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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Three new Scotland polls find Corbyn’s LAB struggling to recov

SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited October 9 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Three new Scotland polls find Corbyn’s LAB struggling to recover

It might be recalled that in August Corbyn had an extended visit to Scotland with the aim of revitalising the party where it used to be so dominant. Over the past few days we have seen the first published polling since that move

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,260
    First.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 30,975
    Second! Like SCon....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,857
    Third like Boris
  • RobDRobD Posts: 33,955
    Fourth :(
  • The Scots don't want Independence but want the SNP.

    Hurrah for split ticketing.

    Someone fire up the KLAXON.
  • RobD said:

    Fourth :(

    I was first and second on the other thread.

    Time for a Judge led inquiry into these vanilla gremlins.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 30,975
    edited October 9
    A bit of background from the Nats favourite columnist:

    This might seem an opportune time for Scottish Labour to make a fresh start with the voters by talking about the issues that matter to them. That is, after all, why members chose Richard Leonard as leader 11 months ago. He was a break from the leadership class defined by the acrimonious politics of 2014. Leonard, his partisans argued, could take Labour back to its roots.

    In that sense, he has proved a sterling success. In its heyday, Scottish Labour was home to so many internecine grudges and bloody vendettas that John Smith House could have doubled as the Corleone family mansion.

    Now, the factions and in-fighting are back. Don Leonardo isn’t the most impressive of godfathers — every time he gives a speech, he makes the voters an offer they can’t remember — but this mild-mannered union fixer has done more to undermine unity within Scottish Labour than their political opponents. Leonard should be required to register his leadership as an in-kind donation to the SNP.


    https://stephendaisley.com/2018/10/08/richard-leonard-is-turning-scottish-labour-into-corbynism-with-a-kilt/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 33,955

    RobD said:

    Fourth :(

    I was first and second on the other thread.

    Time for a Judge led inquiry into these vanilla gremlins.
    Ah, sweet karma. :smiley:
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,496
    It does seem that opposing Evil Westminster/England (and Wales) might help out the SNP quite a bit next time.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 17,393
    Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP, and Brexit have seen off Scot labour.

    Labour have nothing to say to the Scots that the SNP are not already doing and the Scon lead by Ruth Davidson are the pro union party.

    It does not help for an Englishman to be leader of Scot labour either.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,127

    RobD said:

    Fourth :(

    I was first and second on the other thread.

    Time for a Judge led inquiry into these vanilla gremlins.
    Straight to SCOTUS
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 17,393

    The Scots don't want Independence but want the SNP.

    Hurrah for split ticketing.

    Someone fire up the KLAXON.

    That hits the nail on the head.

    I could vote SNP in Scotland but no to independence. Indeed there are many SNP supporters with the same view
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,674
    edited October 9

    The Scots don't want Independence but want the SNP.

    Hurrah for split ticketing.

    Someone fire up the KLAXON.

    That hits the nail on the head.

    I could vote SNP in Scotland but no to independence. Indeed there are many SNP supporters with the same view
    If they ran in Leics, I would vote SNP, more sane than my local parties for sure!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 17,393

    It does seem that opposing Evil Westminster/England (and Wales) might help out the SNP quite a bit next time.

    There is a real anger growing in Scotland that they are not being listened to over Brexit and I can see that reflected in my family and elsewhere.

    However, this anger has not grown to any extent that they want Independence

    They just feel the SNP are the party to protect Scottish interests.

    Labour do not get a hearing
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,582
    "All show LAB still in third place north of the border the part of the UK where they were totally dominant. This all changed, of course, the post September 2014 SNP surge following the IndyRef"

    This is a bit of a Westminster-centric view.

    - The SNP won the 2007 Holyrood election, by fractions
    - The 2007 local elections in Scotland were effectively a tie (SNP won most seats, Labour most votes)
    - The SNP won the 2009 European election, by 29 to 20 per cent
    - The SNP won the 2011 Holyrood election in 2011 with 44% to Labour's 26%;
    - The SNP won the 2012 local elections, albeit by nothing like as much;
    - The SNP won the 2014 European election by 29% to 26%.

    The reality is that, other than the 2010 UK general election, Labour's dominance had long gone. What the referendum did was turn what had previously been a one-off, in the 2011 Holyrood election - a big SNP lead and share - into the new norm.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 30,975
    edited October 9
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,496
    Mr. NorthWales, it does seem, from the outside, reminiscent of the falling between two stools situation (if you want the union, go blue, if you want to separate, go SNP).

    How does your family want things to proceed? Is their desire to influence the UK proposals or for divergence for Scotland?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,615
    If SCons lose seats at the next GE, then I don't mind if SLab goes backwards too. Reverting to the 2015 result would suit me fine.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,127
    Here's a great resource for the midterms: https://0ptimus.decisiondeskhq.com
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,857
    How come Scotland has done with politicians what it has never achieved with footballers?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,420
    Pulpstar said:

    Here's a great resource for the midterms: https://0ptimus.decisiondeskhq.com

    Hard to disagree on the Senate predictions. The Dems have an awfully difficult task.

