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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris got a leadership betting lift from his speech but he’s n

SystemSystem Posts: 11,007
edited October 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris got a leadership betting lift from his speech but he’s now back at a 13% chance

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  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    Sounds like a pretty uneventful day then really (I've still not watched the speech),not even Boris getting much going.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,020
    No prizes for guessing who Ross Thomson is voting for.
    https://twitter.com/hrtbps/status/1047141512771964928?s=21
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,222
    Third like Boris
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    That's a very male line up.

    Time Penny Mordaunt was showing in the betting.....
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,135
    edited October 2018
    Forth like Boris!
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,206
    OK, so I invaded Scotland again (second time within the last month!).

    Yesterday did the Shotts line from Edinburgh to Glasgow, and today added the Gourock, Largs, and Ardrossan branches and the Troon to Kilmarnock line. Slumming it in Glasgow tonight before switching to Edinburgh tomorrow :)
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,135
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    OK, so I invaded Scotland again (second time within the last month!).

    Yesterday did the Shotts line from Edinburgh to Glasgow, and today added the Gourock, Largs, and Ardrossan branches and the Troon to Kilmarnock line. Slumming it in Glasgow tonight before switching to Edinburgh tomorrow :)

    Slumming there too? Glasgow'smiles better.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,206
    geoffw said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    OK, so I invaded Scotland again (second time within the last month!).

    Yesterday did the Shotts line from Edinburgh to Glasgow, and today added the Gourock, Largs, and Ardrossan branches and the Troon to Kilmarnock line. Slumming it in Glasgow tonight before switching to Edinburgh tomorrow :)

    Slumming there too? Glasgow'smiles better.
    It's SHITE being a trainspotter! :lol:
  • Options
    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    kle4 said:

    Sounds like a pretty uneventful day then really (I've still not watched the speech),not even Boris getting much going.

    A damp squib and poorly delivered in my opinion.

    He tried to get media attention by recycling his opinion of chequers from his newspaper columns.

    Johnson is alleged to entertain an audience and I would not mistake intrigue for broad support. I have observed the dumb expression of wonder on peoples faces as he articulates his unimpressive banter. You need someone with bottom as PM, not someone who talks out of his!

    The media like Boris at the moment because he is one of them, he also adds a colourful dynamic to the bilge they discuss in their reports. However, I suspect that they will turn on him pretty savagely should a leadership contest in which he is a candidate. The media are fickle and unreliable force in the dynamics of politics.

  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,135
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    geoffw said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    OK, so I invaded Scotland again (second time within the last month!).

    Yesterday did the Shotts line from Edinburgh to Glasgow, and today added the Gourock, Largs, and Ardrossan branches and the Troon to Kilmarnock line. Slumming it in Glasgow tonight before switching to Edinburgh tomorrow :)

    Slumming there too? Glasgow'smiles better.
    It's SHITE being a trainspotter! :lol:
    Potty-mouthed trainspotter.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,130
    Another performance from United the wrong side of ordinary. They are just not playing like a team at all.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,251
    Boris not leading 10.00 Sky news
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,020
    https://twitter.com/alliehbnews/status/1047228928069423104?s=21
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,251
    DavidL said:

    Another performance from United the wrong side of ordinary. They are just not playing like a team at all.

    Mourinho has destroyed them. Be gone
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Boris not leading 10.00 Sky news

    To be ignored would surely be a worse fate for him than anything else, in his eyes, at least I imagine that to be the case.

    But the fundamentals of him having more personal support than others (though also more opposed) and the dire state of the Chequers plan, have not changed overmuch.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I see Republicans are moving on to "who hasn't been in a drunken fight in a bar?" as their defence of Kavanaugh.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,251
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/alliehbnews/status/1047228928069423104?s=21

    From the Telegraph - Boris own Pravda
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,321
    edited October 2018
    Interesting explanation of why the Greens are doing so well in Germany - essentially by being the anti-AfD - love immigration, up with Europe, let's hear it for LGBT, etc. A better strategy than trying to pinch some of their policies - if people like the AfD, they'll vote for the real thing.

    Possibly also true in Britain in various ways.

    https://mailchi.mp/euractiv/the-brief-powered-by-yara-the-end-of-rajoy-446399?e=b88720520b
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    NickPalmer said:

    Interesting explanation of why the Greens are doing so well in Germany - essentially by being the anti-AfD - love immigration, up with Europe, let's hear it for LGBT, etc. A better strategy than trying to pinch some of their policies - if people like the AfD, they'll vote for the real thing.

    Possibly also true in Britain in various ways.

    https://mailchi.mp/euractiv/the-brief-powered-by-yara-the-end-of-rajoy-446399?e=b88720520b

    Sounds like a pretty basic marketing concept, although there surely have been cases where parties have, at least in the short term, bolstered support by hardening stances to be more like extreme voices.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,020
    https://twitter.com/alliehbnews/status/1047232141594173441?s=21
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Who is the stop Boris unity candidate?
  • Options
    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    DavidL said:

    Another performance from United the wrong side of ordinary. They are just not playing like a team at all.

    Mourinho has destroyed them. Be gone
    It’s bizarre what has happened to Utd. I used to loathe them because they won everything, but I would still always watch them and root for them in Europe. They were box office.

    Tonight I looked through BT Sport and thought ‘oh it’s only Utd tonight’ and flicked over. They are now mundane. Funny old world.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,748
    BBC pumping out a completely untrue account of the banking crisis. It's very well stage-managed. They have all the players, and their stories are as one. Not true, but this'll be BBC history.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/alliehbnews/status/1047228928069423104?s=21

    Interesting photo of May there :D
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,130
    Anazina said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    DavidL said:

    Another performance from United the wrong side of ordinary. They are just not playing like a team at all.

    Mourinho has destroyed them. Be gone
    It’s bizarre what has happened to Utd. I used to loathe them because they won everything, but I would still always watch them and root for them in Europe. They were box office.

