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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay’s great current strength is that there’s little convictio

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited October 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay’s great current strength is that there’s little conviction that anyone else could do better

So another day of Theresa May’s leadership begins and no doubt she will be under pressure yet again by her party and maybe even the official opposition about her stance and approach to Brexit. Later she’s facing the Conservative backbench 1922 committee of which there was some overblown talk over the weekend off this being a “show trial.” That of itself illustrated the schism within the party.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited October 2018
    Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit!
  • https://www.ft.com/content/f4b67802-d6b4-11e8-a854-33d6f82e62f8

    "The OBR thinks the cash size of economy is bigger than official figures currently show and therefore tax revenues are stronger. So far this year, official records indicate the total receipts flowing into the Treasury are 4.4 per cent stronger than last year. The OBR predicted in March they would be up by only 3 per cent."

    We called it guys
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Not sure why anyone is taking CR's views on patriotism seriously. A few days ago he was getting very worked up about how unpatriotic lefties are for not wanting to start the British Empire back up.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547

    Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit!

    Mayday!
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit!

    Mayday!
    Just setting the mood. What is the thread header about?
  • Could somebody please post-some betting tips for a change?

    I'll start the ball rolling. Republicans to hold the House at 7/4 on Ladbrokes.

    RCP showing the Dems with only a 5 seat lead (205-200) in the House and polling of the swing seats looking more favourable to the Republicans in recent days. Plus should be some positive economic data just before the election.
  • Could somebody please post-some betting tips for a change?

    I'll start the ball rolling. Republicans to hold the House at 7/4 on Ladbrokes.

    RCP showing the Dems with only a 5 seat lead (205-200) in the House and polling of the swing seats looking more favourable to the Republicans in recent days. Plus should be some positive economic data just before the election.

    If you want something to sit down with, you can look at Ireland's election on Friday. Clearly Higgins will be re-appointed, but there are markets on how much and how the other candidates fare.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    FPT: Mr. rkrkrk is closest with Hephaestus.

    The answer is Vulcan. Vulcanisation was (maybe still is) used on natural rubber to make car tyres.

    Who, in Greek terms, was Saturn named after?
  • Could somebody please post-some betting tips for a change?

    I'll start the ball rolling. Republicans to hold the House at 7/4 on Ladbrokes.

    RCP showing the Dems with only a 5 seat lead (205-200) in the House and polling of the swing seats looking more favourable to the Republicans in recent days. Plus should be some positive economic data just before the election.

    If you want something to sit down with, you can look at Ireland's election on Friday. Clearly Higgins will be re-appointed, but there are markets on how much and how the other candidates fare.
    Thanks, will take a look. At last, something not Brexit-related!!
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    FPT: Mr. rkrkrk is closest with Hephaestus.

    The answer is Vulcan. Vulcanisation was (maybe still is) used on natural rubber to make car tyres.

    Who, in Greek terms, was Saturn named after?

    Zeus's dad. One of the Titans.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    FPT: Mr. rkrkrk is closest with Hephaestus.

    The answer is Vulcan. Vulcanisation was (maybe still is) used on natural rubber to make car tyres.

    Who, in Greek terms, was Saturn named after?

    Zeus
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Could somebody please post-some betting tips for a change?

    I'll start the ball rolling. Republicans to hold the House at 7/4 on Ladbrokes.

    RCP showing the Dems with only a 5 seat lead (205-200) in the House and polling of the swing seats looking more favourable to the Republicans in recent days. Plus should be some positive economic data just before the election.

    I'll take 538 over RCP
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    Could somebody please post-some betting tips for a change?

    I'll start the ball rolling. Republicans to hold the House at 7/4 on Ladbrokes.

    RCP showing the Dems with only a 5 seat lead (205-200) in the House and polling of the swing seats looking more favourable to the Republicans in recent days. Plus should be some positive economic data just before the election.

    Lay TM to be gone this year (as per previous thread). 20% return in just over 2 months.

    And - I've gone big on Julian Castro for next President. He's definitely running, and I got on at between 150 and 200/1.
  • I've said it before, but it needs repeating. Brexit has driven all of you absolutely batshit insane. Any site that routinely has posters calling others xenophobes, racists, traitors, quislings and the like is on a downwards spiral.
    It's a strange day indeed when I think I'm the sanest person in the room.
  • Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit!

    Good to see you finally agreeing :lol:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Could somebody please post-some betting tips for a change?

    I'll start the ball rolling. Republicans to hold the House at 7/4 on Ladbrokes.

    RCP showing the Dems with only a 5 seat lead (205-200) in the House and polling of the swing seats looking more favourable to the Republicans in recent days. Plus should be some positive economic data just before the election.

    14.8% probability according to 538 which suggests 13-2 as the correct price. The GOP will gain North Dakota in the Senate, and that's what Trump will highlight on election night - but I think the Democrats are well in control of the house.
    Decision Desk gives 6.8% probability !
    The Cook political report is more favourable, but the Dems only need 9/30 'toss up' seats.
    I think 7-4 is too skinny a price in all honesty, would consider perhaps at 5-1 or so.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    The curse of the new thread.. FPT

    Understandably most of the commentary surrounding the question of the timing of Theresa May's exit from Number Ten has focused on the Brexit negotiations and the perception that her leadership is a drag on Conservative electoral prospects. The imminent budget may also become a factor.

    The expectation is that Hammond will explain where he is finding £20bn for the NHS and that this would include tax increases. Tax increases that are not popular on the backbenches.

    The better than expected public borrowing figures reduce the necessity for tax rises only enough to make them more of a problem to reconcile with ideological opponents. However, quite apart from the continuing deficit there is a political imperative to increase taxes to fund increased NHS spending which will put May and Hammond on a collision course with their own MPs.

    There is no easily definable upper limit to NHS spending. This does not mean one should never increase NHS spending, but it does mean there is always a case for increasing it further so the political challenge for the Tories is to win the argument that they are spending as much as is reasonably possible on the NHS.

    A tax increase that people will notice is the best way to make that argument. It says, "We have increased taxes to fund the NHS as much as possible, but there's not even a moderately difficult source of money to fund further increases, even though we wish it were otherwise."

    Without a noticeable tax increase a more persuasive argument could be, "Even the Tories have admitted the NHS needs more money, but they won't give it the money it deserves because they don't really want to, even though it wouldn't be difficult."

    This is the political case for an increase in employee National Insurance contributions in the coming budget. Might it be the final straw for some of May's critics?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    rkrkrk said:


    Lay TM to be gone this year (as per previous thread). 20% return in just over 2 months.

    I went in big on this when is was a 10% return lol. Feeling a bit ill about that ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842


    This is the political case for an increase in employee National Insurance contributions in the coming budget. Might it be the final straw for some of May's critics?

    Do us PAYErs not suffer enough ?!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    FPT: Mr. rkrkrk is closest with Hephaestus.

