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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By 55% to 37% women say Kavanagh’s Supreme Court nomination sh

SystemSystem Posts: 11,007
edited October 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By 55% to 37% women say Kavanagh’s Supreme Court nomination should NOT be confirmed

A Quinnipiac poll just published finds finds that 48% of US voters think the U.S. Senate should reject Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court, with 42% saying he should be confirmed.

Read the full story here


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Comments

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    Lock him up
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    Oh was that a first?
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    I think he will be confirmed which is regretful from a moral and legal viewpoint, from a betting viewpoint yay.
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    steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019

    Oh was that a first?

    Insider dealing?
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    Sounds like someone trying to have their flake, and eat it
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    I think he will be confirmed which is regretful from a moral and legal viewpoint, from a betting viewpoint yay.

    If both men and women were against his appointment it would be in doubt IMO.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    My view is that Flake's comments reported in the header suggest that he is wobbling and if he does maybe 2/3 other Senators would join him.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    Oh was that a first?

    TSE I, II & III?

    Where's that judge-led inquiry.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Why is Boris even being allowed a conference speech?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    My view is that Flake's comments reported in the header suggest that he is wobbling and if he does maybe 2/3 other Senators would join him.

    Or...

    https://twitter.com/LPerrins/status/1046870612931747840

    https://twitter.com/NRO/status/1046869879494725632
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    alex. said:

    Why is Boris even being allowed a conference speech?

    Box Office
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    alex. said:

    Why is Boris even being allowed a conference speech?

    It's not in the main conference hall, is at a fringe event, which the CCHQ doesn't really control.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,644
    Scott_P said:
    And that has not been his aim for the past year at least?
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    Like TSE, I think his appointment would be a travesty from a legal and moral viewpoint, whereas from a betting one.....

    Well, I suspect if the confirmation goes ahead now it will hurt the Republicans badly at the mid-terms. If they drop him and quickly replace him with another conservative, I doubt there will be much impact on their vote.

    So if you have backed the Dems (and don't give a shit what happens to the USA) I think you'd want them to stick with him.
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    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,597

    My view is that Flake's comments reported in the header suggest that he is wobbling and if he does maybe 2/3 other Senators would join him.

    I reached the same conclusion before reading your comment. It strikes me that he is staking out grounds for justifying a decision to reject the nomination, that is the case that it should not go ahead while improper limitations are imposed on the investigation. Flake has nothing to lose because he is retiring.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    I think he will be confirmed which is regretful from a moral and legal viewpoint, from a betting viewpoint yay.

    Apparently the gang of 4 awkward Republican senators have said the limited scope FBI investigation is insufficient.

    This has swing me back from "100% nailed on will deffo be confirmed" to "maybe".

    From a betting perspective today has been a roller-coaster.
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    alex. said:

    Why is Boris even being allowed a conference speech?

    So he can finish himself off
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:

    My view is that Flake's comments reported in the header suggest that he is wobbling and if he does maybe 2/3 other Senators would join him.

    Or...

    https://twitter.com/LPerrins/status/1046870612931747840

    https://twitter.com/NRO/status/1046869879494725632
    But they are now, due to that Jeff Flake interview, not needing to prove any of the terrible allegations - they just need to show he lied about his drinking habits or any other trivial detail that he said under oath.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited October 2018
    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:

    My view is that Flake's comments reported in the header suggest that he is wobbling and if he does maybe 2/3 other Senators would join him.

    Or...

    https://twitter.com/LPerrins/status/1046870612931747840

    https://twitter.com/NRO/status/1046869879494725632
    But they are now, due to that Jeff Flake interview, not needing to prove any of the terrible allegations - they just need to show he lied about his drinking habits or any other trivial detail that he said under oath.
    Agreed. The evidence on his drinking habits is becoming much more clear cut and if it can be shown that he lied to the committee then he is in real trouble.

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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378

    My view is that Flake's comments reported in the header suggest that he is wobbling and if he does maybe 2/3 other Senators would join him.

    I’m not convinced.
    I think he wants either plausible cover for a yes vote, or solid evidence to vote no, and would be equally happy with either.

