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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With polls showing a sharply contrasting picture let’s look at

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited September 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With polls showing a sharply contrasting picture let’s look at the trend in real election with real voters

For all the talk of Labour advancing and the Conservatives getting stuck in the quagmire that is Brexit, the fact that in the third quarter of 2018 in the local by-elections there’s been such a tiny swing from Con to Lab really does show that the Westminster bubble is just that, a bubble.

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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited September 2018
    First...as in me in the queue for Lidl bargains for Christmas lunch....
  • Foreign property buyers will face an extra tax with the money raised being spent on tackling rough sleeping, Prime Minister Theresa May has said.

    She said foreign buyers could face a surcharge of 1% or 3% on top of stamp duty to stop them driving up UK prices.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45698446
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Another Douglas!
  • First...as in me in the queue for Lidl bargains for Christmas lunch....

    Final result 17.5 - 10.5 - is that a problem for you
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Norren sinks Urquhart !
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956

    Foreign property buyers will face an extra tax with the money raised being spent on tackling rough sleeping, Prime Minister Theresa May has said.

    She said foreign buyers could face a surcharge of 1% or 3% on top of stamp duty to stop them driving up UK prices.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45698446

    Tinkering at the margins as far as the wider property market goes. Still, at least the proceeds might do some good.
  • Golf - the only "sport" more boring than Test Cricket :lol:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Golf - the only "sport" more boring than Test Cricket :lol:

    Tebbit chip malfunctioning?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited September 2018

    Golf - the only "sport" more boring than Test Cricket :lol:

    Maybe having played both sports I would agree participation overcomes boredom (cricket not test cricket - I was not that good)
  • Foreign property buyers will face an extra tax with the money raised being spent on tackling rough sleeping, Prime Minister Theresa May has said.

    She said foreign buyers could face a surcharge of 1% or 3% on top of stamp duty to stop them driving up UK prices.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45698446

    How does that work then? How does it stop foreigners driving up prices? It's just another tax. Even if we assume price sensitivity (doubtful) it will be swamped by exchange rate movements. Though I suppose we should applaud action on rough sleepers.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Essexit said:

    Foreign property buyers will face an extra tax with the money raised being spent on tackling rough sleeping, Prime Minister Theresa May has said.

    She said foreign buyers could face a surcharge of 1% or 3% on top of stamp duty to stop them driving up UK prices.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45698446

    Tinkering at the margins as far as the wider property market goes. Still, at least the proceeds might do some good.
    Yes provide more support to those sleeping rough because they got barred from their local council run shelter for bringing in smack and booze.
  • RobD said:

    Golf - the only "sport" more boring than Test Cricket :lol:

    Tebbit chip malfunctioning?
    It's "Europe" not England playing ;)
  • Just a thought. Whose last conference is this

    May or Boris

    Or neither
  • Foreign property buyers will face an extra tax with the money raised being spent on tackling rough sleeping, Prime Minister Theresa May has said.

    She said foreign buyers could face a surcharge of 1% or 3% on top of stamp duty to stop them driving up UK prices.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45698446

    How does that work then? How does it stop foreigners driving up prices? It's just another tax. Even if we assume price sensitivity (doubtful) it will be swamped by exchange rate movements. Though I suppose we should applaud action on rough sleepers.
    All taxes affect actions and prices.

    All things being equal the sale will go to whoever pays the most, but the purchaser needs to factor in any taxes. If for a property the foreign purchaser is willing to pay £400k for example then a domestic purchaser needs to also pay more than £400k to buy the property. If they were only prepared to pay £390k they'd lose the house.

    But if there's a 3% tax then a £400k house comes with £12k surcharge. The foreign purchaser could only afford now £388k plus surcharge. The domestic purchaser who is prepared to pay the £390k is now offering the most and gets the house.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547

    HYUFD said:

    Overall 40% of all UK voters back a hard Brexit and no deal without full control over borders, laws and trade deals, 31% want a second referendum on whether to go ahead with Brexit once we know its terms and 17% of voters want a compromise deal with the EU that honours the referendum result but ensure trade continues smoothly with the EU even if following a common set of rules and regulations set by the EU making the latter the key swing voters.

    Those who want a compromise deal with the EU are a plurality amongst Tory Remain voters while hard Brexiteers make up a majority of Tory and Labour Leave voters and those who want a second referendum make up a majority of Labour Remain voters

    Who are those 17% going to blame, if no compromise deal can be done with the EU? If they split 12:5 to accepting we had no alternative than Hard Brexit, then we have the same % accepting Hard Brexit as voted for Brexit in the Referendum......
    If we compromise there will be a deal. The question is the wrong way round. It should be: under what circumstances will we compromise and accept something worse than we had before?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited September 2018
    I am surprised at the extent and co-ordination of the attacks on Boris especially as this is day one

    He is not at the conference but is going to appear at a side event on tuesday.

    He may find by then he is the object of great ridicule, even more so than now
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited September 2018
    On current polls the LDs could well hold the balance of power at the next general election along with the SNP, so their local election performance may not be without consequences at Westminster
  • Out of curiosity could anyone list the taxes and major business related laws that are already different between NI and Eire?
  • I am surprised at the extent and co-ordination of the attacks on Boris especially as this is day one

    He is not at the conference but is going to appear at a side event on tuesday.

    He may find by then he is the object of great ridicule, even more so than now

    Possibly the biggest charlatan in UK politics since Horatio Bottomley. And done far more damage.
  • FF43 said:
    My wife and I enjoyed a visit to RY Britannia in Edinburgh last month and it was very interesting. It is so dated and quite small but with lots of history.

    The Brexiteers delight in nostalgia. Times have moved on
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,037
    FF43 said:
    ..and this Tory dim-wit beat Ed Balls. No wonder politics is broken - it's now full of pea-brained navel gazing fools!
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    HYUFD said:

    On current polls the LDs could well hold the balance of power at the next general election along with the SNP, so their local election performance may not be without consequences at Westminster

    Yes - including the four latest polls gives an EMA of:

    Com 38.7% 300 seats
    Lab 38.1% 271 seats
    LD 9.8% 17 seats
    UKIP 5.2% 0 seats
    Green 2.6% 1 seat
    SNP 40 seats
    PC 3 seats
    NI 18 seats

    Tories 26 short of a majority.


  • FF43 said:
    My wife and I enjoyed a visit to RY Britannia in Edinburgh last month and it was very interesting. It is so dated and quite small but with lots of history.

    The Brexiteers delight in nostalgia. Times have moved on
    Well we could kit out one of the Trident replacement boats as a royal yacht. It would give foreign trade trips a bit more leverage. It would make King Charles III disappear for a few months at a time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited September 2018
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    On current polls the LDs could well hold the balance of power at the next general election along with the SNP, so their local election performance may not be without consequences at Westminster

    Yes - including the four latest polls gives an EMA of:

    Com 38.7% 300 seats
    Lab 38.1% 271 seats
    LD 9.8% 17 seats
    UKIP 5.2% 0 seats
    Green 2.6% 1 seat
    SNP 40 seats
    PC 3 seats
    NI 18 seats

    Tories 26 short of a majority.


    So with 326 needed for a majority and Tories +DUP on 310 and Labour +SNP + Green + PC on 315 seats the LDs on 17 would indeed hold the balance of power
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    edited September 2018

    FF43 said:
    My wife and I enjoyed a visit to RY Britannia in Edinburgh last month and it was very interesting. It is so dated and quite small but with lots of history.

    The Brexiteers delight in nostalgia. Times have moved on
    Even as a Brexiteer I thought the Royal Yacht thing was a weird distraction until I visited Britannia last year. It'd be lovely to have another, the cost would be chicken feed in public spending terms.

