, can he?
    He should have the guts to call it at least somewhat more definitive than 50:50, even 60:40 - it's not as though if he is wrong it will hinder him any, being wrong doesn't stop pundits, commentators and reporters from getting work.
    Being pedantic, if he calls it 60:40 in favour of a 2nd ref and it doesn't happen, he's not wrong - it's just that his forecast 40% chance occurred. He can only truly be wrong if he called it 100%* one way or another and it went the other way.

    (*Or strictly, if he called it some other mix of percentages and neither of the two outcomes ensued - which seems logically impossible.)
  • AndyJS said:

    The Tories ought to be very concerned that they're 2 points behind Corbyn's Labour with the new Opinium poll this evening.

    The 2 points went to UKIP which in this atmosphere is not surprising
  • Foxy said:

    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
    She appears to be the most stubborn person, since stubbornness was invented.

    Truly I am beginning to think her Cabinet needs to depose her.
    The October summit is in three weeks. How would pushing her help anyone.

    Someone else will face the same impasse, same numbers, and same issues
    Good! We need someone else to do so because May is constitutionally incapable of resolving the impasse. She's had two years to do so already, what's going to change in the next two weeks?
    Who and how
    Someone viewed by their MP colleagues with respect (grudging or otherwise) who could carry on negotiations at a critical moment.

    Hunt or Raab would probably be front-runners at the moment. Could take on smoothly from where things are.

    Davis outside bet.

    Javid would be my favourite but less likely in this scenario.

    Boris, JRM etc simply not going to happen.
    I am sympathetic but TM has to lose a vnoc for it even to be a starter. She cannot be hooked off as some would want
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
    She appears to be the most stubborn person, since stubbornness was invented.

    Truly I am beginning to think her Cabinet needs to depose her.
    The October summit is in three weeks. How would pushing her help anyone.

    Someone else will face the same impasse, same numbers, and same issues
    Good! We need someone else to do so because May is constitutionally incapable of resolving the impasse. She's had two years to do so already, what's going to change in the next two weeks?
    Not the leadership of the Tory party, that's for sure - that would take at least two months.
    Not necessarily. IDS was replaced in days.
    For that to happen, all Tory MPs would have to coalesce around one candidate.

    Mmmm...

    Indeed - I cannot envisage a scenario in which Boris does not push this through to the members. Ok, I never say him not standing last time coming either, but he's been on maneuvers ever since and how could he live with himself if he doesn't try for the job. And it's not like he could accept some interim leader either, since if a caretaker candidate does well there would be a clamour for that person to take over, even if they had said for sure they would not stick around.
    Scenario is he doesn't come in the top 2. I don't think MPs would put him into the top 2 in any scenario but certainly not this scenario.
    Even if (pleasae God) he doesn't come in the top two, there would still be a top two to put to Big_G, Mrs. Big_G and the other members, so it would be months not weeks.

    Not a great time to be deposing May is it?
  • AndyJS said:

    The Tories ought to be very concerned that they're 2 points behind Corbyn's Labour with the new Opinium poll this evening.

    The 2 points went to UKIP which in this atmosphere is not surprising
    And Corbin trailed in both the approval ratings from Opinium and the best PM ones.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I may have misheard, but Peston, I think, just said on ITV news, that 2nd referendum is now 50:50.

    Wow.

    Despite the practical difficulties that remain in getting one agreed, I can see one happening, but even assuming he felt pushed to make an estimate of how likely it would be I don't see how in the hell he has decided 50:50 are the chances, and it sounds like something plucked completely from thin air, particularly we still don't have a major party definitively committing to one yet, or what form it would take even if they did.
    True but he can never be wrong, guessing 50:50, can he?
    He should have the guts to call it at least somewhat more definitive than 50:50, even 60:40 - it's not as though if he is wrong it will hinder him any, being wrong doesn't stop pundits, commentators and reporters from getting work.
    Being pedantic, if he calls it 60:40 in favour of a 2nd ref and it doesn't happen, he's not wrong - it's just that his forecast 40% chance occurred. He can only truly be wrong if he called it 100%* one way or another and it went the other way.