    He’s a fine example of nominative determinism, who still harbours Presidential ambition.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,644
    edited October 2018
    Scott_P said:
    Clever - he can get a temporary boost from people simply wanting to stop Brexit by it being delayed a bit, and buys time for more preparations for a much harder Brexit mollifying that crowd at the same time, while removing one attack on him that he does not have time to change direction now.

    Or perhaps that is part of his reasoning at any rate.

    Interesting picture choices from the editor there.
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    Scott_P said:
    He is going to lose Brexit. Six months more will drive the nation crazy and be a massive boost to a second referendum.

    He acts like a clown, he talks like a clown, he is a clown
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:

    My view is that Flake's comments reported in the header suggest that he is wobbling and if he does maybe 2/3 other Senators would join him.

    Or...

    https://twitter.com/LPerrins/status/1046870612931747840

    https://twitter.com/NRO/status/1046869879494725632
    But they are now, due to that Jeff Flake interview, not needing to prove any of the terrible allegations - they just need to show he lied about his drinking habits or any other trivial detail that he said under oath.
    Apparently now the standard for "ruined life" is "not being able to become a Supreme Court judge"...

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Agreed. The evidence on his drinking habits is becoming much more clear cut and if it can be shown that he lied to the committee then he is in real trouble.

    https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2018/09/28/us/ap-us-supreme-court-kavanaugh-drinking-age.html
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378
    The poll details are interesting, and though very good news for the Democrats in November, it does seem as though the ‘organised smear campaign’ line has gained some traction.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,945
    edited October 2018
    What is so special about Kavanaugh anyway? Are there no equally right-wing judges who are not problem drinkers, suspected sex pests and who don't throw a hysterical hissy fit when asked to answer questions concerning criminal allegations?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,225

    Scott_P said:
    He is going to lose Brexit. Six months more will drive the nation crazy and be a massive boost to a second referendum.

    He acts like a clown, he talks like a clown, he is a clown
    Excepting the small possibility that, having never wanted Brexit in the first place and certainly not wanting anything so difficult during his desired period in office, it's actually a cunning plan.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,644
    dixiedean said:

    What is so special about Kavanaugh anyway? Are there no equally right-wing judges who are not problem drinkers, suspected sex pests and who don't throw a hysterical hissy fit when asked to answer questions concerning criminal allegations.

    Trump doesn't like his choices being turned down, I imagine.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    dixiedean said:

    What is so special about Kavanaugh anyway? Are there no equally right-wing judges who are not problem drinkers, suspected sex pests and who don't throw a hysterical hissy fit when asked to answer questions concerning criminal allegations?

    Is he not on record as saying something like sitting presidents can never be convicted of anything?
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    dixiedean said:

    What is so special about Kavanaugh anyway? Are there no equally right-wing judges who are not problem drinkers, suspected sex pests and who don't throw a hysterical hissy fit when asked to answer questions concerning criminal allegations?

    He's not pretending to be impartial plus he'd support the precedent that a President can pardon himself.

    I cannot for the life of me imagine why Trump and the GOP would support someone who backs the latter principle.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,225
    Scott_P said:
    Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
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    dixiedean said:

    What is so special about Kavanaugh anyway? Are there no equally right-wing judges who are not problem drinkers, suspected sex pests and who don't throw a hysterical hissy fit when asked to answer questions concerning criminal allegations.

    A very good question

    See re Boris speech tomorrow the 'stop Boris campaign' intend infiltrating his address and booing him down.

    If true could be popcorn time
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,945
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    What is so special about Kavanaugh anyway? Are there no equally right-wing judges who are not problem drinkers, suspected sex pests and who don't throw a hysterical hissy fit when asked to answer questions concerning criminal allegations.

    Trump doesn't like his choices being turned down, I imagine.
    Surely then he should be a little more diligent in his choi...
    Oh yeah. It's Trump.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:

    My view is that Flake's comments reported in the header suggest that he is wobbling and if he does maybe 2/3 other Senators would join him.

    Or...

    https://twitter.com/LPerrins/status/1046870612931747840

    https://twitter.com/NRO/status/1046869879494725632
    But they are now, due to that Jeff Flake interview, not needing to prove any of the terrible allegations - they just need to show he lied about his drinking habits or any other trivial detail that he said under oath.
    Agreed. The evidence on his drinking habits is becoming much more clear cut and if it can be shown that he lied to the committee then he is in real trouble.

