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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Nation once again ? – Part 1 The economics
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Nation once again ? – Part 1 The economics
The fallout from the Brexit vote has led to more interest in the future of Northern Ireland than is usual. In particular the issue of a one state Ireland has bubbled back to the top of the political discussion with, as ever, strong views on either side
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As for the middle class nature of the march that's what should terrify the Tories. The march wasn't backed by the bedrock of Britain's civil society - the churches, the unions and the charities. Nor was it backed by the professional marching class - the Corbynite far left. While I accept the 700k aren't representitive of Britain - they are more politically engaged than average neither were they anything close to the usual suspects of central London protest. And it's that disproportionate engagement that will give them clout in future elections with lower turnouts than the 2016 referendum. Which is almost all modern elections.
If you are serious about constructing a Tory majority in the Commons in 2022 that march yesterday shoukd worry you and provoke a Brexit compromise. We'll see but I suspect Theresa May may have had the better day of it than Corbyn did in the short term.
I doubt it has moved the minds of northern labour mps representing areas that voted leave.
London isn't particularly representative of the rest of England.
In short, it's all a bit meh.
On topic - fascinating thread and look forward to the others in the series. As ever with "simple " solutions "Its a bit more complicated than that".
However,Germany itself has been through a similar disruptive unification process and so the motivations and one off costs are well understood exactly where Ireland most needs them to be well understood. Ireland would get a lot of leeway from the EU on what would essentially be treated as a one-off cost.
If English nationalists turn their backs on Northern Ireland to pursue Brexit instead, sooner or later the practical difficulties of unification will be overruled by the emotion. The younger generation in particular will be watching closely.
That isn’t necessarily the case with Ireland, especially Northern Ireland.
I’m no expert on the country, but my strong impression is that there’s a deep cultural difference between the two communities, and what is now the majority in the North, which would be a minority in a United Ireland, is deeply hostile to the idea of being ruled by the South. Neither may be as ‘religious’ as they were, but I suspect that acceptance of unity among a significant minority in the North is an idea which is going to be a lot ‘later’ in coming.
You do have to wonder about these people who think that the views of those who live in by far the largest and richest city in the country somehow don’t count.
No part of the UK is particularly representative of any other. The South East is nothing like the South West. Yorkshire is unlike the North West. London is unlike the Midlands.
It doesn’t mattter. If you want to make your point, you go to London.
A bubble made up of substantially more people who voted for the DUP, of course, which makes it difficult to defend the influence of the latter group while dismissing these people’s views out of hand.
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ryanair-london-flight-racist-man_us_5bcbb441e4b0a8f17eed1de0
https://wingsoverscotland.com/friends-like-ours/
A few months ago, after another remain rally, leavers on here were taking the p*ss out of the fact relatively few people turned up. Now, when they do, it's a London bubble thing. Many leavers are in danger of being exactly what they accused remainers of being: complacent.
I doubt yesterday's rally will change anything. But it's stupid to ignore that many voices.
Good article, Mr. Brooke.
When I was getting glasses for the first time (I was still at primary school) my optician was an Irishman. Perhaps the only time I had a chap do it. Anyway, I was quieter then than I am now, but we got talking (I quite liked his accent). When I emerged with the prescription, my mother, who had been waiting outside, was relieved as we'd apparently been talking for so long she was getting worried something was wrong.
F1: my bet was seven-hundredths off being very green, and nine-thousandths off being green each way. That's a tiny bit frustrating. Not quite as bad as when I backed Kubica for pole in Monaco and he was two-thousandths off, but close.
It was a big London demonstration - and as the seat of government, parliament and the commentariat will have an impact. Whether it has Nissan workers in Sunderland regretting their vote is another matter.
It could be that the biggest Irish reunification challenge would be absorbibg large numbers of largely unproductive, highly sectarian Ulster Scots into the mainland. If Ireland reunifies before Scotland departs, it may make Scottish independence harder to achieve ;-)
Inevitably its on video:
https://twitter.com/_SJPeace_/status/1053743128564416512
Having threatened violence the abuser was a threat to flight safety and should have been removed.
Aren’t most demos largely middle class?
It was a Barcelona to Stansted flight, before departure in Barcelona (doors still open so easy to deplane him).
It would cost a fortune to buy this much bad publicity
It might be 'basic maths' in your mind, but it's 'basic maths' based on a stupid assumption.
Basic maths. Snort.
The people in London's view don't count any more, it doesn't matter how rich they are.
That's why there are elections.
Big marches have little impact on official govt policy.
Where it could have an impact is around the margins... the ERG should have been taking notice yesterday. Continue to bugger about and you risk Brexit entirely.
Leavers are petulant about it today, but have completely failed to deliver what they promised. In time we will make Britain sane again.
Meanwhile:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1053904970989264896?s=19
That being said, I also reckon that just using coach numbers is not going to get an accurate number for those from out of London. There are apparently other ways to get into town: cars, regular buses, trains, etc. etc. etc. Based on the entirely unrepresentative sample of my Facebook feed, there were a lot of non-Londoners there.
This won't derail Brexit. This won't make any appreciable difference to the likelihood of No Deal. What it does do is emphasise the very deep divisions in society that have been caused by the government's handling of Brexit.