    (*Or strictly, if he called it some other mix of percentages and neither of the two outcomes ensued - which seems logically impossible.)
    Pedantry? On PB?! I never thought I'd live to see the day such a venerable institution came to such a pass.


    Scenario is he doesn't come in the top 2. I don't think MPs would put him into the top 2 in any scenario but certainly not this scenario.

    I'll amend - I cannot envisage a situation where he does not attempt to push this through to the members.

    But even besides Boris, I struggle to see the rest coalescing around one person and persuading the second placed to stand down. Sure, there's not really time for that nonsense right now, but there hasn't been for awhile and it hasn't stopped constant speculation.
  • I may have misheard, but Peston, I think, just said on ITV news, that 2nd referendum is now 50:50.

    Wow.

    Whatever the chances of a second referendum, they are worse tonight than they were two days ago.

    The bottom line is that Corbyn/McDonnell/McClusky et al have succeeded in manipulating their Conference agenda so that the resolution that will go forward in response to over 100 resolutions demanding a referendum will in fact commit Labour to do absolutely nothing. Corbyn's hands are not tied, as he feared they might be, because he has managed to retain absolute control over the Conference agenda.

    Everything else is just fluff.
    Totally disagree with you. Labours closet Brexiteers at the top have taken one hell of a whipping. Unlike you who is just sounding off, I’ve got evidence on my side: look how It’s annoyed them, they doing poor job hiding it! :) tomorrow’s going to be more painful for them still!

    McCluck and McDon both have old fashioned Bennite view of Britain and Europe, and this Labour Rally has smoked it out the closet. My understanding is the labour party, labour movement, and supporters of the party in the country are now decisively not just for soft ‘Jobs Brexit’ but for remain, so the Bennites need to watch their tongue, on Tuesday their party overwhelmingly endorses a motion keeping open option of 2nd ref with no words excluded from that ballot, so far today McDon has been on message, went off message, ending up back on it, his defeat on this composite getting overwhelmingly passed by his democratic conference clearly rankling with the ageing Trot

    May should say, keep your shirt on and I’ll keep the water taps on :)
  • kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
    She appears to be the most stubborn person, since stubbornness was invented.

    Truly I am beginning to think her Cabinet needs to depose her.
    The October summit is in three weeks. How would pushing her help anyone.

    Someone else will face the same impasse, same numbers, and same issues
    Good! We need someone else to do so because May is constitutionally incapable of resolving the impasse. She's had two years to do so already, what's going to change in the next two weeks?
    Not the leadership of the Tory party, that's for sure - that would take at least two months.
    Not necessarily. IDS was replaced in days.
    For that to happen, all Tory MPs would have to coalesce around one candidate.

    Mmmm...

    Indeed - I cannot envisage a scenario in which Boris does not push this through to the members. Ok, I never say him not standing last time coming either, but he's been on maneuvers ever since and how could he live with himself if he doesn't try for the job. And it's not like he could accept some interim leader either, since if a caretaker candidate does well there would be a clamour for that person to take over, even if they had said for sure they would not stick around.
    Scenario is he doesn't come in the top 2. I don't think MPs would put him into the top 2 in any scenario but certainly not this scenario.
    Even if (pleasae God) he doesn't come in the top two, there would still be a top two to put to Big_G, Mrs. Big_G and the other members, so it would be months not weeks.

    Not a great time to be deposing May is it?
    Leadsom showed that can be short-circuited. If a new leader is needed in a hurry the runner-up could pull out of the race and Leadsom shows the race is then over it doesn't mean third place goes to the members.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited September 2018
    1) Hasn't this already been announced?

    2) How can he promise Labour will do any specific thing when he and McDonnell are apparently still saying different things about what options they would keep open?

    Starmer seems a smart operator, and Labour's Brexit positioning under him has not been tactically dumb, but from what I gather it really is just:

    1) Vote down anything the government may or may not come back with

    2) Do something after that

    3) Labour will be in power somehow
  • Foxy said:

    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
    She appears to be the most stubborn person, since stubbornness was invented.

    Truly I am beginning to think her Cabinet needs to depose her.
    The October summit is in three weeks. How would pushing her help anyone.

