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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The end of the court of Sessions?

SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited October 7 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The end of the court of Sessions?

Paddy Power have a market up which is one of my favourite types of market, will X be in their job or not by a certain.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,907
    1
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,654
    Was this just written so you could have that title?
  • kle4 said:

    Was this just written so you could have that title?

    Officially no.

    My thread writing approach is to follow this process

    1) Have a punt, write a thread about it

    2) Have a pun, write a thread about it
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,256
    edited October 7
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,256
    image

    ?
  • I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,654

    I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.

    He can still expect it, even if he is wrong in that expectation.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,256

    I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.

    The polling is so accurate that a change of 0.8% can be relied on?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 12,382

    I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.

    Will the rate of decline stay steady, or indeed in one direction? It's not like there's nothing been happening in US politics & public life..
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,214
    "Germany, Civey poll:

    CDU/CSU-EPP: 26% (-1)
    AfD-EFDD: 17%
    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 17% (+1)
    SPD-S&D: 16% (-1)
    LINKE-LEFT: 10%
    FDP-ALDE: 9%

    Field work: 30/09/18 – 7/10/18
    Sample size: 11,895"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,654
    Oh yeah, because they totally were thinking of supporting a bad deal if the PM were not pitching for Labour MPs to back it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,654
    AndyJS said:

    "Germany, Civey poll:

    CDU/CSU-EPP: 26% (-1)
    AfD-EFDD: 17%
    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 17% (+1)
    SPD-S&D: 16% (-1)
    LINKE-LEFT: 10%
    FDP-ALDE: 9%

    Field work: 30/09/18 – 7/10/18
    Sample size: 11,895"

    Not that it looks like a new election would help them much, but is there a point where the SPD consider that it really is not worth thing staying as they are if it means total destruction for them?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,214
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Germany, Civey poll:

    CDU/CSU-EPP: 26% (-1)
    AfD-EFDD: 17%
    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 17% (+1)
    SPD-S&D: 16% (-1)
    LINKE-LEFT: 10%
    FDP-ALDE: 9%

    Field work: 30/09/18 – 7/10/18
    Sample size: 11,895"

    Not that it looks like a new election would help them much, but is there a point where the SPD consider that it really is not worth thing staying as they are if it means total destruction for them?
    One would have thought the time for pulling out is about now. I'm not sure what their long-term strategy is.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,127
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,420

    I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.

    Ummm: you know that last week's move in the polls has no impact on this week's move. Outside of primaries, there is no such think as "momentum". So, while the congressional lead might move 2% towards the Republicans in the next four weeks, it is equally (statistically) likely to move the other way.

    I think a better argument is that the Kavanaugh hearings have fired up the Republican base, and made them much more likely to turn out.

    For the record 538 makes it a 75% chance the Dems take the House (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/), which sounds about right given how gerrymandered it is.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 7,647
    rcs1000 said:

    I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.

    Ummm: you know that last week's move in the polls has no impact on this week's move. Outside of primaries, there is no such think as "momentum". So, while the congressional lead might move 2% towards the Republicans in the next four weeks, it is equally (statistically) likely to move the other way.

    I think a better argument is that the Kavanaugh hearings have fired up the Republican base, and made them much more likely to turn out.

    For the record 538 makes it a 75% chance the Dems take the House (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/), which sounds about right given how gerrymandered it is.
    I think it too early to conclude one way or the other for now; it will become clear soon.

    What’s pretty certain is that the faux bipartisanship, where the Republicans bank their gains and then say ‘let’s all play by the rules’, is dead.

    As is respect for the Supreme Court as an independent institution.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/10/supreme-court-loses-its-special-status/572416/
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,506
    edited October 7
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.

    Ummm: you know that last week's move in the polls has no impact on this week's move. Outside of primaries, there is no such think as "momentum". So, while the congressional lead might move 2% towards the Republicans in the next four weeks, it is equally (statistically) likely to move the other way.

    I think a better argument is that the Kavanaugh hearings have fired up the Republican base, and made them much more likely to turn out.

    For the record 538 makes it a 75% chance the Dems take the House (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/), which sounds about right given how gerrymandered it is.
    I think it too early to conclude one way or the other for now; it will become clear soon.

    What’s pretty certain is that the faux bipartisanship, where the Republicans bank their gains and then say ‘let’s all play by the rules’, is dead.

    As is respect for the Supreme Court as an independent institution.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/10/supreme-court-loses-its-special-status/572416/
    This whole saga has highlighted the flaws of the US system. A country with a healthy democracy is not one in which the judiciary is tarnished by party politics. And their court now has two justices who have faced allegations of sexual harassment and sexual assault on the bench. What a mess.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 7,647
    More disturbing WTF stories:

    Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

    'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 1,797
    Far be it from me to try and predict anything Donald Trump will do, but he's been moaning about Sessions for months. I'm not convinced the value is in him firing him in the next 3 months, as opposed to 3 months after or 3 years after that.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 686
    Quincel said:

    Far be it from me to try and predict anything Donald Trump will do, but he's been moaning about Sessions for months. I'm not convinced the value is in him firing him in the next 3 months, as opposed to 3 months after or 3 years after that.