    The answer is Vulcan. Vulcanisation was (maybe still is) used on natural rubber to make car tyres.

    Who, in Greek terms, was Saturn named after?

    ok

    when Fritgern crossed the Danube in 376 did he bring more or less Gothic warriors with him than there protestors in London last weekend ?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092

    https://www.ft.com/content/f4b67802-d6b4-11e8-a854-33d6f82e62f8

    "The OBR thinks the cash size of economy is bigger than official figures currently show and therefore tax revenues are stronger. So far this year, official records indicate the total receipts flowing into the Treasury are 4.4 per cent stronger than last year. The OBR predicted in March they would be up by only 3 per cent."

    We called it guys

    "The OBR thinks the cash size of economy is bigger than official figures currently show and therefore tax revenues are stronger."
    This looks like a non sequitur at first glance.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    I've said it before, but it needs repeating. Brexit has driven all of you absolutely batshit insane. Any site that routinely has posters calling others xenophobes, racists, traitors, quislings and the like is on a downwards spiral.
    It's a strange day indeed when I think I'm the sanest person in the room.

    You need to become a racist, xenophobic, quisling traitor and blend in with the rest of us.

    You know you want to .....
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    edited October 2018
    Re @ydoethur’s comment fpt re a possible bust up between Italy and the EU overthe former’s budget. I agree that it could raise the likelihood of a No Deal but there is also the possibility that the EU might wish to avoid having a financial crisis at a time when its access to its main financial centre may be under question and when there are already concerns (expressed by the BoE and the FCA) about existing financial contracts with EU-based entities.

    I think the possibility of a financial crisis occurring is probably a greater threat than a blockade of Calais. I hope I am wrong though!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Cyclefree said:

    Re @ydoethur’s comment fpt re a possible bust up between Italy and the EU overthe former’s budget. I agree that it could raise the likelihood of a No Deal but there is also the possibility that the EU might wish to avoid having a financial crisis at a time when its access to its main financial centre may be under question and when there are already concerns (expressed by the BoE and the FCA) about existing financial contracts with EU-based entities.

    I think the possibility of a financial crisis occurring is probably a greater threat than a blockade of Calais. I hope I am wrong though!

    based on the probabilities I dont think you are, it all now depends on how things are handled at both ends.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Pulpstar said:


    This is the political case for an increase in employee National Insurance contributions in the coming budget. Might it be the final straw for some of May's critics?

    Do us PAYErs not suffer enough ?!
    I'm not saying that economically it makes the most sense, but PAYErs are those most likely to vote Labour, so politically it makes the case best.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547

    Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit!

    Mayday!
    Just setting the mood. What is the thread header about?
    Doesn't matter, all the comment will be from racist xenophobes and traitors ranting about Brexit.

    I've just read the NAO summary of their report on border preparedness.

    It's laughable.

    *weeps*

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,587

    FPT: Mr. rkrkrk is closest with Hephaestus.

    The answer is Vulcan. Vulcanisation was (maybe still is) used on natural rubber to make car tyres.

    Who, in Greek terms, was Saturn named after?

    You could ask the defence secretary.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,587

    FPT: Mr. rkrkrk is closest with Hephaestus.

    The answer is Vulcan. Vulcanisation was (maybe still is) used on natural rubber to make car tyres.

    Who, in Greek terms, was Saturn named after?

    ok

    when Fritgern crossed the Danube in 376 did he bring more or less...
    Fewer !!
  • geoffw said:

    https://www.ft.com/content/f4b67802-d6b4-11e8-a854-33d6f82e62f8

    "The OBR thinks the cash size of economy is bigger than official figures currently show and therefore tax revenues are stronger. So far this year, official records indicate the total receipts flowing into the Treasury are 4.4 per cent stronger than last year. The OBR predicted in March they would be up by only 3 per cent."

    We called it guys

    "The OBR thinks the cash size of economy is bigger than official figures currently show and therefore tax revenues are stronger."
    This looks like a non sequitur at first glance.
    It just needs a bit of unpacking.

    The ONS collects tax data as received. The OBR, by contrast, uses growth estimates to model what tax receipts should be. In principle, this means it is less affected by variations in the data (be they seasonal, one-off, etc.) but in practice what it seems to suggest is that issues recording growth are throwing out the OBR's forecast of tax receipts.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    Plutocrat, Vulcan, Cronos - catching up.
  • Nigelb said:

    FPT: Mr. rkrkrk is closest with Hephaestus.

    The answer is Vulcan. Vulcanisation was (maybe still is) used on natural rubber to make car tyres.

    Who, in Greek terms, was Saturn named after?

    ok

    when Fritgern crossed the Danube in 376 did he bring more or less...
    Fewer !!
    I rate grammar nazis lower than posters who use xenophobe, racist, traitor or quisling!!!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Nigelb said:

    FPT: Mr. rkrkrk is closest with Hephaestus.

    The answer is Vulcan. Vulcanisation was (maybe still is) used on natural rubber to make car tyres.

    Who, in Greek terms, was Saturn named after?

    ok

    when Fritgern crossed the Danube in 376 did he bring more or less...
    Fewer !!
    it was a carefully constructed question aimed at upsetting grammarians :-)
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited October 2018

    I've said it before, but it needs repeating. Brexit has driven all of you absolutely batshit insane. Any site that routinely has posters calling others xenophobes, racists, traitors, quislings and the like is on a downwards spiral.
    It's a strange day indeed when I think I'm the sanest person in the room.

    You need to become a racist, xenophobic, quisling traitor and blend in with the rest of us.

    You know you want to .....
    I don't think anyone with a foreign flag on their avatar should even get to post on here (and I bet those are Italian shoes, if you could believe such a thing). True Brits English only!
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    Incidentally, talking about ancient languages and mythologies in the present, some time ago I stumbled on the fact that "mortgage" means "dead hand".

    Which I find quite evocative.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,587

    Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit!

    Mayday!
    Just setting the mood. What is the thread header about?
    Doesn't matter, all the comment will be from racist xenophobes and traitors ranting about Brexit.

    I've just read the NAO summary of their report on border preparedness.

    It's laughable.

    *weeps*

    I think the line is that if we go out without a deal, it's all the remainers' fault, so the consequences don't matter.
  • Could somebody please post-some betting tips for a change?

    I'll start the ball rolling. Republicans to hold the House at 7/4 on Ladbrokes.

    RCP showing the Dems with only a 5 seat lead (205-200) in the House and polling of the swing seats looking more favourable to the Republicans in recent days. Plus should be some positive economic data just before the election.

    I'll take 538 over RCP
    Even after 2016 :) ?

