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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB would struggle to win a snap election with 50% of GE2017 LAB voters not rating him as “best PM”

While all the focus this week has been on TMay’s chances of survival the PM and her party can take comfort in the latest “Best PM” ratings from YouGov in which those polled are given just two options – her and Corbyn.

Read the full story here

Nigelb

And firstly, ....

RobD

Pipped to the post!

Nigelb

does not bode well for Labour in a general election

It doesn't, but I think their prospects are more dependent upon the circumstances in which the next election might be called.

Nigelb

RobD said:

Pipped to the post!

Beaten in the dash to the first corner, perhaps.

Pulpstar

I quite like Corbyn's brexit position actually - well the one he stated to the house yesterday.

TheWhiteRabbit

Nigelb said:

And firstly, ....

Does not compute. There is no word "firstly"

Morris_Dancer

Mr. B, I concur.

Good afternoon, everyone.

Another reading is that if Labour were led by someone who has never marched gleefully under Stalin banners they'd be miles ahead.

Pulpstar

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Nigelb said:

And firstly, ....

Does not compute. There is no word "firstly"

Alot of people say that.

Sean_F

Pulpstar said:

I quite like Corbyn's brexit position actually - well the one he stated to the house yesterday.

I think that the idea of being part of a Customs Union which allows us to negotiate our own trade deals is brilliant. The only trouble is the EU will never agree it.

TGOHF

Very unlikely to be an election before 2022 so all a bit moot.

Pulpstar

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B, I concur.

Good afternoon, everyone.

Another reading is that if Labour were led by someone who has never marched gleefully under Stalin banners they'd be miles ahead.

The greens would be higher.

williamglenn

Sean_F said:

Pulpstar said:

I quite like Corbyn's brexit position actually - well the one he stated to the house yesterday.

I think that the idea of being part of a Customs Union which allows us to negotiate our own trade deals is brilliant. The only trouble is the EU will never agree it.

It's a contradiction in terms.

kjh

I just couldn't answer the question. If neither had been PM it would be easy. I just can't envisage Corbyn as PM. I just can't. Whereas if May hadn't become PM she would look like she could make a reasonable fist of it. But she hasn't.

TheWhiteRabbit

Pulpstar said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Nigelb said:

And firstly, ....

Does not compute. There is no word "firstly"

Alot of people say that.

Alots know better.

kjh

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B, I concur.

Good afternoon, everyone.

Another reading is that if Labour were led by someone who has never marched gleefully under Stalin banners they'd be miles ahead.

+1

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Pulpstar, indeed.

Mr. Glenn, aye. Just like the far left complaining we aren't spending enough and borrowing is too high.

BannedInParis

Pulpstar said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B, I concur.

Good afternoon, everyone.

Another reading is that if Labour were led by someone who has never marched gleefully under Stalin banners they'd be miles ahead.

The greens would be higher.

quite.

the idea that there's one route that would not have any negatives is not worth any serious discussion.

corbyn allows labour to collect the votes and support of a wide range of moonbats, discontents and other varieties of fruitloop.

williamglenn

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/10/23/only-one-five-brits-think-second-out-eu-referendum/

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Rabbit, I like that alot.

currystar

kjh said:

I just couldn't answer the question. If neither had been PM it would be easy. I just can't envisage Corbyn as PM. I just can't. Whereas if May hadn't become PM she would look like she could make a reasonable fist of it. But she hasn't.

Did you watch her in Parliament yesterday? I thought her knowledge of the brief and her ability to answer questions was exceptional. I know I would be hopeless at it. I know she is not everyone's cup of tea and her style and methods can be a bit odd but I think she deserves enormous credit for her ability to battle on despite being in an impossible postion where she can please no one. I think the public are beginning to recognise her qualities. I also thought the dancing queen moment was inspired.

anothernick

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

Pulpstar said:

I quite like Corbyn's brexit position actually - well the one he stated to the house yesterday.

I think that the idea of being part of a Customs Union which allows us to negotiate our own trade deals is brilliant. The only trouble is the EU will never agree it.

It's a contradiction in terms.

Of course it is.

What we need is an indefinite time limited backstop. Couldn't be simpler.

TheWhiteRabbit

anothernick said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

Pulpstar said:

I quite like Corbyn's brexit position actually - well the one he stated to the house yesterday.

I think that the idea of being part of a Customs Union which allows us to negotiate our own trade deals is brilliant. The only trouble is the EU will never agree it.

It's a contradiction in terms.

Of course it is.

What we need is an indefinite time limited backstop. Couldn't be simpler.

In the CU or out of it...

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Nick, Schrodinger's Backstop.

Pulpstar

TheWhiteRabbit said:

anothernick said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

Pulpstar said:

I quite like Corbyn's brexit position actually - well the one he stated to the house yesterday.

I think that the idea of being part of a Customs Union which allows us to negotiate our own trade deals is brilliant. The only trouble is the EU will never agree it.

It's a contradiction in terms.

Of course it is.

What we need is an indefinite time limited backstop. Couldn't be simpler.

In the CU or out of it...

In it for now. That's both May's and Corbyn's plan.

CarlottaVance

FPT:

Foxy said:

kjh said:

Tissue_Price said:

kjh said:

anothernick said:

stodge said:

volcanopete said:

I very much like Peter Dowd's response to the Maybot's claim that the Brexit deal is "95% done" that the Titanic was "95% succesful" too.A little dry humour hits the spot far better than abuse.

Unfortunately dry humour is no match for the pointless pedantry which pervades Internet discourse these days. Some people are arguing over whether it was 700,000, 100,000 or just 70 people marching last Saturday.