    If the GOP do badly in the mid terms I would expect Trump to fire him to move the news agenda on to something where Trump is in control again.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,102

    I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.

    The YouGov model is far better than any hypothetical forecast of national percentage lead which takes no account of swing districts, on that model the Democrats will gain almost 30 seats from the 195 they hold currently. Indeed even with an estimated 7.3% lead the YouGov model taken in swing districts has the Democrats taking a majority in the House 222 to 213 for the Republicans.

    https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/08/19/cbs-news-yougov-house-model-democrats-222-republic

    The question is more whether the GOP can keep the Senate now, especially after the Senate confirmed Kavanaugh which may drive up female Democratic turnout, than whether the Dems will take the House.

  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,957

    Quincel said:

    Far be it from me to try and predict anything Donald Trump will do, but he's been moaning about Sessions for months. I'm not convinced the value is in him firing him in the next 3 months, as opposed to 3 months after or 3 years after that.

    If the GOP do badly in the mid terms I would expect Trump to fire him to move the news agenda on to something where Trump is in control again.
    Depends how badly. If they lost the Senate then a Democrat majority could block any replacement nominee.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 236
    Brazil Presidential 1st round

    Evening all and trust you're all well!

    From CNBC:

    "Polls open at 8 a.m. (1100 GMT) and close at 5 p.m. in all but the far western portions of Brazil. Exit polls should be broadcast at 7 p.m. and results will start flowing shortly after that because Brazil uses an electronic voting system.

    The 147 million voters will choose the president, all 513 members of the lower house of Congress, two-thirds of the 81-member Senate plus governors and lawmakers in all 27 states."

    TV:

    https://www.redetv.uol.com.br/aovivo/

    Official results:

    http://divulga.tse.jus.br/index.html

    Betfair:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.143383495

    The second round (likely Bolsonaro/Haddad) would be on 28th Oct if no-one clears 50%.

    What are people betting on at the moment? I'm on Bolsonaro, Higgins in Ireland, and Cruz to win Texas, would be interested to know what some of the big punters are currently on.

    Thanks and best wishes to all,

    DC
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 11,066
    VM for @NickPalmer, if he’s around.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,496
    Mr. Carpet, cheers for that. Not my area, but heard whispers that a second place candidate might benefit from others rallying to him in order to oppose the 'populist' chap.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 236
    I think it will be 53/54 to Bolsonaro in the 2nd rd fwiw, one poll even has him on 50% for the first round.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 831
    alex. said:
    This is the stupidest thing I have heard in a long time. Not sure how you legislate for this - you can work 4 day week on 4/5ths salary. And the idea that AI and robots are benefitting those ‘at the top’ is laughable.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,935
    Nigelb said:

    More disturbing WTF stories:

    Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

    'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366

    The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,496
    Mr. Alistair, it does seem in line with the recent approach of cracking down on political dissent whilst broadening social freedoms (women driving, opening cinemas, etc).
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,895
    edited October 7

    I think it will be 53/54 to Bolsonaro in the 2nd rd fwiw, one poll even has him on 50% for the first round.

    Across 450,000 polling stations - an interesting one for sure.

    As per my previous posts, I am on Haddad at about 2/1.

    I am also on Labor in Wentworth.

    Both would be far behind o the first round but with plenty of room to grow.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 1,797

    Brazil Presidential 1st round

    Evening all and trust you're all well!

    From CNBC:

    "Polls open at 8 a.m. (1100 GMT) and close at 5 p.m. in all but the far western portions of Brazil. Exit polls should be broadcast at 7 p.m. and results will start flowing shortly after that because Brazil uses an electronic voting system.

    The 147 million voters will choose the president, all 513 members of the lower house of Congress, two-thirds of the 81-member Senate plus governors and lawmakers in all 27 states."

    TV:

    https://www.redetv.uol.com.br/aovivo/

    Official results:

    http://divulga.tse.jus.br/index.html

    Betfair:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.143383495

    The second round (likely Bolsonaro/Haddad) would be on 28th Oct if no-one clears 50%.

    What are people betting on at the moment? I'm on Bolsonaro, Higgins in Ireland, and Cruz to win Texas, would be interested to know what some of the big punters are currently on.

    Thanks and best wishes to all,

    DC

    Not sure if I count as a big punter but as a regular punter at any stakes I've laid Bolsonaro for a bit and am watching the first round vote share closely to consider adding to that since I suspect his odds will fall even if he is in the low/mid 30s (which would potentially indicate a difficult road to 50%).

    Also on Cruz to hold Texas. He could lose, which is quite something, but the odds have gotten ahead of the probabilities.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,895

    Mr. Carpet, cheers for that. Not my area, but heard whispers that a second place candidate might benefit from others rallying to him in order to oppose the 'populist' chap.

    Assuming there is a second round, it will be a lot closer than the first... the question is whether the "come back" Is enough (probably not, depends on the odds!!)
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 236
    Thanks for the updates both - always interesting to know what people are betting on.
  • mattmatt Posts: 1,983
    edited October 7

    alex. said:
    This is the stupidest thing I have heard in a long time. Not sure how you legislate for this - you can work 4 day week on 4/5ths salary. And the idea that AI and robots are benefitting those ‘at the top’ is laughable.
    It’s a obvious device to force more state control. It’s legislated, it doesn’t work (cba to list the immediate reasons but suffice to say that unlike the 1800s we do not bestride the world economy and have an informal empire to back it up), the failure is a result of corporates and the rich. Therefore more control of corporates is required.

