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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s now 1/6 that the Kavanagh nomination will go through

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited October 4 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s now 1/6 that the Kavanagh nomination will go through

After being briefed by the FBI today and having the opportunity to read the report myself, I am now even more confident in Judge #Kavanaugh’s nomination and fitness for the court. (1/2)

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,931
    Vanilla ate my hamster. Kavanaugh is misspelt in the header.
  • Lock him up.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,320
    edited October 4
    So when's the actual vote on his confirmation?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 14,121
    edited October 4
    This process isn't so much the FBI going through the motions as the entire US system of government wading through deep motion.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,320
    edited October 4
    ydoethur said:

    This process isn't so much the FBI going through the motions as the entire US system of government wading through deep motion.

    They do love their procedures and motions and hearings and inquest and...

    Probably a boon, in other times - they do seem to have rules for almost everything it seems.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 14,121
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    This process isn't so much the FBI going through the motions as the entire US system of government wading through deep motion.

    They do love their procedures and motions and hearings and inquest and...

    Probably a boon, in other times.
    That wasn't quite what I meant...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,320
    edited October 4
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    This process isn't so much the FBI going through the motions as the entire US system of government wading through deep motion.

    They do love their procedures and motions and hearings and inquest and...

    Probably a boon, in other times.
    That wasn't quite what I meant...
    I figured. But they seem to like it even then! Just more opportunity for the other lot to be more covered in sludge, figuratively and procedurally.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 14,121
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    This process isn't so much the FBI going through the motions as the entire US system of government wading through deep motion.

    They do love their procedures and motions and hearings and inquest and...

    Probably a boon, in other times.
    That wasn't quite what I meant...
    I figured. But they seem to like it even then!
    Hugh Dalton, in his final illness, became constipated. A nurse told him she would give him an enema so he could have a motion. Amused by her coyness, Dalton replied, 'I was in Parliament many years, and it taught me you cannot have a motion without a debate, young lady.'
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,417
    BREXIT ANECDOTAGE INCOMING

    Strange conversation with a very well informed, well connected, and super intelligent lady friend today. She predicted the Brexit win and the Trump win. She's centre right and was a reluctant Remainer.

    She told me that 1. her strongly Remainer, successful businessman husband has switched to Leave, because of the behaviour of the EU

    2. Yet she also put the chances of a 2nd referendum at 70/30, or 80/20, because no deal (including no deal) can be pushed through parliament, so the politicians will be forced to ask the people again

    3. She predicted that if and when that happened, there was a very good chance Leave would win again, by a bigger margin

    Clearly she is speculating wildly, but she is highly astute and also knows a lot of clever and senior political people. So there ya go.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 6,131
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    This process isn't so much the FBI going through the motions as the entire US system of government wading through deep motion.

    They do love their procedures and motions and hearings and inquest and...

    Probably a boon, in other times.
    That wasn't quite what I meant...
    I figured. But they seem to like it even then!
    Hugh Dalton, in his final illness, became constipated. A nurse told him she would give him an enema so he could have a motion. Amused by her coyness, Dalton replied, 'I was in Parliament many years, and it taught me you cannot have a motion without a debate, young lady.'
    ...and then she shoved a spigot up his arse.

    Pause.

    Smartarse patients :) :)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 28,024
    You're Kavanaugh laugh! :)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 6,131
    SeanT said:

    BREXIT ANECDOTAGE INCOMING

    Strange conversation with a very well informed, well connected, and super intelligent lady friend today. She predicted the Brexit win and the Trump win. She's centre right and was a reluctant Remainer.

    She told me that 1. her strongly Remainer, successful businessman husband has switched to Leave, because of the behaviour of the EU

    2. Yet she also put the chances of a 2nd referendum at 70/30, or 80/20, because no deal (including no deal) can be pushed through parliament, so the politicians will be forced to ask the people again

    3. She predicted that if and when that happened, there was a very good chance Leave would win again, by a bigger margin

    Clearly she is speculating wildly, but she is highly astute and also knows a lot of clever and senior political people. So there ya go.

    This does rather assume that a second referendum can be held, and that Remain would be an option upon it. As @Casino_Royale pointed out last night, there may not be a majority in Parliament for a second referendum of any description, let alone a Remain/Leave one.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 14,121
    viewcode said:

    SeanT said:

    BREXIT ANECDOTAGE INCOMING

    Strange conversation with a very well informed, well connected, and super intelligent lady friend today. She predicted the Brexit win and the Trump win. She's centre right and was a reluctant Remainer.

    She told me that 1. her strongly Remainer, successful businessman husband has switched to Leave, because of the behaviour of the EU

    2. Yet she also put the chances of a 2nd referendum at 70/30, or 80/20, because no deal (including no deal) can be pushed through parliament, so the politicians will be forced to ask the people again

    3. She predicted that if and when that happened, there was a very good chance Leave would win again, by a bigger margin

    Clearly she is speculating wildly, but she is highly astute and also knows a lot of clever and senior political people. So there ya go.

    This does rather assume that a second referendum can be held, and that Remain would be an option upon it. As @Casino_Royale pointed out last night, there may not be a majority in Parliament for a second referendum of any description, let alone a Remain/Leave one.
    We are probably, at this moment, more politically paralysed than at any time since the fall of the second (or third, depending a bit on whether you count the Bedchamber crisis) Melbourne ministry in 1841.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,320
    ydoethur said:

    viewcode said:

    SeanT said:

    BREXIT ANECDOTAGE INCOMING

    Strange conversation with a very well informed, well connected, and super intelligent lady friend today. She predicted the Brexit win and the Trump win. She's centre right and was a reluctant Remainer.

    She told me that 1. her strongly Remainer, successful businessman husband has switched to Leave, because of the behaviour of the EU

    2. Yet she also put the chances of a 2nd referendum at 70/30, or 80/20, because no deal (including no deal) can be pushed through parliament, so the politicians will be forced to ask the people again

    3. She predicted that if and when that happened, there was a very good chance Leave would win again, by a bigger margin

    Clearly she is speculating wildly, but she is highly astute and also knows a lot of clever and senior political people. So there ya go.

    This does rather assume that a second referendum can be held, and that Remain would be an option upon it. As @Casino_Royale pointed out last night, there may not be a majority in Parliament for a second referendum of any description, let alone a Remain/Leave one.
    We are probably, at this moment, more politically paralysed than at any time since the fall of the second (or third, depending a bit on whether you count the Bedchamber crisis) Melbourne ministry in 1841.
    Yes...the bedchamber crisis...of which we are all familiar of course. I, er, do count it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 14,121
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    viewcode said:

    SeanT said:

    BREXIT ANECDOTAGE INCOMING

    Strange conversation with a very well informed, well connected, and super intelligent lady friend today. She predicted the Brexit win and the Trump win. She's centre right and was a reluctant Remainer.

    She told me that 1. her strongly Remainer, successful businessman husband has switched to Leave, because of the behaviour of the EU

    2. Yet she also put the chances of a 2nd referendum at 70/30, or 80/20, because no deal (including no deal) can be pushed through parliament, so the politicians will be forced to ask the people again

    3. She predicted that if and when that happened, there was a very good chance Leave would win again, by a bigger margin

    Clearly she is speculating wildly, but she is highly astute and also knows a lot of clever and senior political people. So there ya go.