    The interesting question to me is whether the upsurge in Republican enthusiasm we're seeing due to the Kavanagh nomination farce will flow into real votes in the House of Representatives. My gut says it's probably bought them a couple of percent, but I'd reckon the Dems are still narrow favourites (given how gerrymandered it is).
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 17,393

    Mr. NorthWales, it does seem, from the outside, reminiscent of the falling between two stools situation (if you want the union, go blue, if you want to separate, go SNP).

    How does your family want things to proceed? Is their desire to influence the UK proposals or for divergence for Scotland?

    I think the UK government have just ignored Scotland and there will be a price to pay. My hope is that once a deal is announced (hopefully) the UK government will devolve power to Holyrood

    Of course the fishing communities want out of the EU and if the fishermen do not get that a lot of Scon seats will fall. I am aware of lifelong SNP supporters who support the Scon for this very reason.

    I do not think the English are doing themselves any favours, especially JRM and Boris. Boris would be a disaster for the Scons
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,496
    Mr. NorthWales, knotty to try and take account of the view of Scotland whilst also actually leaving, though. I sympathise with the perspective.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 19,756

    Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP, and Brexit have seen off Scot labour.

    Labour have nothing to say to the Scots that the SNP are not already doing and the Scon lead by Ruth Davidson are the pro union party.

    It does not help for an Englishman to be leader of Scot labour either.

    SLab - third in the polls for a third-rate party.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 19,756

    If SCons lose seats at the next GE, then I don't mind if SLab goes backwards too. Reverting to the 2015 result would suit me fine.

    I'm sure it would suit Theresa May just fine too.....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,214
    "Pc Keith Palmer was let down by a police chief not brave enough to help save him

    Allison Pearson"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/life/pc-keith-palmer-let-police-chief-not-brave-enough-help-save/
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 1,071
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Here's a great resource for the midterms: https://0ptimus.decisiondeskhq.com

    Hard to disagree on the Senate predictions. The Dems have an awfully difficult task.

    The interesting question to me is whether the upsurge in Republican enthusiasm we're seeing due to the Kavanagh nomination farce will flow into real votes in the House of Representatives. My gut says it's probably bought them a couple of percent, but I'd reckon the Dems are still narrow favourites (given how gerrymandered it is).
    It is a good question. To get a benefit, the GOP needs to keep their voters angry for another month. Yet they did get what they wanted, so is that actually achievable? The Dems on the other hand aren't going to find it difficult to keep their voters angry until Nov 6.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,004
    Justin24 will ba along soon to tell us how his bones see big gains for SLab at the expense of both the SCons and the SNats. All polling can therefore be ignored till it agree with him.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 17,393
    felix said:

    Justin24 will ba along soon to tell us how his bones see big gains for SLab at the expense of both the SCons and the SNats. All polling can therefore be ignored till it agree with him.

    The only way to respect the Scots is to grant them extensive devolution

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,214
    Interesting article in the Spectator USA:

    "White liberalism is dying
    It’s too liberal for a majority of whites, yet too distant from the concerns of most non-whites

    Daniel McCarthy"

    https://spectator.us/2018/10/white-liberalism/
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,123
    edited October 9

    "All show LAB still in third place north of the border the part of the UK where they were totally dominant. This all changed, of course, the post September 2014 SNP surge following the IndyRef"

    This is a bit of a Westminster-centric view.

    - The SNP won the 2007 Holyrood election, by fractions
    - The 2007 local elections in Scotland were effectively a tie (SNP won most seats, Labour most votes)
    - The SNP won the 2009 European election, by 29 to 20 per cent
    - The SNP won the 2011 Holyrood election in 2011 with 44% to Labour's 26%;
    - The SNP won the 2012 local elections, albeit by nothing like as much;
    - The SNP won the 2014 European election by 29% to 26%.

    The reality is that, other than the 2010 UK general election, Labour's dominance had long gone. What the referendum did was turn what had previously been a one-off, in the 2011 Holyrood election - a big SNP lead and share - into the new norm.

    You can go back even further than 2007, and find a Labour "overperformance" in Westminster elections, compared to all other Scottish elections.

    From the early 1990s right through to Indyref1, there seemed to be a section of voters who voted Labour in UK general elections, but voted SNP for everything else: the SNP also performed better in the 1999 and 2003 Holyrood elections than they did for Westminster. Even in the mid-90s, Labour ran utterly rampant across the UK in the 1994 European elections, but the SNP ran them quite close in Scotland. Then the referendum happened and it converted that chunk of SNP sympathisers into SNP Westminster voters for the first time.

    The question is whether 2017 showed that that chunk of "Labour for Westminster, SNP elsewhere" is returning. My guess is that it is a little bit, and that Labour could gain 5-10 extra Westminster seats from the SNP next time, but that the SNP should stay fairly comfortable in Scottish Parliament elections.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 20,574
    AndyJS said:

    "Pc Keith Palmer was let down by a police chief not brave enough to help save him

    Allison Pearson"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/life/pc-keith-palmer-let-police-chief-not-brave-enough-help-save/

    That's a little harsh, but there is a problem whereby police officers are taught to follow regulations rather than intervening to protect public safety as their top priority.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 17,393
    Danny565 said:

    "All show LAB still in third place north of the border the part of the UK where they were totally dominant. This all changed, of course, the post September 2014 SNP surge following the IndyRef"

    This is a bit of a Westminster-centric view.