    P.S. It would rile up all the right people, so there's a bonus argument in favour.
  • FF43 said:
    My wife and I enjoyed a visit to RY Britannia in Edinburgh last month and it was very interesting. It is so dated and quite small but with lots of history.

    The Brexiteers delight in nostalgia. Times have moved on
    Presumably a modern Britannia wouldn't be dated.
  • FF43 said:
    My wife and I enjoyed a visit to RY Britannia in Edinburgh last month and it was very interesting. It is so dated and quite small but with lots of history.

    The Brexiteers delight in nostalgia. Times have moved on
    Presumably a modern Britannia wouldn't be dated.
    It is hardly a priority but I have no problem with a RY but it would have to be built in a British shipyard and be available to the Prime Minister and business leaders not just royality
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956

    FF43 said:
    My wife and I enjoyed a visit to RY Britannia in Edinburgh last month and it was very interesting. It is so dated and quite small but with lots of history.

    The Brexiteers delight in nostalgia. Times have moved on
    Presumably a modern Britannia wouldn't be dated.
    It could and should showcase British engineering and would whisk the Royal Family and ministers around in style and at speed.
  • FF43 said:
    My wife and I enjoyed a visit to RY Britannia in Edinburgh last month and it was very interesting. It is so dated and quite small but with lots of history.

    The Brexiteers delight in nostalgia. Times have moved on
    Presumably a modern Britannia wouldn't be dated.
    It is hardly a priority but I have no problem with a RY but it would have to be built in a British shipyard and be available to the Prime Minister and business leaders not just royality
    I would expect it would almost exclusively be used by ministers and business leaders not the royalty. That I thought was the whole point, to wine and dine global business contacts to win business for Britain.
  • Why, despite their good performance in local by-elections, are the Lib Dems missing in action at Westminster?
    Vince.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,037

    Golf - the only "sport" more boring than Test Cricket :lol:

    Test Cricket is quite simply the best sport known to man!

    Was there when Alistair Cook got that hundred at the Oval - amazing atmosphere...
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    murali_s said:

    Golf - the only "sport" more boring than Test Cricket :lol:

    Test Cricket is quite simply the best sport known to man!

    Was there when Alistair Cook got that hundred at the Oval - amazing atmosphere...
    +1
    I was there
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited September 2018



    Vince.

    Not just Vince.

    They have nothing to say except Brexit and the people who voted for it are wrong.
  • murali_s said:

    Golf - the only "sport" more boring than Test Cricket :lol:

    Test Cricket is quite simply the best sport known to man!

    Was there when Alistair Cook got that hundred at the Oval - amazing atmosphere...
    At last, something I can actually agree with you on!


  • Vince.

    Not just Vince.

    They have nothing to say except Brexit and the people who voted for it are wrong.
    And the left-inclined metropolitans who deserted Labour for the Lib Dems after Iraq have gone back to Labour. The coalition may yet prove to have been terminal for them.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,037

    murali_s said:

    Golf - the only "sport" more boring than Test Cricket :lol:

    Test Cricket is quite simply the best sport known to man!

    Was there when Alistair Cook got that hundred at the Oval - amazing atmosphere...
    At last, something I can actually agree with you on!
    +1 - Cricket unites, politics divides!
  • murali_s said:

    Golf - the only "sport" more boring than Test Cricket :lol:

    Test Cricket is quite simply the best sport known to man!

    Was there when Alistair Cook got that hundred at the Oval - amazing atmosphere...
    You mean people woke up from their comas? ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712



    Vince.

    Not just Vince.

    They have nothing to say except Brexit and the people who voted for it are wrong.
    And the left-inclined metropolitans who deserted Labour for the Lib Dems after Iraq have gone back to Labour. The coalition may yet prove to have been terminal for them.
    And yet on current average polling the LDs will hold the balance of power after the next general election, neither the Tories nor Labour would be able to get any legislation through without LD support
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited September 2018
    Scott_P said:
    And their aggressive rhetoric made it easy for us to make concessions?

    And make up your minds EU leaders - did you not make concessions because her rhetoric was too aggressive, or did you not make any because it was a matter of principle?

    I'm sorry, but their comments about the rhetoric are nonsense, and the suggestion said rhetoric swayed things directly contradicts and undermines the supposed reasonableness of the EU in not conceding to make a deal, so to rely on that to suggest our tone is causing the problem has the same effect - it is to say the the EU has not been reasonable on a point of principle, but is indeed playing politics.

    Which I would understand, but it is not what the pro EU side like to claim. Do you, Scott, believe the EU simply could not concede because red lines would be crossed, or because they were upset that mean old Mrs May was rude to them? Which paints the EU in a better light?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    On current polls the LDs could well hold the balance of power at the next general election along with the SNP, so their local election performance may not be without consequences at Westminster

    Yes - including the four latest polls gives an EMA of:

    Com 38.7% 300 seats
    Lab 38.1% 271 seats
    LD 9.8% 17 seats
    UKIP 5.2% 0 seats
    Green 2.6% 1 seat
    SNP 40 seats
    PC 3 seats
    NI 18 seats

    Tories 26 short of a majority.


    So with 326 needed for a majority and Tories +DUP on 310 and Labour +SNP + Green + PC on 315 seats the LDs on 17 would indeed hold the balance of power
    DUP want to keep their role as sole kingmaker. So they'll agree to the constituency changes.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    murali_s said:

    Golf - the only "sport" more boring than Test Cricket :lol:

    Test Cricket is quite simply the best sport known to man!

    Was there when Alistair Cook got that hundred at the Oval - amazing atmosphere...
    I knew you were a good sort.
  • HYUFD said:



    Vince.

    Not just Vince.

    They have nothing to say except Brexit and the people who voted for it are wrong.
    And the left-inclined metropolitans who deserted Labour for the Lib Dems after Iraq have gone back to Labour. The coalition may yet prove to have been terminal for them.
    And yet on current average polling the LDs will hold the balance of power after the next general election, neither the Tories nor Labour would be able to get any legislation through without LD support
    Bearing in mind what happened in the 2017 campaign, not to mention the mega-crisis that is likely to break in the next few months, I doubt that today's polls are any guide to the outcome of a future general election.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    On current polls the LDs could well hold the balance of power at the next general election along with the SNP, so their local election performance may not be without consequences at Westminster

    Yes - including the four latest polls gives an EMA of:

    Com 38.7% 300 seats
    Lab 38.1% 271 seats
    LD 9.8% 17 seats
    UKIP 5.2% 0 seats
    Green 2.6% 1 seat
    SNP 40 seats
    PC 3 seats
    NI 18 seats

    Tories 26 short of a majority.


    So with 326 needed for a majority and Tories +DUP on 310 and Labour +SNP + Green + PC on 315 seats the LDs on 17 would indeed hold the balance of power
    DUP want to keep their role as sole kingmaker. So they'll agree to the constituency changes.....
    Even some Tory MPs won't, Michael Fabricant has said he will vote against the boundary changes for example and even with the boundary changes there is no guarantee on current polling it would be enough for another Tory and DUP deal let alone another Tory majority
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    HYUFD said:



    Vince.

    Not just Vince.

    They have nothing to say except Brexit and the people who voted for it are wrong.
    And the left-inclined metropolitans who deserted Labour for the Lib Dems after Iraq have gone back to Labour. The coalition may yet prove to have been terminal for them.
    And yet on current average polling the LDs will hold the balance of power after the next general election, neither the Tories nor Labour would be able to get any legislation through without LD support
    Bearing in mind what happened in the 2017 campaign, not to mention the mega-crisis that is likely to break in the next few months, I doubt that today's polls are any guide to the outcome of a future general election.
    Indeed - it's always nice to have polling, but if there's a GE soon things will be very different.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:



    Vince.

    Not just Vince.

