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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If LAB was really concerned about Corbyn’s 2014 Tunisia covera

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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,914

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    maaarsh said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MAGA

    So when the Maine 2020 Senate market opens up, should I be laying the GOP like there's no tomorrow?
    Depends how much money you want to lose. She has a 36% majority.
    Although 2014 was a very good year for the Republicans, and Maine will also be voting (heavily) for a Democratic President in 2020.

    She should be favourite, sure, but not an overwhelming one.
    Collins won by 23% in 2008 when Obama won Maine by 17%.
    Sure. But that was based around a good amount of bipartisanship. She may not have that to rely on in 2020.
    She'll say that she voted for Kagan and Sotomayor as well - she has the voting record to back up her bipartisanship.
    We'll see, but I'd reckon she'll have a sub 10% lead in 2020.
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,748
    RobD said:

    Omnium said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Omnium said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Omnium said:

    "One of the UK’s most prominent journalists, Carole Cadwalladr". Is that really true?

    "Some weird journalist that no-ones ever heard of." is more the mark. Doesn't make her wrong mind you.




    Ummm: her "scoops" which turned out to be fabrications make her wrong.
    You misinterpret and misquote (I'm sure accidentally) me. I was just saying that because I've never heard of her doesn't mean she's wrong. I have no view at all on the truthfulness of what she's said.
    Trust me on this, then, she's not the most accurate of journalists.
    I didn't for one moment suggest she was. I suggested that she wasn't one of the UK's most prominent journalists. Nothing more. I have no view on her work because I've never heard of her. I can't say if it's the most elegant. brilliant and insightful of work, or the crayon-unworthy daubs of someone like myself.

    I'm 100% sure though that just because I've never heard of her, and that you and others seem to disapprove of her, she isn't necessarily wrong.

    The number of corrections and clarifications she has had to issue suggests otherwise.
    A football team loses a game. You know nothing else. Surely they have 100% chance to lose the next?

    Nobody is wrong all the time. A complete fool is wrong half the time - almost by definition.
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    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391

    rcs1000 said:

    Worth noting that the Republican Senator from Montana will not be in Washington this weekend for the vote, as he'll be at a wedding. So it'll probably end up 50-49.

    Is it his own wedding ?

    It will be his political funeral if its 49-50.
    It's his daughters, and they can double check after the first count and then hold the vote open, so there is really no risk at all.
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    maaarsh said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MAGA

    So when the Maine 2020 Senate market opens up, should I be laying the GOP like there's no tomorrow?
    Depends how much money you want to lose. She has a 36% majority.
    Although 2014 was a very good year for the Republicans, and Maine will also be voting (heavily) for a Democratic President in 2020.

    She should be favourite, sure, but not an overwhelming one.
    Collins won by 23% in 2008 when Obama won Maine by 17%.
    Sure. But that was based around a good amount of bipartisanship. She may not have that to rely on in 2020.
    She'll say that she voted for Kagan and Sotomayor as well - she has the voting record to back up her bipartisanship.
    I think some US lawmakers will come to regret supporting Kavanaugh. It's not as if rejecting him would mean Trump would recommend a liberal judge in his stead.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,914
    Interesting that neither of Maine's Senators are Democrats.
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    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that neither of Maine's Senators are Democrats.

    King is to most intents and purposes, but hard to read too much electorally from a 3 way race
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    kle4 said:

    Good - It would be nice if there was a deal, on transition or anything else, which could be backed on a cross party basis. Or even had a couple of dozen on either side cross the floor on the issue.
    May should never have made Brexit a partisan issue in the first place.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,871
    Scott_P said:
    They'll quit? Where would JRM, Boris, Davis etc go to?

    Oh, it means they want May to go?

    HaHaHaHaHa.

    Ha.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,788
    MikeL said:

    JohnO said:

    I see BMG’s latest poll has fallen back into line with Labour 39 (-1), Cons 38 (+2), LibDems 10 (-2).

    The last BMG was Lab 40, Con 35 - so this is Con +3.

    Still quite a wide variation between pollsters - most recent for each pollster:

    YouGov - Con +6
    Opinium - Con +3
    ICM - Con +1
    ComRes - Lab +1
    BMG - Lab +1

    All within last 10 days - though at different points in Conference cycle.

    How do things look with Survation? :D
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,788
    edited October 2018

    Scott_P said:
    They'll quit? Where would JRM, Boris, Davis etc go to?

    Oh, it means they want May to go?

    HaHaHaHaHa.

    Ha.
    You wouldn't totally rule out Boris setting up his own Party would you? ;)
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    You're Kavanaugh laugh! :lol:
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,748
    MaxPB said:

    Omnium said:

    MaxPB said:

    Omnium said:

    MaxPB said:

    Omnium said:

    MaxPB said:

    Omnium said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    Erdogan suggests a referendum on whether Turkey should continue to apply to join the EU

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1ME26K

    "continue to apply"? The man must be a xenophobic liar.
    Liar as in then haven't been a serious applicant for a while? I'm not sure I see Xenophobic in what he's said.

    On the face of it I'd think that a referendum was an ok idea on the subject. As I'm British though the whole referendum idea has to be discarded forever-more.

    Turkey has been treated a little bit poorly by the EU in my view. (Turkey applying for EU membership is nothing like a tiny country doing so).

    It'd be much better really if the countries of the middle east got together to just plain agree. A MEU of Turkey, Iran, Israel, and Egypt would have some clout.

    Err, right.
    Why not? Is Israel somehow different?

    These are the 4, and they can be outstanding together. They're not doing so well apart.
    Yes?
    No.
    Has your weekend release from the asylum started early or something?!
    Are you telling me you escaped?

    Hey no need to sweep up if you did.

    Abuse aside. These nations are clear potential allies. They're educated, sophisticated, and are their own masters. Whatever we might think, the people of these nations have been doing joined-up-thinking for far longer than we have.
    If you ignore a thousand years of enmity and mistrust and war, sure.

    The notion that Israel would go into an alliance with a country that wants to eliminate it from the map is absurd.
    Think about the UK and France.

    I totally agree it seems wildly unlikely, but the UK and France rather swiftly ended the enmity and became the firmest of friends, and even two or three times there was the prospect aired of union.


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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    Dadge said:

    kle4 said:

    Good - It would be nice if there was a deal, on transition or anything else, which could be backed on a cross party basis. Or even had a couple of dozen on either side cross the floor on the issue.
    May should never have made Brexit a partisan issue in the first place.
    I'm not sure she could have entirely prevented it becoming so, but she certainly did not even attempt to do so.
    Scott_P said:
    Ok, I know since we're political wonks we often are aware of stories before they appear in the papers, but surely that ultimatum has been made before? What exactly is holding them up from acting? They claim at various times to have the numbers to spark a VONC and whether they'd win or not is irrelevant - if they are making an ultimatum, at least attempt to act against her.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    They'll quit? Where would JRM, Boris, Davis etc go to?

    Oh, it means they want May to go?

    HaHaHaHaHa.

    Ha.
    You wouldn't totally rule out Boris setting up his own Party would you? ;)
    He'd only do it if he could call it Boris's English Party

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katter's_Australian_Party
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    MaxPB said:

    Omnium said:

    MaxPB said:

    Omnium said:

    MaxPB said:

    Omnium said:

    MaxPB said:

    Omnium said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    Erdogan suggests a referendum on whether Turkey should continue to apply to join the EU

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1ME26K

    "continue to apply"? The man must be a xenophobic liar.
    Liar as in then haven't been a serious applicant for a while? I'm not sure I see Xenophobic in what he's said.

    On the face of it I'd think that a referendum was an ok idea on the subject. As I'm British though the whole referendum idea has to be discarded forever-more.

    Turkey has been treated a little bit poorly by the EU in my view. (Turkey applying for EU membership is nothing like a tiny country doing so).

    It'd be much better really if the countries of the middle east got together to just plain agree. A MEU of Turkey, Iran, Israel, and Egypt would have some clout.

    Err, right.
    Why not? Is Israel somehow different?

    These are the 4, and they can be outstanding together. They're not doing so well apart.
    Yes?
    No.
    Has your weekend release from the asylum started early or something?!
    Are you telling me you escaped?

    Hey no need to sweep up if you did.

    Abuse aside. These nations are clear potential allies. They're educated, sophisticated, and are their own masters. Whatever we might think, the people of these nations have been doing joined-up-thinking for far longer than we have.
    If you ignore a thousand years of enmity and mistrust and war, sure.
    Sounds like us and France.
    We were Allies in two World Wars. And Crimea.
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    kle4 said:

    Dadge said:

    kle4 said:

    Good - It would be nice if there was a deal, on transition or anything else, which could be backed on a cross party basis. Or even had a couple of dozen on either side cross the floor on the issue.
    May should never have made Brexit a partisan issue in the first place.
    I'm not sure she could have entirely prevented it becoming so, but she certainly did not even attempt to do so.
    Scott_P said:
    Ok, I know since we're political wonks we often are aware of stories before they appear in the papers, but surely that ultimatum has been made before? What exactly is holding them up from acting? They claim at various times to have the numbers to spark a VONC and whether they'd win or not is irrelevant - if they are making an ultimatum, at least attempt to act against her.
    They seem to be saying if her deal fails in the HOC and the EU

    In those circumstances the majority of remainer mps will take it out of their hands. Even 100 ERG is no match for 550 on the other side.

    TM warned them come together or run the prospect of not leaving
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    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    On topic - what makes Labour look worse - dropping a complaint or not filing paperwork on time when the extenuating circumstance is having your annual conference? I would have thought the latter
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    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    They'll quit? Where would JRM, Boris, Davis etc go to?

