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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The real weakness of the threats of PM Corbyn is that many LAB

SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited October 11 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The real weakness of the threats of PM Corbyn is that many LAB MPs don’t like the idea either

Well, it would certainly encourage a lot of Labour MPs to support her

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 7,647
    edited October 11
    Is first even possible ?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,877
    No
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 7,647
    That’s what I thought.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,846

    I could see some Labour MP's and ex-Labour MP's deciding they had urgent business they had to attend to.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 617
    Sean_F said:


    I could see some Labour MP's and ex-Labour MP's deciding they had urgent business they had to attend to.

    Like preparing for their upcoming recall/deselection meeting?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,877
    So far, the ERG seem to have exhibited little spine. I think Mrs May would have little risk in facing them down. They appear to be nothing but ill-informed, bluster merchants. Why the Tory party lets them hold it ransom is beyond me.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,877
    Nigelb said:

    That’s what I thought.

    :D
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,846

    So far, the ERG seem to have exhibited little spine. I think Mrs May would have little risk in facing them down. They appear to be nothing but ill-informed, bluster merchants. Why the Tory party lets them hold it ransom is beyond me.

    I think that May can call their bluff.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,371
    Labour MPs won't vote that they have confidence in Theresa May or even abstain. It would, rightly, mark the end of their career in Parliament under the Labour banner. Might they jump ship beforehand? Perhaps.

    More likely, they would vote that they had no confidence in Theresa May and then work behind the scenes to put together another government under another leader (other than Jeremy Corbyn) with a more stable majority, if they could.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,846

    FPT @ Pulpstar Nigel Dodds and Emma Pengelly would probably hold their seats, but it would be tight, and their chances would be considerably enhanced if the new boundaries had gone through.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,679
    Sean_F said:

    So far, the ERG seem to have exhibited little spine. I think Mrs May would have little risk in facing them down. They appear to be nothing but ill-informed, bluster merchants. Why the Tory party lets them hold it ransom is beyond me.

    I think that May can call their bluff.
    It strikes me that the ERG gang have cried wolf far too often. Failing to follow through on threats undermines your credibility.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,846

    Sean_F said:

    So far, the ERG seem to have exhibited little spine. I think Mrs May would have little risk in facing them down. They appear to be nothing but ill-informed, bluster merchants. Why the Tory party lets them hold it ransom is beyond me.

    I think that May can call their bluff.
    It strikes me that the ERG gang have cried wolf far too often. Failing to follow through on threats undermines your credibility.
    As Tuco Ramirez put it "When you have to shoot, shoot, don't talk."
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,077
    edited October 11
    Ongoing Labour factional fighting. Involves antisemitism, obviously, with Momentum trying to stop a 'problematic' JVL individual getting on the disciplinary planel: https://www.theredroar.com/2018/10/far-left-split-over-jvl-candidate-for-labours-disciplinary-committee/

    Momentum is on other side is this piece of news, being accused of systematically uninviting Jews from a meeting hosted by McDonnell which is seen as a precursor to installing a 'problematic' JVL bod as Labour candidate in one of the most Jewish constituencies in the UK.

    What a shower.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,077

    Sean_F said:

    So far, the ERG seem to have exhibited little spine. I think Mrs May would have little risk in facing them down. They appear to be nothing but ill-informed, bluster merchants. Why the Tory party lets them hold it ransom is beyond me.

    I think that May can call their bluff.
    It strikes me that the ERG gang have cried wolf far too often. Failing to follow through on threats undermines your credibility.
    Sagacious.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,877

    Sean_F said:

    So far, the ERG seem to have exhibited little spine. I think Mrs May would have little risk in facing them down. They appear to be nothing but ill-informed, bluster merchants. Why the Tory party lets them hold it ransom is beyond me.

    I think that May can call their bluff.
    It strikes me that the ERG gang have cried wolf far too often. Failing to follow through on threats undermines your credibility.
    Having said that, the ERG have done remarkably well considering their complete lack of ability. Bluster and threats have allowed them to paralyse an entire government.

    The DUP, on the other hand, have the certainty of the fanatic.They will carry out their threats.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,167

    Sean_F said:

    So far, the ERG seem to have exhibited little spine. I think Mrs May would have little risk in facing them down. They appear to be nothing but ill-informed, bluster merchants. Why the Tory party lets them hold it ransom is beyond me.

    I think that May can call their bluff.
    It strikes me that the ERG gang have cried wolf far too often. Failing to follow through on threats undermines your credibility.
    Having said that, the ERG have done remarkably well considering their complete lack of ability. Bluster and threats have allowed them to paralyse an entire government.

    The DUP, on the other hand, have the certainty of the fanatic.They will carry out their threats.
    ERG and DUP - birds of the same feather - crazed lunatics!
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,167
    O/T Amber weather warning : South Wales

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 11,066
    Anorak said:

    Ongoing Labour factional fighting. Involves antisemitism, obviously, with Momentum trying to stop a 'problematic' JVL individual getting on the disciplinary planel: https://www.theredroar.com/2018/10/far-left-split-over-jvl-candidate-for-labours-disciplinary-committee/

    Momentum is on other side is this piece of news, being accused of systematically uninviting Jews from a meeting hosted by McDonnell which is seen as a precursor to installing a 'problematic' JVL bod as Labour candidate in one of the most Jewish constituencies in the UK.


    What a shower.

    From a "But-for-Corbyn" Labour supporter - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/corbyn-s-character-makes-him-unfit-to-lead-djfbt2jhv
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,127
    FPT:
    Roger said:


    Last time I was there I complained to the long serving Spanish waitress and she whispered in my ear 'everything here has changed. They now use a central warehouse and it takes days for them to arrive. Speak to the manager' The fact that it had gone from the busyest cafe on Old Compton St to the Marie Celeste should have given people a clue.

    Thinking of croissants and France, and perhaps this is atypical of where I visited or live; but the amount of small bars, restaurants, shops, bakers in Domfront (Pop ~ 4000 I think) seemed way way higher than a small english town or large village of comparable size.
    Any thoughts on this ?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,077
    Cyclefree said:
    Any moderate would have 10-point leads by now. Easily.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,102
    Around 30 Labour MPs are set to back May's deal according to reports this morning.

    If we end up with No Deal in November I think a second EU referendum is more likely than not before the Brexit date of the end of March 2019 and Remain would likely win it
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,489
    FPT: re. children and nurseries.

    Last year, I was near the end of a half-marathon run around my village when I passed the playground opposite my son's nursery. He was in the playground with some other children from the nursery and a few staff members.