    Thanks for all the tips, will take a look at the May and Castro ones, although I think Trump will win in 2020...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    FPT

    “Cant get medicines” is project fear redux

    There are complexities and disadvantages (to both the EU and the U.K.) of us not being in the EMA so it’s a shame that silly wankers have stopped a pragmatic solution

    Key ones:

    1. we need to built up MHRA competencies - we’ve got a very good starting position already
    2. EMA approved drugs are not approved in the U.K. - just grandfather them FFS
    3. Need for an EU located QC/QA function - yes, needs to be put in place but not that expensive. Unnecessary duplication.
    4. EMA approved manufacturing - we are already moving to mutual recognition of FDA and EMA inspections so it should be fine
    5. Borders - yes in theory. But these are lightweight goods so can be flown in and fast tracked if really necessary
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Anorak said:

    I've said it before, but it needs repeating. Brexit has driven all of you absolutely batshit insane. Any site that routinely has posters calling others xenophobes, racists, traitors, quislings and the like is on a downwards spiral.
    It's a strange day indeed when I think I'm the sanest person in the room.

    You need to become a racist, xenophobic, quisling traitor and blend in with the rest of us.

    You know you want to .....
    I don't think anyone with a foreign flag on their avatar should even get to post on here (and I bet those are Italian shoes, if you could believe such a thing). True Brits English only!
    But it is not foreign to me (perspective is a wonderful thing)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289

    Could somebody please post-some betting tips for a change?

    I'll start the ball rolling. Republicans to hold the House at 7/4 on Ladbrokes.

    RCP showing the Dems with only a 5 seat lead (205-200) in the House and polling of the swing seats looking more favourable to the Republicans in recent days. Plus should be some positive economic data just before the election.

    I'll take 538 over RCP
    Even after 2016 :) ?

    Thanks for all the tips, will take a look at the May and Castro ones, although I think Trump will win in 2020...
    Nate Silver was pretty clear throughout the runup to 2016 on 538 that there was a path for a Trump victory, and indeed had a big spat with another outlet (Huff Post?) about that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,587

    Nigelb said:

    FPT: Mr. rkrkrk is closest with Hephaestus.

    The answer is Vulcan. Vulcanisation was (maybe still is) used on natural rubber to make car tyres.

    Who, in Greek terms, was Saturn named after?

    ok

    when Fritgern crossed the Danube in 376 did he bring more or less...
    Fewer !!
    I rate grammar nazis lower than posters who use xenophobe, racist, traitor or quisling!!!
    Grammar traitor !
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Nigelb said:

    FPT: Mr. rkrkrk is closest with Hephaestus.

    The answer is Vulcan. Vulcanisation was (maybe still is) used on natural rubber to make car tyres.

    Who, in Greek terms, was Saturn named after?

    ok

    when Fritgern crossed the Danube in 376 did he bring more or less...
    Fewer !!
    I rate grammar nazis lower than posters who use xenophobe, racist, traitor or quisling!!!
    Do grammar nazis come above or below politicians?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Could somebody please post-some betting tips for a change?

    I'll start the ball rolling. Republicans to hold the House at 7/4 on Ladbrokes.

    RCP showing the Dems with only a 5 seat lead (205-200) in the House and polling of the swing seats looking more favourable to the Republicans in recent days. Plus should be some positive economic data just before the election.

    I'll take 538 over RCP
    Even after 2016 :) ?

    Thanks for all the tips, will take a look at the May and Castro ones, although I think Trump will win in 2020...
    538 wasn't nearly as bad as perceived in 2016. Well they were when Trump was in the primaries, badly underestimating him. But at the general they treated him like any other candidate and gave him | 25% chance iirc. Given the narrowness of his win and the additional west coast tilt to the Dems (Which doesn't matter for ECVs) they were the best modellers, except a certain former poster here.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289

    Nigelb said:

    FPT: Mr. rkrkrk is closest with Hephaestus.

    The answer is Vulcan. Vulcanisation was (maybe still is) used on natural rubber to make car tyres.

    Who, in Greek terms, was Saturn named after?

    ok

    when Fritgern crossed the Danube in 376 did he bring more or less...
    Fewer !!
    I rate grammar nazis lower than posters who use xenophobe, racist, traitor or quisling!!!

    Did you mean below rather than lower? :wink:
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited October 2018

    Anorak said:

    I've said it before, but it needs repeating. Brexit has driven all of you absolutely batshit insane. Any site that routinely has posters calling others xenophobes, racists, traitors, quislings and the like is on a downwards spiral.
    It's a strange day indeed when I think I'm the sanest person in the room.

    You need to become a racist, xenophobic, quisling traitor and blend in with the rest of us.

    You know you want to .....
    I don't think anyone with a foreign flag on their avatar should even get to post on here (and I bet those are Italian shoes, if you could believe such a thing). True Brits English only!
    But it is not foreign to me (perspective is a wonderful thing)
    Absolutely.

    Everyone should have a voice. It can be ignored, of course, or ridiculed, but it should not be denied.

    [awaits accusations of virtue signalling]
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Could somebody please post-some betting tips for a change?

    I'll start the ball rolling. Republicans to hold the House at 7/4 on Ladbrokes.

    RCP showing the Dems with only a 5 seat lead (205-200) in the House and polling of the swing seats looking more favourable to the Republicans in recent days. Plus should be some positive economic data just before the election.

    I'll take 538 over RCP
    Even after 2016 :) ?

    Thanks for all the tips, will take a look at the May and Castro ones, although I think Trump will win in 2020...
    Nate Silver was pretty clear throughout the runup to 2016 on 538 that there was a path for a Trump victory, and indeed had a big spat with another outlet (Huff Post?) about that.
    Sam Wang (Princeton model) really shit the bed in 2016, giving Clinton 99% chance or something. 538 was fine.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    edited October 2018
    This has been puzzling me since @Alanbrooke’s excellent series of articles.

    - The GFA has reasonably successfully managed to straddle the fact that a significant proportion of people in NI consider themselves Irish and and another equally significant proportion consider themselves British.

    - No-one sane wants to upset that and return to violence.

    - NI voted to Remain in the EU.

    - NI is currently heavily subsidised by the UK and were it to reunite with Ireland this would impose a significant cost on the latter.

    - No-one wants a hard border.

    - The majority in NI do not want to lose their links to Britain.

    - The EU wants a backstop.

    - Britain wants an orderly exit from the EU.

    Why then isn’t some form of shared sovereignty over NI a possible way forward? NI has never been a part of Britain in the same way that Dorset has been. Britain could continue to help subsidise NI - maybe a part of the the £39 billion could be used. The multiple identities of the different communities would be preserved. The hard border issue would be solved. NI would still vote for MPs to represent their interests in the Commons and some other forum could be used (the Council of Ireland?) to ensure that NI’s interests in relation to the CU/SM could be represented. Britain would get its withdrawal treaty.