    - The SNP won the 2007 Holyrood election, by fractions
    - The 2007 local elections in Scotland were effectively a tie (SNP won most seats, Labour most votes)
    - The SNP won the 2009 European election, by 29 to 20 per cent
    - The SNP won the 2011 Holyrood election in 2011 with 44% to Labour's 26%;
    - The SNP won the 2012 local elections, albeit by nothing like as much;
    - The SNP won the 2014 European election by 29% to 26%.

    The reality is that, other than the 2010 UK general election, Labour's dominance had long gone. What the referendum did was turn what had previously been a one-off, in the 2011 Holyrood election - a big SNP lead and share - into the new norm.

    You can go back even further than 2007, and find a Labour "overperformance" in Westminster elections, compared to all other Scottish elections.

    From the early 1990s right through to Indyref1, there seemed to be a section of voters who voted Labour in UK general elections, but voted SNP for everything else: the SNP also performed better in the 1999 and 2003 Holyrood elections than they did for Westminster. Even in the mid-90s, Labour ran utterly rampant across the UK in the 1994 European elections, but the SNP ran them quite close in Scotland. Then the referendum happened and it converted that chunk of SNP sympathisers into SNP Westminster voters for the first time.

    The question is whether 2017 showed that that chunk of "Labour for Westminster, SNP elsewhere" is returning. My guess is that it is a little bit, and that Labour could gain 5-10 extra Westminster seats from the SNP next time, but that the SNP should stay fairly comfortable in Scottish Parliament elections.
    That is not the mood of the Scots
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 9,099
    No WTO wtf?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,420
    The other thing worth noting about the US is that the new NAFTA agreement blocks Mexico and Canada from having an FTA with China.

    You can either have a free trade agreement with the US or with China, but not with both.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 17,393
    Jonathan said:

    No WTO wtf?
    Just gets more surreal day by day
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 5,646
    edited October 9

    felix said:

    Justin24 will ba along soon to tell us how his bones see big gains for SLab at the expense of both the SCons and the SNats. All polling can therefore be ignored till it agree with him.

    The only way to respect the Scots is to grant them extensive devolution

    Surely most Scots are now in England and Wales or overseas, not in Scotland?

    So devolution is irrelevant to them.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 17,393

    felix said:

    Justin24 will ba along soon to tell us how his bones see big gains for SLab at the expense of both the SCons and the SNats. All polling can therefore be ignored till it agree with him.

    The only way to respect the Scots is to grant them extensive devolution

    Surely most Scots are now in England and Wales or overseas, not in Scotland?

    So devolution is irrelevant to them.
    It is not irrelevant to Nicola or Ruth
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 17,393
    HYUFD said:
    I read that some time ago
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 5,646
    edited October 9

    For Britain to win Russia has to lose - and it's losing.
  • notmenotme Posts: 2,850
    Wow. Surrounded by madness. What does it have to do with Brexit?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,102
    Little change overall at Westminster on GE17 though at Holyrood the Tories have made gains in the polls.

    As long as the SNP win most seats in Scotland that means the Tories likely won most seats across the UK and Labour would need close to a 10% lead for an majority
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,102
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Here's a great resource for the midterms: https://0ptimus.decisiondeskhq.com

    Hard to disagree on the Senate predictions. The Dems have an awfully difficult task.

    The interesting question to me is whether the upsurge in Republican enthusiasm we're seeing due to the Kavanagh nomination farce will flow into real votes in the House of Representatives. My gut says it's probably bought them a couple of percent, but I'd reckon the Dems are still narrow favourites (given how gerrymandered it is).
    Though Kavanaugh's appointment will also likely increase female Democratic turnout
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,496
    Anyway, I must be off. Do be nice to one another, comrades.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,102

    The Scots don't want Independence but want the SNP.

    Hurrah for split ticketing.

    Someone fire up the KLAXON.

    That hits the nail on the head.

    I could vote SNP in Scotland but no to independence. Indeed there are many SNP supporters with the same view
    Except if No Deal with the EU, then polls show Yes could get over 50%
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 5,646
    rcs1000 said:

    The other thing worth noting about the US is that the new NAFTA agreement blocks Mexico and Canada from having an FTA with China.

    You can either have a free trade agreement with the US or with China, but not with both.
    Wrong. The NAFTA agreement blocks Mexico and Canada from having a free trade agreement with any country that does not have a free market. The UK has a free market.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,534

    A bit of background from the Nats favourite columnist:

    This might seem an opportune time for Scottish Labour to make a fresh start with the voters by talking about the issues that matter to them. That is, after all, why members chose Richard Leonard as leader 11 months ago. He was a break from the leadership class defined by the acrimonious politics of 2014. Leonard, his partisans argued, could take Labour back to its roots.

