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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Housing policy could decide

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited October 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Housing policy could decide the next General Election

On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Matt Singh look at recent polling by Matt on behalf of Shelter and ask ‘what’s going on in the marginals’ and ‘How important is housing politically?’

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    First, like Leave (including the CU and SM)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Second - Can someone post the thread again so I get to have another go at being first?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    GIN1138 said:

    Second - Can someone post the thread again so I get to have another go at being first?

    Are you questioning the will of the people?!!?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    edited October 2018
    Bismillah!

    Galileo news:
    https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1047029149221699584

    Edited extra bit: I'd want to consult a map, but I'm not necessarily sure I buy Williamson's argument, to be honest.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Edited extra bit: I'd want to consult a map, but I'm not necessarily sure I buy Williamson's argument, to be honest.

    https://twitter.com/bleddb/status/1047047286013014016
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Sxith :o
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,543

    Bismillah!

    Galileo news:
    https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1047029149221699584

    Edited extra bit: I'd want to consult a map, but I'm not necessarily sure I buy Williamson's argument, to be honest.

    IANAE on GPS, but it wouldn't surprise me if Williamson was correct. For instance, Russia recently opened a ground station for Glosnass in Nicaragua, and another in SA.

    Probably for the same reason that NASA has ground stations for space comms around the world, including famously in Australia.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. D, you are the Colin Baker of this thread.

    Mr. Jessop, perhaps.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785
    GIN1138 said:

    Second - Can someone post the thread again so I get to have another go at being first?

    What if we promised you a somewhat different thread, covering the same sort of theme but asking a subtly different question, and with 3 years of new information to hand quite a bit of which flatly contracted the earlier thread.

    Would you pass up the chance of commenting First?

    No deal Brexit pretty much invalidates 99% of what Leavers of all persuasions told us would be the case in 2016 and any residual legitimacy their prospectusses had would be shot.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    F1: planning and chatting going on to change qualifying to a four part format. Because what F1 needs to do now is dick around with one aspect that works fine and ignore all the significant problems of coverage, audiences declining, sponsorship, financial equality, and difficulty overtaking.

    As an aside, viewers may recall the last time they tried changing qualifying. Everybody said it was stupid. And it turned out to be very stupid. I'm hopeful they won't be quite so delinquent again, but we'll see.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Can anyone think of a catchy three word phrase to sum up Boris Johnson's latest idea?
    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1047100671579906049
  • Can anyone think of a catchy three word phrase to sum up Boris Johnson's latest idea?
    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1047100671579906049

    Boris is lying.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    F1: planning and chatting going on to change qualifying to a four part format. Because what F1 needs to do now is dick around with one aspect that works fine and ignore all the significant problems of coverage, audiences declining, sponsorship, financial equality, and difficulty overtaking.

    As an aside, viewers may recall the last time they tried changing qualifying. Everybody said it was stupid. And it turned out to be very stupid. I'm hopeful they won't be quite so delinquent again, but we'll see.

    It's not as stupid as the last attempt but is another one where they are trying to find a means for a driver in a top 3 team to fail to get to final qualifying....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Can anyone think of a catchy three word phrase to sum up Boris Johnson's latest idea?
    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1047100671579906049

    Boris is lying.
    :lol:
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. eek, gerrymandering a system that way was dumb when they altered the points to stop Schumacher winning (it didn't work), and it's dumb now.
  • So, a couple of hours after delivering his speech it turns out that Johnson got some basic details wrong and told lies about the EU. Whoever would have thought it?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    So, a couple of hours after delivering his speech it turns out that Johnson got some basic details wrong and told lies about the EU. Whoever would have thought it?

    Did he make a speech?
  • So, a couple of hours after delivering his speech it turns out that Johnson got some basic details wrong and told lies about the EU. Whoever would have thought it?

    What do you mean a couple of hours? We found some whilst he was still speaking.
  • So, a couple of hours after delivering his speech it turns out that Johnson got some basic details wrong and told lies about the EU. Whoever would have thought it?

    He started out very well but it became tedious and faded.

    In the last two days, Hunt, Javid and Boris have all underwhelmed

    Looks as if TM is going to continue for quite some time
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082

    Can anyone think of a catchy three word phrase to sum up Boris Johnson's latest idea?
    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1047100671579906049

    https://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/0?s=19
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    edited October 2018

    So, a couple of hours after delivering his speech it turns out that Johnson got some basic details wrong and told lies about the EU. Whoever would have thought it?

    He started out very well but it became tedious and faded.

    In the last two days, Hunt, Javid and Boris have all underwhelmed

    Looks as if TM is going to continue for quite some time
    Before handing over to Raab.
  • Mortimer said:

    So, a couple of hours after delivering his speech it turns out that Johnson got some basic details wrong and told lies about the EU. Whoever would have thought it?

    He started out very well but it became tedious and faded.