    Some American Conservatives are already calling him a perjurer:
    https://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/kavanaugh-and-the-rule-of-law/
    Almost twenty years ago, the House impeached then-President Clinton for perjury and obstruction of justice. Republican members emphasized again and again the importance of upholding the rule of law, and they insisted that no one, not even the president, should be above the law. Whatever their reasons for taking that position then, they were correct. Now Kavanaugh has committed the same crime of perjury, and the very least that the Senate can do is refuse to reward him for that crime by giving him a lifetime seat on the Supreme Court. If the Senate truly valued the rule of law, Kavanaugh’s nomination would never have made it out of committee. Unless it wants to make a mockery of both the Court and the rule of law, the Senate now has to defeat Kavanaugh’s nomination....
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    Per the Times front page, we're staying in the Customs Union in all but name.

    Mrs May is turning out to be the best PM since Maggie.
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    Per the Times front page, we're staying in the Customs Union in all but name.

    Mrs May is turning out to be the best PM since Maggie.

    I think that is inspired if true
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Re: the Times’ other story about the scientist, I’m not sure they have reported that correctly. From my reading of his presentation, Prof Strumia was saying that women aren’t discriminated against for physics jobs rather than they are not suited to it per se. I have no idea whether there is any evidence for his claim but merely point out that the headline seems a stretch.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Anazina said:

    Re: the Times’ other story about the scientist, I’m not sure they have reported that correctly. From my reading of his presentation, Prof Strumia was saying that women aren’t discriminated against for physics jobs rather than they are not suited to it per se. I have no idea whether there is any evidence for his claim but merely point out that the headline seems a stretch.

    An effective way of closing down any debate on the matter, don't you think?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
    The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election and Davidson in Scotland ideally holding the balance of power at Holyrood in 2021.

    However hopefully May is moving towards doing the necessary on the Irish border and the backstop it seems to get us a transition deal which must be the priority for now, we can only start thinking about FTA talks once we have that transition period confirmed
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,644

    dixiedean said:

    What is so special about Kavanaugh anyway? Are there no equally right-wing judges who are not problem drinkers, suspected sex pests and who don't throw a hysterical hissy fit when asked to answer questions concerning criminal allegations?

    he'd support the precedent that a President can pardon himself.
    It's a very curious idea. I'm sure many great american constitutional scholars have some great debates on the subject, but given the importance of accountability I thought was a big part of the american system, could the framers really have intended a president to pardon himself, even on the basis that the congress has other options to hand? It just seems like such an arbitrary abuse of a position, and I kind of thought the american system was not a fan of imperial uses of power. But as I say, I am no constitutional scholar, let alone an american one.
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    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
    The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election and Davidson in Scotland ideally holding the balance of power at Holyrood in 2021.

    However hopefully May is moving towards doing the necessary on the Irish border and the backstop it seems to get us a transition deal which must be the priority for now, we can only start thinking about FTA talks once we have that transition period confirmed
    Staying in the customs union until a trade deal is agreed is inspired thinking and I hope it is true

    It would sail through the HOC
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,576
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
    The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election
    I doubt Boris will be standing as an MP at the next GE.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,644
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    He is going to lose Brexit. Six months more will drive the nation crazy and be a massive boost to a second referendum.

    He acts like a clown, he talks like a clown, he is a clown
    Excepting the small possibility that, having never wanted Brexit in the first place and certainly not wanting anything so difficult during his desired period in office, it's actually a cunning plan.
    Boris may be cunning, but he is not disciplined enough for that.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Per the Times front page, we're staying in the Customs Union in all but name.

    Mrs May is turning out to be the best PM since Maggie.

    Indeed. We will look back at this time of describe it as TMay's finest hour.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,644

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
    The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election
    I doubt Boris will be standing as an MP at the next GE.
    He could be a newspaper editor - it's all the rage among former ministers thesedays.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,644

    Per the Times front page, we're staying in the Customs Union in all but name.

    Mrs May is turning out to be the best PM since Maggie.

