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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dismantling Obamacare could be what undermines Trump and the GOP in the midterms

In poll after poll in the US the biggest issue to voters is not Kavanaugh’s appointment to the Supreme Court, the economy or immigration but the efforts by the Republicans to water down the limited public health provision that’s available in the US.

Read the full story here

tlg86

First (I even read the header).

Foxy

Second, like Cruz hopefully!

edmundintokyo

This is a tough one, Trump is a memetic savant and master of distraction, so you have to assume he will have control of the news cycle leading up to the elections.

On the other hand it doesn't matter what cultural wedge issue the TV is talking about if you can't hear it over the screams of your dying relative.

JohnRussell

https://twitter.com/historytime_/status/1050627221520404481?s=21

Foxy

The article by Pearl in the header is well worth reading btw.

US Healthcare is extremely successful in its primary aim of extracting the maximum amount of money from the people, much less so at health care goals.

62% of personal bankruptcies occurring through medical bills is a statistic that encompasses a tremendous amount of misery, even in a country where bankruptcy is rather more casually regarded than the UK.

Nigelb

edmundintokyo said:

This is a tough one, Trump is a memetic savant and master of distraction, so you have to assume he will have control of the news cycle leading up to the elections.

On the other hand it doesn't matter what cultural wedge issue the TV is talking about if you can't hear it over the screams of your dying relative.

There are signs that even parts of his base are tiring of the jerk:
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/10/trump-tv-ratings-fox-news-891621

Philip_Thompson

Weren't Churchill and Beveridge calling for a National Health Service even before Bevan did? In 1942.

There were disagreements on implementation but Churchill went into the 1945 election pledging the NHS too.

HYUFD

In 2010 the Democrats lost the House as Republicans turned out to oppose Obamacare, in 2018 we could see the reverse with the Republicans losing the House as Democrats turn out to keep Obamacare and oppose its dismantling

Alistair

Indiana purged at least 20,000 voters in direct contravention of a federal Court order. Potential as many as 450,000.

I'm glad I live in Britain.

DecrepitJohnL

GOP strategy is simply to lie about their policies on Obamacare and Medicare, according to Krugman in the NYTimes.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/11/opinion/republicans-lies-medicare-pre-existing-conditions.html

Alistair

This is the month health insurance price hikes come for a huge wodge of Americans.

DecrepitJohnL

Alistair said:

Indiana purged at least 20,000 voters in direct contravention of a federal Court order. Potential as many as 450,000.

I'm glad I live in Britain.

As I've posted before, the Cameron government's use of similar Republican-inspired ruses led directly to losing the EU referendum and ending the Cameroon hegemony. The reduction in seats is part of that which is still in play.

Purge the rolls (disproportionately purging Remainers, though this was not the intention, which was to make Labour areas seem smaller).
Reduce House to 600 MPs so that every constituency must be redrawn.
Redraw boundaries on the new, Labour-light rolls.
Result: more seats in Conservative areas; fewer in Labour areas.

Nigelb

Alistair said:

Indiana purged at least 20,000 voters in direct contravention of a federal Court order. Potential as many as 450,000.

I'm glad I live in Britain.

There's also recently North Dakota:
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/411085-native-american-tribe-slams-supreme-court-decision-upholding-north
and Georgia:
https://apnews.com/fb011f39af3b40518b572c8cce6e906c

But this happens regularly in a large number of states with a Republican controlled legislature. It's a tactic the right learned from the racist Southern Democrat Jim Crow laws.

edmundintokyo

DecrepitJohnL said:

Alistair said:

Indiana purged at least 20,000 voters in direct contravention of a federal Court order. Potential as many as 450,000.

I'm glad I live in Britain.

As I've posted before, the Cameron government's use of similar Republican-inspired ruses led directly to losing the EU referendum and ending the Cameroon hegemony.

Likewise Labour's ruse of purging long-term overseas residents.

When two dogs are fighting for a bone etc etc.

rkrkrk

DecrepitJohnL said:

GOP strategy is simply to lie about their policies on Obamacare and Medicare, according to Krugman in the NYTimes.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/11/opinion/republicans-lies-medicare-pre-existing-conditions.html

It's worked before. It might work again.
If Trump had managed to get Obamacare repeal through though he would have owned the consequences, and the backlash would have been incredible I think.

HYUFD

After meeting Arlene Foster, Gibralter's Chief Minister Fabian Picardo says he stands with Northern Ireland and the Union

https://mobile.twitter.com/FabianPicardo/status/1050460445151322112

Wulfrun_Phil

DecrepitJohnL said:

Alistair said:

Indiana purged at least 20,000 voters in direct contravention of a federal Court order. Potential as many as 450,000.

I'm glad I live in Britain.

As I've posted before, the Cameron government's use of similar Republican-inspired ruses led directly to losing the EU referendum and ending the Cameroon hegemony. The reduction in seats is part of that which is still in play.

Purge the rolls (disproportionately purging Remainers, though this was not the intention, which was to make Labour areas seem smaller).
Reduce House to 600 MPs so that every constituency must be redrawn.
Redraw boundaries on the new, Labour-light rolls.
Result: more seats in Conservative areas; fewer in Labour areas.

The Conservative ploy of requiring the redrawing of boundaries on electoral rolls designed to be Labour-lite goes beyond even what happens in the US. There, they have to use full population estimates including adjustments to account for those who do not return census forms.

Alistair

Nigelb said:

Alistair said:

Indiana purged at least 20,000 voters in direct contravention of a federal Court order. Potential as many as 450,000.

I'm glad I live in Britain.