    Oh, it means they want May to go?

    HaHaHaHaHa.

    Ha.
    You wouldn't totally rule out Boris setting up his own Party would you? ;)
    Yes
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,871
    Pulpstar said:

    4 country alliances more likely than Turkey-Israel-Egpyt-Iran

    Cuba-USA-Russia-Pakistan
    England-Venezuela-France-China
    1649-1700s Ireland-England-Netherlands-Scotland

    Amongst others..

    My ill-informed view:

    An alliance between Turkey and Israel is certainly a possibility, as they've got on very well in the past - though their relationship been up and down a bit recently. However Erdogan wouldn't want an official one as it would upset his base. Another leader might find one tempting. The same can be said for Netanyahu .

    Turkey and Egypt is the same, except with deeper troughs and not much higher peaks. AIUI they're very much in a trough, with Gulen - yes, him again - at the centre of it.

    Israel and Iran is laughable. I bet there are back channels for tactical co-operation on occasion, but their interests, economies and philosophies are miles apart. And that's leaving aside thee fact that one does not even accept the right of the other to exist.

    Israel and Egypt is an interesting one, and I don't know enough about it to say more. I get the impression el-Sisi might just fancy rocking the boat with that sort of move - if the military let him.

    Iran and Egypt - no chance. Egypt is Sunni, Iran Shia.

    In short: it isn't going to happen, and if it did would only last as long as all the leaders agreeing it survived (politically or biologically). And the unhappiness such an alliance would cause would make that a very short period ...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609

    On topic - what makes Labour look worse - dropping a complaint or not filing paperwork on time when the extenuating circumstance is having your annual conference? I would have thought the latter

    The former, as it is seen as an admission saying you were going to complain was a mistake. Not filing on time would be a silly error, but everyone does make errors, and it doesn't have to be a very plausible explanation, just plausible enough for supporters. And as others have noted, it means they can tell people they definitely would have had their complaint upheld, without needing to risk anything.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,871
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    They'll quit? Where would JRM, Boris, Davis etc go to?

    Oh, it means they want May to go?

    HaHaHaHaHa.

    Ha.
    You wouldn't totally rule out Boris setting up his own Party would you? ;)
    I did wonder a month or so back whether Boris might want to take over UKIP and mould (sp) it in his own image. I think Boris would be a very poor political leader, but he'd be better than any UKIP has had post-Farage.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    kle4 said:

    Dadge said:

    kle4 said:

    Good - It would be nice if there was a deal, on transition or anything else, which could be backed on a cross party basis. Or even had a couple of dozen on either side cross the floor on the issue.
    May should never have made Brexit a partisan issue in the first place.
    I'm not sure she could have entirely prevented it becoming so, but she certainly did not even attempt to do so.
    She did the most possible to take partisan advantage from Brexit. Although in fairness Corbyn is the Labour leader least likely to have engaged with a bipartisan approach. I can't imagine him behaving reasonably if offered a seat on a cross-party Brexit Committee for example.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609

    kle4 said:

    Dadge said:

    kle4 said:

    Good - It would be nice if there was a deal, on transition or anything else, which could be backed on a cross party basis. Or even had a couple of dozen on either side cross the floor on the issue.
    May should never have made Brexit a partisan issue in the first place.
    I'm not sure she could have entirely prevented it becoming so, but she certainly did not even attempt to do so.
    She did the most possible to take partisan advantage from Brexit. Although in fairness Corbyn is the Labour leader least likely to have engaged with a bipartisan approach. I can't imagine him behaving reasonably if offered a seat on a cross-party Brexit Committee for example.
    Nor can I, but I agree she didn't try that route in any case.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    GIN1138 said:

    MikeL said:

    JohnO said:

    I see BMG’s latest poll has fallen back into line with Labour 39 (-1), Cons 38 (+2), LibDems 10 (-2).

    The last BMG was Lab 40, Con 35 - so this is Con +3.

    Still quite a wide variation between pollsters - most recent for each pollster:

    YouGov - Con +6
    Opinium - Con +3
    ICM - Con +1
    ComRes - Lab +1
    BMG - Lab +1

    All within last 10 days - though at different points in Conference cycle.

    How do things look with Survation? :D
    The Tories led Labour 38% to 37% with the LDs on 10% and UKIP on 4% in the most recent Survation last month


    https://www.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Daily-Mail-Final-Tables.pdf
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,210

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    They'll quit? Where would JRM, Boris, Davis etc go to?

    Oh, it means they want May to go?

    HaHaHaHaHa.

    Ha.
    You wouldn't totally rule out Boris setting up his own Party would you? ;)
    I did wonder a month or so back whether Boris might want to take over UKIP and mould (sp) it in his own image. I think Boris would be a very poor political leader, but he'd be better than any UKIP has had post-Farage.
    Twould be way too much like hard work for Boris. He is essentially a clever but lazy man who relies on being able to wing his way through life.
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    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    Erdogan suggests a referendum on whether Turkey should continue to apply to join the EU

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1ME26K

    "continue to apply"? The man must be a xenophobic liar.
    Well..
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    Scott_P said:
    If she survives a VONC as is likely that takes her past Brexit with no further no confidence vote allowed for a year
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,871
    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    They'll quit? Where would JRM, Boris, Davis etc go to?

    Oh, it means they want May to go?

    HaHaHaHaHa.

    Ha.
    You wouldn't totally rule out Boris setting up his own Party would you? ;)
    I did wonder a month or so back whether Boris might want to take over UKIP and mould (sp) it in his own image. I think Boris would be a very poor political leader, but he'd be better than any UKIP has had post-Farage.
    Twould be way too much like hard work for Boris. He is essentially a clever but lazy man who relies on being able to wing his way through life.
    I agree.

    Yet he yearns to be PM, and he has been around enough PMs to understand exactly how much hard work that role is. Just look at the effect it had on Blair.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Omnium said:

    MaxPB said:

    Omnium said:

    MaxPB said:

    Omnium said:

    MaxPB said:

    Omnium said:

    MaxPB said:

    Omnium said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    Erdogan suggests a referendum on whether Turkey should continue to apply to join the EU

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1ME26K

    "continue to apply"? The man must be a xenophobic liar.
    Liar as in then haven't been a serious applicant for a while? I'm not sure I see Xenophobic in what he's said.

    On the face of it I'd think that a referendum was an ok idea on the subject. As I'm British though the whole referendum idea has to be discarded forever-more.

    Turkey has been treated a little bit poorly by the EU in my view. (Turkey applying for EU membership is nothing like a tiny country doing so).

    It'd be much better really if the countries of the middle east got together to just plain agree. A MEU of Turkey, Iran, Israel, and Egypt would have some clout.

    Err, right.
    Why not? Is Israel somehow different?

    These are the 4, and they can be outstanding together. They're not doing so well apart.
    Yes?
    No.
    Has your weekend release from the asylum started early or something?!
    Are you telling me you escaped?

    Hey no need to sweep up if you did.

    Abuse aside. These nations are clear potential allies. They're educated, sophisticated, and are their own masters. Whatever we might think, the people of these nations have been doing joined-up-thinking for far longer than we have.
    If you ignore a thousand years of enmity and mistrust and war, sure.

    The notion that Israel would go into an alliance with a country that wants to eliminate it from the map is absurd.
    Think about the UK and France.

    I totally agree it seems wildly unlikely, but the UK and France rather swiftly ended the enmity and became the firmest of friends, and even two or three times there was the prospect aired of union.
    I can think of a couple of reasons why the enmity between France and Britain ended.

    Firstly, Britain comprehensively won the Great Power contest between the two. Secondly, Russia, and then Germany, emerged as a common enemy.

    Israel have certainly proved their military pre-eminence against their neighbouring states, but not directly so against Iran. Perhaps you could argue that half of one part of the mix is there. Who is the common enemy? I don't see one.
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    The cabinet have finally cottoned on what I've been banging on for ages about.

    Universal Credit is about to screw an awful lot of voters.

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/1048316232804564992
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    They'll quit? Where would JRM, Boris, Davis etc go to?

    Oh, it means they want May to go?

    HaHaHaHaHa.

    Ha.
    You wouldn't totally rule out Boris setting up his own Party would you? ;)
    I did wonder a month or so back whether Boris might want to take over UKIP and mould (sp) it in his own image. I think Boris would be a very poor political leader, but he'd be better than any UKIP has had post-Farage.
    Twould be way too much like hard work for Boris. He is essentially a clever but lazy man who relies on being able to wing his way through life.
    I agree.

    Yet he yearns to be PM, and he has been around enough PMs to understand exactly how much hard work that role is. Just look at the effect it had on Blair.
    It is possible to be relatively lazy and lead a country, Reagan for example fell asleep in Cabinet meetings and spent much of his evenings watching soap operas and yet he won 2 landslide elections, the economy boomed on his watch and the Cold War neared its end and he polls as the best Republican President of the last half century.

    Lazy optimism is often better than hard working dourness in a leader (though you need some with the latter around them), contrast say Reagan to Gordon Brown
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987

    JohnO said:

    I see BMG’s latest poll has fallen back into line with Labour 39 (-1), Cons 38 (+2), LibDems 10 (-2).