    Indeed. We will look back at this time of describe it as TMay's finest hour.
    Even if she ends up deserving it I don't think May will be receiving many accolades for a long long time, so it will take some looking back I am sure.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited October 2018

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
    The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election
    I doubt Boris will be standing as an MP at the next GE.
    Of course he will, he increased the Tory voteshare in Uxbridge in both 2015 and 2017
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    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
    The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election
    I doubt Boris will be standing as an MP at the next GE.
    I think it is more than likely. With the Scon mps opposing him together with Ruth Davidson his chances have greatly narrowed and if he gets publically booed tomorrow from the stop Boris group he must realise he has no chance of the top job
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,644
    Scott_P said:
    Is it significant that the story attributes the announcement to both Javid and May? I know it is within his area, but entirely without evidence it feels like such reports could usually just state they were from the Home Secretary or the PM without needing to clarify it came from both. Being creatively cynical one might reflect that it is useful though as it is often unclear if Cabinet ministers back the PM. More probably it is because I am reading a historical novel which involves a lot of political wrangling between co-rulers and senior officials and the like and it is impacting my thinking.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    Scott_P said:
    Charles Aznavour was the French Sinatra, his 'She' was one of the best songs ever written
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Well

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
    The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election
    I doubt Boris will be standing as an MP at the next GE.
    RobD said:

    Anazina said:

    Re: the Times’ other story about the scientist, I’m not sure they have reported that correctly. From my reading of his presentation, Prof Strumia was saying that women aren’t discriminated against for physics jobs rather than they are not suited to it per se. I have no idea whether there is any evidence for his claim but merely point out that the headline seems a stretch.

    An effective way of closing down any debate on the matter, don't you think?
    Well if you are saying they shouldn’t misreport him, I agree. That’s the point I’m making.
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    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
    The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election
    I doubt Boris will be standing as an MP at the next GE.
    Of course he will, he increased the Tory voteshare in Uxbridge in both 2015 and 2017
    So what. If his path to power has gone so will he.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
    The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election and Davidson in Scotland ideally holding the balance of power at Holyrood in 2021.

    However hopefully May is moving towards doing the necessary on the Irish border and the backstop it seems to get us a transition deal which must be the priority for now, we can only start thinking about FTA talks once we have that transition period confirmed
    Staying in the customs union until a trade deal is agreed is inspired thinking and I hope it is true

    It would sail through the HOC
    Corbyn could hardly oppose it given it was basically his idea
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    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
    The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election
    I doubt Boris will be standing as an MP at the next GE.
    Of course he will, he increased the Tory voteshare in Uxbridge in both 2015 and 2017
    But saw his majority slashed by half in 2017.

    Cannot imagine why you didn't mention that.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Other Tory MPs were openly seething with him.

    Boris’s successor in the seat of Henley, John Howell MP, told The Sun: “As far as I’m concerned, Boris can just f*** off””.

    Balding former Cabinet minister and May loyalist Damian Green was equally scathing.

    He told activists yesterday that he will miss the “annual Boris performance” today as “sadly I’m washing my hair”.


    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7393055/boris-johnson-brexit-delay-plans/
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
    The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election
    I doubt Boris will be standing as an MP at the next GE.
    Of course he will, he increased the Tory voteshare in Uxbridge in both 2015 and 2017
    So what. If his path to power has gone so will he.
    Plenty of time until 2022 and plenty of time for Boris to take over
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,644
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
    The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election
    I doubt Boris will be standing as an MP at the next GE.
    Of course he will, he increased the Tory voteshare in Uxbridge in both 2015 and 2017
    What has that to do with anything? Ken Clarke has increased the Tory vote share in Rushcliffe at every election following 1997 (barely in some cases in fairness), does that mean that 'of course' he will stand next time?

    Boris is not as old as Clarke, clearly, but just because someone was handily re-elected at previous elections does not mean they will stand again, that's a decision taking in factors far beyond 'will I even manage to win next time?'
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    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
    The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election
    I doubt Boris will be standing as an MP at the next GE.
    Of course he will, he increased the Tory voteshare in Uxbridge in both 2015 and 2017
    So what. If his path to power has gone so will he.
    Plenty of time until 2022 and plenty of time for Boris to take over
    Give up. He is toxic
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Anazina said:

    Re: the Times’ other story about the scientist, I’m not sure they have reported that correctly. From my reading of his presentation, Prof Strumia was saying that women aren’t discriminated against for physics jobs rather than they are not suited to it per se. I have no idea whether there is any evidence for his claim but merely point out that the headline seems a stretch.

