Categories
Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The harsh truth is that the next General Election is in May 20
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The harsh truth is that the next General Election is in May 2022 and only the Tories have the power to hold it earlier
Ever since June 9th last year politics has been going through rather a strange phase. The biggest losing party, LAB, acted as though it was the winner and the main winning party, CON, acted as though it had lost.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Oh, and First!
With that being the Brexit date and May likely to go at that point with her replacement wanting a little time to bed in before going to the country that probably adds at least another year or so.
I wouldn't be surprised to have to wait until 2021 for an election if not going full term to 2022.
» show previous quotes
The Tory administration post 2015 is a different administration to the LibDem-Tory coalition 2010-2015. The latter, whilst flawed, is several leagues ahead of this dire administration. I would rank most governments post-1945 above this one. The coalition was mid-tier.
So how much has this Government got the deficit down to in the past 3 years? What is the current unemployment rate?? And yet you think this is the worst governnment since 1945? Look around at this country, it is booming, compare it to the late 1970s, do you think the Callaghan Government begging the IMF for money was a more competent Government?
An excellent thread on ideas and the future, to follow up my point from last night. In this case a former MP says Labour haven't got ideas for the future:
https://twitter.com/JamieFonzarelli/status/1045068119088271361
I do believe Canada +++ is dead following last nights declaration by the DUP that they reject ERG's proposition and of course this mornings news of how Trump has sabotaged the WTO and its ability to arbitrate delivered the coup d'etat
I would suggest there is now a Parliamentary majority for Norway ++ and maybe TM is running down the clock to the point there is no time left to either take the deal or yes, I agree a second referendum ( as long as it is called that) may well be on the table.
Amber Rudd of course is fighting for her seat and may have other reasons for calling for a second referendum but no deal and WTO seems increasingly unlikely.
And my apologises to WilliamGlenn for debunking his notion on a second referendum, he may be right and when I am wrong I do like to say so
"Give us what we want or we'll try and make the whole country go on strike."
A VoNC in the Government requires either the DUP to vote against (not just abstain) or seven Conservative defectors to cross the floor and most likely lose their seats in the process. In either case there’s a two week period for another Conservative leader to try and reconcile the rebels before an election happens.
A number of government losses in by-elections could also lead to problems later in the cycle, but that’s not an immediate problem.
Do remember that the DUP have rejected outright the Chequers plan because it involves an NI backstop and they have always been opposed to Norway. The only plan they ever supported was an FTA, mainly of course because they want regulations to diverge with ROI because it makes it harder to get a united Ireland later.
You are over-reading this.
So we get to an impasse. Government in office but not in power. Unable to do a deal, unable NOT to do a deal (even in its most defiant rhetoric, the government know that no deal is the end of them). So we need to reframe and go bigger. A General Election or a Referendum on No Deal.
In ordinary times these options absolutely would not happen. But these are desperate times...
So on topic, would the DUP threat to derail any deal and crash out be sufficient for May to call an election for a mandate for whatever deal she had agreed (this time) with the EU?
TM has the backing of her cabinet and the DUP rejects ERG proposals.
The WTO are in disarray following Trump's idiotic interventions.
Labour are indicating they could back a deal that prevents no deal
The mood music is shifting but I believe TM deal will be accepted by the HOC but if not anything could happen
The ERG account for not more than 50 diehards and that is dwarfed by the other 600
The only thing that could change matters is a second referendum but at present the path to that is unclear, However, it must now have a chance one way or the other
My dear late Father used to say the more you see of people the more you like your dog
I do not know why any man is quoted. Not a chance in this climate
She and Andrew Neil should anchor election night coverage.
It is not the DUP's fault we are in this mess - that lies with Theresa May who went down the backstop road so she could get her good headlines in December without apparently having any idea that the DUP would reject it or that it would be impossible to deliver.
Katie Hopkins and Owen Jones, now that would be fun
Kirsty Wark has left Desert Island Discs because of illness so not sure that she’s up to it. Can’t stand Emily Maitlis - she cannot ask a succint pointed question to save her life.
No of course not; no one would care or notice if there is a different widget regulatory authorisation system in NI vs GB.
An election - called solely because the government has ceased to function and cannot get any Brexit measure through the Commons - really is the nuclear option. What would be the position of the parties on Brexit that they would be asking for a mandate to deliver? Would the Tories pledge to try and force through a Chequers deal already rejected by the EU? Would Labour pledge to try and force through a Norway + CU deal? Would anyone care what the LibDems pledge? Would Farage once again become leader of UKIP?
An election in the next few months - in the winter, with the chaos detailed above - should not be the plan. Is not the plan. But may be the least worst option if no deal is possible with the current make up of the Commons.
Otherwise abortion would be a terrible example since the Republic is legalising abortion if NI were forced to be in lockstep with the Republic (which is what the fuss over the backstop is all about) then NI would be getting forced into a change now.
The only way is to specifically ask the electorate about Brexit is a second referendum. How we get there goodness only knows
But as I have said, I think it is no more than a 20-30% chance.
Far more likely is that the UK as a whole stays in the SM.
This is an absurd situation and will never happen. The solution to NI is, and always has been, a soft border between NI and ROI based on maxfac.