    This does rather assume that a second referendum can be held, and that Remain would be an option upon it. As @Casino_Royale pointed out last night, there may not be a majority in Parliament for a second referendum of any description, let alone a Remain/Leave one.
    We are probably, at this moment, more politically paralysed than at any time since the fall of the second (or third, depending a bit on whether you count the Bedchamber crisis) Melbourne ministry in 1841.
    Yes...the bedchamber crisis...of which we are all familiar of course. I, er, do count it.
    In Cannock they talk of little else, m'lud!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,285
    [email protected] should be fun tommorow :D
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 6,317
    SeanT said:

    BREXIT ANECDOTAGE INCOMING

    Strange conversation with a very well informed, well connected, and super intelligent lady friend today. She predicted the Brexit win and the Trump win. She's centre right and was a reluctant Remainer.

    She told me that 1. her strongly Remainer, successful businessman husband has switched to Leave, because of the behaviour of the EU

    2. Yet she also put the chances of a 2nd referendum at 70/30, or 80/20, because no deal (including no deal) can be pushed through parliament, so the politicians will be forced to ask the people again

    3. She predicted that if and when that happened, there was a very good chance Leave would win again, by a bigger margin

    Clearly she is speculating wildly, but she is highly astute and also knows a lot of clever and senior political people. So there ya go.

    When does this referendum get held?

    We are about 5 months out from leaving

    There is no time and it isn't going to happen
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,417
    viewcode said:

    SeanT said:

    BREXIT ANECDOTAGE INCOMING

    Strange conversation with a very well informed, well connected, and super intelligent lady friend today. She predicted the Brexit win and the Trump win. She's centre right and was a reluctant Remainer.

    She told me that 1. her strongly Remainer, successful businessman husband has switched to Leave, because of the behaviour of the EU

    2. Yet she also put the chances of a 2nd referendum at 70/30, or 80/20, because no deal (including no deal) can be pushed through parliament, so the politicians will be forced to ask the people again

    3. She predicted that if and when that happened, there was a very good chance Leave would win again, by a bigger margin

    Clearly she is speculating wildly, but she is highly astute and also knows a lot of clever and senior political people. So there ya go.

    This does rather assume that a second referendum can be held, and that Remain would be an option upon it. As @Casino_Royale pointed out last night, there may not be a majority in Parliament for a second referendum of any description, let alone a Remain/Leave one.
    I know, I know. But I reckon a way would be found. There is almost certainly a majority in parliament for Remain as against No Deal.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,591
    Floater said:

    SeanT said:

    BREXIT ANECDOTAGE INCOMING

    Strange conversation with a very well informed, well connected, and super intelligent lady friend today. She predicted the Brexit win and the Trump win. She's centre right and was a reluctant Remainer.

    She told me that 1. her strongly Remainer, successful businessman husband has switched to Leave, because of the behaviour of the EU

    2. Yet she also put the chances of a 2nd referendum at 70/30, or 80/20, because no deal (including no deal) can be pushed through parliament, so the politicians will be forced to ask the people again

    3. She predicted that if and when that happened, there was a very good chance Leave would win again, by a bigger margin

    Clearly she is speculating wildly, but she is highly astute and also knows a lot of clever and senior political people. So there ya go.

    When does this referendum get held?

    We are about 5 months out from leaving

    There is no time and it isn't going to happen
    I don't think it likely either, I expect a Withdrawal Agreement but witH FTA left hanging, in Blind Brexit.

    As such a vote to Remain is impossible.

    The only viable means would be via A50 extension, as proposed by Boris. I am sure the EU would not object.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,417
    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    SeanT said:

    BREXIT ANECDOTAGE INCOMING

    Strange conversation with a very well informed, well connected, and super intelligent lady friend today. She predicted the Brexit win and the Trump win. She's centre right and was a reluctant Remainer.

    She told me that 1. her strongly Remainer, successful businessman husband has switched to Leave, because of the behaviour of the EU

    2. Yet she also put the chances of a 2nd referendum at 70/30, or 80/20, because no deal (including no deal) can be pushed through parliament, so the politicians will be forced to ask the people again

    3. She predicted that if and when that happened, there was a very good chance Leave would win again, by a bigger margin

    Clearly she is speculating wildly, but she is highly astute and also knows a lot of clever and senior political people. So there ya go.

    When does this referendum get held?

    We are about 5 months out from leaving

    There is no time and it isn't going to happen
    I don't think it likely either, I expect a Withdrawal Agreement but witH FTA left hanging, in Blind Brexit.

    As such a vote to Remain is impossible.

    The only viable means would be via A50 extension, as proposed by Boris. I am sure the EU would not object.
    FWIW I don't agree with my friend that the chances of a 2nd vote are anything like 80%.

    30-50%? Yes.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,804
    ydoethur said:

    viewcode said:

    SeanT said:

    BREXIT ANECDOTAGE INCOMING

    Strange conversation with a very well informed, well connected, and super intelligent lady friend today. She predicted the Brexit win and the Trump win. She's centre right and was a reluctant Remainer.

    She told me that 1. her strongly Remainer, successful businessman husband has switched to Leave, because of the behaviour of the EU

    2. Yet she also put the chances of a 2nd referendum at 70/30, or 80/20, because no deal (including no deal) can be pushed through parliament, so the politicians will be forced to ask the people again

    3. She predicted that if and when that happened, there was a very good chance Leave would win again, by a bigger margin

    Clearly she is speculating wildly, but she is highly astute and also knows a lot of clever and senior political people. So there ya go.

    This does rather assume that a second referendum can be held, and that Remain would be an option upon it. As @Casino_Royale pointed out last night, there may not be a majority in Parliament for a second referendum of any description, let alone a Remain/Leave one.
    We are probably, at this moment, more politically paralysed than at any time since the fall of the second (or third, depending a bit on whether you count the Bedchamber crisis) Melbourne ministry in 1841.
    And it's all down to the interests of the Tory Party being placed before those of the country in a way which is probably unparalleled in British history since the 17th century.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 5,782
    SeanT said:

    viewcode said:

    SeanT said:

    BREXIT ANECDOTAGE INCOMING

    Strange conversation with a very well informed, well connected, and super intelligent lady friend today. She predicted the Brexit win and the Trump win. She's centre right and was a reluctant Remainer.

    She told me that 1. her strongly Remainer, successful businessman husband has switched to Leave, because of the behaviour of the EU

    2. Yet she also put the chances of a 2nd referendum at 70/30, or 80/20, because no deal (including no deal) can be pushed through parliament, so the politicians will be forced to ask the people again

    3. She predicted that if and when that happened, there was a very good chance Leave would win again, by a bigger margin

    Clearly she is speculating wildly, but she is highly astute and also knows a lot of clever and senior political people. So there ya go.

    This does rather assume that a second referendum can be held, and that Remain would be an option upon it. As @Casino_Royale pointed out last night, there may not be a majority in Parliament for a second referendum of any description, let alone a Remain/Leave one.
    I know, I know. But I reckon a way would be found. There is almost certainly a majority in parliament for Remain as against No Deal.
    Whether a referendum is likely to happen or not is less important than its probable result.

    And on that I agree with your super intelligent friend. Leave would win by a handy margin. The public do not like sore losers and I can't see anyway that a second referendum escapes being framed in that way. Many Remainers will unwittingly aid that framing by being unable [still!] to avoid moaning about the bus of lies.

    Oh well.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 22,024
    Yet again: a referendum does not absolutely need Parliament’s sanction. Australia just had a non-statutory referendum on gay marriage.

    The bigger question is whether the government could ever be persuaded to want one. Time is not really the question.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 725

    ydoethur said:

    viewcode said:

    SeanT said:

    BREXIT ANECDOTAGE INCOMING

    Strange conversation with a very well informed, well connected, and super intelligent lady friend today. She predicted the Brexit win and the Trump win. She's centre right and was a reluctant Remainer.