    In the last two days, Hunt, Javid and Boris have all underwhelmed

    Looks as if TM is going to continue for quite some time
    Before handing over to Raab.
    Maybe but it is no clearer after today just who her successor will be
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    No but he's asking based on a story in the Times this weekend (can't remember if it was in Saturday or Sundays) where a sister had to pay tax to inherit the family home she had always lived in with her sister.

    now its a rare example but a not totally unheard of issue...
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572
    (From the previous thread) The perception of Corbyn's view of Brexit is in fact quite damaging to him. In general people are much more likely to believe that his position is the opposite of their own position, even though the numbers supporting Leave and Remain are almost equal. Given that the art of politics is persuading people that you share their concerns, that is a remarkable failure of political messaging.

    The detail is this. In YouGov's poll, of those who voted Leave, only 20% believe that Corbyn backs Leave, compared to 51% who believe he backs Remain. That's a net balance of 31% of Leavers who consider he takes the opposite view to theirs. Of those who voted Remain, 40% believe he backs Remain compared to 27% who believe he backs Leave. A net balance of 13% of Remains who consider he takes the same view to theirs. Do the same for May and this is what you get: For Remainers 28% net think that May backs their view, and for Leavers 23% net think that May doesn't back their view.

    Overall, for Corbyn, people are more likely to think that he disagrees with their view on Brexit by a margin of around 19% (*). Overall for May, people are more likely to think that she agrees with their view on Brexit by a margin about 4% (*).

    [* Note: Weighting slightly to take account of the fact that the number of 2016 leavers in the sample is slightly greater than the number of 2016 remainers.]
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited October 2018
    So what. It does not matter who backs it you need to show how it would happen

    Also it is not certain who would win
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Glenn, to be fair, Willetts has been a bit silly for some time. I still recall his inane plan to tackle intergenerational unfairness by increasing inheritance tax (he may also have been in favour of higher taxes on the elderly. Can't recall if that daftness was his or another's).
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    (From the previous thread) The perception of Corbyn's view of Brexit is in fact quite damaging to him. In general people are much more likely to believe that his position is the opposite of their own position, even though the numbers supporting Leave and Remain are almost equal. Given that the art of politics is persuading people that you share their concerns, that is a remarkable failure of political messaging.

    The detail is this. In YouGov's poll, of those who voted Leave, only 20% believe that Corbyn backs Leave, compared to 51% who believe he backs Remain. That's a net balance of 31% of Leavers who consider he takes the opposite view to theirs. Of those who voted Remain, 40% believe he backs Remain compared to 27% who believe he backs Leave. A net balance of 13% of Remains who consider he takes the same view to theirs. Do the same for May and this is what you get: For Remainers 28% net think that May backs their view, and for Leavers 23% net think that May doesn't back their view.

    Overall, for Corbyn, people are more likely to think that he disagrees with their view on Brexit by a margin of around 19% (*). Overall for May, people are more likely to think that she agrees with their view on Brexit by a margin about 4% (*).

    [* Note: Weighting slightly to take account of the fact that the number of 2016 leavers in the sample is slightly greater than the number of 2016 remainers.]

    That’s worth going up on a thread header.

    Maybe titled ‘People more distrustful of Corbyn than May on Beexit’
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    So what. It does not matter who backs it you need to showchowcit would happen

    Also it is not certain who would win
    Binary choice: Ratify the Withdrawal Agreement or Revoke Article 50. It's the right thing to do and whoever wins, it will legitimise the outcome.
  • So what. It does not matter who backs it you need to showchowcit would happen

    Also it is not certain who would win
    Binary choice: Ratify the Withdrawal Agreement or Revoke Article 50. It's the right thing to do and whoever wins, it will legitimise the outcome.
    Many would disagree with you
  • (From the previous thread) The perception of Corbyn's view of Brexit is in fact quite damaging to him. In general people are much more likely to believe that his position is the opposite of their own position, even though the numbers supporting Leave and Remain are almost equal. Given that the art of politics is persuading people that you share their concerns, that is a remarkable failure of political messaging.

    The detail is this. In YouGov's poll, of those who voted Leave, only 20% believe that Corbyn backs Leave, compared to 51% who believe he backs Remain. That's a net balance of 31% of Leavers who consider he takes the opposite view to theirs. Of those who voted Remain, 40% believe he backs Remain compared to 27% who believe he backs Leave. A net balance of 13% of Remains who consider he takes the same view to theirs. Do the same for May and this is what you get: For Remainers 28% net think that May backs their view, and for Leavers 23% net think that May doesn't back their view.

    Overall, for Corbyn, people are more likely to think that he disagrees with their view on Brexit by a margin of around 19% (*). Overall for May, people are more likely to think that she agrees with their view on Brexit by a margin about 4% (*).

    [* Note: Weighting slightly to take account of the fact that the number of 2016 leavers in the sample is slightly greater than the number of 2016 remainers.]