    He was talking complete cr*p. Women are as capable as men in physics but historically women have been denied the right to take part. It was only a generation ago that Oxford and Cambridge were rejecting talented women because they were women
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,644
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
    The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election and Davidson in Scotland ideally holding the balance of power at Holyrood in 2021.

    However hopefully May is moving towards doing the necessary on the Irish border and the backstop it seems to get us a transition deal which must be the priority for now, we can only start thinking about FTA talks once we have that transition period confirmed
    Staying in the customs union until a trade deal is agreed is inspired thinking and I hope it is true

    It would sail through the HOC
    Corbyn could hardly oppose it given it was basically his idea
    That doesn't mean he could not oppose it - it would just be harder to explain why he was doing so without it being obvious it was about preferring a GE.

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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    More lax reporting from the Times

    “With the potential for checks in the Irish Sea”.

    Prepare for flying boats and seafaring customs officials.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
    The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election
    I doubt Boris will be standing as an MP at the next GE.
    Of course he will, he increased the Tory voteshare in Uxbridge in both 2015 and 2017
    So what. If his path to power has gone so will he.
    Plenty of time until 2022 and plenty of time for Boris to take over
    Just lay the bet. You’ll feel better.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,576
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is it significant that the story attributes the announcement to both Javid and May? I know it is within his area, but entirely without evidence it feels like such reports could usually just state they were from the Home Secretary or the PM without needing to clarify it came from both. Being creatively cynical one might reflect that it is useful though as it is often unclear if Cabinet ministers back the PM. More probably it is because I am reading a historical novel which involves a lot of political wrangling between co-rulers and senior officials and the like and it is impacting my thinking.
    I think it is - because we’ve had a chorus of “May will compromise of FOM” - this significantly raises the stakes for her if she does (which I don’t think she will).
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,644

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is it significant that the story attributes the announcement to both Javid and May? I know it is within his area, but entirely without evidence it feels like such reports could usually just state they were from the Home Secretary or the PM without needing to clarify it came from both. Being creatively cynical one might reflect that it is useful though as it is often unclear if Cabinet ministers back the PM. More probably it is because I am reading a historical novel which involves a lot of political wrangling between co-rulers and senior officials and the like and it is impacting my thinking.
    I think it is - because we’ve had a chorus of “May will compromise of FOM” - this significantly raises the stakes for her if she does (which I don’t think she will).
    I was more just thinking if we are going to be getting used to a lot of 'Minister X and May announce' sort of arrangements, in essence because she is so lacking in authority any announcement must also be tied, personally, to her ministers even more than was already the case, or perhaps it could be a sign of lining up other candidates by getting used to referring to them in the same breath as the PM.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,945
    edited October 2018
    Couple of questions. How do businesses prove they have tried to recruit here, and are making an effort to train up locals?
    How do they then prove workers are integrating?
    Sounds like a bonfire of red tape.
    To be built not set on fire.
    Edit: Questions not directed at you Carlotta :)
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    From that rather lightweight Mail story it’s hard to get to the detail of Javid’s visa scheme. Seems industries that require a steady stream of low skilled workers will be “temporarily” exempt - of course temporary is a meaningless word.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378
    Nigelb said:

    The poll details are interesting, and though very good news for the Democrats in November, it does seem as though the ‘organised smear campaign’ line has gained some traction.

    Also interesting that Trump’s (admittedly weak) personal approval rating hasn’t taken an equivalent hit.