    She told me that 1. her strongly Remainer, successful businessman husband has switched to Leave, because of the behaviour of the EU

    2. Yet she also put the chances of a 2nd referendum at 70/30, or 80/20, because no deal (including no deal) can be pushed through parliament, so the politicians will be forced to ask the people again

    3. She predicted that if and when that happened, there was a very good chance Leave would win again, by a bigger margin

    Clearly she is speculating wildly, but she is highly astute and also knows a lot of clever and senior political people. So there ya go.

    This does rather assume that a second referendum can be held, and that Remain would be an option upon it. As @Casino_Royale pointed out last night, there may not be a majority in Parliament for a second referendum of any description, let alone a Remain/Leave one.
    We are probably, at this moment, more politically paralysed than at any time since the fall of the second (or third, depending a bit on whether you count the Bedchamber crisis) Melbourne ministry in 1841.
    And it's all down to the interests of the Tory Party being placed before those of the country in a way which is probably unparalleled in British history since the 17th century.
    It's not the Tories who have said they'll vote against any deal with the EU irrespective of what's in such a deal.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,228
    The only way I see a second referendum being possible is if May brings a deal to the HoC and they reject it. At that point all bets would be off but I just can’t believe that that would happen. If she comes back with a deal (and that is still odds on, if not the nailed on probability it once was) it will go through Parliament with the help of remainers who fear the alternative of a no deal Brexit. Leavers will wail but it will go through, we will leave, however nominally, and the moment for a second referendum will have passed.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,591
    SeanT said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    SeanT said:

    BREXIT ANECDOTAGE INCOMING

    Strange conversation with a very well informed, well connected, and super intelligent lady friend today. She predicted the Brexit win and the Trump win. She's centre right and was a reluctant Remainer.

    She told me that 1. her strongly Remainer, successful businessman husband has switched to Leave, because of the behaviour of the EU

    2. Yet she also put the chances of a 2nd referendum at 70/30, or 80/20, because no deal (including no deal) can be pushed through parliament, so the politicians will be forced to ask the people again

    3. She predicted that if and when that happened, there was a very good chance Leave would win again, by a bigger margin

    Clearly she is speculating wildly, but she is highly astute and also knows a lot of clever and senior political people. So there ya go.

    When does this referendum get held?

    We are about 5 months out from leaving

    There is no time and it isn't going to happen
    I don't think it likely either, I expect a Withdrawal Agreement but witH FTA left hanging, in Blind Brexit.

    As such a vote to Remain is impossible.

    The only viable means would be via A50 extension, as proposed by Boris. I am sure the EU would not object.
    FWIW I don't agree with my friend that the chances of a 2nd vote are anything like 80%.

    30-50%? Yes.
    In my hypothesised Blind Brexit, options would narrow to the range EEA to WTO, and a #peoplesvote may then occur on the direction of Brexit, in which EEA may well win. I suspect both sides would be exhausted by then.

  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,417

    Yet again: a referendum does not absolutely need Parliament’s sanction. Australia just had a non-statutory referendum on gay marriage.

    The bigger question is whether the government could ever be persuaded to want one. Time is not really the question.

    If every deal gets voted down (as Labour threaten) and the only alternatives become 1. No deal, 2. A General Election, or 3. A 2nd vote, I reckon the Tories/Commons would go for 3.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,417
    Foxy said:

    SeanT said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    SeanT said:

    BREXIT ANECDOTAGE INCOMING

    Strange conversation with a very well informed, well connected, and super intelligent lady friend today. She predicted the Brexit win and the Trump win. She's centre right and was a reluctant Remainer.

    She told me that 1. her strongly Remainer, successful businessman husband has switched to Leave, because of the behaviour of the EU

    2. Yet she also put the chances of a 2nd referendum at 70/30, or 80/20, because no deal (including no deal) can be pushed through parliament, so the politicians will be forced to ask the people again

    3. She predicted that if and when that happened, there was a very good chance Leave would win again, by a bigger margin

    Clearly she is speculating wildly, but she is highly astute and also knows a lot of clever and senior political people. So there ya go.

    When does this referendum get held?

    We are about 5 months out from leaving

    There is no time and it isn't going to happen
    I don't think it likely either, I expect a Withdrawal Agreement but witH FTA left hanging, in Blind Brexit.

    As such a vote to Remain is impossible.

    The only viable means would be via A50 extension, as proposed by Boris. I am sure the EU would not object.
    FWIW I don't agree with my friend that the chances of a 2nd vote are anything like 80%.

    30-50%? Yes.
    In my hypothesised Blind Brexit, options would narrow to the range EEA to WTO, and a #peoplesvote may then occur on the direction of Brexit, in which EEA may well win. I suspect both sides would be exhausted by then.

    That's an interesting idea. And plausible. I'd be more than happy with EEA as a holding position for the next 5 years at least. While we come to our senses and work out what we want, long term.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,591

    SeanT said:

    viewcode said:

    SeanT said:

    BREXIT ANECDOTAGE INCOMING

    Strange conversation with a very well informed, well connected, and super intelligent lady friend today. She predicted the Brexit win and the Trump win. She's centre right and was a reluctant Remainer.

    She told me that 1. her strongly Remainer, successful businessman husband has switched to Leave, because of the behaviour of the EU

    2. Yet she also put the chances of a 2nd referendum at 70/30, or 80/20, because no deal (including no deal) can be pushed through parliament, so the politicians will be forced to ask the people again

    3. She predicted that if and when that happened, there was a very good chance Leave would win again, by a bigger margin

    Clearly she is speculating wildly, but she is highly astute and also knows a lot of clever and senior political people. So there ya go.

    This does rather assume that a second referendum can be held, and that Remain would be an option upon it. As @Casino_Royale pointed out last night, there may not be a majority in Parliament for a second referendum of any description, let alone a Remain/Leave one.
    I know, I know. But I reckon a way would be found. There is almost certainly a majority in parliament for Remain as against No Deal.
    Whether a referendum is likely to happen or not is less important than its probable result.

    And on that I agree with your super intelligent friend. Leave would win by a handy margin. The public do not like sore losers and I can't see anyway that a second referendum escapes being framed in that way. Many Remainers will unwittingly aid that framing by being unable [still!] to avoid moaning about the bus of lies.

    Oh well.
    There would be the "sore loser" vote to Leave, but also the "lets forget the whole mess" vote to Remain.

    I don't think the result can be predicted in advance, as the voters can be keen to kick the party in power, as they so often do in Referendums, and the party in power is the vote to Leave. The anti-establishment vote comes to Remain.

    Such a referendum would also take place in the context of complete collapse of government, so in a very volatile time. Anything could happen.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,591
    SeanT said:

    Yet again: a referendum does not absolutely need Parliament’s sanction. Australia just had a non-statutory referendum on gay marriage.

    The bigger question is whether the government could ever be persuaded to want one. Time is not really the question.

    If every deal gets voted down (as Labour threaten) and the only alternatives become 1. No deal, 2. A General Election, or 3. A 2nd vote, I reckon the Tories/Commons would go for 3.
    I think the Withdrawal Agreement would pass, even if it meant Irish Sea customs* until Dec 2020, not least because everyone would want more time to plan and to keep other options alive.

    Not likely to involve much as regulatory alignment would continue, by inertia if no other reason. The DUP would be annoyed, but outvoted by Labour moderates.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 31,241
    edited October 4
    The real big story today, Chinese spying. If true, a totally different level of spying and we should all be worried.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 2,867

    The real big story today, Chinese spying. If true, a totally different level of spying and we should all be worried.