    Maybe over time there would be change eg reunification. Or a different relationship between Britain and the EU, possibly rejoining or associate membership, who knows? Maybe NI’s membership of the SM might form a backdoor way for Britain to contribute usefully - but on the quiet - to EU legislation. But one possible source of toxic flare up would be avoided

    I am probably missing something obvious. But why shouldn’t the special status of NI be used as a stepping stone to a solution rather than as a boulder standing in the way of success?
  • Can’t MI6 do a false flag scandal on Andrew Bridgen implicating Bridgen felates goats whilst wearing a mask of Jacques Delors.
  • Nigelb said:

    FPT: Mr. rkrkrk is closest with Hephaestus.

    The answer is Vulcan. Vulcanisation was (maybe still is) used on natural rubber to make car tyres.

    Who, in Greek terms, was Saturn named after?

    ok

    when Fritgern crossed the Danube in 376 did he bring more or less...
    Fewer !!
    I rate grammar nazis lower than posters who use xenophobe, racist, traitor or quisling!!!

    Did you mean below rather than lower? :wink:
    Goddamn Remoaner EUSSR Traitor Scum!

    Damn, that felt good.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Could somebody please post-some betting tips for a change?

    I'll start the ball rolling. Republicans to hold the House at 7/4 on Ladbrokes.

    RCP showing the Dems with only a 5 seat lead (205-200) in the House and polling of the swing seats looking more favourable to the Republicans in recent days. Plus should be some positive economic data just before the election.

    I'll take 538 over RCP
    Even after 2016 :) ?

    Thanks for all the tips, will take a look at the May and Castro ones, although I think Trump will win in 2020...
    538 wasn't nearly as bad as perceived in 2016. Well they were when Trump was in the primaries, badly underestimating him. But at the general they treated him like any other candidate and gave him | 25% chance iirc. Given the narrowness of his win and the additional west coast tilt to the Dems (Which doesn't matter for ECVs) they were the best modellers, except a certain former poster here.
    Pulpstar - as you will recall, 538's numerical data on Trump during the Republican primaries was fine. Their analysis simply didn't match. You could look at their roadmaps (as we both did) and see Trump's prospects were a lot more certain than they appeared.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289
    edited October 2018

    The curse of the new thread.. FPT

    Understandably most of the commentary surrounding the question of the timing of Theresa May's exit from Number Ten has focused on the Brexit negotiations and the perception that her leadership is a drag on Conservative electoral prospects. The imminent budget may also become a factor.

    The expectation is that Hammond will explain where he is finding £20bn for the NHS and that this would include tax increases. Tax increases that are not popular on the backbenches.

    The better than expected public borrowing figures reduce the necessity for tax rises only enough to make them more of a problem to reconcile with ideological opponents. However, quite apart from the continuing deficit there is a political imperative to increase taxes to fund increased NHS spending which will put May and Hammond on a collision course with their own MPs.

    There is no easily definable upper limit to NHS spending. This does not mean one should never increase NHS spending, but it does mean there is always a case for increasing it further so the political challenge for the Tories is to win the argument that they are spending as much as is reasonably possible on the NHS.

    A tax increase that people will notice is the best way to make that argument. It says, "We have increased taxes to fund the NHS as much as possible, but there's not even a moderately difficult source of money to fund further increases, even though we wish it were otherwise."

    Without a noticeable tax increase a more persuasive argument could be, "Even the Tories have admitted the NHS needs more money, but they won't give it the money it deserves because they don't really want to, even though it wouldn't be difficult."

    This is the political case for an increase in employee National Insurance contributions in the coming budget. Might it be the final straw for some of May's critics?

    Two points:

    Tax increases need to be targeted at wealth not income.

    "There is no easily definable upper limit to NHS spending." That's true but a commitment to spend as a proportion of GDP based on, say a G8 average might make sense and (slightly) de-politicise it.
  • Could somebody please post-some betting tips for a change?

    I'll start the ball rolling. Republicans to hold the House at 7/4 on Ladbrokes.

    RCP showing the Dems with only a 5 seat lead (205-200) in the House and polling of the swing seats looking more favourable to the Republicans in recent days. Plus should be some positive economic data just before the election.

    I'll take 538 over RCP
    Even after 2016 :) ?

    Thanks for all the tips, will take a look at the May and Castro ones, although I think Trump will win in 2020...
    Nate Silver was pretty clear throughout the runup to 2016 on 538 that there was a path for a Trump victory, and indeed had a big spat with another outlet (Huff Post?) about that.
    He did have a path for victory but it was marginal and he had written off Trump's chances in much the same way as most people did. Which is why you could get 6/1 for Trump on the day of the election.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289

    Nigelb said:

    FPT: Mr. rkrkrk is closest with Hephaestus.

    The answer is Vulcan. Vulcanisation was (maybe still is) used on natural rubber to make car tyres.

    Who, in Greek terms, was Saturn named after?

    ok

    when Fritgern crossed the Danube in 376 did he bring more or less...
    Fewer !!
    I rate grammar nazis lower than posters who use xenophobe, racist, traitor or quisling!!!

    Did you mean below rather than lower? :wink:
    Goddamn Remoaner EUSSR Traitor Scum!

    Damn, that felt good.
    Glad to be of assistance. I'll send through my therapist bill to you.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547
    Cyclefree said:

    This has been puzzling me since @Alanbrooke’s excellent series of articles.

    - The GFA has reasonably successfully managed to straddle the fact that a significant proportion of people in NI consider themselves Irish and and another equally significant proportion consider themselves British.

    - No-one sane wants to upset that and return to violence.

    - NI voted to Remain in the EU.

    - NI is currently heavily subsidised by the UK and were it to reunite with Ireland this would impose a significant cost on the latter.

    - No-one wants a hard border.

    - The majority in NI do not want to lose their links to Britain.

    - The EU wants a backstop.

    - Britain wants an orderly exit from the EU.

    Why then isn’t some form of shared sovereignty over NI a possible way forward? NI has never been a part of Britain in the same way that Dorset has been. Britain could continue to help subsidise NI - maybe a part of the the £39 billion could be used. The multiple identities of the different communities would be preserved. The hard border issue would be solved. NI would still vote for MPs to represent their interests in the Commons and some other forum could be used (the Council of Ireland?) to ensure that NI’s interests in relation to the CU/SM could be represented. Britain would get its withdrawal treaty.

    Maybe over time there would be change eg reunification. Or a different relationship between Britain and the EU, possibly rejoining or associate membership, who knows? Maybe NI’s membership of the SM might form a backdoor way for Britain to contribute usefully - but on the quiet - to EU legislation. But one possible source of toxic flare up would be avoided

    I am probably missing something obvious. But why shouldn’t the special status of NI be used as a stepping stone to a solution rather than as a boulder standing in the way of success?

    You are missing something obvious.

    The DUP.
  • Clare Perry.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    edited October 2018
    Cyclefree said:

    This has been puzzling me since @Alanbrooke’s excellent series of articles.

    - The GFA has reasonably successfully managed to straddle the fact that a significant proportion of people in NI consider themselves Irish and and another equally significant proportion consider themselves British.