    Someone else will face the same impasse, same numbers, and same issues
    Good! We need someone else to do so because May is constitutionally incapable of resolving the impasse. She's had two years to do so already, what's going to change in the next two weeks?
    Not the leadership of the Tory party, that's for sure - that would take at least two months.
    Not necessarily. IDS was replaced in days.
    For that to happen, all Tory MPs would have to coalesce around one candidate.

    Mmmm...

    No they wouldn't, even if it was contested they'd have to coalesce around two and then have the runner-up withdraw.
    That is an election requiring a vnoc and then the leadership process. There is not one candidate to unite the party. Indeed in a real election I could see 6-8 candidates
  • The six tests, of which the concept is nicked from Brown frankly, can only be failed.
  • I may have misheard, but Peston, I think, just said on ITV news, that 2nd referendum is now 50:50.

    Wow.

    Whatever the chances of a second referendum, they are worse tonight than they were two days ago.

    The bottom line is that Corbyn/McDonnell/McClusky et al have succeeded in manipulating their Conference agenda so that the resolution that will go forward in response to over 100 resolutions demanding a referendum will in fact commit Labour to do absolutely nothing. Corbyn's hands are not tied, as he feared they might be, because he has managed to retain absolute control over the Conference agenda.

    Everything else is just fluff.
    Totally disagree with you. Labours closet Brexiteers at the top have taken one hell of a whipping. Unlike you who is just sounding off, I’ve got evidence on my side: look how It’s annoyed them, they doing poor job hiding it! :) tomorrow’s going to be more painful for them still!

    McCluck and McDon both have old fashioned Bennite view of Britain and Europe, and this Labour Rally has smoked it out the closet. My understanding is the labour party, labour movement, and supporters of the party in the country are now decisively not just for soft ‘Jobs Brexit’ but for remain, so the Bennites need to watch their tongue, on Tuesday their party overwhelmingly endorses a motion keeping open option of 2nd ref with no words excluded from that ballot, so far today McDon has been on message, went off message, ending up back on it, his defeat on this composite getting overwhelmingly passed by his democratic conference clearly rankling with the ageing Trot

    May should say, keep your shirt on and I’ll keep the water taps on :)
    Tell you what else I think. Anyone who came out for Remain last time, now saying they are leave, got to respect Democracy, just get on and get good deal, I wouldn’t trust them at all with a secret ballot and remain on the paper - it’s the dream of all those people to kill Brexit. I include Hammond and Hunt in that. But not May or Corbyn, they both declared for remain but could have done much more in the campaign. I think they are both in same place, not happy being in EU but wouldn’t take us out of customs union if they could get away with it.
  • Times: "Hold your nerve says May"

    i.e. be as stupidly stubborn as I am.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068

    I may have misheard, but Peston, I think, just said on ITV news, that 2nd referendum is now 50:50.

    Wow.

    Whatever the chances of a second referendum, they are worse tonight than they were two days ago.

    The bottom line is that Corbyn/McDonnell/McClusky et al have succeeded in manipulating their Conference agenda so that the resolution that will go forward in response to over 100 resolutions demanding a referendum will in fact commit Labour to do absolutely nothing. Corbyn's hands are not tied, as he feared they might be, because he has managed to retain absolute control over the Conference agenda.

    Everything else is just fluff.
    Totally disagree with you. Labours closet Brexiteers at the top have taken one hell of a whipping. Unlike you who is just sounding off, I’ve got evidence on my side: look how It’s annoyed them, they doing poor job hiding it! :) tomorrow’s going to be more painful for them still!

    McCluck and McDon both have old fashioned Bennite view of Britain and Europe, and this Labour Rally has smoked it out the closet. My understanding is the labour party, labour movement, and supporters of the party in the country are now decisively not just for soft ‘Jobs Brexit’ but for remain, so the Bennites need to watch their tongue, on Tuesday their party overwhelmingly endorses a motion keeping open option of 2nd ref with no words excluded from that ballot, so far today McDon has been on message, went off message, ending up back on it, his defeat on this composite getting overwhelmingly passed by his democratic conference clearly rankling with the ageing Trot

    May should say, keep your shirt on and I’ll keep the water taps on :)
    Yes, clearly the composite does not rule out a #peoplesvote including Remain. It is a significant defeat for the leadership. They were astute enough to soften it rather than lose a fight over it.