    Absolutely.

    Doesn't half make you wonder about all your Chinese-made products.

    More-than-doubly so if you are a government or large corporation, I suspect.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 20,992
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    viewcode said:

    SeanT said:

    BREXIT ANECDOTAGE INCOMING

    Strange conversation with a very well informed, well connected, and super intelligent lady friend today. She predicted the Brexit win and the Trump win. She's centre right and was a reluctant Remainer.

    She told me that 1. her strongly Remainer, successful businessman husband has switched to Leave, because of the behaviour of the EU

    2. Yet she also put the chances of a 2nd referendum at 70/30, or 80/20, because no deal (including no deal) can be pushed through parliament, so the politicians will be forced to ask the people again

    3. She predicted that if and when that happened, there was a very good chance Leave would win again, by a bigger margin

    Clearly she is speculating wildly, but she is highly astute and also knows a lot of clever and senior political people. So there ya go.

    This does rather assume that a second referendum can be held, and that Remain would be an option upon it. As @Casino_Royale pointed out last night, there may not be a majority in Parliament for a second referendum of any description, let alone a Remain/Leave one.
    We are probably, at this moment, more politically paralysed than at any time since the fall of the second (or third, depending a bit on whether you count the Bedchamber crisis) Melbourne ministry in 1841.
    Yes...the bedchamber crisis...of which we are all familiar of course. I, er, do count it.
    The squabble between Sarah Churchill and Abigail Masham for the, er, favours of Queen Anne would make today’s politicians blush...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 40,186
    SeanT said:

    a holding position for the next 5 years at least. While we come to our senses and work out what we want, long term.

    The membership deal we had...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 20,992
    Foxy said:

    SeanT said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    SeanT said:

    BREXIT ANECDOTAGE INCOMING

    Strange conversation with a very well informed, well connected, and super intelligent lady friend today. She predicted the Brexit win and the Trump win. She's centre right and was a reluctant Remainer.

    She told me that 1. her strongly Remainer, successful businessman husband has switched to Leave, because of the behaviour of the EU

    2. Yet she also put the chances of a 2nd referendum at 70/30, or 80/20, because no deal (including no deal) can be pushed through parliament, so the politicians will be forced to ask the people again

    3. She predicted that if and when that happened, there was a very good chance Leave would win again, by a bigger margin

    Clearly she is speculating wildly, but she is highly astute and also knows a lot of clever and senior political people. So there ya go.

    When does this referendum get held?

    We are about 5 months out from leaving

    There is no time and it isn't going to happen
    I don't think it likely either, I expect a Withdrawal Agreement but witH FTA left hanging, in Blind Brexit.

    As such a vote to Remain is impossible.

    The only viable means would be via A50 extension, as proposed by Boris. I am sure the EU would not object.
    FWIW I don't agree with my friend that the chances of a 2nd vote are anything like 80%.

    30-50%? Yes.
    In my hypothesised Blind Brexit, options would narrow to the range EEA to WTO, and a #peoplesvote may then occur on the direction of Brexit, in which EEA may well win. I suspect both sides would be exhausted by then.

    Isn’t it a bit pretentious to capitalise a term which you, and only you, use?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,228

    The real big story today, Chinese spying. If true, a totally different level of spying and we should all be worried.

    There is a high degree of computer expertise on this board and this most emphatically does not include me but I am having real problems in understanding how an extra chip would affect control or the operation of a motherboard. Surely the instructions for how chips operate is in the software/coding? Unless the chip had some built in code that operated when triggered to do so? Is that even possible?

    As I say I would love to tap the expertise available on this.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,256
    SeanT said:

    Yet again: a referendum does not absolutely need Parliament’s sanction. Australia just had a non-statutory referendum on gay marriage.

    The bigger question is whether the government could ever be persuaded to want one. Time is not really the question.

    If every deal gets voted down (as Labour threaten) and the only alternatives become 1. No deal, 2. A General Election, or 3. A 2nd vote, I reckon the Tories/Commons would go for 3.
    And if it is 3 and we vote to remain,doesn't that put you a Grand out of pocket ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,788
    edited October 4
    Newsnight has apparently got a big story on DNA and how it affects people's lives. Sounds interesting...
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 925
    SeanT said:

    Yet again: a referendum does not absolutely need Parliament’s sanction. Australia just had a non-statutory referendum on gay marriage.

    The bigger question is whether the government could ever be persuaded to want one. Time is not really the question.

    If every deal gets voted down (as Labour threaten) and the only alternatives become 1. No deal, 2. A General Election, or 3. A 2nd vote, I reckon the Tories/Commons would go for 3.
    I don't see it.

    Short of the DUP willing to put Labour into power, option 2 is a no go. The tories aren't going to risk an election when they have a workable majority.

    Absent a deal, what would a another vote ask ? Leave versus Remain has been done.

    Option 1 just happens without intervention by process of law and time.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 19,460
    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    a holding position for the next 5 years at least. While we come to our senses and work out what we want, long term.

    The membership deal we had...
    We need to leave before we can judge that. It is almost certainly true that remain would have been good for us but any attempt to snatch away leave will be far worse. We can rejoin at some point if the climate changes and the EU does as well
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 31,241
    edited October 4

    The real big story today, Chinese spying. If true, a totally different level of spying and we should all be worried.

    Absolutely.

    Doesn't half make you wonder about all your Chinese-made products.

    More-than-doubly so if you are a government or large corporation, I suspect.
    People laughed at US being down on ZTE and huawei as some weird trump stunt about va-China...huawei’s core business is commercial network products...I believe the UK government has a lot of their products.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 6,131
    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    viewcode said:

    SeanT said:

    BREXIT ANECDOTAGE INCOMING

    Strange conversation with a very well informed, well connected, and super intelligent lady friend today. She predicted the Brexit win and the Trump win. She's centre right and was a reluctant Remainer.

    She told me that 1. her strongly Remainer, successful businessman husband has switched to Leave, because of the behaviour of the EU

    2. Yet she also put the chances of a 2nd referendum at 70/30, or 80/20, because no deal (including no deal) can be pushed through parliament, so the politicians will be forced to ask the people again

    3. She predicted that if and when that happened, there was a very good chance Leave would win again, by a bigger margin

    Clearly she is speculating wildly, but she is highly astute and also knows a lot of clever and senior political people. So there ya go.

    This does rather assume that a second referendum can be held, and that Remain would be an option upon it. As @Casino_Royale pointed out last night, there may not be a majority in Parliament for a second referendum of any description, let alone a Remain/Leave one.
    We are probably, at this moment, more politically paralysed than at any time since the fall of the second (or third, depending a bit on whether you count the Bedchamber crisis) Melbourne ministry in 1841.
    Yes...the bedchamber crisis...of which we are all familiar of course. I, er, do count it.
    The squabble between Sarah Churchill and Abigail Masham for the, er, favours of Queen Anne would make today’s politicians blush...
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 298



    Many Remainers will unwittingly aid that framing by being unable [still!] to avoid moaning about the bus of lies.

    The bus of lies that was again demolished by the PM yesterday when she mentioned, again, the £390-odd million extra per week for the NHS by the end of the parliament...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,228

    SeanT said:

    Yet again: a referendum does not absolutely need Parliament’s sanction. Australia just had a non-statutory referendum on gay marriage.

    The bigger question is whether the government could ever be persuaded to want one. Time is not really the question.

    If every deal gets voted down (as Labour threaten) and the only alternatives become 1. No deal, 2. A General Election, or 3. A 2nd vote, I reckon the Tories/Commons would go for 3.
    I don't see it.