    Tonight I looked through BT Sport and thought ‘oh it’s only Utd tonight’ and flicked over. They are now mundane. Funny old world.
    You didn't miss much. A defence that doesn't connect with its midfield and is left constantly exposed down the flanks as a result, a midfield who don't link with the forwards and 3 forwards who are all quite skilled but could really do with being introduced to each other. Not a hint of teamwork anywhere on the pitch, no understanding about what they are going to do so the ball is constantly given away, it's unbelievably frustrating. What they actually need is a manager.
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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Jonathan said:

    Who is the stop Boris unity candidate?

    Javid is the closest I can think of
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940
    Jonathan said:

    Who is the stop Boris unity candidate?

    Given the state of British politics, they'll probably settle on Chris Grayling :)
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/alliehbnews/status/1047228928069423104?s=21

    From the Telegraph - Boris own Pravda
    I thought exactly the same...
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,251
    edited October 2018
    Anazina said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    DavidL said:

    Another performance from United the wrong side of ordinary. They are just not playing like a team at all.

    Mourinho has destroyed them. Be gone
    It’s bizarre what has happened to Utd. I used to loathe them because they won everything, but I would still always watch them and root for them in Europe. They were box office.

    Tonight I looked through BT Sport and thought ‘oh it’s only Utd tonight’ and flicked over. They are now mundane. Funny old world.
    You are kind. They are pedestrian, play backwards and sideways, do not know each other, and have no desire.

    Ironic that Beckham, Giggs, Gary Neville and Butt were there, and Rio and Scholes in the studio

    None of them are near those players

    Mourinho has to go
  • Options
    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/alliehbnews/status/1047228928069423104?s=21

    From the Telegraph - Boris own Pravda
    Indeed but should Boris ever become PM it will be the DT pulling the strings not the other way around!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited October 2018
    Boris certainly delivered a barnstorming speech to Tories at conference today with activists queing up to here him in the way they used to do for Heseltine's oratory.

    Though it is still possible Javid could end up as Major and beat Boris' Heseltine and Hunt's Hurd if May suffers a Thatcher like ousting
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    edited October 2018
    Stereotomy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Who is the stop Boris unity candidate?

    Javid is the closest I can think of
    Javid who virtually nobody turned up to listen to this morning?

    At this point I'd say with the exceptions of Boris and JRM the only Cabinet members to have had a "good conference" are Hunt and Raab - But Raab is ahead because he was a Leaver and Con will be wary of going to another Remainer pretending to be a Leaver like they did with Theresa May.

    That will be Hunt's problem. Javid also has the same problem in addition to being too much like Continuity May and Hammond.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2018
    Only 11 and a bit years to go before China's population peaks according to this. I think the UK population is expected to still be rising at that time.

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/chinas-population-to-peak-to-1-45-billion-by-2030/articleshow/57603275.cms
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,251
    HYUFD said:

    Boris certainly delivered a barnstorming speech to Tories at conference today with activists queing up to here him in the way they used to do for Heseltine.

    Though it is still possible Javid could end up as Major and beat Boris' Heseltine and Hunt's Hurd if May suffers a Thatcher like ousting

    The start of his speech was excellent and I was ready to be impressed but he became tedious and faded

    Boris like Corbyn has his fan club but he has to reach out and he did not do that today

    I genuinely believe he is clever but not able to keep it going without rambling and losing himself.

    I have no idea who is likely to succeed TM or when. Indeed it is not possible to be definitive, just speculation
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,130
    I would be fascinated to see what the sourcing for the Telegraph story was. It seems to me that every minister speaking from all wings of the party have gone out of their way to pledge allegiance to May and make it clear that they support her. Even Boris today made it clear he wanted the May of her earlier speeches rather than Chequers.
  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,597
    Stereotomy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Who is the stop Boris unity candidate?

    Javid is the closest I can think of
    After the experience of a Remain voting PM who claimed afterwards to be picking up the mantle of Leave when running for leader, won't the Tory members be wary of repeating the experience?
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940
    DavidL said:

    I would be fascinated to see what the sourcing for the Telegraph story was. It seems to me that every minister speaking from all wings of the party have gone out of their way to pledge allegiance to May and make it clear that they support her. Even Boris today made it clear he wanted the May of her earlier speeches rather than Chequers.

    I can exclusively reveal the source of the story to be one John Borison of Uxbridge.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,251
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Who is the stop Boris unity candidate?

    Javid is the closest I can think of
    After the experience of a Remain voting PM who claimed afterwards to be picking up the mantle of Leave when running for leader, won't the Tory members be wary of repeating the experience?
    Tory members will vote for Boris or JRM

    However, the mps have the choice of putting two to the members, and he has made a lot of his fellow mps very angry with a stop Boris campaign
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    AndyJS said:

    Only 11 and a bit years to go before China's population peaks according to this. I think the UK population is expected to still be rising at that time.

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/chinas-population-to-peak-to-1-45-billion-by-2030/articleshow/57603275.cms

    India will have overtaken China as the world's largest population in a few decades
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    GIN1138 said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Who is the stop Boris unity candidate?

    Javid is the closest I can think of
    Javid who virtually nobody turned up to listen to this morning?

    At this point I'd say with the exceptions of Boris and JRM the only Cabinet members to have had a "good conference" are Hunt and Raab - But Raab is ahead because he was a Leaver and Con will be wary of going to another Remainer pretending to be a Leaver like they did with Theresa May.

    That will be Hunt's problem. Javid also has the same problem in addition to being too much like Continuity May and Hammond.
    Hunt hardly had a great conference after half of Europe's Ambassadors slagged off his speech
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited October 2018
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris certainly delivered a barnstorming speech to Tories at conference today with activists queing up to here him in the way they used to do for Heseltine.

    Though it is still possible Javid could end up as Major and beat Boris' Heseltine and Hunt's Hurd if May suffers a Thatcher like ousting

    The start of his speech was excellent and I was ready to be impressed but he became tedious and faded

    Boris like Corbyn has his fan club but he has to reach out and he did not do that today

    I genuinely believe he is clever but not able to keep it going without rambling and losing himself.