    He saw me and waved, so I went in through the gate, ran over to him, gave him a hug and kiss, and then ran off.

    As I ran away, I saw two staff members I didn't know staring at me.

    That evening, they laughed as they told me that they just saw a sweaty, messy man run up to one of their kids, kiss and handle him, and then run off. Fortunately there was a third staff member nearby who could tell them that I was actually his father.

    It was a stupid thing for me to do, but I was rather tired at the time ...
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 5,646
    murali_s said:

    O/T Amber weather warning : South Wales

    Amber Rudd visiting Wales?
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 5,646
    murali_s said:

    Sean_F said:

    So far, the ERG seem to have exhibited little spine. I think Mrs May would have little risk in facing them down. They appear to be nothing but ill-informed, bluster merchants. Why the Tory party lets them hold it ransom is beyond me.

    I think that May can call their bluff.
    It strikes me that the ERG gang have cried wolf far too often. Failing to follow through on threats undermines your credibility.
    Having said that, the ERG have done remarkably well considering their complete lack of ability. Bluster and threats have allowed them to paralyse an entire government.

    The DUP, on the other hand, have the certainty of the fanatic.They will carry out their threats.
    ERG and DUP - birds of the same feather - crazed lunatics!
    It is not politically correct or logical to call people lunatics because they hold different political views to you.
  • notmenotme Posts: 2,850

    murali_s said:

    Sean_F said:

    So far, the ERG seem to have exhibited little spine. I think Mrs May would have little risk in facing them down. They appear to be nothing but ill-informed, bluster merchants. Why the Tory party lets them hold it ransom is beyond me.

    I think that May can call their bluff.
    It strikes me that the ERG gang have cried wolf far too often. Failing to follow through on threats undermines your credibility.
    Having said that, the ERG have done remarkably well considering their complete lack of ability. Bluster and threats have allowed them to paralyse an entire government.

    The DUP, on the other hand, have the certainty of the fanatic.They will carry out their threats.
    ERG and DUP - birds of the same feather - crazed lunatics!
    It is not politically correct or logical to call people lunatics because they hold different political views to you.
    Headbangers?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,077
    edited October 11

    murali_s said:

    Sean_F said:

    So far, the ERG seem to have exhibited little spine. I think Mrs May would have little risk in facing them down. They appear to be nothing but ill-informed, bluster merchants. Why the Tory party lets them hold it ransom is beyond me.

    I think that May can call their bluff.
    It strikes me that the ERG gang have cried wolf far too often. Failing to follow through on threats undermines your credibility.
    Having said that, the ERG have done remarkably well considering their complete lack of ability. Bluster and threats have allowed them to paralyse an entire government.

    The DUP, on the other hand, have the certainty of the fanatic.They will carry out their threats.
    ERG and DUP - birds of the same feather - crazed lunatics!
    It is not politically correct or logical to call people lunatics because they hold different political views to you.
    True. But in this case he* is absolutely correct.

    * I assume.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,225
    edited October 11
    Pulpstar said:

    FPT:

    Roger said:


    Last time I was there I complained to the long serving Spanish waitress and she whispered in my ear 'everything here has changed. They now use a central warehouse and it takes days for them to arrive. Speak to the manager' The fact that it had gone from the busyest cafe on Old Compton St to the Marie Celeste should have given people a clue.

    Thinking of croissants and France, and perhaps this is atypical of where I visited or live; but the amount of small bars, restaurants, shops, bakers in Domfront (Pop ~ 4000 I think) seemed way way higher than a small english town or large village of comparable size.
    Any thoughts on this ?
    I live somewhere a little bigger. We don’t have a baker as such, although the Co-op..... a medium sized store ... claims to ‘bake’ on the premises. We have ‘a’ butcher/deli and a pharmacy. Otherwise we have four or five ladies hairdressers, two mens' and a unisex.We’re much better off for restaurants pubs though. Three ‘good’ ones.... two very good...... and three pubs, all of which serve food.
    We also have one/two empty shops (plus living accommodation) which the landlord is trying to either let as one at £20,000 pa or sell as two residential units.
    The usual reason for the closure of cafe’s etc is the level of rates. Plus, of course the inflated and unreasonable demands of one in particular landlord.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,877

    murali_s said:

    O/T Amber weather warning : South Wales

    Amber Rudd visiting Wales?
    Is she a rain goddess á la Douglas Adams?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 6,353
    HYUFD said:

    Around 30 Labour MPs are set to back May's deal according to reports this morning.

    If we end up with No Deal in November I think a second EU referendum is more likely than not before the Brexit date of the end of March 2019 and Remain would likely win it

    Voting down the deal would put the country on very dangerous and uncertain ground now.

    anything could happen from No-Deal to No Brexit at all, and anyone which says they know what would happen is either an idiot or lying.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,092
    edited October 11
    HYUFD said:

    Around 30 Labour MPs are set to back May's deal according to reports this morning.

    If we end up with No Deal in November I think a second EU referendum is more likely than not before the Brexit date of the end of March 2019 and Remain would likely win it

    I doubt it. May would propose a Norway model via EFTA as the only plausible safe harbour. This I think would carry in parliament. The ERG would be apoplectic, but they would have been served their just desserts for wrecking any prospect of compromise.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 1,846
    Anorak said:

    Ongoing Labour factional fighting. Involves antisemitism, obviously, with Momentum trying to stop a 'problematic' JVL individual getting on the disciplinary planel: https://www.theredroar.com/2018/10/far-left-split-over-jvl-candidate-for-labours-disciplinary-committee/

    Momentum is on other side is this piece of news, being accused of systematically uninviting Jews from a meeting hosted by McDonnell which is seen as a precursor to installing a 'problematic' JVL bod as Labour candidate in one of the most Jewish constituencies in the UK.


    What a shower.

    https://scontent-lht6-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.15752-9/43629051_305073456985970_771461892563533824_n.jpg?_nc_cat=107&oh=f4296c584dc8eb2071718a8bb944940d&oe=5C53297D

    "John, it's Ken. Know who else banned Jews from public meetings...?"
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 30,975
    Looks like TSE has landed on his feet! What a thrilling video.....I'm packing my bags....

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,102

    HYUFD said:

    Around 30 Labour MPs are set to back May's deal according to reports this morning.

    If we end up with No Deal in November I think a second EU referendum is more likely than not before the Brexit date of the end of March 2019 and Remain would likely win it

    Voting down the deal would put the country on very dangerous and uncertain ground now.

    anything could happen from No-Deal to No Brexit at all, and anyone which says they know what would happen is either an idiot or lying.
    No Deal of course being the most obvious route to No Brexit at all
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 5,646

    murali_s said:

    O/T Amber weather warning : South Wales

    Amber Rudd visiting Wales?
    Is she a rain goddess á la Douglas Adams?