    Short of the DUP willing to put Labour into power, option 2 is a no go. The tories aren't going to risk an election when they have a workable majority.

    Absent a deal, what would a another vote ask ? Leave versus Remain has been done.

    Option 1 just happens without intervention by process of law and time.
    That’s why I think when push comes to shove remainers will back May’s deal. The risk of a no deal Brexit in the event of it being voted down is just too high.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,417

    SeanT said:

    Yet again: a referendum does not absolutely need Parliament’s sanction. Australia just had a non-statutory referendum on gay marriage.

    The bigger question is whether the government could ever be persuaded to want one. Time is not really the question.

    If every deal gets voted down (as Labour threaten) and the only alternatives become 1. No deal, 2. A General Election, or 3. A 2nd vote, I reckon the Tories/Commons would go for 3.
    And if it is 3 and we vote to remain,doesn't that put you a Grand out of pocket ?
    Er, yeah
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 31,241
    edited October 4
    DavidL said:

    The real big story today, Chinese spying. If true, a totally different level of spying and we should all be worried.

    There is a high degree of computer expertise on this board and this most emphatically does not include me but I am having real problems in understanding how an extra chip would affect control or the operation of a motherboard. Surely the instructions for how chips operate is in the software/coding? Unless the chip had some built in code that operated when triggered to do so? Is that even possible?

    As I say I would love to tap the expertise available on this.

    The original Bloomberg article does a decent job of explaining this for the layman. The debate isn’t if it is technically possible, is it that apple / amazon / us government have said the article isn’t correct.

    If the report is true, Apple acted like total twats and caused a delay in this getting exposed.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 3,127
    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    a holding position for the next 5 years at least. While we come to our senses and work out what we want, long term.

    The membership deal we had...
    That is one of the worst options and one reason why we're leaving.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,801
    DavidL said:

    The only way I see a second referendum being possible is if May brings a deal to the HoC and they reject it. At that point all bets would be off but I just can’t believe that that would happen. If she comes back with a deal (and that is still odds on, if not the nailed on probability it once was) it will go through Parliament with the help of remainers who fear the alternative of a no deal Brexit. Leavers will wail but it will go through, we will leave, however nominally, and the moment for a second referendum will have passed.

    I agree with that.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,417
    edited October 4
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    SeanT said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    SeanT said:

    BREXIT ANECDOTAGE INCOMING

    Strange conversation with a very well informed, well connected, and super intelligent lady friend today. She predicted the Brexit win and the Trump win. She's centre right and was a reluctant Remainer.

    She told me that 1. her strongly Remainer, successful businessman husband has switched to Leave, because of the behaviour of the EU

    2. Yet she also put the chances of a 2nd referendum at 70/30, or 80/20, because no deal (including no deal) can be pushed through parliament, so the politicians will be forced to ask the people again

    3. She predicted that if and when that happened, there was a very good chance Leave would win again, by a bigger margin

    Clearly she is speculating wildly, but she is highly astute and also knows a lot of clever and senior political people. So there ya go.

    When does this referendum get held?

    We are about 5 months out from leaving

    There is no time and it isn't going to happen
    I don't think it likely either, I expect a Withdrawal Agreement but witH FTA left hanging, in Blind Brexit.

    As such a vote to Remain is impossible.

    The only viable means would be via A50 extension, as proposed by Boris. I am sure the EU would not object.
    FWIW I don't agree with my friend that the chances of a 2nd vote are anything like 80%.

    30-50%? Yes.
    In my hypothesised Blind Brexit, options would narrow to the range EEA to WTO, and a #peoplesvote may then occur on the direction of Brexit, in which EEA may well win. I suspect both sides would be exhausted by then.

    Isn’t it a bit pretentious to capitalise a term which you, and only you, use?
    Actually "Blind Brexit" has been around for a while and gets 217,000 Google hits.

    https://www.google.co.uk/search?q="blind+brexit"&oq="blind+brexit"&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l5.3172j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,228

    DavidL said:

    The real big story today, Chinese spying. If true, a totally different level of spying and we should all be worried.

    There is a high degree of computer expertise on this board and this most emphatically does not include me but I am having real problems in understanding how an extra chip would affect control or the operation of a motherboard. Surely the instructions for how chips operate is in the software/coding? Unless the chip had some built in code that operated when triggered to do so? Is that even possible?

    As I say I would love to tap the expertise available on this.

    The original Bloomberg article does a decent job of explaining this for the layman.
    Well not this one because I read it. It said that a chip smaller than a grain of rice had been added to the motherboard. It claimed that this chip allowed access to the system once it was in place giving control or access to the remote user. It didn’t say how.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,801
    This is what happens if you threaten to take action over media reports and then fail to do so. It can be presented as an admission of guilt.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,666

    The real big story today, Chinese spying. If true, a totally different level of spying and we should all be worried.

    Absolutely.

    Doesn't half make you wonder about all your Chinese-made products.

    More-than-doubly so if you are a government or large corporation, I suspect.
    Pretty bloody stupid by the Chinese.
    It won’t happen overnight, but the big tech companies will look for alternative sourcing for their products.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 31,241

    This is what happens if you threaten to take action over media reports and then fail to do so. It can be presented as an admission of guilt.

    twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1047946190225113089

    No, this is what happens if you hang out with terrorists...
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,256
    edited October 4
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Yet again: a referendum does not absolutely need Parliament’s sanction. Australia just had a non-statutory referendum on gay marriage.

    The bigger question is whether the government could ever be persuaded to want one. Time is not really the question.

    If every deal gets voted down (as Labour threaten) and the only alternatives become 1. No deal, 2. A General Election, or 3. A 2nd vote, I reckon the Tories/Commons would go for 3.
    And if it is 3 and we vote to remain,doesn't that put you a Grand out of pocket ?
    Er, yeah
    If 3 does happen then we can expect a Scottish referendum.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,320
    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:

    Yet again: a referendum does not absolutely need Parliament’s sanction. Australia just had a non-statutory referendum on gay marriage.

    The bigger question is whether the government could ever be persuaded to want one. Time is not really the question.

    If every deal gets voted down (as Labour threaten) and the only alternatives become 1. No deal, 2. A General Election, or 3. A 2nd vote, I reckon the Tories/Commons would go for 3.
    I don't see it.

    Short of the DUP willing to put Labour into power, option 2 is a no go. The tories aren't going to risk an election when they have a workable majority.

    Absent a deal, what would a another vote ask ? Leave versus Remain has been done.

    Option 1 just happens without intervention by process of law and time.
    That’s why I think when push comes to shove remainers will back May’s deal. The risk of a no deal Brexit in the event of it being voted down is just too high.
    Should be perhaps. But people have shown a remarkable belief that they will get their way, even if the path to it looks unclear (that is hardly a remainer only trait of course), and for the chance that remain could still happen in the chaos of a vote on something failing? And bearing in mind it will take possibly dozens of them to have to rebel against the whip to do this, and this time in support of the government?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,228
    Scott_P said:
    That woman looks remarkably happy for someone who has just been shot in the head.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,417

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Yet again: a referendum does not absolutely need Parliament’s sanction. Australia just had a non-statutory referendum on gay marriage.

    The bigger question is whether the government could ever be persuaded to want one. Time is not really the question.

    If every deal gets voted down (as Labour threaten) and the only alternatives become 1. No deal, 2. A General Election, or 3. A 2nd vote, I reckon the Tories/Commons would go for 3.
    And if it is 3 and we vote to remain,doesn't that put you a Grand out of pocket ?
    Er, yeah
    If 3 does happen then we can expect a Scottish referendum again.
    If it's 3 I do not expect a 2nd Scotch referendum, and if it happened I think YES would lose by a larger margin.