    I have no idea who is likely to succeed TM or when. Indeed it is not possible to be definitive, just speculation
    Boris like Corbyn or indeed Alex Salmond is a Rockstar politician with passionate supporters who inspire people to vote for them, even if half the country loathes them at the same time
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    edited October 2018
    GIN1138 said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Who is the stop Boris unity candidate?

    Javid is the closest I can think of
    Javid who virtually nobody turned up to listen to this morning?

    At this point I'd say with the exceptions of Boris and JRM the only Cabinet members to have had a "good conference" are Hunt and Raab - But Raab is ahead because he was a Leaver and Con will be wary of going to another Remainer pretending to be a Leaver like they did with Theresa May.

    That will be Hunt's problem. Javid also has the same problem in addition to being too much like Continuity May and Hammond.
    Yeah, not saying he's going to be leader, just that he's the closest thing to a unity leader option I can think of
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,135
    Sayonara Jeremy.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    This politician's party has just got walloped in Quebec:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45592997
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Who is the stop Boris unity candidate?

    Javid is the closest I can think of
    Javid who virtually nobody turned up to listen to this morning?

    At this point I'd say with the exceptions of Boris and JRM the only Cabinet members to have had a "good conference" are Hunt and Raab - But Raab is ahead because he was a Leaver and Con will be wary of going to another Remainer pretending to be a Leaver like they did with Theresa May.

    That will be Hunt's problem. Javid also has the same problem in addition to being too much like Continuity May and Hammond.
    Hunt hardly had a great conference after half of Europe's Ambassadors slagged off his speech
    Hunt being slagged off half of Europe's ambassador's would play well with the audience he's talking to this week...
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,528
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Only 11 and a bit years to go before China's population peaks according to this. I think the UK population is expected to still be rising at that time.

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/chinas-population-to-peak-to-1-45-billion-by-2030/articleshow/57603275.cms

    India will have overtaken China as the world's largest population in a few decades
    Africa over takes Asia as the most populated continent this century.

    In 1950 Europe had three times Africa's population.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,135
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Who is the stop Boris unity candidate?

    Javid is the closest I can think of
    Javid who virtually nobody turned up to listen to this morning?

    At this point I'd say with the exceptions of Boris and JRM the only Cabinet members to have had a "good conference" are Hunt and Raab - But Raab is ahead because he was a Leaver and Con will be wary of going to another Remainer pretending to be a Leaver like they did with Theresa May.

    That will be Hunt's problem. Javid also has the same problem in addition to being too much like Continuity May and Hammond.
    Hunt hardly had a great conference after half of Europe's Ambassadors slagged off his speech
    Hunt being slagged off half of Europe's ambassador's would play well with the audience he's talking to this week...
    He's trying (too hard) to make up lost ground for his remainer position two years ago.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,130
    dixiedean said:

    DavidL said:

    I would be fascinated to see what the sourcing for the Telegraph story was. It seems to me that every minister speaking from all wings of the party have gone out of their way to pledge allegiance to May and make it clear that they support her. Even Boris today made it clear he wanted the May of her earlier speeches rather than Chequers.

    I can exclusively reveal the source of the story to be one John Borison of Uxbridge.
    LOL
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited October 2018
    Tesla has said it produced a record number of vehicles in the most recent quarter, beating back doubts about the firm's ability to boost manufacturing.

    The electric carmaker said it made more than 80,000 vehicles, including more than 53,000 of the Model 3 - roughly in line with forecasts.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45726170

    Not allowed to be chairman for 3 years...

    image
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    SeanT said:

    Boris is closer to being PM, right now, than at any point in his career. But how does he seize the crown?

    He's dependent on events - despite the disdain many hold for him, if May cannot scramble a deal that passes the EU and the Commons, then he at least has a position and supporters clearly behind him.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,135
    SeanT said:

    Boris is closer to being PM, right now, than at any point in his career. But how does he seize the crown?

    He sends in the 48th letter.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    AndyJS said:

    This politician's party has just got walloped in Quebec:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45592997

    Pretty massive swings too.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    I thought the Tories were losing their mind when they hyped up JRM, but Bonking Boris...like really...are they out of their minds. The country isn't crying out for the opposite of him, hence why magic grandpa dodgy history is given such a free pass by so many.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    AndyJS said:

    This politician's party has just got walloped in Quebec:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45592997

    I don't live in Canada and even I know food is bloody expensive there...$75 for one maybe, but even then.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    DavidL said:

    I would be fascinated to see what the sourcing for the Telegraph story was. It seems to me that every minister speaking from all wings of the party have gone out of their way to pledge allegiance to May and make it clear that they support her. Even Boris today made it clear he wanted the May of her earlier speeches rather than Chequers.

    Same as how Boris and others publicly said Cameron could remain PM if he lost the referendum, but everyone knew that would not happen - since they knew it they could appear loyal, while clearly agitating for something which required the other's removal.
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Only 11 and a bit years to go before China's population peaks according to this. I think the UK population is expected to still be rising at that time.

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/chinas-population-to-peak-to-1-45-billion-by-2030/articleshow/57603275.cms

    India will have overtaken China as the world's largest population in a few decades
    It will still be a very long way off being remotely comparable in economic or geopolitical terms though.

    China was able to put its new urban populations to work in factories. With the rise of robots and automation, India and Africa won’t be able to repeat the trick.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Who is the stop Boris unity candidate?

    Javid is the closest I can think of
    Javid who virtually nobody turned up to listen to this morning?

    At this point I'd say with the exceptions of Boris and JRM the only Cabinet members to have had a "good conference" are Hunt and Raab - But Raab is ahead because he was a Leaver and Con will be wary of going to another Remainer pretending to be a Leaver like they did with Theresa May.