    Interesting, thanks.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584

    Can anyone think of a catchy three word phrase to sum up Boris Johnson's latest idea?
    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1047100671579906049

    Boris' ballooning bullshit ?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    So what. It does not matter who backs it you need to showchowcit would happen

    Also it is not certain who would win
    Binary choice: Ratify the Withdrawal Agreement or Revoke Article 50. It's the right thing to do and whoever wins, it will legitimise the outcome.
    Ain’t going to be held, but it would be absolutely hilarious if it was and Leave won with a huge margin.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    the man who screwed up uni fees asks us to trust him
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    Bismillah!

    Galileo news:
    https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1047029149221699584

    Edited extra bit: I'd want to consult a map, but I'm not necessarily sure I buy Williamson's argument, to be honest.

    IANAE on GPS, but it wouldn't surprise me if Williamson was correct. For instance, Russia recently opened a ground station for Glosnass in Nicaragua, and another in SA.

    Probably for the same reason that NASA has ground stations for space comms around the world, including famously in Australia.
    My understanding, and I too am not an expert, is this:

    All three positioning systems (the US's GPS, China's BeiDou and Russia's Glonass) work with satellites that broadcast the time. This means that if you look at the differences in time of signals recieved you can triangulate your position.

    This does not require ground stations.

    However, it is common to have A-GPS, or assisted GPS, type systems where - in addition to the satellites - there are ground stations that broadcast the time too. This enables a greater level of accuracy than just using the satellites alone. The more signals you can triangulate off, the more detail you have. Furthermore, it adds redundancy. Satellites have problems that cannot be easily fixed ground stations do not.

    If Gallileo lost Diego Garcia, the Falklands and the other place, then it would degrade the accuracy and resiliency of the system. However, it is not like these are the only places where you can put ground stations - its simply that the middle of the sea is where there are fewest options.

    In the Indian Ocean, there are a number of alternatives (whether Reunion or the Maldives or any number of alternatives), so the loss of Diego Garcia is probably no big deal. Likewise, in the Pacific, there are a lot of options. The South Atlantic is probably the place where there would be the biggest impact - but, again, there's no reason why you couldn't do Southern Chile or Argentina.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Glenn, second referendum enthusiasts would be wise to make those the options, if they actually get another vote.

    It'd depress Leave voter turnout because at least some will be unhappy with the deal (and probably the second vote itself). A straight Remain/Leave re-run would be likelier to go Leave again.

    But whatever happens, this will rumble on for decades.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited October 2018
    The media always seems to think that consumer price inflation is a bad thing whilst house price inflation is a good thing (it's not).

    House price inflation is only a good thing for people who have a house to sell and are down sizing.

    For people trying to buy a house for the first time or to upsize from their existing house, increased prices make it harder.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    Did his other brain not get a vote the first time ?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    Danny565 said:
    Was it the cornfield?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Mr. Glenn, second referendum enthusiasts would be wise to make those the options, if they actually get another vote.

    It'd depress Leave voter turnout because at least some will be unhappy with the deal (and probably the second vote itself). A straight Remain/Leave re-run would be likelier to go Leave again.

    But whatever happens, this will rumble on for decades.

    A straight Leave/Remain rerun boils down to those two options anyway, because unless Leave is accompanied by overthrowing the government, it will mean accepting the deal they've negotiated.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Can anyone think of a catchy three word phrase to sum up Boris Johnson's latest idea?
    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1047100671579906049

    Brexit Brutus blows it.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited October 2018
    "Two Brains - No Sense Willets" backs another go round for Remain?

    Colour me unsurprised...

    Next one to back another referendum will be bloody Letwin! :D
  • So what. It does not matter who backs it you need to showchowcit would happen

    Also it is not certain who would win
    Binary choice: Ratify the Withdrawal Agreement or Revoke Article 50. It's the right thing to do and whoever wins, it will legitimise the outcome.
    Having a WTO Brexit would mean we don't want to ratify the Withdrawal Agreement (paying money to he EU) nor revoke Article 50 (which is not ours to revoke).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    Mortimer said:

    (From the previous thread) The perception of Corbyn's view of Brexit is in fact quite damaging to him. In general people are much more likely to believe that his position is the opposite of their own position, even though the numbers supporting Leave and Remain are almost equal. Given that the art of politics is persuading people that you share their concerns, that is a remarkable failure of political messaging.

    The detail is this. In YouGov's poll, of those who voted Leave, only 20% believe that Corbyn backs Leave, compared to 51% who believe he backs Remain. That's a net balance of 31% of Leavers who consider he takes the opposite view to theirs. Of those who voted Remain, 40% believe he backs Remain compared to 27% who believe he backs Leave. A net balance of 13% of Remains who consider he takes the same view to theirs. Do the same for May and this is what you get: For Remainers 28% net think that May backs their view, and for Leavers 23% net think that May doesn't back their view.

    Overall, for Corbyn, people are more likely to think that he disagrees with their view on Brexit by a margin of around 19% (*). Overall for May, people are more likely to think that she agrees with their view on Brexit by a margin about 4% (*).

