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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » I’m now betting that Brexit won’t happen next March 29th as planned

I think people are massively underestimating the impact of no deal with voters on a) the Tory brand b) the credibility of Brexit.

Read the full story here

CarlottaVance

First! Like Leave.....

CarlottaVance

That people might just say of this is all too difficult so let’s let’s scrap Brexit. That could start to take hold within parts of the electorate and the mood could change quite sharply.


Up to a point, Lord Copper.

The electorate could just as easily say 'well, if the EU don't want a deal, they can Foxtrot Oscar' and we crash out.

Tales of Armageddon when we voted to Leave didn't quite come to pass, so 'Tales of Armageddon Two' may not be believed.

JosiasJessop

Off-topic:

An interesting article on Bellingcat about how people 'convert' to fascism in the US:
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/americas/2018/10/11/memes-infowars-75-fascist-activists-red-pilled/

swing_voter

I am bemused by the heading...."I’m now betting that Brexit won’t happen next March 29th as planned"

to be 100% serious was there ever an "as planned" BREXIT?

edmundintokyo

The reason this is such stormingly great value is, even if you think there's going to be a deal and everything will work out fine, when did anything like this ever happen on schedule?

edmundintokyo

CarlottaVance said:

That people might just say of this is all too difficult so let’s let’s scrap Brexit. That could start to take hold within parts of the electorate and the mood could change quite sharply.


Up to a point, Lord Copper.

The electorate could just as easily say 'well, if the EU don't want a deal, they can Foxtrot Oscar' and we crash out.

Tales of Armageddon when we voted to Leave didn't quite come to pass, so 'Tales of Armageddon Two' may not be believed.

Even crashing out feels like it would benefit from an extension, though. Wouldn't everyone rather have time to fasten their seatbelts?

rcs1000

edmundintokyo said:

CarlottaVance said:

That people might just say of this is all too difficult so let’s let’s scrap Brexit. That could start to take hold within parts of the electorate and the mood could change quite sharply.


Up to a point, Lord Copper.

The electorate could just as easily say 'well, if the EU don't want a deal, they can Foxtrot Oscar' and we crash out.

Tales of Armageddon when we voted to Leave didn't quite come to pass, so 'Tales of Armageddon Two' may not be believed.

Even crashing out feels like it would benefit from an extension, though. Wouldn't everyone rather have time to fasten their seatbelts?

That is a seriously good point

AlastairMeeks

I had taken the opposite view for a long time but I have closed to zero my position on Britain leaving the EU on time. I’m not rushing to reverse my position because I still expect a deal to be done. The chances of no deal now look substantial, however, and if no deal is done either a reversal of Brexit or some additional time to tidy up the multitude of low level agreements required becomes possible:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/07/08/the-fly-in-the-ointment-how-brexit-may-be-delayed-by-no-deal/

AndyJS

Latest CBS/YouGov forecast for the House:

Dem: 226
GOP: 209

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democratic-lead-continues-to-grow-in-race-for-house-cbs-news-poll-battleground-tracker/

IanB2

So William stands a chance with his bet after all?

Jonathan

edmundintokyo said:

CarlottaVance said:

That people might just say of this is all too difficult so let’s let’s scrap Brexit. That could start to take hold within parts of the electorate and the mood could change quite sharply.


Up to a point, Lord Copper.

The electorate could just as easily say 'well, if the EU don't want a deal, they can Foxtrot Oscar' and we crash out.

Tales of Armageddon when we voted to Leave didn't quite come to pass, so 'Tales of Armageddon Two' may not be believed.

Even crashing out feels like it would benefit from an extension, though. Wouldn't everyone rather have time to fasten their seatbelts?

There is the fear that the longer we leave it, the less chance we actually leave. Hence some considerable pressure to get things done.

rcs1000

AlastairMeeks said:

I had taken the opposite view for a long time but I have closed to zero my position on Britain leaving the EU on time. I’m not rushing to reverse my position because I still expect a deal to be done. The chances of no deal now look substantial, however, and if no deal is done either a reversal of Brexit or some additional time to tidy up the multitude of low level agreements required becomes possible:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/07/08/the-fly-in-the-ointment-how-brexit-may-be-delayed-by-no-deal/

Interestingly, I'm taking the opposite view. The more sound and fury and threats now, the more likely a deal.

rcs1000

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

An interesting article on Bellingcat about how people 'convert' to fascism in the US:
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/americas/2018/10/11/memes-infowars-75-fascist-activists-red-pilled/

When you say "interesting", I think you mean "scary".

OldKingCole

swing_voter said:

I am bemused by the heading...."I’m now betting that Brexit won’t happen next March 29th as planned"

to be 100% serious was there ever an "as planned" BREXIT?

What ‘planning'? By whom?

JosiasJessop

rcs1000 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

An interesting article on Bellingcat about how people 'convert' to fascism in the US:
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/americas/2018/10/11/memes-infowars-75-fascist-activists-red-pilled/

When you say "interesting", I think you mean "scary".

'scary' is already priced in to these loons. It's interesting to see what they claim sent them down that scary route, though.

It's also interesting to see how some of those sources are the same ones that Plato used to fiercely publicise and defend, at least in her second incarnation.

logical_song

Now 40% on Betfair.

Casino_Royale

rcs1000 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

An interesting article on Bellingcat about how people 'convert' to fascism in the US:
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/americas/2018/10/11/memes-infowars-75-fascist-activists-red-pilled/

When you say "interesting", I think you mean "scary".

They watch Man in The High Castle, and go... “hmm.. that looks good.” ?

Casino_Royale

rcs1000 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I had taken the opposite view for a long time but I have closed to zero my position on Britain leaving the EU on time. I’m not rushing to reverse my position because I still expect a deal to be done. The chances of no deal now look substantial, however, and if no deal is done either a reversal of Brexit or some additional time to tidy up the multitude of low level agreements required becomes possible:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/07/08/the-fly-in-the-ointment-how-brexit-may-be-delayed-by-no-deal/

Interestingly, I'm taking the opposite view. The more sound and fury and threats now, the more likely a deal.

I’m not changing my position.

I can’t work out if this is a bit of panto or a serious threat/risk to the talks.

I suspect it’s a bit of both.

logical_song

rcs1000 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I had taken the opposite view for a long time but I have closed to zero my position on Britain leaving the EU on time. I’m not rushing to reverse my position because I still expect a deal to be done. The chances of no deal now look substantial, however, and if no deal is done either a reversal of Brexit or some additional time to tidy up the multitude of low level agreements required becomes possible:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/07/08/the-fly-in-the-ointment-how-brexit-may-be-delayed-by-no-deal/

Interestingly, I'm taking the opposite view. The more sound and fury and threats now, the more likely a deal.

If a deal is to be done doesn't that mean either:

a) the DUP backtracking - not something they are known for.
Or
b) the EU accepting a time limited backstop - which I can't see happening.

.. and that's forgetting about the ERG, Boris, other Tory factions and the Labour party.

rkrkrk

I think it's important to look at the t's and c's on this one. From memory, the betfair rules define 'leaving' quite broadly.

I cashed out on this one a while back, but I am still invested in the "which to happen first, May goes or Brexit" market. I still think that's value (1.61/1.67 on betfair atm). I don't see that anyone really wants the job before she makes the difficult compromises.

AlastairMeeks

rcs1000 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I had taken the opposite view for a long time but I have closed to zero my position on Britain leaving the EU on time. I’m not rushing to reverse my position because I still expect a deal to be done. The chances of no deal now look substantial, however, and if no deal is done either a reversal of Brexit or some additional time to tidy up the multitude of low level agreements required becomes possible:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/07/08/the-fly-in-the-ointment-how-brexit-may-be-delayed-by-no-deal/

Interestingly, I'm taking the opposite view. The more sound and fury and threats now, the more likely a deal.

There’s the will. Given the forces in Parliament, there may not be a way.

Freggles

logical_song said:

rcs1000 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I had taken the opposite view for a long time but I have closed to zero my position on Britain leaving the EU on time. I’m not rushing to reverse my position because I still expect a deal to be done. The chances of no deal now look substantial, however, and if no deal is done either a reversal of Brexit or some additional time to tidy up the multitude of low level agreements required becomes possible:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/07/08/the-fly-in-the-ointment-how-brexit-may-be-delayed-by-no-deal/

Interestingly, I'm taking the opposite view. The more sound and fury and threats now, the more likely a deal.

If a deal is to be done doesn't that mean either:

a) the DUP backtracking - not something they are known for.
Or
b) the EU accepting a time limited backstop - which I can't see happening.

.. and that's forgetting about the ERG, Boris, other Tory factions and the Labour party.

or DUP vote against but ten Labour MPs vote for the May deal.

