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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » However improbable. Looking at the next Prime Minister market
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » However improbable. Looking at the next Prime Minister market
It’s getting messy. In truth, that was always on the cards after the general election result. The public in their wisdom delivered a Parliament with no overall majority, with two main parties both formally committed to implementing Brexit and neither sharing any kind of consensus over what that meant in practice. Theresa May has spent the last 16 months navigating between competing interest groups, endlessly deferring decisions, endlessly conceding ground whenever short term coalitions formed against her and evading final verdicts on her direction of progress in the negotiations.
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Minor niggle, perhaps swept away by the pyroclastic flow might have been a more accurate metaphor than survive the pyroclastic blast.
However I agree with Alastair that the names Cooper and Hammond stand out. Centrist figures ( in Brexit terms ) who's attraction as temp. PM is exactly that their own party wouldn't elect them on their own.
And one of the reasons with is Suez on Steroids is their is no sane US president to tell us we are drunk and go home as in the original Suez. President Clinton or indeed any normal US administration would have banged heads together by now. But Trump is happy to watch the world burn as it suits his agenda.
This is now purely about the nternal internal politics of the Tory Party. There will be a deal as we have no choice. It's going to be a dreadful deal because we have no choice. The deal will enrage most Remainers because it's Brexit and not a Unicorn. The deal will enrage most Brexiters it's not a Unicorn and thus not Brexit. The deal will be chronically unpopular because their is too little centre ground on this topic and it's too late to build one. Which Tory with a future will want to vote for May's deal ? Which Labour MP with a future will want to rescue May ?
May needs a Cabinet and a Commons majority of grey beards who are prepared to save the ship because they are innthe Autumn/Winter of their careers. The added problem is such figures tend to be exactly the sorts of folk who'll have the dimest view of Brexit innthe first place.
My instinct is the narrative has spent too much time on whether a deal will be done. It suggests doing a deal will bring closure. We've under analysed that the next Stage is that deal will be chronically unpopular.
1. “This is now purely about the internal politics of the Tory Party.”
It has always been thus, ever since the days of Heath. Membership of the EU sets up two wholly irreconcilable thoughts in the Tory hive mind.
It’s good for business therefore I like it.
I’m not in charge, as is my God-given right, therefore I don’t like it.
2. Most people have tuned out the endless twists and turns we all find so fascinating. They will tune back in as soon as there’s a deal, and they really really won’t like it.
Buy shares in cardboard, felt tip pen and shoe manufacturers, there’ll be lots more placards and marching over the weeks and months to come.
I'd want very good odds to be tempted on this.
I'd want very good odds to be tempted on this.
Far more exciting and terrifying than Brexit in equal measure, and far more important.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/f9ba5588-d21a-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5
I don't think enough Labour MPs would back Hammond, unless he promised a 2nd referendum (killing support within his own party).
Vince is a non-starter, he'll never get enough Labour support post-Coalition or Tories to trust he will implement Brexit.
Yvette is just possible I think, perhaps if she promised to try to secure Norway/soft Brexit. How Corbyn would react is anyone's guess!
Other possibilities - Ed Miliband, Ken Clarke, Liz Kendall?
1) Jeremy Corbyn
2) see above
I understand the joys of parenthood make up for the lack of sleep and social life
Also interesting read as always AM. Edit: He should get paid double his current rate per article at least...
If it's a girl, May I suggest Theresa?
could I just advise you may want to luxuriate in sleep now, you wont get much of it for the next 10 years
The quid pro quo is that she must visit us in the old people’s home, bringing us smiles, fruit and biscuits and tolerating my rantings.
In reality the EU has a choice. They can either accept one of the several UK proposals on NI that are currently on the table or they can accept that the UK will be leaving with no deal and a far harder border between the UK and Eire than anything that we are proposing at the moment. It is simply not possible for May to give any more on this because it would not pass the Commons.
One point arising from PMQs yesterday is that May said that the UK pays its debts and that we will be paying the £39bn whether there is a deal or not. I found that...interesting, not because I disagree with the proposition but because so many of her party, particularly in the ERG, will not.
Margaret Theresa Nadine Royale has a definite ring to it.
Many congratulations to you both
So much for you both to look forward to in 2019
All the very best
First year constant feeding and changing
Second year sort of a break but no lie ins
Years 3-5 theyre mobile and crawl in to bed or start running water all over the place at 5 am
Years 6-10 - its quiet. too quiet, you get suspicious and want to see what theyre up to
Years 10+ teenage beckons and you have no chance of getting them out of bed in the morning but no chance of getting them in to it the night before
Year 18+ - they go to uni out of sight out of mind, except now the Mrs stays up all night worrying about them
Maybe old people sleep a lot because they are catching all that lost sleep back :-)
If we have another vote, remain and then 2 years later opinion shifts once again decisively against the EU... Is there a push for yet another vote ?