    He’s publicly leaving himself room to drop Kavanaugh should it become inevitable.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,576
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is it significant that the story attributes the announcement to both Javid and May? I know it is within his area, but entirely without evidence it feels like such reports could usually just state they were from the Home Secretary or the PM without needing to clarify it came from both. Being creatively cynical one might reflect that it is useful though as it is often unclear if Cabinet ministers back the PM. More probably it is because I am reading a historical novel which involves a lot of political wrangling between co-rulers and senior officials and the like and it is impacting my thinking.
    I think it is - because we’ve had a chorus of “May will compromise of FOM” - this significantly raises the stakes for her if she does (which I don’t think she will).
    I was more just thinking if we are going to be getting used to a lot of 'Minister X and May announce' sort of arrangements, in essence because she is so lacking in authority any announcement must also be tied, personally, to her ministers even more than was already the case, or perhaps it could be a sign of lining up other candidates by getting used to referring to them in the same breath as the PM.
    Possible - but I suspect this one is tied to specific policy.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
    The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election and Davidson in Scotland ideally holding the balance of power at Holyrood in 2021.

    However hopefully May is moving towards doing the necessary on the Irish border and the backstop it seems to get us a transition deal which must be the priority for now, we can only start thinking about FTA talks once we have that transition period confirmed
    Staying in the customs union until a trade deal is agreed is inspired thinking and I hope it is true

    It would sail through the HOC
    Corbyn could hardly oppose it given it was basically his idea
    That doesn't mean he could not oppose it - it would just be harder to explain why he was doing so without it being obvious it was about preferring a GE.

    Also, the government is probably going to make sure they DON'T officially label it as a "customs union" (even if it effectively is one, in all but name), in order to manage the Tories' internal divisions - so Corbyn would be able to say they hadn't technically met his requirement of a customs union.

    I think it's pretty much nailed-on that the Labour leadership will oppose the deal no matter what, but a customs union in-all-but-name might well pick off enough rebel Labour MPs to see it through Parliament.
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    dyingswandyingswan Posts: 189
    I have watched BBC and Sky News today. Not a word about the end of NAFTA. Why not? The new agreement between the USA Canada and Mexico is excellent for world trade.The Peso and Canadian dollar have risen and markets have reacted favourably. I fully understand that it goes against the narratives of the media to give any credit to the current USA president. But it would not hurt them to cover a piece of really good news that bodes well for the UK in a post Brexit environment. Go on Jon Sopel. Just once try and say something positive about the American government.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
    The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election
    I doubt Boris will be standing as an MP at the next GE.
    I think it is more than likely. With the Scon mps opposing him together with Ruth Davidson his chances have greatly narrowed and if he gets publically booed tomorrow from the stop Boris group he must realise he has no chance of the top job
    Boris leads today's ConHome Tory members poll with an 11% lead over second placed Javid, of course he continues to have a chance.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/10/our-next-tory-leader-survey-javid-is-up-and-johnson-down-slightly-but-the-latter-retains-a-double-figure-lead.html



  • Options
    Anazina said:

    More lax reporting from the Times

    “With the potential for checks in the Irish Sea”.

    Prepare for flying boats and seafaring customs officials.

    Why not build an iceberg out of wood chippings, use it as a backstop, or third man, not even the EU could sink it.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378
    dyingswan said:

    I have watched BBC and Sky News today. Not a word about the end of NAFTA. Why not? The new agreement between the USA Canada and Mexico is excellent for world trade.The Peso and Canadian dollar have risen and markets have reacted favourably. I fully understand that it goes against the narratives of the media to give any credit to the current USA president. But it would not hurt them to cover a piece of really good news that bodes well for the UK in a post Brexit environment. Go on Jon Sopel. Just once try and say something positive about the American government.

    Well it is the lead item on the BBC website ‘World’ news.

  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
    The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election
    I doubt Boris will be standing as an MP at the next GE.
    I think it is more than likely. With the Scon mps opposing him together with Ruth Davidson his chances have greatly narrowed and if he gets publically booed tomorrow from the stop Boris group he must realise he has no chance of the top job
    Boris leads today's ConHome Tory members poll with an 11% lead over second placed Javid, of course he continues to have a chance.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/10/our-next-tory-leader-survey-javid-is-up-and-johnson-down-slightly-but-the-latter-retains-a-double-figure-lead.html



    You are like an old gramaphone record. He is a gonner
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,644

