Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Not really her MO.
No, but she simply does not have as much wriggle room as the EU seem to think she does (whether the EU should or would reasonably wriggle more is neither here nor there, in that they at least could if they wanted to), and there's little point in her agreeing to something which she has zero chance of getting through parliament. She was already struggling to do so. Maybe she'll break off negotiations, maybe she'll resign, but she cannot keep kicking the can and bringing any old nonsense back is pointless.
She'll keep kicking that can until she's dragged away
It cannot be kicked beyond next March - we are out with a no deal unless we actively stop it
Yep, November or December really seem like they must be the hard limit
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Thereby achieving what exactly?
Not much, but as nothing would have been achieved anyway, there would be no negative impact either, and the ball would be in parliament's hands to decide what to do next.
If so..... She should resign. She had one job. She failed.
And then what
General Election probably. Remember this is your preferred scenario. ;-)
On the EU issue. I think most people just want it to be done and move on, and aren't 'particularly' concerned about the details.
Both the DUP and the ERG seem hell bent on creating the conditions that the entire concept of Brexit is being put at risk. It wouldn't take too much more for the public to think staying it might soon be the easier option.
The polls are clear, voters comfortably prefer Remain to No Deal. Only Norway or Canada style Brexit's have net positives. If No Deal is the alternative to Remain by the end of November Brexit could be reversed in EU ref2 before the Brexit due date at the end of March
Indeed. Everything is against 'No Deal'/Hard Brexit. The current government, MP's as a whole, the Opposition and the public as well.
The only ones holding out are purists, and they can't win. The numbers across the board aren't there.
No, the numbers are not there. But a no deal Brexit is now baked in to the victorious sponge. Unless something else is approved by both EU and UK before March 29 no deal will happen automatically. And it is not clear that the EU, the U.K. and (more particularly) a majority in the HoC will be able to agree on what "something else" will be.
More likely there will be EUref2 or another general election before March if No Deal looks likely by the end of November and either Remain wins a new referendum or Corbyn becomes PM leading a minority government reliant on the SNP and LDs.
How do we get to a second referendum. I am not disagreeing but how do you explain the process, including timing and as important the questions.
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Not really her MO.
No, but she simply does not have as much wriggle room as the EU seem to think she does (whether the EU should or would reasonably wriggle more is neither here nor there, in that they at least could if they wanted to), and there's little point in her agreeing to something which she has zero chance of getting through parliament. She was already struggling to do so. Maybe she'll break off negotiations, maybe she'll resign, but she cannot keep kicking the can and bringing any old nonsense back is pointless.
She'll keep kicking that can until she's dragged away
It cannot be kicked beyond next March - we are out with a no deal unless we actively stop it
Yep, November or December really seem like they must be the hard limit
And if it just goes on with no deal on the table into next year
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Thereby achieving what exactly?
Not much, but as nothing would have been achieved anyway, there would be no negative impact either, and the ball would be in parliament's hands to decide what to do next.
If so..... She should resign. She had one job. She failed.
Yes, she probably should. If she cannot get a deal to Parliament then Parliament can try to find someone who can. Or options like referendum or GE will need to be discussed.
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Not really her MO.
No, but she simply does not have as much wriggle room as the EU seem to think she does (whether the EU should or would reasonably wriggle more is neither here nor there, in that they at least could if they wanted to), and there's little point in her agreeing to something which she has zero chance of getting through parliament. She was already struggling to do so. Maybe she'll break off negotiations, maybe she'll resign, but she cannot keep kicking the can and bringing any old nonsense back is pointless.
She'll keep kicking that can until she's dragged away
The amount of time to kick the can is not within her power to set.
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Thereby achieving what exactly?
Not much, but as nothing would have been achieved anyway, there would be no negative impact either, and the ball would be in parliament's hands to decide what to do next.
If so..... She should resign. She had one job. She failed.
And then what
General Election probably. Remember this is your preferred scenario. ;-)
Where did you get that from.
At no time have I expressed a wish for a GE
And those hoping for a GE have no way of explaining how we arrive at one and how would labour commit in a manifesto
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Not really her MO.
No, but she simply does not have as much wriggle room as the EU seem to think she does (whether the EU should or would reasonably wriggle more is neither here nor there, in that they at least could if they wanted to), and there's little point in her agreeing to something which she has zero chance of getting through parliament. She was already struggling to do so. Maybe she'll break off negotiations, maybe she'll resign, but she cannot keep kicking the can and bringing any old nonsense back is pointless.
She'll keep kicking that can until she's dragged away
The amount of time to kick the can is not within her power to set.
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Thereby achieving what exactly?
Not much, but as nothing would have been achieved anyway, there would be no negative impact either, and the ball would be in parliament's hands to decide what to do next.
If so..... She should resign. She had one job. She failed.
Yes, she probably should. If she cannot get a deal to Parliament then Parliament can try to find someone who can. Or options like referendum or GE will need to be discussed.
In a deadlocked Parliament and who do you suggest would be any better than TM with this poisoned chalice
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Thereby achieving what exactly?
Not much, but as nothing would have been achieved anyway, there would be no negative impact either, and the ball would be in parliament's hands to decide what to do next.
If so..... She should resign. She had one job. She failed.
And then what
General Election probably. Remember this is your preferred scenario. ;-)
Where did you get that from.
At no time have I expressed a wish for a GE
And those hoping for a GE have no way of explaining how we arrive at one and how would labour commit in a manifesto
You recommended she flounced from the negotiations , we’re just working that scenario through.
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Thereby achieving what exactly?
Not much, but as nothing would have been achieved anyway, there would be no negative impact either, and the ball would be in parliament's hands to decide what to do next.
If so..... She should resign. She had one job. She failed.
And then what
General Election probably. Remember this is your preferred scenario. ;-)
Where did you get that from.
At no time have I expressed a wish for a GE
And those hoping for a GE have no way of explaining how we arrive at one and how would labour commit in a manifesto
You recommended she flounced from the negotiations , we’re just working that scenario through.
You again use emotive words like flounced.
Would a male PM 'flounce' out or would he terminate negotiations.
These were my words for avoidance of doubt:
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Not really her MO.
No, but she simply does not have as much wriggle room as the EU seem to think she does (whether the EU should or would reasonably wriggle more is neither here nor there, in that they at least could if they wanted to), and there's little point in her agreeing to something which she has zero chance of getting through parliament. She was already struggling to do so. Maybe she'll break off negotiations, maybe she'll resign, but she cannot keep kicking the can and bringing any old nonsense back is pointless.
She'll keep kicking that can until she's dragged away
The amount of time to kick the can is not within her power to set.
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Thereby achieving what exactly?
Not much, but as nothing would have been achieved anyway, there would be no negative impact either, and the ball would be in parliament's hands to decide what to do next.
If so..... She should resign. She had one job. She failed.
Yes, she probably should. If she cannot get a deal to Parliament then Parliament can try to find someone who can. Or options like referendum or GE will need to be discussed.
In a deadlocked Parliament and who do you suggest would be any better than TM with this poisoned chalice
I don't think there is. I would like there to be a deal that could get through parliament but I cannot see one. That's why I assume a referendum or a GE will open up as an option, because I don't think anyone can get something through parliament without one (frankly not sure even then).
TM “People need to know that the austerity is over and that their hard work has paid off,” Theresa May.
LK Remember May’s claim last week was really about easing off on cuts in spending review next year - not about Budget in a few weeks time
HPJ Dodges (parody) Totally agree Laura, it baffles me that the corbynista's think May saying "Austerity is over" could be interpreted as meaning "there will be no austerity measures in the next budget". A review next year to ascertain the possibility of easing off on cuts at some point in the future is really exciting.
I think IF we had a new GE in November or December, the Conservatives would win a small but workable majority on a strong anti-EU ticket.
Whether that would in any way impact the EU is less clear - it might encourage a deal given the DUP would be irrelevant or it might embolden those who argue for No Deal.
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Not really her MO.
No, but she simply does not have as much wriggle room as the EU seem to think she does (whether the EU should or would reasonably wriggle more is neither here nor there, in that they at least could if they wanted to), and there's little point in her agreeing to something which she has zero chance of getting through parliament. She was already struggling to do so. Maybe she'll break off negotiations, maybe she'll resign, but she cannot keep kicking the can and bringing any old nonsense back is pointless.
She'll keep kicking that can until she's dragged away
The amount of time to kick the can is not within her power to set.
But she can ask for an extension to Article 50.
I suspect that would be an option for any successor to try.
On the EU issue. I think most people just want it to be done and move on, and aren't 'particularly' concerned about the details.
Both the DUP and the ERG seem hell bent on creating the conditions that the entire concept of Brexit is being put at risk. It wouldn't take too much more for the public to think staying it might soon be the easier option.
The polls are clear, voters comfortably prefer Remain to No Deal. Only Norway or Canada style Brexit's have net positives. If No Deal is the alternative to Remain by the end of November Brexit could be reversed in EU ref2 before the Brexit due date at the end of March
Indeed. Everything is against 'No Deal'/Hard Brexit. The current government, MP's as a whole, the Opposition and the public as well.
The only ones holding out are purists, and they can't win. The numbers across the board aren't there.
No, the numbers are not there. But a no deal Brexit is now baked in to the victorious sponge. Unless something else is approved by both EU and UK before March 29 no deal will happen automatically. And it is not clear that the EU, the U.K. and (more particularly) a majority in the HoC will be able to agree on what "something else" will be.
More likely there will be EUref2 or another general election before March if No Deal looks likely by the end of November and either Remain wins a new referendum or Corbyn becomes PM leading a minority government reliant on the SNP and LDs.
How do we get to a second referendum. I am not disagreeing but how do you explain the process, including timing and as important the questions.