    The last BMG was Labour 40 - Conservatives 35 - Lib dem 12

    So that is Labour (39) - 1 - Conservatives (38) + 3 - Lib dems (10) - 2

    Labour also lost a seat last night to the Lib Dems

    Not much cheer for labour and this week labour have:

    Fallen out in Scotland

    Fall out every day in England

    And tonight chaos in Liverpool

    To be fair you predicted that the 6-point Tory lead was an outlier and I predicted the 5-point Labour one was, and we were both right. Put it there, pardner!
    Indeed Nick - but I am a bit surprised todays you gov retains that 6% lead and it was completed after labour's conference and before the conservatives and TM's speech

    However I think the polls need a pinch of salt at present
    I agree, a good result for the Tories. It was however taken in the middle of the Tory conference (Sun/Mon), amid massive coverage of Tories, good and bad.

    As you say, best taken with caution anyway. I suspect things will only settle down after the Brexit deal which appears to be approaching - if then.
    Looking at the moving averages including the latest two polls, it looks like the Tories are holding steady at 39% and Labour are leaking a few votes to the LibDems.

    As a result, Lib Dems gain one seat from the Tories and Tories gain seven seats from Labour compared with a month ago. Tories 24 off an overall majority at 302 seats.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,894
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    If she survives a VONC as is likely that takes her past Brexit with no further no confidence vote allowed for a year
    Doubt one takes place, the ERG has huffed and puffed to this place before.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    They'll quit? Where would JRM, Boris, Davis etc go to?

    Oh, it means they want May to go?

    HaHaHaHaHa.

    Ha.
    You wouldn't totally rule out Boris setting up his own Party would you? ;)
    I did wonder a month or so back whether Boris might want to take over UKIP and mould (sp) it in his own image. I think Boris would be a very poor political leader, but he'd be better than any UKIP has had post-Farage.
    Twould be way too much like hard work for Boris. He is essentially a clever but lazy man who relies on being able to wing his way through life.
    I agree.

    Yet he yearns to be PM, and he has been around enough PMs to understand exactly how much hard work that role is. Just look at the effect it had on Blair.
    It is possible to be relatively lazy and lead a country, Reagan for example fell asleep in Cabinet meetings and spent much of his evenings watching soap operas and yet he won 2 landslide elections, the economy boomed on his watch and the Cold War neared its end and he polls as the best Republican President of the last half century.

    Lazy optimism is often better than hard working dourness in a leader (though you need some with the latter around them), contrast say Reagan to Gordon Brown
    It is easier to be a lazy president, who can't be replaced for four years or so, than to be a lazy prime minister, who could be replaced this week.

    A prime minister, is not just the opposite number of the president but also of the leaders in Congress and of the party machine.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    If she survives a VONC as is likely that takes her past Brexit with no further no confidence vote allowed for a year
    This keeps being repeated. The rule can be amended very easily. If there is a strong groundswell of support for a second vote within a year, one will come about.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    The cabinet have finally cottoned on what I've been banging on for ages about.

    Universal Credit is about to screw an awful lot of voters.

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/1048316232804564992

    There are apparently an awful lot of ways in which Universal Credit is ludicrously bad. For example, if you receive your monthly salary early in the month of December the system interprets that as your pay being doubled and stops your payments and terminates your claim. You then have to reapply, lose out on a month of payments and have to wait ages for your claim to be processed. The official advice is to save up money to allow for this absurdity, because the system can't possibly deal with you receiving a salary payment early.

    Similar things happen to people paid on a four-weekly basis rather than monthly. The system is unable to average out their earnings over the year, so people have to do without the help they are entitled to for one month every year.

    These things shouldn't have been hard to get right. There's no great ideological principle at stake.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    Barnesian said:

    JohnO said:

    I see BMG’s latest poll has fallen back into line with Labour 39 (-1), Cons 38 (+2), LibDems 10 (-2).

    The last BMG was Labour 40 - Conservatives 35 - Lib dem 12

    So that is Labour (39) - 1 - Conservatives (38) + 3 - Lib dems (10) - 2

    Labour also lost a seat last night to the Lib Dems

    Not much cheer for labour and this week labour have:

    Fallen out in Scotland

    Fall out every day in England

    And tonight chaos in Liverpool

    To be fair you predicted that the 6-point Tory lead was an outlier and I predicted the 5-point Labour one was, and we were both right. Put it there, pardner!
    Indeed Nick - but I am a bit surprised todays you gov retains that 6% lead and it was completed after labour's conference and before the conservatives and TM's speech

    However I think the polls need a pinch of salt at present
    I agree, a good result for the Tories. It was however taken in the middle of the Tory conference (Sun/Mon), amid massive coverage of Tories, good and bad.

    As you say, best taken with caution anyway. I suspect things will only settle down after the Brexit deal which appears to be approaching - if then.
    Looking at the moving averages including the latest two polls, it looks like the Tories are holding steady at 39% and Labour are leaking a few votes to the LibDems.

    As a result, Lib Dems gain one seat from the Tories and Tories gain seven seats from Labour compared with a month ago. Tories 24 off an overall majority at 302 seats.
    LDs hold the balance of power then on those numbers
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,914

    Omnium said:

    MaxPB said:

    Omnium said:

    MaxPB said:

    Omnium said:

    MaxPB said:

    Omnium said:

    MaxPB said:

    Omnium said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    Erdogan suggests a referendum on whether Turkey should continue to apply to join the EU

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1ME26K

    "continue to apply"? The man must be a xenophobic liar.
    Liar as in then haven't been a serious applicant for a while? I'm not sure I see Xenophobic in what he's said.

    On the face of it I'd think that a referendum was an ok idea on the subject. As I'm British though the whole referendum idea has to be discarded forever-more.

    Turkey has been treated a little bit poorly by the EU in my view. (Turkey applying for EU membership is nothing like a tiny country doing so).

    It'd be much better really if the countries of the middle east got together to just plain agree. A MEU of Turkey, Iran, Israel, and Egypt would have some clout.

    Err, right.
    Why not? Is Israel somehow different?

    These are the 4, and they can be outstanding together. They're not doing so well apart.
    Yes?
    No.
    Has your weekend release from the asylum started early or something?!
    Are you telling me you escaped?

    Hey no need to sweep up if you did.

    Abuse aside. These nations are clear potential allies. They're educated, sophisticated, and are their own masters. Whatever we might think, the people of these nations have been doing joined-up-thinking for far longer than we have.
    If you ignore a thousand years of enmity and mistrust and war, sure.

    The notion that Israel would go into an alliance with a country that wants to eliminate it from the map is absurd.
    Think about the UK and France.

    I totally agree it seems wildly unlikely, but the UK and France rather swiftly ended the enmity and became the firmest of friends, and even two or three times there was the prospect aired of union.
    I can think of a couple of reasons why the enmity between France and Britain ended.

    Firstly, Britain comprehensively won the Great Power contest between the two. Secondly, Russia, and then Germany, emerged as a common enemy.

    Israel have certainly proved their military pre-eminence against their neighbouring states, but not directly so against Iran. Perhaps you could argue that half of one part of the mix is there. Who is the common enemy? I don't see one.
    The EU?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    BBC news showing both joint Green leaders gave a speech at their conference at the same time, each speaking for a few minutes then handing over to the other.

    Perhaps Boris and May could do a similar job share?

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    They'll quit? Where would JRM, Boris, Davis etc go to?

    Oh, it means they want May to go?

    HaHaHaHaHa.

    Ha.
    You wouldn't totally rule out Boris setting up his own Party would you? ;)
    I did wonder a month or so back whether Boris might want to take over UKIP and mould (sp) it in his own image. I think Boris would be a very poor political leader, but he'd be better than any UKIP has had post-Farage.
    Twould be way too much like hard work for Boris. He is essentially a clever but lazy man who relies on being able to wing his way through life.
    I agree.

    Yet he yearns to be PM, and he has been around enough PMs to understand exactly how much hard work that role is. Just look at the effect it had on Blair.
    It is possible to be relatively lazy and lead a country, Reagan for example fell asleep in Cabinet meetings and spent much of his evenings watching soap operas and yet he won 2 landslide elections, the economy boomed on his watch and the Cold War neared its end and he polls as the best Republican President of the last half century.

    Lazy optimism is often better than hard working dourness in a leader (though you need some with the latter around them), contrast say Reagan to Gordon Brown
    It is easier to be a lazy president, who can't be replaced for four years or so, than to be a lazy prime minister, who could be replaced this week.

    A prime minister, is not just the opposite number of the president but also of the leaders in Congress and of the party machine.
    To an extent but leading a superpower is also a rather bigger job relatively than leading the UK. The US President literally has to set the global agenda with his decisions unlike the PM.

    The President is the equivalent of the Queen but also takes on the executive powers the Queen delegates to the PM
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    rcs1000 said:

    Omnium said:

    MaxPB said:

    Omnium said:

    MaxPB said:

    Omnium said:

    MaxPB said:

    Omnium said:

    MaxPB said:

    Omnium said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    Erdogan suggests a referendum on whether Turkey should continue to apply to join the EU

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1ME26K

    "continue to apply"? The man must be a xenophobic liar.
    Liar as in then haven't been a serious applicant for a while? I'm not sure I see Xenophobic in what he's said.

    On the face of it I'd think that a referendum was an ok idea on the subject. As I'm British though the whole referendum idea has to be discarded forever-more.

    Turkey has been treated a little bit poorly by the EU in my view. (Turkey applying for EU membership is nothing like a tiny country doing so).

    It'd be much better really if the countries of the middle east got together to just plain agree. A MEU of Turkey, Iran, Israel, and Egypt would have some clout.

    Err, right.
    Why not? Is Israel somehow different?

    These are the 4, and they can be outstanding together. They're not doing so well apart.
    Yes?
    No.
    Has your weekend release from the asylum started early or something?!
    Are you telling me you escaped?

    Hey no need to sweep up if you did.