    They have nothing to say except Brexit and the people who voted for it are wrong.
    And the left-inclined metropolitans who deserted Labour for the Lib Dems after Iraq have gone back to Labour. The coalition may yet prove to have been terminal for them.
    And yet on current average polling the LDs will hold the balance of power after the next general election, neither the Tories nor Labour would be able to get any legislation through without LD support
    Bearing in mind what happened in the 2017 campaign, not to mention the mega-crisis that is likely to break in the next few months, I doubt that today's polls are any guide to the outcome of a future general election.
    Maybe, maybe not, of course in 2010 the polls predicted the LDs would hold the balance of power and they did
  • Interesting article from Chris Leslie. It does everything to suggest that he will jump ship in 2019.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/29/mp-chris-leslie-deselection-threats-momentum-labour-party
  • I am surprised at the extent and co-ordination of the attacks on Boris especially as this is day one

    He is not at the conference but is going to appear at a side event on tuesday.

    He may find by then he is the object of great ridicule, even more so than now

    This just isn’t acheiving anything. Because Boris is right on Brexit and the cabinet look stupid defending a deal that none of them believe can actually be delivered.

    Look at Hunt today. You call him a serious politician for bashing the EU. Er - looks like an opportunist with no principles to me. He voted Remain and never showed any real sign of being a Eurosceptic. Then magically he changes his mind when Leave win. Then he backs Chequers. Now he is bashing the EU just to advance his odds in the leadership. There is really no difference between Hunt and Johnson. They are both doing what they can to take over from May.

    If Boris was such a joke, why spend all this effort on him? Because, of course, for all his faults he has been right about Brexit and the rest have been wrong.

    But take out Boris if it makes you feel better. We can then have JRM instead!
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,282
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    And their aggressive rhetoric made it easy for us to make concessions?

    And make up your minds EU leaders - did you not make concessions because her rhetoric was too aggressive, or did you not make any because it was a matter of principle?

    I'm sorry, but their comments about the rhetoric are nonsense, and the suggestion said rhetoric swayed things directly contradicts and undermines the supposed reasonableness of the EU in not conceding to make a deal, so to rely on that to suggest our tone is causing the problem has the same effect - it is to say the the EU has not been reasonable on a point of principle, but is indeed playing politics.

    Which I would understand, but it is not what the pro EU side like to claim. Do you, Scott, believe the EU simply could not concede because red lines would be crossed, or because they were upset that mean old Mrs May was rude to them? Which paints the EU in a better light?
    Here's the problem. The EU have a solid position they have had since day one. It is not good for us. It is certainly not ideal for them, but in general they believe they have to stick to it to maintain the integrity of their project. They can move a bit, but will essentially stay where they are and say Brexit is bad because it is from their perspective. It is utter lunacy. They will let us do it, but be damned if it will undermine existing institutions.

    In contrast, Brexit is based on bluster and rhetoric and promises that could only be kept if the EU essentially agreed that the EU was a terrible idea. That may be true, I disagree, but it maybe. Just don't expect the EU to agree.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited September 2018

    I am surprised at the extent and co-ordination of the attacks on Boris especially as this is day one

    He is not at the conference but is going to appear at a side event on tuesday.

    He may find by then he is the object of great ridicule, even more so than now

    This just isn’t acheiving anything. Because Boris is right on Brexit and the cabinet look stupid defending a deal that none of them believe can actually be delivered.

    Look at Hunt today. You call him a serious politician for bashing the EU. Er - looks like an opportunist with no principles to me. He voted Remain and never showed any real sign of being a Eurosceptic. Then magically he changes his mind when Leave win. Then he backs Chequers. Now he is bashing the EU just to advance his odds in the leadership. There is really no difference between Hunt and Johnson. They are both doing what they can to take over from May.

    If Boris was such a joke, why spend all this effort on him? Because, of course, for all his faults he has been right about Brexit and the rest have been wrong.

    But take out Boris if it makes you feel better. We can then have JRM instead!
    Hunt was also clear today that while Brexit must be 'just to the 52%' it must also be 'generous to the 48%'
  • I’m not sure how the Festival of Brexit is supposed to bring the country together. Once they’ve got past the innovative jams and Andrea Jenkyns has been modelled for the masthead of the new Britannia, I’m struggling to understand how the event is supposed to persuade what is now a sceptical majority that Brexit is a good idea. It sounds like reactionary claptrap to anyone who’s not completely high on the drug of Europhobia.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Someone will be along in a moment to tell you the obvious lying under oath Kavanaugh has done is irrelevant as to whether he should be a SCOTUS judge.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,766
    Regarding four day weeks.

    I think I'm right in saying a Tory Prime Minister went one better and had a mandatory three day week.

    This was a dazzling success for him, and the opposition won the subsequent...ah. I think I'm on the point of spotting a tiny flaw here...
  • HYUFD said:

    I am surprised at the extent and co-ordination of the attacks on Boris especially as this is day one

    He is not at the conference but is going to appear at a side event on tuesday.

    He may find by then he is the object of great ridicule, even more so than now

    This just isn’t acheiving anything. Because Boris is right on Brexit and the cabinet look stupid defending a deal that none of them believe can actually be delivered.

    Look at Hunt today. You call him a serious politician for bashing the EU. Er - looks like an opportunist with no principles to me. He voted Remain and never showed any real sign of being a Eurosceptic. Then magically he changes his mind when Leave win. Then he backs Chequers. Now he is bashing the EU just to advance his odds in the leadership. There is really no difference between Hunt and Johnson. They are both doing what they can to take over from May.

    If Boris was such a joke, why spend all this effort on him? Because, of course, for all his faults he has been right about Brexit and the rest have been wrong.

    But take out Boris if it makes you feel better. We can then have JRM instead!
    Hunt was also clear today that while Brexit must be 'just to the 52%' it must also be 'generous to the 48%'
    Which confirms he is totally full of it. The Tories made the same mistake when they picked May. Promising everything to everyone means you deliver nothing, Luckily Tory members will never elect Hunt - he is invisible in the polling because everyone can see straight through him.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,766
    Alistair said:

    Someone will be along in a moment to tell you the obvious lying under oath Kavanaugh has done is irrelevant as to whether he should be a SCOTUS judge.
    Well, a case could be made that as a drunk, narcissistic, untrustworthy, self-pitying cretin who has no respect for women the key concern is that he is considerably overqualified.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    MJW said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    And their aggressive rhetoric made it easy for us to make concessions?

    And make up your minds EU leaders - did you not make concessions because her rhetoric was too aggressive, or did you not make any because it was a matter of principle?

    I'm sorry, but their comments about the rhetoric are nonsense, and the suggestion said rhetoric swayed things directly contradicts and undermines the supposed reasonableness of the EU in not conceding to make a deal, so to rely on that to suggest our tone is causing the problem has the same effect - it is to say the the EU has not been reasonable on a point of principle, but is indeed playing politics.

    Which I would understand, but it is not what the pro EU side like to claim. Do you, Scott, believe the EU simply could not concede because red lines would be crossed, or because they were upset that mean old Mrs May was rude to them? Which paints the EU in a better light?
    Here's the problem. The EU have a solid position they have had since day one. It is not good for us. It is certainly not ideal for them, but in general they believe they have to stick to it to maintain the integrity of their project. They can move a bit, but will essentially stay where they are and say Brexit is bad because it is from their perspective. It is utter lunacy. They will let us do it, but be damned if it will undermine existing institutions.

    .
    You misunderstand me. I believe that to be their position, and I accept it as a principled one however inconvenient that is for us, and that only minor changes are possible as a result.

    What I don't believe are the same people telling me that the EU's position is principled and therefore not able to be moved at all simultaneously telling me the EU leaders might have bent those principles but for Mrs May presenting her case poorly.