    I’ve no doubt that they can find some economists to back it, in the same way that Brexit enthusasists see Minford as some sort of sage.

    It’s a mechanism to generate hate and envy.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,675
    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    More disturbing WTF stories:

    Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

    'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366

    The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
    Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 12,382
    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    More disturbing WTF stories:

    Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

    'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366

    The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
    Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
    One of the biggest qtwtain this year so far.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,654
    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    More disturbing WTF stories:

    Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

    'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366

    The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
    Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
    That's a lot of money.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 686
    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    More disturbing WTF stories:

    Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

    'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366

    The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
    Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
    No.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 1,450
    HYUFD said:

    I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.

    The YouGov model is far better than any hypothetical forecast of national percentage lead which takes no account of swing districts, on that model the Democrats will gain almost 30 seats from the 195 they hold currently. Indeed even with an estimated 7.3% lead the YouGov model taken in swing districts has the Democrats taking a majority in the House 222 to 213 for the Republicans.

    https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/08/19/cbs-news-yougov-house-model-democrats-222-republic

    The question is more whether the GOP can keep the Senate now, especially after the Senate confirmed Kavanaugh which may drive up female Democratic turnout, than whether the Dems will take the House.

    What odds do you put on Dems taking a) the House, b) the Senate?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,935
    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    More disturbing WTF stories:

    Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

    'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366

    The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
    Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
    Well given Thatcher was perfectly happy ignore the murder of an Observer journalist by Saddam to keep lucrative export contracts I'd imagine no.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,102

    HYUFD said:

    I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.

    The YouGov model is far better than any hypothetical forecast of national percentage lead which takes no account of swing districts, on that model the Democrats will gain almost 30 seats from the 195 they hold currently. Indeed even with an estimated 7.3% lead the YouGov model taken in swing districts has the Democrats taking a majority in the House 222 to 213 for the Republicans.

    https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/08/19/cbs-news-yougov-house-model-democrats-222-republic

    The question is more whether the GOP can keep the Senate now, especially after the Senate confirmed Kavanaugh which may drive up female Democratic turnout, than whether the Dems will take the House.

    What odds do you put on Dems taking a) the House, b) the Senate?
    I don't tend to bet but I would say the Dems have an 80% chance of taking the House and a 45% chance of taking the Senate
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 6,299
    HYUFD said:

    I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.

    The YouGov model is far better than any hypothetical forecast of national percentage lead which takes no account of swing districts, on that model the Democrats will gain almost 30 seats from the 195 they hold currently. Indeed even with an estimated 7.3% lead the YouGov model taken in swing districts has the Democrats taking a majority in the House 222 to 213 for the Republicans.

    https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/08/19/cbs-news-yougov-house-model-democrats-222-republic

    The question is more whether the GOP can keep the Senate now, especially after the Senate confirmed Kavanaugh which may drive up female Democratic turnout, than whether the Dems will take the House.

    538 makes it 74% to 26% that the Dems take the House.
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,935
    edited October 7
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.

    The YouGov model is far better than any hypothetical forecast of national percentage lead which takes no account of swing districts, on that model the Democrats will gain almost 30 seats from the 195 they hold currently. Indeed even with an estimated 7.3% lead the YouGov model taken in swing districts has the Democrats taking a majority in the House 222 to 213 for the Republicans.

    https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/08/19/cbs-news-yougov-house-model-democrats-222-republic

    The question is more whether the GOP can keep the Senate now, especially after the Senate confirmed Kavanaugh which may drive up female Democratic turnout, than whether the Dems will take the House.

    What odds do you put on Dems taking a) the House, b) the Senate?
    I don't tend to bet but I would say the Dems have an 80% chance of taking the House and a 45% chance of taking the Senate
    If say way less chance of taking the Senate but agree with you on the House.

    As things stand. However the reason I have greened out on the market is because Events seem pretty hard to predict and quantify.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,420
    edited October 7
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.

    The YouGov model is far better than any hypothetical forecast of national percentage lead which takes no account of swing districts, on that model the Democrats will gain almost 30 seats from the 195 they hold currently. Indeed even with an estimated 7.3% lead the YouGov model taken in swing districts has the Democrats taking a majority in the House 222 to 213 for the Republicans.

    https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/08/19/cbs-news-yougov-house-model-democrats-222-republic

    The question is more whether the GOP can keep the Senate now, especially after the Senate confirmed Kavanaugh which may drive up female Democratic turnout, than whether the Dems will take the House.

    What odds do you put on Dems taking a) the House, b) the Senate?
    I don't tend to bet but I would say the Dems have an 80% chance of taking the House and a 45% chance of taking the Senate
    If say way less chance of taking the Senate but agree with you on the House.

    As things stand. However the reason I have greened out on the market is because Events seem pretty hard to predict and quantify.
    Agreed. I think it's perhaps a one in ten shot for the Senate. (Maybe 1-in-20)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,420
    Quincel said:

    Brazil Presidential 1st round

    Evening all and trust you're all well!