Who cares ? As those deep meaning philosophers Bewitched once advised "Get A Life".

The fact that people are still talking about it and trying to minimise the numbers tells its own story.

+1

The fact that the initial number was clearly a deliberate overestimation (aka a lie, in less Parliamentary terms) also tells its own story.

But 'twas ever thus with marches, regardless of their political persuasion. Maybe we need a MarchCheck website which provides independent estimates for all of them...

Was it? I would expect the organisers to spin the numbers, but there hasn't really been any unbiased contradiction in the media. Obviously CR thinks there were only 5 people on the march. If there was a significant exaggeration they have done a good job in getting away with it.

The estimates that I have seen came from police

Got a link? All I've read from the Met was they "couldn't estimate the size".

anothernick

TheWhiteRabbit said:

anothernick said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

Pulpstar said:

I quite like Corbyn's brexit position actually - well the one he stated to the house yesterday.

I think that the idea of being part of a Customs Union which allows us to negotiate our own trade deals is brilliant. The only trouble is the EU will never agree it.

It's a contradiction in terms.

Of course it is.

What we need is an indefinite time limited backstop. Couldn't be simpler.

In the CU or out of it...

In on Mondays, Tuesdays and Wednesdays and out for the rest of the week. Both in and out on Bank Holidays. There has to be technological solution.

Big_G_NorthWales

Pulpstar said:

I quite like Corbyn's brexit position actually - well the one he stated to the house yesterday.

He read to the house. It is the first time I have seen him read his response

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Pulpstar, ha.

How do we leave? When do we leave? What happens when we leave?

A man consenting to be tied to the bedposts ought to actually trust the person doing it.

TrèsDifficile

@Foxy FPT

Have you a link to the police estimate of the numbers?

According to the Beeb, "The Metropolitan Police said it was not able to estimate the size of the crowd."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45925542

Pulpstar

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Pulpstar, ha.

How do we leave? When do we leave? What happens when we leave?

A man consenting to be tied to the bedposts ought to actually trust the person doing it.

We could leave very very fully if parliament agrees for there to be a customs border all along the UK's actual border.
They won't, so we aren't.

Pulpstar

Damn, Tool and Rob Zombie at Download - but clashes with holiday we'll be taking I think ><

Big_G_NorthWales

currystar said:

kjh said:

I just couldn't answer the question. If neither had been PM it would be easy. I just can't envisage Corbyn as PM. I just can't. Whereas if May hadn't become PM she would look like she could make a reasonable fist of it. But she hasn't.

Did you watch her in Parliament yesterday? I thought her knowledge of the brief and her ability to answer questions was exceptional. I know I would be hopeless at it. I know she is not everyone's cup of tea and her style and methods can be a bit odd but I think she deserves enormous credit for her ability to battle on despite being in an impossible postion where she can please no one. I think the public are beginning to recognise her qualities. I also thought the dancing queen moment was inspired.

For someone under the pressure she is it is quite remarkable how she comes out fighting and with a knowledge of her subject far more detailed than those opposing her. The weekend abuse she suffered has unquestionably damaged ERG and sustained her and for all her faults and inability to communicate the public respect her dedication to her role and if she was forced out, I believe the party would see a voter backlash against the party. Dancing queen was inspired

Pulpstar

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/23/mays-knotty-brexit-backstop-problem-how-could-be-solved?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other interesting.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. NorthWales, Pyrrhus and Sun Tzu both suggested leaving a way to retreat, as those with their back to the wall and no other way out fight all the harder.

rkrkrk

Sean_F said:

Pulpstar said:

I quite like Corbyn's brexit position actually - well the one he stated to the house yesterday.

I think that the idea of being part of a Customs Union which allows us to negotiate our own trade deals is brilliant. The only trouble is the EU will never agree it.

Has he actually said that? I thought the Labour position was that they wanted a say/to be consulted when the EU does its trade deals.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/26/jeremy-corbyn-customs-union-idea-just-might-fly-brexit

OblitusSumMe

There are a number of different explanations for Labour's surprisingly strong performance at the last GE.

One is that anti-Brexit voters rallied to Labour as the only available means to deny Theresa May a landslide majority to implement her vision of Brexit, which was explicitly hostile to Remain voters. Following that interpretation it's not surprising that many of these voters do not rate Corbyn, because that's not why they voted Labour.

The implication is that as soon as Brexit is done and dusted Labour poll support will fall off a cliff - but any GE before then could well see Remain voters reluctantly rally yet again to support a leader who is at best reluctant about their cause. Any port in a storm.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Me, I think it's pretty simple. Corbyn campaigned well and was given an easy time by the media. The Conservatives launched the worst campaign since Bactria and Sogdiana decided rebelling against Alexander the Great would be a clever move.

Big_G_NorthWales

Sky news campaign for a leaders debate commission which they have been promoting at every opportunity over the last month or so and received 46,000 votes has hit the buffers as the cabinet office has told Sky there are no plans for this at present

Of course this was Sky and Adam Boulton trying to look after their own interests and you have to ask, with all that is going on now, what made them think the government would be remotely interested

Morris_Dancer

Mr. NorthWales, aye, it's a pretty naked and shameless attempt for them to try and get a bigger role for the themselves in elections.

Pulpstar

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sky news campaign for a leaders debate commission which they have been promoting at every opportunity over the last month or so and received 46,000 votes has hit the buffers as the cabinet office has told Sky there are no plans for this at present

Of course this was Sky and Adam Boulton trying to look after their own interests and you have to ask, with all that is going on now, what made them think the government would be remotely interested

Is that for the GE or the Tory leader contest ?