There's also recently North Dakota:
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/411085-native-american-tribe-slams-supreme-court-decision-upholding-north
and Georgia:
https://apnews.com/fb011f39af3b40518b572c8cce6e906c

But this happens regularly in a large number of states with a Republican controlled legislature. It's a tactic the right learned from the racist Southern Democrat Jim Crow laws.

The Georgia situation is even more crazy. The person in charge of overseeing elections is... the Republican candidate running for Govenor

edmundintokyo

HYUFD said:

After meeting Arlene Foster, Gibralter's Chief Minister Fabian Picardo says he stands with Northern Ireland and the Union

https://mobile.twitter.com/FabianPicardo/status/1050460445151322112

Stand with Northern Ireland!!! Full regulatory alignment for Gibraltar!!!

What, no, what are you doing, financial what, please no, don't do that, please not the banking regulations, aaargh

Alanbrooke

Brexodus not happening

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/dublin-attracts-the-most-companies-but-no-sign-of-brexodus-1.3660553

Stereotomy

edmundintokyo said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Alistair said:

Indiana purged at least 20,000 voters in direct contravention of a federal Court order. Potential as many as 450,000.

I'm glad I live in Britain.

As I've posted before, the Cameron government's use of similar Republican-inspired ruses led directly to losing the EU referendum and ending the Cameroon hegemony.

Likewise Labour's ruse of purging long-term overseas residents.

When two dogs are fighting for a bone etc etc.

Labour should make polling day a national holiday

AlastairMeeks

A civil servant once pointed out to me that it is hard to take a bone away from a dog once it has been given. That's the basic problem with repealing Obamacare. It may or may not be very good but if you take it away without replacing it, you're taking a bone away from a dog. That needs much more careful management than it seems to have been given.

NickPalmer

Strategically I agree with the header. But in the short term the latest polls don't look bad for the GOP Senate majority:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

NickPalmer

And some really dramatic swings coming up in tomorrow's Bayern elections:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm

Stereotomy

NickPalmer said:

Strategically I agree with the header. But in the short term the latest polls don't look bad for the GOP Senate majority:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Senate majority was always a reach. But anything other than big gains for the GOP sets up the Dems to take the Senate in 2020

Alistair

AlastairMeeks said:

A civil servant once pointed out to me that it is hard to take a bone away from a dog once it has been given. That's the basic problem with repealing Obamacare. It may or may not be very good but if you take it away without replacing it, you're taking a bone away from a dog. That needs much more careful management than it seems to have been given.

Republican law makers are convinced that the population agrees with them that Obamacare is Communism so it doesn't need a replacement it just needs to be dismantled.

stodge

NickPalmer said:

And some really dramatic swings coming up in tomorrow's Bayern elections:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm

Also in Hesse which votes at the end of the month:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/hessen.htm

The only CDU/Green coalition, I believe, and set to survive on these numbers.

Pulpstar

Alistair said:

AlastairMeeks said:

A civil servant once pointed out to me that it is hard to take a bone away from a dog once it has been given. That's the basic problem with repealing Obamacare. It may or may not be very good but if you take it away without replacing it, you're taking a bone away from a dog. That needs much more careful management than it seems to have been given.

Republican law makers are convinced that the population agrees with them that Obamacare is Communism so it doesn't need a replacement it just needs to be dismantled.

Some people don't like Obamacare, because they've got the affordable care act

JosiasJessop

DecrepitJohnL said:

Alistair said:

Indiana purged at least 20,000 voters in direct contravention of a federal Court order. Potential as many as 450,000.

I'm glad I live in Britain.

As I've posted before, the Cameron government's use of similar Republican-inspired ruses led directly to losing the EU referendum and ending the Cameroon hegemony. The reduction in seats is part of that which is still in play.

Purge the rolls (disproportionately purging Remainers, though this was not the intention, which was to make Labour areas seem smaller).
Reduce House to 600 MPs so that every constituency must be redrawn.
Redraw boundaries on the new, Labour-light rolls.
Result: more seats in Conservative areas; fewer in Labour areas.

You may have posted it before, but that doesn't make it right ...

What is your non-partisan (ha!) alternative?

AlastairMeeks

Alistair said:

AlastairMeeks said:

A civil servant once pointed out to me that it is hard to take a bone away from a dog once it has been given. That's the basic problem with repealing Obamacare. It may or may not be very good but if you take it away without replacing it, you're taking a bone away from a dog. That needs much more careful management than it seems to have been given.

Republican law makers are convinced that the population agrees with them that Obamacare is Communism so it doesn't need a replacement it just needs to be dismantled.

Obamacare itself doesn't seem all that intrinsically popular. But compared with nothing as an alternative, it gains enchantment.

JohnRussell

https://twitter.com/thesdpuk/status/1049588099012026368?s=21

Barnesian

Stereotomy said:

NickPalmer said:

Strategically I agree with the header. But in the short term the latest polls don't look bad for the GOP Senate majority:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Senate majority was always a reach. But anything other than big gains for the GOP sets up the Dems to take the Senate in 2020

I agree Senate majority for Democrats is a big stretch. No overall majority according to Betfair rules, not such a stretch.

Democrats have regained an 8%+ lead in the generic poll

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=irpromo

.. and Trump's popularity is declining again.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

Gallowgate

JohnRussell said:

https://twitter.com/thesdpuk/status/1049588099012026368?s=21

The logo looks like its from the 1980s and all.

another_richard

Alanbrooke said:

Brexodus not happening

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/dublin-attracts-the-most-companies-but-no-sign-of-brexodus-1.3660553

' The UK's financial sector could lose more than 200,000 jobs after Brexit, experts have warned.

Xavier Rolet, chief executive of the London Stock Exchange Group (LSE), said two thirds of the job losses would be felt outside Greater London, with the blow coming as soon as Article 50 is triggered.