    In that sense, he has proved a sterling success. In its heyday, Scottish Labour was home to so many internecine grudges and bloody vendettas that John Smith House could have doubled as the Corleone family mansion.

    Now, the factions and in-fighting are back. Don Leonardo isn’t the most impressive of godfathers — every time he gives a speech, he makes the voters an offer they can’t remember — but this mild-mannered union fixer has done more to undermine unity within Scottish Labour than their political opponents. Leonard should be required to register his leadership as an in-kind donation to the SNP.


    https://stephendaisley.com/2018/10/08/richard-leonard-is-turning-scottish-labour-into-corbynism-with-a-kilt/

    LOL, Leonard cannot even remember who he is, his performance so far is lamentable , he makes Dugdale look good.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 9,099
    Don’t count on Putins White House helping us with Brexit
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 345
    Jonathan said:

    No WTO wtf?
    If true this is the death of Brexit
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 17,393
    HYUFD said:

    The Scots don't want Independence but want the SNP.

    Hurrah for split ticketing.

    Someone fire up the KLAXON.

    That hits the nail on the head.

    I could vote SNP in Scotland but no to independence. Indeed there are many SNP supporters with the same view
    Except if No Deal with the EU, then polls show Yes could get over 50%
    Some people do not endow opinion polls with the deity you do
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,534

    Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP, and Brexit have seen off Scot labour.

    Labour have nothing to say to the Scots that the SNP are not already doing and the Scon lead by Ruth Davidson are the pro union party.

    It does not help for an Englishman to be leader of Scot labour either.

    G, fact he is English has no bearing , it is fact he is rubbish that is the issue.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,134
    M26 to be closed in both directions from mid November until Brexit day...

    http://www.kenttraffic.info/?sid=KCC181008_29&E=555849&N=158109&lyt=planned
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 17,393
    Fenman said:

    Jonathan said:

    No WTO wtf?
    If true this is the death of Brexit
    Death of ERG arguments
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,534

    felix said:

    Justin24 will ba along soon to tell us how his bones see big gains for SLab at the expense of both the SCons and the SNats. All polling can therefore be ignored till it agree with him.

    The only way to respect the Scots is to grant them extensive devolution

    Surely most Scots are now in England and Wales or overseas, not in Scotland?

    So devolution is irrelevant to them.
    Only 5 million of us left
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 5,646
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Here's a great resource for the midterms: https://0ptimus.decisiondeskhq.com

    Hard to disagree on the Senate predictions. The Dems have an awfully difficult task.

    The interesting question to me is whether the upsurge in Republican enthusiasm we're seeing due to the Kavanagh nomination farce will flow into real votes in the House of Representatives. My gut says it's probably bought them a couple of percent, but I'd reckon the Dems are still narrow favourites (given how gerrymandered it is).
    Though Kavanaugh's appointment will also likely increase female Democratic turnout
    Are women suscepible to believing in mob rule then?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 17,393
    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    Justin24 will ba along soon to tell us how his bones see big gains for SLab at the expense of both the SCons and the SNats. All polling can therefore be ignored till it agree with him.

    The only way to respect the Scots is to grant them extensive devolution

    Surely most Scots are now in England and Wales or overseas, not in Scotland?

    So devolution is irrelevant to them.
    Only 5 million of us left
    Living in Gods own Country
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 17,393
    malcolmg said:

    Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP, and Brexit have seen off Scot labour.

    Labour have nothing to say to the Scots that the SNP are not already doing and the Scon lead by Ruth Davidson are the pro union party.

    It does not help for an Englishman to be leader of Scot labour either.

    G, fact he is English has no bearing , it is fact he is rubbish that is the issue.
    Maybe both
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 5,646
    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    Justin24 will ba along soon to tell us how his bones see big gains for SLab at the expense of both the SCons and the SNats. All polling can therefore be ignored till it agree with him.

    The only way to respect the Scots is to grant them extensive devolution

    Surely most Scots are now in England and Wales or overseas, not in Scotland?

    So devolution is irrelevant to them.
    Only 5 million of us left
    How many of those are English or other non Scot?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 17,393

    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    Justin24 will ba along soon to tell us how his bones see big gains for SLab at the expense of both the SCons and the SNats. All polling can therefore be ignored till it agree with him.

    The only way to respect the Scots is to grant them extensive devolution

    Surely most Scots are now in England and Wales or overseas, not in Scotland?

    So devolution is irrelevant to them.
    Only 5 million of us left
    How many of those are English or other non Scot?
    Why
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 5,646

    M26 to be closed in both directions from mid November until Brexit day...

    http://www.kenttraffic.info/?sid=KCC181008_29&E=555849&N=158109&lyt=planned


    That's one way to get some extra lanes on your local motorway.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,102

    HYUFD said:

    The Scots don't want Independence but want the SNP.

    Hurrah for split ticketing.

    Someone fire up the KLAXON.

    That hits the nail on the head.

    I could vote SNP in Scotland but no to independence. Indeed there are many SNP supporters with the same view
    Except if No Deal with the EU, then polls show Yes could get over 50%
    Some people do not endow opinion polls with the deity you do
    I said 'could' get over 50% not certain too.