ThomasNashe

Freggles said:

logical_song said:

rcs1000 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I had taken the opposite view for a long time but I have closed to zero my position on Britain leaving the EU on time. I’m not rushing to reverse my position because I still expect a deal to be done. The chances of no deal now look substantial, however, and if no deal is done either a reversal of Brexit or some additional time to tidy up the multitude of low level agreements required becomes possible:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/07/08/the-fly-in-the-ointment-how-brexit-may-be-delayed-by-no-deal/

Interestingly, I'm taking the opposite view. The more sound and fury and threats now, the more likely a deal.

If a deal is to be done doesn't that mean either:

a) the DUP backtracking - not something they are known for.
Or
b) the EU accepting a time limited backstop - which I can't see happening.

.. and that's forgetting about the ERG, Boris, other Tory factions and the Labour party.

or DUP vote against but ten Labour MPs vote for the May deal.

Or greater numbers of them abstain.

MikeSmithson

These are the Betfair terms for the market

Will the United Kingdom officially leave the European Union before the 29/03/2019 - 23:59:59? For the purposes of this market leaving the EU is defined as the date when the treaties of the EU cease to apply to the UK. Examples of when this might occur include, but are not limited, to: the date specified in a withdrawal agreement between the UK and the EU; the end of the two year negotiating period (29/03/2019) as set out by Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty (or any extension to this time period); or the date of the repeal of the 1972 European Communities Act. If more than one of these events were to occur, this market will be settled on the first of these events to occur. In the case of the two year time period in Article 50 being extended, via a unanimous vote by all EU Member States, we will settle this market on the extended date. This market will settle when the UK leaves the EU even if parts of the UK (e.g. Scotland, Northern Ireland) leave the UK or receive special status within the EU. In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.

OldKingCole

Is there a crucial Brexit vote before the Budget on 29th?

Roger

Dominic Cummings comparing 'Remain' to being locked in the boot of a car and heading to a place that we can't see but we know we don't want to go to under the strap line 'Take Control'......

.....will go down as one of the greatest advertising misfires of the 21st century!

Alanbrooke

Bavarian election

after the final count CSU did slightly better than first forecasts as 37.2% Greens and Afd slightly worse 17.9% and 10.2%. FDP vote scraped over 5% at 5.1% and the SPD had a disaster losing over 50% of their vote 20.6% in 2013 to 9,7% in 2018.

The germans are now trying to work out what this all means nationally.

edmundintokyo

Jonathan said:

There is the fear that the longer we leave it, the less chance we actually leave. Hence some considerable pressure to get things done.

That's absolutely right, and it's why nobody's wanted to be seen advocating a delay until very recently. But once you've got an actual specific outcome on the table, the dynamics change:

* The people not pushing for that outcome are about to end up with something they consider sub-optimal, so they have a reason to keep the ball in play in the hope of getting something better

* The people pushing for that outcome are most likely also the people responsible for delivering it, and will be strongly incentivized to try to reduce the clusterfuckiness of the ensuing clusterfuck.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

If we did get no deal, it would depend where blame was seen to lie. It could be seen as Conservative incompetence, or the UK defying the hostile demands of a foreign power. (Of course, it'd likely be seen as both, with diehard supporters either side lining up for/against the blues and the floating voter determining which side is in the majority).

hamiltonace

There is a further issue which has been underestimated. Once a deal is complete only then does business get its say. There is a high risk business says it is unworkable in certain areas. Will parliament push on regardless? It appears too little time being spent on regulations and too much on custom duties.

Jonathan

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I had taken the opposite view for a long time but I have closed to zero my position on Britain leaving the EU on time. I’m not rushing to reverse my position because I still expect a deal to be done. The chances of no deal now look substantial, however, and if no deal is done either a reversal of Brexit or some additional time to tidy up the multitude of low level agreements required becomes possible:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/07/08/the-fly-in-the-ointment-how-brexit-may-be-delayed-by-no-deal/

Interestingly, I'm taking the opposite view. The more sound and fury and threats now, the more likely a deal.

I’m not changing my position.

I can’t work out if this is a bit of panto or a serious threat/risk to the talks.

I suspect it’s a bit of both.

For spectators the ‘is this real or is this panto?’ question is key, but frustratingly impossible to discern. You have to assume it’s real, just in case it is.

Roger

Alanbrooke said:

Bavarian election

after the final count CSU did slightly better than first forecasts as 37.2% Greens and Afd slightly worse 17.9% and 10.2%. FDP vote scraped over 5% at 5.1% and the SPD had a disaster losing over 50% of their vote 20.6% in 2013 to 9,7% in 2018.

The germans are now trying to work out what this all means nationally.

I heard that this was considered a victory for Merkel?

edmundintokyo

OT CNN Dem presidential nom poll:

Biden 33%
Sanders 13%
Harris 9%
Warren 8%
Booker 5%
Kerry 5%
Bloomberg 4%
O’Rourke 4%
Holder 3%
Garcetti 2%
Avenatti 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Patrick 1%
Bullock <1%
Delaney <1%

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/14/politics/cnn-poll-trump-biden-bernie-sanders-2020/index.html

Biden is top but a lot of that's probably just name recognition. Sanders is second, but I think the striking thing is how weak he is; He got 43% in the actual primary last time, and he should also have reasonably strong name recognition from last time, and he isn't sharing the left with anyone except maybe Warren, but he's still only getting 13%.

PClipp

So far the comments have centred on Brexit. The other part of Keiran`s comments was the trashing of the Conservative brand.

The problem is that the party is completely divided. The pragmatism of which they used to boast has disappeared without trace. None of their leaders has a clue what they ought to do in the best interests of the country. In fact, the whole lot of them are completely out of their depth.

The only exceptions are those who are still fighting to remain, but they do not rank among the current leaders of the Conservative Party. The sooner it formally breaks up, the better for our politics and our economy.

TheJezziah

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

If we did get no deal, it would depend where blame was seen to lie. It could be seen as Conservative incompetence, or the UK defying the hostile demands of a foreign power. (Of course, it'd likely be seen as both, with diehard supporters either side lining up for/against the blues and the floating voter determining which side is in the majority).

Possibly riskier for the Tories. Even if for example there is a perfect 50-50 split on blame then those who blame the Tories for any negatives would be more likely to have their vote affected by it than those who blame Europe. Also those who spread the blame between the EU and Conservatives would only (in a GE) be able to vote against (or withhold support from) one of those 2.

Alanbrooke

Roger said:

Alanbrooke said:

Bavarian election

after the final count CSU did slightly better than first forecasts as 37.2% Greens and Afd slightly worse 17.9% and 10.2%. FDP vote scraped over 5% at 5.1% and the SPD had a disaster losing over 50% of their vote 20.6% in 2013 to 9,7% in 2018.

The germans are now trying to work out what this all means nationally.

I heard that this was considered a victory for Merkel?

was it said by Mr Merkel ?

german press is now speculating how much longer she has got.

archer101au

logical_song said:

rcs1000 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I had taken the opposite view for a long time but I have closed to zero my position on Britain leaving the EU on time. I’m not rushing to reverse my position because I still expect a deal to be done. The chances of no deal now look substantial, however, and if no deal is done either a reversal of Brexit or some additional time to tidy up the multitude of low level agreements required becomes possible:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/07/08/the-fly-in-the-ointment-how-brexit-may-be-delayed-by-no-deal/

Interestingly, I'm taking the opposite view. The more sound and fury and threats now, the more likely a deal.

If a deal is to be done doesn't that mean either:

a) the DUP backtracking - not something they are known for.
Or
b) the EU accepting a time limited backstop - which I can't see happening.

.. and that's forgetting about the ERG, Boris, other Tory factions and the Labour party.

Yes. Everyone talks about how things will just get fudged in the end; surely this weekend was another example of how you just can't spread fudge over legal and constitutional arrangements.

In regards to the OP, what would make sense is that the UK agrees with the EU that there is not going to be an agreement on the backstop and suggests a six month delay in Brexit so everyone can get organised. It would make sense and I think leavers will accept a delay if the point is to prepare, rather than just hold more negotiations that will not get anywhere.

Can't see the EU accepting however.

archer101au

Freggles said:

logical_song said:

rcs1000 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I had taken the opposite view for a long time but I have closed to zero my position on Britain leaving the EU on time. I’m not rushing to reverse my position because I still expect a deal to be done. The chances of no deal now look substantial, however, and if no deal is done either a reversal of Brexit or some additional time to tidy up the multitude of low level agreements required becomes possible:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/07/08/the-fly-in-the-ointment-how-brexit-may-be-delayed-by-no-deal/

Interestingly, I'm taking the opposite view. The more sound and fury and threats now, the more likely a deal.

If a deal is to be done doesn't that mean either:

a) the DUP backtracking - not something they are known for.
Or
b) the EU accepting a time limited backstop - which I can't see happening.

.. and that's forgetting about the ERG, Boris, other Tory factions and the Labour party.

or DUP vote against but ten Labour MPs vote for the May deal.