Before we simply blame our government like the slavishly opportunistic Labour party, “oh we’d conclude negotiations in next to no time, we’re so brilliant”: You cant even negotiate with you own party colleagues to sit next to you on front bench and share your half baked policies, McDonnhell you twat! lets remember May and her ministers always negotiated in good faith, fair to the voice of nearly 18 million patriotic Britain’s, our government honest about everyone’s need for a something for something accord, it was the self-indulgent intransigence of the EU monster that dragged everything to this point.
The EU is true architect of all the coming pain, not the Brexit vote. No deal was always unnecessary if the EU behaved like a grown up. How dare anyone suggest otherwise! How dare anyone march for a people’s vote after today! Have you no pride? Have you no respect for 17.4 million of your brothers and sisters who saw what this 27 headed monster has become?
Its the bottom line today thats the killer, the agnostic and lofty EU should care for the culture and fears of the Ulster Unionists, not more but certainly no less than every other person and grouping in its Empire. It’s Because Europe will never be fashioned with flesh of God hating European citizens, but by the blood of her diverse people - otherwise it will always be a fake and crumbling Empire that cannot see this.
I'll get my coat. Have a good morning.
I was wondering who Alastair would put forward for the Labour side. Yvette is a non-starter I'm afraid, even if many Labour MPs were tempted to vote for her how would they get her into office over the head of the Kali Ma hate squad? The Labour view is and will be that only a General Election is in the national interest as any Tory leader like Yvette Cooper is evil.
Believe it or not, my wife likes it.
Congratulations, Mr. Royale
On-topic: I only ever bet on the next Con leader market for that reason. Imagine how annoying it would be if you get that right but had put the wager on next PM and it ended up being someone from Labour.
I thus think it’s a UK concession to them to buy something else, like some movement on NI or flexibility on treating the UK more cohesively more broadly.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/padr.12042
That piece says "Over two thirds (69.2 percent) of asylum applicants in Germany from the principal countries of origin in 2015 are male."
I suppose one could argue that they still got 50,000 women of child baring age plus around 60,000 girls, but the price was a lot more men. Perhaps @rcs1000 thinks German women are just waiting to be swept off their feet by a young man from the Middle East.
Applicable retrospectively.
We would be the only country who could never leave....
Seriously, congratulations!
*other names are available....
What a master strategist.
Cos "her" deal as it relates to NI will send the Brexiters absolutely mental.
There are two legal issues - there is no primary liability; and even if there was, there is no jurisdiction in which this can be enforced.
Apart from everything else, the public were hugely anti paying the EU even in the event of a deal. If the Tories try to pay them for no deal, they are seriously screwed. It can't be defended as paying our obligations because there are great legal minds who have decided this is not true. It says everything about May and Hammond that they are even talking about this.
Your idealist logic is faultless; your understanding of politics less so.
She can't just agree to it now on the basis that all things considered in her view it probably is pretty unlikely that it would ever be used.
Most likely May stays for years in a BINO Brexit, the ERG do not have the numbers to topple her
I was going to say, pop over to Dublin to give birth, but I find Ireland abolished jus soli in 2005.
Given the levels of dissatisfaction with the EU in the UK (and vice versa), & the acrimony over the negotiations, the pre-existing state of affairs cannot be returned to.
What has been done cannot be undone.
The EU basically has the choice of the UK pissing inside or outside their tent. They will surely choose outside.
Asking for CETA takes this away. Then they might deal over the backstop.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1052806621796155392
Sounds like there will only be two options. But that's fine because all the letters will be in by the end of the week and she'll be gone, replaced by JRM/Boris/Mad Nad.
Right?
From their perspective, it will look like they are allowing the UK more time to benefit from the European Union and put off the pain and difficult decisions of leaving.
The UK.
That the EU nations think there is an overall benefit to being in the EU is hardly surprising.
At 0.03, we see the poster “Mis-Sold Brexit ? The Will of the People is a Peoples Vote”.
A charming Remainer touch to put in a fussy and unnecessary hyphen, but the crucial apostrophe is missing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-45877334
Be interesting to see if she proposes a year's extension with a price tag of £10bn what the reaction of her MPs is.
If the referendum had done that we wouldn't be in this mess...
She is going to run into big problems though if her side believe she is making concessions and should therefore get something in return; when in fact it is the EU conceding a longer transition and they are likely to demand further something from the UK.