Given the SNP has backed a second EU referendum and the Labour Conference backed a second EU referendum and the LDs back a second EU referendum and Tory MPs like Rudd have backed a second EU referendum if No Deal it is a matter of when not if we get a second one if No Deal and Remain would almost certainly win it. Not one poll has shown No Deal ahead of Remain
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Thereby achieving what exactly?
Not much, but as nothing would have been achieved anyway, there would be no negative impact either, and the ball would be in parliament's hands to decide what to do next.
If so..... She should resign. She had one job. She failed.
Yes, she probably should. If she cannot get a deal to Parliament then Parliament can try to find someone who can. Or options like referendum or GE will need to be discussed.
In a deadlocked Parliament and who do you suggest would be any better than TM with this poisoned chalice
I don't think there is. I would like there to be a deal that could get through parliament but I cannot see one. That's why I assume a referendum or a GE will open up as an option, because I don't think anyone can get something through parliament without one (frankly not sure even then).
We all need to laugh a bit really as your brackets sum everything up don't you think
I think IF we had a new GE in November or December, the Conservatives would win a small but workable majority on a strong anti-EU ticket.
Whether that would in any way impact the EU is less clear - it might encourage a deal given the DUP would be irrelevant or it might embolden those who argue for No Deal.
Not on current polls which give the LDs and SNP the balance of power
On the EU issue. I think most people just want it to be done and move on, and aren't 'particularly' concerned about the details.
Both the DUP and the ERG seem hell bent on creating the conditions that the entire concept of Brexit is being put at risk. It wouldn't take too much more for the public to think staying it might soon be the easier option.
The polls are clear, voters comfortably prefer Remain to No Deal. Only Norway or Canada style Brexit's have net positives. If No Deal is the alternative to Remain by the end of November Brexit could be reversed in EU ref2 before the Brexit due date at the end of March
Indeed. Everything is against 'No Deal'/Hard Brexit. The current government, MP's as a whole, the Opposition and the public as well.
The only ones holding out are purists, and they can't win. The numbers across the board aren't there.
No, the numbers are not there. But a no deal Brexit is now baked in to the victorious sponge. Unless something else is approved by both EU and UK before March 29 no deal will happen automatically. And it is not clear that the EU, the U.K. and (more particularly) a majority in the HoC will be able to agree on what "something else" will be.
More likely there will be EUref2 or another general election before March if No Deal looks likely by the end of November and either Remain wins a new referendum or Corbyn becomes PM leading a minority government reliant on the SNP and LDs.
How do we get to a second referendum. I am not disagreeing but how do you explain the process, including timing and as important the questions.
Given the SNP has backed a second EU referendum and the Labour Conference backed a second EU referendum and the LDs back a second EU referendum and Tory MPs like Rudd have backed a second EU referendum if No Deal it is a matter of when not if we get a second one if No Deal and Remain would almost certainly win it. Not one poll has shown No Deal ahead of Remain
You usually answer the question but you have not answered it other than to say who wants a second referendum. The problem is TM does not
On the EU issue. I think most people just want it to be done and move on, and aren't 'particularly' concerned about the details.
Both the DUP and the ERG seem hell bent on creating the conditions that the entire concept of Brexit is being put at risk. It wouldn't take too much more for the public to think staying it might soon be the easier option.
The polls are clear, voters comfortably prefer Remain to No Deal. Only Norway or Canada style Brexit's have net positives. If No Deal is the alternative to Remain by the end of November Brexit could be reversed in EU ref2 before the Brexit due date at the end of March
Indeed. Everything is against 'No Deal'/Hard Brexit. The current government, MP's as a whole, the Opposition and the public as well.
The only ones holding out are purists, and they can't win. The numbers across the board aren't there.
No, the numbers are not there. But a no deal Brexit is now baked in to the victorious sponge. Unless something else is approved by both EU and UK before March 29 no deal will happen automatically. And it is not clear that the EU, the U.K. and (more particularly) a majority in the HoC will be able to agree on what "something else" will be.
More likely there will be EUref2 or another general election before March if No Deal looks likely by the end of November and either Remain wins a new referendum or Corbyn becomes PM leading a minority government reliant on the SNP and LDs.
How do we get to a second referendum. I am not disagreeing but how do you explain the process, including timing and as important the questions.
May gets to a point where she has something on the table from the EU in the next month. It becomes very clear that she will not have the votes to get it through Parliament. As a GE would probably go ill for the Tories in such a situation, she then gets Parliament to arrange for a referendum, to include no deal and remain options (both needed to get the votes to pass such a referendum act). EU asked to pause process while referendum goes on. Referendum takes place just before end of March
Not easy even then, not least seeing if remainers and ERGs would allow a referendum which included their non preferred option, but possible if May cannot get the votes on whatever the EU offers.
I think IF we had a new GE in November or December, the Conservatives would win a small but workable majority on a strong anti-EU ticket.
Whether that would in any way impact the EU is less clear - it might encourage a deal given the DUP would be irrelevant or it might embolden those who argue for No Deal.
Not on current polls which give the LDs and SNP the balance of power
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Not really her MO.
No, but she simply does not have as much wriggle room as the EU seem to think she does (whether the EU should or would reasonably wriggle more is neither here nor there, in that they at least could if they wanted to), and there's little point in her agreeing to something which she has zero chance of getting through parliament. She was already struggling to do so. Maybe she'll break off negotiations, maybe she'll resign, but she cannot keep kicking the can and bringing any old nonsense back is pointless.
She'll keep kicking that can until she's dragged away
The amount of time to kick the can is not within her power to set.
Yes, but the limit is beyond next week
A few extra weeks or months aren't going to fix thing - it's apparent that fudges are not working as May cannot backdown (yet) and the EU doesn't see the need to backdown. Something has to give, and it might as well be now rather than literally last minute.
On the EU issue. I think most people just want it to be done and move on, and aren't 'particularly' concerned about the details.
Both the DUP and the ERG seem hell bent on creating the conditions that the entire concept of Brexit is being put at risk. It wouldn't take too much more for the public to think staying it might soon be the easier option.
The polls are clear, voters comfortably prefer Remain to No Deal. Only Norway or Canada style Brexit's have net positives. If No Deal is the alternative to Remain by the end of November Brexit could be reversed in EU ref2 before the Brexit due date at the end of March
Indeed. Everything is against 'No Deal'/Hard Brexit. The current government, MP's as a whole, the Opposition and the public as well.
The only ones holding out are purists, and they can't win. The numbers across the board aren't there.
No, the numbers are not there. But a no deal Brexit is now baked in to the victorious sponge. Unless something else is approved by both EU and UK before March 29 no deal will happen automatically. And it is not clear that the EU, the U.K. and (more particularly) a majority in the HoC will be able to agree on what "something else" will be.
More likely there will be EUref2 or another general election before March if No Deal looks likely by the end of November and either Remain wins a new referendum or Corbyn becomes PM leading a minority government reliant on the SNP and LDs.
How do we get to a second referendum. I am not disagreeing but how do you explain the process, including timing and as important the questions.
May gets to a point where she has something on the table from the EU in the next month. It becomes very clear that she will not have the votes to get it through Parliament. As a GE would probably go ill for the Tories in such a situation, she then gets Parliament to arrange for a referendum, to include no deal and remain options (both needed to get the votes to pass such a referendum act). EU asked to pause process while referendum goes on. Referendum takes place just before end of March
Not easy even then, not least seeing if remainers and ERGs would allow a referendum which included their non preferred option, but possible if May cannot get the votes on whatever the EU offers.
TM would have 48 letters immediately so we would have a vnoc as well to deal with
I think IF we had a new GE in November or December, the Conservatives would win a small but workable majority on a strong anti-EU ticket.
Whether that would in any way impact the EU is less clear - it might encourage a deal given the DUP would be irrelevant or it might embolden those who argue for No Deal.
Not on current polls which give the LDs and SNP the balance of power
In this scenario today's polls are irrelevant
No kidding. Personally I think in that kind of scenario the Tories would lose, since they'd have singularly failed, but the idea there would be no change from polling now is far from a certainty.
It's ultimately the right ruling. Imagine if a customer entered a bakery and requested a cake be baked in the shape of a Swaschtika, carried a pro-paedophilia message or some other message that society generally sees as beyond the pale.
Freedom of speech =/= compulsion of speech
The critical part of Alastair's piece:
Most people, if someone asked them to make something with a message that they disapproved of on moral grounds, would inwardly sigh and do it if it was within the bounds of normal public debate.
Your examples I would suggest are not within the bounds of normal public debate. But what about the BNP, the EDL or the Liberal Democrats?
It was interesting to hear Lady Hale describe gay marriage as a political subject. I get the feeling there are some on the illiberal left who think the tolerance of intolerance should be outlawed.
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Not really her MO.
No, but she simply does not have as much wriggle room as the EU seem to think she does (whether the EU should or would reasonably wriggle more is neither here nor there, in that they at least could if they wanted to), and there's little point in her agreeing to something which she has zero chance of getting through parliament. She was already struggling to do so. Maybe she'll break off negotiations, maybe she'll resign, but she cannot keep kicking the can and bringing any old nonsense back is pointless.
She'll keep kicking that can until she's dragged away
The amount of time to kick the can is not within her power to set.
Yes, but the limit is beyond next week
A few extra weeks or months aren't going to fix thing - it's apparent that fudges are not working as May cannot backdown (yet) and the EU doesn't see the need to backdown. Something has to give, and it might as well be now rather than literally last minute.
I agree. And that brings us back to: not May's MO.
On the EU issue. I think most people just want it to be done and move on, and aren't 'particularly' concerned about the details.
Both the DUP and the ERG seem hell bent on creating the conditions that the entire concept of Brexit is being put at risk. It wouldn't take too much more for the public to think staying it might soon be the easier option.
