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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Nation once again? Part 2 – Culture and politics
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Nation once again? Part 2 – Culture and politics
In the previous article I looked at economics which is quite a hurdle. This article looks at the longer term issue of the impact of putting two sets of people together . In Ulster the past always lies ahead of us, so somewhere along the line somebody needs to be squaring circles. The North, trapped in its history and with a victim mentality, somehow needs to fit in to a fast modernising, liberal state which increasingly wants to leave the past behind.
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Now that'll be a challenge.
Alan does sound quite frustrated at how the British governments over the years have handled the area.
http://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/dublin-population/
20th October
People's March 670,000.
Leave Means Leave 1,200.
In the Republic Fine Gael was originally the least Republican Party, being the party of Michael Collins and the Treaty with the British. Fianna Fail was the more Republican anti Treaty party of De Valera and Sinn Fein is the most vociferous advocate of Irish unity in both the north and south of Ireland. Economically though Sinn Fein is left of FG and FF and if Irish reunification did come about it would indeed likely overtake FF and become the main opponent of FG
Hmmm.
Brusque, yes. Obstinate, yes.
When have we ever kept MalcolmG vaguely to the point in any thread?
During its 45 years in the EU, Britain has imported many tens of thousands of European laws and regulations. Many thousands more have direct effect. EU law has had absolute supremacy over British law ever since British accession. A little understood legal reality. The fabric of Europe’s legal framework is the fabric of the UK’s political life.
I’m not sure that helps the Remain argument...
1. The Catholic/Republican community is on the ascendant compared with the Protestant/Unionist one these days.
2. There is a growing band of "plague on both of your houses" of mostly younger, more secular people who want Northern Ireland to be s normal place. These people mostly have an Irish identity.
3. Brexit throws the current settlement into the air. The DUP should be frightened but apparently weren't. Sinn Fein pretend to hate Brexit but actually it's a gift for them. Brexit does more for its cause of a United Ireland than decades of violence.
What we are seeing in Northern Ireland is the long-term consequence of unending, unconditional fiscal transfers. I just don’t see reunification happening without a British government that will bend over backwards to smooth over the financial issues by making payments for decades into the future. A government led by Corbyn or McDonell is the best that Irish nationalists could ever hope for.
Secondly, I don’t think the Republic will be prepared to make changes to its flag, anthem, or accept the continued existence of devolved institutions and a separate jurisdiction within the island. This will make reconciliation with the Unionists very difficult, and a rejectionist minority of 15% will make government challenging.
Ultimately, I think reunification would be rejected in a referendum, even when Catholics represent over 50% of the population.
https://twitter.com/nickboles/status/1053988818863513600?s=21
My only observation is that until now the Unionists in Northern Ireland have been focused on maintaining the Union and their ascendency. If the Union ends it’s hard to think that an existential crisis won’t follow. Unionism as a political end will be dead. Some, like Arlene Foster, might resettle on the mainland; others - younger and middle class - will largely adapt and get on with it. That will leave a large rump, but maybe one that over time, and with careful management, may be reconciled. As per the previous thread, American money may smooth over many potential problems.
First, many thanks to Alanbrooke for two superbly written well-argued and wholly thought-provoking threads so far. Both have broadened and deepened my knowledge of Northern (and indeed Southern) Irish politics, economics and culture.
As far as unification, in the absence of a military solution, the only two alternatives would be either for the rest of the UK to throw the Northern Irish Protestants under the bus or for the south to make the north an offer it can't refuse.
I'm reminded of two notions - first, "money talks, people walk" and second "people who are busy making money are less inclined to make trouble". The preservation, continuation and perpetuation of prosperity is or are the deliverables that will make this happen. If the Northern Irish can be guaranteed their current prosperity and a continuation of said in the new Ireland, they will be in.
My other thought is whether the answer is to have Northern Ireland as part of BOTH Ireland and the United Kingdom. Before everyone starts commenting about where they were the Sunday afternoon Stodge finally went mad I'm thinking about a largely autonomous entity with a large amount of self-government but supported by and answerable to both Dublin and London which would act as mutual guarantors for the settlement.
It's rough and poorly defined but perhaps worth a Sunday afternoon's thought or two.
Sometimes "the answer" isn't worth all the effort - not answering the question can be the best solution.
I think Theresa May understands this - everyone claims to want a "deal" but I suspect deep down the ideal would be for transition to go on for ever and for negotiations about the end to transition to keep minds occupied and diverted for an equal length of time.
To bring us back on topic, the only thing worse than the Irish Question would be the Irish Answer.
Good articles. I look forward to your third. If I do have an observation, your first article listed the economic problems with an united Ireland and inferred that they precluded it. If the last decade has taught us anything, it's that people will ignore unpleasant economics in favor of fantasies when required.
https://www.itv.com/news/2018-10-21/dominic-raab-undermines-theresa-may-on-brexit-transition/
inferredimplied(A pedant writes)
Unfortunately, I fear that they will find the modern, tolerant, equality focused UK every bit as alien as Eire, possibly even more so. The Ulster folk are indeed caught in an unpleasant time warp of their own creation. We have done them absolutely no favours by allowing ourselves to be blackmailed by the threat of bombs and killings into paying for a quiet life.