Speaking to MPs on the Treasury Select Committee, Mr Rolet said the figure came from a report produced by professional services firm EY for the LSE. '

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/brexit-could-leave-200000-financial-sector-jobs-at-risk-experts-warn-a3437331.html

Perhaps the Treasury Select Committee might like to question Monsieur Rolet again ?

NickPalmer

NickPalmer said:

And some really dramatic swings coming up in tomorrow's Bayern elections:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm

Sunday, rather.

DecrepitJohnL

AlastairMeeks said:

A civil servant once pointed out to me that it is hard to take a bone away from a dog once it has been given. That's the basic problem with repealing Obamacare. It may or may not be very good but if you take it away without replacing it, you're taking a bone away from a dog. That needs much more careful management than it seems to have been given.

Ironically the one senior Republican politician who did speak in terms of improving and replacing Obamacare was Donald Trump but, characteristically, he'd not worked out any details so ended up with the Ryan's and the House Republicans' plans to gut it.

Alistair

AlastairMeeks said:

Alistair said:

AlastairMeeks said:

A civil servant once pointed out to me that it is hard to take a bone away from a dog once it has been given. That's the basic problem with repealing Obamacare. It may or may not be very good but if you take it away without replacing it, you're taking a bone away from a dog. That needs much more careful management than it seems to have been given.

Republican law makers are convinced that the population agrees with them that Obamacare is Communism so it doesn't need a replacement it just needs to be dismantled.

Obamacare itself doesn't seem all that intrinsically popular. But compared with nothing as an alternative, it gains enchantment.

Trying to repeal it had a dramatic effect

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/obama_and_democrats_health_care_plan-1130.html

Dura_Ace

JohnRussell said:

https://twitter.com/thesdpuk/status/1049588099012026368?s=21

Begin the resuscitation of David Owen.

Stereotomy

Barnesian said:

Stereotomy said:

NickPalmer said:

Strategically I agree with the header. But in the short term the latest polls don't look bad for the GOP Senate majority:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Senate majority was always a reach. But anything other than big gains for the GOP sets up the Dems to take the Senate in 2020

I agree Senate majority for Democrats is a big stretch. No overall majority according to Betfair rules, not such a stretch.

Democrats have regained an 8%+ lead in the generic poll

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=irpromo

.. and Trump's popularity is declining again.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

But key races aren't polling so well. 538 currently puts the chances at 18%. Impossible no, stretch yes

Pulpstar

With my broadly pro Democrat position I'm happy the conversation is moving onto Obamacare. I think the whole SCOTUS saga was starting to backfire on the Dems near the end, though it would have been worse for them though if Kav had not been confirmed.

DecrepitJohnL

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Alistair said:

Indiana purged at least 20,000 voters in direct contravention of a federal Court order. Potential as many as 450,000.

I'm glad I live in Britain.

As I've posted before, the Cameron government's use of similar Republican-inspired ruses led directly to losing the EU referendum and ending the Cameroon hegemony. The reduction in seats is part of that which is still in play.

Purge the rolls (disproportionately purging Remainers, though this was not the intention, which was to make Labour areas seem smaller).
Reduce House to 600 MPs so that every constituency must be redrawn.
Redraw boundaries on the new, Labour-light rolls.
Result: more seats in Conservative areas; fewer in Labour areas.

You may have posted it before, but that doesn't make it right ...

What is your non-partisan (ha!) alternative?

You are missing the point. It is history, not advocacy. Brexit may or may not be a good thing; likewise Conservative governments. That was the plan. Losing the referendum was the result.

Mortimer

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

Pulpstar

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

I.... think that buys May time with both the ERG and DUP.

Nigelb

There's also the unquantifiable possibility of the Khashoggi affair throwing a spanner in.

Apparently the Turks have audio of his killing in the Saudi consulate:
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/12/middleeast/khashoggi-saudi-turkey-recordings-intl/index.html

Bin Salman 'reached out' directly to Kushner - who allegedly has questionable financial ties to MBS - in the aftermath:
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2018/10/11/journalist-jamal-khashoggi-arwa-damon-pkg-lead-vpx.cnn

JosiasJessop

DecrepitJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Alistair said:

Indiana purged at least 20,000 voters in direct contravention of a federal Court order. Potential as many as 450,000.

I'm glad I live in Britain.

As I've posted before, the Cameron government's use of similar Republican-inspired ruses led directly to losing the EU referendum and ending the Cameroon hegemony. The reduction in seats is part of that which is still in play.

Purge the rolls (disproportionately purging Remainers, though this was not the intention, which was to make Labour areas seem smaller).
Reduce House to 600 MPs so that every constituency must be redrawn.
Redraw boundaries on the new, Labour-light rolls.
Result: more seats in Conservative areas; fewer in Labour areas.

You may have posted it before, but that doesn't make it right ...

What is your non-partisan (ha!) alternative?

You are missing the point. It is history, not advocacy. Brexit may or may not be a good thing; likewise Conservative governments. That was the plan. Losing the referendum was the result.

It isn't 'history'; it's your opinion. The link you've made in the past between the changes and the Brexit referendum aren't that strong or convincing, at least to me.

Mortimer

Pulpstar said:

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

I.... think that buys May time with both the ERG and DUP.

Uk wide, time limited backstop CU has always been the obvious solution.

I think @rcs1000 of this parish suggested it about a year ago...

NickPalmer

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

I'll offer you a further prediction, that the time limit will be hedged in interesting ways, essentially coming down to "can end by mutual agreement".

another_richard

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

But is there a limit to the time limit or a limit to the number of time limits ?

AlastairMeeks

If Penny Mordaunt doesn't resign, it will prove her bark is worse than her bite, and she will be a standing reproach to nominative determinism.