    As we leave the EU we could say "Thanks for all the fish".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,102
    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    Around 30 Labour MPs are set to back May's deal according to reports this morning.

    If we end up with No Deal in November I think a second EU referendum is more likely than not before the Brexit date of the end of March 2019 and Remain would likely win it

    I doubt it. May would propose a Norway model via EFTA as the only plausible safe harbour. This I think would carry in parliament. The ERG would be apoplectic, but they would have been served their just desserts for wrecking any prospect of compromise.
    EFTA is possible but it would need to be approved pretty quickly
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,077

    Looks like TSE has landed on his feet! What a thrilling video.....I'm packing my bags....

    Dunno. Frankfurt doesn't seem to be humming with ethnic diversity according to that.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 5,646

    Looks like TSE has landed on his feet! What a thrilling video.....I'm packing my bags....


    My only visit to Frankfurt was to tour a deep freezer factory.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 30,975

    Looks like TSE has landed on his feet! What a thrilling video.....I'm packing my bags....


    My only visit to Frankfurt was to tour a deep freezer factory.
    You've seen the highlights then......
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 1,846
    Anorak said:

    Looks like TSE has landed on his feet! What a thrilling video.....I'm packing my bags....

    Dunno. Frankfurt doesn't seem to be humming with ethnic diversity according to that.
    I went to Frankfurt once. Rabbits on a roundabout. Some church bell that had all sorts of overtones when rung. Err, most of it passed me by, tbh.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 6,353
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Around 30 Labour MPs are set to back May's deal according to reports this morning.

    If we end up with No Deal in November I think a second EU referendum is more likely than not before the Brexit date of the end of March 2019 and Remain would likely win it

    Voting down the deal would put the country on very dangerous and uncertain ground now.

    anything could happen from No-Deal to No Brexit at all, and anyone which says they know what would happen is either an idiot or lying.
    No Deal of course being the most obvious route to No Brexit at all
    Pretty much. There's no way parliment, or a signifigant majorty of MPs on both sides which would accept no deal.

    Unless we end up there by default as time runs out, which is a possibility.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,877

    Anorak said:

    Looks like TSE has landed on his feet! What a thrilling video.....I'm packing my bags....

    Dunno. Frankfurt doesn't seem to be humming with ethnic diversity according to that.
    I went to Frankfurt once. Rabbits on a roundabout. Some church bell that had all sorts of overtones when rung. Err, most of it passed me by, tbh.
    I have been in Frankfurt and I quite liked it. I did take the opportunity, whilst there, to order Frankfurters :)
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 6,353
    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    Around 30 Labour MPs are set to back May's deal according to reports this morning.

    If we end up with No Deal in November I think a second EU referendum is more likely than not before the Brexit date of the end of March 2019 and Remain would likely win it

    I doubt it. May would propose a Norway model via EFTA as the only plausible safe harbour. This I think would carry in parliament. The ERG would be apoplectic, but they would have been served their just desserts for wrecking any prospect of compromise.
    Problem is she probably wouldn't get a chance as those letters would be flooding in from ERG if she tried it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,846

    Anorak said:

    Looks like TSE has landed on his feet! What a thrilling video.....I'm packing my bags....

    Dunno. Frankfurt doesn't seem to be humming with ethnic diversity according to that.
    I went to Frankfurt once. Rabbits on a roundabout. Some church bell that had all sorts of overtones when rung. Err, most of it passed me by, tbh.
    It does have the Frankfurt Book Fair, an opera house, and an English Theatre. With 750,000 people there's probably a lot going on.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,285

    Anorak said:

    Looks like TSE has landed on his feet! What a thrilling video.....I'm packing my bags....

    Dunno. Frankfurt doesn't seem to be humming with ethnic diversity according to that.
    I went to Frankfurt once. Rabbits on a roundabout. Some church bell that had all sorts of overtones when rung. Err, most of it passed me by, tbh.
    You don't have to go to Frankfurt to see rabbits on a roundabout. I saw a pair at Gatwick Airport once. How the hell they got there and whether they made if off again I'll never know.
  • mattmatt Posts: 1,983
    Sean_F said:

    Anorak said:

    Looks like TSE has landed on his feet! What a thrilling video.....I'm packing my bags....

    Dunno. Frankfurt doesn't seem to be humming with ethnic diversity according to that.
    I went to Frankfurt once. Rabbits on a roundabout. Some church bell that had all sorts of overtones when rung. Err, most of it passed me by, tbh.
    It does have the Frankfurt Book Fair, an opera house, and an English Theatre. With 750,000 people there's probably a lot going on.
    500,000 at weekends though when everybody leaves. Sundays are like the Sundays of one's youth.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,102

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    Around 30 Labour MPs are set to back May's deal according to reports this morning.

    If we end up with No Deal in November I think a second EU referendum is more likely than not before the Brexit date of the end of March 2019 and Remain would likely win it

    I doubt it. May would propose a Norway model via EFTA as the only plausible safe harbour. This I think would carry in parliament. The ERG would be apoplectic, but they would have been served their just desserts for wrecking any prospect of compromise.
    Problem is she probably wouldn't get a chance as those letters would be flooding in from ERG if she tried it.
    That does not stop the fact a majority of MPs would prefer EFTA to No Deal and maybe even up to half of Tory MPs
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,491
    Sean_F said:

    So far, the ERG seem to have exhibited little spine. I think Mrs May would have little risk in facing them down. They appear to be nothing but ill-informed, bluster merchants. Why the Tory party lets them hold it ransom is beyond me.

    I think that May can call their bluff.
    This is all most amusing. The EU have ignored Chequers and are offering CETA. So basically May has achieved nothing and wants to offer a permanent backstop. That is not calling anyones’s bluff.

    IF May had managed to agree Chequers with the EU, you could talk about compromise. But she proposed Chequers because it ‘solved’ the NI border and therefore the backstop would be unnecessary. Since it has been rejected the backstop is certain to be used. So based on May’s public comments she should reject it as the outcome crosses all her redlines. Selling out is simply an act of cowardice and lack of principle, not a compromise. And that is why the ERG and DUP will have no qualms about voting it down.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,102

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Around 30 Labour MPs are set to back May's deal according to reports this morning.