The polls are clear, voters comfortably prefer Remain to No Deal. Only Norway or Canada style Brexit's have net positives. If No Deal is the alternative to Remain by the end of November Brexit could be reversed in EU ref2 before the Brexit due date at the end of March
Indeed. Everything is against 'No Deal'/Hard Brexit. The current government, MP's as a whole, the Opposition and the public as well.
The only ones holding out are purists, and they can't win. The numbers across the board aren't there.
No, the numbers are not there. But a no deal Brexit is now baked in to the victorious sponge. Unless something else is approved by both EU and UK before March 29 no deal will happen automatically. And it is not clear that the EU, the U.K. and (more particularly) a majority in the HoC will be able to agree on what "something else" will be.
More likely there will be EUref2 or another general election before March if No Deal looks likely by the end of November and either Remain wins a new referendum or Corbyn becomes PM leading a minority government reliant on the SNP and LDs.
How do we get to a second referendum. I am not disagreeing but how do you explain the process, including timing and as important the questions.
May gets to a point where she has something on the table from the EU in the next month. It becomes very clear that she will not have the votes to get it through Parliament. As a GE would probably go ill for the Tories in such a situation, she then gets Parliament to arrange for a referendum, to include no deal and remain options (both needed to get the votes to pass such a referendum act). EU asked to pause process while referendum goes on. Referendum takes place just before end of March
Not easy even then, not least seeing if remainers and ERGs would allow a referendum which included their non preferred option, but possible if May cannot get the votes on whatever the EU offers.
TM would have 48 letters immediately so we would have a vnoc as well to deal with
This ruling coupled with the Gina Miller case shows we need to start paying more attention to the appointment of UK Supreme Court Justices rather than just US ones
Quite the opposite. This was a unanimous decision that quoted and followed the precedent set in the US Supreme Court. Not a narrow partisan decision decided by one individual on narrow partisan lines.
There were 3 dissenting judges on the Gina Miller ruling but it passed anyway
If no one else is doing it, why don't you set up a spreadsheet a tell us if patterns emerge in which way our Supreme Court judges fall.
I think IF we had a new GE in November or December, the Conservatives would win a small but workable majority on a strong anti-EU ticket.
Whether that would in any way impact the EU is less clear - it might encourage a deal given the DUP would be irrelevant or it might embolden those who argue for No Deal.
Not on current polls which give the LDs and SNP the balance of power
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Thereby achieving what exactly?
Not much, but as nothing would have been achieved anyway, there would be no negative impact either, and the ball would be in parliament's hands to decide what to do next.
If so..... She should resign. She had one job. She failed.
And then what
General Election probably. Remember this is your preferred scenario. ;-)
Where did you get that from.
At no time have I expressed a wish for a GE
And those hoping for a GE have no way of explaining how we arrive at one and how would labour commit in a manifesto
You recommended she flounced from the negotiations , we’re just working that scenario through.
You again use emotive words like flounced.
Would a male PM 'flounce' out or would he terminate negotiations.
These were my words for avoidance of doubt:
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Not sure what the question is about "flounce".
Men flounce. Women flounce. Children flounce. Countries flounce etc.
All perfectly normal usage of the English language.
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Not really her MO.
No, but she simply does not have as much wriggle room as the EU seem to think she does (whether the EU should or would reasonably wriggle more is neither here nor there, in that they at least could if they wanted to), and there's little point in her agreeing to something which she has zero chance of getting through parliament. She was already struggling to do so. Maybe she'll break off negotiations, maybe she'll resign, but she cannot keep kicking the can and bringing any old nonsense back is pointless.
She'll keep kicking that can until she's dragged away
The amount of time to kick the can is not within her power to set.
Yes, but the limit is beyond next week
A few extra weeks or months aren't going to fix thing - it's apparent that fudges are not working as May cannot backdown (yet) and the EU doesn't see the need to backdown. Something has to give, and it might as well be now rather than literally last minute.
I agree. And that brings us back to: not May's MO.
May's modus operandi is to position herself in the middle between the two sides, thus immobilising herself in the manner of Buridan's ass. The donkey died of indecision.
To my mind the weakness here was the questionable finding of fact by the Recorder. I do not see that it was established that the baker knew that the customer was gay, so patently direct discrimination was impossible.
Unless we are back to the requirement for certain groups of people to be telepathic.
It's ultimately the right ruling. Imagine if a customer entered a bakery and requested a cake be baked in the shape of a Swaschtika, carried a pro-paedophilia message or some other message that society generally sees as beyond the pale.
Freedom of speech =/= compulsion of speech
Yes, finding cake decorators for the annual PB Tory bash has been problematic lately...
We have babies to eat, not cakes.
As readers of Patrick O'Brian could tell you, Boiled Baby was a favourite RN suet pudding. Perhaps one could be prepared for symbolic purposes.
Last time I was in Inverness I noticed that an Asher's Bakery had opened there. Plenty of religious fundamentalists up there to get their teeth into.
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Thereby achieving what exactly?
Not much, but as nothing would have been achieved anyway, there would be no negative impact either, and the ball would be in parliament's hands to decide what to do next.
If so..... She should resign. She had one job. She failed.
And then what
General Election probably. Remember this is your preferred scenario. ;-)
Where did you get that from.
At no time have I expressed a wish for a GE
And those hoping for a GE have no way of explaining how we arrive at one and how would labour commit in a manifesto
You recommended she flounced from the negotiations , we’re just working that scenario through.
You again use emotive words like flounced.
Would a male PM 'flounce' out or would he terminate negotiations.
These were my words for avoidance of doubt:
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Not sure what the question is about "flounce".
Men flounce. Women flounce. Children flounce. Countries flounce etc.
All perfectly normal usage of the English language,
I like to be quoted accurately and flounce was not the language I used
I think IF we had a new GE in November or December, the Conservatives would win a small but workable majority on a strong anti-EU ticket.
Whether that would in any way impact the EU is less clear - it might encourage a deal given the DUP would be irrelevant or it might embolden those who argue for No Deal.
Not on current polls which give the LDs and SNP the balance of power
Tories only win with a new leader. May will not be allowed to screw up another one again and an anti EU ticket needs an anti EU leader.
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Thereby achieving what exactly?
Not much, but as nothing would have been achieved anyway, there would be no negative impact either, and the ball would be in parliament's hands to decide what to do next.
If so..... She should resign. She had one job. She failed.
And then what
General Election probably. Remember this is your preferred scenario. ;-)
Where did you get that from.
At no time have I expressed a wish for a GE
And those hoping for a GE have no way of explaining how we arrive at one and how would labour commit in a manifesto
You recommended she flounced from the negotiations , we’re just working that scenario through.
You again use emotive words like flounced.
Would a male PM 'flounce' out or would he terminate negotiations.
These were my words for avoidance of doubt:
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Wasn’t the Cameron flounce bounce widely discussed in exactly those terms around these parts?
On the EU issue. I think most people just want it to be done and move on, and aren't 'particularly' concerned about the details.
Both the DUP and the ERG seem hell bent on creating the conditions that the entire concept of Brexit is being put at risk. It wouldn't take too much more for the public to think staying it might soon be the easier option.
The polls are clear, voters comfortably prefer Remain to No Deal. Only Norway or Canada style Brexit's have net positives. If No Deal is the alternative to Remain by the end of November Brexit could be reversed in EU ref2 before the Brexit due date at the end of March
Indeed. Everything is against 'No Deal'/Hard Brexit. The current government, MP's as a whole, the Opposition and the public as well.
The only ones holding out are purists, and they can't win. The numbers across the board aren't there.
No, the numbers are not there. But a no deal Brexit is now baked in to the victorious sponge. Unless something else is approved by both EU and UK before March 29 no deal will happen automatically. And it is not clear that the EU, the U.K. and (more particularly) a majority in the HoC will be able to agree on what "something else" will be.
More likely there will be EUref2 or another general election before March if No Deal looks likely by the end of November and either Remain wins a new referendum or Corbyn becomes PM leading a minority government reliant on the SNP and LDs.
How do we get to a second referendum. I am not disagreeing but how do you explain the process, including timing and as important the questions.
Given the SNP has backed a second EU referendum and the Labour Conference backed a second EU referendum and the LDs back a second EU referendum and Tory MPs like Rudd have backed a second EU referendum if No Deal it is a matter of when not if we get a second one if No Deal and Remain would almost certainly win it. Not one poll has shown No Deal ahead of Remain
You usually answer the question but you have not answered it other than to say who wants a second referendum. The problem is TM does not
TM will be toppled in 5 minutes according to last weekend's papers if she comes back with No Deal, half the Cabinet would desert her, maybe more
This ruling coupled with the Gina Miller case shows we need to start paying more attention to the appointment of UK Supreme Court Justices rather than just US ones
Quite the opposite. This was a unanimous decision that quoted and followed the precedent set in the US Supreme Court. Not a narrow partisan decision decided by one individual on narrow partisan lines.
There were 3 dissenting judges on the Gina Miller ruling but it passed anyway
If no one else is doing it, why don't you set up a spreadsheet a tell us if patterns emerge in which way our Supreme Court judges fall.
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Thereby achieving what exactly?
Not much, but as nothing would have been achieved anyway, there would be no negative impact either, and the ball would be in parliament's hands to decide what to do next.
If so..... She should resign. She had one job. She failed.
And then what
General Election probably. Remember this is your preferred scenario. ;-)
Where did you get that from.
At no time have I expressed a wish for a GE
And those hoping for a GE have no way of explaining how we arrive at one and how would labour commit in a manifesto
You recommended she flounced from the negotiations , we’re just working that scenario through.
You again use emotive words like flounced.
Would a male PM 'flounce' out or would he terminate negotiations.
These were my words for avoidance of doubt:
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Wasn’t the Cameron flounce bounce widely discussed in exactly those terms around these parts?
Yup, Flounce Bounce, The Cleggasm, and Morrisons bounce have all been discussed on here.
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Thereby achieving what exactly?