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
    The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election
    I doubt Boris will be standing as an MP at the next GE.
    I think it is more than likely. With the Scon mps opposing him together with Ruth Davidson his chances have greatly narrowed and if he gets publically booed tomorrow from the stop Boris group he must realise he has no chance of the top job
    Boris leads today's ConHome Tory members poll with an 11% lead over second placed Javid, of course he continues to have a chance.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/10/our-next-tory-leader-survey-javid-is-up-and-johnson-down-slightly-but-the-latter-retains-a-double-figure-lead.html



    You are like an old gramaphone record. He is a gonner
    It would actually be hilarious if Boris's speech really did reveal some major PM credentials and convinced the doubters.
  • Options
    Time to go

    Have a great nights rest everyone

    Good night folks
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited October 2018

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
    The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election
    I doubt Boris will be standing as an MP at the next GE.
    I think it is more than likely. With the Scon mps opposing him together with Ruth Davidson his chances have greatly narrowed and if he gets publically booed tomorrow from the stop Boris group he must realise he has no chance of the top job
    Boris leads today's ConHome Tory members poll with an 11% lead over second placed Javid, of course he continues to have a chance.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/10/our-next-tory-leader-survey-javid-is-up-and-johnson-down-slightly-but-the-latter-retains-a-double-figure-lead.html



    You are like an old gramaphone record. He is a gonner
    Never ever count out Boris as Ken Livingstone and Cameron and Osborne discovered to their cost
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    edited October 2018
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Concerning numbers for Mrs Merkel on this page:

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
    The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election
    I doubt Boris will be standing as an MP at the next GE.
    I think it is more than likely. With the Scon mps opposing him together with Ruth Davidson his chances have greatly narrowed and if he gets publically booed tomorrow from the stop Boris group he must realise he has no chance of the top job
    Boris leads today's ConHome Tory members poll with an 11% lead over second placed Javid, of course he continues to have a chance.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/10/our-next-tory-leader-survey-javid-is-up-and-johnson-down-slightly-but-the-latter-retains-a-double-figure-lead.html



    You are like an old gramaphone record. He is a gonner
    It would actually be hilarious if Boris's speech really did reveal some major PM credentials and convinced the doubters.
    That is impossible - tomorrow is his last stand
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,644

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
    The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election
    I doubt Boris will be standing as an MP at the next GE.
    I think it is more than likely. With the Scon mps opposing him together with Ruth Davidson his chances have greatly narrowed and if he gets publically booed tomorrow from the stop Boris group he must realise he has no chance of the top job
    Boris leads today's ConHome Tory members poll with an 11% lead over second placed Javid, of course he continues to have a chance.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/10/our-next-tory-leader-survey-javid-is-up-and-johnson-down-slightly-but-the-latter-retains-a-double-figure-lead.html

    You are like an old gramaphone record. He is a gonner
    It would actually be hilarious if Boris's speech really did reveal some major PM credentials and convinced the doubters.
    That is impossible - tomorrow is his last stand
    Even if it is the case that his leadership ambitions die tomorrow - and frankly I find that hard to believe - he can cause trouble very easily for a long time nevertheless, as a Brexit reckoning is coming for the Tories, and too many of them are not going to be able to back down. He could, but he may decide better to be a constant troublemaker instead.

    And let us not forget May is far from safe yet, let alone a deal reached.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,945

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
    The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election
    I doubt Boris will be standing as an MP at the next GE.
    I think it is more than likely. With the Scon mps opposing him together with Ruth Davidson his chances have greatly narrowed and if he gets publically booed tomorrow from the stop Boris group he must realise he has no chance of the top job
    Boris leads today's ConHome Tory members poll with an 11% lead over second placed Javid, of course he continues to have a chance.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/10/our-next-tory-leader-survey-javid-is-up-and-johnson-down-slightly-but-the-latter-retains-a-double-figure-lead.html



    You are like an old gramaphone record. He is a gonner
    It would actually be hilarious if Boris's speech really did reveal some major PM credentials and convinced the doubters.
    That is impossible - tomorrow is his last stand
    Not impossible. But weren't we discussing the definition of miracle just the other day?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
    The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election
    I doubt Boris will be standing as an MP at the next GE.
    I think it is more than likely. With the Scon mps opposing him together with Ruth Davidson his chances have greatly narrowed and if he gets publically booed tomorrow from the stop Boris group he must realise he has no chance of the top job
    Boris leads today's ConHome Tory members poll with an 11% lead over second placed Javid, of course he continues to have a chance.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/10/our-next-tory-leader-survey-javid-is-up-and-johnson-down-slightly-but-the-latter-retains-a-double-figure-lead.html