    That is contradictory. As you say, their will essentially stay where they are. If that is so, they, and others, can stop pretending May selling her plan badly had any effect.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,037

    I am surprised at the extent and co-ordination of the attacks on Boris especially as this is day one

    He is not at the conference but is going to appear at a side event on tuesday.

    He may find by then he is the object of great ridicule, even more so than now

    This just isn’t acheiving anything. Because Boris is right on Brexit and the cabinet look stupid defending a deal that none of them believe can actually be delivered.

    Look at Hunt today. You call him a serious politician for bashing the EU. Er - looks like an opportunist with no principles to me. He voted Remain and never showed any real sign of being a Eurosceptic. Then magically he changes his mind when Leave win. Then he backs Chequers. Now he is bashing the EU just to advance his odds in the leadership. There is really no difference between Hunt and Johnson. They are both doing what they can to take over from May.

    If Boris was such a joke, why spend all this effort on him? Because, of course, for all his faults he has been right about Brexit and the rest have been wrong.

    But take out Boris if it makes you feel better. We can then have JRM instead!
    I actually agree with you on Hunt. He is the kind of disingenuous lying two-faced politician the public despise. As I said earlier, no wonder politics is broken!
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,282
    kle4 said:

    MJW said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    And their aggressive rhetoric made it easy for us to make concessions?

    And make up your minds EU leaders - did you not make concessions because her rhetoric was too aggressive, or did you not make any because it was a matter of principle?

    I'm sorry, but their comments about the rhetoric are nonsense, and the suggestion said rhetoric swayed things directly contradicts and undermines the supposed reasonableness of the EU in not conceding to make a deal, so to rely on that to suggest our tone is causing the problem has the same effect - it is to say the the EU has not been reasonable on a point of principle, but is indeed playing politics.

    Which I would understand, but it is not what the pro EU side like to claim. Do you, Scott, believe the EU simply could not concede because red lines would be crossed, or because they were upset that mean old Mrs May was rude to them? Which paints the EU in a better light?
    Here's the problem. The EU have a solid position they have had since day one. It is not good for us. It is certainly not ideal for them, but in general they believe they have to stick to it to maintain the integrity of their project. They can move a bit, but will essentially stay where they are and say Brexit is bad because it is from their perspective. It is utter lunacy. They will let us do it, but be damned if it will undermine existing institutions.

    .
    You misunderstand me. I believe that to be their position, and I accept it as a principled one however inconvenient that is for us, and that only minor changes are possible as a result.

    What I don't believe are the same people telling me that the EU's position is principled and therefore not able to be moved at all simultaneously telling me the EU leaders might have bent those principles but for Mrs May presenting her case poorly.

    That is contradictory. As you say, their will essentially stay where they are. If that is so, they, and others, can stop pretending May selling her plan badly had any effect.
    Fair would agree entirely with that. Apologies for misunderstanding. At the heart of this whole farrago is a total misunderstanding of the way the EU and world works.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Someone will be along in a moment to tell you the obvious lying under oath Kavanaugh has done is irrelevant as to whether he should be a SCOTUS judge.
    Well, a case could be made that as a drunk, narcissistic, untrustworthy, self-pitying cretin who has no respect for women the key concern is that he is considerably overqualified.
    To be honest his hysterical rant promising payback against the Democrats seems a little disqualify on its own for someone who is supposedly a neutral arbiter of the law.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,766
    edited September 2018
    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Someone will be along in a moment to tell you the obvious lying under oath Kavanaugh has done is irrelevant as to whether he should be a SCOTUS judge.
    Well, a case could be made that as a drunk, narcissistic, untrustworthy, self-pitying cretin who has no respect for women the key concern is that he is considerably overqualified.
    To be honest his hysterical rant promising payback against the Democrats seems a little disqualify on its own for someone who is supposedly a neutral arbiter of the law.
    Not the law - the constitution. There is an important difference.

    (Although I agree under normal circumstances that should have been that.)
  • I am surprised at the extent and co-ordination of the attacks on Boris especially as this is day one

    He is not at the conference but is going to appear at a side event on tuesday.

    He may find by then he is the object of great ridicule, even more so than now

    This just isn’t acheiving anything. Because Boris is right on Brexit and the cabinet look stupid defending a deal that none of them believe can actually be delivered.

    Look at Hunt today. You call him a serious politician for bashing the EU. Er - looks like an opportunist with no principles to me. He voted Remain and never showed any real sign of being a Eurosceptic. Then magically he changes his mind when Leave win. Then he backs Chequers. Now he is bashing the EU just to advance his odds in the leadership. There is really no difference between Hunt and Johnson. They are both doing what they can to take over from May.

    If Boris was such a joke, why spend all this effort on him? Because, of course, for all his faults he has been right about Brexit and the rest have been wrong.

    But take out Boris if it makes you feel better. We can then have JRM instead!
    It is not me taking out Boris. It is the senior members of the party and it is sustained.

    He is not right to threaten business and to divide the Irish sea. It is widely accepted he was an abject foreign secretary and his standing is in free fall.

    Jeremy Hunt is everything Boris is not. Measured, professional and loyal and he received wide applause in the hall for his speech.

    I was furious with the EU over Salzburg but it is clear Boris is under attack from across the party for disloyallty and self aggrandisement and he is now damagng Brexit with no deal impossible to deliver and calls for a second referendum rising by the day
  • I’m not sure how the Festival of Brexit is supposed to bring the country together. Once they’ve got past the innovative jams and Andrea Jenkyns has been modelled for the masthead of the new Britannia, I’m struggling to understand how the event is supposed to persuade what is now a sceptical majority that Brexit is a good idea. It sounds like reactionary claptrap to anyone who’s not completely high on the drug of Europhobia.

    There is no problem having a UK wide celebration of our Country in 2022 and at the time of the Commonwealth games. Brexit will have happened in some form by then.

    Why do you hate us celebrating our Country
  • Foreign property buyers will face an extra tax with the money raised being spent on tackling rough sleeping, Prime Minister Theresa May has said.

    She said foreign buyers could face a surcharge of 1% or 3% on top of stamp duty to stop them driving up UK prices.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45698446

    How does that work then? How does it stop foreigners driving up prices? It's just another tax. Even if we assume price sensitivity (doubtful) it will be swamped by exchange rate movements. Though I suppose we should applaud action on rough sleepers.
    All taxes affect actions and prices.

    All things being equal the sale will go to whoever pays the most, but the purchaser needs to factor in any taxes. If for a property the foreign purchaser is willing to pay £400k for example then a domestic purchaser needs to also pay more than £400k to buy the property. If they were only prepared to pay £390k they'd lose the house.

    But if there's a 3% tax then a £400k house comes with £12k surcharge. The foreign purchaser could only afford now £388k plus surcharge. The domestic purchaser who is prepared to pay the £390k is now offering the most and gets the house.
    Yes I get that in general but not in the particular case of high-end London property being bought as investments and shelters of wealth, the £4 million rather than £400,000 flats, where the extra stamp duty is just another tax which is in any case dwarfed by currency movements. It is not clear the PM believes it either because if it does put the foreigners off then there'd be no cash for the homeless.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,093

    I am surprised at the extent and co-ordination of the attacks on Boris especially as this is day one

    He is not at the conference but is going to appear at a side event on tuesday.

    He may find by then he is the object of great ridicule, even more so than now

    This just isn’t acheiving anything. Because Boris is right on Brexit and the cabinet look stupid defending a deal that none of them believe can actually be delivered.

    Look at Hunt today. You call him a serious politician for bashing the EU. Er - looks like an opportunist with no principles to me. He voted Remain and never showed any real sign of being a Eurosceptic. Then magically he changes his mind when Leave win. Then he backs Chequers. Now he is bashing the EU just to advance his odds in the leadership. There is really no difference between Hunt and Johnson. They are both doing what they can to take over from May.