    [* Note: Weighting slightly to take account of the fact that the number of 2016 leavers in the sample is slightly greater than the number of 2016 remainers.]

    That’s worth going up on a thread header.

    Maybe titled ‘People more distrustful of Corbyn than May on Beexit’
    Though it also should be weighted by how much the subject determines their vote. Strangely, there are a fair number of people bothered either way.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,346
    But does anyone, including Jeremy Corbyn have the slightest idea what he actually thinks about Brexit?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669

    Mr. Glenn, second referendum enthusiasts would be wise to make those the options, if they actually get another vote.

    It'd depress Leave voter turnout because at least some will be unhappy with the deal (and probably the second vote itself). A straight Remain/Leave re-run would be likelier to go Leave again.

    But whatever happens, this will rumble on for decades.

    A straight Leave/Remain rerun boils down to those two options anyway, because unless Leave is accompanied by overthrowing the government, it will mean accepting the deal they've negotiated.
    They need to have a deal first. If they go for the one recently trailed then the DUP may not like it:

    "On Monday, ex-Brexit minister Steve Baker told Sky News that if true, the proposal would probably see the DUP "bring down the government". "
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900



    IANAE on GPS, but it wouldn't surprise me if Williamson was correct. For instance, Russia recently opened a ground station for Glosnass in Nicaragua, and another in SA.

    Galileo has stations all over the place already:
    http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Navigation/Service_interruption_for_Galileo_system_upgrade

    Does look like a bit of a gap wrt the Falklands though - don't think there are any French rocks down there.
  • Can anyone think of a catchy three word phrase to sum up Boris Johnson's latest idea?
    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1047100671579906049


    Lock Her Up.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Mr. Glenn, second referendum enthusiasts would be wise to make those the options, if they actually get another vote.

    It'd depress Leave voter turnout because at least some will be unhappy with the deal (and probably the second vote itself). A straight Remain/Leave re-run would be likelier to go Leave again.

    But whatever happens, this will rumble on for decades.

    A straight Leave/Remain rerun boils down to those two options anyway, because unless Leave is accompanied by overthrowing the government, it will mean accepting the deal they've negotiated.
    They need to have a deal first. If they go for the one recently trailed then the DUP may not like it:

    "On Monday, ex-Brexit minister Steve Baker told Sky News that if true, the proposal would probably see the DUP "bring down the government". "
    All the more reason to jump straight to proposing a referendum. That would neutralise any attempt to bring down the government from any quarter.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669

    Mr. Glenn, second referendum enthusiasts would be wise to make those the options, if they actually get another vote.

    It'd depress Leave voter turnout because at least some will be unhappy with the deal (and probably the second vote itself). A straight Remain/Leave re-run would be likelier to go Leave again.

    But whatever happens, this will rumble on for decades.

    A straight Leave/Remain rerun boils down to those two options anyway, because unless Leave is accompanied by overthrowing the government, it will mean accepting the deal they've negotiated.
    They need to have a deal first. If they go for the one recently trailed then the DUP may not like it:

    "On Monday, ex-Brexit minister Steve Baker told Sky News that if true, the proposal would probably see the DUP "bring down the government". "
    All the more reason to jump straight to proposing a referendum. That would neutralise any attempt to bring down the government from any quarter.
    Agreed.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Mortimer said:

    (From the previous thread) The perception of Corbyn's view of Brexit is in fact quite damaging to him. In general people are much more likely to believe that his position is the opposite of their own position, even though the numbers supporting Leave and Remain are almost equal. Given that the art of politics is persuading people that you share their concerns, that is a remarkable failure of political messaging.

    The detail is this. In YouGov's poll, of those who voted Leave, only 20% believe that Corbyn backs Leave, compared to 51% who believe he backs Remain. That's a net balance of 31% of Leavers who consider he takes the opposite view to theirs. Of those who voted Remain, 40% believe he backs Remain compared to 27% who believe he backs Leave. A net balance of 13% of Remains who consider he takes the same view to theirs. Do the same for May and this is what you get: For Remainers 28% net think that May backs their view, and for Leavers 23% net think that May doesn't back their view.

    Overall, for Corbyn, people are more likely to think that he disagrees with their view on Brexit by a margin of around 19% (*). Overall for May, people are more likely to think that she agrees with their view on Brexit by a margin about 4% (*).

    [* Note: Weighting slightly to take account of the fact that the number of 2016 leavers in the sample is slightly greater than the number of 2016 remainers.]

    That’s worth going up on a thread header.