The Iraq war did not sink the Labour Party - but it did create the atmosphere that allowed Corbyn to become Leader. It is the aftershocks from Brexit that have the most potential to be dangerous to the United Kingdom.
Sadly, we have precious few 'wise' politicians, and all politicians are hamstrung by reality.
The ROI economy is far more creative and dynamic than the six counties, which looks increasingly like a backwater in Ireland, when once it was the economic powerhouse.
The real challenge is more political. If unification is wanted, it will happen never mind the economics. I wonder if a 52% vote is all that is needed there too?
That has a ring to it.
I think someone might have linked it on here.
It is also a duty of government to balance all competing interests and not just focus on the economics. The damage done to civil society from a perceived political elite overturning the biggest democratic vote in our history is possibly incalculable.
We are currently members of the best club in the world. A club which gives unfettered access to move live and work in any one of twenty seven different countries stretching from the arctic to the shores of Africa
I watched it from an ochre coloured Nice as the sun went down. A more beautiful city than I'm capable of describing and I wondered how we could have allowed ourselves to be taken in by the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg and Nigel farage who have nothing in common with any of us.
Twickenham
Fulham
Newcastle
Bournemouth
East Grinstead
Crowborough
Manchester
Slight bias to the south likely because I arrived by train at Victoria and there were so many using the same route we formed a modestly impressive march simply getting from the station to the starting point and were still bunched together.
It was sort of a middle class crowd. It was the sort of people you see at the supermarket rather than at a football match or the opera. So not a totally representative demographic. But still quite a big one. And very definitely not just a London one.
Even so the absorption of East Germany was a challenge and stretched their mighty economy for a couple of decades. What would fix the NI economy? What can fix it? Those evil little bastards with bombs and guns (or friends, as Jeremy called them) did far more economic damage than physical damage but 20 years on there is no sign of that damage being undone. It is a massive failure of economic policy which has largely been ignored. NI has a good education system, reasonable infrastructure and horrific PR. It’s politics is dysfunctional as shown by the fact that the Assembly has not even sat for years now, and completely dominated by dinosaurs focused on religious differences.
This, as @Alanbrooke points out, is the real problem of NI. Brexit and the border is just another distraction.
My experience of crowds is from football grounds dispersing. It was about 10 times the size of the biggest of those that I have been in. Whether it was 700 000 or a mere half million is hard to judge.
Big enough to demonstrate the complete failure of the Brexiteers to convince though. The backlash and aftershocks of Brexit are not going to be good for the Tories. The Iraq war was survived by Labour, but the mendacity and arrogance of the leadership makes them pariahs. The parallel with Brexit is there to be seen.
In short order, it would become the trading hub for the whole of Western Europe - a twenty first century answer to Berlin with better architecture.
But somehow I don't think that will happening.
I still see the potential negative effects for the Tories but I wonder how that will change the impact of it.
Tony Blair with his persistent (and usually false) demonisation of his opponents probably bears a large part of the blame, although that's not to absolve Thatcher who used similar tactics (with a good deal more validity).
It's very worrying, and I don't see how either May, or the even more tribal Corbyn, can possibly break this vicious circle.
But also if the British mainland becomes a land bridge for Ireland then there are many imports could be pushed through. This is why it will never happen!
1) Remainers
2) WWC voters who support Leave but otherwise find the Tories anathema
3) Those wanting competence in government.
Certainly there needs to be alternatives to vote for, and apart from 2) not much Corbyn can appeal to, but it doesn't look good for the Tories.
You've made it much clearer.
The WA proposal gives the province the best deal in these islands. Single Market with no costs.
I wasn't angry about the march, I had no idea it was taking place until I saw someone with a placard heading towards Crawley station. I knew not what it said as the wording was on the other side, I just thought, some new pointless demonstration.
We voted out, end of. I don't like it, I voted In, but I have to live with the consequences of a democratic vote.
Released Government papers from the height of the Troubles in 1972 show Ted Heath's government saw one way of solving the problem as to remove hundreds of thousands of Catholics from Northern Ireland leaving a wholly Protestant sectarian state
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.scotsman.com/news/politics/plan-for-expulsion-of-catholics-from-ulster-1-634389/amp
Total Irish revenues are €70 billion a year. It would require tax increases of 15% to fund the full UK fiscal transfer to Northern Ireland of £10 billion a year. The EU would probably contribute and it may not stay at the full amount. But reunification will come with a significant cash cost to the rest of Ireland. The question is whether they are willing to pay it.
However, we are all rather assuming that there would be no extra security costs associated with a transfer of sovereignty. Most Republican terrorists seem to have reluctantly accepted the current setttlement - can we be sure the UFF would accept a change?
On the Ireland question, I think once we get to a referendum it will be a case of "vote unification and lose the NHS" and enough Catholics will vote to stay in the privacy of the polling booth. There's no way that Ireland can indefinitely subsidise the North so they have free healthcare and better welfare standards.
Raab just comes across as a vacuous charisma-less Tory dimwit. Theresa May is a colossus compared to a non-entity imbecile like Raab.
What is it with the right-wing Brexiteers this morning? Go take a chill-pill...
see the positives and I presume some level of devolution could be worked out
I have a massive organ to inflate and play with. I intend to use both hands and my feet, possibly all at once, especially when manipulating my eight foot horn on the full swell.
Have a good morning.