Big_G_NorthWales

Pulpstar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sky news campaign for a leaders debate commission which they have been promoting at every opportunity over the last month or so and received 46,000 votes has hit the buffers as the cabinet office has told Sky there are no plans for this at present

Of course this was Sky and Adam Boulton trying to look after their own interests and you have to ask, with all that is going on now, what made them think the government would be remotely interested

Is that for the GE or the Tory leader contest ?

Next GE

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Pulpstar, GE.

It's vitally important for a thriving democracy for broadcasters to get guaranteed large audiences.

TrèsDifficile

Parliament Square is roughly 120mx100m, so about 12000sqm

According to Prof Dr G Keith Still, the maximum number that will fit in a crowd safely is 5 per sqm, and it looks like this
http://www.gkstill.com/Support/crowd-density/CrowdDensity-1.html

At that density you couldn't fit many more than 60,000 in Parliament Square.

How many Parliament Squares full were there?

According to the Beeb,

"It was a good natured and friendly march through some of London's most famous streets before the hundreds of thousands of people arrived at Parliament Square.
By that stage the march was so large that not everyone could fit in the square and demonstrators spilled out onto nearby streets."

philiph

TrèsDifficile said:

Parliament Square is roughly 120mx100m, so about 12000sqm

According to Prof Dr G Keith Still, the maximum number that will fit in a crowd safely is 5 per sqm, and it looks like this
http://www.gkstill.com/Support/crowd-density/CrowdDensity-1.html

At that density you couldn't fit many more than 60,000 in Parliament Square.

How many Parliament Squares full were there?

According to the Beeb,

"It was a good natured and friendly march through some of London's most famous streets before the hundreds of thousands of people arrived at Parliament Square.
By that stage the march was so large that not everyone could fit in the square and demonstrators spilled out onto nearby streets."

The only definitive measure of crowds is Donald Trump. He is always right about the attendance figures of enthusiastic and adoring crowds. Bigly right, I am told.

Sounds like a good way to count, although I think a crowd may ignore the safe limit of 5 per sqm by 2 or 3 people.

rcs1000

Sean_F said:

Pulpstar said:

I quite like Corbyn's brexit position actually - well the one he stated to the house yesterday.

I think that the idea of being part of a Customs Union which allows us to negotiate our own trade deals is brilliant. The only trouble is the EU will never agree it.

If we were part of "a" Customs Union, like Turkey, then we would not be signatories to the EU's own trade deals. If we were part of "the" Customs Union, like um now, then we would be signatories to trade agreements, and therefore would be unable to make our own deals.

There is no real argument in favour of the former arrangement. The argument in favour of the second is that it would take us a long time time to replicate the EU's existing assessments, and there simply aren't that many plausible free trade deal countries the EU is not currently talking to. (Unless you include the US, which is I suspect optimistic.)

Pulpstar

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

Pulpstar said:

I quite like Corbyn's brexit position actually - well the one he stated to the house yesterday.

I think that the idea of being part of a Customs Union which allows us to negotiate our own trade deals is brilliant. The only trouble is the EU will never agree it.

If we were part of "a" Customs Union, like Turkey, then we would not be signatories to the EU's own trade deals. If we were part of "the" Customs Union, like um now, then we would be signatories to trade agreements, and therefore would be unable to make our own deals.

There is no real argument in favour of the former arrangement. The argument in favour of the second is that it would take us a long time time to replicate the EU's existing assessments, and there simply aren't that many plausible free trade deal countries the EU is not currently talking to. (Unless you include the US, which is I suspect optimistic.)

Can we be inside THE customs union and outside the single market ?
The Andorra solution 'reverse Norway' I think..

Beverley_C

williamglenn said:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/10/23/only-one-five-brits-think-second-out-eu-referendum/

I think we have to Brexit. Self-immolation seems to be the only way forward on the UK's determined journey to irrelevance. Until Brexit proves to be a lemon it will always be on the agenda.

williamglenn

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

Pulpstar said:

I quite like Corbyn's brexit position actually - well the one he stated to the house yesterday.

I think that the idea of being part of a Customs Union which allows us to negotiate our own trade deals is brilliant. The only trouble is the EU will never agree it.

If we were part of "a" Customs Union, like Turkey, then we would not be signatories to the EU's own trade deals. If we were part of "the" Customs Union, like um now, then we would be signatories to trade agreements, and therefore would be unable to make our own deals.

There is no real argument in favour of the former arrangement. The argument in favour of the second is that it would take us a long time time to replicate the EU's existing assessments, and there simply aren't that many plausible free trade deal countries the EU is not currently talking to. (Unless you include the US, which is I suspect optimistic.)

I don't think that's quite right. If we're in "a" customs union then we apply the same common external tariff as the EU by definition, so we have to give third countries who sign trade deals with the EU exactly the same tariff terms on imports to us. What we don't necessarily get is the same preferential treatment for exports to those third countries. Where there might be scope for divergence is if the customs union is incomplete and doesn't cover all sectors.

Alanbrooke

Let battle commence

EU rejects Italian budget and asks for it to be re submitted.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/eu-kommission-weist-italiens-haushaltsentwurf-zurueck-15852538.html

RobD

Beverley_C said:

williamglenn said:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/10/23/only-one-five-brits-think-second-out-eu-referendum/

I think we have to Brexit. Self-immolation seems to be the only way forward on the UK's determined journey to irrelevance. Until Brexit proves to be a lemon it will always be on the agenda.