What about the ERG and Lab MPs who will vote against the deal....If the DUP are against that will harden the ERG vote. 40 ERG. May is going to need close to 45 Labour MPs to get her deal. Way too many.

rkrkrk

MikeSmithson said:

These are the Betfair terms for the market

Will the United Kingdom officially leave the European Union before the 29/03/2019 - 23:59:59? For the purposes of this market leaving the EU is defined as the date when the treaties of the EU cease to apply to the UK. Examples of when this might occur include, but are not limited, to: the date specified in a withdrawal agreement between the UK and the EU; the end of the two year negotiating period (29/03/2019) as set out by Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty (or any extension to this time period); or the date of the repeal of the 1972 European Communities Act. If more than one of these events were to occur, this market will be settled on the first of these events to occur. In the case of the two year time period in Article 50 being extended, via a unanimous vote by all EU Member States, we will settle this market on the extended date. This market will settle when the UK leaves the EU even if parts of the UK (e.g. Scotland, Northern Ireland) leave the UK or receive special status within the EU. In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.

Thanks for posting this. Yes, I think this is quite a broad definition of Leave.
An A50 extension (or I suppose revocation - which seems very unlikely) seems to be the only way to fail the bet.

AmpfieldAndy

Staying in the EU is not an option - it means continued freedom of movement, continued contributions to the EU budget this time without the rebate, continued oversight by the ECJ, certain loss of all opt outs as we continue on path to ever closer Union, and having to join the Euro sooner rather than later. I doubt anyone other than hard core Remainers want that. Tory voters don't want it now and Labour voters won’t want it as it means McDonnells asinine spending and renationalisation plans won’t happen.

The problem for the Tories is how they play the blame game. They have no domestic policy agenda to fall back on because they have ignored that and all the other U.K. parties will be blaming them as well as the EU. They only way they get out of the political fall out is by ditching May something they have threatened many times but always been too scared of.

Foxy

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I had taken the opposite view for a long time but I have closed to zero my position on Britain leaving the EU on time. I’m not rushing to reverse my position because I still expect a deal to be done. The chances of no deal now look substantial, however, and if no deal is done either a reversal of Brexit or some additional time to tidy up the multitude of low level agreements required becomes possible:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/07/08/the-fly-in-the-ointment-how-brexit-may-be-delayed-by-no-deal/

Interestingly, I'm taking the opposite view. The more sound and fury and threats now, the more likely a deal.

I’m not changing my position.

I can’t work out if this is a bit of panto or a serious threat/risk to the talks.

I suspect it’s a bit of both.

For spectators the ‘is this real or is this panto?’ question is key, but frustratingly impossible to discern. You have to assume it’s real, just in case it is.

It's real.

There is neither the ability or reason for either side to run a panto.

timmo

For once I agree with OGH and have also played the market both with Betfair and with PP who have a no withdrawal agreement market by 30/3/19 up and can be backed at 6/4.
TM is now toast and I have been a huge backer of hers.
You can't continue to be all things to all people..something has to give and I believe it will be Brexit.

archer101au

TheJezziah said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

If we did get no deal, it would depend where blame was seen to lie. It could be seen as Conservative incompetence, or the UK defying the hostile demands of a foreign power. (Of course, it'd likely be seen as both, with diehard supporters either side lining up for/against the blues and the floating voter determining which side is in the majority).

Possibly riskier for the Tories. Even if for example there is a perfect 50-50 split on blame then those who blame the Tories for any negatives would be more likely to have their vote affected by it than those who blame Europe. Also those who spread the blame between the EU and Conservatives would only (in a GE) be able to vote against (or withhold support from) one of those 2.

If talks collapse the majority of the UK public in my view will blame the EU. Firstly, very few people really like the EU, even if they vote Remain. Secondly, if the breakdown is over the backstop then frankly the EU are to blame, and it is easy to explain to the public that the UK could not agree to the division of the UK by a foreign power. This is a message that will play easily with the public.

It would help more if the UK withdraw first rather than it just falling apart in a mess because it would show the Govt 'stood up for Britain'. But May could carry 60% of the public feeling that she did not get a deal because there was no choice. Ironically her only real chance of political survival is if she opts for no deal.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1051729583287005184

Mortimer

hamiltonace said:

There is a further issue which has been underestimated. Once a deal is complete only then does business get its say. There is a high risk business says it is unworkable in certain areas. Will parliament push on regardless? It appears too little time being spent on regulations and too much on custom duties.

Eh? Business has been having its say for years already.

HYUFD

With No Deal having a -33% approval with ICM and Remain beating No Deal 55% to 45% with Yougov No Deal is of course unsustainable and more likely than not to reverse Brexit. The only question really then becomes when Brexit is reversed not if.

A Canada, Norway/EFTA or Customs Union option would all have been acceptable to enough voters, if diehard Brexiteers and the DUP force No Deal then by their stupidity the small 52% majority for Leave at the referendum will be lost

HYUFD

AndyJS said:

Latest CBS/YouGov forecast for the House:

Dem: 226
GOP: 209

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democratic-lead-continues-to-grow-in-race-for-house-cbs-news-poll-battleground-tracker/

Dems up 33 seats on 2016, GOP down 32

HYUFD

AmpfieldAndy said:

Staying in the EU is not an option - it means continued freedom of movement, continued contributions to the EU budget this time without the rebate, continued oversight by the ECJ, certain loss of all opt outs as we continue on path to ever closer Union, and having to join the Euro sooner rather than later. I doubt anyone other than hard core Remainers want that. Tory voters don't want it now and Labour voters won’t want it as it means McDonnells asinine spending and renationalisation plans won’t happen.

The problem for the Tories is how they play the blame game. They have no domestic policy agenda to fall back on because they have ignored that and all the other U.K. parties will be blaming them as well as the EU. They only way they get out of the political fall out is by ditching May something they have threatened many times but always been too scared of.

I am sorry but it very much is an option if you persist with No Deal. Provided a referendum reverses Brexit before next March we would stay outside Schengen and outside the Euro. Eastern European migration has seen a net fall since the Brexit vote and of course we could have had transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 in the EU anyway but Blair refused to take them

Roger

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

Alanbrooke said:

Bavarian election

after the final count CSU did slightly better than first forecasts as 37.2% Greens and Afd slightly worse 17.9% and 10.2%. FDP vote scraped over 5% at 5.1% and the SPD had a disaster losing over 50% of their vote 20.6% in 2013 to 9,7% in 2018.

The germans are now trying to work out what this all means nationally.

I heard that this was considered a victory for Merkel?

was it said by Mr Merkel ?

german press is now speculating how much longer she has got.

Apparently her oppo in the Bavarian election decided to make it about immigration. (He being against Mrs M's lax policy). The result being that those in favour went Green those against went Afd. Result Mrs M strengthens her grip on her fractured party. An over simplification but about right. No?

Foxy

AmpfieldAndy said:

Staying in the EU is not an option - it means continued freedom of movement, continued contributions to the EU budget this time without the rebate, continued oversight by the ECJ, certain loss of all opt outs as we continue on path to ever closer Union, and having to join the Euro sooner rather than later. I doubt anyone other than hard core Remainers want that. Tory voters don't want it now and Labour voters won’t want it as it means McDonnells asinine spending and renationalisation plans won’t happen.

The problem for the Tories is how they play the blame game. They have no domestic policy agenda to fall back on because they have ignored that and all the other U.K. parties will be blaming them as well as the EU. They only way they get out of the political fall out is by ditching May something they have threatened many times but always been too scared of.

Staying in the EU is always possible. The leaders across the water have consistently said so, but the decision is ours.

The fallout from No Deal in the tabloids will be to blame the EU of course, but the general voting public will blame the government too. An Irish Sea customs border bothers virtually no one on the mainland.

Pulpstar

Alanbrooke said:

Bavarian election

after the final count CSU did slightly better than first forecasts as 37.2% Greens and Afd slightly worse 17.9% and 10.2%. FDP vote scraped over 5% at 5.1% and the SPD had a disaster losing over 50% of their vote 20.6% in 2013 to 9,7% in 2018.

The germans are now trying to work out what this all means nationally.

The SPD looks to be going the way of the main left parties in France and Greece. At least the CSU is still ahead.
Brilliant result for the greens

HYUFD

edmundintokyo said:

OT CNN Dem presidential nom poll:

Biden 33%
Sanders 13%
Harris 9%
Warren 8%
Booker 5%
Kerry 5%
Bloomberg 4%
O’Rourke 4%
Holder 3%
Garcetti 2%
Avenatti 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Patrick 1%
Bullock <1%
Delaney <1%

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/14/politics/cnn-poll-trump-biden-bernie-sanders-2020/index.html

Biden is top but a lot of that's probably just name recognition. Sanders is second, but I think the striking thing is how weak he is; He got 43% in the actual primary last time, and he should also have reasonably strong name recognition from last time, and he isn't sharing the left with anyone except maybe Warren, but he's still only getting 13%.</p>

Harris is pretty left too

Foxy

HYUFD said:

AndyJS said:

Latest CBS/YouGov forecast for the House:

Dem: 226
GOP: 209

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democratic-lead-continues-to-grow-in-race-for-house-cbs-news-poll-battleground-tracker/

Dems up 33 seats on 2016, GOP down 32

Are there any band betting markets up for the House?