    It looks to me that Labour are managing their conference well.
  • kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
    She appears to be the most stubborn person, since stubbornness was invented.

    Truly I am beginning to think her Cabinet needs to depose her.
    The October summit is in three weeks. How would pushing her help anyone.

    Someone else will face the same impasse, same numbers, and same issues
    Good! We need someone else to do so because May is constitutionally incapable of resolving the impasse. She's had two years to do so already, what's going to change in the next two weeks?
    Not the leadership of the Tory party, that's for sure - that would take at least two months.
    Not necessarily. IDS was replaced in days.
    For that to happen, all Tory MPs would have to coalesce around one candidate.

    Mmmm...

    Indeed - I cannot envisage a scenario in which Boris does not push this through to the members. Ok, I never say him not standing last time coming either, but he's been on maneuvers ever since and how could he live with himself if he doesn't try for the job. And it's not like he could accept some interim leader either, since if a caretaker candidate does well there would be a clamour for that person to take over, even if they had said for sure they would not stick around.
    Scenario is he doesn't come in the top 2. I don't think MPs would put him into the top 2 in any scenario but certainly not this scenario.
    Even if (pleasae God) he doesn't come in the top two, there would still be a top two to put to Big_G, Mrs. Big_G and the other members, so it would be months not weeks.

    Not a great time to be deposing May is it?
    And we know Mr & Mrs Big G will never vote Boris
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I may have misheard, but Peston, I think, just said on ITV news, that 2nd referendum is now 50:50.

    Wow.

    Despite the practical difficulties that remain in getting one agreed, I can see one happening, but even assuming he felt pushed to make an estimate of how likely it would be I don't see how in the hell he has decided 50:50 are the chances, and it sounds like something plucked completely from thin air, particularly we still don't have a major party definitively committing to one yet, or what form it would take even if they did.
    True but he can never be wrong, guessing 50:50, can he?
    He should have the guts to call it at least somewhat more definitive than 50:50, even 60:40 - it's not as though if he is wrong it will hinder him any, being wrong doesn't stop pundits, commentators and reporters from getting work.
    Being pedantic, if he calls it 60:40 in favour of a 2nd ref and it doesn't happen, he's not wrong - it's just that his forecast 40% chance occurred. He can only truly be wrong if he called it 100%* one way or another and it went the other way.

    (*Or strictly, if he called it some other mix of percentages and neither of the two outcomes ensued - which seems logically impossible.)
    Pedantry? On PB?! I never thought I'd live to see the day such a venerable institution came to such a pass.


    Scenario is he doesn't come in the top 2. I don't think MPs would put him into the top 2 in any scenario but certainly not this scenario.

    I'll amend - I cannot envisage a situation where he does not attempt to push this through to the members.

    But even besides Boris, I struggle to see the rest coalescing around one person and persuading the second placed to stand down. Sure, there's not really time for that nonsense right now, but there hasn't been for awhile and it hasn't stopped constant speculation.
    If May goes then it will be because she has had to dump Chequers, in which case the only possible coronation candidate is the man who first resigned over Chequers, David Davis on the basis of leading the push for a Canada type deal
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    The six tests, of which the concept is nicked from Brown frankly, can only be failed.
    I'm so glad with Corbyn the party is so unlike the old establishment politician days, all carefully worded statements, obfuscations, promising different things to different people and cynical tactics in the pursuit of winning office. It's a good thing those days are over; NewOldLabour are so different to OldNewLabour.
  • kle4 said:

    The six tests, of which the concept is nicked from Brown frankly, can only be failed.
    I'm so glad with Corbyn the party is so unlike the old establishment politician days, all carefully worded statements, obfuscations, promising different things to different people and cynical tactics in the pursuit of winning office. It's a good thing those days are over; NewOldLabour are so different to OldNewLabour.
    :+1:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I may have misheard, but Peston, I think, just said on ITV news, that 2nd referendum is now 50:50.

    Wow.

