To put the 5,000 into context that's less than 0.5% of financial services employment and rather less than the actual job losses from bank branch closures of recent years.
You’re comparing apples with cabbages.
Not at all financial services jobs are in the City.
I type this from a financial institution based in Manchester who is being relocated to Frankfurt.
Is the whole institution going? And what type is it? Are you moving to live there or just work during the week? And, this is not meant to sound rude, why you? Legal/compliance people are not usually the key people needed to be present to enable financial services to be provided.
Just one of the major business units.
We do all sorts, investments and closers for M&As mostly. We are described as a concierge service.
I’ll be working 4 days a week in Germany and then commuting back for the weekends.
The reason I’m moving is for a multitude of reasons, I can speak fluent German, and the German regulatory environment is complex/different. We don’t want to break the law, at the start by accident, so it was determined we needed a legal and regulatory presence there from the beginning.
What might be legal in the UK can be illegal in German.
This will be reviewed after a while.
I know quite a lot of employees won’t do well in prison.
Super totally off-topic but I am slowly reading through the Candy/Holyoake judgement by Lady Nugee's other half and it reads like a thriller. Very entertaining. For those quiet moments.
Super totally off-topic but I am slowly reading through the Candy/Holyoake judgement by Lady Nugee's other half and it reads like a thriller. Very entertaining. For those quiet moments.
I see 53,000 predominatly African-American voter registrations in Georgia are being blocked due to a voter supression measure designed to block voter registration.
I'm sure Charles will along to tell us how that's totally fine as there was a debate or some such.
I don’t know the details of this case. The fact that you consistently describe them as “voter suppression” leads me to conclude you don’t have an open mind
My view is simple: preserving the integrity of the ballot is more important than efforts to register new voters. Asking for proof of ID is not unreasonable. If a certain group in society don’t have ID find out why and fix that - don’t deal with the symptoms
As for your snide comment about the debate you said the supporters of the law in ND needed to make a case - I just pointed out that since it was a law they had probably debated it before passing
I suspect that the description as ‘voter suppression’ is based on the long and continuing recoded of the Republican Party in this respect. There are many stories like this (and a litany of court cases, which is one of the reasons to oppose partisan operators like Kavanaugh). Oh, here’s another one.... https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/campaign-worker-arrested-after-iding-his-candidate-as-democrat
To put the 5,000 into context that's less than 0.5% of financial services employment and rather less than the actual job losses from bank branch closures of recent years.
You’re comparing apples with cabbages.
Not at all financial services jobs are in the City.
I type this from a financial institution based in Manchester who is being relocated to Frankfurt.
So what's your estimate of the number of financial services jobs to be lost ?
Depends on the deal we get or don’t get.
Even Chequers doesn’t cover (financial) services.
If we exclude retail banking which is undergoing massive changes whether we voted Remain or Leave, the estimates I’ve seen is from 10,000 (best case) and 25,000 (middling deal) to 60,000 (sustained no deal).
That’s direct jobs, and doesn’t factor in secondary sectors that rely on FS, Banking, and Insurance.
It also doesn’t factor in new jobs that will be created by having more flexibility in regulating our services and financial services regime, and the services aspects of new trade deals.
To put the 5,000 into context that's less than 0.5% of financial services employment and rather less than the actual job losses from bank branch closures of recent years.
You’re comparing apples with cabbages.
Not at all financial services jobs are in the City.
I type this from a financial institution based in Manchester who is being relocated to Frankfurt.
Is the whole institution going? And what type is it? Are you moving to live there or just work during the week? And, this is not meant to sound rude, why you? Legal/compliance people are not usually the key people needed to be present to enable financial services to be provided.
Just one of the major business units.
We do all sorts, investments and closers for M&As mostly. We are described as a concierge service.
I’ll be working 4 days a week in Germany and then commuting back for the weekends.
The reason I’m moving is for a multitude of reasons, I can speak fluent German, and the German regulatory environment is complex/different. We don’t want to break the law, at the start by accident, so it was determined we needed a legal and regulatory presence there from the beginning.
What might be legal in the UK can be illegal in German.
This will be reviewed after a while.
I know quite a lot of employees won’t do well in prison.
well dome Mr Eagles
I did the Monday to Friday commute to Germany for 5 years.
My advice would be make sure you get a flat, living in a hotel is soul destroying it also means you can clear airports faster as your clothes just sit in one place. Also dont spend all your time working to fill in the evenings get out and do stuff as during winter it turns a bit grim. vary your routine and find reasons to skip a week and stay at home otherwise youll lose contact with lots of people.
Mine is that by the end of the day a non limited Customs Union is kicked into touch.
Or
That several ministers resign
The obvious fudge is a time-limited target for a new regime written into the treaties for, say, 2025 or 2027 with both sides committed to establishing the infrastructure and systems to make it work by that time rather than it just being a soft review point that will never end.
Super totally off-topic but I am slowly reading through the Candy/Holyoake judgement by Lady Nugee's other half and it reads like a thriller. Very entertaining. For those quiet moments.
I seem to recall that Private Eye has ‘views” about the participants in this case!
As does Mr Justice Nugee!!
My understanding , although I haven’t ploughed through the case yet is that Mr Justice Nugee must have gone home at night feeling that his good lady, as an MP, mixed with comparatively upright and honest people.
Gove hasn’t, however. I’ve said before and I’ll say it again that our agriculture policy looks to be much better post Brexit, and that’s down to him.
Part of me wonders just how much Fox’s failings (how many trade deals has he secured? One?) are to do with May’s position on the Customs Union.
Don't wonder, a friend who has just quit his department confirmed it to me in January. She said the PM and Robbins were disturbed by how little progress Fox had made late last year in replicating and extending existing EU trade deals and that was the trigger to put the customs union on the table as it would mean we would retain all 43 EU trade deals we are already party to. It is his failing that means we will stay in the customs union for another 3-5 years at least.
Her other issue was the naivety with which Fox operated wrt the WTO, he just assumed that we would maintain all of our existing quotas etc... and that the major players would simply support our membership without asking any questions. That was never going to be the case and belatedly the government has been working on getting the US and other Anglo nations on side to make the process work for us but it should have been done from day one.
To put the 5,000 into context that's less than 0.5% of financial services employment and rather less than the actual job losses from bank branch closures of recent years.
You’re comparing apples with cabbages.
Not at all financial services jobs are in the City.
I type this from a financial institution based in Manchester who is being relocated to Frankfurt.
Is the whole institution going? And what type is it? Are you moving to live there or just work during the week? And, this is not meant to sound rude, why you? Legal/compliance people are not usually the key people needed to be present to enable financial services to be provided.
Just one of the major business units.
We do all sorts, investments and closers for M&As mostly. We are described as a concierge service.
I’ll be working 4 days a week in Germany and then commuting back for the weekends.
The reason I’m moving is for a multitude of reasons, I can speak fluent German, and the German regulatory environment is complex/different. We don’t want to break the law, at the start by accident, so it was determined we needed a legal and regulatory presence there from the beginning.
What might be legal in the UK can be illegal in German.
This will be reviewed after a while.
I know quite a lot of employees won’t do well in prison.
well dome Mr Eagles
I did the Monday to Friday commute to Germany for 5 years.
My advice would be make sure you get a flat, living in a hotel is soul destroying it also means you can clear airports faster as your clothes just sit in one place. Also dont spend all your time working to fill in the evenings get out and do stuff as during winter it turns a bit grim. vary your routine and find reasons to skip a week and stay at home otherwise youll lose contact with lots of people.
To put the 5,000 into context that's less than 0.5% of financial services employment and rather less than the actual job losses from bank branch closures of recent years.
You’re comparing apples with cabbages.
Not at all financial services jobs are in the City.