I think this is the largest non-coastal town in Ireland:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Navan
It really is time to move on. But it won't be easy.
(commits seppuku immediately)
We have done them absolutely no favours by allowing ourselves to be blackmailed by the threat of bombs and killings into paying for a quiet life.
- that includes paying homage to the troublemakers by conceding the "backstop".
Very slowly, very, very, slowly, the west coast is moving away from this nonsense. The last thing they need is 50k Protestant fundamentalists stirring it all up again. It could give us another 50 years of this nonsense.
Certainly reminded me of some of my Scottish relations:
"Have you considered?" = "You'll be wanting (if you're lucky, 'need' more common) to....."
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1053754665446334464
Kind of makes me think as an Englishman that we might be better off to make Northern Ireland simply be Ireland's problem and not our own.
It would be today my relatives drop in unexpectedly so family duties called.
The last article which I think comes out tomorrow looks at the lessons from abroad - mostly germany and what we can learn fromit.
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/police-and-gangsters-at-war-on-irelands-border-28472597.html
Hunt and Javid will be wondering whether their own prospects would really be served by having to prop up a failed dead parrot for another year while her party and a large chunk of her MPs are in open revolt, and the government totally loses its ability to function without a majority for routine business. Given the risk of dragging themselves down by association as the "guilty men", they might prefer to run for the leadership in the winter of 2018/19 not 2019/20.
I wonder how another 500k Rangers supporters might affect things in Scotland, since that to me wouyld be the first port of call for many of them, Cancel Indyref2 for several generations,
The Conservative party maintain their +5 lead in October’s voting intentions. Scores for each party remain largely unchanged. [Among likely voters: Conservatives 41% (+1), Labour 36% (+1), Lib Dems 10% (nc), SNP 4 % (nc), Green 4% (nc), UKIP 3% (-2%), PC 1% (+1), Other 2% (+1).]
Of the 7 published polls whose fieldwork took place in October, Labour have led in just one.
Should we hope for that, or wish for otherwise?
If Northern Ireland could form a happy union with the Republic that would be a joyous marriage not a tragic divorce. We could be happy relatives with the United Irish in the same way as we are with Aussies, Canadians etc
Northern Ireland seems perpetually stuck in the angry teenager stage. If they could move on and we could be doting grandparents then that would be a happy moment.
2) The final piece is set to be published overnight, assuming nothing major happens
3) Why does no one talk about an Independent Northern Ireland, it would solve so many problems,
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/20/uk/brexit-peoples-vote-march-intl/index.html
Hunt and Javid can think what they want, if May goes she takes them down with her, the Tory Party will then be on a full steam ticket to No Deal Brexit and diehard Brexiteer leadership, only Davis, Boris, Mogg, Patel and maybe a now resigned Raab, Mourdant and McVey can apply, former Remainers will go down with the May ship and are deluded if they think they have a chance if May loses a confidence vote
The debate about how to avoid a hard border is unnecessary.
The main question I scratch my head on is law and order. The Garda just is not geared up to coping with policing the annual riotfests in Belfast. I personally think it is such an ingrained event that they will still have to police Republican and Loyalists punch ups. Eventually both of them will see the police as the enemy and so they stay areas outside the rule of law.
They have (finally) tweeted the following:
https://twitter.com/Ryanair/status/1053918867444129797
"Bridgen has been an outspoken critic of the Speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow. In March 2018 he suggested Bercow should resign, whilst also reporting him to the parliamentary commissioner for standards, to investigate whether he had broken the MPs’ code of conduct. An inquiry into allegations that Bercow had bullied members of staff was subsequently blocked by MPs and he remained in post.[33] In November 2017, Bridgen separately reported fellow MP Dan Poulter to the Conservative Party's newly established disciplinary committee after it was alleged he had put his hand up the skirts of an least three female MPs.[34] Poulter was subsequently cleared of inappropriate behaviour claims in March 2018.[35][36] Within Leicestershire, Bridgen has repeatedly called for disciplinary action against fellow MP Keith Vaz over a range of different issues and for him to resign."
Not all bad then.
This results in:
Con 309 seats
Lab 262 seats
LD 17 seats
Grn 1 seat
PC 3 seats NI 18 seats
Tories 17 short of an overall majority. Horribly hung!
In practice the Tories could benefit from Kippers voting Tory if no UKIP candidate. Labour could also benefit from more exposure and equal air time in an election campaign. Who knows? I think we can be confident there wouldn't be a majority Labour government but roughly equal chance of a minority Tory (with DUP) or minority Labour government (assuming LDs wouldn't give C&S to the Tories).