You do have to wonder how any country can manage to survive outside of the EU.

Pulpstar

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

williamglenn said:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/10/23/only-one-five-brits-think-second-out-eu-referendum/

I think we have to Brexit. Self-immolation seems to be the only way forward on the UK's determined journey to irrelevance. Until Brexit proves to be a lemon it will always be on the agenda.

You do have to wonder how any country can manage to survive outside of the EU.

Isn't the issue that our economy is completely tied up currently within the EU ?

TheWhiteRabbit

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

Pulpstar said:

I quite like Corbyn's brexit position actually - well the one he stated to the house yesterday.

I think that the idea of being part of a Customs Union which allows us to negotiate our own trade deals is brilliant. The only trouble is the EU will never agree it.

If we were part of "a" Customs Union, like Turkey, then we would not be signatories to the EU's own trade deals. If we were part of "the" Customs Union, like um now, then we would be signatories to trade agreements, and therefore would be unable to make our own deals.

There is no real argument in favour of the former arrangement. The argument in favour of the second is that it would take us a long time time to replicate the EU's existing assessments, and there simply aren't that many plausible free trade deal countries the EU is not currently talking to. (Unless you include the US, which is I suspect optimistic.)

I don't think that's quite right. If we're in "a" customs union then we apply the same common external tariff as the EU by definition, so we have to give third countries who sign trade deals with the EU exactly the same tariff terms on imports to us. What we don't necessarily get is the same preferential treatment for exports to those third countries. Where there might be scope for divergence is if the customs union is incomplete and doesn't cover all sectors.

The Customs Partnership was effectively a version of "a" Customs Union where the CET and internal barriers were split into two issues, rather than one issue as usually.

RobD

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

williamglenn said:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/10/23/only-one-five-brits-think-second-out-eu-referendum/

I think we have to Brexit. Self-immolation seems to be the only way forward on the UK's determined journey to irrelevance. Until Brexit proves to be a lemon it will always be on the agenda.

You do have to wonder how any country can manage to survive outside of the EU.

Isn't the issue that our economy is completely tied up currently within the EU ?

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

williamglenn said:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/10/23/only-one-five-brits-think-second-out-eu-referendum/

I think we have to Brexit. Self-immolation seems to be the only way forward on the UK's determined journey to irrelevance. Until Brexit proves to be a lemon it will always be on the agenda.

You do have to wonder how any country can manage to survive outside of the EU.

Isn't the issue that our economy is completely tied up currently within the EU ?

I thought it was a declining fraction?

Pulpstar

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

williamglenn said:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/10/23/only-one-five-brits-think-second-out-eu-referendum/

I think we have to Brexit. Self-immolation seems to be the only way forward on the UK's determined journey to irrelevance. Until Brexit proves to be a lemon it will always be on the agenda.

You do have to wonder how any country can manage to survive outside of the EU.

Isn't the issue that our economy is completely tied up currently within the EU ?

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

williamglenn said:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/10/23/only-one-five-brits-think-second-out-eu-referendum/

I think we have to Brexit. Self-immolation seems to be the only way forward on the UK's determined journey to irrelevance. Until Brexit proves to be a lemon it will always be on the agenda.

You do have to wonder how any country can manage to survive outside of the EU.

Isn't the issue that our economy is completely tied up currently within the EU ?

I thought it was a declining fraction?

It is still an Alot monster amount.

Sean_F

Alanbrooke said:

Let battle commence

EU rejects Italian budget and asks for it to be re submitted.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/eu-kommission-weist-italiens-haushaltsentwurf-zurueck-15852538.html

What sanctions does the EU have against Italy if they go ahead with the budget?

RobD

I

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

williamglenn said:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/10/23/only-one-five-brits-think-second-out-eu-referendum/

I think we have to Brexit. Self-immolation seems to be the only way forward on the UK's determined journey to irrelevance. Until Brexit proves to be a lemon it will always be on the agenda.

You do have to wonder how any country can manage to survive outside of the EU.

Isn't the issue that our economy is completely tied up currently within the EU ?

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

williamglenn said:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/10/23/only-one-five-brits-think-second-out-eu-referendum/

I think we have to Brexit. Self-immolation seems to be the only way forward on the UK's determined journey to irrelevance. Until Brexit proves to be a lemon it will always be on the agenda.

You do have to wonder how any country can manage to survive outside of the EU.

Isn't the issue that our economy is completely tied up currently within the EU ?

I thought it was a declining fraction?

It is still an Alot monster amount.

And I suspect alot of that will continue after Britain leaves the EU

Big_G_NorthWales

Alanbrooke said:

Let battle commence

EU rejects Italian budget and asks for it to be re submitted.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/eu-kommission-weist-italiens-haushaltsentwurf-zurueck-15852538.html

European stocks falling as Italy stands firm against Junckers

Italy tells EU no plan B as EU demands budget revisions

williamglenn

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

williamglenn said:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/10/23/only-one-five-brits-think-second-out-eu-referendum/

I think we have to Brexit. Self-immolation seems to be the only way forward on the UK's determined journey to irrelevance. Until Brexit proves to be a lemon it will always be on the agenda.

You do have to wonder how any country can manage to survive outside of the EU.

Isn't the issue that our economy is completely tied up currently within the EU ?

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

williamglenn said:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/10/23/only-one-five-brits-think-second-out-eu-referendum/

I think we have to Brexit. Self-immolation seems to be the only way forward on the UK's determined journey to irrelevance. Until Brexit proves to be a lemon it will always be on the agenda.