John, Labour is ready.
We're ready to rebuild Britain for the many, not the few.
We're ready to make vital changes for millions of parents and children – providing free universal high-quality childcare. We're ready to give peace of mind and dignity to the older generation – protecting pensions, winter-fuel allowances and bus passes. We're ready to deliver a Green Industrial Revolution that will create jobs, tackle climate change and provide sustainable energy for the future.
We're ready because of people like you, John
As I said today, not a penny of our funds comes from dodgy donors or shady businessmen's clubs, it comes from hundreds of thousands of people like you.
Today we met in Liverpool as a Party ready to lead. Next year let us meet as a Labour government. A government finally investing in Britain after years of dereliction, bringing our society together after a decade of division.
A strong society is one that gives all our young people the chance to realise their potential and in which all of us know if our parents need care they will get it.
Our task is to build that Britain and together we can ...............
Jeremy
There are solutions available to fix this problem - which the government have ruled out. They will fall with no deal. They will fall agreeing EEA+CU. They will fall begging for an extension and "can we stay please". But those are the options, all unpalatable if you are a Tory because all of them see the fall of the government. Hence the various batshit options around a virtual border patrolled by drones, imposing Brexit on ROI, dividing NI from GB etc etc.
Which brings me back to why there will have to be either an election or a referendum. Because however impossible these are, if the alternative is the fall of the government then the government may find the unpalatable better than the undeliverable...
Why they are looking at political interviewers baffles me.
I'm not sure her name and don't know if she still does it as haven't watched it for a while (or since it changed name) but the woman who co-hosted Daily Politics with Andrew Neil was very good at that. Facilitated the discussions well, could ask some interesting questions but overall continued the discussions going well without dominating like Neil (whom I greatly respect) would.
I think Andrew Neil is the BBC's best interviewer but he'd be wasted on Question Time. He should better replace Marr as hosting interviews than moderating discussions.
We voted for us to be in control of our own laws and their own nation as approximately 170 countries globally are. That absolutely can be created.
We were fully warned by your side that there would be costs but made the decision to be in control anyway. You don't get to repeat "ah but there's costs" now when that was explicitly made clear by the government of the day and everyone your side of the debate at the time.
An eye witness told Irish state broadcaster RTÉ that the man was "quite determined" to make his flight, adding that he ran towards the plane "with his suitcase under his arm".
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45663321
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1045262705966436352
And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead
Labour's policies on nationalisation are popular; but the top line figures still show a Conservative lead. It's similar to the problem the Conservatives had under Blair.
The poll also shows a big majority against a second referendum.
We were fully warned by your side that there would be costs but made the decision to be in control anyway. You don't get to repeat "ah but there's costs" now when that was explicitly made clear by the government of the day and everyone your side of the debate at the time.
Obviously, there are going to be costs. There were costs when we joined the EU, so there are bound to be costs when we leave it.
Unless we propose to simply photocopy the 1,634 pages of the deal (painstakingly and carefully optimised for the Canada-EU specific comparable strengths and weaknesses through many years of compromise and discussions), we'd have to accept several years (a decade +?) of a transition period where we literally do simply Brexit in name only, but without any say at all. Not just the 20-30% of the EU acquis applicable to EEA countries, not with the institutions and shaping capability of the EEA structure - literally all the acquis with no influence.
And where would the incentive be for the EU to complete negotiations, ratification, and application in any sensible timescale? By 2025, or 2030, or whenever the deal is finally ratified, God only knows what circumstances will be here.
I was right about her being very sharp, though.
The problem we have is that a phalanx of senior Conservatives are determined to bring about crash Brexit and reshape the UK economy so that they/their friends can profit from the debacle. That crash Brexit poses no risk and all the collected experts / industry leaders are lying is their mantra and is one happily peddled by allied newspapers.
Which is how we get to voters who face personal severe difficulties from crash Brexit angrily insisting is HAS to happen because they believe that black is white. One of two things happens - we crash out, their world implodes and we get massive social unrest, or we don't crash out, they get angrier and find that a hard nationalist party takes up its place as the 3rd party of British politics.
I quite fancy the idea of a crash-out, no-deal Brexit - just to see how the ERG et al justify the shambles. It may be the only way to burn out the ultra-nationalist infection in the Tory party.
1) The referral to the ECJ on whether A50 can be revoked by the UK - will really set the cat among the pigeons if so.
2) The poll on preferred outcomes quoted by Guido with a useful pie chart: https://order-order.com/2018/09/25/chequers-remain-crushed-new-poll/
Forget Guido's spin for the moment - I'm struck that there's no option scoring higher than 22% The country is fundamentally splintered on how to proceed, and no shock at all that parliament doesn't look like having a majority for anything. Also makes me wonder how a General Election would help - the parties couldn't cover this range if they tried. Maybe we need a 6 option AV-referendum to help us out?
I also can't help thinking that Labour have done what the Tories wanted them to on Brexit this week. Both looking like they are backsliding so the Tories can paint themselves as the only true champions of Brexit, but also keeping the door open to a way out via a 2nd referendum, if the Tories need an emergency escape.