If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Davis would not be unopposed if he had no plan for the backstop better than May's, indeed May would likely survive a No confidence vote
Learn how to count as LBJ said , without the DUP she would lose a no confidence vote , and there would be 14 days to get a PM who could bring the DUP back onside or there's an election.
No you learn how to count, DUP or no DUP there is no majority in the Commons for No Deal and a Deal requires a backstop. An election of course would likely see Corbyn as PM propped up by the SNP and LDs and either EUref2 and Remain or EEA + Customs Union
In reality, Customs Union is the only Brexit deliverable by March. WTO Brexit may have been possible if our government hadn't squandered two years.
Next step is May caving in on FoM, but that can wait until the Trade talks. The salami treatment is best done slowly.
And this is the point that the CU advocates miss. Being in the CU on its own does not solve NI. We have to remain in full alignment with the SM as well. So, as you say, the EU will just force us to another cliff edge at the end of transition and then insist on EEA+CU. Barnier is adament that the UK cannot remain in a UK wide backstop indefinitely.
That is why this deal will fall apart. It doesn’t achieve anything and will not deliver Brexit.
Not your brexit maybe, but EEA +CU is fine by me
To solve the NI border you need EEA+CU+ECJ+Food saftey standards + VAT regime.
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Davis would not be unopposed if he had no plan for the backstop better than May's, indeed May would likely survive a No confidence vote
Learn how to count as LBJ said , without the DUP she would lose a no confidence vote , and there would be 14 days to get a PM who could bring the DUP back onside or there's an election.
Let's assume that the DUP withdraws Confidence and Supply. There are now two options:
1. Mrs May goes to Her Majesty (thanks Charles) and resigns. or 2. Mrs May decides to tough it out running a minority administration.
If 1 happens, then David Davis might take over. But it seems unlikely the Conservative Party would elect a new leader without a contest.
If 2 happens, then you need to ask if the letters go in to the '22 committee. Let's assume they do. Well, there's still no guarantee that Mrs May doesn't win the confidence vote. And if she doesn't, there'll be a full blown leadership election. (In which case, I reckon an Article 50 Extension becomes a near certainty, and a number of PBers lose their shirts.)
No credibility at that stage. May cannot deliver Norway. She is on record saying it would be unacceptable for the UK. How are you going to get a new leader who will do this?
This would be the same PM who said that she was not having an election and the called an election? She has form...
Yeah, it didn’t work out that well last time!
But May will resign if her deal is voted down. She will not try for EEA.
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed
ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
With respect you do not represent the Country. Far from it.
Indeed tonight the conservative remainers have said they will vote for TM deal and last night John Mann said that a lot of labour mps will vote with the government if TM deal is reasonable
Brexiteers have pushed too hard
As I said in the earlier thread, this is nothing to do with the ERG. This is down to May agreeing the backstop - her mistake. The backstop is not deliverable and blocks almost all kinds of deal except EEA/CU which May has declared is not Brexit.
May fell for the backstop trap. Don’t blame the people who told her not to do it. We are not being held up by the trade ageement, we are being held up by May’s backstop,
At this moment in time Norway + would have majority support in the HOC. Yes it would cause civil war in the party but if TM gets the majority HOC support she will have lanced the boil of brexit
Lanced the boil for who?
See here's the thing. You see everything through the prism of Remainers because you were and are a Remainer.
So sure she'll have "lanced the boil" of Brexit for Remainers (by ensuring we don't leave) but how will she have lanced the boil for leavers who despite winning the referendum have seen their vote betrayed?
What this is all about, and always has been, is the losers being unable to accept they lost and trying to overturn the referendum.
Everything else is smokes and mirrors.
Hold on - I voted remain but have been consistent in supporting leave.
However, Boris FO to business and the threat to jit manufacturing moved me to a Chequers style deal
You are one of several hard brexiteers who are hitting out as your idea of brexit is not shared by the majority, indeed it is a minority view
I do not want to remain but Norway or similar is fine by me
However, if you push too much a second referendum becomes more than possible and you will end up still in the EU
How can you "Not invite" Cabinet Ministers to the Cabinet? I guess we will find how accurate your gossips are
It is an "inner Cabinet" according to Times.
If she cannot even get agreement among the inner Cabinet (and I would bet good money she won't) what hope the rest of the Cabinet, the party and the country?
Who is most likely to do a Boris and agree to back it, see if anyone else leaves, then decide to change their mind and then act like they never agreed to it in the first place?
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
The problem with that theory is the "Davis elected unopposed" bit, because it only takes a few MPs to ensure there's a contest. Can anyone think of an MP desperate to become Prime Minister out there???
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Care to explain how that works. As a member and have a vote for her successor I am interested to know how David Davis is crowned without my vote
It requires that:
1. Theresa May falls on her sword. 2. Only one set of nomination papers is submitted.
The first is unlikely, but possible. The second is highly unlikely. Not impossible, but it would require the various factions in the Conservative Party to unite around a candidate.
14 days to pass a confidence vote or it's an election. Think about that situation. Tory MP's either pick a single candidate bypassing the members who the DUP would support or it's a general election.
I'm not saying it's not possible, but a more likely scenario would be that either Lord Hague or Lord Howard takes over as interim Prime Minister while a proper leadership election is held.
Simply, I can't see Kenneth Clarke, Anna Soubry, Justine Greening, Sarah Woolaston, Amber Rudd or a couple of others just rolling over and accepting no contest at all.
In reality, Customs Union is the only Brexit deliverable by March. WTO Brexit may have been possible if our government hadn't squandered two years.
Next step is May caving in on FoM, but that can wait until the Trade talks. The salami treatment is best done slowly.
And this is the point that the CU advocates miss. Being in the CU on its own does not solve NI. We have to remain in full alignment with the SM as well. So, as you say, the EU will just force us to another cliff edge at the end of transition and then insist on EEA+CU. Barnier is adament that the UK cannot remain in a UK wide backstop indefinitely.
That is why this deal will fall apart. It doesn’t achieve anything and will not deliver Brexit.
Not your brexit maybe, but EEA +CU is fine by me
To solve the NI border you need EEA+CU+ECJ+Food saftey standards + VAT regime.
I don't actually think that's true. I think that a border that looked like Switzerland to France would cause no problems at all on the ground.
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Davis would not be unopposed if he had no plan for the backstop better than May's, indeed May would likely survive a No confidence vote
Learn how to count as LBJ said , without the DUP she would lose a no confidence vote , and there would be 14 days to get a PM who could bring the DUP back onside or there's an election.
No you learn how to count, DUP or no DUP there is no majority in the Commons for No Deal and a Deal requires a backstop. An election of course would likely see Corbyn as PM propped up by the SNP and LDs and either EUref2 and Remain or EEA + Customs Union
Majorities for this or that deal are irrelevant, I'm talking about DUP not supporting the government in a no-confidence motion, which when they lose it brings the FTPA act into play . There are then 14 days for a new government to pass a confidence motion or there has to be an election.
Has anyone considered the possibility that the outcome of the next general election may be another Conservative / Liberal Democrat coalition?
No, because I cannot see the LDs in my lifetime agreeing to another coalition with the Tories. They learned the hard way their voters don't want them to be in the middle and don't reward them for compromising.
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
The problem with that theory is the "Davis elected unopposed" bit, because it only takes a few MPs to ensure there's a contest. Can anyone think of an MP desperate to become Prime Minister out there???
Davis won’t do it
Expectation is 4 week leadership campaign
Hunt the remainder candidate
That's a more likely outcome. I can see that happening. Who will face him?
Well something has to break, to break this deadlock. The EU’s red lines, the UKs border, the Tory party, the govt, the DUP, TM’s premiership. Something has to give. Just a question of what.
Quite so. I had thought TM's premiership would have first, allowing other options to be at least attempted, but no. So now I am thinking it is the UKs border - yes, the government is dependent on the DUP, but it's easier to counter the, with Labour rebels on this issue than mass Tory rebellion.
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Davis would not be unopposed if he had no plan for the backstop better than May's, indeed May would likely survive a No confidence vote
Learn how to count as LBJ said , without the DUP she would lose a no confidence vote , and there would be 14 days to get a PM who could bring the DUP back onside or there's an election.
No credibility at that stage. May cannot deliver Norway. She is on record saying it would be unacceptable for the UK. How are you going to get a new leader who will do this?
This would be the same PM who said that she was not having an election and the called an election? She has form...
Yeah, it didn’t work out that well last time!
But May will resign if her deal is voted down. She will not try for EEA.
In reality, Customs Union is the only Brexit deliverable by March. WTO Brexit may have been possible if our government hadn't squandered two years.
Next step is May caving in on FoM, but that can wait until the Trade talks. The salami treatment is best done slowly.