    If Boris was such a joke, why spend all this effort on him? Because, of course, for all his faults he has been right about Brexit and the rest have been wrong.

    But take out Boris if it makes you feel better. We can then have JRM instead!
    You are most welcome to JRM. I am sure he can afford the air fare.
  • HYUFD said:

    I am surprised at the extent and co-ordination of the attacks on Boris especially as this is day one

    He is not at the conference but is going to appear at a side event on tuesday.

    He may find by then he is the object of great ridicule, even more so than now

    This just isn’t acheiving anything. Because Boris is right on Brexit and the cabinet look stupid defending a deal that none of them believe can actually be delivered.

    Look at Hunt today. You call him a serious politician for bashing the EU. Er - looks like an opportunist with no principles to me. He voted Remain and never showed any real sign of being a Eurosceptic. Then magically he changes his mind when Leave win. Then he backs Chequers. Now he is bashing the EU just to advance his odds in the leadership. There is really no difference between Hunt and Johnson. They are both doing what they can to take over from May.

    If Boris was such a joke, why spend all this effort on him? Because, of course, for all his faults he has been right about Brexit and the rest have been wrong.

    But take out Boris if it makes you feel better. We can then have JRM instead!
    Hunt was also clear today that while Brexit must be 'just to the 52%' it must also be 'generous to the 48%'
    Which confirms he is totally full of it. The Tories made the same mistake when they picked May. Promising everything to everyone means you deliver nothing, Luckily Tory members will never elect Hunt - he is invisible in the polling because everyone can see straight through him.
    Well we are being told the conference is full of members and these same members warmly applauded his speech. Sounds as if you are getting a bit rattled by the ever changing Brexit and the fall of Boris
  • murali_s said:

    I am surprised at the extent and co-ordination of the attacks on Boris especially as this is day one

    He is not at the conference but is going to appear at a side event on tuesday.

    He may find by then he is the object of great ridicule, even more so than now

    This just isn’t acheiving anything. Because Boris is right on Brexit and the cabinet look stupid defending a deal that none of them believe can actually be delivered.

    Look at Hunt today. You call him a serious politician for bashing the EU. Er - looks like an opportunist with no principles to me. He voted Remain and never showed any real sign of being a Eurosceptic. Then magically he changes his mind when Leave win. Then he backs Chequers. Now he is bashing the EU just to advance his odds in the leadership. There is really no difference between Hunt and Johnson. They are both doing what they can to take over from May.

    If Boris was such a joke, why spend all this effort on him? Because, of course, for all his faults he has been right about Brexit and the rest have been wrong.

    But take out Boris if it makes you feel better. We can then have JRM instead!
    I actually agree with you on Hunt. He is the kind of disingenuous lying two-faced politician the public despise. As I said earlier, no wonder politics is broken!
    I don't think you are a neutral observer to be fair
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    On current polls the LDs could well hold the balance of power at the next general election along with the SNP, so their local election performance may not be without consequences at Westminster

    Yes - including the four latest polls gives an EMA of:

    Com 38.7% 300 seats
    Lab 38.1% 271 seats
    LD 9.8% 17 seats
    UKIP 5.2% 0 seats
    Green 2.6% 1 seat
    SNP 40 seats
    PC 3 seats
    NI 18 seats

    Tories 26 short of a majority.


    So with 326 needed for a majority and Tories +DUP on 310 and Labour +SNP + Green + PC on 315 seats the LDs on 17 would indeed hold the balance of power
    DUP want to keep their role as sole kingmaker. So they'll agree to the constituency changes.....
    Apparently 30 Tory MPs are likely to vote against them.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,766

    HYUFD said:

    I am surprised at the extent and co-ordination of the attacks on Boris especially as this is day one

    He is not at the conference but is going to appear at a side event on tuesday.

    He may find by then he is the object of great ridicule, even more so than now

    This just isn’t acheiving anything. Because Boris is right on Brexit and the cabinet look stupid defending a deal that none of them believe can actually be delivered.

    Look at Hunt today. You call him a serious politician for bashing the EU. Er - looks like an opportunist with no principles to me. He voted Remain and never showed any real sign of being a Eurosceptic. Then magically he changes his mind when Leave win. Then he backs Chequers. Now he is bashing the EU just to advance his odds in the leadership. There is really no difference between Hunt and Johnson. They are both doing what they can to take over from May.

    If Boris was such a joke, why spend all this effort on him? Because, of course, for all his faults he has been right about Brexit and the rest have been wrong.

    But take out Boris if it makes you feel better. We can then have JRM instead!
    Hunt was also clear today that while Brexit must be 'just to the 52%' it must also be 'generous to the 48%'
    Which confirms he is totally full of it. The Tories made the same mistake when they picked May. Promising everything to everyone means you deliver nothing, Luckily Tory members will never elect Hunt - he is invisible in the polling because everyone can see straight through him.
    Well we are being told the conference is full of members and these same members warmly applauded his speech. Sounds as if you are getting a bit rattled by the ever changing Brexit and the fall of Boris
    Boris is having trouble keeping it up?

    That will make everyone's life a bit quieter...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    On current polls the LDs could well hold the balance of power at the next general election along with the SNP, so their local election performance may not be without consequences at Westminster

    Yes - including the four latest polls gives an EMA of:

    Com 38.7% 300 seats
    Lab 38.1% 271 seats
    LD 9.8% 17 seats
    UKIP 5.2% 0 seats
    Green 2.6% 1 seat
    SNP 40 seats
    PC 3 seats
    NI 18 seats

    Tories 26 short of a majority.


    So with 326 needed for a majority and Tories +DUP on 310 and Labour +SNP + Green + PC on 315 seats the LDs on 17 would indeed hold the balance of power
    DUP want to keep their role as sole kingmaker. So they'll agree to the constituency changes.....
    Apparently 30 Tory MPs are likely to vote against them.
    Where'd you read this? That sounds like quite a large number.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,766
    edited September 2018
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    On current polls the LDs could well hold the balance of power at the next general election along with the SNP, so their local election performance may not be without consequences at Westminster

    Yes - including the four latest polls gives an EMA of:

    Com 38.7% 300 seats
    Lab 38.1% 271 seats
    LD 9.8% 17 seats
    UKIP 5.2% 0 seats
    Green 2.6% 1 seat
    SNP 40 seats
    PC 3 seats
    NI 18 seats

    Tories 26 short of a majority.


    So with 326 needed for a majority and Tories +DUP on 310 and Labour +SNP + Green + PC on 315 seats the LDs on 17 would indeed hold the balance of power
    DUP want to keep their role as sole kingmaker. So they'll agree to the constituency changes.....
    Apparently 30 Tory MPs are likely to vote against them.
    Source?

    Edit:
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    On current polls the LDs could well hold the balance of power at the next general election along with the SNP, so their local election performance may not be without consequences at Westminster

    Yes - including the four latest polls gives an EMA of:

    Com 38.7% 300 seats
    Lab 38.1% 271 seats
    LD 9.8% 17 seats
    UKIP 5.2% 0 seats
    Green 2.6% 1 seat
    SNP 40 seats
    PC 3 seats
    NI 18 seats

    Tories 26 short of a majority.


    So with 326 needed for a majority and Tories +DUP on 310 and Labour +SNP + Green + PC on 315 seats the LDs on 17 would indeed hold the balance of power
    DUP want to keep their role as sole kingmaker. So they'll agree to the constituency changes.....
    Apparently 30 Tory MPs are likely to vote against them.
    Where'd you read this? That sounds like quite a large number.
    It's 9% of the Parliamentary party.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    On current polls the LDs could well hold the balance of power at the next general election along with the SNP, so their local election performance may not be without consequences at Westminster

    Yes - including the four latest polls gives an EMA of:

    Com 38.7% 300 seats
    Lab 38.1% 271 seats
    LD 9.8% 17 seats
    UKIP 5.2% 0 seats
    Green 2.6% 1 seat
    SNP 40 seats
    PC 3 seats
    NI 18 seats

    Tories 26 short of a majority.