Not much, but as nothing would have been achieved anyway, there would be no negative impact either, and the ball would be in parliament's hands to decide what to do next.
If so..... She should resign. She had one job. She failed.
And then what
General Election probably. Remember this is your preferred scenario. ;-)
Where did you get that from.
At no time have I expressed a wish for a GE
And those hoping for a GE have no way of explaining how we arrive at one and how would labour commit in a manifesto
You recommended she flounced from the negotiations , we’re just working that scenario through.
You again use emotive words like flounced.
Would a male PM 'flounce' out or would he terminate negotiations.
These were my words for avoidance of doubt:
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Wasn’t the Cameron flounce bounce widely discussed in exactly those terms around these parts?
Yup, Flounce Bounce, The Cleggasm, and Morrisons bounce have all been discussed on here.
In future the May Delay will be shorthand for delaying a mildly popular decision until your popular support is completely destroyed by being forced into an incredibly unpopular decision.
On the EU issue. I think most people just want it to be done and move on, and aren't 'particularly' concerned about the details.
Both the DUP and the ERG seem hell bent on creating the conditions that the entire concept of Brexit is being put at risk. It wouldn't take too much more for the public to think staying it might soon be the easier option.
The polls are clear, voters comfortably prefer Remain to No Deal. Only Norway or Canada style Brexit's have net positives. If No Deal is the alternative to Remain by the end of November Brexit could be reversed in EU ref2 before the Brexit due date at the end of March
Indeed. Everything is against 'No Deal'/Hard Brexit. The current government, MP's as a whole, the Opposition and the public as well.
The only ones holding out are purists, and they can't win. The numbers across the board aren't there.
No, the numbers are not there. But a no deal Brexit is now baked in to the victorious sponge. Unless something else is approved by both EU and UK before March 29 no deal will happen automatically. And it is not clear that the EU, the U.K. and (more particularly) a majority in the HoC will be able to agree on what "something else" will be.
More likely there will be EUref2 or another general election before March if No Deal looks likely by the end of November and either Remain wins a new referendum or Corbyn becomes PM leading a minority government reliant on the SNP and LDs.
How do we get to a second referendum. I am not disagreeing but how do you explain the process, including timing and as important the questions.
Given the SNP has backed a second EU referendum and the Labour Conference backed a second EU referendum and the LDs back a second EU referendum and Tory MPs like Rudd have backed a second EU referendum if No Deal it is a matter of when not if we get a second one if No Deal and Remain would almost certainly win it. Not one poll has shown No Deal ahead of Remain
You usually answer the question but you have not answered it other than to say who wants a second referendum. The problem is TM does not
TM will be toppled in 5 minutes according to last weekend's papers if she comes back with No Deal, half the Cabinet would desert her, maybe more
And how is she to be replaced. My wife and I want to vote against Boris
On the EU issue. I think most people just want it to be done and move on, and aren't 'particularly' concerned about the details.
Both the DUP and the ERG seem hell bent on creating the conditions that the entire concept of Brexit is being put at risk. It wouldn't take too much more for the public to think staying it might soon be the easier option.
The polls are clear, voters comfortably prefer Remain to No Deal. Only Norway or Canada style Brexit's have net positives. If No Deal is the alternative to Remain by the end of November Brexit could be reversed in EU ref2 before the Brexit due date at the end of March
Indeed. Everything is against 'No Deal'/Hard Brexit. The current government, MP's as a whole, the Opposition and the public as well.
The only ones holding out are purists, and they can't win. The numbers across the board aren't there.
No, the numbers are not there. But a no deal Brexit is now baked in to the victorious sponge. Unless something else is approved by both EU and UK before March 29 no deal will happen automatically. And it is not clear that the EU, the U.K. and (more particularly) a majority in the HoC will be able to agree on what "something else" will be.
More likely there will be EUref2 or another general election before March if No Deal looks likely by the end of November and either Remain wins a new referendum or Corbyn becomes PM leading a minority government reliant on the SNP and LDs.
How do we get to a second referendum. I am not disagreeing but how do you explain the process, including timing and as important the questions.
Given the SNP has backed a second EU referendum and the Labour Conference backed a second EU referendum and the LDs back a second EU referendum and Tory MPs like Rudd have backed a second EU referendum if No Deal it is a matter of when not if we get a second one if No Deal and Remain would almost certainly win it. Not one poll has shown No Deal ahead of Remain
You usually answer the question but you have not answered it other than to say who wants a second referendum. The problem is TM does not
TM will be toppled in 5 minutes according to last weekend's papers if she comes back with No Deal, half the Cabinet would desert her, maybe more
And how is she to be replaced. My wife and I want to vote against Boris
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Thereby achieving what exactly?
Not much, but as nothing would have been achieved anyway, there would be no negative impact either, and the ball would be in parliament's hands to decide what to do next.
If so..... She should resign. She had one job. She failed.
And then what
General Election probably. Remember this is your preferred scenario. ;-)
Where did you get that from.
At no time have I expressed a wish for a GE
And those hoping for a GE have no way of explaining how we arrive at one and how would labour commit in a manifesto
You recommended she flounced from the negotiations , we’re just working that scenario through.
You again use emotive words like flounced.
Would a male PM 'flounce' out or would he terminate negotiations.
These were my words for avoidance of doubt:
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Wasn’t the Cameron flounce bounce widely discussed in exactly those terms around these parts?
Yup, Flounce Bounce, The Cleggasm, and Morrisons bounce have all been discussed on here.
In future the May Delay will be shorthand for delaying a mildly popular decision until your popular support is completely destroyed by being forced into an incredibly unpopular decision.
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Thereby achieving what exactly?
Not much, but as nothing would have been achieved anyway, there would be no negative impact either, and the ball would be in parliament's hands to decide what to do next.
If so..... She should resign. She had one job. She failed.
And then what
General Election probably. Remember this is your preferred scenario. ;-)
Where did you get that from.
At no time have I expressed a wish for a GE
And those hoping for a GE have no way of explaining how we arrive at one and how would labour commit in a manifesto
You recommended she flounced from the negotiations , we’re just working that scenario through.
You again use emotive words like flounced.
Would a male PM 'flounce' out or would he terminate negotiations.
These were my words for avoidance of doubt:
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Wasn’t the Cameron flounce bounce widely discussed in exactly those terms around these parts?
Yup, Flounce Bounce, The Cleggasm, and Morrisons bounce have all been discussed on here.
Yes they have but they are not my words in the piece referred to
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
It feels very much like the EU kite flying to be able to claim well we were all but signed up for an agreement then UK wouldn't agree to our reasonable minor changes.
Reasonable minor changes = increasing Irish Sea checks by a factor of 10
Barnier is focussing on the 'checks' but the legal reality is that there would be a customs border between GB and NI, regardless of what level of 'checks' exist this is unacceptable. The EU are trying to bounce May.
I am somewhat surprised that the EU have not just agreed to the all-UK backstop as it will give them what they want - the ability to force the UK to remain bound by SM and CU rules forever. But Barnier will only agree this on the basis of FOM and payments.
This is the box that May has tied herself up in - there is not meant to be a solution to the NI backstop. It's a trap!
When has Barnier ever said the backstop cannot include work permits and requires everlasting payments?
He has said the backstop requires NI to be in the Customs Union effectively and to have regulatory alignment and that will have to apply to the whole UK unless and until an acceptable technical solution can be found
Wrong on every level. Barnier has said the backstop can only apply to NI (which is not possible). He has rejected an all-UK backstop specifically because he says it will lead to SM access via the backdoor - eg without payments and FOM. So if Barnier is now to accept an all UK backstop it is logical that he will insist on this.
A NI-only backstop will not happen because the DUP will no confidence your Government.
On the EU issue. I think most people just want it to be done and move on, and aren't 'particularly' concerned about the details.
Both the DUP and the ERG seem hell bent on creating the conditions that the entire concept of Brexit is being put at risk. It wouldn't take too much more for the public to think staying it might soon be the easier option.
The polls are clear, voters comfortably prefer Remain to No he end of March
Indeed. Everything is against 'No Deal'/Hard Brexit. The current government, MP's as a whole, the Opposition and the public as well.
The only ones holding out are purists, and they can't win. The numbers across the board aren't there.
No, the numbers are not there. But a no deal Brexit is now baked in to the victorious sponge. Unless something else is approved by both EU and UK before March 29 no deal will happen automatically. And it is not clear that the EU, the U.K. and (more particularly) a majority in the HoC will be able to agree on what "something else" will be.
More likely there will be EUref2 or another general election before March if No Deal looks likely by the end of November and either Remain wins a new referendum or Corbyn becomes PM leading a minority government reliant on the SNP and LDs.
How do we get to a second referendum. I am not disagreeing but how do you explain the process, including timing and as important the questions.
Given the SNP has backed a second win it. Not one poll has shown No Deal ahead of Remain
You usually answer the question but you have not answered it other than to say who wants a second referendum. The problem is TM does not
TM will be toppled in 5 minutes according to last weekend's papers if she comes back with No Deal, half the Cabinet would desert her, maybe more
And how is she to be replaced. My wife and I want to vote against Boris
There would have to be a coronation of course, not impossible Soubry and Grieve and Rudd and Wollaston etc could back Vince Cable to lead a government of national unity with SNP and Labour moderate support to back EEA post Brexit and maybe a second EU referendum rather than No Deal if no Tory contender has a viable alternative. If that has the votes the Queen would then appoint Cable PM given we are in a hung parliament anyway
No, the numbers are not there. But a no deal Brexit is now baked in to the victorious sponge. Unless something else is approved by both EU and UK before March 29 no deal will happen automatically. And it is not clear that the EU, the U.K. and (more particularly) a majority in the HoC will be able to agree on what "something else" will be.