And this is the point that the CU advocates miss. Being in the CU on its own does not solve NI. We have to remain in full alignment with the SM as well. So, as you say, the EU will just force us to another cliff edge at the end of transition and then insist on EEA+CU. Barnier is adament that the UK cannot remain in a UK wide backstop indefinitely.
That is why this deal will fall apart. It doesn’t achieve anything and will not deliver Brexit.
Not your brexit maybe, but EEA +CU is fine by me
Except we cannot do EEA quickly. We have to leave and then apply to EFTA first, then apply for EEA. It could be years and damage caused by Brexit will be done in weeks or months.
From a technical perspective, that's not true. There is no obligation for members of the EEA to be members of EFTA, it is merely the case that all currently are.
Thanks to OGH for drawing attention to the NYT phone polling live results the other day. It's fascinating to watch the calls taking place in real time. The results in Nevada are currently neck-and-neck:
In reality, Customs Union is the only Brexit deliverable by March. WTO Brexit may have been possible if our government hadn't squandered two years.
Next step is May caving in on FoM, but that can wait until the Trade talks. The salami treatment is best done slowly.
I remember Labour drifting into endorsing a customs union as a midpoint compromise between people who really wanted to stay in, people who wanted to respect the referendum and people who really didn't care much either way (who are more numerous than you'd think, especially in the PLP). By a happy coincidence, it turns out to have been an amazingly good decision, since if that's what we end up with, Labour can reasonably say they proposed it a year ago, what's all this faffing about been for?
You are one of several hard brexiteers who are hitting out as your idea of brexit is not shared by the majority, indeed it is a minority view
My idea of Brexit is the one Theresa May sold to me (leaving SM and CU, doing free trade deals, etc...) - Anybody that's noticed me around these parts for the past twelve years will know the one thing I hate more than anything is being taken for a fool - And in the 2017 general election and subsequently Theresa May took me for a fool.
She and her lousy party won't get that chance again...
seems to me that obvious course is for UK to become GB
It's not much of a solution when it creates another very big problem at the same time. It's not as though NI is something which can be just given away and that'll be the end of it.
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Care to explain how that works. As a member and have a vote for her successor I am interested to know how David Davis is crowned without my vote
It requires that:
1. Theresa May falls on her sword. 2. Only one set of nomination papers is submitted.
The first is unlikely, but possible. The second is highly unlikely. Not impossible, but it would require the various factions in the Conservative Party to unite around a candidate.
In reality, Customs Union is the only Brexit deliverable by March. WTO Brexit may have been possible if our government hadn't squandered two years.
Next step is May caving in on FoM, but that can wait until the Trade talks. The salami treatment is best done slowly.
And this is the point that the CU advocates miss. Being in the CU on its own does not solve NI. We have to remain in full alignment with the SM as well. So, as you say, the EU will just force us to another cliff edge at the end of transition and then insist on EEA+CU. Barnier is adament that the UK cannot remain in a UK wide backstop indefinitely.
That is why this deal will fall apart. It doesn’t achieve anything and will not deliver Brexit.
Not your brexit maybe, but EEA +CU is fine by me
Except we cannot do EEA quickly. We have to leave and then apply to EFTA first, then apply for EEA. It could be years and damage caused by Brexit will be done in weeks or months.
From a technical perspective, that's not true. There is no obligation for members of the EEA to be members of EFTA, it is merely the case that all currently are.
"Procedurally, in order to become a member of the EEA after "the (EU) Treaties shall cease to apply" to it (art 50(3) TEU), the UK would first have to present its candidacy and negotiate and conclude an accession agreement to become an EFTA member (art 56(1) of the Convention establishing the EFTA). This is because the EEA cannot apply to non EU member States, with the exception of Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway, precisely because they are members of EFTA (art 126(1) EEA). Thus, the UK will have to negotiate an accession treaty to EFTA with the four members of this organisation: Switzerland and the three EEA EFTA members."
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Davis would not be unopposed if he had no plan for the backstop better than May's, indeed May would likely survive a No confidence vote
Learn how to count as LBJ said , without the DUP she would lose a no confidence vote , and there would be 14 days to get a PM who could bring the DUP back onside or there's an election.
Let's assume that the DUP withdraws Confidence and Supply. There are now two options:
1. Mrs May goes to Her Majesty (thanks Charles) and resigns. or 2. Mrs May decides to tough it out running a minority administration.
If 1 happens, then David Davis might take over. But it seems unlikely the Conservative Party would elect a new leader without a contest.
If 2 happens, then you need to ask if the letters go in to the '22 committee. Let's assume they do. Well, there's still no guarantee that Mrs May doesn't win the confidence vote. And if she doesn't, there'll be a full blown leadership election. (In which case, I reckon an Article 50 Extension becomes a near certainty, and a number of PBers lose their shirts.)
2 can't happen under the FTPA. It requires a confidence motion is passed within 14 days or there is an election.
Hagues/Howard as caretaker can only happen if the DUP return confidence in another vote.
Clarke/Sourbry et all , would have to decide to support a DUP sponsored PM or allow an election which would almost certainly lead to Corbyn.
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Care to explain how that works. As a member and have a vote for her successor I am interested to know how David Davis is crowned without my vote
It requires that:
1. Theresa May falls on her sword. 2. Only one set of nomination papers is submitted.
The first is unlikely, but possible. The second is highly unlikely. Not impossible, but it would require the various factions in the Conservative Party to unite around a candidate.
14 days to pass a confidence vote or it's an election. Think about that situation. Tory MP's either pick a single candidate bypassing the members who the DUP would support or it's a general election.
Crucial lines from the Cabinet manual, should May choose to resign:
"Recent examples suggest that previous Prime Ministers have not offered their resignations until there was a situation in which clear advice could be given to the Sovereign on who should be asked to form a government. It remains to be seen whether or not these examples will be regarded in future as having established a constitutional convention."
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Davis would not be unopposed if he had no plan for the backstop better than May's, indeed May would likely survive a No confidence vote
Learn how to count as LBJ said , without the DUP she would lose a no confidence vote , and there would be 14 days to get a PM who could bring the DUP back onside or there's an election.
You are talking of a vnoc in the government
How is this to come about
It would be proposed by one of the opposition parties in the house if the DUP withdrew their support.
Thanks to OGH for drawing attention to the NYT phone polling live results the other day. It's fascinating to watch the calls taking place in real time. The results in Nevada are currently neck-and-neck:
In reality, Customs Union is the only Brexit deliverable by March. WTO Brexit may have been possible if our government hadn't squandered two years.
Next step is May caving in on FoM, but that can wait until the Trade talks. The salami treatment is best done slowly.
And this is the point that the CU advocates miss. Being in the CU on its own does not solve NI. We have to remain in full alignment with the SM as well. So, as you say, the EU will just force us to another cliff edge at the end of transition and then insist on EEA+CU. Barnier is adament that the UK cannot remain in a UK wide backstop indefinitely.
That is why this deal will fall apart. It doesn’t achieve anything and will not deliver Brexit.
Not your brexit maybe, but EEA +CU is fine by me
Except we cannot do EEA quickly. We have to leave and then apply to EFTA first, then apply for EEA. It could be years and damage caused by Brexit will be done in weeks or months.
From a technical perspective, that's not true. There is no obligation for members of the EEA to be members of EFTA, it is merely the case that all currently are.
"Procedurally, in order to become a member of the EEA after "the (EU) Treaties shall cease to apply" to it (art 50(3) TEU), the UK would first have to present its candidacy and negotiate and conclude an accession agreement to become an EFTA member (art 56(1) of the Convention establishing the EFTA). This is because the EEA cannot apply to non EU member States, with the exception of Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway, precisely because they are members of EFTA (art 126(1) EEA). Thus, the UK will have to negotiate an accession treaty to EFTA with the four members of this organisation: Switzerland and the three EEA EFTA members."
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Davis would not be unopposed if he had no plan for the backstop better than May's, indeed May would likely survive a No confidence vote
Learn how to count as LBJ said , without the DUP she would lose a no confidence vote , and there would be 14 days to get a PM who could bring the DUP back onside or there's an election.
No you learn how to count, DUP or no DUP there is no majority in the Commons for No Deal and a Deal requires a backstop. An election of course would likely see Corbyn as PM propped up by the SNP and LDs and either EUref2 and Remain or EEA + Customs Union
Majorities for this or that deal are irrelevant, I'm talking about DUP not supporting the government in a no-confidence motion, which when they lose it brings the FTPA act into play . There are then 14 days for a new government to pass a confidence motion or there has to be an election.
An election likely leading to a Corbyn minority government with the LDs and SNP calling the shots
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Care to explain how that works. As a member and have a vote for her successor I am interested to know how David Davis is crowned without my vote
It requires that:
1. Theresa May falls on her sword. 2. Only one set of nomination papers is submitted.
The first is unlikely, but possible. The second is highly unlikely. Not impossible, but it would require the various factions in the Conservative Party to unite around a candidate.