I type this from a financial institution based in Manchester who is being relocated to Frankfurt.
So what's your estimate of the number of financial services jobs to be lost ?
Depends on the deal we get or don’t get.
Even Chequers doesn’t cover (financial) services.
If we exclude retail banking which is undergoing massive changes whether we voted Remain or Leave, the estimates I’ve seen is from 10,000 (best case) and 25,000 (middling deal) to 60,000 (sustained no deal).
That’s direct jobs, and doesn’t factor in secondary sectors that rely on FS, Banking, and Insurance.
so that means we have up to 60k people who can now work in the NHS
There’s a reason I didn’t follow in my father’s footsteps.
I think I’d bankrupt the NHS with the negligence claims brought against me.
I go all poncey boots Gaylord at the sight of blood and the germaphobe in me wouldn’t like it either.
Just one letter away from making your relocation a terrible experience.
An American and Russian astronaut are making an emergency landing after a booster rocket failed when taking them to the international space station. Both are safe
To put the 5,000 into context that's less than 0.5% of financial services employment and rather less than the actual job losses from bank branch closures of recent years.
You’re comparing apples with cabbages.
Not at all financial services jobs are in the City.
I type this from a financial institution based in Manchester who is being relocated to Frankfurt.
Is the whole institution going? And what type is services to be provided.
Just one of the major business units.
We do all sorts, investments and closers for M&As mostly. We are described as a concierge service.
I’ll be working 4 days a week in Germany and then commuting back for the weekends.
The reason I’m moving is there from the beginning.
What might be legal in the UK can be illegal in German.
This will be reviewed after a while.
I know quite a lot of employees won’t do well in prison.
well dome Mr Eagles
I did the Monday to Friday commute to Germany for 5 years.
My advice would be make sure you get a flat, living in a hotel is soul destroying it also means you can clear airports faster as your clothes just sit in one place. Also dont spend all your time working to fill in the evenings get out and do stuff as during winter it turns a bit grim. vary your routine and find reasons to skip a week and stay at home otherwise youll lose contact with lots of people.
It is scaring the crap out of me.
Will my kids even recognise me?
that is one of the hard parts Mrs B was left during the week with 3 kids. I was about your age when I was doing it so unfortunately you do miss key dates in their lives.
On the other hand if your employer is half decent you can negotiate several flights a year where they come to see you. One of the advantages is if you have a car you can go skiing in Bavaria or Austria really easily and take the family with you.
We also had lots of holidays in Germany on the cheap.
To put the 5,000 into context that's less than 0.5% of financial services employment and rather less than the actual job losses from bank branch closures of recent years.
You’re comparing apples with cabbages.
Not at all financial services jobs are in the City.
I type this from a financial institution based in Manchester who is being relocated to Frankfurt.
Is the whole institution going? And what type is it? Are you moving to live there or just work during the week? And, this is not meant to sound rude, why you? Legal/compliance people are not usually the key people needed to be present to enable financial services to be provided.
Just one of the major business units.
We do all sorts, investments and closers for M&As mostly. We are described as a concierge service.
I’ll be working 4 days a week in Germany and then commuting back for the weekends.
What might be legal in the UK can be illegal in German.
This will be reviewed after a while.
I know quite a lot of employees won’t do well in prison.
well dome Mr Eagles
I did the Monday to Friday commute to Germany for 5 years.
My advice would be make sure you get a flat, living in a hotel is soul destroying it also means you can clear airports faster as your clothes just sit in one place. Also dont spend all your time working to fill in the evenings get out and do stuff as during winter it turns a bit grim. vary your routine and find reasons to skip a week and stay at home otherwise youll lose contact with lots of people.
It is scaring the crap out of me.
Will my kids even recognise me?
A relation, a project manager for a large company, who lived in the West Country, was shunted round the South of England for four or five years. Got fed up and moved to Cambridgeshire near where he expected to be for the next few years. He was then posted to a job in Holland; Stansted Airport early Monday, back Thursday night. After three months he was more than fed up so applied for and got a job in New Zealand. Moved there, bag and baggage and his new work colleagues think he’s crazy to drive 20 minutes to and from work!
To put the 5,000 into context that's less than 0.5% of financial services employment and rather less than the actual job losses from bank branch closures of recent years.
You’re comparing apples with cabbages.
Not at all financial services jobs are in the City.
I type this from a financial institution based in Manchester who is being relocated to Frankfurt.
Is the whole institution going? And what type is it? Are you moving to live there or just work during the week? And, this is not meant to sound rude, why you? Legal/compliance people are not usually the key people needed to be present to enable financial services to be provided.
Just one of the major business units.
We do all sorts, investments and closers for M&As mostly. We are described as a concierge service.
I’ll be working 4 days a week in Germany and then commuting back for the weekends.
The reason I’m moving is for a multitude of reasons, I can speak fluent German, and the German regulatory environment is complex/different. We don’t want to break the law, at the start by accident, so it was determined we needed a legal and regulatory presence there from the beginning.
What might be legal in the UK can be illegal in German.
This will be reviewed after a while.
I know quite a lot of employees won’t do well in prison.
Thanks. Presumably you will need to have local legal advice - unless you're also a qualified German lawyer.
Will you become a German taxpayer/resident?
If it's too personal a question, no need to answer. Just interested.
May was right after she became PM that Brexit had to be delivered by the Leavers - that is why she put DD, Boris and Fox in place. But then because it was
Selling out on Brexit is never going to 'solve' the problem. This is May's failure. May's backstop. Trying to blame the Leavers for a bad Brexit won't work as at every step they told May not to do what she was doing. The DUP delivering the coup de grace for the Tory party is probably the most merciful outcome because if the voters ever get hold of them....
The point you seem to be missing - although for Brexiters it has clearly become a habit - is that "telling people what not to do" is no longer sufficient, once the referendum had been won. They may have spent a lifetime carping from the sidelines, but the Leave vote should have been their opportunity to step up to the plate of real responsibility.
But of course none of them wanted to face the inevitable compromises that trying to reconcile their obsession with reality would require.
And for every Brexiter politician that might think for a moment of being sensible, there will be a nuttier one behind them just itching to point a finger at the 'sell out'.
The point that is being missed is that the Leavers always had a plan, CETA, and that it was May and the Remainers that deliberately stopped them implementing this. It was the Remainers who went on and on about Soft Brexit that did not exist and wasted two years with cherry picking plans. The backstop concession has killed any possible plan, including any compromise that the Remainers thought they could arrange.
BB and Boris etc resigned because May was on the wrong course. They would I am sure love to take over - but they can't because May is protected by the Remainers.
Whichever way the Remainers want to spin it, the outcome of the EU negotiations is proving that they were wrong. Wrong to think that a Soft Brexit fudge was possible, wrong to say that we needed to keep making concessions, wrong to say that we should not prepare for and if necessary enact no deal.
Remainers will own May's deal. Leavers will vote it down and deliver Brexit. By the time we get to that vote, May's deal will be so lacking in credibility and support that it will be a relief to kill it and finally get on and enact the result of the referendum.
You are simply rewriting history to suit your argument. Far from being any sort of coherent plan, there was simply froth and mostly silence where there should have been some hard thinking. And to say Boris resigned out of principle is just laughable - it is widely known that he led the toast to the Chequers proposal and only resigned when he saw the risk of DD stealing his supporters.
Gove hasn’t, however. I’ve said before and I’ll say it again that our agriculture policy looks to be much better post Brexit, and that’s down to him.
Part of me wonders just how much Fox’s failings (how many trade deals has he secured? One?) are to do with May’s position on the Customs Union.
Don't wonder, a friend who has just quit his department confirmed it to me in January. She said the PM and Robbins were disturbed by how little progress Fox had made late last year in replicating and extending existing EU trade deals and that was the trigger to put the customs union on the table as it would mean we would retain all 43 EU trade deals we are already party to. It is his failing that means we will stay in the customs union for another 3-5 years at least.