More likely there will be EUref2 or another general election before March if No Deal looks likely by the end of November and either Remain wins a new referendum or Corbyn becomes PM leading a minority government reliant on the SNP and LDs.
How do we get to a second referendum. I am not disagreeing but how do you explain the process, including timing and as important the questions.
Given the SNP has backed a second EU referendum and the Labour Conference backed a second EU referendum and the LDs back a second EU referendum and Tory MPs like Rudd have backed a second EU referendum if No Deal it is a matter of when not if we get a second one if No Deal and Remain would almost certainly win it. Not one poll has shown No Deal ahead of Remain
You usually answer the question but you have not answered it other than to say who wants a second referendum. The problem is TM does not
TM will be toppled in 5 minutes according to last weekend's papers if she comes back with No Deal, half the Cabinet would desert her, maybe more
And how is she to be replaced. My wife and I want to vote against Boris
Yes, this is just silly. If May cannot do a deal nobody will stand against her. She is so desperate to do a deal that if she can't manage it then nobody else would have done it.
On the EU issue. I think most people just want it to be done and move on, and aren't 'particularly' concerned about the details.
Both the DUP and the ERG seem hell bent on creating the conditions that the entire concept of Brexit is being put at risk. It wouldn't take too much more for the public to think staying it might soon be the easier option.
The polls are clear, voters comfortably prefer Remain to No he end of March
Indeed. Everything is against 'No Deal'/Hard Brexit. The current government, MP's as a whole, the Opposition and the public as well.
The only ones holding out are purists, and they can't win. The numbers across the board aren't there.
No, the numbers are not there. But a no deal Brexit is now baked in to the victorious sponge. Unless something else is approved by both EU and UK before March 29 no deal will happen automatically. And it is not clear that the EU, the U.K. and (more particularly) a majority in the HoC will be able to agree on what "something else" will be.
More likely there will be EUref2 or another general election before March if No Deal looks likely by the end of November and either Remain wins a new referendum or Corbyn becomes PM leading a minority government reliant on the SNP and LDs.
How do we get to a second referendum. I am not disagreeing but how do you explain the process, including timing and as important the questions.
Given the SNP has backed a second win it. Not one poll has shown No Deal ahead of Remain
You usually answer the question but you have not answered it other than to say who wants a second referendum. The problem is TM does not
TM will be toppled in 5 minutes according to last weekend's papers if she comes back with No Deal, half the Cabinet would desert her, maybe more
And how is she to be replaced. My wife and I want to vote against Boris
There would have to be a coronation of course, not impossible Soubry and Grieve and Rudd and Wollaston etc could back Vince Cable to lead a government of national unity with SNP and Labour moderate support to back EEA post Brexit and maybe a second EU referendum rather than No Deal if no Tory contender has a viable alternative. If that has the votes the Queen would then appoint Cable PM given we are in a hung parliament anyway
No, the numbers are not there. But a no deal Brexit is now baked in to the victorious sponge. Unless something else is approved by both EU and UK before March 29 no deal will happen automatically. And it is not clear that the EU, the U.K. and (more particularly) a majority in the HoC will be able to agree on what "something else" will be.
More likely there will be EUref2 or another general election before March if No Deal looks likely by the end of November and either Remain wins a new referendum or Corbyn becomes PM leading a minority government reliant on the SNP and LDs.
How do we get to a second referendum. I am not disagreeing but how do you explain the process, including timing and as important the questions.
Given the SNP has backed a second EU referendum and the Labour Conference backed a second EU referendum and the LDs back a second EU referendum and Tory MPs like Rudd have backed a second EU referendum if No Deal it is a matter of when not if we get a second one if No Deal and Remain would almost certainly win it. Not one poll has shown No Deal ahead of Remain
You usually answer the question but you have not answered it other than to say who wants a second referendum. The problem is TM does not
TM will be toppled in 5 minutes according to last weekend's papers if she comes back with No Deal, half the Cabinet would desert her, maybe more
And how is she to be replaced. My wife and I want to vote against Boris
Yes, this is just silly. If May cannot do a deal nobody will stand against her. She is so desperate to do a deal that if she can't manage it then nobody else would have done it.
The only point of May was to get a Deal. If she cannot do even that then she has no point and I think she knows it which is why in the end she will cave on the backstop to Barnier
On the EU issue. I think most people just want it to be done and move on, and aren't 'particularly' concerned about the details.
Both the DUP and the ERG seem hell bent on creating the conditions that the entire concept of Brexit is being put at risk. It wouldn't take too much more for the public to think staying it might soon be the easier option.
The polls are clear, voters comfortably prefer Remain to No he end of March
Indeed. Everything is against 'No Deal'/Hard Brexit. The current government, MP's as a whole, the Opposition and the public as well.
The only ones holding out are purists, and they can't win. The numbers across the board aren't there.
No, the numbers are not there. But a no deal Brexit is now baked in " will be.
More likely there will be EUref2 or another general election before March if No Deal looks likely by the end of November and either Remain wins a new referendum or Corbyn becomes PM leading a minority government reliant on the SNP and LDs.
How do we get to a second referendum. I am not disagreeing but how do you explain the process, including timing and as important the questions.
Given the SNP has backed a second win it. Not one poll has shown No Deal ahead of Remain
You usually answer the question but you have not answered it other than to say who wants a second referendum. The problem is TM does not
TM will be toppled in 5 minutes according to last weekend's papers if she comes back with No Deal, half the Cabinet would desert her, maybe more
And how is she to be replaced. My wife and I want to vote against Boris
There would have to be a coronation of course, not impossible Soubry and Grieve and Rudd and Wollaston etc could back Vince Cable to lead a government of national unity with SNP and Labour moderate support to back EEA post Brexit and maybe a second EU referendum rather than No Deal if no Tory contender has a viable alternative. If that has the votes the Queen would then appoint Cable PM given we are in a hung parliament anyway
What are you smoking tonight?
In a hung parliament with No Deal 4 months before Brexit anything could happen given there is no majority in Parliament for No Deal
On the EU issue. I think most people just want it to be done and move on, and aren't 'particularly' concerned about the details.
Both the DUP and the ERG seem hell bent on creating the conditions that the entire concept of Brexit is being put at risk. It wouldn't take too much more for the public to think staying it might soon be the easier option.
The polls are clear, voters comfortably prefer Remain to No Deal. Only Norway or Canada style Brexit's have net positives. If No Deal is the alternative to Remain by the end of November Brexit could be reversed in EU ref2 before the Brexit due date at the end of March
Indeed. Everything is against 'No Deal'/Hard Brexit. The current government, MP's as a whole, the Opposition and the public as well.
The only ones holding out are purists, and they can't win. The numbers across the board aren't there.
No, the numbers are not there. But a no deal Brexit is now baked in to the victorious sponge. Unless something else is approved by both EU and UK before March 29 no deal will happen automatically. And it is not clear that the EU, the U.K. and (more particularly) a majority in the HoC will be able to agree on what "something else" will be.
More likely there will be EUref2 or another general election before March if No Deal looks likely by the end of November and either Remain wins a new referendum or Corbyn becomes PM leading a minority government reliant on the SNP and LDs.
How do we get to a second referendum. I am not disagreeing but how do you explain the process, including timing and as important the questions.
May gets to a point where she has something on the table from the EU in the next month. It becomes very clear that she will not have the votes to get it through Parliament. As a GE would probably go ill for the Tories in such a situation, she then gets Parliament to arrange for a referendum, to include no deal and remain options (both needed to get the votes to pass such a referendum act). EU asked to pause process while referendum goes on. Referendum takes place just before end of March
Not easy even then, not least seeing if remainers and ERGs would allow a referendum which included their non preferred option, but possible if May cannot get the votes on whatever the EU offers.
TM would have 48 letters immediately so we would have a vnoc as well to deal with
It would at least move things along, as opposed to the pointless limbo we are in at present.
On the EU issue. I think most people just want it to be done and move on, and aren't 'particularly' concerned about the .
The polls are clear, voters comfortably prefer Remain to No he end of March
Indeed. Everything is against 'No Deal'/Hard Brexit. The current government, MP's as a whole, the Opposition and the public as well.
The only ones holding out are purists, and they can't win. The numbers across the board aren't there.
No, the numbers are not there. But a no deal Brexit is now baked in to the victorious sponge. Unless something else is approved by both EU and UK before March 29 no deal will happen automatically. And it is not clear that the EU, the U.K. and (more particularly) a majority in the HoC will be able to agree on what "something else" will be.
More likely there will be EUref2 or another general election before March if No Deal looks likely by the end of November and either Remain wins a new referendum or Corbyn becomes PM leading a minority government reliant on the SNP and LDs.
How do we get to a second referendum. I am not disagreeing but how do you explain the process, including timing and as important the questions.
Given the SNP has backed a second win it. Not one poll has shown No Deal ahead of Remain
You usually answer the question but you have not answered it other than to say who wants a second referendum. The problem is TM does not
TM will be toppled in 5 minutes according to last weekend's papers if she comes back with No Deal, half the Cabinet would desert her, maybe more
And how is she to be replaced. My wife and I want to vote against Boris
There would have to be a coronation of course, not impossible Soubry and Grieve and Rudd and Wollaston etc could back Vince Cable to lead a government of national unity with SNP and Labour moderate support to back EEA post Brexit and maybe a second EU referendum rather than No Deal if no Tory contender has a viable alternative. If that has the votes the Queen would then appoint Cable PM given we are in a hung parliament anyway
You do say some ridiculous and even funny things but even my wife collapsing laughing when I read it out to her. Indeed I can still hear her chuckling away in the lounge
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
It feels very much like the EU kite flying to be able to claim well we were all but signed up for an agreement then UK wouldn't agree to our reasonable minor changes.
Reasonable minor changes = increasing Irish Sea checks by a factor of 10
Barnier is focussing on the 'checks' but the legal reality is that there would be a customs border between GB and NI, regardless of what level of 'checks' exist this is unacceptable. The EU are trying to bounce May.