I disagree, I really don’t see it like that. If MPs voting has, or looks certain to have one candidate quite a way ahead of another, the loser could withdraw using the fine excuse the situation needs unity behind a leader sharpish in the national interest.
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Davis would not be unopposed if he had no plan for the backstop better than May's, indeed May would likely survive a No confidence vote
Learn how to count as LBJ said , without the DUP she would lose a no confidence vote , and there would be 14 days to get a PM who could bring the DUP back onside or there's an election.
You are talking of a vnoc in the government
How is this to come about
@Tony is proposing the DUP ditch their Supply & Confidence agreement with the Conservative Party, and call a No Confidence vote in the House of Commons.
It would be an incredibly gutsy call by them, not least because if it goes wrong, then they end up with new elections that might not be entirely to their advantage.
What if Mrs May does not step down and leads the Conservatives to UK-wide victory? What if Jeremy Corbyn makes more gains and the DUP aren't enough to provide the Conservatives with a majority?
The only reason they would threaten to do this (which, by the way, would also mean yet another set of elections on the old boundaries...), would be if they thought it would ensure that Mrs May stepped down and they got a Conservative leader more to their liking. But there's no guarantee of that at all.
seems to me that obvious course is for UK to become GB
It's not much of a solution when it creates another very big problem at the same time. It's not as though NI is something which can be just given away and that'll be the end of it.
Are we giving it away if DUP plays this card as if it is ungiveawayable?
Ireland has been a curse for ever. Where would that leave Eire ? Get tuff!
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Davis would not be unopposed if he had no plan for the backstop better than May's, indeed May would likely survive a No confidence vote
Learn how to count as LBJ said , without the DUP she would lose a no confidence vote , and there would be 14 days to get a PM who could bring the DUP back onside or there's an election.
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Davis would not be unopposed if he had no plan for the backstop better than May's, indeed May would likely survive a No confidence vote
Learn how to count as LBJ said , without the DUP she would lose a no confidence vote , and there would be 14 days to get a PM who could bring the DUP back onside or there's an election.
You are talking of a vnoc in the government
How is this to come about
It would be proposed by one of the opposition parties in the house if the DUP withdrew their support.
If the LDs thought Mrs May would deliver a soft Brexit, how many of them would turn up to the vote? And would the SNP MP in - say - North East Fife particularly want an election where he's defending his majority of two... Much better to fail to be there.
I'm not saying it won't happen (it might), but I think it's by no means certain that the Conservative Party would lose the Confidence Vote.
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Care to explain how that works. As a member and have a vote for her successor I am interested to know how David Davis is crowned without my vote
It requires that:
1. Theresa May falls on her sword. 2. Only one set of nomination papers is submitted.
The first is unlikely, but possible. The second is highly unlikely. Not impossible, but it would require the various factions in the Conservative Party to unite around a candidate.
I find it unlikely they could unite around a candidate. But if they did it wouldn't be Davis.
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Davis would not be unopposed if he had no plan for the backstop better than May's, indeed May would likely survive a No confidence vote
Learn how to count as LBJ said , without the DUP she would lose a no confidence vote , and there would be 14 days to get a PM who could bring the DUP back onside or there's an election.
You are talking of a vnoc in the government
How is this to come about
@Tony is proposing the DUP ditch their Supply & Confidence agreement with the Conservative Party, and call a No Confidence vote in the House of Commons.
It would be an incredibly gutsy call by them, not least because if it goes wrong, then they end up with new elections that might not be entirely to their advantage.
What if Mrs May does not step down and leads the Conservatives to UK-wide victory? What if Jeremy Corbyn makes more gains and the DUP aren't enough to provide the Conservatives with a majority?
The only reason they would threaten to do this (which, by the way, would also mean yet another set of elections on the old boundaries...), would be if they thought it would ensure that Mrs May stepped down and they got a Conservative leader more to their liking. But there's no guarantee of that at all.
From the DUP perspective the Union is their no.1 concern. So anything would be better than accepting NI in the CM with GB out, it would be a staging post to a united Ireland.
The Tory MP's would have a choice , either support May and have an election within a few weeks , or ditch her . I'd be fairly certain which way they'd jump.
Also remember it was made very clear the confidence and supply arrangement was between the parties , not with May herself. Hence Williamson signing it.
And how delightful that May is in this position all of her own making.
She was the one who screwed up the election after she started threatening her own voters.
She was the one who said "Brexit Means Brexit" and all that bullsh*t to sucker in Leavers only to then sell them down the river (did she seriously think they would take her betrayal lying down?)
She was the one who humiliated herself and the country by flying off to see Junker in the middle of the night and then agreed the backstop even though the DUP had told her they couldn't support it.
She was the one who betrayed David Davis and his CETA plan while sneakily cooking up Chequers with Robbins.
Never has a politician been more hoist by their own petard than Theresa May....
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Care to explain how that works. As a member and have a vote for her successor I am interested to know how David Davis is crowned without my vote
It requires that:
1. Theresa May falls on her sword. 2. Only one set of nomination papers is submitted.
The first is unlikely, but possible. The second is highly unlikely. Not impossible, but it would require the various factions in the Conservative Party to unite around a candidate.
I disagree, I really don’t see it like that. If MPs voting has, or looks certain to have one candidate quite a way ahead of another, the loser could withdraw using the fine excuse the situation needs unity behind a leader sharpish in the national interest.
Yes, I agree that's possible. But I think it still requires some sort of contest to see who really has the votes of MPs. I think it's certainly possible that there would be a gentleman's (or woman's) agreement for the loser among the MPs to step aside to avoid a member's vote.
But I can't see how you avoid at least the first round of voting amongst the MPs.
And I also suspect that if you had such an election today, then there would probably be only one Remainer candidate (say Hunt), and a couple of Leavers. If Hunt "won" the first round, you'd still need subsequent rounds.
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Care to explain how that works. As a member and have a vote for her successor I am interested to know how David Davis is crowned without my vote
It requires that:
1. Theresa May falls on her sword. 2. Only one set of nomination papers is submitted.
The first is unlikely, but possible. The second is highly unlikely. Not impossible, but it would require the various factions in the Conservative Party to unite around a candidate.
I find it unlikely they could unite around a candidate. But if they did it wouldn't be Davis.
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Davis would not be unopposed if he had no plan for the backstop better than May's, indeed May would likely survive a No confidence vote
Learn how to count as LBJ said , without the DUP she would lose a no confidence vote , and there would be 14 days to get a PM who could bring the DUP back onside or there's an election.
You are talking of a vnoc in the government
How is this to come about
It would be proposed by one of the opposition parties in the house if the DUP withdrew their support.
If the LDs thought Mrs May would deliver a soft Brexit, how many of them would turn up to the vote? And would the SNP MP in - say - North East Fife particularly want an election where he's defending his majority of two... Much better to fail to be there.
I'm not saying it won't happen (it might), but I think it's by no means certain that the Conservative Party would lose the Confidence Vote.
I agree. I think it would be very, very close.
Though, of course, if there are Tory plotters behind it then there is every chance a handful of Tories will have urgent dental operations...
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Davis would not be unopposed if he had no plan for the backstop better than May's, indeed May would likely survive a No confidence vote
Learn how to count as LBJ said , without the DUP she would lose a no confidence vote , and there would be 14 days to get a PM who could bring the DUP back onside or there's an election.
You are talking of a vnoc in the government
How is this to come about
It would be proposed by one of the opposition parties in the house if the DUP withdrew their support.
If the LDs thought Mrs May would deliver a soft Brexit, how many of them would turn up to the vote? And would the SNP MP in - say - North East Fife particularly want an election where he's defending his majority of two... Much better to fail to be there.
I'm not saying it won't happen (it might), but I think it's by no means certain that the Conservative Party would lose the Confidence Vote.
Come on seriously , LD and SNP Mp's would vote confidence in a TORY government. Think what that would do to both those parties at the next election. Labour would destroy them both.
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Davis would not be unopposed if he had no plan for the backstop better than May's, indeed May would likely survive a No confidence vote
Learn how to count as LBJ said , without the DUP she would lose a no confidence vote , and there would be 14 days to get a PM who could bring the DUP back onside or there's an election.
You are talking of a vnoc in the government
How is this to come about
@Tony is proposing the DUP ditch their Supply & Confidence agreement with the Conservative Party, and call a No Confidence vote in the House of Commons.
It would be an incredibly gutsy call by them, not least because if it goes wrong, then they end up with new elections that might not be entirely to their advantage.