Her other issue was the naivety with which Fox operated wrt the WTO, he just assumed that we would maintain all of our existing quotas etc... and that the major players would simply support our membership without asking any questions. That was never going to be the case and belatedly the government has been working on getting the US and other Anglo nations on side to make the process work for us but it should have been done from day one.
Leavers in absolutely fucking useless shower of shit shock.
4 days isn't too bad. I did it to Zurich for a few months, Alanbrooke is right. Make sure you rent a flat rather than hotels, that way you can travel with just your laptop and a few emergency supplies in each direction. You don't even need to take any hand luggage, just a laptop bag. Get your workplace to look into the BA flight pass. If you book J class tickets you can get gold status very quickly, even on short haul.
One thing about PB is that many of us are in the same boat of have been in the past.
that is one of the hard parts Mrs B was left during the week with 3 kids. I was about your age when I was doing it so unfortunately you do miss key dates in their lives.
On the other hand if your employer is half decent you can negotiate several flights a year where they come to see you. One of the advantages is if you have a car you can go skiing in Bavaria or Austria really easily and take the family with you.
We also had lots of holidays in Germany on the cheap.
So the people who think that a short cut to a fresh non-statutory referendum would be a democratic outrage are contemplating changing the Conservative party leadership election rules to allow for a candidate of their choice to be installed in two weeks? You have to admire the intellectual flexibility.
As a sidenote, if the Conservative leadership contest was compressed, outsiders would be seriously disadvantaged and a candidate might win based on a passing spasm of opinion. The first is probably a good thing, the second is probably not.
To put the 5,000 into context that's less than 0.5% of financial services employment and rather less than the actual job losses from bank branch closures of recent years.
You’re comparing apples with cabbages.
Not at all financial services jobs are in the City.
I type this from a financial institution based in Manchester who is being relocated to Frankfurt.
Is the whole institution going? And what type is it? Are you moving to live there or just work during the week? And, this is not meant to sound rude, why you? Legal/compliance people are not usually the key people needed to be present to enable financial services to be provided.
Just one of the major business units.
We do all sorts, investments and closers for M&As mostly. We are described as a concierge service.
I’ll be working 4 days a week in Germany and then commuting back for the weekends.
The reason I’m moving is for a multitude of reasons, I can speak fluent German, and the German regulatory environment is complex/different. We don’t want to break the law, at the start by accident, so it was determined we needed a legal and regulatory presence there from the beginning.
What might be legal in the UK can be illegal in German.
This will be reviewed after a while.
I know quite a lot of employees won’t do well in prison.
well dome Mr Eagles
I did the Monday to Friday commute to Germany for 5 years.
My advice would be make sure you get a flat, living in a hotel is soul destroying it also means you can clear airports faster as your clothes just sit in one place. Also dont spend all your time working to fill in the evenings get out and do stuff as during winter it turns a bit grim. vary your routine and find reasons to skip a week and stay at home otherwise youll lose contact with lots of people.
It is scaring the crap out of me.
Will my kids even recognise me?
Yes. They're all on Skype or Facetime these days. Not the same as being there all the time of course but easier than it would have been back in the day, and kids are used to interacting via screens all the time.
that is one of the hard parts Mrs B was left during the week with 3 kids. I was about your age when I was doing it so unfortunately you do miss key dates in their lives.
On the other hand if your employer is half decent you can negotiate several flights a year where they come to see you. One of the advantages is if you have a car you can go skiing in Bavaria or Austria really easily and take the family with you.
We also had lots of holidays in Germany on the cheap.
To put the 5,000 into context that's less than 0.5% of financial services employment and rather less than the actual job losses from bank branch closures of recent years.
You’re comparing apples with cabbages.
Not at all financial services jobs are in the City.
I type this from a financial institution based in Manchester who is being relocated to Frankfurt.
Is the whole institution going? And what type is it? Are you moving to live there or just work during the week? And, this is not meant to sound rude, why you? Legal/compliance people are not usually the key people needed to be present to enable financial services to be provided.
Just one of the major business units.
We do all sorts, investments and closers for M&As mostly. We are described as a concierge service.
I’ll be working 4 days a week in Germany and then commuting back for the weekends.
What might be legal in the UK can be illegal in German.
This will be reviewed after a while.
I know quite a lot of employees won’t do well in prison.
well dome Mr Eagles
I did the Monday to Friday commute to Germany for 5 years.
My advice would be make sure you get a flat, living in a hotel is soul destroying it also means you can clear airports faster as your clothes just sit in one place. Also dont spend all your time working to fill in the evenings get out and do stuff as during winter it turns a bit grim. vary your routine and find reasons to skip a week and stay at home otherwise youll lose contact with lots of people.
It is scaring the crap out of me.
Will my kids even recognise me?
Yes. They're all on Skype or Facetime these days. Not the same as being there all the time of course but easier than it would have been back in the day, and kids are used to interacting via screens all the time.
Agree; we have grandchildren in Thailand and in Kent. Son-in-Thailand Facetime’s every so often and makes sure children are around. Son-in-Kent rings every so often, and we go there, and it works out about even.
May was right after she became PM that Brexit had to be delivered by the Leavers - that is why she put DD, Boris and Fox in place...
The point you seem to be missing - although for Brexiters it has clearly become a habit - is that "telling people what not to do" is no longer sufficient
The point that is being missed is that the Leavers always had a plan, CETA, and that it was May and the Remainers that deliberately stopped them implementing this.
BB and Boris etc resigned because May was on the wrong course. They would I am sure love to take over - but they can't because May is protected by the Remainers.
Whichever way the Remainers want to spin it, the outcome of the EU negotiations is proving that they were wrong. Wrong to think that a Soft Brexit fudge was possible, wrong to say that we needed to keep making concessions, wrong to say that we should not prepare for and if necessary enact no deal.
Remainers will own May's deal. Leavers will vote it down and deliver Brexit. By the time we get to that vote, May's deal will be so lacking in credibility and support that it will be a relief to kill it and finally get on and enact the result of the referendum.
You are simply rewriting history to suit your argument. Far from being any sort of coherent plan, there was simply froth and mostly silence where there should have been some hard thinking. And to say Boris resigned out of principle is just laughable - it is widely known that he led the toast to the Chequers proposal and only resigned when he saw the risk of DD stealing his supporters.
Absolutely. Boris is an unprincipled chancer.
Listening to leavers on the media they all seem to have this remarkably stupid idea that we should accept a Canada ++ deal but when asked about just in time manufacturing or an Irish border parrot there are solutions but someone else has to find them. I put David Davis and Boris + ERG in that category but most brexiteers seem to have the same blindside
As far as the DUP are concerned I am sure TM will do her best to mitigate their concerns but I believe 'this bloody difficult women' will next week or in November arrive at a deal and put it to parliament, irrespective of the danger to her, as she will see it in the national interest and not a minority view, even in her own party.
She could if necessary call a vnoc in herself which would almost certainly see her win well and then she is in place for the next twelve months.
Lots of high stakes going on but do not underestimate TM for standing firm
that is one of the hard parts Mrs B was left during the week with 3 kids. I was about your age when I was doing it so unfortunately you do miss key dates in their lives.
On the other hand if your employer is half decent you can negotiate several flights a year where they come to see you. One of the advantages is if you have a car you can go skiing in Bavaria or Austria really easily and take the family with you.
We also had lots of holidays in Germany on the cheap.
I’m a single parent so it’ll be down to my parents even more now.
I’m such a lousy father that a few years ago when I went to pick my youngest from nursery his teacher refused to hand him over as she didn’t know who I was/wasn’t his regular picker upper.