Mortimer

NickPalmer said:

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

I'll offer you a further prediction, that the time limit will be hedged in interesting ways, essentially coming down to "can end by mutual agreement".

Then no deal. We cannot be tied into a customs union. That would be a humiliation for a sovereign nation.

AlastairMeeks

Mortimer said:

NickPalmer said:

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

I'll offer you a further prediction, that the time limit will be hedged in interesting ways, essentially coming down to "can end by mutual agreement".

Then no deal. We cannot be tied into a customs union. That would be a humiliation for a sovereign nation.

Oh dear, the headbanging Leavers have been at the cooking sherry a bit early this morning.

Mortimer

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Alistair said:

Indiana purged at least 20,000 voters in direct contravention of a federal Court order. Potential as many as 450,000.

I'm glad I live in Britain.

As I've posted before, the Cameron government's use of similar Republican-inspired ruses led directly to losing the EU referendum and ending the Cameroon hegemony. The reduction in seats is part of that which is still in play.

Purge the rolls (disproportionately purging Remainers, though this was not the intention, which was to make Labour areas seem smaller).
Reduce House to 600 MPs so that every constituency must be redrawn.
Redraw boundaries on the new, Labour-light rolls.
Result: more seats in Conservative areas; fewer in Labour areas.

You may have posted it before, but that doesn't make it right ...

What is your non-partisan (ha!) alternative?

You are missing the point. It is history, not advocacy. Brexit may or may not be a good thing; likewise Conservative governments. That was the plan. Losing the referendum was the result.

It isn't 'history'; it's your opinion. The link you've made in the past between the changes and the Brexit referendum aren't that strong or convincing, at least to me.

Not least because there is not obvious evidence that the difference between the previous rolls 'voters' and the new rolls voters represented any disenfranchised. Each 'voter' was contacted 9 times....

Big_G_NorthWales

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

With 6 of her inner cabinet demanding a time limit TM has no choice or she would be asked to resign by the cabinet.

I have been critical of TM at times but generally given her the doubt in the absence of an obvious alternative but a time unlimited customs union is a red line for me

DecrepitJohnL

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Alistair said:

Indiana purged at least 20,000 voters in direct contravention of a federal Court order. Potential as many as 450,000.

I'm glad I live in Britain.

As I've posted before, the Cameron government's use of similar Republican-inspired ruses led directly to losing the EU referendum and ending the Cameroon hegemony. The reduction in seats is part of that which is still in play.

Purge the rolls (disproportionately purging Remainers, though this was not the intention, which was to make Labour areas seem smaller).
Reduce House to 600 MPs so that every constituency must be redrawn.
Redraw boundaries on the new, Labour-light rolls.
Result: more seats in Conservative areas; fewer in Labour areas.

You may have posted it before, but that doesn't make it right ...

What is your non-partisan (ha!) alternative?

You are missing the point. It is history, not advocacy. Brexit may or may not be a good thing; likewise Conservative governments. That was the plan. Losing the referendum was the result.

It isn't 'history'; it's your opinion. The link you've made in the past between the changes and the Brexit referendum aren't that strong or convincing, at least to me.

Remember the voter recruitment drive and the last-minute extensions to the registration deadline? It is clear Number 10 had made the connection. The Leavers did too, since they opposed the extension.

Mortimer

AlastairMeeks said:

Mortimer said:

NickPalmer said:

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

I'll offer you a further prediction, that the time limit will be hedged in interesting ways, essentially coming down to "can end by mutual agreement".

Then no deal. We cannot be tied into a customs union. That would be a humiliation for a sovereign nation.

Oh dear, the headbanging Leavers have been at the cooking sherry a bit early this morning.

Didn't you hear, it is clear that the No 10 have caved, if the pre-briefing situation of 'unlimited CU backstop' is to be believed.

Sunil_Prasannan

Gallowgate said:

JohnRussell said:

https://twitter.com/thesdpuk/status/1049588099012026368?s=21

The logo looks like its from the 1980s and all.

They are the folks who refused to merge with the Libs in 1988. The "Liberal Party" also still exists but also very tiny.

Recidivist

Mortimer said:

NickPalmer said:

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

I'll offer you a further prediction, that the time limit will be hedged in interesting ways, essentially coming down to "can end by mutual agreement".

Then no deal. We cannot be tied into a customs union. That would be a humiliation for a sovereign nation.

What is humiliating about entering into a voluntary agreement? Governments have done it all the time throughout history.

Big_G_NorthWales

NickPalmer said:

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

I'll offer you a further prediction, that the time limit will be hedged in interesting ways, essentially coming down to "can end by mutual agreement".

That will not get past the cabinet, let alone the conservative party

Mortimer

DecrepitJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Alistair said:

Indiana purged at least 20,000 voters in direct contravention of a federal Court order. Potential as many as 450,000.

I'm glad I live in Britain.

As I've posted before, the Cameron government's use of similar Republican-inspired ruses led directly to losing the EU referendum and ending the Cameroon hegemony. The reduction in seats is part of that which is still in play.

Purge the rolls (disproportionately purging Remainers, though this was not the intention, which was to make Labour areas seem smaller).
Reduce House to 600 MPs so that every constituency must be redrawn.
Redraw boundaries on the new, Labour-light rolls.
Result: more seats in Conservative areas; fewer in Labour areas.

You may have posted it before, but that doesn't make it right ...

What is your non-partisan (ha!) alternative?

You are missing the point. It is history, not advocacy. Brexit may or may not be a good thing; likewise Conservative governments. That was the plan. Losing the referendum was the result.