What if Mrs May does not step down and leads the Conservatives to UK-wide victory? What if Jeremy Corbyn makes more gains and the DUP aren't enough to provide the Conservatives with a majority?
The only reason they would threaten to do this (which, by the way, would also mean yet another set of elections on the old boundaries...), would be if they thought it would ensure that Mrs May stepped down and they got a Conservative leader more to their liking. But there's no guarantee of that at all.
From the DUP perspective the Union is their no.1 concern. So anything would be better than accepting NI in the CM with GB out, it would be a staging post to a united Ireland.
The Tory MP's would have a choice , either support May and have an election within a few weeks , or ditch her . I'd be fairly certain which way they'd jump.
Also remember it was made very clear the confidence and supply arrangement was between the parties , not with May herself. Hence Williamson signing it.
The last point is IIRC a red herring. It would always be the chief whip, wouldn’t it?
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Davis would not be unopposed if he had no plan for the backstop better than May's, indeed May would likely survive a No confidence vote
Learn how to count as LBJ said , without the DUP she would lose a no confidence vote , and there would be 14 days to get a PM who could bring the DUP back onside or there's an election.
You are talking of a vnoc in the government
How is this to come about
@Tony is proposing the DUP ditch their Supply & Confidence agreement with the Conservative Party, and call a No Confidence vote in the House of Commons.
It would be an incredibly gutsy call by them, not least because if it goes wrong, then they end up with new elections that might not be entirely to their advantage.
What if Mrs May does not step down and leads the Conservatives to UK-wide victory? What if Jeremy Corbyn makes more gains and the DUP aren't enough to provide the Conservatives with a majority?
The only reason they would threaten to do this (which, by the way, would also mean yet another set of elections on the old boundaries...), would be if they thought it would ensure that Mrs May stepped down and they got a Conservative leader more to their liking. But there's no guarantee of that at all.
From the DUP perspective the Union is their no.1 concern. So anything would be better than accepting NI in the CM with GB out, it would be a staging post to a united Ireland.
The Tory MP's would have a choice , either support May and have an election within a few weeks , or ditch her . I'd be fairly certain which way they'd jump.
Also remember it was made very clear the confidence and supply arrangement was between the parties , not with May herself. Hence Williamson signing it.
Even if you are right the conservative mps will look for a unity candidate who could win an election and it will not be Davis
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Davis would not be unopposed if he had no plan for the backstop better than May's, indeed May would likely survive a No confidence vote
Learn how to count as LBJ said , without the DUP she would lose a no confidence vote , and there would be 14 days to get a PM who could bring the DUP back onside or there's an election.
You are talking of a vnoc in the government
How is this to come about
It would be proposed by one of the opposition parties in the house if the DUP withdrew their support.
If the LDs thought Mrs May would deliver a soft Brexit, how many of them would turn up to the vote? And would the SNP MP in - say - North East Fife particularly want an election where he's defending his majority of two... Much better to fail to be there.
I'm not saying it won't happen (it might), but I think it's by no means certain that the Conservative Party would lose the Confidence Vote.
I agree. I think it would be very, very close.
Though, of course, if there are Tory plotters behind it then there is every chance a handful of Tories will have urgent dental operations...
With the clock ticking, it's a bit too much like Russian roulette.
And I can't see them actually tabling a Confidence Motion. They might walk away from the Confidence & Supply agreement, therefore encouraging the ERG to pull the trigger on a leadership challenge. But I can't see them risking an actual election.
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Davis would not be unopposed if he had no plan for the backstop better than May's, indeed May would likely survive a No confidence vote
Learn how to count as LBJ said , without the DUP she would lose a no confidence vote , and there would be 14 days to get a PM who could bring the DUP back onside or there's an election.
You are talking of a vnoc in the government
How is this to come about
It would be proposed by one of the opposition parties in the house if the DUP withdrew their support.
If the LDs thought Mrs May would deliver a soft Brexit, how many of them would turn up to the vote? And would the SNP MP in - say - North East Fife particularly want an election where he's defending his majority of two... Much better to fail to be there.
I'm not saying it won't happen (it might), but I think it's by no means certain that the Conservative Party would lose the Confidence Vote.
Come on seriously , LD and SNP Mp's would vote confidence in a TORY government. Think what that would do to both those parties at the next election. Labour would destroy them both.
The MP for North East Fife would have urgent business elsewhere because keeping his job is more important than becoming unemployed to him.
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Davis would not be unopposed if he had no plan for the backstop better than May's, indeed May would likely survive a No confidence vote
Learn how to count as LBJ said , without the DUP she would lose a no confidence vote , and there would be 14 days to get a PM who could bring the DUP back onside or there's an election.
You are talking of a vnoc in the government
How is this to come about
@Tony is proposing the DUP ditch their Supply & Confidence agreement with the Conservative Party, and call a No Confidence vote in the House of Commons.
It would be an incredibly gutsy call by them, not least because if it goes wrong, then they end up with new elections that might not be entirely to their advantage.
What if Mrs May does not step down and leads the Conservatives to UK-wide victory? What if Jeremy Corbyn makes more gains and the DUP aren't enough to provide the Conservatives with a majority?
The only reason they would threaten to do this (which, by the way, would also mean yet another set of elections on the old boundaries...), would be if they thought it would ensure that Mrs May stepped down and they got a Conservative leader more to their liking. But there's no guarantee of that at all.
From the DUP perspective the Union is their no.1 concern.
Hence Williamson signing it.
Even if you are right the conservative mps will look for a unity candidate who could win an election and it will not be Davis
Fair enough , Davis was just a punt based on his letter, he's clearly setting himself up as a unity candidate who could do a short term job with a different deal.
Tory MP's would need to elect someone the DUP have said is acceptable
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Davis would not be unopposed if he had no plan for the backstop better than May's, indeed May would likely survive a No confidence vote
Learn how to count as LBJ said , without the DUP she would lose a no confidence vote , and there would be 14 days to get a PM who could bring the DUP back onside or there's an election.
You are talking of a vnoc in the government
How is this to come about
It would be proposed by one of the opposition parties in the house if the DUP withdrew their support.
If the LDs thought Mrs May would deliver a soft Brexit, how many of them would turn up to the vote? And would the SNP MP in - say - North East Fife particularly want an election where he's defending his majority of two... Much better to fail to be there.
I'm not saying it won't happen (it might), but I think it's by no means certain that the Conservative Party would lose the Confidence Vote.
Come on seriously , LD and SNP Mp's would vote confidence in a TORY government. Think what that would do to both those parties at the next election. Labour would destroy them both.
Yep. Opposition parties hardly ever get a meaningful opportunity to have a VONC in a government that could actually bring the whole thing down.
The idea SNP and Lib-Dems would give the Tories (The Tories of all parties????) a vote of confidence is ridiculous...
How can you "Not invite" Cabinet Ministers to the Cabinet? I guess we will find how accurate your gossips are
Yes. The individual is plugged into one side of tonight’s debate but may not have perfect information
(Re Cabinet my understanding is that there are very few ex officio members of Cabinet. The others are Secretaries of State “usually attending” Cabinet)
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Davis would not be unopposed if he had no plan for the backstop better than May's, indeed May would likely survive a No confidence vote
Learn how to count as LBJ said , without the DUP she would lose a no confidence vote , and there would be 14 days to get a PM who could bring the DUP back onside or there's an election.
You are talking of a vnoc in the government
How is this to come about
It would be proposed by one of the opposition parties in the house if the DUP withdrew their support.
If the LDs thought Mrs May would deliver a soft Brexit, how many of them would turn up to the vote? And would the SNP MP in - say - North East Fife particularly want an election where he's defending his majority of two... Much better to fail to be there.
I'm not saying it won't happen (it might), but I think it's by no means certain that the Conservative Party would lose the Confidence Vote.
Come on seriously , LD and SNP Mp's would vote confidence in a TORY government. Think what that would do to both those parties at the next election. Labour would destroy them both.
Also, don't discount institutional memory. The last time an SNP vote of no confidence brought down a government they were all but eliminated.
A recent poll showed that for Leavers they would ditch NI and Scotland for their precious... but this was later denounced by Leavers as a voodoo poll and therefore worthless, but it seems that the majority of people prefer Remain to No-Deal.
In short, you pays your money and you takes your choice...
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Davis would not be unopposed if he had no plan for the backstop better than May's, indeed May would likely survive a No confidence vote
Learn how to count as LBJ said , without the DUP she would lose a no confidence vote , and there would be 14 days to get a PM who could bring the DUP back onside or there's an election.
You are talking of a vnoc in the government
How is this to come about
It would be proposed by one of the opposition parties in the house if the DUP withdrew their support.
If the LDs thought Mrs May would deliver a soft Brexit, how many of them would turn up to the vote? And would the SNP MP in - say - North East Fife particularly want an election where he's defending his majority of two... Much better to fail to be there.