I’ve got 8 weeks holiday plus stats and a flights paid for every week.
Blooming 'eck. I wonder if the Launch Escape System was used?
Yes, worked as intended. Crew all safe. With that suspect hole appearing out of nowhere in the Soyuz capsule currently up there, time to speed up commercial crew (SpaceX is ready, NASA is months behind on paperwork !). No doubt it'll be an excuse for yet more delay and cold feet though.. Edit - Did you see the report on the Senate Launch System yesterday ?
May was right after she became PM that Brexit had to be delivered by the Leavers - that is why she put DD, Boris and Fox in place...
The point you seem to be missing - although for Brexiters it has clearly become a habit - is that "telling people what not to do" is no longer sufficient
The point that is being missed is that the Leavers always had a plan, CETA, and that it was May and the Remainers that deliberately stopped them implementing this.
BB and Boris etc resigned because May was on the wrong course. They would I am sure love to take over - but they can't because May is protected by the Remainers.
Whichever way the Remainers want to spin it, the outcome of the EU negotiations is proving that they were wrong. Wrong to think that a Soft Brexit fudge was possible, wrong to say that we needed to keep making concessions, wrong to say that we should not prepare for and if necessary enact no deal.
Remainers will own May's deal. Leavers will vote it down and deliver Brexit. By the time we get to that vote, May's deal will be so lacking in credibility and support that it will be a relief to kill it and finally get on and enact the result of the referendum.
You are simply rewriting history to suit your argument. Far from being any sort of coherent plan, there was simply froth and mostly silence where there should have been some hard thinking. And to say Boris resigned out of principle is just laughable - it is widely known that he led the toast to the Chequers proposal and only resigned when he saw the risk of DD stealing his supporters.
Absolutely. Boris is an unprincipled chancer.
Listening to leavers on the media they all seem to have this remarkably stupid idea that we should accept a Canada ++ deal but when asked about just in time manufacturing or an Irish border parrot there are solutions but someone else has to find them. I put David Davis and Boris + ERG in that category but most brexiteers seem to have the same blindside
As far as the DUP are concerned I am sure TM will do her best to mitigate their concerns but I believe 'this bloody difficult women' will next week or in November arrive at a deal and put it to parliament, irrespective of the danger to her, as she will see it in the national interest and not a minority view, even in her own party.
She could if necessary call a vnoc in herself which would almost certainly see her win well and then she is in place for the next twelve months.
Lots of high stakes going on but do not underestimate TM for standing firm
Are we not faced with two ‘bloody difficult women”?
Gove hasn’t, however. I’ve said before and I’ll say it again that our agriculture policy looks to be much better post Brexit, and that’s down to him.
Part of me wonders just how much Fox’s failings (how many trade deals has he secured? One?) are to do with May’s position on the Customs Union.
Don't wonder, a friend who has just quit his department confirmed it to me in January. She said the PM and Robbins were disturbed by how little progress Fox had made late last year in replicating and extending existing EU trade deals and that was the trigger to put the customs union on the table as it would mean we would retain all 43 EU trade deals we are already party to. It is his failing that means we will stay in the customs union for another 3-5 years at least.
Her other issue was the naivety with which Fox operated wrt the WTO, he just assumed that we would maintain all of our existing quotas etc... and that the major players would simply support our membership without asking any questions. That was never going to be the case and belatedly the government has been working on getting the US and other Anglo nations on side to make the process work for us but it should have been done from day one.
Leavers in absolutely fucking useless shower of shit shock.
So the people who think that a short cut to a fresh non-statutory referendum would be a democratic outrage are contemplating changing the Conservative party leadership election rules to allow for a candidate of their choice to be installed in two weeks? You have to admire the intellectual flexibility.
As a sidenote, if the Conservative leadership contest was compressed, outsiders would be seriously disadvantaged and a candidate might win based on a passing spasm of opinion. The first is probably a good thing, the second is probably not.
It is not quite like that. The conservative mps need to agree to put two candidates to the membership. I would expect Javid and Hunt to seen as unity candidates but Raab could have an outside chance
Well something has to break, to break this deadlock. The EU’s red lines, the UKs border, the Tory party, the govt, the DUP, TM’s premiership. Something has to give. Just a question of what.
Quite so. I had thought TM's premiership would have first, allowing other options to be at least attempted, but no. So now I am thinking it is the UKs border - yes, the government is dependent on the DUP, but it's easier to counter the, with Labour rebels on this issue than mass Tory rebellion.
Telegraph reporting TM to get cabinet to accept that the UK to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed
Another proposal that won't have a majority in parliament.
It will have a majority in Parliament as it virtually matches Labour's policy
Why would that stop them voting against? Their primary goal at the moment is to provoke a GE somehow, not help get a Brexit agreement.
It would not stop Corbyn and his allies voting against, it may stop many of his backbenchers voting against given they agree with the policy and can't stand Corbyn
Enough to counter the ERG and DUP (if they too are against this)? That's a lot of people having to stand up and 'prop up' a Tory government (never mind that it is about a major policy which goes beyond party politics, and if it is not far off Labour policy and prevents no deal it is not as though it means the Tories will be propped up to do anything else).
The DUP don't like the idea of being in a customs union, but it's not one of their red lines, and they would not vote against the government because of it.
May was right after she became PM that Brexit had to be delivered by the Leavers - that is why she put DD, Boris and Fox in place...
The point you seem to be missing - although for Brexiters it has clearly become a habit - is that "telling people what not to do" is no longer sufficient
The point that is being missed is that the Leavers always had a plan, CETA, and that it was May and the Remainers that deliberately stopped them implementing this.
BB and Boris etc resigned because May was on the wrong course. They would I am sure love to take over - but they can't because May is protected by the Remainers.
Whichever way the Remainers want to spin it, the outcome of the EU negotiations is proving that they were wrong. Wrong to think that a Soft Brexit fudge was possible, wrong to say that we needed to keep making concessions, wrong to say that we should not prepare for and if necessary enact no deal.
Remainers will own May's deal. Leavers will vote it down and deliver Brexit. By the time we get to that vote, May's deal will be so lacking in credibility and support that it will be a relief to kill it and finally get on and enact the result of the referendum.
You are simply rewriting history to suit your argument. Far from being any sort of coherent plan, there was simply froth and mostly silence where there should have been some hard thinking. And to say Boris resigned out of principle is just laughable - it is widely known that he led the toast to the Chequers proposal and only resigned when he saw the risk of DD stealing his supporters.
Absolutely. Boris is an unprincipled chancer.
Listening to leavers on the media they all seem to have this remarkably stupid idea that we should accept a Canada ++ deal but when asked about just in time manufacturing or an Irish border parrot there are solutions but someone else has to find them. I put David Davis and Boris + ERG in that category but most brexiteers seem to have the same blindside
As far as the DUP are concerned I am sure TM will do her best to mitigate their concerns but I believe 'this bloody difficult women' will next week or in November arrive at a deal and put it to parliament, irrespective of the danger to her, as she will see it in the national interest and not a minority view, even in her own party.
She could if necessary call a vnoc in herself which would almost certainly see her win well and then she is in place for the next twelve months.
Lots of high stakes going on but do not underestimate TM for standing firm
Are we not faced with two ‘bloody difficult women”?
Thanks. Presumably you will need to have local legal advice - unless you're also a qualified German lawyer.
Will you become a German taxpayer/resident?
If it's too personal a question, no need to answer. Just interested.
Anyway I hope it all goes well for you.
We're using local legal services, I'm not that talented.
Yes as part of the Brexit dividend most of my taxes will now be going to the German government instead of the Treasury.
Obviously I don't know all the details but just based on what you have told me I wouldn't have thought that it was absolutely essential for you to relocate and it might well be that once the new entity is established you could move back, if you wanted to.