    If we end up with No Deal in November I think a second EU referendum is more likely than not before the Brexit date of the end of March 2019 and Remain would likely win it

    Voting down the deal would put the country on very dangerous and uncertain ground now.

    anything could happen from No-Deal to No Brexit at all, and anyone which says they know what would happen is either an idiot or lying.
    No Deal of course being the most obvious route to No Brexit at all
    Pretty much. There's no way parliment, or a signifigant majorty of MPs on both sides which would accept no deal.

    Unless we end up there by default as time runs out, which is a possibility.
    We will know if No Deal is on the cards next month when negotiations are complete, that gives 4 months until Brexit to change course
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 2,186
    edited October 11

    Looks like TSE has landed on his feet! What a thrilling video.....I'm packing my bags....


    My only visit to Frankfurt was to tour a deep freezer factory.
    Frankfurt has the infamous Lido Club which services (ahem) Rhein-Main AFB. That place is as sketchy as fuck. I went with a USMC KC-130 crew on the way back from Iraq. Once the brawl (employing fists, knives and boots) with Georgian gangsters started I almost wished I was back in Basra. The bouncers will also helpfully escort you to an ATM with a stun gun stuck up your arse if you can't pay your "champagne" bill. Recommended. 4.5 stars on the Dura Ace Depravity Scale.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,675
    matt said:

    Sean_F said:

    Anorak said:

    Looks like TSE has landed on his feet! What a thrilling video.....I'm packing my bags....

    Dunno. Frankfurt doesn't seem to be humming with ethnic diversity according to that.
    I went to Frankfurt once. Rabbits on a roundabout. Some church bell that had all sorts of overtones when rung. Err, most of it passed me by, tbh.
    It does have the Frankfurt Book Fair, an opera house, and an English Theatre. With 750,000 people there's probably a lot going on.
    500,000 at weekends though when everybody leaves. Sundays are like the Sundays of one's youth.
    Germany is quite strict about the Sabbath.

    The football team is decent, Eintrach Frankfurt are doing well. Fox jr did an exchange there and rather liked the city.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,127
    Sean_F said:

    Anorak said:

    Looks like TSE has landed on his feet! What a thrilling video.....I'm packing my bags....

    Dunno. Frankfurt doesn't seem to be humming with ethnic diversity according to that.
    I went to Frankfurt once. Rabbits on a roundabout. Some church bell that had all sorts of overtones when rung. Err, most of it passed me by, tbh.
    It does have the Frankfurt Book Fair, an opera house, and an English Theatre. With 750,000 people there's probably a lot going on.
    I reckon @Thescreamingeagles will be lederhosen clad and will have joined a local Oompah band within a month of touchdown at FRA
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,846
    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    Anorak said:

    Looks like TSE has landed on his feet! What a thrilling video.....I'm packing my bags....

    Dunno. Frankfurt doesn't seem to be humming with ethnic diversity according to that.
    I went to Frankfurt once. Rabbits on a roundabout. Some church bell that had all sorts of overtones when rung. Err, most of it passed me by, tbh.
    It does have the Frankfurt Book Fair, an opera house, and an English Theatre. With 750,000 people there's probably a lot going on.
    I reckon @Thescreamingeagles will be lederhosen clad and will have joined a local Oompah band within a month of touchdown at FRA
    And singing The Happy Wanderer.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,877

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Around 30 Labour MPs are set to back May's deal according to reports this morning.

    If we end up with No Deal in November I think a second EU referendum is more likely than not before the Brexit date of the end of March 2019 and Remain would likely win it

    Voting down the deal would put the country on very dangerous and uncertain ground now.

    anything could happen from No-Deal to No Brexit at all, and anyone which says they know what would happen is either an idiot or lying.
    No Deal of course being the most obvious route to No Brexit at all
    Pretty much. There's no way parliment, or a signifigant majorty of MPs on both sides which would accept no deal.

    Unless we end up there by default as time runs out, which is a possibility.
    I think that if No-Deal becomes imminent - say we reach February with the current paralysis continuing - then realpolitik will kick in and Brexit will be put on "Hold". No Deal has too many downsides for both us and the EU.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 6,353
    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    Around 30 Labour MPs are set to back May's deal according to reports this morning.

    If we end up with No Deal in November I think a second EU referendum is more likely than not before the Brexit date of the end of March 2019 and Remain would likely win it

    I doubt it. May would propose a Norway model via EFTA as the only plausible safe harbour. This I think would carry in parliament. The ERG would be apoplectic, but they would have been served their just desserts for wrecking any prospect of compromise.
    Problem is she probably wouldn't get a chance as those letters would be flooding in from ERG if she tried it.
    That does not stop the fact a majority of MPs would prefer EFTA to No Deal and maybe even up to half of Tory MPs
    Thats true, but it doesn't take a majority for a leadership challenge.

    The ERG can't win for sure, but they can do enough wrecking damage.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,877

    Anorak said:

    Looks like TSE has landed on his feet! What a thrilling video.....I'm packing my bags....

    Dunno. Frankfurt doesn't seem to be humming with ethnic diversity according to that.
    I went to Frankfurt once. Rabbits on a roundabout. Some church bell that had all sorts of overtones when rung. Err, most of it passed me by, tbh.
    You don't have to go to Frankfurt to see rabbits on a roundabout. I saw a pair at Gatwick Airport once. How the hell they got there and whether they made if off again I'll never know.
    Hint: Rabbits dig tunnels ;)

    They do make one heck of a *bump* when you run over them...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,675
    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    Anorak said:

    Looks like TSE has landed on his feet! What a thrilling video.....I'm packing my bags....

    Dunno. Frankfurt doesn't seem to be humming with ethnic diversity according to that.
    I went to Frankfurt once. Rabbits on a roundabout. Some church bell that had all sorts of overtones when rung. Err, most of it passed me by, tbh.
    It does have the Frankfurt Book Fair, an opera house, and an English Theatre. With 750,000 people there's probably a lot going on.
    I reckon @Thescreamingeagles will be lederhosen clad and will have joined a local Oompah band within a month of touchdown at FRA
    I expect that he will enjoy a singalong in the bars:



  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,846
    O/T, Cruz is now up 9% in the latest Quinnipiac poll. It's very hard to see a path now, by which the Democrats can take the Senate.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 30,975
    Dura_Ace said:

    Looks like TSE has landed on his feet! What a thrilling video.....I'm packing my bags....


    My only visit to Frankfurt was to tour a deep freezer factory.
    4.5 stars on the Dura Ace Depravity Scale.
    Ever make it to Tanamur in Jakarta? Asking for a friend.....
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 6,353

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Around 30 Labour MPs are set to back May's deal according to reports this morning.