    Despite the practical difficulties that remain in getting one agreed, I can see one happening, but even assuming he felt pushed to make an estimate of how likely it would be I don't see how in the hell he has decided 50:50 are the chances, and it sounds like something plucked completely from thin air, particularly we still don't have a major party definitively committing to one yet, or what form it would take even if they did.
    True but he can never be wrong, guessing 50:50, can he?
    He should have the guts to call it at least somewhat more definitive than 50:50, even 60:40 - it's not as though if he is wrong it will hinder him any, being wrong doesn't stop pundits, commentators and reporters from getting work.
    Being pedantic, if he calls it 60:40 in favour of a 2nd ref and it doesn't happen, he's not wrong - it's just that his forecast 40% chance occurred. He can only truly be wrong if he called it 100%* one way or another and it went the other way.

    (*Or strictly, if he called it some other mix of percentages and neither of the two outcomes ensued - which seems logically impossible.)
    Pedantry? On PB?! I never thought I'd live to see the day such a venerable institution came to such a pass.


    Scenario is he doesn't come in the top 2. I don't think MPs would put him into the top 2 in any scenario but certainly not this scenario.

    I'll amend - I cannot envisage a situation where he does not attempt to push this through to the members.

    But even besides Boris, I struggle to see the rest coalescing around one person and persuading the second placed to stand down. Sure, there's not really time for that nonsense right now, but there hasn't been for awhile and it hasn't stopped constant speculation.
    If May goes then it will be because she has had to dump Chequers, in which case the only possible coronation candidate is the man who first resigned over Chequers, David Davis on the basis of leading the push for a Canada type deal
    What a dreadful thought. You're probably right, and better than Boris.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Danny565 said:

    Angela Rayner being interviewed on Newsnight.

    She's good, though I'm sure the PBTories will be sneering at her accent and her supposed "lack of intelligence" as I type. Not sure who I'd vote for if it's a Thornberry vs Rayner contest for this new female Deputy position.

    At a time in which nearly 50% of young people are expected to go to university, is it really sneering to expect the same of the woman who is put forward by Labour to be responsible for education in England?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    AndyJS said:

    The Tories ought to be very concerned that they're 2 points behind Corbyn's Labour with the new Opinium poll this evening.

    To be fair, the fieldwork on that one ended before May's "show us respect" speech. We need to wait for some more polls to see if that moved the dial at all.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068

    The six tests, of which the concept is nicked from Brown frankly, can only be failed.
    Of course. That is their purpose, to justify voting against whatever May proposes.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836
    edited September 2018

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7337763/theresa-may-chequers-plan-two-week-progress-window/

    How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?

    Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.

    She appears to be the most stubborn person, since stubbornness was invented.

    Truly I am beginning to think her Cabinet needs to depose her.

    The October summit is in three weeks. How would pushing her help anyone.

    Someone else will face the same impasse, same numbers, and same issues

    Good! We need someone else to do so because May is constitutionally incapable of resolving the impasse. She's had two years to do so already, what's going to change in the next two weeks?

    Not the leadership of the Tory party, that's for sure - that would take at least two months.

    Not necessarily. IDS was replaced in days.

    For that to happen, all Tory MPs would have to coalesce around one candidate.

    Mmmm...



    Indeed - I cannot envisage a scenario in which Boris does not push this through to the members. Ok, I never say him not standing last time coming either, but he's been on maneuvers ever since and how could he live with himself if he doesn't try for the job. And it's not like he could accept some interim leader either, since if a caretaker candidate does well there would be a clamour for that person to take over, even if they had said for sure they would not stick around.

    Scenario is he doesn't come in the top 2. I don't think MPs would put him into the top 2 in any scenario but certainly not this scenario.

    Even if (pleasae God) he doesn't come in the top two, there would still be a top two to put to Big_G, Mrs. Big_G and the other members, so it would be months not weeks.

    Not a great time to be deposing May is it?

    Leadsom showed that can be short-circuited. If a new leader is needed in a hurry the runner-up could pull out of the race and Leadsom shows the race is then over it doesn't mean third place goes to the members.

    dixiedean:

    Politically, though, that won't wash. It would just be another can kicking. The Tory Party is divided. Finding a compromise candidate would not be a compromise, just identifying an individual who is least offensive to both wings.
    They tried it once with May.
    They remained divided. At some stage, a head count as to where everyone stands needs to happen, before any forward motion. The losers would have to decide their next move.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574
    “I know that people want clarity on where we stand...”
    Well they must be bloody disappointed, then.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I may have misheard, but Peston, I think, just said on ITV news, that 2nd referendum is now 50:50.