I simply say that because with the other entities I know it is business/risk people who have moved rather than legal services and where these have been needed they are being provided locally for obvious reasons.
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
You are talking of a vnoc in the government
How is this to come about
It would be proposed by one of the opposition parties in the house if the DUP withdrew their support.
If the LDs thought Mrs May would deliver a soft Brexit, how many of them would turn up to the vote? And would the SNP MP in - say - North East Fife particularly want an election where he's defending his majority of two... Much better to fail to be there.
I'm not saying it won't happen (it might), but I think it's by no means certain that the Conservative Party would lose the Confidence Vote.
I agree. I think it would be very, very close.
Though, of course, if there are Tory plotters behind it then there is every chance a handful of Tories will have urgent dental operations...
With the clock ticking, it's a bit too much like Russian roulette.
And I can't see them actually tabling a Confidence Motion. They might walk away from the Confidence & Supply agreement, therefore encouraging the ERG to pull the trigger on a leadership challenge. But I can't see them risking an actual election.
So far today we've had
DUP not voting with government against Labour amendment. DUP threatening to vote against the budget DUP Brexit spokesman with an eviscerating article in the Telegraph about May.
It's not a large jump to see them withdrawing confidence, if the reports on the deal are right. Labour puts down a confidence motion Government loses it.
What happens next
If the DUP were simply to withdraw support for the government, the government would likely win a vote of confidence. They would need to actively vote against the government, which might not be to their advantage.
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
You are talking of a vnoc in the government
How is this to come about
It would be proposed by one of the opposition parties in the house if the DUP withdrew their support.
If the LDs thought Mrs May would deliver a soft Brexit, how many of them would turn up to the vote? And would the SNP MP in - say - North East Fife particularly want an election where he's defending his majority of two... Much better to fail to be there.
I'm not saying it won't happen (it might), but I think it's by no means certain that the Conservative Party would lose the Confidence Vote.
I agree. I think it would be very, very close.
Though, of course, if there are Tory plotters behind it then there is every chance a handful of Tories will have urgent dental operations...
With the clock ticking, it's a bit too much like Russian roulette.
And I can't see them actually tabling a Confidence Motion. They might walk away from the Confidence & Supply agreement, therefore encouraging the ERG to pull the trigger on a leadership challenge. But I can't see them risking an actual election.
So far today we've had
DUP not voting with government against Labour amendment. DUP threatening to vote against the budget DUP Brexit spokesman with an eviscerating article in the Telegraph about May.
It's not a large jump to see them withdrawing confidence, if the reports on the deal are right. Labour puts down a confidence motion Government loses it.
What happens next
If the DUP were simply to withdraw support for the government, the government would likely win a vote of confidence. They would need to actively vote against the government, which might not be to their advantage.
"One DUP source told Newsnight: "If we are not happy with what happens next week [in Brussels] we won't be bounced into anything. If she doesn't take our concerns on board, we will take the view that Theresa May is not the leader to take us through to a safe Brexit." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45806063
Blooming 'eck. I wonder if the Launch Escape System was used?
Yes, worked as intended. Crew all safe. With that suspect hole appearing out of nowhere in the Soyuz capsule currently up there, time to speed up commercial crew (SpaceX is ready, NASA is months behind on paperwork !). No doubt it'll be an excuse for yet more delay and cold feet though.. Edit - Did you see the report on the Senate Launch System yesterday ?
Some seem to think the LES was jettisoned before the incident, in which case the capsule might have been jettisoned, either deliberately or as part of the break-up.
This cannot fail to have major effects on the space program. For one thing, the three astronauts currently in the ISS will have to stay there for many more months, as the only Soyuz capsule they have to get back in has a hole in it and is, AIUI, unusable for crew. They've been up there for four months already. Provisions won't be an issue as there are plenty of supply craft available, but I doubt a manned Soyuz will fly for many, many months.
I'd love to think this means SpaceX or Boeing get to launch earlier. Of the two, I'd say SpaceX is in the better position for a rescue mission, as Boeing currently has issues with landing systems, and SpaceX's concerns are over launch. SpaceX could launch a capsule unmanned during the 'risky' part of their flight. But that's just a WAG.
Yes, I saw the SLS report. Not unexpected: the SLS is only partially a rocket project...
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
You are talking of a vnoc in the government
How is this to come about
It would be proposed by one of the opposition parties in the house if the DUP withdrew their support.
If the LDs thought Mrs May would deliver a soft Brexit, how many of them would turn up to the vote? And would the SNP MP in - say - North East Fife particularly want an election where he's defending his majority of two... Much better to fail to be there.
I'm not saying it won't happen (it might), but I think it's by no means certain that the Conservative Party would lose the Confidence Vote.
I agree. I think it would be very, very close.
Though, of course, if there are Tory plotters behind it then there is every chance a handful of Tories will have urgent dental operations...
With the clock ticking, it's a bit too much like Russian roulette.
And I can't see them actually tabling a Confidence Motion. They might walk away from the Confidence & Supply agreement, therefore encouraging the ERG to pull the trigger on a leadership challenge. But I can't see them risking an actual election.
So far today we've had
DUP not voting with government against Labour amendment. DUP threatening to vote against the budget DUP Brexit spokesman with an eviscerating article in the Telegraph about May.
It's not a large jump to see them withdrawing confidence, if the reports on the deal are right. Labour puts down a confidence motion Government loses it.
What happens next
If the DUP were simply to withdraw support for the government, the government would likely win a vote of confidence. They would need to actively vote against the government, which might not be to their advantage.
Can the Gov't get the budget through with a DUP abstention ?
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
You are talking of a vnoc in the government
How is this to come about
It would be proposed by one of the opposition parties in the house if the DUP withdrew their support.
nk it's by no means certain that the Conservative Party would lose the Confidence Vote.
I agree. I think it would be very, very close.
Though, of course, if there are Tory plotters behind it then there is every chance a handful of Tories will have urgent dental operations...
With the clock ticking, it's a bit too much like Russian roulette.
And I can't see them actually tabling a Confidence Motion. They might walk away from the Confidence & Supply agreement, therefore encouraging the ERG to pull the trigger on a leadership challenge. But I can't see them risking an actual election.
So far today we've had
DUP not voting with government against Labour amendment. DUP threatening to vote against the budget DUP Brexit spokesman with an eviscerating article in the Telegraph about May.
It's not a large jump to see them withdrawing confidence, if the reports on the deal are right. Labour puts down a confidence motion Government loses it.
What happens next
If the DUP were simply to withdraw support for the government, the government would likely win a vote of confidence. They would need to actively vote against the government, which might not be to their advantage.
Can the Gov't get the budget through with a DUP abstention ?
Yes. The maximum vote against the government (without the DUP voting against) is 315. The government has 316, plus Charles Elphicke.
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
You are talking of a vnoc in the government
How is this to come about
It would be proposed by one of the opposition parties in the house if the DUP withdrew their support.
Though, of course, if there are Tory plotters behind it then there is every chance a handful of Tories will have urgent dental operations...
With the clock ticking, it's a bit too much like Russian roulette.
And I can't see them actually tabling a Confidence Motion. They might walk away from the Confidence & Supply agreement, therefore encouraging the ERG to pull the trigger on a leadership challenge. But I can't see them risking an actual election.
So far today we've had
DUP not voting with government against Labour amendment. DUP threatening to vote against the budget DUP Brexit spokesman with an eviscerating article in the Telegraph about May.
It's not a large jump to see them withdrawing confidence, if the reports on the deal are right. Labour puts down a confidence motion Government loses it.
What happens next
If the DUP were simply to withdraw support for the government, the government would likely win a vote of confidence. They would need to actively vote against the government, which might not be to their advantage.
Can the Gov't get the budget through with a DUP abstention ?