    That will be Hunt's problem. Javid also has the same problem in addition to being too much like Continuity May and Hammond.
    Hunt hardly had a great conference after half of Europe's Ambassadors slagged off his speech
    Are you really a member? Hunt's problem isn't what he said, but that he's a tryhard. The next leader will have to be a true beleaver, not some watered down, lukewarm closet remainer.
  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,597
    DavidL said:

    I would be fascinated to see what the sourcing for the Telegraph story was. It seems to me that every minister speaking from all wings of the party have gone out of their way to pledge allegiance to May and make it clear that they support her. Even Boris today made it clear he wanted the May of her earlier speeches rather than Chequers.

    Half the Cabinet want her job. They are for now content to go along with the pretence that the Dead Parrot of Chequers (Conservative Blue variety) is alive, preferring for it to be left to the EU to administer the last rites. If the EU wields the knife through continuing with its present line it reduces May's dogmatic position to one of absurdity - if it hasn't already - and then the act of being seen to trigger a leadership challenge will no longer carry any risks. In the meantime they are trying to act like loyalists and hoping that Johnson sticks his neck out a bit too far and is the first to act.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,528
    SeanT said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Only 11 and a bit years to go before China's population peaks according to this. I think the UK population is expected to still be rising at that time.

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/chinas-population-to-peak-to-1-45-billion-by-2030/articleshow/57603275.cms

    India will have overtaken China as the world's largest population in a few decades
    Africa over takes Asia as the most populated continent this century.

    In 1950 Europe had three times Africa's population.
    Economically irrelevant until the 23rd century at the earliest. And by then we will probably have been taken over by robots, wielding tungsten dildos.

    Africa will never matter. Sadly.
    It will.

    There is more to immigration than economic pull, there is demographic push and climate change forcing people to move.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    SeanT said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Only 11 and a bit years to go before China's population peaks according to this. I think the UK population is expected to still be rising at that time.

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/chinas-population-to-peak-to-1-45-billion-by-2030/articleshow/57603275.cms

    India will have overtaken China as the world's largest population in a few decades
    Africa over takes Asia as the most populated continent this century.

    In 1950 Europe had three times Africa's population.
    Economically irrelevant until the 23rd century at the earliest. And by then we will probably have been taken over by robots, wielding tungsten dildos.

    Africa will never matter. Sadly.
    It does to the Church though if it has any sense, the fastest growth of both the Anglican and Catholic Churches is in Africa which is why there will surely be a black Archbishop of Canterbury or a black Pope sooner rather than later.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    Boris is closer to being PM, right now, than at any point in his career. But how does he seize the crown?

    Not really.

    He was closer on the night of the vote, before the result was announced. If Brexit had been defeated he would have been PM in days.

    He could taste it. Then the next morning he looked like he spent the night vomiting.

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited October 2018
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    This politician's party has just got walloped in Quebec:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45592997

    Pretty massive swings too.

    First time ever the centre right Coalition Avenir Quebec has won a majority in the province gaining 53 seats, it is the equivalent of the Tories winning a majority in Scotland.


    The governing Liberals lost 36 seats and the nationalist Parti Quebecois lost 19 seats and the small leftwing pro independence Quebec Solidaire gained 7
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,251
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    DavidL said:

    I would be fascinated to see what the sourcing for the Telegraph story was. It seems to me that every minister speaking from all wings of the party have gone out of their way to pledge allegiance to May and make it clear that they support her. Even Boris today made it clear he wanted the May of her earlier speeches rather than Chequers.

    Half the Cabinet want her job. They are for now content to go along with the pretence that the Dead Parrot of Chequers (Conservative Blue variety) is alive, preferring for it to be left to the EU to administer the last rites. If the EU wields the knife through continuing with its present line it reduces May's dogmatic position to one of absurdity - if it hasn't already - and then the act of being seen to trigger a leadership challenge will no longer carry any risks. In the meantime they are trying to act like loyalists and hoping that Johnson sticks his neck out a bit too far and is the first to act.
    It does not work that way. Johnson cannot be the first to act. 48 letters have to be received by Graham Brady and then TM would fall if her opponents achieved 156 conservative mps votes. TM would win that vnoc easily and that is why she is not being challenged as she cannot be challenged again for one year
  • Options
    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    RoyalBlue said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Only 11 and a bit years to go before China's population peaks according to this. I think the UK population is expected to still be rising at that time.

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/chinas-population-to-peak-to-1-45-billion-by-2030/articleshow/57603275.cms

    India will have overtaken China as the world's largest population in a few decades
    It will still be a very long way off being remotely comparable in economic or geopolitical terms though.
    I think you might be a teensy bit off with that forecast.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    SeanT said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I thought the Tories were losing their mind when they hyped up JRM, but Bonking Boris...like really...are they out of their minds. The country isn't crying out for the opposite of him, hence why magic grandpa dodgy history is given such a free pass by so many.

    People laughed at him and then they voted him into the London mayoralty.

    He is is a proven winner who benefits during campaigning, I can see him easily beating Corbs. As I said: the problem is if Labour change course and find a new leader interim. Then he would struggle.
    The difference is now he has pissed off loads of people with his part in Brexit.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,619
    SeanT said:

    ... by then we will probably have been taken over by robots, wielding tungsten dildos...

    Pause.

    What????

  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,321
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AndyJS said:

    This politician's party has just got walloped in Quebec:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45592997

    I don't live in Canada and even I know food is bloody expensive there...$75 for one maybe, but even then.
    I don't like the pop quiz approach to politicians, tempting though it is for journalists. I shop in supermarkets 2-3 times a week, but I'm not sure I could give an instant answer to the amount needed to feed a family of 3, let alone the answer that happens to fit the basis for the question. And of course it'll only get publicised if you get it wrong.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,528
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    DavidL said:

    I would be fascinated to see what the sourcing for the Telegraph story was. It seems to me that every minister speaking from all wings of the party have gone out of their way to pledge allegiance to May and make it clear that they support her. Even Boris today made it clear he wanted the May of her earlier speeches rather than Chequers.