    Abuse aside. These nations are clear potential allies. They're educated, sophisticated, and are their own masters. Whatever we might think, the people of these nations have been doing joined-up-thinking for far longer than we have.
    If you ignore a thousand years of enmity and mistrust and war, sure.

    The notion that Israel would go into an alliance with a country that wants to eliminate it from the map is absurd.
    Think about the UK and France.

    I totally agree it seems wildly unlikely, but the UK and France rather swiftly ended the enmity and became the firmest of friends, and even two or three times there was the prospect aired of union.
    I can think of a couple of reasons why the enmity between France and Britain ended.

    Firstly, Britain comprehensively won the Great Power contest between the two. Secondly, Russia, and then Germany, emerged as a common enemy.

    Israel have certainly proved their military pre-eminence against their neighbouring states, but not directly so against Iran. Perhaps you could argue that half of one part of the mix is there. Who is the common enemy? I don't see one.
    The EU?
    Surely you meant the EUSSR?
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    BBC news showing both joint Green leaders gave a speech at their conference at the same time, each speaking for a few minutes then handing over to the other.

    Perhaps Boris and May could do a similar job share?

    No - Boris v Anna Soubry. The two extreme ideologues
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935

    HYUFD said:

    BBC news showing both joint Green leaders gave a speech at their conference at the same time, each speaking for a few minutes then handing over to the other.

    Perhaps Boris and May could do a similar job share?

    No - Boris v Anna Soubry. The two extreme ideologues
    Well that really would get nothing done
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    BBC news showing both joint Green leaders gave a speech at their conference at the same time, each speaking for a few minutes then handing over to the other.

    Perhaps Boris and May could do a similar job share?

    No - Boris v Anna Soubry. The two extreme ideologues
    Well that really would get nothing done
    And Boris v May would
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,788
    Newsnight discussing Donald's Trump's penis right now! :open_mouth:

    Can you imagine Paxman's face? :D
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935

    The cabinet have finally cottoned on what I've been banging on for ages about.

    Universal Credit is about to screw an awful lot of voters.

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/1048316232804564992

    Not those who work more than 16 hours a week, they will no longer lose all their benefits
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    edited October 2018
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that neither of Maine's Senators are Democrats.

    Isn't there a whole libertarian, pioneer culture in that far north east corner of the USA (likewise in parts of Quebec, Nova Scotia etc). Lots of gun ownership. Individualism.
    New Hampshire is the 'live free or die' state, Quebec though is more social democratic
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    They'll quit? Where would JRM, Boris, Davis etc go to?

    Oh, it means they want May to go?

    HaHaHaHaHa.

    Ha.
    You wouldn't totally rule out Boris setting up his own Party would you? ;)
    I did wonder a month or so back whether Boris might want to take over UKIP and mould (sp) it in his own image. I think Boris would be a very poor political leader, but he'd be better than any UKIP has had post-Farage.
    Twould be way too much like hard work for Boris. He is essentially a clever but lazy man who relies on being able to wing his way through life.
    I agree.

    Yet he yearns to be PM, and he has been around enough PMs to understand exactly how much hard work that role is. Just look at the effect it had on Blair.
    It is possible to be relatively lazy and lead a country, Reagan for example fell asleep in Cabinet meetings and spent much of his evenings watching soap operas and yet he won 2 landslide elections, the economy boomed on his watch and the Cold War neared its end and he polls as the best Republican President of the last half century.

    Lazy optimism is often better than hard working dourness in a leader (though you need some with the latter around them), contrast say Reagan to Gordon Brown
    From what I've read Reagan was hard working and active as a politician.

    His fading performance during his Presidency came from his increasing age and the effects of being shot.
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    The cabinet have finally cottoned on what I've been banging on for ages about.

    Universal Credit is about to screw an awful lot of voters.

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/1048316232804564992

    There are apparently an awful lot of ways in which Universal Credit is ludicrously bad. For example, if you receive your monthly salary early in the month of December the system interprets that as your pay being doubled and stops your payments and terminates your claim. You then have to reapply, lose out on a month of payments and have to wait ages for your claim to be processed. The official advice is to save up money to allow for this absurdity, because the system can't possibly deal with you receiving a salary payment early.

    Similar things happen to people paid on a four-weekly basis rather than monthly. The system is unable to average out their earnings over the year, so people have to do without the help they are entitled to for one month every year.

    These things shouldn't have been hard to get right. There's no great ideological principle at stake.
    The whole point of Universal Credit is to try and break the benefit trap by forcing people to seek to earn more money whilst not being worse off by doing so. However even if the basis for the policy is theoretically sound, and even more so even if it were successful, it is a politically disastrous policy because nobody who benefits from it is going to give credit to the Government who forced them to seek (more) work.

    Incidentally the whole policy is logical with their approach to local government funding. Give them less money whilst (theoretically) giving them greater powers in how to use the money given to them. But when it is cut to the level where they only have the power to pay for basic/statutory services, the "freedom" to spend it as they wish is something of an illusion..
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    They'll quit? Where would JRM, Boris, Davis etc go to?

    Oh, it means they want May to go?

    HaHaHaHaHa.

    Ha.
    You wouldn't totally rule out Boris setting up his own Party would you? ;)
    I did wonder a month or so back whether Boris might want to take over UKIP and mould (sp) it in his own image. I think Boris would be a very poor political leader, but he'd be better than any UKIP has had post-Farage.
    Twould be way too much like hard work for Boris. He is essentially a clever but lazy man who relies on being able to wing his way through life.
    I agree.

    Yet he yearns to be PM, and he has been around enough PMs to understand exactly how much hard work that role is. Just look at the effect it had on Blair.
    It is possible to be relatively lazy and lead a country, Reagan for example fell asleep in Cabinet meetings and spent much of his evenings watching soap operas and yet he won 2 landslide elections, the economy boomed on his watch and the Cold War neared its end and he polls as the best Republican President of the last half century.

    Lazy optimism is often better than hard working dourness in a leader (though you need some with the latter around them), contrast say Reagan to Gordon Brown
    From what I've read Reagan was hard working and active as a politician.

    His fading performance during his Presidency came from his increasing age and the effects of being shot.
    Reagan projected a positive image to the nation and was a good speech maker but he was probably the laziest President in terms of the work he did since Calvin Coolidge
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited October 2018
    The US President has one firm engagement every year - the State of the Union address. Beyond that they can do as little, or as much, as they wish (subject to external events demanding it). Especially in their second term.

    Bit different from a UK Prime Minister.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,914

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    They'll quit? Where would JRM, Boris, Davis etc go to?

    Oh, it means they want May to go?

    HaHaHaHaHa.

    Ha.
    You wouldn't totally rule out Boris setting up his own Party would you? ;)
    I did wonder a month or so back whether Boris might want to take over UKIP and mould (sp) it in his own image. I think Boris would be a very poor political leader, but he'd be better than any UKIP has had post-Farage.
    Twould be way too much like hard work for Boris. He is essentially a clever but lazy man who relies on being able to wing his way through life.
    I agree.

    Yet he yearns to be PM, and he has been around enough PMs to understand exactly how much hard work that role is. Just look at the effect it had on Blair.
    It is possible to be relatively lazy and lead a country, Reagan for example fell asleep in Cabinet meetings and spent much of his evenings watching soap operas and yet he won 2 landslide elections, the economy boomed on his watch and the Cold War neared its end and he polls as the best Republican President of the last half century.

    Lazy optimism is often better than hard working dourness in a leader (though you need some with the latter around them), contrast say Reagan to Gordon Brown
    From what I've read Reagan was hard working and active as a politician.

    His fading performance during his Presidency came from his increasing age and the effects of being shot.
    Yes, that was my understanding too. As both Governor of California, and in the first four years if his Presidency he was a seriously engaged, active and switched on guy. The last couple of years, sadly not.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that neither of Maine's Senators are Democrats.

    Isn't there a whole libertarian, pioneer culture in that far north east corner of the USA (likewise in parts of Quebec, Nova Scotia etc). Lots of gun ownership. Individualism.
    New Hampshire is the 'live free or die' state, Quebec though is more social democratic
    Die Hard 4.0 is on E4 :)
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    alex. said:

    The US President has one firm engagement every year - the State of the Union address. Beyond that they can do as little, or as much, as they wish (subject to external events demanding it). Especially in their second term.

    Bit different from a UK Prime Minister.

    Tell that to Obama

    https://static.boredpanda.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/before-and-after-term-us-presidents-11-57a38d1da81e3__880.jpg
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that neither of Maine's Senators are Democrats.

    Isn't there a whole libertarian, pioneer culture in that far north east corner of the USA (likewise in parts of Quebec, Nova Scotia etc). Lots of gun ownership. Individualism.
    New Hampshire is the 'live free or die' state, Quebec though is more social democratic
    Quebec is complex, I think. I've only been to Montreal which is fairly liberal (tho surprisingly religious), but parts of Quebec are very right wing, as I understand it. A mix of pioneer spirit and French exceptionalism.
    The same can even be said of parts of rural Scotland, it is really a rural, urban divide
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that neither of Maine's Senators are Democrats.

    Isn't there a whole libertarian, pioneer culture in that far north east corner of the USA (likewise in parts of Quebec, Nova Scotia etc). Lots of gun ownership. Individualism.
    New Hampshire is the 'live free or die' state, Quebec though is more social democratic
    Die Hard 4.0 is on E4 :)
    Rowan Atkinson on Graham Norton with Jeff Goldblum, Jamie Lee Curtis and Gary Barlow
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,914
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that neither of Maine's Senators are Democrats.