    Survation had Yes on 52% with No Deal on Sunday, Panelbase had Yes on 48% with No Deal
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 5,646

    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    Justin24 will ba along soon to tell us how his bones see big gains for SLab at the expense of both the SCons and the SNats. All polling can therefore be ignored till it agree with him.

    The only way to respect the Scots is to grant them extensive devolution

    Surely most Scots are now in England and Wales or overseas, not in Scotland?

    So devolution is irrelevant to them.
    Only 5 million of us left
    How many of those are English or other non Scot?
    Why
    Because some of the people living in Scotland are not Scots and they have rights too.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,102

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Here's a great resource for the midterms: https://0ptimus.decisiondeskhq.com

    Hard to disagree on the Senate predictions. The Dems have an awfully difficult task.

    The interesting question to me is whether the upsurge in Republican enthusiasm we're seeing due to the Kavanagh nomination farce will flow into real votes in the House of Representatives. My gut says it's probably bought them a couple of percent, but I'd reckon the Dems are still narrow favourites (given how gerrymandered it is).
    Though Kavanaugh's appointment will also likely increase female Democratic turnout
    Are women suscepible to believing in mob rule then?
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/08/16/politics/cnn-poll-kavanaugh-confirmation/index.html
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 17,393

    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    Justin24 will ba along soon to tell us how his bones see big gains for SLab at the expense of both the SCons and the SNats. All polling can therefore be ignored till it agree with him.

    The only way to respect the Scots is to grant them extensive devolution

    Surely most Scots are now in England and Wales or overseas, not in Scotland?

    So devolution is irrelevant to them.
    Only 5 million of us left
    How many of those are English or other non Scot?
    Why
    Because some of the people living in Scotland are not Scots and they have rights too.
    Of course they do and many will be SNP members
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,534

    Mr. NorthWales, it does seem, from the outside, reminiscent of the falling between two stools situation (if you want the union, go blue, if you want to separate, go SNP).

    How does your family want things to proceed? Is their desire to influence the UK proposals or for divergence for Scotland?

    MD , difference is most hate the Tories with a vengence and would slit their throats first
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,420
    Fenman said:

    Jonathan said:

    No WTO wtf?
    If true this is the death of Brexit
    There are three fundamental problems with the US as a trading partner right now.

    Firstly, President Trump is simply not a fan of free trade. To his mind, when you and I enter into a voluntary agreement to exchange goods or services for money - well, there's one winner and one loser.

    Secondly, existing agreements mean nothing. Like contracts with subcontractors, they are things to be torn up if you gain a momentary advantage. Treaty says you can't impose tariffs on country with which you have agreement? F*ck it.

    Thirdly, and most fundamentally, other countries are either subordinate to the US, or a threat to it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 17,393
    malcolmg said:

    Mr. NorthWales, it does seem, from the outside, reminiscent of the falling between two stools situation (if you want the union, go blue, if you want to separate, go SNP).

    How does your family want things to proceed? Is their desire to influence the UK proposals or for divergence for Scotland?

    MD , difference is most hate the Tories with a vengence and would slit their throats first
    They dont want to do that to me I hope.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,534

    felix said:

    Justin24 will ba along soon to tell us how his bones see big gains for SLab at the expense of both the SCons and the SNats. All polling can therefore be ignored till it agree with him.

    The only way to respect the Scots is to grant them extensive devolution

    G, they had a chance to do that but renaged on all their promises , only complete fools will believe the lies next time
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 5,463
    edited October 9

    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    Justin24 will ba along soon to tell us how his bones see big gains for SLab at the expense of both the SCons and the SNats. All polling can therefore be ignored till it agree with him.

    The only way to respect the Scots is to grant them extensive devolution

    Surely most Scots are now in England and Wales or overseas, not in Scotland?

    So devolution is irrelevant to them.
    Only 5 million of us left
    How many of those are English or other non Scot?
    Why
    Because some of the people living in Scotland are not Scots and they have rights too.
    The SNP have a concept of civic nationalism which allows English people living in Scotland, like myself, to be considered Scottish for the purposes of voting the right way in any Independence referendum and paying taxes subsequently.

    What malcolmg makes of it I don't know.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,134
    rcs1000 said:

    Thirdly, and most fundamentally, other countries are either subordinate to the US, or a threat to it.

    Or Russia.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,534

    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    Justin24 will ba along soon to tell us how his bones see big gains for SLab at the expense of both the SCons and the SNats. All polling can therefore be ignored till it agree with him.

    The only way to respect the Scots is to grant them extensive devolution

    Surely most Scots are now in England and Wales or overseas, not in Scotland?

    So devolution is irrelevant to them.
    Only 5 million of us left
    How many of those are English or other non Scot?
    Why
    Because some of the people living in Scotland are not Scots and they have rights too.
    Of course they do and many will be SNP members
    There are many English SNP members
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,311
    I have put the latest GB polls and the three latest Scottish polls into the EMA and used Electoral Calculus with the Scottish submodel to estimate the number of seats on current polling -and the answer is - static:

    con 302 seats
    lab 269 seats
    LD 17 seats
    SNP 40 seats
    UKIP 0 seats
    PC 3 seats
    Green 1 seat
    NI 18 seats

    Tories 24 short of a majority. Probably minority Lab government.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,534

    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    Justin24 will ba along soon to tell us how his bones see big gains for SLab at the expense of both the SCons and the SNats. All polling can therefore be ignored till it agree with him.