    From CNBC:

    "Polls open at 8 a.m. (1100 GMT) and close at 5 p.m. in all but the far western portions of Brazil. Exit polls should be broadcast at 7 p.m. and results will start flowing shortly after that because Brazil uses an electronic voting system.

    The 147 million voters will choose the president, all 513 members of the lower house of Congress, two-thirds of the 81-member Senate plus governors and lawmakers in all 27 states."

    TV:

    https://www.redetv.uol.com.br/aovivo/

    Official results:

    http://divulga.tse.jus.br/index.html

    Betfair:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.143383495

    The second round (likely Bolsonaro/Haddad) would be on 28th Oct if no-one clears 50%.

    What are people betting on at the moment? I'm on Bolsonaro, Higgins in Ireland, and Cruz to win Texas, would be interested to know what some of the big punters are currently on.

    Thanks and best wishes to all,

    DC

    Not sure if I count as a big punter but as a regular punter at any stakes I've laid Bolsonaro for a bit and am watching the first round vote share closely to consider adding to that since I suspect his odds will fall even if he is in the low/mid 30s (which would potentially indicate a difficult road to 50%).

    Also on Cruz to hold Texas. He could lose, which is quite something, but the odds have gotten ahead of the probabilities.
    The Democrats just lost a House Seat in Texas (https://www.texastribune.org/2018/09/18/republican-pete-flores-track-upset-race-democratic-friendly-uresti-sea/), which indicates all is not well there.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,102
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.

    The YouGov model is far better than any hypothetical forecast of national percentage lead which takes no account of swing districts, on that model the Democrats will gain almost 30 seats from the 195 they hold currently. Indeed even with an estimated 7.3% lead the YouGov model taken in swing districts has the Democrats taking a majority in the House 222 to 213 for the Republicans.

    https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/08/19/cbs-news-yougov-house-model-democrats-222-republic

    The question is more whether the GOP can keep the Senate now, especially after the Senate confirmed Kavanaugh which may drive up female Democratic turnout, than whether the Dems will take the House.

    What odds do you put on Dems taking a) the House, b) the Senate?
    I don't tend to bet but I would say the Dems have an 80% chance of taking the House and a 45% chance of taking the Senate
    If say way less chance of taking the Senate but agree with you on the House.

    As things stand. However the reason I have greened out on the market is because Events seem pretty hard to predict and quantify.
    On the latest Senate polls the Dems would take Nevada, Arizona and hold all their current seats bar N Dakota with Florida and Missouri tied. If they won Florida and Missouri that would make it 50 50 with Pence having the casting vote. If the Dems win Tennessee or Texas where they led at least 1 poll last month that would give a Dem majority

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 5,384
    I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,895
    justin124 said:

    I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?

    Is she going to be a midwife?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,895
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.

    The YouGov model is far better than any hypothetical forecast of national percentage lead which takes no account of swing districts, on that model the Democrats will gain almost 30 seats from the 195 they hold currently. Indeed even with an estimated 7.3% lead the YouGov model taken in swing districts has the Democrats taking a majority in the House 222 to 213 for the Republicans.

    https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/08/19/cbs-news-yougov-house-model-democrats-222-republic

    The question is more whether the GOP can keep the Senate now, especially after the Senate confirmed Kavanaugh which may drive up female Democratic turnout, than whether the Dems will take the House.

    What odds do you put on Dems taking a) the House, b) the Senate?
    I don't tend to bet but I would say the Dems have an 80% chance of taking the House and a 45% chance of taking the Senate
    If say way less chance of taking the Senate but agree with you on the House.

    As things stand. However the reason I have greened out on the market is because Events seem pretty hard to predict and quantify.
    On the latest Senate polls the Dems would take Nevada, Arizona and hold all their current seats bar N Dakota with Florida and Missouri tied. If they won Florida and Missouri that would make it 50 50 with Pence having the casting vote. If the Dems win Tennessee or Texas where they led at least 1 poll last month that would give a Dem majority

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018
    but n.b. the independents do not count as Dems for Betfair purposes
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 5,384

    justin124 said:

    I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?

    Is she going to be a midwife?
    She is indeed.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,857
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.

    The YouGov model is far better than any hypothetical forecast of national percentage lead which takes no account of swing districts, on that model the Democrats will gain almost 30 seats from the 195 they hold currently. Indeed even with an estimated 7.3% lead the YouGov model taken in swing districts has the Democrats taking a majority in the House 222 to 213 for the Republicans.

    https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/08/19/cbs-news-yougov-house-model-democrats-222-republic

    The question is more whether the GOP can keep the Senate now, especially after the Senate confirmed Kavanaugh which may drive up female Democratic turnout, than whether the Dems will take the House.

    What odds do you put on Dems taking a) the House, b) the Senate?
    I don't tend to bet but I would say the Dems have an 80% chance of taking the House and a 45% chance of taking the Senate
    You "don't tend to bet"??? Yet you of all PB posters seem so very sure of the future; surely, you could make a fortune...?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,662
    edited October 7
    justin124 said:

    I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?

    Education is one of the oldest non-liberal arts degrees.

    PS I've never come across Nursing-Film Studies. Which university offers that and what do you study?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,935
    justin124 said:

    I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?