I'm not saying it won't happen (it might), but I think it's by no means certain that the Conservative Party would lose the Confidence Vote.
Come on seriously , LD and SNP Mp's would vote confidence in a TORY government. Think what that would do to both those parties at the next election. Labour would destroy them both.
Yep. Opposition parties hardly ever get a meaningful opportunity to have a VONC in a government that could actually bring the whole thing down.
The idea SNP and Lib-Dems would give the Tories (The Tories of all parties????) a vote of confidence is ridiculous...
They wouldn't vote for the government, and they wouldn't have to - a few would simply not be able to be there.
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Davis would not be unopposed if he had no plan for the backstop better than May's, indeed May would likely survive a No confidence vote
Learn how to count as LBJ said , without the DUP she would lose a no confidence vote , and there would be 14 days to get a PM who could bring the DUP back onside or there's an election.
You are talking of a vnoc in the government
How is this to come about
It would be proposed by one of the opposition parties in the house if the DUP withdrew their support.
If the LDs thought Mrs May would deliver a soft Brexit, how many of them would turn up to the vote? And would the SNP MP in - say - North East Fife particularly want an election where he's defending his majority of two... Much better to fail to be there.
I'm not saying it won't happen (it might), but I think it's by no means certain that the Conservative Party would lose the Confidence Vote.
I agree. I think it would be very, very close.
Though, of course, if there are Tory plotters behind it then there is every chance a handful of Tories will have urgent dental operations...
With the clock ticking, it's a bit too much like Russian roulette.
And I can't see them actually tabling a Confidence Motion. They might walk away from the Confidence & Supply agreement, therefore encouraging the ERG to pull the trigger on a leadership challenge. But I can't see them risking an actual election.
I think a Confidence Motion would be tabled by the opposition if the DUP walked away, wouldn’t it?
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
The problem with that theory is the "Davis elected unopposed" bit, because it only takes a few MPs to ensure there's a contest. Can anyone think of an MP desperate to become Prime Minister out there???
Davis won’t do it
Expectation is 4 week leadership campaign
Hunt the remainder candidate
That's a more likely outcome. I can see that happening. Who will face him?
Boris Johnson? JRM? Leadsom?
JRM no - he thinks that he isn’t qualified as he hasn’t held high office
BJ, Raab, Hunt, Cleverly, don’t know Leadsom or others
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Davis would not be unopposed if he had no plan for the backstop better than May's, indeed May would likely survive a No confidence vote
Learn how to count as LBJ said , without the DUP she would lose a no confidence vote , and there would be 14 days to get a PM who could bring the DUP back onside or there's an election.
You are talking of a vnoc in the government
How is this to come about
It would be proposed by one of the opposition parties in the house if the DUP withdrew their support.
If the LDs thought Mrs May would deliver a soft Brexit, how many of them would turn up to the vote? And would the SNP MP in - say - North East Fife particularly want an election where he's defending his majority of two... Much better to fail to be there.
I'm not saying it won't happen (it might), but I think it's by no means certain that the Conservative Party would lose the Confidence Vote.
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Davis would not be unopposed if he had no plan for the backstop better than May's, indeed May would likely survive a No confidence vote
Learn how to count as LBJ said , without the DUP she would lose a no confidence vote , and there would be 14 days to get a PM who could bring the DUP back onside or there's an election.
You are talking of a vnoc in the government
How is this to come about
It would be proposed by one of the opposition parties in the house if the DUP withdrew their support.
If the LDs thought Mrs May would deliver a soft Brexit, how many of them would turn up to the vote? And would the SNP MP in - say - North East Fife particularly want an election where he's defending his majority of two... Much better to fail to be there.
I'm not saying it won't happen (it might), but I think it's by no means certain that the Conservative Party would lose the Confidence Vote.
I agree. I think it would be very, very close.
Though, of course, if there are Tory plotters behind it then there is every chance a handful of Tories will have urgent dental operations...
With the clock ticking, it's a bit too much like Russian roulette.
And I can't see them actually tabling a Confidence Motion. They might walk away from the Confidence & Supply agreement, therefore encouraging the ERG to pull the trigger on a leadership challenge. But I can't see them risking an actual election.
So far today we've had
DUP not voting with government against Labour amendment. DUP threatening to vote against the budget DUP Brexit spokesman with an eviscerating article in the Telegraph about May.
It's not a large jump to see them withdrawing confidence, if the reports on the deal are right. Labour puts down a confidence motion Government loses it.
In reality, Customs Union is the only Brexit deliverable by March. WTO Brexit may have been possible if our government hadn't squandered two years.
Next step is May caving in on FoM, but that can wait until the Trade talks. The salami treatment is best done slowly.
And this is the point that the CU advocates miss. Being in the CU on its own does not solve NI. We have to remain in full alignment with the SM as well. So, as you say, the EU will just force us to another cliff edge at the end of transition and then insist on EEA+CU. Barnier is adament that the UK cannot remain in a UK wide backstop indefinitely.
That is why this deal will fall apart. It doesn’t achieve anything and will not deliver Brexit.
Not your brexit maybe, but EEA +CU is fine by me
Except we cannot do EEA quickly. We have to leave and then apply to EFTA first, then apply for EEA. It could be years and damage caused by Brexit will be done in weeks or months.
From a technical perspective, that's not true. There is no obligation for members of the EEA to be members of EFTA, it is merely the case that all currently are.
"Procedurally, in order to become a member of the EEA after "the (EU) Treaties shall cease to apply" to it (art 50(3) TEU), the UK would first have to present its candidacy and negotiate and conclude an accession agreement to become an EFTA member (art 56(1) of the Convention establishing the EFTA). This is because the EEA cannot apply to non EU member States, with the exception of Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway, precisely because they are members of EFTA (art 126(1) EEA). Thus, the UK will have to negotiate an accession treaty to EFTA with the four members of this organisation: Switzerland and the three EEA EFTA members."
EFTA is very limited in what you can do with the EU. We might as well "No-deal". That is why the EFTA countries set up the EEA, but that is a separate process and whilst Iceland may keen to have us in EFTA, Norway is less keen. The UK would be very distorting as its economy is bigger than all the current EFTA ones put together. We would be an immense fish in a puddle.
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Davis would not be unopposed if he had no plan for the backstop better than May's, indeed May would likely survive a No confidence vote
Learn how to count as LBJ said , without the DUP she would lose a no confidence vote , and there would be 14 days to get a PM who could bring the DUP back onside or there's an election.
You are talking of a vnoc in the government
How is this to come about
It would be proposed by one of the opposition parties in the house if the DUP withdrew their support.
If the LDs thought Mrs May would deliver a soft Brexit, how many of them would turn up to the vote? And would the SNP MP in - say - North East Fife particularly want an election where he's defending his majority of two... Much better to fail to be there.
I'm not saying it won't happen (it might), but I think it's by no means certain that the Conservative Party would lose the Confidence Vote.
Come on seriously , LD and SNP Mp's would vote confidence in a TORY government. Think what that would do to both those parties at the next election. Labour would destroy them both.
Yep. Opposition parties hardly ever get a meaningful opportunity to have a VONC in a government that could actually bring the whole thing down.
The idea SNP and Lib-Dems would give the Tories (The Tories of all parties????) a vote of confidence is ridiculous...
They wouldn't vote for the government, and they wouldn't have to - a few would simply not be able to be there.
I can't see it... Everyone who is "opposed" to the government will be there to pull the plug on the wicked Tories - Particularly the Lib-Dems who will be able to say "Look, we maybe have supported Cameron but we're making up for it now by pulling the plug on May - Please forgive us!"
A recent poll showed that for Leavers they would ditch NI and Scotland for their precious... but this was later denounced by Leavers as a voodoo poll and therefore worthless, but it seems that the majority of people prefer Remain to No-Deal.
In short, you pays your money and you takes your choice...
I don't think this is a "polls" matter but rather one of real world negotiations. The DUP strategy depends on this. It is a position of no strength - call it!
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Care to explain how that works. As a member and have a vote for her successor I am interested to know how David Davis is crowned without my vote
It requires that:
1. Theresa May falls on her sword. 2. Only one set of nomination papers is submitted.
The second is highly unlikely. Not impossible, but it would require the various factions in the Conservative Party to unite around a candidate.
I disagree, I really don’t see it like that. If MPs voting has, or looks certain to have one candidate quite a way ahead of another, the loser could withdraw using the fine excuse the situation needs unity behind a leader sharpish in the national interest.
Yes, I agree that's possible. But I think it still requires some sort of contest to see who really has the votes of MPs. I think it's certainly possible that there would be a gentleman's (or woman's) agreement for the loser among the MPs to step aside to avoid a member's vote.