    The only way to respect the Scots is to grant them extensive devolution

    Surely most Scots are now in England and Wales or overseas, not in Scotland?

    So devolution is irrelevant to them.
    Only 5 million of us left
    How many of those are English or other non Scot?
    Why
    Because some of the people living in Scotland are not Scots and they have rights too.
    The SNP have a concept of civic nationalism which allows English people living in Scotland, like myself, to be considered Scottish for the purposes of voting the right way in any Independence referendum and paying taxes subsequently.

    What malcolmg makes of it I don't know.
    I am all for it , if you are living in Scotland you should have same vote as any other person , born there or not. If you live there you are Scottish.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,534

    malcolmg said:

    Mr. NorthWales, it does seem, from the outside, reminiscent of the falling between two stools situation (if you want the union, go blue, if you want to separate, go SNP).

    How does your family want things to proceed? Is their desire to influence the UK proposals or for divergence for Scotland?

    MD , difference is most hate the Tories with a vengence and would slit their throats first
    They dont want to do that to me I hope.
    I meant their own throats G, even so I am sure you would be an exception in any case
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 17,393
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    Justin24 will ba along soon to tell us how his bones see big gains for SLab at the expense of both the SCons and the SNats. All polling can therefore be ignored till it agree with him.

    The only way to respect the Scots is to grant them extensive devolution

    Surely most Scots are now in England and Wales or overseas, not in Scotland?

    So devolution is irrelevant to them.
    Only 5 million of us left
    How many of those are English or other non Scot?
    Why
    Because some of the people living in Scotland are not Scots and they have rights too.
    Of course they do and many will be SNP members
    There are many English SNP members
    I would be SNP in Scotland but pro Union

    Just heard the Welsh government saying they will not prevent 12% council tax rises next year. That and monthly bin collections all courtesy of Welsh labour
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,534

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    Justin24 will ba along soon to tell us how his bones see big gains for SLab at the expense of both the SCons and the SNats. All polling can therefore be ignored till it agree with him.

    The only way to respect the Scots is to grant them extensive devolution

    Surely most Scots are now in England and Wales or overseas, not in Scotland?

    So devolution is irrelevant to them.
    Only 5 million of us left
    How many of those are English or other non Scot?
    Why
    Because some of the people living in Scotland are not Scots and they have rights too.
    Of course they do and many will be SNP members
    There are many English SNP members
    I would be SNP in Scotland but pro Union

    Just heard the Welsh government saying they will not prevent 12% council tax rises next year. That and monthly bin collections all courtesy of Welsh labour
    Labour have completely lost the plot , totally useless.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 17,393
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    Justin24 will ba along soon to tell us how his bones see big gains for SLab at the expense of both the SCons and the SNats. All polling can therefore be ignored till it agree with him.

    The only way to respect the Scots is to grant them extensive devolution

    Surely most Scots are now in England and Wales or overseas, not in Scotland?

    So devolution is irrelevant to them.
    Only 5 million of us left
    How many of those are English or other non Scot?
    Why
    Because some of the people living in Scotland are not Scots and they have rights too.
    The SNP have a concept of civic nationalism which allows English people living in Scotland, like myself, to be considered Scottish for the purposes of voting the right way in any Independence referendum and paying taxes subsequently.

    What malcolmg makes of it I don't know.
    I am all for it , if you are living in Scotland you should have same vote as any other person , born there or not. If you live there you are Scottish.
    Not quite.

    When I lived in Scotland I was half welsh, half english but got over the problem by marrying a Scots lass
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 17,393
    Barnesian said:

    I have put the latest GB polls and the three latest Scottish polls into the EMA and used Electoral Calculus with the Scottish submodel to estimate the number of seats on current polling -and the answer is - static:

    con 302 seats
    lab 269 seats
    LD 17 seats
    SNP 40 seats
    UKIP 0 seats
    PC 3 seats
    Green 1 seat
    NI 18 seats

    Tories 24 short of a majority. Probably minority Lab government.

    Would not last with Corbyn
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,311

    Barnesian said:

    I have put the latest GB polls and the three latest Scottish polls into the EMA and used Electoral Calculus with the Scottish submodel to estimate the number of seats on current polling -and the answer is - static:

    con 302 seats
    lab 269 seats
    LD 17 seats
    SNP 40 seats
    UKIP 0 seats
    PC 3 seats
    Green 1 seat
    NI 18 seats

    Tories 24 short of a majority. Probably minority Lab government.

    Would not last with Corbyn
    Why not?
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,189

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Here's a great resource for the midterms: https://0ptimus.decisiondeskhq.com

    Hard to disagree on the Senate predictions. The Dems have an awfully difficult task.