    A midwife degree is normally half academic study and half on the job training.
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 337
    justin124 said:

    I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?

    Would you care to name a degree course that wasn't, at some point, invented?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,654
    justin124 said:

    I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?

    Just that I'd assume a large proportion of such a course surely has to be on the job training, basically apprenticeship.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,102
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.

    The YouGov model is far better than any hypothetical forecast of national percentage lead which takes no account of swing districts, on that model the Democrats will gain almost 30 seats from the 195 they hold currently. Indeed even with an estimated 7.3% lead the YouGov model taken in swing districts has the Democrats taking a majority in the House 222 to 213 for the Republicans.

    https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/08/19/cbs-news-yougov-house-model-democrats-222-republic

    The question is more whether the GOP can keep the Senate now, especially after the Senate confirmed Kavanaugh which may drive up female Democratic turnout, than whether the Dems will take the House.

    What odds do you put on Dems taking a) the House, b) the Senate?
    I don't tend to bet but I would say the Dems have an 80% chance of taking the House and a 45% chance of taking the Senate
    You "don't tend to bet"??? Yet you of all PB posters seem so very sure of the future; surely, you could make a fortune...?
    The last time I bet with Betfair online on politics was Newt Gingrich to win the South Carolina Primary in 2012
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 5,384
    edited October 7
    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?

    Education is one of the oldest non-liberal arts degrees.
    I was thinking of the B.Ed - which I believe came along in the 1980s when it was decided that Teaching should become an all -graduate profession. In reality the B.Ed was little different to the Teaching Certificate which it replaced as the main qualification for Primary School Teaching.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,102

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.

    The YouGov model is far better than any hypothetical forecast of national percentage lead which takes no account of swing districts, on that model the Democrats will gain almost 30 seats from the 195 they hold currently. Indeed even with an estimated 7.3% lead the YouGov model taken in swing districts has the Democrats taking a majority in the House 222 to 213 for the Republicans.

    https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/08/19/cbs-news-yougov-house-model-democrats-222-republic

    The question is more whether the GOP can keep the Senate now, especially after the Senate confirmed Kavanaugh which may drive up female Democratic turnout, than whether the Dems will take the House.

    What odds do you put on Dems taking a) the House, b) the Senate?
    I don't tend to bet but I would say the Dems have an 80% chance of taking the House and a 45% chance of taking the Senate
    If say way less chance of taking the Senate but agree with you on the House.

    As things stand. However the reason I have greened out on the market is because Events seem pretty hard to predict and quantify.
    On the latest Senate polls the Dems would take Nevada, Arizona and hold all their current seats bar N Dakota with Florida and Missouri tied. If they won Florida and Missouri that would make it 50 50 with Pence having the casting vote. If the Dems win Tennessee or Texas where they led at least 1 poll last month that would give a Dem majority

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018
    but n.b. the independents do not count as Dems for Betfair purposes
    They caucus with the Dems so in reality are whatever Betfair say
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,662
    edited October 7
    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?

    Education is one of the oldest non-liberal arts degrees.
    I was thinking of the B.Ed - which I believe came along in the 1980s when it was decided that Teaching should become an all -graduate profession. In reality the B.Ed was litle different to the Teaching Certificate which it replaced as the main qualification for Primary School Teaching.
    You would believe wrong. My mother was a BEd and qualified in 1967. I think it was first awarded in 1851, although I can't be sure without checking.

    You're confusing it with the PGCE, which does date from the 80s but is not a degree.

    Edit - certainly doctorates in education were awarded from the nineteenth century.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 5,384
    Alistair said:

    justin124 said:

    I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?

    A midwife degree is normally half academic study and half on the job training.
    Yes - that is my impression too. Until recently,however, there was no expectation that a Midwife would be expected to be a graduate. Ditto re-Nursing.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,675
    justin124 said:

    I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?

    It combines book learning and practical stuff, a bit like my own medical degree. Is that a proper degree? In the 18th Century they didn't think so! :)
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 5,384
    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?

    Education is one of the oldest non-liberal arts degrees.

    PS I've never come across Nursing-Film Studies. Which university offers that and what do you study?
    Two separate courses - Nursing - Film Studies etc!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,662
    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?

    It combines book learning and practical stuff, a bit like my own medical degree. Is that a proper degree? In the 18th Century they didn't think so! :)
    The BM is an interesting example of a degree that really has failed to move with the times. Given its length, its complexity and the high standards that should be and I believe are demanded, it is ridiculous that it is still a bachelor's degree. It should really be a doctorate, as in the US. The fact it isn't is a hangover from the days when doctorates were awarded as more or less an honorary thing by universities, rather than a specific qualification.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 5,384
    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?

    Education is one of the oldest non-liberal arts degrees.
    I was thinking of the B.Ed - which I believe came along in the 1980s when it was decided that Teaching should become an all -graduate profession. In reality the B.Ed was litle different to the Teaching Certificate which it replaced as the main qualification for Primary School Teaching.
    You would believe wrong. My mother was a BEd and qualified in 1967. I think it was first awarded in 1851, although I can't be sure without checking.

    You're confusing it with the PGCE, which does date from the 80s but is not a degree.