    - No-one sane wants to upset that and return to violence.

    - NI voted to Remain in the EU.

    - NI is currently heavily subsidised by the UK and were it to reunite with Ireland this would impose a significant cost on the latter.

    - No-one wants a hard border.

    - The majority in NI do not want to lose their links to Britain.

    - The EU wants a backstop.

    - Britain wants an orderly exit from the EU.

    Why then isn’t some form of shared sovereignty over NI a possible way forward? NI has never been a part of Britain in the same way that Dorset has been. Britain could continue to help subsidise NI - maybe a part of the the £39 billion could be used. The multiple identities of the different communities would be preserved. The hard border issue would be solved. NI would still vote for MPs to represent their interests in the Commons and some other forum could be used (the Council of Ireland?) to ensure that NI’s interests in relation to the CU/SM could be represented. Britain would get its withdrawal treaty.

    Maybe over time there would be change eg reunification. Or a different relationship between Britain and the EU, possibly rejoining or associate membership, who knows? Maybe NI’s membership of the SM might form a backdoor way for Britain to contribute usefully - but on the quiet - to EU legislation. But one possible source of toxic flare up would be avoided

    I am probably missing something obvious. But why shouldn’t the special status of NI be used as a stepping stone to a solution rather than as a boulder standing in the way of success?

    I still cant get the politicians there are so brain dead as to not use the ambiguity of nationality to negotiate all sorts of special tax and status arrangements,

    Unfortunately SF and the DUP arent in the business of making their electors better off, and the moderate centre cant get its act together.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289
    Cyclefree said:

    This has been puzzling me since @Alanbrooke’s excellent series of articles.

    - The GFA has reasonably successfully managed to straddle the fact that a significant proportion of people in NI consider themselves Irish and and another equally significant proportion consider themselves British.

    - No-one sane wants to upset that and return to violence.

    - NI voted to Remain in the EU.

    - NI is currently heavily subsidised by the UK and were it to reunite with Ireland this would impose a significant cost on the latter.

    - No-one wants a hard border.

    - The majority in NI do not want to lose their links to Britain.

    - The EU wants a backstop.

    - Britain wants an orderly exit from the EU.

    Why then isn’t some form of shared sovereignty over NI a possible way forward? NI has never been a part of Britain in the same way that Dorset has been. Britain could continue to help subsidise NI - maybe a part of the the £39 billion could be used. The multiple identities of the different communities would be preserved. The hard border issue would be solved. NI would still vote for MPs to represent their interests in the Commons and some other forum could be used (the Council of Ireland?) to ensure that NI’s interests in relation to the CU/SM could be represented. Britain would get its withdrawal treaty.

    Maybe over time there would be change eg reunification. Or a different relationship between Britain and the EU, possibly rejoining or associate membership, who knows? Maybe NI’s membership of the SM might form a backdoor way for Britain to contribute usefully - but on the quiet - to EU legislation. But one possible source of toxic flare up would be avoided

    I am probably missing something obvious. But why shouldn’t the special status of NI be used as a stepping stone to a solution rather than as a boulder standing in the way of success?

    +1

    You probably are missing something but it does sound like a good idea to me (then again I live in Dorset!)
  • Clare Perry.
    Correct.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Could somebody please post-some betting tips for a change?

    I'll start the ball rolling. Republicans to hold the House at 7/4 on Ladbrokes.

    RCP showing the Dems with only a 5 seat lead (205-200) in the House and polling of the swing seats looking more favourable to the Republicans in recent days. Plus should be some positive economic data just before the election.

    I'll take 538 over RCP
    Even after 2016 :) ?

    Thanks for all the tips, will take a look at the May and Castro ones, although I think Trump will win in 2020...
    Nate Silver was pretty clear throughout the runup to 2016 on 538 that there was a path for a Trump victory, and indeed had a big spat with another outlet (Huff Post?) about that.
    He did have a path for victory but it was marginal and he had written off Trump's chances in much the same way as most people did. Which is why you could get 6/1 for Trump on the day of the election.
    If you were following 538's model properly then you should have been all over 6-1 Trump like a rash.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289

    Clare Perry.
    Is Peter Mannion MP habitually taking downskirt photos?
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit!

    Betrayal! Betrayal! Betrayal! Betrayal! Betrayal! Betrayal! Betrayal! Betrayal! Betrayal! Betrayal!
  • I've said it before, but it needs repeating. Brexit has driven all of you absolutely batshit insane. Any site that routinely has posters calling others xenophobes, racists, traitors, quislings and the like is on a downwards spiral.
    It's a strange day indeed when I think I'm the sanest person in the room.

    I share your view and have long since called out the unnecessary use of language and as well as your examples, liars, fools, and idiots are also self defeating.

    Vigorous debate is an essential ingredient of this forum but the use of intemperate, almost bullying language, often defeats the essence of the user's actual arguments that at times are very well made
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Cyclefree said:

    This has been puzzling me since @Alanbrooke’s excellent series of articles.

    - The GFA has reasonably successfully managed to straddle the fact that a significant proportion of people in NI consider themselves Irish and and another equally significant proportion consider themselves British.

    - No-one sane wants to upset that and return to violence.

    - NI voted to Remain in the EU.

    - NI is currently heavily subsidised by the UK and were it to reunite with Ireland this would impose a significant cost on the latter.

    - No-one wants a hard border.

    - The majority in NI do not want to lose their links to Britain.

    - The EU wants a backstop.

    - Britain wants an orderly exit from the EU.

    Why then isn’t some form of shared sovereignty over NI a possible way forward? NI has never been a part of Britain in the same way that Dorset has been. Britain could continue to help subsidise NI - maybe a part of the the £39 billion could be used. The multiple identities of the different communities would be preserved. The hard border issue would be solved. NI would still vote for MPs to represent their interests in the Commons and some other forum could be used (the Council of Ireland?) to ensure that NI’s interests in relation to the CU/SM could be represented. Britain would get its withdrawal treaty.

    Maybe over time there would be change eg reunification. Or a different relationship between Britain and the EU, possibly rejoining or associate membership, who knows? Maybe NI’s membership of the SM might form a backdoor way for Britain to contribute usefully - but on the quiet - to EU legislation. But one possible source of toxic flare up would be avoided

    I am probably missing something obvious. But why shouldn’t the special status of NI be used as a stepping stone to a solution rather than as a boulder standing in the way of success?

    +1

    You probably are missing something but it does sound like a good idea to me (then again I live in Dorset!)
    I think the DUP are the sticking point.
  • Clare Perry.
    Is Peter Mannion MP habitually taking downskirt photos?
    We can probably get him sacked.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,587
    Cyclefree said:

    This has been puzzling me since @Alanbrooke’s excellent series of articles.

    - The GFA has reasonably successfully managed to straddle the fact that a significant proportion of people in NI consider themselves Irish and and another equally significant proportion consider themselves British.

    - No-one sane wants to upset that and return to violence.