    The interesting question to me is whether the upsurge in Republican enthusiasm we're seeing due to the Kavanagh nomination farce will flow into real votes in the House of Representatives. My gut says it's probably bought them a couple of percent, but I'd reckon the Dems are still narrow favourites (given how gerrymandered it is).
    Though Kavanaugh's appointment will also likely increase female Democratic turnout
    Are women suscepible to believing in mob rule then?
    mob rule is in the ascendancy.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,935

    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    Justin24 will ba along soon to tell us how his bones see big gains for SLab at the expense of both the SCons and the SNats. All polling can therefore be ignored till it agree with him.

    The only way to respect the Scots is to grant them extensive devolution

    Surely most Scots are now in England and Wales or overseas, not in Scotland?

    So devolution is irrelevant to them.
    Only 5 million of us left
    How many of those are English or other non Scot?
    Why
    Because some of the people living in Scotland are not Scots and they have rights too.
    The SNP have a concept of civic nationalism which allows English people living in Scotland, like myself, to be considered Scottish for the purposes of voting the right way in any Independence referendum and paying taxes subsequently.

    What malcolmg makes of it I don't know.
    There was no stranger sight than leading up to the IndyRef2 and seeing Scots living in England holding the simultaneous views
    1) The SNP are Nazis and must be stopped, nationalism is disgusting
    2) As a pure blood Scot it is outrageous I do not have a vote in the SindyRef.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,579

    rcs1000 said:

    The other thing worth noting about the US is that the new NAFTA agreement blocks Mexico and Canada from having an FTA with China.

    You can either have a free trade agreement with the US or with China, but not with both.
    Wrong. The NAFTA agreement blocks Mexico and Canada from having a free trade agreement with any country that does not have a free market. The UK has a free market.
    Interesting. Who determines what is or isn't a "free market?" Almost every country has a mixed economy, what is the threshold?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,102
    edited October 9
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Here's a great resource for the midterms: https://0ptimus.decisiondeskhq.com

    Hard to disagree on the Senate predictions. The Dems have an awfully difficult task.

    The interesting question to me is whether the upsurge in Republican enthusiasm we're seeing due to the Kavanagh nomination farce will flow into real votes in the House of Representatives. My gut says it's probably bought them a couple of percent, but I'd reckon the Dems are still narrow favourites (given how gerrymandered it is).
    Though Kavanaugh's appointment will also likely increase female Democratic turnout
    Are women suscepible to believing in mob rule then?
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/08/16/politics/cnn-poll-kavanaugh-confirmation/index.html
    CNN today has 63% of women saying they will vote for the Democratic candidate in the midterms after Kavanaugh's appointment

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Taniel/status/1049706557074747392
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,134

    rcs1000 said:

    The other thing worth noting about the US is that the new NAFTA agreement blocks Mexico and Canada from having an FTA with China.

    You can either have a free trade agreement with the US or with China, but not with both.
    Wrong. The NAFTA agreement blocks Mexico and Canada from having a free trade agreement with any country that does not have a free market. The UK has a free market.
    Read the comment you're replying to again.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 3,255

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    Justin24 will ba along soon to tell us how his bones see big gains for SLab at the expense of both the SCons and the SNats. All polling can therefore be ignored till it agree with him.

    The only way to respect the Scots is to grant them extensive devolution

    Surely most Scots are now in England and Wales or overseas, not in Scotland?

    So devolution is irrelevant to them.
    Only 5 million of us left
    How many of those are English or other non Scot?
    Why
    Because some of the people living in Scotland are not Scots and they have rights too.
    Of course they do and many will be SNP members
    There are many English SNP members
    I would be SNP in Scotland but pro Union

    Just heard the Welsh government saying they will not prevent 12% council tax rises next year. That and monthly bin collections all courtesy of Welsh labour
    Why would you be SNP rather than backing Ruth’s Scottish Conservatives? Apologies if I’m missing something.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,311
    Homo Sapiens beat the Neanderthals, not because we were stronger, (we weren't) but because we cooperated better as a species in joint defence, shared development of tools etc.

    Our standard of living today is based on this cooperation - provision of health, education, defence, infrastructure and development of science and technology. Competition is a small tactical component.

    But in the West, there is a massive move to personal selfishness and competition. It is not only financial selfishness (lower taxes and poorer public services) but competition to be the more perfect human being showing off our toned bodies and perfect features on Instagram.

    We are going to be swamped and overtaken by the East who are more collective - unless we wake up and stop the zero-sum games. We in the West are in danger of being the new Neanderthals.

  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,491
    This is because they are not stupid. 'Regulatory' checks cannot be 'de-dramatised' - they are reflections of a legal reality. The legal reality will be that NI will be in a completely different regulatory environment than GB, ruled by Brussels. Goods from GB may not be imported into NI without complying with EU regulations which will eliminate 'frictionless trade' within the UK. It is a complete nonsense and they are quite right to reject it.