But I can't see how you avoid at least the first round of voting amongst the MPs.
And I also suspect that if you had such an election today, then there would probably be only one Remainer candidate (say Hunt), and a couple of Leavers. If Hunt "won" the first round, you'd still need subsequent rounds.
Yes I agree, down to 2, but maybe not even voting on the 2 if public endorsements lop sided. No matter who it is, Boris, Mogg, Patel, versus Javid or Hunt, fiercely ambitious and even with polls showing it goes to party they have good chance of winning, would they still take it on with just a quarter of parliamentary party publicly endorsing them? I don’t think they can. I have how Major got ahead and Hestletine and Hurd withdrew in my head as likely way it plays out against this current backdrop.
I actually think May is safe now though, she has her CU fudge agreed with EU. Yes technically accepting EU law and rules, with all Brexit means is withdraw from influencing those laws and rules, is 100% definition of vassal state, but I always suspected both parliament, and if it’s put to it the country, would embrace vassal state and leave us no more out the EU than Norway.
DUP not voting with government against Labour amendment. DUP threatening to vote against the budget DUP Brexit spokesman with an eviscerating article in the Telegraph about May.
It's not a large jump to see them withdrawing confidence, if the reports on the deal are right. Labour puts down a confidence motion Government loses it.
What happens next
Mrs May announces that she will lead the Conservative Party into the election to secure her version of brexit.?
DUP not voting with government against Labour amendment. DUP threatening to vote against the budget DUP Brexit spokesman with an eviscerating article in the Telegraph about May.
It's not a large jump to see them withdrawing confidence, if the reports on the deal are right. Labour puts down a confidence motion Government loses it.
What happens next
Mrs May announces that she will lead the Conservative Party into the election to secure her version of brexit.?
The woman who blew a 20% opinion poll lead in four weeks? Good luck with that,,,
DUP not voting with government against Labour amendment. DUP threatening to vote against the budget DUP Brexit spokesman with an eviscerating article in the Telegraph about May.
It's not a large jump to see them withdrawing confidence, if the reports on the deal are right. Labour puts down a confidence motion Government loses it.
What happens next
Mrs May announces that she will lead the Conservative Party into the election to secure her version of brexit.?
I've seen that movie, wasn't it out in May 2017
I don't think the MP's would allow her to do that. If she tried /refused to resign there'd be 42 letters in and she'd lose the vote.
Labour would win an election in those circumstances hence it won't happen.
Indyref2 could happen by next summer if we Leave the EU with No Deal and on the latest polls Yes would have a 50% chance of winning it.
Otherwise if we get a transition period and withdrawal agreement or and move towards a FTA or stay in the single market or if Remain wins an EU ref2 and if Unionist parties win a majority at Holyrood in 2021 as polls suggest is possible indyref2 could be a decade or more away
Westminster will not agree to another Independence Referendum during this Parliament.
DUP not voting with government against Labour amendment. DUP threatening to vote against the budget DUP Brexit spokesman with an eviscerating article in the Telegraph about May.
It's not a large jump to see them withdrawing confidence, if the reports on the deal are right. Labour puts down a confidence motion Government loses it.
What happens next
Mrs May announces that she will lead the Conservative Party into the election to secure her version of brexit.?
I've seen that movie, wasn't it out in May 2017
I don't think the MP's would allow her to do that. If she tried /refused to resign there'd be 42 letters in and she'd lose the vote.
Labour would win an election in those circumstances hence it won't happen.
48 letters and not at all certain she would lose the vote but the danger for ERG is if she wins she is there unchallenged for another 12 months
Thanks to OGH for drawing attention to the NYT phone polling live results the other day. It's fascinating to watch the calls taking place in real time. The results in Nevada are currently neck-and-neck:
Indyref2 could happen by next summer if we Leave the EU with No Deal and on the latest polls Yes would have a 50% chance of winning it.
Otherwise if we get a transition period and withdrawal agreement or and move towards a FTA or stay in the single market or if Remain wins an EU ref2 and if Unionist parties win a majority at Holyrood in 2021 as polls suggest is possible indyref2 could be a decade or more away
Westminster will not agree to another Independence Referendum during this Parliament.
That is a very strong statement - it is possible it may, unlikely as it seems
Has anyone considered the possibility that the outcome of the next general election may be another Conservative / Liberal Democrat coalition?
No, because I cannot see the LDs in my lifetime agreeing to another coalition with the Tories. They learned the hard way their voters don't want them to be in the middle and don't reward them for compromising.
On the other hand, the voters that are currently sticking with them are mostly the ones who weren't too bothered by the previous coalition. It's those who are no longer supporting the party who didn't like it and they're probably not coming back in the near to medium term.
DUP not voting with government against Labour amendment. DUP threatening to vote against the budget DUP Brexit spokesman with an eviscerating article in the Telegraph about May.
It's not a large jump to see them withdrawing confidence, if the reports on the deal are right. Labour puts down a confidence motion Government loses it.
What happens next
Mrs May announces that she will lead the Conservative Party into the election to secure her version of brexit.?
And I win £120 off archer101au if that election takes place with May as Tory leader.
I don't want to win this bet. I hope a deal can be agreed that is acceptable to the majority of the electorate. A soft boiled Breggsit for me please. (For soft boiled eggs I recommend Delia's method. 1 minute in simmering water followed by 6 minutes off the heat with the lid on).
DUP not voting with government against Labour amendment. DUP threatening to vote against the budget DUP Brexit spokesman with an eviscerating article in the Telegraph about May.
It's not a large jump to see them withdrawing confidence, if the reports on the deal are right. Labour puts down a confidence motion Government loses it.
What happens next
Mrs May announces that she will lead the Conservative Party into the election to secure her version of brexit.?
The woman who blew a 20% opinion poll lead in four weeks? Good luck with that,,,
But if she does? If she says she's not resigning, and there is no obvious other group that can get a Confidence motion passed...
It's possible that the DUP do what you think, and it results in a new Conservative leader being installed. But it's far from certain.
There are a lot of roadblocks along the way that could lead to an outcome very different to that which the DUP desires, and I think that's why - while they might leave the C&S arrangement and therefore precipitate an internal challenge to Mrs May - I think a Confidence Motion in the House being passed is still a long odds bet.
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Care to explain how that works. As a member and have a vote for her successor I am interested to know how David Davis is crowned without my vote
It requires that:
1. Theresa May falls on her sword. 2. Only one set of nomination papers is submitted.
The first is unlikely, but possible. The second is highly unlikely. Not impossible, but it would require the various factions in the Conservative Party to unite around a candidate.
14 days to pass a confidence vote or it's an election. Think about that situation. Tory MP's either pick a single candidate bypassing the members who the DUP would support or it's a general election.
TMay should stand aside in favour of Arlene Foster, let her see how she gets on.
DUP not voting with government against Labour amendment. DUP threatening to vote against the budget DUP Brexit spokesman with an eviscerating article in the Telegraph about May.
It's not a large jump to see them withdrawing confidence, if the reports on the deal are right. Labour puts down a confidence motion Government loses it.
What happens next
Mrs May announces that she will lead the Conservative Party into the election to secure her version of brexit.?
And I win £120 off archer101au if that election takes place with May as Tory leader.
I don't want to win this bet. I hope a deal can be agreed that is acceptable to the majority of the electorate. A soft boiled Breggsit for me please. (For soft boiled eggs I recommend Delia's method. 1 minute in simmering water followed by 6 minutes off the heat with the lid on).
Indyref2 could happen by next summer if we Leave the EU with No Deal and on the latest polls Yes would have a 50% chance of winning it.
Otherwise if we get a transition period and withdrawal agreement or and move towards a FTA or stay in the single market or if Remain wins an EU ref2 and if Unionist parties win a majority at Holyrood in 2021 as polls suggest is possible indyref2 could be a decade or more away
Westminster will not agree to another Independence Referendum during this Parliament.
And risk Sturgeon holding one anyway and declaring UDI if she wins it?
If No Deal Sturgeon will certainly hold another independence referendum one way or another, though I doubt No Deal gets through Parliament anyway
What is more important to the people of GB, the UK or Ireland?
Ill give an honest answer to your question. I’ll take on anybody’s questions.
I’m sure there’s a lot of racial hatred in large parts of mainland U.K. to the southern Irish, and as existence of NI irks the southern Irish so much, it makes some English and Scots quite fond of it for that reason.
London also gives more to NI than to Brussels (11B net v 9B net ey) that makes an United Ireland impossible.
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Davis would not be unopposed if he had no plan for the backstop better than May's, indeed May would likely survive a No confidence vote
Learn how to count as LBJ said , without the DUP she would lose a no confidence vote , and there would be 14 days to get a PM who could bring the DUP back onside or there's an election.