    Isn't there a whole libertarian, pioneer culture in that far north east corner of the USA (likewise in parts of Quebec, Nova Scotia etc). Lots of gun ownership. Individualism.
    New Hampshire is the 'live free or die' state, Quebec though is more social democratic
    Quebec is complex, I think. I've only been to Montreal which is fairly liberal (tho surprisingly religious), but parts of Quebec are very right wing, as I understand it. A mix of pioneer spirit and French exceptionalism.
    I've spent a lot of time in Montreal, and like it very much. A pleasant and affordable city. And much less boring than Toronto.
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    HYUFD said:

    alex. said:

    The US President has one firm engagement every year - the State of the Union address. Beyond that they can do as little, or as much, as they wish (subject to external events demanding it). Especially in their second term.

    Bit different from a UK Prime Minister.

    Tell that to Obama

    https://static.boredpanda.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/before-and-after-term-us-presidents-11-57a38d1da81e3__880.jpg
    As little, or as much (subject to external events demanding it)...
  • Options
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that neither of Maine's Senators are Democrats.

    Isn't there a whole libertarian, pioneer culture in that far north east corner of the USA (likewise in parts of Quebec, Nova Scotia etc). Lots of gun ownership. Individualism.
    New Hampshire is the 'live free or die' state, Quebec though is more social democratic
    Quebec is complex, I think. I've only been to Montreal which is fairly liberal (tho surprisingly religious), but parts of Quebec are very right wing, as I understand it. A mix of pioneer spirit and French exceptionalism.
    We once went to Quebec on a coach tour from New York visiting Boston, Montreal, Toronto, Washington etc and back to New York

    We were an international group but many were Americans. We were all booked into a French restaurant in Quebec which would only converse in French. Fortunately my wife and I can speak a little French and were able to order our meals and drinks and were warmly welcomed.

    As for the Americans they refused point blank to even attempt to communicate with the staff and were promptly shown the door. It was really funny
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that neither of Maine's Senators are Democrats.

    Isn't there a whole libertarian, pioneer culture in that far north east corner of the USA (likewise in parts of Quebec, Nova Scotia etc). Lots of gun ownership. Individualism.
    New Hampshire is the 'live free or die' state, Quebec though is more social democratic
    Die Hard 4.0 is on E4 :)
    Rowan Atkinson on Graham Norton with Jeff Goldblum, Jamie Lee Curtis and Gary Barlow
    "Live Free or Die Hard" is the US title for Die Hard 4.0, which prompted my comment!
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    The cabinet have finally cottoned on what I've been banging on for ages about.

    Universal Credit is about to screw an awful lot of voters.

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/1048316232804564992

    There are apparently an awful lot of ways in which Universal Credit is ludicrously bad. For example, if you receive your monthly salary early in the month of December the system interprets that as your pay being doubled and stops your payments and terminates your claim. You then have to reapply, lose out on a month of payments and have to wait ages for your claim to be processed. The official advice is to save up money to allow for this absurdity, because the system can't possibly deal with you receiving a salary payment early.

    Similar things happen to people paid on a four-weekly basis rather than monthly. The system is unable to average out their earnings over the year, so people have to do without the help they are entitled to for one month every year.

    These things shouldn't have been hard to get right. There's no great ideological principle at stake.
    The migration from legacy benefits to Universal Credit for existing severely disabled children is an horrendous idea.
    They already hold the information required .So should just use that rather than insist they re apply.
    These parents have enough to contend with.
    When will the government see common sense or will they wait until the inevitable terrible outcrry from very vulnerable people.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that neither of Maine's Senators are Democrats.

    Isn't there a whole libertarian, pioneer culture in that far north east corner of the USA (likewise in parts of Quebec, Nova Scotia etc). Lots of gun ownership. Individualism.
    New Hampshire is the 'live free or die' state, Quebec though is more social democratic
    Quebec is complex, I think. I've only been to Montreal which is fairly liberal (tho surprisingly religious), but parts of Quebec are very right wing, as I understand it. A mix of pioneer spirit and French exceptionalism.
    I've spent a lot of time in Montreal, and like it very much. A pleasant and affordable city. And much less boring than Toronto.
    I quite liked Montreal. But no more than that. The winter climate is horrific and the Gallic chauvinism is fairly insufferable. Also everything is quite a bit shittier than Paris - their obvious comparison - in every way, and they know it, and feel it, and feel emasculated by it, so they over-compensate with weird boasting.

    I REALLY liked the ice wine, tho.

    I went to Paris last weekend. It's a dump.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    edited October 2018
    Yorkcity said:

    The cabinet have finally cottoned on what I've been banging on for ages about.

    Universal Credit is about to screw an awful lot of voters.

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/1048316232804564992

    There are apparently an awful lot of ways in which Universal Credit is ludicrously bad. For example, if you receive your monthly salary early in the month of December the system interprets that as your pay being doubled and stops your payments and terminates your claim. You then have to reapply, lose out on a month of payments and have to wait ages for your claim to be processed. The official advice is to save up money to allow for this absurdity, because the system can't possibly deal with you receiving a salary payment early.

    Similar things happen to people paid on a four-weekly basis rather than monthly. The system is unable to average out their earnings over the year, so people have to do without the help they are entitled to for one month every year.

    These things shouldn't have been hard to get right. There's no great ideological principle at
    When will the government see common sense or will they wait until the inevitable terrible outcrry from very vulnerable people.
    I think the answer to that is pretty obvious.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that neither of Maine's Senators are Democrats.

    Isn't there a whole libertarian, pioneer culture in that far north east corner of the USA (likewise in parts of Quebec, Nova Scotia etc). Lots of gun ownership. Individualism.
    New Hampshire is the 'live free or die' state, Quebec though is more social democratic
    Die Hard 4.0 is on E4 :)
    Rowan Atkinson on Graham Norton with Jeff Goldblum, Jamie Lee Curtis and Gary Barlow
    "Live Free or Die Hard" is the US title for Die Hard 4.0, which prompted my comment!
    OK, I see the connection now
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    edited October 2018

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that neither of Maine's Senators are Democrats.

    Isn't there a whole libertarian, pioneer culture in that far north east corner of the USA (likewise in parts of Quebec, Nova Scotia etc). Lots of gun ownership. Individualism.
    New Hampshire is the 'live free or die' state, Quebec though is more social democratic
    Quebec is complex, I think. I've only been to Montreal which is fairly liberal (tho surprisingly religious), but parts of Quebec are very right wing, as I understand it. A mix of pioneer spirit and French exceptionalism.
    We once went to Quebec on a coach tour from New York visiting Boston, Montreal, Toronto, Washington etc and back to New York

    We were an international group but many were Americans. We were all booked into a French restaurant in Quebec which would only converse in French. Fortunately my wife and I can speak a little French and were able to order our meals and drinks and were warmly welcomed.

    As for the Americans they refused point blank to even attempt to communicate with the staff and were promptly shown the door. It was really funny
    Quebec is basically a bit of France which has plonked itself in North America much to some Americans shock when they visit I imagine and obviously more Brits have visited France as a percentage than Americans
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,317
    Yorkcity said:

    The cabinet have finally cottoned on what I've been banging on for ages about.

    Universal Credit is about to screw an awful lot of voters.

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/1048316232804564992

    There are apparently an awful lot of ways in which Universal Credit is ludicrously bad. For example, if you receive your monthly salary early in the month of December the system interprets that as your pay being doubled and stops your payments and terminates your claim. You then have to reapply, lose out on a month of payments and have to wait ages for your claim to be processed. The official advice is to save up money to allow for this absurdity, because the system can't possibly deal with you receiving a salary payment early.

    Similar things happen to people paid on a four-weekly basis rather than monthly. The system is unable to average out their earnings over the year, so people have to do without the help they are entitled to for one month every year.

    These things shouldn't have been hard to get right. There's no great ideological principle at stake.
    The migration from legacy benefits to Universal Credit for existing severely disabled children is an horrendous idea.
    They already hold the information required .So should just use that rather than insist they re apply.
    These parents have enough to contend with.
    When will the government see common sense or will they wait until the inevitable terrible outcrry from very vulnerable people.
    The examples qiuoted here seem entirely insane, and led credence to the idea, which I've always assumed was a conspiracy theory, that the system is really designed to make it hard to apply.
  • Options
    Quebec of course had that really close referendum result in 1995, which I mentioned in my thread a couple of years ago.

    image
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that neither of Maine's Senators are Democrats.

    Isn't there a whole libertarian, pioneer culture in that far north east corner of the USA (likewise in parts of Quebec, Nova Scotia etc). Lots of gun ownership. Individualism.
    New Hampshire is the 'live free or die' state, Quebec though is more social democratic
    Quebec is complex, I think. I've only been to Montreal which is fairly liberal (tho surprisingly religious), but parts of Quebec are very right wing, as I understand it. A mix of pioneer spirit and French exceptionalism.
    We once went to Quebec on a coach tour from New York visiting Boston, Montreal, Toronto, Washington etc and back to New York

    We were an international group but many were Americans. We were all booked into a French restaurant in Quebec which would only converse in French. Fortunately my wife and I can speak a little French and were able to order our meals and drinks and were warmly welcomed.

    As for the Americans they refused point blank to even attempt to communicate with the staff and were promptly shown the door. It was really funny
    Quebec is basically a bit of France which has plonked itself in North America much to some Americans shock when they visit I imagine and obviously more Brits have visited France as a percentage than Americans
    Most Americans do not travel far. On our last cruise one American called her husband to come and look at all the ducks as we sailed along passing lots of seagulls. It was so funny at the time

    Another American commented why did they build Windsor Castle under the Heathrow flight path.