    You can't fudge a customs union, or two different regulatory systems.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,102
    edited October 9
    Barnesian said:

    I have put the latest GB polls and the three latest Scottish polls into the EMA and used Electoral Calculus with the Scottish submodel to estimate the number of seats on current polling -and the answer is - static:

    con 302 seats
    lab 269 seats
    LD 17 seats
    SNP 40 seats
    UKIP 0 seats
    PC 3 seats
    Green 1 seat
    NI 18 seats

    Tories 24 short of a majority. Probably minority Lab government.

    Labour needs SNP plus LDs plus PC plus Greens for Corbyn to become PM on those numbers and have a majority of MPs behind him in Parliament
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,311
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    I have put the latest GB polls and the three latest Scottish polls into the EMA and used Electoral Calculus with the Scottish submodel to estimate the number of seats on current polling -and the answer is - static:

    con 302 seats
    lab 269 seats
    LD 17 seats
    SNP 40 seats
    UKIP 0 seats
    PC 3 seats
    Green 1 seat
    NI 18 seats

    Tories 24 short of a majority. Probably minority Lab government.

    Labour needs SNP plus LDs plus PC plus Greens for Corbyn to become PM on those numbers and have a majority of MPs behind him in Parliament
    The Tories would have 312 including the DUP. Labour need more than that to survive a vote of no confidence. SNP plus PC plus Green would give them 313 plus a few NI. As long as the LDs abstained, Lab would survive but it would be very thin. In practice I suspect the LD would a DUP style S&C and hold Labour to policies that the LD support.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,102

    This is because they are not stupid. 'Regulatory' checks cannot be 'de-dramatised' - they are reflections of a legal reality. The legal reality will be that NI will be in a completely different regulatory environment than GB, ruled by Brussels. Goods from GB may not be imported into NI without complying with EU regulations which will eliminate 'frictionless trade' within the UK. It is a complete nonsense and they are quite right to reject it.

    You can't fudge a customs union, or two different regulatory systems.
    Notice Dodds does not oppose the whole UK staying in the Customs Union as May is proposing, just the latest proposition on regulatory checks in GB from the ERG
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,420
    edited October 9

    rcs1000 said:

    The other thing worth noting about the US is that the new NAFTA agreement blocks Mexico and Canada from having an FTA with China.

    You can either have a free trade agreement with the US or with China, but not with both.
    Wrong. The NAFTA agreement blocks Mexico and Canada from having a free trade agreement with any country that does not have a free market. The UK has a free market.
    Errr. Yes.

    That's exactly what I said.

    So, if the UK had an FTA with the US, it would not be able to have one with China.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,102
    edited October 9
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    I have put the latest GB polls and the three latest Scottish polls into the EMA and used Electoral Calculus with the Scottish submodel to estimate the number of seats on current polling -and the answer is - static:

    con 302 seats
    lab 269 seats
    LD 17 seats
    SNP 40 seats
    UKIP 0 seats
    PC 3 seats
    Green 1 seat
    NI 18 seats

    Tories 24 short of a majority. Probably minority Lab government.

    Labour needs SNP plus LDs plus PC plus Greens for Corbyn to become PM on those numbers and have a majority of MPs behind him in Parliament
    The Tories would have 312 including the DUP. Labour need more than that to survive a vote of no confidence. SNP plus PC plus Green would give them 313 plus a few NI. As long as the LDs abstained, Lab would survive but it would be very thin. In practice I suspect the LD would a DUP style S&C and hold Labour to policies that the LD support.
    Indeed Corbyn would have to run every single piece of government legislation past Vince Cable first to get it through the Commons
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,420
    Coming back to the US rule on Canada and Mexico not having an FTA with China, it occurs to me that this makes technology transfer to China more, rather than less, likely.

    Why?

    Because firms set up local subsidiaries and transfer technology to them to circumvent tariffs. It's too complicated to have your key component built in California shipped to China (incurring tariffs) and then shipped back again (getting slapped with tariffs on tariffs).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,420
    Barnesian said:

    Homo Sapiens beat the Neanderthals, not because we were stronger, (we weren't) but because we cooperated better as a species in joint defence, shared development of tools etc.

    Our standard of living today is based on this cooperation - provision of health, education, defence, infrastructure and development of science and technology. Competition is a small tactical component.

    But in the West, there is a massive move to personal selfishness and competition. It is not only financial selfishness (lower taxes and poorer public services) but competition to be the more perfect human being showing off our toned bodies and perfect features on Instagram.

    We are going to be swamped and overtaken by the East who are more collective - unless we wake up and stop the zero-sum games. We in the West are in danger of being the new Neanderthals.

    Have you been reading Blindside again?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 1,450

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Here's a great resource for the midterms: https://0ptimus.decisiondeskhq.com

    Hard to disagree on the Senate predictions. The Dems have an awfully difficult task.

    The interesting question to me is whether the upsurge in Republican enthusiasm we're seeing due to the Kavanagh nomination farce will flow into real votes in the House of Representatives. My gut says it's probably bought them a couple of percent, but I'd reckon the Dems are still narrow favourites (given how gerrymandered it is).
    Though Kavanaugh's appointment will also likely increase female Democratic turnout
    Are women suscepible to believing in mob rule then?
    Is that what we call voting now?
This discussion has been closed.