I am somewhat surprised that the EU have not just agreed to the all-UK backstop as it will give them what they want - the ability to force the UK to remain bound by SM and CU rules forever. But Barnier will only agree this on the basis of FOM and payments.
This is the box that May has tied herself up in - there is not meant to be a solution to the NI backstop. It's a trap!
When has Barnier ever said the backstop cannot include work permits and requires everlasting payments?
He has said the backstop requires NI to be in the Customs Union effectively and to have regulatory alignment and that will have to apply to the whole UK unless and until an acceptable technical solution can be found
Wrong on every level. Barnier has said the backstop can only apply to NI (which is not possible). He has rejected an all-UK backstop specifically because he says it will lead to SM access via the backdoor - eg without payments and FOM. So if Barnier is now to accept an all UK backstop it is logical that he will insist on this.
A NI-only backstop will not happen because the DUP will no confidence your Government.
It is regulatory alignment he has said would be needed, he has not said anything about work permits not being permissible or extra payments beyond those committed to required
No, the numbers are not there. But a no deal Brexit is now baked in to the victorious sponge. Unless something else is approved by both EU and UK before March 29 no deal will happen automatically. And it is not clear that the EU, the U.K. and (more particularly) a majority in the HoC will be able to agree on what "something else" will be.
More likely there will be EUref2 or another general election before March if No Deal looks likely by the end of November and either Remain wins a new referendum or Corbyn becomes PM leading a minority government reliant on the SNP and LDs.
How do we get to a second referendum. I am not disagreeing but how do you explain the process, including timing and as important the questions.
Given the SNP has backed a second EU referendum and the Labour Conference backed a second EU referendum and the LDs back a second EU referendum and Tory MPs like Rudd have backed a second EU referendum if No Deal it is a matter of when not if we get a second one if No Deal and Remain would almost certainly win it. Not one poll has shown No Deal ahead of Remain
You usually answer the question but you have not answered it other than to say who wants a second referendum. The problem is TM does not
TM will be toppled in 5 minutes according to last weekend's papers if she comes back with No Deal, half the Cabinet would desert her, maybe more
And how is she to be replaced. My wife and I want to vote against Boris
Yes, this is just silly. If May cannot do a deal nobody will stand against her. She is so desperate to do a deal that if she can't manage it then nobody else would have done it.
The only point of May was to get a Deal. If she cannot do even that then she has no point and I think she knows it which is why in the end she will cave on the backstop to Barnier
She was elected to be Tory leader, and the country elected sufficient Tory MPs that the Tories form the government. That's it.
The 'point' of Mrs May is that she's been elected and subsequently empowered to fulfill the role she does.
That's not a choice - it's no deal or no deal, since she cannot survive and concede to that degree.
But the idea the EU have not been playing games is patently ridiculous. And the idea the contortions we have been going through are antics makes the EU look like idiots, since the contortions, reasonable or not, are not antics, they are a consequence of the political precariousness. Antics suggests May has developed a silly position as part of strategy which can be simply adjusted, when it is quite clearly because of weakness to her position necessitating a tortured position. Which may well need to be rejected, but that analysis suggests the oh so praised EU does not understand the position at all.
Additionally, May has already conceded plenty. Perhaps it is not enough for the EU, again reasonable or not. But to act like she hasn't, and that the EU has no need to give in a give and take is also ridiculous.
On the EU issue. I think most people just want it to be done and move on, and aren't 'particularly' concerned about the .
The polls are clear, voters comfortably prefer Remain to No he end of March
Indeed. Everything is against 'No Deal'/Hard Brexit. The current government, MP's as a whole, the Opposition and the public as well.
The only ones holding out are purists, and they can't win. The numbers across the board aren't there.
No, the numbers are not there. But a no deal Brexit is now baked in to the victorious be.
More likely there will be EUref2 or another general election before March if No Deal looks likely by the end of November and either Remain wins a new referendum or Corbyn becomes PM leading a minority government reliant on the SNP and LDs.
How do we get to a second referendum. I am not disagreeing but how do you explain the process, including timing and as important the questions.
Given the SNP has backed a second win it. Not one poll has shown No Deal ahead of Remain
You usually answer the question but you have not answered it other than to say who wants a second referendum. The problem is TM does not
TM will be toppled in 5 minutes according to last weekend's papers if she comes back with No Deal, half the Cabinet would desert her, maybe more
And how is she to be replaced. My wife and I want to vote against Boris
There would have to be a coronation of course, not impossible Soubry and Grieve and Rudd and Wollaston etc could back Vince Cable to lead a government of national unity with SNP and Labour moderate support to back EEA post Brexit and maybe a second EU referendum rather than No Deal if no Tory contender has a viable alternative. If that has the votes the Queen would then appoint Cable PM given we are in a hung parliament anyway
You do say some ridiculous and even funny things but even my wife collapsing laughing when I read it out to her. Indeed I can still hear her chuckling away in the lounge
You won't be laughing in November if No Deal, not only would there likely be riots in London, the £ and stock market would collapse through the floor, the SNP would be threatening Indyref2 asap etc
No way a government could survive that, a government of national unity may be the only way out
On the EU issue. I think most people just want it to be done and move on, and aren't 'particularly' concerned about the .
The polls are clear, voters comfortably prefer Remain to No he end of March
Indeed. Everything is against 'No Deal'/Hard Brexit. The current government, MP's as a whole, the Opposition and the public as well.
The only ones holding out are purists, and they can't win. The numbers across the board aren't there.
No, the numbers are not there. But a no deal Brexit is now baked in to the victorious be.
How do we get to a second referendum. I am not disagreeing but how do you explain the process, including timing and as important the questions.
Given the SNP has backed a second win it. Not one poll has shown No Deal ahead of Remain
You usually answer the question but you have not answered it other than to say who wants a second referendum. The problem is TM does not
TM will be toppled in 5 minutes according to last weekend's papers if she comes back with No Deal, half the Cabinet would desert her, maybe more
And how is she to be replaced. My wife and I want to vote against Boris
There would have to be a coronation of course, not impossible Soubry and Grieve and Rudd and Wollaston etc could back Vince Cable to lead a government of national unity with SNP and Labour moderate support to back EEA post Brexit and maybe a second EU referendum rather than No Deal if no Tory contender has a viable alternative. If that has the votes the Queen would then appoint Cable PM given we are in a hung parliament anyway
You do say some ridiculous and even funny things but even my wife collapsing laughing when I read it out to her. Indeed I can still hear her chuckling away in the lounge
You won't be laughing in November if No Deal, not only would there likely be riots in London, the £ and stock market would collapse through the floor, the SNP would be threatening Indyref2 asap etc
No way a government could survive that, a government of national unity may be the only way out
You are losing the plot completely. But brexit does that to some
No, the numbers are not there. But a no deal Brexit is now baked in to the victorious sponge. Unless something else is approved by both EU and UK before March 29 no deal will happen automatically. And it is not clear that the EU, the U.K. and (more particularly) a majority in the HoC will be able to agree on what "something else" will be.
More likely there will be EUref2 or another general election before March if No Deal looks likely by the end of November and either Remain wins a new referendum or Corbyn becomes PM leading a minority government reliant on the SNP and LDs.
How do we get to a second referendum. I am not disagreeing but how do you explain the process, including timing and as important the questions.
Given the SNP has backed a second EU referendum and the Labour Conference backed a second EU referendum and the LDs back a second EU referendum and Tory MPs like Rudd have backed a second EU referendum if No Deal it is a matter of when not if we get a second one if No Deal and Remain would almost certainly win it. Not one poll has shown No Deal ahead of Remain
You usually answer the question but you have not answered it other than to say who wants a second referendum. The problem is TM does not
TM will be toppled in 5 minutes according to last weekend's papers if she comes back with No Deal, half the Cabinet would desert her, maybe more
And how is she to be replaced. My wife and I want to vote against Boris
Yes, this is just silly. If May cannot do a deal nobody will stand against her. She is so desperate to do a deal that if she can't manage it then nobody else would have done it.
The only point of May was to get a Deal. If she cannot do even that then she has no point and I think she knows it which is why in the end she will cave on the backstop to Barnier
She was elected to be Tory leader, and the country elected sufficient Tory MPs that the Tories form the government. That's it.
The 'point' of Mrs May is that she's been elected and subsequently empowered to fulfill the role she does.
40 MPs oppose No Deal under all circumstances, she instantly loses her majority in Parliament even with the DUP if that is the case
If May was negotiating instead of Thatcher we'd have ended up with a UK surcharge rather than rebate.
Long since time to say No Deal until they want to change tact.
I don't think they will change tack - clearly the EU believes the negative consequences of no deal for them (which is acknowledged by all, since that is why they are negotiating in the first place, since a deal is better for them than no deal) are worth accepting rather than make any more concessions. That's very unfortunate, and it means no deal unless Parliament is willing to entirely concede everything (which May cannot), or completely change direction somehow.
If the EU won't meet May even quarter way, then her job is over, and parliament needs to think long and hard about what to do - either it accepts that no deal is happening, or some very odd bedfellows are going to have to unite behind capitulation, GE or referendum. But based on EU comments the latter is probably out, since they won't offer anything.
On the EU issue. I think most people just want it to be done and move on, and aren't 'particularly' concerned about the .
The polls are clear, voters comfortably prefer Remain to No he end of March
Indeed. Everything is against 'No Deal'/Hard Brexit. The current government, MP's as a whole, the Opposition and the public as well.
The only ones holding out are purists, and they can't win. The numbers across the board aren't there.
No, the numbers are not there. But a no deal Brexit is now baked in to the victorious be.
How do we get to a second referendum. I am not disagreeing but how do you explain the process, including timing and as important the questions.