    Maybe titled ‘People more distrustful of Corbyn than May on Beexit’
    That should create a buzz! ;-)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,713
    edited October 2018
    The Government are certainly pushing house building targets on councils to be met through Local Plans which should help them in marginal seats at the next general election. However it is annoying their core vote in the Home Counties shires especially in council elections
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    So what. It does not matter who backs it you need to showchowcit would happen

    Also it is not certain who would win
    Binary choice: Ratify the Withdrawal Agreement or Revoke Article 50. It's the right thing to do and whoever wins, it will legitimise the outcome.
    Having a WTO Brexit would mean we don't want to ratify the Withdrawal Agreement (paying money to he EU) nor revoke Article 50 (which is not ours to revoke).
    I disagree with you here. I think it doesn't matter so much (in terms of medium term economic growth) what kind of Brexit we have, but it does matter that we have an orderly transition to it.

    So, we need to negotiate bilateral corporate tax treaties with the EU-27 during a transition period, for example, and to ensure that (as much as possible) existing EU trading arrangements are replicated.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Andrew said:



    IANAE on GPS, but it wouldn't surprise me if Williamson was correct. For instance, Russia recently opened a ground station for Glosnass in Nicaragua, and another in SA.

    Galileo has stations all over the place already:
    http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Navigation/Service_interruption_for_Galileo_system_upgrade

    Does look like a bit of a gap wrt the Falklands though - don't think there are any French rocks down there.
    They don't have to be at sea, though. Patagonia would work, for instance.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,713

    Mr. Glenn, second referendum enthusiasts would be wise to make those the options, if they actually get another vote.

    It'd depress Leave voter turnout because at least some will be unhappy with the deal (and probably the second vote itself). A straight Remain/Leave re-run would be likelier to go Leave again.

    But whatever happens, this will rumble on for decades.

    A straight Leave/Remain rerun boils down to those two options anyway, because unless Leave is accompanied by overthrowing the government, it will mean accepting the deal they've negotiated.
    They need to have a deal first. If they go for the one recently trailed then the DUP may not like it:

    "On Monday, ex-Brexit minister Steve Baker told Sky News that if true, the proposal would probably see the DUP "bring down the government". "
    The proposal on a Customs Union is not for a final deal but to resolve the Irish backstop issue for a withdrawal agreement and transition period.

    Even if the ERG and DUP oppose it I think enough Labour and LD backbenchers could support it to get the transition period
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    Mr. Glenn, second referendum enthusiasts would be wise to make those the options, if they actually get another vote.

    It'd depress Leave voter turnout because at least some will be unhappy with the deal (and probably the second vote itself). A straight Remain/Leave re-run would be likelier to go Leave again.

    But whatever happens, this will rumble on for decades.

    A straight Leave/Remain rerun boils down to those two options anyway, because unless Leave is accompanied by overthrowing the government, it will mean accepting the deal they've negotiated.
    They need to have a deal first. If they go for the one recently trailed then the DUP may not like it:

    "On Monday, ex-Brexit minister Steve Baker told Sky News that if true, the proposal would probably see the DUP "bring down the government". "
    All the more reason to jump straight to proposing a referendum. That would neutralise any attempt to bring down the government from any quarter.
    But wouldn't proposing one bring down the government anyway?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,713

    Mr. Glenn, second referendum enthusiasts would be wise to make those the options, if they actually get another vote.

    It'd depress Leave voter turnout because at least some will be unhappy with the deal (and probably the second vote itself). A straight Remain/Leave re-run would be likelier to go Leave again.

    But whatever happens, this will rumble on for decades.

    Polling shows Remain v Leave is still neck and neck but Remain v Leave with No Deal sees Remain have at least a 10% lead
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Recidivist, whether you're referring to Lucius Junius Brutus or Marcus Junius Brutus (founder of the republic and assassin of Caesar, respectively), it's unfair on Brutus.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    rcs1000 said:
    You won't be surprised to hear that a PB-er (apologies can't remember who) pointed this out earlier just after he had said it.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,037
    Mortimer said:

    So what. It does not matter who backs it you need to showchowcit would happen

    Also it is not certain who would win
    Binary choice: Ratify the Withdrawal Agreement or Revoke Article 50. It's the right thing to do and whoever wins, it will legitimise the outcome.
    Ain’t going to be held, but it would be absolutely hilarious if it was and Leave won with a huge margin.
    Hilarious to you maybe but catastrophic for the country.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    HYUFD said:

    Mr. Glenn, second referendum enthusiasts would be wise to make those the options, if they actually get another vote.

    It'd depress Leave voter turnout because at least some will be unhappy with the deal (and probably the second vote itself). A straight Remain/Leave re-run would be likelier to go Leave again.

    But whatever happens, this will rumble on for decades.

    A straight Leave/Remain rerun boils down to those two options anyway, because unless Leave is accompanied by overthrowing the government, it will mean accepting the deal they've negotiated.
    They need to have a deal first. If they go for the one recently trailed then the DUP may not like it:

    "On Monday, ex-Brexit minister Steve Baker told Sky News that if true, the proposal would probably see the DUP "bring down the government". "
    The proposal on a Customs Union is not for a final deal but to resolve the Irish backstop issue for a withdrawal agreement and transition period.