    - NI voted to Remain in the EU.

    - NI is currently heavily subsidised by the UK and were it to reunite with Ireland this would impose a significant cost on the latter.

    - No-one wants a hard border.

    - The majority in NI do not want to lose their links to Britain.

    - The EU wants a backstop.

    - Britain wants an orderly exit from the EU.

    Why then isn’t some form of shared sovereignty over NI a possible way forward? NI has never been a part of Britain in the same way that Dorset has been. Britain could continue to help subsidise NI - maybe a part of the the £39 billion could be used. The multiple identities of the different communities would be preserved. The hard border issue would be solved. NI would still vote for MPs to represent their interests in the Commons and some other forum could be used (the Council of Ireland?) to ensure that NI’s interests in relation to the CU/SM could be represented. Britain would get its withdrawal treaty.

    Maybe over time there would be change eg reunification. Or a different relationship between Britain and the EU, possibly rejoining or associate membership, who knows? Maybe NI’s membership of the SM might form a backdoor way for Britain to contribute usefully - but on the quiet - to EU legislation. But one possible source of toxic flare up would be avoided

    I am probably missing something obvious. But why shouldn’t the special status of NI be used as a stepping stone to a solution rather than as a boulder standing in the way of success?

    Because a handful of unionist MPs hold the government's survival in their hands.
  • He does his cause no good whatsoever.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289

    Could somebody please post-some betting tips for a change?

    I'll start the ball rolling. Republicans to hold the House at 7/4 on Ladbrokes.

    RCP showing the Dems with only a 5 seat lead (205-200) in the House and polling of the swing seats looking more favourable to the Republicans in recent days. Plus should be some positive economic data just before the election.

    I'll take 538 over RCP
    Even after 2016 :) ?

    Thanks for all the tips, will take a look at the May and Castro ones, although I think Trump will win in 2020...
    Nate Silver was pretty clear throughout the runup to 2016 on 538 that there was a path for a Trump victory, and indeed had a big spat with another outlet (Huff Post?) about that.
    He did have a path for victory but it was marginal and he had written off Trump's chances in much the same way as most people did. Which is why you could get 6/1 for Trump on the day of the election.
    When I was working as a programme manager I was often asked by senior directors what I thought the chances of a specific event occurring (a test failing, an upgrade being successful etc.) It never ceased to amaze me how flumoxed they were whenever the less likely outcome transpired. ("But you said there was a 90% chance of success!" "Er, yes - have you ever met 10%?")
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    The other amusing thing about US elections is just how awful at counting they are. California takes months, and I remember about 30,000 votes being 'found' in Philly (So heavily Dem) about 3 days after the election.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Cyclefree said:

    This has been puzzling me since @Alanbrooke’s excellent series of articles.

    - The GFA has reasonably successfully managed to straddle the fact that a significant proportion of people in NI consider themselves Irish and and another equally significant proportion consider themselves British.

    - No-one sane wants to upset that and return to violence.

    - NI voted to Remain in the EU.

    - NI is currently heavily subsidised by the UK and were it to reunite with Ireland this would impose a significant cost on the latter.

    - No-one wants a hard border.

    - The majority in NI do not want to lose their links to Britain.

    - The EU wants a backstop.

    - Britain wants an orderly exit from the EU.

    Why then isn’t some form of shared sovereignty over NI a possible way forward? NI has never been a part of Britain in the same way that Dorset has been. Britain could continue to help subsidise NI - maybe a part of the the £39 billion could be used. The multiple identities of the different communities would be preserved. The hard border issue would be solved. NI would still vote for MPs to represent their interests in the Commons and some other forum could be used (the Council of Ireland?) to ensure that NI’s interests in relation to the CU/SM could be represented. Britain would get its withdrawal treaty.

    Maybe over time there would be change eg reunification. Or a different relationship between Britain and the EU, possibly rejoining or associate membership, who knows? Maybe NI’s membership of the SM might form a backdoor way for Britain to contribute usefully - but on the quiet - to EU legislation. But one possible source of toxic flare up would be avoided

    I am probably missing something obvious. But why shouldn’t the special status of NI be used as a stepping stone to a solution rather than as a boulder standing in the way of success?

    You are missing something obvious.

    The DUP.
    Tell them they are so special because they will be able to strut about on and influence two poltical stages: the British and the Irish/EU one. Flattery and gold. The DUP are human after all - and not immune to such things, as we have seen.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Cyclefree said:

    This has been puzzling me since @Alanbrooke’s excellent series of articles.

    - The GFA has reasonably successfully managed to straddle the fact that a significant proportion of people in NI consider themselves Irish and and another equally significant proportion consider themselves British.

    - No-one sane wants to upset that and return to violence.

    - NI voted to Remain in the EU.

    - NI is currently heavily subsidised by the UK and were it to reunite with Ireland this would impose a significant cost on the latter.

    - No-one wants a hard border.

    - The majority in NI do not want to lose their links to Britain.

    - The EU wants a backstop.

    - Britain wants an orderly exit from the EU.

    Why then isn’t some form of shared sovereignty over NI a possible way forward? NI has never been a part of Britain in the same way that Dorset has been. Britain could continue to help subsidise NI - maybe a part of the the £39 billion could be used. The multiple identities of the different communities would be preserved. The hard border issue would be solved. NI would still vote for MPs to represent their interests in the Commons and some other forum could be used (the Council of Ireland?) to ensure that NI’s interests in relation to the CU/SM could be represented. Britain would get its withdrawal treaty.

    Maybe over time there would be change eg reunification. Or a different relationship between Britain and the EU, possibly rejoining or associate membership, who knows? Maybe NI’s membership of the SM might form a backdoor way for Britain to contribute usefully - but on the quiet - to EU legislation. But one possible source of toxic flare up would be avoided

    I am probably missing something obvious. But why shouldn’t the special status of NI be used as a stepping stone to a solution rather than as a boulder standing in the way of success?

    +1

    You probably are missing something but it does sound like a good idea to me (then again I live in Dorset!)
    I think the DUP are the sticking point.
    no theyre just a easy scapegoat because you dont like them. I dont like them either but I wouldnt blame all of NIs problems on them.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Apologies for tardy replies, unexpectedly had to go AFK.

    Mrs C, correct, but still need the name.

    Mr. Brooke, Fritigern's the name of one of the protagonists in my excellent book Journey to Altmortis, which you should definitely buy.fr

    Mr. Cooke, Cronos is correct :)
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit! Brexit!

    Betrayal! Betrayal! Betrayal! Betrayal! Betrayal! Betrayal! Betrayal! Betrayal! Betrayal! Betrayal!
    Crazy! Crazy! Crazy! Crazy! Crazy! Crazy! Crazy! Crazy! Crazy! Crazy! Crazy!

    and on that note I shall go and do some other stuff for a while
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Clare Perry.
    Doesn’t she own a mirror? The shoes are awful. So are the socks. And those trousers! Individually they are bad. Together, a horror.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,587

    FPT: Mr. rkrkrk is closest with Hephaestus.