    Half the Cabinet want her job. They are for now content to go along with the pretence that the Dead Parrot of Chequers (Conservative Blue variety) is alive, preferring for it to be left to the EU to administer the last rites. If the EU wields the knife through continuing with its present line it reduces May's dogmatic position to one of absurdity - if it hasn't already - and then the act of being seen to trigger a leadership challenge will no longer carry any risks. In the meantime they are trying to act like loyalists and hoping that Johnson sticks his neck out a bit too far and is the first to act.
    It does not work that way. Johnson cannot be the first to act. 48 letters have to be received by Graham Brady and then TM would fall if her opponents achieved 156 conservative mps votes. TM would win that vnoc easily and that is why she is not being challenged as she cannot be challenged again for one year
    Yes, bizzarely May needs those letters to go in to shore up her position for a year.
  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,597
    SeanT said:

    Boris is closer to being PM, right now, than at any point in his career. But how does he seize the crown?

    By waiting. Wait for a few more weeks for May's Chequers offer to completely unravel in the face of EU political intransigence. Then let the letters go in. And then wait a bit longer in the hope that another challenger throws their hat in the ring to challenge May first, before he does so himself.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    edited October 2018
    SeanT said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Only 11 and a bit years to go before China's population peaks according to this. I think the UK population is expected to still be rising at that time.

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/chinas-population-to-peak-to-1-45-billion-by-2030/articleshow/57603275.cms

    India will have overtaken China as the world's largest population in a few decades
    Africa over takes Asia as the most populated continent this century.

    In 1950 Europe had three times Africa's population.
    Economically irrelevant until the 23rd century at the earliest. And by then we will probably have been taken over by robots, wielding tungsten dildos.

    Your next novel is to be science fiction I see, an interesting direction.

    Attack of the Tungsten Dildo Robots, from the bestselling author of The Ice Twins
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,528
    SeanT said:

    Foxy said:

    SeanT said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Only 11 and a bit years to go before China's population peaks according to this. I think the UK population is expected to still be rising at that time.

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/chinas-population-to-peak-to-1-45-billion-by-2030/articleshow/57603275.cms

    India will have overtaken China as the world's largest population in a few decades
    Africa over takes Asia as the most populated continent this century.

    In 1950 Europe had three times Africa's population.
    Economically irrelevant until the 23rd century at the earliest. And by then we will probably have been taken over by robots, wielding tungsten dildos.

    Africa will never matter. Sadly.
    It will.

    There is more to immigration than economic pull, there is demographic push and climate change forcing people to move.
    That's true, African migration will matter. Esp into Europe.

    My point was more re global politics. e.g. I cannot see an African superpower emerging at at any time, ever. No country is big enough, none has the innate human potential in sufficient size.
    Nigeria will become 3rd most populous country on the globe by the end of the century, displacing the USA.

    Africa is the young continent, and increasingly that is where students in developed countries will come from. May's highly skilled migrants will increasingly come from South of the Med.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    SeanT said:

    Foxy said:

    SeanT said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Only 11 and a bit years to go before China's population peaks according to this. I think the UK population is expected to still be rising at that time.

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/chinas-population-to-peak-to-1-45-billion-by-2030/articleshow/57603275.cms

    India will have overtaken China as the world's largest population in a few decades
    Africa over takes Asia as the most populated continent this century.

    In 1950 Europe had three times Africa's population.
    Economically irrelevant until the 23rd century at the earliest. And by then we will probably have been taken over by robots, wielding tungsten dildos.

    Africa will never matter. Sadly.
    It will.

    There is more to immigration than economic pull, there is demographic push and climate change forcing people to move.
    That's true, African migration will matter. Esp into Europe.

    My point was more re global politics. e.g. I cannot see an African superpower emerging at at any time, ever. No country is big enough, none has the innate human potential in sufficient size.
    Long after we're all dead, Nigeria may well matter on the global stage through shear weight of population.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    NickPalmer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AndyJS said:

    This politician's party has just got walloped in Quebec:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45592997

    I don't live in Canada and even I know food is bloody expensive there...$75 for one maybe, but even then.
    I don't like the pop quiz approach to politicians, tempting though it is for journalists. I shop in supermarkets 2-3 times a week, but I'm not sure I could give an instant answer to the amount needed to feed a family of 3, let alone the answer that happens to fit the basis for the question. And of course it'll only get publicised if you get it wrong.
    Were you ever subject to such a quiz?
  • Options
    LordOfReasonLordOfReason Posts: 457
    viewcode said:

    SeanT said:

    ... by then we will probably have been taken over by robots, wielding tungsten dildos...

    Pause.

    What????

    Bring it on I say. Now the summers over with, the nights drawing in, I’m getting bored.

    Are we allowed to put ticklers on the dildos?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,206
    viewcode said:

    SeanT said:

    ... by then we will probably have been taken over by robots, wielding tungsten dildos...

    Pause.

    What????

    "Do Androids dream of Tungsten Dildos?"
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,206
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Only 11 and a bit years to go before China's population peaks according to this. I think the UK population is expected to still be rising at that time.

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/chinas-population-to-peak-to-1-45-billion-by-2030/articleshow/57603275.cms

    India will have overtaken China as the world's largest population in a few decades
    Africa over takes Asia as the most populated continent this century.

    Africa will overtake India + China + rest of Asia? Seriously?
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,251
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    SeanT said:

    Boris is closer to being PM, right now, than at any point in his career. But how does he seize the crown?

    By waiting. Wait for a few more weeks for May's Chequers offer to completely unravel in the face of EU political intransigence. Then let the letters go in. And then wait a bit longer in the hope that another challenger throws their hat in the ring to challenge May first, before he does so himself.
    You really do not know our system. I have explained it to you

    If TM lost a vnoc she would stand down and a full leadership contest would take place with at least 6 -8 candidates, one of course would be Boris. Televised hustings would take place and then a vote is taken by all conservative mps to put two of the candidates to the members. At present Boris has annoyed so many of his fellow colleagues it is doubtful he would get in the final two. However, if he did it is more than likely he would win

    The whole process would take 2 - 3 months and I would expect TM to be a caretaker pending the appointment of her successor.

    I hope that you accept that as a membership I do know the process
  • Options
    LordOfReasonLordOfReason Posts: 457
    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Who is the stop Boris unity candidate?