You are talking of a vnoc in the government
How is this to come about
It would be proposed by one of the opposition parties in the house if the DUP withdrew their support.
If the LDs thought Mrs May would deliver a soft Brexit, how many of them would turn up to the vote? And would the SNP MP in - say - North East Fife particularly want an election where he's defending his majority of two... Much better to fail to be there.
I'm not saying it won't happen (it might), but I think it's by no means certain that the Conservative Party would lose the Confidence Vote.
Come on seriously , LD and SNP Mp's would vote confidence in a TORY government. Think what that would do to both those parties at the next election. Labour would destroy them both.
Also, don't discount institutional memory. The last time an SNP vote of no confidence brought down a government they were all but eliminated.
A recent poll showed that for Leavers they would ditch NI and Scotland for their precious... but this was later denounced by Leavers as a voodoo poll and therefore worthless, but it seems that the majority of people prefer Remain to No-Deal.
In short, you pays your money and you takes your choice...
'Ditch' is perjorative. A united Ireland and an independent Scotland would be pleasing for many. I don't understand the sentimental attachment to the Union.
What is more important to the people of GB, the UK or Ireland?
Ill give an honest answer to your question. I’ll take on anybody’s questions.
I’m sure there’s a lot of racial hatred in large parts of mainland U.K. to the southern Irish, and as existence of NI irks the southern Irish so much, it makes some English and Scots quite fond of it for that reason.
London also gives more to NI than to Brussels (11B net v 9B net ey) that makes an United Ireland impossible.
Ireland's quite a wealthy country these days, and they've just received a large check from Apple, so I don't think it's impossible.
(Although, I would grant you, it's pretty unlikely.)
What is more important to the people of GB, the UK or Ireland?
Ill give an honest answer to your question. I’ll take on anybody’s questions.
I’m sure there’s a lot of racial hatred in large parts of mainland U.K. to the southern Irish, and as existence of NI irks the southern Irish so much, it makes some English and Scots quite fond of it for that reason.
London also gives more to NI than to Brussels (11B net v 9B net ey) that makes an United Ireland impossible.
Ireland's quite a wealthy country these days, and they've just received a large check from Apple, so I don't think it's impossible.
(Although, I would grant you, it's pretty unlikely.)
How much of the 11B can they match?
This is actually quite a serious discussion, if you consider even the likes of Peter Robinson can imagine a referendum (that bloody word again) at some point, the ref could be decided by how much of that 11B the south could match.
DUP not voting with government against Labour amendment. DUP threatening to vote against the budget DUP Brexit spokesman with an eviscerating article in the Telegraph about May.
It's not a large jump to see them withdrawing confidence, if the reports on the deal are right. Labour puts down a confidence motion Government loses it.
What happens next
Mrs May announces that she will lead the Conservative Party into the election to secure her version of brexit.?
And I win £120 off archer101au if that election takes place with May as Tory leader.
I don't want to win this bet. I hope a deal can be agreed that is acceptable to the majority of the electorate. A soft boiled Breggsit for me please. (For soft boiled eggs I recommend Delia's method. 1 minute in simmering water followed by 6 minutes off the heat with the lid on).
DUP not voting with government against Labour amendment. DUP threatening to vote against the budget DUP Brexit spokesman with an eviscerating article in the Telegraph about May.
It's not a large jump to see them withdrawing confidence, if the reports on the deal are right. Labour puts down a confidence motion Government loses it.
What happens next
Mrs May announces that she will lead the Conservative Party into the election to secure her version of brexit.?
And I win £120 off archer101au if that election takes place with May as Tory leader.
I don't want to win this bet. I hope a deal can be agreed that is acceptable to the majority of the electorate. A soft boiled Breggsit for me please. (For soft boiled eggs I recommend Delia's method. 1 minute in simmering water followed by 6 minutes off the heat with the lid on).
A recent poll showed that for Leavers they would ditch NI and Scotland for their precious... but this was later denounced by Leavers as a voodoo poll and therefore worthless, but it seems that the majority of people prefer Remain to No-Deal.
In short, you pays your money and you takes your choice...
'Ditch' is perjorative. A united Ireland and an independent Scotland would be pleasing for many. I don't understand the sentimental attachment to the Union.
Pleasing for nats and not Irish Republicans absolutely not pleasing for Ulster Protestants and Scottish Unionists and deal with Brexit and an independent Scotland nigh on impossible.
Plus the poll assumes No Deal and Scotland automatically voting for independence, not necessarily the case on Sunday Survation had it Yes 52% No 48% with No Deal, Panelbase No 52% Yes 48% with No Deal. It also assumes the majority of the UK shares the majority of Leave voters enthusiasm for No Deal, they do not, not one poll has No Deal preferred to Remain and most have Remain at least 10% ahead of No Deal on a forced choice. Just over 10% of Leave voters in 2016 would switch to Remain if the only Brexit on offer was No Deal, they are the Leave voters who would also be happy with EFTA/EEA
DUP not voting with government against Labour amendment. DUP threatening to vote against the budget DUP Brexit spokesman with an eviscerating article in the Telegraph about May.
It's not a large jump to see them withdrawing confidence, if the reports on the deal are right. Labour puts down a confidence motion Government loses it.
What happens next
Mrs May announces that she will lead the Conservative Party into the election to secure her version of brexit.?
And I win £120 off archer101au if that election takes place with May as Tory leader.
I don't want to win this bet. I hope a deal can be agreed that is acceptable to the majority of the electorate. A soft boiled Breggsit for me please. (For soft boiled eggs I recommend Delia's method. 1 minute in simmering water followed by 6 minutes off the heat with the lid on).
I will happily pay £120 to watch the Tories get obliterated at a GE with May as leader!
[TMay] agreed the backstop even though the DUP had told her they couldn't support it.
Is that how it went down? My understanding was more like that there are two ways to achieve the backstop - border in the Irish Sea and Customs Union - and the DUP told her they couldn't support the first one. The problem is that most of her party have told her they can't support the second one, so since then everything's been stuck while she tries to decide which of the two she's going to screw.
And how delightful that May is in this position all of her own making.
She was the one who screwed up the election after she started threatening her own voters.
She was the one who said "Brexit Means Brexit" and all that bullsh*t to sucker in Leavers only to then sell them down the river (did she seriously think they would take her betrayal lying down?)
She was the one who humiliated herself and the country by flying off to see Junker in the middle of the night and then agreed the backstop even though the DUP had told her they couldn't support it.
She was the one who betrayed David Davis and his CETA plan while sneakily cooking up Chequers with Robbins.
Never has a politician been more hoist by their own petard than Theresa May....
May was right after she became PM that Brexit had to be delivered by the Leavers - that is why she put DD, Boris and Fox in place. But then because it was obvious that there needed to be a showdown with the EU with a real threat and risk of no deal, she went back and undermined them and eventually took over completely, simply because she didn't have the guts to face down the EU and risk a crisis.
Selling out on Brexit is never going to 'solve' the problem. This is May's failure. May's backstop. Trying to blame the Leavers for a bad Brexit won't work as at every step they told May not to do what she was doing. The DUP delivering the coup de grace for the Tory party is probably the most merciful outcome because if the voters ever get hold of them....
[TMay] agreed the backstop even though the DUP had told her they couldn't support it.
Is that how it went down? My understanding was more like that there are two ways to achieve the backstop - border in the Irish Sea and Customs Union - and the DUP told her they couldn't support the first one. The problem is that most of her party have told her they can't support the second one, so since then everything's been stuck while she tries to decide which of the two she's going to screw.
Not exactly. May tried to agree the NI backstop. When the DUP stopped her she re-worded it as an all UK backstop, and gave an express commitment in the December agreement that no new regulatory barriers would be erected between NI and GB. This of course was quite impossible but May wanted her breakthrough, so Mrs Kick The Can Down The Road signed off.
The December Agreement did not mention a customs union, nor did it mention SM membership for NI. But having conceded Barnier knew he had her on the run and pushed home the advantage.
The new all UK-backstop involves GB and NI operating on different regulations so is in breach of her promises to the DUP and the December agreement. The EU will not allow a whole UK backstop to include full CU and SM access for the whole UK because that will allow the UK to retain the 'benefits' of the SM without the four 'freedoms'. The UK being in a CU with the EU does not solve the NI border unless at least NI is fully aligned with the SM, but the EU won't allow the whole UK to remain aligned.
Facts are, there was no way to ever achieve a backstop. It was only ever a trap, to ensure that the UK was forced into EEA/CU at the end of the transition. And the DUP and ERG have called her really very obvious bluff.
Comments
1. Mrs May goes to Her Majesty (thanks Charles) and resigns.
or
2. Mrs May decides to tough it out running a minority administration.
If 1 happens, then David Davis might take over. But it seems unlikely the Conservative Party would elect a new leader without a contest.