    Even if the ERG and DUP oppose it I think enough Labour and LD backbenchers could support it to get the transition period
    Lab, could easily support a Customs Union

    Dont think May can survive one as leader of Tories though
  • I'm sure many of you have heard of the game "bullshit bingo" which is a way to liven up meetings at corporate events. Perhaps they could have done a similar thing with Boris speech. Spot the deliberate or accidental inaccuracy and shout bingo when you get a full-house. It wouldn't take long, the lying little bastard.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    edited October 2018
    dixiedean said:

    Mr. Glenn, second referendum enthusiasts would be wise to make those the options, if they actually get another vote.

    It'd depress Leave voter turnout because at least some will be unhappy with the deal (and probably the second vote itself). A straight Remain/Leave re-run would be likelier to go Leave again.

    But whatever happens, this will rumble on for decades.

    A straight Leave/Remain rerun boils down to those two options anyway, because unless Leave is accompanied by overthrowing the government, it will mean accepting the deal they've negotiated.
    They need to have a deal first. If they go for the one recently trailed then the DUP may not like it:

    "On Monday, ex-Brexit minister Steve Baker told Sky News that if true, the proposal would probably see the DUP "bring down the government". "
    All the more reason to jump straight to proposing a referendum. That would neutralise any attempt to bring down the government from any quarter.
    But wouldn't proposing one bring down the government anyway?
    Not if they get the timing and presentation right. It would instantly transform the political landscape.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
    Danny565 said:
    In fairness to her she is putting herself about a lot more this Conference than we have seen before. She seems to be doing a lot of interviews, even if they are all on the BBC.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    dixiedean said:

    Mr. Glenn, second referendum enthusiasts would be wise to make those the options, if they actually get another vote.

    It'd depress Leave voter turnout because at least some will be unhappy with the deal (and probably the second vote itself). A straight Remain/Leave re-run would be likelier to go Leave again.

    But whatever happens, this will rumble on for decades.

    A straight Leave/Remain rerun boils down to those two options anyway, because unless Leave is accompanied by overthrowing the government, it will mean accepting the deal they've negotiated.
    They need to have a deal first. If they go for the one recently trailed then the DUP may not like it:

    "On Monday, ex-Brexit minister Steve Baker told Sky News that if true, the proposal would probably see the DUP "bring down the government". "
    All the more reason to jump straight to proposing a referendum. That would neutralise any attempt to bring down the government from any quarter.
    But wouldn't proposing one bring down the government anyway?
    Not if they get the timing and presentation right. It would instantly transform the political landscape.
    We're talking about May, Hammond et al. They have trouble walking in a straight line. The idea that May is some kind of political Moriarty with an infeasibly cunning plan for reverse-ferreting the UK back into the EU is, in my view, wishful thinking of the first water.
  • DavidL said:

    Danny565 said:
    In fairness to her she is putting herself about a lot more this Conference than we have seen before. She seems to be doing a lot of interviews, even if they are all on the BBC.
    Hasn't she just done one on Sky?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
    What the podcast makes clear is that the section by Boris today on housing was spot on in identifying the issue which could resolve the next election. Generation rent need homes and they need them now. There has been a modest pick up in housebuilding but it is nothing like what the situation requires: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/live-tables-on-house-building

    Getting home ownership climbing again really should be a priority for the government.
  • John_M said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mr. Glenn, second referendum enthusiasts would be wise to make those the options, if they actually get another vote.

    It'd depress Leave voter turnout because at least some will be unhappy with the deal (and probably the second vote itself). A straight Remain/Leave re-run would be likelier to go Leave again.

    But whatever happens, this will rumble on for decades.

    A straight Leave/Remain rerun boils down to those two options anyway, because unless Leave is accompanied by overthrowing the government, it will mean accepting the deal they've negotiated.
    They need to have a deal first. If they go for the one recently trailed then the DUP may not like it:

    "On Monday, ex-Brexit minister Steve Baker told Sky News that if true, the proposal would probably see the DUP "bring down the government". "
    All the more reason to jump straight to proposing a referendum. That would neutralise any attempt to bring down the government from any quarter.
    But wouldn't proposing one bring down the government anyway?
    Not if they get the timing and presentation right. It would instantly transform the political landscape.
    We're talking about May, Hammond et al. They have trouble walking in a straight line. The idea that May is some kind of political Moriarty with an infeasibly cunning plan for reverse-ferreting the UK back into the EU is, in my view, wishful thinking of the first water.
    William will believe anything if it is anti Brexit. He's been sent mad by it. I reckon he is Andrew Adonis.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776

    DavidL said:

    Danny565 said:
    In fairness to her she is putting herself about a lot more this Conference than we have seen before. She seems to be doing a lot of interviews, even if they are all on the BBC.
    Hasn't she just done one on Sky?
    Didn't see it. There was some tweet earlier that she had done 20 interviews with BBC journalists and none with ITV or C4. If that is true she is doing a lot more interviews than in previous years.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Can anyone with a straight face say the Tories aren't completely bonkers?