Morris_Dancer

Is there value in a Remain vote in a 2019 referendum?

It's 11 on Ladbrokes. Another referendum before the end of 2019 is 4.

F1: I mentioned this yesterday but the odds are the same. Force India are 1.57 to beat McLaren in the Constructors. Currently, it's 43 for Force India and 58 for McLaren. But since the former lost their points due to takeover, they've scored (over five races, four more remain) 43 points to McLaren's 6.

Even if you remove the unusually good Spa result, that's 25 versus 6. Right now McLaren look perhaps the slowest of all, only Williams rivalling them for that dubious honour.

Don't normally go for short bets, but it's tempting.

Nigel_Foremain

TheJezziah said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

If we did get no deal, it would depend where blame was seen to lie. It could be seen as Conservative incompetence, or the UK defying the hostile demands of a foreign power. (Of course, it'd likely be seen as both, with diehard supporters either side lining up for/against the blues and the floating voter determining which side is in the majority).

Possibly riskier for the Tories. Even if for example there is a perfect 50-50 split on blame then those who blame the Tories for any negatives would be more likely to have their vote affected by it than those who blame Europe. Also those who spread the blame between the EU and Conservatives would only (in a GE) be able to vote against (or withhold support from) one of those 2.

Even though I am a Tory, I will blame the Tories. Sadly there is not a credible opposition leader. However stupid the Tories have been over Brexit, and however I hate Johnson, Davis and the disgraced GP, I will not vote for a party with an intellectually lightweight, anti-Semite, quasi-Communist for its leader.

If Labour changed to someone more credible then I would lend them my vote. The state of British politics at the moment is shocking. We make Italy look like a paragon of democratic virtue and stability

saddo

Foxy said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Staying in the EU is not an option - it means continued freedom of movement, continued contributions to the EU budget this time without the rebate, continued oversight by the ECJ, certain loss of all opt outs as we continue on path to ever closer Union, and having to join the Euro sooner rather than later. I doubt anyone other than hard core Remainers want that. Tory voters don't want it now and Labour voters won’t want it as it means McDonnells asinine spending and renationalisation plans won’t happen.

The problem for the Tories is how they play the blame game. They have no domestic policy agenda to fall back on because they have ignored that and all the other U.K. parties will be blaming them as well as the EU. They only way they get out of the political fall out is by ditching May something they have threatened many times but always been too scared of.

Staying in the EU is always possible. The leaders across the water have consistently said so, but the decision is ours.

The fallout from No Deal in the tabloids will be to blame the EU of course, but the general voting public will blame the government too. An Irish Sea customs border bothers virtually no one on the mainland.

The price the EU mafia will extract for the reverse ferret will be vast, starting with the ending of any rebates & significant increases in UK budget contributions.

Alanbrooke

Roger said:

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

Alanbrooke said:

Bavarian election

after the final count CSU did slightly better than first forecasts as 37.2% Greens and Afd slightly worse 17.9% and 10.2%. FDP vote scraped over 5% at 5.1% and the SPD had a disaster losing over 50% of their vote 20.6% in 2013 to 9,7% in 2018.

The germans are now trying to work out what this all means nationally.

I heard that this was considered a victory for Merkel?

was it said by Mr Merkel ?

german press is now speculating how much longer she has got.

Apparently her oppo in the Bavarian election decided to make it about immigration. (He being against Mrs M's lax policy). The result being that those in favour went Green those against went Afd. Result Mrs M strengthens her grip on her fractured party. An over simplification but about right. No?

Mrs Ms 3 party coalition has 2 junior partners who hate each other. Both of them are getting squeezed to death by staying in coalition with Mrs M, so the question is how much longer will they put up with it, It is inconceivable that Mrs M will stand for Chancellor again, she has 3 years left on her mandate and the CDU need a leader before the next GE.

meanwhile the political climate is changing all around her. The old party loyalties are getting destroyed and the electorate is increasingly up for grabs. The Greens are killing the SPD right across Germany and the AfD is beginning to overtake the CDU in the East.

Alanbrooke

Foxy said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Staying in the EU is not an option - it means continued freedom of movement, continued contributions to the EU budget this time without the rebate, continued oversight by the ECJ, certain loss of all opt outs as we continue on path to ever closer Union, and having to join the Euro sooner rather than later. I doubt anyone other than hard core Remainers want that. Tory voters don't want it now and Labour voters won’t want it as it means McDonnells asinine spending and renationalisation plans won’t happen.

The problem for the Tories is how they play the blame game. They have no domestic policy agenda to fall back on because they have ignored that and all the other U.K. parties will be blaming them as well as the EU. They only way they get out of the political fall out is by ditching May something they have threatened many times but always been too scared of.

Staying in the EU is always possible. The leaders across the water have consistently said so, but the decision is ours.

The fallout from No Deal in the tabloids will be to blame the EU of course, but the general voting public will blame the government too. An Irish Sea customs border bothers virtually no one on the mainland.

irs possible of course, but they havent yet named their price

AmpfieldAndy

Foxy said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Staying in the EU is not an option - it means continued freedom of movement, continued contributions to the EU budget this time without the rebate, continued oversight by the ECJ, certain loss of all opt outs as we continue on path to ever closer Union, and having to join the Euro sooner rather than later. I doubt anyone other than hard core Remainers want that. Tory voters don't want it now and Labour voters won’t want it as it means McDonnells asinine spending and renationalisation plans won’t happen.

The problem for the Tories is how they play the blame game. They have no domestic policy agenda to fall back on because they have ignored that and all the other U.K. parties will be blaming them as well as the EU. They only way they get out of the political fall out is by ditching May something they have threatened many times but always been too scared of.

Staying in the EU is always possible. The leaders across the water have consistently said so, but the decision is ours.

The fallout from No Deal in the tabloids will be to blame the EU of course, but the general voting public will blame the government too. An Irish Sea customs border bothers virtually no one on the mainland.

I don’t think many politicians want to try and sell loss of the remaining rebate, loss of the opt outs, membership of the euro and continued freedom of movement to the electorate and those who do will be out of a job fairly soon unless they stand in a metropolitan constituency.

Nigel_Foremain

archer101au said:

TheJezziah said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

If we did get no deal, it would depend where blame was seen to lie. It could be seen as Conservative incompetence, or the UK defying the hostile demands of a foreign power. (Of course, it'd likely be seen as both, with diehard supporters either side lining up for/against the blues and the floating voter determining which side is in the majority).

Possibly riskier for the Tories. Even if for example there is a perfect 50-50 split on blame then those who blame the Tories for any negatives would be more likely to have their vote affected by it than those who blame Europe. Also those who spread the blame between the EU and Conservatives would only (in a GE) be able to vote against (or withhold support from) one of those 2.

If talks collapse the majority of the UK public in my view will blame the EU. Firstly, very few people really like the EU, even if they vote Remain. Secondly, if the breakdown is over the backstop then frankly the EU are to blame, and it is easy to explain to the public that the UK could not agree to the division of the UK by a foreign power. This is a message that will play easily with the public.

It would help more if the UK withdraw first rather than it just falling apart in a mess because it would show the Govt 'stood up for Britain'. But May could carry 60% of the public feeling that she did not get a deal because there was no choice. Ironically her only real chance of political survival is if she opts for no deal.

Not everyone is as prejudiced as you about "Johnny Foreigner". Opinion leaders will note that it was our politicians who caused this mess and a majority of the rest will follow. The "hatred of the furriner" card worked in the referendum, it probably isn't sustainable, however much you would like it to be so.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Jezziah, that may well be true.

I'd add that gratitude in politics is a lot weaker as a motivating factor than fear or hatred.

Which does raise the question of whether the Dark Side runs our political system...

Foxy

saddo said:

Foxy said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Staying in the EU is not an option - it means continued freedom of movement, continued contributions to the EU budget this time without the rebate, continued oversight by the ECJ, certain loss of all opt outs as we continue on path to ever closer Union, and having to join the Euro sooner rather than later. I doubt anyone other than hard core Remainers want that. Tory voters don't want it now and Labour voters won’t want it as it means McDonnells asinine spending and renationalisation plans won’t happen.

The problem for the Tories is how they play the blame game. They have no domestic policy agenda to fall back on because they have ignored that and all the other U.K. parties will be blaming them as well as the EU. They only way they get out of the political fall out is by ditching May something they have threatened many times but always been too scared of.