    So with 326 needed for a majority and Tories +DUP on 310 and Labour +SNP + Green + PC on 315 seats the LDs on 17 would indeed hold the balance of power
    DUP want to keep their role as sole kingmaker. So they'll agree to the constituency changes.....
    Apparently 30 Tory MPs are likely to vote against them.
    Source?

    Edit:
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    On current polls the LDs could well hold the balance of power at the next general election along with the SNP, so their local election performance may not be without consequences at Westminster

    Yes - including the four latest polls gives an EMA of:

    Com 38.7% 300 seats
    Lab 38.1% 271 seats
    LD 9.8% 17 seats
    UKIP 5.2% 0 seats
    Green 2.6% 1 seat
    SNP 40 seats
    PC 3 seats
    NI 18 seats

    Tories 26 short of a majority.


    So with 326 needed for a majority and Tories +DUP on 310 and Labour +SNP + Green + PC on 315 seats the LDs on 17 would indeed hold the balance of power
    DUP want to keep their role as sole kingmaker. So they'll agree to the constituency changes.....
    Apparently 30 Tory MPs are likely to vote against them.
    Where'd you read this? That sounds like quite a large number.
    It's 9% of the Parliamentary party.
    If I find it I will post it but it was reported a few weeks back shortly after the Boundary changes were laid before Parliament.
  • ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    On current polls the LDs could well hold the balance of power at the next general election along with the SNP, so their local election performance may not be without consequences at Westminster

    Yes - including the four latest polls gives an EMA of:

    Com 38.7% 300 seats
    Lab 38.1% 271 seats
    LD 9.8% 17 seats
    UKIP 5.2% 0 seats
    Green 2.6% 1 seat
    SNP 40 seats
    PC 3 seats
    NI 18 seats

    Tories 26 short of a majority.


    So with 326 needed for a majority and Tories +DUP on 310 and Labour +SNP + Green + PC on 315 seats the LDs on 17 would indeed hold the balance of power
    DUP want to keep their role as sole kingmaker. So they'll agree to the constituency changes.....
    Apparently 30 Tory MPs are likely to vote against them.
    Source?

    Edit:
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    On current polls the LDs could well hold the balance of power at the next general election along with the SNP, so their local election performance may not be without consequences at Westminster

    Yes - including the four latest polls gives an EMA of:

    Com 38.7% 300 seats
    Lab 38.1% 271 seats
    LD 9.8% 17 seats
    UKIP 5.2% 0 seats
    Green 2.6% 1 seat
    SNP 40 seats
    PC 3 seats
    NI 18 seats

    Tories 26 short of a majority.


    So with 326 needed for a majority and Tories +DUP on 310 and Labour +SNP + Green + PC on 315 seats the LDs on 17 would indeed hold the balance of power
    DUP want to keep their role as sole kingmaker. So they'll agree to the constituency changes.....
    Apparently 30 Tory MPs are likely to vote against them.
    Where'd you read this? That sounds like quite a large number.
    It's 9% of the Parliamentary party.
    Lots of knighthoods and peerages then
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    On current polls the LDs could well hold the balance of power at the next general election along with the SNP, so their local election performance may not be without consequences at Westminster

    Yes - including the four latest polls gives an EMA of:

    Com 38.7% 300 seats
    Lab 38.1% 271 seats
    LD 9.8% 17 seats
    UKIP 5.2% 0 seats
    Green 2.6% 1 seat
    SNP 40 seats
    PC 3 seats
    NI 18 seats

    Tories 26 short of a majority.


    So with 326 needed for a majority and Tories +DUP on 310 and Labour +SNP + Green + PC on 315 seats the LDs on 17 would indeed hold the balance of power
    DUP want to keep their role as sole kingmaker. So they'll agree to the constituency changes.....
    Apparently 30 Tory MPs are likely to vote against them.
    Source?

    Edit:
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    On current polls the LDs could well hold the balance of power at the next general election along with the SNP, so their local election performance may not be without consequences at Westminster

    Yes - including the four latest polls gives an EMA of:

    Com 38.7% 300 seats
    Lab 38.1% 271 seats
    LD 9.8% 17 seats
    UKIP 5.2% 0 seats
    Green 2.6% 1 seat
    SNP 40 seats
    PC 3 seats
    NI 18 seats

    Tories 26 short of a majority.


    So with 326 needed for a majority and Tories +DUP on 310 and Labour +SNP + Green + PC on 315 seats the LDs on 17 would indeed hold the balance of power
    DUP want to keep their role as sole kingmaker. So they'll agree to the constituency changes.....
    Apparently 30 Tory MPs are likely to vote against them.
    Where'd you read this? That sounds like quite a large number.
    It's 9% of the Parliamentary party.
    If I find it I will post it but it was reported a few weeks back shortly after the Boundary changes were laid before Parliament.
    Aren’t the Tories going to lose roughly 30 MPs, perhaps that’s where the number came from?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,766

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    On current polls the LDs could well hold the balance of power at the next general election along with the SNP, so their local election performance may not be without consequences at Westminster

    Yes - including the four latest polls gives an EMA of:

    Com 38.7% 300 seats
    Lab 38.1% 271 seats
    LD 9.8% 17 seats
    UKIP 5.2% 0 seats
    Green 2.6% 1 seat
    SNP 40 seats
    PC 3 seats
    NI 18 seats

    Tories 26 short of a majority.


    So with 326 needed for a majority and Tories +DUP on 310 and Labour +SNP + Green + PC on 315 seats the LDs on 17 would indeed hold the balance of power
    DUP want to keep their role as sole kingmaker. So they'll agree to the constituency changes.....
    Apparently 30 Tory MPs are likely to vote against them.
    Source?

    Edit:
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    On current polls the LDs could well hold the balance of power at the next general election along with the SNP, so their local election performance may not be without consequences at Westminster

    Yes - including the four latest polls gives an EMA of:

    Com 38.7% 300 seats
    Lab 38.1% 271 seats
    LD 9.8% 17 seats
    UKIP 5.2% 0 seats
    Green 2.6% 1 seat
    SNP 40 seats
    PC 3 seats
    NI 18 seats

    Tories 26 short of a majority.


    So with 326 needed for a majority and Tories +DUP on 310 and Labour +SNP + Green + PC on 315 seats the LDs on 17 would indeed hold the balance of power
    DUP want to keep their role as sole kingmaker. So they'll agree to the constituency changes.....
    Apparently 30 Tory MPs are likely to vote against them.
    Where'd you read this? That sounds like quite a large number.
    It's 9% of the Parliamentary party.
    Lots of knighthoods and peerages then
    There'd better bloody not be one of either for Fabricant.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    On current polls the LDs could well hold the balance of power at the next general election along with the SNP, so their local election performance may not be without consequences at Westminster

    Yes - including the four latest polls gives an EMA of:

    Com 38.7% 300 seats
    Lab 38.1% 271 seats
    LD 9.8% 17 seats
    UKIP 5.2% 0 seats
    Green 2.6% 1 seat
    SNP 40 seats
    PC 3 seats
    NI 18 seats

    Tories 26 short of a majority.


    So with 326 needed for a majority and Tories +DUP on 310 and Labour +SNP + Green + PC on 315 seats the LDs on 17 would indeed hold the balance of power
    DUP want to keep their role as sole kingmaker. So they'll agree to the constituency changes.....
    Apparently 30 Tory MPs are likely to vote against them.
    Source?