20 billion going to NHS so lots going to Northern Ireland
Are they really going to sabotage investment in their NHS
So the people who think that a short cut to a fresh non-statutory referendum would be a democratic outrage are contemplating changing the Conservative party leadership election rules to allow for a candidate of their choice to be installed in two weeks? You have to admire the intellectual flexibility.
As a sidenote, if the Conservative leadership contest was compressed, outsiders would be seriously disadvantaged and a candidate might win based on a passing spasm of opinion. The first is probably a good thing, the second is probably not.
Yes. The maximum vote against the government (without the DUP voting against) is 315. The government has 316, plus Charles Elphicke.
Unlike almost any other vote* (Except the Queen's speech) you can take it as read that there'll be precisely zero conservative abstentions or votes against too. * Or well it feels like it with the Mogglodytes and Soubryites re: Brexit..
So the people who think that a short cut to a fresh non-statutory referendum would be a democratic outrage are contemplating changing the Conservative party leadership election rules to allow for a candidate of their choice to be installed in two weeks? You have to admire the intellectual flexibility.
As a sidenote, if the Conservative leadership contest was compressed, outsiders would be seriously disadvantaged and a candidate might win based on a passing spasm of opinion. The first is probably a good thing, the second is probably not.
Depends how many candidates there were.
Could easily be 1 or 0...
It's more likely to start at 20 than 0 in my view. The self-delusion among Conservative MPs about their suitability seems remarkable.
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
You are talking of a vnoc in the government
How is this to come about
It would be proposed by one of the opposition parties in the house if the DUP withdrew their support.
If the LDs thought Mrs May would de Confidence Vote.
I agree. I think it would be very, very close.
Though, of course, if there are Tory plotters behind it then there is every chance a handful of Tories will have urgent dental operations...
With the clock ticking, it's a bit too much like Russian roulette.
And I can't see themn actual election.
So far today we've had
DUP not voting with government against Labour amendment. DUP threatening to vote against the budget DUP Brexit spokesman with an eviscerating article in the Telegraph about May.
It's not a large jump to see them withdrawing confidence, if the reports on the deal are right. Labour puts down a confidence motion Government loses it.
What happens next
If the DUP were simply to withdraw support for the government, the government would likely win a vote of confidence. They would need to actively vote against the government, which might not be to their advantage.
you have to admire the DUPs chutzpah. They have as many weaknesses as May yet run around as if they have four aces and a joker.
if they are stupid HMG can crap on them as if there is no tomorrow
no £1bn bung no MLA salaries gay marriage abortion reform
plus anything else they can think up - or indeed Corbyn and McDonnell
Yes. The maximum vote against the government (without the DUP voting against) is 315. The government has 316, plus Charles Elphicke.
Unlike almost any other vote* (Except the Queen's speech) you can take it as read that there'll be precisely zero conservative abstentions or votes against too. * Or well it feels like it with the Mogglodytes and Soubryites re: Brexit..
There might be difficulties over pairing. Its not a given by any means
Yes. The maximum vote against the government (without the DUP voting against) is 315. The government has 316, plus Charles Elphicke.
Unlike almost any other vote* (Except the Queen's speech) you can take it as read that there'll be precisely zero conservative abstentions or votes against too. * Or well it feels like it with the Mogglodytes and Soubryites re: Brexit..
Labour also has 5 ex-MP's, who can't necessarily be relied on to vote against the budget.
So the people who think that a short cut to a fresh non-statutory referendum would be a democratic outrage are contemplating changing the Conservative party leadership election rules to allow for a candidate of their choice to be installed in two weeks? You have to admire the intellectual flexibility.
As a sidenote, if the Conservative leadership contest was compressed, outsiders would be seriously disadvantaged and a candidate might win based on a passing spasm of opinion. The first is probably a good thing, the second is probably not.
You mean they will elect that serial spasamer Vince Cable by mistake?
Mr. P, we already know Osborne's fear-mongering was overblown. There was no Punishment Budget, after all.
If he'd been more credible, then his words, and those of others (that were perhaps more realistic) would've been taken more seriously and had more impact.
I believe we were headed for Brexit whatever Remainers said. There were enough people who bought into the idea that leaving the EU would solve all their problems, it's human nature to want to believe there are simple solutions. We will leave the EU and the problems will all still be there, what happens next is anybody's guess. My guess is that a lot will vote for Corbyn because he is offering equally undeliverable and simplistic solutions to their problems.
Very good post.
The Leave vote was caused by people not taking responsibility for their (perceived or otherwise) lack of success. It's always easier to blame the EU, immigrants, 'darkies' et el for your poor lot in life rather than do the difficult self-reflection.
Things just aligned perfectly for Leave - this feeling ignited by the booster fuel of xenophobia was always going to be hard to counter.
that is one of the hard parts Mrs B was left during the week with 3 kids. I was about your age when I was doing it so unfortunately you do miss key dates in their lives.
On the other hand if your employer is half decent you can negotiate several flights a year where they come to see you. One of the advantages is if you have a car you can go skiing in Bavaria or Austria really easily and take the family with you.
We also had lots of holidays in Germany on the cheap.
I’m a single parent so it’ll be down to my parents even more now.
I’m such a lousy father that a few years ago when I went to pick my youngest from nursery his teacher refused to hand him over as she didn’t know who I was/wasn’t his regular picker upper.
I’ve got 8 weeks holiday plus stats and a flights paid for every week.
That number of days in the UK means that you'll pay German income tax and then UK tax on the same (with a credit for German tax paid). Enjoy.
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
You are talking of a vnoc in the government
How is this to come about
It would be proposed by one of the opposition parties in the house if the DUP withdrew their support.
If the LDs thought Mrs May would de Confidence Vote.
I agree. I think it would be very, very close.
Though, of course, if there are Tory plotters behind it then there is every chance a handful of Tories will have urgent dental operations...
With the clock ticking, it's a bit too much like Russian roulette.
And I can't see themn actual election.
So far today we've had
DUP not voting with government against Labour amendment. DUP threatening to vote against the budget DUP Brexit spokesman with an eviscerating article in the Telegraph about May.
It's not a large jump to see them withdrawing confidence, if the reports on the deal are right. Labour puts down a confidence motion Government loses it.
What happens next
If the DUP were simply to withdraw support for the government, the government would likely win a vote of confidence. They would need to actively vote against the government, which might not be to their advantage.
you have to admire the DUPs chutzpah. They have as many weaknesses as May yet run around as if they have four aces and a joker.
if they are stupid HMG can crap on them as if there is no tomorrow
no £1bn bung no MLA salaries gay marriage abortion reform
plus anything else they can think up - or indeed Corbyn and McDonnell
They all* look likely to retain their seats at a subsequent election to me. *Except Pengelly and Dodds maybe The Tories will lose, and badly I think if there is a new year election !
What possible succour are Brexiteers taking from the shitshow they unleashed?
BoZo's ambitionunhappy now..."
Get a grip.
Cameron out, Osborne out, Boris out
whats not to like ?
You forgot the biggest upside.
The seeds have been planted for Northern Ireland’s departure from the UK.
Imagine really clever Oxbridge guys outnegotiated by a bunch of rednecks and hill farmers
they have you by the balls and are listening to your chorus of wailing impotence
We’re playing the long game.
A bad Brexit sees us rejoin replete with the Euro and Schengen.
The reactions of Leavers will be great. They’ll be like the Japanese on Okinawa in 1945 as the Americans inch closer.
Short term pain for long term gain.
I know someone who was fairly high up in Vote Leave reckons we’ll have rejoined by 2030 in the event of a sustained No Deal.
The other aspect he’d not factored in was that a Leave has awoken a large Pro-EU movement in the country.
well I have no reason to doubt any of that, there is no settled opinion in the UK atm so the doors are open to all and sundry.