    Javid is the closest I can think of
    Javid who virtually nobody turned up to listen to this morning?

    At this point I'd say with the exceptions of Boris and JRM the only Cabinet members to have had a "good conference" are Hunt and Raab - But Raab is ahead because he was a Leaver and Con will be wary of going to another Remainer pretending to be a Leaver like they did with Theresa May.

    That will be Hunt's problem. Javid also has the same problem in addition to being too much like Continuity May and Hammond.
    Hunt hardly had a great conference after half of Europe's Ambassadors slagged off his speech
    Are you really a member? Hunt's problem isn't what he said, but that he's a tryhard. The next leader will have to be a true beleaver, not some watered down, lukewarm closet remainer.
    Can Hunts new nickname be Lukewarm? P l e a s e
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Anazina said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Only 11 and a bit years to go before China's population peaks according to this. I think the UK population is expected to still be rising at that time.

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/chinas-population-to-peak-to-1-45-billion-by-2030/articleshow/57603275.cms

    India will have overtaken China as the world's largest population in a few decades
    It will still be a very long way off being remotely comparable in economic or geopolitical terms though.
    I think you might be a teensy bit off with that forecast.
    China’s economy is 5 times larger than India’s. It does more international trade than any other nation, is the greatest manufacturing nation, and is already competing with the West in many technologies.

    We shall see!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris certainly delivered a barnstorming speech to Tories at conference today with activists queing up to here him in the way they used to do for Heseltine.

    Though it is still possible Javid could end up as Major and beat Boris' Heseltine and Hunt's Hurd if May suffers a Thatcher like ousting

    The start of his speech was excellent and I was ready to be impressed but he became tedious and faded

    Boris like Corbyn has his fan club but he has to reach out and he did not do that today

    I genuinely believe he is clever but not able to keep it going without rambling and losing himself.

    I have no idea who is likely to succeed TM or when. Indeed it is not possible to be definitive, just speculation
    Boris like Corbyn or indeed Alex Salmond is a Rockstar politician with passionate supporters who inspire people to vote for them, even if half the country loathes them at the same time
    I think Boris would beat Corbyn. There would be unprecedented opposition to both, and the the opposition to Corbyn would be greater. It would be a Least Worst vote.

    The problem for Tories is if Labour get rid of Jezbollah and elect ANYONE remotely plausible, from Thornberry to Starmer, Then Labour (right now) would cruise to victory.

    Interesting times blah blah blah
    Boris would I think beat Corbyn but he also would not get a deal with the EU, probably not even a transition period, so we must stick with May for now. Labour's membership is as loyal to Corbyn as ever
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    This politician's party has just got walloped in Quebec:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45592997

    Pretty massive swings too.

    First time ever the centre right Coalition Avenir Quebec has won a majority in the province gaining 53 seats, it is the equivalent of the Tories winning a majority in Scotland.


    The governing Liberals lost 36 seats and the nationalist Parti Quebecois lost 19 seats and the small leftwing pro independence Quebec Solidaire gained 7
    It is somewhat more complex than that. But is a sea change for Quebec, and good for the long term future of Canadian Federalism. Politics there has long been pro-independence PQ vs anti-independence Liberals (which incidentally, encompasses Liberals, Conservative and NDP voters federally). The Liberals have 70% of the Anglophone vote.
    The PQ vote is gradually dying off. They have failed to attract the young, just banging on about independence all the time.
    The CAQ and QS have emerged as genuine right and left alternatives to both major parties by parking the independence issue and focussing instead on actual competence and policy.
    Which transforms the usual independence/federalist bickering which all too often became a proxy Francophone/Anglophone fight.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    RoyalBlue said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Only 11 and a bit years to go before China's population peaks according to this. I think the UK population is expected to still be rising at that time.

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/chinas-population-to-peak-to-1-45-billion-by-2030/articleshow/57603275.cms

    India will have overtaken China as the world's largest population in a few decades
    It will still be a very long way off being remotely comparable in economic or geopolitical terms though.

    China was able to put its new urban populations to work in factories. With the rise of robots and automation, India and Africa won’t be able to repeat the trick.
    Robots and automation will be a problem for job creation in the West too, hence discussions of a UBI etc
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Only 11 and a bit years to go before China's population peaks according to this. I think the UK population is expected to still be rising at that time.

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/chinas-population-to-peak-to-1-45-billion-by-2030/articleshow/57603275.cms

    India will have overtaken China as the world's largest population in a few decades
    It will still be a very long way off being remotely comparable in economic or geopolitical terms though.

    China was able to put its new urban populations to work in factories. With the rise of robots and automation, India and Africa won’t be able to repeat the trick.
    Robots and automation will be a problem for job creation in the West too, hence discussions of a UBI etc
    Absolutely, but it’s much better to deal with that with a GDP per capita of $40,000 than $2,000.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2018
    Interesting from Rolf Degen:

    "The dissemination of hostile political rumors is not driven by partisan logic, but by a chaotic motivation to burn down the entire political ‘cosmos’, grounded in thwarted desire for higher status"

    https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1047188310492364800
  • Options
    LordOfReasonLordOfReason Posts: 457
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Only 11 and a bit years to go before China's population peaks according to this. I think the UK population is expected to still be rising at that time.

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/chinas-population-to-peak-to-1-45-billion-by-2030/articleshow/57603275.cms

    India will have overtaken China as the world's largest population in a few decades
    Africa over takes Asia as the most populated continent this century.

    In 1950 Europe had three times Africa's population.
    Economically irrelevant until the 23rd century at the earliest. And by then we will probably have been taken over by robots, wielding tungsten dildos.

    Your next novel is to be science fiction I see, an interesting direction.
    Is is. Actually. Tho disguised as a classic domestic psych thriller.
    Please include some sort futuristic orgasmatron.