You do have to wonder how any country can manage to survive outside of the EU.

Isn't the issue that our economy is completely tied up currently within the EU ?

I thought it was a declining fraction?

No, I'm pretty sure we're still 100% inside the EU.

Pulpstar

Sean_F said:

Alanbrooke said:

Let battle commence

EU rejects Italian budget and asks for it to be re submitted.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/eu-kommission-weist-italiens-haushaltsentwurf-zurueck-15852538.html

What sanctions does the EU have against Italy if they go ahead with the budget?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3Kvu6Kgp88

Beverley_C

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

williamglenn said:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/10/23/only-one-five-brits-think-second-out-eu-referendum/

I think we have to Brexit. Self-immolation seems to be the only way forward on the UK's determined journey to irrelevance. Until Brexit proves to be a lemon it will always be on the agenda.

You do have to wonder how any country can manage to survive outside of the EU.

Isn't the issue that our economy is completely tied up currently within the EU ?

We have spent 40 years integrating our economy into the EU. The Brexiteers think that we can leave in less than two years with no plan thought-out in advance and zero preparation

Can you honestly not see where the problem is?

Alanbrooke

Sean_F said:

Alanbrooke said:

Let battle commence

EU rejects Italian budget and asks for it to be re submitted.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/eu-kommission-weist-italiens-haushaltsentwurf-zurueck-15852538.html

What sanctions does the EU have against Italy if they go ahead with the budget?

they can collapse the Euro to spite Salvini after that errr......

RobD

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

williamglenn said:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/10/23/only-one-five-brits-think-second-out-eu-referendum/

I think we have to Brexit. Self-immolation seems to be the only way forward on the UK's determined journey to irrelevance. Until Brexit proves to be a lemon it will always be on the agenda.

You do have to wonder how any country can manage to survive outside of the EU.

Isn't the issue that our economy is completely tied up currently within the EU ?

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

williamglenn said:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/10/23/only-one-five-brits-think-second-out-eu-referendum/

I think we have to Brexit. Self-immolation seems to be the only way forward on the UK's determined journey to irrelevance. Until Brexit proves to be a lemon it will always be on the agenda.

You do have to wonder how any country can manage to survive outside of the EU.

Isn't the issue that our economy is completely tied up currently within the EU ?

I thought it was a declining fraction?

No, I'm pretty sure we're still 100% inside the EU.

100% is definitely not tied up with the EU, unless their influence spreads a lot further than I imagined.

Alanbrooke

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Alanbrooke said:

Let battle commence

EU rejects Italian budget and asks for it to be re submitted.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/eu-kommission-weist-italiens-haushaltsentwurf-zurueck-15852538.html

European stocks falling as Italy stands firm against Junckers

Italy tells EU no plan B as EU demands budget revisions

The Italians should says thanks, then resubmit a budget at 2.5% deficit instead of 2.4%

RobD

Beverley_C said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

williamglenn said:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/10/23/only-one-five-brits-think-second-out-eu-referendum/

I think we have to Brexit. Self-immolation seems to be the only way forward on the UK's determined journey to irrelevance. Until Brexit proves to be a lemon it will always be on the agenda.

You do have to wonder how any country can manage to survive outside of the EU.

Isn't the issue that our economy is completely tied up currently within the EU ?

We have spent 40 years integrating our economy into the EU. The Brexiteers think that we can leave in less than two years with no plan thought-out in advance and zero preparation

Can you honestly not see where the problem is?

Better out now rather than after a further 20 years of integration without democratic consent.

Recidivist

TrèsDifficile said:

Parliament Square is roughly 120mx100m, so about 12000sqm

According to Prof Dr G Keith Still, the maximum number that will fit in a crowd safely is 5 per sqm, and it looks like this
http://www.gkstill.com/Support/crowd-density/CrowdDensity-1.html

At that density you couldn't fit many more than 60,000 in Parliament Square.

How many Parliament Squares full were there?

According to the Beeb,

"It was a good natured and friendly march through some of London's most famous streets before the hundreds of thousands of people arrived at Parliament Square.
By that stage the march was so large that not everyone could fit in the square and demonstrators spilled out onto nearby streets."

I was in the middle of Piccadily when the word came back that Parliament Square was already full. The crowd was packed tight as far as I could see either way. Piccadily is pretty wide and there were still crowds of people in Hyde Park at this point. 10 more Parliament Squares would not be a wild estimate.

Pulpstar

Beverley_C said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

williamglenn said:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/10/23/only-one-five-brits-think-second-out-eu-referendum/

I think we have to Brexit. Self-immolation seems to be the only way forward on the UK's determined journey to irrelevance. Until Brexit proves to be a lemon it will always be on the agenda.

You do have to wonder how any country can manage to survive outside of the EU.

Isn't the issue that our economy is completely tied up currently within the EU ?

We have spent 40 years integrating our economy into the EU. The Brexiteers think that we can leave in less than two years with no plan thought-out in advance and zero preparation

Can you honestly not see where the problem is?

Yes, May or Corbyn (They're identical for the next few years..) compromise is a good next step.

Beverley_C

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

williamglenn said:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/10/23/only-one-five-brits-think-second-out-eu-referendum/

I think we have to Brexit. Self-immolation seems to be the only way forward on the UK's determined journey to irrelevance. Until Brexit proves to be a lemon it will always be on the agenda.

You do have to wonder how any country can manage to survive outside of the EU.

Isn't the issue that our economy is completely tied up currently within the EU ?