It isn't 'history'; it's your opinion. The link you've made in the past between the changes and the Brexit referendum aren't that strong or convincing, at least to me.

Remember the voter recruitment drive and the last-minute extensions to the registration deadline? It is clear Number 10 had made the connection. The Leavers did too, since they opposed the extension.

1) Most of those 'registering' were already on the electoral roll
2) Many of those who weren't would have been new/new to area voters who hadn't successfully registered on turning 18/moving house.
3) Any others had been contacted NINE times to remind them to confirm their details.

IanB2

Mortimer said:

NickPalmer said:

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

I'll offer you a further prediction, that the time limit will be hedged in interesting ways, essentially coming down to "can end by mutual agreement".

Then no deal. We cannot be tied into a customs union. That would be a humiliation for a sovereign nation.

Its a sensible way forward, leaving the final decision on whether to go it alone to a future government. By which time the headbangers will probably have lost what credibility they have.

It is also a consequence of Fox saying it would all be easy with dozens of new trade agreements lined up to go by leaving day, and then achieving precisely nothing in the next two years.

Big_G_NorthWales

Sky news trying to make a big event out of this royal wedding when in truth it is of little interest to most, indeed the crowds are wafer thin

matt

AlastairMeeks said:

Mortimer said:

NickPalmer said:

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

I'll offer you a further prediction, that the time limit will be hedged in interesting ways, essentially coming down to "can end by mutual agreement".

Then no deal. We cannot be tied into a customs union. That would be a humiliation for a sovereign nation.

Oh dear, the headbanging Leavers have been at the cooking sherry a bit early this morning.

Be careful. You’ll be quoted some fantasy golden rule and then have explained that old book selling is key to the future of the British economy.

Mortimer

IanB2 said:

Mortimer said:

NickPalmer said:

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

I'll offer you a further prediction, that the time limit will be hedged in interesting ways, essentially coming down to "can end by mutual agreement".

Then no deal. We cannot be tied into a customs union. That would be a humiliation for a sovereign nation.

Its a sensible way forward, leaving the final decision on whether to go it alone to a future government. By which time the headbangers will probably have lost what credibility they have.

It is also a consequence of Fox saying it would all be easy with dozens of new trade agreements lined up to go by leaving day, and then achieving precisely nothing in the next two years.

The trade deals will be arranged for after the two year transition, and when the full details of our future relationship with the EU has been confirmed.

matt

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

With 6 of her inner cabinet demanding a time limit TM has no choice or she would be asked to resign by the cabinet.

I have been critical of TM at times but generally given her the doubt in the absence of an obvious alternative but a time unlimited customs union is a red line for me

I hope your relative at Airbus is polishing his CV. Still, you’ll have your red lines.

Mortimer

matt said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Mortimer said:

NickPalmer said:

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

I'll offer you a further prediction, that the time limit will be hedged in interesting ways, essentially coming down to "can end by mutual agreement".

Then no deal. We cannot be tied into a customs union. That would be a humiliation for a sovereign nation.

Oh dear, the headbanging Leavers have been at the cooking sherry a bit early this morning.

Be careful. You’ll be quoted some fantasy golden rule and then have explained that old book selling is key to the future of the British economy.

Making up straw men a particularly rewarding hobby, is it?

Big_G_NorthWales

Recidivist said:

Mortimer said:

NickPalmer said:

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

I'll offer you a further prediction, that the time limit will be hedged in interesting ways, essentially coming down to "can end by mutual agreement".

Then no deal. We cannot be tied into a customs union. That would be a humiliation for a sovereign nation.

What is humiliating about entering into a voluntary agreement? Governments have done it all the time throughout history.

Nothing, but you have to have trust and there is no sign of that

SandyRentool

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Gallowgate said:

JohnRussell said:

https://twitter.com/thesdpuk/status/1049588099012026368?s=21

The logo looks like its from the 1980s and all.

They are the folks who refused to merge with the Libs in 1988. The "Liberal Party" also still exists but also very tiny.

Hi Dr P - I did the Gloucestershire & Warwickshire Railway at the weekend - yellow-penned to two end bits which weren't there last time I visited!

IanB2

Mortimer said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Alistair said:

Indiana purged at least 20,000 voters in direct contravention of a federal Court order. Potential as many as 450,000.

I'm glad I live in Britain.

As I've posted before, the Cameron government's use of similar Republican-inspired ruses led directly to losing the EU referendum and ending the Cameroon hegemony. The reduction in seats is part of that which is still in play.

Purge the rolls (disproportionately purging Remainers, though this was not the intention, which was to make Labour areas seem smaller).
Reduce House to 600 MPs so that every constituency must be redrawn.
Redraw boundaries on the new, Labour-light rolls.
Result: more seats in Conservative areas; fewer in Labour areas.

You may have posted it before, but that doesn't make it right ...

What is your non-partisan (ha!) alternative?

You are missing the point. It is history, not advocacy. Brexit may or may not be a good thing; likewise Conservative governments. That was the plan. Losing the referendum was the result.

It isn't 'history'; it's your opinion. The link you've made in the past between the changes and the Brexit referendum aren't that strong or convincing, at least to me.

Not least because there is not obvious evidence that the difference between the previous rolls 'voters' and the new rolls voters represented any disenfranchised. Each 'voter' was contacted 9 times....

And, whilst not denying that some people may have missed out, anyone who has ever canvassed in azibijan will know how many register entries there were under the old system for people who had long gone away, or were never entitled to be on the list.

That should be "an urban area", but my phone made this into azibijan and I am sure it holds true there as well.

SquareRoot

Alanbrooke said:

Brexodus not happening

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/dublin-attracts-the-most-companies-but-no-sign-of-brexodus-1.3660553

Surprise surprise.. all the negativity posted about dire consequences of brexit proves to be with little or no foundation..