However having seen the lamentable performance of the UK political class, until we actually get vaguely competent politicans wed be mad to try and go back in.
I wouldn't worry about it we'll be bankrupt by then anyway. I notice the stock market has dived in anticipation
Roger the stock market has collapsed since you put all the fat people off going to Patisserie Valerie. Here in the Midlands everyone is trying to shred blubber so they can see you in Nice next year.
Though Patisserie Valerie has been my cafe of choice for years I didn't realise till yesterday that they were a quoted company. If I had I would have warned investors that from having the best croissants in the world they now had the worst.
Last time I was there I complained to the long serving Spanish waitress and she whispered in my ear 'everything here has changed. They now use a central warehouse and it takes days for them to arrive. Speak to the manager' The fact that it had gone from the busyest cafe on Old Compton St to the Marie Celeste should have given people a clue.
Mr. P, we already know Osborne's fear-mongering was overblown. There was no Punishment Budget, after all.
If he'd been more credible, then his words, and those of others (that were perhaps more realistic) would've been taken more seriously and had more impact.
I believe we were headed for Brexit whatever Remainers said. There were enough people who bought into the idea that leaving the EU would solve all their problems, it's human nature to want to believe there are simple solutions. We will leave the EU and the problems will all still be there, what happens next is anybody's guess. My guess is that a lot will vote for Corbyn because he is offering equally undeliverable and simplistic solutions to their problems.
Very good post.
The Leave vote was caused by people not taking responsibility for their (perceived or otherwise) lack of success. It's always easier to blame the EU, immigrants, 'darkies' et el for your poor lot in life rather than do the difficult self-reflection.
Things just aligned perfectly for Leave - this feeling ignited by the booster fuel of xenophobia was always going to be hard to counter.
The massive irony being we will get more immigrant 'darkies' (as you put it) as the flow of cheap and necessary labour from the EU dries up and the UK must turn elsewhere.
I remain of the opinion that, had the Syrian refugee crisis not being unfolding at the time of the vote, we would have had a handy majority for Remain. That was the true booster fuel.
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers. However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
You are talking of a vnoc in the government
How is this to come about
It would be proposed by one of the opposition parties in the house if the DUP withdrew their support.
If the LDs thought Mrs May would de Confidence Vote.
I agree. I think it would be very, very close.
Though, of course, if there are Tory plotters behind it then there is every chance a handful of Tories will have urgent dental operations...
With the clock ticking, it's a bit too much like Russian roulette.
And I can't see themn actual election.
So far today wt loses it.
What happens next
If the DUP were simply to withdraw support for the government, the government would likely win a vote of confidence. They would need to actively vote against the government, which might not be to their advantage.
you have to admire the DUPs chutzpah. They have as many weaknesses as May yet run around as if they have four aces and a joker.
if they are stupid HMG can crap on them as if there is no tomorrow
no £1bn bung no MLA salaries gay marriage abortion reform
plus anything else they can think up - or indeed Corbyn and McDonnell
They all* look likely to retain their seats at a subsequent election to me. *Except Pengelly and Dodds maybe The Tories will lose, and badly I think if there is a new year election !
the seats arent the problem its sending a herd of their sacred cows to the abbatoir that will hurt.
personally I'd reduce their MLA income to diddly squat. The DUP always sit up where money is involved. 28 moaning jobsworths would give Arlene her own headache
What possible succour are Brexiteers taking from the shitshow they unleashed?
BoZo's ambitionunhappy now..."
Get a grip.
Cameron out, Osborne out, Boris out
whats not to like ?
You forgot the biggest upside.
The seeds have been planted for Northern Ireland’s departure from the UK.
Imagine really clever Oxbridge guys outnegotiated by a bunch of rednecks and hill farmers
they have you by the balls and are listening to your chorus of wailing impotence
We’re playing the long game.
A bad Brexit sees us rejoin replete with the Euro and Schengen.
The reactions of Leavers will be great. They’ll be like the Japanese on Okinawa in 1945 as the Americans inch closer.
Short term pain for long term gain.
I know someone who was fairly high up in Vote Leave reckons we’ll have rejoined by 2030 in the event of a sustained No Deal.
The other aspect he’d not factored in was that a Leave has awoken a large Pro-EU movement in the country.
well I have no reason to doubt any of that, there is no settled opinion in the UK atm so the doors are open to all and sundry.
However having seen the lamentable performance of the UK political class, until we actually get vaguely competent politicans wed be mad to try and go back in.
I wouldn't worry about it we'll be bankrupt by then anyway. I notice the stock market has dived in anticipation
Roger the stock market has collapsed since you put all the fat people off going to Patisserie Valerie. Here in the Midlands everyone is trying to shred blubber so they can see you in Nice next year.
Though Patisserie Valerie has been my cafe of choice for years I didn't realise till yesterday that they were a quoted company. If I had I would have warned investors that from having the best croissants in the world they now had the worst.
Last time I was there I complained to the long serving Spanish waitress and she whispered in my ear 'everything here has changed. They now use a central warehouse and it takes days for them to arrive. Speak to the manager' The fact that it had gone from the busyest cafe on Old Compton St to the Marie Celeste should have given people a clue.
I see 53,000 predominatly African-American voter registrations in Georgia are being blocked due to a voter supression measure designed to block voter registration.
I'm sure Charles will along to tell us how that's totally fine as there was a debate or some such.
I don’t know the details of this case. The fact that you consistently describe them as “voter suppression” leads me to conclude you don’t have an open mind
My view is simple: preserving the integrity of the ballot is more important than efforts to register new voters. Asking for proof of ID is not unreasonable. If a certain group in society don’t have ID find out why and fix that - don’t deal with the symptoms
As for your snide comment about the debate you said the supporters of the law in ND needed to make a case - I just pointed out that since it was a law they had probably debated it before passing
I suspect that the description as ‘voter suppression’ is based on the long and continuing recoded of the Republican Party in this respect. There are many stories like this (and a litany of court cases, which is one of the reasons to oppose partisan operators like Kavanaugh). Oh, here’s another one.... https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/campaign-worker-arrested-after-iding-his-candidate-as-democrat
That seems like a stupid policeman and (quite possibly) an arse-y campaign management.
Either way he shouldn't have been arrested, and it's daft to charge him (and I would hope the jury would throw it out as word against word).
But it's unreasonable to blame the Republicans for it and it's not voter suppression.
Last time I was there I complained to the long serving Spanish waitress and she whispered in my ear 'everything here has changed. They now use a central warehouse and it takes days for them to arrive. Speak to the manager' The fact that it had gone from the busyest cafe on Old Compton St to the Marie Celeste should have given people a clue.
Thinking of croissants and France, and perhaps this is atypical of where I visited or live; but the amount of small bars, restaurants, shops, bakers in Domfront (Pop ~ 4000 I think) seemed way way higher than a small english town or large village of comparable size. Any thoughts on this ?
that is one of the hard parts Mrs B was left during the week with 3 kids. I was about your age when I was doing it so unfortunately you do miss key dates in their lives.
On the other hand if your employer is half decent you can negotiate several flights a year where they come to see you. One of the advantages is if you have a car you can go skiing in Bavaria or Austria really easily and take the family with you.
We also had lots of holidays in Germany on the cheap.
I’m a single parent so it’ll be down to my parents even more now.
I’m such a lousy father that a few years ago when I went to pick my youngest from nursery his teacher refused to hand him over as she didn’t know who I was/wasn’t his regular picker upper.
I’ve got 8 weeks holiday plus stats and a flights paid for every week.
Please don't beat yourself up. We have to work to be able to pay for all the things that our children want and need in life - including the nursery. I've been queried at my kids one repeatedly, as they change staff or tighten up procedures. Usually "Daddy!!!" from the child does the job.