    Edit - certainly doctorates in education were awarded from the nineteenth century.
    The PGCE - or something similar - was always the route taken by Graduates wishing to enter the Teaching Profession .It usually involved a further year of study following graduation.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,662
    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?

    Education is one of the oldest non-liberal arts degrees.

    PS I've never come across Nursing-Film Studies. Which university offers that and what do you study?
    Two separate courses - Nursing - Film Studies etc!
    Pity. I had a wonderful vision of a course that centred on Scrubs and Carry On Nurse...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,675
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    More disturbing WTF stories:

    Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

    'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366

    The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
    Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
    That's a lot of money.
    We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 5,384
    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?

    It combines book learning and practical stuff, a bit like my own medical degree. Is that a proper degree? In the 18th Century they didn't think so! :)
    Much more comparable to a Nursing Degree I would have thought.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,662
    edited October 7
    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?

    Education is one of the oldest non-liberal arts degrees.
    I was thinking of the B.Ed - which I believe came along in the 1980s when it was decided that Teaching should become an all -graduate profession. In reality the B.Ed was litle different to the Teaching Certificate which it replaced as the main qualification for Primary School Teaching.
    You would believe wrong. My mother was a BEd and qualified in 1967. I think it was first awarded in 1851, although I can't be sure without checking.

    You're confusing it with the PGCE, which does date from the 80s but is not a degree.

    Edit - certainly doctorates in education were awarded from the nineteenth century.
    The PGCE - or something similar - was always the route taken by Graduates wishing to enter the Teaching Profession .It usually involved a further year of study following graduation.
    I hate to be contradictory - but it really wasn't. It is a new invention. Graduates going into teaching either did teaching diplomas, which could be degrees, at Teacher Training Colleges, or undergraduate degrees and then straight into teaching. It is only comparatively recently that the PGCE has been brought in as a professional qualification. (And as an aside, you don't actually need a degree to do it - the professional graduate certificate only requires A-levels.) Now of course it is being phased out itself, which seems ironic.

    Edit - and actually it was more to do with union pressure than government pressure. They wanted to restrict the pool of potential applicants to drive up wages.

    Anyway, I am going to get an early night. Have a good evening.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,654
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    More disturbing WTF stories:

    Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

    'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366

    The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
    Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
    That's a lot of money.
    We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
    I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,895
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.

    The YouGov model is far better than any hypothetical forecast of national percentage lead which takes no account of swing districts, on that model the Democrats will gain almost 30 seats from the 195 they hold currently. Indeed even with an estimated 7.3% lead the YouGov model taken in swing districts has the Democrats taking a majority in the House 222 to 213 for the Republicans.

    https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/08/19/cbs-news-yougov-house-model-democrats-222-republic

    The question is more whether the GOP can keep the Senate now, especially after the Senate confirmed Kavanaugh which may drive up female Democratic turnout, than whether the Dems will take the House.

    What odds do you put on Dems taking a) the House, b) the Senate?
    I don't tend to bet but I would say the Dems have an 80% chance of taking the House and a 45% chance of taking the Senate
    If say way less chance of taking the Senate but agree with you on the House.

    As things stand. However the reason I have greened out on the market is because Events seem pretty hard to predict and quantify.
    On the latest Senate polls the Dems would take Nevada, Arizona and hold all their current seats bar N Dakota with Florida and Missouri tied. If they won Florida and Missouri that would make it 50 50 with Pence having the casting vote. If the Dems win Tennessee or Texas where they led at least 1 poll last month that would give a Dem majority

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018
    but n.b. the independents do not count as Dems for Betfair purposes
    They caucus with the Dems so in reality are whatever Betfair say
    I mean Sanders was almost their candidate.

    but if you're betting on it...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,675
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    More disturbing WTF stories:

    Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

    'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366

    The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
    Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
    That's a lot of money.
    We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
    I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
    Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?

    Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,675
    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?

    It combines book learning and practical stuff, a bit like my own medical degree. Is that a proper degree? In the 18th Century they didn't think so! :)
    Much more comparable to a Nursing Degree I would have thought.
    I am happy to be considered an artisan!
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 5,384
    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?

    I was thinking of the B.Ed - which I believe came along in the 1980s when it was decided that Teaching should become an all -graduate profession. In reality the B.Ed was litle different to the Teaching Certificate which it replaced as the main qualification for Primary School Teaching.
    You would believe wrong. My mother was a BEd and qualified in 1967. I think it was first awarded in 1851, although I can't be sure without checking.

    You're confusing it with the PGCE, which does date from the 80s but is not a degree.

    Edit - certainly doctorates in education were awarded from the nineteenth century.
    The PGCE - or something similar - was always the route taken by Graduates wishing to enter the Teaching Profession .It usually involved a further year of study following graduation.
    I hate to be contradictory - but it really wasn't. It is a new invention. Graduates going into teaching either did teaching diplomas, which could be degrees, at Teacher Training Colleges, or undergraduate degrees and then straight into teaching. It is only comparatively recently that the PGCE has been brought in as a professional qualification. (And as an aside, you don't actually need a degree to do it - the professional graduate certificate only requires A-levels.) Now of course it is being phased out itself, which seems ironic.

    Edit - and actually it was more to do with union pressure than government pressure. They wanted to restrict the pool of potential applicants to drive up wages.