    Wow.

    Despite the practical difficulties that remain in getting one agreed, I can see one happening, but even assuming he felt pushed to make an estimate of how likely it would be I don't see how in the hell he has decided 50:50 are the chances, and it sounds like something plucked completely from thin air, particularly we still don't have a major party definitively committing to one yet, or what form it would take even if they did.
    True but he can never be wrong, guessing 50:50, can he?
    He should have the guts to call it at least somewhat more definitive than 50:50, even 60:40 - it's not as though if he is wrong it will hinder him any, being wrong doesn't stop pundits, commentators and reporters from getting work.
    Being pedantic, if he calls it 60:40 in favour of a 2nd ref and it doesn't happen, he's not wrong - it's just that his forecast 40% chance occurred. He can only truly be wrong if he called it 100%* one way or another and it went the other way.

    (*Or strictly, if he called it some other mix of percentages and neither of the two outcomes ensued - which seems logically impossible.)
    Pedantry? On PB?! I never thought I'd live to see the day such a venerable institution came to such a pass.


    Scenario is he doesn't come in the top 2. I don't think MPs would put him into the top 2 in any scenario but certainly not this scenario.

    I'll amend - I cannot envisage a situation where he does not attempt to push this through to the members.

    But even besides Boris, I struggle to see the rest coalescing around one person and persuading the second placed to stand down. Sure, there's not really time for that nonsense right now, but there hasn't been for awhile and it hasn't stopped constant speculation.
    If May goes then it will be because she has had to dump Chequers, in which case the only possible coronation candidate is the man who first resigned over Chequers, David Davis on the basis of leading the push for a Canada type deal
    What a dreadful thought. You're probably right, and better than Boris.
    Davis is also the only candidate bar Boris or Mogg the Tory membership would accept being given a coronation now
  • HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I may have misheard, but Peston, I think, just said on ITV news, that 2nd referendum is now 50:50.

    Wow.

    Despite the practical difficulties that remain in getting one agreed, I can see one happening, but even assuming he felt pushed to make an estimate of how likely it would be I don't see how in the hell he has decided 50:50 are the chances, and it sounds like something plucked completely from thin air, particularly we still don't have a major party definitively committing to one yet, or what form it would take even if they did.
    True but he can never be wrong, guessing 50:50, can he?
    He should have the guts to call it at least somewhat more definitive than 50:50, even 60:40 - it's not as though if he is wrong it will hinder him any, being wrong doesn't stop pundits, commentators and reporters from getting work.
    Being pedantic, if he calls it 60:40 in favour of a 2nd ref and it doesn't happen, he's not wrong - it's just that his forecast 40% chance occurred. He can only truly be wrong if he called it 100%* one way or another and it went the other way.

    (*Or strictly, if he called it some other mix of percentages and neither of the two outcomes ensued - which seems logically impossible.)
    Pedantry? On PB?! I never thought I'd live to see the day such a venerable institution came to such a pass.


    Scenario is he doesn't come in the top 2. I don't think MPs would put him into the top 2 in any scenario but certainly not this scenario.

    I'll amend - I cannot envisage a situation where he does not attempt to push this through to the members.

    But even besides Boris, I struggle to see the rest coalescing around one person and persuading the second placed to stand down. Sure, there's not really time for that nonsense right now, but there hasn't been for awhile and it hasn't stopped constant speculation.
    If May goes then it will be because she has had to dump Chequers, in which case the only possible coronation candidate is the man who first resigned over Chequers, David Davis on the basis of leading the push for a Canada type deal
    He failed - he had his chance and is just not the future. The only one in the frame is Hunt but I cannot see it hapening
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Foxy said:

    The six tests, of which the concept is nicked from Brown frankly, can only be failed.
    Of course. That is their purpose, to justify voting against whatever May proposes.
    That's fine as far as political tactics go, so long as the party don't expect people to believe their purpose to be anything other than that. In fairness parties are't going to care what political obsessives think about it so long as it plays ok, and its been used before because it gives the veneer of reasonableness to whatever side chooses to use that particular tactic, but it is pretty blatant.
  • I may have misheard, but Peston, I think, just said on ITV news, that 2nd referendum is now 50:50.