    If Brexit has proved anything (and I am a reluctant Leaver) it is that trying to break up economic/political unions is enormously messy, tedious, divisive and barely possible. And the UK has been closely intertwined for 300 years, not 45.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,417
    Relatedly, it is intriguing how much the French hate Macron. Even as he struts the global stage.

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,483
    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    That woman looks remarkably happy for someone who has just been shot in the head.
    It was a golf ball
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 16,067
    SeanT said:
    No tick. Is that account legit?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,591
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    SeanT said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    SeanT said:

    BREXIT ANECDOTAGE INCOMING

    Strange conversation with a very well informed, well connected, and super intelligent lady friend today. She predicted the Brexit win and the Trump win. She's centre right and was a reluctant Remainer.

    She told me that 1. her strongly Remainer, successful businessman husband has switched to Leave, because of the behaviour of the EU

    2. Yet she also put the chances of a 2nd referendum at 70/30, or 80/20, because no deal (including no deal) can be pushed through parliament, so the politicians will be forced to ask the people again

    3. She predicted that if and when that happened, there was a very good chance Leave would win again, by a bigger margin

    Clearly she is speculating wildly, but she is highly astute and also knows a lot of clever and senior political people. So there ya go.

    When does this referendum get held?

    We are about 5 months out from leaving

    There is no time and it isn't going to happen
    I don't think it likely either, I expect a Withdrawal Agreement but witH FTA left hanging, in Blind Brexit.

    As such a vote to Remain is impossible.

    The only viable means would be via A50 extension, as proposed by Boris. I am sure the EU would not object.
    FWIW I don't agree with my friend that the chances of a 2nd vote are anything like 80%.

    30-50%? Yes.
    In my hypothesised Blind Brexit, options would narrow to the range EEA to WTO, and a #peoplesvote may then occur on the direction of Brexit, in which EEA may well win. I suspect both sides would be exhausted by then.

    Isn’t it a bit pretentious to capitalise a term which you, and only you, use?
    Not just me, indeed my preferred term is "Limbo Brexit", for example:

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/weve-always-been-heading-for-a-blind-brexit_uk_5b72db46e4b0bdd0620cebd3?guccounter=1&guce_referrer_us=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_cs=6vqiyArIrNlNFUpmVHP3cg

    The simple truth is that there is no time for a detailed FTA before Brexit, so any "Deal" would inevitably be WA plus vague promise, to be negotiated later. That vague promise would need another Treaty post Brexit.

    Blind Brexit is a useful shorthand for this scenario.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 31,241
    SeanT said:

    Relatedly, it is intriguing how much the French hate Macron. Even as he struts the global stage.

    twitter.com/post_liberal/status/1047966488399958019

    He does a fantastic job of giving the impression of being totally detached from the man in the street...which the opposite of what most politicos try to do.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,417

    SeanT said:
    No tick. Is that account legit?
    Yes.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,228

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    That woman looks remarkably happy for someone who has just been shot in the head.
    It was a golf ball
    Always said it was a bloody stupid game.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 34,621
    AndyJS said:

    Newsnight has apparently got a big story on DNA and how it affects people's lives. Sounds interesting...

    I've heard DNA can have a big affect on people's lives....


    I'll get my coat. :p
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,320

    SeanT said:

    Relatedly, it is intriguing how much the French hate Macron. Even as he struts the global stage.

    twitter.com/post_liberal/status/1047966488399958019

    He does a fantastic job of giving the impression of being totally detached from the man in the street...which the opposite of what most politicos try to do.
    A bit refreshing though.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,591

    SeanT said:

    Relatedly, it is intriguing how much the French hate Macron. Even as he struts the global stage.

    twitter.com/post_liberal/status/1047966488399958019

    He does a fantastic job of giving the impression of being totally detached from the man in the street...which the opposite of what most politicos try to do.
    He doesn't have another election for nearly 4 years, and then he just needs to be in the top 2 again.

    I think he will have his place in history by then.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 19,460
    Time to go

    Have a pleasant nights rest everyone

    Good night folks
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 31,241
    edited October 4
    Foxy said:

    SeanT said:

    Relatedly, it is intriguing how much the French hate Macron. Even as he struts the global stage.

    twitter.com/post_liberal/status/1047966488399958019

    He does a fantastic job of giving the impression of being totally detached from the man in the street...which the opposite of what most politicos try to do.
    He doesn't have another election for nearly 4 years, and then he just needs to be in the top 2 again.

    I think he will have his place in history by then.
    He was lucky that the French system is as it is and le pen waspopular enough to get in the top 2, but so repulsive to 60% of the French.

    Policy wise he seems very sensible, trying to reform labour laws etc, but he really does seem to have a way of acting superior. A key thing that Blair tried not to do.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,804
    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:

    Yet again: a referendum does not absolutely need Parliament’s sanction. Australia just had a non-statutory referendum on gay marriage.

    The bigger question is whether the government could ever be persuaded to want one. Time is not really the question.

    If every deal gets voted down (as Labour threaten) and the only alternatives become 1. No deal, 2. A General Election, or 3. A 2nd vote, I reckon the Tories/Commons would go for 3.
    I don't see it.

    Short of the DUP willing to put Labour into power, option 2 is a no go. The tories aren't going to risk an election when they have a workable majority.

    Absent a deal, what would a another vote ask ? Leave versus Remain has been done.

    Option 1 just happens without intervention by process of law and time.
    That’s why I think when push comes to shove remainers will back May’s deal. The risk of a no deal Brexit in the event of it being voted down is just too high.
    A few months ago I would have agreed with that but now I think there isn't a genuine belief amongst remainers in Labour, and some Tories, that they can reverse Brexit through a second referendum. This will have been encouraged by the vehemence with which the idea was denounced at the Tory conference, which suggests that leavers see the idea as a serious threat.

    So May now faces three groups of opponents, all of whom think rejection of her deal will play into their hands. The Labour leadership thinks it will lead to a general election, Labour remainers and the people's vote campaigners think it will lead to a second referendum and the ERG think it will lead to a no deal Brexit. So none of these groups will support May and thus she will be unable to get what will inevitably be a pretty crap deal through parliament.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,188
    The Chinese penetration of server hardware is not such big news when you realise the West has been pulling that stunt for years of focussing on the hardware as the entry point, not the software. A couple of very large US companies were quite helpful in that effort as well. Lot of kit that went into competitor nations was compromised.

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,483
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The real big story today, Chinese spying. If true, a totally different level of spying and we should all be worried.

    There is a high degree of computer expertise on this board and this most emphatically does not include me but I am having real problems in understanding how an extra chip would affect control or the operation of a motherboard. Surely the instructions for how chips operate is in the software/coding? Unless the chip had some built in code that operated when triggered to do so? Is that even possible?

    As I say I would love to tap the expertise available on this.

    The original Bloomberg article does a decent job of explaining this for the layman.
    Well not this one because I read it. It said that a chip smaller than a grain of rice had been added to the motherboard. It claimed that this chip allowed access to the system once it was in place giving control or access to the remote user. It didn’t say how.
    Simplfying massively ....

    The small chip only has connect to an external computer and download a larger piece of software into memory. Computer firewalls often do not block outgoing traffic, particularly if that traffic originates from a process identifying itself as a security admin.

    The larger piece of software can then be loaded into memory and tagged as a top-level process and then run unimpeded.