    Edit:
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    On current polls the LDs could well hold the balance of power at the next general election along with the SNP, so their local election performance may not be without consequences at Westminster

    Yes - including the four latest polls gives an EMA of:

    Com 38.7% 300 seats
    Lab 38.1% 271 seats
    LD 9.8% 17 seats
    UKIP 5.2% 0 seats
    Green 2.6% 1 seat
    SNP 40 seats
    PC 3 seats
    NI 18 seats

    Tories 26 short of a majority.


    So with 326 needed for a majority and Tories +DUP on 310 and Labour +SNP + Green + PC on 315 seats the LDs on 17 would indeed hold the balance of power
    DUP want to keep their role as sole kingmaker. So they'll agree to the constituency changes.....
    Apparently 30 Tory MPs are likely to vote against them.
    Where'd you read this? That sounds like quite a large number.
    It's 9% of the Parliamentary party.
    If I find it I will post it but it was reported a few weeks back shortly after the Boundary changes were laid before Parliament.
    Aren’t the Tories going to lose roughly 30 MPs, perhaps that’s where the number came from?
    It was a reference to the likely scale of Opposition in the ranks of Tory MPs. Rebels would include Peter Bone and David Davis.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722
    FPT.

    Just seen a comment from Mr doethur.

    No, never, AFAIK, been in the same room, or religious meeting, as Tim Farron.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited September 2018
    Sky reporting that Jeremy Hunt speech has gone very well in the party

    Not so well in the diplomatic corp and it is hurtful to the EU.

    Looks as if the EU are sensitive souls
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited September 2018
    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    On current polls the LDs could well hold the balance of power at the next general election along with the SNP, so their local election performance may not be without consequences at Westminster

    Yes - including the four latest polls gives an EMA of:

    Com 38.7% 300 seats
    Lab 38.1% 271 seats
    LD 9.8% 17 seats
    UKIP 5.2% 0 seats
    Green 2.6% 1 seat
    SNP 40 seats
    PC 3 seats
    NI 18 seats

    Tories 26 short of a majority.


    So with 326 needed for a majority and Tories +DUP on 310 and Labour +SNP + Green + PC on 315 seats the LDs on 17 would indeed hold the balance of power
    DUP want to keep their role as sole kingmaker. So they'll agree to the constituency changes.....
    Apparently 30 Tory MPs are likely to vote against them.
    Source?

    Edit:
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    On current polls the LDs could well hold the balance of power at the next general election along with the SNP, so their local election performance may not be without consequences at Westminster

    Yes - including the four latest polls gives an EMA of:

    Com 38.7% 300 seats
    Lab 38.1% 271 seats
    LD 9.8% 17 seats
    UKIP 5.2% 0 seats
    Green 2.6% 1 seat
    SNP 40 seats
    PC 3 seats
    NI 18 seats

    Tories 26 short of a majority.


    So with 326 needed for a majority and Tories +DUP on 310 and Labour +SNP + Green + PC on 315 seats the LDs on 17 would indeed hold the balance of power
    DUP want to keep their role as sole kingmaker. So they'll agree to the constituency changes.....
    Apparently 30 Tory MPs are likely to vote against them.
    Where'd you read this? That sounds like quite a large number.
    It's 9% of the Parliamentary party.
    If I find it I will post it but it was reported a few weeks back shortly after the Boundary changes were laid before Parliament.
    Aren’t the Tories going to lose roughly 30 MPs, perhaps that’s where the number came from?
    It was a reference to the likely scale of Opposition in the ranks of Tory MPs. Rebels would include Peter Bone and David Davis.
    I just find it very hard to believe 30 would vote against it as it will undoubtedly be a three-lined whip.
  • I’m not sure how the Festival of Brexit is supposed to bring the country together. Once they’ve got past the innovative jams and Andrea Jenkyns has been modelled for the masthead of the new Britannia, I’m struggling to understand how the event is supposed to persuade what is now a sceptical majority that Brexit is a good idea. It sounds like reactionary claptrap to anyone who’s not completely high on the drug of Europhobia.

    There is no problem having a UK wide celebration of our Country in 2022 and at the time of the Commonwealth games. Brexit will have happened in some form by then.

    Why do you hate us celebrating our Country
    This is being sold as a celebration of Brexit. The appropriate way to celebrate Brexit would be with a minute’s silence to reflect on the avoidable decline of the country, not with some cheesy flag-waving nonsense where mad reactionaries fresh from splitting the country apart will alienate the majority still further.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    murali_s said:

    I am surprised at the extent and co-ordination of the attacks on Boris especially as this is day one

    He is not at the conference but is going to appear at a side event on tuesday.

    He may find by then he is the object of great ridicule, even more so than now

    This just isn’t acheiving anything. Because Boris is right on Brexit and the cabinet look stupid defending a deal that none of them believe can actually be delivered.

    Look at Hunt today. You call him a serious politician for bashing the EU. Er - looks like an opportunist with no principles to me. He voted Remain and never showed any real sign of being a Eurosceptic. Then magically he changes his mind when Leave win. Then he backs Chequers. Now he is bashing the EU just to advance his odds in the leadership. There is really no difference between Hunt and Johnson. They are both doing what they can to take over from May.

    If Boris was such a joke, why spend all this effort on him? Because, of course, for all his faults he has been right about Brexit and the rest have been wrong.

    But take out Boris if it makes you feel better. We can then have JRM instead!
    I actually agree with you on Hunt. He is the kind of disingenuous lying two-faced politician the public despise. As I said earlier, no wonder politics is broken!
    I don't think you are a neutral observer to be fair
    LOL - you noticed
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited September 2018
    From Daily Telegraph on 10th September -'Tory backbenchers believe there is “no way” plans to cut the number of MPs from 650 to 600 will go ahead because of the scale of opposition to the shake up.'
    The article suggested that 'dozens' would vote against.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,766

    FPT.

    Just seen a comment from Mr doethur.

    No, never, AFAIK, been in the same room, or religious meeting, as Tim Farron.

    Spooky that you and he had such similar ideas...

    Is there something we should know? :wink:
  • I’m not sure how the Festival of Brexit is supposed to bring the country together. Once they’ve got past the innovative jams and Andrea Jenkyns has been modelled for the masthead of the new Britannia, I’m struggling to understand how the event is supposed to persuade what is now a sceptical majority that Brexit is a good idea. It sounds like reactionary claptrap to anyone who’s not completely high on the drug of Europhobia.

    There is no problem having a UK wide celebration of our Country in 2022 and at the time of the Commonwealth games. Brexit will have happened in some form by then.

    Why do you hate us celebrating our Country
    This is being sold as a celebration of Brexit. The appropriate way to celebrate Brexit would be with a minute’s silence to reflect on the avoidable decline of the country, not with some cheesy flag-waving nonsense where mad reactionaries fresh from splitting the country apart will alienate the majority still further.
    Alastair, for an intelligent person like yourself you do write such rubbish at times
  • justin124 said:

    From Daily Telegraph on 10th September -'Tory backbenchers believe there is “no way” plans to cut the number of MPs from 650 to 600 will go ahead because of the scale of opposition to the shake up.'
    The article suggested that 'dozens' would vote against.

    Reduce the number of unelected Has-beens Lords, NOT the number of elected MPs!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,766
    justin124 said:

    From Daily Telegraph on 10th September -'Tory backbenchers believe there is “no way” plans to cut the number of MPs from 650 to 600 will go ahead because of the scale of opposition to the shake up.'
    The article suggested that 'dozens' would vote against.

    Sounds to me like somebody (note singular) with an agenda and minimal support venting their frustration and trying to increase pressure despite said minimal backing.

    I think we need at the very least some idea of who these rebels might be before we take it very seriously.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,766

    justin124 said:

    From Daily Telegraph on 10th September -'Tory backbenchers believe there is “no way” plans to cut the number of MPs from 650 to 600 will go ahead because of the scale of opposition to the shake up.'
    The article suggested that 'dozens' would vote against.