Given the SNP has backed a second win it. Not one poll has shown No Deal ahead of Remain
You usually answer the question but you have not answered it other than to say who wants a second referendum. The problem is TM does not
TM will be toppled in 5 minutes according to last weekend's papers if she comes back with No Deal, half the Cabinet would desert her, maybe more
And how is she to be replaced. My wife and I want to vote against Boris
There would have to be a coronation of course, not impossible Soubry and Grieve and Rudd and Wollaston etc could back Vince Cable to lead a government of national unity with SNP and Labour moderate support to back EEA post Brexit and maybe a second EU referendum rather than No Deal if no Tory contender has a viable alternative. If that has the votes the Queen would then appoint Cable PM given we are in a hung parliament anyway
You do say some ridiculous and even funny things but even my wife collapsing laughing when I read it out to her. Indeed I can still hear her chuckling away in the lounge
You won't be laughing in November if No Deal, not only would there likely be riots in London, the £ and stock market would collapse through the floor, the SNP would be threatening Indyref2 asap etc
No way a government could survive that, a government of national unity may be the only way out
You are losing the plot completely. But brexit does that to some
How can May survive No Deal when a comfortable majority of the country opposes it? It would be her Poll Tax
When has Barnier ever said the backstop cannot include work permits and requires everlasting payments?
He has said the backstop requires NI to be in the Customs Union effectively and to have regulatory alignment and that will have to apply to the whole UK unless and until an acceptable technical solution can be found
Wrong on every level. Barnier has said the backstop can only apply to NI (which is not possible). He has rejected an all-UK backstop specifically because he says it will lead to SM access via the backdoor - eg without payments and FOM. So if Barnier is now to accept an all UK backstop it is logical that he will insist on this.
A NI-only backstop will not happen because the DUP will no confidence your Government.
It is regulatory alignment he has said would be needed, he has not said anything about work permits not being permissible or extra payments beyond those committed to required
You are continuing to mix up all the issues just so that you can repeat your talking points.
Barnier has always ruled out an all-UK backstop because it would allow SM and CU access for the UK without accepting the four 'freedoms'. To 'solve' the NI border you need the UK to be in both the CU and SM - which is cherry picking if the UK do not adopt FOM. This week he is continuing to reject an all UK backstop for the same reason.
On a separate matter, the NI-only backstop, he wants NI to have regulatory alignment with the EU (eg in the SM) and for NI to be in the CU - creating both a regulatory and customs border in the Irish Sea. His part solution is that the whole UK remain in the CU, which would mean that there would be no need for a customs border in the Irish Sea but you would still need a regulatory border.
All of the above should be unacceptable to May, so if she sells out on it the DUP will vote her out.
No, the numbers are not there. But a no deal Brexit is now baked in to the victorious sponge. Unless something else is approved by both EU and UK before March 29 no deal will happen automatically. And it is not clear that the EU, the U.K. and (more particularly) a majority in the HoC will be able to agree on what "something else" will be.
More likely there will be EUref2 or another general election before March if No Deal looks likely by the end of November and either Remain wins a new referendum or Corbyn becomes PM leading a minority government reliant on the SNP and LDs.
How do we get to a second referendum. I am not disagreeing but how do you explain the process, including timing and as important the questions.
Given the SNP has backed a second EU referendum and the Labour Conference backed a second EU referendum and the LDs back a second EU referendum and Tory MPs like Rudd have backed a second EU referendum if No Deal it is a matter of when not if we get a second one if No Deal and Remain would almost certainly win it. Not one poll has shown No Deal ahead of Remain
You usually answer the question but you have not answered it other than to say who wants a second referendum. The problem is TM does not
TM will be toppled in 5 minutes according to last weekend's papers if she comes back with No Deal, half the Cabinet would desert her, maybe more
And how is she to be replaced. My wife and I want to vote against Boris
Yes, this is just silly. If May cannot do a deal nobody will stand against her. She is so desperate to do a deal that if she can't manage it then nobody else would have done it.
The only point of May was to get a Deal. If she cannot do even that then she has no point and I think she knows it which is why in the end she will cave on the backstop to Barnier
She was elected to be Tory leader, and the country elected sufficient Tory MPs that the Tories form the government. That's it.
The 'point' of Mrs May is that she's been elected and subsequently empowered to fulfill the role she does.
40 MPs oppose No Deal under all circumstances, she instantly loses her majority in Parliament even with the DUP if that is the case
Yeah, but she's not living up to some imagined 'only point'. She's where she is entirely by right, and hasn't compromised herself in a big way.
When has Barnier ever said the backstop cannot include work permits and requires everlasting payments?
He has said the backstop requires NI to be in the Customs Union effectively and to have regulatory alignment and that will have to apply to the whole UK unless and until an acceptable technical solution can be found
Wrong on every level. Barnier has said the backstop can only apply to NI (which is not possible). He has rejected an all-UK backstop specifically because he says it will lead to SM access via the backdoor - eg without payments and FOM. So if Barnier is now to accept an all UK backstop it is logical that he will insist on this.
A NI-only backstop will not happen because the DUP will no confidence your Government.
It is regulatory alignment he has said would be needed, he has not said anything about work permits not being permissible or extra payments beyond those committed to required
You are continuing to mix up all the issues just so that you can repeat your talking points.
Barnier has always ruled out an all-UK backstop because it would allow SM and CU access for the UK without accepting the four 'freedoms'. To 'solve' the NI border you need the UK to be in both the CU and SM - which is cherry picking if the UK do not adopt FOM. This week he is continuing to reject an all UK backstop for the same reason.
On a separate matter, the NI-only backstop, he wants NI to have regulatory alignment with the EU (eg in the SM) and for NI to be in the CU - creating both a regulatory and customs border in the Irish Sea. His part solution is that the whole UK remain in the CU, which would mean that there would be no need for a customs border in the Irish Sea but you would still need a regulatory border.
All of the above should be unacceptable to May, so if she sells out on it the DUP will vote her out.
It is you have inserted the FOM 'cherry picking' not Barnier.
There is a majority in the Commons for a whole UK Customs Union without the DUP, there is no majority in the Commons for No Deal.
If May comes back with No Deal the end result will either be we stay in the EEA or EUref2 or a general election
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Thereby achieving what exactly?
Not much, but as nothing would have been achieved anyway, there would be no negative impact either, and the ball would be in parliament's hands to decide what to do next.
If so..... She should resign. She had one job. She failed.
And then what
General Election probably. Remember this is your preferred scenario. ;-)
Where did you get that from.
At no time have I expressed a wish for a GE
And those hoping for a GE have no way of explaining how we arrive at one and how would labour commit in a manifesto
You recommended she flounced from the negotiations , we’re just working that scenario through.
You again use emotive words like flounced.
Would a male PM 'flounce' out or would he terminate negotiations.
These were my words for avoidance of doubt:
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
Wasn’t the Cameron flounce bounce widely discussed in exactly those terms around these parts?
Yup, Flounce Bounce, The Cleggasm, and Morrisons bounce have all been discussed on here.
In future the May Delay will be shorthand for delaying a mildly popular decision until your popular support is completely destroyed by being forced into an incredibly unpopular decision.
You should copyright 'May Delay'
Seeing it used in a threader would be sufficient reward.
On the EU issue. I think most people just want it to be done and move on, and aren't 'particularly' concerned about the details.
The polls are clear, voters comfortably prefer Remain to No he end of March
Indeed. Everything is against 'No Deal'/Hard Brexit. The current government, MP's as a whole, the Opposition and the public as well.
The only ones holding out are purists, and they can't win. The numbers across the board aren't there.
No, the numbers are not there. But a no deal Brexit is now baked in to the victorious sponge. Unless something else is approved by both EU and UK before March 29 no deal will happen automatically. And it is not clear that the EU, the U.K. and (more particularly) a majority in the HoC will be able to agree on what "something else" will be.
More likely there will be EUref2 or another general election before March if No Deal looks likely by the end of November and either Remain wins a new referendum or Corbyn becomes PM leading a minority government reliant on the SNP and LDs.
How do we get to a second referendum. I am not disagreeing but how do you explain the process, including timing and as important the questions.
Given the SNP has backed a second win it. Not one poll has shown No Deal ahead of Remain
You usually answer the question but you have not answered it other than to say who wants a second referendum. The problem is TM does not
TM will be toppled in 5 minutes according to last weekend's papers if she comes back with No Deal, half the Cabinet would desert her, maybe more
And how is she to be replaced. My wife and I want to vote against Boris
There would have to be a coronation of course, not impossible Soubry and Grieve and Rudd and Wollaston etc could back Vince Cable to lead a government of national unity with SNP and Labour moderate support to back EEA post Brexit and maybe a second EU referendum rather than No Deal if no Tory contender has a viable alternative. If that has the votes the Queen would then appoint Cable PM given we are in a hung parliament anyway
Not sure if my sarcasm alarm should be going off - but if not you could make some serious wedge successfully backing that. On the other hand I am sure there are some bookmakers keen to take your money off you.
On the EU issue. I think most people just want it to be done and move on, and aren't 'particularly' concerned about the details.
The polls are clear, voters comfortably prefer Remain to No he end of March
Indeed. Everything is against 'No Deal'/Hard Brexit. The current government, MP's as a whole, the Opposition and the public as well.
The only ones holding out are purists, and they can't win. The numbers across the board aren't there.
No, the numbers are not there. But a no deal Brexit is now baked in l be.
More likely there will be EUref2 or another general election before March if No Deal looks likely by the end of November and either Remain wins a new referendum or Corbyn becomes PM leading a minority government reliant on the SNP and LDs.
How do we get to a second referendum. I am not disagreeing but how do you explain the process, including timing and as important the questions.