Staying in the EU is always possible. The leaders across the water have consistently said so, but the decision is ours.

The fallout from No Deal in the tabloids will be to blame the EU of course, but the general voting public will blame the government too. An Irish Sea customs border bothers virtually no one on the mainland.

The price the EU mafia will extract for the reverse ferret will be vast, starting with the ending of any rebates & significant increases in UK budget contributions.

Yes, and at that point Britons will realise what a great deal we had with all our existing opt outs.

You don't know what you've got till its gone.

Alanbrooke

Pulpstar said:

Alanbrooke said:

Bavarian election

after the final count CSU did slightly better than first forecasts as 37.2% Greens and Afd slightly worse 17.9% and 10.2%. FDP vote scraped over 5% at 5.1% and the SPD had a disaster losing over 50% of their vote 20.6% in 2013 to 9,7% in 2018.

The germans are now trying to work out what this all means nationally.

The SPD looks to be going the way of the main left parties in France and Greece. At least the CSU is still ahead.
Brilliant result for the greens

yes, I was surprised when I recently looked at how the Socialists were doing in France. One of the strongest socialist parties in Europe is now irrelevant.

HYUFD

Nigel_Foremain said:

TheJezziah said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

If we did get no deal, it would depend where blame was seen to lie. It could be seen as Conservative incompetence, or the UK defying the hostile demands of a foreign power. (Of course, it'd likely be seen as both, with diehard supporters either side lining up for/against the blues and the floating voter determining which side is in the majority).

Possibly riskier for the Tories. Even if for example there is a perfect 50-50 split on blame then those who blame the Tories for any negatives would be more likely to have their vote affected by it than those who blame Europe. Also those who spread the blame between the EU and Conservatives would only (in a GE) be able to vote against (or withhold support from) one of those 2.

Even though I am a Tory, I will blame the Tories. Sadly there is not a credible opposition leader. However stupid the Tories have been over Brexit, and however I hate Johnson, Davis and the disgraced GP, I will not vote for a party with an intellectually lightweight, anti-Semite, quasi-Communist for its leader.

If Labour changed to someone more credible then I would lend them my vote. The state of British politics at the moment is shocking. We make Italy look like a paragon of democratic virtue and stability

I think the end result could be Tories largest party but Corbyn PM thanks to SNP confidence and supply and LD support bill by bill and the whole UK stays in the Customs Union and the Single Market which the SNP and LDs will make a condition of their support to keep Labour in power

not_on_fire

Mortimer said:

hamiltonace said:

There is a further issue which has been underestimated. Once a deal is complete only then does business get its say. There is a high risk business says it is unworkable in certain areas. Will parliament push on regardless? It appears too little time being spent on regulations and too much on custom duties.

Eh? Business has been having its say for years already.

And has been completely ignored - the vast majority don’t want the Brexiteers’ buccaneering trade deals, they just want to stick with what we had - preferably Remaining, or at least in the SM/CU.

not_on_fire

saddo said:

Foxy said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Staying in the EU is not an option - it means continued freedom of movement, continued contributions to the EU budget this time without the rebate, continued oversight by the ECJ, certain loss of all opt outs as we continue on path to ever closer Union, and having to join the Euro sooner rather than later. I doubt anyone other than hard core Remainers want that. Tory voters don't want it now and Labour voters won’t want it as it means McDonnells asinine spending and renationalisation plans won’t happen.

The problem for the Tories is how they play the blame game. They have no domestic policy agenda to fall back on because they have ignored that and all the other U.K. parties will be blaming them as well as the EU. They only way they get out of the political fall out is by ditching May something they have threatened many times but always been too scared of.

Staying in the EU is always possible. The leaders across the water have consistently said so, but the decision is ours.

The fallout from No Deal in the tabloids will be to blame the EU of course, but the general voting public will blame the government too. An Irish Sea customs border bothers virtually no one on the mainland.

The price the EU mafia will extract for the reverse ferret will be vast, starting with the ending of any rebates & significant increases in UK budget contributions.

Well yes, we will pay a heavy price for the Brexiteers’ lies and incompetence.

AmpfieldAndy

HYUFD said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Staying in the EU is not an option - it means continued freedom of movement, continued contributions to the EU budget this time without the rebate, continued oversight by the ECJ, certain loss of all opt outs as we continue on path to ever closer Union, and having to join the Euro sooner rather than later. I doubt anyone other than hard core Remainers want that. Tory voters don't want it now and Labour voters won’t want it as it means McDonnells asinine spending and renationalisation plans won’t happen.

The problem for the Tories is how they play the blame game. They have no domestic policy agenda to fall back on because they have ignored that and all the other U.K. parties will be blaming them as well as the EU. They only way they get out of the political fall out is by ditching May something they have threatened many times but always been too scared of.

I am sorry but it very much is an option if you persist with No Deal. Provided a referendum reverses Brexit before next March we would stay outside Schengen and outside the Euro. Eastern European migration has seen a net fall since the Brexit vote and of course we could have had transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 in the EU anyway but Blair refused to take them

The terms on which we stayed in would have to be negotiated and that would be against a background of negotiation having failed. Good luck trying to sell that to the electorate.

HYUFD

Alanbrooke said:

Pulpstar said:

Alanbrooke said:

Bavarian election

after the final count CSU did slightly better than first forecasts as 37.2% Greens and Afd slightly worse 17.9% and 10.2%. FDP vote scraped over 5% at 5.1% and the SPD had a disaster losing over 50% of their vote 20.6% in 2013 to 9,7% in 2018.

The germans are now trying to work out what this all means nationally.

The SPD looks to be going the way of the main left parties in France and Greece. At least the CSU is still ahead.
Brilliant result for the greens

yes, I was surprised when I recently looked at how the Socialists were doing in France. One of the strongest socialist parties in Europe is now irrelevant.

Melenchon's left party is now ahead of the Socialists in France

RochdalePioneers

archer101au said:

If talks collapse the majority of the UK public in my view will blame the EU. .

You've asked them have you? I'm guessing almost everyone on here has spoken to more members of the UK public recently than you have.

FF43

hamiltonace said:

There is a further issue which has been underestimated. Once a deal is complete only then does business get its say. There is a high risk business says it is unworkable in certain areas. Will parliament push on regardless? It appears too little time being spent on regulations and too much on custom duties.

This deal isn't the end state. It's about getting to transition in one piece. The end state will be negotiated after Brexit, possibly over a period of ten years. On the current deal, the end state must contain the NI backstop. It can contain a full customs union at the UK's option. The current deal doesn't offer business anything beyond a two, or maybe three year, extension on current terms and the prospect of a customs union after that.

HYUFD

AmpfieldAndy said:

HYUFD said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Staying in the EU is not an option - it means continued freedom of movement, continued contributions to the EU budget this time without the rebate, continued oversight by the ECJ, certain loss of all opt outs as we continue on path to ever closer Union, and having to join the Euro sooner rather than later. I doubt anyone other than hard core Remainers want that. Tory voters don't want it now and Labour voters won’t want it as it means McDonnells asinine spending and renationalisation plans won’t happen.

The problem for the Tories is how they play the blame game. They have no domestic policy agenda to fall back on because they have ignored that and all the other U.K. parties will be blaming them as well as the EU. They only way they get out of the political fall out is by ditching May something they have threatened many times but always been too scared of.

I am sorry but it very much is an option if you persist with No Deal. Provided a referendum reverses Brexit before next March we would stay outside Schengen and outside the Euro. Eastern European migration has seen a net fall since the Brexit vote and of course we could have had transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 in the EU anyway but Blair refused to take them

The terms on which we stayed in would have to be negotiated and that would be against a background of negotiation having failed. Good luck trying to sell that to the electorate.

Not if there was a Remain vote before March 2019 as Brexit would be cancelled and we would not actually Leave.

It is No Deal that cannot be sold to the electorate, No Deal is the only way we Remain

Alanbrooke

Foxy said:

saddo said:

Foxy said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Staying in the EU is not an option - it means continued freedom of movement, continued contributions to the EU budget this time without the rebate, continued oversight by the ECJ, certain loss of all opt outs as we continue on path to ever closer Union, and having to join the Euro sooner rather than later. I doubt anyone other than hard core Remainers want that. Tory voters don't want it now and Labour voters won’t want it as it means McDonnells asinine spending and renationalisation plans won’t happen.

The problem for the Tories is how they play the blame game. They have no domestic policy agenda to fall back on because they have ignored that and all the other U.K. parties will be blaming them as well as the EU. They only way they get out of the political fall out is by ditching May something they have threatened many times but always been too scared of.

Staying in the EU is always possible. The leaders across the water have consistently said so, but the decision is ours.

The fallout from No Deal in the tabloids will be to blame the EU of course, but the general voting public will blame the government too. An Irish Sea customs border bothers virtually no one on the mainland.