    If we end up with No Deal in November I think a second EU referendum is more likely than not before the Brexit date of the end of March 2019 and Remain would likely win it

    Voting down the deal would put the country on very dangerous and uncertain ground now.

    anything could happen from No-Deal to No Brexit at all, and anyone which says they know what would happen is either an idiot or lying.
    No Deal of course being the most obvious route to No Brexit at all
    Pretty much. There's no way parliment, or a signifigant majorty of MPs on both sides which would accept no deal.

    Unless we end up there by default as time runs out, which is a possibility.
    I think that if No-Deal becomes imminent - say we reach February with the current paralysis continuing - then realpolitik will kick in and Brexit will be put on "Hold". No Deal has too many downsides for both us and the EU.
    In theory yes. But it only takes 'something' or someone to say 'Nope, March it is, you're out' and we crash out, either on their side, or on ours. Who knows who the PM would be then or what they would say or do, let alone the EU27.

    Even if it's a 10/20/30% chance, it's a risk.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    Anorak said:

    Looks like TSE has landed on his feet! What a thrilling video.....I'm packing my bags....

    Dunno. Frankfurt doesn't seem to be humming with ethnic diversity according to that.
    I went to Frankfurt once. Rabbits on a roundabout. Some church bell that had all sorts of overtones when rung. Err, most of it passed me by, tbh.
    It does have the Frankfurt Book Fair, an opera house, and an English Theatre. With 750,000 people there's probably a lot going on.
    I reckon @Thescreamingeagles will be lederhosen clad and will have joined a local Oompah band within a month of touchdown at FRA
    I’d sooner eat a pizza with pineapple on it.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,092
    edited October 11

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    Around 30 Labour MPs are set to back May's deal according to reports this morning.

    If we end up with No Deal in November I think a second EU referendum is more likely than not before the Brexit date of the end of March 2019 and Remain would likely win it

    I doubt it. May would propose a Norway model via EFTA as the only plausible safe harbour. This I think would carry in parliament. The ERG would be apoplectic, but they would have been served their just desserts for wrecking any prospect of compromise.
    Problem is she probably wouldn't get a chance as those letters would be flooding in from ERG if she tried it.
    The ERG can precipotate a VONC but they can't win it.

    There is an interesting theory that if we went straight from EU membership to EFTA membership we would retain our status as a contracting party to the EEA Agreement. Now the EEA Agreement is outside the customs union and so we could gain the upper hand over the Irish border fandango.
  • Lets be clear - Corbyn wants Brexit. Ideologically he dislikes the capitalist scum in Brussels brutally oppressing the Workers and Peasants. A Marxist crisis in Capitalism bringing about True Socialism is a prize that only is possible very occasionally. Practically he thinks that the EU will stop his ambitions to nationalise Cable and Wireless. Politically he understands that a lot of Labour voters in a lot of swing seats held or targeted want Brexit.

    Whats more, he considers that having his MPs prop up the Tories and thus prove they cannot be trusted is a bonus. Significant chance of a vote where he whips his MPs to vote down a Tory deal that passes enough of Labour's 6 tests to be palatable...
  • Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    Anorak said:

    Looks like TSE has landed on his feet! What a thrilling video.....I'm packing my bags....

    Dunno. Frankfurt doesn't seem to be humming with ethnic diversity according to that.
    I went to Frankfurt once. Rabbits on a roundabout. Some church bell that had all sorts of overtones when rung. Err, most of it passed me by, tbh.
    It does have the Frankfurt Book Fair, an opera house, and an English Theatre. With 750,000 people there's probably a lot going on.
    I reckon @Thescreamingeagles will be lederhosen clad and will have joined a local Oompah band within a month of touchdown at FRA
    I’d sooner eat a pizza with pineapple on it.
    Hard to do that whilst wearing Lederhosen and carrying a Tuba
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,846
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    Anorak said:

    Looks like TSE has landed on his feet! What a thrilling video.....I'm packing my bags....

    Dunno. Frankfurt doesn't seem to be humming with ethnic diversity according to that.
    I went to Frankfurt once. Rabbits on a roundabout. Some church bell that had all sorts of overtones when rung. Err, most of it passed me by, tbh.
    It does have the Frankfurt Book Fair, an opera house, and an English Theatre. With 750,000 people there's probably a lot going on.
    I reckon @Thescreamingeagles will be lederhosen clad and will have joined a local Oompah band within a month of touchdown at FRA
    I expect that he will enjoy a singalong in the bars:



    More like this, surely.


  • JohnRussellJohnRussell Posts: 256
    edited October 11
    If the City types who voted Remain still get to move to Europe for work, while the people who work locally and voted Leave don't... isn't that a nice outcome?
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,491

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Around 30 Labour MPs are set to back May's deal according to reports this morning.

    If we end up with No Deal in November I think a second EU referendum is more likely than not before the Brexit date of the end of March 2019 and Remain would likely win it

    Voting down the deal would put the country on very dangerous and uncertain ground now.

    anything could happen from No-Deal to No Brexit at all, and anyone which says they know what would happen is either an idiot or lying.
    No Deal of course being the most obvious route to No Brexit at all
    Pretty much. There's no way parliment, or a signifigant majorty of MPs on both sides which would accept no deal.

    Unless we end up there by default as time runs out, which is a possibility.
    I think that if No-Deal becomes imminent - say we reach February with the current paralysis continuing - then realpolitik will kick in and Brexit will be put on "Hold". No Deal has too many downsides for both us and the EU.
    The real reason that the establishment are desperate to avoid No Deal is because it will be a success. If the World does not end after all (and apart from a few hairy weeks it will be fine), there will be no way that the UK will ever rejoin or even realign with the EU, and plenty of EU members will start thinking that they can do the same and leave.

    The risk in No Deal is not the economic risk, it is the political fallout. It calls the pro-EU bluff once and for all and they are terrified that their endless fear campaigns will be exposed for the utter nonense that it has always been.

    Whatever the dreams of remainers, if May’s deal is defeated it will be no deal. The HOC is not going to be able to do anything about it.
  • If the City types who voted Remain still get to move to Europe for work, while the people who work locally and voted Leave don't... isn't that a nice outcome?

    No. Those Leave voters are going to miss out on my tax revenues.

    They won’t be happy when the government has to stop their working tax credits.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 2,186



    Ever make it to Tanamur in Jakarta? Asking for a friend.....

    Nope. Never had a run ashore in Indonesia. The Bangkok visit on Invincible remains the gold standard. The aftermath involved the Captain and some briefcase wanker from the British embassy attending a meeting with Thai police where no coffee was served. I had a note that read "stole a tuk-tuk" permanently affixed to my file which is the only reason I never became 1st Sea Lord.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,807
    From pre-EURef it had been put to me that the UK is too large an economy for EEA/EFTA.