    Anyway, I am going to get an early night. Have a good evening.
    But surely the Teaching Diploma tended - not always - to be studied within the University at which he/she had graduated. I have clear memories from the mid-1970s of students staying on for an extra year at university to do the teaching qualification.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,654
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    More disturbing WTF stories:

    Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

    'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366

    The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
    Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
    That's a lot of money.
    We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
    I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
    Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?

    Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?
    Of course I can, not that I think it is likely to be that new of a trend. You didn't ask if we thought it was ok, you asked if the government would stop arm sales. That wasn't a question which required a moral position to be taken in the answer, and the lack of one doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,957
    edited October 7
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    More disturbing WTF stories:

    Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

    'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366

    The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
    Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
    That's a lot of money.
    We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
    I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
    Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?

    Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?
    Well i suppose if one was being picky, the difference is that the alleged Saudi murder didn't take place on foreign soil (as well as the chemical weapon element)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,102
    edited October 7
    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?

    It combines book learning and practical stuff, a bit like my own medical degree. Is that a proper degree? In the 18th Century they didn't think so! :)
    Classics and Theology are the only proper degrees, studied at Oxford or Cambridge, our only 2 proper universities as Sir Humphrey Appleby would say!

    In 1840 87% of Oxford graduates became professionals and 59% of those became Anglican Clergy.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Oxford
  • justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?

    I was thinking of the B.Ed - which I believe came along in the 1980s when it was decided that Teaching should become an all -graduate profession. In reality the B.Ed was litle different to the Teaching Certificate which it replaced as the main qualification for Primary School Teaching.
    You would believe wrong. My mother was a BEd and qualified in 1967. I think it was first awarded in 1851, although I can't be sure without checking.

    You're confusing it with the PGCE, which does date from the 80s but is not a degree.

    Edit - certainly doctorates in education were awarded from the nineteenth century.
    The PGCE - or something similar - was always the route taken by Graduates wishing to enter the Teaching Profession .It usually involved a further year of study following graduation.
    I hate to be contradictory - but it really wasn't. It is a new invention. Graduates going into teaching either did teaching diplomas, which could be degrees, at Teacher Training Colleges, or undergraduate degrees and then straight into teaching. It is only comparatively recently that the PGCE has been brought in as a professional qualification. (And as an aside, you don't actually need a degree to do it - the professional graduate certificate only requires A-levels.) Now of course it is being phased out itself, which seems ironic.

    Edit - and actually it was more to do with union pressure than government pressure. They wanted to restrict the pool of potential applicants to drive up wages.

    Anyway, I am going to get an early night. Have a good evening.
    But surely the Teaching Diploma tended - not always - to be studied within the University at which he/she had graduated. I have clear memories from the mid-1970s of students staying on for an extra year at university to do the teaching qualification.
    Private schools could / can take graduates direct without a teaching qualification I believe
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,895
    well, it's 8:23 and brazilian TV is still cookery accompanied by elavator music...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,675
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    More disturbing WTF stories:

    Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

    'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366

    The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
    Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
    That's a lot of money.
    We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
    I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
    Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?

    Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?
    Of course I can, not that I think it is likely to be that new of a trend. You didn't ask if we thought it was ok, you asked if the government would stop arm sales. That wasn't a question which required a moral position to be taken in the answer, and the lack of one doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
    I agree, a government that colludes with Saudi crimes in Yemen is not likely to object vociferously to this. We have a government that cannot tell the difference between a war crime and a sales opportunity.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,260
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    More disturbing WTF stories:

    Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

    'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366

    The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
    Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
    That's a lot of money.
    We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
    I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
    Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?

    Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?
    Do we (and by we, I mean our government) complain about Putin doing the same?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,675
    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    More disturbing WTF stories:

    Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

    'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366

    The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
    Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
    That's a lot of money.
    We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
    I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
    Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?

    Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?
    Do we (and by we, I mean our government) complain about Putin doing the same?
    I do seem to recall that we objected to Putin bumping off opposition activists abroad.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,260
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    More disturbing WTF stories:

    Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

    'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366

    The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
    Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
    That's a lot of money.
    We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
    I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
    Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?

    Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?
    Do we (and by we, I mean our government) complain about Putin doing the same?
    I do seem to recall that we objected to Putin bumping off opposition activists abroad.
    I know it's splitting hairs, but isn't a consulate technically Saudi soil?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 4,312
    Evening all :)

    A week tonight, we'll be chewing over the results from the Bavaria State Election, the first of two key tests for the German political parties (Hesse is the second on the 28th).

    In Bavaria the latest polls point to sharp losses for both the CSU and SPD:

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm

    CSU down 12-14 points, SPD down 7-9 points and again both the Greens and AfD the big winners. The CSU look set to lose their majority but if the FDP scrape back into the Landtag there may be a coalition there.

    It's remarkable to see the CSU/SPD which had more than 2/3 of the vote in the 2013 election now holding less than half.

    In Hesse, the pattern is similar but not quite as severe:

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/hessen.htm

    CDU down nine, SPD down eight with the Greens up seven and AfD gaining nine from the last State poll in 2013. The FDP look to be coming back into the Landtag but Hesse is unusual in having the only CDU-Green coalition Government but that Government looks set to lose its majority but it may well continue as a minority.