The price the EU mafia will extract for the reverse ferret will be vast, starting with the ending of any rebates & significant increases in UK budget contributions.

Yes, and at that point Britons will realise what a great deal we had with all our existing opt outs.

You don't know what you've got till its gone.

I rather doubt that. How does pay billions a year and we wont force you to become part of Germanys currency cartel translate as an advantage ?

Nigel_Foremain

Foxy said:

saddo said:

Foxy said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Staying in the EU is not an option - it means continued freedom of movement, continued contributions to the EU budget this time without the rebate, continued oversight by the ECJ, certain loss of all opt outs as we continue on path to ever closer Union, and having to join the Euro sooner rather than later. I doubt anyone other than hard core Remainers want that. Tory voters don't want it now and Labour voters won’t want it as it means McDonnells asinine spending and renationalisation plans won’t happen.

The problem for the Tories is how they play the blame game. They have no domestic policy agenda to fall back on because they have ignored that and all the other U.K. parties will be blaming them as well as the EU. They only way they get out of the political fall out is by ditching May something they have threatened many times but always been too scared of.

Staying in the EU is always possible. The leaders across the water have consistently said so, but the decision is ours.

The fallout from No Deal in the tabloids will be to blame the EU of course, but the general voting public will blame the government too. An Irish Sea customs border bothers virtually no one on the mainland.

The price the EU mafia will extract for the reverse ferret will be vast, starting with the ending of any rebates & significant increases in UK budget contributions.

Yes, and at that point Britons will realise what a great deal we had with all our existing opt outs.

You don't know what you've got till its gone.

Indeed Mr Foxy. We had the best deal in Europe by a long way. Mr Saddo does indeed have a most appropriate epithet. When I see someone put something as thick as "the EU mafia" I just think "how silly, what a saddo!"

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Fire, you realise that the Remain side also took part in the referendum campaign? And that, currently, we have a government led by someone on that Remain side?

It might be comforting to blame the heretics, but that doesn't make it true.

RochdalePioneers

PClipp said:

So far the comments have centred on Brexit. The other part of Keiran`s comments was the trashing of the Conservative brand.

The problem is that the party is completely divided. The pragmatism of which they used to boast has disappeared without trace. None of their leaders has a clue what they ought to do in the best interests of the country. In fact, the whole lot of them are completely out of their depth.

The only exceptions are those who are still fighting to remain, but they do not rank among the current leaders of the Conservative Party. The sooner it formally breaks up, the better for our politics and our economy.

"Ah but we still have a poll lead" say PB Tories. True - the battle for Brexit is still on. And what happens to that lead afterwards when significant numbers of Tory voters are at best disappointed and at worst outraged with the Brexit settlement/non-settlement? How will the party be able to move on and start developing policies for everything that isn't Brexit when it will continue to be so bitterly riven?

It's not as if its in a great place outside of Brexit either - "I'm going to take money off poor people" says McVile, "Whats a train" says Chris Failing etc etc. And John Major thought he had it bad...

Alanbrooke

HYUFD said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

HYUFD said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Staying in the EU is not an option - it means continued freedom of movement, continued contributions to the EU budget this time without the rebate, continued oversight by the ECJ, certain loss of all opt outs as we continue on path to ever closer Union, and having to join the Euro sooner rather than later. I doubt anyone other than hard core Remainers want that. Tory voters don't want it now and Labour voters won’t want it as it means McDonnells asinine spending and renationalisation plans won’t happen.

The problem for the Tories is how they play the blame game. They have no domestic policy agenda to fall back on because they have ignored that and all the other U.K. parties will be blaming them as well as the EU. They only way they get out of the political fall out is by ditching May something they have threatened many times but always been too scared of.

I am sorry but it very much is an option if you persist with No Deal. Provided a referendum reverses Brexit before next March we would stay outside Schengen and outside the Euro. Eastern European migration has seen a net fall since the Brexit vote and of course we could have had transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 in the EU anyway but Blair refused to take them

The terms on which we stayed in would have to be negotiated and that would be against a background of negotiation having failed. Good luck trying to sell that to the electorate.

Not if there was a Remain vote before March 2019 as Brexit would be cancelled and we would not actually Leave.

It is No Deal that cannot be sold to the electorate, No Deal is the only way we Remain

I see little appetite for another referendum amongst the electorate.

FF43

rcs1000 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I had taken the opposite view for a long time but I have closed to zero my position on Britain leaving the EU on time. I’m not rushing to reverse my position because I still expect a deal to be done. The chances of no deal now look substantial, however, and if no deal is done either a reversal of Brexit or some additional time to tidy up the multitude of low level agreements required becomes possible:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/07/08/the-fly-in-the-ointment-how-brexit-may-be-delayed-by-no-deal/

Interestingly, I'm taking the opposite view. The more sound and fury and threats now, the more likely a deal.

It looks like the negotiation has run its course and is essentially at take it or leave it. No-one knows what to do if we leave it, so I'm guessing once the situation has sunk into people's minds we will take it. There could however be delay and significant chaos before we do so.

Foxy

Alanbrooke said:

Pulpstar said:

Alanbrooke said:

Bavarian election

after the final count CSU did slightly better than first forecasts as 37.2% Greens and Afd slightly worse 17.9% and 10.2%. FDP vote scraped over 5% at 5.1% and the SPD had a disaster losing over 50% of their vote 20.6% in 2013 to 9,7% in 2018.

The germans are now trying to work out what this all means nationally.

The SPD looks to be going the way of the main left parties in France and Greece. At least the CSU is still ahead.
Brilliant result for the greens

yes, I was surprised when I recently looked at how the Socialists were doing in France. One of the strongest socialist parties in Europe is now irrelevant.

It is FPTP that fossilises our parties. The same would happen here if we had PR. From Brasilia to Berlin politics is polarizing, and the sane centrists disappearing.

When the next recession comes that is going to be a very toxic political environment.

Alanbrooke

FF43 said:

rcs1000 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I had taken the opposite view for a long time but I have closed to zero my position on Britain leaving the EU on time. I’m not rushing to reverse my position because I still expect a deal to be done. The chances of no deal now look substantial, however, and if no deal is done either a reversal of Brexit or some additional time to tidy up the multitude of low level agreements required becomes possible:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/07/08/the-fly-in-the-ointment-how-brexit-may-be-delayed-by-no-deal/

Interestingly, I'm taking the opposite view. The more sound and fury and threats now, the more likely a deal.

It looks like the negotiation has run its course and is essentially at take it or leave it. No-one knows what to do if we leave it, so I'm guessing once the situation has sunk into people's minds we will take it. There could however be delay and significant chaos before we do so.

Every deal needs it crisis point. Its in the nature of things.

not_on_fire

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Fire, you realise that the Remain side also took part in the referendum campaign? And that, currently, we have a government led by someone on that Remain side?

It might be comforting to blame the heretics, but that doesn't make it true.

I don’t see the relevance. It’s easy to win a referendum when you promise everything will be better with no downside, and don’t bother to look into any of the detail.

Nigel_Foremain

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Fire, you realise that the Remain side also took part in the referendum campaign? And that, currently, we have a government led by someone on that Remain side?

It might be comforting to blame the heretics, but that doesn't make it true.

Yes, but the logic of Mr. Fire's statement is very sound. There were many lies by Leave (whether you argue that there were by Remain is immaterial as they didn't win). I don't think any sensible observer does not think there will be a heavy economic price (this was another lie from Leave), and there has been extreme incompetence from Davis, Fox and Johnson, all of whom told us it would be easy (which they all knew was a lie).

Alanbrooke

not_on_fire said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Fire, you realise that the Remain side also took part in the referendum campaign? And that, currently, we have a government led by someone on that Remain side?

It might be comforting to blame the heretics, but that doesn't make it true.

I don’t see the relevance. It’s easy to win a referendum when you promise everything will be better with no downside, and don’t bother to look into any of the detail.

that was the Remain strategy.

it didnt work.

Nigel_Foremain

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

TheJezziah said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

If we did get no deal, it would depend where blame was seen to lie. It could be seen as Conservative incompetence, or the UK defying the hostile demands of a foreign power. (Of course, it'd likely be seen as both, with diehard supporters either side lining up for/against the blues and the floating voter determining which side is in the majority).

Possibly riskier for the Tories. Even if for example there is a perfect 50-50 split on blame then those who blame the Tories for any negatives would be more likely to have their vote affected by it than those who blame Europe. Also those who spread the blame between the EU and Conservatives would only (in a GE) be able to vote against (or withhold support from) one of those 2.

Even though I am a Tory, I will blame the Tories. Sadly there is not a credible opposition leader. However stupid the Tories have been over Brexit, and however I hate Johnson, Davis and the disgraced GP, I will not vote for a party with an intellectually lightweight, anti-Semite, quasi-Communist for its leader.