    Neither do I think it now likely, nor do I believe the govt could get its sh*t together to organise it, but if they did decide EFTA was the preferred route, having sounded out current EFTA members first, then I'm sure the EU would put everything on hold until it was sorted.

    But once again we would have a FoM roadblock. Or would we......!??
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 30,975

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    Anorak said:

    Looks like TSE has landed on his feet! What a thrilling video.....I'm packing my bags....

    Dunno. Frankfurt doesn't seem to be humming with ethnic diversity according to that.
    I went to Frankfurt once. Rabbits on a roundabout. Some church bell that had all sorts of overtones when rung. Err, most of it passed me by, tbh.
    It does have the Frankfurt Book Fair, an opera house, and an English Theatre. With 750,000 people there's probably a lot going on.
    I reckon @Thescreamingeagles will be lederhosen clad and will have joined a local Oompah band within a month of touchdown at FRA
    I’d sooner eat a pizza with pineapple on it.
    They serve nothing else in Frankfurt......
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,077

    The real reason that the establishment are desperate to avoid No Deal is because it will be a success.

    Unspoofable.

    And someone was objecting to the characterisation of arch-brexiteers as fanatics...
  • JohnRussellJohnRussell Posts: 256

    If the City types who voted Remain still get to move to Europe for work, while the people who work locally and voted Leave don't... isn't that a nice outcome?

    No. Those Leave voters are going to miss out on my tax revenues.

    They won’t be happy when the government has to stop their working tax credits.
    That's not going to happen so I guess they'll manage fine. Nice outcome for everyone
  • mattmatt Posts: 1,983

    If the City types who voted Remain still get to move to Europe for work, while the people who work locally and voted Leave don't... isn't that a nice outcome?

    It depends whether they continue to get their subsidies. Indirectly, once senior people leave, they tend to be less interested in maintaining a presence in their old jurisdiction. To take a pertinent example, on anything other than a compromise exit, if Airbus has any material presence in the UK 10 years from now, I'd be surprised.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,077

    If the City types who voted Remain still get to move to Europe for work, while the people who work locally and voted Leave don't... isn't that a nice outcome?

    No. Those Leave voters are going to miss out on my tax revenues.

    They won’t be happy when the government has to stop their working tax credits.
    "working"
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,877

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Around 30 Labour MPs are set to back May's deal according to reports this morning.

    If we end up with No Deal in November I think a second EU referendum is more likely than not before the Brexit date of the end of March 2019 and Remain would likely win it

    Voting down the deal would put the country on very dangerous and uncertain ground now.

    anything could happen from No-Deal to No Brexit at all, and anyone which says they know what would happen is either an idiot or lying.
    No Deal of course being the most obvious route to No Brexit at all
    Pretty much. There's no way parliment, or a signifigant majorty of MPs on both sides which would accept no deal.

    Unless we end up there by default as time runs out, which is a possibility.
    I think that if No-Deal becomes imminent - say we reach February with the current paralysis continuing - then realpolitik will kick in and Brexit will be put on "Hold". No Deal has too many downsides for both us and the EU.
    In theory yes. But it only takes 'something' or someone to say 'Nope, March it is, you're out' and we crash out, either on their side, or on ours. Who knows who the PM would be then or what they would say or do, let alone the EU27.

    Even if it's a 10/20/30% chance, it's a risk.
    Everything is a risk ;)

    This place is PoliticalBetting, not politicalcertainty.com :D
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 9,099

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Around 30 Labour MPs are set to back May's deal according to reports this morning.

    If we end up with No Deal in November I think a second EU referendum is more likely than not before the Brexit date of the end of March 2019 and Remain would likely win it

    Voting down the deal would put the country on very dangerous and uncertain ground now.

    anything could happen from No-Deal to No Brexit at all, and anyone which says they know what would happen is either an idiot or lying.
    No Deal of course being the most obvious route to No Brexit at all
    Pretty much. There's no way parliment, or a signifigant majorty of MPs on both sides which would accept no deal.

    Unless we end up there by default as time runs out, which is a possibility.
    I think that if No-Deal becomes imminent - say we reach February with the current paralysis continuing - then realpolitik will kick in and Brexit will be put on "Hold". No Deal has too many downsides for both us and the EU.
    I am not sure that’s true. No deal has been on the table for a while.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    Anorak said:

    Looks like TSE has landed on his feet! What a thrilling video.....I'm packing my bags....

    Dunno. Frankfurt doesn't seem to be humming with ethnic diversity according to that.
    I went to Frankfurt once. Rabbits on a roundabout. Some church bell that had all sorts of overtones when rung. Err, most of it passed me by, tbh.
    It does have the Frankfurt Book Fair, an opera house, and an English Theatre. With 750,000 people there's probably a lot going on.
    I reckon @Thescreamingeagles will be lederhosen clad and will have joined a local Oompah band within a month of touchdown at FRA
    I’d sooner eat a pizza with pineapple on it.
    They serve nothing else in Frankfurt......
    I’ve been to Frankfurt several times this year. I’ve been satisfied with the food.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 30,975
    Dura_Ace said:



    Ever make it to Tanamur in Jakarta? Asking for a friend.....

    Nope. Never had a run ashore in Indonesia. The Bangkok visit on Invincible remains the gold standard. The aftermath involved the Captain and some briefcase wanker from the British embassy attending a meeting with Thai police where no coffee was served. I had a note that read "stole a tuk-tuk" permanently affixed to my file which is the only reason I never became 1st Sea Lord.

    "Borrowed" surely?

    I loved the story of slightly squiffy sailors enquiring of the US Cops in Florida 'does the queen know?' HMS not HM....

    I was in Mombassa once when the US Fleet was in port....the working girls had been flocking in from all over East Africa....
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,077
    What do PB's rail cognoscenti think about this? Mr Harris seems like a very sensible chap to me.
  • glwglw Posts: 4,467
    TOPPING said:

    From pre-EURef it had been put to me that the UK is too large an economy for EEA/EFTA.

    Neither do I think it now likely, nor do I believe the govt could get its sh*t together to organise it, but if they did decide EFTA was the preferred route, having sounded out current EFTA members first, then I'm sure the EU would put everything on hold until it was sorted.

    But once again we would have a FoM roadblock. Or would we......!??

    It's almost too sensible to be possible, but I've long felt that we would likely end up with something like EFTA or a facsimile. I just wish we had started off from that position rather than the years of fannying around.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,877

    Dura_Ace said:

    Looks like TSE has landed on his feet! What a thrilling video.....I'm packing my bags....