    Wow.

    What did he call it? You call it 2nd ref, anyone saying people’s vote out themselves as Remainiacs Bent on killing Brexit. Is called The Peoples Vote and is the brain child of Remainers who think they can kill Brexit with a Remain v Crash out or Remain v Canada+backstop referendum. And they are right, if it gets that far they will kill Brexit. I think Brexiteers have been too laissez-faire towards People Vote momentum, need a call to arms for danger of a re run. Lie down in front lamy and Greenings tanks so they’re not parked on the Brexit lawns. Brexit has lots of lawns, where the grass is always greener, just as we remember it.

    In theory a peoples vote could be any old rubbish. Trinary question and battle between real and fantasy options, but if it ever did firm up n practice it would need to be binary and meaningful. Ref2 can only be binary, for example three options, May deal, crash out and remain could all garner 30%ish each deciding nothing. It also needs to be meaningful eg if result of Mays toil is Canada+ backstop, a crash out v Canda+backstop vote would be a farce. The wording of the 2nd ref cannot be written today. Labour Moderates would call for it to be worded not by politicians, but by the electorate, and if Labour Moderates get away with that Brexit will be in trouble.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I may have misheard, but Peston, I think, just said on ITV news, that 2nd referendum is now 50:50.

    Wow.

    Despite the practical difficulties that remain in getting one agreed, I can see one happening, but even assuming he felt pushed to make an estimate of how likely it would be I don't see how in the hell he has decided 50:50 are the chances, and it sounds like something plucked completely from thin air, particularly we still don't have a major party definitively committing to one yet, or what form it would take even if they did.
    True but he can never be wrong, guessing 50:50, can he?
    He should have the guts to call it at least somewhat more definitive than 50:50, even 60:40 - it's not as though if he is wrong it will hinder him any, being wrong doesn't stop pundits, commentators and reporters from getting work.
    Being pedantic, if he calls it 60:40 in favour of a 2nd ref and it doesn't happen, he's not wrong - it's just that his forecast 40% chance occurred. He can only truly be wrong if he called it 100%* one way or another and it went the other way.

    (*Or strictly, if he called it some other mix of percentages and neither of the two outcomes ensued - which seems logically impossible.)
    Pedantry? On PB?! I never thought I'd live to see the day such a venerable institution came to such a pass.


    Scenario is he doesn't come in the top 2. I don't think MPs would put him into the top 2 in any scenario but certainly not this scenario.

    I'll amend - I cannot envisage a situation where he does not attempt to push this through to the members.

    But even besides Boris, I struggle to see the rest coalescing around one person and persuading the second placed to stand down. Sure, there's not really time for that nonsense right now, but there hasn't been for awhile and it hasn't stopped constant speculation.
    If May goes then it will be because she has had to dump Chequers, in which case the only possible coronation candidate is the man who first resigned over Chequers, David Davis on the basis of leading the push for a Canada type deal
    What a dreadful thought. You're probably right, and better than Boris.
    Davis is also the only candidate bar Boris or Mogg the Tory membership would accept being given a coronation now
    Would the wider electorate?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Foxy said:

    The six tests, of which the concept is nicked from Brown frankly, can only be failed.
    Of course. That is their purpose, to justify voting against whatever May proposes.
    And it also ensures they will avoid getting any blame for a bad Brexit outcome, especially as they will probably propose indefinitely delaying Brexit until a deal is negotiated.

    "We would honour the Brexit vote, we just wouldn't have done it like the Tories did it" is definitely the sweet-spot political position in terms of appealing to Leave and Remain voters at the next election, even if it's not very principled.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I may have misheard, but Peston, I think, just said on ITV news, that 2nd referendum is now 50:50.

    Wow.