If Labour changed to someone more credible then I would lend them my vote. The state of British politics at the moment is shocking. We make Italy look like a paragon of democratic virtue and stability

I think the end result could be Tories largest party but Corbyn PM thanks to SNP confidence and supply and LD support bill by bill and the whole UK stays in the Customs Union and the Single Market which the SNP and LDs will make a condition of their support to keep Labour in power

Yes, but he may not get "confidence and supply" from his own MPs! (hopefully)

AmpfieldAndy

HYUFD said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

HYUFD said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Staying in the EU is not an option - it means continued freedom of movement, continued contributions to the EU budget this time without the rebate, continued oversight by the ECJ, certain loss of all opt outs as we continue on path to ever closer Union, and having to join the Euro sooner rather than later. I doubt anyone other than hard core Remainers want that. Tory voters don't want it now and Labour voters won’t want it as it means McDonnells asinine spending and renationalisation plans won’t happen.

The problem for the Tories is how they play the blame game. They have no domestic policy agenda to fall back on because they have ignored that and all the other U.K. parties will be blaming them as well as the EU. They only way they get out of the political fall out is by ditching May something they have threatened many times but always been too scared of.

I am sorry but it very much is an option if you persist with No Deal. Provided a referendum reverses Brexit before next March we would stay outside Schengen and outside the Euro. Eastern European migration has seen a net fall since the Brexit vote and of course we could have had transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 in the EU anyway but Blair refused to take them

The terms on which we stayed in would have to be negotiated and that would be against a background of negotiation having failed. Good luck trying to sell that to the electorate.

Not if there was a Remain vote before March 2019 as Brexit would be cancelled and we would not actually Leave.

It is No Deal that cannot be sold to the electorate, No Deal is the only way we Remain

Not according to the European Commission.

Foxy

Alanbrooke said:

Foxy said:

saddo said:

Foxy said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Staying in the EU is not an option - it means continued freedom of movement, continued contributions to the EU budget this time without the rebate, continued oversight by the ECJ, certain loss of all opt outs as we continue on path to ever closer Union, and having to join the Euro sooner rather than later. I doubt anyone other than hard core Remainers want that. Tory voters don't want it now and Labour voters won’t want it as it means McDonnells asinine spending and renationalisation plans won’t happen.

The problem for the Tories is how they play the blame game. They have no domestic policy agenda to fall back on because they have ignored that and all the other U.K. parties will be blaming them as well as the EU. They only way they get out of the political fall out is by ditching May something they have threatened many times but always been too scared of.

Staying in the EU is always possible. The leaders across the water have consistently said so, but the decision is ours.

The fallout from No Deal in the tabloids will be to blame the EU of course, but the general voting public will blame the government too. An Irish Sea customs border bothers virtually no one on the mainland.

The price the EU mafia will extract for the reverse ferret will be vast, starting with the ending of any rebates & significant increases in UK budget contributions.

Yes, and at that point Britons will realise what a great deal we had with all our existing opt outs.

You don't know what you've got till its gone.

I rather doubt that. How does pay billions a year and we wont force you to become part of Germanys currency cartel translate as an advantage ?

In a few years time these will be seen as the good old days.

Nigel_Foremain

Alanbrooke said:

FF43 said:

rcs1000 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I had taken the opposite view for a long time but I have closed to zero my position on Britain leaving the EU on time. I’m not rushing to reverse my position because I still expect a deal to be done. The chances of no deal now look substantial, however, and if no deal is done either a reversal of Brexit or some additional time to tidy up the multitude of low level agreements required becomes possible:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/07/08/the-fly-in-the-ointment-how-brexit-may-be-delayed-by-no-deal/

Interestingly, I'm taking the opposite view. The more sound and fury and threats now, the more likely a deal.

It looks like the negotiation has run its course and is essentially at take it or leave it. No-one knows what to do if we leave it, so I'm guessing once the situation has sunk into people's minds we will take it. There could however be delay and significant chaos before we do so.

Every deal needs it crisis point. Its in the nature of things.

That is always the view of the extremist. The pain will be worth the eventual utopia. It is the credo of the psychopathic

Alanbrooke

Foxy said:

Alanbrooke said:

Pulpstar said:

Alanbrooke said:

Bavarian election

after the final count CSU did slightly better than first forecasts as 37.2% Greens and Afd slightly worse 17.9% and 10.2%. FDP vote scraped over 5% at 5.1% and the SPD had a disaster losing over 50% of their vote 20.6% in 2013 to 9,7% in 2018.

The germans are now trying to work out what this all means nationally.

The SPD looks to be going the way of the main left parties in France and Greece. At least the CSU is still ahead.
Brilliant result for the greens

yes, I was surprised when I recently looked at how the Socialists were doing in France. One of the strongest socialist parties in Europe is now irrelevant.

It is FPTP that fossilises our parties. The same would happen here if we had PR. From Brasilia to Berlin politics is polarizing, and the sane centrists disappearing.

When the next recession comes that is going to be a very toxic political environment.

You could conversely argue that FPTP keeps the extremists out of UK politics. Your sane centre had a huge run of governmentfor the last 3 decades on its back. They are only out of office because they got smug

Casino_Royale

Nigel_Foremain said:

TheJezziah said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

If we did get no deal, it would depend where blame was seen to lie. It could be seen as Conservative incompetence, or the UK defying the hostile demands of a foreign power. (Of course, it'd likely be seen as both, with diehard supporters either side lining up for/against the blues and the floating voter determining which side is in the majority).

Possibly riskier for the Tories. Even if for example there is a perfect 50-50 split on blame then those who blame the Tories for any negatives would be more likely to have their vote affected by it than those who blame Europe. Also those who spread the blame between the EU and Conservatives would only (in a GE) be able to vote against (or withhold support from) one of those 2.

Even though I am a Tory, I will blame the Tories. Sadly there is not a credible opposition leader. However stupid the Tories have been over Brexit, and however I hate Johnson, Davis and the disgraced GP, I will not vote for a party with an intellectually lightweight, anti-Semite, quasi-Communist for its leader.

If Labour changed to someone more credible then I would lend them my vote. The state of British politics at the moment is shocking. We make Italy look like a paragon of democratic virtue and stability

I’m struggling to think of any posts you’ve contributed on here where you sound like a Tory.

Guess we’ll have to take your word for it.

Alanbrooke

Foxy said:

Alanbrooke said:

Foxy said:

saddo said:

Foxy said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Staying in the EU is not an option - it means continued freedom of movement, continued contributions to the EU budget this time without the rebate, continued oversight by the ECJ, certain loss of all opt outs as we continue on path to ever closer Union, and having to join the Euro sooner rather than later. I doubt anyone other than hard core Remainers want that. Tory voters don't want it now and Labour voters won’t want it as it means McDonnells asinine spending and renationalisation plans won’t happen.

The problem for the Tories is how they play the blame game. They have no domestic policy agenda to fall back on because they have ignored that and all the other U.K. parties will be blaming them as well as the EU. They only way they get out of the political fall out is by ditching May something they have threatened many times but always been too scared of.

Staying in the EU is always possible. The leaders across the water have consistently said so, but the decision is ours.

The fallout from No Deal in the tabloids will be to blame the EU of course, but the general voting public will blame the government too. An Irish Sea customs border bothers virtually no one on the mainland.

The price the EU mafia will extract for the reverse ferret will be vast, starting with the ending of any rebates & significant increases in UK budget contributions.

Yes, and at that point Britons will realise what a great deal we had with all our existing opt outs.

You don't know what you've got till its gone.

I rather doubt that. How does pay billions a year and we wont force you to become part of Germanys currency cartel translate as an advantage ?

In a few years time these will be seen as the good old days.

old folk like you always get nostalgic :-)

kle4

rcs1000 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I had taken the opposite view for a long time but I have closed to zero my position on Britain leaving the EU on time. I’m not rushing to reverse my position because I still expect a deal to be done. The chances of no deal now look substantial, however, and if no deal is done either a reversal of Brexit or some additional time to tidy up the multitude of low level agreements required becomes possible:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/07/08/the-fly-in-the-ointment-how-brexit-may-be-delayed-by-no-deal/

Interestingly, I'm taking the opposite view. The more sound and fury and threats now, the more likely a deal.

Is that based on the idea this is all pretty choreographed, which is a heck of a gamble, or because the sound and fury will spook one or both sides enough?

I don't think anyone has enough control to choreograph it, believing that is wishful thinking and complacent, and we don't have the political stability to react to the fury in a way to stop the fury. The EU does but is gambling on total capitulation instead.