Big_G_NorthWales

matt said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

With 6 of her inner cabinet demanding a time limit TM has no choice or she would be asked to resign by the cabinet.

I have been critical of TM at times but generally given her the doubt in the absence of an obvious alternative but a time unlimited customs union is a red line for me

I hope your relative at Airbus is polishing his CV. Still, you’ll have your red lines.

He is only a couple of years from retirement but I defend Airbus for the immense importance is has to the economy of North Wales

IanB2

Mortimer said:

IanB2 said:

Mortimer said:

NickPalmer said:

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

I'll offer you a further prediction, that the time limit will be hedged in interesting ways, essentially coming down to "can end by mutual agreement".

Then no deal. We cannot be tied into a customs union. That would be a humiliation for a sovereign nation.

Its a sensible way forward, leaving the final decision on whether to go it alone to a future government. By which time the headbangers will probably have lost what credibility they have.

It is also a consequence of Fox saying it would all be easy with dozens of new trade agreements lined up to go by leaving day, and then achieving precisely nothing in the next two years.

The trade deals will be arranged for after the two year transition, and when the full details of our future relationship with the EU has been confirmed.

Rather different from what was said during the vote.

Mortimer

IanB2 said:

Mortimer said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Alistair said:

Indiana purged at least 20,000 voters in direct contravention of a federal Court order. Potential as many as 450,000.

I'm glad I live in Britain.

As I've posted before, the Cameron government's use of similar Republican-inspired ruses led directly to losing the EU referendum and ending the Cameroon hegemony. The reduction in seats is part of that which is still in play.

Purge the rolls (disproportionately purging Remainers, though this was not the intention, which was to make Labour areas seem smaller).
Reduce House to 600 MPs so that every constituency must be redrawn.
Redraw boundaries on the new, Labour-light rolls.
Result: more seats in Conservative areas; fewer in Labour areas.

You may have posted it before, but that doesn't make it right ...

What is your non-partisan (ha!) alternative?

You are missing the point. It is history, not advocacy. Brexit may or may not be a good thing; likewise Conservative governments. That was the plan. Losing the referendum was the result.

It isn't 'history'; it's your opinion. The link you've made in the past between the changes and the Brexit referendum aren't that strong or convincing, at least to me.

Not least because there is not obvious evidence that the difference between the previous rolls 'voters' and the new rolls voters represented any disenfranchised. Each 'voter' was contacted 9 times....

And, whilst not denying that some people may have missed out, anyone who has ever canvassed in azibijan will know how many register entries there were under the old system for people who had long gone away, or were never entitled to be on the list.

That should be "an urban area", but my phone made this into azibijan and I am sure it holds true there as well.

Yep, absolutely.

IanB2

SquareRoot said:

Alanbrooke said:

Brexodus not happening

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/dublin-attracts-the-most-companies-but-no-sign-of-brexodus-1.3660553

Surprise surprise.. all the negativity posted about dire consequences of brexit proves to be with little or no foundation..

Way too early to say

Morris_Dancer

Mr. B, the news report I saw a few nights ago said that all the non-Saudi staff were not in the embassy on the day, and that the CCTV was mysteriously not working.

I'm not saying it looks suspicious, but I doubt the journalist secretly absconded to admire the world famous Salisbury Cathedral.

SandyRentool

Anecdote: Family friends' daughter got chatted up by Jezza's son in a bar. No further details forthcoming!

Stereotomy

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

What about NI staying in the SM during that period? I'm not clear on whether that's currently part of May's plan or not.

Mortimer

Big_G_NorthWales said:

matt said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

With 6 of her inner cabinet demanding a time limit TM has no choice or she would be asked to resign by the cabinet.

I have been critical of TM at times but generally given her the doubt in the absence of an obvious alternative but a time unlimited customs union is a red line for me

I hope your relative at Airbus is polishing his CV. Still, you’ll have your red lines.

He is only a couple of years from retirement but I defend Airbus for the immense importance is has to the economy of North Wales

Rising above the snide comments of others, as ever, bravo BigG.

Incidentally, I have a relative who works in Airbus too - used to be with them in North Wales (I have family from Rhyl) and then Bristol but moved to Toulouse about 15 years ago, so their children have grown up bi-lingual. He loves it - small world!

Mortimer

Stereotomy said:

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

What about NI staying in the SM during that period? I'm not clear on whether that's currently part of May's plan or not.

No news on that in the bulletin.... I think we'll know as soon as the DUP do, they're very good at getting press releases out.

Big_G_NorthWales

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

matt said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

With 6 of her inner cabinet demanding a time limit TM has no choice or she would be asked to resign by the cabinet.

I have been critical of TM at times but generally given her the doubt in the absence of an obvious alternative but a time unlimited customs union is a red line for me

I hope your relative at Airbus is polishing his CV. Still, you’ll have your red lines.

He is only a couple of years from retirement but I defend Airbus for the immense importance is has to the economy of North Wales

Rising above the snide comments of others, as ever, bravo BigG.

Incidentally, I have a relative who works in Airbus too - used to be with them in North Wales (I have family from Rhyl) and then Bristol but moved to Toulouse about 15 years ago, so their children have grown up bi-lingual. He loves it - small world!

It is indeed.

My son in law commutes from Broughton to Toulouse regularly as well as Germany and Spain

SquareRoot

IanB2 said:

SquareRoot said:

Alanbrooke said:

Brexodus not happening

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/dublin-attracts-the-most-companies-but-no-sign-of-brexodus-1.3660553

Surprise surprise.. all the negativity posted about dire consequences of brexit proves to be with little or no foundation..