    Despite the practical difficulties that remain in getting one agreed, I can see one happening, but even assuming he felt pushed to make an estimate of how likely it would be I don't see how in the hell he has decided 50:50 are the chances, and it sounds like something plucked completely from thin air, particularly we still don't have a major party definitively committing to one yet, or what form it would take even if they did.
    True but he can never be wrong, guessing 50:50, can he?
    He should haveorters from getting work.
    Being pely impossible.)
    Pedantry? On PB?! I never thought I'd live to see the day such a venerable institution came to such a pass.


    Scenario is he doesn't come in the top 2. I don't think MPs would put him into the top 2 in any scenario but certainly not this scenario.

    I'll amend - I cannot envisage a situation where he does not attempt to push this through to the members.

    But even besides Boris, I struggle to see the rest coalescing around one person and persuading the second placed to stand down. Sure, there's not really time for that nonsense right now, but there hasn't been for awhile and it hasn't stopped constant speculation.
    If May goes then it will be because she has had to dump Chequers, in which case the only possible coronation candidate is the man who first resigned over Chequers, David Davis on the basis of leading the push for a Canada type deal
    What a dreadful thought. You're probably right, and better than Boris.
    Davis is also the only candidate bar Boris or Mogg the Tory membership would accept being given a coronation now
    If it is to be a coronation the membership don't need to accept it, enough MPs to get something, anything, through the Commons would need to accept it. While the members turning against Chequers was presumably a factor in many MPs being opposed to it as well, someone appointed now to get a damn deal already would presumably do so on the basis that their plan secured MP support in order to be appointed, and the party would tough it out, and if the members don't like it or that person, there would be time later to ditch them.

    Once you ditch once you probably start developing a taste for it.
  • HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I may have misheard, but Peston, I think, just said on ITV news, that 2nd referendum is now 50:50.

    Wow.

    Despite the practical difficulties that remain in getting one agreed, I can see one happening, but even assuming he felt pushed to make an estimate of how likely it would be I don't see how in the hell he has decided 50:50 are the chances, and it sounds like something plucked completely from thin air, particularly we still don't have a major party definitively committing to one yet, or what form it would take even if they did.
    True but he can never be wrong, guessing 50:50, can he?
    He should have the guts to call it at least somewhat more definitive than 50:50, even 60:40 - it's not as though if he is wrong it will hinder him any, being wrong doesn't stop pundits, commentators and reporters from getting work.
    Being pedantic, if he calls it 60:40 in favour of a 2nd ref and it doesn't happen, he's not wrong - it's just that his forecast 40% chance occurred. He can only truly be wrong if he called it 100%* one way or another and it went the other way.

    (*Or strictly, if he called it some other mix of percentages and neither of the two outcomes ensued - which seems logically impossible.)
    Pedantry? On PB?! I never thought I'd live to see the day such a venerable institution came to such a pass.


    Scenario is he doesn't come in the top 2. I don't think MPs would put him into the top 2 in any scenario but certainly not this scenario.

    I'll amend - I cannot envisage a situation where he does not attempt to push this through to the members.

    But even besides Boris, I struggle to see the rest coalescing around one person and persuading the second placed to stand down. Sure, there's not really time for that nonsense right now, but there hasn't been for awhile and it hasn't stopped constant speculation.
    If May goes then it will be because she has had to dump Chequers, in which case the only possible coronation candidate is the man who first resigned over Chequers, David Davis on the basis of leading the push for a Canada type deal
    What a dreadful thought. You're probably right, and better than Boris.
    Davis is also the only candidate bar Boris or Mogg the Tory membership would accept being given a coronation now
    He will have the same effect with the left of the party and he is not acceptable

    For the party to survive it has to be May or Hunt
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    RoyalBlue said:

    Danny565 said:

    Angela Rayner being interviewed on Newsnight.

    She's good, though I'm sure the PBTories will be sneering at her accent and her supposed "lack of intelligence" as I type. Not sure who I'd vote for if it's a Thornberry vs Rayner contest for this new female Deputy position.

    At a time in which nearly 50% of young people are expected to go to university, is it really sneering to expect the same of the woman who is put forward by Labour to be responsible for education in England?
    Good grief RoyalBlue, you really do come across as a parody of a crusty old Tunbridge Wells Tory at times.

    Yes it is sneering to expect Labour (or any party) to only select graduates for ministerial positions.
This discussion has been closed.