    Reduce the number of unelected Has-beens Lords, NOT the number of elected MPs!
    Your ambitions are too modest Sunil.

    I would reduce both,..
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited September 2018
    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    From Daily Telegraph on 10th September -'Tory backbenchers believe there is “no way” plans to cut the number of MPs from 650 to 600 will go ahead because of the scale of opposition to the shake up.'
    The article suggested that 'dozens' would vote against.

    Sounds to me like somebody (note singular) with an agenda and minimal support venting their frustration and trying to increase pressure despite said minimal backing.

    I think we need at the very least some idea of who these rebels might be before we take it very seriously.
    Several have been named - Fabricant - David Davis - Peter Bone - the Shipley MP. I suspect that the Tory Whips know very well that they are well short of the numbers needed to get the changes through.
  • justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    From Daily Telegraph on 10th September -'Tory backbenchers believe there is “no way” plans to cut the number of MPs from 650 to 600 will go ahead because of the scale of opposition to the shake up.'
    The article suggested that 'dozens' would vote against.

    Sounds to me like somebody (note singular) with an agenda and minimal support venting their frustration and trying to increase pressure despite said minimal backing.

    I think we need at the very least some idea of who these rebels might be before we take it very seriously.
    Several have been named - Fabricant - David Davis - Peter Bone - the Shipley MP.
    26 more for your 30 Justin
  • ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    From Daily Telegraph on 10th September -'Tory backbenchers believe there is “no way” plans to cut the number of MPs from 650 to 600 will go ahead because of the scale of opposition to the shake up.'
    The article suggested that 'dozens' would vote against.

    Reduce the number of unelected Has-beens Lords, NOT the number of elected MPs!
    Your ambitions are too modest Sunil.

    I would reduce both,..
    Yebbut at the moment we're the only bicameral democracy with more members sitting in the Upper House than the Lower House.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    From Daily Telegraph on 10th September -'Tory backbenchers believe there is “no way” plans to cut the number of MPs from 650 to 600 will go ahead because of the scale of opposition to the shake up.'
    The article suggested that 'dozens' would vote against.

    Sounds to me like somebody (note singular) with an agenda and minimal support venting their frustration and trying to increase pressure despite said minimal backing.

    I think we need at the very least some idea of who these rebels might be before we take it very seriously.
    Several have been named - Fabricant - David Davis - Peter Bone - the Shipley MP.
    26 more for your 30 Justin
    No - there is not a list of 30 - but that figure was mentioned in a report.
  • I’m not sure how the Festival of Brexit is supposed to bring the country together. Once they’ve got past the innovative jams and Andrea Jenkyns has been modelled for the masthead of the new Britannia, I’m struggling to understand how the event is supposed to persuade what is now a sceptical majority that Brexit is a good idea. It sounds like reactionary claptrap to anyone who’s not completely high on the drug of Europhobia.

    There is no problem having a UK wide celebration of our Country in 2022 and at the time of the Commonwealth games. Brexit will have happened in some form by then.

    Why do you hate us celebrating our Country
    This is being sold as a celebration of Brexit. The appropriate way to celebrate Brexit would be with a minute’s silence to reflect on the avoidable decline of the country, not with some cheesy flag-waving nonsense where mad reactionaries fresh from splitting the country apart will alienate the majority still further.
    Alastair, for an intelligent person like yourself you do write such rubbish at times
    I’ll bet you a fiver at evens that in the unlikely event that the grisly idea sees fruition it will be universally derided as a fiasco.
  • Sky reporting that Jeremy Hunt speech has gone very well in the party

    Not so well in the diplomatic corp and it is hurtful to the EU.

    Looks as if the EU are sensitive souls

    Hunt comparing the EU to a murderous tyranny. He wants to lead the Conservative party and knows that means he has to demonstrate a hatred for Europe. If that means insulting our nearest neighbours and trashing the reputation of this country even further, so be it. Is there any Tory politician who puts what’s in Britain’s best interests before what’s best for them?

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,766

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    From Daily Telegraph on 10th September -'Tory backbenchers believe there is “no way” plans to cut the number of MPs from 650 to 600 will go ahead because of the scale of opposition to the shake up.'
    The article suggested that 'dozens' would vote against.

    Reduce the number of unelected Has-beens Lords, NOT the number of elected MPs!
    Your ambitions are too modest Sunil.

    I would reduce both,..
    Yebbut at the moment we're the only bicameral democracy with more members sitting in the Upper House than the Lower House.
    Boris is a huge member. He may count for 200 of them.
  • I’m not sure how the Festival of Brexit is supposed to bring the country together. Once they’ve got past the innovative jams and Andrea Jenkyns has been modelled for the masthead of the new Britannia, I’m struggling to understand how the event is supposed to persuade what is now a sceptical majority that Brexit is a good idea. It sounds like reactionary claptrap to anyone who’s not completely high on the drug of Europhobia.

    There is no problem having a UK wide celebration of our Country in 2022 and at the time of the Commonwealth games. Brexit will have happened in some form by then.

    Why do you hate us celebrating our Country

    A festival of Brexit devised by Theresa May. What could possibly go wrong?

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,081
    edited September 2018

    I’m not sure how the Festival of Brexit is supposed to bring the country together. Once they’ve got past the innovative jams and Andrea Jenkyns has been modelled for the masthead of the new Britannia, I’m struggling to understand how the event is supposed to persuade what is now a sceptical majority that Brexit is a good idea. It sounds like reactionary claptrap to anyone who’s not completely high on the drug of Europhobia.

    There is no problem having a UK wide celebration of our Country in 2022 and at the time of the Commonwealth games. Brexit will have happened in some form by then.

    Why do you hate us celebrating our Country

    A festival of Brexit devised by Theresa May. What could possibly go wrong?

    It will be an excellent occas
    sion for a Rejoin rally :)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    HYUFD said:

    I am surprised at the extent and co-ordination of the attacks on Boris especially as this is day one

    He is not at the conference but is going to appear at a side event on tuesday.

    He may find by then he is the object of great ridicule, even more so than now

    This just isn’t acheiving anything. Because Boris is right on Brexit and the cabinet look stupid defending a deal that none of them believe can actually be delivered.

    Look at Hunt today. You call him a serious politician for bashing the EU. Er - looks like an opportunist with no principles to me. He voted Remain and never showed any real sign of being a Eurosceptic. Then magically he changes his mind when Leave win. Then he backs Chequers. Now he is bashing the EU just to advance his odds in the leadership. There is really no difference between Hunt and Johnson. They are both doing what they can to take over from May.

    If Boris was such a joke, why spend all this effort on him? Because, of course, for all his faults he has been right about Brexit and the rest have been wrong.

    But take out Boris if it makes you feel better. We can then have JRM instead!
    Hunt was also clear today that while Brexit must be 'just to the 52%' it must also be 'generous to the 48%'
    How? Some firm suggestions please as to how that is actually implemented - without the membership pointing and laughing at him. It sounds like vacuous PM-pitch wank.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,766
    edited September 2018

    I’m not sure how the Festival of Brexit is supposed to bring the country together. Once they’ve got past the innovative jams and Andrea Jenkyns has been modelled for the masthead of the new Britannia, I’m struggling to understand how the event is supposed to persuade what is now a sceptical majority that Brexit is a good idea. It sounds like reactionary claptrap to anyone who’s not completely high on the drug of Europhobia.

    There is no problem having a UK wide celebration of our Country in 2022 and at the time of the Commonwealth games. Brexit will have happened in some form by then.

    Why do you hate us celebrating our Country

    A festival of Brexit devised by Theresa May. What could possibly go wrong?

    The letters will fall off so she is standing in front of a sign just saying 'Exit?'
This discussion has been closed.