    You are like an old gramaphone record. He is a gonner
    It would actually be hilarious if Boris's speech really did reveal some major PM credentials and convinced the doubters.
    That is impossible - tomorrow is his last stand
    Even if it is the case that his leadership ambitions die tomorrow - and frankly I find that hard to believe - he can cause trouble very easily for a long time nevertheless, as a Brexit reckoning is coming for the Tories, and too many of them are not going to be able to back down. He could, but he may decide better to be a constant troublemaker instead.

    And let us not forget May is far from safe yet, let alone a deal reached.
    With the possible exception of Mogg Boris is the only Rockstar the Tories have to counter Corbyn, even if many can't stand him
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited October 2018
    GIN1138 said:
    DUP leader Arlene Foster praising Boris' 'positive' vision for Brexit there, says ministers 'lack aspiration' for the country and says she could back a Canada style FTA trade agreement ultimately if a deal can be done on the NI border
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    HYUFD said:

    With the possible exception of Mogg Boris is the only Rockstar the Tories have to counter Corbyn, even if many can't stand him

    Does the polling not show him doing worse than May?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,644
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Awaiting HY to come along with some spurious poll...
    The best electoral combination would still be Boris for the UK at the next general election
    I doubt Boris will be standing as an MP at the next GE.
    I think it is more than likely. With the Scon mps opposing him together with Ruth Davidson his chances have greatly narrowed and if he gets publically booed tomorrow from the stop Boris group he must realise he has no chance of the top job
    Boris leads today's ConHome Tory members poll with an 11% lead over second placed Javid, of course he continues to have a chance.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/10/our-next-tory-leader-survey-javid-is-up-and-johnson-down-slightly-but-the-latter-retains-a-double-figure-lead.html

    You are like an old gramaphone record. He is a gonner
    It would actually be hilarious if Boris's speech really did reveal some major PM credentials and convinced the doubters.
    That is impossible - tomorrow is his last stand
    Even if it is the case that his leadership ambitions die tomorrow - and frankly I find that hard to believe - he can cause trouble very easily for a long time nevertheless, as a Brexit reckoning is coming for the Tories, and too many of them are not going to be able to back down. He could, but he may decide better to be a constant troublemaker instead.

    And let us not forget May is far from safe yet, let alone a deal reached.
    With the possible exception of Mogg Boris is the only Rockstar the Tories have to counter Corbyn, even if many can't stand him
    They don't need a rock star to beat Corbyn. May beat him, albeit by much less than almost everyone thought she would. They need ideas and credibility, and someone better at campaigning than May - it doesn't follow that they must therefore go for a charismatic risk like Boris whose best achievements are a long time ago now, and who has been in the spotlight for a long time too, and therefore his appeal is waning as everyone's does over time.

    Boris seems to me to be the sort of option you pick if you have zero time to consider anything else and you need to take a gamble on his chaotic nature and appeal. But if the Tories could just keep their shit together for 5 minutes they have time before the next election.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:
    Arlene praising Boris' 'positive' vision for Brexit there
    Looks like the DUP have had it with May and Hammond...

    Won't it be funny if, in the end, it all comes back to Therea ****ing up the election that sees her downfall (if the DUP say they're pulling the plug unless Boris is installed as leader)

    You reap what you sow...
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Esther McVey's speech, (on Newsnight), not exactly getting rapturous applause from the conference floor.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    dixiedean said:

    Couple of questions. How do businesses prove they have tried to recruit here, and are making an effort to train up locals?
    How do they then prove workers are integrating?
    Sounds like a bonfire of red tape.
    To be built not set on fire.
    Edit: Questions not directed at you Carlotta :)
    The “tried to recruit here” rules already exist - they are PITA. When my wife got her work permit (as a US citizen) she needed to prove she was the most suitable candidate in the entire of the EU.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    On topic, personally I prefer the presumption of innocence.
This discussion has been closed.