    So even with these big losses, the centre-right parties look to hold on in the State Governments but it makes for unpleasant reading for the governing parties and must put pressure on Merkel and Schultz.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 236
    Vielen dank Stodge!!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,260
    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    More disturbing WTF stories:

    Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

    'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366

    The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
    Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
    That's a lot of money.
    We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
    I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
    Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?

    Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?
    Do we (and by we, I mean our government) complain about Putin doing the same?
    I do seem to recall that we objected to Putin bumping off opposition activists abroad.
    I know it's splitting hairs, but isn't a consulate technically Saudi soil?
    Having done some digging it would seem that it is not Saudi soil, but it does have diplomatic immunity.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,720
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    More disturbing WTF stories:

    Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

    'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366

    The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
    Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
    That's a lot of money.
    We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
    I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
    Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?

    Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?
    Do we (and by we, I mean our government) complain about Putin doing the same?
    I do seem to recall that we objected to Putin bumping off opposition activists abroad.
    I know it's splitting hairs, but isn't a consulate technically Saudi soil?
    Having done some digging it would seem that it is not Saudi soil, but it does have diplomatic immunity.
    Diplomatic impunity more like.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,260
    geoffw said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    More disturbing WTF stories:

    Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

    'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366

    The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
    Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
    That's a lot of money.
    We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
    I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
    Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?

    Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?
    Do we (and by we, I mean our government) complain about Putin doing the same?
    I do seem to recall that we objected to Putin bumping off opposition activists abroad.
    I know it's splitting hairs, but isn't a consulate technically Saudi soil?
    Having done some digging it would seem that it is not Saudi soil, but it does have diplomatic immunity.
    Diplomatic impunity more like.
    :D
  • stodgestodge Posts: 4,312

    Vielen dank Stodge!!

    Bitte schon (as it were). I imagine you'll be running some competitions on these fascinating contests.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 236
    edited October 7
    Haha I've retired from that sadly (until further notice anyway) but still following 40-odd countries.

    BF latest is Bolsonaro 1.42 Haddad 3.5
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,895

    Haha I've retired from that sadly (until further notice anyway) but still following 40-odd countries.

    BF latest is Bolsonaro 1.42 Haddad 3.5

    This is one for TSE sure given he's named after the Brazilian government agency responsible for counting the votes
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 236
    Hahaha!

    Big move on BF for Haddad into 2.42 but Bolsonaro hasn't moved so we're probably talking pretty small amounts of money.

    20 states and DF closed at 9pm UK, 5 more states at 10pm UK, final state at 11pm so presumably we'll get the exit polls then.

    Already exits for governor races are coming out.

    Brazil counts very fast (like India) with the electronic voting and counting.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 17,393
    edited October 7
    The Welsh rally car competition finished today in Llandudno with the rally cars going round the Great Orme driven at speeds of 100 + and it was an amazing spectacle. After they came off the Great Orme they drove at speed through part of the town before finishing over a jump by the St George's Hotel on the promenade

    Between the first round and second round there was an interval where rally cross motor bikes performed stunts including, apparently, one where one rider went at speed at the ramp with another one going directly towards the oncoming rider.

    Very sadly the two bikers collided head on and a 3 year boy has been flown by air ambulance to Alderhey Childrens Hospital with life threatening injuries. The police are appealing for mobile footage and investigations continue.

    It is an uttertly dreadful thing to happen and we must all hope and pray the little lad overcomes his injuries.

    I have been reading various reports on my twitter feed and on the daily mail comments there are overwhelming comments of sadness and hope the little lad and his family receive good news soon. But here is the thing, there are some 'morons' actively disliking the sentiments.

    What has become of us for pity sake
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,895

    Hahaha!

    Big move on BF for Haddad into 2.42 but Bolsonaro hasn't moved so we're probably talking pretty small amounts of money.

    20 states and DF closed at 9pm UK, 5 more states at 10pm UK, final state at 11pm so presumably we'll get the exit polls then.

    Already exits for governor races are coming out.

    Brazil counts very fast (like India) with the electronic voting and counting.

    I assumed that was the effect of going inplay or somesuch - no money changed hands at all
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 236
    Senate Minas Gerais - former president Dilma only 4th:

    Jornalista Carlos Viana (PHS): 21%
    Dinis Pinheiro (SOLIDARIEDADE): 18%
    Rodrigo Pacheco (DEM): 18%
    Dilma Rousseff (PT): 15%
    Miguel Correa (PT): 7%
    Rodrigo Paiva (NOVO): 7%
    Fábio Cherem (PDT): 4%
    Professora Duda Salabert (PSOL): 3%
    Coronel Lacerda (PPL): 2%
    Bispo Damasceno (PPL): 1%
    Edson Andre P (AVANTE): 1%
    Kaka Menezes (REDE): 1%
    Professor Tulio Lopes (PCB): 1%
    Vanessa Portugal Barbosa (PSTU): 1%
    Ana Alves (PCO): 0%
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 236
    Yep Haddad is back out to 3.2 now.

    If Rd 1 really is 41/25, it will be very difficult for Haddad to win the second round, Bolsonaro will only need to add Alckmin's share and he'll be pretty much there.
This discussion has been closed.