We have spent 40 years integrating our economy into the EU. The Brexiteers think that we can leave in less than two years with no plan thought-out in advance and zero preparation

Can you honestly not see where the problem is?

Better out now rather than after a further 20 years of integration without democratic consent.

*shrugs*

logical_song

TrèsDifficile said:

Parliament Square is roughly 120mx100m, so about 12000sqm

According to Prof Dr G Keith Still, the maximum number that will fit in a crowd safely is 5 per sqm, and it looks like this
http://www.gkstill.com/Support/crowd-density/CrowdDensity-1.html

At that density you couldn't fit many more than 60,000 in Parliament Square.

How many Parliament Squares full were there?

According to the Beeb,

"It was a good natured and friendly march through some of London's most famous streets before the hundreds of thousands of people arrived at Parliament Square.
By that stage the march was so large that not everyone could fit in the square and demonstrators spilled out onto nearby streets."

Surely Parliament Square was only the destination, there appear to be a huge number of people in this video.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2018/oct/20/peoples-vote-march-london-second-referendum-brexit-live

volcanopete

Thankfully satire is not dead

http://newsthump.com/2018/10/23/titanic-captain-asks-passengers-to-focus-on-95-of-crossing-safely-made-rather-than-massive-fcking-iceberg-ahead/?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=socialnetwork

Big_G_NorthWales

Beverley_C said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

williamglenn said:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/10/23/only-one-five-brits-think-second-out-eu-referendum/

I think we have to Brexit. Self-immolation seems to be the only way forward on the UK's determined journey to irrelevance. Until Brexit proves to be a lemon it will always be on the agenda.

You do have to wonder how any country can manage to survive outside of the EU.

Isn't the issue that our economy is completely tied up currently within the EU ?

We have spent 40 years integrating our economy into the EU. The Brexiteers think that we can leave in less than two years with no plan thought-out in advance and zero preparation

Can you honestly not see where the problem is?

I think Boris and David Davis proved they hadn't a clue when they were in the cabinet.

The problem as far as I can see is that none in the ERG can do detail or provide laser thinking to separate us.

To be fair, listening to TM she really does know the subject and runs rings around the ultras

kjh

currystar said:

kjh said:

I just couldn't answer the question. If neither had been PM it would be easy. I just can't envisage Corbyn as PM. I just can't. Whereas if May hadn't become PM she would look like she could make a reasonable fist of it. But she hasn't.

Did you watch her in Parliament yesterday? I thought her knowledge of the brief and her ability to answer questions was exceptional. I know I would be hopeless at it. I know she is not everyone's cup of tea and her style and methods can be a bit odd but I think she deserves enormous credit for her ability to battle on despite being in an impossible postion where she can please no one. I think the public are beginning to recognise her qualities. I also thought the dancing queen moment was inspired.

No I didn't and of course she has been given a hospital pass, but still there have been some really awful moments. And no I couldn't do it either, but then neither of us are putting ourselves up for the job (well I'm guessing from your comment you're not)

rcs1000

Sean_F said:

Alanbrooke said:

Let battle commence

EU rejects Italian budget and asks for it to be re submitted.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/eu-kommission-weist-italiens-haushaltsentwurf-zurueck-15852538.html

What sanctions does the EU have against Italy if they go ahead with the budget?

Investors only buy Italian government debt because it is implicitly guaranteed by the ECB.

Big_G_NorthWales

Alanbrooke said:

Sean_F said:

Alanbrooke said:

Let battle commence

EU rejects Italian budget and asks for it to be re submitted.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/eu-kommission-weist-italiens-haushaltsentwurf-zurueck-15852538.html

What sanctions does the EU have against Italy if they go ahead with the budget?

they can collapse the Euro to spite Salvini after that errr......

The fear is for Italian banks and as far as I know the liability of the German banks, ( but I stand to be corrected)

Pulpstar

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

Alanbrooke said:

Let battle commence

EU rejects Italian budget and asks for it to be re submitted.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/eu-kommission-weist-italiens-haushaltsentwurf-zurueck-15852538.html

What sanctions does the EU have against Italy if they go ahead with the budget?

Investors only buy Italian government debt because it is implicitly guaranteed by the ECB.

If the ECB removes the guarantee wouldn't it ultimately fall out in the currency though ?

Alanbrooke

Irish government finally takes action of Tuam baby scandal

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/tuam-babies-remains-of-hundreds-of-children-feared-buried-in-mass-grave-to-be-exhumed-37450152.html

this whole story is just appalling

kjh

Re crowd numbers:

Why is thought the police under estimate numbers? I can't see why they would be biased or are they just awful at it?

Why did they not give an estimate this time? Have they stopped doing so or was it just too big to give a sensible number?

Did they provide a number for the Iraq and Countryside march?

David_Evershed

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Nick, Schrodinger's Backstop.

Heisenberg's uncertainty principle

stodge

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I think Boris and David Davis proved they hadn't a clue when they were in the cabinet.

The problem as far as I can see is that none in the ERG can do detail or provide laser thinking to separate us.

To be fair, listening to TM she really does know the subject and runs rings around the ultras

To be fair, Theresa May has a formidable support network of advisers and senior civil servants so, like every recent PM, she sounds on top of her brief.

As I've said on here before, she is entirely dedicated and works very hard but then so have a lot of other Prime Ministers (but not all).

I'm no supporter - she was all the charisma of the salad in yesterday's sandwich and none of the empathy. I'm sure she's wonderful in private but she seems awkward in public and for all your gushing praise about "dancing queen", it just looked embarrassing and feeble.