Way too early to say

Yup but nothing like the disaster portrayed on here by
some posters

JohnRussell

IanB2 said:

SquareRoot said:

Alanbrooke said:

Brexodus not happening

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/dublin-attracts-the-most-companies-but-no-sign-of-brexodus-1.3660553

Surprise surprise.. all the negativity posted about dire consequences of brexit proves to be with little or no foundation..

Way too early to say

Actually it’s not.

“The UK's financial sector could lose more than 200,000 jobs after Brexit, experts have warned.

Xavier Rolet, chief executive of the London Stock Exchange Group (LSE), said two thirds of the job losses would be felt outside Greater London, with the blow coming as soon as Article 50 is triggered. ”

A50 has been triggered, the jobs haven’t been lost, it’s not too early to point that out.

Theuniondivvie

AlastairMeeks said:

Mortimer said:

NickPalmer said:

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

I'll offer you a further prediction, that the time limit will be hedged in interesting ways, essentially coming down to "can end by mutual agreement".

Then no deal. We cannot be tied into a customs union. That would be a humiliation for a sovereign nation.

Oh dear, the headbanging Leavers have been at the cooking sherry a bit early this morning.

In their customary aspirational manner the headbangers will be more offended at the suggestion that it might be cooking sherry rather than the finest products of Andalucian bodegas.

SquareRoot

JohnRussell said:

IanB2 said:

SquareRoot said:

Alanbrooke said:

Brexodus not happening

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/dublin-attracts-the-most-companies-but-no-sign-of-brexodus-1.3660553

Surprise surprise.. all the negativity posted about dire consequences of brexit proves to be with little or no foundation..

Way too early to say

Actually it’s not.

“The UK's financial sector could lose more than 200,000 jobs after Brexit, experts have warned.

Xavier Rolet, chief executive of the London Stock Exchange Group (LSE), said two thirds of the job losses would be felt outside Greater London, with the blow coming as soon as Article 50 is triggered. ”

A50 has been triggered, the jobs haven’t been lost, it’s not too early to point that out.

These experts..Were fhey 364 economists by any chance ?

IanB2

JohnRussell said:

IanB2 said:

SquareRoot said:

Alanbrooke said:

Brexodus not happening

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/dublin-attracts-the-most-companies-but-no-sign-of-brexodus-1.3660553

Surprise surprise.. all the negativity posted about dire consequences of brexit proves to be with little or no foundation..

Way too early to say

Actually it’s not.

“The UK's financial sector could lose more than 200,000 jobs after Brexit, experts have warned.

Xavier Rolet, chief executive of the London Stock Exchange Group (LSE), said two thirds of the job losses would be felt outside Greater London, with the blow coming as soon as Article 50 is triggered. ”

A50 has been triggered, the jobs haven’t been lost, it’s not too early to point that out.

Cheap point scoring helps no-one. It is hardly consolation if the impact on real jobs and real lives comes after we leave. So it's too early to say.

Stereotomy

Mortimer said:

Stereotomy said:

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

What about NI staying in the SM during that period? I'm not clear on whether that's currently part of May's plan or not.

No news on that in the bulletin.... I think we'll know as soon as the DUP do, they're very good at getting press releases out.

Isn't that what they've been sabre-rattling about this week?

Benpointer

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sky news trying to make a big event out of this royal wedding when in truth it is of little interest to most, indeed the crowds are wafer thin

I'm no supporter of the Royals (far from it) but I hope the weather in Windsor is a lot kinder to the happy couple than it is here in Dorset at the moment. Bit of a shock to come back to after 10 days in Andalucia!

Mortimer

Stereotomy said:

Mortimer said:

Stereotomy said:

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

What about NI staying in the SM during that period? I'm not clear on whether that's currently part of May's plan or not.

No news on that in the bulletin.... I think we'll know as soon as the DUP do, they're very good at getting press releases out.

Isn't that what they've been sabre-rattling about this week?

Yep; but matters have been slightly confused because there was also Brexiteer objection to a mooted permanent Customs Union.

Mortimer

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sky news trying to make a big event out of this royal wedding when in truth it is of little interest to most, indeed the crowds are wafer thin

I'm no supporter of the Royals (far from it) but I hope the weather in Windsor is a lot kinder to the happy couple than it is here in Dorset at the moment. Bit of a shock to come back to after 10 days in Andalucia!

Indeed.

The hound hasn’t seemed keen on going out this morning - which is a relief. At least it has stopped raining here in South dorset.

Morris_Dancer

F1: George Russell will be driving for Williams next year:
https://twitter.com/GeorgeRussell63/status/1050679444422180864

Benpointer

Theuniondivvie said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Mortimer said:

NickPalmer said:

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

I'll offer you a further prediction, that the time limit will be hedged in interesting ways, essentially coming down to "can end by mutual agreement".

Then no deal. We cannot be tied into a customs union. That would be a humiliation for a sovereign nation.

Oh dear, the headbanging Leavers have been at the cooking sherry a bit early this morning.

In their customary aspirational manner the headbangers will be more offended at the suggestion that it might be cooking sherry rather than the finest products of Andalucian bodegas.

Surely drinking anything other than british wine would be 'a humiliation for a sovereign nation'?

Stereotomy

Mortimer said:

Stereotomy said:

Mortimer said:

Stereotomy said:

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

What about NI staying in the SM during that period? I'm not clear on whether that's currently part of May's plan or not.

No news on that in the bulletin.... I think we'll know as soon as the DUP do, they're very good at getting press releases out.

Isn't that what they've been sabre-rattling about this week?

Yep; but matters have been slightly confused because there was also Brexiteer objection to a mooted permanent Customs Union.