    Can I make serious point about robots? Are you familiar with RUR? I understand robot is old Slavonic word for slave. Before we start to create really Inteligent ones, can we instead switch to a word meaning friend, or business buddy?
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,251
    Time to switch off

    Have a great nights rest everyone

    Good night folks
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited October 2018
    SeanT said:

    Foxy said:

    SeanT said:

    Foxy said:

    SeanT said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Only 11 and a bit years to go before China's population peaks according to this. I think the UK population is expected to still be rising at that time.

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/chinas-population-to-peak-to-1-45-billion-by-2030/articleshow/57603275.cms

    India will have overtaken China as the world's largest population in a few decades
    Africa over takes Asia as the most populated continent this century.

    In 1950 Europe had three times Africa's population.
    Economically irrelevant until the 23rd century at the earliest. And by then we will probably have been taken over by robots, wielding tungsten dildos.

    Africa will never matter. Sadly.
    It will.

    There is more to immigration than economic pull, there is demographic push and climate change forcing people to move.
    That's true, African migration will matter. Esp into Europe.

    My point was more re global politics. e.g. I cannot see an African superpower emerging at at any time, ever. No country is big enough, none has the innate human potential in sufficient size.
    Nigeria will become 3rd most populous country on the globe by the end of the century, displacing the USA.

    Africa is the young continent, and increasingly that is where students in developed countries will come from. May's highly skilled migrants will increasingly come from South of the Med.
    Piffle. Nigeria is 1. fucked, 2, comparatively tiny (compared to continent sized hegemons like China, USA, EU, India, and 3, its projected population growth (the only way it is a contender for this top tier) will very soon drop like a stone (as has happened in every developing country)

    Apart from that, spot on.
    According to PWC Nigeria will be in the top 10 world economies by 2050, surpassing Germany, the United Kingdom, France and Saudi Arabia.



    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2016/03/pwc-projects-nigerias-economy-rank-top-10-2050/
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    However, you're wrong that he expected to lose and was desolated thereby. Several indy sources say he was delighted to win (as was Gove) they were however shocked by rumours of Cameron's resignation and decided to adopt a suitably sober OMG this-world-is-changing demeanour.

    Would these "Indy" sources include the aforementioned John Borison by any chance?

    Winning has been the end of him. Was he really stupid enough to want that?

    If the win was his aim, and he was delighted, why didn't he press his advantage and defeat May? He wasn't in any way prepared to win. It wasn't in his plan. And now he is fucked.
  • Options
    LordOfReasonLordOfReason Posts: 457
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    SeanT said:

    Boris is closer to being PM, right now, than at any point in his career. But how does he seize the crown?

    By waiting. Wait for a few more weeks for May's Chequers offer to completely unravel in the face of EU political intransigence. Then let the letters go in. And then wait a bit longer in the hope that another challenger throws their hat in the ring to challenge May first, before he does so himself.
    You really do not know our system. I have explained it to you

    If TM lost a vnoc she would stand down and a full leadership contest would take place with at least 6 -8 candidates, one of course would be Boris. Televised hustings would take place and then a vote is taken by all conservative mps to put two of the candidates to the members. At present Boris has annoyed so many of his fellow colleagues it is doubtful he would get in the final two. However, if he did it is more than likely he would win

    The whole process would take 2 - 3 months and I would expect TM to be a caretaker pending the appointment of her successor.

    I hope that you accept that as a membership I do know the process
    Simple fact is, that isn’t what happened last time, how May got it.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/fatshez/status/1047251860485279745
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,528
    edited October 2018
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Only 11 and a bit years to go before China's population peaks according to this. I think the UK population is expected to still be rising at that time.

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/chinas-population-to-peak-to-1-45-billion-by-2030/articleshow/57603275.cms

    India will have overtaken China as the world's largest population in a few decades
    Africa over takes Asia as the most populated continent this century.

    Africa will overtake India + China + rest of Asia? Seriously?
    Yes, and much of that growth is baked in already, even if fertility drops precipitously, due to drops in child mortality, and increases in adult life expectancy:


    https://www.businessinsider.com/africas-population-explosion-will-change-humanity-2015-8
  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,597
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    SeanT said:

    Boris is closer to being PM, right now, than at any point in his career. But how does he seize the crown?

    By waiting. Wait for a few more weeks for May's Chequers offer to completely unravel in the face of EU political intransigence. Then let the letters go in. And then wait a bit longer in the hope that another challenger throws their hat in the ring to challenge May first, before he does so himself.
    You really do not know our system. I have explained it to you

    If TM lost a vnoc she would stand down and a full leadership contest would take place with at least 6 -8 candidates, one of course would be Boris. Televised hustings would take place and then a vote is taken by all conservative mps to put two of the candidates to the members. At present Boris has annoyed so many of his fellow colleagues it is doubtful he would get in the final two. However, if he did it is more than likely he would win

    The whole process would take 2 - 3 months and I would expect TM to be a caretaker pending the appointment of her successor.

    I hope that you accept that as a membership I do know the process
    Fair enough. I withdraw the last sentence. The rest stands. Best to wait a bit longer before encouraging the submission of letters and let May founder further in a sea of her own stubbornness.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    This politician's party has just got walloped in Quebec:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45592997

    Pretty massive swings too.

    First time ever the centre right Coalition Avenir Quebec has won a majority in the province gaining 53 seats, it is the equivalent of the Tories winning a majority in Scotland.


    The governing Liberals lost 36 seats and the nationalist Parti Quebecois lost 19 seats and the small leftwing pro independence Quebec Solidaire gained 7
    It is somewhat more complex than that. But is a sea change for Quebec, and good for the long term future of Canadian Federalism. Politics there has long been pro-independence PQ vs anti-independence Liberals (which incidentally, encompasses Liberals, Conservative and NDP voters federally). The Liberals have 70% of the Anglophone vote.
    The PQ vote is gradually dying off. They have failed to attract the young, just banging on about independence all the time.
    The CAQ and QS have emerged as genuine right and left alternatives to both major parties by parking the independence issue and focussing instead on actual competence and policy.
    Which transforms the usual independence/federalist bickering which all too often became a proxy Francophone/Anglophone fight.
    Indeed but it has taken 38 years since Quebec's first independence referendum in 1980 for independence finally to be parked to one side and the PQ to no longer be in the two largest parties in the province, so Scotland has a while yet of independence/unionist bickering to go
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,206
    Foxy said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Only 11 and a bit years to go before China's population peaks according to this. I think the UK population is expected to still be rising at that time.