Alanbrooke

Nigel_Foremain said:

Alanbrooke said:

FF43 said:

rcs1000 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I had taken the opposite view for a long time but I have closed to zero my position on Britain leaving the EU on time. I’m not rushing to reverse my position because I still expect a deal to be done. The chances of no deal now look substantial, however, and if no deal is done either a reversal of Brexit or some additional time to tidy up the multitude of low level agreements required becomes possible:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/07/08/the-fly-in-the-ointment-how-brexit-may-be-delayed-by-no-deal/

Interestingly, I'm taking the opposite view. The more sound and fury and threats now, the more likely a deal.

It looks like the negotiation has run its course and is essentially at take it or leave it. No-one knows what to do if we leave it, so I'm guessing once the situation has sunk into people's minds we will take it. There could however be delay and significant chaos before we do so.

Every deal needs it crisis point. Its in the nature of things.

That is always the view of the extremist. The pain will be worth the eventual utopia. It is the credo of the psychopathic

We can take from that you havent done much negotiation.

kle4

archer101au said:

Freggles said:

logical_song said:

rcs1000 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I had taken the opposite view for a long time but I have closed to zero my position on Britain leaving the EU on time. I’m not rushing to reverse my position because I still expect a deal to be done. The chances of no deal now look substantial, however, and if no deal is done either a reversal of Brexit or some additional time to tidy up the multitude of low level agreements required becomes possible:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/07/08/the-fly-in-the-ointment-how-brexit-may-be-delayed-by-no-deal/

Interestingly, I'm taking the opposite view. The more sound and fury and threats now, the more likely a deal.

If a deal is to be done doesn't that mean either:

a) the DUP backtracking - not something they are known for.
Or
b) the EU accepting a time limited backstop - which I can't see happening.

.. and that's forgetting about the ERG, Boris, other Tory factions and the Labour party.

or DUP vote against but ten Labour MPs vote for the May deal.

What about the ERG and Lab MPs who will vote against the deal....If the DUP are against that will harden the ERG vote. 40 ERG. May is going to need close to 45 Labour MPs to get her deal. Way too many.

Agreed. If they get a dozen they'll be fortunate.

Nigel_Foremain

Foxy said:

Alanbrooke said:

Foxy said:

saddo said:

Foxy said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Staying in the EU is not an option - it means continued freedom of movement, continued contributions to the EU budget this time without the rebate, continued oversight by the ECJ, certain loss of all opt outs as we continue on path to ever closer Union, and having to join the Euro sooner rather than later. I doubt anyone other than hard core Remainers want that. Tory voters don't want it now and Labour voters won’t want it as it means McDonnells asinine spending and renationalisation plans won’t happen.

The problem for the Tories is how they play the blame game. They have no domestic policy agenda to fall back on because they have ignored that and all the other U.K. parties will be blaming them as well as the EU. They only way they get out of the political fall out is by ditching May something they have threatened many times but always been too scared of.

Staying in the EU is always possible. The leaders across the water have consistently said so, but the decision is ours.

The fallout from No Deal in the tabloids will be to blame the EU of course, but the general voting public will blame the government too. An Irish Sea customs border bothers virtually no one on the mainland.

The price the EU mafia will extract for the reverse ferret will be vast, starting with the ending of any rebates & significant increases in UK budget contributions.

Yes, and at that point Britons will realise what a great deal we had with all our existing opt outs.

You don't know what you've got till its gone.

I rather doubt that. How does pay billions a year and we wont force you to become part of Germanys currency cartel translate as an advantage ?

In a few years time these will be seen as the good old days.

"Germanys currency cartel". Spot the person that spent too much time reading war comics, and too little time working out how to use an apostrophe. "Achtung Spitfire"

williamglenn

rcs1000 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I had taken the opposite view for a long time but I have closed to zero my position on Britain leaving the EU on time. I’m not rushing to reverse my position because I still expect a deal to be done. The chances of no deal now look substantial, however, and if no deal is done either a reversal of Brexit or some additional time to tidy up the multitude of low level agreements required becomes possible:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/07/08/the-fly-in-the-ointment-how-brexit-may-be-delayed-by-no-deal/

Interestingly, I'm taking the opposite view. The more sound and fury and threats now, the more likely a deal.

Isn’t it the case that there is a deal, but the question is whether we can take it?

Foxy

Alanbrooke said:

Foxy said:

Alanbrooke said:

Pulpstar said:

Alanbrooke said:

Bavarian election

after the final count CSU did slightly better than first forecasts as 37.2% Greens and Afd slightly worse 17.9% and 10.2%. FDP vote scraped over 5% at 5.1% and the SPD had a disaster losing over 50% of their vote 20.6% in 2013 to 9,7% in 2018.

The germans are now trying to work out what this all means nationally.

The SPD looks to be going the way of the main left parties in France and Greece. At least the CSU is still ahead.
Brilliant result for the greens

yes, I was surprised when I recently looked at how the Socialists were doing in France. One of the strongest socialist parties in Europe is now irrelevant.

It is FPTP that fossilises our parties. The same would happen here if we had PR. From Brasilia to Berlin politics is polarizing, and the sane centrists disappearing.

When the next recession comes that is going to be a very toxic political environment.

You could conversely argue that FPTP keeps the extremists out of UK politics. Your sane centre had a huge run of governmentfor the last 3 decades on its back. They are only out of office because they got smug

FPTP fossilises the party names, but not the policies. Corbyn is Melanchon not Blair, and Boris is that Italian clown.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/JamesAALongman/status/1051739427729494016

Foxy

Casino_Royale said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

TheJezziah said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

If we did get no deal, it would depend where blame was seen to lie. It could be seen as Conservative incompetence, or the UK defying the hostile demands of a foreign power. (Of course, it'd likely be seen as both, with diehard supporters either side lining up for/against the blues and the floating voter determining which side is in the majority).

Possibly riskier for the Tories. Even if for example there is a perfect 50-50 split on blame then those who blame the Tories for any negatives would be more likely to have their vote affected by it than those who blame Europe. Also those who spread the blame between the EU and Conservatives would only (in a GE) be able to vote against (or withhold support from) one of those 2.

Even though I am a Tory, I will blame the Tories. Sadly there is not a credible opposition leader. However stupid the Tories have been over Brexit, and however I hate Johnson, Davis and the disgraced GP, I will not vote for a party with an intellectually lightweight, anti-Semite, quasi-Communist for its leader.

If Labour changed to someone more credible then I would lend them my vote. The state of British politics at the moment is shocking. We make Italy look like a paragon of democratic virtue and stability

I’m struggling to think of any posts you’ve contributed on here where you sound like a Tory.

Guess we’ll have to take your word for it.

I have seen quite a few. Brexit is not the entirety of politics, and a significant minority of Tory members and voters are pro-Remain.

Foxy

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JamesAALongman/status/1051739427729494016

Yes! I bet on this a month back. Those dresses were a giveaway

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Fire, the errors, some significant and obvious, by Remain played a pivotal role in the final, tight result.

Getting a foreign politician to overtly take a side in a domestic referendum was foolish.

Predicting woe, doom, and apocalypse meant such warnings weren't taken seriously and also diluted the impact of more credible negative predictions.

The clear failure to point out any of the advantages (and there were some, almost entirely economic).

Perhaps most critically, neither an independent body nor the official Leave campaign was required to put together a plan of what Leave meant. The referendum wasn't status quo versus The Plan, it was status quo versus not status quo, which naturally helped the latter.

Mr. Foremain, "There were many lies by Leave (whether you argue that there were by Remain is immaterial as they didn't win)."

I disagree. If both sides are exaggerating, to be polite, it makes it harder for the electorate to know the truth, or they assume both sides are full of lies and go with their gut.

Alanbrooke

Foxy said:

Alanbrooke said:

Foxy said:

Alanbrooke said:

Pulpstar said:

Alanbrooke said:

Bavarian election

after the final count CSU did slightly better than first forecasts as 37.2% Greens and Afd slightly worse 17.9% and 10.2%. FDP vote scraped over 5% at 5.1% and the SPD had a disaster losing over 50% of their vote 20.6% in 2013 to 9,7% in 2018.

The germans are now trying to work out what this all means nationally.

The SPD looks to be going the way of the main left parties in France and Greece. At least the CSU is still ahead.
Brilliant result for the greens

yes, I was surprised when I recently looked at how the Socialists were doing in France. One of the strongest socialist parties in Europe is now irrelevant.

It is FPTP that fossilises our parties. The same would happen here if we had PR. From Brasilia to Berlin politics is polarizing, and the sane centrists disappearing.

When the next recession comes that is going to be a very toxic political environment.

You could conversely argue that FPTP keeps the extremists out of UK politics. Your sane centre had a huge run of governmentfor the last 3 decades on its back. They are only out of office because they got smug

FPTP fossilises the party names, but not the policies. Corbyn is Melanchon not Blair, and Boris is that Italian clown.

to some extent Doc Fox. The policies change in line with the national mood.But we are at a caesura in Labour due to the change in membership which has put Corbyn in place. If his wing consolidate their hold on the party then I see no easy way back for the centrists.