    The answer is Vulcan. Vulcanisation was (maybe still is) used on natural rubber to make car tyres.

    Who, in Greek terms, was Saturn named after?

    ok

    when Fritgern crossed the Danube in 376 did he bring more or less Gothic warriors....
    Surely they were fully patriotic Goth patriots ?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    He does his cause no good whatsoever.
    Well given No 10 have supposedly given Brady decoy letters in order to revoke them should the 48 be reached anything is possible...

    These are crazy times! :D
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    This has been puzzling me since @Alanbrooke’s excellent series of articles.

    - The GFA has reasonably successfully managed to straddle the fact that a significant proportion of people in NI consider themselves Irish and and another equally significant proportion consider themselves British.

    - No-one sane wants to upset that and return to violence.

    - NI voted to Remain in the EU.

    - NI is currently heavily subsidised by the UK and were it to reunite with Ireland this would impose a significant cost on the latter.

    - No-one wants a hard border.

    - The majority in NI do not want to lose their links to Britain.

    - The EU wants a backstop.

    - Britain wants an orderly exit from the EU.

    Why then isn’t some form of shared sovereignty over NI a possible way forward? NI has never been a part of Britain in the same way that Dorset has been. Britain could continue to help subsidise NI - maybe a part of the the £39 billion could be used. The multiple identities of the different communities would be preserved. The hard border issue would be solved. NI would still vote for MPs to represent their interests in the Commons and some other forum could be used (the Council of Ireland?) to ensure that NI’s interests in relation to the CU/SM could be represented. Britain would get its withdrawal treaty.

    Maybe over time there would be change eg reunification. Or a different relationship between Britain and the EU, possibly rejoining or associate membership, who knows? Maybe NI’s membership of the SM might form a backdoor way for Britain to contribute usefully - but on the quiet - to EU legislation. But one possible source of toxic flare up would be avoided

    I am probably missing something obvious. But why shouldn’t the special status of NI be used as a stepping stone to a solution rather than as a boulder standing in the way of success?

    Because a handful of unionist MPs hold the government's survival in their hands.
    the government holds its own fate in its hand. The Conservatives cant agree among themselves thats hardly a DUP issue. You might as well says its the LDs fault.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Nigelb said:

    FPT: Mr. rkrkrk is closest with Hephaestus.

    The answer is Vulcan. Vulcanisation was (maybe still is) used on natural rubber to make car tyres.

    Who, in Greek terms, was Saturn named after?

    ok

    when Fritgern crossed the Danube in 376 did he bring more or less Gothic warriors....
    Surely they were fully patriotic Goth patriots ?
    eventually, yes
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    This has been puzzling me since @Alanbrooke’s excellent series of articles.

    - The GFA has reasonably successfully managed to straddle the fact that a significant proportion of people in NI consider themselves Irish and and another equally significant proportion consider themselves British.

    - No-one sane wants to upset that and return to violence.

    - NI voted to Remain in the EU.

    - NI is currently heavily subsidised by the UK and were it to reunite with Ireland this would impose a significant cost on the latter.

    - No-one wants a hard border.

    - The majority in NI do not want to lose their links to Britain.

    - The EU wants a backstop.

    - Britain wants an orderly exit from the EU.

    Why then isn’t some form of shared sovereignty over NI a possible way forward? NI has never been a part of Britain in the same way that Dorset has been. Britain could continue to help subsidise NI - maybe a part of the the £39 billion could be used. The multiple identities of the different communities would be preserved. The hard border issue would be solved. NI would still vote for MPs to represent their interests in the Commons and some other forum could be used (the Council of Ireland?) to ensure that NI’s interests in relation to the CU/SM could be represented. Britain would get its withdrawal treaty.

    Maybe over time there would be change eg reunification. Or a different relationship between Britain and the EU, possibly rejoining or associate membership, who knows? Maybe NI’s membership of the SM might form a backdoor way for Britain to contribute usefully - but on the quiet - to EU legislation. But one possible source of toxic flare up would be avoided

    I am probably missing something obvious. But why shouldn’t the special status of NI be used as a stepping stone to a solution rather than as a boulder standing in the way of success?

    Because a handful of unionist MPs hold the government's survival in their hands.
    the government holds its own fate in its hand. The Conservatives cant agree among themselves thats hardly a DUP issue. You might as well says its the LDs fault.
    Anyway I need to do some paying work not give the government free advice on political strategy.

    Till later.
  • GIN1138 said:

    He does his cause no good whatsoever.
    Well given No 10 have supposedly given Brady decoy letters in order to revoke them should the 48 be reached anything is possible...

    These are crazy times! :D
    Don't believe all you read in the papers or on twitter.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    GIN1138 said:

    He does his cause no good whatsoever.
    Well given No 10 have supposedly given Brady decoy letters in order to revoke them should the 48 be reached anything is possible...

    These are crazy times! :D
    Don't believe all you read in the papers or on twitter.
    I think that may have been a bluff to smoke out the true number of letters perhaps in.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,883

    Incidentally, talking about ancient languages and mythologies in the present, some time ago I stumbled on the fact that "mortgage" means "dead hand".

    Which I find quite evocative.

    "Mort Gage" is Old French for "Dead Pledge". ie the loan is secured on the land itself rather than the crops which could be grown on it as was the custom previously. The adjectif is before the nom for reasons of emphatic intensification.

    This is like being on QI except we aren't all massive c---s.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited October 2018


    He did have a path for victory but it was marginal and he had written off Trump's chances in much the same way as most people did.

    His final figures were 70/30 iirc. That wasn't taking into account the last minute Comey intervention either, which was too late to appear in polling.

    Edit: found it (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/). It was 71.4/28.6, with an estimated lead for Clinton of 3.6%. The result was what, 2.2% lead?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,883
    Nigelb said:

    FPT: Mr. rkrkrk is closest with Hephaestus.

    The answer is Vulcan. Vulcanisation was (maybe still is) used on natural rubber to make car tyres.

    Who, in Greek terms, was Saturn named after?

    ok

    when Fritgern crossed the Danube in 376 did he bring more or less Gothic warriors....
    Surely they were fully patriotic Goth patriots ?
    They aren't patriots until CR has satisfactorily audited their flags.
  • Dura_Ace said:


    This is like being on QI except we aren't all massive c---s.

    That's PB's promotional slogan sorted.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,468
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    FPT: Mr. rkrkrk is closest with Hephaestus.

    The answer is Vulcan. Vulcanisation was (maybe still is) used on natural rubber to make car tyres.