Given the SNP has backed a second win it. Not one poll has shown No Deal ahead of Remain
You usually answer the question but you have not answered it other than to say who wants a second referendum. The problem is TM does not
TM will be toppled in 5 minutes according to last weekend's papers if she comes back with No Deal, half the Cabinet would desert her, maybe more
And how is she to be replaced. My wife and I want to vote against Boris
There would have to be a coronation of course, not impossible Soubry and Grieve and Rudd and Wollaston etc could back Vince Cable to lead a government of national unity with SNP and Labour moderate support to back EEA post Brexit and maybe a second EU referendum rather than No Deal if no Tory contender has a viable alternative. If that has the votes the Queen would then appoint Cable PM given we are in a hung parliament anyway
Not sure if my sarcasm alarm should be going off - but if not you could make some serious wedge successfully backing that. On the other hand I am sure there are some bookmakers keen to take your money off you.
No Deal would be Suez + Poll Tax + Darkest Hour all wrapped into one, anything could happen but May would certainly be gone
Really worrying to see that this is the analysis of someone who held one of the great offices of the land. Basically, it totally ignores reality in that Chequers has been rejected. Apart from this, it has nothing to offer at all by way of a solution.
Really worrying to see that this is the analysis of someone who held one of the great offices of the land. Basically, it totally ignores reality in that Chequers has been rejected. Apart from this, it has nothing to offer at all by way of a solution.
Never diss Amber Rudd, she was responsible for me winning TWO 33/1 bets in the space of twelve hours.
The cabinet are to meet in the morning to discuss Brexit. Interesting
It would be great to believe that they would actually discuss Brexit. But based on past experience, May will simply repeat her usual scripted lines and everyone will agree with her and nothing will be discussed at all. The Cabinet are totally gutless. They all know that May's plan is doomed but they are all more interested in holding onto their offices and positioning themselves for the subsequent leadership campaign to actually take control of the situation.
Really worrying to see that this is the analysis of someone who held one of the great offices of the land. Basically, it totally ignores reality in that Chequers has been rejected. Apart from this, it has nothing to offer at all by way of a solution.
Never diss Amber Rudd, she was responsible for me winning TWO 33/1 bets in the space of twelve hours.
Not that I've ever mentioned them on PB.
You mean, you bet that she would not have an original idea and won? Well done!
On the EU issue. I think most people just want it to be done and move on, and aren't 'particularly' concerned about the details.
Both the DUP and the ERG seem hell bent on creating the conditions that the entire concept of Brexit is being put at risk. It wouldn't take too much more for the public to think staying it might soon be the easier option.
The polls are clear, voters comfortably prefer Remain to No he end of March
Indeed. Everything is against 'No Deal'/Hard Brexit. The current government, MP's as a whole, the Opposition and the public as well.
The only ones holding out are purists, and they can't win. The numbers across the board aren't there.
No, the numbers are not there. But a no deal Brexit is now baked in to the victorious sponge. Unless something else is approved by both EU and UK before March 29 no deal will happen automatically. And it is not clear that the EU, the U.K. and (more particularly) a majority in the HoC will be able to agree on what "something else" will be.
More likely there will be EUref2 or another general election before March if No Deal looks likely by the end of November and either Remain wins a new referendum or Corbyn becomes PM leading a minority government reliant on the SNP and LDs.
How do we get to a second referendum. I am not disagreeing but how do you explain the process, including timing and as important the questions.
Given the SNP has backed a second win it. Not one poll has shown No Deal ahead of Remain
You usually answer the question but you have not answered it other than to say who wants a second referendum. The problem is TM does not
TM will be toppled in 5 minutes according to last weekend's papers if she comes back with No Deal, half the Cabinet would desert her, maybe more
And how is she to be replaced. My wife and I want to vote against Boris
There would have to be a coronation of course, not impossible Soubry and Grieve and Rudd and Wollaston etc could back Vince Cable to lead a government of national unity with SNP and Labour moderate support to back EEA post Brexit and maybe a second EU referendum rather than No Deal if no Tory contender has a viable alternative. If that has the votes the Queen would then appoint Cable PM given we are in a hung parliament anyway
Really worrying to see that this is the analysis of someone who held one of the great offices of the land. Basically, it totally ignores reality in that Chequers has been rejected. Apart from this, it has nothing to offer at all by way of a solution.
Funny, I was just thinking how fresh out of ideas you were, beyond banging your head and shouting ‘no deal’ from some unaffected outpost on the other side of the world.
The cabinet are to meet in the morning to discuss Brexit. Interesting
It would be great to believe that they would actually discuss Brexit. But based on past experience, May will simply repeat her usual scripted lines and everyone will agree with her and nothing will be discussed at all. The Cabinet are totally gutless. They all know that May's plan is doomed but they are all more interested in holding onto their offices and positioning themselves for the subsequent leadership campaign to actually take control of the situation.
Why do you not wait and see.
And Amber Rudds letter seems responsible and could receive considerable support .
Comments
At no time have I expressed a wish for a GE
And those hoping for a GE have no way of explaining how we arrive at one and how would labour commit in a manifesto
Would a male PM 'flounce' out or would he terminate negotiations.
These were my words for avoidance of doubt:
Reading the Guadian's report of Barnier's comments today, far from there being an agreement next week, it looks like this is stalemate and TM may need to terminate the negotiations
LK Remember May’s claim last week was really about easing off on cuts in spending review next year - not about Budget in a few weeks time
HPJ Dodges (parody) Totally agree Laura, it baffles me that the corbynista's think May saying "Austerity is over" could be interpreted as meaning "there will be no austerity measures in the next budget". A review next year to ascertain the possibility of easing off on cuts at some point in the future is really exciting.
LK is a Spokesperson for the PM not a reporter
I think IF we had a new GE in November or December, the Conservatives would win a small but workable majority on a strong anti-EU ticket.
Whether that would in any way impact the EU is less clear - it might encourage a deal given the DUP would be irrelevant or it might embolden those who argue for No Deal.
It becomes very clear that she will not have the votes to get it through Parliament.
As a GE would probably go ill for the Tories in such a situation, she then gets Parliament to arrange for a referendum, to include no deal and remain options (both needed to get the votes to pass such a referendum act).
EU asked to pause process while referendum goes on.
Referendum takes place just before end of March
Not easy even then, not least seeing if remainers and ERGs would allow a referendum which included their non preferred option, but possible if May cannot get the votes on whatever the EU offers.
Most people, if someone asked them to make something with a message that they disapproved of on moral grounds, would inwardly sigh and do it if it was within the bounds of normal public debate.
Your examples I would suggest are not within the bounds of normal public debate. But what about the BNP, the EDL or the Liberal Democrats?
It was interesting to hear Lady Hale describe gay marriage as a political subject. I get the feeling there are some on the illiberal left who think the tolerance of intolerance should be outlawed.
Men flounce. Women flounce. Children flounce. Countries flounce etc.
All perfectly normal usage of the English language.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/dash-to-save-the-news-bbc-presenters-granted-police-escort-to-bring-viewers-the-sixoclock-news-a3958866.html
The donkey died of indecision.
Unless we are back to the requirement for certain groups of people to be telepathic.
Last time I was in Inverness I noticed that an Asher's Bakery had opened there. Plenty of religious fundamentalists up there to get their teeth into.
A NI-only backstop will not happen because the DUP will no confidence your Government.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45805647
I would suggest that this is more important than any tart, fruit, pudding or custard.
Edit: This really is an astonishing story in the making.
The 'point' of Mrs May is that she's been elected and subsequently empowered to fulfill the role she does.
https://twitter.com/J_amesp/status/1050093230551945216
But the idea the EU have not been playing games is patently ridiculous. And the idea the contortions we have been going through are antics makes the EU look like idiots, since the contortions, reasonable or not, are not antics, they are a consequence of the political precariousness. Antics suggests May has developed a silly position as part of strategy which can be simply adjusted, when it is quite clearly because of weakness to her position necessitating a tortured position. Which may well need to be rejected, but that analysis suggests the oh so praised EU does not understand the position at all.
Additionally, May has already conceded plenty. Perhaps it is not enough for the EU, again reasonable or not. But to act like she hasn't, and that the EU has no need to give in a give and take is also ridiculous.
No way a government could survive that, a government of national unity may be the only way out
Long since time to say No Deal until they want to change tact.
If the EU won't meet May even quarter way, then her job is over, and parliament needs to think long and hard about what to do - either it accepts that no deal is happening, or some very odd bedfellows are going to have to unite behind capitulation, GE or referendum. But based on EU comments the latter is probably out, since they won't offer anything.
Barnier has always ruled out an all-UK backstop because it would allow SM and CU access for the UK without accepting the four 'freedoms'. To 'solve' the NI border you need the UK to be in both the CU and SM - which is cherry picking if the UK do not adopt FOM. This week he is continuing to reject an all UK backstop for the same reason.
On a separate matter, the NI-only backstop, he wants NI to have regulatory alignment with the EU (eg in the SM) and for NI to be in the CU - creating both a regulatory and customs border in the Irish Sea. His part solution is that the whole UK remain in the CU, which would mean that there would be no need for a customs border in the Irish Sea but you would still need a regulatory border.
All of the above should be unacceptable to May, so if she sells out on it the DUP will vote her out.
There is a majority in the Commons for a whole UK Customs Union without the DUP, there is no majority in the Commons for No Deal.
If May comes back with No Deal the end result will either be we stay in the EEA or EUref2 or a general election
I don't work in the City now, so I can only read second-hand runes.
In the UK this is so serious that it may come to asset seizures. (Pension funds). Elsewhere it's very bad.
Download the CommonsVote app for your iPhone, it is awesome.
Really worrying to see that this is the analysis of someone who held one of the great offices of the land. Basically, it totally ignores reality in that Chequers has been rejected. Apart from this, it has nothing to offer at all by way of a solution.
Not that I've ever mentioned them on PB.
And Amber Rudds letter seems responsible and could receive considerable support .