    They're queuing up to eulogize Boris.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785
    edited October 2018

    Can anyone think of a catchy three word phrase to sum up Boris Johnson's latest idea?
    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1047100671579906049

    Brexit Brutus blows it.
    A Praemunire ejaculation?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Song, deckheads.

    A deckhead is a 'ceiling' in a ship. Not quite as amusing as futtocks (type of planks).

    Anyway, I must be off.
  • Roger said:

    Can anyone with a straight face say the Tories aren't completely bonkers?

    They're queuing up to eulogize Boris.

    It's a sign of the times, Roger me old lad. Basically, the Tories are wank, Labour are wank and the Lib Dems haven't got a decent wank in them. I don't have the foggiest where we go from here. Brexit might well be a shiteshow, but it pales into insignificance compared to the dismal standard of the motley gangs who want to be our leaders through it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    dixiedean said:

    Mr. Glenn, second referendum enthusiasts would be wise to make those the options, if they actually get another vote.

    It'd depress Leave voter turnout because at least some will be unhappy with the deal (and probably the second vote itself). A straight Remain/Leave re-run would be likelier to go Leave again.

    But whatever happens, this will rumble on for decades.

    A straight Leave/Remain rerun boils down to those two options anyway, because unless Leave is accompanied by overthrowing the government, it will mean accepting the deal they've negotiated.
    They need to have a deal first. If they go for the one recently trailed then the DUP may not like it:

    "On Monday, ex-Brexit minister Steve Baker told Sky News that if true, the proposal would probably see the DUP "bring down the government". "
    All the more reason to jump straight to proposing a referendum. That would neutralise any attempt to bring down the government from any quarter.
    But wouldn't proposing one bring down the government anyway?
    Not if they get the timing and presentation right. It would instantly transform the political landscape.
    That's a somewhat significant if given this lot.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Danny565 said:
    In fairness to her she is putting herself about a lot more this Conference than we have seen before. She seems to be doing a lot of interviews, even if they are all on the BBC.
    Hasn't she just done one on Sky?
    Didn't see it. There was some tweet earlier that she had done 20 interviews with BBC journalists and none with ITV or C4. If that is true she is doing a lot more interviews than in previous years.
    Doesn't Robert Peston work for ITV?

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1047159744593584134
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    I wonder if May has the balls to say in her speech tomorrow that she's not willing to stand down before the next election. Newsnight was claming a few weeks ago (via "sources") that she was considering saying it.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    the man who screwed up uni fees asks us to trust him
    It was George Osborne.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    John_M said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mr. Glenn, second referendum enthusiasts would be wise to make those the options, if they actually get another vote.

    It'd depress Leave voter turnout because at least some will be unhappy with the deal (and probably the second vote itself). A straight Remain/Leave re-run would be likelier to go Leave again.

    But whatever happens, this will rumble on for decades.

    A straight Leave/Remain rerun boils down to those two options anyway, because unless Leave is accompanied by overthrowing the government, it will mean accepting the deal they've negotiated.
    They need to have a deal first. If they go for the one recently trailed then the DUP may not like it:

    "On Monday, ex-Brexit minister Steve Baker told Sky News that if true, the proposal would probably see the DUP "bring down the government". "
    All the more reason to jump straight to proposing a referendum. That would neutralise any attempt to bring down the government from any quarter.
    But wouldn't proposing one bring down the government anyway?
    Not if they get the timing and presentation right. It would instantly transform the political landscape.
    We're talking about May, Hammond et al. They have trouble walking in a straight line. The idea that May is some kind of political Moriarty with an infeasibly cunning plan for reverse-ferreting the UK back into the EU is, in my view, wishful thinking of the first water.
    William will believe anything if it is anti Brexit. He's been sent mad by it. I reckon he is Andrew Adonis.
    I had an inkling that William was mildly fond of the EU. But some straws are too frail to be grasped and May having any political nous is such a one.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478

    Can anyone think of a catchy three word phrase to sum up Boris Johnson's latest idea?
    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1047100671579906049

    It's pretty straightforward ain't it?
    Boris's Brexit Bollix
  • Roger said:

    Can anyone with a straight face say the Tories aren't completely bonkers?

    They're queuing up to eulogize Boris.

    It's a sign of the times, Roger me old lad. Basically, the Tories are wank, Labour are wank and the Lib Dems haven't got a decent wank in them. I don't have the foggiest where we go from here. Brexit might well be a shiteshow, but it pales into insignificance compared to the dismal standard of the motley gangs who want to be our leaders through it.
    It is a function of the "I don't do politics" malaise which has infected much of the West. Moderate people have decided they don't do politics, and have left politics to those on the extreme left and the extreme right who like to "do us" in more ways than a sex worker with a revised edition of the Kama Sutra
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2018
    Boris's naked ambition is refreshingly honest, in a way. He always said he wanted to be World King, and he's already been mayor of London.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    Roger said:

    Can anyone with a straight face say the Tories aren't completely bonkers?