If 2 happens, then you need to ask if the letters go in to the '22 committee. Let's assume they do. Well, there's still no guarantee that Mrs May doesn't win the confidence vote. And if she doesn't, there'll be a full blown leadership election. (In which case, I reckon an Article 50 Extension becomes a near certainty, and a number of PBers lose their shirts.)
But May will resign if her deal is voted down. She will not try for EEA.
However, Boris FO to business and the threat to jit manufacturing moved me to a Chequers style deal
You are one of several hard brexiteers who are hitting out as your idea of brexit is not shared by the majority, indeed it is a minority view
I do not want to remain but Norway or similar is fine by me
However, if you push too much a second referendum becomes more than possible and you will end up still in the EU
Who is most likely to do a Boris and agree to back it, see if anyone else leaves, then decide to change their mind and then act like they never agreed to it in the first place?
Expectation is 4 week leadership campaign
Hunt the remainder candidate
Simply, I can't see Kenneth Clarke, Anna Soubry, Justine Greening, Sarah Woolaston, Amber Rudd or a couple of others just rolling over and accepting no contest at all.
Boris Johnson? JRM? Leadsom?
How is this to come about
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-nvsen-2.html
My idea of Brexit is the one Theresa May sold to me (leaving SM and CU, doing free trade deals, etc...) - Anybody that's noticed me around these parts for the past twelve years will know the one thing I hate more than anything is being taken for a fool - And in the 2017 general election and subsequently Theresa May took me for a fool.
She and her lousy party won't get that chance again...
Hagues/Howard as caretaker can only happen if the DUP return confidence in another vote.
Clarke/Sourbry et all , would have to decide to support a DUP sponsored PM or allow an election which would almost certainly lead to Corbyn.
Playing russian roulette with the DUP is nuts
"Recent examples suggest that previous
Prime Ministers have not offered their
resignations until there was a situation
in which clear advice could be given to
the Sovereign on who should be asked
to form a government. It remains to be
seen whether or not these examples will
be regarded in future as having established
a constitutional convention."
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/60641/cabinet-manual.pdf
Lab - 257
SNP - 35
LD - 12
DUP - 10
Independent - 8
= 322
Plus 4 PC and 1 green.
In reality, a couple of the Independents might vote with the Govt or abstain, but it won't matter. They'll be outvoted if the DUP vote against them...
It would be an incredibly gutsy call by them, not least because if it goes wrong, then they end up with new elections that might not be entirely to their advantage.
What if Mrs May does not step down and leads the Conservatives to UK-wide victory?
What if Jeremy Corbyn makes more gains and the DUP aren't enough to provide the Conservatives with a majority?
The only reason they would threaten to do this (which, by the way, would also mean yet another set of elections on the old boundaries...), would be if they thought it would ensure that Mrs May stepped down and they got a Conservative leader more to their liking. But there's no guarantee of that at all.
Ireland has been a curse for ever. Where would that leave Eire ? Get tuff!
I'm not saying it won't happen (it might), but I think it's by no means certain that the Conservative Party would lose the Confidence Vote.
So anything would be better than accepting NI in the CM with GB out, it would be a staging post to a united Ireland.
The Tory MP's would have a choice , either support May and have an election within a few weeks , or ditch her . I'd be fairly certain which way they'd jump.
Also remember it was made very clear the confidence and supply arrangement was between the parties , not with May herself.
Hence Williamson signing it.
She was the one who screwed up the election after she started threatening her own voters.
She was the one who said "Brexit Means Brexit" and all that bullsh*t to sucker in Leavers only to then sell them down the river (did she seriously think they would take her betrayal lying down?)
She was the one who humiliated herself and the country by flying off to see Junker in the middle of the night and then agreed the backstop even though the DUP had told her they couldn't support it.
She was the one who betrayed David Davis and his CETA plan while sneakily cooking up Chequers with Robbins.
Never has a politician been more hoist by their own petard than Theresa May....
But I can't see how you avoid at least the first round of voting amongst the MPs.
And I also suspect that if you had such an election today, then there would probably be only one Remainer candidate (say Hunt), and a couple of Leavers. If Hunt "won" the first round, you'd still need subsequent rounds.
Though, of course, if there are Tory plotters behind it then there is every chance a handful of Tories will have urgent dental operations...
Think what that would do to both those parties at the next election. Labour would destroy them both.
And I can't see them actually tabling a Confidence Motion. They might walk away from the Confidence & Supply agreement, therefore encouraging the ERG to pull the trigger on a leadership challenge. But I can't see them risking an actual election.
Tory MP's would need to elect someone the DUP have said is acceptable
The idea SNP and Lib-Dems would give the Tories (The Tories of all parties????) a vote of confidence is ridiculous...
(Re Cabinet my understanding is that there are very few ex officio members of Cabinet. The others are Secretaries of State “usually attending” Cabinet)
In short, you pays your money and you takes your choice...
BJ, Raab, Hunt, Cleverly, don’t know Leadsom or others
DUP not voting with government against Labour amendment.
DUP threatening to vote against the budget
DUP Brexit spokesman with an eviscerating article in the Telegraph about May.
It's not a large jump to see them withdrawing confidence, if the reports on the deal are right.
Labour puts down a confidence motion
Government loses it.
What happens next
I actually think May is safe now though, she has her CU fudge agreed with EU. Yes technically accepting EU law and rules, with all Brexit means is withdraw from influencing those laws and rules, is 100% definition of vassal state, but I always suspected both parliament, and if it’s put to it the country, would embrace vassal state and leave us no more out the EU than Norway.
I don't think the MP's would allow her to do that. If she tried /refused to resign there'd be 42 letters in and she'd lose the vote.
Labour would win an election in those circumstances hence it won't happen.
Have a good night's rest everyone
Good night folks
I don't want to win this bet. I hope a deal can be agreed that is acceptable to the majority of the electorate. A soft boiled Breggsit for me please. (For soft boiled eggs I recommend Delia's method. 1 minute in simmering water followed by 6 minutes off the heat with the lid on).
It's possible that the DUP do what you think, and it results in a new Conservative leader being installed. But it's far from certain.
There are a lot of roadblocks along the way that could lead to an outcome very different to that which the DUP desires, and I think that's why - while they might leave the C&S arrangement and therefore precipitate an internal challenge to Mrs May - I think a Confidence Motion in the House being passed is still a long odds bet.
http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/norwich-city-shareholder-delia-smith-to-fund-coach-travel-to-brexit-protest-march-1-5725818
If No Deal Sturgeon will certainly hold another independence referendum one way or another, though I doubt No Deal gets through Parliament anyway
I’m sure there’s a lot of racial hatred in large parts of mainland U.K. to the southern Irish, and as existence of NI irks the southern Irish so much, it makes some English and Scots quite fond of it for that reason.
London also gives more to NI than to Brussels (11B net v 9B net ey) that makes an United Ireland impossible.
(Although, I would grant you, it's pretty unlikely.)
This is actually quite a serious discussion, if you consider even the likes of Peter Robinson can imagine a referendum (that bloody word again) at some point, the ref could be decided by how much of that 11B the south could match.
Surprise!
Plus the poll assumes No Deal and Scotland automatically voting for independence, not necessarily the case on Sunday Survation had it Yes 52% No 48% with No Deal, Panelbase No 52% Yes 48% with No Deal. It also assumes the majority of the UK shares the majority of Leave voters enthusiasm for No Deal, they do not, not one poll has No Deal preferred to Remain and most have Remain at least 10% ahead of No Deal on a forced choice. Just over 10% of Leave voters in 2016 would switch to Remain if the only Brexit on offer was No Deal, they are the Leave voters who would also be happy with EFTA/EEA
Selling out on Brexit is never going to 'solve' the problem. This is May's failure. May's backstop. Trying to blame the Leavers for a bad Brexit won't work as at every step they told May not to do what she was doing. The DUP delivering the coup de grace for the Tory party is probably the most merciful outcome because if the voters ever get hold of them....
The December Agreement did not mention a customs union, nor did it mention SM membership for NI. But having conceded Barnier knew he had her on the run and pushed home the advantage.
The new all UK-backstop involves GB and NI operating on different regulations so is in breach of her promises to the DUP and the December agreement. The EU will not allow a whole UK backstop to include full CU and SM access for the whole UK because that will allow the UK to retain the 'benefits' of the SM without the four 'freedoms'. The UK being in a CU with the EU does not solve the NI border unless at least NI is fully aligned with the SM, but the EU won't allow the whole UK to remain aligned.
Facts are, there was no way to ever achieve a backstop. It was only ever a trap, to ensure that the UK was forced into EEA/CU at the end of the transition. And the DUP and ERG have called her really very obvious bluff.