    Helpfully, :D :D in many server systems, any software tagged as belonging to userId 0 (zero) has the highest level of security clearance on the machine, so tagging rogue software is not a difficult process.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,417
    Foxy said:

    SeanT said:

    Relatedly, it is intriguing how much the French hate Macron. Even as he struts the global stage.

    twitter.com/post_liberal/status/1047966488399958019

    He does a fantastic job of giving the impression of being totally detached from the man in the street...which the opposite of what most politicos try to do.
    He doesn't have another election for nearly 4 years, and then he just needs to be in the top 2 again.

    I think he will have his place in history by then.
    Why? His reforms are barely underway. And whether they will work is unknown.

    It's a damn shame he wasn't president during Cameron's pathetic renegotiation, however. He's clearly smart, hates Brexit, and I think might have offered a lot more than Merkel, to avoid the risk of a Leave vote (or at least offered something more sellable).
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Yet again: a referendum does not absolutely need Parliament’s sanction. Australia just had a non-statutory referendum on gay marriage.

    The bigger question is whether the government could ever be persuaded to want one. Time is not really the question.

    If every deal gets voted down (as Labour threaten) and the only alternatives become 1. No deal, 2. A General Election, or 3. A 2nd vote, I reckon the Tories/Commons would go for 3.
    And if it is 3 and we vote to remain,doesn't that put you a Grand out of pocket ?
    Er, yeah
    If 3 does happen then we can expect a Scottish referendum again.
    If it's 3 I do not expect a 2nd Scotch referendum, and if it happened I think YES would lose by a larger margin.

    If Brexit has proved anything (and I am a reluctant Leaver) it is that trying to break up economic/political unions is enormously messy, tedious, divisive and barely possible. And the UK has been closely intertwined for 300 years, not 45.
    Try Scottish, scotch is something you drink or tomatoes. Sorry, just realised which one was your preference..
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,210

    The real big story today, Chinese spying. If true, a totally different level of spying and we should all be worried.

    Absolutely.

    Doesn't half make you wonder about all your Chinese-made products.

    More-than-doubly so if you are a government or large corporation, I suspect.
    People laughed at US being down on ZTE and huawei as some weird trump stunt about va-China...huawei’s core business is commercial network products...I believe the UK government has a lot of their products.
    Apple are emphatic in their denials. Not using cagey legalese. But firmly saying no this didn’t happen.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,417
    edited October 4
    OchEye said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Yet again: a referendum does not absolutely need Parliament’s sanction. Australia just had a non-statutory referendum on gay marriage.

    The bigger question is whether the government could ever be persuaded to want one. Time is not really the question.

    If every deal gets voted down (as Labour threaten) and the only alternatives become 1. No deal, 2. A General Election, or 3. A 2nd vote, I reckon the Tories/Commons would go for 3.
    And if it is 3 and we vote to remain,doesn't that put you a Grand out of pocket ?
    Er, yeah
    If 3 does happen then we can expect a Scottish referendum again.
    If it's 3 I do not expect a 2nd Scotch referendum, and if it happened I think YES would lose by a larger margin.

    If Brexit has proved anything (and I am a reluctant Leaver) it is that trying to break up economic/political unions is enormously messy, tedious, divisive and barely possible. And the UK has been closely intertwined for 300 years, not 45.
    Try Scottish, scotch is something you drink or tomatoes. Sorry, just realised which one was your preference..
    Scotch is perfectly grammatical and acceptable in English. That is to say: the language of the English people, such as me. If the Scotch don't like being called Scotch by the English in English, they can always go back to speaking Gaelic, or whatever tiny, incomprehensible dialect they used to gibber at each other between famines.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The real big story today, Chinese spying. If true, a totally different level of spying and we should all be worried.

    There is a high degree of computer expertise on this board and this most emphatically does not include me but I am having real problems in understanding how an extra chip would affect control or the operation of a motherboard. Surely the instructions for how chips operate is in the software/coding? Unless the chip had some built in code that operated when triggered to do so? Is that even possible?

    As I say I would love to tap the expertise available on this.

    The original Bloomberg article does a decent job of explaining this for the layman.
    Well not this one because I read it. It said that a chip smaller than a grain of rice had been added to the motherboard. It claimed that this chip allowed access to the system once it was in place giving control or access to the remote user. It didn’t say how.
    Please explain why nothing can exceed the speed of light.. ..
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,483
    OchEye said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The real big story today, Chinese spying. If true, a totally different level of spying and we should all be worried.

    There is a high degree of computer expertise on this board and this most emphatically does not include me but I am having real problems in understanding how an extra chip would affect control or the operation of a motherboard. Surely the instructions for how chips operate is in the software/coding? Unless the chip had some built in code that operated when triggered to do so? Is that even possible?

    As I say I would love to tap the expertise available on this.

    The original Bloomberg article does a decent job of explaining this for the layman.
    Well not this one because I read it. It said that a chip smaller than a grain of rice had been added to the motherboard. It claimed that this chip allowed access to the system once it was in place giving control or access to the remote user. It didn’t say how.
    Please explain why nothing can exceed the speed of light.. ..
    Nothing can exceed the speed of light because light travels at the same speed for all observers irrespective of their actual motion.

    Basic relativity :)
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,417

    OchEye said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The real big story today, Chinese spying. If true, a totally different level of spying and we should all be worried.

    There is a high degree of computer expertise on this board and this most emphatically does not include me but I am having real problems in understanding how an extra chip would affect control or the operation of a motherboard. Surely the instructions for how chips operate is in the software/coding? Unless the chip had some built in code that operated when triggered to do so? Is that even possible?

    As I say I would love to tap the expertise available on this.

    The original Bloomberg article does a decent job of explaining this for the layman.
    Well not this one because I read it. It said that a chip smaller than a grain of rice had been added to the motherboard. It claimed that this chip allowed access to the system once it was in place giving control or access to the remote user. It didn’t say how.
    Please explain why nothing can exceed the speed of light.. ..
    Nothing can exceed the speed of light because light travels at the same speed for all observers irrespective of their actual motion.

    Basic relativity :)
    Except information between observed particles on a quantum level, which appears to travel at infinite speed: literally taking no time at all.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 34,621

    OchEye said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The real big story today, Chinese spying. If true, a totally different level of spying and we should all be worried.

    There is a high degree of computer expertise on this board and this most emphatically does not include me but I am having real problems in understanding how an extra chip would affect control or the operation of a motherboard. Surely the instructions for how chips operate is in the software/coding? Unless the chip had some built in code that operated when triggered to do so? Is that even possible?

    As I say I would love to tap the expertise available on this.

    The original Bloomberg article does a decent job of explaining this for the layman.
    Well not this one because I read it. It said that a chip smaller than a grain of rice had been added to the motherboard. It claimed that this chip allowed access to the system once it was in place giving control or access to the remote user. It didn’t say how.
    Please explain why nothing can exceed the speed of light.. ..
    Nothing can exceed the speed of light because light travels at the same speed for all observers irrespective of their actual motion.

    Basic relativity :)
    Doesn't a photon appear to be stationary relative to another photon moving in the same direction?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 9,828
    OchEye said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The real big story today, Chinese spying. If true, a totally different level of spying and we should all be worried.

    There is a high degree of computer expertise on this board and this most emphatically does not include me but I am having real problems in understanding how an extra chip would affect control or the operation of a motherboard. Surely the instructions for how chips operate is in the software/coding? Unless the chip had some built in code that operated when triggered to do so? Is that even possible?

    As I say I would love to tap the expertise available on this.