    Who, in Greek terms, was Saturn named after?

    ok

    when Fritgern crossed the Danube in 376 did he bring more or less Gothic warriors....
    Surely they were fully patriotic Goth patriots ?
    They aren't patriots until CR has satisfactorily audited their flags.
    :)
  • Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    He does his cause no good whatsoever.
    Well given No 10 have supposedly given Brady decoy letters in order to revoke them should the 48 be reached anything is possible...

    These are crazy times! :D
    Don't believe all you read in the papers or on twitter.
    I think that may have been a bluff to smoke out the true number of letters perhaps in.
    Good point made on Sky.

    If TM is replaced how does anyone else do any better.

    Same issues, same contraditions, same parliamentary arithmetic, same factions, same logjams
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,468

    Dura_Ace said:


    This is like being on QI except we aren't all massive c---s.

    That's PB's promotional slogan sorted.
    :)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited October 2018
    Couple of interesting points behind OGH chart:

    i) Despite the "Disaster at Salzburg" there has been little shift in perception over whether anyone else could do better - if anything a slight drift away from the notion - (diff vs early Sept)

    May getting good deal: 3 (-)
    May bad deal, other leader better: 25 (-2)
    May bad deal other leader no different: 45 (+3)

    ii) Somewhat surprisingly, there is not the level of party political polarisation you might expect to see:

    May good/May bad, other leader better/May bad, other leader no different:

    OA: 3 / 25 / 45
    Con: 5 / 23 / 50
    Lab: 1 / 30 / 46

    iii) Similarly, while more Leave voters than Remain voters think someone else could do better a plurality still think no one else could:

    May good/May bad, other leader better/May bad, other leader no different:

    OA: 3 / 25 / 45
    Remain: 2 / 19 / 56
    Leave: 4 / 32 / 41

    The country is united! Mrs May is getting a bad deal, and no one could do better.

    Which suggests the country may not see Mrs May as the single variable in all this....

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/f7un4iy29l/Times_181019_Trackers.pdf
  • Couple of interesting points behind OGH chart:

    i) Despite the "Disaster at Salzburg" there has been little shift in perception over whether anyone else could do better - if anything a slight drift away from the notion - (diff vs early Sept)

    May getting good deal: 3 (-)
    May bad deal, other leader better: 25 (-2)
    May bad deal other leader no different: 45 (+3)

    ii) Somewhat surprisingly, there is not the level of party political polarisation you might expect to see:

    May good/May bad, other leader better/May bad, other leader no different:

    OA: 3 / 25 / 45
    Con: 5 / 23 / 50
    Lab: 1 / 30 / 46

    iii) Similarly, while more Leave voters than Remain voters think someone else could do better a plurality still think no one else could:

    May good/May bad, other leader better/May bad, other leader no different:

    OA: 3 / 25 / 45
    Remain: 2 / 19 / 56
    Leave: 4 / 32 / 41

    The country is united! Mrs May is getting a bad deal, and no one could do better.

    Which suggests the country may not see Mrs May as the single variable in all this....

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/f7un4iy29l/Times_181019_Trackers.pdf

    Just done a you gov poll on brexit
  • A delicious comment this morning from Guy Verhofstadt, European Parliament's Brexit Co-ordinator, refuting La May's contention that Brexit negotiations were 95% settled, saying "Britain has always had difficulties with the metric system".
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Pulpstar said:

    Could somebody please post-some betting tips for a change?

    I'll start the ball rolling. Republicans to hold the House at 7/4 on Ladbrokes.

    RCP showing the Dems with only a 5 seat lead (205-200) in the House and polling of the swing seats looking more favourable to the Republicans in recent days. Plus should be some positive economic data just before the election.

    I'll take 538 over RCP
    Even after 2016 :) ?

    Thanks for all the tips, will take a look at the May and Castro ones, although I think Trump will win in 2020...
    538 wasn't nearly as bad as perceived in 2016. Well they were when Trump was in the primaries, badly underestimating him. But at the general they treated him like any other candidate and gave him | 25% chance iirc. Given the narrowness of his win and the additional west coast tilt to the Dems (Which doesn't matter for ECVs) they were the best modellers, except a certain former poster here.
    Plato may have posted more Trump propaganda than an entire Russian troll farm but she still predicted a Clinton victory.
  • A delicious comment this morning from Guy Verhofstadt, European Parliament's Brexit Co-ordinator, refuting La May's contention that Brexit negotiations were 95% settled, saying "Britain has always had difficulties with the metric system".

    They do not help themselves
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    Could somebody please post-some betting tips for a change?

    I'll start the ball rolling. Republicans to hold the House at 7/4 on Ladbrokes.

    RCP showing the Dems with only a 5 seat lead (205-200) in the House and polling of the swing seats looking more favourable to the Republicans in recent days. Plus should be some positive economic data just before the election.

    If you want something to sit down with, you can look at Ireland's election on Friday. Clearly Higgins will be re-appointed, but there are markets on how much and how the other candidates fare.
    I'm heavily on Higgins at 1/5 with Paddy Power. I thought they were very generous odds at the time. I won't call it "free money" but close to it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,587

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    This has been puzzling me since @Alanbrooke’s excellent series of articles.

    - The GFA has reasonably successfully managed to straddle the fact that a significant proportion of people in NI consider themselves Irish and and another equally significant proportion consider themselves British.

    - No-one sane wants to upset that and return to violence.

    - NI voted to Remain in the EU.

    - NI is currently heavily subsidised by the UK and were it to reunite with Ireland this would impose a significant cost on the latter.

    - No-one wants a hard border.

    - The majority in NI do not want to lose their links to Britain.

    - The EU wants a backstop.

    - Britain wants an orderly exit from the EU.

    Why then isn’t some form of shared sovereignty over NI a possible way forward? NI has never been a part of Britain in the same way that Dorset has been. Britain could continue to help subsidise NI - maybe a part of the the £39 billion could be used. The multiple identities of the different communities would be preserved. The hard border issue would be solved. NI would still vote for MPs to represent their interests in the Commons and some other forum could be used (the Council of Ireland?) to ensure that NI’s interests in relation to the CU/SM could be represented. Britain would get its withdrawal treaty.

    Maybe over time there would be change eg reunification. Or a different relationship between Britain and the EU, possibly rejoining or associate membership, who knows? Maybe NI’s membership of the SM might form a backdoor way for Britain to contribute usefully - but on the quiet - to EU legislation. But one possible source of toxic flare up would be avoided

    I am probably missing something obvious. But why shouldn’t the special status of NI be used as a stepping stone to a solution rather than as a boulder standing in the way of success?

    Because a handful of unionist MPs hold the government's survival in their hands.
    the government holds its own fate in its hand. The Conservatives cant agree among themselves thats hardly a DUP issue. You might as well says its the LDs fault.
    Are you really suggesting that May wouldn't have thrown the Unionists under the bus if she had a working majority ?
    I'm not apportioning blame (if anything, it's May's fault for holding her snap election), but the parliamentary arithmetic undoubtedly means that MPs who might otherwise have been brushed aside have more than a little influence.
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