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/chinas-population-to-peak-to-1-45-billion-by-2030/articleshow/57603275.cms

    India will have overtaken China as the world's largest population in a few decades
    Africa over takes Asia as the most populated continent this century.

    Africa will overtake India + China + rest of Asia? Seriously?
    Yes, and much of that growth is baked in already, even if fertility drops precipitously, due to drops in child mortality, and increases in adult life expectancy:


    https://www.businessinsider.com/africas-population-explosion-will-change-humanity-2015-8
    Africa's population will top 3 billion? Seriously?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/fatshez/status/1047251860485279745

    I doubt the Euro, tell 20% unemployment Greece and 16% unemployment Spain how that works
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,251
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    SeanT said:

    Boris is closer to being PM, right now, than at any point in his career. But how does he seize the crown?

    By waiting. Wait for a few more weeks for May's Chequers offer to completely unravel in the face of EU political intransigence. Then let the letters go in. And then wait a bit longer in the hope that another challenger throws their hat in the ring to challenge May first, before he does so himself.
    You really do not know our system. I have explained it to you

    If TM lost a vnoc she would stand down and a full leadership contest would take place with at least 6 -8 candidates, one of course would be Boris. Televised hustings would take place and then a vote is taken by all conservative mps to put two of the candidates to the members. At present Boris has annoyed so many of his fellow colleagues it is doubtful he would get in the final two. However, if he did it is more than likely he would win

    The whole process would take 2 - 3 months and I would expect TM to be a caretaker pending the appointment of her successor.

    I hope that you accept that as a membership I do know the process
    Fair enough. I withdraw the last sentence. The rest stands. Best to wait a bit longer before encouraging the submission of letters and let May founder further in a sea of her own stubbornness.
    That is why the ERG have not challeged her and will not without some hope of a move by a majority of her mps for change and that will then trigger a full blown leadership contest of which there will be many throwing their hats in the ring

    Boris will not get a coronation
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,251
    LordOfReason said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    SeanT said:

    Boris is closer to being PM, right now, than at any point in his career. But how does he seize the crown?

    By waiting. Wait for a few more weeks for May's Chequers offer to completely unravel in the face of EU political intransigence. Then let the letters go in. And then wait a bit longer in the hope that another challenger throws their hat in the ring to challenge May first, before he does so himself.
    You really do not know our system. I have explained it to you

    If TM lost a vnoc she would stand down and a full leadership contest would take place with at least 6 -8 candidates, one of course would be Boris. Televised hustings would take place and then a vote is taken by all conservative mps to put two of the candidates to the members. At present Boris has annoyed so many of his fellow colleagues it is doubtful he would get in the final two. However, if he did it is more than likely he would win

    The whole process would take 2 - 3 months and I would expect TM to be a caretaker pending the appointment of her successor.

    I hope that you accept that as a membership I do know the process
    Simple fact is, that isn’t what happened last time, how May got it.
    Last time Leadsome stood down. This time there will be a clamour from lots to stand. It will be a real contest
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,251
    LordOfReason said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    SeanT said:

    Boris is closer to being PM, right now, than at any point in his career. But how does he seize the crown?

    By waiting. Wait for a few more weeks for May's Chequers offer to completely unravel in the face of EU political intransigence. Then let the letters go in. And then wait a bit longer in the hope that another challenger throws their hat in the ring to challenge May first, before he does so himself.
    You really do not know our system. I have explained it to you

    If TM lost a vnoc she would stand down and a full leadership contest would take place with at least 6 -8 candidates, one of course would be Boris. Televised hustings would take place and then a vote is taken by all conservative mps to put two of the candidates to the members. At present Boris has annoyed so many of his fellow colleagues it is doubtful he would get in the final two. However, if he did it is more than likely he would win

    The whole process would take 2 - 3 months and I would expect TM to be a caretaker pending the appointment of her successor.

    I hope that you accept that as a membership I do know the process
    Simple fact is, that isn’t what happened last time, how May got it.
    Last time Leadsome stood down. This time there will be a clamour from lots to stand. It will be a real contest
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Jonathan said:

    Who is the stop Boris unity candidate?

    We're still quarrelling about that.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,528
    SeanT said:

    Foxy said:

    SeanT said:

    Foxy said:

    SeanT said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Only 11 and a bit years to go before China's population peaks according to this. I think the UK population is expected to still be rising at that time.

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/chinas-population-to-peak-to-1-45-billion-by-2030/articleshow/57603275.cms

    India will have overtaken China as the world's largest population in a few decades
    Africa over takes Asia as the most populated continent this century.

    In 1950 Europe had three times Africa's population.
    Economically irrelevant until the 23rd century at the earliest. And by then we will probably have been taken over by robots, wielding tungsten dildos.

    Africa will never matter. Sadly.
    It will.

    There is more to immigration than economic pull, there is demographic push and climate change forcing people to move.
    That's true, African migration will matter. Esp into Europe.

    My point was more re global politics. e.g. I cannot see an African superpower emerging at at any time, ever. No country is big enough, none has the innate human potential in sufficient size.
    Nigeria will become 3rd most populous country on the globe by the end of the century, displacing the USA.

    Africa is the young continent, and increasingly that is where students in developed countries will come from. May's highly skilled migrants will increasingly come from South of the Med.
    Piffle. Nigeria is 1. fucked, 2, comparatively tiny (compared to continent sized hegemons like China, USA, EU, India, and 3, its projected population growth (the only way it is a contender for this top tier) will very soon drop like a stone (as has happened in every developing country)

    Apart from that, spot on.
    As so often is the case, you are wrong.

    While in most of the world fertility rate has dropped dramatically, it is much less so in Africa:

    https://twitter.com/Abdulrahmanleme/status/1044539446497083392?s=19

This discussion has been closed.