    The original Bloomberg article does a decent job of explaining this for the layman.
    Well not this one because I read it. It said that a chip smaller than a grain of rice had been added to the motherboard. It claimed that this chip allowed access to the system once it was in place giving control or access to the remote user. It didn’t say how.
    Please explain why nothing can exceed the speed of light.. ..
    Cuts. Southern trains running it.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,483
    SeanT said:

    OchEye said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The real big story today, Chinese spying. If true, a totally different level of spying and we should all be worried.

    There is a high degree of computer expertise on this board and this most emphatically does not include me but I am having real problems in understanding how an extra chip would affect control or the operation of a motherboard. Surely the instructions for how chips operate is in the software/coding? Unless the chip had some built in code that operated when triggered to do so? Is that even possible?

    As I say I would love to tap the expertise available on this.

    The original Bloomberg article does a decent job of explaining this for the layman.
    Well not this one because I read it. It said that a chip smaller than a grain of rice had been added to the motherboard. It claimed that this chip allowed access to the system once it was in place giving control or access to the remote user. It didn’t say how.
    Please explain why nothing can exceed the speed of light.. ..
    Nothing can exceed the speed of light because light travels at the same speed for all observers irrespective of their actual motion.

    Basic relativity :)
    Except information between observed particles on a quantum level, which appears to travel at infinite speed: literally taking no time at all.
    Only if the particles have a quantum entanglement. There also appears to be a restriction on "meaningful" information however that is defined.
  • sladeslade Posts: 652
    Lib Dems gain Chesterfield(Moor) from Labour. Tony Rogers wins back his seat at the age of 80.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,483
    RobD said:

    OchEye said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The real big story today, Chinese spying. If true, a totally different level of spying and we should all be worried.

    There is a high degree of computer expertise on this board and this most emphatically does not include me but I am having real problems in understanding how an extra chip would affect control or the operation of a motherboard. Surely the instructions for how chips operate is in the software/coding? Unless the chip had some built in code that operated when triggered to do so? Is that even possible?

    As I say I would love to tap the expertise available on this.

    The original Bloomberg article does a decent job of explaining this for the layman.
    Well not this one because I read it. It said that a chip smaller than a grain of rice had been added to the motherboard. It claimed that this chip allowed access to the system once it was in place giving control or access to the remote user. It didn’t say how.
    Please explain why nothing can exceed the speed of light.. ..
    Nothing can exceed the speed of light because light travels at the same speed for all observers irrespective of their actual motion.

    Basic relativity :)
    Doesn't a photon appear to be stationary relative to another photon moving in the same direction?
    Everything is stationary to a photon because no time passes for a photon
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 10,585
    Oh dear long day.

    WTF am I watching QT

    And now I'm not
  • RobDRobD Posts: 34,621

    RobD said:

    OchEye said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The real big story today, Chinese spying. If true, a totally different level of spying and we should all be worried.

    There is a high degree of computer expertise on this board and this most emphatically does not include me but I am having real problems in understanding how an extra chip would affect control or the operation of a motherboard. Surely the instructions for how chips operate is in the software/coding? Unless the chip had some built in code that operated when triggered to do so? Is that even possible?

    As I say I would love to tap the expertise available on this.

    The original Bloomberg article does a decent job of explaining this for the layman.
    Well not this one because I read it. It said that a chip smaller than a grain of rice had been added to the motherboard. It claimed that this chip allowed access to the system once it was in place giving control or access to the remote user. It didn’t say how.
    Please explain why nothing can exceed the speed of light.. ..
    Nothing can exceed the speed of light because light travels at the same speed for all observers irrespective of their actual motion.

    Basic relativity :)
    Doesn't a photon appear to be stationary relative to another photon moving in the same direction?
    Everything is stationary to a photon because no time passes for a photon
    OK, so relative to that photon light moves slower ;)
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,483

    Oh dear long day.

    WTF am I watching QT

    And now I'm not

    Are they still broadcasting that dreadful programme? Surely it should have been put down years ago as an act of kindness to the nation.

    Is it still followed by the Diane and Michael show?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,085
    See people have finally decided Brexit is a bit bloody complex...and moved on to quantum physics...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 10,585
    LD Gain Moor ward Chestefield
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,591

    Oh dear long day.

    WTF am I watching QT

    And now I'm not

    Are they still broadcasting that dreadful programme? Surely it should have been put down years ago as an act of kindness to the nation.

    Is it still followed by the Diane and Michael show?
    Yes, but Diane no longer does it since being a front bencher. Its Chuka tonight.

    BBCQT pretty lame again tonight.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 10,585
    11% swing to LD from Labour Moor Ward Chesterfield 49/37
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,483
    dixiedean said:

    See people have finally decided Brexit is a bit bloody complex...and moved on to quantum physics...

    Brexit fails to deal with reality. Quantum Physics is reality.

    It makes a refreshing change...
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,483
    Foxy said:

    Oh dear long day.

    WTF am I watching QT

    And now I'm not

    Are they still broadcasting that dreadful programme? Surely it should have been put down years ago as an act of kindness to the nation.

    Is it still followed by the Diane and Michael show?
    Yes, but Diane no longer does it since being a front bencher. Its Chuka tonight.

    BBCQT pretty lame again tonight.
    It was lame when I gave it up years ago - five or six years, maybe more....
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 10,585
    Goodnight
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,483
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    OchEye said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The real big story today, Chinese spying. If true, a totally different level of spying and we should all be worried.

    There is a high degree of computer expertise on this board and this most emphatically does not include me but I am having real problems in understanding how an extra chip would affect control or the operation of a motherboard. Surely the instructions for how chips operate is in the software/coding? Unless the chip had some built in code that operated when triggered to do so? Is that even possible?

    As I say I would love to tap the expertise available on this.

    The original Bloomberg article does a decent job of explaining this for the layman.
    Well not this one because I read it. It said that a chip smaller than a grain of rice had been added to the motherboard. It claimed that this chip allowed access to the system once it was in place giving control or access to the remote user. It didn’t say how.
    Please explain why nothing can exceed the speed of light.. ..
    Nothing can exceed the speed of light because light travels at the same speed for all observers irrespective of their actual motion.

    Basic relativity :)
    Doesn't a photon appear to be stationary relative to another photon moving in the same direction?
    Everything is stationary to a photon because no time passes for a photon
    OK, so relative to that photon light moves slower ;)
    Well... yes.... in the sense that nothing moves from a photon's point of view. So on the basis that "stationary" is slower than not-stationary .....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 34,621

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    OchEye said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The real big story today, Chinese spying. If true, a totally different level of spying and we should all be worried.

    There is a high degree of computer expertise on this board and this most emphatically does not include me but I am having real problems in understanding how an extra chip would affect control or the operation of a motherboard. Surely the instructions for how chips operate is in the software/coding? Unless the chip had some built in code that operated when triggered to do so? Is that even possible?

    As I say I would love to tap the expertise available on this.

    The original Bloomberg article does a decent job of explaining this for the layman.
    Well not this one because I read it. It said that a chip smaller than a grain of rice had been added to the motherboard. It claimed that this chip allowed access to the system once it was in place giving control or access to the remote user. It didn’t say how.
    Please explain why nothing can exceed the speed of light.. ..
    Nothing can exceed the speed of light because light travels at the same speed for all observers irrespective of their actual motion.

    Basic relativity :)
    Doesn't a photon appear to be stationary relative to another photon moving in the same direction?
    Everything is stationary to a photon because no time passes for a photon
    OK, so relative to that photon light moves slower ;)
    Well... yes.... in the sense that nothing moves from a photon's point of view. So on the basis that "stationary" is slower than not-stationary .....
    Just saying that light does move at different speeds depending on their motion. It's all relative ;)
This discussion has been closed.