My own eldest son - who has never lived with me in his 17 years - much prefers living with his Nan than he does with his mum. Its fairly common for kids to live with grandparents whilst parents are away/work unusual hours. Such is life - either the money on offer is enough or find another way to earn money. There are always options and how often in life does the "I don't like this" option turn out to be great?
So the people who think that a short cut to a fresh non-statutory referendum would be a democratic outrage are contemplating changing the Conservative party leadership election rules to allow for a candidate of their choice to be installed in two weeks? You have to admire the intellectual flexibility.
As a sidenote, if the Conservative leadership contest was compressed, outsiders would be seriously disadvantaged and a candidate might win based on a passing spasm of opinion. The first is probably a good thing, the second is probably not.
Depends how many candidates there were.
Could easily be 1 or 0...
It's more likely to start at 20 than 0 in my view. The self-delusion among Conservative MPs about their suitability seems remarkable.
George Freeman? Was that the guy? The patron saint of nonentities.
"Prime Minister’s Questions left me hoping the Conservatives lose the next election – lose it so badly their buttocks sting – and that Jeremy Corbyn, with whom I disagree on almost everything, becomes Prime Minister."
Comments
We do all sorts, investments and closers for M&As mostly. We are described as a concierge service.
I’ll be working 4 days a week in Germany and then commuting back for the weekends.
The reason I’m moving is for a multitude of reasons, I can speak fluent German, and the German regulatory environment is complex/different. We don’t want to break the law, at the start by accident, so it was determined we needed a legal and regulatory presence there from the beginning.
What might be legal in the UK can be illegal in German.
This will be reviewed after a while.
I know quite a lot of employees won’t do well in prison.
There are many stories like this (and a litany of court cases, which is one of the reasons to oppose partisan operators like Kavanaugh).
Oh, here’s another one....
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/campaign-worker-arrested-after-iding-his-candidate-as-democrat
What do we have here, suggestion that the conservative leader vote could be completed within the 14 days the FTPA specifies to prevent an election.
https://twitter.com/MPritchardUK/status/1050306649246879744?s=19
I did the Monday to Friday commute to Germany for 5 years.
My advice would be make sure you get a flat, living in a hotel is soul destroying it also means you can clear airports faster as your clothes just sit in one place.
Also dont spend all your time working to fill in the evenings get out and do stuff as during winter it turns a bit grim.
vary your routine and find reasons to skip a week and stay at home otherwise youll lose contact with lots of people.
Her other issue was the naivety with which Fox operated wrt the WTO, he just assumed that we would maintain all of our existing quotas etc... and that the major players would simply support our membership without asking any questions. That was never going to be the case and belatedly the government has been working on getting the US and other Anglo nations on side to make the process work for us but it should have been done from day one.
Will my kids even recognise me?
An American and Russian astronaut are making an emergency landing after a booster rocket failed when taking them to the international space station. Both are safe
On the other hand if your employer is half decent you can negotiate several flights a year where they come to see you. One of the advantages is if you have a car you can go skiing in Bavaria or Austria really easily and take the family with you.
We also had lots of holidays in Germany on the cheap.
Will you become a German taxpayer/resident?
If it's too personal a question, no need to answer. Just interested.
Anyway I hope it all goes well for you.
The mps would need to find two unity candidates
One thing about PB is that many of us are in the same boat of have been in the past.
https://telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/9237024/Dedicated-police-constable-to-commute-from-Germany.html
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45822845
Blooming 'eck. I wonder if the Launch Escape System was used?
As a sidenote, if the Conservative leadership contest was compressed, outsiders would be seriously disadvantaged and a candidate might win based on a passing spasm of opinion. The first is probably a good thing, the second is probably not.
rumbled ! :-)
Listening to leavers on the media they all seem to have this remarkably stupid idea that we should accept a Canada ++ deal but when asked about just in time manufacturing or an Irish border parrot there are solutions but someone else has to find them. I put David Davis and Boris + ERG in that category but most brexiteers seem to have the same blindside
As far as the DUP are concerned I am sure TM will do her best to mitigate their concerns but I believe 'this bloody difficult women' will next week or in November arrive at a deal and put it to parliament, irrespective of the danger to her, as she will see it in the national interest and not a minority view, even in her own party.
She could if necessary call a vnoc in herself which would almost certainly see her win well and then she is in place for the next twelve months.
Lots of high stakes going on but do not underestimate TM for standing firm
I’m such a lousy father that a few years ago when I went to pick my youngest from nursery his teacher refused to hand him over as she didn’t know who I was/wasn’t his regular picker upper.
I’ve got 8 weeks holiday plus stats and a flights paid for every week.
No doubt it'll be an excuse for yet more delay and cold feet though..
Edit - Did you see the report on the Senate Launch System yesterday ?
Yes as part of the Brexit dividend most of my taxes will now be going to the German government instead of the Treasury.
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/969143798373732352?s=20
I simply say that because with the other entities I know it is business/risk people who have moved rather than legal services and where these have been needed they are being provided locally for obvious reasons.
Each entity is different etc.
We'll have to hope the planes keep flying.....
Best of luck!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45806063
This cannot fail to have major effects on the space program. For one thing, the three astronauts currently in the ISS will have to stay there for many more months, as the only Soyuz capsule they have to get back in has a hole in it and is, AIUI, unusable for crew. They've been up there for four months already. Provisions won't be an issue as there are plenty of supply craft available, but I doubt a manned Soyuz will fly for many, many months.
I'd love to think this means SpaceX or Boeing get to launch earlier. Of the two, I'd say SpaceX is in the better position for a rescue mission, as Boeing currently has issues with landing systems, and SpaceX's concerns are over launch. SpaceX could launch a capsule unmanned during the 'risky' part of their flight. But that's just a WAG.
Yes, I saw the SLS report. Not unexpected: the SLS is only partially a rocket project...
Are they really going to sabotage investment in their NHS
Brave to be sure
Could easily be 1 or 0...
* Or well it feels like it with the Mogglodytes and Soubryites re: Brexit..
if they are stupid HMG can crap on them as if there is no tomorrow
no £1bn bung
no MLA salaries
gay marriage
abortion reform
plus anything else they can think up - or indeed Corbyn and McDonnell
The Leave vote was caused by people not taking responsibility for their (perceived or otherwise) lack of success. It's always easier to blame the EU, immigrants, 'darkies' et el for your poor lot in life rather than do the difficult self-reflection.
Things just aligned perfectly for Leave - this feeling ignited by the booster fuel of xenophobia was always going to be hard to counter.
*Except Pengelly and Dodds maybe
The Tories will lose, and badly I think if there is a new year election !
Last time I was there I complained to the long serving Spanish waitress and she whispered in my ear 'everything here has changed. They now use a central warehouse and it takes days for them to arrive. Speak to the manager' The fact that it had gone from the busyest cafe on Old Compton St to the Marie Celeste should have given people a clue.
I remain of the opinion that, had the Syrian refugee crisis not being unfolding at the time of the vote, we would have had a handy majority for Remain. That was the true booster fuel.
personally I'd reduce their MLA income to diddly squat. The DUP always sit up where money is involved. 28 moaning jobsworths would give Arlene her own headache
I always had you down as a Greggs man
Either way he shouldn't have been arrested, and it's daft to charge him (and I would hope the jury would throw it out as word against word).
But it's unreasonable to blame the Republicans for it and it's not voter suppression.
Any thoughts on this ?
My own eldest son - who has never lived with me in his 17 years - much prefers living with his Nan than he does with his mum. Its fairly common for kids to live with grandparents whilst parents are away/work unusual hours. Such is life - either the money on offer is enough or find another way to earn money. There are always options and how often in life does the "I don't like this" option turn out to be great?