There's no one else better in your Party and the alternative is Corbyn/McDonnell and they are the two key factors in her survival to which you can add the other factor all politicians need and that is luck.

For now, she has the luck and it keeps her in office though whether she's actually in power is perhaps another question.

Alanbrooke

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Alanbrooke said:

Sean_F said:

Alanbrooke said:

Let battle commence

EU rejects Italian budget and asks for it to be re submitted.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/eu-kommission-weist-italiens-haushaltsentwurf-zurueck-15852538.html

What sanctions does the EU have against Italy if they go ahead with the budget?

they can collapse the Euro to spite Salvini after that errr......

The fear is for Italian banks and as far as I know the liability of the German banks, ( but I stand to be corrected)

the threat is the Italian banks, but if they let Italy;s banking sector crash the rest of the eurozone might well follow.

David_Evershed

England 122 for 7 in reply to Sri Lanka 366

Big_G_NorthWales

stodge said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I think Boris and David Davis proved they hadn't a clue when they were in the cabinet.

The problem as far as I can see is that none in the ERG can do detail or provide laser thinking to separate us.

To be fair, listening to TM she really does know the subject and runs rings around the ultras

To be fair, Theresa May has a formidable support network of advisers and senior civil servants so, like every recent PM, she sounds on top of her brief.

As I've said on here before, she is entirely dedicated and works very hard but then so have a lot of other Prime Ministers (but not all).

I'm no supporter - she was all the charisma of the salad in yesterday's sandwich and none of the empathy. I'm sure she's wonderful in private but she seems awkward in public and for all your gushing praise about "dancing queen", it just looked embarrassing and feeble.

There's no one else better in your Party and the alternative is Corbyn/McDonnell and they are the two key factors in her survival to which you can add the other factor all politicians need and that is luck.

For now, she has the luck and it keeps her in office though whether she's actually in power is perhaps another question.

Not sure I think she has the luck to carry this poisoned chalice but I agree that nobody in the party would be able to see increasing personal ratings and poll leads. I think you would find outside the bubble her dancing queen was quite well received

anothernick

Recidivist said:

I was in the middle of Piccadily when the word came back that Parliament Square was already full. The crowd was packed tight as far as I could see either way. Piccadily is pretty wide and there were still crowds of people in Hyde Park at this point. 10 more Parliament Squares would not be a wild estimate.

No. There were many, many people. So many, in fact, that the Brexiteers are anxiously trying to find ways of rubbishing the numbers.

Nemtynakht

Big_G_NorthWales said:

currystar said:

kjh said:

I just couldn't answer the question. If neither had been PM it would be easy. I just can't envisage Corbyn as PM. I just can't. Whereas if May hadn't become PM she would look like she could make a reasonable fist of it. But she hasn't.

Did you watch her in Parliament yesterday? I thought her knowledge of the brief and her ability to answer questions was exceptional. I know I would be hopeless at it. I know she is not everyone's cup of tea and her style and methods can be a bit odd but I think she deserves enormous credit for her ability to battle on despite being in an impossible postion where she can please no one. I think the public are beginning to recognise her qualities. I also thought the dancing queen moment was inspired.

For someone under the pressure she is it is quite remarkable how she comes out fighting and with a knowledge of her subject far more detailed than those opposing her. The weekend abuse she suffered has unquestionably damaged ERG and sustained her and for all her faults and inability to communicate the public respect her dedication to her role and if she was forced out, I believe the party would see a voter backlash against the party. Dancing queen was inspired

Yes despite the mauling she has had in the media and comedy shows, I think that the dancing in Africa (being polite and joining in) and dancing queen at conference (self deprecation) have actually improved her in my opinion.

Recidivist

kjh said:

Re crowd numbers:

Why is thought the police under estimate numbers? I can't see why they would be biased or are they just awful at it?

Why did they not give an estimate this time? Have they stopped doing so or was it just too big to give a sensible number?

Did they provide a number for the Iraq and Countryside march?

I imagine the police have to justify their overtime bill on most marches, and also build their experience for how many to have on hand for the next one. They are used to handling non-political crowds as well so I would imagine that they have a pretty good idea.

The one last Saturday must have foxed them because way more people turned up than anyone expected - there were nowhere near as many stewards as you'd expect and things like stickers and leaflets ran out really early. Had there been any trouble the boys in blue might have struggled because there really weren't many of them either compared to protesters. There were also large groups roaming around away from the advertised route.

I think the police simply gave up trying to count because it was so big.

CD13

I've asked this before and no one has ever answered, but why are people still fussing about a hard border in NI. It's always been fluid.

Who wants a hard border? The UK doesn't and Ireland don't. If the EU want a hard border, tell them to build it. Varadkar daren't build one - he'd be out of his ear. Fine Gael may be tribal but there are limits. So will the EU (who?) send in an army to build it?

Why doesn't May just call their bluff? It's nothing to do with us what the EU want anymore, we're leaving.

TrèsDifficile

My favourite "Stop Brexit"* March placard;


*"People's Vote" is just dishonest. And prefixing it with a hash tag makes me embarrassed for the hash tagger

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/1054747691627003904

kjh

Recidivist said:

kjh said:

Re crowd numbers:

Why is thought the police under estimate numbers? I can't see why they would be biased or are they just awful at it?

Why did they not give an estimate this time? Have they stopped doing so or was it just too big to give a sensible number?

Did they provide a number for the Iraq and Countryside march?