    Yes, honestly, I laughed for weeks on that one
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that neither of Maine's Senators are Democrats.

    Isn't there a whole libertarian, pioneer culture in that far north east corner of the USA (likewise in parts of Quebec, Nova Scotia etc). Lots of gun ownership. Individualism.
    New Hampshire is the 'live free or die' state, Quebec though is more social democratic
    Quebec is complex, I think. I've only been to Montreal which is fairly liberal (tho surprisingly religious), but parts of Quebec are very right wing, as I understand it. A mix of pioneer spirit and French exceptionalism.
    We once went to Quebec on a coach tour from New York visiting Boston, Montreal, Toronto, Washington etc and back to New York

    We were an international group but many were Americans. We were all booked into a French restaurant in Quebec which would only converse in French. Fortunately my wife and I can speak a little French and were able to order our meals and drinks and were warmly welcomed.

    As for the Americans they refused point blank to even attempt to communicate with the staff and were promptly shown the door. It was really funny
    Quebec is basically a bit of France which has plonked itself in North America much to some Americans shock when they visit I imagine and obviously more Brits have visited France as a percentage than Americans
    Most Americans do not travel far. On our last cruise one American called her husband to come and look at all the ducks as we sailed along passing lots of seagulls. It was so funny at the time

    Another American commented why did they build Windsor Castle under the Heathrow flight path.

    Yes, honestly, I laughed for weeks on that one
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,914
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that neither of Maine's Senators are Democrats.

    Isn't there a whole libertarian, pioneer culture in that far north east corner of the USA (likewise in parts of Quebec, Nova Scotia etc). Lots of gun ownership. Individualism.
    New Hampshire is the 'live free or die' state, Quebec though is more social democratic
    Quebec is complex, I think. I've only been to Montreal which is fairly liberal (tho surprisingly religious), but parts of Quebec are very right wing, as I understand it. A mix of pioneer spirit and French exceptionalism.
    I've spent a lot of time in Montreal, and like it very much. A pleasant and affordable city. And much less boring than Toronto.
    I quite liked Montreal. But no more than that. The winter climate is horrific and the Gallic chauvinism is fairly insufferable. Also everything is quite a bit shittier than Paris - their obvious comparison - in every way, and they know it, and feel it, and feel emasculated by it, so they over-compensate with weird boasting.

    I REALLY liked the ice wine, tho.

    I've avoided it (mostly) in winter. They have some excellent outdoor concerts in summer, with everyone chilling out, drinking on the streets and having a good time. They don't do the "bed at 9pm" thing like some parts of North America.
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that neither of Maine's Senators are Democrats.

    Isn't there a whole libertarian, pioneer culture in that far north east corner of the USA (likewise in parts of Quebec, Nova Scotia etc). Lots of gun ownership. Individualism.
    New Hampshire is the 'live free or die' state, Quebec though is more social democratic
    Quebec is complex, I think. I've only been to Montreal which is fairly liberal (tho surprisingly religious), but parts of Quebec are very right wing, as I understand it. A mix of pioneer spirit and French exceptionalism.
    We once went to Quebec on a coach tour from New York visiting Boston, Montreal, Toronto, Washington etc and back to New York

    We were an international group but many were Americans. We were all booked into a French restaurant in Quebec which would only converse in French. Fortunately my wife and I can speak a little French and were able to order our meals and drinks and were warmly welcomed.

    As for the Americans they refused point blank to even attempt to communicate with the staff and were promptly shown the door. It was really funny
    Quebec is basically a bit of France which has plonked itself in North America much to some Americans shock when they visit I imagine and obviously more Brits have visited France as a percentage than Americans
    Most Americans do not travel far. On our last cruise one American called her husband to come and look at all the ducks as we sailed along passing lots of seagulls. It was so funny at the time

    Another American commented why did they build Windsor Castle under the Heathrow flight path.

    Yes, honestly, I laughed for weeks on that one
    * Sorry for double post
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,914
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that neither of Maine's Senators are Democrats.

    Isn't there a whole libertarian, pioneer culture in that far north east corner of the USA (likewise in parts of Quebec, Nova Scotia etc). Lots of gun ownership. Individualism.
    New Hampshire is the 'live free or die' state, Quebec though is more social democratic
    Quebec is complex, I think. I've only been to Montreal which is fairly liberal (tho surprisingly religious), but parts of Quebec are very right wing, as I understand it. A mix of pioneer spirit and French exceptionalism.
    The same can even be said of parts of rural Scotland, it is really a rural, urban divide
    Yes, the same division can be seen, in different ways, across the West. White flight is one explanation. White people who want to live alongside white people (a universal human trait: to live amongst your own) move out of big multiculti cities, meaning the cities become more leftwing and multiculti and the outlying suburbs and countryside become more rightwing and anti-migrant.

    And yet some crazy people want to live in mixed areas like Camden Primrose Hill.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,999
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that neither of Maine's Senators are Democrats.

    Isn't there a whole libertarian, pioneer culture in that far north east corner of the USA (likewise in parts of Quebec, Nova Scotia etc). Lots of gun ownership. Individualism.
    New Hampshire is the 'live free or die' state, Quebec though is more social democratic
    Quebec is complex, I think. I've only been to Montreal which is fairly liberal (tho surprisingly religious), but parts of Quebec are very right wing, as I understand it. A mix of pioneer spirit and French exceptionalism.
    We once went to Quebec on a coach tour from New York visiting Boston, Montreal, Toronto, Washington etc and back to New York

    We were an international group but many were Americans. We were all booked into a French restaurant in Quebec which would only converse in French. Fortunately my wife and I can speak a little French and were able to order our meals and drinks and were warmly welcomed.

    As for the Americans they refused point blank to even attempt to communicate with the staff and were promptly shown the door. It was really funny
    Quebec is basically a bit of France which has plonked itself in North America much to some Americans shock when they visit I imagine and obviously more Brits have visited France as a percentage than Americans
    I'm in Montreal right now - seemingly a high density of cathedrals and gyms.

    The French bit of North America used to be very big of course:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_France
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    alex. said:

    The US President has one firm engagement every year - the State of the Union address. Beyond that they can do as little, or as much, as they wish (subject to external events demanding it). Especially in their second term.

    Bit different from a UK Prime Minister.

    They also often *can't* do all that much in terms of new initiatives when the other party controls Congress - at least, in terms of domestic politics.
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that neither of Maine's Senators are Democrats.

    Isn't there a whole libertarian, pioneer culture in that far north east corner of the USA (likewise in parts of Quebec, Nova Scotia etc). Lots of gun ownership. Individualism.
    New Hampshire is the 'live free or die' state, Quebec though is more social democratic
    Quebec is complex, I think. I've only been to Montreal which is fairly liberal (tho surprisingly religious), but parts of Quebec are very right wing, as I understand it. A mix of pioneer spirit and French exceptionalism.
    We once went to Quebec on a coach tour from New York visiting Boston, Montreal, Toronto, Washington etc and back to New York

    We were an international group but many were Americans. We were all booked into a French restaurant in Quebec which would only converse in French. Fortunately my wife and I can speak a little French and were able to order our meals and drinks and were warmly welcomed.

    As for the Americans they refused point blank to even attempt to communicate with the staff and were promptly shown the door. It was really funny
    Quebec is basically a bit of France which has plonked itself in North America much to some Americans shock when they visit I imagine and obviously more Brits have visited France as a percentage than Americans
    I'm in Montreal right now - seemingly a high density of cathedrals and gyms.

    The French bit of North America used to be very big of course:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_France
    You have not fled the Country have you William. Come back soon
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    Quebec of course had that really close referendum result in 1995, which I mentioned in my thread a couple of years ago.

    image

    Worth mentioning Maastricht/France 1992. Yes won, 50.8 to 49.2. Therein perhaps lies an alternate history for Europe.
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that neither of Maine's Senators are Democrats.

    Isn't there a whole libertarian, pioneer culture in that far north east corner of the USA (likewise in parts of Quebec, Nova Scotia etc). Lots of gun ownership. Individualism.
    New Hampshire is the 'live free or die' state, Quebec though is more social democratic
    Quebec is complex, I think. I've only been to Montreal which is fairly liberal (tho surprisingly religious), but parts of Quebec are very right wing, as I understand it. A mix of pioneer spirit and French exceptionalism.
    We once went to Quebec on a coach tour from New York visiting Boston, Montreal, Toronto, Washington etc and back to New York

    We were an international group but many were Americans. We were all booked into a French restaurant in Quebec which would only converse in French. Fortunately my wife and I can speak a little French and were able to order our meals and drinks and were warmly welcomed.

    As for the Americans they refused point blank to even attempt to communicate with the staff and were promptly shown the door. It was really funny
    Quebec is basically a bit of France which has plonked itself in North America much to some Americans shock when they visit I imagine and obviously more Brits have visited France as a percentage than Americans
    Most Americans do not travel far. On our last cruise one American called her husband to come and look at all the ducks as we sailed along passing lots of seagulls. It was so funny at the time
    When I was really young, I used to call seagulls "seagull-ducks"!
  • Options
    Battery gone

    Time to bid everyone a pleasant nights rest

    Good night folks
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    SeanT said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that neither of Maine's Senators are Democrats.