    My only visit to Frankfurt was to tour a deep freezer factory.
    4.5 stars on the Dura Ace Depravity Scale.
    Ever make it to Tanamur in Jakarta? Asking for a friend.....
    This is rumoured to be the video of his visit. It is why he never talks about it ;)

  • Anorak said:

    If the City types who voted Remain still get to move to Europe for work, while the people who work locally and voted Leave don't... isn't that a nice outcome?

    No. Those Leave voters are going to miss out on my tax revenues.

    They won’t be happy when the government has to stop their working tax credits.
    "working"
    It’ll make them poorer.

    They’ll moan.

    Chavland places like Essex will riot and cause tens of pounds worth of damage.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,807

    Dura_Ace said:



    Ever make it to Tanamur in Jakarta? Asking for a friend.....

    Nope. Never had a run ashore in Indonesia. The Bangkok visit on Invincible remains the gold standard. The aftermath involved the Captain and some briefcase wanker from the British embassy attending a meeting with Thai police where no coffee was served. I had a note that read "stole a tuk-tuk" permanently affixed to my file which is the only reason I never became 1st Sea Lord.

    "Borrowed" surely?

    I loved the story of slightly squiffy sailors enquiring of the US Cops in Florida 'does the queen know?' HMS not HM....

    I was in Mombassa once when the US Fleet was in port....the working girls had been flocking in from all over East Africa....
    And what brought you there, Carlotta?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 30,975
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    Anorak said:

    Looks like TSE has landed on his feet! What a thrilling video.....I'm packing my bags....

    Dunno. Frankfurt doesn't seem to be humming with ethnic diversity according to that.
    I went to Frankfurt once. Rabbits on a roundabout. Some church bell that had all sorts of overtones when rung. Err, most of it passed me by, tbh.
    It does have the Frankfurt Book Fair, an opera house, and an English Theatre. With 750,000 people there's probably a lot going on.
    I reckon @Thescreamingeagles will be lederhosen clad and will have joined a local Oompah band within a month of touchdown at FRA
    I expect that he will enjoy a singalong in the bars:



    In fairness that's more Munich (a much more interesting city) than Frankfurt...
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,119

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    Anorak said:

    Looks like TSE has landed on his feet! What a thrilling video.....I'm packing my bags....

    Dunno. Frankfurt doesn't seem to be humming with ethnic diversity according to that.
    I went to Frankfurt once. Rabbits on a roundabout. Some church bell that had all sorts of overtones when rung. Err, most of it passed me by, tbh.
    It does have the Frankfurt Book Fair, an opera house, and an English Theatre. With 750,000 people there's probably a lot going on.
    I reckon @Thescreamingeagles will be lederhosen clad and will have joined a local Oompah band within a month of touchdown at FRA
    I’d sooner eat a pizza with pineapple on it.
    They serve nothing else in Frankfurt......
    I’ve been to Frankfurt several times this year. I’ve been satisfied with the food.
    It was only after spending several months working in Munich that I realised that, yes, it is possible to tire of pig+cabbage.
  • glwglw Posts: 4,467
    matt said:

    To take a pertinent example, on anything other than a compromise exit, if Airbus has any material presence in the UK 10 years from now, I'd be surprised.

    So would I, but that's got little to do with Brexit and more to do with BAE selling their stake in Airbus about a decade ago.
  • Anorak said:

    The real reason that the establishment are desperate to avoid No Deal is because it will be a success.

    Unspoofable.

    And someone was objecting to the characterisation of arch-brexiteers as fanatics...
    Man with a gun an inch in front of his temple is told by a man stood to the side that when the gun is fired he won't die.

    Easy to spout off about betrayal and it not hurting a bit when you are 10,000 miles away from the consequences of being wrong.
  • Anorak said:

    What do PB's rail cognoscenti think about this? Mr Harris seems like a very sensible chap to me.

    He has really poor judgment, he voted Leave for starters.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,077
    John_M said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    Anorak said:

    Looks like TSE has landed on his feet! What a thrilling video.....I'm packing my bags....

    Dunno. Frankfurt doesn't seem to be humming with ethnic diversity according to that.
    I went to Frankfurt once. Rabbits on a roundabout. Some church bell that had all sorts of overtones when rung. Err, most of it passed me by, tbh.
    It does have the Frankfurt Book Fair, an opera house, and an English Theatre. With 750,000 people there's probably a lot going on.
    I reckon @Thescreamingeagles will be lederhosen clad and will have joined a local Oompah band within a month of touchdown at FRA
    I’d sooner eat a pizza with pineapple on it.
    They serve nothing else in Frankfurt......
    I’ve been to Frankfurt several times this year. I’ve been satisfied with the food.
    It was only after spending several months working in Munich that I realised that, yes, it is possible to tire of pig+cabbage.
    TSE, as he frequently tells us, is a good muslim boy. Cabbage+cabbage it is.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 6,353

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Around 30 Labour MPs are set to back May's deal according to reports this morning.

    If we end up with No Deal in November I think a second EU referendum is more likely than not before the Brexit date of the end of March 2019 and Remain would likely win it

    Voting down the deal would put the country on very dangerous and uncertain ground now.

    anything could happen from No-Deal to No Brexit at all, and anyone which says they know what would happen is either an idiot or lying.
    No Deal of course being the most obvious route to No Brexit at all
    Pretty much. There's no way parliment, or a signifigant majorty of MPs on both sides which would accept no deal.

    Unless we end up there by default as time runs out, which is a possibility.
    I think that if No-Deal becomes imminent - say we reach February with the current paralysis continuing - then realpolitik will kick in and Brexit will be put on "Hold". No Deal has too many downsides for both us and the EU.
    In theory yes. But it only takes 'something' or someone to say 'Nope, March it is, you're out' and we crash out, either on their side, or on ours. Who knows who the PM would be then or what they would say or do, let alone the EU27.

    Even if it's a 10/20/30% chance, it's a risk.
    Everything is a risk ;)

    This place is PoliticalBetting, not politicalcertainty.com :D
    Well it's a little different having a flutter for a few quid and the very fact of the future of the country...
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,077
    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Ever make it to Tanamur in Jakarta? Asking for a friend.....

    Nope. Never had a run ashore in Indonesia. The Bangkok visit on Invincible remains the gold standard. The aftermath involved the Captain and some briefcase wanker from the British embassy attending a meeting with Thai police where no coffee was served. I had a note that read "stole a tuk-tuk" permanently affixed to my file which is the only reason I never became 1st Sea Lord.