    They're queuing up to eulogize Boris.

    I come not to praise Boris, but to bury him...

    Tories always go for a posh boy with no attention to detail. It is in the genes for them to tug their forelocks to such.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Danny565 said:
    In fairness to her she is putting herself about a lot more this Conference than we have seen before. She seems to be doing a lot of interviews, even if they are all on the BBC.
    Hasn't she just done one on Sky?
    Didn't see it. There was some tweet earlier that she had done 20 interviews with BBC journalists and none with ITV or C4. If that is true she is doing a lot more interviews than in previous years.
    Doesn't Robert Peston work for ITV?

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1047159744593584134
    Yes he does. So that seems to have been as accurate as most tweets.
  • John_M said:

    John_M said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mr. Glenn, second referendum enthusiasts would be wise to make those the options, if they actually get another vote.

    It'd depress Leave voter turnout because at least some will be unhappy with the deal (and probably the second vote itself). A straight Remain/Leave re-run would be likelier to go Leave again.

    But whatever happens, this will rumble on for decades.

    A straight Leave/Remain rerun boils down to those two options anyway, because unless Leave is accompanied by overthrowing the government, it will mean accepting the deal they've negotiated.
    They need to have a deal first. If they go for the one recently trailed then the DUP may not like it:

    "On Monday, ex-Brexit minister Steve Baker told Sky News that if true, the proposal would probably see the DUP "bring down the government". "
    All the more reason to jump straight to proposing a referendum. That would neutralise any attempt to bring down the government from any quarter.
    But wouldn't proposing one bring down the government anyway?
    Not if they get the timing and presentation right. It would instantly transform the political landscape.
    We're talking about May, Hammond et al. They have trouble walking in a straight line. The idea that May is some kind of political Moriarty with an infeasibly cunning plan for reverse-ferreting the UK back into the EU is, in my view, wishful thinking of the first water.
    William will believe anything if it is anti Brexit. He's been sent mad by it. I reckon he is Andrew Adonis.
    I had an inkling that William was mildly fond of the EU. But some straws are too frail to be grasped and May having any political nous is such a one.
    He may not be "fond" of the EU at all. He might be like me and recognise that it is far from perfect as an institution, but that Brexit is a collective insanity that is mainly advocated by morons, nationalistic nutjobs and opportunist egotists. (I'll let you guess who falls in the last category).
  • I knew it. @ydoethur is a Russian troll.

    Star Wars: The Last Jedi abuse blamed on Russian trolls and 'political agendas'.

    Report finds half of negative comments aimed at Rian Johnson’s movie came from Twitter bots or trolls, indicating fan backlash was overstated.


    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2018/oct/02/star-wars-the-last-jedi-rian-johnson-abuse-politically-motivated-russian-trolls
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    Brilliant piece here on Melania in Ghana, I love the gentle African humour:

    https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1047029653779697671?s=19
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    So, for those who haven't checked the news yet today, how was Boris's speech? Passionate but empty of detail? Surprisingly insightful? A damp squib? Glorified only by the true believers? Has he swayed the doubters?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,713
    Former Conservative Cabinet Minister Lord Willetts becomes the latest Tory to back the 'People's Vote' campaign for a second EU referendum

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/former-tory-cabinet-minister-lord-willetts-backs-second-brexit-referendum-a3951621.html
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    I knew it. @ydoethur is a Russian troll.

    Star Wars: The Last Jedi abuse blamed on Russian trolls and 'political agendas'.

    Report finds half of negative comments aimed at Rian Johnson’s movie came from Twitter bots or trolls, indicating fan backlash was overstated.


    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2018/oct/02/star-wars-the-last-jedi-rian-johnson-abuse-politically-motivated-russian-trolls

    Don't be dumb Mr Eagles.

    I can't even pronounce 'Khrushchyevka' properly.

    Somebody who speaks French, now, comes under automatic suspicion of treason...
  • Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Can anyone with a straight face say the Tories aren't completely bonkers?

    They're queuing up to eulogize Boris.

    I come not to praise Boris, but to bury him...

    Tories always go for a posh boy with no attention to detail. It is in the genes for them to tug their forelocks to such.
    Labour had the same problem at one time. Do you remember Anthony Charles Lynton Blair? And on the left they had Anthony Wedgewood Benn (a family that has done quite well from an hereditary perspective). Even Corbyn went to a private prep school, and then on to one of the top Grammar schools in the country, where he got two Es at A-level. He lived in quite a large Manor House I recall.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    I knew it. @ydoethur is a Russian troll.

    Star Wars: The Last Jedi abuse blamed on Russian trolls and 'political agendas'.

    Report finds half of negative comments aimed at Rian Johnson’s movie came from Twitter bots or trolls, indicating fan backlash was overstated.


    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2018/oct/02/star-wars-the-last-jedi-rian-johnson-abuse-politically-motivated-russian-trolls

    I never worried about russian trolls on twitter until now. The b*stards.
This discussion has been closed.