    Isn't there a whole libertarian, pioneer culture in that far north east corner of the USA (likewise in parts of Quebec, Nova Scotia etc). Lots of gun ownership. Individualism.
    New Hampshire is the 'live free or die' state, Quebec though is more social democratic
    Quebec is complex, I think. I've only been to Montreal which is fairly liberal (tho surprisingly religious), but parts of Quebec are very right wing, as I understand it. A mix of pioneer spirit and French exceptionalism.
    I've spent a lot of time in Montreal, and like it very much. A pleasant and affordable city. And much less boring than Toronto.
    I quite liked Montreal. But no more than that. The winter climate is horrific and the Gallic chauvinism is fairly insufferable. Also everything is quite a bit shittier than Paris - their obvious comparison - in every way, and they know it, and feel it, and feel emasculated by it, so they over-compensate with weird boasting.

    I REALLY liked the ice wine, tho.

    I went to Paris last weekend. It's a dump.
    I don't think it's a dump but it is certainly not the peerless city it was. Racial tension everywhere. A lot of graffiti, crime and squalor. But it still has great innate beauty.

    The banlieues can be horrific. Ever been to Saint Denis??? It's like a much more violent version of Cairo, with an amazing Gothic cathedral at the centre. Weird.
    And the national stadium. I went there to see a rugby match in 2007 and was taken aback a little.

    (I know Brent isn't much to write home about either but it's easier to get to Wembley and back again without seeing the surrounding area).
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,567
    A Banksy painting has “self-destructed” on the auction podium at Sotheby’s in London after being sold for over £1m, in one of the most audacious art pranks thought to have been carried out by the street artist.

    https://www.ft.com/content/1c748f2e-c8ea-11e8-ba8f-ee390057b8c9


  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,955
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that neither of Maine's Senators are Democrats.

    Isn't there a whole libertarian, pioneer culture in that far north east corner of the USA (likewise in parts of Quebec, Nova Scotia etc). Lots of gun ownership. Individualism.
    New Hampshire is the 'live free or die' state, Quebec though is more social democratic
    Quebec is complex, I think. I've only been to Montreal which is fairly liberal (tho surprisingly religious), but parts of Quebec are very right wing, as I understand it. A mix of pioneer spirit and French exceptionalism.
    We once went to Quebec on a coach tour from New York visiting Boston, Montreal, Toronto, Washington etc and back to New York

    We were an international group but many were Americans. We were all booked into a French restaurant in Quebec which would only converse in French. Fortunately my wife and I can speak a little French and were able to order our meals and drinks and were warmly welcomed.

    As for the Americans they refused point blank to even attempt to communicate with the staff and were promptly shown the door. It was really funny
    Quebec is basically a bit of France which has plonked itself in North America much to some Americans shock when they visit I imagine and obviously more Brits have visited France as a percentage than Americans
    I'm in Montreal right now - seemingly a high density of cathedrals and gyms.

    The French bit of North America used to be very big of course:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_France
    The Louisiana Purchase was one of the greatest unforced errors in geopolitical history. Akin to the German declaration of war on America, or the sale of Alaska by Russia, or Britain joining World War One for no reason, or maybe Brex - no, only joking.
    The US did pay an eye-watering $15mn for it, equivalent to half a trillion dollars today.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that neither of Maine's Senators are Democrats.

    Isn't there a whole libertarian, pioneer culture in that far north east corner of the USA (likewise in parts of Quebec, Nova Scotia etc). Lots of gun ownership. Individualism.
    New Hampshire is the 'live free or die' state, Quebec though is more social democratic
    Quebec is complex, I think. I've only been to Montreal which is fairly liberal (tho surprisingly religious), but parts of Quebec are very right wing, as I understand it. A mix of pioneer spirit and French exceptionalism.
    The same can even be said of parts of rural Scotland, it is really a rural, urban divide
    Yes, the same division can be seen, in different ways, across the West. White flight is one explanation. White people who want to live alongside white people (a universal human trait: to live amongst your own) move out of big multiculti cities, meaning the cities become more leftwing and multiculti and the outlying suburbs and countryside become more rightwing and anti-migrant.

    Indeed, Brexit, Trump, Le Pen all got their highest votes in rural and ex industrial areas, the cities were all Remain, Hillary, Macron voters.

    Corbyn also has very little support in rural Britain
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    SeanT said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that neither of Maine's Senators are Democrats.

    Isn't there a whole libertarian, pioneer culture in that far north east corner of the USA (likewise in parts of Quebec, Nova Scotia etc). Lots of gun ownership. Individualism.
    New Hampshire is the 'live free or die' state, Quebec though is more social democratic
    Quebec is complex, I think. I've only been to Montreal which is fairly liberal (tho surprisingly religious), but parts of Quebec are very right wing, as I understand it. A mix of pioneer spirit and French exceptionalism.
    I've spent a lot of time in Montreal, and like it very much. A pleasant and affordable city. And much less boring than Toronto.
    I quite liked Montreal. But no more than that. The winter climate is horrific and the Gallic chauvinism is fairly insufferable. Also everything is quite a bit shittier than Paris - their obvious comparison - in every way, and they know it, and feel it, and feel emasculated by it, so they over-compensate with weird boasting.

    I REALLY liked the ice wine, tho.

    I went to Paris last weekend. It's a dump.
    I don't think it's a dump but it is certainly not the peerless city it was. Racial tension everywhere. A lot of graffiti, crime and squalor. But it still has great innate beauty.

    The banlieues can be horrific. Ever been to Saint Denis??? It's like a much more violent version of Cairo, with an amazing Gothic cathedral at the centre. Weird.
    I found it to be a cesspit. My wife(!) was pretty shocked when some woman took a dump in a side street. I expect that in India. Not Paris.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that neither of Maine's Senators are Democrats.

    Isn't there a whole libertarian, pioneer culture in that far north east corner of the USA (likewise in parts of Quebec, Nova Scotia etc). Lots of gun ownership. Individualism.
    New Hampshire is the 'live free or die' state, Quebec though is more social democratic
    Quebec is complex, I think. I've only been to Montreal which is fairly liberal (tho surprisingly religious), but parts of Quebec are very right wing, as I understand it. A mix of pioneer spirit and French exceptionalism.
    We once went to Quebec on a coach tour from New York visiting Boston, Montreal, Toronto, Washington etc and back to New York

    We were an international group but many were Americans. We were all booked into a French restaurant in Quebec which would only converse in French. Fortunately my wife and I can speak a little French and were able to order our meals and drinks and were warmly welcomed.

    As for the Americans they refused point blank to even attempt to communicate with the staff and were promptly shown the door. It was really funny
    Quebec is basically a bit of France which has plonked itself in North America much to some Americans shock when they visit I imagine and obviously more Brits have visited France as a percentage than Americans
    I'm in Montreal right now - seemingly a high density of cathedrals and gyms.

    The French bit of North America used to be very big of course:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_France
    Certainly before the 7 years war.

    Perhaps Quebec could join the EU and the UK could join NAFTA and we would all be happy?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    SeanT said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that neither of Maine's Senators are Democrats.

    Isn't there a whole libertarian, pioneer culture in that far north east corner of the USA (likewise in parts of Quebec, Nova Scotia etc). Lots of gun ownership. Individualism.
    New Hampshire is the 'live free or die' state, Quebec though is more social democratic
    Quebec is complex, I think. I've only been to Montreal which is fairly liberal (tho surprisingly religious), but parts of Quebec are very right wing, as I understand it. A mix of pioneer spirit and French exceptionalism.
    I've spent a lot of time in Montreal, and like it very much. A pleasant and affordable city. And much less boring than Toronto.
    I quite liked Montreal. But no more than that. The winter climate is horrific and the Gallic chauvinism is fairly insufferable. Also everything is quite a bit shittier than Paris - their obvious comparison - in every way, and they know it, and feel it, and feel emasculated by it, so they over-compensate with weird boasting.

    I REALLY liked the ice wine, tho.

    I went to Paris last weekend. It's a dump.
    I don't think it's a dump but it is certainly not the peerless city it was. Racial tension everywhere. A lot of graffiti, crime and squalor. But it still has great innate beauty.

    The banlieues can be horrific. Ever been to Saint Denis??? It's like a much more violent version of Cairo, with an amazing Gothic cathedral at the centre. Weird.
    I found it to be a cesspit. My wife(!) was pretty shocked when some woman took a dump in a side street. I expect that in India. Not Paris.
    Seriously? You saw that? Bloody nora.
    Yup, pretty grim. It's not like it was late either.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,955
    SeanT said:

    RobD said:


    The US did pay an eye-watering $15mn for it, equivalent to half a trillion dollars today.

    But a massive bargain, in retrospect. Also it meant America could fulfil its manifest destiny, and take the best bits of the entire continent, NYC to LA, thus ensuring it became the global hegemon and overt superpower, once the British Empire declined (as all empires do, including America now)

    That meant the English language and English culture (in so many ways) very swiftly crushed French as a global language and culture, forever. And so it continues. There is no way back for France.

    The French should have asked for ten trillion dollars. They were on the verge of becoming the dominant world culture and language. Napoleon blew it.
    Quite, although Napoleon was going to use the money to finance an invasion of Britain. Had that succeeded it might have been worth it!
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SeanT said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that neither of Maine's Senators are Democrats.

    Isn't there a whole libertarian, pioneer culture in that far north east corner of the USA (likewise in parts of Quebec, Nova Scotia etc). Lots of gun ownership. Individualism.
    New Hampshire is the 'live free or die' state, Quebec though is more social democratic
    Quebec is complex, I think. I've only been to Montreal which is fairly liberal (tho surprisingly religious), but parts of Quebec are very right wing, as I understand it. A mix of pioneer spirit and French exceptionalism.
    I've spent a lot of time in Montreal, and like it very much. A pleasant and affordable city. And much less boring than Toronto.
    I quite liked Montreal. But no more than that. The winter climate is horrific and the Gallic chauvinism is fairly insufferable. Also everything is quite a bit shittier than Paris - their obvious comparison - in every way, and they know it, and feel it, and feel emasculated by it, so they over-compensate with weird boasting.