    "Borrowed" surely?

    I loved the story of slightly squiffy sailors enquiring of the US Cops in Florida 'does the queen know?' HMS not HM....

    I was in Mombassa once when the US Fleet was in port....the working girls had been flocking in from all over East Africa....
    And what brought you there, Carlotta?
    Her last sentence perhaps answers yours.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 30,975
    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Ever make it to Tanamur in Jakarta? Asking for a friend.....

    Nope. Never had a run ashore in Indonesia. The Bangkok visit on Invincible remains the gold standard. The aftermath involved the Captain and some briefcase wanker from the British embassy attending a meeting with Thai police where no coffee was served. I had a note that read "stole a tuk-tuk" permanently affixed to my file which is the only reason I never became 1st Sea Lord.

    "Borrowed" surely?

    I loved the story of slightly squiffy sailors enquiring of the US Cops in Florida 'does the queen know?' HMS not HM....

    I was in Mombassa once when the US Fleet was in port....the working girls had been flocking in from all over East Africa....
    And what brought you there, Carlotta?
    British Caledonian....
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,119

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Around 30 Labour MPs are set to back May's deal according to reports this morning.

    If we end up with No Deal in November I think a second EU referendum is more likely than not before the Brexit date of the end of March 2019 and Remain would likely win it

    Voting down the deal would put the country on very dangerous and uncertain ground now.

    anything could happen from No-Deal to No Brexit at all, and anyone which says they know what would happen is either an idiot or lying.
    No Deal of course being the most obvious route to No Brexit at all
    Pretty much. There's no way parliment, or a signifigant majorty of MPs on both sides which would accept no deal.

    Unless we end up there by default as time runs out, which is a possibility.
    I think that if No-Deal becomes imminent - say we reach February with the current paralysis continuing - then realpolitik will kick in and Brexit will be put on "Hold". No Deal has too many downsides for both us and the EU.
    In theory yes. But it only takes 'something' or someone to say 'Nope, March it is, you're out' and we crash out, either on their side, or on ours. Who knows who the PM would be then or what they would say or do, let alone the EU27.

    Even if it's a 10/20/30% chance, it's a risk.
    Everything is a risk ;)

    This place is PoliticalBetting, not politicalcertainty.com :D
    Shh. You'll upset HYUFD.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 1,450

    Sean_F said:

    So far, the ERG seem to have exhibited little spine. I think Mrs May would have little risk in facing them down. They appear to be nothing but ill-informed, bluster merchants. Why the Tory party lets them hold it ransom is beyond me.

    I think that May can call their bluff.
    This is all most amusing. The EU have ignored Chequers and are offering CETA. So basically May has achieved nothing and wants to offer a permanent backstop. That is not calling anyones’s bluff.

    IF May had managed to agree Chequers with the EU, you could talk about compromise. But she proposed Chequers because it ‘solved’ the NI border and therefore the backstop would be unnecessary. Since it has been rejected the backstop is certain to be used. So based on May’s public comments she should reject it as the outcome crosses all her redlines. Selling out is simply an act of cowardice and lack of principle, not a compromise. And that is why the ERG and DUP will have no qualms about voting it down.
    Are you concerned that Labour rebels might get it over the line?
  • mattmatt Posts: 1,983
    glw said:

    matt said:

    To take a pertinent example, on anything other than a compromise exit, if Airbus has any material presence in the UK 10 years from now, I'd be surprised.

    So would I, but that's got little to do with Brexit and more to do with BAE selling their stake in Airbus about a decade ago.
    It doesn't, really. It will be entirely to do with Brexit. I'm not going to post my CV to support this though so we're back to anonymous people on the internet make differing claims
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,807

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Ever make it to Tanamur in Jakarta? Asking for a friend.....

    Nope. Never had a run ashore in Indonesia. The Bangkok visit on Invincible remains the gold standard. The aftermath involved the Captain and some briefcase wanker from the British embassy attending a meeting with Thai police where no coffee was served. I had a note that read "stole a tuk-tuk" permanently affixed to my file which is the only reason I never became 1st Sea Lord.

    "Borrowed" surely?

    I loved the story of slightly squiffy sailors enquiring of the US Cops in Florida 'does the queen know?' HMS not HM....

    I was in Mombassa once when the US Fleet was in port....the working girls had been flocking in from all over East Africa....
    And what brought you there, Carlotta?
    British Caledonian....
    :smile:
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,077
    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Around 30 Labour MPs are set to back May's deal according to reports this morning.

    If we end up with No Deal in November I think a second EU referendum is more likely than not before the Brexit date of the end of March 2019 and Remain would likely win it

    Voting down the deal would put the country on very dangerous and uncertain ground now.

    anything could happen from No-Deal to No Brexit at all, and anyone which says they know what would happen is either an idiot or lying.
    No Deal of course being the most obvious route to No Brexit at all
    Pretty much. There's no way parliment, or a signifigant majorty of MPs on both sides which would accept no deal.

    Unless we end up there by default as time runs out, which is a possibility.
    I think that if No-Deal becomes imminent - say we reach February with the current paralysis continuing - then realpolitik will kick in and Brexit will be put on "Hold". No Deal has too many downsides for both us and the EU.
    In theory yes. But it only takes 'something' or someone to say 'Nope, March it is, you're out' and we crash out, either on their side, or on ours. Who knows who the PM would be then or what they would say or do, let alone the EU27.

    Even if it's a 10/20/30% chance, it's a risk.
    Everything is a risk ;)

    This place is PoliticalBetting, not politicalcertainty.com :D
    Shh. You'll upset HYUFD.
    Current polling indicates that HYFUD will not get upset.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,077
    edited October 11
    matt said:

    glw said:

    matt said:

    To take a pertinent example, on anything other than a compromise exit, if Airbus has any material presence in the UK 10 years from now, I'd be surprised.

    So would I, but that's got little to do with Brexit and more to do with BAE selling their stake in Airbus about a decade ago.
    It doesn't, really. It will be entirely to do with Brexit. I'm not going to post my CV to support this though so we're back to anonymous people on the internet make differing claims
    I worked there for a decade, on both sides of the sale date. Absolutely to do with Brexit. The amount of embedded expertise and corporate memory would be a huge, huge task to replace. It would not be contemplated with a very, very compelling reason to do so...
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,877
    John_M said:

    Everything is a risk ;)

    This place is PoliticalBetting, not politicalcertainty.com :D

    Shh. You'll upset HYUFD.
    Everything seems to upset him, so no real downside :D :D
This discussion has been closed.