I think May is now in the Trumpian position of agreeing with the last person she spoke to. When it's the EU, the backstop is permanent. When it's a Leaver, it's temporary

Big_G_NorthWales

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sky news trying to make a big event out of this royal wedding when in truth it is of little interest to most, indeed the crowds are wafer thin

I'm no supporter of the Royals (far from it) but I hope the weather in Windsor is a lot kinder to the happy couple than it is here in Dorset at the moment. Bit of a shock to come back to after 10 days in Andalucia!

Seems to be but very windy. We are about to be hit by storm Callum

Hope you enjoyed your holiday

tlg86

@Morris_Dancer - I see Red Bull wouldn't let Max Verstappen have a go on a MotoGP bike:

http://motogpnews.com/2018/10/11/verstappen-denied-motogp-outing-by-red-bull/

Recidivist

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Recidivist said:

Mortimer said:

NickPalmer said:

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

I'll offer you a further prediction, that the time limit will be hedged in interesting ways, essentially coming down to "can end by mutual agreement".

Then no deal. We cannot be tied into a customs union. That would be a humiliation for a sovereign nation.

What is humiliating about entering into a voluntary agreement? Governments have done it all the time throughout history.

Nothing, but you have to have trust and there is no sign of that

I am sure the EU are as frustrated by our government's indecision as most of us are, but I don't think we have got to the stage they positively distrust us yet.

Big_G_NorthWales

Stereotomy said:

Mortimer said:

Stereotomy said:

Mortimer said:

Stereotomy said:

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

What about NI staying in the SM during that period? I'm not clear on whether that's currently part of May's plan or not.

No news on that in the bulletin.... I think we'll know as soon as the DUP do, they're very good at getting press releases out.

Isn't that what they've been sabre-rattling about this week?

Yep; but matters have been slightly confused because there was also Brexiteer objection to a mooted permanent Customs Union.

I think May is now in the Trumpian position of agreeing with the last person she spoke to. When it's the EU, the backstop is permanent. When it's a Leaver, it's temporary

It is not a leaver, it is her cabinet and she has no choice but to accept their collective view or the cabinet will seek her resignation

JosiasJessop

SandyRentool said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Gallowgate said:

JohnRussell said:

https://twitter.com/thesdpuk/status/1049588099012026368?s=21

The logo looks like its from the 1980s and all.

They are the folks who refused to merge with the Libs in 1988. The "Liberal Party" also still exists but also very tiny.

Hi Dr P - I did the Gloucestershire & Warwickshire Railway at the weekend - yellow-penned to two end bits which weren't there last time I visited!

Hey, were you there on Sunday? I was on a walk, and nipped up to see the newly-opened Broadway station in the early afternoon, just as a Class 20 pulled a train in.

The new station looks spectacular - they've done an amazing job. It's just a shame it celebrates the copper-headed lot.

Benpointer

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sky news trying to make a big event out of this royal wedding when in truth it is of little interest to most, indeed the crowds are wafer thin

I'm no supporter of the Royals (far from it) but I hope the weather in Windsor is a lot kinder to the happy couple than it is here in Dorset at the moment. Bit of a shock to come back to after 10 days in Andalucia!

Indeed.

The hound hasn’t seemed keen on going out this morning - which is a relief. At least it has stopped raining here in South dorset.

Mrs P has just gone to pick ours up from the kennels... suspect he'll be raring to go whatever the weather.

Theuniondivvie

Benpointer said:

Theuniondivvie said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Mortimer said:

NickPalmer said:

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

I'll offer you a further prediction, that the time limit will be hedged in interesting ways, essentially coming down to "can end by mutual agreement".

Then no deal. We cannot be tied into a customs union. That would be a humiliation for a sovereign nation.

Oh dear, the headbanging Leavers have been at the cooking sherry a bit early this morning.

In their customary aspirational manner the headbangers will be more offended at the suggestion that it might be cooking sherry rather than the finest products of Andalucian bodegas.

Surely drinking anything other than british wine would be 'a humiliation for a sovereign nation'?

There's always Buckfast I guess..

IanB2

Stereotomy said:

Mortimer said:

Stereotomy said:

Mortimer said:

Stereotomy said:

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

What about NI staying in the SM during that period? I'm not clear on whether that's currently part of May's plan or not.

No news on that in the bulletin.... I think we'll know as soon as the DUP do, they're very good at getting press releases out.

Isn't that what they've been sabre-rattling about this week?

Yep; but matters have been slightly confused because there was also Brexiteer objection to a mooted permanent Customs Union.

I think May is now in the Trumpian position of agreeing with the last person she spoke to. When it's the EU, the backstop is permanent. When it's a Leaver, it's temporary

Any time stated can always be changed or abandoned later, so this is mostly presentation anyway.

Benpointer

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stereotomy said:

Mortimer said:

Stereotomy said:

Mortimer said:

Stereotomy said:

Mortimer said:

I note my prediction yesterday morning has come to pass, albeit a few hours late. 9am R4 news bulletin saw Downing St spokesman confirm that any customs union would be time limited.

Good.

What about NI staying in the SM during that period? I'm not clear on whether that's currently part of May's plan or not.

No news on that in the bulletin.... I think we'll know as soon as the DUP do, they're very good at getting press releases out.

Isn't that what they've been sabre-rattling about this week?

Yep; but matters have been slightly confused because there was also Brexiteer objection to a mooted permanent Customs Union.

I think May is now in the Trumpian position of agreeing with the last person she spoke to. When it's the EU, the backstop is permanent. When it's a Leaver, it's temporary

It is not a leaver, it is her cabinet and she has no choice but to accept their collective view or the cabinet will seek her resignation

... and then do what excatly? There are no happy choices for the Tories beyond sticking with May.