    I REALLY liked the ice wine, tho.

    I went to Paris last weekend. It's a dump.
    I don't think it's a dump but it is certainly not the peerless city it was. Racial tension everywhere. A lot of graffiti, crime and squalor. But it still has great innate beauty.

    The banlieues can be horrific. Ever been to Saint Denis??? It's like a much more violent version of Cairo, with an amazing Gothic cathedral at the centre. Weird.
    I found it to be a cesspit. My wife(!) was pretty shocked when some woman took a dump in a side street. I expect that in India. Not Paris.
    Seriously? You saw that? Bloody nora.

    PS it's stuff like this that makes me think a significant western European country will see a far right, overtly racist government within the next 10-20 years.

    If I had to put money on it, I'd go for Sweden or Denmark.
    I wouldn't rule out France itself. Le Pen got 35% last year after all.
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Yorkcity said:

    The cabinet have finally cottoned on what I've been banging on for ages about.

    Universal Credit is about to screw an awful lot of voters.

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/1048316232804564992

    There are apparently an awful lot of ways in which Universal Credit is ludicrously bad. For example, if you receive your monthly salary early in the month of December the system interprets that as your pay being doubled and stops your payments and terminates your claim. You then have to reapply, lose out on a month of payments and have to wait ages for your claim to be processed. The official advice is to save up money to allow for this absurdity, because the system can't possibly deal with you receiving a salary payment early.

    Similar things happen to people paid on a four-weekly basis rather than monthly. The system is unable to average out their earnings over the year, so people have to do without the help they are entitled to for one month every year.

    These things shouldn't have been hard to get right. There's no great ideological principle at stake.
    The migration from legacy benefits to Universal Credit for existing severely disabled children is an horrendous idea.
    They already hold the information required .So should just use that rather than insist they re apply.
    These parents have enough to contend with.
    When will the government see common sense or will they wait until the inevitable terrible outcrry from very vulnerable people.
    The examples qiuoted here seem entirely insane, and led credence to the idea, which I've always assumed was a conspiracy theory, that the system is really designed to make it hard to apply.
    I work in IT consulting these days and, fortunately/unfortunately, it's easy to see how a lot of these could be a consequence of incompetence in the IT design.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that neither of Maine's Senators are Democrats.

    Isn't there a whole libertarian, pioneer culture in that far north east corner of the USA (likewise in parts of Quebec, Nova Scotia etc). Lots of gun ownership. Individualism.
    New Hampshire is the 'live free or die' state, Quebec though is more social democratic
    Quebec is complex, I think. I've only been to Montreal which is fairly liberal (tho surprisingly religious), but parts of Quebec are very right wing, as I understand it. A mix of pioneer spirit and French exceptionalism.
    We once went to Quebec on a coach tour from New York visiting Boston, Montreal, Toronto, Washington etc and back to New York

    We were an international group but many were Americans. We were all booked into a French restaurant in Quebec which would only converse in French. Fortunately my wife and I can speak a little French and were able to order our meals and drinks and were warmly welcomed.

    As for the Americans they refused point blank to even attempt to communicate with the staff and were promptly shown the door. It was really funny
    Quebec is basically a bit of France which has plonked itself in North America much to some Americans shock when they visit I imagine and obviously more Brits have visited France as a percentage than Americans
    Most Americans do not travel far. On our last cruise one American called her husband to come and look at all the ducks as we sailed along passing lots of seagulls. It was so funny at the time

    Another American commented why did they build Windsor Castle under the Heathrow flight path.

    Yes, honestly, I laughed for weeks on that one
    True but to be fair the USA is basically a continent in itself and most Brits do not travel often beyond Europe
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2018
    Trump's approval rating is back at 44% with registered voters. He won with 46% in 2016.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,816

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that neither of Maine's Senators are Democrats.

    Isn't there a whole libertarian, pioneer culture in that far north east corner of the USA (likewise in parts of Quebec, Nova Scotia etc). Lots of gun ownership. Individualism.
    New Hampshire is the 'live free or die' state, Quebec though is more social democratic
    Die Hard 4.0 is on E4 :)
    ITS CHRISTMAASSS
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    They'll quit? Where would JRM, Boris, Davis etc go to?

    Oh, it means they want May to go?

    HaHaHaHaHa.

    Ha.
    You wouldn't totally rule out Boris setting up his own Party would you? ;)
    I did wonder a month or so back whether Boris might want to take over UKIP and mould (sp) it in his own image. I think Boris would be a very poor political leader, but he'd be better than any UKIP has had post-Farage.
    Twould be way too much like hard work for Boris. He is essentially a clever but lazy man who relies on being able to wing his way through life.
    I agree.

    Yet he yearns to be PM, and he has been around enough PMs to understand exactly how much hard work that role is. Just look at the effect it had on Blair.
    It is possible to be relatively lazy and lead a country, Reagan for example fell asleep in Cabinet meetings and spent much of his evenings watching soap operas and yet he won 2 landslide elections, the economy boomed on his watch and the Cold War neared its end and he polls as the best Republican President of the last half century.

    Lazy optimism is often better than hard working dourness in a leader (though you need some with the latter around them), contrast say Reagan to Gordon Brown
    It is easier to be a lazy president, who can't be replaced for four years or so, than to be a lazy prime minister, who could be replaced this week.

    A prime minister, is not just the opposite number of the president but also of the leaders in Congress and of the party machine.
    To an extent but leading a superpower is also a rather bigger job relatively than leading the UK. The US President literally has to set the global agenda with his decisions unlike the PM.

    The President is the equivalent of the Queen but also takes on the executive powers the Queen delegates to the PM
    The US president doing his job properly sets a global agenda. This one just creates global consequences.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that neither of Maine's Senators are Democrats.

    Isn't there a whole libertarian, pioneer culture in that far north east corner of the USA (likewise in parts of Quebec, Nova Scotia etc). Lots of gun ownership. Individualism.
    New Hampshire is the 'live free or die' state, Quebec though is more social democratic
    Quebec is complex, I think. I've only been to Montreal which is fairly liberal (tho surprisingly religious), but parts of Quebec are very right wing, as I understand it. A mix of pioneer spirit and French exceptionalism.
    We once went to Quebec on a coach tour from New York visiting Boston, Montreal, Toronto, Washington etc and back to New York

    We were an international group but many were Americans. We were all booked into a French restaurant in Quebec which would only converse in French. Fortunately my wife and I can speak a little French and were able to order our meals and drinks and were warmly welcomed.

    As for the Americans they refused point blank to even attempt to communicate with the staff and were promptly shown the door. It was really funny
    Quebec is basically a bit of France which has plonked itself in North America much to some Americans shock when they visit I imagine and obviously more Brits have visited France as a percentage than Americans
    I'm in Montreal right now - seemingly a high density of cathedrals and gyms.

    The French bit of North America used to be very big of course:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_France
    The Louisiana Purchase was one of the greatest unforced errors in geopolitical history. Akin to the German declaration of war on America, or the sale of Alaska by Russia, or Britain joining World War One for no reason, or maybe Brex - no, only joking.
    Alaska was indefensible and vulnerable to British attack. Selling it to America - with whom Britain came close to war during the 1860s - made a lot of sense.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    edited October 2018
    AndyJS said:

    Trump's approval rating is back at 44% with registered voters. He won with 46% in 2016.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/

    Had he got 44% rather than 46% in 2016, Trump would have lost Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida, all of which he won by less than 2% and Hillary would have won the Electoral College and the Presidency
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    edited October 2018
    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that neither of Maine's Senators are Democrats.

    Isn't there a whole libertarian, pioneer culture in that far north east corner of the USA (likewise in parts of Quebec, Nova Scotia etc). Lots of gun ownership. Individualism.
    New Hampshire is the 'live free or die' state, Quebec though is more social democratic
    Quebec is complex, I think. I've only been to Montreal which is fairly liberal (tho surprisingly religious), but parts of Quebec are very right wing, as I understand it. A mix of pioneer spirit and French exceptionalism.
    I've spent a lot of time in Montreal, and like it very much. A pleasant and affordable city. And much less boring than Toronto.

    I REALLY liked the ice wine, tho.

    I went to Paris last weekend. It's a dump.
    I don't think it's a dump but it is certainly not the peerless city it was. Racial tension everywhere. A lot of graffiti, crime and squalor. But it still has great innate beauty.

    The banlieues can be horrific. Ever been to Saint Denis??? It's like a much more violent version of Cairo, with an amazing Gothic cathedral at the centre. Weird.
    I found it to be a cesspit. My wife(!) was pretty shocked when some woman took a dump in a side street. I expect that in India. Not Paris.
    Seriously? You saw that? Bloody nora.

    PS it's stuff like this that makes me think a significant western European country will see a far right, overtly racist government within the next 10-20 years.

    If I had to put money on it, I'd go for Sweden or Denmark.
    I wouldn't rule out France itself. Le Pen got 35% last year after all.
    C'est vrait. But I don't think the French have the sensibility to do it. They will dilly-dally, but eventually go for the more "boring" option. Their self-perception as a liberal country is too strong - for now.

    Scandinavia is the more volatile place. And they have much more racial tension (I have recently witnessed it), plus they are not ex-imperial powers (so they feel no guilt) and their recent influx of mainly Muslim migrants has been so huge and unprecedented. There will be a backlash.

    The most likely western European nation to fall to rightwing, anti immigration populists is of course Italy where Salvini's Lega Nord now lead most polls
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