I imagine the police have to justify their overtime bill on most marches, and also build their experience for how many to have on hand for the next one. They are used to handling non-political crowds as well so I would imagine that they have a pretty good idea.

The one last Saturday must have foxed them because way more people turned up than anyone expected - there were nowhere near as many stewards as you'd expect and things like stickers and leaflets ran out really early. Had there been any trouble the boys in blue might have struggled because there really weren't many of them either compared to protesters. There were also large groups roaming around away from the advertised route.

I think the police simply gave up trying to count because it was so big.

Wouldn't that mean they would over estimate rather than under estimate normally then or is it a myth that they under estimate?

david_herdson

anothernick said:

Recidivist said:

I was in the middle of Piccadily when the word came back that Parliament Square was already full. The crowd was packed tight as far as I could see either way. Piccadily is pretty wide and there were still crowds of people in Hyde Park at this point. 10 more Parliament Squares would not be a wild estimate.

No. There were many, many people. So many, in fact, that the Brexiteers are anxiously trying to find ways of rubbishing the numbers.

Not really. Outside of pbc, I've not seen any discussion of the numbers since the weekend. The event is over and as was entirely predictable, has made absolutely no difference. In terms of relative weight, a handful of Tory MPs count for more at the moment than several hundred thousand Remainers marching through London. As Jim Hacker said, the MPs can get rid of the PM this week; it'll be years before the electorate get the same chance.

Beverley_C

kjh said:

Re crowd numbers:

Why is thought the police under estimate numbers? I can't see why they would be biased or are they just awful at it?

Why did they not give an estimate this time? Have they stopped doing so or was it just too big to give a sensible number?

Did they provide a number for the Iraq and Countryside march?

Is it any wonder that the Catholic church lost its grip and the Republic is more secular?

Having said that Norn Iron cured me of religion in all its forms.

stodge

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Not sure I think she has the luck to carry this poisoned chalice but I agree that nobody in the party would be able to see increasing personal ratings and poll leads. I think you would find outside the bubble her dancing queen was quite well received

My first observation is she, or rather her sense of duty, decided to take on the chalice in July 2016. She could have walked away but didn't and due to the ineptitude of her opponents (and that was perhaps a real sign of things to come) she found herself alone on the battlefield.

We all have our "bubbles" - in yours, the "dancing queen" was a well received sign of humanity whereas in mine, it was a cringing embarrassment up there with William Hague at Notting Hill Carnival.

david_herdson

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

Alanbrooke said:

Let battle commence

EU rejects Italian budget and asks for it to be re submitted.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/eu-kommission-weist-italiens-haushaltsentwurf-zurueck-15852538.html

What sanctions does the EU have against Italy if they go ahead with the budget?

Investors only buy Italian government debt because it is implicitly guaranteed by the ECB.

Investors would still buy Italian debt if it wasn't guaranteed by the ECB (as they did before it joined the Euro). They'd just demand higher interest.

Anorak

Takes the biscuit...
https://twitter.com/cwjreynolds/status/1054752502913134593

rcs1000

Re Italy and the Eurozone: can I recommend everyone rewatch this excellent video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kc0FwoIsDMI

kjh

Beverley_C said:

kjh said:

Re crowd numbers:

Why is thought the police under estimate numbers? I can't see why they would be biased or are they just awful at it?

Why did they not give an estimate this time? Have they stopped doing so or was it just too big to give a sensible number?

Did they provide a number for the Iraq and Countryside march?

Is it any wonder that the Catholic church lost its grip and the Republic is more secular?

Having said that Norn Iron cured me of religion in all its forms.

OK that lost me.

williamglenn

Anorak said:

Takes the biscuit...

Crackers!

AllyPally_Rob

CD13 said:

I've asked this before and no one has ever answered, but why are people still fussing about a hard border in NI. It's always been fluid.

Who wants a hard border? The UK doesn't and Ireland don't. If the EU want a hard border, tell them to build it. Varadkar daren't build one - he'd be out of his ear. Fine Gael may be tribal but there are limits. So will the EU (who?) send in an army to build it?

Why doesn't May just call their bluff? It's nothing to do with us what the EU want anymore, we're leaving.

PB Groundhog Day wouldn't be complete without this argument getting trotted out...

Big_G_NorthWales

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/1054747691627003904

It amazes me why we should listen to anyone commenting on the negotiations.

I understand they are back in the 'tunnel' and only when I hear the EU and TM release official statements on progress or otherwise will I take note

Pulpstar

I make it hour 40 of May's 72 hour killing zone.

Recidivist

kjh said:

Recidivist said:

kjh said:

Re crowd numbers:

Why is thought the police under estimate numbers? I can't see why they would be biased or are they just awful at it?

Why did they not give an estimate this time? Have they stopped doing so or was it just too big to give a sensible number?

Did they provide a number for the Iraq and Countryside march?

I imagine the police have to justify their overtime bill on most marches, and also build their experience for how many to have on hand for the next one. They are used to handling non-political crowds as well so I would imagine that they have a pretty good idea.

The one last Saturday must have foxed them because way more people turned up than anyone expected - there were nowhere near as many stewards as you'd expect and things like stickers and leaflets ran out really early. Had there been any trouble the boys in blue might have struggled because there really weren't many of them either compared to protesters. There were also large groups roaming around away from the advertised route.

I think the police simply gave up trying to count because it was so big.

Wouldn't that mean they would over estimate rather than under estimate normally then or is it a myth that they under estimate?

I would have thought accuracy would be the aim. Underestimate and you don't have enough manpower next time. Overestimate and the public notice idle officers who should be elsewhere nabbing rogues.